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About Jon
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
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It's a Miracle, A True Blue Spectacle
2006-08-08 09:30
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

... because this site and I are too old not to have made a Barry Manilow reference.

Shoot, what can I tell you? Ten pretty wins, all in a row. It's been an unexpected streak. It's not accompanied by the euphoria or light-headedness that came with the Dodgers' last 10-game winning streak in 2003 - a streak in which that year's holy smokes pitching staff held the opposition to 15 total runs. This year, it's a little bit more like, "Huh? Okay."

You know what this streak makes me think of? When I was on the eighth-grade basketball team, a 5-foot-1 reserve wearing glasses that one of my teammates called "even uglier than your last pair," I was playing in the fourth quarter of a game we were trailing by a hefty amount. An opposing player dribbled along the left sideline toward halfcourt, and I took a charge. (Pure Michael Cooper.) I looked to the ref to see that I got the call, then stood up and looked over to my dad in the stands.

He wasn't cheering ferociously. He wasn't even applauding. He was smiling and shaking his head, as if he couldn't quite believe he raised a kid who was drawing desperation offensive fouls.

We didn't win that game, but I can't say it wasn't worthwhile.

The Dodgers' win streak has been worthwhile too, obviously. Nothing like turning that frown upside down. There's still the problem of what will happen over the final 50 games of the season. This streak doesn't eliminate all the team's woes, just like the 1-13 stretch did not eliminate all the team's whoas. But it's been a fast and fun lesson in managing the ebb and flow of a season.

(I've noticed, by the way, that I have this habit in my concluding paragraphs of offering a conceding thought, then following it up with a counterpoint that's more important. "While that may be true, what's more important is this." I've been doing it so much that it's started to annoy me. I need to work that out.)

* * *

Ricky Ledee pinch-hit for Dodger pitcher Brad Penny in the bottom of the eighth inning Monday; less than 60 minutes later, he was a New York Met, claimed off waivers.

Though no one in the papers addressed the rationale of the release beyond it clearing a roster spot for Nomar Garciaparra (who still might not return from the disabled list until later this week), I have to assume that Dodger general manager Ned Colletti had been trying to trade Ledee but received no interest - then didn't blink when the Mets showed themselves willing to pick up the remaining $500,000 or so on Ledee's contract.

This is different from the more typical release of a player following him being designated for assignment. The Dodgers didn't receive a player in exchange for Ledee, but they found a taker.

The Associated Press mostly discussed the claim from the Mets' perspective, but what this would seem to reflect from the Dodgers' point of view is that the Dodgers prefer James Loney as a left-handed bat/backup first baseman/last-ditch outfielder to Ledee. While it might have been prudent to let Loney play every day in the minors and retain Ledee's corpus as insurance in case another outfielder got injured, I can't argue with Colletti's logic.

Comments (304)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-08-08 09:58:53
1.   bluetahoe
I have to admit that I'm STUNNED about the winning streak. It came out of nowhere.

I think jonnie w is on record as stating at one point he thought this team might lose as many games as last season....... and I 100% agreed. After that 1-13 stretch there was nothing to lead me to believe the Dodgers would bounce back.

I was ready to trade the Saito's, Lofton's etc.. for some decent prospects and so was everyone else on here. Fortunately, our GM didn't see it that way. He didn't sell sell sell. He just went out and improved the ball club. Kudos to Ned for not waiting till '07.

2006-08-08 10:00:17
2.   JoeyP
Are the Dodgers going with 24 players right now?
2006-08-08 10:03:24
3.   MartinBillingsley31
I was ready to trade the Saito's, Lofton's etc.. for some decent prospects and so was everyone else on here. Fortunately, our GM didn't see it that way. He didn't sell sell sell. He just went out and improved the ball club. Kudos to Ned for not waiting till '07.

I'm still ready to trade the lofton's of the world for prospects, unfortunately its too late.
So are we going to win the world series?
If not then why not trade the lofton's of the world for the future?

2006-08-08 10:05:52
4.   Jon Weisman
1 - "and so was everyone else on here."

False generalization, boldly rendered. There were commenters here who didn't think the deficit was insurmountable.

And Colletti did sell some players. He sold Aybar and Izturis and Guzman, whom a significant number of commenters here liked. Some even wanted Perez here next year.

2006-08-08 10:06:23
5.   Jon Weisman
2 - As of this morning, yes. Don't know if they'll activate Garciaparra tonight.
2006-08-08 10:06:56
6.   bluetahoe
3 If Penny/Lowe keep pitching like they are capable of the rest of the season I like our chances as good as any others in this league to make the World Series.

Look at the Mets rotation. Martinez and then what. Glavine? Maddux is as good as him. Trachsel, Hernandez? Puh-leez.

2006-08-08 10:07:28
7.   Steve
4 -- Those are the ones who can't afford Extra Innings, so they don't count.
2006-08-08 10:07:50
8.   gibsonhobbs88
2- I would think so until they activate Nomar, it doesn't make sense to bring some other position player for a day or so and use up another option on that player, they only have so many times you can call up and then send down a player until his options run out.
Going to the game tonight-looking for 11 wins a row with Maddux-looking to continue our winning ways against the one NL West team we can dominate. Hope it continues!!
2006-08-08 10:09:39
9.   Jon Weisman
3 - Say the Dodgers had your favorite GM, whoever that would be. Say they had the best GM in the world. If they couldn't get meaningful prospects for Lofton, is there a point in trading him?

We've just seen Cruz and Ledee go for nothing or next-to-nothing. I don't get the sense that you think Lofton is much better than those guys. Couldn't part of the rationale for keeping Lofton be that he's more valuable than what he'd return in trade?

I don't mind trading Lofton, but I have to admit I've probably overvalued him in the trade market. Teams are desperate for pitchers. They're not desperate for outfielders, from what I can tell.

2006-08-08 10:09:50
10.   Jike Spingleton
I have a feeling a lesson in how options work is forthcoming....
2006-08-08 10:12:42
11.   Howard Fox
I was at the game last night...

Timely hitting, good pitching, excellent defense...when Lugo throws behind the runner rounding 3rd, he is out in the rundown, then they almost get the trailing runner at 2nd...

They are playing and making plays like a winning team...yes, I know they are winning, but its great to see...

I just hope it lasts...

2006-08-08 10:14:54
12.   Jon Weisman
10 - Sure, I'll be the one.

8 - Options are related to service time. You can call up a player multiple times in a year - that's still just one option.

2006-08-08 10:17:17
13.   ddger
Should Ned try to trade Sele when his value is really high and pitching is at a premium or should we keep Sele as insurance in case our other starters falter?
2006-08-08 10:17:35
14.   Jike Spingleton
Thanks, Jon.

Now that that's out of the way, perhaps Matt Kemp for one night until Nomar is activated tomorrow? Kind of a "just in case"....

2006-08-08 10:18:38
15.   Howard Fox
14 the way I count...with Dessens out and Ledee gone, we are at 25 without getting rid of Gio or Sele...
2006-08-08 10:21:03
16.   DXMachina
But it's been a fast and fun lesson in managing the ebb and flow of a season.

This season has been ebbing and flowing like the great typhoon of '44.

2006-08-08 10:22:27
17.   MartinBillingsley31
We've just seen Cruz and Ledee go for nothing or next-to-nothing. I don't get the sense that you think Lofton is much better than those guys. Couldn't part of the rationale for keeping Lofton be that he's more valuable than what he'd return in trade?

Some GM's are dumb and value speed over whatever cruz and ledee offer (some power and as good of obp as lofton, maybe not as good of obp right now today but that could change easily).
My point (whether or not anyone agrees) is that the dodgers are not going to win the world series, so why not sell for the future (and i'm not talking about selling what is valuable in our future, A.K.A saito).
Some were talking about selling some valuable players that we can use in the future like saito, i disagree about selling them.

Say the Dodgers had your favorite GM, whoever that would be. Say they had the best GM in the world. If they couldn't get meaningful prospects for Lofton, is there a point in trading him?

No, but i'd still rather have cruz or ledee over lofton.

2006-08-08 10:22:46
18.   Jon Weisman
16 - The year the Dodgers lost 16 in a row!
2006-08-08 10:24:48
19.   Jike Spingleton
15 - We'll be at 25 once Nomar is activated tomorrow. As of right now, there are 24 players on the active roster:

Pitchers (11) - Beimel, Billingsley, Broxton, Carrara, Hendrickson, Lowe, Maddux, Penny, Saito, Sele, Tomko

Catchers (2) - Hall, Martin

Infielders (7) - Betemit, Furcal, Kent, Loney, Lugo, Martinez, Saenz

Outfielders (4) - Drew, Ethier, Lofton, Repko

2006-08-08 10:28:08
20.   bluetahoe
17 No, but i'd still rather have cruz or ledee over lofton.

Lofton's not as bad as you make him out to be.

I'm kind of sad to see Ledee go, but Cruz.....meh, those K's, weak grounders to the right side, and infield pop ups drove me bonkers. Good riddance.

2006-08-08 10:29:08
21.   Jon Weisman
17 - I don't see the case for Ledee over Lofton, and given that the Dodgers have right-handed bats off the bench in Saenz, Repko, Martinez and Hall, I don't see the case for Cruz over Lofton. Lofton has an .803 OPS against righties.
2006-08-08 10:31:59
22.   ddger
{19] It seems that we are little short on outfielders? Is Lugo our 5th outfielder now. Loney and Martinez are emergency outfielders for now.
2006-08-08 10:32:23
23.   Zak
17 I'm a Dodger fan and would love to win the World Series as much as you would. But this notion that if they are not going to win the World Series (on paper), they should just give up right now and trade the Saitos and Loftons for nothing is ludicrous. Even if they don't win the WS, and I don't think I can say that conclusively right now, I am still having a lot of fun with this win streak and would love a deep Dodger run into the playoffs. Sure, I would be crushed when they lose and I would hope that they win, but I wouldn't want to not live that experience.

And the biggest problem with your argument, as it has been pointed out, is that trading someone like Lofton will probably not get us anyone who makes us a World Series winner in the near future, by your criteria.

2006-08-08 10:32:26
24.   Jacob L
I'm at the point where I don't mind having Lofton on the team, obvious flaws notwithstanding. I don't think he should be an every day starter, but then every time I'm ready to grumble about his name in the lineup, he seems to have a game like last night's. Its a tall order for Grady to shuttle guys in and out (Lofton, Repko, Loney, Lugo, etc) and keep the team on the field productive. I just hope he's up to it. Hard to complain at the moment.

As far as Saito as trade bait, isn't he on a one year deal? Is he arbitration eligible after this year?

2006-08-08 10:33:31
25.   gibsonhobbs88
19 - That leaves us with a logjam in the infield and not enough OF depth considering Drew's history of getting banged up and Lofton's age. I guess Lugo and/or Loney could go to the OF to alleviate the logjam a little when Nomar returns.

On Friday-Hendrickson would be scheduled to pitch to the HATED ONES. Would we rather have Sele pitch at home or do we just have to cross our fingers that Hendy doesn't get crushed?!

2006-08-08 10:37:17
26.   Zak
25 I'd rather have Sele pitch at home, but to be fair, the Giants aren't exactly crushing anybody right now. I think Hendy will be fine, and even if not, we have Penny and Maddux going over the weekend. It should be a good series.

Also, it's amazing how these thing work out by coincidence(?), but ESPN must be salivating over Joe Morgan go on about Greg Maddux on Sunday Night Baseball.

2006-08-08 10:37:46
27.   JoeyP
I cant ever recall a team going with 24 active roster players, even if it was just for 1 game.
2006-08-08 10:38:36
28.   MartinBillingsley31
trade the Saitos and Loftons for nothing is ludicrous.

I said i disagreed with people who talked about trading valuable pieces in our future A.K.A saito.

I am still having a lot of fun with this win streak and would love a deep Dodger run into the playoffs. Sure, I would be crushed when they lose and I would hope that they win, but I wouldn't want to not live that experience.

My philosophy,: if you can't win it all then try to improve your future.

And the biggest problem with your argument, as it has been pointed out, is that trading someone like Lofton will probably not get us anyone who makes us a World Series winner in the near future, by your criteria.

Who says we have to trade lofton alone?
How about in a package with other(s) that have no future with the dodgers?

