Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Since May 1, Rafael Furcal's on-base percentage has been .365, 17 points higher than his career OBP entering the season. His 2006 OBP of .349 is on par with his career average.
Furcal's slugging percentage since May 1 of .404 meets his career standard but trails his production of the past three seasons. His overall 2006 slugging percentage is .355, thanks to that lousy April he had (.219).
Furcal had four hits Thursday and was robbed of a potential game-winning fifth when he lined out to second base.
If it were true that certain players heat up as the seasons go on - and I'm not convinced that's more than coincidence - is it because they need 30-60 games behind them to become effective? Or should they just head off to Maui for the first month or two and wait for the weather to get hot?
* * *
I'm on the edge of my seat with the deadline coming up....
Also, I'm not sure if Ned and Grady are on the same page as to use of Perez. Last night, Grady put Perez in a position to fail and as expected it happened. Is Grady trying to send a message to Ned that either Perez is going to be useful or get someone else.
it seems like medusa has something brewing for us fans (good trade?) Let's hope it's not at the expense of our farm.
if he starts hitting I'm willing to turn a blind eye on his D.
I keep OP in long relief until he's DFA'd, or there's an injury or replacement needed in the rotation.
Odalis has already been a disaster as a starter this year, and we have others who are more productive. Who would you take out of the starting 5 to let Odalis go in there again. He is a long reliever and the only reason he was used last night was because the bullpen had already gone 8 innings and we were running out of arms. I don't think we can waste 3 more starts on Odalis as we are in a pennant race. Lets face it, Sele took his place and that has saved the season.
How many starts have been wasted on Seo, Tomko, and Hendrickson? Giving 3 starts to a guy that at least has a good history shouldnt be a stumbling block.
Let Hendrickson be a long man. Its not like the rotation is missing something with taking him out of it. He's always been brutal.
L.A. Native makes a good point 9 check it out.
(almost)
I agree that if Hendrickson keeps throwing as bad as he has already then we could consider throwing Odalis back there as a last resort, but we also have Tomko vying for that spot, not that he himself hasn't been bad since his hot start. Also, I'm no fan of Hendrickson, but we haven't even given him three starts yet (he has started only twice for the Dodgers I believe). I used to be a big believer in Odalis and was for giving him a bunch of chances, but I think he just doesn't have it anymore and he has worn out even my patience.
it's not like Hendrickson is a rookie...we already know he's not a good pitcher. I don't really need to see any more.
YES!
too bad. We need a bat pretty badly.
Keeping him in the mop-up role only hurts the team and OP.
You want to see more of Odalis. The guy's ERA is almost 7 and the league is hitting 356 against him!!! I said he has been a disaster as a starter, but he has been just as bad as a reliever as well. At least Hendrickson and Tomko have had some success this year. I think there is more hope of one of them being at least serviceable as a 5th starter for the rest of the year.
I do agree our poor starting pitching is a real problem and why several weeks ago, I picked the Angels as having a better chance of winning their division than the Dodgers do despite all of their negative press.
Could Billingsley be sent back down? It's not as if he was setting the PCL on fire when he was called up.
We need pitching pretty badly
If I was OP, I'd be upset too.
I think Billingsley could be sent back, but if he can settle down and pitch more like last night where he wasn't sharp, but at least didn't give anything up he can stay. I don't think Ned or Griddles wants to have both Tomko and Hendrickson/Perez in the starting 5. At least I am not excited about that. Overall, I think Billingsley should really still be in the minors for his development, but we are pretty desperate at this point like it or not.
OP isnt treated with the Veteran respect that other Dodger veterans are, and I think thats why he's upset.
If people want to also make the point that he's not a very good pitcher right now, I see that also. Billingley hasnt pitched that well in any of his games yet.
Not because I want him out of here, I'm just wondering if there would be a little less pressure to work on his mechanics and control in AAA.
LA could do a lot worse than handing him the ball every fifth day. I just wonder if its the best thing for him.
I do not care in anyway what they wear (unless it was the opposing teams stuff)? We do not even look at them during a game.
Remember when everyone went crazy because Dan Evans heaven forbid wore a pink shirt?
We need pitching pretty badly
I know this. But there is no pitching out there. We also could use a bat since Grady loves having three slap hitters in the lineup at the same time.
I'd much rather Flanders give up a prospect for a hitter than another 5th starter.
humidity also no?
what's with the little star TW?
To LAD: Tom Gordon, Mike Lieberthal, Brett Myers
To PHI: Odalis Perez, Willy Aybar, Toby Hall
Abreu for JD Drew could quite possibly be the funniest trade since...Soriano for AROD!!
We have the best BA in the NL.
