I don't really understand not batting for Lowe either, especially with two outs. I guess they were weighing the way he was pitching versus the innings logged by the bullpen recently, or something? But still. At any rate, they were bound to have an off night with the bat (and glove) again eventually, and l...l... I can't say it. Lo... loo... lose.

{Whew}

Meanwhile, as a perfect metaphor for the evening: I was listening on MLB audio, and as soon as the last out was made, my computer froze and crashed.

It would have been nice to see the Bums in first place again, but there's plenty of time for that, and plenty of games against the Pads and snakes to make up for some wacky plays tonight.

I blame Jason Isringhausen. If he didn't give up the 2-run homer to David Ross, then the Dodgers, Reds, and DBacks would all be tied for the wild card.

For the record, that was

1) Barmes
2) Sullivan
3) Francis

We could have activated Ron Perranoski to pitch the eighth inning.

That ninth inning was so strange. Wicked hop to Lugo. Betemit forgets how to execute a run down properly as the runner is going toward home.

I looked outside and yup: full moon.

:-( And the collapse begins...

Ok, according to Lyons and Kennedy (two reliable sources, to be sure), Lugo went on his own. And they say no one in the dugout would be mad at him.

And that is why I don't play professional baseball

Losing one close game on a couple of strange plays doesn't strike me as an omen for a complete collapse. Like Jon said, time to start over.

6 That's the spirit!

Sheesh.

I already said as much in the game thread--I'll be interested to see how the boys react tomorrow.

How many people think the Dodgers are a fun team to watch? I think they are so much more fun to watch this year than last year: the kids, the surprises (Ethier, Saito, Garciaparra, et. al.), the pitching of Penny and now they have Greg Maddux. It's a fun team.

Gagne55, in case you didn't see my request at the bottom of the last thread, could you please dial down the hyperbole?

They are more fun to watch these days, if only because the predictability is gone - well except for Carrera blowing a lead.

The loss was due to Little not using the talent he had available -- a pinch hitter for Lowe in the seventh, and a relief pitcher for Lowe in the ninth. These were sentimental calls. But: Knowing the talent was there to use should be reassuring that decline is not imminent.

Little needs to realize he's got a pretty good 25-man roster now. There's no excuse for being behind the strategic 8-ball.

7 I may be a minority of one but I thought Lugo made a good play on the steal of home. Francis made a great play stepping off the rubber and firing a throw to the plate.

More than a few coaches would tell me in my broadcasting days that a southpaw with a slow delivery out of the stretch was ripe to steal third and even home. Lugo has great speed, got a terrific jump and great play got him. My two cents, anyway.

12 Very well said. Frankly, I wish I would've put it that way.

Sorry, losing an 11 game winning streak is pretty depressing, especially when a win would have meant first place.

14 Of two. I thought it was a smart play.

Did anybody blame Repko, yet? Cool. I blame Repko.

14.
There was 1 out.
The middle of the order is up.
Just making contact likely scores a run. Francis isnt a strike out pitcher.

For those reasons, I cant see the logic in Lugo's decision. Even worse, he just got picked off in the previous inning. Just a very bad nite for Julio Lugo.

14 - I like the idea of stealing home, but in practice it's almost impossible - especially compared to the guy at the plate getting a base hit to score the runner.

16 - Thanks.

There isn't one person here that is happy that the Dodgers lost. That doesn't mean we have to take it out on each other. And that includes shouting and wailing over and over again.

I'm turning in - everyone, take it easy.

a few thoughts:
-furcal is really playing at high level right now.

-who sits tomorrow, lugo, lofton, drew or kent? if the strain right quad sits, does lugo play right?

-loney hitting a fly ball off a tough lefty coming in cold off the bench or the lugo steal? don't have a gripe with this.

It's within the Toaster family so I don't think Jon will mind if I promote the post in Mike's Baseball Rants. Oh, what might be if interleague play did not exist.

18 - Oh Andrew, you haven't lost your edge.

7- that makes me feel a lot better about Grits.

Ned makes good trades when he trades veterans for prospects/young players. Ned gets in trouble when he trades with the Devil Rays. Scanning through their roster, Damon Hollins should be available. Blake DeWitt should do it.

20. And you dont even need a hit to score the runner. There was 1 out when Lugo tried to steal home. It made no sense at all, unless you believe that Loney cant make contact at the plate, or Kent cant get a hit.

26-were they playing the infield at normal depth?

14- I would agree with you...if there were 2 outs. With a rookie at the plate, it makes sense especially considering how slow Francis was to the plate....with 2 outs.

I am not willing to submit my team to Julio Lugo's bizarre whims. End of story.

18 -- Nicely played.

So far in a limited number of games, Lugo hasn't done much more than Izturis would have done at 2nd. Lugo's offense hasn't really been that much better and, his baserunning is similar to Izturis, and I would take Izturis defense over Lugo's.

Between the Lugo steal and letting Lowe hit it seemed like Little was seeing just how much the could get away with and still win.

Also, was Betemit hitting with one of those pink bats from the breast cancer awareness game, or do I need to fix my TV?

*he

What is the return policy on Lugo, Hall, and BJ?

Seriously, I am shocked Jon doesn't shut this site down and go play with his kids.

Thank GOD it finally happened, and go Rockies.

P.S. - Blame JULIO for that horrific fake dive to allow the winning run. Julio Lugo would't risk a bruise to stop a ball and save a run. Nope.

I just got off the phone with my dad. We transacted business, and then, with absolutely no discussion about the recently completed game beforehand, he said "By the way, did you see the game tonight? It must have been the worst-managed game I've ever seen."

Must have been.

I'm going to the game tomorrow. At least I can rest easy knowing that breaking the win streak will not be my fault.

36
I don't think my dad and I have ever "transacted business", over the phone or otherwise

38 -- Well, you don't know what you're missing then.

I'm pretty sure the end of the streak was my fault. For two weeks I've been neglecting my Master's thesis. Today I did a little work on it and boom, Dodgers lose.

39
You sentimental fool, you.

PS: Do you think they get Gameday in Ontario...?

Well it's only 2 more months to go and then it will be one Lugo togo.

Well, a little too much tinkering and non-tinkering by the manager in tonights loss. But oh well, those things happen and will continue to happen as long as the book in still in publication. Right after the loss I went straight to the razor to shave the whiskers off. I went through two razors to get the job done. I ended up pinch hitting for the first razor in order to get a right hand / left side of the face matchup, then I double switched out my best can of shaving cream. I got the mustache in a run down but ended up dropping the razor on the floor and stepping on it. It was a tough night all the way around. Wondering how to best begin a new streak or end our current losing streak. I pulled out my special edition copy of Moneyball and opened it up to the chapter titled "Superstitions, Smallball and Witchcraft". It states when ending a long "no shaving" winning streak, you must immediately shave, take a cold shower and then wear the same socks until the team wins again. vr, Xei

27 - It was 1st and 3rd 1 out, infield at DP depth, Loney hit a slow grounder to first, Lugo probably would have scored on the play as the ball was hit too slowly for a double play. I thought the timing was odd as Kent was on deck.
31 - LOL: Grady was kind of testing the fates and he got burned for it. It would have been nice to jump into first for a change but let's hope this was a one might stumble, not a change in momentum in the opposite direction. Too many games coming up within the division sans the three next week with the Fish!

I couldn't understand not pinch-hitting for Lowe in the 7th (turned it on after local news), but what the heck.

Xei, I didn't shave yesterday or today, but it didn't seem to help. You shoulda kept the mustache.

43- Well Eric L can wear his LA hat again, you have shaved off the beard and I will wear the socks I wore today adn hope for a win tomorrow. Bills v. Jennings! By the way, when they were in Florida last weekend on Billingley's game, did anyone else notice the organist played the "Leave it to Beaver" theme song when Bills came to the plate? My wife heard it and asked me why the theme was being played? I thought for a second and then it dawned on me, Mrs. Cleaver was played by Barbara Billingley. Organist probably taking notes from Nancy Bea.

One way to look at the game is this way:

1) the team that deliberately tried to steal home got caught
2) the team that accidentally tried to steal home succeeded

46-I'm sorry I missed the S, should be Barbara Billingsley. Anyone from DT at the game now is an official Streak-buster. :)

Stealing home, IMO, is never a smart play. Unless the pitcher on the mound is completely asleep, there is no reason to attempt it. Even a .200 hitter, will get the run in twenty percent of the time, not even factoring in errors.

I can't believe that stealing home is a better percentage than 20% throughout baseball.

In the end, there was an error charged to Martin on the steal of home. That was just to account for Hawpe making it to third.

It seems about every three years that Grady leaves his Boston starter in too long. I hope it is out of his system for the next three.

Speaking of sentimentality, here is a vote to sign Piazza for next year.

Haven't looked at the game thread yet, but that error should have gone to Betemit. That 3rd run was completely his fault. He must be delusional about his own speed, cuz the runner was pulling away from him as he ran to tag him.

Stuff happens, but the goats tonight were definitely Lugo (3x) and Betemit, in his cameo appearance.

The adventures in baserunning hurt tonight, but don't forget how many guys got thrown out last night as well. Just didn't matter because the team won. I'd just as soon we showed a bit less greed on the basepaths. Yes, without power, the extra base is nice, but risking the extra out is rarely worth it.

Oh, what was the verdict on Drew? I didn't catch why he left the game.

51. Sign Piazza? No thanks. Not unless the NL adds the DH next year. Piazza will demand (rightly) playing time. Martin's backup shouldn't play more than once or twice per week.

53. I think he'd be a fine 1-2x weekly backup if near current year numbers... 18 hr's, .897 OPS in 298 AB's for $1.2mm.

If I recall correctly Thorn and Palmer wrote, in "The Hidden Game of Baseball", that stealing home was generally an underrated play. Don't have it on me at the moment though, so I can't provide the quotes. They also said that going from 2nd to 3rd on a grounder was also a good risk; thankfully, Furcal astutely nipped that one in the bud in the 9th, before things took a turn for the Yeats.

Xei, I can report that the Dodgers performance has been facial-hair neutral on this end. Since I last shaved (July 9) the Dodgers have taken us on their thrill ride of alternating horror and joy.

Memories are coming back to me; I believe that they calculated that the play has to succeed 30% of the time to break even. Not great odds, but not as terrible as you might expect either.

I may be wrong, but I believe the "Hidden Game" may have been the first to peg the break-even point of the steal of 2nd as being about 66%. Hard to believe that book is nearly 25 years old; I read it when I was ten.

I just want to know how overkill94's date turned out.

Well, not really, but it's more interesting that deconstructing Dodger baserunning follies.

54 My point is that Piazza won't want to play only once or twice a week. He'll demand more PT, and the Dodgers are one team that shouldn't give it to him.

I am disturbed about the article on the dodger page saying that Nomar was activated while being much less than 100%. Nomar says he is just happy that his knee is attached. It is not like he was fast before, but now he is even less nimble and possibly a liability. Grady says he'll watch Nomar closely and not make him do anything he can't do. Like run! Great. I don't like the sound of this.

Nice title.

JoeyP - in your list of villains from the last thread you include: "Ethier swinging 2-0 with the bases full and 2 outs"

I didn't see the pitch, so maybe it was awful, but are you saying you think is always a take situation? Even for one of our near-best hitters? I'm all for patient and selective hitting, and certainly think it's valuable to grind out long at-bats against pitchers, but I certainly don't think batters should always take on 2-0, even with 2 outs, and even with the bases loaded.

Instead of watching Dodgers baseball I went to bed.

I blame myself for the loss.

but are you saying you think is always a take situation?

If its the 8th inning and 1 run likely wins or ties the game, then yes its always a take situation.

Nice profile of Ken Griffey Jr. from today's Post -- you can find out why he considers himself "The Malcom X of parents."

http://tinyurl.com/jtops

You got to remember that Lugo doesn't care spit for the Dodgers, he knows he's there for another 2 months, then goodbye. He's not playing for the Dodgers, he's playing for his Free Agency Campaign this fall. He doesn't care if we win or lose, he just wants some nice personal achievements on his resume. He needs a verbal tail-kicking, that is if we had a real manager to do it and not this corn pone pretender...

