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About Jon
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
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The Drive To Make Up Five ...
2006-08-01 09:25
by Jon Weisman

... begins tonight in Cincinnati with (cue announcer) Aaron-ron-ron-ron Sele-le-le-le.

Sele has been pounded on the road this year despite allowing only one home run. In five starts (plus a relief appearance) he has lasted 26 1/3 innings and allowed 51 baserunners and a .905 OPS. Kind of how I expected his entire season to go, but the ride has been more nuanced than that.

I had originally assumed that Greg Maddux would replace Sele in the rotation, but for the moment it's Chad Billingsley who becomes the even man out. Still, any of the following could happen in the coming hours and days:

1) The Dodgers cut loose one of their six outfielders and keep Billingsley on the roster as a 12th pitcher.

2) The Dodgers send down Billingsley to AAA Las Vegas for now and watch to see how Sele performs today before deciding whether to keep Billingsley down there until rosters expand in September.

3) The Dodgers commit right away to letting Billingsley have a final one-month tutorial in the minors before calling him up in September to stay - for a long, long time, hopefully.

4) Mark Hendrickson falls and can't get up.

I don't have any strong feelings about this. I want to see Billingsley pitch and learn before my eyes - he's second on the team in walks despite being eighth in innings - but it's just a few starts at most we're talking about. With all the hubbub behind us (until the next hubbub), I've cleared the palate.

Comments (256)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-08-01 09:44:11
1.   mankatododger
The last ESPN update has Brad Penny pitching tonight. Everything else has Sele. Does anyone know for sure? Thanks.
2006-08-01 09:45:30
2.   bhsportsguy
I heard Ned say this at least twice in post trade interviews that he looked forward to Greg Maddux being a strong influence on Chad Billingsley so I wonder if we will see another move, one sure sign would be if Penny were to be moved up in the rotation otherwise maybe Gio going back to Vegas and Sele moving out of the rotation with Maddux pitching on Thursday and Chad throwing on Friday.
2006-08-01 09:46:12
3.   bhsportsguy
1 Wow, if thats true, than Sele is odd man out, that should make some of us here happy.
2006-08-01 09:47:31
4.   gpellamjr
Usually I get irritated with the idea of paying players to teach the kids, but I hope Maddux does that with Billz and convinces him that it's okay to throw strikes.
2006-08-01 09:47:46
5.   mankatododger
I should be clear. I heard the update guy on ESPN radio say Penny v. Arroyo tonight. That is the only place I have heard or seen this.
2006-08-01 09:48:20
6.   DXMachina
Billingsley needs to work on things, so I don't have a problem with sending him down for a little while. He's got great stuff, but it's sort of liking watching Nuke Laloosh right now. (Although like 2, I was thinking Maddux could help mature the kid here.)

If it's a choice between Hendrickson and Sele, I'd rather see Hendrickson go, but that's more because Sele won me over with his early performances, and Hendrickson really hasn't done anything to impress me.

2006-08-01 09:49:24
7.   D4P
When a GM acquires a player (e.g. Alomar, Maddux, etc.) to "teach" the other players, what does that say about the quality of the coaching staff?
2006-08-01 09:50:43
8.   Jon Weisman
Interesting. Because of the two off days, Penny has already had five days off since his last start, so actually, he should pitch. Chad could then follow Wednesday on four days rest.
2006-08-01 09:50:47
9.   BlueCrew Bruin
I have to think Bills stays. He's had some pretty good starts mixed in with the typical rookie growing pains. I don't think he's hurting the team enough to warrant sending him back down. I hope they don't give him the Edwin Jackson treatment by repeadetly bringing him up and sending him down. Although Jackson did get pounded fairly regularly after his outstanding debut (if memory serves).
2006-08-01 09:54:34
10.   bhsportsguy
As I recall, the worse waiver claim period deal was when the Padres claimed Randy Myers because they did not want the Braves to get him, not only did Myers' team not revoke the waivers, the Padres got stuck with a multiyear contract that burned them for a couple of years.
2006-08-01 09:54:50
11.   Xeifrank
7. Not sure it says anything negative about the coaching staff, but I'm pretty sure it says something good about the vet(s).
vr, Xei
2006-08-01 09:55:32
12.   bhsportsguy
8 Jon, in comparison to 2 years ago, how was the tone of the posts during this year's trade deadline?
2006-08-01 09:55:38
13.   StolenMonkey86
I see Sele might regress again in the second half, but I'm still gonna have to go with Dave Stewart on this one.

I'm not a big Mark Hendrickson fan. Maybe he should go back to basketball with one of those 20-day deals or something. Whenever he's pitching I'm betting on the other guy, even if it's my 6-year-old daughter.

Mean Game Score in Dodger Starts:

Lowe (23 Dodger starts): 48.5
Penny (21 Dodger starts): 52.8
Sele (13 Dodger Starts): 50.3
Hendrickson (6 Dodger Starts): 42.5
Billingsley (9 Dodger Starts): 46.8

2006-08-01 09:56:16
14.   gpellamjr
7 I don't think it says anything really about the coaching staff. I think it says that the GM was unable to acquire any players capable of justifying their acquisition on their playing merits.
2006-08-01 09:56:19
15.   bhsportsguy
BTW my new tradition is to buy a toasted sub sandwich at either Subway or Quiznos instead of a Dodger Dog, I'm 2-2 with the sandwiches.
2006-08-01 09:56:24
16.   Bluebleeder87
and Hendrickson really hasn't done anything to impress me.

He won his last start, I'm thinking it's more Gio going to vegas & either Sele or Hendrickson to the pen.JMO.

2006-08-01 09:56:37
17.   MartinBillingsley31
I still can't believe ned traded guzman for a middle infielder rental.
The Guzman trade is going to bite this franchise in the you know what.

Anyone know how much money the team has commited to next year and details of that money?
I've lost track.

2006-08-01 10:01:14
18.   gpellamjr
It will bother me when Kent comes back if Lugo moves to 3rd with Betemit becoming a "utility" man. The idea that Lofton would play over Betemit makes me physically angry. Can Lugo play CF? I guess the possibility of Drew playing CF is gone?
2006-08-01 10:01:30
19.   Faramond
The lead story on is about how Sele opens the Reds series for the Dodgers, but that story was filed on 30 July, which makes it rather out of date given more recent events.

I still think Bills will stay and Sele is out. Why skip Sele last week only to turn around and keep Sele over Bills in the rotation?

2006-08-01 10:01:43
20.   bhsportsguy
14 I thought that the comments regarding Maddux's presence in the clubhouse came from answering questions asking what Maddux brings to the team.

I think if you look back in any sport when they acquire a player of Maddux's stature, it is inevitable that what intangibles that player brings to your team will come up.

That said, if I was Chad Billingsley, Broxton, etc. I would certainly not mind talking baseball and pitching with a guy who has to pitch to win everyone of his games.

2006-08-01 10:02:55
21.   bhsportsguy
16 The team won, Hendrickson didn't get the win, though they certainly could have scored some runs early in that game.
2006-08-01 10:04:38
22.   DXMachina
16 - No he didn't. He came out of the game down 3-2. Broxton got the win.
2006-08-01 10:06:12
23.   Bob Timmermann
The online sports book I checked had Sele listed as the starter. If there were confusion, I would think the game would have been taken off the board.

I trust America's gambling community! After all, the Dodgers are in Cincinnati!

2006-08-01 10:06:39
24.   D4P
Quixotic Battle #32: Eliminate the "win" and "loss" statistics for pitchers.
2006-08-01 10:08:05
25.   Disabled List
There's a fantastic article at Armchair GM that goes in depth about the economics of the trade market, and how teams have realized that walk-year players are much more valuable than previously thought because of the draft-pick compensation.

It illuminates some of the reasons why Soriano was not dealt, and why Ned had to cough up a highly-regarded prospect to get such a middling player like Lugo.

2006-08-01 10:11:12
26.   dzzrtRatt
In the last thread Andrew Shimmin asked whether anyone likes the Lugo trade, as opposed to not-liking-the-arguments-of-the-people-who-hate-the-Lugo-trade.

The answer to that question for me depends on what the real unvarnished truth is about the health of Kent and Nomar. Which the Dodgers will never tell us.

Colletti has already denied speculation that this deal was made b/c one of them is going to be out longer. But I don't 100 percent believe him.

In any case, I understand the deal better than I like it. Whoever said on the last thread that Colletti should have been able to talk Friedman down to Delwyn Young, I agree with that.

Guzman is a trouble child, but up til this summer, there was a consensus on his talent. Ned & Logan apparently think Guzman's personality will stand in the way, and his rankings on all the prospect lists will drop as he fails to develop. It was way too early to conclude that in my opinion.

By the way, here's one meme growing here I'm not buying into: Friedman = Beane. That is big-time spin. When TB wins their division, or even finishes ahead of Boston, NY or Toronto, I'll bow down to Friedman's genius. All of the high-ranked prospects the Rays now control were selected before he got there.

2006-08-01 10:11:28
27.   Blue Crew
This coming from an avid reader of this site, but a rare poster. The info that the posters were adding to this site just before and after the trading deadline was great. To me it showed how much knowledge the members of this site have. The posts here are great to read. Jon does a great job running this site. His daily stories talk of a man who is not only a Dodgers fan, but a true baseball fan.

OK, enough kissing up.