I still don't understand why Kemp is up here if he's our 5th outfielder. They are riding K Loft until he completely breaks down. When K Loft is not at Kenny speed, he's completely worthless. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends with a batting average in the .270 range by the time the year is over. About 3 weeks ago, he was hitting .320+
overstatement of the year.
he's the little shortstop that could.
and I don't see us putting up many runs on Carpenter with this lineup.
Actually, scratch the good part.
scratch the buddy part too.
He felt bad for the bad start from Lowe & did us a favor & struck out.
He's steanking it up is what's happening.
I have a huge problem with our offense. We're simply not going to win with both Lofton and Izturis out there. We have no legit HR threat, and I love Eithier as much as the next guy but I'll be shocked if he hits .350 in the second half.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5784328
The first part was jettisoning Kemp for Ledee.
When Tomko replaces Billingsley, there will at that point be no reason to watch 2006 Dodger baseball. It'll be 2005, just replace AAAA players with mediocre vets. Marginal improvement, but not enough to make a difference.
Tony LaRussa managed perhaps the first compliment given to Odalis Perez this year, after ripping Grady for not ordering the intentional walk.
"That's why people pay attention to numbers," Cardinals manager Tony La Russa said. "Odalis Perez gets a lot of hitters out, but there's a confidence factor with Albert."
Ned overdid it with the mediocre veterans, proof is ledee returns and kemp goes down, same thing when izturis returned aybar went down.
Izturis and lofton = stifling the offense (and that's bad considering our pitching staff).
Nothing more frustrating then a GM that overdoes it with mediocre veterans and trades young/prospects for more mediocre veterans.
Grounded out in the first after Soriano doubled to open the game.
Flied out in the third.
Struck out with the bases loaded in the fourth to end the inning.
Grounded out to first with two on in the sixth to end the inning.
And one fielding error.
The Nationals people have started calling him F-lop.
Still more productive than Clayton.
But I am amazed at the way the D's offense seems to collapse as one(or pile on as one earlier in the season).
That's it. I've given up hope here. The Dodgers could win 25 straight games and outscore the opposition by 200 runs in that stretch and we'd still be complaining that:
1) too many guys swing at the first pitch
2) there aren't enough rookies
3) that Mark Hendrickson exists
Sheesh. Good night.
Good point gen3blue NO-NO GOING FOLKS! THERE'S A NO-NO GOING!!
That might be it also.
Yeaaaah, that was it lol.
at www.minorleagueball.com
John Sickels did a write up on how our top 20 prospects are performing if anyone is interested.
I'd hope Drew is due to at least hit the ball out of the infield soon.
Exactly
Those two things should at least put a drag on the traffic flow to the complaint department.
I think its only constructive to complain about things that can be changed (examples being the starting lineup/roster). Complaining about things that are not controllable, are useless.
Once he learns to stop walking people he will be an elite player.
Bradley is 2-3 2 runs scored 2 rbi and also stole a home run from Manny. It would be nice to have him in center instead of Lofton. That said, I'd rather have Ethier since Bradley can't stay healthy.
BECAUSE HE HASN'T HIT A HOME RUN IN 104 AT BATS. He has been extremely sub par.
Bradley will be on the DL soon.
I'd rather have a cardboard cutout of Willy Mays in center than Lofton.
the stuff about Drew is getting pretty old. It's pretty ridiculous that you harrass Drew endlessly yet don't even mention the fact that we've got Lofton and Izturis in the lineup.
last 4 games, Izturis has been more productive. Will Drew get a hit again, let alone a home run?
Man, is this Furcal guy getting 12 million?
There are like 8 things wrong with this team (a team you predicted would run away with the NL West). Drew isnt one of them.
UGH.
"last 4 games"???? Is this a joke!? hey, the last half inning so and so was the most productive!
Your bias against Drew is just unbelievable, and ridiculous. I have no idea why you're under the impression that JD Drew is a HR hitter..he never has been, and never will be.
Yet somehow you don't talk about Kent's lack of power, the fact that Izturis can't hit, the fact that Lofton is in the lineup...Drew really is the LEAST of our worries offensively.
It's only a matter of time before I hear "Nats Win" from my TV.
Please go back on the ritalin.
Your ADD is acting up in a bad way.
With all the mediocre veterans ned has acquired and the trade deadline coming up, one name has popped up in my mind, a guy that has always been part of a trade deadline deal and that name is terry mulholland.
What are the chances ned acquires terry mulholland?
LOL!
I say 98% chance.
Lol did you bother to read Jon's post up top? The guy is turning it around, give him some time.
"Why is Izturis playing? Why is Lofton playing? Does Ledee really offer something that Kemp doesn't? Your team is retarded."
I was thinking about the same odds.
no I think he's killing us fans
The A's are basically trotting out an entire lineup of guys not producing, yet we are the dumb ones.