2006-08-08 10:41:25
29.   Jon Weisman
27 - The Dodgers have done it in practice all the time this year - most recently with their delay in putting Kent and Garciaparra on the DL.
2006-08-08 10:43:50
30.   Blu2
As I understand it, the team losing a player on waivers gets a token amount of money from the acquiring team. I believe it was $25,000 in my youth but is up to $75,000, which is chump change considering the value of any ball player these days.
2006-08-08 10:45:28
31.   Zak
28 I'd like to win it all too, but the reality is you can have a great team on paper, but it may not gel and win it all. Or you can have a mediocre team on paper with no chance of winning and they can gel at the right time and win. See the recent Marlins and Astros teams for example. My philosophy is if you can improve your future in a highly impactful manner, a can't miss prospect or so, than by all means, make a big trade. But there wasn't anything like that available to the Dodgers by all accounts. So, why give up on guys who can maybe put it together, get on a hot streak and maybe carry us into the playoffs?
2006-08-08 10:45:39
32.   Jon Weisman
28 - If Lofton has no trade value (in the sense of being worth a meaningful prospect), how does Lofton + X bring more in trade than X?

Say you offered Lofton + Ledee to the Mets. What would you expect back in return? Maybe there's a chance you get a worthwhile prospect, but I'm skeptical.

2006-08-08 10:47:23
33.   gibsonhobbs88
27 - Only problem with going with just 24 is when you get one of those long extra inning affairs where it would leave you with one less move to make at the end of the game. You just hope you can end a game by the 12th before you completely deplete your resources. Jon - My wife would appreciate your Manilow reference in your post!!
2006-08-08 10:48:40
34.   Blu2
I can't stand Lofton's defensive lapses these days but no one can convince me he hasn't more than carried his weight with the bat. He now is the best argument out there for the Designated Hitter option. If some AL team doesn't sign him for that purpose next year, they're sure missing the boat. I wish the NL would accept the DH.d Do we dare offer him arbitration in order to get a draft pick for him?
2006-08-08 10:48:47
35.   Jon Weisman
32 - Again, two weeks ago, I would have thought you might get more.
2006-08-08 10:49:06
36.   bluetahoe
33 That's what kind of happened when Pujols took OP yard. Baez was unavailable. Like it would have mattered though.
2006-08-08 10:49:51
37.   MartinBillingsley31
Say you offered Lofton + Ledee to the Mets. What would you expect back in return? Maybe there's a chance you get a worthwhile prospect, but I'm skeptical.

Say you offered lofton, hendrickson or sele, and a prospect that in my opinion has no future on the dodgers (young for example) or a prospect who has a future on the dodgers but is part of the old fashioned baseball thinking, all glove no bat (hu for example).

2006-08-08 10:51:35
38.   King of the Hobos
27 We did it earler this year when Gagne was suspended.

Vegas is in New Orleans (although today's a bizarre game off in the middle of the series), so that could prevent them from calling someone up for just one game. Unless they want to do something really crazy, like call up Tommy Giles, only 24 men will be available tonight.

2006-08-08 10:52:15
39.   the OZ
30 Maybe that's true, but I suspect you're thinking of the Rule 5 draft. Teams that select unprotected minor leaguers in the Rule 5 draft must pay the player's old team a $50,000 fee. If the acquiring team later decides to give up on that player for any number of reasons (including certain roster requirements), they must be offered back to the original club for $25,000. The original club has no obligation to buy the player back.
2006-08-08 10:52:41
40.   RELX
Do you want Felix Rodriquez in exchange for Lofton? Or do you want Jose Hernandez back? Or Bobby Hill? Because those are the players that Lofton has been traded for over the past few seasons.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/loftoke01.shtml

2006-08-08 10:53:14
41.   Greg S
37. 0+1=1 0+2=2
In this equation, 0=Lofton and the other number equals whoiever else you want to trade.
I believe this matematically illustrates Jon's point.
Sorry Jon, don't mean to speak for you.
2006-08-08 10:54:54
42.   bluetahoe
40 - LOL... Nice research.
2006-08-08 10:54:56
43.   Robert Daeley
The other conveniently ignored issue with the "World Series or bust" philosophy is how much money a team makes during the playoffs -- successful or not. That can amount to millions of dollars in income, millions that can make a difference next year.
2006-08-08 10:55:59
44.   3upn3down
I don't mean to get too far ahead of the discussion here, but looking forward to tonight's game, I think we'll have a tough time with BK Kim.

Kim's faced the dodgers 3 times this year:
May 16th:
7ip, 4h, 1ER, 5BB, 5K

May 22nd (his next start following 5/16):
6ip, 6h, 1ER (3R), 2BB, 2K

June 9th (following a 5/28 start v. SF):
6ip. 8h, 3ER, 3BB, 5K

Our new hitters haven't faired well against Kim. Lugo is 0-8 with 5Ks. Hall is 0-3, and I don't believe Betemit has faced Kim this season.

The good news is that while seeing him in 3 of his 4 consecutive starts back in May/June, we seemed to figure him out. The bad news is that its been roughly 2 months since we've seen him, and our additions haven't fared well against him.

I wouldn't be opposed to sitting Lugo tonight, moving Kent back to 2nd, and giving Saenz and his .357 avg in 14ABs against Kim the start.

2006-08-08 10:56:17
45.   Blu2
Not making any claims here so don't attack, but would someone with access to all the relevant numbers please compare Lofton and Kent to see which has actually helped the club more this year. I know Kent has more homers etc, but I mean in actual won ball games. By the way, one write about about Kent said he is still feeling some pain. I predict that is going to get worse and we will lose him again for several weeks to maybe the rest of the year. So maybe Lugo will be of service to us anyway, my present opinion on that notwithstanding. Not to say that bringing up LaRoche wouldn't have been just as good now and better in the long run, from him and from keeping Guzman.
2006-08-08 10:58:06
46.   Greg S
43
Not to mention the money pulled in during the last month of the season. Money aside, and this is a point I've made before, I think the title run is worth a sacrafice, no matter the outcome. The late September games have been some of the most memorable of my life and as a fan, they are a big part of what I want to experience. The WS is everything. But the pennant race is far from nothing.
2006-08-08 10:59:46
47.   RELX
37. So, you propose we trade a CF we don't want, a pitcher--Hendrickson--we don't want, a pitcher we just dropped from the rotation, and a prospect that we don't really consider a prospect...and we are going to get back what?
2006-08-08 10:59:54
48.   Jon Weisman
45 - One stat is VORP in 2006:

Lofton 18.1
Kent 18.0

This does not factor in defense.

2006-08-08 11:03:41
49.   Zak
46 I agree with what you said. I just am not as articulate or efficient.
2006-08-08 11:03:51
50.   Icaros
I cant ever recall a team going with 24 active roster players, even if it was just for 1 game.

When I started seriously following baseball in the 80s, I remember 24-man rosters being the norm until a collective bargaining agreement changed it to 25 sometime in the late 80s/early 90s.

This NY Times archive from 1986 sheds some light:

http://tinyurl.com/j2oa6

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2006-08-08 11:04:02
51.   Jon Weisman
48 - Lofton's edge can be credited in part to his playing time advantage.
2006-08-08 11:04:47
52.   Blu2
27 If I remember correctly at one time in the past 40 years or so, all the major league clubs got together and agreed to carry only 24 players on the major league roster. This was a strike against the players union. The number was increased to 25 and made mandatory in the next labor negotiations.
2006-08-08 11:04:52
53.   MartinBillingsley31
So, you propose we trade a CF we don't want, a pitcher--Hendrickson--we don't want, a pitcher we just dropped from the rotation, and a prospect that we don't really consider a prospect...and we are going to get back what?

Um, the mets just claimed ledee, i'm sure they would take lofton over ledee.
Could they use a pitcher (and sorry i should have used more examples than just hendrickson or sele, maybe included beimel, carrara ect. take your pick mets).
A prospect not considered a prospect?, hello, hu is being touted as the next izturis with a little better bat.

2006-08-08 11:07:22
54.   3upn3down
Is "the next Izturis" a label we should continue giving our kids?
2006-08-08 11:08:58
55.   D4P
54
If said kids are banjo-hitting shortstops, then yes.
2006-08-08 11:09:18
56.   Jon Weisman
53 - But the question is what value is there in trading Lofton, and that's still not being addressed. The Mets only picked up Ledee's small remaining salary, nothing more.

The key to this proposed trade seems to be the outgoing prospect, not Lofton.

2006-08-08 11:12:50
57.   the OZ
53 A prospect can be "Izturis with a better bat" and still be an awful, awful hitter.

When I picture "Izturis with a better bat", I see Cesar holding one of those fancy newfangled double-walled aluminum things.

2006-08-08 11:15:55
58.   RELX
53.

Do you honestly think the Mets are going to give us anything for Beimel or Carrara, players we picked up off waivers ourselves this season?

I don't really understand why there is so much discussion about Lofton. He has done excatly what was hoped for this season--hit .300, steal bases, play bad defense. He is 40 years old, and has no trade value. At this point in his career, he will keep signing one-year deals with a different team every offseason, until he can't hit .300 or steal bases anymore.

2006-08-08 11:16:17
59.   Sam DC
I had known there was a new Rocky movie coming out, but I had not realized -- and I am still having trouble believing -- that the story is Rocky comeback.
2006-08-08 11:16:31
60.   screwballin
My point (whether or not anyone agrees) is that the dodgers are not going to win the world series

No one gave us a chance in '88, and the same could be said of a few World Series participants in recent years. I think there's a case to be made for doing what you can to get there, then hoping the team gets hot.

Of course, if we'd traded Gibby and Hershiser in '88, we could have gotten some terrific prospects...

2006-08-08 11:17:39
61.   D4P
58
Can anyone provide a SABR-friendly justification for placing value on "hitting .300" in and of itself, without consideration for other factors (e.g. OBP)?
2006-08-08 11:18:24
62.   Jon Weisman
60 - To be fair, Gibson/Hershsiser is nowhere near the kind of trade MB31 is proposing.
2006-08-08 11:18:46
63.   D4P
59
See: My comments on rehashing superhero movies and turning old TV shows into new movies.
2006-08-08 11:19:02
64.   Icaros
Ten years from now LA can trade Chin-Lung Hu for a 38-year-old Barry Zito.
2006-08-08 11:19:09
65.   3upn3down
I saw a preview for the new Rocky (would that be rocky VI?). The guy Rocky comes out of retirement to fight looks like Lamar Odom.

Not interested...

2006-08-08 11:20:24
66.   Robert Daeley
59 Just wait until the new Diehard movie comes out next year. ;)
2006-08-08 11:21:11
67.   Icaros
I'd go see the next Rocky if he stepped into the octagon with Tim Sylvia.
2006-08-08 11:26:40
68.   3upn3down
Does anyone else think the 9th inning last night would have been a good opportunity to use Carrara in lieu of throwing Broxton in a game that was under control with much less in doubt?

I understand he got up in the 8th when we were only up by 3, but I feel like I've seen him up more nights in the pen than not.

I'm just hoping he doesn't hit a wall come Sept. A healthy Dessens who can come in and throw 2+ inings at a time should help.

2006-08-08 11:28:30
69.   Hedge
44

My personal choice would be for Loney to start at first tonight, given Kim's righty/lefty splits. If I'm reading the MLB stats correctly, Kim has a 1.86 WHIP against lefties, 1.22 against righties. Difference is even more dramatic away from Coors. Lefties are also slugging .472, with .403 OBP against Kim.
Of course, that means that we'll see Kent at first, Lugo at second, Ramon Martinez at third and Repko in center :)

2006-08-08 11:28:52
70.   bhsportsguy
45 Its hard to figure out how much these stats play into who is more responsible for wins.

Jeff Kent
Runs Created (simple formula (Runs+RBI)-HRs) - 74

Regular Stat line: .270/.370/.465
RISP: .343/.479/.529
RISP w/2 out: .412/.583/.706

Kenny Lofton
RC - 75
Regular: .305/.355/.408
RISP: .323/.352/.462
RISP w/2 out: .276/.323/.345

Kent is more balanced when it comes to runs scored and RBI but Lofton does do his share of getting hits with runners on base.

When you look at VORP, there is no question that Jeff Kent is the best option the Dodgers have and even in limited work, Kent ranks 12th in the MLB at second base.

