1985 - 137 K's
1986 - 306 K's

He'll tell you he just started bearing down more.

I vividly remember Stewart as a Dodger. He didn't have the forkball back then--that's the big difference between Dave the Dodger and Dave the 20-game winner--but as I recall he was similar to Bills; hard thrower with occasional brilliance mixed in with some very frustrating appearances.

I'll be fine if Chad turns out to be another Dave Stewart so long as he does so in a Dodger uniform.

But if he doesn't, Barry Zito isn't a big K pitcher, and he's pretty good (even though he did have an 8.61 K/9 one year, and 7.14/9 his cy young year).

Also, despite having K stuff, Bartolo Colon only had a 6.35 K/9 in his Cy Young year, and has never been a huge K pitcher. So you don't have to K people all the time.

2
Dave Stewart, classy pitcher, classy front office guy, classy agent. He'll always be one of my top guys for beating Clemens head to head in big games when I couldn't stand the rocket. Probably only happened once but my memory thinks it was more.

The Dodgers won despite their presence on the roster.

http://retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B08090LAN1987.htm

The Dodgers won despite the entire team's presence on the roster. (Minus Orel and Gibson, of course).

http://insidethedodgers.mlblogs.com/my_weblog/2006/07/allstar_game_an_1.html

Park struck out almost 10 hitters/9ip in 1996 in 108 innings, though some in a relief role. He stabilized around 8 K/9 in his first six seasons with slight improvement in the last 3 seasons.

Ismael Valdez was very consistently in the low 6s.

Lucille I sustained a rate over 8 until 1991, when it dropped off a cliff to 6.13 and remained there or lower through 1994.

Welch is interesting. He spiked from 5.3 in 1978 to 7.1 (81 innings, 15 starts in 25 games) in '79, then dropped below 6 again as a full-time starter in '80-81 and back up close to 7 in '82-83.

Astacio fluctuated between 6 and 7 from '92-97.

Sutcliffe never struck out even 6/9ip until he jumped to 7.8 in his Cy Young season in 1984.

Based on this small, arbitrary sample we might conclude that Chad is likely to improve his K rates somewhat before he hits free agency, maybe settling in the 6-7 range.

Reggie Sanders is a productive outfielder I suppose but don't we already have a Reggie Sanders in Kenny Lofton?

Year - K/9
'01 - 5.59
'02 - 7.06
'03 - 6.40
'04 - 10.03
'05 - 8.10

In addition his K/BB has improved as dramatically annually too.

you weren't kidding when you said tease.

I know that Sanders strikes out with high heat.

Depends on what you mean by "results." If you mean wins over losses, then no. Because if a guy is winning despite poor peripherals, it's probably just good luck, and will not last. As a fan of a team, a lucky win is a good as a "deserved" win, but in terms of roster slots and payroll, you want to pay for skill, not luck.

We know that, other than knuckleballers, holding opposing batters to a low BA on balls in play (BABIP) is not a skill, because it doesn't show any consistency year to year (to say nothing of game to game). Pitchers have individual control over Ks, BBs, and HRs. The rest is largely luck.

That's why, if I understand it correctly, K rates and walk rates are such important indicators of actual talent. Strikeouts don't have to be from overwhelming stuff - look at Greg Maddux - but they need to be there for a pitcher to have a good career. That's why I'm not a huge Zito fan. I don't trust that he can keep this up. I could be wrong - there will be the occasional exceptional pitcher who can get guys out consistently on balls in play.

OF course, none of this addresses Jon's question as to how soon decent K-rates have to show up in the majors to predict a good or great career. That's a terrific question.

Don't sleep on Rob Bowen either, who has an .854 OPS in 51 AB's.

That's how you carry three catchers (and even in SD I can't figure out why they are doing it).

http://tinyurl.com/mvgbl

Zito's BABIP is consistently low. I beleive the theory is that his curve is so wicked, that like a knuckleball, it not that hard to hit, but very hard to hit solidly.

http://tinyurl.com/hxq9h

I'm not sure which is creepier - the subject of the story, or the voice of his captor.

We're also looking at a pretty small number of innings. Each strikout recorded by Hershiser in 1984 moved the needle, so to speak, by about 0.2 K/9ip. That's a lot.

This is a really fun list. Good post.

Haha, I just read over your dream. Good stuff. Your Wife might be right.

If you want to find this go to MLB.com, and divide the pitches/IP by 3.

Natch, if you don't strike batters out, and also manage to avoid giving up HRs, then having a good defense behind you is more important than for TTO pitchers. But I'm pretty sure that research shows that high K rates, low HR rates, and low walk rates are all MUCH better predictors of future success than low opponents' BA or W/L records.

I also said, quite explicitly, that there are exceptions. But I'd rather not bet that any 21 yr old will turn out to be one of those exceptions.

And didn't Glavine get a lot of Ks during his glory years? Many of them on pitches a foot outside, as I recall, but a strikeout is a strikeout.

