Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Jon's other site:
Screen Jam
TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Dodger Thoughts, August 8, 2002:
As of 5:30 p.m. today, the Dodgers are 9-18 in their last 27 games (a easy-to-calculate .333 winning percentage), yet if the season ended this second, they would be playing in a postseason game. How this will play out remains to be seen, but it does give me an opportunity to talk about one of the most roller coaster regular seasons of my life.August 12, 2002:In 1982, before the wild card era, when you had to win the division, the Dodgers fell 10 1/2 games behind the Atlanta Braves at around this time of year: late July/early August. At that time, getting caught up in playoff fever, Braves owner Ted Turner removed the tepee of Chief Noc-a-homa, the Braves' mascot, from its home in the outfield stands to make room for more seats for paying customers. In the next 12 days, the Braves lost their entire 10-game lead. They went 1-11, and the Dodgers went 11-1.
Perhaps poetically, my Dad and I were visting the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, NY as this was going on. It was just astonishing. The only problem was that it was happening in August and not late September. As the Dodgers continued to edge their new-found lead out to a few games, my 14 1/2-year-old self was slightly sad that it was going to end up being a runaway, instead of a dramatic finish.
And then Ted Turner put the tepee back.
The Braves started winning again, the Dodgers started losing. And on the last day of the season, Joe Morgan of the Giants homered off Terry Forster of the Dodgers in the bottom of the 8th inning, while the Braves were beating San Diego. Atlanta won the division on that final day.
You never have it lost, and you never have it won. And so, while I can look at the Dodgers, as I have earlier on this site, and alternately forecast doom or optimism, you simply never, ever, ever know. And I guess that's part of why I keep coming back. I am a cynical man who constantly hopes.
Just some footnotes and minor corrections on Thursday's entry.April 22, 2003:On July 29, the Dodgers were 10.5 games behind Atlanta.
On July 30, the Dodgers swept a doubleheader from the Braves, rallying from a 6-1 deficit to win the first game 10-9. The Dodgers ended up sweeping the four-game series with the Braves to pull within 6.5 games, then lost to Cincinnati to fall 7.5 games back.
Two victories over the Reds brought the Dodgers within 5.5 games. Then, with an extra-inning victory on August 5, the Dodgers won another four straight over the Braves - three in extra innings - to pull with 1.5.
Two more victories over the Reds gave the Dodgers eight wins in a row and 12 out of 13, and put them ahead of the Braves on August 10.
Meanwhile, over at Dodgers.com, Ken Gurnick interviews Tommy Lasorda about one of the most memorable comeback seasons in Dodger history - 1982.By the way, the Dodgers made no big midseason transactions in 1982 from what I can discern or recall. Their rally (and ultimately, their downfall) was homegrown.Early readers of this site - Hi Greg, Hi Brax - will recall that I wrote about this season in two of my first entries (August 8 and August 12). The Dodgers wiped out a 10 1/2-game deficit to the Atlanta Braves in under two weeks.
However, Gurnick writes:
"That the Braves ultimately won the division on the last day of the 1982 season, when Joe Morgan's home run off Terry Forster at Candlestick Park eliminated the Dodgers, doesn't change the fact that the Dodgers have come back from way back before."
Maybe not in the literal sense. But the whole point of building a big lead is that it gives you a cushion. It allows you the luxury of a slump. No one enjoyed that the summer of '82 more than I did, but the fall of '82 brought a hard lesson. Even if you have time to come back, even if you can come back, you need to have enough to finish the job. You have to do more than outplay those teams until you catch them. You have to continue outplaying them. It's a lot of work to dig out of a hole - and stay out of it.
It's not even about taking things one game at a time. You have to take things one pitch at a time. You have to focus on simply doing your job better. Of course a comeback can happen - but you need to do tangible things to make it happen.
Their big stretch drive move was to activate Manny Mota for his final career at-bat. Mota was unable to repeat his 3-for-7 performance in 1981, instead grounding out in the 13th inning while batting for Mike Scioscia on September 1, 1982.
* * *
Nice of you to ask... I've enjoyed a day of remarkably clean language.
I think it was a one day thing (if I remember correctly)
Right now, say our best hitters are Ethier and Garciaparra. Would you bat them 1-2? You could, but I don't think I would.
