My instinct is often one of vigilance, of not wanting to give up on a problem that can be solved. But maybe not every problem is meant to be solved.

I just forget that I tried to solve the problem and end up going to the hardware store to buy my seventh identical crescent wrench to fix something that I can't fix.

And all I can really do with a crescent wrench is hammer with it.

I think there's an Odalis Perez parallel in there somewhere.

Jon, curious what your thoughts are on JD Drew's season?

Also, once he comes off the DL, A Cesar Izturis for Morgan Ensberg swap (prospects involved as well) makes sense for both teams. Any chance Astros trade him after the Huff deal? what does Ensberg's contract look like?

Nice job Jon, I think we have all been waiting for this blowup by Odalis and the fact it took two months was surprising.

I appreciate how you are able to take a controversial topic like Odalis and put some humanity and compassion into the discussion.

I am still trying to figure out where it all went wrong but he had those two back to back poor starts then he went down to see his mom and then he was out of the rotation.

Maybe this all stems from what went on during spring training when the team wanted him to pitch prior to leaving for the WBC. I still think that the WBC had an impact on the pitchers who went there and Odalis never got back in good graces with management after that.

So, I was trying to figure out if there's a stat one can look at to determine whether or not it is "worth" walking a particular hitter. At first, I thought to myself, "If a player's SLG is less than one, you're better off pitching to him because, on average, he doesn't make it to first base." But then I realized that SLG doesn't include BBs, HBPs, etc.

Which makes me wonder: is there a stat out there that reports a player's average outcome of all PAs, not just some? OBP tells us whether or not a PA ends in getting on base or making an out, but doesn't tell us anything about total bases. SLG tells us about total bases, but only with respect to hits.

This stat (call it a "D4P") would seemingly enable us to determine whether or not it's worth pitching to a hitter or not. For example, if a hitter's D4P was greater than 1, that would suggest that the average outcome of all that hitter's PAs involved making it past 1st base. In such a case, then, it might make sense to walk the hitter every time, because that would lower his D4P to 1.

Does such a stat exist, and if not why not? If so, why is it not more prominent?

Not only is this problem not meant to be solved, it's unsolvable. Perez has nothing. And he's had nothing for a long time. I'm sure most scouts would tell you the same. He throws up almost nothing but very hittable soap bubbles. One of the few DePo moves I completely disagreed with was him re-signing OP. I seem to recall the Dodgers being really desperate for another starter. Too bad. Now they're saddled with OP. He might be crafty enough to make it as an expensive LOOGY, but I doubt it.

1 I don't know how many times I have used a wrench as a hammer.

Odalis Perez: The Wagon Queen Family Truckster. You think you hate it now, but wait till you drive it.

He might be crafty enough to make it as an expensive LOOGY, but I doubt it

Odious' 2006 splits

vs LH: .365/.412/.587/.999
vs RH: .351/.383/.520/.903

5 Not having it front of me but I am sure that there are statistical probabilities about how many times a team scores with one out and a runner on first base.

I do know that all those years that Bonds was being walked, the probability of the Giants scoring was higher if you walked Bonds than if you let him bat. Perception probably makes you think differently but I think that was what the stats showed.

4 Sounds like you want something like:

(TB+BB+HBP)/PA

which is a little different than OPS, which would be:

(BB+H+HBP)/PA + (TB/AB)

10
I think I just want a modified SLG% that includes HBPs, BBs, and whatever other "legitimate" means of reaching base that I'm forgetting. I mean, why wouldn't one want to know that information? Seems kinda obvious to me...

Grady: Can I refill your maragrita for you? Get you something to eat? Drive you out to the middle of nowhere and leave you for dead?

Odalis: Naw, I'm doing just fine, Grady.

9 If you just walked Barry all the time, yes, but there was really no reason to pitch to him with two outs. A study in Baseball Between the Numbers showed that even if Miguel Tejada was hitting behind Barry, it still wouldn't be worth it to pitch to him.

8.

pick your poison.

2- Coming into this season, Ensberg has just over 3 years of service time (source:mlb4u.com).

10 - How about reaching on a strikeout?

14 - pick your poison

Hmm...ok, what about iocaine powder?

Now we just have to figure out how to slip into Odalis' drink.

2 - As far as I can tell, the Astros really like Everett. And if they were looking to upgrade, it wouldn't be with Everett-clone Izturis.

15
Reaching first on a strikeout is not counted as "reaching safely" in the OBP world. It's the same as reaching on an error.

Also, how often does a batter reach first on a dropped third strike? Once every 2-3 years?

OP will give the Dodgers nothing this year. That said, I hope they don't release him. OP has had two seasons of being an elite pitcher in the NL (2002 and 2004). I think if he trains and gets into good shape during the offseason, he'll be good in his contract's final year. So use him as a mop-up man now (he's still better than Kuo, Carter, etc.) and try to get something from him next year. I think a lot of hostility towards Perez is what he's getting paid. If he was had 2 years, 2 million left, would anybody be asking for his release?

More often than catcher's interference. How is that ruled?

How about Odalis Perez and $11 Million to the Pirates for Mike Gonzalez? We can cite how Jim Colburn is a genius and the success Perez had under him.

I always thought they should just score it as stealing first.