Julio Lugo has received the world's shortest honeymoon.

And I'm stuck with 2,000 Odalis Perez effigies. Do I have to see if I can change them into Julio Lugo effigies?

I'll get my effigy guys on it.

On my Time-Warner system, Dodgers on Demand occupies channel 1015. The Dodgers lead the Expos 2-1 in the 9th in Game 5 of the NLCS.

I think this Valenzuela kid is through. Take him out Lasorda! Take him out!

64 I'd think that, at the very least, he'd want a share of the playoff money.

66 Call Trader Ned; If it can't play baseball very well, he's definitely interested. I don't know what you're going to do with Kemp and LaRoche though...

68 I don't imagine he'd turn it down but how much would the third or fourth of a share be? Compare that to the millions he thinks he'll get in Free Agency. The risk is well worth it from his perspective.

You're going to have to remove a lot of stuffing.

69 I forgot, you're in the Library business. Perhaps you can rent them out on a monthly basis...

You're going to have to remove a lot of stuffing

aka "Goo"

It's too early to quote Spiro Agnew (it's always too early to do so) but, boy, a lot of nattering nabobs of negativity here after one loss out of 12. I highly recommend forgetting last night's game, not worrying about it too much and moving on. Heck, I think I want to give this a time-out and go play with Jon's kids.

Instead I have to go to the DMV this morning (just to give you a perspective check.) While there I promise not to obsess about last night's game, however.

Lugo is STOG

You got to remember that Lugo doesn't care spit for the Dodgers, he knows he's there for another 2 months, then goodbye. He's not playing for the Dodgers, he's playing for his Free Agency Campaign this fall. He doesn't care if we win or lose, he just wants some nice personal achievements on his resume. He needs a verbal tail-kicking, that is if we had a real manager to do it and not this corn pone pretender...

-------------------------------------------
Out of a totally dispicable and outrageous post, the boldface part takes the cake.

64 - "he just wants some nice personal achievements on his resume."

So that's going to make him play worse? I don't understand.

I wasn't happy with the Lugo trade, but the massive reaction against him is going to turn me in his favor. It's one thing to question the value of his talent, but the whole character assassination thing is over the top.

I'm not convinced that leaving Lowe in to bat in the 7th was that bad of a decision.

I wish I had a simulator that could settle it once and for all, but using quick math I'd guess that leaving him in reduced our chances of scoring in the 7th inning from 35% to 15%, but decreased the Rockies chances of scoring by some unknown percentage in the 8th inning and later innings, and provided Grady with a little more flexibility (an extra unused pinch hitter) for later in the game which could help increase the Dodgers win likelihood.

I mean, I could be convinced that this was a bad decision, but it would take systematic way of showing it. Anyone have an approach/solution to offer?

The irony committee just disbanded because it has nothing left to do.

79
Except eat the cake...

Hey Nate, according to Rob at 6-4-2 it's Sal Fasano's birthday today!

At least the fans in Tampa Bay should be happy. If not next season, then by 2008 they DRays should be competing with Yankees/Red Sox thanks to all the gems they stole from us.

How does bringing broxton in to pitch to the worst part of their lineup increase their chances of scoring?

But the committee left the cake out in the rain. Ironically they can't find the recipe.

77. Wanting nice personal acheivements on his resume should actually help us win, no? Unless he can somehow get basehits or homeruns and not have them count for the Dodgers. I'm at a loss to see how Julio Lugo wanting to play well for free agency is a negative for the Dodgers.

Some players are more concerned with trying to pad their own stats (by hitting HRs, for example) rather than extending a rally by slapping a chopper over the 2nd baseman's head.

Ahh. Just got my computer back after a few days. Looks like some thought the Dodgers were going to go the remainder of the season without losing a game or making a mistake. I'm half glad they lost. It removes the pressure that was building. If they win 2 out of every 3 games left I will be estatic.

I am sitting in the Long Beach airport. Picked the wrong day to fly but I'd rather be at Long Beach than LAX today.

Sam, I am going to see Ted Lerned this weekeknd in Providence. I'll let you know if I learn anything.

I guess the classic example would be trying to steal a base in late innings when the team is down by two runs -- we'll call this "The Soriano". Helps the individual player's stats, but doesn't help (or hurts) the team.

I'm not at all saying this is what Lugo is doing.

86. I didn't realize slapping a chopper over the 2nd baseman's head was a repeatable skill, and you would think that adding the basehit would be good for the player's stats as well, but what do I know.

I read in a Times obit today that a part of my childhood died. Harold Stueve, the last brother of the founders of Alta Dena dairy in Monrovia died. That dairy farm was next to my grade school and was always a prescence, with another dairy farm, in the neighborhood. Whenever a cow would have a calf, the kids would line up around the fence to watch. Whenever it rained, our playground would get flooded with dairy detritus. Both farms are long-gone, replaced by condo developments. I'm sure no one who lives there now know that that part of Monrovia was called "cow town". It's hard to believe now that they ever existed in such a suburban area.

One thing the obit failed to mention was how wild the Stueve girls were :)

87 You missed Cheryl Tiegs Thoughts yesterday.

The latest gossip with the Nationals is some serious grousing by Cincinnati that a reliever they got from DC was damaged goods and that Bowden wasn't honest about it before the trade. Seems overblown to me.

Last night's game...

Betemit finally starts hitting, so he sits last night...

Kent swings at the first pitch with the pitcher on the ropes in the 8th...and Ethier on a 2-0 count, same inning...

I know its one game, and they won 11 in a row...but...

Impatience at the plate...a season long problem...don't we have coaches?

Betemit has played 9 games in a row...he's tired and needs a rest? In a month and a half, he can rest for the whole off season...

Agree with you Jon...leaving Lowe in to hit?

Funny coverage in the Times this morning...Lowe left in too long and allowed 2 runs to score in the 9th...I don't know about the writer, but I thought it was Saito who allowed the game winning hit, and that it was Betemit who needs instruction on how to complete a rundown...

89
But the single isn't as good for the individual's stats as the HR, and the single is much better for the team because it extends the rally and doesn't let the other team off the hook by removing the pressure of having runners on base.

The single is "much better" than a home run in rally situations? Didn't we just talk about this?

Nobody could pasteurize those Stueve girls.

94 I'll take runs any way I can get them. To say a home run hurts a rally, when runs are scoring, I have a tough time with that logic.

93 - Read Jon's post on 5-31-06. Runs are runs. The home run is the best possible outcome in any at-bat.

90. I remember working on the financing to allow Dean Foods to buy Alta Dena Dairy. They still have the milk processing plant over there, don't they?

93. I don't like it when you decide to be sarcastic and make fun of stupid announcers.

91. Darn, I'll have to go back to yesterday's thoughts. I was always a Christy Brinkly man. Even now I pause for a few seconds when she and Chuck Norris are trying to sell me excersise equipment that will help me lose 50 lbs if I use it for just 3 mins a day. I still like her, but 4 divorces are suspect.

The Reds grousing could'nt have anything to do with thier recent performance, could it? :-)

98 That's probably in Chino, where there are still dairy farms. The farm in Monrovia was converted to condos in the 80s I think.

92-betemit hits lefties about as well as some of our pitchers hit. I think his ops is somewhere in the low to mid 500s.

agree on the kent ab, the guy had just hit saenz, should have worked him a little bit.

but decreased the Rockies chances of scoring by some unknown percentage in the 8th inning and later innings

How so?
Is Lowe pitching the 8th/9th better than Broxton/Saito taking those innings?

Re: Lugo playing for millions of dollars in free agency at the expense of helping the Dodgers.

If this ridiculous allegation were true, it would be a completely illogical decision on Lugo's part.

If I've counted correctly, Lugo is one of five players on this team who can play shortstop, one of four who can play third base, and one of four who can play second base. And I'm not even counting Oscar Robles. Lugo is a 'nice-to-have' and not a 'need-to-have.' If Grady Little or Ned Colletti came to believe Lugo was trying to pad his stats instead of following the team's strategy, Lugo would find himself behind Ramon Martinez on the Dodger depth chart, with little chance to pad his stats.

I hope that eases minds on this wacky conspiracy theory. Sheesh.

P.S. Little, in interviews last night, sounded perfectly content with Lugo's play -- the attempted steal, even the dive for the grounder. The player he sounded annoyed with was Betemit.

When my father moved out to California, he eventually owned a drive-through dairy that sold Alta-Dena milk, although he wasn't officially part of the chain.

I spent many a summer night working at a place depicted in this link hoping that tonight wasn't going to be the night that someone was going to shoot me for $50 in the register.

http://www.altadenadairy.com/aDDThru.asp

Justin Ruggiano needs a promotion.
.298/.431/.638 in 47ABs for D-Rays.

He has mastered AA.
Free Justin!

The player he sounded annoyed with was Betemit

like I said...how're those rundown drills going??

A friend of mine in high school worked at an Alta Dena drive through in Temple City. They were robbed one night and he was left tied up in the back refrigerator for a few hours. He quit that job soon after.

105 I'm completely shocked that there are still 100+ drive-thru dairies in LA. I thought these went the way of the drive-in movie.

92 I want people in the room to raise their hands if they thought kent wasn't going to swing at that first pitch and have it amount to little.

Adrian Gonzalez homers in the first in New York. It's 2-0 Padres.

106 How many games is that?

111 Bummer

109

My dad's old store is now a parking lot for a KFC. I drove over to it once and parked on it.

It was at Roscoe and Laurel Canyon in North Hollywood.

111
And Lo Duca isn't in the lineup today. He's probably off at the OTB.

As of this moment, the Padres have a 61.7% chance of winning this game.

Just so you all know.

115 Neither is Beltran and Tucker/Ledee are starting.

My dad's old store is now a parking lot for a KFC

"Progress"

They put up a plant
Where we used to park
That ole drive-in
Is a new WalMart
The cafe is closed
Where our names were carved
In that corner booooooth
Yeah, everything's changed,
Except for the way I feel about you.

I'm going to reverse the streak superstition. From now on every time the Dodgers lose, I'm going to stop shaving until they win again. Full disclosure: I have a goatee, or a vandyke, or whatever, so it only means not shaving on either side, but still...

I'm assuming 82 was being sarcastic; the post about TB giving the Yankees and Red Sox a run for the title because of the "gems they stole from us."

But I need a reality check! Do a lot of people really think the Dodgers sent Tampa Bay any players (other than possibly Guzman) who will be difference-makers in the AL East?

I realize someone here has a friend who works for the Devil Rays who says they are happy with the trades they made. I'm happy they're happy, but I don't think they're exactly objective. And I hope they haven't already spent that 2008 World Series money.

Lo Duca doesn't have a gambling problem. He has a gambling opportunity!

Brian Giles' OPS is down to .758. Giving him a huge free agent deal last season would have been very illogical.

From SI.com:

The New York Post reports that Mets catcher Paul Lo Duca, who is going through a divorce, is having an affair with a 19-year-old girl. On the bright side, unlike most Mets catchers Lo Duca won't have to defend his sexual orientation.

He's played 14 games with Montgomery.

14g/47ABs- .298/.431/.638
89g/292Abs- .260/.367/.438
53g/161ABs- .342/.422/.528

After 156g/500abs in the Southern League, he needs a promotion. He has nothing left to prove there.

Giles' OPS on the road is only .763.

120 Define difference maker. Swapping Hall for Navarro was a free upgrade for them at catcher. Jackson and Tiffany could be good, they probably won't be, but if either of them do anything at any point in their career, the Dodgers lose the trade.

121 Well, I guess now it can be told. The weekend after the LoDuca trade to Florida, someone I know who lives near someone who works for the Dodgers told me that his neighbor told him that LoDuca's gambling problems, including gambling debts to some bad people, was a major reason DePodesta traded him away.

This guy gave me to understand the news would come out imminently, back in '04. When it didn't I figured I should not repeat it. Now it can be told.

Why the Giles hate, bluetahoe?