I'm not sure I would necessarily bat them 1-2, but I feel like, if I didn't the reason would probably be more along the lines of "Of course nobody bats them 1-2" than any meaningful analysis of why they shouldn't bat 1-2. All of which kinda makes me want to bat them 1-2...
248. Unfortunately, I have to shave later because I've got a date...plus it's getting itchy.
If she can't appreciate the importance of a streak-beard, then she's not the gal for you, ok94. Well, at least you shouldn't marry her, but perhaps that's not the point.
http://tinyurl.com/r7ftf
I don't think she would have any problem with it, though this is only our 3rd date so it's hard to tell for sure.
https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/464027.html#274
The Cards have a .511 win expectancy, which translates to an 83-win season. They are playing four games above their pythagorean pace, however, and given the quality of the teams they get to play against in September, they should be able to improve their run differential a bit. But even giving them the benefit of the doubt for their overachievement, I think the Cards will top out at around 90 wins this year.
To catch them, then, LA should have to put up a record of 33-16 from here on out. That will be tough to do, of course, but it's not like it hasn't been done by other, similarly flawed teams (such as Oakland and Houston).
Don't do that.
I guess I just see a tradeoff, and it's not immediately obvious on the surface (without actually looking at some data) which option is preferred.
1. On one hand, like you said, it's best for runners to be on base ahead of your big boppers.
2. On the other hand, the better the hitter, the more PAs he should get (and vice versa).
So, is the loss associated with your better hitters losing PAs made up for by having more runners on base ahead of them during the PAs they actually get?
Similarly, is the loss associated with having fewer runners on base ahead of them made up for by having your better hitters get more PAs?
I think these are empiricial (not theoretical) questions, aren't they...?
-wince-
Sheesh. Funky Canadian courts. Not sure that'd fly in the States.
thanks
POLITICS!
-rabblerabblerabblerabble-
Okay. We're done. :)
Anyway, I think part of it depends on the composition of the OPS of the hitters you want to put in front of your big sluggers. If you've got a guy who doesn't SLG much, but still has a solid OBP, that's exactly the type of guy you should want in front of your big hitter - there won't be much dropoff in number of times the earlier hitter gets on base, but there should be a noticable increase in the number of times he gets brought home.
I forget who it was in the last thread who said the #1 hitter should be the team's top OBP guy, and then go descending OPS... I'd say put your #1 OPS guy in the 3rd slot, then your top two remaining OBP guys in the #1 and #2 spots, and go in descending order of OPS 4-8.
(cribbed -- and paraphrased -- from Douglas Adams, of course)
http://tinyurl.com/zju8z
Tigers took a 3-2 lead on an Inge homer in the 7th. Then in the 8th, Morneau turned around a Zumaya fastball for a 2-run shot to make it 4-3. It's in the top of the 9th now.
Offensive Substitution: Pinch runner Brian Schneider replaces Daryle Ward.
Now this would be an intriguing lineup, by descending order of OPS. Check out the handedness taking care of itself.
1 LF Ethier L
2 1B Garciaparra R
3 3B Betemit S
4 C Martin R
5 RF Drew* L
6 2B Kent R
7 CF Kemp* R
8 SS Furcal S
9 (pitcher)
* Or Drew in CF and Kemp in RF.
Note: Missing from this is Saenz (who is 3rd in OPS), Repko (9th, but we have OF covered), Loney (10th, ditto 1B), Lofton, and folks not on the active roster. Furcal is actually 14th.
http://tinyurl.com/kar22
1. High Potential/ Low Realization
2-4. High Potential/ High Realization
5-6. Low Potential/ High Realization
7-9. Crappy hitters
Ideally, anyway.
Is it against the rules to jinx Yankee pitchers...?
Besides, our tall guy is nearly as tall as their tall guy; they root for each other.
At the end of tonight, the Dodgers won't have the checkered jersey. It will either be yellow or nothing!
He hit it out of the stadium in Left Center. The ball hit the roof and bounced out. It might have went 500 feet.
Don't you remember Dunn's homer off of Lima?
:o)
Ross was hit to just about dead center.
Take it over to Bronx Banter. I'm sure they will enjoy the discussion.
Michael Kay got into a heated argument on the radio in NY about this very topic that I can only allude to.
Huh? Johnson has five strikeouts.
That's true.
I was one too.
Not a bad bunter.
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in the sands of the desert.
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Derek Lowe is pitching tonight.
But Lofton isn't out in center tonight.
The Giants bullpen.
