Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
If you believe the Dodgers are a playoff contender, is there any trade you would make that you wouldn't make if you didn't believe?
Most people seem to think the team's probability of winning affects (or should affect) decisions. For the most part, I disagree. Five games up or five games out, I think I'd have essentially the same approach.
If I thought a huge short-term boost would make a difference, the standings wouldn't change that. If I weren't worried about reaching .500, I'd be worried about winning the division. If I weren't worried about winning the division, I'd be worried about winning the World Series. If I weren't worried about winning the World Series ...
Sorry - got lost in the Land of Chocolate for the moment.
Too much is made of the long-term vs. the short term. What's right is right for both. If it isn't worth trading a prospect for two months of a major leaguer when your team is at or below .500, it isn't worth doing at or below .600.
Okay, there might be an exception here and there, but I think it's a pretty good rule.
If the Gang of Four thought that a trade of "star" or "familiar" Dodgers like Nomar, Kent, or Izturis would be a net positive for the organization, would the McCourts allow it?
70 It's not that anyone believes, empirically, that the season is over. It's because some of us want it to be over. If we can't be as good as the best team, this thinking goes, we might as well go into full rebuild mode. The veterans are...old. So they've gotta go.
My response is: We've got a rookie right fielder, a rookie catcher, a rookie in our starting rotation, and a rookie high on the bullpen depth chart. The glass is more than half-full! Ethier, Martin, Billingsley and Broxton are ready for prime time. The others, with one possible exception, are not.
If Matt Kemp hadn't gone into a damaging slump, he'd be playing centerfield most games, right now, and Lofton would be trade bait. I guarantee that neither Colletti nor Little are dumb enough to start Lofton over Kemp if they didn't think Kemp needed more work in the minors. To have him "work out his problems" swinging and missing major league curveballs for the next two months would be malpractice.
Likewise, the comment someone made about Aybar's poor footwork at second base. Just "leave him out there?" That's ignorant. Derek Lowe and Brad Penny are trying to win major league ballgames. What could be worse for Aybar's development and confidence than to subject him to the scorn of competitive major league pitchers for blowing their win opportunities with klutzy fielding?
If you think Aybar has a future with the Dodgers, you want him back in AAA as soon as Kent returns. You can "leave him out there" in Vegas every day, and he will probably learn something. In LA, all he'll "learn" is that he has no business wearing a major league uniform. You might think that's investing in the future, but it's actually killing the future.
I think a case could be made for Loney, but an equally strong case can be made that he's better off building his confidence in Vegas, coming into Spring Training next year with a sense that he belongs. By Spring Training, we'll also have Nomar's role worked out -- third baseman, ex-Dodger or whatever. You can't really argue that our best offensive player, who has a one-year contract, is "blocking" Loney in 2006. A GM who thought that way would be sharkbait.
I like the sabermetric thinking around here, but it seems to be abandoned in favor of "who's to say?" thinking when it comes to the prospects. Everyone who is excited about the Dodgers' future prospects ought to calm the *$&%^ down. Going into this season, no one was predicting much more than Billingsley and Broxton for 2006. We're already ahead of schedule. Relax!
Beyond that, I don't think Kent and Izturis would be viewed as the face. Nomar, maybe, though he's hardly on the Gagne level.
5 They would trade God if it got them some good publicity///
Which doesn't cost prospects and gives prospects valuable MLB at bats/innings by opening up roster spots for promotions.
It also may add a decent prospect or 2 to the system.
By the way the prospects promoted might produce better than the mediocre veteran subtracted (i.e. izturis, lofton).
What mode i'm not in is trading productive veterans (i.e penny, lowe, kent, drew, saito).
I think the Dodgers have lost sight of those ideals. If they can build a team with that plan in mind, they will succeed.
It's time to get Al Pedrique back on the job in Arizona.
Wait, I'm still doing the math of that sentence... I'm confused! =)
If you're 48-52, five games out, do you get him?
If you're 52-48 and tied for first, do you get him?
If you're 57-43 and up by five games, do you get him?
Why would your answers to these questions be different? (Sincere question, not rhetorical)
Trade all the vets on 1-year contracts that the club has no intention of offering arbitration to for next season.
Lofton, Saito, Ledee, Cruz, Saenz, Hall, Baez, Beimel should all be on the table.
The Dodgers would be absolutely nuts if they didnt trade Saito. He's at the top of his value, and his value is much greater to a contender than the Dodgers.
I'd only want 2 months of Barry Zito if it added to an already WS caliber club.
Trading prospects for Barry Zito, when the team has no shot at winning the WS, would be stupid. Why not keep the prospects, and just sign Zito in the off-season if that were the case?
That being said I will still follow the Dodgers very closely, just not as closely as years past. Watching Izzy, Drew, Aybar, and Cruz bat makes me ill. They give me the hateful harry's. They can all be DFA'd for all I care.
