Besides that, given that it's the end of the season, short rest doesn't bother me - if things go badly, they have a few months to rest.

I like Maddux and Lowe going on three days' rest.

The tougher question will be a one game playoff and the playoff rotation, depending on how the rest of this week pans out.

I much prefer a rested Bills to Penny on three days' rest for a one game playoff.

And in a five game series, I would argue that our best rotation would be Lowe, Maddux, and Kuo, with no Bills or Penny at all.

In the second half, Penny is actually striking more people out, his home run/outfield fly rate has regressed to the mean, and he's walking people along the lines of his career rate. Alsom his BABIP has shot up greatly, he's allowed almost as much hits in 79 innings post all star break than he did in 103 innings before hand.

What's interesting is that Penny's ground ball to fly ball ratio is actually much better in the second half. Penny was living a slightly charmed life in the beginning of the season, and while he's been slightly worse in the second half, it shouldn't have been nearly this bad.

The question is, is the expectation for what Penny will do Thursday higher than what Billingsley will do? The answer may be yes, if the peripherals indicate that Billingsley has been living a bit of a charmed life.

What I do know is that Lowe's delivery looks pretty unique to me, in that he releases the ball when his arm is pretty far forward compared to most pitchers. That would seem to account for his heavy sinker, and I wonder if its a also a style that puts less strain on his body. You certainly can't argue with his durability.

I'd be interested to hear from other commenters that might actually know what they're talking about.

Has anyone ever noticed how straight Penny's fastball is? Apologies if this has been pointed out before, but I couldn't help but compare Penny to Jake Peavy when they started the other night. Peavy's ball was dipping and swerving all over the place, for better or worse, and Penny's had no movement. Perhaps this is why Penny gives up so many foul balls.

Are people picking up on this? Penny throws very hard, but it's straight. I hadn't really focused on that until recently. Derek Lowe, to give another contrast, always has his sinker moving, and only gets hurt when he hangs one.

Penny, to my untrained eye, also seems to have very violent mechanics, and it seems to take a lot of effort for him to make pitches.

So what can you say? Maybe something is wrong with his mechanics, but I have never heard the announcers mention why his pitches lack movement.

Simply clutch to do that when you are fighting for a playoff spot

Youll understand when you watch the next two Dodgers pitchers perform in Colorado just how vital this win was and how good Maddux is.

Heres to a Dodgers/Padres NLCS.

As for the Penny/Billingsly conundrum, I say go with Penny. Both can be good or bad, but at least Penny doesn't have a chance to walk six guys.

I will be stuck in a training session that will last nearly all day.

That said, I still think Penny is the right pick to start since he appears to be Colorado's version of Harry Coveleski. (Gratuitious joke that only Bob will get...) Also, I think Billingsley has been quite lucky thus far in that so few of his baserunners have scored, and Coors is a poor place to pray for that luck to continue, humidor or no.

Anyway, it's an interesting statement about our pitching staff that the starter we trust the least is a toss-up between
1) The guy who started the All-Star Game
2) The guy who has lowest ERA in the league after the all-star break.

Another interesting scenario: what if the Dodgers have the Wild Card wrapped up on Friday but still have shot at winning the NL West (which does seem to be quite a long shot at this point). Do we still go with starters on short rest to try to win the west, or do we take the wild card and go into the playoffs well rested?

Johan Santana is fifth.

No one necessarily needs to know those events involve baseball, not schul.

I read in some newspaper that Penny has a stiff back. I really feel that both Bills and Penny, or both Penny and somebody else, should prepare for Thursday, and Penny comes out as soon as there's trouble. We have a few ( iffy ) starters to spare, which may be better than Penny throwing away leads and gifting runs to the opposition.

However so, though, tonight's game is what matters. Blink and all is lost.

And I didn't reserve seats at the synagogue for the service.

I don't think people really realize the extent to which the Mets are helpless against left-handers. It's so extreme that we ought to give serious consideration to starting Stults against them too.