I think Chad stays in the rotation. As others have said, he could use some work back in AAA, but watching him mature as a pitcher is something I want to witness. In addition, who better to learn from than Maddux. Hendrickson has not impressed me at all. However, I would have given him at least a 9 on his dismount the other night.


2006-08-01 10:12:10
28.   Bob Timmermann

I wish you well. When you become my age, your quixotic battles will hit triple figures.

2006-08-01 10:14:08
29.   Faramond


Stupid gamblers.

But that's right, if Sele really wasn't the starter the sports books would know about it.

I guess Bills really is getting demoted, whether to AAA or the pen. Silly, really.

2006-08-01 10:15:06
30.   blue22
17 - Anyone know how much money the team has commited to next year and details of that money?

I think that minus Izturis' salary, it's at about $80-$83M, and that's without resigning Nomar and buying out Gagne.

DodgerMath has a breakdown I believe.

2006-08-01 10:16:06
31.   Rob M
I wonder what kind of pitching Guzman/Pedroza could have bought? Was there anything out there? McCarthy maybe, or am I dreaming?
2006-08-01 10:17:04
32.   gpellamjr
20 I agree with you completely. I think that an experienced pitcher really can help our Killer Bs. And I think young pitchers would listen to Maddux, and Maddux would probably have more to offer than most experienced pitchers, especially the vets on this team. However, I don't think a vet's wisdom is ever justification for an acquisition. I think it's an excuse.
2006-08-01 10:18:26
33.   bhsportsguy
Rough count is 51 million, not counting how that Odalis deal comes out.

Here are the players under contract next year, not counting those who are under the Dodgers' control, e.g. rookies and arbitration eligible, Hendrickson, Hall, etc.

Cruz, Jr. (Counting on the Dodgers paying 300,000 buy out)

2006-08-01 10:21:52
34.   blue22
33 - Drew?
2006-08-01 10:23:07
35.   bhsportsguy
33 I am not counting J.D. Drew since he holds the option, I forget to add Gagne's buyout but my number was an approximation so it is still around 51-52 million.

Next year the Dodgers could have 9-11 players with under 2 years of service time.

2006-08-01 10:25:16
36.   blue22
35 - Not current with the Izturis trade, but here's DodgerMath's breakdown:

2006-08-01 10:29:54
37.   bhsportsguy
36 Drew is out of the Dodgers' control but I can't see the Dodgers picking up Gagne and Cruz's options.
2006-08-01 10:30:09
38.   Vaudeville Villain

I understand what you're saying, but I find it highly illuminating that nobody will come out and say, "I like this trade." Besides sports writer hacks. And even some of them don't like it.

2006-08-01 10:33:07
39.   Bluebleeder87
21 The team won, Hendrickson didn't get the win, though they certainly could have scored some runs early in that game.

well he kept us in the game, I don't know Sele's history in the strench run the last couple of years makes me questioned him starting even today.

2006-08-01 10:36:08
40.   blue22
37 - I can't see the Dodgers picking up Gagne and Cruz's options.

There's a range posted there ($83.5M - $98.8M). The $83.5M is buying out both options, the $98.8M is exercising them both.

$83.5M - $4.1M (Izturis) = ~$79M committed to next year.

2006-08-01 10:41:02
41.   gpellamjr
40 So, what holes need to be filled for next year? How much are those holes going to cost to be filled? And how much will McCourt allow to be spent?
2006-08-01 10:44:42
42.   blue22
41 - First base, outfield, starting pitcher?

I bet he gets ~$20M to fill them.

2006-08-01 10:47:10
43.   D4P
Ironically, shortstop may be a hole that needs to be filled.
2006-08-01 10:52:13
44.   thinkingblue
The LA times says that Maddux will bump Sele.
2006-08-01 10:54:14
45.   Bluebleeder87
we need pitching (Zito/Schmidt) hopefully Kent is healthy he's good for 25-30 HRuns & Drew is good for 27-35 dingers. Kemp will be my sleeper with 20-28 dingers.JMO.
2006-08-01 10:55:17
46.   Bluebleeder87
The LA times says that Maddux will bump Sele.

Today or in the rotation?

2006-08-01 10:55:53
47.   thinkingblue
As for the Lugo trade, questions:

1) Where will he play when Kent comes back?

2) Where does this leave Betemit?

3) Can we stop trading with TB now?

2006-08-01 11:00:47
48.   blue22
1. Bench, if everyone is healthy. Otherwise he backs up Kent at 2B, Nomar at 1B (w/ Kent sliding over to 1B), and Furcal at SS.

2. The starter at 3B, assuming he hits.

3. You don't want to try to get any of their good players? They have some.

2006-08-01 11:00:53
49.   tjshere

I just don't see that many holes next year other than pitching. The outfield seems pretty well covered with Drew, Kemp, Ethier, Repko and Loney.

In the infield you have Nomar - or Loney if Nomar leaves, Kent - or Betemit if Kent leaves, Raffy and LaRoche/Betemit. We already have Olmedo inked through next season, so just one more back-up middle-infielder should do. Possibly even Ramon Martinez since he's done well.

Martin, obviously, is the catcher, but we will need a new back-up there.

Seems to me all we need is a few small pieces on the bench and we can spend the rest on lots of new, quality arms in the rotation and `pen.

2006-08-01 11:00:57
50.   dzzrtRatt
25 That Armchair GM piece certainly puts a more positive spin on the Lugo deal, conceptually. It doesn't absolve Colletti of overpaying for Lugo, but it certainly seems like Logan White was whispering in his ear to go for it. It also explains why the seeming non-sequiter that Guzman "didn't have a position" was part of the logic of the trade.

A more on-point statement would have been: "In the short run, we have no place to put Guzman. All his positions are taken by better prospects, and we can't keep him in AAA as insurance. So he has to go."

Essentially what the Dodgers have done is put Guzman in a time machine. When Lugo leaves this fall, we get two draft picks. They will be behind Guzman in development, probably, but that's okay, b/c we don't need them to be ready now. We need Guzman's equivalent later, say when Drew or Furcal are finally off the books, or to restock the pitching staff.

From reading the article, it's clear that teams with pending type A FAs to trade should demand high prices. Letting a FA go is giving up a lot. The logic that "we'll get nothing for him!" is limited to dull-normal sportswriters. Bowden was right to hang onto Soriano unless the offer back was the equivalent of Howie Kendrick plus somebody else good. Likewise with Zito.

Tampa Bay needs to put together a real major league team on the cheap, and soon. So they would value Guzman more than we did, and value Lugo equalling two picks less.

The linked article explains that initially, only Billy Beane understood this market dynamic and could exploit it to help the A's win now and win later. But this trade-deadline shows he's got company now. To paraphrase Richard Nixon: We are all Beanesians now. Perhaps including Colletti.

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2006-08-01 11:02:02
51.   StolenMonkey86
What's a better year to go after a FA starter, this year or next year?

This year: Zito, Schmidt, Pettite, Maddux, Buehrle

Next year: C Zambrano*, Oswalt, Carpenter, Colon, L Hernandez

Zambrano fired Scott Boras

2006-08-01 11:03:00
52.   thinkingblue

It didn't say, all it said was:

Maddux, 40, figures to bump Aaron Sele from the dodgers starting rotation.

2006-08-01 11:05:59
53.   D4P
When Lugo leaves this fall, we get two draft picks.

This assumes (1) we offer Lugo arbitration, and (2) he declines, right?

2006-08-01 11:09:14
54.   blue22
I'd get a one-year deal for Maddux, to make the Opening Day rotation:

Penny, Lowe, Billingsley, Maddux, Hendrickson.

Tomko stays in the pen. Elbert, Kuo, and Broxton (?) would be in the minors waiting to take a spot come mid-year.

I'd also pass on Nomar, giving 1B to Loney/Saenz, and sign an outfielder (Jim Edmonds a free agent?). The outfield would be Drew/Edmonds/Ethier/Kemp/Repko.

2006-08-01 11:11:22
55.   MartinBillingsley31

Thank you for the link.

Dodger math has got mueller at 5.25 million, but i've got him at 4.5 million.
Dodger math has us still paying perez 6.975 million, god i thought we trimmed that more than that.
Dodger math still has izturis, but we dumped all of that.
Dodger math has us offering hendrickson arbitration, ned would be an idiot to keep hendrickson.
Dodger math has "remaining players" value and that could differ.
I'll take dodger math estimate of betemit arbitration of 1.5 million.

And here is what i've got:

Furcal 13 m
Kent 11.5 m
Drew 11 m
Lowe 9.5 m
Penny 8 m
Mueller 4.5 m (maybe insurance)
Tomko 4.1 m
Saenz 1 m
Cruz .3 m buyout
Gagne 1 m buyout
Betemit 1.5 m

Total 65.4 m

Then the perez/dessens factor (?) dodger math has 6.975 m

If you add perez/dessens to my total you get 72.375 million (but maybe some insurance for mueller).

Total 9 guys on the roster.

Then 9 rookies/2nd year/3rd year guys (martin, ethier, kemp, loney, laroche, repko, billingsley, broxton, saito) at 400,000 each on average = 3.6 million

72.4 (first 9 guys) + 3.6 (second 9 guys) = 76 million with 7 spots open (2 starting pitchers, 3 bullpen, 2 bench, 1 being a backup catcher)

Assume zito and schmidt each cost 12.5 m per year = 25 m on top of 76 m = 101 million with 3 bullpen and 2 bench spots to fill.