I wonder if instead of the untested, inexperienced Broxton, the Sox might go for a proven closer, a fierce competitor, Hollywood's most beloved Cuban-American since Desi Arnaz, and the secret to the Rays' success all those years, Dennys "Danny" Baez?
I like that thinking.
The A's are basically trotting out an entire lineup of guys not producing, yet we are the dumb ones.
W/L records:
LAD - 46-43
OAK - 46-43
Payrolls:
LAD - $98,447,187
OAK - $62,243,079
???
Has this guy pitched in every game since being called up?
The Dodgers have plenty of choices, but have just made dumb decisions.
Hall over Navarro
Lofton over Kemp
Izturis over Aybar
And so on...Thats what kills teams. When they have opportunity to make smart decisions, and instead do the exact opposite.
That was in reference to us playing Izturis, Lofton, and sending down Kemp. My point was we aren't the only team trotting out sub par players. I am also an A's fan, I know the A's are doing well.
that's really what blows my mind. Isn't it the job of management to put out the BEST possible lineup on a nightly basis?
It's almost like we're trying to lose. We all know that an Aybar/Saenz platoon at third helps this team out sooooooooooooooo much more than Izzy, yet Izzy stays in there and he gets a free pass. Lofton isn't as bad, but if Izzy is going to be in there then he shouldn't and vice versa.
Essentially we have three slap hitters plus a pitcher in our lineup every day. That's 4/9 of our lineup that isn't going to drive in any runs and who knows what Eithier is going to do in the second half. I like Furcal a lot, he's been on fire lately....but putting the other two in the lineup every night it's almost like we're trying not to score any runs.
And sending Kemp down is not a bad move!
As for Lofton, you basically expected him to be a .290-.300 leadoff type hitter, and has a much better SB% than Furcal (heck, he's a better leadoff man than Furcal). Sure Repko or Kemp could have held centerfield, but that's more Colletti's fault, really. Pay this year: $3,850,000
JD Drew is not doing what one would hope. His career 162 game avg is .287/.393/.514 in 531 AB with 28 HR. Drew isn't on pace for 20 HR and has a .835 OPS. Pay this year: $11,000,000.
Whats the story here.
I think 181 is really a good summation of my feelings on the 'sub-par' players of the A's and Dodgers... well, actually, 2 out of 3. I think Lofton's playing time is still defensible and Kemp could benefit from more time in AAA. The other two have been discussed ad nauseam (nauseum?), but I'm aligned mostly with Joey there.
Whats the story here.*
Gio "I pitch everyday" carrara
And someone who can't hit just singled to center.
Izturis/Lofton is just a joke. I dont know what else can be said about it. How many 3rd basemen can Izturis outproduce? Why on earth is playing Lofton now better than playing Kemp now?
The problem with Colletti is he's trying to milk this Dodger team for all its worth, but the team isnt good enough. So end the veteran nonsense and start developing these youngsters for the future. Its like the Pirates. The Pirates are going nowhere, and they still play Casey, Randa, and Burnitz. The Dodgers arent as bad as the Pirates, but they'll be in the same spot by the time the season is over. Both wont be in the playoffs, and the season will have been a waste bc some of the young guys that should have been developing, were instead stuck in AAA.
Cesar Izturis has improved offensively every year
Really? Because a quick look at his history suggests that his 2004 was a bit of an abberation (and even then his OBP was only .330, which is still sub-league average IIRC). He's still young, so it could be true that he's actually been improving and 2005 was momentary step back, and the rest of this season will be very telling, especially as it seems the Dodgers have committed to playing him full-time (barring a trade, which may happen regardless of LAD's belief of his value simply because of the amount of available 3B and SS talent in the minors).
However, he never has, and I doubt he ever will, be very good at getting on base, and he doesn't hit for much power. He fits the definition of a 'banjo-hitting' defensive specialist. There are places for players like that on a team. However, the team also needs players like Drew, who gives them a player that gets on base at an excellent clip and has shown the ability throughout his career to hit for power - even with this season's dip in power production he's still slugging .475+ and don't forget that there's still quite a few games to be played.
Look at the first half of the season last year - Drew was immensely productive (IIRC, he finished #2 in VORP for the year among the position players despite only playing in 72 games due to that freak injury). There's no reason to think that he can't get back to that level, and he's a solid outfielder.
What does the NL West have? A guy who's gonna be indicted next week for perjury and tax evasion.
I agree.
The only thing i differ with is that we might win the division, but so what, because once we get to the playoffs - its bye bye (knocked out in the first round).
Well at least I favor the complete game.
Kemp, on the other hand, not only struggled but had obvious flaws. Going to the minors will be good for him now and in the future. The Pirates, on the other hand, keep burying 25-year-olds who have nothing left to prove in the minors. Kemp hasn't even spent half a season above A-ball yet, we don't want to make this another Edwin Jackson situation do we?