Acquiring Zito to squeak out a division title in the weak NL West while giving up some prospects doesnt make sense to me.
The reality is the team has too many flaws right now and picking up a rental will not fix anything (other than making the press happy).
On the other hand, I can see the progress (or regress) in midseason changing your valuations of players/positions and what you need get in order to improve the team.
Not that I think either the plan is happening or a realization that valuations were erroneous... just I like to imagine the GM is capable of such.
Now, he's giving up baseball?
Well, that was quick.
As in every relationship, there's things that annoy about the other. For instance, I could do without the inability to drive in men on base. It hurts me that they won't do that for me. For us.
I guess you always hurt the one you love.
It scares me that you've just figured out that in the overall scheme of things baseball isn't that important.
I completely disagree with Jon on his header column. There are trades I would make in last place that I wouldn't consider if I were in 1st place and visa versa. For example if we were in 1st place I would not consider trading JD Drew, however at this moment if Detroit offered me Humberto Sanchez and Will Ledezma the same package they offered the Nat's for Soriano I'd take it. It would free 11 million this winter for better use and give us another solid pitching prospect and someone who might be able to help in the rotation today. This trade would hurt the team short term but would help the team long term. Anyway to me there are hundreds of scenarios like the one I describe and I don't see how you can't look at your current situation when deciding what to look for, whether it be immediate or long term help.
Here is a small snippet from the BA article today written by Tony Jackson on how the Dodger youth movement came early.
"The Dodgers acquired Ethier, who had never played in the big leagues, from the Athletics last December for Milton Bradley and Antonio Perez, two players the Dodgers knew were spare parts. Colletti apparently mentioned during the Winter Meetings that Oakland was willing to part with Ethier, and as the story goes, longtime Dodgers scout Al LaMacchia immediately perked up and said, "You have a chance to get Ethier? Get him
...................................
Who said I'm giving up baseball, JoeyP? Do you even take the time read others posts?
I hope your father is recovering.
Take your Elavil and relax. By the end of next week Cruz won't be batting LH anymore, Izzy will be doing his fungo act elsewhere, JD will either be on the DL or will be in a full blown Vlady July breakout and Aybar will who knows.
Scatch 32, my hopes that your father recovers. Yes, baseball is just a game compared to life.
my father passed away about a year ago, so I think that puts things in perspective for me.
I think 24 was maybe not as clear as I'd like. I'm fairly certain that "those in charge" realize another outfielder and an ace or two pitchers are high on the need list, while First Base and Shortstop are on the have enough list. Those things don't change trades you'd make or make right now.
In regards to Zito, I do think that money+long term commitment do matter in mid-season trades. So 20 and 23 are good points that I basically agree with.
One other thing that I think bears on this. You can't always look at players and say "this is what's going to happen as a worst case scenario, and that looks imminent" because that's when Pedro Martinez and Paul Konerko (etc, etc) trades happen. There is always a risk that a player will get hurt. There is also always a chance that a player will get better or worse based on some mechanical issue that coaches see or think they see. For the most part, I doubt anybody here has a clear handle on how the Dodger organization judges the injury risk, or the potential change they see in certain players.
If you're 52-48 and tied for first, do you get him? I think you need to stay the course, and keep seasoning those rookies who have gotten you there. However, you can't move the spare parts at this point while you're in the race.
If you're 57-43 and up by five games, do you get him? NOW I'm thinking about it. The playoffs are not a certainty every year, so you need to grab the opportunity while you can. I think you look closely at where you project your lineup, roster and budget to be over the next 3-4 seasons, address what spare prospects you can part with, and try and make a deal.
But a) that's really just one scenario, no matter how many hypothetical trades you can think of making within it, and b) if you're in true last place, you probably don't have very many J.D. Drews to deal - players that would yield bigtime prospects.
Certainly, I'm not advising not to "look at your current situation." What I'm saying is that in most cases, your needs will be the same.
Realizing that we don't know the composition of this hypothetical 57-43 team and why it's winning, one could argue that the better you are, the less of a difference maker he can be - and therefore, the lower return on investment you get on trading your prospects.
I would be waiting until the off-season as teams start building their '07 teams and can see penciling in Izzy as their everyday SS, and likewise the Dodgers can receive someone who helps them long-term. (The Orioles come to mind as a team that may need a SS next year.)
Spare parts like Cruz Jr. (a good OF half-platoon) and even Saenz (DH platoon) are guys I'm looking to move now.
By trading for $9MM (estimate) in players salary (Baez, Carter, Hendrickson and Hall) makes it more difficult to take on a high priced rental to help in the short term.