If you reach first on a dropped third strike, it is usually scored as either a K+WP or a K+PB or the rare K+E2 or the even rarer K+2-E3.

I've never seen the latter in person, but the other three I've seen at a game I've been to.

When Mickey Owen dropped the third strike in Game 3 of the 1941 World Series, under the scoring rules of the day, Owen was charged with an error.

One thing that was interesting last night was the mini-controversy about whether Perez threw a fastball, a change-up or a hanging slider. It led me to ask myself if there is any difference between his fastball and change.

The most famous K+E2 I can think of happened last year and the catcher was John Paul and the batter was AJ Pierzynski.

Jose Valentin is batting leadoff for the Mets today in Chicago.

And he got a double!

11 That is what was posted in 10. SLG is TB/AB. If you want to include BB and HBP, you would modify SLG to be (TB+BB+HBP)/PA.

I'm pretty sure that no player in history has had a "D4P" greater than 1.

As to why it's not used, it's because it combines two different skills in an odd way. SLG is useful because it correlates well with RBI, and OBP correlates well with Runs Scored. Combining them in the way you ask doesn't really make sense, because the TB part is much larger than the BB part, so the result is pretty much like SLG.

OPS, which adds SLG and OBP, is a better way to combine the two skills.

So, Prior goes back to the DL based on an injury suffered during batting practice.

The story's up at espn.com

19 - Well, you can change any of the variables and the equation would change. But the fact is, Perez does make millions more than that, and that affects things in non-emotional ways, such as his tradeability.

Perez also professed to have worked this past offseason with a trainer. I don't know that he can come back in better shape than he already was.

I don't have a problem with Perez staying around to mop up, all I'm saying is that I'll understand if the Dodgers would rather have someone else do it. I would say that there are $330,000 pitchers with as much chance of doing as well as Perez in 2007.

I still believe Perez may have a bounce in him, but the Dodgers don't have to feel obligated to wait for it.

27 The VABR stat that I use is a lot like what you want, and it better weighs the individual outcomes.

4 This might not be what you asked -- and I may be misunderstanding what you're saying -- but...

In the Babe Ruth article in Bill James's New Historical Baseball Abstract, he puts Babe Ruth 1921 in the middle of a lineup of all-time stiffs to see if it ever made sense to walk a batter every time he came up.

The answer was no -- under the simulation, letting the Babe bat scored fewer runs than walking him. The reason was because even the Babe got out half the time -- there was no way that giving up all those outs made up for the difference in SLG.

Apologies if this is off-point.

27 OPS is cool, but it double-counts hits since they're a compenent of both OBP and SLG. Not saying that's an awful thing; after all, team OPS correlates really well with runs scored which is why it's a useful metric, but if you're trying to break down an individual hitter's value (as part of some type of strategic expected-value calculation) the type of measurement D4P describes might be more mathematically useful.

To reiterate my feeling about last night, my instinct when Pujols came up was that Perez should pitch around him - basically, an unintentional intentional walk, but see how eager Pujols was to go fishing outside the strike zone to try to end the game. If Perez got beaten with a pitch outside the zone, I was prepared to accept that.

From what I've read, that was Perez's plan too, except that he didn't have the command on the last pitch. Like an NBA player trying to intenionally miss a free throw, Perez couldn't intentionally throw a ball.

Every time a left-hander purports to want to throw ball four to Albert Pujols in an "intentional" effort to walk him, and the ball ends up parked in the bleachers anyway, an angel gets its wings.

Now I picture Odalis Perez as Nick Martini, the bartender:

"Dig me! I'm givin' out wings!"

19 Isn't the problem at this point less the Dodgers (or our) attitude about Perez and his money, and more his attitude about the Dodgers? I mean, he may still be able to pitch, out of the bullpen or as a starter, but since he A) hasn't shown us that he can, B) has a terrible attitude about his mistreatment and doesn't show any inkling that he's motivated to earn back any respect or playing time by pitching decently or getting himself back into shape... isn't the problem more (or at least equal to) his own psychology at this point?

21 I'm all for that. Would the Pirates take on yet another erratic O. Perez and give up a good reliever for him, though? Maybe. It... just... might... work.

34 I was clapping my hands real fast and chanting "I believe in fairies!" when Odalis took the mound. I was wondering why that didn't work.

On a related note, did I mention that I was taking four kids to Disneyland? Today? For an all day visit in this heat?

Clap your hands for me, folks. "I believe in fairies... I believe in fairies..."

37
I don't often use the word "hero", but sir, you truly are one today.

A former girlfriend of mine, who liked "It's a Wonderful Life" once mused what my life would have been like without her. Since I'm a librarian, she figured I would have ended up with a much nicer job and I would have dressed better.

I'm not saying the Dodgers are a lovable organization. As employers go, they are far from perfect. But for quite some time now, Perez has sniped at them. Does the man recall that Los Angeles guaranteed him $24 million? Not saying it's hush money or cause to waive his First Amendment rights, but this persecution complex of his suggests mental illness. I'm not being sarcastic.

-5-

Agreed.

I've updated up top with an excerpt from Joe Sheehan's latest at BP.

has anyone else heard this rumor that is something like Drew, D. Young, Odalis, and Hall for Brett Myers and Abreu? Is that ludicrous or is it a legit rumor?