The trick is finding the right balance, and also the right stopgaps. Though I don't agree with everything the current front office has done (much as the same can be said for pretty much every administrative group) they did a good job of picking up reasonably useful players with short-term deals.
Baez' career stats against the White Sox: Seven saves. But not a great ERA (4.70) or WHIP (1.52).
He's much worse in U.S. Cellular. All four of his losses against the Sox came there. He has an 8.07 ERA, 2.05 WHIP and his walks/K's is almost even.
Camille will have to spin it.
Baez should be a tempting target for the Yankees, Red Sox or Orioles, however. He pitched great against them, and great in their ballparks. He is an AL East-eating monster! Perfect set-up man for Papelbon. Successor-in-waiting to Mariano Rivera.
I hope we win atleast one
I dont think promoting young players is a problem to their development. I could care less about a guy's age. Either a guy is good enough or he isnt. The sooner you find that out, the better. Keeping guys in AAA where they can prove nothing, isnt helping the team whatsoever.
Kemp will improve faster facing MLB pitching, than he will facing AAA pitching. Its just a shame the Dodgers are so near sighted that they cant just stick with a youngster through his slump.
Maybe they'll have a different mindset after these 7 games with the Cards. I believe they'll be 5-7 games out after next weekends series with the Cards. Either that will set off a panic trade (bad), or set off some reality based thinking that says "this team isnt quite good enough this year, but some positive things can still be accomplished by playing the youngsters".
you guys here about this guy? what do you think bring him up?
Wouldn't it be right about now that some fool panics and trades away the future?
I agree, with you to a surden extent.
I saw him on saturday & his glove gave me goose bumps.
DePodesta did a lot of things I didn't like, but the day I officially decided I hated him was when Jose Valentin lost a ball in the chalk.
You don't think Kemp has anything to prove? He's played one half-season above Single A ball - as much as it pains me to say, his torrid start with the Dodgers could easily turn out to be a fluke. He looks like he'll end up having a real career, but so did Jackson. He had a brilliant, what, 3 or 4 weeks? Timing, as they say, is everything.
I'm not one to hold with too many 'old baseball' traditions, but one with which I do agree is that players can play themselves out of careers if brought up too early. Could Kemp improve more facing MLB pitching? Yes. All the same, could he believe there to be a problem with his swing (when in reality it looks mostly like he has strike-zone judgement issues) and change something that causes a disastrous dropoff from which he never recovers? I say yes.
Will that come to pass? Probably not. But I'm not so sure he won't improve plenty facing AAA pitching (seeing as he'd only had a couple months of anything like what you'll see at AA, there are probably still some things he can learn). He's, what, 21? Give him time. If the season's done anyway (as you seem to believe) then playing Lofton over him can't do damage to this year's chances. And I find it hard to believe that 3 months of AAA ball, instead of MLB-level, could inhibit his development so greatly.
By your reasoning, shouldn't Clayton Kershaw be in the majors now? If he comes up and does poorly, do you just leave him in the rotation all year and let him take his lumps?
There's a reason most players follow a standard growth curve before making it to the majors full-time. Guys like Pujols and Wright are exceptions to the rule because they are such immense talents. Every higher level presents new challenges that must be overcome to be a successful major leaguer. You think Kemp saw a lot of good curves in AA? Now being able to work out those kinks in an environment where he's not fighting to prove he belongs will allow him to relax and have a clearer head.
There's a difference between a player coming up, hitting a hard stretch, but still having good at-bats versus a guy like Kemp who had an obvious flaw (pitch selection) that not only showed up at-bat after at-bat, but was a knock on him coming into this year. He was doing better with it at AA, hopefully he can regain his batter's eye against better competition in AAA. Sending him down was the right thing to do, plain and simple.
Besides, I'm a masochist. =P
Oh, if your'e a masochist by all means have at it lol.
Ignore the merits of this deal. Let's suppose Izturis just stays at third for this year so he can win a gold glove there, and next year he starts working on his 2nd base gold glove. Then suppose that Nomar goes to the Yanks as a FA, and Drew and Kent are traded off. We're going to play Kemp, Loney, Laroche, Repko, Martin, Ethier, Guzman on the big club next year.
Here's the point.
Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to fill in the following lineup.
1) Furcal - SS
2) Izturis - 2B
3) ?????
4) ?????
5) ?????
6) ?????
7) ?????
8) ?????
4th OF - ??????
I missed this story. They had words? They went mano a mano? They yo' mama'd? When did this happen? What are the details?
One game when the Dodgers were getting crushed at the beginning of this year, McCourt was seen just yelling at Ned aka Flanders.