I think there are generations of Dodger fans that might disagree with that...
Things Fall Apart
The Blood Dimmed Tide
The Center Cannot Hold
Slouch[ing] Towards Bethlehem
Ceremony of Innocence
Mere Anarchy
The Second Coming
Saying that jinxes the quickness of the game I've learned. It's like getting on the freeway and saying "Traffic seems light this morning." As you soon as you say that, three cars run into each other and they take up two lanes and none of the drivers will move their cars to the side of the road. Instead, they have a discussion in the middle of the freeway. Even though that's against the law and it's dangerous. Man I hate those people so much....
Lugo, your bunt sucked. Try not to make an additional out while at first.
As usual...
105 - Things Fall Apart was great. That's the only book on that list I've read.
Well, then that happened.
This is ridiculous.
No progress was made in 2005
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Communication is severed between Tracy and Depo
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
Both Tracy and Depo are fired while the media and sabr fans weep.
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Is that Lasorda I see?
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Bulldog Returns.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in the sands of the desert.
Instead a Giant appears in the southland by the name of Flanders.
Derek Lowe is back! I'll be home towards the end of the game.
Or perhaps Loney missed a sign and the squeez was on?
the 3rd base couch had something to do with it no?
If it not a swipe tag after being pulled laterally off the bag, is is the leaping catch landing back on the bag to record the out.
Vin sure seems to think (and like) that Lugo was running on his own.
It's the baseball equivalent of starting a nuclear war! Lugo had gone past the fail safe point!
hahahaha.
I agree, though, it does not seem reasonable that the choice to steal home (especially since it was a double steal) was Lugo's. It pretty much had to be a called play.
Good, a run, Lol, no one was covering first so Repko got back.
I wouldn't be casual about giving up another run now.
I almost think a failed steal of home should be punishable by at least a 3 game losing streak.
Drew with a "light quad pull". What does that mean--if someone starts hitting in his spot he will be well enough to play?
July 4, 2004 Boston at Atlanta
RED SOX 2ND: Varitek singled to center; Millar singled to center
[Varitek to second]; McCarty struck out; Mueller forced Millar
(first to shortstop) [Varitek to third]; Lowe doubled to left
[Varitek scored, Mueller out at home (left to shortstop to
catcher)]; 1 R, 3 H, 0 E, 1 LOB. Red Sox 1, Braves 0.
Grey's Antaomy
Even Homer Simpson knows that karma is apportioned by the cosmos!
Jim Tracy and Paul Depodesta? Oh wrong year.
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The resurgent Rockies challenging for the division
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Frank Mccourt is a self important dandy
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
Of the glory days of Garvey, Russell, Lopes and Cey.
*The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in the sands of the desert.*
I see great offensive prospects for the Diamondbacks.
*but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?*
I assume 20 centuries equals 20 years and that is how long the Dodger fans will have to wait between championships?
I tell my boss each day that I have to honor the streak, even if it is to his detriment. Cool thing is he totally understands!
65 through 6.
Slight quad pull. Day to day.
Let's see what it is Lugo luck/fate...
I went to that All-Star Game! It cured me of the idea that All-Star Games were interesting.
For a year I have thought Jeff Francis looked familiar. I've placed him.
He looks like the actor in Band of Brothers who plays Lt. Jones, the West Point replacement that comes in about 2/3 of the way through the series.
Turns out, Lt. Jones is played by none other than Colin Hanks, Tom's son.
Tell me if you think there is a resemblance.
http://imagecache2.allposters.com/images/pic/adc/10051983A~Colin-Hanks-Posters.jpg
I can definately see the resemblance.
The White Sox uniforms had huge floppy collars on them.
I liked that episode. Liked the whole BoB series, in fact.
Mr. Hurdle deserves something for his fine efforts.
Those were dark times. Dark times indeed. Ed Farmer was the White Sox representative. Chet Lemon might have been there too.
J.R. Richard was pitching in the twilight at Dodger Stadium. I'm surprised that none of the AL batters got killed.
Yes, that was its "official" debut, but it had been operated a few times earlier.
I find myself jamming up my DVR just about once a year when History Channel shows the repeats.
Like you said, a great show!
Bring in Saenz.
Not good.
agreed, I think the documantary of the actual people was also great
Is Little's managerial style THAT conventional, so he offends nobody? Or, is he pushing ALL the right buttons at ALL the right times?