Kenny Lofton also ranks right around there, 13th in MLB in VORP in CF but both Matt Kemp and Jason Repko, with VORP of 7 and 6.7 in about 35% of Lofton's PAs, so its possible that both of those players could provide the same value, better defense and more power, certainly in Kemp's case.

But the total team value in VORP in CF is 31.8, only Arizona's is higher in the division with Byrnes and DaVanon.

2006-08-08 11:30:13
71.   Jon Weisman
I think Saito was warming up in the 8th before the Dodgers scored their final runs, actually.

Broxton had only thrown 38 pitches this month before Monday's game (16 on Sunday). I think he was perfectly fine for an inning.

2006-08-08 11:32:53
72.   MartinBillingsley31
Another factor in trading lofton is the fact that grady is in love with lofton kinda like the tracy factor, and as long as lofton is on the team, guys like repko and kemp will not get valuable playing time.
And nobody can convince me that grady is not in love with lofton, his playing time is proof enough, even when kemp was up, it was drew, lofton, and either kemp or ethier, very rarely you got drew, kemp, ethier, with lofton sitting.
2006-08-08 11:33:33
73.   bhsportsguy
68 I like Grady using his best pitchers in non-save situations, first it gets away from that stat influenced decisions also while I do think that Carrera and Dessens will be better at pitching with large leads than the Carters and Hamulacks of the world, I think Grady sees them as potential 2 inning guys (maybe Tomko too) while Broxton has clearly moved to the set up role and probably will get a chance or two to close if Saito pitches back to back games.
2006-08-08 11:34:32
74.   NPB
I don't think this is a World Series team, but I do think we have a legitimate shot at the NCLS. No NL team has a top-three starter combo as strong as ours, except the Astros, and the Astros aren't going to make the playoffs. Colletti's trades have made this team stronger, top to bottom.

We'll lose to the Mets, but the Mets seem to be able to hit grand slams even with the bases empty. Hard to stop that juggernaut.

2006-08-08 11:36:40
75.   Robert Daeley
72 I'm guessing that's more to do with whether they were going up against lefty or righty pitchers and wanting to balance out the lineup. Not that Grady doesn't love Lofton like a son, but let's keep things in perspective. ;)
2006-08-08 11:36:49
76.   Blu2
39 Wouldn't be the first time I've been wrong but I want to think I'm right on this one. But I can't prove it conclusively. I ran a Google search on "Baseball Waiver Price" and it pulled up several newspaper stories wherein some well known players were sold for "waiver price" and it lists the amounts. A GM would probably know the truth on this, ask Ned. Did find a web site that does give a simple explanation of Waivers, Options, Disabled Lists, etc., worth reading, but as they point out, they are not listing all the rules and regulations involved.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/s/transanctionsprimer.html
2006-08-08 11:37:35
77.   D4P
72
I think there's a decent chance that management is a bit hesitant to take playing time away from Lofton out of fear he'll cause trouble. I think Ned guaranteed him a lot of PT, and they're afraid he wouldn't react well to sitting on the bench.
2006-08-08 11:40:18
78.   MartinBillingsley31
I think there's a decent chance that management is a bit hesitant to take playing time away from Lofton out of fear he'll cause trouble. I think Ned guaranteed him a lot of PT, and they're afraid he wouldn't react well to sitting on the bench.

More reasons why lofton should never have been a dodger.

2006-08-08 11:44:51
79.   Brent T
Just for fun, here's a list I've kept of players who were Dodgers in 2005 or 2006, but have been cut/traded/left as free agent/retired/etc before or during 2006. It's a mighty long list, 22 players in all:

Bako
Valentin
W. Alvarez
Weaver
Phillips
A. Perez
Bradley
Driefort
D. Sanchez
Schmoll
E. Jackson
Choi
Seo
Navarro
O. Perez
Alomar
Izturis
Guzman
Aybar
Baez
Ledee
Cruz

2006-08-08 11:45:49
80.   Rob M
I'm not sure I get all this Lofton-hate. He's been a pretty good hitter this year - all I would have expected really. He's terrible in CF, and probably would be better in LF, but he's been very good offensively.

I'm also not ready to give up on Hu. I think I've heard Logan White speak very favorably of him, and if he's a domninant defender at SS, I'd be happy with average offense. We have no reason to assume he's a below average hitter.

I think this team could get to the WS if it makes the playoffs. There are no great pitching staffs in the NL. Penny/Lowe/Maddux could match up pretty well with any other top 3 in the league and Broxton and Saito are pretty solid in the pen. I wouldn't like our chances against the White Sox or Tigers, but I wouldn't mind getting the chance to face them.

2006-08-08 11:46:25
81.   the OZ
76 Thanks for closing the loop. I hadn't known there was a 'waiver fee.'
2006-08-08 11:47:38
82.   bluetahoe
The Lofton hate has become comical. It's just become a case of one person refusing to admit he was wrong.
2006-08-08 11:48:35
83.   ToyCannon
In the previous thread at the end Joey and Martin used an incredible small sample size to compare Lugo to Izzy. To match that I'm going to bring up the JtD sample size since moving on to TB.

From Rotowire:
Joel Guzman, of, Devil Rays (Triple-A Durham)
The 21-year-old looks lost since the trade that sent him to the Devil Rays. He is 3-for-19 with no walks and seven strikeouts for the Bulls and his elite prospect status is starting to come into question. It is still too early to give up on Guzman and he certainly has talent, but if he is going to be a left fielder, Carl Crawford's job in Tampa does not look to be in danger anytime soon.

By the end of the week he'll probably have bashed several homeruns and this silly sample size will be rendered moot as well the Lugo comparison when he settles down with his new club and continues his best offensive season.

2006-08-08 11:49:18
84.   Jon Weisman
Lofton's EQA is about .265. Average for a major leaguer. For center fielders, he's about 15th-20th, depending on what your plate appearance cutoff is.

And I think there's something of a consensus about his defense.

He's not great. He's not terrible. He's mediocre.

2006-08-08 11:51:27
85.   MartinBillingsley31
He's not great. He's not terrible. He's mediocre.

Bingo!
And that's what i've always called him, a mediocre veteran.

2006-08-08 11:51:59
86.   Brent T
Not only is it 22 players, it's essentially a workable roster with very thin pitching, but a decent, albeit catcher-heavy, lineup.

C - Bako
C - Phillips
C - Navarro
C - Alomar
1B - Choi
2B - A. Perez
2B - Aybar
SS - Izturis
3B - Valentin
3B - Guzman
LF - Ledee
CF - Bradley
RF - Cruz
SP - W. Alvarez
SP - Weaver
SP - E. Jackson
SP - Seo
SP - O. Perez
RP - Driefort
RP - D. Sanchez
RP - Schmoll
RP - Baez

2006-08-08 11:53:22
87.   screwballin
62 Yeah, I was being a bit sarcastic there. But it's been a long time since we even had a shot at the Series. It doesn't seem like a total longshot to me, as weak as the NL is this year.

Trading Lofton wouldn't bother me much; trading Saito for prospects, on the other hand, would really feel like throwing in the towel. I would hate to see that.

2006-08-08 11:54:33
88.   MartinBillingsley31
It's just become a case of one person refusing to admit he was wrong.

Its obvious you are talking about me, you didn't have to try to hide it.

Wrong about what?
730-740 ops prediction, yes lofton is currently above that slightly, but most of the season he has been right in the prediction and sometimes below and sometimes above.

So again, wrong about what?

2006-08-08 11:54:33
89.   Ben P
Here's a question regarding our outfield depth: Do we know if Ethier has played/can play CF or RF?

In the majors he has only played LF. I ask because if either Lugo or Loney is pressed into service as an OF, their inexperience suggests they should be put in LF (especially Loney). And if Ethier can't move positions then whenever Drew has an off day -- or gets hurt -- we'd be forced to play both Repko and Lofton for 9 innings.

2006-08-08 11:54:52
90.   Rob M
84 That's actually worse than I would have guessed. I thought he was above average on offense this year. Oh well.
2006-08-08 11:55:37
91.   Jon Weisman
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/08/death_taxes_and_1.php

From Keith Law's article:

.........

There are three kinds of waivers in MLB:

Unconditional release waivers. These are self-explanatory. A player on release waivers can be claimed for $1, and the claiming team assumes the player's contract. The player does have the right to refuse this claim and become a free agent.
Outright or special waivers. The name changes depending on the time of year, but the effect is the same. These are the waivers you use to kick a player off of your 40-man roster. They're also the waivers to use when you wish to send a player who is out of options to the minors (thereby also removing him from your 40-man). These waivers are irrevocable, meaning that if you place a player on outright waivers and he is claimed, you can not pull the player back off waivers.
Major league waivers. These are the waivers in question during August. Between 4 pm on July 31st and the end of the season, players must clear major league waivers to be assigned to another major league club. These waivers are revocable, and they are also the waivers required for players in Choi's situation, who have options remaining but are more than three calendar years removed from their debuts on major league rosters. Although these waivers are revocable, if a player on major league waivers is claimed and the waiver request is revoked, a subsequent major league waiver request in the same waiver period will be irrevocable.

2006-08-08 11:55:58
92.   bluetahoe
85 God forbid, but let's say Kenny Lofton died tragically in an auto accident last January. In your opinion what would the Dodgers team record be today?

You come across as though Kenny's holding this team back. Kenny's costing us wins. Maybe I'm misreading you. I don't know.

2006-08-08 11:56:59
93.   MartinBillingsley31
To add to 88

I knew lofton would take away valuable playing time from our youngsters even before the season started.

so again, wrong about what?

2006-08-08 11:57:45
94.   Xeifrank
To the people who say the Dodgers can't win it all this year, could you please explain why you think that is the case? The way I see it and probably alot of other people is that the NL West AND the wildcard are both up for grabs. Then if you believe that the playoffs are a crapshoot, a chance game with a slight house edge, then just maybe the Dodgers could advance in the playoffs. Sure the odds of the Dodgers (and all the other teams) winning it all are pretty slim, but my no means could I say the Dodgers have no shot of winning it all. vr, Xei
2006-08-08 11:59:26
95.   Robert Daeley
86 You could throw Phillips in as 1B/C. Valentin can roam around the IF. Guzman could be the 4th OF.

Definitely need pitching though -- only 9 of them. Baez as the closer?

2006-08-08 11:59:30
96.   Jon Weisman
93 - I think just the part about whether Lofton has any trade value.
2006-08-08 12:03:08
97.   screwballin
92 Jon's post above seems to show that he's league average. So, not holding us back, but not pushing us forward.

And that only addresses offense. Had Lofton missed the season, I don't think we would have had much trouble finding a player of league average offensive skills and better defense.

2006-08-08 12:03:15
98.   ToyCannon
When Lofton was signed Kemp had never even played AA ball and no one thought he'd be a factor in the major leagues in 2006. NO ONE

Repko? Please

So who is that stud prospect CF that was stunted when Lofton signed his one year deal?

2006-08-08 12:03:58
99.   Linkmeister
Does anyone have a clue as to how Prime Ticket/KCAL split up the telecasts? For the second time in a week I'm not getting to see Maddux in a Dodgers uniform because Prime Ticket is NOT showing the game today.
2006-08-08 12:04:02
100.   bluetahoe
so again, wrong about what?

About making Kenny Lofton out to be worse than he really is.

Lets see. kenny has about 18 SB's and he's been caught 3 times(?) 18-3=15.

Why not add 15 bases to his total bases, and recalcualte his OPS then.

Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2006-08-08 12:04:25
101.   Jacob L
All right, I'll entertain some of this "Dodgers shot at the WS this year" talk . . .

IF we get to the playoffs, it seems to me that there are 2 NL teams that are clearly better than the Dodgers - NY and StL. Given a little luck, and a hot team in October, I think we could get through one of those teams, but not both. I also don't think that that scenario (playing one of the two) is possible unless one of the big 2 is upset in a first round series, or the Cards fail to win the Central. The Mets will automatically play the WC winner because it won't be from their divsion, and they'll have the best record.

Maybe the best scenario for us is to win the WC and get the Mets in the short series and hope that StL is upset. In any case, lotsa luck, and getting there is no done deal.

2006-08-08 12:04:57
102.   MartinBillingsley31
I think just the part about whether Lofton has any trade value.