The Mets' team OPS against lefties is .739, 26th out of the 30 teams, ahead of only Baltimore, St Louis, Seattle and the Cubs. (Their OPS against righties is 7th best out of 30.) Almost all of the Mets' players, even the switch hitters, fare much worse against lefties. And the problem has gotten worse as the season has gone on -- witness their recent domination by Pittsburgh's lefty pitching staff.

Kuo seemed unfazed by what we ordinary mortals know as pressure.

Though I'd prefer to run the table, we probably will lose one of the five remaining games. Might as well be at Penny's hands. He's a serviceable villain for our scorn.

My mother is Jewish but the only time I ever went to temple was on Rosh Hashanah in 1978, which happended to fall on the same day of the Yankees-BoSox Bucky Dent play-off game. I really wanted to watch the game so I told my mother that I should stay home from school that day to celebrate Rosh Hashanah and she agreed! I was forced to go to temple later that day, but it was worth it.

Bob, you have from now until Monday to convince your co-workers that you are Jewish.

... perhaps a note from "Epstein's mother" would do the trick

(no ... not Theo Epstein's mom)

At this point, I'm thinking the rotation against the Mets would look like this...game 1: Lowe, game 2: Kuo, game 3: Maddux, game 4: Lowe, game 5: Kuo. Send Penny and Bills to the bullpen and see if they can be effective from there.

But trial by fire in the playoffs? YOu think Grady would pitch him in the 7th with a 3-2 lead?

its at least better then tomko.

My Michigander brother said he would not go to Midland unless he were guaranteed a large sum of cash. I checked on a a map. Midland is not near anything. Unless you think Saginaw is something. And I'm no Lefty Frizelle.

This then brings up the question: Which Midland would you rather live in: the one in Michigan or the one in Texas?

I believe I mentioned on how long it took me to hitchhike from Saginaw in one of the stories. I think it was four days.

The Midland in Michigan is the one you want. I've never been there, know nothing about it, but having been to Midland, Texas, trust me -- the Michigan Midland is far preferable.

I might choose Midland TX over some cities, though. Fallujah and Sarajevo come to mind.

Tom Boswell: No.

"First reactions" to serious things like this are a sign of ingrained (journalistic) irresponsibility. Our culture is full of this tendency. Have an opinion first, then get the facts later __if ever. I bet talk radio is FULL of people right now who are loaded with flashy opinions, have never met Owens and are bereft of any shred of insight.

Anyone who has watched Keith's "Countdown" program on MSNBC can probably understand why some folks would be upset with him.

Maybe the sender just thought he smelled bad?

Meanwhile, I'm upset because my landlord had two tickets to Saturday's game here in SF and I can't go because it's both a friend's 40th bday and my mom and stepdad are in town so I have double plans. Sigh... but actually it's probably just as well because I think I'm an in-person jinx so I'm probably better off just watching it later on TV.

Yes, that too...

"Chad Billingsley is a 1.2 IP, six-run disaster waiting to happen, but apart from that this group is solid. Not that the Dodgers have too many alternatives to Billingsley, unless they want to do something creative like a tandem start involving Jonathan Broxton. A three-man rotation is probably out of the question, with an aging Greg Maddux and fragile Brad Penny in the group."

A very poorly researched piece, to say the least, considering he's apparently not even aware of the existence of the guy who's got a decent shot at being our #1 starter against the Mets.

The west side of the Rose Bowl.

And even though Lidge is down, the Astro's pen is much better than the Cards.

I think he should be very cautious with his elbow. Very cautious.

Jason Schmidt's last start is up in the air too because of his back problems.

Their purchase prices contain a couple of commas.

Los Angeles Magazine puts out the best neighborholds in L.A. article every year, I remember one year their chart showed for each neighborhood how many Starbucks are within a certain distance. There were some on the westside that had 3.

