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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
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7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
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The Junior Achievement League
2006-07-06 09:19
by Jon Weisman

As you know by now, interleague play stripped the National League down to its skivvies. What's left is one team on pace for 90 victories or more:

96 New York Mets
88 St. Louis
85 Los Angeles
85 San Diego
85 Colorado
84 Cincinnati
82 San Francisco
81 Milwaukee
80 Houston
76 Arizona
74 Philadelphia
72 Florida
70 Atlanta
70 Washington
60 Chicago
55 Pittsburgh

With the American League hazing behind it, a few of the NL teams may degravitate toward a 90-victory pace. In the meantime, the NL West still has nothing to be ashamed about compared to its leaguemates. The division is eight games over .500, while the NL East is 23 games below and the NL Central 41 below.

St. Louis, ballyhooed as a team the Dodgers don't measure up against, is 1 1/2 games better than Los Angeles and 18-19 within its own division, including 3-6 against Chicago and 2-6 against Cincinnati. The Dodgers, who travel to St. Louis for their first four games after the All-Star Break, are 12-7 against the NL Central.

Albert Pujols has missed 17 games for the Cardinals this season, but since he returned from the disabled list, the team is 3-10 (four of the losses came to AL Central firebrands Detroit and Chicago, but against the more tolerable Cleveland, Kansas City and Atlanta, the team went 3-6). The Cardinals have allowed six or more runs in 10 of their past 15 games, and Wednesday proved even more desperate than the Dodgers to take a flyer on 2006 sinkhole Jeff Weaver.

Maybe it's no honor to be second-best of the second-best, but the Dodgers are just about in as much position to claim that bouquet as any team. It will be interesting to see over the next 10 days whether St. Louis has hit rock bottom, or whether the Dodgers can push them down further.

In the meantime, the Cardinals travel to Houston, and to Los Angeles come the Giants, who may be wondering what they're doing still in a pennant race. Or maybe they expected it all along - you never know with those fellas.

Comments (231)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-07-06 09:59:55
1.   Andrew Shimmin
The Dodgers' pythagorean record is 47-37, same as the Mets.
2006-07-06 10:01:36
2.   bluetahoe
The National League is definately up for grabs. I like our O. I think we need help in the pen though. Look for Midas to deal for a Roberto Hernandez. With Penny/Lowe at the front we just need Billz to mature in a hurry and have Marky Mark pitch as good in the 2nd half as he did in the 1st. If that happens we'll be poppin' the playoff bubbly around 9/24.
2006-07-06 10:09:03
3.   Jon Weisman
2 - Shouldn't a nickname make sense on some level?

You can still be a fan of Ned Colletti and acknolwedge that several things he has touched have not turned to gold.

In fact, I would argue that especially if you are a fan of Colletti, the Midas nickname doesn't make sense. It begs for criticism, whereas being more modest about Colletti's strengths and weaknesses might be more constructive.

Humility is a wonderful thing. I would really urge you to let the Midas thing go.

2006-07-06 10:14:08
4.   D4P
How about "Midusa," which reflects both "gold" and "stone"?
2006-07-06 10:14:36
5.   Bob Timmermann
I'm looking at a graph, but I believe the Giants haven't been in first since late April (the 26th I believe.) Everybody else in the NL West has climbed to the top of the greasy pole since then.
2006-07-06 10:15:53
6.   Monterey Chris
I listened to the end of the Giants broadcast last night. The Giants announcers are normally very pro-Giants and very optomistic. However, they sound very nervous about the coming weekend. They described the Dodgers as a team that scores a lot of runs. They described the Giants as not being good at scoring runs, even with Bonds and Alou in the lineup. Their conclusion was that they need 23 Giants to significantly up the level of their game prior to the plane touching down in Los Angeles. As a Dodger fan, it was rather fun to listen to the discussion.
2006-07-06 10:16:56
7.   Bob Timmermann
Here is the graph I was consulting:

2006-07-06 10:21:12
8.   Monterey Chris
That is a great graph. How did the Dodgers get stuck with an ugly green?
2006-07-06 10:22:14
9.   blue22
6 - Alou's on the DL right now too, which bodes well for LA this series even without Penny going.

I'm going to the game tonight. Which Matt Cain will show up tonight?

2006-07-06 10:23:16
10.   Bob Timmermann
That graph does make you think that if you own stock in the Diamondbacks, you should have shorted it a while back.
2006-07-06 10:28:43
11.   Penarol1916
4. That has got to be among your greatest posts ever, on any board.
2006-07-06 10:32:41
12.   D4P
Thanks, Pen. I'll be here all week...
2006-07-06 10:32:44
13.   Bob Timmermann
In Buster Olney's blog, he praised the Rockies for their success this year (and rightfully so.) He thinks that the Giants have the most potential in their starting rotation, presumably because of Cain. I don't think Schmidt is about potential anymore.

Lowry and Wright are question marks to me. Well, actually, they appear in human guise to me, but they are metaphorical question marks.

2006-07-06 10:33:51
14.   Bob Timmermann
Penarol1916 has already hoisted the French tricolor up at his home. He has "Le Marseillaise" playing on his computer all the time now.
2006-07-06 10:40:38
15.   blue22
13 - No help from below for SF either.

Their top pitching prospect in the minors isn't even starting for AAA Fresno. Merkin Valdez, has a 6.10 ERA and a 31:24 K:BB in 32 IP.

2006-07-06 10:43:15
16.   Jon Weisman
4 - That's promising, I've got to say.
2006-07-06 10:43:16
17.   Paul Scott
I liked his "subtraction by addition" better, though D4P can usually be relied upon to produce clever one-liners (or one-worders).

Midusa has made a couple decent FA acquisitions, but really, I have not seen a single trade I would call (at the time it was made - obviously so far the Bradley deal has "worked out") anything other than terrible at best. Mostly, Colletti has been fortunate and players have pulled up injured and the minor league player he had nothing to do with has come up as gold. The good aspects of this team are still either from our farm or are DePo acquisitions - Furcal and Nomar (who still would have been a much better acquisition if not at 1B) being the only exceptions.

Under Colletti, however, this team is only a couple more trades with Tampa away from being a long-term division loser. Something better switch in his brain before that happens.

2006-07-06 10:43:48
18.   Monterey Chris
According to Daddy Alou, the Giants are activating Son Alou for tonight's game.
2006-07-06 10:44:04
19.   Bob Timmermann
When I saw Fresno playing in Tacoma, two thoughts came to mind:

1) The Fresno Grizzlies have incredibly ugly uniforms. They wore green shirts with khaki pants.

2) There were no good prospects at AAA. The Grizzlies were starting Todd Linden, Dan Ortmeier, Justin Knoedler, Adam Shabala, and Matt Kinney. They didn't seem AAA. Maybe they were more Aaa.

2006-07-06 10:45:33
20.   Daniel Zappala
I've been really impressed with the Rockies' starting pitching. They don't strike a lot of guys out, but they have good ERAs, and not just on the road.
2006-07-06 10:46:12
21.   Monterey Chris

Do you pronounce "Aaa" as a word or as three letters?

2006-07-06 10:47:59
22.   Sam DC
So, after sitting (dryly, surprisingly) through last night's surreal 18-9 pasting of the Nationals by the Marlins, I turn on my gameday just now to find them up 5-0 in the first and then oops at 5-4 with 2 on, one out, Uggla up in the second.

Double Grabowski in this game -- both pitchers with run scoring hits only 1.5 innings in.

Of course, Livan getting an RBI isn't really GP territory.

2006-07-06 10:50:53
23.   Bluebleeder87

when that guys on he's nearly unhittable, should be a good game tonight.

2006-07-06 10:52:12
24.   Sam DC
7-5 Florida and Livan is out of the game in the second.
2006-07-06 10:54:10
25.   thinkingblue

But luckily we have owned them this year.

2006-07-06 10:57:18
26.   underdog
9 Yeah, as Bob notes, Alou is not going on the DL, he's coming off it, unfortunately. Which makes their line-up more dangerous (if he's healthy, and if the other guys are healthy, which are a lot of "ifs" for the Giants line-up).

Doesn't anyone else in their mid to late 30s or older chuckle nervously or mockingly when they hear announcers talk about an "old" lineup? - I'm thinking more about in the World Cup, when France's "old guys" - like the ancient Zidane - what is he 33? - and so on are surprising everyone by getting the job done. I know it's just in "sports years" (like dog years), but I still laugh.

I'm 36 and still play soccer and... well, okay, I am feeling more aches and pains, and a slowness in my step these days, but still...

2006-07-06 10:59:08
27.   Suffering Bruin
Midas was not a wise man, not by any stretch. Still, the "Midas touch" is spoken without a trace of irony by millions so it will have to symbolize a wunnerful quality.

That said...

4 is a winner. I promise to get the ball rolling by referring to Colletti in my next ten posts as "Midusa". When asked, I'll refer them to...


2006-07-06 11:03:42
28.   D4P
Yeah. I'm 32, and while I don't feel that old, I nevertheless have to acknowledge that I'm a decade or so removed from my athletic pinnacle.
2006-07-06 11:04:17
29.   Daniel Zappala
As much as Bob hates double errors, witholding a 4-inning win, and other scoring follies, I hate nicknames. My campaign will be to end all nicknames, call Kemp, Furcal, and Colletti by their proper names, and restore justice to the world.
2006-07-06 11:04:25
30.   Bob Timmermann
Actually, it was Monterey Chris who had the note about Alou fils coming off the DL.

Aaa is actually a bond rating.

2006-07-06 11:05:39
31.   Bob Timmermann
I asked a Japanese friend how you say "Game Over" in Japanese to give Saito a nickname.

He said that every video game in Japan ends with the phrase "Game Over" and the Japanese would never think of translating it since video games are so ingrained in the culture.