By all means i'm no expert on trade value, but i'm skeptical about that he doesn't.
He's been traded a billion times before and is putting up ops numbers about the same as he has in recent years, excluding last season's (what i call fluke season).

2006-08-08 12:04:59
103.   RELX
We're on a 10-game winning streak, but, hey, Kenny Lofton...
2006-08-08 12:05:20
104.   ToyCannon
97
Why don't you peruse the rosters and find one if it is so easy. Boston traded the best 3b prospect in baseball for a little better then league average CF in Coco Crisp.
2006-08-08 12:05:37
105.   bluetahoe
99 It's on extra innings. 10:10 Eastern. Game 3 I believe.
2006-08-08 12:07:19
106.   RELX
102.

I'll repost this--

Do you want Felix Rodriquez in exchange for Lofton? Or do you want Jose Hernandez back? Or Bobby Hill? Because those are the players that Lofton has been traded for over the past few seasons.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/loftoke01.shtml

2006-08-08 12:07:38
107.   bluetahoe
103 ............ continues to be a contributor.
2006-08-08 12:07:41
108.   Bluebleeder87
Does anyone have a clue as to how Prime Ticket/KCAL split up the telecasts? For the second time in a week I'm not getting to see Maddux in a Dodgers uniform because Prime Ticket is NOT showing the game today.

even though it's not shown on prime/fox the games on prime/fox air late at night some times.

2006-08-08 12:08:44
109.   Bob Timmermann
105

Extra Innings is going to be showing the Rockies broadcast however.

May God have mercy on your souls if you are watching that.

2006-08-08 12:09:19
110.   jasonungar05
In the 7th inning back on October 11 1988 there was no way you could convince me that Mike Scossia was going to take Doc Gooden deep. All numbers would say he wouldn't but he did. Gooden had like 9 ks, 2 hits and was filthy thru 7. Scoc had like 3 HR all season. And then he went yard and we won the game.

In other words I am with those who say, just get us there and let's see what happens.

2006-08-08 12:09:54
111.   Jacob L
101 Answering my own post . . .

If the WC winner (say the Reds) has a better record than the NL west winner, does the NL west winner then play the Mets?

2006-08-08 12:10:12
112.   Greg S
103.
Exactly. That darn Lofton is holding us back from winning 11 out of 10. Seriously, this is a slow news day arument. Kenny's being Kenny. He's not hurting anybody. Leave him alone.
2006-08-08 12:10:39
113.   bluetahoe
106 Maybe he wanted to see Cruz play everyday. Or maybe he wanted Kemp to go through his growing pains at the major league level. Maybe he didn't want Bradley traded. I can't figure it out either.
2006-08-08 12:12:37
114.   bluetahoe
109 - I don't think they are so bad.

The ones I can't stand are Grace/Brenneman.
I don't care for the Giants broadcasters either.

2006-08-08 12:13:29
115.   regfairfield
113 Yeah, all those things are really unreasonable.
2006-08-08 12:13:54
116.   bluetahoe
111. no. the Reds can not play the Cards in the 1st round.
2006-08-08 12:15:06
117.   Penarol1916
104. I believe you are overstating things here. Marte's value seemed to drop last season, I don't think anyone had him rated ahead of Alex Gordon as the best 3b prospect.

On a different note. John Sickel's minor league sight has an interesting discussion on Betemit. It seems like most of the prospect guys love him and think Colletti ripped off the Braves.

2006-08-08 12:16:11
118.   ToyCannon
Would have loved to read the negative vibes this board would have generated in 1988 in August. 10 game streak and still picking on players. If not players then chances of winning. If not our chances then management. If not management then broadcasters. If not broadcasters then journalists. Hard group to make happy.
2006-08-08 12:16:56
119.   bluetahoe
115 - Cruz playing everyday against righties. Now that's just wrong.

Kemp - how could anyone know before the season he was going to hammer ML pitching for about a month?

Bradley - C'mon. Imagine if we kept Bradley. Bradley's been hurt half the season and we wouldn't have Ethier. We'd be 15 below .500 right now if that trade wasn't made.

I don't see how these 3 examples justify Kenny bashing.

2006-08-08 12:17:17
120.   Midwest Blue
109 Tips to enjoy tonight's game:
1) Get a loan of $150
2) Subscribe to EXTRA INNINGS
3) Turn the volume...DOWN.
4) Enjoy

or alternately

4) Continue to rant about the merits a a so-so outfielder who won't be back next year anyway.

2006-08-08 12:17:51
121.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
Re: 70

It's amusing that this post didn't get more attention.

As for Lofton taking away playing time for kids, I think Grady's doing just fine. Kemp IIRC was no great defender in CF, and he probably needs more seasoning anyhow. There's no sense in burning through all his service time before he's truly ready. And while Lofton's defense is dreadful, Kemp's according to Rate2 the last time I checked was even worse. He needs to work on his defense in AAA. And Repko, of course, was on the DL for the longest time.

WWSH

2006-08-08 12:18:56
122.   Xeifrank
Yeah, Kenny is being Kenny but should he be getting more at bats than Drew, Kent and Ethier? For every slot in the lineup you drop, you lose 18 plate appearances over a full season. For example if Lofton hit 2nd for the whole year and Martin 8th (I know, Lofton doesn't play in every game), you are looking at 108 more plate appearances. Good or bad, you make the call.
vr, Xei
2006-08-08 12:20:35
123.   natepurcell
If I was on another planet for the last 3 weeks or so and the first thing i did when i came back was check DT comments sections on updates on the dodgers, I would have a hard time believing we are in the middle of a 10 game winning streak.

the negativity here right now with some people is remarkable. enjoy the moment guys!

2006-08-08 12:21:09
124.   regfairfield
119 Cruz is worse against righties in his career, but he still has a .770 OPS, so I think he'd bounce back to something fairly respectable. Plus he has the ability to actually catch the ball in the outfield, which is a big plus.

Thanks to his defense and empty batting average, Lofton has been worth 1.6 wins over replacement this year, I don't fault someone for wanting better.

2006-08-08 12:21:52
125.   Bob Timmermann
111
The sidebar on the Griddle has the playoff pairings as they would be if the season ended today.

For the AL, I had to put up two different scenarios since the wild card would be either the White Sox or the Red Sox and the White Sox can't play the Tigers in the Division Series.

But in the NL, the wild card spot is shared by the Dodgers and Reds and both can play the Mets, so it's a little simpler. It's not likely that the wild card will come out of the NL East unless the Phillies get really hot. And the Phillies play the Mets a lot this month.

2006-08-08 12:21:54
126.   Jon Weisman
Okay, this conversation is getting way out of hand, way too hostile.

I am really in a tough spot here. I feel like I now have to come in and make peace on about a daily basis.

Some people seem to be offended if they are disagreed with, and out come the snide remarks. Agree to disagree, or disagree politely, has been thrown out the window.

I'm not up for policing the site this actively every day. So what's it going to be? Can everyone here make an extra effort to be nice? Or do I start banning people more aggressively, even people that are good citizens 90 percent of the time. Let me know what you prefer.

2006-08-08 12:22:57
127.   bhsportsguy
72 It was generally a four man rotation, Outfield starts during Kemp's stay in the majors. Ethier and Drew had 27 starts, Kemp and Lofton had 26 and Cruz had 14. My numbers could be off a little bit, clearly it was Cruz who did not play a lot, sometime towards the later part of Kemp's stay, the outfield of Ethier, Lofton and Drew became the preferred outfield.

In the end, Lofton has a one year deal, Kemp has done a good job of working on pitch recognition and he will certainly be up in September.

Kemp and to a lesser degree Cruz, were the utility outfielders, both making starts at various spots, while the other three played LF (Ethier), CF (Lofton) and RF (Drew).

2006-08-08 12:23:08
128.   natepurcell
about the Gameday thing... i agree to some extent. I mean for me, it would be hard to have this kind of emotional attachment to the dodgers if i couldn't see most of their games. If i had to be stuck watching gameday for the majority of the time, i think i would become increasing uninterested because I know i would be missing out on so much.
2006-08-08 12:24:06
129.   Jon Weisman
You are still allowed to criticize the team while it's on a winning streak, just like you were allowed to have hopes for the team when it was losing. That's beside the point. It's not about being negative about the team. It's about being negative to each other. It has to stop now.
2006-08-08 12:26:20
130.   MartinBillingsley31
Someone was saying a week or so ago that it seems like izturis always gets a pass from some people even tho its obvious that he can't hit the side of a barn or as he put it couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat.
I think the same can be said of lofton (not that he can't hit or put up a decent obp) but for other reasons.
Lofton gets a pass from some people the same way izturis did.
It must be the saber vs old fashioned debate.
2006-08-08 12:27:25
131.   ToyCannon
104
Gordon had yet to play a single professional game before this season. Sure Gordon has leapfrogged him now but that has nothing to do with the deal at the time. Marte was the 2005 number one BP prospect. Numero Uno

My point still stands, show me how easy it is to find a league average CF as others have said it is. We could have had Corey Patterson for a song but the noise level directed at Ned if he'd taken that gamble would have made the Baez trade look like childs play.
Matos - Nada
Damon - unavailable
Crisp - cost you a top prospect
Wells - unavailable
Balldelli- hurt
Gathright - cost you a top prospect and he's lousy
Rowand - cost you a Thome
Hunter - 10 million
Granderson - unavailable
DeJesus - unavailable
B Anderson - yuck
Erstad- yuck
Kostay - expensive and is he really better then Lofton?
Figgins - unavailable
J Reed - yuck
Gary Mathews Junior - the best deal of the bunch but again DT posters would have cried like crazy if we'd planned on him being our starting CF.

Done with the American, I expect the same holds true for the NL. Good Centerfielders are not falling off trees which is why if Matt Kemp can play the position were that much better off then our competition.

2006-08-08 12:28:33
132.   bluetahoe
128 In 2003 I became aware of extra innings. Probably had something to do with me moving and the new cable company offered it. My addiction to the Dodgers has gotten so much worse since I could start watching most all the games. Sometimes I try to go to bed but I can't sleep because I know they are on.
2006-08-08 12:29:11
133.   Andrew Shimmin
70- The simple formula for Runs Created isn't anything like that. If you're creating a new statistic, you might think about calling it by a name that isn't the same as another one.
2006-08-08 12:29:11
134.   natepurcell
131

moral of the rant: grow your own! :)

2006-08-08 12:34:21
135.   gibsonhobbs88
123-I agree. How many 10 game win streaks have the Dodgers been on in the last decade? Enjoy the ride while it's going good. I know this team is streaky and shows signs of inconsistency but that is part of the deal when you have a lot of young kids up for the first time. As for taking a shot at the playoffs, go for it as even missing the playoffs or a loss in the playoffs will get some of these youngsters a taste of the pressures of a pennant race and playoff pressure that they can benefit from in future years.
2006-08-08 12:34:58
136.   MartinBillingsley31
126

I hear ya.
I'll bow out.
Sorry.

2006-08-08 12:35:25
137.   bigcpa
OT- Do any of you have a hookup for Cubs tickets? I'm heading out there next month. Thanks.
2006-08-08 12:36:44
138.   bhsportsguy
I never thought DT would be like work but the similarity is that this has to be a place where people can express their opinions and not become defensive when being challenged or go for personal attacks if that opinion is not supported by facts.

That is how I view work, unless you can be frank and not hurt by critiques, you better find something that you will never screw up in.

Same thing here, I could say something like based on the run differentials (Runs scored vs. Runs allowed), the Dodgers had underachieved all here and that perhaps we are finally seeing performance match their stats (actually I thank Rob Neyer for saying something similar today in his chat).

Someone could challenge this by saying that the Dodgers have a horrible record in close games and teams with winning records and they piled up their runs during this streak against poor teams.

Both are true and both have statistical backup.

And I could respond to that and go back and forth. But the exchange has to be civil or else what is the point of spending time here.

I hope we can all enjoy the team, the season and this site, but we have to stop this bickering.

2006-08-08 12:36:57
139.   regfairfield
131 If we got Corey Patterson for nothing, I wouldn't have been that unhappy. The team needed power, so it's worth a shot.

Kotsay is way better than Lofton since he can catch the ball. Other than that, I pretty much agree, except the Dodgers had other options:

Move Drew to center
Keep Bradley

Now, keeping Bradley in hindsight is a terrible idea, but given how hard it is to find a good centerfielder, holding on to him certainly isn't a bad idea. Moving Drew to center a getting someone like Craig Wilson seems like a much better plan.