234 - Slight logical fallacy in the premise - if Drew and Kent are traded, one assumes some sort of return on the trades, no? Pick your favorite Devil Rays... :)
There is however, no argument in favor of Cesar Izturis at third base that makes any sense whatsoever. I don't care how good his defense is. I think I've already said this before, but a good defensive player is never as important as a good offensive player, ever. Aybar/Saenz would be a solid third base tandem for us this year.
I think Cantu would look good in Dodger blue + he's mexican.
Thats my point.
Will no one try to decide my lineup from #234?
Depends who Drew and Kent are traded for.
I choose the pass on the mission
pitching, pitching & more pitching.(the dodger way)
Kemp needs some time in AAA. He's had a few hundred at bats in AA and none in AAA. He needs to work on his pitch recognition. I'd much rather have him playing everyday in AAA, than sitting on the bench in the majors.
Milton Bradley's final line
4-5 3 R 3 RBI 1 BB and stole a home run from Manny
Antonio Perez's line:
0-6 3 Ks ouch! Though he did make a nice defensive play.
Thats the entire point.
The Dodgers need to play the youngsters everyday, regardless of the outcome. Make them feel like they belong, and are there to stay. Kemp should be relaxed knowing he's in the lineup no matter how many times he K's or makes outs. Its when you have a veteran like Lofton, that demands PT, that plans like these go awry.
People to point to Edwin Jackson failing, but the guy got hurt and lost his velocity. It had nothing to do with simply his age. It was a physical problem. He once threw 98, he got hurt and then threw 90, and the mistakes he'd make would get crushed.
Not much of a chance Kemp learning discipline at the minor league level. I've heard reports the Dodgers arent doing the Oakland thing anymore.
If you want to move Furcal and Izturis around in the lineup, fine.
As far as positions go it's an easy no brainer. Loney at 1st, LaRoche at 3rd, Martin at C, and the other 4 filling out the outfield. I'm going to figure that who ends up the 4th OF depends heavily on how Repko's rehabilitation goes. If he comes back mostly at full strength, I'd figure he'd be one of the top 3 at least at the start of the season. Kemp's the most likely candidate to be the other full-time players, with Ethier and Guzman the 4th-OF options (again, depending on how Ethier's 2nd-half goes... if he hits .350 for the rest of the season, he's obviously in).
As for lineup order, I'd stick Izzy in the 7th or 8th slot, but if he has to bat 2...
Furcal
Izzy
Loney (this based on his destruction of AAA)
Kemp (we all know he's got the ability to hit for power)
Martin
LaRoche
Repko/Ethier (Ethier's here if he's playing)
Repko/Guzman (Guzman's here if he's playing)
If I could toss Izzy to the back of the lineup, I'd put Loney in the 2 slot, LaRoche in the 3.
Thats one reason.
Not sure how he fooled the Yankees before though.
I'll give it a shot.
Arranged by batting order.
Aybar- 2B
Laroche-3B
Kemp- CF
Ethier- LF
Martin- C
Guzman- RF
Loney- 1B
Furcal- SS
P
4th OF- Young
Izturis on the bench as a late inning sub, which is what he should be right now.
2.Aybar
3.LaRoche
4.Kemp
5.Guzman
6.Ethier
7.Loney
8.Martin
9.Pitcher
Aybar and Martin can be flip flopped. There is no point to playing Izturis if we keep all our prospects.
...especially the jerks on my fantasy team (Gomes and Navarro).
You have to consider that Kemp would be a 5th outfielder if he stayed up. Let's be real. Grady has shown that he will only play the youngsters when forced by injury. You are assuming Kemp will get consistent ABs. He might not even get to play once a week if he stays up here.
This is a skill developed over time, and I think there's evidence suggesting that it's one that is best learned incrementally. Pitchers at AAA are more deceptive and have more movement than pitchers at AA, but less than those in the majors. Rather than being totally fooled and learning little from it, a player can recognize his mistake and make the minor adjustments necessary to compete at that level. Then, he moves up. Jumping levels without an unbelievable ability to handle pitches (see Pujols, Albert) seems to leave younger hitters in a tough situation. They know they're being fooled but it's by a wider margin and therefore harder to make the correct adjustment. This forces them to try multiple solutions which aren't always the best and can mess with a hitter's swing.
How so?
I've heard this bantered about, and dont agree with the logic at all.
What is the logic? Will bad habits form at an early age from facing MLB pitching? If anything, I'd think the opposite would be true. MLB's pitchers study tape, they have advanced scouts, etc...Those forces force hitters to make adjustments, and then growth takes place.
I think bad hahits can and do form at the minor league level though.
I'd go
Furcal
Martin
Ethier/Kemp
Laroche
Guzman
Kemp/Ethier
Loney
Izzy
I'd take Ethier or Kemp at #3.
