Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
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4) arguing for the sake of arguing
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7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
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The noive, I tells ya. The utter noive.
Not Takashi Saito, not Jonathan Broxton, not even Joe Beimel or Brett Tomko, but Giovanni Carrara got the save for the Dodgers last night. He came into the game in the eighth inning with a three-run lead, retired the side on 16 pitches, and faced the ninth inning with the same three-run lead.
The Lance Carter debacle of April 30 in San Diego taught us the perils of assuming a big ninth-inning lead is an automatic save, so it was not without some risk that Carrara returned to the mound.
Now, I can't explain the living organism that is Carrara, thrice coming to Los Angeles with no credentials and pitching well at the outset of each term of service (21 1/3 innings, 22 baserunners, 21 strikeouts, 2.95 ERA this season), except to say that relievers simply have ups and downs, and Carrara takes that to an extreme.
Right now, he's in the ups. So rather than be a slave to the single closer mentality, or even the single backup closer mentality, Dodger manager Grady Little let Carrara stay in. And why not? There would be time enough to do something if Carrara got in trouble.
Carrara got the first two men out in the ninth before giving up a home run and a bunt single, bringing the tying run to the plate. On the verge of victory, the Dodgers edged closer to defeat.
With the tying run came to the plate, I would have activated my backup plan and brought in another reliever. Instead, Carrara got pinch-hitter Wes Helms to ground out, and instead of a devastating loss, the Dodgers won their Los Angeles-record 16th game in 17 attempts.
I believe you use your best relievers first if they are able to pitch. So Broxton, who didn't pitch Sunday, would have been my first choice to commence the eighth inning. But once Carrara was in the game, I didn't see the need to take him out until he got in trouble.
I'm not trying to take anything away from the Dodgers or Little to talk about how easily Monday's nice victory could have become a heartbreaker. Fortunately for the Dodgers, that's not a storyline they have to deal with this morning.
Little simply felt that Carrara could do the job, part of a season-long pattern in which, by and large, Little has displayed the valuable willingness to give players greater responsibility (as well as take it away). That flexibility has helped the Dodgers in 2006. Saito himself came out of the minors to become the team's No. 1 closer after Eric Gagne went out for the year. But Saito can't do it every day - and moreover, he shouldn't have to.
The only question about Carrara on Monday was whether he could get the outs in front of him, not whether he should be pitching in an inning that happens to be the ninth.
* * *
All the papers had news of the latest season-ending surgery for Dodger outfielder Jayson Werth, but Al Balderas of the Register had the most detail.
The mystery surrounding Jayson Werth's injured left wrist has been solved.
Werth underwent surgery Wednesday at the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota, where Dr. Robert A. Berger repaired a split tear in the ultra-triquetral ligament.
The procedure, coupled with the removal of scar tissue, will keep Werth in a cast that extends above his elbow for about six weeks. He will begin physical therapy at that point and should be ready for spring training.
"The doctor told him that he will be 100 percent after the surgery," Dodgers trainer Stan Johnston said. ...
"According to Werth, this physician is one of the few wrist specialists who has seen this type of thing and has recognized it," said Johnston, who has not yet spoken directly with Dr. Berger. "It's not something that is out there and everybody knows about."
* * *
Baseball Prospectus spotlights the Dodgers' 1-0 victory over the Giants on Sunday, with the most interesting tidbit for me being that six Dodgers went into the game slugging .570 or better during the recent hot streak.
Am I the only one who for the past few days has been seeing question marks where apostrophes should be on BP articles? It's the kind of thing that happens when people are sending stories from different computers and they're not transfering right. Update: Apparently, I was the only one. Problem solved.
Update 2: Dodger Thoughts commenter John Stodder delivers his own recap of Sunday's game, "A Perfect Sunday Evening at Dodger Stadium," at From the Desert to the Sea .... I love how burdened he is by the storytelling responsibility.
(O, muse, give me the wit and skill to write this post that people indifferent to baseball might enjoy it!) ...
It wasn't just that Maddux was perfect. It was the efficient way he achieved perfection. Maddux no longer possesses a real fastball. The Dodgers have several pitchers who can throw the ball 95-97 miles an hour. Maddux fastest pitch is about 85 mph. What Maddux can do is aim the ball exactly where he wants to aim it, and vary the speed of the ball enough so that the hitter can never feel confident that if he just swings in a certain location, he'll hit the ball hard. And, he threw strikes, almost exclusively, so the batters knew that if they didn't swing, they'd be struck out.