2006-07-06 11:05:58
32.   Daniel Zappala
26 I'm in my upper 30s and realized I was old when I had my first ever sports injury last year -- pulling a muscle as I "exploded" out of the box to run to first on a nice line drive to left center. I had even stretched properly. Yes, we are old, but by all means, keep playing.
2006-07-06 11:06:07
33.   Bob Timmermann
I hate withholding a four-inning save!
2006-07-06 11:08:54
34.   D4P
Maybe Lucille I was involved in scoring the infamous "Jae Seo rescinded save game." I hear she gets off on withholding...
2006-07-06 11:09:31
35.   Jon Weisman
"Game Over" Mimicry Over
2006-07-06 11:13:11
36.   Sam DC
No Emmy Thoughts?

Has Xeifrank cowed you all?

2006-07-06 11:16:11
37.   Bob Timmermann
Apparently "Grey's Anatomy" is the greatest drama on TV!

I could just picture Jon giving himself a subdural hematoma after hearing that.

2006-07-06 11:19:30
38.   Jon Weisman
I thought about starting an Emmy thread, then just plain forgot about it. But I'll do it - below this one.
2006-07-06 11:20:22
39.   Sam DC
Micah Bowie is now pitching for the Nationals. He sounds like someone from one of Bob's RGCs.
2006-07-06 11:22:22
40.   Sam DC
Micah Bowie now batting with two on!
2006-07-06 11:23:14
41.   Sam DC
Micah Bowie grounds out to the pitcher. He's no Livan.
2006-07-06 11:24:07
42.   Bob Timmermann
The weirdest first names in today's RGC were Patsy, Heinie, and Birdie.
2006-07-06 11:27:52
43.   Penarol1916
14. As much as I want that shirt, I'm having a hard time getting myself to root for France.
2006-07-06 11:39:02
44.   Bob Timmermann
But if you win the shirt, you can tell people, "It's a country, not a chain of sandwich shops."
2006-07-06 11:42:38
45.   Penarol1916
44. Well, people in Chicago do love that sandwich shop, it'll be pretty hard to convince them.
2006-07-06 11:46:23
46.   Bob Timmermann
Gigantor (aka John Rauch) pitching the 5th for the Nats.
2006-07-06 11:47:17
47.   JJoeScott
17 - I thought the Bradley deal, at the time it was made, was brilliant - getting a minor league player of the year for two supposed malcontents.

The Seo-Sanchez deal on it's face wasn't bad. Getting Baez also looked good at the time, IMO, trading away two prospects who had fallen behind some of our better prospects.

And I think dealing Navarro - who had clearly fallen out of favor - to get a spare arm and a servicable backup catcher was also a decent move. I just think maybe we all overvalued Navarro -- maybe there was more of a market for him, but I suspect not from looking at the 28 starting catchers not named Toby Hall.

So far, IMO, he's kept the "right" kids and still been able to pick up some useful parts. To me, any firestorm of criticism should be reserved for when one of the BIG names gets dealt.

My two cents ...

2006-07-06 11:52:17
48.   thinkingblue
I thought the Bradley deal, at the time it was made, was brilliant - getting a minor league player of the year for two supposed malcontents.

That is the best trade Colleti has made so far.

2006-07-06 11:53:40
49.   Penarol1916
So, does anyone know if the Dodgers got anyone interesting on international signing day? I feel like we're not the international powerhouse we used to be.
2006-07-06 11:56:04
50.   regfairfield
47 I think if we're going to evaulate Colletti, it comes out about the same whether we're going on merit or process.

Some of his moves which looked good, like signing Furcal, and getting Seo have turned out badly, but some of the other things he did which made little sense, like bringing in Sele, Saito, Martinez, and Beimel, have worked out pretty well. All in all, I think he's been about break even this year, with the Hendrickson trade pushing him into slightly negative territory.

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2006-07-06 11:58:43
51.   Marty
Ned has made three trades total, right? Of course the Ethier trade looks best.
2006-07-06 12:01:50
52.   regfairfield
51 Four. Ethier, Baez, Seo, and Hendrickson.
2006-07-06 12:03:03
53.   Gagne55
You have to base judgement on results. Things could have looked very good or bad at a time by different people. There were some people who thought Tiffani and Jackson were worth something and that deal looked bad. The deal turned out bad, but for a completely different reason. I thought it was a spectacular deal at the time. I sure was wrong. Same with Nomar. Some said 'injury waiting to happen' while others said 'great player'.
2006-07-06 12:03:15
54.   Gagne55
You have to base judgement on results. Things could have looked very good or bad at a time by different people. There were some people who thought Tiffani and Jackson were worth something and that deal looked bad. The deal turned out bad, but for a completely different reason. I thought it was a spectacular deal at the time. I sure was wrong. Same with Nomar. Some said 'injury waiting to happen' while others said 'great player'.
2006-07-06 12:03:18
55.   D4P
I was thinking 3.5, Carter, Hamulack, and Hall.
2006-07-06 12:04:31
56.   ToyCannon
I would expect nothing less from someone who goes by his full name on a blog board.
2006-07-06 12:05:20
57.   hedgemytickets
Get off Ned's back.

He has delivered us a first place team that leads the league in runs scored. Do you honestly think that Choi, Perez, Navarro and the rest of Depo's kids would have been able to accomplish either of those things?

Ned touched the Dodgers and the Dodgers are now Golden. Who cares if every detail has worked exactly as planned?

Midas nickname remains appropriate in my mind.

2006-07-06 12:08:22
58.   D4P
Ned's back.


2006-07-06 12:09:32
59.   regfairfield
53 I just did an article where I graded Colletti purely on results. I rated each move from 10 to -10 with regards to the impact each player has made, so Saito can't be a 10 simply because you can't make all that much impact in the span of 30 innings.

When all was said and done, the sum of all his moves was five, and this was without the Hendrickson trade. He's done more good than bad so far, but his disasters (Furcal, Seo, Baez and Tomko) have been rather spectaular.

2006-07-06 12:09:32
60.   JJoeScott
Just thinking about it, re-signing Kent for two years (even though pundits had predicted it would happen) strikes me as a likely bad move -- limits what they can do with Nomar, unless there's no plan to ever move Kent to 1B.
2006-07-06 12:12:34
61.   King of the Hobos
Are we all forgetting about trading Ross for Kozlowski? May not be exciting, but it was still a Colletti trade.

Also, the Reds just acquired Eddie Guardado for Travis Chick.

2006-07-06 12:17:55
62.   Bob Timmermann
I guess Schakelford may be out of commission for a while.
2006-07-06 12:19:45
63.   Penarol1916
57. 4 games above .500 is nice, but it is certainly not golden. I'm not sure if this post is just a big over-reaction to the overly negative reaction to Ned in some posts, but I just find it odd that anyone's reactions to Ned are more than moderate, either moderately pleased are moderately displeased, on a scale going from 10 to -10, I personally would give him a 2.
2006-07-06 12:19:51
64.   Bluebleeder87

Travis Chick!! that's a weird one (name)

2006-07-06 12:22:43
65.   the OZ
54 I disagree somewhat with a results-only assessment of all managerial decisions. They certainly matter, but can hide bad judgment or idiocy.

I'd rather evaluate based on the perceived decision-making process and the inputs that are used. We might hypothetically suggest that a GM liked Baez because he had accumulated some saves. Many readers here would likely find such an analysis to be, well, retarded. It's possible that Baez was a solid pitcher that was likely to continue to be good based on things like his walk and strikeout rates, HR rate, and BABIP; or reports from expert scouts, which would have all been OK reasons to acquire him. But to chase a guy because of "saves" would be really dumb.

When Seo was acquired, I remember some writers commenting that he had a good ERA but was really lucky with batted balls and his ERA was likely to rise as a result. It did and Ned traded him, providing some evidence that the initial acquisition didn't go according to plan. Now Mark Hendrickson is the same thing - a mediocre pitcher having a good season based on middling K rates and a low BABIP. The logic behind the Hendrickson trade, we can speculate, is similar to that of the [first] Seo trade. And we all know how that went.

It's possible to trade for a bad pitcher and suddenly, luckily, he does well. But I don't want my GM using a process of decision-making that results in acquiring known bad pitchers. That's the difference between results and process-based evaluation.

2006-07-06 12:26:46
66.   ToyCannon
Even given the fact that he's a +5 based on your research you have to throw in the disaster line when you could just as well have said that while those 4 have contributed negatively, Ned's success's like Nomar and Ethier have been rather spectacular. It is this subtle anti-Ned propaganda that aggravates the small minority on this site who don't feel that Ned is the anti-christ.
2006-07-06 12:27:24
67.   bobbygrich
The more you examine the Dodgers offense, the more it looks like what the Angels in theory try to do, with some walks tossed in.

The Dodgers are hitting .307 with runners in scoring position, however that number is probably reflective of the pitching they are facing, during that last round of interleague play against Zito, Liriano, Santana, Lackey, et. al., they didn't get many men on and when they did, they couldn't hit. But look at some of these averages with RISP.

Sandy Alomar 10-19 .526
Nomar Garciaparra 27-68 .397
Ramon Martinez 14-36 .389
Andre Ethier 15-40 .375
Jeff Kent 23-64 .359
Jason Repko 7-20 .350
Matt Kemp 10-29 .345
Russ Martin 16-48 .333
Rafael Furcal 23-70 .329
Kenny Lofton 15-49 .306
Olmedo Saenz 14-46 .304
Willy Aybar 9-30 .300
Bill Mueller 7-26 .269
J.D. Drew 22-86 .256
Cesar Izturis 4-16 .250
Jose Cruz Jr. 7-36 .194

BTW even in their brief chances, both Guzman and Loney did well in these situations, Guzman went for 3-6 and Loney went 3-9.