If using Repko, I'd make him a #2 guy, with Martin at 7 and Izzy at 8.
Some highlights from the today's minor league action.
Blake DeWitt maybe getting it together with 2 homers and 4 RBI at Vero Beach today.
John Meloan, a 2005 5th round pick out of Arizona, started the year in Columbus, where he struck out 41 in 23 1/3 IP, had his first relief situation tonight and struck out 4, walked 1 and gave up a hit in 4 1/3 IP while getting the win.
Scott Elbert won his second game in AA, 6 IP, 6 K, 5 BB, 1 hit and no runs.
Hu and Abreu went 7-10, Hu had a homer and a double.
a. Their worst pitcher (ERA-wise) is their closer
b. The ERAs of their 2 best relievers (Rodney and Zumaya) combined is approximately the same as their closer
c. Said closer is 3rd in the AL with 24 saves
d. Said closer has a 2-5 W-L record (including today's win)
e. Said closer makes about 5 times as much as the two best relievers combined
How will the Dodgers know that Kemp is learning that skill?
He struck out 41? Forget Billingsley! =P (sorry, couldn't resist)
Good to hear about Meloan.
I am also a big fan of DeWitt and I always thought it was a matter of time before he started hitting. He has the chance to be the best hitter of all our prospects I think (he won't have the same power numbers, but he is a second baseman).
You suggest he's pressing too hard, which causes him to go after these pitches. But even if he's going after bad pitches to swing at, he should be able to analyze them and at least come close or make contact. It's one thing to swing at a bad pitch. It's another entirely to have no idea where it's going when you do swing at it.
I agree that it's not very smart.
But I'd rather that Kemp continue improving in the minors than languishing on the bench.
I will respectfully disagree with you bruin
The Marlins showed no fear in bringing up Miguel Cabrera the year they won the WS. He didnt even have a great 2003. He was average. But they stuck with him throughout that whole year.
They didnt bench him in order to play veterans like Conine/Encarnacion.
Joey, let me elaborate on something here. I think Kemp's being sent to the minors was a good move. I think players generally succeed when they are brought along at a proper pace. Now, that having been said, I don't want it to seem like I entirely disagree with your point of view.
I think one of the most annoying things, as a fan, is when a team has a lot of talent in the minors and lets it simply simmer for years while overpaid veterans struggle to stay above .500. However, I don't think that's the case here - the prospects are just now approaching the points in their developments cycles where they should be getting to the big club, and some have done a better job of sticking than others.
I think that, at worst, you could make the argument that a player going back to AAA for three months might, might retard his development very slightly. I don't agree with it, but feel free to make the point - however, it's not like we're shipping him off to the Australian penal colony for a decade. It's 3 months in AAA, where, assuming he's the player we all believe and hope he is, he'll dominate the competition and come into 2007 full of confidence and a year more experienced.
Now, on the flip side, you could be making the argument that this is simply a look into a damaging philosophy the Dodger front office seems to have. I think there's merit to that. But everybody keeps saying, "yeah, deals XYZ aren't particularly harmful, but they give insight into what the leadership could do!"
I'm a glass-half-full kind of fan. I don't agree with everything that's happened here, but I think the team is still poised to do a lot of good things. Destroying the front office for relatively-inconsequential moves because they might be precursors to something terrible is, I think, unneccessary. If some major mistake is done, we won't have been able to prevent it no matter what we say, and believe you me there will be plenty of shirt-rending and tooth-gnashing and so-on. Until then, I think it's best to treat this move for what it is:
something some people agree with, some disagree with, but likely to have a largely minimal impact on the franchise, and an impact at that which could in the long run be beneficial depending on your viewpoint.
However, I'm curious. Do you disagree with my belief that players can learn to better recognize pitches moving through the minors... Or the claim that Kemp does not have a well-developed sense of this skill?
I agree, I think Kemp is plenty talented and will be able to correct his problems. But I believe he'll be able to work through them more successfully spending some time at AAA. Though I mentioned he could flame out, I don't believe he will - I just noted that there is the possibility that his great start was a fluke.
I hear ya, I really like his power but his 21 year old unpatient mind needs to know he's not gonna hit every pitch walks are also good. It's very interesting to me seeing how a player matures, should be fun watching all the kids.
Indeed it should. :)
Now, time to log off. If anybody's left reading this (Bluebleeder87 included), g'night, nice talking with ya, and here's to dreaming of Matt Kemp, Triple Crown winner.
again thats false. Collins recently talked about Blake Dewitt and how he should be doing better then he has done (this was before a couple weeks ago). He specifically cited Dewitt's lack of plate discipline as something He should be doing better. So I don't know where you get your reports, but they are wrong. Dodgers player development do stress strike zone discipline.
