Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Jon's other site:
Screen Jam
TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Offensively, the Dodgers are sixth in the major leagues (and first in the National League) in Value Over Replacement Player, according to Baseball Prospectus, despite being tied for 28th in home runs. That's because despite the long-ball shortfall, the team is fifth in the majors in on-base percentage. Walks do make the men - the team is fifth in that category, showing how valuable it is just to keep an inning going.
A home run infusion would make the Dodgers a real powerhouse - assuming it didn't cut into the OBP. On the other hand, if the OBP falls without that power infusion, look out below.
To make matters more precarious, the team has been leading the NL with a .308 batting average with runners in scoring position.
Meanwhile, compare the Dodger stats to those of the Boston Red Sox. The two teams have nearly identical VORPs, even though Boston has hit 35 more home runs and has advantages of .012 in OBP and .028 in slugging. As always, ballpark factors matter.
Makes the Dodger starting pitching woes seem even more woeful, though.
* * *
I see a 44-41 record that has resulted from:
--many dodger players hitting above what they should hit considering their LD%
--Penny/Lowe/Sele being as good as they each are probably going to be
--Bullpen always a question mark with no Gagne
What could improve the Dodgers in the 2nd half? Where's the improvement going to come from when these other factors regress to more normal levels?
The only thing i could think of is replacing izturis with laroche and replacing lofton with kemp or loney.
Laroche > izturis
Kemp or loney > lofton
Also an improvement from billingsley.
Other than that i don't know what to tell you.
(The Dodgers have 18 more triples.) What I see is that they consistently score runs. Someone can look this up to see if it's true but its seems that they always score 4-5 runs a game.(not literally) Not like some teams that have huge games scoring double digits and then only scoring a couple a game later.
I could see a little improvement if the right decisions are made (improving cf and 3b), plus billingsley improving, kent and drew start hitting homers and furcal has a lot of room to improve.
But to tell you the truth, i highly doubt the team wins 90 games, and i highly doubt the team wins less than 81 games.
I bet we are looking at 85 wins give or take 1 or 2, 83-87 wins.
But if ned/grady sticks with izturis and lofton, this team will sit at 500% in my opinion.
And that's why i keep saying that ned overdid it with acquiring mediocre veterans, but if he can unload some mediocre veterans in favor of the prospects staying/promoted then forget the overdid it thing.
For the last several weeks, I've been saying to friends that my goals for this season are:
1. 85 wins
2. Lots and lots of major league AB for the kids.
These goals would mean that the team won more games than they lost (duh) and that the prospects would have experienced a full year of ML ball.
If they go further, great. I would definitely love to attend a playoff game. But I share the fears in 1.
85 wins.
Lots of AB for the kids.
---Ethier/Martin will tank in the 2nd half. Martin hits the ball on the ground too much, he'll be worn out by August/Sept. Ethier's the luckiest guy in the game. It wont last either.
--Drew/Kent/Nomar will remain about where they are at. They've been consistent (except for Kent's 1st month). I dont see any change either way.
--Furcal- maybe this guy got a big contract and just quit working on his game. Maybe he doesnt hit in the cage enough, or concentrate while he's fielding. Whatever it is I dont expect him to improve that much.
--KLoft--he'll die in August (not literally die, but as a player he'll be done by then)
--Kemp/Billingsley--they'll be sent down, and when that happens the 2006 season will be officially useless in terms of either winning big or developing the youngsters. It'll be a repeat of 2005, except sub some vets in for the AAAA players we had last year.
The pitching staff will be about the same the rest of the season. Penny/Lowe will be really good. The rest of them...dont ask.
I'll say final record of 79-83.
Is SARS, combined with a gigantic meteor going to wipe out the human race as well?
ps I don't know if I spelled that right.
* Nomar will keep up and end the season batting at least .340.
* Odalis Perez will be a decent middle reliever.
* Izturis will be traded for a pitcher. The quality of that pitcher will make a 4-5 win difference for the Dodgers' overall record.
* Ned Colletti's trade success ratio is even lower than his free agent success ratio, so it is reasonable to assume he will make one more good trade before McCourt fires him.
* Andre Ethier will be the first player whose uniform number has a decimal point.
* Hee Seop Choi will hit a home run against the Dodgers in his first at-bat as a Padre, then strike out the next 5 times.