We have enough money for both zito and schmidt if ned doesn't offer arbitration to hendrickson, dooesn't sign any guys due for free agency including nomar.

I'm off the nomar re-signing bandwaggon, the guy just can't stay healthy, give loney 1b next year.

2006-08-01 11:11:55
56.   blue22
54 Elbert, Kuo, and Broxton (?) would be in the minors waiting to take a spot... the rotation.

2006-08-01 11:12:16
57.   Disabled List
50 All true. However, it is still gonna be very painful for Dodger fans if/when Guzman blossoms into a star player for Tampa, and Lugo is just a distant memory. No matter what logic, rationale, or spin currently exists behind this trade, the potnetial downside is still enormous. Yes, we'll have to factor in the two extra prospects we get, but in order for us to break even, at least one of the will have to develop to the point where Guzman is now, and that's always an iffy proposition. And of course, the better Guzman does, the higher the break-even point.
2006-08-01 11:13:20
58.   blue22
55 - You're really deluding yourself by leaving Drew off.
2006-08-01 11:16:04
59.   blue22
58 - Oops he's there, sorry. How are your figures so far off (by like $8M)?
2006-08-01 11:16:51
60.   dzzrtRatt
53 Yep. And here's another interesting thing. Given the increasing value accorded draft picks, what happens if we offer Lugo arbitration, he declines, but then no one signs him because he's not good enough to balance out the lost picks?

I think this dynamic is why it took Jeff Weaver and Bengie Molina so long to find teams. And I bet both teams really regret having signed them.

I foresee this issue becoming a bone of contention leading to a possible strike one of these days. No more effective brake on free agency-related salary escalation has yet been found. To give up two picks for Vlad Guerrero is one thing. To give them up for Jeff Weaver?

2006-08-01 11:19:04
61.   regfairfield
55 Mueller's contract: he receives a 750K signing bonus that is paid on Janaury 15th, 2008- + he receives salaries of 4.25M in 2006 and 4.5M in 2007. I applied the signing bonus to the 2007 season.

For OP, I paid off all of this year, paid his full signing bonus, then applied the buyout to 2008. Whatever was left went to 2007.

I'll update Izturis shortly.

2006-08-01 11:19:49
62.   blue22
60 - Do the teams really forfeit two picks? I thought they lose their first rounder (top 15 protected?), but the other is a sandwich pick (not the original property of the signing team).
2006-08-01 11:20:15
63.   Sam DC
Well, it's more than a time machine for Guzman/the picks, because Guzman also basically has panned out so far. So it's a good luck time machine.

Meanwhile, from the Sheinin chat I linked earlier:

Bethesda, Md.: Hi, Dave. Like your stuff. Keep up the good work.

One question, though. What's with the use of the word "onomatopoetic" in the paper yesterday -- in the sports section, of all places?

Do you own stock in Random House or American Heritage?

Dave Sheinin: Thanks, Bethesda. As for "onomatopoetic," well, I was an English major, after all.

It's not just us!

2006-08-01 11:20:22
64.   regfairfield
58 He cut Izturis and Hendrickson.
2006-08-01 11:22:49
65.   Blu2
49 The Dodgers, who have since thrown money around as if it were worthless, refused to sign Pau Bako for $700K, instead choosing Alomar JR to save $50K. Bako was injured last year but his past numbers indicate he would be a better choice than Alomar JR. Never understand their reasoning, missing the player they wanted for a mere $50K but blowing millions later on worse players...
2006-08-01 11:22:55
66.   MartinBillingsley31

How are your figures so far off (by like $8M)?

Do you mean from dodgermath?

If so, he's got izturis contract (4.15 m) still there and he has ned offering hendrickson arbitration and getting 3 million, and i would let hendrickson walk, plus he has mueller at .75 m higher than me, Total 7.9 million difference.
I get my figures from this site.

2006-08-01 11:23:15
67.   Johnson
I think the thing that really gets me about the Lugo trade is how amazingly thin it makes our minor league outfield outlook. With Ruggiano already gone, and Guzman and Pedroza now out the door, we seem to have almost nothing in the way of minor league outfielders in our system. (Kemp doesn't count because I assume he'll be up for good come September.) All I can really see down there is Raglani, who hasn't put up good numbers in Jax (.725 OPS) in his age-23 season, and X. Paul who has an .817 OPS in his second tour of Vero at age 21, but has an 85/28 K/BB ratio. Is there anybody else out there at all?

On an unrelated note, still has Sele as the probable tonight.

2006-08-01 11:27:54
70.   Blu2
55 Dodger math has us offering hendrickson arbitration, ned would be an idiot to keep hendrickson.
Guess that means we'll keep him.
2006-08-01 11:29:11
71.   Marty
Tony Jackson says making deadline moves by definition makes you a contender.
2006-08-01 11:31:37
72.   heato
Preston Mattingly will take a few years to develop, but what are the chances he becomes an outfielder?
2006-08-01 11:33:40
73.   Bluebleeder87
Preston Mattingly will take a few years to develop, but what are the chances he becomes an outfielder?

I hear he has a great arm (right field) I hope he developes the pop his old man had.

2006-08-01 11:34:25
75.   Marty
And Modesti says Maddox will be the greatest player to ever wear an L.A. Dodger uniform.
2006-08-01 11:34:41
76.   Bluebleeder87
Is not Loney an outfielder now?

No pop, he's simply better suited for 1st base.IMO.

2006-08-01 11:35:12
77.   regfairfield
71 Let's go Roy-als.
2006-08-01 11:36:32
78.   3upn3down
Would you agree that our base lineup if we ever get healthy will be as follows?


That really would be something to look forward to. I can see several 3 run rallies coming from this group given the depth.

2006-08-01 11:37:22
79.   SCRocks
55. How many years are we willing to offer 12.5 M to a 34 y/o pitcher in Jason Schmidt?

It would seem to take probably 3 most likely 4 years to secure his services.

I love Schmidt but isn't this the type of FA signing we are trying to get away from (a guy past his prime who will be 38 when the deal is done)?


2006-08-01 11:39:30
81.   MartinBillingsley31

Guess that means we'll keep him.


Zambrano in 2008 intereests me as well as oswalt.

So if 2007 includes zito, schmidt, penny, lowe, billingsley.
And then after 2007 kent comes off the books to buy zambrano or oswalt, we could move lowe to the pen where he has been before in his career.
Then after 2008 furcal and lowe come off the books to give contracts to some in-house free agents plus elbert emerging, but i'm getting ahead of myself.

Bottom line tho, ned should stay away from position player pricy free agents because i believe we have enough coming up from the minors, but you can't say that about pitching.

2006-08-01 11:39:41
82.   SMY
Why is it that we can only have one good prospect at a position? What if Ethier goes all Jayson Werth on us? I can understand it if you've got an older prospect coming up on his peak, but we're talking about a 21 year old kid. I don't see why he can't stay in AAA for at least one more season. Surely it's not worth two months of fluky Julio Lugo.
2006-08-01 11:41:22
83.   Jacob L
Aaronronron Selelele should have been tradededed.
2006-08-01 11:42:50
84.   D4P
I love Schmidt but isn't this the type of FA signing we are trying to get away from (a guy past his prime who will be 38 when the deal is done)?

Only if "we" does not include Ned.

2006-08-01 11:44:21
85.   MartinBillingsley31
*How many years are we willing to offer 12.5 M to a 34 y/o pitcher in Jason Schmidt?

It would seem to take probably 3 most likely 4 years to secure his services.

I love Schmidt but isn't this the type of FA signing we are trying to get away from (a guy past his prime who will be 38 when the deal is done)?*

I'd only get schmidt if we can get him for 3 years with an option for the 4th.
I should have explained that in my earlier post.
With ned being with schmidt in the past, it could happen, if not oh well, zamrano and oswalt if available after 2007.

2006-08-01 11:45:54
87.   Bob Timmermann
And Modesti says Maddox will be the greatest player to ever wear an L.A. Dodger uniform.

Maddox is going to have a pretty impressive career record, although his Dodgers career won't be all that great.

But his overall competition for career greatness would likely be:
Zack Wheat
Sandy Koufax
Duke Snider
Roy Campanella
Don Sutton

I think Maddux will be regarded as a greater player than any of those five.

2006-08-01 11:47:12
88.   FirstMohican
81 - Did Steinbrenner just buy the Dodgers or something?
2006-08-01 11:47:33
89.   Linkmeister
Why are some of us making an assumption that Lugo can/would play CF?

87 Bob! You forgot Babe Herman!

2006-08-01 11:47:48
90.   regfairfield
86 He's 21.
2006-08-01 11:48:02
91.   Bluebleeder87
79*55. How many years are we willing to offer 12.5 M to a 34 y/o pitcher in Jason Schmidt?*

I'd give him a 2 year deal.

Zito has Boras, & Boras & G.M's Don't mix.JMO.

2006-08-01 11:49:10
92.   D4P
How does Piazza fit in? Surely, he's the best hitting catcher of all-time, right? Is that enough to make him "great," despite his poor defensive skills?
2006-08-01 11:49:23
93.   Bob Timmermann
I did not forget Babe Herman.

I did leave out Mike Piazza.