I am not even mentioning the fact that we havent received equal value for the players we dealt (at the time we dealt them).
vr, Xei
I've got a sly plan for JD that accomplishes 2 things. We trade him to the Yanks for a mid level prospect. What does this accomplish?
1) Frees up 33 million over the next 3 seasons to get somebody that's a consistent offensive threat.
2) Revenge. The Dodgers used to be a 87+ win team before JD came along. We are an abysmal 118-144 since he hopped aboard. Ship him off to NYY where he will fail and will be forced to opt at seasons end which will lead him to sign a new contract elsewhere for less than 11 million a season.
Exactly. Izturis is more valuable to the 2006 Dodgers than what you can get for him in the trade market, unless a contender's SS goes down before August. 31. Keep him, then see what you can get in the offseason. And even then, be patient.
Izzy is basically Juan Castro or Royce Clayton. We wouldn't get a lot of value because he simply doesn't HAVE much value. It continues to amaze me how much most Dodger fans completely overrate this guy.
I would be waiting until the off-season as teams start building their '07 teams and can see penciling in Izzy as their everyday SS, and likewise the Dodgers can receive someone who helps them long-term. (The Orioles come to mind as a team that may need a SS next year.)
well, either way. Whether it's not or in the offseason I don't really care...all I know is his three mill could go to someone that could help a lot more.
Spare parts like Cruz Jr. (a good OF half-platoon) and even Saenz (DH platoon) are guys I'm looking to move now.
no way I move Saenz, too good of a hitter off the bench. But everyone else like Lofton and Cruz is fair game. I can't believe that there is no Saito talk. We could sell insanely high on this guy right now if we wanted to...too bad Ned probably doesn't see that. Lofton, Cruz, Ledee...just dump'em now and get a prospect in return.
Its not like he's every played on a playoff team before.
Sorry to hear about your dad, bluetahoe. I hope he is doing well and recuperating comfortably.
I thought I posted this once already. Not sure where it went.
The post was meant to address the gray area where people debate buying vs. selling. It was meant to address the debate, not the non-debate.
But again, my fault.
with all due respect, the fact that you're insinuating that Drew is responsible for the Dodger team for the last two years is utterly ridiculous.
In my mind, the point is not only for us to think long term, but also to catch the other guys thinking short term. Do you not think that there are GMs out there thinking that Lofton, Saito, Izturis, Lucille, Saenz, Sele (need I go on?) could help them this year?
I think what you must be saying is that unloading the likes of Jose Cruz is a good idea whether you're thinking long term or short term. However, there are guys performing well for us this year (Saito being at the top of the list, followed by Sele and others) who are more valuable, or perceived to be more valuable, to someone else that actually has a chance this year.
Remember when we traded Paul Konerko (and Denys Reyes, of coures) for Jeff Shaw? Just once, I want to see us on the other side of that deal.
But not trading a reliever that has been as dominant as Saito has, is like discovering oil and leaving it in the ground.
Just read no. 72 from last nights game thread. Thanks so much that was great!!! Really interesting and very helpful. I will have a lot to talk about and unless I screw it up, will seem like I know a little something. I don't know if I'll get an answer but is there a specific question you want the answer to? I'll be sure to give a full report.
I can't believe that there is no Saito talk
I agree with everything you said in your post except this, because i look at what we have for the pen next year and don't see much, i think we need saito for the pen next year.
Plus, like I mentioned before, if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers he could. He's on a 1yr deal.
Exactly. You might as well deal Saito while his value is sky high and if he doesn't come back, you just go out and find another Saito.
can someone tell me why Harold Reynolds was handed his walking papers?
Plus, like I mentioned before, if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers he could. He's on a 1yr deal.*
Are you sure he's on a 1 year deal?
Isn't he just like any rookie, under our control for 2 more non-arbitration years, then 3 arbitration years, and wouldn't that apply to the team he was traded to?
There will be more on this to come, but I wanted to break the news here that we've re-acquired Elmer Dessens in exchange for Odalis Perez, Single-A right-handers Blake Johnson and Julio Pimentel and cash considerations.
Given that I read all your comments each day, I'm assuming most of you will like this deal, but until I get the chance to write again, feel free to debate the pros and cons here. After all, that's what this blog is all about anyway, right?
Basically what we do is pull the old switcheroo on someone: We do to them what was done to us with Baez.
Saito is clearly better than Baez. But with relief pitching at such a high demand, we could probably get a legit prospect back for him.
Legit prospect for a 37 year old relief pitcher? Sign me up.
Someone else would know though.
71, Deadspin believes something to do with sexual harrassment.
Nate's going to be upset the Dodgers dealt Blake Johnson.
Now then, as others here have said, too, if another team is desperate for help in a particular area and the Dodgers have somebody on their current roster (who isn't a top prospect/future star) and make LA an offer involving a future Konerko type or someone who can in turn help them now without mortgaging the future, well then I'd think they'd consider it.