* Kenny Lofton and JD Drew will both go down with injuries, prompting me to say this is why we should have offered Drew for Beltre while it was stil possible.
* Joel Guzman will redeem himself and appear to be a competent major leaguer.
* Sandy Alomar will never again call a game for the Dodgers, helping the Dodgers' team ERA drop.
* Rafael Furcal will end the year with more stolen bases than errors. However, he will strike out more than he scores.
* Brad Penny will win 20 games.
* Chad Billingsley will have a winning record for 2006.
* The Dodgers will not win 90 games, but will break 82, probably going for 86.
* The New York Mets will collapse and make a nice, stupid panic move that favors the Dodgers.
* Lastings Milledge is the next Darryl Strawberry.
It'll be neat if/when those two face off as #1 pitchers a few times a year.
Now, my wife is at tonight's game with my older son. My little guy is asleep. Meaning, you see, I have the house to myself. I've got a bottle of wine open, some really hot andouille sausages on the grill, even (I'll admit it) tator tots in the oven!
And what happens. Woody Williams and Ramon Ortiz (Ramon Ortiz!) are just moving people down and the game is half over already.
Oh wait, Ortiz starting to melt down.
It worries me.
http://tinyurl.com/ka89a
I am basically with you on this subject Marty. People should refrain from over analyzing things. When it comes down to it, it just ruins baseball when everything in your belief system comes down to whether one is lucky or not. You watch baseball because you enjoy the game itself, the numbers and stats and analyzation of them should be secondary.
thats just my view on it, not expecting anyone else to agree with me.
Why? So I can end up looking back at them and realize how dumb they are? If you try to predict the future, you are in all liklihood, going to fail because there are to many variables you have to factor in. Trust me, I know this from reading most of your baseball predictions the last 2-3 years.
I'll just stick to minor league baseball.
Well Gagne will make at least 1 million next season. With the contract buyout and all.
So he's going to beat women and use coke? Or are you talking about as a player?
I can definately see that if ned/grady stick with izturis and lofton.
78-82 wins with izturis and lofton starting at 3b and cf.
Also, even if Drew and Furcal are getting the hits their line drive % says they should, that doesn't mean they won't start hitting more line drives, and thus getting more hits, without any improvement in "luck," as they regress to their established levels of performance.
I'm interested in the comments about BABIP started by Marty. I'm wondering if it's so bad. What it comes down to is assigning a number to an adjective, lucky, that we've all used since we were kids. Thirty years ago, if Rick Auerbach went on a tear or Burt Hooton went into a slump, we might say they were lucky or unlucky. This just augments that.
If what you're saying is that it ruins the enjoyment of Andre Ethier's hot streak, well, I guess I can understand that. But if he slumps, that ruined enjoyment was inevitable, and if he keeps it up, well, great news!
Anytime Marty threatens to feel bad, I get real nervous. But I'm hoping this isn't as bad as it seems.
Having Kent in there is a nice change - just hope it's not premature.
What unexpected power? LaRoche, not Aybar please.
The bleak forecasts for the remainder of '06 for the Dodgers rely, in part, on several players with better than expected first halves regressing to the mean offensively.
But does it throw your calculations off when you assess the incredibly crappy pitching that seems to plague almost every team in the National League? The presumed favorite to represent the league in the World Series is pitching Jose Lima tonight. The other presumed favorite just traded for Jeff Weaver.
With the Twins, A's and Angels no longer facing the Dodgers, we will face very few solid pitching rotations from now until the end of the season. I can't think of a single pitcher the Dodgers will face who scares me as much as the pitchers we just got done with, like Zito, Lackey, Santana and Liriano. Okay maybe Chris Young, Schmidt, Carpenter and Webb.
But Aaron Sele has the 7th best ERA in the NL right now. The NL is a cupcake league! A lineup with Kent, Drew, Nomar, Furcal and either Kemp or Ethier firing on all cylinders should be able to do just fine against most of the mostly crappy pitchers they'll see the rest of the way. Es verdad?
78-82 wins with izturis and lofton starting at 3b and cf
If we consistantly see a line up with Izturis, Lofton, AND Furcal, we'll probably finish with 83-85 wins because the NL sucks.
What?!?
(scurries off to find leader boards)
She likes baeball, though in some degree of moderation.