2006-08-01 11:51:12
95.   King of the Hobos
If Ned can sign Schmidt to a properly frontloaded contract, I wouldn't mind him. Paying him $8M when he's 38 would be a lot easier than paying him $15M that year. Zito has Boras, which scares me, and probably Ned as well. Matsuzaka might be nicer, but would require a lot of money in posting and signing, and he's an uncertainty in the US. After that, it becomes a market of Mulder, Pettitte, and many Brett Tomkos. If the Yankees, Red Sox, and the like make things difficult, I wouldn't be against a Delwyn/Boof swap, or something of that nature to procure a 5th starter.
2006-08-01 11:52:33
96.   King of the Hobos
89 He's played all 3 OF positions in the past (albeit barely), plus he's athletic, fast, and has a good arm. The biggest problem would be him agreeing to play CF.
2006-08-01 11:53:22
97.   Sam DC
I can't believe it's fallen to me to point out that Bob has omitted Matt Kemp.

And more from Sheinin:

Buffalo, N.Y.: I understand the mechanics of the waiver trades but it begs the question, what is the point of a trading deadline?

Dave Sheinin: The point of the trade deadline is for everyone to get all worked up for no apparent reason.

2006-08-01 11:54:38
98.   D4P
Today has been a rough day for emboldinating.
2006-08-01 11:54:52
99.   SMY
86 So he complained a little bit. How many 21 year olds aren't a little immature? It's not like it was Operation Shutdown. That's something you help a guy work through, not immediately use as the kiss of death.

And it still doesn't make the return OK.

2006-08-01 11:54:52
100.   Sam DC
OK, last one b/c it actually relates to the Dodgers, and you should all go over there to and read the rest of his funny, thoughtful chat.

20009: Do the Reds get the wild card almost by default? The NL looks like Pete Rozelle's dream of "parity" - mediocrity across the Board.

Dave Sheinin: I think the Reds are going to have a fight on their hands from somebody -- it's just a question of who. There are eight teams within six games of the Reds in the wild-card standings. I think the Dodgers, to name one, are dangerous after the deadline deals they made.

Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2006-08-01 11:56:05
101.   underdog
Are we talking about Lester Maddox or Gary Maddox? I'm confused.

Or did we mean new pitcher Greg Maddux? ;-)

Meanwhile, I predict we go after Zito but not Schmidt. And certainly not both. Some effort may be made to resign Maddux, depending on how he looks in these last two months. A rotation of Penny, Maddux, Zito, Billingsley and (sigh) Lowe could be pretty good.

2006-08-01 11:57:05
102.   Andrew Shimmin
I like it that we're already spending the Lugo draft picks on over-paying Schmidt for the rest of his life. That didn't take long.
2006-08-01 11:58:39
103.   Gold Star for Robot Boy
FWIW, Juan Marichal's stats with the Dodgers in 1975:
2 games (both starts), 6 IP, 11 hits and 5 walks (2 HR) against 1 strtikeout, a nasty ERA of 13.50 (ERA+ of 25).
He was 37 that season.
2006-08-01 11:59:45
104.   Steve
We're dangerous, in a John Hinckley Jr. sort of way.
2006-08-01 11:59:52
105.   Bluebleeder87
Matsuzaka might be nicer

yeah, but he too has Boras, I wouldn't mind giving him a 3-4 year deal, he's still young right?

2006-08-01 12:02:23
106.   bhsportsguy
I would not be surprised if Kuo goes to Arizona Fall League as a starter. I see a lot of comparisons to Kuo and Juan Cruz.
2006-08-01 12:03:23
107.   Rob M
87 He did say L.A. Dodger, which forgive you for forgetting Jackie Robinson, and also eliminates Campy and Wheat.
2006-08-01 12:04:38
108.   D4P
Regarding draft picks for Lugo: I will chuckle if Flanders fails to offer him arbitration (a la Elmer Dessens).
2006-08-01 12:05:34
109.   Bob Timmermann

Jackie Robinson is sui generis.

2006-08-01 12:06:57
110.   Rob M
For total career greatness, Maddux is probably a top 5 RH pitcher, along with Clemens, Walter Johnson, Seaver, and Matthewson.
2006-08-01 12:07:46
111.   Marty
87 I figured most people would actually agree with it, just thought it made for a good conversation. I can't bring myself to pick against Koufax even though his overall numbers are not like Maddux'.
2006-08-01 12:08:09
112.   regfairfield
110 You've got to put Pedro Martinez on that list.
2006-08-01 12:09:19
113.   Rob M
109 Sui generis and short-careered. Perhaps Koufax/DiMaggio like in terms of greatness vs. longevity.
2006-08-01 12:10:12
114.   Rob M
112 He's about next - not sure who he'd dislodge from the top 5. I have him at 6.
2006-08-01 12:10:39
115.   Eric L
87 Bob.. you forgot your favorite guy...

If we are just talking about guys who played for the Dodgers (even if for a short time), I would have to say that the best player to ever wear a Dodger uniform was Frank Robinson.

2006-08-01 12:10:52
116.   Sam DC
yugo. ha ha.

meanwhile, the rare " x' " from Marty.

2006-08-01 12:11:58
117.   savetheblues
Matsuzaka is in his mid 20's, I believe, and would be a much better option than Schmidt... if any of you have had the pleasure of watching him pitch. Yes it's hard to project from Japan, but it's similar to considering a minor league to majors shift. If a player has the stuff(which he does, mid 90's fastball, command of 4 pitches, plus breaking ball, maybe even the fabeled gyro) the transition is a lot easier to predict. He could even be better than Zito, who should age well because he's not gonna lose much off an already slow fastball, but who already is a bit overrated. I think. If Matsuzaka is cheaper(which he undoubtedly will be) he'd probably be the better choice, no?
2006-08-01 12:12:17
118.   Bob Timmermann
I didn't forget him...
2006-08-01 12:12:43
119.   Rob M
Pedro could get in the top 5 with a few more good years. I suppose Seaver is the one he might displace, or Matthewson if you have to dump the dead-baller.
2006-08-01 12:13:00
120.   Eric L
118 I figured as much!
2006-08-01 12:13:52
121.   Gagne55
110 Lefty Grove says 'hi'.

Anyway, I missed the first 100 posts and don't want to go back to read them. All I have to say is that Billingsley has gotten by on smoke and mirrors thus far. He'll might be a really good pitcher some day, but now, I'd rather have him in AAA. His controll needs work.

2006-08-01 12:15:09
122.   Rob M
121 Unless the nickname is ironic, he doesn't qualify.
2006-08-01 12:19:59
123.   Bluebleeder87

I totally agree with you there, I hope Ned/Flanders gets the deal done, I wouldn't mind Zito either.

2006-08-01 12:21:31
124.   regfairfield
114 I honestly believe that Pedro Martinez is the best right handed pitcher ever, and that his name should enter the discussion for second best player ever.

No one has ever been as dominant as Pedro at any time. In the most vicious hitting era ever, he was dropping two ERAs, giving him the highest career ERA+ by 18. This is completely absurd, he's 27% higher above average than the second best pitcher in this category.

Look at the ERA+s from Koufax's best five year stretch where he was unhittable: 142,161,187,160,190. Now compare that to Pedro's best five year run: 248, 285, 189, 196, 212. This leaves out a year where he put up a 221 ERA+. No pitcher has ever come close to that level of dominance over a 5 year stretch, and that has to be acknowledged, despite Pedro's relative youth.

2006-08-01 12:22:01
125.   dzzrtRatt
I know his career was short, but Koufax is, to me, the greatest Dodger. His dominance of the game of baseball was Ruthian. There are lots of great players and a few have been Dodgers, but only a few players play so well it seems like everyone else is in a lesser league. Koufax was one of those. He had six great years, and delivered NL championships (one tie) in four of them -- and this is when you could not win an NL championship by any sort of playoff flukery. Some of the great players cited in comparison with him might have won that many pennants, but over a much longer span of time. And it's worth recalling that the teams Koufax pitched for were...okay. Drysdale, Wills, the Davis' were all great. But without Koufax, they were maybe a third or fourth-place team. He was the difference-maker.
2006-08-01 12:23:30
126.   StolenMonkey86
81- So in 2008 you have a projected rotation of

Oswalt, zito, schmidt, penny, billingsley

with Lowe in the 'pen. Realistically, if you did that, Lowe would demand a trade because he wouldn't want to be demoted to middle reliever in a contract year.

Not only that, but you would be blocking Kuo (27 in 2008), Elbert (23), Orenduff (25). Also, would Alexander and Miller stay in the pen?

With Hendrickson non-tendered, expect one free agent pitcher to be signed (possibly Maddux to save on draft picks, and because it'd be a 1 year gig). Zambrano would be the best signing because he would be by far the youngest free agent starter, so we would be getting someone still reasonably young. But I think Kuo could legitimately be the 5th starter next year.



And either cancel the Zambrano signing or trade Lowe in 08 to bring up one of Elbert or Orenduff, or they might beat out Kuo.

2006-08-01 12:26:40
127.   Bluebleeder87
I have nothing to contribute to this discotion, but I'm enjoying reading all of you're comments. :o)
2006-08-01 12:26:55
128.   thinkblue0
well he kept us in the game, I don't know Sele's history in the strench run the last couple of years makes me questioned him starting even today.