34 Hahaha

Morgan Ensberg looks like fool's gold to me. One of the Houston scribes, Justice, writes that Ensberg has a shoulder injury that's worse than he's letting on. He also suffered a hand injury that robbed him of some power, causing Garner to demote him in the lineup.
He's also advanced aribitration eligible, meaning he could really sock it to you if he wishes to leverage the 36 HRs he hit last year.
Were the Dodgers to acquire him, he would be leaving behind a friendly park to RH power hitters, plus a friendly division, in general, to hitters.
Defensively, he's no Brooks Robinson, to put it kindly.
LaRoche obviously has some proving to do, but if you're going to block him, Ensberg isn't the most compelling choice to do it. Three years from now, when Ensberg will be 33, you can pay LaRoch some $5 million less and perhaps have the better overall player.

41 - I thought one of the commenters made that up for sport.

Hey, here's a crazy idea. SUPPOSING the club kept the same payroll, they decide that they really really trust the rookies (again, ignore reality and play with this one). Enough, even, to give them the middle of the lineup.

Trade JD Drew for Mark Prior (same injury risk even!). Trade Jeff Kent for a Mets prospect (Izzy plays 2nd). Get a first round draft pick for Nomar.

The money goes into pitching. Three big free agent signings:
1) Barry Zito: 6 years, 92 million
2) Greg Maddux: 2 years, 23 million
3) Eric Gagne: Nomar deal (1 year, $6 million, worth up to $10 million if he pitches 70 innings).

ROTATION
Penny
Zito
Lowe
Maddux
Prior

LINEUP
1) Furcal - SS
2) Izturis - 2B
3) ________
4) ________
5) ________
6) ________
7) ________
8) ________

Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Joel Guzman, Russell Martin, Andy Laroche, James Loney, Jason Repko.

Here's the question:
Who goes 3-8, and who's the fourth outfielder?

41 Wow. Well, the Phillies do, in fact, need a catcher, and they probably want to save a few $M by swapping Drew for Abreu.

I'd trade Delwyn Young and Toby Hall for Brett Myers, straight up. Myers would seem to be under club control through 2008.

Also, it reunites Drew with Philadelphia. Awesome.

I thought this rumor was ludicrous at first glance, but after a closer look there is at least a shred of logic behind it.

History tells us big-ticket FA pitchers, as a rule, aren't good investments and probably are the group of investments most likely to blow up on you. Not saying you should fail to explore it, but it's very much a buyer-beware market.

41 That would involve the Phillies taking JD Drew. Metaphors are not sufficient to explain how unlikely that would be. Let's put it this way, the Phillies would have to leave Philadelphia first.

45 - I also included the Odalis for Gonzalez trade from 21.

That means a bullpen of Gagne, Saito (he gets re-signed too), Brazoban, Broxton, Gonzalez, and Beimel or Kuo.

41

The Kansas City Royal and Pittsburgh Pirates will meet in the World Series long before Gillick makes that trade.

46 - Throw in a Ryan Howard autographed baseball or two and it's just about even.

No wait, do they take Odalis? We might have to give them a pair of Nomar Garciaparra autographed batting gloves.

Myers could be on the move because of recent legal problems but I don't know how much that has to do with it. Anyways, it's a made up rumor.

Dear dsfan,

You're telling me?

Sincerely,

George Steinbrenner

*

I really just want to know where the rest of the youngsters fit in the lineup. Assume also that we don't get Milledge for Kent.

Fantasyland.

At this point, you would be lucky to get a mid low A prospect for Odalis because he has not put together anything for the last two months and he has about 12-14 M left on his deal through next year.

I agree with the comment that someone made yesterday, the Dodgers have both a strong and a weak position in making deals. Their strength is that they have both the farm system and the financial ability to make just about any deal. The weak is that because they have such a strong farm system that already is producing this year in majors, teams are not going to be satisfied with mid-level prospects that might take from other teams.

I think that one reason, you don't hear the D-Backs in any trade talks, everyone is going to ask for all their players in AAA, not the Shawn Greens or Craig Counsells, the D-Backs won't make a deal so then they will move on.

In some ways, its easier when you have one or two premier guys that you know you can't trade when you have 8-10, its somewhat hard to say that you can't move someone when reality tells you that you probably can't keep them all anyway.

my instinct when Pujols came up was that Perez should pitch around him - basically, an unintentional intentional walk...
Don't you mean and intentional unintentional walk? The UI I W seems as if the pitcher had such terrible control, he threw four straight pitches very high and far away.
And does the word "intentional" EVER get used today in a context not associated with four wide ones?

Like an NBA player trying to intenionally miss a free throw...
When the Magic got off to that awful 1-19 start in 2003-04, in the middle of the slide Hedo Turkoglu sank a free throw he was trying to miss. To quote the TNT crew: "Gone fishin'!" And in November, no less.

I like Xavier Nady, but he should definitely have gotten the boot for that take out slide. It wasnt' even Jose Valentine semi-dirty. He wasn't even close to the bag.

Valentin, I mean.

Milledge for Kent?

That's one I advocated in the winter -- no better time than last winter to trade Jeff Kent.