I, like you lot, don't manage the baseball moderation thing quite as well. Or at least my moderation doesn't mean exactly the same thing as hers.
41 - What do you think?
And it's official, Gagne is undergoing back surgery according to Inside the Dodgers. No Gagne this year. He'll be ready for . . . spring training.
Unfortunately for him, he's not getting support. The Devil Rays have struck out 10 times in 6 innings . . . to Jaret Wright.
You can say that again. If Kent tears or seriously strains the oblique we have, as my Dad likes to say, trouble in River City. (though I still don't know what it means.)
Hey Sam, very important questions here. Are you going with Ketchup or BBQ Sauce on the Tots?
http://tinyurl.com/b34st
From The Music Man.
Also, I'm glad that Sam's wife went to the game. My only World Series experience was when I went with my mother while my dad stayed home because there was only two tickets. It was a special day for me and I hope his son gets as much fun out of it.
Does anyone else think Russ Martin looks like he's pressing lately? He's swinging at a lot of bad balls and just regressing a little at the plate. Maybe it's just a slump, or perhaps he could use a day off now and then.
Does anyone else think it surprising that Pedro Astacio and Jose Lima are still pitching somewhere, and not in a Jose Canseco-ish league? I'll take my answers off the air. Thank you. {click}
I'm not supprised, Dontrell is a good hitter
Seems reasonable to me. Your premise is that the NL pitching is pretty soft. No argument here. Against all that mediocre pitching out there, it's reasonable to expect Furcal-Drew-Nomar-Kent perform to career norms, which sets up some things for the whole offense. But it seems as likely that one or two of those guys hits the DL in the second half.
I've made a point of collecting these things as received in change, not buying them from all the various near-scam operators. I've got every one from 1999 (1st year) forward.
Now back to baseball.
61. Marty, on Monday night I took my daughter and my Mom to the game. Mom's first trip to a MLB game in 35+ years. (I dragged her to some PawSox games when I was in high school) It was great. My daughter stars rooting for Shawn Green and my Mom starts rooting too. Only she is yelling at the wrong player. We are all teasing her but she could not have cared less. The idea of being at the game with her grandaughter while they screamed for her favorite player was all that mattered.
He asked me:
"Why does everybody boo Shawn Green?" My response: "The average Dodger fan isn't very bright."
The Houstonian also noted that Dodger fans really get into Kiss Cam more than people in Houston. Out there, couples give each other a quick peck. On July 4th, I thought some of the couples were going to get to know each other in the Biblical sense.
I've seen "Music Man" a bunch of times and heard the soundtrack dozens of times, but a lot that was because a brother of mine was in a production of it in high school.
He played the Buddy Hackett role.
Yeah, I know, it doesn't scan.
Other songs: 76 Trombones and Till There Was You (which the Beatles covered on "Meet the Beatles.")
I have three older brother. One of them actually had some acting talent.
Trust me, I know the lyrics to "Shapoopie." I've heard it enough.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0056262/
Bob beat me, but I've got the gameday goods:
"Mike Cameron strikes out swinging and Josh Barfield caught stealing home, catcher Robert Fick to second baseman Jose Vidro to catcher Robert Fick to third baseman Ryan Zimmerman to first baseman Nick Johnson to shortstop Royce Clayton to third baseman Ryan Zimmerman."
Meredith Wilson created the worst stereotype for people in my profession.
I am still waiting to work with someone who is as attractive as a young Shirley Jones.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longest_baseball_game
https://griddle.baseballtoaster.com/archives/352439.html
Years ago, I wrote a spec episode of the Drew Carey Show called "The Musak Man." That one didn't get me any jobs, though.
No doubt Jon is feeling a kinship with Tampa Bay's DH by calling himself Jonny.
Last weekend, I was in my car at a light and I tried to turn around and get something out of my backseat. And I tried to turned further than nature intended so I assume I tweaked an oblique muscle.
The term I used to describe that pain can be heard on next Sunday's "Deadwood" episode.
Sorry, I couldn't come up with a funnier way to say it than that.
In that case...
My girlfriend was close to becoming an alternate juror on the case where they are trying the guys who went around Skid Row beating up homeless men with baseball bats because they thought it would be fun to do.
The trial was about to start when one of the defense attorneys started chatting with her for no good reason. The judge kicked her and another alternate off the case after that.