As it happened, Maddux only struck out four, but he didn't have to do more than that to completely dominate the Giant hitters. They would swing at his first or second pitch, and hit it weakly, right at somebody. He needed a few good defensive plays to help keep runners off the bases, including another one of his own. Bonds almost hit a home run off him in the seventh, but it didn't go quite far enough, and it was caught for an out.
It is hard to convey to a non-fan how amazing the following statistic is: In his eight innings, Maddux threw 68 pitches, and 50 of them were strikes. (In the same number of innings, Schmidt threw 114 pitches.) Most starting pitchers are taken out after they've thrown 100 pitchers, and they usually hit this threshold by the sixth or seventh inning. The high ratio of strikes to balls is amazing. If you divide these numbers by the eight innings he pitched, an "average" inning by Maddux last night consisted of only 8.5 pitches (to get three hitters out), of which 6.25 of them were in the strike zone. That is a level of finesse you just never see. In his 20-year major league career, I doubt Maddux has ever pitched with such precision. Nor have many other pitchers, ever.
(Tip from SoCal Sports Observed at L.A. Observed)
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B08230MON2004.htm
Also notice how the Giants lost the Maddux game in the inning where Felipe Alou chose to use Vinnie Chulk in a tie game rather than his 'closer' Benitez, who might be his best reliever.
On 8/20/04, Gagne allowed the go-ahead run in the top of the ninth against Atlanta, but Carrara was the winning pitcher in extra innings.
Gagne did not pitch again until 8/26/04.
I've got to give credit to Grady and Ned. They completely overhauled the bullpen since the start of the season, with Ned bringing in new players, and Grady giving everyone lots of room to find their roles.
I used to shudder every time the bullpen phone rang. Now, I only do when it's Tomko who gets the call. And even then, not so much.
Jon, those few sentences are and will be the most concise explanation of what has made Grady the perfect manager for the 2006 Dodgers.
While not one for quick hooks, he also does not let the milk get bad sitting out on the kitchen counter.
While we may argue about the eternal debate about how to build a team, certainly for most of this year, there has not been many debates about how to run it on the field.
Ugg. Billingsley goes today. Why has the Homecoming King fallen out of favor?
Gio has been a middle reliever throughout his career, so I guess I'm being a little harsh on him.
Insulting myself, not you.
Woo hoo, I understood it. I'm geekier than Jon! I'm geekier than Jon! USA! USA! USA! USA!
It seems if Little doesn't know a player, at first he'll use them in low-leverage situations. If the player succeeds, he'll get tougher assignments. If he doesn't, then Little moves on. However, if a player has an established reputation, then Little will use him in a role to which he's become accustomed - which explains why Baez's disasters came in save situations.
As far as Gio himself goes, I love the chubby Venezuelan. For some undecipherable reason, every time I see him I get a mental image of a butler in a top hat named Jeeves asking silly questions in snooty, accented English. Gio seems to genuinely love the game, gets excited to contribute to the team in any way possible, and unlike a lot of the guys on this team (say Kent and Drew) seems like he'd be a fun guy to knock down a few brews with. But let's face it, he makes all of us nervous because it's just a mystery of physics how he gets the job done. He is the ultimate "smoke and mirrors" pitcher, and I think Jon said it best with "just enjoy the good times while you can". Gio has absolutely no heat, and control that seems to vary widely from outing to outing. He also has no reputation, so unlike Maddux who batters fear despite his lack of a big time fastball, opposing players must light up with excitement every time Gio steps on the mound in anticipation of bumping up their BA and slugging percentage. I can't remember which announcer described his breaking ball as a "a soap bubble" but that's a pretty accurate description, and we all just sit in wonder that major league hitters flail away and actually miss that bubble. But less talented people than Gio have hit it big with even less talent, like the Simpsons sisters for example (sorry, couldn't think of a baseball analogy), so I say "all hail to Gio the Venezuelan butler".
Have you ever tried to hit a soap bubble with a baseball bat? It's not that easy. :)
That's pretty good but it's not exactly dominant. Look at what Sele did for the 51's this year.
http://tinyurl.com/qqhak
I think Billingsley should get the starts up to the point where either his struggles are costing us games or overtaxing his young arm becomes an issue. If he's well established as a major league starter for next year, that's a huge bonus for us.