What's with all the excuses for Hendrickson, bluebleeder? The guy is simply not a good pitcher.

we need pitching (Zito/Schmidt) hopefully Kent is healthy he's good for 25-30 HRuns & Drew is good for 27-35 dingers. Kemp will be my sleeper with 20-28 dingers.JMO.

If we want Zito and Schmidt we need to hope Kent retires so his money can be used elsewhere. 35 HR from Drew is completely unreasonable.

2006-08-01 12:29:15
129.   blue22
I'd stay away from high-priced starters altogether. I'm trying to think of any starters recently that have signed a medium- to high-value, long-term deal that ended up being a relative success or bargain.

The best way to get starting pitching is to either develop it, or trade for it.

2006-08-01 12:29:41
130.   Bob Timmermann
So Greg Maddux isn't going to win the DHL Hometown Hero election for the Dodgers?
2006-08-01 12:31:06
131.   savetheblues
I agree with that, 100%, with maddux a close second. The thing with Clemens is that his peak was not quite as good as Pedro's, Maddux's, or even RJ's and his 1997 season was extremely suspicious(just look at the numbers). But that's just my opinion, most people are value over career and I'm more inclined to value a peak period in determining who was the absolute best. His Yankee years were also average, at best, and his laziness his last year's with the sox was embarassing.
2006-08-01 12:32:10
132.   Steve
With Hendrickson non-tendered

We ask for so little, and yet we receive even less.

2006-08-01 12:33:19
133.   Rob M
Greg Maddux best 5 year run for ERA+

Not all that far off of Pedro's run. Add to that that Maddux did it longer.

For the record I love Pedro - easily my favorite player of this generation. I've loved watching him play. OK - he makes the list, you've convinced me.

2006-08-01 12:35:10
134.   Eric L
His Yankee years were also average, at best, and his laziness his last year's with the sox was embarassing.

I don't get how people always say that. He put up an ERA+ of 142 and pitched 243 innings his last season with the Sox. People tend to look at his 10-13 record and say he somehow was lazy or didn't pitch well that year.

2006-08-01 12:35:52
135.   SCRocks


I don't think even both Zito and Schmidt would turn the Dodgers into a World series contender in '07.


2006-08-01 12:37:03
136.   Bluebleeder87
127 What's with all the excuses for Hendrickson, bluebleeder? The guy is simply not a good pitcher.

yeah, I'm wondering what there ERA looks like after the all-star break.

2006-08-01 12:38:04
137.   thinkblue0
The best way to get starting pitching is to either develop it, or trade for it.

Huh? That's the worst way to get pitching.

The vast majority of pitchers don't pan out, not to mention teams simply don't trade dominant starters.

The only way to get a guy like Jason Schmidt is to actually go out and sign him. No one is going to trade us a pitcher of his caliber, and we sure as heck aren't having any Jason Schmidt's come out of the farm system any time soon....

2006-08-01 12:42:09
138.   Steve
I'll take Roger Clemens as best pitcher ever, by the way.
2006-08-01 12:43:20
139.   Greg Brock
124 Walter Johnson does not agree with you.
2006-08-01 12:43:52
140.   MartinBillingsley31
Huh? That's the worst way to get pitching.

I agree.

The very worse way to get starting pitching is to trade for it because it will take a kings ransom to get it, then you gotta fill all the holes you create by trading position player prospects by signing the lofton's of the world or overpaying for a carlos lee when in the current dodger situation we have plenty of position player prospects

I do believe in developing starting pitching but all i see is billingsley and then elbert in 2008 if not 2009, then what kershaw, but that's all far away.

Anyone thinking kuo, broxton, alexander, orenduff in the rotation is dreaming, there all pen guys.

2006-08-01 12:44:00
141.   Marty
What do Carlton's overall numbers look like?
2006-08-01 12:47:43
142.   Bob Timmermann

Most of Carlton's numbers are between 0 and 9 except I believe he uses hexadecmimal to express his balk totals.

2006-08-01 12:48:23
143.   Marty
I guess I asked for that.
2006-08-01 12:49:09
144.   Marty
Like I use hexadecimal to express my age. I'm 32 in hex.
2006-08-01 12:51:04
145.   regfairfield
139 Johnson's best run (he's number three in ERA+ all time): 172, 240, 259, 164, 191. Still not close to Pedro's best.
2006-08-01 12:53:57
146.   regfairfield
141 5217.3 IP, 3.22 ERA 4136 K, 1833 BB. Doesn't make the top 100 ERA+ list with a career ERA+ of 115.

Admiteddly, not making the list isn't that bad, because relievers mess everything up (Mike Timlin is on there, for example), but 115 is well below even Tom Glavine, who's 96.

2006-08-01 12:56:00
147.   Greg Brock
A) ERA is not the end all be all
B) Johnson played for horrible teams almost his entire career, and still had 20 wins 10 years in a row
C) 417 wins, 110 shutouts

Hey, Pedro is right there. I just think Johnson's body of work is greater.

2006-08-01 12:57:56
148.   savetheblues
For the record I didn't look at his wins and losses(irrelevant. He was 105 then 177 then 115 then 142. There was a strange inconsistency to it. In 96(his last with the Sox, he had a k to walk of 2.5 to 1, the worst of his career, and also walked the most batters of his career by far. The two years before he had been hurt and out of the rotation. Then when he gets to the Jays he recommits to fitness and gets MUCH better. If that improvement was natural(and put me firmly in the camp of doubters) he should have been embarassed for not giving the red sox his all.
2006-08-01 12:58:16
149.   natepurcell
Hey, Pedro is right there. I just think Johnson's body of work is greater.


2006-08-01 12:58:48
150.   regfairfield
147 How many games did he start those years when he won 20 games?

Comparing wins across eras is silly when guys were starting both ends of a double header. Johnson is probably my choice for number two pitcher, but he pitched in a much, much easier time where the league average ERA was under three for half his career.

Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2006-08-01 13:00:58
151.   Bob Timmermann
Walter Johnson's high in starts in a season was 42 in 1910.

He also would relieve from time to time. His high in IP was 370.

2006-08-01 13:02:18
152.   Greg Brock
150 Look at the team's winning % those years. It's more of a ringing endorsement of Johnson than anything. Pedro, throughout his career, played for consistently outstanding teams. Again, Pedro's right there. But he's not Walter Johnson.
2006-08-01 13:03:47
153.   SCRocks

The Marlins have Four starters in their rotation under 24:

Willis traded to Florida by cubs
Johnson Drafted in '02
Olsen Drafted in '02
Nolasco traded to Florida by cubs

that's a very decent core to build around.


2006-08-01 13:04:16
154.   natepurcell
Again, Pedro's right there. But he's not Walter Johnson.

Yep, Pedro's body ain't as good.

2006-08-01 13:04:49
155.   Marty
You'd never call Pedro "Big Train"
2006-08-01 13:07:05
156.   Penarol1916
152. I'm sorry, but who cares about wins, even if it was for consistently crappy teams. He did not prevent runs as well as Pedro, the best argument for Johnson is that he pitched signficantly more innings than Pedro did per season, thus making a bigger impact, but to discount ERA+ and then go with wins as the body of work to look at is just obscene.
2006-08-01 13:07:48
157.   natepurcell
how about "the little Dominican Engine that could?"
2006-08-01 13:10:59
158.   Bob Timmermann
In his day, people called Walter Johnson "Barney" most of the time.

Coming into this season, Pedro Martinez's ERA+ was 166.

The next best was Lefty Grove's 148.

Koufax had a career ERA+ of just 131. That puts him behind John Hiller!

2006-08-01 13:11:21
159.   Greg Brock
Sorry, wins matter. I'm no "old school" nonsense guy, not by a long shot. Whip, ERA+, park factors, lg ERA, they all matter, but at the end of the day, wins matter too.

We simply agree to disagree. I'll have my Walter Johnson camp, you'll have your Pedro camp, and the planet will keep spinning. No worries.

2006-08-01 13:12:42
160.   Steve
Yes, I know. But...

If he lives up to his promise and the Dodgers' run at the playoffs is an abortive one, Colletti and company will live to regret their recent maneuvers. Unfortunately for Dodger fans, that seems to be the most likely outcome.

This is not the conclusion of a "seemingly positive" review. This is what I was talking about, Nate.

Please, as you were.

2006-08-01 13:12:50
161.   Greg Brock
156 Try to refrain from the "obscene" stuff. Please. No need to get snippy. It's a friendly argument.
2006-08-01 13:14:52
162.   Penarol1916
159. Ah, but I'm not in the Pedro camp, he was always too delicate for my tastes, I just think you are providing a poor argument for Johnson especially since it has been pointed out that comparing wins across eras doesn't make any sense at all.
2006-08-01 13:15:04
163.   Rob M
159 team wins matter. they are a factor of many things, pitching included. the way wins are assigned to pitchers is arbitrary enough that it should be the least important factor in your evaluation.
2006-08-01 13:17:16
164.   regfairfield
159 If you use translated winning percentage, which adjusts for team and era, Johnson has a 422-170 record, Pedro is 268-88, giving him a better winning percentage. Pedro also has better translated strikeout, home run, and walk rates.

Maybe when Pedro hits the downside of his career, Johnson will catch up, but for now, Pedro is better at every aspect of the game.

2006-08-01 13:17:50
165.   Greg Brock
Good lord. I think I brought up wins once, and then tried to defend the barrage of criticism. I simply said that wins matter. I didn't say they mattered above everything in the history of the world. I just said that they matter.