She's a teacher, so she has to do jury duty on her vacation and it doesn't have the same allure as it does for a civil servant like me.
Listening without giving an opinion or being able to talk about what is going on is not something that would suit her.
I'm one of those weirdos who has liked jury duty, despite the inconvenience. I've had three interesting cases, though.
I've liked jury duty, but my job lets me do it pretty much anytime and I can serve indefinitely.
But I've only been on two cases that went to deliberations: an eviction and an armed robbery by a young man who likely had no idea what his friend was getting him into.
Fookie walks!
But that was a deep hit, and if we keep the young guys in a couple of years that would make it 2-1. Good times to come if we don't panic and givew up the future. after all the guys we rely on right now are damn old.
He is the true BJ.
But that was a deep hit, and if we keep the young guys in a couple of years that would make it 2-1. Good times to come if we don't panic and give up the future. After all the guys we rely on right now are damn old.
Swine and miss=greased Pig competition
Or so they said in 2004..
LOL!
Durham should be retired by now.
I was just going to say this. Since when did Morris become a junkballer? He used to throw around 94 mph and now he throws curveball after curveball.
Drew extends to 13
Weather: 82 degrees, clear.
Wind: 10 mph, out to center.
An .800+ OPS disqualifies you from Grabowski Priniciple consideration, I should think.
My PTIAL (please trade izturis and lofton) campaign might be ruined.
LOL!
Also, I don't know why Ray Durham gets no love. He has more home runs than Jeff Kent.
just kidding :)
Now if Jason Ellison and Jose Vizcaino come in and start hitting taters, then we've got some serious GP action.
He'd be like the reverse Babe Ruth.
Matt Morris has a four year deal?
Brian Sabean is awesome.
true story.
What's Billingsley's velocity tonight?
Apparently not high enough to get it by Bonds.
Yes, I will run that joke into the ground.
Of course, Martinez could have moved up and just been playing in Martinez.
http://tinyurl.com/m7a6c
And yes, this guy writes an entire blog dedicated to Gatorade.
Ethier 6HRs
Ramon 1HR
Izzy 0HR
Martin 4HR
Grady said when Rich Donnelly jumps up in the air and doesn't come down.
I agree. Little's humor is sooo much better then Tracy's.....whatever.
Payton's numbers last year were a fluke. Kendall stinks and Crosby has not progressed. A lot of players are underperforming (Johnson and Ellis). They have also been dealing with injuries.
We didn't start the fire...Ethier did.
I apologize to Gio. I will now send him a fruit basket (south park reference)
I couldn't think of anything else.
How can you let Morris bat with the bases loaded in the 6th inning of a game in which he has basically stunk in?
I'm heterosexual, I swear.
Hey Tony La Russa let Matt Morris bat in the 8th inning of a playoff game with 2 outs against Curt Schilling!
I've seen some bad managing, but I think tonite might just be the worst I've seen this year.
Of course, now we know where Tracy learned all of his nonsense.
theres one...
What particularly bad things does Bruce Bochy do?
mysterious lol
Please, pour it on.
The giants should worry about their own dam manager before they pick on ours.
Now Grits invokes the stupid bunter principle on a guy thats obviously done.
My friend who is an A's fan loves Ethier. She is becoming a dodger fan after I got her to pick up our prospects for her keeper league.
Has she ever kissed a girl?
Wait, that question only work for Trekkies and only if it's William Shatner doing the asking.
Not to my knowledge.
Stupid teams do not deserve to win.
Oh so you now you're going to try that old trick again.
You people and your use of numbers! In my day, when your elders said there were 14 games over, there were 14 games over and we didn't take any backtalk!
Kids today...
I am positive that Vizquel never stole 80 bases. Maybe he walked or struck out 80 times. Vin is looking in the wrong column.
Its possible Felipe was asleep during the top of the 6th. He is pretty old.
Everybody has to stand in fair territory except for the catcher.
My main problem is that the one's I've made so far are too chunky and start out very foamy.
Will Drew ever hit another HR
Is there any way to avoid the froth or do I just have to wait for it to settle? Does putting it in the fridge/freezer for a bit help?
When the ball is put in play at the start of, or during a game, all fielders other than the catcher shall be on fair territory.