99AB 283/417/646 11hr 21bb 16k
DON'T ARGUE WITH THE WANGERDOODLE!
Maybe he's regained it, but the reason he pitched poorly with the Dodgers was the he lost his dominating velocity. He basically had a magic arm that could get away with mistakes. His peripherals really werent very good in the minors after his injury.
THAT IS BECAUSE HE CAN'T THROW A BREAKING BALL FOR A STRIKE!
I dont think anyone said Kemp was going to hit 45HRs this year. But there were some that said he was better than Kenny Lofton. He is. He's better now. He'll be better in the future.
You've picked out June 20th. Whats KLoft hitting since then?
In June, KLoft hit .262/.295/.310- 84Abs
In July, KLoft hit .231/.300/.308- 26Abs
Season- .286/.342/.371
Dave Roberts 2004- .253/.340/.356
I think MB31 mentioned before that Lofton:Kemp:Roberts:Werth
He's right.
If the Dodgers still had a competant young CF'er that was worthy of playing everyday, then of course send Kemp down. But the problem here is KLoft.
http://tinyurl.com/hu9dw
Basically starts on 269. Don't mean to say I told you so but.... okay, I mean to just a little bit.
The ADD LaRoche just hit a home run. That shut up that junky announcer.
My point of contention is Greg S saying Andre Ethier has a better approach to hitting than Matt Kemp. There isnt one stat that will back that up. There isnt one hitting result that will back that up.
Now there is.
Kemp: .316 .500 .279
Eithier: .390 .523 .339
But those are results oriented statistics. I thought that previously, when you wanted to disregard the results, you were arguing that Ethier's approach was better.
To me, approach would mean pitches seen per plate appearance and walk rate. I dont think Kemp/Ethier are very far apart in those categories.
And approach is NOT just pitches seen per plate appearance. It's things hitting the ball where it's pitched and being aggressive in some situations and protective in others. Those things do not show up in the stats in the short run. But they do in the long run.
That was an interesting thread because you basically had people like me agreeing with you that Kemp would not maintain his production. Pretty much all people like me were saying is that not every at-bat Kemp had had was a bad one.
In 299, you are really overstating the opposition against you. It looks like the discussion was between you, myself and a couple of others, all of whom were agreeing that Kemp could not continue to hit .350 but some of whom just wanted more time to judge. I said I expected Kemp might have to go through a learning curve. It looks like maybe one person said just look at the stats.
If you want to make an "I told you so" moment out of that, that's fine. But it looks like a case of false martyrdom to me, rather than getting "pretty seriously blasted" from all sides.
I think this is an example of how exaggerated the language in here can get.
I was out much of the evening and it looks like it was a good night to miss. People seem to be thriving on seeing if they can out-negative each other. I'm not talking about offering simple critiques of the team, I'm talking about the end-of-the-world reactions to the smallest events. I feel like somehow, people have gotten the idea that's the cool thing to do. No extreme is too extreme.
The best teams lose 62 games a year, and a team like the Dodgers is going to lose 70 or more no matter what. It's time to get used to it.
I've said this before, but this site is not meant to be your rubber room. It's not the place where you shout to the hills. It's a discussion room. Shout all you want at your computer at home, but when you start typing, try to have some perspective. And don't make the same point over and over again as if no one can hear you.
Let's keep this a place where people want to hang out. Critique what you want, but think about the language that you use. Don't be in such a rush.
Kemp was sent to AAA today. That I would bring up a thread where I said I think he's not ready and others said that stats prove otherwise-- I think that's totally fair.
It's not being negative and it's a valid point on the most interesting Dodger news of the day.
You say this site isn't to be our rubber room but what do you have at the very top right?
I can't seem to be here without pissing you off and It's your place. I don't have that problem elsewhere and I'm confused and bummed by it. I'm not being a martyr, that just seems to be a fact.
Also, most psychological dealings are negotiated outside of rubber rooms. Rubber rooms are a last ditch, not usually effective in anything but housing the completely disfunctional, and not things anybody would want to spend his free time sitting in.
I think you miss the point.
Kemp being sent down doesnt prove that he's not ready. Its not like the kid doesnt have the numbers to be here, considering his compeition on the team. I think his stats still show he deserves to be on the team.
His demotion just further demonstrates the incompetance IMO of Ned Colletti. Nothing more, nothing less. If you thought Ned would demote him, good for you.
I'm talking about the end-of-the-world reactions to the smallest events.
When little moves add up, the summation is an "end-of-the-world" result.