Were the Giants able to remove the heroin needle and realize that they're old and unable to win it all for Barry, they would leverage Jason Schmidt into Milledge and a young arm.
Then they would sell gamblin' Kenny Williams on the idea of taking Bonds for, say, Brian Anderson and a young arm. Trading Schmidt/Bonds also gets saves $10 million or so.

Somehting funny from Bill Simmons:

Q: Which is better, the Dodger Dog or the Fenway Frank? Do you prefer boiled and split top? Or do you like foot-long and steamed? I feel like Drama and Turtle at Sundance, but you get the idea. Please help us resolve this issue.
--Andrew C., Boston

SG: God bless the comedic power of the Fenway Frank, but has anyone ever walked into Fenway and said, "Man, I can't wait to tear into a Fenway Frank. They're delicious!" You can't find a more mediocre hot dog. But the Dodger Dog lived up the hype -- it's long and juicy, even a little salty, and you can definitely get a whole meal out of it. No contest.

(P.S.: I know the previous paragraph is going to lead to about 700 "Who wrote the Dodger Dog review, Bill Simmons or Richard Simmons?" e-mails. But there's really no way to write positively about a hot dog without sounding like you're reviewing a porn movie or writing a trashy novel. You have to admit.)

55 My son intentionally bit his sister on the arm yesterday. It was definitely not an accident.

45 - Fine, I'll go first.

3) Ethier
4) Laroche
5) Guzman
6) Kemp
7) Loney
8) Martin

4th OF - Repko

60 - You know, as soon as I posted that I realized I was overreaching.

But, in another observation of baseball-meets-lingusitics, only two things are ever uncorked: bottles, and wild pitches

My theory on why the Diamondbacks executive Kendrick tarnished franchise icon Luis Gonzalez with the public suggestion that "Gonzo" might have used HGH.

He wants to get "Gonzo" to waive his no-trade powers and accept a money-saving deal to, say, St. Louis. It'll be interesting to see if the Diamondbacks can free up some money and playing time by shipping out Gonzalez or Green. They have some interesting OFs in Triple-A -- Quentin, Young and Hairston.

When did JD Drew's injury troubles begin for him, and is that a trait that Stephen would have?

Oh, yes, now I remember why I mistook Alvarez for Perez:

2.1 3 2 2 5 0

okay, I read it on the board last night...I knew I had read it somewhere, just wasn't sure where.

I really wouldn't mind going after Myers...I completely forgot about him. He could be an awesome "buy low" candidate.

67 - Wasn't Julio Lugo an (accused) wife-beater cut loose, then picked up on the cheap?

Stephen Drew played for three professional clubs last year and missed at least 3-5 days with all of them because of injuries. However, he's shown impressive durability so far this year.

Playing shortstop and batting in the top third of Tucson's lineup, he's started something like 90-95 percent of the team's games.

He's not a finished product, but if he can avoid a collapse in July and August, it should be regarded as a very strong season, as much so mentally as physically for a 23-year-old who is in his second professional season and playing many of his games in brutal heat.

63

Sosa's bats?

68-

Yep, and the Rays seemingly have some trade leverage there to get something for Lugo.

Never thought I'd say this about the Rays, but they're doing a pretty good job. Specifically, they're holding out for young pitching in productive ways. Obviously Kazmir was an incredible trade. I'm not bullish EJ and am less than sold on Tiffany, but the pitcher Tampa got from Houston was a pretty good get for Huff.

I'm just now able to get on the internet since yesterday. I'm in Chicago where it's 85 degrees and 1000% humidity. How do people live here.

Last night's game was not on any tv here. I guess I didn't miss much.

45 - Can't play along ... I'd be keeping Nomar since he's leading the league in batting, drawing the loudest home fan response and Camille Johnston, my PR guru, has him all over the off-season communications plan.

I'm in Chicago where it's 85 degrees and 1000% humidity. How do people live here.

1. I'm in North Carolina, where it's 90 degrees and 1000% humidity.
2. I don't know.

Great, now it's raining.

I would like to add a line to the old Jim Croce song, "Don't mess around with Jim", you know "Don't tug on Superman's cape, Don't spit into the wind....."we should add something about "Don't pitch to Albert when game is on the line" as a rule for our pitchers to live by. I knew he was going to homer last night as he was stepping to the plate, I thought if he don't give him 4 wide ones, he's going deep! I mean Albert owns OP 10 Hits in 15 AB with 4 walks, 5 HR, 12 RBI, That is ownership!!
I hope we can find a way to win a game or two in St. Louis, they had their chances last night in innings 10-13 to go ahead and win this game themselves but couldn't get the key hit or in case of the 10th inning, even a fly ball out as a sac fly.

Great, now it's raining

That's actually a good thing. The rain usually helps cool things down a little bit.

32 - Unfortunately, D4P's new stat doesn't actually make that much of a difference, as even by including BB and HBP it's impossible for a sub-1.000 SLG to reach 1 by adding them in. Though it does help give a better indication of players who can hit for power and still reach base well, it's probably not more valuable than OPS because OPS double-counts hits, which are more valuable than walks in terms of runs. Reasoning:

Take a hitter who slugs .444 (400 total bases earned from hits in 900 ABs). Say he walks a lot or has a Garciaparra-like ability to get HBP, so he has 100 BB+HBP. His new D4P would be 500/1000, or .500. However, as I noted above, players who slug but don't walk usually have lower OPS than players who slug and walk, so OPS takes care of this problem.