118

The day a big truck backed into my dad's store and knocked it off its foundation was one of the happiest days in the Timmermann household.

My day finally got to retire. About six months before that happened, he finally got injured in a holdup when a robber slugged him in the face and broke his jaw while taking the money. It was a group of three who were robbing stores like that all over the East Valley. Eventually one of them ran into a store owner who was waiting for them and shot one of them and the police caught the group at the hospital.

127
I'll assume the committee (if/when reconvened) will find this "ironic."

The day a big truck backed into my dad's store and knocked it off its foundation was one of the happiest days in the Timmermann household.

But one of the unhappiest days for chickens everywhere

I'd certainly rather have Brian Giles than Lofton/Mueller/Tomko.

Even in a down Giles season, he'd still be an upgrade over Cruz/Repko.

THe goal is to put the best team on the field, not the least expensive.

The International Committee for the Determination of Irony is off today for a group outing to see a performance of "Oedipus Rex."

128 He's a Padre. And if I remember correctly, many columnists suggested we should sign him. That would have been a huge MISTAKE. Thank heavens the decision makers weren't listening.

Oh no, Michael Tucker's Gameday photo has him in a Washington cap!

132 So would I. But not for 3 years after this. I'll take my chances with Ethier/Kemp/Drew thank you very much.

133
I'll hope that choice is unrelated to your mother's anniversary

126 Difference maker in the sense that the probably sarcastic post 82 described: "Gems" who will be factors in the Rays "competing with" the Yanks and Red Sox for the AL East lead.

Actually, I think the Rays could be a serious contender some day (2008 seems a little optimistic). But I don't think the players the Dodgers sent them will be big parts of it. Navarro might be their starting catcher, but if they could upgrade there, they'd do it in a heartbeat. Guzman might eventually start for them, but probably not for a few years, and he'll have to overcome a lot of competition plus his own attitudes. Jackson and Tiffany seems like lost causes, but of course I hope I'm wrong. In any event, I don't see either of them pushing Scott Kazmir, except maybe his car if it breaks down on the way to Tropicana Field.

D-Rays- Jackson, Tiffany, Navarro, Guzman, Pedroza, Ruggiano

Dodgers- Hendrickson, Baez, Carter, Seo, Lugo, Hall

When you look at it in totality, it begs the question...WTF?

127 - Real comment or parody?

137

Nope, just looking for a play with a lot of irony in it.

134 Well, I for one thought that a reasonable deal for Giles would have been a good idea. I don't know that anybody argued for a "huge" 122 deal for him was a good idea.

It's only in hindsight -- with the emergence of Ethier and Giles's subpar season -- that it appears Giles would not have been a good fit.

If Ned had signed Giles -- and he did try, didn't he? -- I would have liked that deal. That it didn't work out, and that Ethier did work out so spectacularly, is great news for us...

141
Phew. Was there no Alanis concert for the committee to attend today...?

140 Real.

Back in 2004, when I was already a commenter here, I didn't want to repeat it just based on this guy's say-so, because I thought he might have a motive for putting the controversial trade in a good light. I figured if it was true, it would come out in the news, and when it didn't, I figured my first instinct was correct.

But now, since it's been reported publicly, I figure I'm on safe ground repeating it.

Thank heavens the decision makers weren't listening

Which difference makers?
And what exactly were they listening too?
Did not Colletti offer Giles more money than the Padres did?

Spinach is a good source of irony.

I was at the game last night, and Hawpe's HR was the hardest hit ball I've seen at DS in a long time.

142 I would have been aboard for Giles at 3 years at about 8 mils per. If Giles had taken my proposal it would have been bad for us I think.

I'd even think about trading Giles for Drew straight. Only because Giles doesn't have the nagging injury history.

Didn't Giles want to stay in the San Diego area?

138. Tiffany was put on the shelf for the year, correct? Do we have a prognosis of how he is recovering in order to call him a lost cause?

143 No, but the Coincidence Committee will be attending an Alanis concert later in the week.

145 It might have been Reynolds and/or Kruk but they thought we should have given Giles that 4th year to definatley land him.

147 Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Giles miss the first third of last season due to injury?

LoDuca's gambling problems, including gambling debts to some bad people, was a major reason DePodesta traded him away.

Sounds like a mafia story.

148 That's what I recall, too.

I guess I'm just saying that if Giles continues to perform at this pace -- and if Ethier continues to perform at some reasonable facsimile to his own 2006 pace -- we can breathe a sigh of relief that he signed with the Padres.

Mike DeFelice has a Nats hat on in his Gameday photo too! This is bad. Very bad.

103.

I think you could make the argument that you'd rather have Lowe pitch the 8th last night after 7 innings and 83 pitches of one run baseball than Saito or Broxton.

Brian Giles has played in over 150 games the majority of his career. Injury wise, ther's no comparison between Drew and Giles.

Ricky Ledee with the base knock.

With Barmes/Sullivan/Francis due up, I dont think it would have mattered whom pitched.

How can anyone say they are glad that Giles is not on the team, then say they would trade Drew for him? It makes no sense.

Ned also tried real hard to sign Giles, offering more money than SD. Giles just wanted to stay in San Diego. Giles also has Ledee-like hamstrings so he's as big an injury risk as Drew.

Tie game in New York!

I said I would think about trading Giles for Drew straight up.

I don't think this team would be well served to have Drew and Giles both signed up long term. Especially with the emergence of Ethier and Kemp on the way.

Endy Chavez with the sac fly! 3-2 Mets in the second.

I take it the most of you prefer mlb gameday. When I'm not watching or listening I prefer yahoo gameday.

Rally started by Ricky Ledee. That release is already paying dividends. LOL...

Ricky Ledee was not released. He was claimed on waivers by the Mets. If the Dodgers released him, they would be paying his salary. But they aren't. The Mets are.

This is a difference WITH a distinction.

161 OK, WHY would you consider trading Drew for Giles straight up? Because Giles is less expensive?

Even with all the grief he has taken for his lack of power this season, Drew is still slugging .452. Giles is slugging .379. I don't know what Giles is making.... would the difference in their paychecks (assuming it's spent on, say, a starting pitcher) make up for the difference in their bats?

Wow, I fly to MKE with the family next week. Looks like a major headache in store.

166 - My sister-in-law's family is visiting from New York starting Sunday.

[85,86] Or stealing home?

The Cardinals lead the Reds 2-0 in the third.

In the NL, teams never go on winning or losing streaks. They just make strategic retreats.

In Kent's first game back, in his second at bat, he hit the first pitch for a home run, for the season on first pitch connections, he is .386/.404/.705 with 2 doubles and 4 home runs (and 2 HBPs) in 44 plate appearances.

Does that excuse Kent for popping up on the first pitch against a pitcher he had only faced once before, maybe not, the game I referred to, Kent had a lot of success against Fogg, he doubled in his first at bat and perhaps the Rockies were still unsure if Kent had recovered from his injury.

Just some food for thought.

167 TSA says no liquids on flights, excluding baby formula and medicines which require inspection.

http://tinyurl.com/qvx8s

Bob, will you inspecting all liquids and gels that people try to bring into the library?

171 I also heard that parents must taste the formula before boarding.

Mets announcers just said that the worst thing you can do with the bases loaded and down five runs is to hit a grand slam. Seriously.

171 - When I first heard the news this morning, I wondered about baby formula. During takeoff and landing, it's giving your baby something to drink that helps ensure that they swallow for their ears sake.

Will the flight attendants make an extra trip down the aisle with beverages now? (I realize this isn't the biggest issue today.) Kids are gonna want their juice!

172

That's a horrific thing to contemplate at my workplace.

There's only so much malt liquor and fortified wine one can sip during the day.

174 I see a huge SABR project with Bob leading the way.

177

I've talked to Phil Birnbaum about the idea about hitting a double with the bases loaded and hitting a grand slam in the -5 situation.

He didn't seem to think there would be much difference and people don't take into account that a runner on second can also be turned into an out on a hit. Unlike a guy hitting a home run.

176 I used to work in the liquor department of my local drug store and I always was restocking the 48s (Colts) and the 8s (small Miller bottles), once I became old enough to drink, I tried both and could not understand the appeal.

Personally I liked the old Schlitz Malt Liquor ads with Billy Dee Williams.

178 The only things I can think of is that generally pitchers pitch better with no runners on base, defenses can play straight up, etc. But I cannot see that overcoming the guaranteed runs.

179 Weren't those Colt .45 ads? I'm not sure, but I think BDW was a Colt spokesdude.

181 Indeed: Colt 45.

http://tinyurl.com/pwusa

Colt .45 ad.

120-

The point isn't that we traded those players away, it's that we traded them away for redundant and/or useless players.

I feel like I've said this a million times, but I like to hear myself talk, so it's cool.

183 I believe there is no decimal point in Colt 45 when referring to the beverage.

There would be a decimal point when referring to the firearm, the Colt .45.

I could be wrong about this.

181-183 Wow, thanks for the memory correction. Did not know that BDW translated out of the hood. LOL, maybe it was his years as Lando and that DA in the first Batman movie.

174, 177 Didn't we already cover this?

The Mets' announcers are wrong, of course. The absolute worst thing you can do when down five runs with the bases loaded is ground into a triple play.

Malt liquor is the favorite of unemployed, homeless men, according to study:
http://tinyurl.com/larle

The Dodger Stadium parking lot is a good source of empty malt liquor bottles.

Sign of the apocalypse: I'm watching the Cards-Reds game right now and the ESPN announcer just said, "David Ross has proven to be a pretty steady power hitter."

184 I agree. We didn't hit any jackpots with the Devil Ray deals.

What I was responding to was the notion that we gave TB "gems" who will help make them contenders in the AL East by 2008.

Uh, no, we didn't. We gave them spare parts and got spare parts back. A lot of people want to point out that the spare parts we got back aren't as good as the spare parts we gave up. Fine. So long as we understand, we're talking about spare parts. Not gems.

184 I know, I understand the argument but I do think what happens is that you (and I don't mean you in particular) begins to take out that sentiment on the player as well as the guy who made the trade.

Did Julio Lugo wake up on July 31st and asked to be traded for Joel Guzman and Sergio Pedroza?

Did Ned bring him in knowing the possibility of losing him at the end of the year and if Kent and Garciaparra came back, there would be a crowded infield.

If you want to bang on Ned for this and other moves, fine but he won't be the only GM that makes these deals, most GMs do.

But lets try and keep the attacks limited to their play, if they make a mistake fine but don't bring out the feelings about the trade themselves to the individual player. Only in rare cases (see Bobby Abreu) do they ever have any control where they go.

I was a big supporter of signing Giles and Ned did everything he could to sign him. It was just dumb luck that he decided to take the home discount and his declining skills to San Diego. His on base skills continue to be first rate but his power is declining at a rate that could make the contract onerous for SD. We should be thrilled that he is toiling in SD. No need to jump on any posters who suggested signing him, since the GM was trying to do the same thing and you think the GM walks on water.

171,175-

My wife and daughter are actually at Denver airport right now (she's visiting friends there and then moving on to Minnesota to do the same). She missed her flight this morning because of the mess, but she has a later flight (she's flying on to Minneapolis).

Anyway, she said they made her throw away all liquids at the gate except for our daughter's milk. They didn't make her taste it in front of them. She said, though, that they're telling her they will check carry-on again before they board and they'll have to throw out any drinks they may have bought after clearing the screeners. The milk will still be OK though.

191 Again, define gem. If Navarro, who will probably be the Rays catcher for the next five years isn't one, who is? Potential superstar talent? It's really hard to give that up, and considering we did give up Guzman who very well could be a star, it's not the most ringing endorsement for Colletti's abilities.

189
Usually broken ones - anyone who parks in the lots outside of the pavillions is asking for a flat tire. It is pathetic the Dodgers don't do anything about the drinking in the parking lots while trying to appeal to the family crowds.

I always park on Stadium Way off the Scott exit because my car is probably safer now, outside of the parking lot then inside of it and I never never sit in a parking lot jam which enables me to stay to the end of every game without worrying how many hours that will cost me to get home.