Forget I ever mentioned Walter Johnson...Uh...Jose Cruz Jr. sucks?

2006-08-01 13:20:59
166.   Andrew Shimmin
For the curious, 160 is quoting Dayn Perry

2006-08-01 13:21:20
167.   bhsportsguy
160 live to regret come on now, this is not life or death, its just baseball. Does Fred Claire wake up everyday and say OMG I traded Pedro Martinez.
2006-08-01 13:21:43
168.   D4P
Jose Cruz Jr. sucks?

That reminds me: has he ever played shortstop? He'd certainly be a cheaper option, and probably not much worse (if at all) on defense than Fur-kel has been this year.

Fur-kel: .278/.351/.381/.732
Cruz: .233/.353/.381/.734

2006-08-01 13:22:32
169.   underdog
153 Btw, I was trying to remember who the Marlins traded away to get Dontrelle Willis from the Cubs (who, alternatively, who the Cubs got to give him up) and looked it up.

Antonio Alfonseca.
The wire story had it as "The Cubs, desperate for a relief ace since Tom Gordon was injured, acquired Alfonseca and pitcher Matt Clement from the Marlins in a six-player trade Wednesday. Florida got pitcher Julian Tavarez and three minor leaguers -- pitchers Jose Cueto and Dontrelle Willis and catcher Ryan Jorgensen." So Willis was the one real prize there. Alfonseca did have a pretty decent first year there with the Cubs (19 saves) but not as good the next year, and then drifted around (including another stint with Florida) before washing up with Texas this year.

2006-08-01 13:22:49
170.   Sam DC
Oh no. Cub Town has given Izturis an exclamation point.
2006-08-01 13:23:05
171.   Penarol1916
167. Yes, and D4P makes sure of it.
2006-08-01 13:23:34
172.   Eric L
159 I can make an argument for both guys. Pedro had a fantastic peak in an era of high offense. His adjusted ERA is a reflection of such.

Johnson is no slouch either. He is #3 all time on the adjusted ERA list.

For career value, Johnson takes the cake. His 146 ERA+ is over 6000 innnings. As of last season, Pedro had pitched 2500 innings.

2006-08-01 13:23:36
173.   Bob Timmermann
162 165
C'mon, I thought you two were united in a dislike for the Italian national soccer team!
2006-08-01 13:24:06
174.   underdog
168 Don't we already have 12 shortstops? Plus, I think Cruz at short would be about as effective as Toby Hall or Derek Lowe in CF. But I could see converting Mark Hendrickson to first base.
2006-08-01 13:24:06
175.   GoBears
165 Fair enough. But wins don't matter. Not even a little bit.
2006-08-01 13:24:25
176.   savetheblues
Pitchers and hitters are both impossible to compare outside of era's, even with adjusted stats. Ruth, Gehrig, et al. never had to hit sliders and splitters. Walter Johnson threw one pitch, which would have had him crushed in this day and age no matter how good that fastball was. It's a unique sport, in that way, that it changes so much that a talent 60-70 years ago may be mediocre today.
2006-08-01 13:26:26
177.   Nagman
Inside The Dodgers has the scoop. Jose Cruz Jr. DFA'd. Lineup is in, Lugo and Betemit starting.
2006-08-01 13:26:32
178.   D4P
Not to mention the eras of juiced balls and juiced bodies.
2006-08-01 13:26:34
179.   Eric L
176 You can also go on the flip side of that coin. Hitters today don't have to spitters and whatever else a pitched was able to load up on.

Is it true that Johnson only had one pitch? Shoot for all intents and purposes, Mariano Rivera only has one pitch.

2006-08-01 13:27:42
180.   fan 4 40 plus
Cruz has been dfa'd according to Inside the Dodgers
2006-08-01 13:28:02
181.   D4P
Isn't Cruz Jr. better than Lofton...?
2006-08-01 13:28:16
182.   SCRocks

So it is possible to trade for pitching then....


2006-08-01 13:28:27
183.   fan 4 40 plus
177 missed it by that much
2006-08-01 13:29:48
184.   savetheblues
Yeah, that's what made Johnson so amazing for his time, but also something that would make him a project for our time. Johnson developed a curve late in his career, but his pitch was a fastball that he could always throw hard, unlike other pitchers of the time. He had an arm like Nolan Ryan, basically, but with his era's wider zone and his ability to throw what would be high heat even today on every pitch, most guys couldn't catch up to it. Mariano's pitch is a moving pitch, whereas Johnson threw a straight fastball, and Mariano's ability to only throw one pitch is one reason he is a 'pen guy.
2006-08-01 13:30:13
185.   bhsportsguy
Apparently it did not help Cesar and Jose that they got the key hits on Sunday.
2006-08-01 13:30:30
186.   King of the Hobos
Sele is in the ItD lineup, so he is starting. Billingsley is still on the roster though with Cruz going, so this could be Sele's last chance at being a starter.
2006-08-01 13:30:35
187.   D4P
Tonight's lineup starts out:


2006-08-01 13:30:48
188.   bhsportsguy
181 No.
2006-08-01 13:30:56
189.   gibsonhobbs88
125 - 100% agree. I voted for Koufax for LA hometown hero. To realize he was dominant despite an increasingly painful and chronic arthritic elbow that he would have to sink and soak in ice after each game he pitched and even in the 60's, four man rotations were the order of the day, his accomplishments were even more remarkable.
162 - It is comparing apples and oranges as to compare eras. In the Big Train's day, they pretty much had 3 starting pitchers at the most and those starters would get approximately 50 starts every year and pitched until their arm fell off. A five man rotation was unheard of until it became commonplace in the mid-70's. Now 5 man rotations obviously came from the advent of free agency when pitchers started making more money and their agents would demand more tender care of their pitchers if they exhibited any type of soreness in their elbow and shoulder. This is why as Cowherd said today that Cy Young's 511 wins will never be broken or even approached.
2006-08-01 13:31:28
190.   Greg Brock
179 Johnson developed a curveball in his early-mid thirties, but yes, he basically threw hard...really hard...all the time. You didn't need anything else pre-live ball era. Fastballs and spitters (which Johnson didn't throw).
2006-08-01 13:31:40
191.   Bob Timmermann
I believe Walter Johnson threw fast balls almost exclusively. But since he was the only guy throwing around 95 mph all the time back then, he was pretty imposing.

I don't believe there was any accurate timing of the speed of his pitches though. It's likely pitchers today throw harder, but it was the constant hard throwing that was the key to Johnson's success.

2006-08-01 13:31:51
192.   Steve
187 -- You're welcome.
2006-08-01 13:32:17
193.   MartinBillingsley31
Isn't Cruz Jr. better than Lofton...?

Hell yea, anyone is better than lofton.

2006-08-01 13:34:15
194.   Bob Timmermann
I would think that Cruz can be traded for something much more easily than Lofton. The Dodgers have 10 days to move him and they can probably get something for him. Somebody will want Cruz even if he brings nothing more than a not so prospective prospect.
2006-08-01 13:35:44
195.   savetheblues
189. No doubt Koufax is our hometown hero, he's the only player who will be in the HOF as a dodger who could be considered the best at any position.
It's not just the difference in pitcher usage but also the quality of the athletes improving, the new understandings of ball movement, the different mound, the different strike zone. Think about it in these terms. What would happen if...
Ruth played today
Pre-roid bonds played in his time
If Pedro pitched in Johnson's time
If Jonson pitched in the mid 90's
Would Johnson have pedro's ability to create movement on pitches that no one had seen? Who knows, and who cares. They shouldn't be compared in terms of "greatness" or who is the best.
2006-08-01 13:37:47
196.   regfairfield
You don't DFA guys with a .353 on base. You do this move if you are playing for next year and want to see what Repko can do, not if you want to win.
2006-08-01 13:37:48
197.   Terry A
181 - Yes.

Lofton is killing the team with his presence in CF every day. Cruz is (was) merely taking up a spot on the bench.

If they're so committed to Lofton, why not just option Repko?

2006-08-01 13:38:54
198.   Penarol1916
173. My only dislike of the Italian soccer team is the fact that they cost me a Togo T-shirt.
2006-08-01 13:40:33
199.   gibsonhobbs88
190 - They also only played day games, all the games were played within the Eastern and Central timezones so travel isn't as extensive as today, though their travel was by bus or train back then. To approach 500 wins, you need to average 20 wins a year for 25 years or 25 wins for 20 years, in an age when you may get 32 starts a year. Does not leave very many Losses and ND does it?
2006-08-01 13:42:07
200.   savetheblues
Well according to Harold Reynolds and John Kruk, Randy Johnson would have won 30 games on the Yankees a bunch of times.
Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2006-08-01 13:42:58
201.   bhsportsguy
194 Actually, if he is proven to be healthy, Ricky Ledee is probably the easiest to move because you know he does not have to play everyday and he has some post season experience.
2006-08-01 13:43:05
202.   Robert Daeley
165 Since Greg was able to get Jose Cruz Jr DFA's by saying he sucked, what other players would you like him to get rid of?

And Greg, pretty please always use your powers for good, not evil okay? ;D

2006-08-01 13:43:27
203.   Bluebleeder87
"Prior to today's game, we designated Jose Cruz Jr. for assignment to make room on the roster for Maddux and Lugo."