As to the HBP+BB moving a stat greater than 1, let's use a real-world example with Barry Bond's absurd 2001 season (SLG of .863). He had 177 BB, and 9 HBP, so 186 BB+HBP, a very statistically-significant difference (he had 411 TB in 476 AB, so over 25% of his PA ended in a BB or HBP). So now his D4P is (411+186)/(476+186) = .902, still sub-1.000 (and not that much different than .863).

The reason the stat can't push any sub-1 SLG to a plus-1 D4P, is that you're simply adding 1 to both the top and bottom halfs of the equation for every BB or HBP. Though it's an interesting concept, it's not overmuch different from OPS, but without the additional weight given to hitting, which has a statistical advantage in runs generated.

78 - Hmm, actually 100 walks in 1000 PA isn't really walking all -that- much... Still, the example suffices and it uses nice round numbers. =P

So, then, are the odds ever in the pitcher's favor if he walks a hitter? If no hitter ever makes it to first on average, doesn't it seem like a pitcher is always better off not intentionally walking?

80
Not considering setting up double plays, etc. Assume the bases are empty, and we're just talking about the pitcher and the hitter.

The only trade possibility that makes some sort of sense that comes to mind is sending Perez to Milwaukee for Corey Koskie. They both have contracts with a year left at some pretty good money, although the Dodgers would have to send some money to balance it all out.

It's contingent on J.J. Hardy coming back, but dealing Koskie would give Bill Hall a place to play everyday. Perez would give them someone to roll out there instead of Ben Hendrickson, Zack Jackson or the not yet ready Dana Eveland.

Or Milwaukee can hang back and try and get him for nothing once he clears waivers, but that's no guarantee.

80 - Maybe if you're in extra innings, there's two outs, and the last remaining pitcher is on deck ... ? There are real-world scenarios where the most likely outcome outweights the statistical one. As long as the pitcher can throw strikes.

The "most likely outcome" was probably also in Tom Niedenfuer's favor had he walked Jack Clark, but I digress ...

83
Why would the Brewers or anyone offer anything of value for Odalis Perez? If you want him, you ask the Dodgers to give you a LaRoche or somebody to sweeten the poison.

45, 61 - guess nobody cares about the 3-8

84-

I would have no problem tossing in a couple of B prospects just so someone would take half his salary.

84- The incentive to get rid of Koskie's contract (even though they're only paying 4.25 mil of it over these next two seasons, though there's a 6 mil vesting option for '08 if he reaches 600 PAs) and having inexpensive options (Hall, Corey Hart) to put at 3B who would do just as well, if not better, than Koskie. They would pick up a pitcher with a pretty good track record who would be all but paid for (a necessity in probably any deal for OP) who allows them a better chance every fifth day than the guys they're currently rolling out there in the 4 and 5 spots (Helling and the others I mentioned).

Koskie serves as the stopgap Mueller was supposed to and Laroche takes over in '07.

Maybe you have to include an Aybar in the deal to sweeten the deal and give them a left-handed hitting IF to take Koskie's spot.

77. Even after the rain, it is still absurdly hot, and somehow my daughter's softball wasn't canceled even though it was pouring. I don't think I'll be bringing the boys to the conclusion of her tournament tomorrow when it is supposed to be 98 degrees with 2000% humidity.

So, then, are the odds ever in the pitcher's favor if he walks a hitter? If no hitter ever makes it to first on average, doesn't it seem like a pitcher is always better off not intentionally walking?

You've just committed an ecological fallacy. Just because it doesn't pay on average to walk a hitter doesn't mean that it's not a good idea in a particular circumstance. We make fun of managers who obsess about matchups, usually because they must rely on small samples, but OP vs. AP is different than the average pitcher vs. AP, or OP vs. the average hitter. It's not the average situation, or so thought most of those who called that HR "predictable." So the average efficacy of walking the batter is not actually all that instructive in trying to game a specific circumstance.

Now, it may have been a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situtation, given who was coming up after AP. Those run probabilities are also averages. To know the actual run probabilities had they walked AP, you'd also have to account for Rolen and Edmonds, et al, as well as the "quality" of OP or whatever starter was next to come in. And even then, they're just probabilities, not certainties.

So what was Grady to do? Had he walked AP, and then seen him score after an out and a single, he'd look just as guilty. At the time, I was yelling for 4 wide ones too, but I can't say Grady went off the reservation in letting OP pitch to him.

85 That is a pretty weak lineup for 2007. You've taken away the Top 3 Offensive players from this year's team. I would predict that lineup would be below average in getting on base, below average in power, and below average in speed. And why spend $23M on Greg Maddux, whose ERA has been over 4 for three straight years, and is almost at 5.00 this year?

When is the last time the Dodgers had the same batting order 1 through 8, two days in a row? It's on tap tonight.

I can't believe he is not DFAed. There must be something in the water in the Dodger Stadium GM's office that addicts them to hanging on to absurdly useless pitchers.

4

I made up that stat at the beginning of the season. Its called "expected value of a PA"

You've just committed an ecological fallacy. Just because it doesn't pay on average to walk a hitter doesn't mean that it's not a good idea in a particular circumstance.