My brother's middle name does not start with an N.

The middle initials of my four brothers are: G, J, J, and V.

Which reminds me I should call him and let him exult over the Tigers' resurgence this year.

My biggest complaint about MI is the cuisine, such as the insistence on putting gross imitation cheese on just about everything.

Pie N' Burger is OK.

I like the Crocodile Cafe, although it is a bit pricey.

I pinch??? No pinch no pinch ....

agreed, i really don't like Bills as a bullpen guy, simply because of his lack of control, hope i'm wrong.

cool storie Jon.

So, there you go...

Ethier shouldn't have much to worry about for next year. I think what he showed through mid-August was enough to let management know what he can do. Many times they've talked about his being a rookie making it hard for this last month and a half.

my sisters tell me the food over there is not good at all, & shopping for clothes is a totall disaster, expensive/no good.

Second, Ned came from the Giants, who for better or worse, always retool. We need a starter, some more bullpen guys to toss in the mix, we will probably have battles for outfield and the corner infield spots. Some of these holes will have guys like Ethier, Kemp, Loney, Betemit involved, while others will be filled with free agents or trades.

I think the Angels in a unique place because aside from Jered Weaver and maybe Joe Saunders, you can't just pencil in any of their young players aside from Kendrick for next year, they learned nothing from Dallas or Casey Kotchman, you know you are in trouble when Jose Molina gets more than his share of catching starts, does Figgins have a position and should they be having Darin Erstad and Adam Kennedy days this weekend too.

i love there competetive fire, i know it dosn't mean much to alot of folks but it does to me.

I know I speak for almost nobody who reads Dodger Thoughts that I think they made a mistake getting rid of Troy Glaus, and had too much faith in their up and coming players.

Adam Kennedy is a fine player, and I think they ought to consider re-signing him, as long as he doesn't demand a no-trade contract. Kendrick can play first or third.

I know the Angels' prospects often get included with the Dodgers as a top farm system. They've had great luck with pitchers, but they've had mixed luck with position players. Their mistake has been to over-rely on those rookie position players making it.

The AL East will always have the Yanks and BoSox trying to outspend each other.

The AL Central is probably the best division in baseball, with the Twins, Indians, White Sox and Tigers all loaded with young talent for years to come.

The AL Central has Oakland and Billy Beane who continually keeps them in the hunt.

What does the NL have? The Mets, the fading Braves legacy, the upcoming Dodgers, D-Backs, Marlins and Brewers. Other than that the cupboard is bare.

The Cards, Pods, Stros and Giants are all old and figure to get worse. The Pirates, Nats, Cubs, Rockies and Reds are all perrenial also rans.

The differences in Leagues makes a huge difference if you are planning for the future.

B. Hawpe COL Career vs D. Lowe
3 HR, .563 AVG, 7 RBI (16 At Bats)

"The Cards, Pods, Stros and Giants are all old and figure to get worse." Maybe true with the Cards, and the Giants, though they do have some good young players mixed in, but the Padres and Astros both have some good young players and are both making a strong playoff run.

By that I hope you don't mean that the Angels need someone good to follow Vlad in the lineup to insure he gets better pitches to hit. The concept of lineup "protection" is one that Bill James spent years debunking over and over again. It's now well-settled that replacing the guy who hits after you predictably affects one of your stats and one only: intentional walks. If the Angels need a complement to Guerrero in the offence, what they really need is OBP.

So those deals have resulted in an improvement of 12 games so far, do I foresee another turnover like this year as we enter 2007, probably not but it would not surprise to find some guys not on the 40 man roster today, starting for the Dodgers next year.

Nats
Castro 2B
Lopez SS
Soriano LF
Zimmerman 3B
Vidro 1B
Harper C
Logan CF
Church RF
Astacio P

But the problem is that San Fran and San Diego look to sink like rocks at the same the Dodgers, D-Backs and Rocks have their best players coming into their prime. At the moment, I still favor the NL Central for the next couple of years. And as for the rest of the NL, I don't see a whole lot there, and I don't really see it coming either. You can disagree, but point me to another young and upcoming team, except for the Marlins who will just keep blowing stuff up. The Brewers maybe, but how long will their older more expensive players be there while the kids grow.