2006-08-08 12:38:46
140.   Marty
I'll try to be nice when I say this.

The idea that if you think you won't be winning the world series means you must sell and not try to make the playoffs is, there's no nice word to say, it's nonsense. There's just too much money involved in playoff shares, playoff ticket sales, playoff concession sales, playoff tv income, etc.

No one on this board would ever think that way if they were actually running a team. They'd be fired before thay had a chance to defend themselves.

2006-08-08 12:39:19
141.   GoBears
We'd be 15 below .500 right now if that trade wasn't made

So the difference between Ethier and Bradley is 16 games (prorated to 23 for a full season)?
Wow, apparently Ethier is Babe Ruth and Bradley is Mario Mendoza.

This is the sort of pulling-numbers-out-of-the-sky that makes meaningful discussion impossible.

2006-08-08 12:39:57
142.   GoBears
Look, lots and lots of things are possible. The '88 Dodger title was (obviously) possible. But some things are much more likely than others. In a single AB/game/series, the "on paper" expectations are less likely to be efficient predictors than in the long run, but that doesn't make them meaningless.

Any team not already mathematically eliminated still has a chance to win the WS this year. But any GM or manager who bases his decisions on "well, anything can happen, so who's to say...." is probably doing a disservice.

So all of these examples of "miracles" from the past, while nice as nostalgia, are lousy guides to the future.

2006-08-08 12:39:59
143.   Marty
137 My company owns the Cubs and I can't get tickets :)
2006-08-08 12:40:39
144.   GoBears
I think MB's stance on Lofton has been caricatured unfairly. I agree that a Lofton/Cruz platoon would have been a much better use of resources than Lofton alone. Better on offense and defense. Once Kemp came up and exploded, a strict platoon there would have been better as well, though perhaps not as good for Kemp's development as sending him back down to play full time.

To say that Lofton is a league-average hitter with horrible defense and an important defensive position is perfectly consistent with saying that he's hurting the team by playing so much (especially if it's true that he's better with more rest).

But this is all just silly semantic one-upsmanship. Because MB's OTHER mantra is much more important, namely "Pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching."

On that, IFF Penny/Lowe/Maddux pitch like they have in the last 2 weeks, then I agree that the Dodgers have a decent shot at winning a playoff series. But it's foolish to expect that their average performance over the next 2 months can stay at the level of their season-best performance over the past 2 weeks. They'll regress some, and the Dodgers will start losing as often as they win. That might be enough to win the division.

2006-08-08 12:40:54
145.   GoBears
So far, the only trade that has really turned my crank has been the Guzman for Lugo trade. This was clearly prospect-for-rental, and it was a superfluous rental. I just don't see the point, unless the plan was to get Lugo in the fold and then trade Furcal or Kent for a real starting pitcher in the off-season.
2006-08-08 12:41:10
146.   Penarol1916
137. What do you mean by hook up? What dates are you in town. I know some people with Cubs tickets in September that would sell them for face value for some games.
2006-08-08 12:43:16
147.   DXMachina
128 I mean for me, it would be hard to have this kind of emotional attachment to the dodgers if i couldn't see most of their games.

It's weird. I formed my attachment to the Dodgers while living in New Jersey in 1961, when there wasn't even a National League team in New York. The only local TV games were the Yankees (although admittedly it was a great season to be watching them). The only time I've ever seen more than a handful of regular season games in a given season were the years when I had cable and the Braves were still in the NL West. That's why I want them to make the playoffs even if the likelihood of their making the WS is low. I'll at least get to see some games on TV.

2006-08-08 12:52:07
148.   Midwest Blue
146 Penarol, if that's true, I'm interested in tix for when the D's come to town (Sept. 12-14). That may be when bigcpa wants them as well and so I am more than willing to share.
2006-08-08 12:53:34
149.   bhsportsguy
133 I was wrong, sorry, the correct term is Runs Produced and the formula for that is certainly not the formula for Runs Created, so I apologize for that error.
2006-08-08 12:55:58
150.   RELX
147, 128.

Growing up a Dodgers fan in NYC in the 1980's, my main connection to the team was Sports Phone (976-1313). They would update every fifteen minutes, and during the summer, I would stay up late, watching Star Trek and The Twillight Zone on our small B&W TV set, calling Sports Phone every quarter of an hour. It was wonderful! (Until the day my father looked at the phone bill and wondered why our family made more phone calls between the hours of 11PM-7AM then we did during the entire rest of the day!)

Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2006-08-08 12:56:12
151.   Penarol1916
148. From the people I know, there were only two available for the game on the 13th, which I snagged for my daughter and me.

If you were a client of Northern Trust's, I could probably get you into our box for one of those games.

2006-08-08 12:57:27
152.   Bob Timmermann
150

That's like Lisa Simpson calling the Cory Hotline all the time.

I wonder if that episode makes sense to younger people today.

2006-08-08 12:59:17
153.   bhsportsguy
152 Wouldn't that have been "Corey?"

Someone call a librarian.

2006-08-08 13:02:02
154.   Andrew Shimmin
I ran up a triple digit phone number calling Bellevue, Washington, where the Sierra On-Line BBS was. My allowance was five dollars a week. It took me a very long time to pay my parents back.
2006-08-08 13:04:31
155.   Marty
154 King's Quest??
2006-08-08 13:05:11
156.   Vaudeville Villain
GoBears with a series of solid posts.

I'll just add that it's not my opinion that Kenny Lofton is that big a deal, either way.

Still, it's reasonable to expect better considering CF is a position where good defense is fairly key, we came into the season with everyone basically knowing that we would not be a powerful team, yet picked up Lofton anyway, who adds no power.

Again, not a huge deal, but it's not out of the question to be a little wistful for a better option.

2006-08-08 13:06:44
157.   Bluebleeder87
I hope we can all enjoy the team, the season and this site, but we have to stop this bickering.

looking from a far the bickering is pretty cool.

but I see you're point.

2006-08-08 13:06:54
158.   Andrew Shimmin
155- I liked the Police Quests. Ooh! And the Space Quests. Kings Quest never did it for me.
2006-08-08 13:07:30
159.   Marty
I had a 386sx 20 mh PC back in 1990-1991 with windows 3.1 on it (oooooohhh!). I heard about this neat online service called CompuServe that had games on it to download. So I dialed up with my 14.4 modem and started playing around for a few hours. The next month I got a $96 bill and that was it for Compuserve.
2006-08-08 13:07:53
160.   Brad Bogner
Here's some things that rhyme with Corey. Laurie....story.....allegory...
2006-08-08 13:07:58
161.   gibsonhobbs88
142 - Yes, great stories happen every so often. Matchups should the Dodgers reach the playoffs would be critical. I agree with the poster that facing the Mets first might benefit the Blue as even though the Mets are a better balanced team than the Cards right now, the Dodgers seem to match up with the Mets better than the Cards. Even though playoffs are a different animal, i.e. (Dodgers were 1-10 against the Mets in the 88 regular season but won the playoff series)the Dodgers futility against the Cards this year seemed as much mental as anything. They had chances to win two games in St. Louis but failed to get a clutch hit or Sac fly that could have won 1 or 2 games.
2006-08-08 13:08:06
162.   Marty
Leisure Suit Larry!
2006-08-08 13:08:51
163.   Andrew Shimmin
Also, since I was twelve, I was pretty sneakily trying to get Leisure Suit Larry screen caps.
2006-08-08 13:09:17
164.   bluetahoe
141

It's my opinion that Ethier + Lofton = 8 more wins at this stage in the season than a half a season of Milton Bradley, at this point.

Would I trade Bradley for Lofton straight up right now? YES No brainer.

2006-08-08 13:11:37
165.   screwballin
Sorry for any part I played in the ruckus. I wouldn't have thought it controversial to suggest that Lofton is a replaceable part. I'm not a Lofton hater, I just can't get too riled up over a league-average player.

I know I don't post often, but I have read this site and most comments almost daily for over a year now. I would love to see DT become a place where one can take a strong position and face dissent that might be equally strong, but would above all be civil. We should all act like this is one big cocktail party, and make your arguments accordingly. Chances are, no one would get shouted down for wanting to trade Lofton if we were all huddled around a keg.

2006-08-08 13:12:30
166.   Andrew Shimmin
162- Exactly! Never worked out, for me, but that's probably just as well. I expect I'd have been disappointed. Really, nothing could be as cool as I thought LSL would have been.
2006-08-08 13:14:47
167.   JoeyP
I'd still rather have Milton Bradley than Lofton/Ethier, no matter how good of season Ethier is having.

Bradley's an .830+ OPS'ing CF'er that also plays great defense.

If Ethier continues to play a corner OF position, Bradley will be more valuable in the coming seasons strictly bc he plays CF, and Ethier doesnt.

Smart teams do not dump valuable commodities. A CF'er, that does what Bradley does, is rare and valuable.

Ethier, while having a great season, is still a corner OF'er and its much easier to find those types of guys to put up similar numbers.

2006-08-08 13:14:59
168.   Marty
LLL was pretty lame. sexual teases and lousy game play. In fact most of Sierra's lineup was not that good. Luckily I found out about things like Doom and Quake and never looked back.
2006-08-08 13:16:40
169.   bhsportsguy
157 I think the point is that Jon doesn't always want to tune in here and see personal attacks and I agree with that view.

I am sure that we will continue to hear that the Dodgers wanted Lugo because they felt they needed a MLB replacement level player because they have not had a moment this year when all 4 projected starters in the infield have been completely healthy.

If they reach that point with Nomar, Jeff, Raffy and Wilson, then they get a problem that Ned will like and Grady will have to deal with but until that day comes, that will be the mantra from the Front office.

2006-08-08 13:18:50
170.   JoeyP
I'll admit that I'm a little harder on Lofton, bc I know the Dodgers CF'er before him, and its just something KLoft cant live up to.

Kemp might be able to make me forget Bradley. I hope so.

Lofton doesnt do it.
Ethier doesnt do it either (mainly bc he's a corner guy and those guys are easier to find).

2006-08-08 13:18:54
171.   Andrew Shimmin
The Front Page Sports games were Sierra, too, weren't they? I had both the baseball and football iterations. Everything Reg said about baseball video games yesterday applies to FPS Baseball, but it was still awesome. You could edit the players names, and numbers to have real teams! Kids today are pampered. We had to work to make Mike Gallego, Mike Gallego.
2006-08-08 13:21:20
172.   bluetahoe
Bradley's above average when he's out there.

I'd still go with Andre Ethier. The kids a stud and right now he's better than Milton Bradley.

2006-08-08 13:22:48
173.   Telemachos
Greatest computer baseball game ever: Earl Weaver Baseball.

Perfect balance between stats, easy action, quick-playing, could play versus a friend, could make your own parks/teams/players, saved stats that you could print out, plus it had that certain intangible something that made each player feel... well, a real individual person.

2006-08-08 13:24:50
174.   bluetahoe
Milton Bradley has a career OPS of .783.

In 141 games for the Dodgers in 2004 he OPS'd .786.

In 75 games for the Dodgers in 2005 he OPS'd .835.

Milton Bradley wasn't overly-exceptional as a Dodger.

2006-08-08 13:24:56
175.   Xeifrank
Can Drew still play a good CF? I know that's where he wanted to play last year.
vr, Xei
2006-08-08 13:24:58
176.   JoeyP
Right now Ethier has inflated stats due to odd amount of luck. Once he regresses, he'll at best be lets say an .850 OPS LF'er. Now thats good, but finding a CF'er that does that is much more difficult. Dodgers had one, let him go.

Hopefully Kemp fixes that mis-evaluation of talent.

Of course, Bradley might be a free agent at the end of the year, so hopefully the Dodgers sign him back. Wouldnt that be something? Use Bradley to get Ethier, and then get Bradley back the very next season. Thats the type of savvy move that Ned can make to win back some support.

2006-08-08 13:26:11
177.   bigcpa
151 I'm going to the Thurs 9/14 game. Thanks for the reply. And by "hookup" I don't mean a lady escort. I'm hoping to get something good for around face. Stubhub is $75/seat for infield boxes.
2006-08-08 13:26:20
178.   Suffering Bruin
129 Okay, that cuts it. Lecture time from SB. But first, a digression.