Further note on the kids, all of them also do well with RISP and 2 outs, the lowest average was Aybar's at .286, both Guzman and Loney got all of their hits in those situations, Guzman was 3-3 and Loney was 3-5.
Kemp bats .375, Russ bats .348 and Ethier hits .313

2006-07-06 12:28:52
68.   Bob Timmermann
I do know that if Hendrickson struggles tonight, I'm not going to log in to read the comments.
2006-07-06 12:30:12
69.   ToyCannon
Big difference from posting a sub 3.00 ERA based on being lucky relative to BABIP and all of the sudden becoming Jose Lima which is what happened with Seo. He didn't become a lousy pitcher because his BABIP normalized. A normal BABIP might have raised his ERA to an expected level but NO ONE expected Seo to be a complete bust. At least no analyst I read or any poster on this site went out on that limb.
2006-07-06 12:30:21
70.   bobbygrich
60 See above for his average with RISP, Jeff Kent remains one of the best hitters with runners on base and two outs, 13-28 .464/.634/.786

He may get more banged up and miss some games but in a season and a half, he has certainly been one of the most consistent parts of the lineup and his defense while not great has not been the detriment that some predicted.

2006-07-06 12:32:29
71.   ToyCannon
That tells me that this team better start hitting some home runs or they are going to have a tough time scoring runs as those RISP will fall from those lofty heights.
2006-07-06 12:35:18
72.   Andrew Shimmin
Line for the Black Mass forms to the left, please have your goat's blood amulets in plain sight. . .
2006-07-06 12:35:27
73.   LAT
68. Me too. I'll be out at Home Depot buying up all the pitch forks and torches. :-)
2006-07-06 12:38:24
74.   D4P
I do know that if Hendrickson struggles tonight, I'm not going to log in to read the comments.

If you're gonna read the comments, you might as well log in.

2006-07-06 12:39:31
75.   Bob Timmermann
I'll spend the night writing future RGCs. I'm only done through July 12. I need a bigger cushion.
2006-07-06 12:41:37
76.   LAT
Although, I have voiced my displeasure with Ned's aggregate moves, I will give him credit for trading Seo to Tampa Bay. A lot of GMs would have simply let Seo languish in the bullpen so as to not admit their mistake of acquiring him in the first place. Ned manned-up and did what he thought was best for the team even if it meant admitting that the Seo experiment was a failure.
2006-07-06 12:43:14
77.   Steve
It wasn't even Ned's fault that Seo became the Korean Jeff Weaver. Too bad he brought back the Giant Mike Venafro.
2006-07-06 12:43:20
78.   the OZ
69 I actually agree with you 100%. I expected Seo to be OK, and he wasn't. I thought the deal to acquire him made sense even if his performance declined a bit. It declined a lot. Ned got unlucky, methinks. Which is why I'm not a fan of focusing solely on results when evaluating performance.

As it relates to acquiring Hendrickson, my point is that Ned shouldn't have expected Seo to repeat his '05 performance and probably shouldn't expect Hendrickson to continue his '06 success, but he still pulled the trigger on the MH/Toby Hall deal. Besides, Seo was acquired for a middle reliever (good process) and Hendrickson was acquired for an OK catcher and struggling starter (worse process). So even if Hendrickson works out well, I'd rather have Ned not repeat that process when acquiring his next player.

2006-07-06 12:44:01
79.   Sam DC
Bizarre -- In the bottom 7, with a one-run lead, a runner on second, and two outs, the Marlins just IBB'd Soriano to get to .312 hitting Jose Vidro. Vidro's not a home run threat, but certainly a single threat.

Not an important move, but a wierd one. A single here

2006-07-06 12:45:54
80.   Sam DC
And pitcher Taylor Tankersley (another good one) throws a WP advancing the runners on the way to a five-pitch walk of Vidro.
2006-07-06 12:46:51
81.   Sushirabbit
So is it going to be an all 40 outfield? Finley, Bonds and Alou? (missed July 3 by 3 days!)

I sometimes think that Kent, like Piazza, get's a bad defensive label simply because he is so great offensively. I mean sure, in Minnesota he (like all the dodgers) wasn't diving to get balls off the turf, and sure he's missed a few Cora would have gotten to, but he's also made some pretty nice plays. But like Piazza the guy is going in the HoF whether you like him or not.

2006-07-06 12:47:41
82.   Terry A
76 - Yet Baez remains.
2006-07-06 12:48:27
83.   Sam DC
Oops -- and a five pitch walk to Ryan Zimmerman ties the game. Bases loaded for Nick Johnson.
2006-07-06 12:50:24
84.   bobbygrich
71 I would agree but the fact that all of them (with Cruz being the real exception, Drew pretty much hits the same regardless of the situation) hit well in those situations could also explain their walk rate despite not hitting many home runs.

The other thing is that they really should have won even more games at home, they are scoring well over 6 runs a game, nearly 2 runs a game a better at home, while their offense is not affected by the park, opposing teams are hitting .257 with an OPS of .721, the Dodgers hit .307 with an OPS of .842

I would hope they would hit more home runs, though I think the only way that could happen is to bring someone in. In the second half, they will only have 35 games at home, so they will have to start playing better on the road (again against the NL, they are 17-16).

2006-07-06 12:50:41
85.   Sam DC
Johnson grounds out ugly to Uggla.
2006-07-06 12:50:56
86.   ToyCannon
How is a lousy loogy comparable to a starting pitcher averaging almost 7 innings a game. I understand but don't agree with your disregard for relief pitchers but how does that spill over to Hendrickson? If you wanted to call him the Giant Rueter I could understand but Venafro!
2006-07-06 12:56:44
87.   Steve
They're not directly comparable in role, but they have lousiness in common. Perhaps we can settle at the Oversized Terry Mulholland and call it a deal.
2006-07-06 12:59:35
88.   scareduck
You have to base judgement on results.

To some extent, but to really understand whether a trade should have been executed, you have to look at the situation on the ground at the time the decision was made. This is especially important when you're trying to cope with monstrocities like Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields. There were a lot of question marks about Martinez, but they were none of them serious enough to warrant sending him on his way for DeShields. Youth for veteran swaps frequently end unhappily for the team going that way. That was an example of a dubious trade at the time that rapidly became a catastrophe for the Dodgers, whether you try to understand it from the Dodgers' point of view at the time, or Martinez's subsequent performance.

2006-07-06 13:03:55
89.   kegtron
I'm in favor of Coletti and Co. taking a trip to Japan during the offseason and bringing back a brigade of Japanese relievers to man our bullpen next year along with Broxton, Saito and (hopefully) Gagne.
2006-07-06 13:03:56
90.   bobbygrich
71 Obviously this stat is dependeant on a lot of factors but at the halfway point of the season, you have to think that is beyond being a fluke.

The White Sox are hitting .315 in these situations, with power from Thome, Dye, Konerko and Crede while Detroit doesn't hit exceptionally well but its pitching is so good, what hitting its gets, carries them through. Boston and the Mets also are not extraordinary in these at bats either.

So whose to say what it means but I agree, hopefully, Kent, Drew, and maybe Kemp or someone else will go on a homer tear in the second half, but also I think this offense also reflects how important Nomar is to the day to day stability. In a way, its like Boston without 2 important cogs in Manny and Ortiz but they get their hits and walks and by constantly getting guys on base, puts pressure on the defense and the pitching.

How long this formula lasts, we shall be waiting to see.

2006-07-06 13:07:57
91.   Jon Weisman
88 - "Youth for veteran swaps frequently end unhappily for the team going that way."

To be fair, DeShields was 24 (almost 25) when the Dodgers got him. He's only 2 1/2 years older than Martinez. DeShields is an example of someone who fell on his face faster and harder than anyone should have expected.

Not that it makes the trade any less of a tragedy or cautionary tale.

2006-07-06 13:10:05
92.   Paul Scott
You cannot base judgement on results. It has no meaning. Midusa didn't know the future at the time of any deal, so how can you judge his deals based on what, in fact, ends up happening?

To give an extreme example, assume a Giant's game and the Giant's are down 0-3, bottom of the ninth, bases loaded with 2 outs. Barry Bonds is due to bat. Alou decides to pitch hit Armondo Benetiz for Bonds. Are you really going to tell me that if Benetiz hits a HR winning the game for the Giants that you would say Alou made the right decision? Of course not.

Same with GMs. They make an acquisition or a trade. They do so with the information available to them at the time and not with any information on what will happen in the future. If the question is - "how good is the GM?" then those trades and acquisitions must be evaluated based on the information available at the time of the trade or acquisition.

Sure, if the question is "which team got the better of the other in a particular trade?" then look at results. But don't kid yourself into thinking you are evaluating GM skill when you do it.

2006-07-06 13:11:01
93.   Jon Weisman
88 - But to your larger point, I agree. I would rather have a GM that makes the logical choice than have one who relies on being lucky.

Results will certainly tell you who was best leading up to now, but they won't necessarily tell you who is the best going forward.

2006-07-06 13:11:25
94.   LAT
82. I'm only giving Ned credit for cutting his loses, not incurring them in the first place.
2006-07-06 13:12:06
95.   Humma Kavula
For the second time in a row, I seem to have something better to do than watch Mark Hendrickson pitch.

I'm not optimistic about Hendrickson...

...but I AM optimistic about Belle & Sebastian!

2006-07-06 13:13:05
96.   Jon Weisman
92 - That explanation works, too.
2006-07-06 13:17:34
97.   the OZ
Or we can judge GMs based on metrics like "Best Hair", "Best Eyes", and "Custest GM/AGM Couple", like in high school yearbooks.
2006-07-06 13:22:17
98.   Sam DC
OF Daryle Ward another pinch hit (a single in the bottom of the ninth of a tie game).

One thing that would make our job (overanalysis of every Dodger whinge and sneeze) easier would be if we could get a better quality of explanation for the team's moves from the principals. Colletti made the Navarro/Hendrickson deal involving those players at that time for a whole set of reasons. But we don't get a very rich explanation of what those reasons are, so we're left to make best guesses and attribute reasons, but it leads to a lot of straw men and a lot of debating about hypotheticals. It'd be great to know what the team actually thought when it made these deals and to hash those decisions over on their own terms. (And yes I realize there are srategic and just human reasons they don't tell us.)