In other words, I say ride Billingsley as long as you can, within reason (not like a Dusty Baker ride). Having Sele take an occasional start or skipping that spot in the rotation if the schedule allows are both nice fall-back positions.
For me, "the jury is out" as to whether this is actually happening or whether instead these last few games have simply been exceptions, but I am encouraged by what I have seen. I suspect part of it is the "luck" of not having Gange - since I doubt Little would have the rocks necessary to put Gange in for the 7th if that was what the game demanded. With that, however, I remain encouraged and hopeful.
Little, Epstein, and Bill James all thought the problem with the closer by committee concept in 2003 was that the relievers weren't very good to begin with.
Shortly after graduating from college in 1989, I embarked upon a mini-ballpark tour with my family. The first stop was in Yankee Stadium for a July 4 day game, the only game I've ever seen there. We sat high behind home plate, and did not stay for the Beach Boys concert afterward.
We then went up to Toronto, and sat low down along the right-field line, where I took the picture you see above. I have another shot at home that has part of the scoreboard, but I think I confirm the accuracy of your guess. I'm just amazed by the confidence about whether the batter/runner had a mustache.
Our trip then brought us to Fenway Park to see the Sox (against the Yankees, I believe) and finally to Wrigley to see the Dodgers play the Cubs. It was my second trip to Fenway and first and only trip to Wrigley.
Are there any other Dodger Thoughts readers that DON'T have a webblog? I feel like I'm in the minority and hopelessly behind the times, kind of like my parents when I was 10 and they always made me program the VCR.
:)
Dodgers: 12-13 April, 18-10 May, 11-15 June, 9-17 July, 13-1 August to date!!
Angels: 12-13 April, 11-17 May, 12-14 June,
19-7 July, 7-7 August to date.
Same records in April, Dodgers Hot in May but cooled off in June and July and you know about August!!
Angels cold in May, so-so in June and sizzling in July but cooling off in August.
Dodgers winning the battle of LA as of August 15, 63 to 61 victories, we're in Blue in first by 2 1/2, Angels Tie for 2nd and sliding down in GB to the sizzling A's. 6 weeks, 43 games left.
But there's just one.
Aisle 55 is the ideal place to be an angry, disgruntled loner.
I have a project in the works that will not be Dodger related and, if it goes to plan, will involve blogging.
And I can, with utmost confidence, say that it will be of minimal (maybe zero) interest to the DT faithful. But when/if it launches, I'll let you all decide, of course.
Since that date, the Dodgers, Padres and Rockies have identical 31-32 records, the Giants have gone 27-36 and the D-Backs have gone from 11 games over .500, to a .500 team at 26-37.
There are some constants, everyone except the Rockies had horrible interleague records in June. Since that date, the D-Backs, Giants, Padres and Dodgers have shared first place and the Giants, D-Backs and Dodgers have been in last place.
And may I say, I am grateful for your dedication to Dodger Thoughts for so many reasons: the opportunity to read your work, the challenging discourse in the comments, the introduction to great writers and great baseball minds in the blogosphere, but most of all, for the class and grace you've shown here from day one.
http://www.gocomics.com/nonsequitur/
Plus, it's got lots of swears. Lots.
Did you take all your Bench Coach posts down? I can't access them anymore.
http://www.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stories/081206aaa.html
You know, at one point, I went back to see if I could salvage the archives. But I found that Blogger had given the URL to a guy writing about Penn State football.
The reason it's not obvious that the season record reflects the true quality of the team going forward is of course that today's team is very different from the one that compiled much of that record. OTOH, in terms of balancing of luck, and the overall quality of opponents, the "current team" on its current run is also not the best guide to the future.
To my mind, the biggest improvements in the team since early in the season were dumping Odalis Perez in favor of Houdini Billingsley (so far, so good, if also so scary), and dumping Carter/Hamulack/Baez/even Kuo in favor of the current crew. The lineup has had its ups and downs, but the main gain has been Ethier over the Repko/Cruz/Ledee group.
Furcal started slow and now is hot. Nomar started hot, and has slowed down. The rest of the position players have been fairly steady, albeit at different levels.
So the team's streakiness seems to me to be largely due to changes in opponents and changes in luck. And unless one or the other (or both) stay in the team's favor for the last 6 weeks, the Dodgers ought to come back down to Earth during that time. Roller coasters bring you up and down, and are alternately thrilling and nausea-inducing, but you start and finish on the same level.