By "particular circumstance" do you mean a case in which a hitter's "true" D4P against the pitcher is greater than 1.0?

94
Thanks, Nate. I would have been very surprised if no one had thought of it before. It seems like a pretty obvious stat to generate.

Pujol's EPA is .873 this year so far.

An ecological fallacy? Are there endangered tree frogs involved in the Odalis Perez situation?

[72]

you missed being very very upset (wich is a good thing)

59 Reminds me of a fake commercial I saw on MadTV yesterday for the "homophobic hot dog". Instead of biting into a phallic object, they had the hot dogs in the shapes of a breast, pliers, a Goodfellas DVD, etc.

It's good to see that Simmons has great things to say about the Dodgers. Not too long ago he wrote an article claiming that Dodger Stadium is one of the best places to see a game along with Fenway and Wrigley I believe.

Same lineup as yesterday, so apparently Kent thinks he's healthy. Rawitch didn't mention anything about roster moves however.

2) Greg Maddux: 2 years, 23 million

Why would you spend that much money on Maddux?

I cant believe they've given up on Kemp this quickly, in order to play Lofton everyday.
What is gained from that?

103
Maybe with all the emphasis this administration ostensibly places on positive clubhouse atmosphere, they don't want to risk causing a problem by upsetting K-Lo.

I don't see them as giving up on Kemp. It's just that right now, Lofton gives them more solid at bats. He's more likely to get on base. Kemp will get his ABs too, and it doesn't sound like they plan on sending him back to the minors soon (although he might when Repko comes back), but even that won't be giving up on him.

OP needs a change of scenery, so I hope there is some taker out there. However, would the Brewers be a team that takes him considering they are in the same division as Prince Albert and faces him many more times than we do. We need to send him to a team that would need him and Toby Hall (another malcontent) as well and has a backup that is content in that role. Maybe since the Reds are in a generous mood (See trade with Nats), we can send OP to the Reds(I know, also same division as Albert)and Hall to the Reds and we get Javier Valentin or David Ross (You're kidding, him again)and the RP they got from the Nats or a B level prospect. Work out something so the malcontents and whiners are gone and we get some "gamers" in return.

An aside: Did we psychologically screw up DJ Houlton? I thought he showed some guts and some promise when he pitched for the Blue last year. He was demoted to begin the year and he hasn't been heard from since.

They haven't given up on Kemp. He is 21. We are in a pennanat race. I love Matt Kemp and thing lofton is just so so but runner on 2nd 2 outs in the ninth, i'll take my chances withe Keeny Speed over Kemp.

104. Very true.

I'd hate to see how bad the team would be with Toby Hall, Kenny Lofton, and Odalis Perez complaining about playing time.

Where would the team be, without all that chemistry?

nice spelling..must be the beers at lunch. sorry about that. sad thing is, I did edit my spelling.

Michelle Wie update:

Double-bogey on the 9th hole to turn at +2 37. She made a birdie at 8 and bogey at 1.

+8 overall. She needs to shoot, like, 28 on the back to make the cut. So that's probably not gonna happen.

110
Wie withdrew with flu-like symptoms.

Gurnick mentioning a possible LaRoche call up is such a tease. Why doesn't Little want Kemp sent down. He is not getting enough at bats in my opinion and he has been struggling. I think he needs some more time in the minors.

Houlton's been faring pretty poorly in Las Vegas, too. It's too bad. Obviously if he'd progressed instead of regressed that would have given us another starter option. Of course, the main reason he was on the roster all of last year was the Rule 5 thing, otherwise he would have been in the minors much of last year. Still, he did seem to have some promise, although I personally was never that expectant with him.

98. underdog
An ecological fallacy? Are there endangered tree frogs involved in the Odalis Perez situation?

That's what it's called. It's the fallacy of applying a result from one level of analysis to an event at a different level of analysis.

It's very common in discussions of voting. I just saw an instance of it today in an article on the Mexican presidential election. The vote was pretty evenly split, but the article (in The Economist) summarized this incorrectly by saying: "the voters...found it desperately hard to choose between [the two main candidates]." Actually, it might be the case that every single voter had a clear preference (think Bush vs. Kerry), with half on each side. The country was evenly divided, but that doesn't mean that even a single voter was ambivalent.

Same mistake here. Just because an IBB is on average a bad idea if you're trying to prevent one run from scoring, even to Pujols, doesn't mean that it's not smart for the 2006 version of OP to choose discretion over valor when facing Pujols.

Sorry - lecture over. Occupational hazard. I'm supposed to be writing a textbook chapter right now...

111 Well, that would explain why she hasn't started the back nine on my little javascript window at work.

I'm more sick of Hall than Perez. Perez might stink now but at least he's had a few good years in his career. I don't think Perez is done. I think he's given up, because the team has given up. It would be best for both the Dodgers and Perez that they part ways. Toby Hall on the other hand, thinks he's a starting caliber catcher at 30, despite being an average defensive catcher (with a great arm) and a mediocre offensive player whose best asset is making contact. Toby has hit into almost as many double plays as he has walked. After the little Sheffield act that he's put on for the past few, I'd be shocked if he was still with the Dodgers after the deadline.