Personally, I'd rather see Saito stay because I still want to follow this team this year and can only imagine the bullpen without him (shudder) and think he can help next year as well. Broxton's going to be great but he's clearly not ready or yet savvy enough to assume the closer's role, imho.
everything is now okay with the world.
I want to know what "cash considerations" means. I'm assuming it's gotta mean almost his entire contract.
If Ned got them to pay, say, 2 mill of his salary for next year then well done. Two good trades in a row...maybe Flanders is getting it now...
.........................
Thanks for the concern. He's recovering and will be good as new in no time.
Pimentel isnt really a prospect anymore.
But I've heard Canuck and Nate both talk glowingly about Blake Johnson.
I didn't see the Johnson thing at first. If we threw him in with another prospect then they better pick up a decent portion.
If they're not paying almost any of it, then why not just DFA Perez?
Ridiculous!
What's next: cash and a couple prospects for Cody Ross?
DFA'ing seemed smarter, unless the Dodgers just really really wanted Elmer Dessens back.
Dessens is a good reliever, but eh I dont know. I'm sort of 'meh' about this deal, until I find out how much KC is paying.
He was hitting on Linda Cohn...
I think a team should not trade its most effective reliver (and/or closer) mid-season. It's one thing to play the kids, it's another to be simply "giving up." You want to be in a position to win close games every night of the year -- you have a responsibility to the other 24 players to keep a Saito around. I'm not saying it's the BEST decision for the talent pool, but I think it's the RIGHT one for your clubhouse's sake.
That is, if you believe in the C- word (chemistry) ...
Meanwhile, expect some sort of elaboration on Inside the Dodgers from Josh Rawitch or someone on the financial details of the trade. As I said, if the Royals are eating OPs salary, then I do understand the inclusion of minor leaguers - if not, then I don't.
I'm sad to see Odalis go, since he was at least good at some point, but Grady had fairly deservedly soured on him.
1) The cash considerations will be used to sign Luke Hochevar.
2) Odalis Perez will get along well with and thus corrupt Luke Hochevar.
Does this mean that Tomko is slated to head back into the rotation to replace Sele instead of middle relief?
don't you have a responsibility to put a winning team on the field? Saito's value is sky high right now...since when do you have to keep players around for the other 24 guys? That's ridiculous. This team isn't going anywhere so you cash in on what you have while you have it. Saito is 37 years old on a one year deal...his value will NEVER get higher than it is now. So, you ditch him.
Please someone tell me dessens is only signed thru this season, because he's way too expensive for his ability.
Dessens is no more better than carrara.
And i'm talking about the carrara we all know not the carrara that is on a somewhat hot streak right now.
What is dessens contract, anyone know?
I assume Carrara?
Any other guesses?
I'm assuming that since we threw in a good prospect they're covering a pretty big chunk of the contract. If they're not, then the trade makes even less sense than all of Flanders's's's's other ones.
Given this strategy, is he surprised by where his own team resides in the standings?
Then good, dessens doesn't handcuff us at all beyond this season.
But i'm still concerned with the cash considerations and blake johnson.
They better be picking up most his contract.
Ned is dumpster diving through the D-rays and Royals' leftovers.
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2004/12/kansas-city-royals_28.html
Flanders really scares me.
The Rockies were looking at getting him for 7th inning help.
We're going to disagree here. You you have a responsibility to put a winning team on the field every night, and you're not doing that if you trade your best reliever away. Especially when you're only 5.5 games out.
Saito is 37 years old on a one year deal...his value will NEVER get higher than it is now. So, you ditch him.
We'll agree here a little. If you overwhelm me with a pitcher I can use in return, I think about it. On the other hand, if he's already 37 and quite effective, one might project that he will be effective next year. Either way, the Dodgers control his contract as a rookie player.
That's ridiculous.
Karma is karma. Last time we traded away our best reliever it was Pedro Martinez ...
"The Lerner group has lobbied heavily against Miller's involvement, saying it fears his project is too ambitious to complete by the time the ballpark is scheduled to open in April 2008. The District's chief financial officer agrees. In private, the Lerner group refers to Miller's twin towers as 'Mothra' and 'Godzilla.'" http://tinyurl.com/qxgrg
Too funny.
Also, I really should have given you this link -- it's Tom Boswell's profile of Ted Lerner after the team was awarded. Very interesting read, describing how he worked as an usher at old Griffith Stadium, saw Babe Ruth play, and other stuff. http://tinyurl.com/hz8p6
I don't have any must-answer questions. The Lerners and Stan Katen get a lot of McCourt-type criticism (i.e., that this is just a busines deal and they lack real competitive fire/investment in the day to day struggle of the club). Your observations on that would be interesting.
Have fun.
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