There is no penalty attached for violating the rule. All that would happen is that the umpire would tell the player to stand in fair territory before letting the game continue.
make sure you put an umbrella in it. you can't have girl drinks without an umbrella.
When he pours, he reigns.
Is Olmedo going to be the hero?
Coughlin's law: never show surprise, never lose your cool.
Olmedo has to hit him.
Tomato looked rotten there.
;)
Rachel Ward is still hot to me.
I'd almost rather have Izturis up instead of Old Maid against a right handed pitcher.
Nobody good enough coming up for Baez to plunk
Ladies and gentlemen, please make sure you remain seated and keep your arms inside the vehicle for the duration of the ride.
"Your tests came back from the lab negative"
is the eight word counterpoint.
When she cut her hair for Against All Odds, that's when she turned the corner.
"Negative? Oh, my God. WHY! WHY! WHY? What? What? Negative is good? Oh, yes of course! How stupid of me. Thank you. Thank you very much."
Against All Odds came out in 1984, so that's a long downward stretch you have for Rachel Ward.
Back in the day when your number corresponded with your spot in the lineup, did you have to switch your uniform everyday?
No.
1. Bunting against Baez
2. Kemp bunting
As soon as Bob says go, we'll start the race to see who can answer first.
Si Quaeris Peninsulam Amoenam Circumspice!
I watch way too much Seinfeld
"And that's why you don't have a power hitter bunt!"
Whooo Nomar.
A Grits, divided against itself, cannot stand.
Thanks for the lesson, J. Walter Weisman.
Good, lets give him 15 wins. That will for sure make him a type A free agent.
You could ask me for proof if you need it. But the Yankees teams that did that thing with the numbers quickly found that their players were in the wrong order. They just used the lineup order numbers as a starting point.
And it wasn't like there were a bunch of number 9s sitting around for the pitchers.
With a 4.29 ERA. And even worse peripherals.
Any word on how tonight's bingo game went?
Or you could just stick Toby Hall in the outfield and flop him depending upon the batter.
Ethier fouled a ball off his foot and looked to be in discomfort.
He got better.
Its the Dodgers nite.
Bold prediction: Saito will get Bonds to hit a weak groundball.
Correction, the game was at Candlestick.
Oh please, oh please.
Oye como va mi ritmo
Bueno pa gosar mulata
Oye como va mi ritmo
Bueno pa gosar mulata
Repeat
Oye como va mi ritmo? Bueno pa gozar, mulata.
Oye como va mi ritmo? Bueno pa gozar, mulata.
Louie Louie, Oh, Babe
We gotta go now
Ya Ya Ya Ya Ya Ya
http://www.kissthisguy.com/
Loney: .383
Kendrick: .369
Or "If you wanna kiss this guy, better learn how to kneel. On your knees boy."
Giants announcers never miss the opportunity to rag Dodgers players or fans with their screen pens. Vin always takes the stinking high road.
I feel like Sonny, sometimes I need a wartime consigliere.
Bye y'all.
Vinny always tells it like it is, no matter who he's talking about. I like that.
Vinny always tells it like it is, no matter who he's talking about. I like that.
Not really. I'm all talk.
is quickly becoming
has quickly become
you can't have it both ways!
Well, I thought it was interesting anyway.
Only Kidding--Please.
I can't imagine him anywhere else, and I can only hope that he'll come back at a discount and return to form. That won't happen, though, and as Izturis is inevitably traded, and Odalis Perez is dropped off on a curb somewhere, this will not be the team that got me excited in 2004. I know the future of the organization is bright, but what will actually happen? I shudder to think that the Dodgers will grow players for other teams like Oakland does, or as been the recent tradition, trade off franchise players to the Marlins. I don't want Russell Martin to be the next Mets catcher. I don't want the Dodgers to break something that works.
All the frustrations that come with being a Dodger fan - 1 playoff win in the last 18 years, Kevin Malone's tenure as GM, Paul Konerko, Darren Dreifort - are in their own way unique. Yet they're what make being a Dodger fan more special than being a Braves fan just because you have TBS, a Yankees fan for all the overpaid guys, or a Red Sox fan because you're still buying into the underdog thing. These frustrations all remind you that fans have been calling this blue team the bums for generations before I was alive.
Here's some proof
http://tinyurl.com/mas8l
Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.