Beating your wife is one of the worst things a person can do. The Dodgers have demonstrated that they have a double standard for character players. If they are productive and can stay healthy, then they have no problem acquiring them. I'd definitely look into acquiring Brett Myers. From everything I've read, it sounds like both parties were at fault for the little violent episode. Myers is a very good pitcher, but he's one of those "million dollar arm, cent head" guys. He may never be the true ace that everybody expected him to be, but he can still be a solid #2-3. The one problem with Myers is that I think he's entering his last year of arbitration after this season. Would it really be worth it to give up Guzman for 1 ½ years of Myers? There's no guarantee that he'd want to sign an extension here.

Zito is one pitcher I'd be willing to give big money to. He's never had a history of arm problems and has never been on the DL which is pretty amazing for a guy who throws 200+ innings every year. Because he doesn't throw hard, I can see him pitching for another 10+ with good success. Scott Boras compared him to Greg Maddux, which is ludicrous because Maddux has much better control. Still Zito is a good pitcher who is extremely durable.

116 - Would it really be worth it to give up Guzman for 1 ½ years of Myers?

IMO, yes.

BREAKING NEWS: BONDS *ABOUT TO BE* INDICTED FOR TAX EVASION AND PERJURY.

Would it really be worth it to give up Guzman for 1 ½ years of Myers?

No.

118 I stopped believing "about to be indicted" rumors with Karl Rove.

It's like being here at work: there are constantly rumors that someone or other is gonna be fired. Ya know what? Maybe he is, but I'll believe the rumor when the office is empty.

Call me when Bonds is indicted.

102 - Don't think of Maddux as a finesse pitcher that has movement on everything. Think of him as the hardest-throwing knuckleballer in the history of the game. Makes the Bull look even faster out of the pen anyway. And who else is there anyway?

103 - You got me. If they're not leaning toward sending Kemp back down with the return of Ledee (or even Cruz), there's no reason to keep him on the roster. He really needs to play everyday, and while his defense is a bit suspect, it's not much worse than Lofton's (in fact better since Lofton has an arm that makes Johnny Damon's arm look like a cannon).

114 Hmm, no that's interesting, thanks. Had really never heard that term in that way before.
--
The good thing about Maddux (if the Dodgers are still interested in acquiring him) is that he is a very good second half pitcher, I believe.

120 - I don't have your phone number. Can I just post it instead?

[112[ It's not about Kemp, they just need outfield bodies. Drew and Lofton are frequently hurt or resting, The only healthy outfielders are Cruz and Ethier. And Cruz can't hit and Ethier can't play centerfield. As soon as Repko is back, Kemp will be sent down. I think we all, including Dodger management, agree that this isn't helping him, being used as he is, but the club's needs come first.

Plus we're going to need Guzman to get Shawn Camp.

Would the Phillies be willing to take OP and Toby Hall along with Guzman for Myers, and bring Lieberthal back home as a backup to Martin? (Okay, I'm awake now) I'm sure I was dreaming a moment ago.

Enough of this pretend dreaming scenario, I am going to the GoGo's at the Greek tonight. Remember my courtship days with my future wife in the 80's. See Belinda, Jane, Gina, Kathy & Charlotte! See if they still "Got the Beat". Maybe not watching the game tonight will help the Dodgers to victory. Look for any ray of sunshine or superstition to help the boys in blue.

If we are talking about a trade with Philly, an inclusion of Smooth Sal Fasano has to be in the discussion.

126 Headline for August 14:

The Dodgers' 28-game, month-long winning streak came to an end tonight. According to sources high in the Dodgers, the loss can be attributed to gibsonhobbs88, who had not watched the team for a month, but tuned in to see this game.

"I knew it was because of me," says gibsonhobbs88. "I was the charm. But they were winning! They're my team, and I haven't watched them win as they went on this incredible tear. I couldn't take it any longer. I had to watch. I take the blame for this loss."

"Great, just great," said Kenny Lofton, who ended his 28-game, 100-for-100 hit streak by going 0-for-4 with four strikeouts. "Now we need another superstition."

125 For whatever reason, that really made me laugh.

I'm going to see Bonds here on the 25th.

Or not I guess.

Will SF manage to keep him out of the lineup if he's indicted?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2519843

125 - I needed to look that guy up. I should've known to make the TB bullpen my first stop.

I think Myers would be a terrific pull for Guzman. As the above poster mentioned, he'd make a nice 2 or 3 in a rotation, and I just don't see that many out there available for trade, nor on their way up in the minors.

Plus I think we could come up with a good nickname for him. His initials are "BM" for chrissakes. Think of the possibilities.

Myers is to big of a wife beater for me. Other then that, I would trade Guzman for him.

Would it really be worth it to give up Guzman for 1 ½ years of Myers?

Since JtD isnt a SS anymore, then yes.
I think acquiring Brett Myers, and resigning him would be a better option.

133-

have to agree...although barely. Beating down on your wife is disgusting...as far as I'm concerned Myers isn't even a man, he's a loser.

But strictly baseball, I'd take him for Guzman. Just not sure if I want to root for such a deplorable person.

133

I like that trade posibility, I say do it.