Answering my own question: Glavine's career K/9 is 5.38. He peaked at 7.62 in 1994 and was at 7.01 in 1991 and 6.16 in 1998, his two Cy Young years. This year, he's back at 6.16 K/9.

https://griddle.baseballtoaster.com/archives/437199.html

The story I remember best was of Maddux, in a meeting on the mound, saying that he would get the batter to fly out to the warning track in LC field (or whatever) on the next pitch - that he had that much control over outcomes. It must be apocryphal, because even Maddux's BABIP numbers bounce all over the place.

http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B07221CHN1997.htm

Not that the boxscore has the pitch count.

your joking right?

I really did think it was 68 vs. the Dodgers, but I wouldn't have put any money on it. I also thought it was more recent than 1997, but then at my age, decades fly by like, well, half-decades used to.

Los Angeles Dodgers Assistant (to the) GM Roy Smith allegedly told Tampa police he was doing "due diligence" on the players prior to his team acquiring them via trade.

"Whatever -- people don't ask about those guys," said an unidentified Rays spokesperson. However, when the identity of the alleged stalker was revealed, the spokesperson responded, "Sweet!" and immediately reached for his cell phone.

The Devil Rays have since requested that all charges be dropped.

Amazing.

I still don't believe you.

Carlos Silva had a 74 pitch complete game last season for the Twins.

Would you believe... Kim Ng?

Logan White?

Terry Collins?

Tom Collins?

I remember the Silva game very well, I didn't see the game but I remember being somebody posting about it. 74 pitches is really impressive.

"Because now I'm really thinking," Repko said. "And on the next pitch, I'm looking at the ball coming out of his hand and it's a foot out of the strike zone. So in my mind, I"ve already made the decision not to swing at it. Then it starts this crazy break, and by the time I'm realizing what happened, it's too late. He's got me. Boom, it breaks (away) on the corner for a strike. Amazing."

I'm convinced Maddux is best described as a hard-throwing control knuckleballer.

http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B06080BAL2002.htm

36
I'm be more then willing to bet the so called excellent Detroit defense will not help Kenny Rogers when he collapses in the 2nd half just like they didn't help him become one of the best 1st half pitchers in baseball for the last 10 years when he wasn't pitching in Detroit but in AL bandboxes.

Not for a second, Timmermann. Just like I don't believe Gotay and Keppinger have never been in your kitchen.

Google News backs me up.

Who or what is a Ruben Gotay?

They really need to put the names on the back of the uniforms.

A Reuben Gotay is a facial hairpiece made from thinly sliced corned beef.

Rollins lines out weakly to short.

http://tinyurl.com/pmutr

If Loney can become Adrian Gonzalez I'll be very happy. He is a very good comp of a slick fielding 1st baseman who everyone said didn't have enough power to carry his weight as an everyday 1st baseman. I wonder what they are saying now now that he's hit twice as money home runs as JD at 1/20 the cost. The 327 OBP needs some work but overall the Padres must really be happy with his production.

I don't suggest this game for those of you at work right now.

I also loved the continuation of Warren Coolidge from The White Shadow as an orderly.

John Manuel: I have my list right here, and I would have put him probably in the 13-17 range. Hard to say, I like Miller a lot as a prospect, but I also think Scott Elbert is the best lefty in the minors right now, and Elbert's pitched a full pro season, he's physical, he's much stronger than Miller (who obviously is taller) . . . tough call. I'd lean toward Miller there but I like Elbert a lot.
------------------------------------------

Dietrich Jache from Los Angeles Dodgers asks:
Who is the best Prospect in the Dodger Organization and why? For how long to you forsee the Dodgers being at the top of the minor league development system?
A:

John Manuel: Elbert, because he's a power-pitching, athletic LHP with stuff and aptitude who has shown improvement. We had the Dodgers' system No. 1 in our Prospect Handbook, though it droipped to No. 2 when the Diamondbacks signed Upton and traded for Chris Young. I don't see the D-backs giving up that No. 1 spot really easily, and the Dodgers graduated a lot of talent to the majors, so I don't see the Dodgers being No. 1 again this year.

--------------------------------------

Fred from Madison asks:
If Matthew Kemp would have been eligible for the top 25, would he have make it? He is back in the minors, so wondering were he fits in. Thanks again John.
A:

John Manuel: Thank you Fred. Matt Kemp, as I believe I've written before in chats, is a guy we blew it on in that we ranked him high, but never as high as Logan White told us we should. Not like Logan was that specific, but he's ALWAYS been extremely high on Kemp. He liked Kemp as much as any player he got in the '03 draft, one that also netted the Dodgers Chad Billingsley, Chuck Tiffany, Xavier Paul and Travis Denker among others. We didn't listen hard enough and looked too much at the numbers--the K-BB ratio and the home-road splits last year at Vero Beach. I would probably put Kemp at No. 7, ahead of Butler, right there after Milledge.
---------------------------------

- Relative junk thrower Orel on top of the list.