I like it.JMO.

2006-08-01 13:44:17
204.   StolenMonkey86
There is no good reason for starting Kenny Lofton in centerfield. Not that Grady would let that stop him, though.
2006-08-01 13:44:51
205.   D4P
Also from the Inside the Dodgers blog:

There was obviously a ton of coverage of yesterday's trades, both locally and nationally. I think Bill Plaschke of the L.A. Times hit the nail on the head with his analysis of the trade while Kevin Modesti of the Daily News makes a very intriguing claim: that Maddux will be the greatest player that has ever worn a Dodger uniform. I'd love to hear fans debate that one, as a case can be made in agreement or for several other players.

Steve Bisheff of the Orange County Register thinks that Ned did the right thing.'s Dayn Perry breaks down all the trades, giving the Dodgers seemingly good marks for their moves. USA Today's Mel Antonen thinks the Dodgers got better while Jon Weisman has his own strong analysis on DodgerThoughts, as always. (Who am I kidding? I'm sure you've read his long before you'll read this).

Pretty positive spin, eh? Didn't Dayn Perry not give the Dodgers good marks...?

2006-08-01 13:45:50
206.   Greg Brock
202 I'll do my best. I make no promises. I'm taking aim at Gio Carrara as we speak.
2006-08-01 13:47:13
207.   gibsonhobbs88
195 - We agree but coming from two different angles. We shouldn't compare the Big Train with Pedro, that's the point I was making as well. You could only compare pitchers from a like generation that experienced similar conditions, competition, ect... Clemens, Pedro, Maddux, Big Unit have been among the best over the last 20 years, Mid 80's to the present. Any other comparisons, though fun to banty about, are moot.
2006-08-01 13:47:26
208.   regfairfield
I liked this passage from John Heymans "winners and losers" column today.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers
GM Ned Colletti was the one buyer who pulled off multiple meaningful deals on deadline day, landing 327-game winner Greg Maddux and multitalented infielder Julio Lugo. It may not get the Dodgers to the playoffs, but at least it made them feel better in the longest, hottest summer in L.A. in years.

It's pretty sad that a team that made itself feel better had the second best deadline.

2006-08-01 13:48:35
209.   bhsportsguy
196 Have you seen him play all here, sure he gets his walks but that represents his only offensive value.

With Ethier and Drew set in LF and RF and Lofton and Repko playing center and Ledee as the LH bat off the bench, Cruz was the 6th guy, so his movement off the team was soon in coming.

2006-08-01 13:48:50
210.   Bob Timmermann
The trades for Maddux and Lugo moved the Dodgers higher up on the Maslow Self-Actualization pyramid.
2006-08-01 13:49:15
211.   Uncle Miltie
Why is Lofton still on the team? His defense is killing us in CF, his bat is killing us in the lineup, and right now he's running like Izturis. I'm sure Marquis Grissom could outproduce Lofton right now.
2006-08-01 13:51:40
212.   Bob Timmermann
Lost amidst all the discussion yesterday, I'm wondering if Toby Hall will become Maddux's catcher since he never seems to like pitch to the #1 catcher.

Or had he stopped that in Chicago?

2006-08-01 13:52:16
213.   regfairfield
209 I think I've been the only one here who wasn't calling for Cruz's head.
2006-08-01 13:52:35
214.   D4P
At the very least, Cruz Jr. should have platooned with Lofton against lefties. In addition to being much better on defense this year, Cruz also had the following (significant) advantage:

vs. lefties:

Cruz: .313/.420/.522/.942
Lofton: .213/.302/.234/.536

2006-08-01 13:53:56
215.   Xeifrank
Went to "Inside the Dodgers" blog to read the Cruz news. Came across this blurb I think Bill Plaschke of the L.A. Times hit the nail on the head with his analysis of the trade That's some sense of humor they have over there. :) vr, Xei
2006-08-01 13:58:13
216.   Bluebleeder87
Why is Lofton still on the team? His defense is killing us in CF, his bat is killing us in the lineup, and right now he's running like Izturis. I'm sure Marquis Grissom could outproduce Lofton right now.


2006-08-01 13:58:50
217.   underdog
Cruz is better defensively no doubt, but Lofton seems to make things happen on offense much more than Cruz does, and maybe also, as someone above suggested, the Dodgers are more likely to be able to receive something decent in trade for him than they would for Lofton. Just my three cents, or sixth sense.

I'm a little surprised if there's any nostalgia or sadness here about this move, since there wasn't a ton of love for Cruz while he was here. I have nothing against him, really, though he was a little too erratic and slump-prone for my taste. But I do think another team will want him, LA will get something in return and that's mostly what this is about (plus Lugo could play OF in a pinch, too).

2006-08-01 14:02:24
218.   underdog
Btw, 170 - you should read Cub Town's analysis of Cesar(!) - the "!" is a little on the cynical side... Pretty fun to read at any rate.
2006-08-01 14:02:32
219.   D4P
Lofton seems to make things happen on offense much more than Cruz does

Are you referring primarily to BA and SBs?

2006-08-01 14:03:15
220.   Derek Smart
212 - He'd been pitching to Michael Barrett all year, and with former caddy Henry Blanco on the roster to boot. I think that always had more to do with the specific case of Javy Lopez, anyway.
2006-08-01 14:03:25
221.   Daniel Zappala
I think Bill Plaschke of the L.A. Times hit the nail on the head with his analysis of the trade

He must have been using a sledgehammer to hit a needle.

2006-08-01 14:04:12
222.   savetheblues
You say we don't have any nostalgia or sadness about Cruz, which is true, but that got me thinking about a more depressing point. How many of the current players on this team do we really like, how many guys are there that are fan favorites. I've always been more pro-win than keeping the guys everyone loves(Izzy, Lo Duca) but at the same time, if this team won, I feel like it would be less of a thrill because there are no guys with the exception of Nomar I feel any sort of attachment to.
2006-08-01 14:09:22
223.   Bob Timmermann
The Dodgers who played in the team's last postseason game:

Izturis - Cubs
Werth - Injured for indefinite period
Finley - Giants
Beltre - Mariners
Green - Diamondbacks
Bradley - Athletics
Cora - Red Sox
Mayne - Retired
Brazoban - See Werth above
Venafro - Don't want to know
Carrara - He's back!
Grabowski - Japan
Gagne - See Brazoban above
Perez - Royals
Alvarez - Retired
Ross - Reds
Ventura - Retired
Wilson - ????

2006-08-01 14:09:46
224.   Robert Daeley
According to the 25-man roster that just got updated (though not yet with Cruz leaving), Maddux will be wearing #36, since Penny already had #31.

2006-08-01 14:10:36
225.   bigcpa
Joe Sheehan at BP weighs in. I'll excerpt-

"Consistent with his training under Brian Sabean and his work to date, Ned Colletti used more of Logan White's work product to bolster the roster, sending away Joel Guzman in exchange for two months of Julio Lugo, while also adding one of the greatest pitchers who ever lived...

It's not that there would never be justification for dealing away a Guzman or a Dioner Navarro. If you're going to move a guy like that, though, it needs to be for impact players. Mark Hendrickson and Julio Lugo don't rise to that level, don't come close, and both are rentals. That Colletti is being so cavalier with the products of the Dodgers farm system in a year when their postseason hopes aren't strong is a worrisome sign. "

2006-08-01 14:11:19
226.   bhsportsguy
222 The last team I had any real attachment to was the 1981 Dodgers because they had guys that I grew up watching.

1988 was a magical season but I can't even name the starting lineup for the 5th game of the World Series.

I was there on Sunday when Wilsom Betemit got some cheers, Nomar is certainly the Star of the team. Russ is probably the closest to the "heart and soul" and when Kemp comes back, he will the player that no one will want to miss when he comes to bat.

2006-08-01 14:12:38
227.   King of the Hobos
If Cruz goes without a 40 man roster player coming, that would mean we have an extra roster space available for a September call up. There's not really anyone in AAA worth using that spot on (maybe Hanrahan or Alexander), so it wouldn't surprise me if Ned uses it for someone like Bellorin, or ignores it.
2006-08-01 14:12:53
228.   Robert Daeley
Sheehan needs a bit of correcting:

"That Colletti is being so cavalier with some products of the Dodgers farm system..."

2006-08-01 14:14:04
229.   StolenMonkey86
Lugo's homer rates

Career AB/HR
April: 50.43
May: 42.64
June: 101.20
July: 63
August: 41.62
September: 42.45

2006 AB/HR
April: no homers in 2 at bats
May: 98
June: 15.14
July: 20.75

His best homer rates until now have been August and September 2003, at 18.67 and 19.20 AB/HR respectively, as well as 16 in April 2001 and 23.2 in September 2000 from his days in Houston.

He's had his slump, but he's also had his good spurt, so there is no reason to expect him to continue to put out like he has, but it is not altogether impossible that he would.

Either way, he's not a number 3 hitter unless he stays hot.

2006-08-01 14:16:37
230.   Daniel Zappala
Interesting lineup today. 4 new players out of the top 8 positions, relative to the start of the season: Lugo, Ethier, Betemit, Loney. Not counting Martin, who wasn't expected this season either. Puts a different perspective on the recent trades. Our lineup was looking threadbare.
2006-08-01 14:16:56
231.   King of the Hobos
223 Wilson is currently with the Albuquerque and Venafro is pitching for Colorado Springs.
2006-08-01 14:17:21
232.   Nick Iyengar
I have to wonder why Jose Cruz, Jr. couldn't have been traded for something before the deadline. DFA'ing him the day after the deadline means we may well lose him without getting anything in return, if I understand the process correctly. Since we are now in August, won't Cruz, Jr. have to clear waivers before he can be traded to anyone?