2006-07-06 13:24:23
99.   blue22
97 - "Best Moustache"?
2006-07-06 13:25:10
100.   Icaros
I think big Mark just needs to do something to spice up his image a little, get his name to roll off our tongues better.

Let's rename him Mark Hendrix.

If he puts some blotter acid in the rim of his cap before tonight's game he could channel the no-hit spirit of Doc Ellis.

Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2006-07-06 13:25:43
101.   Sam DC
Zimmerman with another chance to be a hero. Tie game two on two outs bottom of the ninth.
2006-07-06 13:26:33
102.   Jon Weisman
98 - Yeah, we get a level-one explanation: "Hendrickson looks like a solution to the starting pitching problem that Seo wasn't solving."

What we don't get is sort of the next step of the debate. Some of us say, "No, he doesn't look like a solution, and here's why." We get no response to that. That would be great if that happened.

If only I could quit my day job (?) ...

2006-07-06 13:29:59
103.   bobbygrich
88 I wouldm't say he fell on his face and the team made the post-season the two times it was eligible to do so.

Other dubious trades:
Larry Anderson for Jeff Bagwell
Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz
Joe Nathan, Bonser, and Liriano for A.J.
V. Zambrano for Scott Kazmir.

Smoltz is probably a tier below Pedro but just barely and some may say that his 182 wins and 150 plus saves at least equals Pedro's 200 plus wins. Pedro does have the rep and aura.

Bagwell is certainly equivalent from an offensive perspective to Pedro's pitching though his last few years might give the edge.

The other two trades certainly appear to be headed for the team that got the younger player and unlike the first two, those teams did not win their division.

Also, I will say that while DeSheilds certainly did not play well and did better once he left for St. Louis, it was the fact that Pedro really took off after DeSheilds left that really made the trade look bad.

2006-07-06 13:30:49
104.   the OZ
102 You have kids, right? Put 'em to work! Then you can quit your day job and explain to Social Services that you were trying to help the kids build character.
2006-07-06 13:32:01
105.   Sam DC
Zimmerman not a hero.

102 Or Navarro -- "We have our catcher of the future in Russ Martin."

OK, great, but what if he gets hurt, and don't you need a good backup anyhow, and couldn't you have held Navarro a little tighter and gotten a better offer . . . You'd assume Colletti has answers to those questions, but we don't really know. And certainly have no way to judge if we agree or disagree.

2006-07-06 13:32:07
106.   Jon Weisman
104 - Because character wins pennants, after all.
2006-07-06 13:34:02
107.   LAT
102. If only I could quit my day job (?) ...

What and leave all this behind? What would you have us do? Like it or not, the burden of keeping us entertained, distracted and unproductive is yours.

2006-07-06 13:35:51
108.   twerp
JM2C, but Colletti needs to be given some slack and some time. No GM will bat 1.000. (Yeah, I know. What's the fun if you have to be fair and not take shots from the lip?)

Think big picture. Remember Colletti came well recommended, but very late. He had a lot to do, and quickly. Doing nothing wasn't an option.

Where would the best Dodger offense in years be without Colletti imports Nomar, Ethier, Martinez, Lofton, Mueller (while he lasted), and Alomar? Colletti re-signed Saenz (say that fast 3 times...)

Even overpaid Furcall might turn out, if he ever quits trying too hard and bringing back memories of Steve Sax, like a sign in the first-base stands saying "Hit the ball to Sax. I want a souvenir." Or Pedro Guerrero telling Lasorda the worst thing that could happen would be for the ball to be hit to him in the outfield. The second worst? For it to be hit to Sax.

On the pitching side, Colletti good moves have been Saito and Sele (so far). Baez made sense as Gagne insurance in theory if not in fact. Carter? (See no GM bats 1.000 above.) Hendrickson? Too early to call. Seo? Seo-so at best, at least as a Dodger.

Ned may have been given advice on Saito, Ethier, others. But you know what? He seems to have listened. And made mostly right calls.

Someone said here the other day that injuries hadn't hit the Dodgers like in '05. Say, what? Not long ago the number of games missed due to injury was very close to last year.

Consider that the team has 11 blown saves, Baez 7. How many blown saves would even a 75% Gagne have? How many games ahead would the Dodgers be?

Fortunately the rookies have prevented a big injury gap on the offensive side.

2006-07-06 13:37:01
109.   Sam DC
So the Nationals gave up 7 runs in the second inning and zero runs in the other runs (it's middle 10th now), including 8 straight scoreless by the bullpen.
2006-07-06 13:37:13
110.   Sam DC
err, the other "nine"
2006-07-06 13:40:00
111.   bobbygrich
I swear I heard this when the Roberts deal was made (I still say that as a 5th OF, which he was because Choi was going to play first, Green was going back to RF, Finley was playing CF, Milt in LF and Werth being the 4th OF) Depo wanted to send Roberts somewhere he could play more and at that time Damon was out and Boston needed an OF. Now, circumstances changed when Choi didn't play and Green went back to first and in Boston, Roberts spend more time on the bench which led people to think that he could have done that here.

Now, I know some say Depo would not make that deal now, but I do believe that is why he made it.

I think the Seo/Navarro deal was made because Grady couldn't find a situation where he was comfortable pitching Seo and with Tomko's injury, they were not comfortable with the Seo/Perez option, Tampa had probably stepped their pursuit of Navarro once he was optioned to Vegas, Hendrickson was probably at the top of the short list of pitchers that you could get without blowing up your system and while I think the deal was primarily a Navarro for Hendrickson deal, the Dodgers needed a catcher to replace Navarro in case Martin gets hurt and Tampa needed someone to replace Hendrickson in their rotation because they didn't like their options.

That's my take on how it all went down and based on what little is out there, it makes sense to me.

2006-07-06 13:43:13
112.   JoeyP
If you spend 30 mils dollars, it would be hard not to improve the team, at least a little bit.

However, this team really isnt that much improved over last year. The only differences is the rookies and Drew hasnt broken his wrist yet. Grits over Tracy was an improvement, but only until Izzy came back. Now they are very similar.

While Ned hasnt made the big move of trading the biggest of the prospects, all of his little moves tell us how his thought process is. I dont like a guy that spends money/prospecs on innings eaters (Tomko, Hendrickson) and inconsequential role players (Baez,Lofton, Mueller). Nor do I like a guy that evaluates on small sample sizes (Trading Navarro bc he thinks Martin is the guy for the future), or doesnt look at periperhals (Hendrickson, Seo).

That still doesnt even make mention of needlessly stupid things like releasing Cody Ross bc they couldnt send Repko to AAA for a few days, or releasing Choi bc they couldnt just put him at Vegas. Those moves were just dumb and unecessary. Bradley/Perez for Ethier has had good results, but giving up two MLB players for a AA'er hardly ever works, so I'm not expecting the results to maintain.

I cant give Ned much heat for trading a reliever for Seo, even though it didnt work. Likewise, I cant give Ned much credit for trading two MLB players, for a AA'er. Furcal's a bust so far, but I honestly was more upset with that move forcing JtD off his SS position.

You have to evaluate the thought process before the results. I think thats why some GMs are easier to follow than others, bc some work on logic and statistically deals make sense, and then others trade for AJ Pierzynski and Mark Hendrickson.

2006-07-06 13:47:57
113.   Jon Weisman
107 - Despite appearances to the contrary, this is not my day job. This is my frivolous endeavor.
2006-07-06 13:51:46
114.   Chris H
95 I'll be there too. I'm planning on watching a bit of the game on my phone though.
2006-07-06 13:56:39
115.   hedgemytickets
112 - It's odd that with all of Ned's horrible moves we are in first place, pythagorus says we are better than our record indicates, and we are leading the league in runs. I guess if Ned knew what he was doing, we'd be 30 games over .500.
2006-07-06 14:00:14
116.   twerp
Sushirabbit, the other day you referred to being from TN. Did you mean you live there now or were from there originally? Thx..
2006-07-06 14:00:20
117.   JoeyP
It's odd that with all of Ned's horrible moves we are in first place,

I agree.
I never would have thought a 44-40 record would garner a first place tie with two other teams.
So its odd.

2006-07-06 14:00:59
118.   bobbygrich
113 Not my job but frivolous, no way. Obviously we have the Dodgers' ear with Josh lurking out there.

112 Peace out, maybe we can meet at another DT night and have a long discussion on GM philosophies.

Did anyone mention that yesterday's BA AA report had a short feature on Terry Evans, I just wonder if someone in the Angels' office saw that and said, "We want him."

Of course, that would mean that someone there reads BA.

2006-07-06 14:01:56
119.   Sam DC
The end of a grand American tradition?

2006-07-06 14:02:40
120.   Jon Weisman
115 - Or maybe the guys who preceded him knew a little bit, too. Not every contributor on the team is a Ned acquisition - look at the starting rotation, for example. Look at the rookies outside of Ethier.
2006-07-06 14:04:40
121.   Sam DC
Wow -- Top of the 11th, 2 outs, runner on second, Uggla gets to 3-0 against Nationals closer Chad Cordero then swings away and pops out the catcher.
2006-07-06 14:05:12
122.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Re: 115

Or maybe Ned isn't all that horrible.

I for one find all this debate over GMs, which all reduce down to the old feuds over Depo, profoundly tiresome.

I liked DePo a lot; I wish he was still around; but, really, some things get exagerrated.

Choi has been AWFUL. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. It's telling that a sabermetric org like Boston has let him languish in AAA. And I was a big Choi supporter around here. Maybe Tracy killed his confidence. Maybe not. The numbers this year, though, have to count for something.

Oh, and btw, A. Perez's OPS is .394 while playing for the Moneyball franchise. Milton's been hurt and his SLG is .351.