Now that I'm on summer vacation and not teaching (big smile), I've been spending oodles of time with the wife and kid and having a blast. I've been letting loose with the appetite, being careless with my time and body... it's summer! And I've been a little loose with the salty language. Now, when my son screws up with the language (very rare), we have a deal that we take something away from him. If it's a small screw up, the cookies go. If it's bigger than that, the video games followed by a scene that would embarass Carmen. Anywho... I cursed today in the car while talking to the wife and the kid caught me. It was an off-hand "F" bomb but from the silence in the backseat, I knew I was busted and it was time to punish dad. My three favorite things this summer have been television, internet and computer chess (which I play horribly, by the by). I told him to pick one and what does the little so-and-so come up with?

"Dad? No Dodgers today! And no Greg Maddux for you!"

The wife added, helpfully, that maybe next time I'll think about not cursing.

So... why this story? Because of post 129. Let's say you want to go negative on a guy because he disagrees with your take on the sport of baseball and on the Dodgers specifically. Let's say, in spite of many pleas from the site coordinator, you just can't keep it in check and you click "submit" and off it goes. Now, let's say your punishment for ignoring the umpteenth warning about being negative was suspension or banishment from the site. We haven't gotten to that point but please, y'all, you think it's not being considered?

It's not about all of you. Heck, it's not nearly about most of you. But to some of of you, if you want to talk baseball with smart, interesting people who happen to be funny and incisive in their comments this is the place. If you want flame wars (or even flame skirmishes) there are a multitude of sites to visit.

It's not about being negative about the team. It's about being negative to each other. It has to stop now.

See? We don't need a set of rules on the sidebar. The above is crystal clear. If you can't abide by it, I'm sorry, but I won't miss you.

End of lecture.

2006-08-08 13:26:56
179.   Xeifrank
176. it's true that his BABIP could and probably will regress. Keep in mind also that he is still young and hasn't reached his peak years. vr, Xei
2006-08-08 13:27:15
180.   bhsportsguy
170 The problem with Bradley is that aside from 2004 (where he had some other issues) he has never come close to playing a full season.

Now, of course all of his personality issues always cloud that and are used for reasons of why teams move him but if you just look at the stats, he does not have a good record.

There is no question about his talent but until he does again for a 130 games or more, I'm not sure of the investment in him.

Interestingly, J.D. Drew gets more heat about his injuries but Bradley does have at least a similar if not less reliable history.

On the other comment about LFs, again, outside of 2004 and the years that Sheffeld patrolled that area 1999-2001, the Dodgers have had problems in LF, last year was a disaster, so while I agree in principle that it should be easier to find corner outfielders, that is not something the Dodgers have proven over time.

2006-08-08 13:28:39
181.   screwballin
142 I think the point, though, is that once you GET to the playoffs, anything can happen. How many times in recent memory was the WS Champion actually the favorite? Not the White Sox. Or the Red Sox. Or the Marlins, Angels or Arizona.

We have seen firsthand how tough it can be to even get a sniff of the Series. I think we've got one now, and we should inhale as deeply as we can.

(wow, that metaphor sucked.)

2006-08-08 13:29:11
182.   Marty
In a FOX sports story (Thanks to Rob at 6-4-2):

In a divorce petition filed in late June, Paul Lo Duca's estranged wife accused the Mets' catcher of infidelity. His passion for horses has caused him to wrack up heavy gambling debts, according to a report in the New York Daily News.

Lo Duca brushed off the allegations made by 34-year-old Sonia Lo Duca — a former Playboy model — and spent a carefree day at Saratoga Race Track.

2006-08-08 13:30:50
183.   s choir
126

The rules of this site should be spelled out clearly, and anyone who violates them should be banned for some length of time. If the rules are not posted, however, it makes no sense, nor is it fair, to ban people who treat the site well 90% of the time.

2006-08-08 13:32:14
184.   carmiguel
Presumably Repko is the top outfield sub.
So it comes down to Loney vs. Lugo if a second outfield substitution is needed in a given game.

Loney did see some time in left field in Vegas, but not a lot; Lugo has not played the outfield for several seasons but is capable.

This is a three-week situation, as Kemp will be up on Sept. 1, if not earlier.

2006-08-08 13:32:20
185.   JoeyP
Teams cant be scared off by injuries. Too much difference making talent slips through the cracks when that happens.

Give me a guy that is capable of making a difference, and then I'll hope he's healthy. Not the guy thats always healthy, but doesnt make a difference.

And Ethier's 1 HBP to his wrist away from being Werth. So with injuries, you never know.

But injuries shouldnt preclude a team from signing a difference making player. Look at the A's. Tell them Frank Thomas doesnt make a difference. Tell them that Jason Kendall does. One's had injuries, the other is an everyday iron man...However, the guy thats hurt sometimes still is a better guy to have on the team, rather than a guy like Kendall who plays everyday, but does nothing of consequence.

2006-08-08 13:33:46
186.   Telemachos
Thats the type of savvy move that Ned can make to win back some support.

I don't think Ned needs to win back support at all -- his moves have generally been applauded by baseball pundits, the fans, and Dodger ownership. Obviously people are happy because the team is winning right now, and things could change, but the only complaints I'm hearing are either from more stat-oriented people (here on DT or elsewhere on the web) and crazy ones like trading Izturis was a terrible move.

Given the fact that Ethier has had a tremendously good year -- far more than anyone expected -- also means that I think you're in the strong minority to prefer Bradley at this point. Ethier may be lucky to this point, but until he goes into a tailspin (and Bradley continues his red-hot hitting), I think you're tilting at windmills, to some degree.

2006-08-08 13:33:48
187.   bluetahoe
Thats the type of savvy move that Ned can make to win back some support.

I'd say less than 15% of Dodger fans want Bradley back. I have no statistical evidence to back up my claim. Just a hunch. I feel Neddie would lose support if he brought Milton back next season. Actually, I'm sure of it.

2006-08-08 13:33:49
188.   still bevens
168 Ah yes, but you forget there's like 6 years or so in between the text based adventure game with graphics and the first person shooter. When I was younger it was Sierra games or nothing. Then came Lucasarts games like Monkey Island, Day of the Tentacle etc and Sierra kinda got left in the dust. But at the time, there was nothing better IMO.
2006-08-08 13:38:18
189.   Marty
188 You're right. I basically didn't play games for awhile. I never tries any of the LucasArts games.
2006-08-08 13:38:33
190.   Marty
tried
2006-08-08 13:39:26
191.   Uncle Miltie
187- I'm a huge Bradley and I don't want him back. He's been great in Oakland and seems to be having a great time. I also think he's better off playing in the AL. Next year, I expect him to play 140+ games. Hopefully Macha will learn that Bradley needs to be DH'ed once a week. I want what's best for the Dodgers and Bradley, and that's staying in Oakland.
2006-08-08 13:42:16
192.   Steve
I don't know, SB. That Gameday/People Who Watch Games divide may be just one bridge too far.
2006-08-08 13:45:19
193.   bhsportsguy
186 JoeyP meant that Ned could win back his support, its doubtful he sees himself speaking for the masses or even the majority of this site.
2006-08-08 13:45:31
194.   DXMachina
173 I totally agree about Earl Weaver Baseball. The sad thing is that EWB demonstrated the right way to do computer baseball, but none of the game companies seem to understand it anymore.

I really wanted to like the FPS Baseball games, but when I discovered that its system made walks totally random events, I discarded it.

2006-08-08 13:46:31
195.   Daniel Zappala
178 Suffering Bruin, that was awesome. I hope you enjoy your summer break from teaching. Spend some quality time with your son today instead of watching Greg Maddux!
2006-08-08 13:46:41
196.   Inside Baseball
178 Spoken like a true teacher. Enjoyed your comment SB, sorry for you suffering tonight. What time does your son go to bed? Tivo?
2006-08-08 13:46:54
197.   JoeyP
Bradley had a great time in LA, at least in 2004. Of course, his comments about "All the people I liked in LA were either traded or fired" probably means he's not coming back.

If you were a client of Northern Trust's, I could probably get you into our box for one of those games.

I interviewed with them in January, at their location right off Canal Street. I was impressed. Looks like a really nice place to work. I loved their building and location. Really easy access.

2006-08-08 13:47:03
198.   Bob Timmermann
"Hi, you've reached the Corey hot-line. $4.95 a minute. Here are some
words that rhyme with Corey: Gory. Story. Allegory. Montessori."
2006-08-08 13:47:40
199.   Jon Weisman
150 - I did that if I was out of town on family vacation. I even had a 976-1313 promotional poster in my bedroom.
2006-08-08 13:48:33
200.   GoBears
182 I'm good friends with a guy who works at a company that handles betting on horse-racing. He told me a while ago that Lo Duca (and his father) are among their biggest clients. Didn't tell me anything about winning or losing, and I didn't care enough to ask, but that part of the Fox story rings true, at least.

181 Anything can happen, but only one thing will happen. Not every possible outcome has a high probability of occurring, or anything approaching an equal probability.

In 1988, an exceedingly unlikely series of events took place, resulting in a happy outcome for the likes of us. But planning to win the lottery is bad management.

The line used to be that the NL West is so bad (or at least, so evenly matched) that the Dodgers might as well go for it, and get into the playoffs. That was the logic I objected to when it was used to justify things like Guzman for Lugo (I don't necessarily mean here, but in general).

But that line has morphed in the last few weeks, replacing "NL West" with "NL." If that's correct, if one really thinks that getting into the playoffs means a reasonable (not to say "even") chance of making the WS, where it's first to 4, then the argument for short-term help over planning for the future is stronger.

But that leaves me with 2 questions.

1. Do we really believe that there aren't elite teams in the NL? The Mets and Cardinals spring to mind, but I'm willing to listen to arguments that they're really no better (or not much better) than the Dodgers.

2. In what way is Lugo short-term help? He's better than Izturis - we know that from their track records. But as someone pointed out, he might as well be Izturis so far. Same number, same offense, same defense. Just not as cuddly. More to the point, just like Izturis, he's extraneous.

The latest tally:

Betemit/Aybar
Lugo/Izturis
Maddux/Guzman

The last one is the one that jumps out at you as a typical short-term deadline deal. I'm hopeful that it works out well.

The other changes have been:

Loney up, Cruz out.
Ledee back, then out.
Repko up, Baez gone.
Dessens in, Odalis out.

In general, I'd call those a net improvement on offense and pitching, to get rid of the Odalis horror show, and to get Loney up here, but only if he or Lugo really can take some of Lofton's ABs away.

Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2006-08-08 13:50:24
201.   Penarol1916
177. I'll ask one guy who got me some free Dodger/Cub tickets last year when he gets back into town later this week.
2006-08-08 13:51:44
202.   Telemachos
194 From a little poking around, I see that Eddie Dombrower -- who created EWB -- has some freeware version of it available on the internet. Since I don't have a PC running near me (I'm Mac-based and don't have Boot Camp installed at home yet), I'm not sure how well it plays... but it looks like his site will be getting a message board soon, and that the game may still be viable.

Baseball games today are way too complicated, IMHO. I enjoy the spiffy graphics and the ability to play through seasons and career mode, but there was a simplicity and elegance to EWB that has never been replicated. If someone build a new PC/console game with the ease of EWB combined with today's graphics and career mode, that would be so insanely awesome my head might explode.

At the very least I would, sight unseen, buy the required console simply to play that (highly theoretical and unlikely) game.

2006-08-08 13:52:24
203.   GoBears
I think you're tilting at windmills, to some degree.

I liked this line. But actually, as mere fans, that's all any of us are doing. It's not like anything we say here will affect anything the Dodgers do.

You know, it's not like any of us is Bill Plaschke...

2006-08-08 13:53:56
204.   bhsportsguy
Some hope Joey, Kemp's minor league numbers are certainly comparable if not a little better than Milton's and if he continues his pitch regonition improvement maybe you will be able to look out to CF by next year if not this September.
2006-08-08 13:54:39
205.   Jon Weisman
183 - I am considering posting site rules. I don't post the rules of the site because a) warnings have usually sufficed in the past and b) I notice that other sites don't post rules. I fear that posting rules will come across as obnoxious on my part. But now I realize it probably isn't more obnoxious than what I'm doing right now.