191-

I agree with that, but at least there's potential for the players we sent over to progress into something good.

All those players, except Tiffany, were at one time or another top prospects. Their stars have certainly fallen, but they're still young and have a chance to improve. After all, I think not a single one of those players is older than 24.

The stuff we picked up are proven quantities, and even worse, proven mediocre players.

PS- Wayne Krivsky is on ESPN right now. He sounds really hard-boiled for some reason.

I wonder if the sky is red this morning. Let me look out my window.

Yep, the sky is red.

Supposedly the plan involved setting off a plastic explosive with an iPod.

While that could be terrifying, it does have a bit of McGyver feel to it.

Tied up in New York.

195
Guzman could easily still be a gem. Just given the age of Navarro and his price makes him a gem. GM's will pay the price of the future for the current. I'm sure Ned will listen very little to the scout who recommended Hendrickson and that is something he will need to learn as he figures out who gives him the best information.

Tied up in New York.

I thought we weren't gonna talk about Lo Duca anymore.

If the premise is to be accepted (and it is, decidedly, not to be accepted), Guzman is like a spare transmission. Lugo is like a spare cupholder.

Kevin Towers did an excellent job in getting Josh Bard and Cla _____ from the Red Sox.

That trade along with getting Young/Gonzalez from Texas has them in 1st place.

Where did this Bard guy come from? The man can hit.

Josh Bard was acquired from the Red Sox for Doug Mirabelli.

201-

I certainly hope so. I mean, a scout that recommends Hendrickson is not doing his job very well.

Assuming that the scout ignored all the peripheral numbers that indicated he was pitching way over his head, just watching Hendrickson is not likely to impress anyone. The only pitch I can remember that he has is a fastball, and it's not a very good one. I have no clue what off-speed stuff he throws, but it certainly hasn't left an impression on me.

More likely, I don't think anyone reccommended Hendrickson. I think Coletti saw that we needed pitching, he saw that he was a lefty, and he saw the fluky ERA, and just got fooled.

It can happen to any GM, but I'd like to see these kind of "buying" patterns curtailed.

203

My Prius has some really good cupholders. There are six of them!

204 He's 28 and before this year he hit .238/.289/.370

Cla ___ (that sidearmer, can't remember name) was included. Right?

Cla Meredith

The comment on Lugo is ludicrous not because it's a personal attack but because it's illogical. Anything Lugo does to pad his stats helps the team. Anything he does that hurts the team hurts his stats. It's really quite simple. Baseball is an individualistic game, played by teams. There's no teamwork, no joint production. It's perfectly incentive-compatible.

I've seen one exception to that - and I've seen it twice now. Bunting in a tie game or down one with a runner on 2nd and 2 outs. I saw Ichiro do it, and I just saw Furcal do it (though I'm not positive of the 2-outs with Furcal). In this case, a fast guy can get himself a hit without appreciably helping the team, and if the batter on deck is worse, then he might be hurting the team's chance of scoring. Even then, if the runner on 2nd advances, there are more ways to score from 3rd than from 2nd (WP, etc.).

In baseball, unlike, say basketball, you WANT your players to be selfish, as long as they're successful at it.

Bard scares me the most in that lineup. When Cruz misjudged that 18 second fly ball in extra innings to Barfield I knew Bard was going to drive him home. I just knew it.

Dodger shortstops, Prius cupholders.

1) Come in sixes
2) Absurdly expensive
3) Have no functional use

204 He also masterminded the Vinny Castilla trade.

Again, if we want to pick out the good deals fine, but obviously over the years there are going to be both good and bad deals, the Texas deal looks one sided because Eaton has been hurt all year and Gonzalez has done better than some expected, Young has regressed a little since July.

188- and the favorite of any poor college student wanting to get drunk. It's pretty disgusting

Phil Birnbaum's Power Point presentation on whether players in their "walk" year outperform what is expected.

http://tinyurl.com/qtys9

His conclusion was no.

1st and 2nd. No one out. Wright batting in New York. They gots to score. They just gots too.

4-3 Mets after an RBI double by Wright. Bases loaded and no outs.

204Career year, see Mark DeRosa

The trade that Towers made with Texas is what is floating his boat right now. No one expected A Gonzales to display this kind of power but C Young was already a better pitcher then the free agent to be Eaton. It was a great trade.

206
I don't think Ned makes a move without consulting his scouting staff. Ned is not someone who would just look at some stats and make a move without some input from his staff. That is just my opinion but I've never gotten the feeling that Ned just does things on his own without gathering some input first.

David Wright is the best 3B in New York, I will glove slap anyone who wants to challenge that statement.

218 And old friend Jose Valentin up.

Again, if we want to pick out the good deals fine...

It sure would be nice to read the fine posters of dodgerthoughts.com occasionally discuss the good trades and signings that our beloved Dodgers have made the past 10 months instead of harping on Tampa Bay deals over and over and over and over and over and over and over again.

And the old friend comes through. 6-3 Mets.

213 4) Both hold cups like nobody's business.

216 Interesting, because in Baseball Between the Numbers they determine that players do get better in their walk year.

213

My Prius cupholders are really nice and get quite a bit of use. They have never failed to hold a drink for me.

Jose Valentin has 9 career grand slams. Doesn't Willie McCovey still have the record with 21, you would of thought in the steroid/bad pitching and small ballparks, someone would have broken that by now.

WOO HOO 30 minutes away form a 3 way tie in the west?

Lou Gehrig hit 23 grand slams.

222 Now you are really trying to bait people aren't you. LOL.

229 My bad, I really should know that but my initial statement still stands.

219-

That's fair. If true though, the state of our scouting must be awful.

"Tampa's got this really tall guy who throws 88-87. His body is so large, like, it blocks a lot of line drives up the middle. Also, he has a solid beard."

218 How can the bases be loaded after an RBI double?

225 Which he mentions in his presentation.

If the Padres lose today, do the employees get ice cream at the Stadium today?

222-

I believe most people were excited by the Izturis for Maddux deal. Also, for the most part, the Betemit deal was well-received.

I guess it turns out a healthy Jose Valentin would have really helped us out a lot last year. Injuries happen, but in hindsight signing Valentin as a 1 year stop gap did make sense. He wouldn't have been a bad option over a healthy Bill Mueller this season either. I'm just glad DePo didn't shell out the big bucks long term to the likes of a Cory Koskie. I think he was the biggest free agent out there after Beltre signed in Seattle. Great NO sign on DePo's part.

222 - "It sure would be nice to read the fine posters of dodgerthoughts.com occasionally discuss the good trades and signings that our beloved Dodgers have made."

It happens all the time. Open your eyes.

233 They intentionally walked Delgado to get to Valentin.

For a current example of guys who are terrible in their contract year, look at Doug Davis. His strikeout and walk rates have taken a dive this year, so consequently, he's killing my fantasy team.

230 - It's true. I wish people would focus more on the positive and less on the negative, especially since we're playing good ball. It seems like a lot of people want to focus on the negatives and I could understand that a bit when we went through that 1-13 stretch. I was about as negative a nelly there was for those 2 weeks.

7-3 Mets now on a Michael Tucker double.

But the explosive Padres offense still has a couple more chances at bat.

241 You did start the whole discussion with your comment.

Aside from the overdramatic hyperbole about Julio Lugo, I haven't seen very many negative posts. Even last night's loss had some really funny comments.

222. That's disingenuous. Colletti gets all matter of props for Ethier, and most here approved of Sanchez for Seo at the time. The Betemit/Aybar trade has not been condemned - I'd say opinions ranged from good to even. If you think other trades have been unfairly criticized, that's fine, but that stems from a difference of opinion over their value, not a refusal by anyone to acknowledge success.

If you want to challenge a statement, cite and challenge a specific statement. Don't generalize. This is the most diverse-yet-civil board I've ever seen. Let's keep it that way by avoiding overgeneralizations or by claiming oppression for ones opinions about the team.

I reckon when I read a positive comment I don't think anything of it. Kind of like washing your hands. I reckon when I read a negative comment it stands out more and gets noticed more in me noggin.

241. Some people are just pessimists or very set in how they see things. You're not going to change them. I usually like your positive outlook, but I don't care for it when you get a little snide towards those who disagree with you and try to bait them. While others do the same, it just seems kind of beneath your sunny persona.

246 - Which is why you need to spend less time generalizing about what other people say and more time thinking about what you say.

Bluetahoe, your inability to see yourself as a significant part of the problems we've had here lately is one of the most frustrating things I face here each day. You wish for everyone else to improve their behavior, and yet you don't take any steps to improve your own.

Tony Larussa used Jason Marquis as a pinch hitter today. He grounded out to first, but the idea of it still made me smile.

Did anyone comment that Kershaw pitched again last night? Five innings, two runs, six strikeouts.

My question for the day is that are the Mets that much better, 2 one run wins and now a blowout after a tie game in the 7th.

Have to like their lineup but after Pedro, Glavine, Trachsel(sp.), El Duque and Remember the Maine, are there starters that much better than ours assuming we get the last 2 week version of them. As for the pen, Wagner is good but they have some interesting parts to get there.

I think they are better but if you can pitch to them, we'll see.

250 The stats from that game did not come up until this morning, thanks Jon.

Nate, if you read this far, do you think Kershaw has a little Matt Garza in him if you know what I mean for 2007.

The Cardinals are beating St. Louis 5-0. So if we get back on our winning ways we jump ahead of Az and SD and tie Cincy. I admit I don't like our pitching match ups against SF and it irks the tar out of me SD is going to miss Oswalt and Clemens, but we are 3-0 in games started by Jason Schmidt.

Irks the tar?

I think everyone is assuming a Cards-Mets NLCS. I say NO. They aren't heads and shoulders better than the like of us, SD, AZ, Cin, Hou.

254 - I really hope that doesn't have a meaning I'm truly unfamiliar with.

I want to find a copy of this government publication:
http://worldcat.org/oclc/21337810

Quick question, has NYM given Heilman a chance to get into the starting rotation?

258
Heilman hasn't started a game this season I believe.

258. He's their primary 8th inning guy now that Sanchez is out. Thats what Keith Hernandez said Tuesday, anyways.

I think part of the challenge here (on DT) relates to how different people respond emotionally to events, and update their beliefs about the future.

Some take a "stuff happens" approach, neither (to paraphrase Vinnie's mantra about successful players) getting too high or too low, but just plugging along no matter what fortune brings.

Others, either by personality or purposefully, revel in the roller-coaster aspect of sports. A loss is sad, a win exhilirating. Streaks in either direction can drive one to extreme depression or euphoria.

Some in the first group see the reactions of the second group as overly dramatic, and respond by taking the devil's advocate position on everything.

Some in the second group see the non-reactions of the first group as lack of passion, or smug superiority about the long run, and respond by amping up the hyperbole.

And this is part of the fun of following sports. I don't think either group is right or wrong (though I'm definitely in the first group myself), but I think as long as we understand where a commenter is coming from (and by now, we know each other's "types" pretty well) we can avoid finding offense where none is intended, and we can avoid the temptation to bait one another in a destructive quest for the moral high ground.

Cue Rodney King.

258 No, because they're the Mets.

Bluetahoe, your inability to see yourself as a significant part of the problems we've had here lately is one of the most frustrating things I face here each day. You wish for everyone else to improve their behavior, and yet you don't take any steps to improve your own.

Just wanted to make sure this important and often overlooked point didn't go unnoticed.

It's especially frustrating when Jon goes out of his way to make a point like this and the person in question just keeps submitting comment after comment like nothing was ever said.

Could someone define hyperbole for me?

250 A few things, 50% of the outs recorded in his games have been by strike out. (48Ks in 32 IP).

Has walked 4 batters in 32 IP. 12/1 K/BB ratio.

WHIP - .81 (26 hits/walks in 32 IP)

At this point, hard to see aside from the financial consequences, why he needs to stay in the GCL. But with only the possibility of 3/4 starts anyway, might as well wait until next year to send him up.