In exchange, Ned got Ethier. 112 glibly dismisses that. Maybe Ned actually had good scouts who saw something in Ethier that Beane and co. didn't? If we're going to blame Ned for the Baez move, then give him credit for when he fleeces Beane. Maybe Ethier will crater, but I don't think we can just dismiss 3.5's contributions so easily.

Never mind Nomah.

Never mind Ned not trading prospects right-and-left to make a "big splash" as the new GM in the winter.

Ned's done fine so far, and I think he should at least get some credit for it.


2006-07-06 14:08:17
123.   gibsonhobbs88
All I know is that the hated No-Cals are in town, the horrid Black and orange uniforms and the reason I hate Halloween because it reminds me of all the atrocities the Giants had inflicted on Blue Heaven over the years. One thing we have over them since the move west, we have 5 World Series to their ZILCH!! Remind any No-Cal battery chucker of that at the game tonight!! I don't like the way the starting pitching is set up this weekend, we may need many runs to counteract our mostly mediocre starting pitchers with Lowe on Saturday being the exception. A split may be reasonable expectation, 3-4 a hopeful possibility and a 4 game sweep a whimsical pipe dream at this point. I hope the Boys will have their bats and gloves ready, it may not be pretty but Let's go Blue!!
2006-07-06 14:10:00
124.   Sam DC
Nats/Marlins still tied bottom 11. Zimmerman up two on two out again.
2006-07-06 14:14:10
125.   Sam DC
Zimmerman a hero. GW single.
2006-07-06 14:14:47
126.   King of the Hobos
Kershaw made his second appearance for the GCL Dodgers and went 3 innings, striking out 5, while allowing no walks or runs and only 2 hits.
2006-07-06 14:18:20
127.   JoeyP
122. I think you are looking at results, rather than thought process. I look at the latter.
2006-07-06 14:28:28
128.   gibsonhobbs88
Unlike other posters here, I don't consider Furcal a "disaster" yet. He has not performed to the expectation level, but he has shown some offensive signs of coming out of it. Seo coming off a good second half last year I thought would be a good back end of the rotation guy, it didn't work out. Unfortunately, trading and speculating on a player's future performance is an inexact science at best and a blind crapshoot at the worst. You can only take your best educated guess based on the information presently available. Also, basing your decision making on Depo's "sabermatic" approach takes out the human element of a player's desire and baseball instincts and knowhow. I believe Coletti tries to find players that are a balance of the two approaches. If he hits on 60-65% of his moves, we will be alright.
2006-07-06 14:28:36
129.   Paul Scott
Never mind Nomah.

What about Nomar? What we had at his posstion was adequate and Nomar is costing us $10M more per year. What could that $10M have obtained? We got Tomko for $4/year (a move I liked, fwiw). What FA starter could we have gotten for $14 if we hadn't signed Nomar and just stuck with a Choi/Saenz platoon? How much more important would that starter be compared to the advantage of having Nomar at 1B? How much more obvious was it that pitching, not 1B, was lacking at the start of the off-season?

To me, Nomar is just another example of how bad Midusa is when it comes to valuation. He's putting up above average numbers for his position (for now) and will probably be an "all-Star," but that doesn't make his acquisition the right choice at the time it was made.

2006-07-06 14:30:44
130.   underdog
126 Can we call him up yet?
2006-07-06 14:30:53
131.   hedgemytickets
127 - and some of us look only at the results that prove the points they are trying to make.

For instance, some of us focus on the 44-40 record to state that the Dodgers are mediocre instead of the sabermetrically accepted Bill James's Pythagoran method that reduces the luck factor and happens to suggest the Dodgers are much better than their record would indicate.

2006-07-06 14:36:43
132.   underdog
129 What could 10m have obtained? Someone a lot worse than Nomar that's who? Look at all the terribly overpriced FA starters out there last year. Should we have resigned Weaver? Overpaid (doubly) for AJ Burnett? And I was one who, as much as I liked Nomar, had doubts about whether he could contribute. As far as I'm concerned, with the contributions he's made bot h on offense and defense and just getting the Dodger fans excited about games (along with the rookies), and for his persona in the clubhouse, Nomar has more than earned his money this year already.

I really think Midusa (that's starting to grow on me) has made some good moves and some very questionable ones and some that really can't be evaluated at all yet with any degree of certainity. I'm not in the extreme hate or love camp for him... Just my humble (and loveable) opinions.

2006-07-06 14:40:10
133.   Marty
I find my self pining for the thread where we could argue whether Ken Lay still deserved sentencing after death.
2006-07-06 14:41:52
134.   D4P
I don't think Kenny Boy is actually dead. It's a conspiracy.
2006-07-06 14:44:37
135.   JoeyP
132. I think Burnett would have been a great signing. I think trading for Beckett would have been good as well, but I'd rather have just signed AJ and kept the prospects. But I actually liked signing Nomar, I just didnt like putting him at 1st base.

Imagine, if Nomar would have been signed to play SS. Now, maybe his groin doesnt allow him to do it, I'm not sure. That eliminates the need of Furcal (13mils), and suddenly you have lots of cash to play with, and you've already upgraded your 2nd biggest hole on the team (SS).

The thought process of deciding to upgrade an already functional part (1st base) as top priority, and pretty much ignoring the biggest weaknesses (LF and Starting pitching) is what was troubling about the off-season.

Its like the core is in place, the minors are full of prospects, and now all thats left is for the GM to make those final moves in order for the team to make a big leap. However, it didnt happen.

2006-07-06 14:45:24
136.   Penarol1916
132. Hooray, another member of the "Meh, what's everyone getting so excited about either way?" group.
2006-07-06 14:47:14
137.   Sam DC
"Ridiculing the Pittsburgh Pirates was one of the simple pleasures of the national pastime in the first half of the 1950s. The Boy Buffoons of Baseball, Life Magazine called them. 'The atrocities they committed under the guise of major league baseball were monstrous,' wrote Marshall Smith. Pirate pitchers threw the ball in the general direction of home plate and ducked. Pirate batters missed signs as blithely as they missed baseballs. Priate fielding was so graceful that the team gave the opposition four or five outs per inning. Sportswriters accused Pirates of running the bases with their heads tucked under their arms.' When one of the club's top minor league managers wanted to scare one of his underachieving players, he threatened to send him up to Pittsburgh."

From Clemente (page 59), by David Maraniss.

And that paragraph ends, by the way, with this: "All of this was overseen by Pittsburgh's esteemed general manager, Branch Rickey."

Good read so far, though I wouldn't be surprised if folks more informed then I had stronger views one way or the other.

2006-07-06 14:47:35
138.   hedgemytickets
129 - If we can't now come to a unanimous decision that the Nomar signing was a good one regardless of whether or not we supported/understood it at the time, then we are wasting our time.

This was obviously a very special and significant move that has resulted in huge improvement over what we had last year and otherwise would have had this year. Your arguments might make since if this is January, but its not. It's July and the Nomar signing has proven to be an undeniable success.

For a statistical explanation of Nomar's production, check out his strikeout per plate appearance ratio.

2006-07-06 14:49:38
139.   jasonungar05
No matter how hard some try, I can't be convinced that Furcal is/was a good signing. 13 million dollars annually for a light hitting SS is absurd. I don't think he is that far off his career numbers. Top row is current, bottom is career.

261 .336 .340 .676
281 .346 .402 .748

I know that "errors" is not the end all (by any means) to determine how good someone is on defense. But don't act so suprised. In years where he played over 110 games he has had 23, 27, 31, 24, 15 and now 18 errors.

My eyes probably decieve me, but there isn't one play all year at SS where I said, wow his range or arm strength or his instincts got to a ball that Izzy didn't/wouldn't get to.

That's a move I wish he could make go away.

2006-07-06 14:50:55
140.   Bob Timmermann

In the SABR journal "National Pastime", Stew Thornley pokes holes the size of Meteor Crater in Maranniss's theory that the Dodgers tried to hide Clemente when he was in the minors in order to lower his value and to keep anyone from taking him in the Rule 5 Draft.

2006-07-06 14:55:22
141.   Sam DC
140 Now Bob, Maraniss only has one "n".

You nn folks. Next up I know it'll be Ryann Zimmermann, Rookie of the Year.

I do have the feeling as I read it that it's nicely written and evocative, but not super accurate or informative.

Maraniss' book They Marched Into Sunlight, on the other hand, I found to be brilliant and deeply moving. A good read for today's world.

2006-07-06 14:58:06
142.   Sam DC
138 If we can't now come to a unanimous decision that the Nomar signing was a good one regardless of whether or not we supported/understood it at the time, then we are wasting our time.

But why? Is it important that we be unanimous? And why not respond to the particular point in 129 that we had a servicable first base option and other upgrades were more pressing than Nomar?

2006-07-06 14:59:02
143.   dzzrtRatt
122 I'm with you. If it was too early to pull the plug on DePo after two seasons, it is way too early to reach a conclusion on Colletti after six months. It is also intellectually dishonest to ignore the good moves he's made and focus solely on the bad ones. And be humble about the moves that look "good" or "bad" today. The day the Bradley/Perez for Ethier trade was made, it was scorned big time. Signing Nomar elicited bored, impatient sighs.

I'm not saying Mark Hendrickson is a good acquisition, yet. I'm not saying it's a bad one, yet, either. What that trade shows is that when you have, conservatively, 21 out of 30 GMs who still think their team can make the post-season, the opportunities to pick up an experienced starting pitcher are extremely limited. Bill Stoneman believed, absurdly, that he could get Lastings Milledge for Jeff Weaver! That's an indication of the seller's market for starting pitching. Colletti looks to the Rays for help because the Rays are one of the few teams willing to part with their best players in return for players whose impact will be felt later. Almost everybody else is in win-now mode.