128 - Speaking of superstitions, In 1988, My wife dropped nachos prior to the game after the National Anthem was played and that game, Gibby scored from 2nd on a wild pitch, then we went to game 1 of the World Series, after the anthem was played, my wife forgot she placed the nachos in her seat and sat in them, Gibby hits the memorable Home Run! "Nacho Magic" Unfortunately, that was only a 1988 confined superstition.

Flanders likes high-character Devil Ray middle relievers, so I'm not sure what the relevance of any of this is. Not to mention that anyone who comes from the Phillies has Bellenthal disease.

Hall and Guzman for Myers and Lieberthal. Get it done!

Navarro would look a heck of a lot more appealing in that trade proposal though. d'oh.

Mattingly, playing SS today went 2-3 with a bb and a stolen base.

His BA is at .369 after 65 ABs and he is 6-6 in stolen bases.

Acquiring Lieberthal would require me to make an offer to the Effigy Man he cannot refuse.

At least Lieberthal would want to be here. I'm not sure if I can handle Toby's daily trade demands.

Maybe he should pull a Klinger and start dressing up as a woman.

07.11.06 - How about Tom Gordon in the Dodgers' bullpen? We'd take him and his 2.17 ERA. He's signed for two more years after this one and could be a serviceable setup man, if not a downright closer for the Blue. Ship a mid-level prospect to Philadelphia, pay his remaing salary (2006: $4.5M, 2007: $7M, 2008: $5.5M, 2009: $4.5M club option) and bring him over. With Baez and most likely Gagne gone next year, Gordon makes decent sense.

any truth to this rumor up top?? makes sense to me.

Elbert pitches for Jax today.

7 mils for a reliever.
No.

Gordon has over a 4:1 K:bb ratio and an ERA around 2. He is straiht up filthy. If paying 7 million in 2007 means we dont have to trade top prospects or spend money on a crappy middle reliever this offseason, then I am all for it.

144

as bad as our pen's been, you'd think about it no?

145

that's why I like that trade posibility.

How can you be sure that Gordon will be that good next year?

I'd rather spend 7mils towards a starter.

But since we would have to trade top prospects the answer is no.

There's nothing wrong with our bullpen that not trading for relief pitchers won't fix:

I'm with nate. I think grabbing a veteran proven reliver that throws gas for the bully is fine and needed for this year and next.

You realize Tom Gordon is 38yrs old right now? You'd really want to committ 7mils bucks to a 39yr old middle reliever?

148-

agreed. put the money towards and starter and just keep Saito.

Thats true, I forget Ned would have to trade for him and god only knows what prospects he would include.

Game thread is open.

Mid-level prospect is the key for me, not a Kemp,Ethier,Bills type. I wouldn't have a problem with trading Guzman for a starter or reliever.

154

it's about time :o)

Or put another way, the solution is not to repeat the mistake that broke it. The solution is more beimels and saitos. The cubs did a wonderful job upgrading their bullpen in the offseason. And Gordon has sure saved the phillies.

Is there any reason not to keep shuttling $400,000 relievers out there until they prove they can't do it?

Is there a demonstrable difference between the Carraras and Beimels and Saitos and everyone below the top-five MLB relievers?

Frankly, stumbling upon the practice of discarding Carrara every so often and waiting for him to recharge might be the best bullpen idea around.

Steve and I are as one on this.

You need middle relief, but you can't plan for it.

I don't know if the toaster is having problems or if it's my computer cause I just refreshed DT's & the gamday thread didn't pop up??

I guess I am thinking the Saito trap door will open soon. I should think more half full.

161 - It will. There are lots of Saitos out there though.

148

gordons era the last 4 years:
K:bb ratio
2003 3.16 2.93
2004 2.21 4.17
2005 2.57 2.37
2006 2.16 4.18

No signs of aging or collapse, If anything, seems like a developing pattern for his K:bb ratio.

How can you be sure that Gordon will be that good next year?

No one can be sure, but as my post above has stated, he hasn't shown any serious signs of collapse. Its not like he is danys baez who has terrible peripherals but a golden era. Gordons a pretty darn good pitcher.

Acquiring high priced middle relief should be like a finishing touch on a new house.

If everything on the house is perfect, then you can splurge and try to fine tune the lesser details.

The Dodgers house has a very shaky foundation. Putting in new windows isnt going to help.

159 I agree with that but you need SOME stability in the bullpen. Gordon provides that. The rest can be min wage finds.

165

Its going to help, but is not going to be the difference unless you improve the foundation I agree. I don't think the foundation is that far away anyways.

nate,

Tom Gordon passes every one of "Steve's Rules of Acquiring Relief Pitchers" (former starter, long record of quality pitching, dominant peripherals, short-term contract, etc.) He is one of the few that would at least keep me from opening the window, much less jumping out. Nevertheless, you know what he commands on the market, which is six years of one high-level prospect (if not twelve years of two high-level prospects). While a relief pitcher like Gordon goes in that rarified air of providing some value, the equities do not balance.

Gordon & Lieberthal for O.Perez & Hall straight up no cash would be good.

O. Perez is due $17+ million over the next 2 years.

Meyers for Guzman + Orenduff would be nice.

Meyers & Lowe can pal around together.

Gordon is always a high injury risk pitcher no matter what his age.

Kemp needs some AAA time to hone his skills.