Hyperbole:
Exaggeration used for emphasis. Hyperbole can be used to heighten effect, to catalyze recognition, or to create a humorous perception.

I have been tough on Furcal but that was a nice play in the hole last night to get the runner at 3b.

I think all games are important. But tonights game has to be the biggest of the year so far. Let's snap the loosing streak now and let's move into first place!!

Hyperbole-

exaggeration for effect, not meant to be taken literally.

That's from my little Webster's dictionary. I'm too lazy to go on the OED.

Hyperbole-

exaggeration for effect, not meant to be taken literally.

That's from my little Webster's dictionary. I'm too lazy to go on the OED.

263 - I guess I do bait on occassion. (I think I know what that means. Being a smart aleck at times. But I feel I'm not the only one.) I'll have to work on that.

269-

The second post is an example of hyperbole.

Jason Jennings has the thighs/buttocks of Mama Cass.
I'll take it that that's hyperbole.

The irony committee has all committed suicide at this point.

Tahoe is certainly an interesting poster.
I read his posts and think of cheerleaders.
"Lets go team"

One cannot argue with a cheerleader.
If you do, its seen as attempting to circumvent that person from doing their thing- "cheering".

This blog really has never been about cheerleading or pep rallies I dont think.
Tahoe does add that, although to an annoying level in my opinion.

Not having ever seen Mama Cass' buttocks I wouldn't know.

Ax² + Bxy + Cy² + Dx + Ey + F = 0

I can actually kinda see what bluetahoe is saying. It's not so much that trades are commented on (good or bad) when they're made, it's that the same bad trades (according to some) are harped upon incessantly.

It irritates me too because I'm not one to harp on past mistakes. We gave up Navarro for Hendrickson; alright, big deal, it wasn't a great trade but it's not gonna ruin our future. Making a clever jab at Colletti for his Devil Ray love once in a while is fine, but hearing multiple comments about it every day gets very tired and a bit frustrating if you ask me.

250. The score wasn't up on Rob's site this morning, so I completely missed it, thanks.

I should also thank Rob for all the work he does getting those up everyday and usually having some pretty good comments for each of the games.

I heard the funniest thing from the Braves game last night, to paraphrase, during an horrendous inning where a whole bunch of Braves relievers could not get anyone out, Skip Carey (I believe) said something like, "And heres ball 4 to walk in a run and the bases remain loaded, (pause) I wish I was too."

274 JoeyP and cheerleading, nah, I think he has a Ned doll at home that he alternatively stick pins in or just throws against the wall whenever he sees Julio Lugo.

But to be fair, he loved the Maddux deal. And I think he really likes Ethier but has to support Milton on principle and non-baseball related feelings which I can respect.

273- And just in the nick of time, too.

252 Garza had pitched several years at Fresno State, whereas Kershaw is fresh out of high school. Kershaw might make it to AA and 120 innings, but likely won't advance past either of those.

Can we talk about Aaron Heilman instead?

Anyone surprised Cruz hasnt hooked on with another team yet?

He's been out of work for awhile.

274 Not only do I generally display a positive attitude I feel I add a bit of knowledge and insight to the conversation at times. I really know a lot about baseball. Especially the past 15-20 seasons. I get to experience things must Dodger fans don't get to experience.

284-

I think he would be great for Oakland. He can play center right? They could platoon him with the immortal Mark Kotsay.

He can play center right?

That sounds like the softball rover position.

Padres are three outs away from losing again.
Nice piece up on the Griddle today about Bob's 1977 World Series experience. A must read. vr, Xei

287-

Or the worst player in kickball.

276 - Bob, I'm really bored. Can you give me a fairly tough algebraic eqaution to solve?

Tied for first once again! The Mets even sent out their B-squad today and took it to the Friars.

Here's a lesson, if you ever get offered a role on TV, make sure that your character's name is generic or otherwise you will be forever known as that character.

http://tinyurl.com/lgtut

Memorable character names:

1960's - Mary Ann/Ginger
1970's - Fonzie/John Boy
1980's - Tootie
1990's - see above referenced story
2000's - suggestions.

By memorable, I mean ones that can be referred to in a headline.

288 I wonder how much that ticket is worth on the collectible market.

282 Do you think it is more likely half a year at VB and then possibly a call up to Jacksonville. Though 19 in AA is pretty big jump.

276
Is the equation for a hyperbola.

What I find mildly amusing -- just looking at my own behavior -- is that I find myself rooting for Lugo (a player I never cared about much either way) simply because of how much people are ripping him here. In an odd way, it's sort of the flip-side of the Hee-Seop phenomena -- he was trashed (unfairly) by being the product of an unpopular trade in the main-stream media. Lugo is being trashed (somewhat unfairly, I think) for being the product of an unpopular trade in the blog/stat world.

I used to get really worked up over wins and losses, but in recent years I've found it to be more healthy to strive to keep an even keel about it all. There are really more things to be worried about.

Bringing up the past (be it Choi or Lo Duca or some of Ned's trades) really does seem to be counterproductive in the greater scheme of things.

Just my 2 cents.

296 One thing I find hard to do is root for a player I despise. Although I'm generally a positive petey there have been Dodger players I've despised. And its hard to root for those players. I even think subconsciously, (please forgive me dodgerlord), that I would rather see said player fail with the game on the line then deliver the big hit to win the game.

Because I've had these feelings I can't help but wonder if other Dodger fans have these same feelings about the players they despise.

Dodgers since All Star Break
LLLLLWLLLLLLLLWWWWWWWWWWWL

Padres since All Star Break
LLLWWLLLLWWWWLLWLLLWLWWLLL

Don't know what to make of it, but in some ways I like are momentum, karma, whatever more than the Padres.

I really know a lot about baseball. Especially the past 15-20 seasons. I get to experience things must Dodger fans don't get to experience.

Other than stalking LA players when they visit your hometown, I can't imagine what these things might be.

Either way, I've never been a big fan of own horn tooting.

I can't really think of any Dodgers I despise. I never really liked Gary Sheffield, but I still wanted him to do well while he was on the Dodgers.

If we ever traded for Barry Bonds though, that might be a different story.

292 Jon, I try to bring some levity and no one takes me up on it, I am sad.

299. I had a comment about tooting one's own horn, but I decided it might not be appropriate for dodgerthoughts.

299 I was just responding to a poster that thought of me mostly as a 'cheerleader.'

Very briefly I was trying to explain I am more than a cheerleader, hence the horn tooting.

I apologize if anyone else has mentioned this already, but here's a great explanation from Keven Chavez of the Pasadena Star-News for why neither Maddux nor Penny should wear no. 31. It was Piazza's number, and it should be retired.

http://tinyurl.com/fujwt

If the Dodgers staff gets ice cream today, they only get 1/3 of a scoop and they have to finish it before tonight's game ends.

303 If this year's team has you pumped I can't imagine how you survived 1988.

303

Yes, you and Oldbear have made quite a tandem from here to dodgers.com.

I generally stop talking to people who I am in eternal disagreement with (and there are many), but that's just me.

303 i think the comment was more about the way you went about showing you had unique things to offer the blog.

Not that you tooted your own horn, but how you tooted it.

304 Generally, the Dodgers don't retire numbers until that player is inducted into the Hall of Fame (and they are recognized for their achievements as a Dodger). Thus it is doubtful whatever number Maddux wears, that it will be retired.

The only number not retired for a Hall of Famer is 19, which was Jim Gilliam's and as many know he passed prior to 1978 playoffs and was given that honor by the team.

If and when Piazza gets elected, it will be interesting to see how the Dodgers deal with it. For instance, there is no doubt that Shaq will go to the Hall of Fame and that his number will be retired, the team has basically said that and I think when it happens, Shaq will have his night at Staples.

But with Piazza, while his awards and most gaudy of stats happened with the Dodgers, he did play more years with the Mets and went to the World Series with them. I'm sure Lasorda, if he is still around, will lobby for him to go in as a Dodger but unlike the other retired numbers, he will be the first to not have spent the majority if not all of his career with the team.

305 Will it be served in little blue helmets.

Maybe they can bring back Cool a Coos.

1988 was a different era. No internet. No radio. Games on TBS and that was basically it. No scores scrolling down the bottom of the screen. Sportscenter wasn't on every hour. No baseball tonite... Since you brought it up and I'm bored out of my mind I'm going to tell a little story that invloves the Dodgers and the human brain.

First off I willed the Dodgers to win it all in 1988. I knew they we going to win it and I can prove it. But not today.

Sportscenter would come on at 11:30PM and 2:30 Eastern during the season of 1988. When the season began I was in 9th grade. In 1988 the Dodgers were playing 99 of 162 in California. Really stinks for a fan living in the east. Still does today. I had to go to school so there was no point watching the 11:30 sportscenter to get the 5th inning score, so I would set my alarm for 2:28 to catch the 2:30 Sportscenter to get the result, and keep in mind there was no scrolling scores, you had to wait till they showed the highlights or just gave you the final. .

So my alarm would sound and I'd head down the steps to the TV room to catch Sportcenter. After about 1 month of doing this, the alarm wouldn't wake me up at 2:28 anymore. I would wake myself up at 2:27. This went on for 4 months. Even though I would set my alarm, it wasn't necessary. I would always wake up at 2:27. True story. This lasted through summer break and through the beginning of 10th grade.

301. All of the names you brought up from earlier decades are from sitcoms, do you think that there are enough sitcoms from this decade to have some typecast memorable names, perhaps Maeby from Arrested Development, but that's all I can really think of from this decade.

309. Isn't the difference also that basketball players don't go in with a designated team? If they did, I would hope that Shaq would go in as a member of the Magic.

312 I don't think it has to be a sitcom but since those tend to have more outlandish situations and are supposed to be funny, I think people tend to remember them more.

What I meant was those names can generate interest just by their usage.

Mary Ann or Ginger remains one of the great bar arguments of all time.

Fonzie is a cultural icon while John Boy still gets used in commercials.

Tootie is just funny.

Screech, see article, speaks for itself.

313 I don't think so, the only time this going in for a particular team comes up is for baseball because of the caps.

If Piazza were at all inclined to go into the Hall as a Dodger -- which I doubt -- the fact that the Shea fans cheered him on his first return visit there while the Dodger Stadium fans booed him on his first homecoming might have decisively tipped the balance to the Mets.

Bob, you've gotten absolutely no recognition for 276, so I figured I'd let you know that while it took me a moment, I appreciated it.

316 Pretty sure that the player, despite those deals that Boggs and some others made, have no impact on what team cap they wear.

203 Sorry to be so far behind, but I had to go live my iLife for a little while.

I think Steve's elaboration of my spare parts for spare parts analogy is brilliant. Yes, Lugo is a spare cupholder and Guzman is a spare transmission.

However, it's a spare transmission that, sitting in the box, no one's sure will actually work in an automobile. Whereas, a spare cupholder -- what you see is what you get.

I call Guzman a spare part not just because of his setbacks this season, but also because we had no place to play him in the foreseeable future. Agree or disagree, I think Colletti saw Guzman's value as diminished and diminishing further with time, so he sold him for as high as he thought he could. He probably could have done a little better.

But: If he'd traded him in the spring, he probably could've gotten Barry Zito. So this is not a Great Moment in GM History.

318 I thought they changed it specifically because of Boggs.

320 Nolan Ryan when in as a Texas Ranger
Wade Boggs as a Boston Red Sox
Dave Winfield as a San Diego Padre
Paul Molitor as a Milwaukee Brewer
Catfish Hunter had no insignia on his cap
Eddie Murray as a Baltimore Oriole

319- There's a significant chance that JtD will have a much better career than Ethier.

322 I'd say there is a chance, but I do think that there were always issues regarding where he was going to play.

In a way, he is similar to B.J. Upton, who always wanted to play SS but despite his athletism, just had issues making the plays as he went up the system.

There is no question that Joel has tremendous power potential, to me he could well be a Juan Gonzalez/Albert Belle type player. And he is young.

Unfortunatelly for him, he went to a team with prospects or young major leaguers that may keep him in AAA through at least next year.