With DePo moving farther away in the rear view mirror, his record appears more mixed, though like JFK, who's to say what he could have accomplished had he been given more time. DePo demonstrated executive fecklessness in his handling of Jim Tracy. That was disturbing. But he was also the guy who brought us Brad Penny, J.D. Drew, Derek Lowe and Jeff Kent. He avoided trading prospects. Colletti hasn't been a religious about keeping prospects as DePo or Evans were, but the ones he's unloaded seem to be a cut below the ones he's kept.

I think Sandy Alderson has found the right niche for DePo, as Beane did. He is a creative, astute evaluator of talent. He is not a "buck stops here" executive. He needs to be paired with a junkyard dog.

2006-07-06 15:00:44
144.   underdog
Ken Lay's death does seem bizarrely timed, like something out of a dark wizard's book of magick. I didn't realize he was until reading an article in the SF Chron's bizness section today about the way people have reacted to it. I still think he's out there halfway between Mount Doom and Mordoor, trying to sell utilities contracts to Saruman.
2006-07-06 15:02:07
145.   Terry A
The Nomar signing can be called a success at this point only because it's a one-year contract. (I, too, stumped for Nomar to play SS until Izturis returned, at which point Nomar would've moved to 3B. Alas, nobody ever called me for consultation.)

This is the same reason why it's too early to call Furcal a "disaster" (though "disappointment" seems apt). We're not even 1/3 of the way through the contract yet. He could still "earn" his money in years two and three. (For the record, I did not and do not support the Furcal signing. But it could still pan out.)

My Colletti issues have much more to do with his pitching moves -- specifically, his awful trades with Tampa Bay -- than with most of his everyday-player acquisitions.

2006-07-06 15:03:36
146.   underdog
143 Well said! Except there's too much logic and reason and not enough vitriol and froth. Okay, let's take it from the top, with more passionate anger this time. {heh.}
2006-07-06 15:04:23
147.   Brian Y
I would just like to say that Ned has made some very lopsided trades and some decent signings. But most of these trades other than the Duaner for Seo trade are too early to call one way or the other. Some of the prospects may pan out, they may get hurt and not contribute much if ever. You never know and as opposed to trading our young players and prospects it hasn't hurt us yet. There has been no immediate Pedro for Delino of the bunch to speak of at this point.
2006-07-06 15:06:28
148.   Terry A
Point of clarification: The Nomar signing is a success, a clear win for Colletti and the Dodgers (and Nomar). But we couldn't call it a worthwhile endeavor if Nomar had signed a multi-year deal.

Right now, for instance, the Kent extension really has me nervous. But it's just too early to call that one.

2006-07-06 15:08:03
149.   GoBears
For instance, some of us focus on the 44-40 record to state that the Dodgers are mediocre instead of the sabermetrically accepted Bill James's Pythagoran method that reduces the luck factor and happens to suggest the Dodgers are much better than their record would indicate.

Actually, no. I posted a link a week or two ago to a BP article on the NL West. James's Pythagorean measure shows how many wins and losses a team "should" have, given how many runs they've scored and allowed. But it doesn't account for anything else. Just, given how much has been produced, how many wins should that be? THe BP article accounted for park factors (I think) and quality of opposition so far (I'm sure). Yeah, by the end of the season, the schedules of all NL West teams will have more or less evened out, but not at the halfway point. The punchline of the article was that the Dodgers have just as many wins as they should, because while they've undershot their Pythagorean record a bit, they've done it against the easiest schedule in the division so far (and by far).

So, while Pyth W/L is useful, it's not the be-all, end-all.

The Dodgers are a mediocre team. Good offense (but so far lucky that BA has made up for lack of power), and pretty lousy pitching. That spells average. Might be good enough to win the West, but given that the payroll is $30M higher than last year AND rookies are way overperforming both expectations and last year's replacement scrubs AND that injuries have been bad but not as bad as last season, it's hard to say that Colletti has any sort of magic touch.

I said at the start of the season that Colletti was in a no-lose situation. There was NO WAY the team could be as unlucky as last year, so of course the record would improve, and he'd get credit. That he's not Jim Bowden is both obvious and comforting. But he's not done anything special or enlightened either.

And maybe that's all it will take, and all we need. The Dodgers are the big budget team in the division, and, along with the Mets, in the NL. Average luck and average GM intelligence should be enough for lots of winning seasons, and the occasional deep playoff run. It'd be nice to have deep pockets and inspired decision making, but either is better than neither. Save your pity for Royals fans.

2006-07-06 15:10:24
150.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Re: 143

I definitely agree with everything in your post also. I also think it's a shame we'll never see DePo grow into his job. I think getting his own field manager would have made a world of difference, but McCourt had to jump the gun here.


Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2006-07-06 15:11:40
151.   JJoeScott
Bill Stoneman believed, absurdly, that he could get Lastings Milledge for Jeff Weaver!

I think we'd have to consider the source there - someone leaked that information (since it's a "sources say" quote). And it could have been said in jest. Anyway, that Stoneman would have asked for Milledge simply defies believe.

2006-07-06 15:17:33
152.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Re: 149

Average GM intelligence is of course something far different from "bad" 129 or "terrible" 17 or "dumb" 112.


2006-07-06 15:18:51
153.   underdog
The prospect the Cardinals ended up trading for Weaver isn't quite up there in Milledge territory but is a pretty highly regarded OF. But again, not Milledge. Even as much as Stoneman sometimes lives up to his name, I too found this rumor a little silly. (Or maybe he figured, "What's the harm in asking, other than riotous laughter at my expense?")
2006-07-06 15:20:12
154.   blue22
151 - I missed the whole Weaver-to-StL discussion in real time this weekend. I was a bit surprised to see StL get their hands on him, because that meant every other team in the NL passed (right?).

Would've Weaver been worth a flier on, assuming a similar level prospect?

2006-07-06 15:22:54
155.   underdog
Who or what is a Justin Reid? Whatever it is, it's starting for the LV 51s tonight.

Meanwhile, I hadn't noticed that OF Wilkin Ruan was called up to the 51s this week. Off to a good start there, at least.

2006-07-06 15:24:51
156.   twerp
123 SF made World Series in 1962,'89, and '02. But no titles on coast, as you say. Best team probably '62.

Dodger 9 World Series appearances on coast are 1959, '63, '65 '66, '74, '77, '78, '81, and '88.

Dodger west coast World Series championshps==='59, '63, '65 '81, and '88. Other title the revered 1955 Brooklyn team.

All-time world series results, FWIW:

2006-07-06 15:26:22
157.   Humma Kavula
154 I don't believe Weaver passed through waivers -- I believe it was a straight-up trade that happened during the 10 days that the Angels had to decide what to do.
2006-07-06 15:27:54
158.   bobbygrich
154 He did not go through waivers so no one "passed" on him.

Personally I might have tried to trade him someone like Jamie Hoffman but it some ways, it just as well they didn't get him.

2006-07-06 15:29:19
159.   King of the Hobos
155 A mediocre reliever who is filling in for Spike Lundberg, who was sent back to Jacksonville for some reason.
2006-07-06 15:30:56
160.   bobbygrich
153 Frankly, he is just someone that got some recent publicity and that their AA folks saw but I also think they wanted to send him out of the league and not to the Dodgers.
2006-07-06 15:32:13
161.   underdog
159 Who or what is a Spike Lundberg?
Sorry, I'll stop.

157 That is correct. It's too bad because I was thinking it would be cool to start calling him Jeff Waiver.

2006-07-06 15:33:23
162.   underdog
160 Could be - he was apparently having a hot streak. But why would the Cards send him to the Dodgers anyway - we weren't trading Jeff Weaver (though it would be fun to try, to see if the Cards noticed).
2006-07-06 15:37:22
163.   scareduck
161 - Spike Lundberg:

An SDSU pitcher (possibly signed as an undrafted free agent by the Rangers), he hasn't ever really mastered AAA, though it looked like he might be worth taking a flyer on during his two stints in the Phillies and Blue Jays organizations. Organizational filler.

2006-07-06 15:37:29
164.   blue22
157/58 - Ah, ok. I thought he was placed on waivers, only to have them rescinded and a trade worked out.

Does that mean StL is on the hook for the full salary (minus any cash involved in the deal)?

2006-07-06 15:38:24
165.   hedgemytickets
Maybe we should have offered the Angels Nomar for Weaver. Isn't this the way Depo and friends would have spent the $8M in JAN 2006? It was/is our pressing need, right?
2006-07-06 15:38:36
166.   King of the Hobos
Nomar is an all star. So is Pierzynski, thanks to his pact with the devil.
2006-07-06 15:39:14
167.   scareduck
161 - LOL on the Jeff Waiver gag. I bet it won't be the last time we hear about this.

Does anyone want to take bets on where Weaver the Elder ends up? And does Weaver the Younger end up as his older brother after a second turn through the league?

2006-07-06 15:39:27
168.   blue22
166 - Neither Liriano nor Hafner makes the squad.


2006-07-06 15:40:01
169.   King of the Hobos
164 Yes, although the Angels are giving them some money.
2006-07-06 15:40:39
170.   scareduck
169 - "some" = $4M or close to it.
2006-07-06 15:41:12
171.   Bob Timmermann
There's still plenty of time for players to get injured. Manny Ramirez is working on an excuse right now.
2006-07-06 15:43:50
172.   King of the Hobos
171 Except Guillen (or whoever has the power to choose) wants Magglio Ordonez to replace him, rather than Hafner or Liriano.
2006-07-06 15:47:22
173.   blue22
172 - Didn't Guillen have some not-so-kind words for Magglio last year? I can't believe he'd go for him over a more deserving Hafner.
2006-07-06 15:47:46
174.   jasonungar05
I wonder why Drews walks and power are down? The shoulder, Eddie Murray or batting in the 4 hole?

A buddy of mine just e-mailed me and said that Drew is "so much better this year, he is gonna have 100 rbi"

Thru 72 games: JD Drew

.286 .412 .520 .931

.290 .380 .477 .857

2006-07-06 15:49:36
175.   blue22
174 - To be fair, he is on pace for over 100 RBI's (unlike last year, inside fastball or no inside fastball).