What are the chances that no team will claim Cruz, Jr. off of waivers? If another team claims him, it wouldn't have to compensate the Dodgers with anything, correct?

My sense is that Cruz, Jr. would have been worth at least something to a few teams and that it will have been a waste if we let him go without anything coming back to us.

2006-08-01 14:17:55
233.   Bob Timmermann
From memory, although I can't give you the order, in Game 5 of the 1988 World Series, the Dodgers started:
1B - Stubbs
2B - Sax
SS - Griffin
3B - Woodson
LF - Hatcher
CF - Shelby
RF - Marshall
DH - Davis
C - Dempsey
P - Hershiser

(I missed at third base when I checked.)

2006-08-01 14:20:03
234.   Bob Timmermann
Tracy Woodson was not a good fielding third baseman as I have discovered.
2006-08-01 14:20:13
235.   Daniel Zappala
233 And now all those guys are going around to their friends saying "look what I've got!"
2006-08-01 14:24:42
236.   Robert Daeley
Retrosheet for that game:

2006-08-01 14:28:39
237.   bhsportsguy
233 There is a project for a long winter's day, finding a worse lineup, outside of Orel pitching that day, that won the World Series.

Interestingly, that team still had 6 players that started in the Dodger system playing for them that night.

2006-08-01 14:39:36
238.   Bluebleeder87
234 Tracy Woodson was not a good fielding third baseman as I have discovered.

he was manly a pull hitter from what I remember no? (some pop also)

2006-08-01 14:40:57
239.   Bob Timmermann
Tracy Woodson was 6'3" and 215 lbs in his playing days.

He played in 215 games.

He hit five home runs.

2006-08-01 14:47:20
240.   JoeyP
I was in favor of trading Cruz for something. Not releasing him. Ledee, and Lofton should have both gotten the ax before Jose Cruz. Cruz can at least kill lefties and play good defense.

Ledee doesnt really play enough to warrant keeping, and Lofton just overall is a poor ballplayer. Lofton is horrible against LHP, and against RHP he does ok but isnt worth having out there bc his defense is just so so so bad in CF. And this is coming from someone that thinks defense is generally overrated, but Lofton cant even make the routine plays. Thats when defense becomes a problem.

As for Logan White, its easy to understand why he gave up Joel Guzman. Guzman wasnt drafted by Logan White. He wasnt signed by him. Guzman isnt one of White's guys. Willy Aybar was not either.

Its no surprise they have closed down that DR recruiting complex. Aybar/Guzman are the last big bonus kids they had, now they are gone.

2006-08-01 14:49:41
241.   Bluebleeder87
239 He hit five home runs.

for some reason I thought he had pop

2006-08-01 14:52:15
242.   Bluebleeder87
240 Its no surprise they have closed down that DR recruiting complex.

that's news to me, we did produce Raul Mondesi from there. any other greats I don't know.

2006-08-01 14:52:25
243.   underdog
219 I'm referring to levels of suckitude. It's a stat that is hard to find measures of in most baseball analysis. ;-) No, yeah, I mean Lofton's speed, SBs, BA, though I know those can be a misleading. But I think Cruz playing every day even would still fall short in those areas (though, again, would be better in the field).

232 According to ESPN's Rob Neyer: If a player is waived, (1) They can send him to the minors (subject to his consent, if he's a "Veteran Player," more on that below).

(2) They can release him, which makes the player a free agent and thus available to sign with any team.

(3) They can trade him to another team, even if the so-called "trading deadline" has passed. Any trades made after July 31 may only involve players who have cleared waivers.

If a player doesn't clear waivers -- in other words, if he's claimed by another team or teams -- the club requesting waivers may withdraw the waiver request.

If the club doesn't withdraw the waiver request, the player's contract is assigned in the following manner:

(A) If only one claim is entered, the player's contract is assigned to that claiming club.

(B) If more than one club in the same league makes claims, the club currently lower in the standings gets the player.

(C) If clubs in both leagues claim the player, preference shall always go to the club in the same league as the club requesting waivers.

2006-08-01 14:53:29
244.   King of the Hobos
240 Cruz wasn't released, he was DFA'd. He could be released, but there's a good chance he'll be traded for something, likely a roster filler.
2006-08-01 14:54:02
245.   Eric L
that's news to me, we did produce Raul Mondesi from there. any other greats I don't know.

Adrian Beltre and the Martinez brothers say hi.

(not that Adrian is great)

2006-08-01 14:54:15
246.   underdog
Oops, sorry, I meant to post this which is Neyer's explanation of DFA/Designated for Assignment, more relevant here:

"Designated for Assignment
You'll sometimes read that a player has been "designated for assignment."

What does this mean? Essentially, it allows a club to open up a roster spot while it figures out what it's going to do with a player. As we'll see below, there are certain situations in which a team needs a player's permission to either trade him or send him to the minors. So rather than force the player to make a quick decision, the team can simply designate him for assignment while he decides.

More commonly, a player is designated for assignment so the club can open up his roster spot while they're waiting for him to clear waivers, which can take four or five days. Occasionally, a club will designate a player for assignment while they're trying to trade him. That's what happened to Hideo Nomo this past June."

2006-08-01 14:59:46
247.   JoeyP
242. Well, they closed half of it. Are they leasing the other half to the D-Rays too?
2006-08-01 15:00:44
248.   Bluebleeder87

why would they close it down?? I don't agree with that one bit, I'm sure they still have scouts over there right?

2006-08-01 15:00:53
249.   ssjames
If I had to guess I would say the reason for Cruz being DFA'd instead of Ledee is the salary difference between the two, especially since Cruz has a $4.5 million option or $300K buyout for next year. Boy are we clearing salary lately for a big push next offseason. With Izturis, Perez and Cruz looking to be gone we are starting to slash some of the above assumed payroll figures, hopefully to push after something worthwhile. (Matusoka?)
2006-08-01 15:01:28
250.   bhsportsguy
240 I think there has been some miscommunication, the Dodgers did not close down their Dominican complex, in fact they just had a ceremony there in March.

But they did reduce the number of teams they had in the Dominican Summer League from two to one. And they entered into a lease with the Devil Rays so they can use the complex and operate a team in the Dominican Summer League.

Show/Hide Comments 251-300
2006-08-01 15:02:24
251.   regfairfield
249 This assumes that someone will take Cruz's salary.
2006-08-01 15:02:37
252.   JoeyP
Arent you glad we're so charitable with the D-Rays?
2006-08-01 15:04:01
253.   ssjames
251 True, but at least we know now that we aren't picking up his option for sure, and I would rather spend $300K to make him go away than $4.5 million for him to play for us next season. This removes some more potential salary obligations, especially if some team decides that they want him.
2006-08-01 15:06:22
254.   regfairfield
253 I figure the odds were 1000 to 1 that we were picking up his option anyway.
2006-08-01 15:06:37
255.   bhsportsguy
240 At least admit you were wrong when you said they closed it instead of making a snide comment about a business deal with D-Rays. I did not see anything that mentioned we gave them the rights to use the facility for free.

It is certainly logical to me that they could build a system by having one team in the Dominican instead of paying for twice as many players, instructors, expenses, etc.

2006-08-01 15:08:35
256.   Bluebleeder87
250 I think there has been some miscommunication, the Dodgers did not close down their Dominican complex, in fact they just had a ceremony there in March.

yeah, I read that story too, that's why i was like WHAT! o.k. cool.

2006-08-01 15:10:04
257.   JoeyP
I disagree.
Ask a college football coach if they would rather have less scholarships to hand out, or more? Everyone of them will say more, bc the more players you have the better chance that one of them might pan out.

Same thing when your recruiting for a baseball team. I'd rather have 30 players than 15.

2006-08-01 15:11:46
258.   Disabled List
Did anyone know that the Dodgers have a minor-leaguer named Pujols?

His first name is Kengshill, and he may have been a bit to eager to emulate his big-league namesake:

2006-08-01 15:17:15
259.   StolenMonkey86
I'm gonna guess that Maddux gets a little more rest, starting Friday or Saturday, depending on Sele's performance. Besides, I think Maddux said at one point he likes pitching in Miami because of the humidity, and the movement that he gets there.
2006-08-01 15:23:56
260.   Midwest Blue
Plashke: In the final breaths before baseball's trading deadline Monday, with his team's fans huddled in front of an empty hearth and dreading the onset of winter, Colletti burst through the door with arms full and smile wide.

That line sounds vaguely similar to something out of "Groundhog Day". Of course I get that deja vu feeling anytime I read Herr Dr. P.

2006-08-01 15:28:32
261.   Jon Weisman
Game thread is open.
2006-08-01 15:46:54
262.   Gold Star for Robot Boy
259 - Maddux's numbers in Joe Robbie/Pro Player/Dolphins Stadium (through 2005):
19 games started, 113-2/3 IP
106 hits (9 home runs) and 21 walks against 79 strikeouts
2 shutouts
record of 9-6
3.01 ERA, matching his career ERA

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