Which is writing checks his body can't cash
I'm a big fan of the pinch hitter if not for the simple fact that it puts the reportedly fragile Lowe on the bench having pitched well.
He really isn't over-managing. Thats why alot of people here like him.
It may be the only call you get, unless the rules in real jail are different from TV jail.
http://tinyurl.com/gvdu3
Letting Francis hit, and then pitch to the top of the order after 105 pitches?
Good call Clint.
http://retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B07020SFN1963.htm
haha...(wait for it!)
Thousands jump off their roofs in New England.
i thought lugo just sacrificed himself?
"I used to be cruel to my woman.
I beat her, and kept her apart from the things that she loved."
Thats the only thing that will keep the Dodgers from scoring off this done pitcher.
Com on panama Seinz.
lol no way....
it must be really easy on the eyes Jon.
But watch Kent visit his grannie.
Now the LHP comes in to face Ethier.
Yes, we get the AFLAC ad. We are also getting lots of "Standoff", which looks to be a show that would annoy me very much.
Are there really hostage negotiations that go on every week?
Lowe again.
I can't take much more, these streaks are tough on the psych.
Ethier might have had hin if Kent caught the ball.
Man,that was the kind of play that usually blows up on you, the gods are with us!
Lowe again.
I can't take much more, these streaks are tough on the psych.
Ethier might have had hin if Kent caught the ball.
Man,that was the kind of play that usually blows up on you, the gods are with us!
Man that was one akward motion.
Man that was one akward motion.
They were "too hot not to cool down."
Hopefully Carolyn can console him
There's still hope.
LAT is going to be disappointed he missed Cheryl Tiegs thoughts.
Betemit-hey guys do get to make mistakes occasionally.
You can refer to us as "Los Pobres" or "Les Miserables"
The worst inning of the year?
On the Dodgers side:
Lugo caught stealing home
Lowe not pinch hit for and then left in to even start the 9th
Stupid Bunter Principle
Ethier swinging 2-0 with the bases full and 2 outs
On the Rockies side:
Hurdle leaving Francis in way to long
Both managers deserve an L after tonite's performance.
A no trading with the Devil Rays policy should be the first thing on his list.
Bossman and Carl Crawford are exceptions.
Either way, we should just be happy to be in a position where this game means something.
An all around bad play, but by then the Dodgers were down a run anyway. I was disappointed Kent swung at the first pitch.
Also, Ethier needs to learn to go the other way. He stepped toward first to pull a ball that was going on the outside corner. He should watch video of Helton stepping toward third and looping the ball down the line for a double in the ninth.
You're lucky...
"The worst inning of the year?"
No way.
(Ducking as Bill James Abstract launched at head.)
The only significant thing is in 365. No more trades with the Devil Rays. No matter what.(Even Carl, sorry:though I would like to have him dearly)
I was listening to ESPNNews today and they had a writer on that suggest Loria was pretty close to firing Girardi due to his baseball strategies.
At least Grits has been fairly good this year. Tonite might have been his worst game.
New post up top.
That brought back memories of Robles/Izzy terrorizing the base pads to a tune of 8/24 success rate.
FWIW, I thought Lugo made a good decision on the steal of home. Vin Scully rarely misses a call but he did tonight--Francis didn't make a great "pitch" to get Lugo, he made a great play. Francis stepped off the rubber and fired a perfect throw to get Lugo.
I'll be very interested to see how the boys react to this tomorrow.
If mere fans can influence the outcome of games by sitting on the wrong end of the sofa, then you have to figure at some level morality plays into it, too. Unless you're a nihilist.
But, wow, it didn't take long for the griping to begin! Some bad things happened this game, yep, absolutely. Was bound to happen sooner or later. I'll take an 11 and 1 streak. Go get 'em tomorrow.
There's no defending this.
It was an awful decision to attempt to steal home with only 1 out, considering the middle of the lineup is up.
You're basically saying that Lugo had a better chance to steal home, than the Dodger hitters had of making contact against Francis. Thats completely a wrongful judgement. How many K's did Francis have tonite? Not many. I think its much more logical to expect a hitter to make contact, than to attempt to steal home.
Its not like the Dodgers werent making contact against Francis. He was giving up plenty of fly balls.
400- only Carl Crawford can do it (and should be allowed to do it). Carl Crawford is probably the fastest man in baseball and he's a great baserunner. Lugo's just fast (but not Crawford fast).
Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.