Maybe he's trying to be more of a "gamer" this year, and playing hurt. He's in a contract year, you know...

2006-07-06 15:50:10
176.   underdog
I voted for Hafner and Liriano in my several votes for Nomar. Praying that AJ Pierz wouldn't be the chosen one. Scary if he is.
Isn't Manny already declared out for the All-Star Game? So hopefully Hafner will get to go in his place. For whatever it's worth.
2006-07-06 15:53:58
177.   King of the Hobos
173 Good point, I was just referencing Rotoworld:

The Red Sox are expected to announce soon that Manny Ramirez will skip the All-Star Game in order to rest his sore right knee.
"I don't think he's going to play," manager Terry Francona said. "Taking three days off will be huge for him." Magglio Ordonez apparently will be the choice to replace him on the roster.

I'm not really sure where they heard that however, as they don't provide a link.

2006-07-06 15:54:15
178.   blue22
174 - Sorry, I misread your quote. I thought that was a pre-season 100-RBI prediction. :-p

Drew will pick it up (or go on the DL). I think he's been nursing an injury (or two).

2006-07-06 15:56:56
179.   blue22
177 - From last year, re: Ordonez:

"He's a piece of [bleep]," Guillen told reporters late last week. "He's another Venezuelan [bleep]. [Bleep] him. He thinks he's got an enemy? No, he's got a big one. He knows I can [bleep] him over in a lot of different ways. He better shut the [bleep] up and just play for the Detroit Tigers."

2006-07-06 15:58:50
180.   gibsonhobbs88
156 - Sorry I should have specified World Series Championships, not just appearances. I was meaning to state that we have 5 Rings to the NoCal's Zilch after moving to the left coast. That is why I was so happy the Angels beat the NoCal's in '02 to keep that particular oneupmanship alive over the hated Battery chuckers!! It's kind of a reverse Cubs fan's wish in that I want to be dead before the Battery Chucker's ever win a World Series. The Giants to me are like the Sith in Star Wars (All that is evil), Just kidding, they aren't as bad as Kim Jong Il of North Korea but they are baseball evil nonetheless!!
2006-07-06 15:59:15
181.   Jon Weisman
165 - Uh, no, that's not how DePo and his friends would have done it. You'll recall that it was DePo that showed Weaver the door, because he didn't feel he was a viable starting pitcher at that cost.
2006-07-06 16:01:03
182.   jasonungar05

I didn't mean to imply that I am unhappy with Drew. Just wondering if will hit another homerun this year! The walk thing was something I noticed, but it could just be that this year he has more hits and the start of last year he HAD to walk cause he was really slumping...

2006-07-06 16:04:54
183.   twerp
129 At one point I wondered about Choi/Saenz platoon also, given who was available. Just looking at '05 numbers, it didn't look bad. 30 HR, 105 RBI for the two.

But at his age and with his back Saenz (15 HR/63 RBI) needed to play less and be available as primary RH pinch hitter. Choi (15/42)was streaky and pretty much a black hole at the plate when he wasn't hot, which was often. See AAA Pawtucket roster, where he's now hitting .207.

Nomar far better as a team leader in addition to possible batting title, only 1 error. 7 all-star picks say he's likely to keep it up if his heatlth holds.

2006-07-06 16:08:37
184.   ssjames
I don't think it has been mentioned yet, but Scott Elbert has been promoted to Jacksonville, seemingly on the Miller/Billingsley plan as far as promotion are working. From what I have read Elbert has a dynamite change up to go with his 95 mph fastball right now. There is a possibility of seeing him the show towards teh end of next year.
2006-07-06 16:11:01
185.   blue22
182 - No, his numbers are down across the board, which is why I think he's playing a bit hurt. He picked up some early RBI's, which explains his 100 RBI pace (which would be a first for him), but he's been disappointing for the most part, based on his standards.
2006-07-06 16:12:03
186.   bobbygrich
181 Jon, are you saying that DePo decided what to do with Jeff Weaver, if so, that can't be because DePo was gone well before the arbitration deadline, which Ned offered and Jeff ultimately declined.
2006-07-06 16:15:21
187.   dsfan

Thanks for the update. Truly, it was a pleasure to read that a frontline Dodgers pitching prospect issued no walks in an outing of any length. It's like every one of their top pitching prospects the last few years has been good for one walk every 2-2.5 minor-league innings.

2006-07-06 16:17:09
188.   hedgemytickets
181 - I don't think Depo had the opportunity for the 1 year/$8M deal and I don't think he could/should have turned it down. But thats all speculation. However, once upon a time, he showed Odalis the door but then opened it back up for the tune of $24M.
2006-07-06 16:17:32
189.   JoeyP
Isn't this the way Depo and friends would have spent the $8M in JAN 2006?

Actually no, at least not for Jeff Weaver.
You'll recall that DePo extended Brad Penny last summer, but did not extend Weaver even though Weaver was begging for an extension through the media.

If anything, it was Colletti that did in fact at least risk spending 8mil on Jeff Weaver. He offered Weaver arbitration, which meant if Weaver had taken it, the Dodgers would be shelling out 8+ mils on another garbage pitcher.

Frankly, the more specific I look at things, the worse Colletti gets.

2006-07-06 16:23:41
190.   Jon Weisman
186 - Basically, what 189 says. It was clear that DePo had no intention of giving significant money to Weaver.

188 - I don't think that DePo was ever as clear about his feelings about Perez as he was about Weaver. But I could be wrong about that.

2006-07-06 16:23:53
191.   hedgemytickets
189 - You're looking at results, not thought process. At 1 year/$8M, Jeff Weaver was a solid free agent pick up. He certainly wasn't garbage at the time of the signing.
2006-07-06 16:24:04
192.   JoeyP
However, once upon a time, he showed Odalis the door but then opened it back up for the tune of $24M.

How did he show Odalis the door?
Did he decline arbitration and then sign him to an extension? I cant recall.
I do recall DePo not tendering Finley, which was a brilliant move considering the external pressure surrounding it.

The guy made some tough decisions, with non-tendering Finley and not matching Beltre. Shedding's portion of Green's deal, locking up Derek Lowe, these were important moves that made a difference in terms of the direction of the franchise.

I think another point about Colletti is that the situation he entered was much easier. He hasnt really had to make many difficult decisions. I think Weaver might have been his hardest, and that gamble paid off. Although, its a gamble I wouldnt have risked.

2006-07-06 16:24:12
193.   blue22
189 - I think many here would've taken Weaver back via arbitration, given the pitching talent available in free agency. A 1-year deal at $8M sounded pretty good, considering.

No one expected Weaver to melt down to Erickson-proportions.

2006-07-06 16:27:21
194.   FirstMohican
189 - Weaver made over 9M in '05. Wouldn't this mean that he'd make a bit more than 8M through arbitration?

Re: Odalis vs. Weaver: Odalis did have 2 pretty solid years compared to Weavers' 1 solid year with Detroit (solid being above league average). That's not to say that Odalis' contract is fair.

(Just got back from vacation, and yes, I checked up on Dodger Thoughts from internet cafes in Cusco, Peru. I just can't vacation without analysis and debate of things like Dioner Navarro getting traded.)

2006-07-06 16:27:51
195.   JoeyP
At 1 year/$8M, Jeff Weaver was a solid free agent pick up. He certainly wasn't garbage at the time of the signing

So a pitcher with an ERA of 4.50+, that has never had a great season, is worth 1yr 8mils? I'd disagree.

Even if Weaver had an average Weaver year (4.50+ERA, not the 6.30+ disaster of this year), it'd be a bad deal.

Weaver isnt a difference maker. If Tomko's a bad deal at 4.5 mils bc he isnt a difference maker (and I believe signing Tomko was dumb), then Weaver at 8mils would have been much worse.

I'd never ever spend money on players that make no difference. And innings-eaters rarely make a difference.

There's a reason why DePo didnt extend Weaver but did extend OP. Weaver had never had any good seasons, but OP had. DePo usually went with the guy with higher upside (Lowe/Penny/OP) Thats something Ned hasnt done.

2006-07-06 16:28:07
196.   dsfan

Depo, according to Gammons, offered Nomar three years/$27 million the previous offseason to play 2B and was turned down.

2006-07-06 16:28:13
197.   Bob Timmermann
I just thought I would point out that the highest batting average among the nine players in the Padres starting lineup tonight belongs to Chan Ho Park.
2006-07-06 16:28:37
198.   thinkingblue
Ok, how did AJ get the final spot in the AL? He had to be the least deserving of the 5.
2006-07-06 16:30:09
199.   Bob Timmermann
The White Sox ran a good campaign for Pierzynski. Its theme was "Punch AJ!"

You've got to admit that that was a great slogan.

There's also a tendency for people to vote for the name they recognize.

2006-07-06 16:32:46
200.   FirstMohican
195 - In defense of Weaver, he had a good overall '02 season. And while with the Dodgers had a 4.01 and 4.22 ERA while being debatably (...ahem) mishandled by Jim Tracy.
Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2006-07-06 16:36:35
201.   Kayaker7
197 That's why he entered a game a week ago as a pinch hitter.
2006-07-06 16:37:17
202.   dsfan

How strange to criticize Colletti for a move that made sense and did the franchise good. By offering Weaver arbitration, Colletti got the Dodgers two high-end draft picks at no cost.
Colletti should be celebrated for letting the Boras Kool-Aid pass, something other Dodgers GMs wish they had done.
He basically called Boras' bluff and won. Boras was saying the Dodgers should accept a discounted deal at about 3 years/$27 million. On all fronts, this was a victory. If you're saying that Colletti took on too much risk, the results say otherwise. At the time, there were reports that the Mariners and Mets were interested in giving Weaver multiple guaranteed years. One of Colletti's purported strengths is a strong network within the industry. It's my believe such information informed a prudent decision. As a bonus to the draft picks, he subtracted a Boras client. Too many of those on one team can be a problem, as past Dodgers GMs can attest.