It would not surprise me if Guzman can produce in the International League that he get turned around for some more prospects, probably pitchers, next year.

322 BTW, I always thought the Dodgers should have dealt with the issue earlier once they felt he was not going to project as a SS and put him in RF and left him alone.

Sure, there are those who would have criticized them but he could have dealt with those issues with the move back then and maybe he would have been ahead of Ethier by the beginning of this year.

322
Based on age? minor league production? historical production of 6'6 ex minor league SS moved to 1st base?

311. Your parents let you wake up at 2:30 AM everynight?

BTW, I, for one, appreciate the counterbalance that Tahoe's remarks provide. This site wouldn't be interesting if everyone agreed with each other all the time.

Hypothetical: It's 2008. Drew is injured or with another team. Who are your Dodger outfielders and first baseman? Ethier, Kemp, Loney and ...

Today's Baseball America released the results of Best Tools in the NL and AL.

Nomar rated second to Pujols as the best hitter.

Penny had the 3rd ranked fastball.

Raffy had one of the top strongest infield arms

Maddux had the best control.

One thing that always interests me is the rep that Bruce Bochy has, he was among the best managers. I know there is this knowledge that the Padres don't spend a lot of money but is he really among the best managers in baseball.

I generally stop talking to people who I am in eternal disagreement with (and there are many), but that's just me.

I'm going to go take nap. If there's a response to this comment I'll know I have a partner. If there isn't, I'll know I don't.

327 Longshot - Kyle Orr as a corner OF.

325- Based on minor league production considering age vs. level of competition. Also taking into account the glowing reviews of his potential scouts were willing to write every year but this one. And Ethier's LD%/BABIP. And a little bit of whim, I guess; it doesn't take too much of a chance to be significant.

329 I left it my comment in my room.

I just checked the LA Times list of the 100 Most Influential Southern Californians. The top 10 were in order and the next 90 were in alphabetical order.

I did not make the list.

327 Adam Dunn.

331 I guess that is the issue, he had a great 2004 season as young player in High A, followed it up with a pretty good year again as a young player in AA. I just think that his age vs. his competition begins to become less of an issue as he moved up to AAA because he clearly did not come close to dominating or at least putting up All-Star numbers. Combine that with some makeup questions and his positional issues, you started hearing things, I saw comments as early as May in scounting reports in Baseball Prospectus.

326 - The counterbalance is fine. For that matter, people are welcome to feel as positive or negative about the team as they like.

It's the way that the comments are presented and the way that other commenters are addressed that is my concern. This goes for everyone, including myself.

Look at dzzrtRatt, for example. His views are often in the minority here. Yet he neither makes himself into a martyr nor goes onto the attack. He just states his opinion calmly and clearly.

Look at Suffering Bruin. He liked Lugo's attempt to steal home. Even though he was in the minority, he not only expressed his opinion but did so with good humor. He was aggressively countered, but did not get defensive. And rather than curse here, he does all his cursing offline in front of his child, the way one should.

These guys are examples of people who are passionate about the team, feel alternately good and bad about its direction, are interested in expressing themselves but also listen with an open mind. They are very smart yet never act like they know everything. They don't make you feel bad for having a different opinion than theirs. And they don't beat a dead horse.

Maybe my mistake has been that I've been too focused on the negative, and that I haven't highlighted these kind of examples enough.

And rather than curse here, he does all his cursing offline in front of his child, the way one should.

The people on my conference call are wondering why I'm laughing.

Jon,

Just thought you might like to know that you got a brief mention in a funny Slate.com article today: http://www.slate.com/id/2147503/

His 2004 age per competition season was outstanding. Prior to that nothing he did was exceptional and he was considered a bust before his breakout in 2004. His 2005 and 2006 show nothing of the progress he made in 2004 and he's moved down the positional spectrum from SS to 1st base which is a significant drop.

Not defending the deal which I think was a crazy deal just don't understand the logic behind the significant chance statement but I guess I don't know what % significant chance means to you.

Anyway I wish JtD was still a Dodger so he could be dealt this winter for something we can use in 2007 but maybe Logan White can turn the 2 draft choices into usefull players for the 2010 team.

338 - So, does Neal Pollack want to out himself here and say hi?

341 - I'm not Neal Pollack, if that's what you're asking.. :-)

I want to know who Craig is too.

BTW, I, for one, appreciate the counterbalance that Tahoe's remarks provide. This site wouldn't be interesting if everyone agreed with each other all the time.

With or without bluetahoe, there is plenty of disagreement among the commenters about everything except the Giants. Everything else.

Heck, I'll eliminate the exception: I root for Barry Bonds. Howzat for edgy?

342 - So Adam isn't a clever screen name, then.

I am never going to post here again. This is not in support of Bluetahoe or anyone else, though I do agree he is held to a higher standard here than are some others. I have concluded that my comments are not of interest to anyone, even if they are in agreement with other posters. Yes, occasionally I get criticized but so do others. What disturbs me is that there is a different tolerance for people who have been here two or three years or for people who have a blog of their own. I suppose you could call that professional courtesy? Some of the comments are completely off topic and I find some of those very interesting and some boring and nonsensical, I imagine they strike most of you the same way, perfectly normal. I know I won't be missed and any information I could have input would have been ignored anyway. Please cancel my login authorization.

When I think of Taylor Buccholz pitching to Albert Pujols I chuckle.

Cesar Izturis pinch hits for Cubs 2B Ryan Theriot to open the ninth. Brewers lead 8-6 (they had lead 8-0). And he runs the count full . . . AND WALKS!!!!

----------------

That was a funny crack about SB. I hope that each of us will read Jon's comments today, and his many recent comments on civility issues, with care. Jon has specifically addressed bluetahoe today, but we are all part of the dialog here and we should all think a minute about whether our tone, word choice, and approach towards other comments is helping or combusting the conversation at this website.

330 Darn, I wish I hadn't already overused my "Ethier/Orr"™ joke...

Man, I feel really bad that my g/f had to go on a business trip to North Carolina for a couple days, leaving today. She always takes a couple bottles of water on the plane so as to not get dehydrated, so I'm assuming she had to throw those out (or drink them before in a massive chugging contest). Poor thing. :-( Hope they can offer her more than a teeny tiny bottle of water on the plane today. And people wonder why I hate flying.

Back to baseball... ESPN (Every Sports team from Providence to New York) - I'm wondering if the Dodgers will be on again before the season ends.

345 - Believe me, I wish I could write half as well as you or Pollack...

343 I'm Craig. But probably not the one you're looking for and don't pretend to represent all of Craigdom.

305 - A share of first for now until gametime. The Mets did their part, the Blue now has a second chance to jump into first. Since the Snakes are off tonight, we could be in first all to ourselves with the Priests and Snakes 1/2 game behind going into the weekend. I hope they wouldn't be cheap to the staff and give them a full sundae in a helmet.
337 - I agree. We are all welcome to agree or disagree but name calling each other is no good. We should be united in our love for the Blue, remember a house divided will fall. I have disagreed with the GM on the direction of the team, but it doesn't keep me from rooting for the players on any given day. My only caveat, if a Dodger GM signs Bonds, I may consider switching allegiances.

Cubs lose.

349 I'm taken to understand the Giants game is the Sunday Night ESPN game this week.

351 Did you read the article linked at 338?

On the Piazza retired number matter... I think most will agree that it was fairly certain when he left the Dodgers that he was a future Hall of Famer, and I think the classy thing for the Dodgers to do would have been to say, unofficially, no one gets to wear #31. That's basically what the Lakers have done with #34, it's not retired, but club policy is that no one gets to wear again (and will be retired once Shaq is done playing).

As far as what team Piazza enters the Hall for, I'd like to see it as a Dodger, but I think he's one of those few players that two teams have a legitimate claim on.

If I had to choose between constant cynicism and negativity, and "cheerleading," I'd probably reluctantly choose the latter, because it doesn't bring me down, though they both get old. But consistent negativity is particularly grating for its lack of fairness. Still, I think there's a difference between cheerleading and just being positive and excited about your team - but contributing something to the conversation vs. cut and paste "rah rah" posts. I don't think too many of us do that here.

Btw, BlueTahoe, I enjoyed your post in 311

327 I'd like to have Alex Rios, but we'd probably have to spend Billz, Elbert, or Kershaw to get him. A quick look through the Jays system suggests they don't have any 2B/3B prospects with a lot of pop (but maybe some more outfielders on the way up), so they might go for something like an Elbert/Denker for Rios swap. I dunno. Would you guys do it?

343-My first name is Craig also but I don't know if I am the one people are looking for.
349 - Other than Sunday night, I am not sure about when else the Dodgers will grace the ESPN channel. Out west, our regional fox channels show the game during the week so ESPN is always backed out. Maybe back east, you can see an occasional late night game on Wednesday that Berman calls their "Hotel California" games.

If bluetahoe's behavior is becoming a problem, can we just agree to abide by the reliable internet maxim, "don't feed the troll?" Usually problems like this go away if we don't give them the reactions they seem to enjoy.

354 Ahhh... Sorry, Sam, I did finally just read the whole thing. Fun article, btw. No, I'm not the paralegal Craig.

I do relate to the article because I, too, moved to LA for a couple of years (although I grew up in Sta Barbara) not too long ago and was very excited to be able to see the team in person again, and more often on TV. But then I moed back to SF, and yadda yadda. Anyway, nope not me.

In that Times 100 list, Arte Moreno is on it, but neither Frank nor Jamie McCourt are on it. I think they are going to be upset.

355. A big difference would be that #34's career was winding down and thus you could be relatively sure that his best moments were behind him and he would be remembered as a Laker, you couldn't really say the same about Piazza after he left, he had a long career to go and there was no clue as to what would happen and how he would be remembered.

My point in 327 is that some talk about there not being a place for Guzman, but I see at least a potential place for him. Some may feel that Guzman won't hit enough, and that's fine. But I don't think it's a case where there were too many outfielder/first basemen in the organization.

357. No, plus I don't think Denker is attractive trade bait after getting demoted this year.

355
iirc, no one wore number 6 for quite a while, in anticipation of garvey's election to the hall. i believe it was jolbert cabrera who was the first to wear it, and it has been soiled since then by grabowski and lofton.

of course, the likes of mitch webster got to wear number 20 between sutton's departure and his induction.

Pollack here. At last, my inane DT comments are going to start getting the attention they deserve!

Thanks for keeping me sane during this semi-insane season, y'all. Go Blue!

PS: Anyone got an extra ticket for Sunday night?

Why wouldnt Joel Guzman have had a place?
He certainly has a higher upside than James Loney. Loney's had a largely pedestrian career, and not shown the power required to be at least an average 1st basemen.

Joel Guzman has. 1st base may not be his optimal position, but considering the Dodgers have nothing at 1st base of substance in the minor leagues, I think there could be a place for Guzman.

If Guzman is the next Jermaine Dye or Juan Gonzales, I'm pretty sure they'd find a place for him.

367 - I think that's the problem. Nobody thinks Guzman will be the next Dye or Gonzales any longer.

And, aren't you being a little hard on Loney? He could still turn out to be an abover average first baseman, even if he lacks a little on power side.

From Deadspin: Justin Morneau became the first Twin to hit 30 home runs in a season since 1987. Isn't that insane in this day and age?

363 Oh, I guess I totally read that wrong. I clearly agree with your assessment that we aren't stacked with OF/1B - I mean, I immediately began thinking of options outside the organization. I suppose that thinking out how to pry top players from other teams is an interesting exercise anyhow.

364 No, you wouldn't do it, or no, you don't think the Jays would do it? As far a Denker goes, he's really just a sweetener in a proposal like that. Elbert is the prize, and seeing as by 2008 (which was, per Jon, when I was thinking of) I believe Rios will be into his arbitration years, Elbert seems like a good return to me.

362 - very true. But there is some precedent for my approach, look at Ryan and the Angels - though I can't say for certain that anyone wore #30 for the Angels between the time Ryan left and the number was retired.

Also to reiterate, the Dodgers essentially chose James Loney over Joel Guzman in their evlauation of the prospects.