Plus every offseason most talent migrates to AL and not the other way around. That is just the trend. Could it change? Yes, but why would it? When the Yanks, Sox, Blue Jays and Angels keep spending stupid money on players that aren't real difference makers?

Not sure how strong the farm systems are for the once mighty AL East, for that matter - the Yanks trade away most of their talent, ditto the Red Sox, the Orioles haven't done much of anything smart, the Blue Jays have a knack for screwing things up, too and then you have the Devil Rays, whom we're all intimately familiar with, loads of young talent. But never seems to gel - maybe next year. So that'd ordinarily be my pick for a division on the downswing, but so much money spent there, I can't really imagine it completely.

I think we can "safely" say that the Dodger opening day line-up in 2007 will contain:

Kent, 2B
Furcal, SS
Martin, C
Ethier, LF

The rest is a little more up in the air. Is it Nomar or Loney at first, or a combination of the two if Nomar is willing to sign another one-year deal (doubtful). Do we give Betemit another chance to play 3B everyday, or does the team think he is nothing more than a utility player? Will LaRoche be ready?

As far as the OF, does Drew opt-out? If he doesn't, it will be Ethier and Drew at the corners, and either Kemp or some unknown player in CF.

The rotation will most likely be Billingsley, Kuo, Lowe and Penny, with the fifth starter either being Maddux, or a free agent--Zito? The bullpen will probably start out as Gagne, Saito, Broxton, Beimel, Tomko, and whoever else, with Saito moving into the closer spot if Gagne is done.

The main thing that Ned and Co. have to decide is if they are willing to bank on the improvement of young players like Ethier, Kemp, Martin, Betemit, Loney, Bills, Kuo and Broxton to carry this team into 90-100 win territory, or do they decide to trade some combination of Loney, Ethier and Kemp for a proven starter/power hitter?

i wouldn't do that if i were the Dodgers, speacialy with Loney & Ethier those guys have proven they can adjust.

I'll miss the first four innings or so of the Nats/Phils tonight.

Grumble.

I've said it before and I'll say it again though, it's a looooong offseason and there is only so much material JWtPK can come up with every day. Enjoy this last week (?) of games while you can!

Either that or hit a game-winning home run in the playoffs.

I picture J.D. Drew in southern (not South) Pasadena. Somewhere around the Huntington Ritz Carlton.

I love this place.

Ethier needs non of that, Ethier just needs to be in shape for 162 games.IMO.

This leaves Loney, Laroche, and Kemp as possible trade bait. Kemp is someone I'd rather hold onto because he seems to have the most upside of any of our young hitters. Laroche is also a potential superstar with his great bat and glove. Loney would be the logical trade candidate, especially since 1B is easy to replace, but I'm not sure how much we could get in return.

My plan would be to trade Ethier and a decent prospect (Abreu maybe) to the Marlins for Scott Olsen (I know I've said this a thousand times) assuming they're interested. Put Kent at 1B, Betemit at 2B, and Laroche at 3B to start the year. If Kent gets hurt, simply plug Loney in and hope for the best. Instead of spending big money on a starting pitcher, use that money to sign Soriano to get some true power in the line-up, leaving you with:

1. Furcal - SS
2. Martin - C
3. Drew - RF
4. Kent - 1B
5. Soriano - LF
6. Kemp - CF
7. Betemit - 2B
8. Laroche - 3B

SP - Lowe, Penny, Billingsley, Kuo, and Olsen

If Laroche adjusts well, he can switch places with Betemit. Of course, this all depends on him being recovered from his shoulder surgery by spring training.

Wow, there's some outside the box thinking.