2006-07-06 16:37:24
203.   screwballin
165 I know DePo is Satan and all, but would we rather have LoDuca and Mota right now instead of Penny?

Sure, LoDuca is an all-star, but I'd rather have Martin any day. And without Penny, this team would be just bad.

LoDuca did bend a spoon once using nothing more than his charisma, though, so that's pretty cool.

2006-07-06 16:38:09
204.   Bluebleeder87
I think Nomar rather just kick it at home than go to the all-star game no? (been there done that) am I wrong for saying that?
2006-07-06 16:39:00
205.   Bluebleeder87


2006-07-06 16:42:30
206.   Paul Scott
There is no spoon.
2006-07-06 16:42:38
207.   screwballin
204 The best guess would be "yes" and "yes." It's been said that just about every player would love the days off, but none of them want to be left off the all-star list.
2006-07-06 16:43:00
208.   jasonungar05
As bad as Tomko is, just about 90 percent of the people here (I wasn't one of them), at the time said, you know what I will take Tomko at 3.6 million in 2006 over Weaver at 8 million in 2006. I learn alot here. Hell I used to think Nolan Ryan was better than Tom Glavine or Greg Maddux.

Tomko 6-6 with a 5.52 era 1.39 whip
Weaver 3-10 with a 6.26 era 1.52 whip

2006-07-06 16:44:18
209.   Paul Scott

Sorry, but I don't understand terms like "black hole" "streaky" and "team leader." Can you translate those into runs? Thanks.

2006-07-06 16:45:09
210.   confucius
Lofton back in CF tonight. If I were playing for the Giants I'd be trying to lift every pitch I saw.
2006-07-06 16:48:54
211.   thinkingblue
There's a reason why DePo didnt extend Weaver but did extend OP. Weaver had never had any good seasons, but OP had. DePo usually went with the guy with higher upside (Lowe/Penny/OP) Thats something Ned hasnt done.

Oh, so now we credit DePodesta for extending Perez, who wasn't even wanted by Paul, but signed because he couldn't get the pitcher he wanted.

2006-07-06 16:49:23
212.   Jon Weisman
208 - I would have taken D.J. Houlton over either at $327,500 - say what you will about me.

New thread up top! Rebirth!

2006-07-06 16:50:44
213.   thinkingblue
Can you translate those into runs? Thanks.

Please, let Choi go.

2006-07-06 16:51:34
214.   TheRedMenace
"Black Hole" roughly translates into utter and complete absence of offensive production (See Hee Slop's current numbers.)

"Streaky" indicates frequent and pervasive occurrences of "Black Hole" episodes.

"Team leader" has many meanings, one of which is something akin to a guy on your team who the other members of the team don't look at and say "how in the world did this stiff get on our team."
2006-07-06 16:52:15
215.   thinkingblue
I would have taken D.J. Houlton over either at $327,500

With what he did last year, and what he's doing at LV? Yikes!

2006-07-06 16:52:59
216.   Paul Scott

That was my feeling as well, though more directed at Seo, not Tomko. I was hoping we would pick up one of the better FA pitchers, but when that did not happen, I was happy with the Tomko signing. Less so with Seo trade I (and then even more less so with Seo trade II - or more correctly the Navarro trade).

2006-07-06 16:53:03
217.   JoeyP
If you're saying that Colletti took on too much risk, the results say otherwise.

The results have nothing to do with the risk that was involved.
There was a risk that Weaver would accept arbitration (in fact he should have considering what he was offered in the free agent market). If Colletti was so sure that Weaver would get a multi-year deal and thus would decline arbitration, then that would have been a good move to tender arbitration, have Weaver decline, and collect the picks. But in fact, that didnt happen. Colletti was very lucky that Weaver somehow declined arbitration, even though he still didnt get a multi-year deal.

Wouldnt the safest play be to offer a player arbitration with confidence that they'll for sure decline it? How could Colletti have confidence that Weaver would decline it? If anything, Colletti believed what Boras was telling him (that Weaver had offers from other clubs), and Boras ended up being full of hot air bc Weaver didnt get any offers.

I think the risk (paying Weaver 9mils for 2006), outweighed the reward (31st pick in the draft).

It definitely worked. It was a win for the Dodgers in the end. But I think it was very risky at the same time.

There was a similar debate when Finley was up for arbitration, and I was against offering him that for fear he might take it. Of course, he actually did get a multi-year deal, so maybe the best decision would have been to tender him. But again, the risk in that situation outweighed the reward IMO, so I thought it was the right move to non-tender Finley.

2006-07-06 16:53:04
218.   TheRedMenace
213 - You are a smarter man than I.
2006-07-06 16:53:55
219.   Paul Scott

So, then, no you can't translate those into runs. Assumed as much.

2006-07-06 16:55:22
220.   JoeyP
Oh, so now we credit DePodesta for extending Perez, who wasn't even wanted by Paul, but signed because he couldn't get the pitcher he wanted.

Besides Derek Lowe, which other pitcher was DePo targeting that he couldnt get, and thus forced him to take Odalis Perez as a fall back option?

Even though OP had a terrible playoff series against STL, DePo was pretty good at not allowing small sample sizes to sway his overall value of a player. Even though Derek Lowe might have been the first priority, that doesnt mean that OP wasnt thought of at all.

2006-07-06 16:57:03
221.   thinkingblue
Frankly, the more specific I look at things, the worse Colletti gets

Joey, we got free draft picks for Jeff Weaver because we offered him arbitration, don't you think that was a good move?

2006-07-06 16:57:41
222.   Jon Weisman
215 - Stuff like that keeps me humble.

But what Houlton did last year is almost exactly what Tomko is doing this year. Houlton was nearly replacement level last year (-1.1 VORP), and I figured he'd improve. As it turned out, Tomko has more or less fulfilled expectations and been about a replacement level pitcher this season (1.4 VORP) - with an almost even mix of good starts and bad, I believe.

Tomko just never seemed like a good signing to me To save the millions, I would have bet on Houlton.

2006-07-06 16:58:35
223.   Andrew Shimmin
217- You're ignoring the market. You can't just compare the outcomes (good=declining arb, bad=accepting it), you've got to compare the likelihood of each with the value of the outcome.

There was very little chance of Weaver taking arbitration (no matter how bad it would have been, forseeable or not, if he had) because the FA market for SPs was so depressed. It didn't work out for him, but there was good reason for him to assume he'd do better as a FA than with arbitration. If he had a different agent, he probably would have.

2006-07-06 16:59:36
224.   thinkingblue
Besides Derek Lowe, which other pitcher was DePo targeting that he couldnt get, and thus forced him to take Odalis Perez as a fall back option?

Brad Radke, who decided to go back to the Twins for one.

DePo was pretty good at not allowing small sample sizes to sway his overall value of a player

And yet, he signed Derek Lowe, and many felt that was because of his playoff run.

But, I will give DePodesta credit for Lowe, because it has worked out, so I'm not gonna complain about the signing.

2006-07-06 16:59:59
225.   Jon Weisman
217 - I made that same argument about Finley multiple times.
2006-07-06 17:01:39
226.   JoeyP
Joey, we got free draft picks for Jeff Weaver because we offered him arbitration, don't you think that was a good move?

It was a good result of an extremely risky move.
Would I hope he does the same thing in a similar situation? No.

2006-07-06 17:03:22
227.   JoeyP
And yet, he signed Derek Lowe, and many felt that was because of his playoff run.

I believe it had more to do with his career peripherals than anything.

2006-07-06 17:07:06
228.   Andrew Shimmin
Hee Seop Choi is the football right? Or is he Lucy? I forget sometimes.
2006-07-06 17:08:07
229.   Bluebleeder87
Did you see that poor guy falling on TBS? it was poring rain in the Dugout & the guy hit the ground pretty hard! (really funny)
2006-07-06 17:12:42
230.   JoeyP
There was very little chance of Weaver taking arbitration

I could never be sure for a couple reasons.
#1. Weaver was making I think 9.5 mils. Going to arbitration, very rarely does one get a pay cut. So it was likely, even a modest raise would be applied, perhaps 10mils.

#2. I didnt think anyone would give Weaver a multi-year deal at 10mils per, so at least for the 2006 season, if he had accepted arbitration, he'd be profiting. Of course, he'd also forfeit some type of security that a multi-year deal would have given him.

#3. So now what does Weaver do? Does he play for 10mils a year, in his prime, and have another year of free agency next winter. Or does he cash in and take a 3yr 28mils contract? I just wasnt so sure Weaver would decline, bc wouldnt he think (if he has confience in his abilities), that he could put together a better 2006 than 2005, and be that much more attractive to clubs the following winter. His 2005 really wasnt that special (although granted the pitching market is thin).

It was never clear cut (to me), but maybe the Boras factor of pushing all his players into free agency made others more confident of Weaver declining arbitration.

2006-07-06 17:27:58
231.   scareduck
230 - I think you're right on his salary, so unless I'm mistaken, all he could have gotten was a 10% pay cut, or a little more than $8.5M -- which he didn't even get from the Angels as a free agent. The Dodgers knew he was worth much less than that, so it was a huge gamble for them to even offer arbitration. Luckily, Boras was greedy enough that he figured Weaver should have gotten something like $9M+.

If Weaver is smart, he'll end up working for a National League team that has a solid pitcher's park and needs a back-of-the-rotation starter, for not a lot of money -- $3M, tops. The two clubs that come immediately to mind are the Padres and Giants, but I hear that Busch III or whatever it's called is turning out to be a pitcher's park. Marlins could be a go as well, as could the Mets if they haven't fixed their rotation woes by the end of the season and they don't mind Weaver's previous baggage with the Yankees.

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