In the meantime, anyone I'm thinking of suspending, short of the characters who come in here and post 20 profane messages in an hour, gets ample warning. There is no mystery about what the violation is. I think that's pretty fair.

If someone commits a crime only 10 percent of the time, I think that they are still subject to punishment.

I don't want to suspend anyone. But I'd rather have fewer commenters than see this place become a free-for-all. And what I see right now is some people making little effort to either debate in a professional way or turn the other cheek.

2006-08-08 13:56:14
206.   natepurcell
Give me a guy that is capable of making a difference, and then I'll hope he's healthy.

That is not a "logical" move at all. For being very risk-asserted, that is the type of high risk move that should not be made.

Too many high risk injury prone players on a team is playing russian roulette on having a successful season.

2006-08-08 13:57:39
207.   Midwest Blue
177, 201 -

If Penarol is able to make it happen and you have an extra ticket, I'd appreciate consideration (you're first in line though, since you asked first). I'm starting my search for tix in Chgo after I get back from California. I'm looking for tix for Aug 28-30 at DS now.

2006-08-08 13:58:16
208.   DXMachina
202 If someone build a new PC/console game with the ease of EWB combined with today's graphics and career mode, that would be so insanely awesome my head might explode.

Heh. That's pretty much the mission statement for my search for the perfect computer baseball game. High Heat is about as close as it gets, but even that is dated now.

I'll have to look for Dombrower's site. I had EWB for the Amiga, and I can still here the voicebox phonetically sounding out "Hen-er-y Ay-ron."

2006-08-08 14:00:08
209.   natepurcell
Sickels takes a look at Wilson Betemit

http://tinyurl.com/n8ym7

2006-08-08 14:01:09
210.   Telemachos
205 Jon, have you considered getting a couple of moderators to help you out? I'm not sure what the BT software supports, but it would relieve you of being the sole policeman.

208 I probably should have posted this in my earlier comment. Eddie Dombrower's site is:

http://www.bangbangplay.com/

2006-08-08 14:03:30
211.   Jon Weisman
210 - No, I haven't. I mean, not beyond the much appreciated efforts of people like Marty, Sam DC, Suffering Bruin and several others to help moderate.

I don't think the solution is more policemen. I think the solution is better behavior.

2006-08-08 14:03:32
212.   DXMachina
210 Thanks.
2006-08-08 14:05:25
213.   Jerry
I was going to echo #210's suggestion re moderators. I think giving a couple moderators limited banning & comment-editing powers might go a long way in keeping the site clean and keeping Jon's blood pressure down.
2006-08-08 14:08:54
214.   Terry A
I think we should bell the cat.

(Or perhaps just burnish it?

2006-08-08 14:09:14
215.   natepurcell
Twins promote another pitching phenom to the majors in Matt Garza. Liriano is still hurting and out indefinately with a sore elbow/forearm. Maybe Garza can provide a boost.
2006-08-08 14:10:13
216.   screwballin
202 I spent WAY too many hours on Earl Weaver Baseball. Friends and I created most of the Hall of Fame players and Negro Leagues greats, then would draft teams and play a season. You might have Cool Papa Bell leading off, Mays batting second, Gehrig third and Mike Schmidt batting cleanup. It played no small part in deepening my interest in baseball history.

And, FWIW, Lofton circa '94 would have been highly coveted on draft day.

2006-08-08 14:12:08
217.   GoBears
185 Well, there are injuries and there are injuries. Broken wrists on HBPs cannot be predicted. Guys with chronic knee or hamstring or elbow or back problems (etc), however, can be expected to miss games. Bradley is certainly one of the latter. Drew too, though he's been healthy this year (only missed 12 games, and most were just regular rest) against tough LHP.

For me, Bradley is too big an injury risk to spend a lot of money on, or block someone like Kemp. I agree that, before we got excited about Kemp, Drew to CF and go after a corner OF seemed like a much better idea than Lofton. In a way, Ethier's production (much better than we thought we'd get out of Werth/Cruz/Repko/Ledee) has made up for Lofton's mediocrity on offense (nothing makes up for dropped fly balls). So even if Ethier will regress, the point for 2006 is that it's all worked out pretty well for Colletti.

Pitching pitching pitching pitching pitching.

2006-08-08 14:14:02
218.   Howard Fox
126 Jon, sorry to say it, but you may have to be more aggressive in banning people...and make it public on this site when and who you are doing it to...

in reality...all you really have to do is do it once or twice, posters will see it could really happen, and they will behave...

kind of like in an office, occasionally you have to fire someone just to wake up everyone that they need to perform, that it's not a social club...

2006-08-08 14:14:55
219.   Penarol1916
209.
Beat you to it on post 117. The more I read about Betemit, the more I like that trade.
2006-08-08 14:15:44
220.   Telemachos
I don't think the solution is more policemen. I think the solution is better behavior.

Absolutely, the solution is better behavior. However, I think it's practically a given (from my personal experiences on other forums as they've grown in popularity) that with a steady increase of new people, there will be a big increase in "behavior problems" -- all sorts of them, from trolls to newbies who aren't familiar with the rules yet to old veterans sniping in frustation at the 10,000th time a question is asked, to genuine dislike between different posters erupting. Invariably, all the sites I've frequently started out with one or two "founders" who used to completely oversee their forums with a small group of very civilized posters. These young fora were self-policing (as DT is and has been) but with spurts in popularity, became impossible to keep as such -- not through any malicious intent, but simply through the increase in population.

DT is a small quiet country town where everyone knows each other and the sheriff doesn't need to do much aside from occasionally making sure someone who got drunk at the tavern makes it back home. But it's rapidly growing towards being a small city, in which case you absolutely will need "more policemen", despite all efforts to ask people to remain on good behavior.

I've moderated other forums and completely understand the frustation in having to deal with this sort of thing... but I also don't think that it's avoidable.

Maybe I'm just cynical when it comes to 'net communities though.

2006-08-08 14:17:00
221.   Telemachos
er, that should be "all the sites I've frequented".... that's what I get for publishing without proof-reading.
2006-08-08 14:17:55
222.   Jon Weisman
220 - You make some good points.
2006-08-08 14:23:17
223.   natepurcell
Beat you to it on post 117. The more I read about Betemit, the more I like that trade.

Oops, i guess i glossed over that one. Yea, reading the comments section, it seemed that alot of them really like Betemit and his future- especially his bat at 2b.

2006-08-08 14:23:39
224.   thinkblue0
I'm sure this was discussed yesterday but I'll ask anyway:

If Nomar comes back and Lofton continues to play CF, doesn't that make the Lugo trade pointless? I can't imagine we'd make that trade just to have Lugo ride the pine. I don't really HATE Lofton, but I'd much rather have him on the bench than Lugo or Betemit.

2006-08-08 14:25:39
225.   Gen3Blue
I hadn't consciously realized it until Jon said it, but I think Ledee's release could be a vote of confidance for Loney. I hope so. I admit I haven't had time to read today's comments, so I hope I'm not too redundant.
I also like the idea that Ethier's success may have instilled into management that youngsters and prospects could indeed have incredible value, with fan excitement and low payroll being "fringe" value on top of it all.
2006-08-08 14:28:06
226.   thinkblue0
225-

I don't know how I feel about it. I'm not real sad to see Ledee go, but I'd much rather see Loney get his AB's in AAA.

If Nomar ends up out for longer, maybe we can work him into some 1B and OF time...

2006-08-08 14:31:11
227.   bhsportsguy
224 I think the whole point of the trade was to have someone available to play everyday that could both play defense and provide some offense.

In the end, this very well maybe a deal that the fans point too as being a bad one but I just think the organization did not feel comfortable with either a AAA option or Izzy/Martinez/Saenz having to play everyday if Garciaparra and/or Kent were not available to play everyday.

I'm sure we will debate this and perhaps we will get some more rumblings from players not playing everyday if and when Garciaparra and Kent are out there everyday but that was always the most optimistic viewpoint and that was probably not the most prudent approach for the Dodgers to take a week ago.

2006-08-08 14:32:00
228.   Blu2
224 Yes but when Flanders had traded Izzy, he suddenly realized Martinez would be lonely on the bench with no infield buddy to talk to. For what it's worth, I think Lugo will get enough playing time because I expect Kent to go down again, maybe out for the year. Not what I'm pulling for, but what I expect...
2006-08-08 14:35:32
229.   bhsportsguy
One reason for their reluctance to send Loney back to AAA, I believe Vegas has only one series in Vegas this entire month. so while they are only a plane ride away, they are not as easily accessible in case of an injury.
2006-08-08 14:36:56
230.   Bluebleeder87
220

well you just went on my jealous list (great read) :o)

2006-08-08 14:38:12
231.   bhsportsguy
228 I actually would be more inclined to be worried about Nomar's knee. Nomar and Pujols, among others, have recovered from their oblique issues with treatment and rest and so assuming that Kent feels no more pain in the coming days, I think he should be okay for the rest of the year.
2006-08-08 14:43:15
232.   Icaros
...a 5-foot-1 reserve wearing glasses that one of my teammates called "even uglier than your last pair,"...

I may have to steal that one some day.

2006-08-08 14:43:20
233.   Bob Timmermann
DT is a small quiet country town where everyone knows each other and the sheriff doesn't need to do much aside from occasionally making sure someone who got drunk at the tavern makes it back home.

So who's our Otis? Who's Barney Fife? Who's Gomer Pyle? Who's Thelma Lou? Who's Aunt Bee? Who's Opie?

I've got dibs on Floyd the Barber.

2006-08-08 14:44:39
234.   trainwreck
I was on the 8th grade B-team.
2006-08-08 14:46:09
235.   Jon Weisman
233 - Dodger Thoughts + Floyd the barber

https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/10736.html

2006-08-08 14:48:32
236.   underdog
Wow, I'm kind of glad I was too busy at work to day to jump into the comments here 'til now. But, um, [in voice of Dr. Nick Riviera:] Hi everybody!

So long Ricky Ledee, I'll miss ya, and appreciate your pinch hits, but... won't miss you all that much. I am glad Loney's sticking around. So, they're going to be short a player for a few days until Nomar's back? That seems odd, but since Loney and Lugo can both play the OF in a pinch, I guess they're okay.

Did anyone try to ask Roy Smith a question in his chat today?

2006-08-08 14:50:19
237.   Terry A
233 - I want to be Leon, the little boy who always silently offers Barney a bite of his PB&J.
2006-08-08 14:51:59
238.   underdog
233 I guess I'm too late to get the choicest parts so I'll fancy myself as Sam Jones, played by the likable Ken Berry.
2006-08-08 15:01:22
239.   Gen3Blue
233 I want to be Earnest T. Bass.
At least if thats the hillbilly who used to throw pebbles at windows, then hide in the bushes and yell: " Miss Krump, Miss Krump, I love you; your my muther figure!"
Andy would search the woods for him, yelling Earnest Tehhh, Earnest Tay!
If not him, I want Howard the banker. That show had more good characters than everything that followed.
2006-08-08 15:02:41
240.   Andrew Shimmin
I want to be Earnest T. Bass, but that's probably not a great idea, today.
2006-08-08 15:03:34
241.   Gen3Blue
240 Great minds. Ehh!
2006-08-08 15:03:41
242.   Jon Weisman
Me as Andy Taylor:

"Stop fighting. Just stop fighting already. Mayberry should be better than this!! Waah!"

2006-08-08 15:03:46
243.   Andrew Shimmin
I did not see 239 before I posted. Honestly.
2006-08-08 15:05:25
244.   Andrew Shimmin
241- Just so.
2006-08-08 15:05:52
245.   Gen3Blue
243 True: they both appeared almost simultaneously here.
2006-08-08 15:07:14
246.   bhsportsguy
I'll be the old man that Burt Mustin always played. He was more recognizable as the fire captain in Leave it to Beaver.

Or just one of those non-talking brothers who played in that bluegrass band, maybe the one who smoked the pipe.

2006-08-08 15:09:40
247.   bhsportsguy
Tonight's lineup:

Furcal, SS
Lofton, CF (joins Steve Finley this year as the first 39-year-olds to log nine triples in a year since 1945)
Drew, RF
Kent, 2B (back to second for tonight)
Ethier, LF
Betemit, 3B
Martin, C
Loney, 1B
Maddux, P

Has Josh been lurking on DT today?