However, I tend to think there was bias involved in this decision. Logan White picked Loney. In fact, I think Loney was White's first ever Dodger draft pick. The links to whomever signed Joel Guzman are gone. Loney is White's guy. Guzman wasnt. End of story.

I think its a case of a certain biasness involved.

I should clarify that in my last post, when I said "nobody," I meant nobody who matters (ie, those making decisions in the Dodgers front office).

370. I wouldn't do it based entirely on Elbert, starting pitching is just too great a commodity, especially to part for just an outfielder.
I was just adding that Denker most likely has 0 trade value even as a sweetener.

In 2005, Guzman had a better season (including a higher slugging percentage) than Loney.

In 2006, Loney is having a better season (including a higher slugging percentage) than Guzman.

How do I choose who will be better? I choose to keep both and see what happens.

339- Was he really considered a bust at 18? I didn't know that. I looked at his numbers, in comparison to other 20 year olds playing AA once, and he was middle of the pack. 20 year olds playing AA, though, are a group comprised of players like David Wright and Miggy Cabrera, and some non-superstars. I should look for that. But not now. I vacillated between significant and non-negligible. The latter sounded too weaselly.

I do think the fact that Guzman defensively doesn't have a "home" - his "natural" position of SS wasn't one he was necessarily a defensive whiz at. He could turn into a productive 3B or a productive OF or 1B, none of that would surprise me, but I think his lack of a position mixed with what seemed to the Dodgers an immaturity, a souring of attitude, contributed more to his rapid descendency in their own rankings this year. I don't think they were keen on trading him last year.

I think Loney is a great defensive first baseman and won't have the power potential Guzman has, but could see increased power alongside his solid bat otherwise. So, anyway, it may indeed be in part because White had a bias for Loney, over Guzman, but I think all these factors above had more to do with it.

SI.com's Gennaro Filice takes on the nonsensical Angels vs. Dodgers debate in his latest column and claims that the Angels have won the battle for So Cal.

http://tinyurl.com/l5b5p

By the way, the type of analysis found in Filice's column used to drive me crazy, but now I'm too jaded to care. (Example: "The Dodgers offense is a bit more potent and their defense is definitely superior. But the team from Anaheim has a notable edge in two big areas: pitching and managing.")

A PS to my 377 - I do agree the Dodgers should have held on to Guzman for now, though. Although I'm happy the Dodgers have Lugo, that's the one trade/move they've made this summer that seemed a little much to me. But we'll see.

366- I gave your Anthology to my sister for Christmas a couple of years ago. She's looked at me funny, ever since.

366 Howdy. The link above looped me back to the Maelstrom this afternoon -- was laughing hard enough to earn a stern email from my office neighbor.

What exactly is a sour attitude?

How could a player go from the #1 ranked player in the whole system (Guzman in 2005), to having a poor attitude worhty of dismissal?

Wouldnt Guzman's negative personality traits have shown up earlier than just this season, if he in fact had any?

366 - Thanks for the mention, Neal.

The links to whomever signed Joel Guzman are gone. Loney is White's guy. Guzman wasnt. End of story.

In the interests of fair play (since I find myself agreeing with the substance of what JoeyP writes more often than the substance of what, say, bluetahoe writes), I'll whine about this post too. It might be right (the reason that Guzman is gone and Loney is not), but it might not be. One thing it is not, at least not in any way that can be demonstrated, is the "end of [the] story."

I think it's statements like this that tick people off. For you, this factoid is sufficient to explain the outcome. For me, it's not within a mile of sufficient. Not unless I assume a whole bunch of other stuff that isn't in evidence (for example, that Logan White was decisive in the Guzman trade, AND that White is either petty enough to let pride trump evaluation of talent or dumb enough to let bias cloud his judgment).

It's an intriguing tidbit, but no more. Asserting certainty when all one has is speculation is just the sort of thing that baits other commenters.

How about instead of "this is the answer, end of story," something like "I wonder if it's a coincidence that..." At least the 2nd way, there's no false implication about insider knowledge).

My pleasure.

As for the Dodgers-Angels "debate," any true Angeleno (increasingly gentrified Highland Park, representing!) is a Dodger fan, period. Orange County is another world...

383 It's easy to be happy when you're a young kid working your way up and people keep talking about your potential. It's more difficult to keep a good attitude when you feel like you're being slighted when others are called up ahead of you.

Plus, it's not really a dismissal, it's a trade. We didn't go Josh Hamilton on him or anything.

383 I just don't get how the organization could sour on Guzman so quickly. This guy was the golden boy in Spring Training, and now, he has no hope of being a major leaguer.

I don't think White's a huge part of it, though. He's been around for several years and until about two months ago, Joel Guzman was the future.

385 - Yes, I agree.

I'm guessing Royster and the Jacksonville manager had some input into the whole Guzman thing. At least I'd want his manager's input before considering trading him.

386 Nice column! I'm sure Jon is thrilled to have DT forever associated with pre-game toking. :)

383 Just reporting what I've heard from a few sources about the trade, is all. Not saying I think all of it is fair, either. I do agree with GoBears isn't so petty that he'd give up on someone just because he wasn't involved in his original development. And it is surprising how fast he fell in the eyes of the Dodgers, but fall he did, and there are some reasons for it - some of it is less Guzman than the trade for Ethier, the signing of Furcal, LaRoche at 3rd in the future, and the position issues I mentioned. I think there are even some things in his development, or what the Dodgers thought was a too slow development, that we haven't heard all of. (Partially because they wouldn't want to sour the Devil Rays on him when trying to trade.)

Not the end of the story, but certainly a part of it.

392] Weirdly deleted from above, should read: "agree with GoBears that Logan White isn't so petty that..."

383 I live in NV.

I have gone to over 15 home games of the 51s.

The first 4-5 games I went to, he was cheered mightily and announced in the 4th spot in the order like he was the star of the team. He was cheered everytime he came to the plate...more loudly than any other player. Ethier though started to get very well liked, especially by the ladies before he was called up for good.

When he came back from his stint in L.A. you could tell from the stands he had changed. Specifically his body language was negative and he swung at pitches anywhere without seeming to want to make contact.

It was palpable enough for 51s fans to start to regularly boo Guzman. Not just a blanket boo when he came up to bat, but booing him after mailed in swings and especially after a strikeout and not running out his grounders.

The last game I attended, the night they gave away bats, he was not in the lineup.

So maybe 1/2 of about 3,000 people noticed enough to boo their own player.

He was not a pleasure to watch play for me either although I never booed him.

Draw your own conclusions.

I don't doubt the reports of Guzman's bad attitude, what I question is the idea that a 21-year-old's attitude can't be improved.

You know, those Salinger kids on Party of Five used to sulk, but they ended up growing up and being pretty responsible, I think. Except for Owen.

I think it's worth remembering that Ned consummated the Lugo deal very quickly, and it's likely that he didn't get many scout's opinions on the deal. I wouldn't be completely surprised if some scouts in the system hated the deal. If Ned made the deal as fast as has been reported, how many guys could he have talked to? Smith and Ng probably knew about it, but nothing that I've read or heard has stated that White knew about the deal, much less approved of it.

Repko in RF tonight in place of Drew. Lugo is sitting.

360 - Wait - This is strange. I don't remember mentioning my occupation but I am a paralegal and my name is Craig but I was born a SoCal resident and have been a Dodger fan at 7 years old in 1968. Prior to that, I was interested in other things beside sports. I do remember in the 70's listening on my transistor radio under my pillow to Vinnie long after I should have been asleep. I always thought I got away with it but my Dad told me many years later he knew I had it on, he could hear the static. I guess he just let me live with the consequences, still had to go to school even if I was sleepy.

394

The preferred last line to that now is "You do the math."

I'd prefer Loney in RF against the righty Jennings, but I'm guessing Little wants a better defender out there for Billingsley.

396 I'm going to give some credit here and say that he wouldn't trade Guzman without thinking long and hard about it.

391 - At least there was a designated driver, right?

The biggest question with the Guzman trade was not whether the Dodgers saw him in their future plans, but how they concluded that he was worth so little on the open market.

Totally unrelated, let me commend Bob's latest piece over on the Griddle. Its a good story.

I haven't read every comment since last night's game so maybe someone brought this up, but I haven't seen it anywhere. Here's my question: Do defensive replacements in the late innings ever work? Or more broadly -what is the best way to use your defensive replacements and make double switches? When Grady finally pulled Lowe he brought in Betemit, moved Lugo and moved Kent. I realize that's more of double/triple switch move based on the next inning's batting lineup than a defensive replacement, but it got me thinking about the late inning defensive replacement and how it seems to be a really bad idea to take a guy who has played the entire game at one position and switch him to another or bring a guy in off the bench to play the final inning in the field. In last night's case wasn't there a simpler solution than moving around the entire infield? When you make a double switch how far down in the batting order does the pitcher's spot need to be to make it worthwhile? A more routine Betemit for Lowe/Lugo double-switch would have put the pitcher in the 5th spot instead of the 8th spot - are those three spots worth shuffling around the infield?

More thoughts on the defensive replacement: From the few Giants game I see (basically the ones against the Dodgers), Felipe loves the late inning defensive replacement and it always seems to come back to bite him. In fact, I usually nod in approval when Felipe brings in the replacement, and think to myself "that's the guy that will botch the fly ball or miss the cut-off man next inning". I mean really, how bad would your current fielder need to be to have a replacement fare better coming in completely cold (altough I suppose I can understand the Bonds defensive replacement because he is really looking slow in the field this season)?

Any of the more stat minded DT folks have any way of analyzing this?

Anybody else hear Josh Rawitch on KROQ's Kevin and Bean morning show today? I only caught the tail end of it, but the radio guys were bagging on the "stitch and pitch" promotion where they give out knitting supplies or something. Josh was very civil about the thing, sounds like a cool guy.

I will be very wary driving on the Pasadena Freeway after Dodger games now.

Hey Benaiah (sp?) -- good luck to your millionaire buddy in the WSOP.

401 I'm sure Ned had thought long and hard about Guzman, and had labeled him expendable. I'm just wondering if everyone else in the organization would have approved of the deal, knowing all we would get is a glorified utility hitter gone at the end of the season. My guess, and it's only a guess, is that the scouts, including White, had given Ned the thumbs up to deal Guzman if it improved the major league team.

You should always be careful driving on the Pasadena Fwy.

However, the article clearly described partaking before the game but after arriving at the Stadium.

404 There's no statistical analysis behind this but just thinking about it tells me that defensive replacements are almost never worth it unless the guy is immobile.

There's not that much difference between the ground that say, Lofton and Repko can cover, so for the replacement to be worth it, a guy has to hit a ball in the space between what one guy can catch and what the other guy can, the hit has to actually prevent an important run from scoring, and all of this has to happen in the span of three outs. All in all, a defensive replacement probably helps one out of every nine or ten times.

401 Also, you have to suspect that the deal that Colletti was working on was Guzman for Maddux. The Cubs were probably asking for Kemp or LaRoche or something. If you believe Ned, the Lugo deal was an afterthought, something he came up with to replace Izturis and make the Maddux deal possible. That's if you believe him; I have trouble paying attention when the guy talking is wearing a cat on his head.

403 From what I've read on the deal, Ned wanted Lugo, and Guzman was the lowest Friedman would go. I doubt Ned views Lugo as worth very little, and in his mind was more than worth whatever Guzman might become.

Guzman does have a history of bad attiude. in 2003, even though he didnt play well in low a, he was promoted to high a because he pouted and such. I think Canuck can offer more insight in that but it was so long ago i forgot the details.

Tthinking about it more, it probably less than that. The difference between a really good and really bad defender is about 14 runs every 100 games (this is comparing a 93 rate2 to a 107). So throwing Jim Edmonds out there instead of Kenny Lofton is only going to save .015 runs an inning. Given that defensive replacements only play an inning at a time, they're only going to make a difference once every 66 games.

414 - The fans of the 1986 Red Sox might still find that difference significant :)

415 That immediately came to mind for me, too, but its an extreme example. Buckner pretty much was immobile at that point in his career, and he was hurting.