I do think that this team has been an work in progress, stat of interest, name the Dodger with the second most starts in the field, do the initials JtD mean anything.
Other, perhaps less biased observers like Rob Neyer and Joe Sheehan, have pointed that out as well.
I don't know the answer to your question, but I'd also be curious if "runs scored against Lowe" includes inherited Lowe baserunners that subsequent relievers allowed to score on 0-0 pitches, with the runs being charged to Lowe...
Where did you get all the dodger math numbers, then? Was it just espn, but with the knowledge that some of it might be wrong?
As for Billingsley, I wish he would just trust his stuff a bit more. Seems he has the last few starts more but when watching him, you just want him to relax and use that hook and that fastball. Hopefully, with time, he will. He's obviously got the physical tools to succeed.
I'm more impressed with the hair.
It's sad because ESPN has far more data than anywhere else, and I do occassionally use it, but when I was running my linear weights script off ESPN, it would sometimes come up with wrong numbers.
I don't think they [LA] can win the whole thing. I think there are better teams. But they can win the NL West and once you get into the playoffs you always have a chance. But if they face the White Sox, for example, they can't win. They would have a better chance against a team like the Yankees or Boston than they would against the White Sox or Detroit.
Why does LA have no shot against the White Sox (or the Tigers even), but would fare better against NY? I'm assuming the answer is "pitching", but how does Chicago fit in there?
I say, bring on the White Sox, bring on the Tigers!
I'd be a bit more concerned about having to face the Yankees lineup though.
I would just be happy to see the Dodgers in the World Series.
"Matchups" in World Series are over stated in my opinion.
"I don't think they [LA] can win the whole thing because they are too streaky. They lost a bunch of games in a row and they got lucky now and have won a bunch of games in a row, but when they lose games again it will be many in a row just like in July and that doesn't fly in the playoffs. If the Giants had more pitching, they would have the best chance of anybody because they have Bonds, who can beat a team like the Tigers or White Sox all by himself with the bat. The Dodgers don't have Bonds, so that's why they can't beat those teams. If they face the White Sox, for example, they can't win because they don't have Bonds.
"Morgan has also gone on record as stating that RBIs are the best statistic for hitters and win-loss records for pitchers, although the utility of these statistics is disputed by some sabermetricians. These statements, among others, have resulted in complaints about Morgan and his broadcasting, including a website devoted to criticism of Morgan."
Still, your points are well-noted, appreciated, appropriate, and amusing.
Bill James occasionally would break out a feature called "Manager in a Box," which would offer a thumbnail sketch of a skipper's tendencies.
One category, IIRC, was how he used his bench. Veteran role players? Rookies, used only when the regulars take a day off? A bunch of guys, with ill-defined jobs, sitting around getting grumpy?
The Dodgers bench, as of today: Repko, Lugo, Martinez, Saenz, Loney and Hall.
Only Martinez and Hall are spot starters in the typical (i.e., rare) sense.
The other four all have Little's confidence to start, and so they have. Lugo is turning into a Tony Phillips play-him-anywhere type (ironically, anywhere meaning other than his preferred position of shortstop). Saenz seems to have settled into a role of big gun off the bench, although he's seen games at first and third. Repko shares time in the outfield, acting as Lofton's defensive caddy. And Loney is a pinch hitter, defensive sub and sometimes starter at first.
No point here - just some observations.
Furcal, SS
Lofton, CF
Garciaparra, 1B
Drew, RF
Kent, 2B
Ethier, LF
Betemit, 3B
Martin, C
Billingsley, P
It will be Tampa Bay West.
I think it is more that if you are going to play Kenny, 2nd remains the best option for him to bat.
Additionally, a hitter like Lofton - who if he gets on base is more likely to do so with a banjo base hit - is more valuable batting 8th (a head of the free out) than.
Everything about Lofton's offensive value is screaming for him to be the #8 hitter. Putting speed at the top of the line up before the power is about as stupid as it gets where lineup construction is concerned - luckily, again, lineup construction does not matter much.
Splitting hairs?
Tampa Bay West? Maybe not a bad thing so long as the opponent is the National League, given that the TBD are 11-7 in interleague play, while their overall record is an abysmal 47-72 [coming down the stretch looking for that 100 loss season].
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