- That nobody has noted that the bottom three pitchers include both Billingsley and his agent.

good input, thanks for that.

November 1, 1960 I believe was the DOB.

Brewers holding on 6-5 but the Giants have 2nd and 3rd with one out.

some people look older (Fernando) some people look younger (Biggio)

what dose Vinnie call him "the baby faced assassin"

How dare DePodesta mess with 1st place team chemistry!

I have no idea if he had a fake birth certificate. Even if he did, I wouldn't really care. I have some great memories of watching Fernando pitch at Dodger Stadium when I was just getting into following baseball closely. He was my favorite dodger for the longest time.

Some people just like to work whether they need to or not.

Pena was initially thought to be five years younger, but a birth-certificate scandal changed all of that. He's still a solid prospect, albeit an older one with a different name, so watch this fireballer if he sees innings late this season in spot starts.

Well, would you take Verlander or a guy with a 9K/9 innings with a 4 ERA?

"I love it, he flat out rakes. Really nice swing with great timing and rhythm. Hard contact to all fields, excellent pitch selection -- he's going to be a .300+ hitter with 30-35 doubles and 15 home runs in the big leagues. He's got a chance to be special. He's rough with the glove, there's no other way to put it. His range isn't real good, his feet aren't real quick, his hands aren't real good. But he's 20, he's a good athlete, and has great make-up -- there's no reason he can't become playable there (at 2B)."

It's a combination of all of these factors that make a young, unproven pitcher seem more or less likely to be effective as their career progresses. That's what this thread is all about. Out of all these factors mentioned in the paragraph above, K/9 and BB/9 are about the only things that pitchers seem to be able to consistently control year after year, so they're taken very seriously.

It's worth noting that some people advocate a K/batter faced instead of K/9 since K/9 only reflects the outs a pitcher records and not ALL the batters he faces, including walks, hbp, hits allowed, etc.

Always take the guy with better peripheral numbers. If you just look at ERA and ignore peripherals, you get Seo'ed, Baez'ed, or Hendrickson'ed.

I'm lazy myself, but being at home all day drove me crazy sometimes.

If someone has a low or high ERA, I want to know how he achieved it. Did he give up a bunch of base runners, but manage to wiggle out of jams constantly, or did the pitcher just dominate the hitters..?

How an ERA is achieved is more important than the actual ERA for predicting future performance.

Roy's whimsical attitude on the post gives me the slightest bit of encouragement that he's potentially aboard with trading for this hypothetical player, which makes me feel a little bit more at ease.

But let's see - 9 K/9 and 4 ERA vs. Verlander's 5.7 K/9 and 2.83 IP. I have to assume that your hypothetical holds all else equal. Otherwise, it's pointless. All else equal, I'd still take the guy with the higher K/9. Is all else close to equal? Same age? Same HR rate? These are park-adjusted ERAs (Verlander plays in pitcher-friendly Comerica, but oddly, is better on the road)? Because if so, small sample size aside, the "other guy" must have an higher ERA only because of higher BABIP. IOW, worse luck so far (in a small sample of innings).

If, OTOH, Verlander is an extreme GB pitcher (he's actually 1.28 GB/FB) and the anonymous other guy gives up a lot of HRs, then the ERA diff is explained by HRs, not BABIP, and I'd take Verlander.

Let's make things as equal as possible. Look at teammates, just in 2006.

Bonderman: 23yo, 125 IP, 3.59 ERA, 8.55 K/9, 1.98 GB/FB
Verlander: 23yo, 117 IP, 2.83 ERA, 5.74 K/9, 1.25 GB/FB

I'll take Bonderman, thank you very much.

Yeah, it could get pretty boring, I'm going on my 5th month, but my sister is gonna hook me up at her job.

http://blogs.nbc.com/office/entry_20.html

http://tinyurl.com/h9zog

As for BB rates: Bonderman 2.5/9IP, Verlander 2.7/9IP. So obviously Bonderman's K/BB is much better (though both are very good).

So Bonderman is better on everything except ERA. The difference has to be worse luck than Verlander on BABIP, so far.

The 6-foot-5 first baseman/outfielder admitted Sunday he is close to signing a deal with the Dodgers that would see him begin his pro career this fall in Arizona."

Funny, my dad's actually traveling up in BC right now and skipping over the depressing world news in the local paper, ran across another item about Orr. He's a BMOC up there apparently.

I really think the Dodgers had a good draft, a very good draft (for blue-blooded players/ Of independent means).

is he a power hitter/dose he have a high ceiling?

Wouldn't it be cool if the Dodgers followed suit and broadcast a handful of their farm system games on the parent network?

http://kyleorr.com/

Nice site layout. I like big blocky patches of primary colors in my website design.

We have an insatiable desire out here to watch beach volleyball apparently.

let's see what he dose.

[Files this away in case Orr doesn't sign...]

Love the double entendre.