2006-08-08 15:11:27
248.   natepurcell
Thats a pretty good lineup. Sucks that I have work tonight.
2006-08-08 15:11:51
249.   trainwreck
Interesting to see no Lugo in the lineup. They knew they were sacrificing defense with Kent there so they kept Loney in. Defense is obviously very critical when Maddux starts.
2006-08-08 15:21:55
250.   trainwreck
I can't pick up Garza in fantasy yet. i hope he becomes eligible before people recognize what he is doing.
Show/Hide Comments 251-300
2006-08-08 15:22:16
251.   trainwreck
I should say what he will do.
2006-08-08 15:39:33
252.   Jonny6
RE: 220
Great stuff!!

I'm one of those frequent readers, infrequent posters who found DT during the heady days of the big LoDuca - Penny swap and have been lurking around ever since. I am probably part of the demographic that's transforming DT into a small city from it's past small town roots. Personally, I have always loved the fact that there aren't any rules posted for this site, but that the level of discourse manages to remain generally civil and could even be described as informative and scholarly (with a good mix of pop culture and obscure academic references). This is somewhat ironic since in real life I am a foul-mouthed cynic, but nothing is more depressing than most online sites where discussions quickly denigrate into vulgar exchanges of epithets and various colorful descriptions of human genitalia.

I have high hopes that DT can grow into that rare small city that retains it's small town charm. Hopefully, that can be done without Jon having to spend all of his time playing cyber-cop, while still allowing us to disagree, argue, belabor our points and beat several dead horses, make sarcastic wisecracks, and generally enjoy all of those things that brought us to this site in the first place. If I have any words of wisdom for the site, it would simply be - if you must attack - attack the idea or premise but not the person. The anonymity that internet message boards provide is a powerful tool, but it can obviously be abused. If you don't think you would be comfortable making your post in a face-to-face verbal conversation,than perhaps you should reconsider submitting it.

2006-08-08 15:42:05
253.   thinkblue0
not a bad lineup, would still replace Lofton with Lugo though...
2006-08-08 15:46:16
254.   Telemachos
252 Yes, DT could be the Portland (Oregon) of 'net sites. :)
2006-08-08 15:48:11
255.   Robert Daeley
...must...resist...urge...to...reinstall...SimCity...
2006-08-08 15:56:27
256.   Linkmeister
254 I'm holding out for Ashland. That way we could have an annual Shakespeare Festival.

A man can dream, can't he?

2006-08-08 16:04:13
257.   GoBears
256. Better beer in Portland.
2006-08-08 16:10:33
258.   Andrew Shimmin
255- Psst. . . you don't need to reinstall it. Just go here:

http://simcity.ea.com/play/simcity_classic.php

Also, 255 reminds me of another Sierra hit: Jones in the Fast Lane. This was a much better game when I was 12 then it could possibly have really been, but I liked it very much.

2006-08-08 16:13:05
259.   Jonny6
Does Ashland qualify as a city? What does the population need to be to acquire city status?

By the way, the Mayberry character analysis reminds me of one of my favorite DT threads when we went into detail on the Cheers cast and who would play what role. I assume Jon was supposed to be Sam, but I can't really remember. I know that I really coveted the role of Harry the Magician/Swindler but I think someone beat me to it.

2006-08-08 16:15:07
260.   jet
176 - "Thats the type of savvy move that Ned can make to win back some support."

That statement, (the context was Coletti getting Bradley back), strongly suggests that somehow Coletti NEEDS to "win back some support." I'm confused. Where is it written (other than in your post) that Coletti's lost support, or even needs to win back support? That's an assumption masquerading as a fact. One can, and others here have, disagreed with the merits of reacquiring Bradley. I don't see how on a move that would definitely be controversial, gets Coletti back the support he's allegedly lost. I think you mean "your support", and respectfully, I think you should say so and not assume a few hundred (or thousands) of Dodger fans are on your bandwagon.

2006-08-08 16:16:53
261.   Jon Weisman
256 - If Ashland's the place, then maybe my brother and I can finally get backing for the Much Ado About Nothing remake set in Vero Beach that we wrote.
2006-08-08 16:24:40
262.   mankatododger
I would also like to thank Jon for the great job he does with this site. Living 2000 miles away from LA, this is the only place where I can get intelligent Dodger discussion and it helps keep me semi-sane.
2006-08-08 16:32:05
263.   underdog
261 "Much Ado About Nothing" - the remake of that play could center around debates about recent Dodger trades.
2006-08-08 16:33:25
264.   Bluebleeder87
262

you're nick is pure genious (brings a smile on my face everytime) if you speak spanish you know what I'm talking about.

2006-08-08 16:35:33
265.   Linkmeister
261 Well, then, Game 1 of the 1988 WS should qualify as "A Midsummer Night's Dream."
2006-08-08 16:35:42
266.   underdog
Btw, Roy Smith's chat today is now archived on Dodgers.com:
http://tinyurl.com/k9jb2

{{Sniff}} Didn't answer my question... but that's okay. A few other interesting answers in there, but nothing too revelatory.

2006-08-08 16:41:00
267.   underdog
Well, let's hope this season is indeed All's Well That Ends Well, and not the Comedy of Errors it seemed to be for awhile. I know there are some people here who think working with Jamie McCourt is the Taming of the Shrew, but Measure for Measure I think one can be more positive about management at this point. But, hey, As You Like It.
2006-08-08 16:44:22
268.   Midwest Blue
250 - How can you tell that Garza will be that good? He hasn't faced the true test yet.
2006-08-08 16:45:42
269.   Midwest Blue
I nominate Martin Billingsley as Opie.
2006-08-08 16:55:31
270.   Jacob L
254 What would be wrong with being the Portland (Maine) of net sites?
2006-08-08 16:55:44
271.   Andrew Shimmin
Is MB the youngest? I don't remember now; it seems like we figured this out, once before.
2006-08-08 16:55:54
272.   the OZ
261 Written for the stage or the screen? Look at the comments in the previous thread again; there may be some wealthy DT-types willing to provide some financing :)
2006-08-08 16:57:57
273.   Daniel Zappala
256 I'm holding out for Ashland. That way we could have an annual Shakespeare Festival.

One of the reasons I am very happy living in Utah, a short 3-4 hour drive from the Utah Shakespeare Festival, a really fantastic event. I highly recommend planning your vacation around a stay in either Cedar City, UT or Ashland, OR.

2006-08-08 16:58:08
274.   trainwreck
268
His stuff combined with his minor league numbers.
2006-08-08 16:58:29
275.   Claire Malone-Evans
This 10 game win streak started on Steve Garvey Bobble-Head Night....I'm Goober. I saw Matt Garza pitch for Fresno St. in 2003 and 2004. He was horrible. He had a decent 2005 season and was drafted high. It is amazing how quickly a pitcher can develop.
2006-08-08 17:01:37
276.   Jon Weisman
273 - Been there, done that (once). It was cool.
2006-08-08 17:04:00
277.   Marty
I'd be proud to be Otis.
2006-08-08 17:10:31
278.   Bob Timmermann
The Reds are showing little respect for the pitching of Jason Marquis.
2006-08-08 17:17:59
279.   D4P
278
But you can count on Royce Clayton to show some respect...
2006-08-08 17:33:52
280.   ToyCannon
Off to see the HOF pitch. Bet he gives up his 1st Dodger hit to the 1st batter but I'm hoping he throws 3 innings of no hit ball just for the sake of it.
2006-08-08 17:35:59
281.   underdog
280 Don't worry, Inside the Dodgers has already jinxed the possibility...
2006-08-08 17:52:23
282.   scooplew
267-- Bravo!
2006-08-08 17:55:30
283.   Benaiah
I am feeling lucky. My freshman year roommate from college (I just graduated) is in 7th place at the World Series of Poker main event. There are only 14 people left so he is sure to make at least 900K. I remember when we would play with 25 cent chips and he would love money. What a crazy feeling to know that he will make more money in the next week than I will probably make in the next ten years even if I work hard.
2006-08-08 17:58:23
284.   gcrl
looks like this site could have used some barney fife words of wisdom today: "nip it in the bud".

oh, and barry manilow rocks in concert.

2006-08-08 17:58:32
285.   Jon Weisman
What's the most unexpected aspect of the following?

Top 6TH B:1 S:0 O:2
With Mike Piazza batting, Brian Giles caught stealing 2nd base, catcher Paul Lo Duca to second baseman Jose Valentin.

2006-08-08 17:58:46
286.   D4P
283
Will he blow his winnings on colorful Izod polos, or has he moved past that...?
2006-08-08 17:59:17
287.   Jon Weisman
Top 6TH B:1 S:0 O:2
Mike Piazza singles on a line drive to center fielder Carlos Beltran.
2006-08-08 18:02:24
288.   Benaiah
286 - He was a comp sci major in college, not exactly an IZOD polo shirt wearer. On the other hand... he could buy a whole lotta pastel with those winnings.
2006-08-08 18:09:55
289.   Andrew Shimmin
Dear Senator Stevens,

Would you please have whoever's in charge of the internet flush out the tube to the Connecticut Secretary of State's website?

Thanks,
Andrew Shimmin

2006-08-08 18:09:55
290.   Benaiah
Now down to 13, so if one more person goes out before him then he is a millionaire. He qualified for the tournament by winning an online tourney on the 23rd of July. So he went from working stiff, to sweet I get to go to Vegas to millionaire (presumably) in only a little over 2 weeks.
2006-08-08 18:10:35
291.   Jon Weisman
Game thread is open.
2006-08-08 18:10:49
292.   Marty
283 That is really exciting. Poker is one of my favorite games and I have always dreamed of being good enough for the WSP.

When I was a lad, I thought for a while I would be a professional gambler and make my living counting cards in blackjack.

2006-08-08 18:10:55
293.   Bob Timmermann
I find it hard to believe the Reds could get 12 hits in 5 innings and just score four runs.
2006-08-08 18:12:13
294.   Linkmeister
Dear Mr Shimmin,

What be these tubes of which you speak?

Sincerely,
Senator Steven's Chief of Staff

(You're right, though; the traffic must be fierce to that site this evening.)

2006-08-08 18:12:35
295.   D4P
For some reason I would feel like I was personally selling out if I became a professional poker player. I don't expect anyone else to feel that way, but I wouldn't feel "right" making so much money for playing poker.
2006-08-08 18:14:09
296.   Andrew Shimmin
Not the horse's mouth, but at least it'll load:

http://www.nbc30.com/politics/9584234/detail.html

2006-08-08 18:15:45
297.   Sam DC
290 That's just amazing. I always figured I could be an effective gambler if I could get that Henry Sugar trick working.

But no luck.

Although I have won six straight times in my buddies-in-the-basement home game. For our game, that's becoming a Dimaggio-esque story.

It's probably my greatest accomplishment of 2005-2006.

2006-08-08 18:16:24
298.   Andrew Shimmin
295- If I found a winning lottery ticket, it would be very difficult for me to cash it in, and have some stranger think I paid money for lottery tickets. I'd do it, of course, but I'd probably wear some sort of disguise. Fake mustache, that sort of thing.
2006-08-08 18:16:43
299.   Sam DC
Andrew -- Hartford Courant, loads fine. http://tinyurl.com/frj8o
2006-08-08 18:18:17
300.   Mark Linsey
Do we really believe that there aren't elite teams in the NL? The Mets and Cardinals spring to mind, but I'm willing to listen to arguments that they're really no better (or not much better) than the Dodgers.

I don't know much about how reliable the third-order winning percentage statistic is...I know it's some complicated adjustment to Pythagorean projections, that's about it. But in any case, the folks at Baseball Prospectus think highly enough of it to use it in their playoff odds reports:

Third order wins and losses, as of today, caluclated by BP:
Mets 61.7 48.3
Cards 52.2 58.8 (!!!)
Dodgers 59.2 52.8

Show/Hide Comments 301-350
2006-08-08 18:19:04
301.   Mark Linsey
300 Source: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php
2006-08-08 18:22:45
302.   Linkmeister
299 The NBC site is easier to read than the newspaper's site.

Early, yet, but the trend is going my way.

2006-08-08 18:28:55
303.   Linkmeister
Here's the Courant paper's site in summary form:

http://tinyurl.com/o5z95

2006-08-08 18:51:54
304.   trainwreck
I am amazed they make golf shirts that fit Broxton.

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