-Izturis over Aybar/Saenz
-Lofton over Kemp
-Hall over Navarro
-Tomko/Hendrickson over Odalis Perez
-Tomko over Billingsley (impending)
Sure, each individual move taken by itself, isnt the difference between winning a WS and losing a WS. But over time, bad decisions will add up. Bad decisions give an overall feel to the philosophical direction of the LA Dodgers. I'm pretty sure most of us here like the Dodgers and care about what happens to them, so every little bit of news helps to shape our opinion of the team. I think the realization of what the roster is going to look like over the next couple months, is bringing out the frustration level. Its been building for a couple weeks, but in the next few weeks it could get really bad.
JoeyP -- You've made that arugment before, and I've asked you this question before. You may have answered it, but if so, I didn't see it, so I'll ask again: do you have any evidence that a hitter's BABIP will regress to anything other than that hitter's career norms? All the evidence I've seen says that a pitcher has little control over his BABIP, but that doesn't mean a hitter doesn't. In fact, since quite clearly some hitters are consistently better than others, there is reason to believe BABIP for hitter is a demonstrable, repeatable skill. Do you have any evidence that says otherwise?
This is not to say that Ethier's average won't come down. But saying his batting average is high just due to luck is, I think, unfounded.
It's obvious that The Times has no quality control, since they keep printing the rantings and ravings of Bill Plaschke, who is well on his way to being as baseless in his allegations as Ann Coulter. To somehow equate the trading of Paul Lo Duca and the acquisition of Brad Penny as ruining the potential "dominance" of the Dodgers in the Western Division is just laughable.
The 2004 division crown, while exciting and fun, was built upon a series of fortuitous events and especially the tremendous year of Adrian Beltre who, clearly, has reverted to his pumpkin status. Guillermo Mota has not been very effective since he left L.A. and Eric Gagne's arm injuries have more to do with the internal structure of his body than with the loss of Mota and Lo Duca.
KEN MARCUS
Los Angeles
*
How does Plaschke continue to dismiss the Brad Penny trade despite ever-growing evidence that the Dodgers are reaping the benefits of the deal? After reading his July 12 article, I can't decide whether he's being stupid or stubborn about it.
JONATHAN GEORGE
Villa Park
*
Can't Bill Plaschke stick to writing heartwarming stories about athletes who overcame bad childhoods? When he writes about the Dodgers, he apparently removes his brain and replaces it with a parrot in his head, squawking the same meaningless rant over and over.
PAUL GOODWIN
Culver City
If I remember correctly, regfairfield indicated that LD% does not seem to be a repeatable skill, which complicates things well beyond my ability to make heads or tails of them. Though, it doesn't take much to do that.
http://dodgermath.com/?p=412
Ethier's hasnt hit enough line drives to think his .420 BABIP will hold up over time.
Its possible to have a .400 BABIP and not have it considered luck, if you hit a bunch of line drives every at bat you have. Line drives have a 77% chance of being hits.
However, a hitter that doesnt hit many line drives, but still has a high BABIP is getting lucky. Unless Ethier's being credited with ground balls/soft fly balls on hits in which he should have been credited with line drives on, I think at this point he's gotten very lucky and is due for a large regression, unless he starts hitting more line drives consistently.
But a pitcher's line drive percentage will fluctuate over time.
I think Tom Meagher said this when Hendrickson was discussed.
Ignore 333 altogether.
Thankfully, I do not read the LA Times, because I had no idea Plaschke still talks about that trade. He really hates DePodesta it seems, because why would he keep harping on this? Martin is 148th in VORP and Lo Duca is 149th, I found that kind of funny.
I love the Ann Coulter line.
Ethier isn't a very patient hitter, but he has much better pitch recognition than Kemp. It's not about drawing walks or working the count (though I prefer to see most hitters take a pitch). The hitter's objective is to identify his pitch and to avoid swinging at the pitcher's pitch. Ethier is a pretty aggressive hitter, but he usually waits for his pitch and will swing at no matter what the count is. You can't argue with the results.
Kemp on the other hand doesn't seem to have a plan at the plate. It looks like he's strictly looking for fastballs and only wants to drive to left/left center. He often swings at pitcher's pitches and the power outage has probably made him even more aggressive than ever. He's pressing. Ethier is better at going with the pitch. Kemp will learn though; he's 3 years younger than Ethier.
"On the bright side, we didn't make any mistakes running the bases, we only left two runners on base and we didn't miss any signs," he said.
great point, I wonder how that's going? I'm sure the Royals will dish out the 4 mill, that's just crazy 4,000,000.00 WOW
As for the first part, if you can explain to me how three people disagreeing with you politely and one other (me) having some exasperation constitutes a pretty serious blasting, I'll withdraw my comment.
I'm sorry that we haven't been on the same page and I take some responsibility for that.
Andrew has it right in 325. The slogan at the top of this site is an indication of a goal to try to talk things through here, not bounce off the walls. (Again, this wasn't directed at you.)
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