The other side of the coin is that Cody Ransom was a defensive replacement.

404. That's a fair question. I doubt it's ever been analyzed, insofar as the extant measures of defensive ability are so iffy.

Included in your question is the point that some managers, including Little and Grady seem to be in love with the double-switch. The only justification for doing this is if you need the new pitcher to continue for at least another inning. But why not just pinch hit? I wonder if it's managers who move from the AL to the NL who seem to over-use this.

I can't claim that I know that Little makes mistakes in double-switching, but it just seems like the sort of tactic that would only make sense occasionally. If you're starting your best hitters, why remove one for an inferior one? Let the inferior ones pinch-hit for even-more-inferior pitchers. Maybe, if you switch in a regular who didn't start the game for whatever reason...

Any thoughts?

It's never occured to me that defensive replacements were a bad thing.

for example, that Logan White was decisive in the Guzman trade, AND that White is either petty enough to let pride trump evaluation of talent or dumb enough to let bias cloud his judgment

Well, I see Guzman, Aybar, Navarro, Jackson all wearing different uniforms.

I still see Greg Miller,Xavier Paul, James Loney, Delwyn Young in Dodger blue.

I dont know. Just seems like White trusts the players he drafted, moreso than the players he didnt. I think it has more to do with trust, than being petty. However, I think its the wrong conclusion to come to also.

The only real highly thought of White pick that he's allowed to be dealt away is Tiffany.

I dont think White thought anything of Ruggiano/Pedroza. Of course they arent "high ceiling" guys according to scouts.

419

I love how you conveniently left out Chuck Tiffany to prove your point.

418 Thinking about it even more, I didn't fully answer the question. You also have to consider the difference between the replacement and the other player if they were to come up to bat again. I think if we were to robotically figure this out, I'd use this formula to figure out if you should substitute.

If

Difference in fielding runs for one inning>difference in hitting runs * probablity you will bat again

Then do the switch.

Miller, Paul, and Young have pretty minimal trade value at this point. Loney you may have a point about, but then again he has a free agent ahead of him right now and is the only viable option at 1B for the foreseeable future. Navarro, Guzman, and Aybar were all blocked by young guys already in the majors while Jackson was given up on because of poor performance.

417 I think the double switch is often a defensive replacement in disguise. The main benefit, as you mentioned, is you can leave your pitcher in longer, and the position replacement is often a better glove in close/late games. Of course, you're assuming the manager is always starting his best hitters, which of course, is not always the case.

420- He didn't.

420 -- He didn't leave Tiffany out--it's right there in his fourth paragraph.

I honestly dont think you can really make anything of it. If TB wanted dewlyn young, i probably think they could have gotten delwyn young. I doubt he is held in any high regard by the dodgers. Greg Miller is only 21 and i still think the dodgers believe he has a bright future. Xavier Paul doesn't have any trade value. Concerning Loney: yes i feel the dodgers like loney and his season this year shows alittle bit that they know what they are doing. you cant discount the season he was having this year or even downplay it considering he was significantly better then guzman...significantly.

okay i probably have to go now, im on my 3rd whisky sour already.

419. That's specious reasoning, going backwards from outcomes to theory, and it still assumes stuff that's not obvious (like that White makes these decisions, or that his advice is the determining factor). But I at least like that you inserted "seems like" this time. At least that signposts that you are offering an interpretation, not a TRUTH.

I won't defend most of Alou's other typical moves, but Barry Bonds being "defensively replaced" (as opposed to defensive, which is what he usually is in conversation) makes total sense, given his age, knees, etc. Maybe not as much by Cody Ransom, but by a Jason Ellison or somebody it makes sense.

And, to finish my thoughts, the more important the situation, the less likely it is you use the defensive replacement, since in important situations, the more likely it is you will hit again.

The only time you should bring in a defensive replacement in a close situation is if the replacement isn't that much worse of a hitter than the guy being replaced. In this case, the replacement probably should have been starting anyway.

425

he left out tiffany when trying to prove his theory. the mention of tiffany doesn't do anything since he niether refuted it or tried to reason it. Tiffany was a logan white pick and he was dealt. blake johnson, pedroza and ruggiano were white picks and they were dealt. there isnt much of a conspiracy theory here.

"Here's my question: Do defensive replacements in the late innings ever work?"

Well, they won the Dodgers a World Series once...
http://www.nlbpa.com/amoros_sandy.jpg

Just thinking but if Ned traded Izturis for Lugo, would that have been a good trade.

395 I was just trying to make a pretty concrete definition of what the results of the first sentence in 383 look like.

I think we got too little in return for Guzman, but I dont go for the conspiracy against Guzman spiel at all. It is too shortsighted and against the teams interest to have a guy dumped in that manner for those reasons.

I am going to blame Ned. I am going to blame Ned

~rampant speculation begins~ for being given the go ahead by White to trade Guzman in a certain rent-a-player instance ~read Soriano~ where we might have had a chance to re-sign the player and who somewhat could have fit in longer term plans better. Soriano got pulled because we wouldnt add x y or z to whatever package they wanted and they pulled him last minute. Ned in a blinding rush traded Guzman for the next best thing. Unfortunately that guy has 0% chance of fitting into next years team, doesnt have much power, and doesnt really play outfield.~end rampant speculation~

I am going to blame Ned because it is his job. It is not Logan White's job even if he is some Rasputin in Ned's ear whispering, "Trade that Guzman guy, I don't want him to have more of an impact for the Dodgers over his career than guys I drafted! Muhahahahahaha!"...which I don't believe.

Anyways, I would think Delwyn Young is a generous offer for 2 months of Lugo.

Just for thought, if Ned traded Izturis for Lugo, would that have been a good trade?

432 But then Guzman for Maddux looks even worse.

I'm just saying! :)

423. Sometimes maybe. But with Little, it just seems like "pitching change" to him means "double switch," unless the pitcher happened to make the last out in the previous inning (in which case the change was likely due to a surprise meltdown rather early in the game (otherwise, it was a mistake to have let the pitcher bat).

Implicitly, he's assuming that the delay in getting to the (new) pitcher's spot is worth more than the difference between the new hitter and the guy he replaced. When that's a swap between relatively equivalent hitters, fine, but not when it means taking out one of your better hitters.

I skipped the later portions of last night's game comments (no reason other than I was away from the computer and then didn't feel like reading more about the loss), but has there been any word about Drew and his condition (if anything)?

So you guys dont think Miller, Paul, Loney, or Young could have been substituted into the Baez-Betemit-Hendrickson-Lugo deals?

RE 417

Well, in last night's game there was two outs in the inning so it's reasonable to assume that Grady wanted Saito to finish the inning and then pitch the 10th if necessary. Drew and Loney were already out of the game and Lofton had been brought in so the bench was rather thin and I can understand the rationale for a double switch, but I'm not sure about the wisdom of shuffling the entire infield around in order to make it happen.

And I would definitely agree with you that in most cases (esp. when most of the benchplayers are still available) the double switch is superfluous at best and sometimes counterproductive, as the so-called defensive replacements botch plays they would typically make when brought in after sitting on the bench for 8 innings.

437
The "D" in JD Drew stands for "day to day"

Loney may have been desirable to the Devil Rays, and it seems pretty clear the Dodgers didn't want to part with him; as for Miller and Paul, no, I don't think they could have been inserted. I doubt Tampa was interested. And Young, they already have a similiarly named position player - there's only so many they can keep track of. ;-)

It's funny, though, when you look at Tampa, what they really lack is pitching. I don't know what Guzman offers their minor league system, which is already pretty loaded with offense. But if you look at their major league team, it's pretty thin on pitching, and no, Edwin Jackson and Chuck Tiffany weren't the answer. But then again, I don't know what Izturis brings to the Cubs, either, and they seemed happy to get him. Go figure.

Game thread is open.

432 Viewed correctly, the deals were Guzman for Maddux(This year and one more) and Izturis for Izturis(Lugo temporary version)/Draftpicks. Given that Joel would have occupied a spot on the 40-man roster whereas the picks won't for three years, it all makes more sense. (The trades that is; the moustache still makes no sense at all.) Yes, I think it would have been a good trade.

438 No. Friedman could have got those guys from just about any team, save Loney. He wanted Jackson, Guzman, Navrro, etc.

And we don't know who the other possible PTBNLs were, they could have been Paul and Young, and Friedman just wanted Ruggiano.

436 Right. Just to be clear, I wasn't defending Grady, and using the double switch to remove your best hitters is never a good idea, unless there's some other factor (a nagging injury, say). I was just brining up one of the perceived benefits of the strategy.

Flanders had already decided to trade Guzman, for whatever reason, and did not care at all what he got back.

Re 431

Thanks for that one. Besides Robinson, Koufax, and Drysdale my Dodger knowledge doesn't go back much before the 1970's so I hadn't heard the Amoros story. I'll put that in the evidence column "for" defensive replacements.

438 Miller - still coming off injury issues, doubtful.
Paul - still in high A in both his 3rd and 4th years in the system
Young - Has positional issues, good hitter but not a lot of power, already on 40 man roster, only 2 option years left (including this year).
Loney - Beginning of year had those nagging power issues, once season began and he started to hit, I think he was given the nod as the first in line at 1B.

Retrospect - Baez/Carter deal - regardless of what we think of them, they were/are MLB pitchers and the Rays wanted starters, Jackson was in his last option year (this year) and Tiffany had some questions about his conditioning. Doubtful that one the Rays would have taken Miller who had not pitched a lot of innings in 2 years.

Betemit - despite how its being played, the Braves always wanted a reliever as part of that mix, that's why they asked the Padres for Linebrink, I think the fact Baez was a free agent probably meant that the Braves were renting him and they wanted another player, Aybar wasn't going to play with Betemit so he was dealt too.

Hendrickson/Hall deal - Apparently the Rays wanted Navarro for a while, the Dodgers were desperate for a 5th starter, Seo and Hall were sent because the Dodgers would probably lose Seo if they tried to designate him in order to send him down and the D-Rays were going to play Navarro anyway.

Lugo - Again, I'm not sure (frankly I'm not sure about any of thiis analysis) why they included Pedroza in the deal. One, the Rays have lots of outfielders on their MLB club and much better prospects ahead of him but again we don't know if there were other teams offering MLB players or what kind of prospects was being floated around.

Of those 4 players, I think the Dodgers still have hopes on Miller and Loney, Paul, if he his still in the system maybe makes it to AA, though his lack of promotion at this time makes you wonder and Young, we will just have to wait and see.

440 To be fair, until today, Drew was on track for that magical 140 odd games played.

446 Was that a hyperbola? (Regards to Blu2.)

438 Braves wanted/needed a middle infielder in return so i don't think they would have accepted Miller Paul Loney or Young in that deal.

Hendrickson Hall/Seo Navarro
Swapping out Navarro for Young would have made this deal better for us but again the TB outfielder glut makes Young pretty unvaluable to them. This is a deal that should not have been made at all in my opinion.

i already oversaid my peace on the Lugo deal. Young yes, any of the others including Guzman, not worth it.

Just because Guzman could have been substituted doesnt mean Ned offered. And just because Ned didn't offer doesn't mean he valued 'successful substitue' more than Guzman.

That probably doesn't make sense, but it sounds funny enough to laugh at so I'll leave I won't delete it.

450 -- The rule is that one may not "use hyperbole when something less will suffice." On every trade Flanders made or will make with Tampa Bay, there is nothing less than hyperbole that will suffice to describe it. Q.E.D.

My interpretation of the rules is that we may personally attack Flanders so long as he never becomes a commenter on the site.

453 So it's okay for me to say he wears a cat on his head? (Flanders I mean, not Timmerman.)

If one were to rank all of the statements made regarding the Dodgers for the past, say, six months, checking in at 12 would be the Dodgers' assertion that Mark Hendrickson is the Eighth Best Lefthander In The American League. At base, there is no substantive difference between that assertion, and at least 10,000 various assertions made by various people on this website. The only difference is that the Dodgers' lie is bigger.