Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
I posted some reflections on the Dodgers-Mets series at SI.com, though be forewarned, this piece focuses mostly on the Mets.
In the cat-and-mouse National League Division Series between the New York Mets and the Los Angeles Dodgers, the mouse was actually tied or in the lead after the fifth inning in two of three games.I should have more here on the Dodgers later today.Oh, but the claw marks on Squeaky by the end ...
The Mets completed their three-game NLDS sweep over the Dodgers on Saturday with a 9-5 victory in Los Angeles, a sweep most striking in that it was not that New York could do no wrong, but that New York could do wrong and still win going away. ...
"Proper name Y/N
If Y, insert {bold} tag
Next space blank Y/N
If Y, close {bold} tag"
We made the playoffs, though, and that's all that matters. You just need to make it, as has been proven before, superior teams can be beaten by weaker teams in the playoffs, we just didn't get so lucky.
I'd like to see a little more trust in the youth for next season.
Also, it seems to me the big difference between this year and last, wasn't the injuries, but that this year we had capable young players to step in and fill the void.
All of this is old news, but I just wanted to say my peace.
"Proper name Y/N
If Y, Lookup MLB.com database
If HIT,..."
;)
I find my mind already grinding away at things like the Kent,Nomar amd Loney situation so I'm sure I'll be checking D thoughts often.
Between the A's and Tigers, I'm pretty sure my heart will be with the Yankee-slayers. America goes a bit schizophrenic when it's Underdog v. Underdog.
I'm pulling for the Cardinals to humiliate the Padres tonight. I can handle the Dodger season ending, but only if the Padres also fall, and as ignominously as possible.
My problem with the Mets actually is their fans. I lived in NYC for four years in school and never got over it in 1989 on opening day when the first seven callers to a talk show said Davey Johnson should be fired for losing the opening day game. They weren't rational and I might not seem rational, but if rationality had anything to do with rooting, we'd all be in trouble!
But mostly, I'm just really sad. Go Dodgers.
If you had an emoticon for this mood it would be Greg Brock in a Brewers uniform.
As Comic Book Guy would say, "There is no emoticon for how I am feeling right now."
It involved a word beginning with the letter f and ended with "...the Dodgers."
anyway, there's so much to be thankful for. loney, chad, and russ all looked great and there's more coming. all we need to do is let nomar and gagne go, and pick up carlos lee and barry zito! lady (that'd be me) and gentlemen, your 2007 dodgers:
C martin
1b loney
2b kent
3b betemit (until andy's ready)
ss furcal
lf lee
cf drew
rf ethier
sp zito
sp penny
sp lowe
sp maddux
sp chad
let's make it work!
He's not fast, but he's fast enough. He's got a good glove out there. As a corner outfielder, he's not an asset with the bat.
Considering salary and age along with ability, I'd rather see Kuo in that rotation over everyone but Billingsley.
I wonder if Colletti regrets not acquiring a better starter, for all the money and major-league ready and almost-ready talent he gave away: Sanchez, Schmoll, Navarro, Guzman, Edwin Jackson, Tiffany, Aybar, Choi (sorry), Ledee; even the Perezes (Antonio of the sub 100 batting average and Odalis of the super-6 ERA) might have been leveraged for more in return at the times they were traded.
I wonder of there are any regrets about Little's ability to run a ptching staff within a game. I think Little, as wonderful a guy as he seems to be, has proven that he cannot adjust his mindset properly to maximize his team's probability of success within game. He sure seemed to underutilize or misuse the skillsets of Saenz, Lofton (batting 2nd against a lefty?), Penny, Broxton and Saito.
Sorry this post is so long. Great work, Jon on the site. Keep hope alive. Cheers.
4: Had that same feeling that my "puncher's chance" (gotta find a better metaphor; from decent amateur as a kid, have grown to hate boxing and almost everything it represents)
was gone in that fateful, amateur-hour inning.
(Organization, manager, coach, players all share responsibility).
12: as usual, agree with almost everything, except Pads/Cards. Would like to see Dave R.
get another chance.
Greg B. I saved myself that sadness; thought this team was fun and marginal; they couldn't beat a Mets team that started Maine, Glavine and Trachsel. Keep that in mind as next year's optimism predictablt builds around here.
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206 "5) Bills looks like a 5th starter for next year"
I'm not sure whether that's intended as a compliment or an insult to Billingsley, but I for one have significantly higher expectations for him next year than 5th starter.
208 Maybe it's the cynic in me, but I read Saito's comments all along as a ploy for more money rather than a genuine desire to return to Japan. Which is fine with me; he deserves the dough. We still will probably end up paying him significantly less than most front-line closers make.
One question I have (Bob?) is: Why was Saito so utterly dominant in MLB while his stats in Japan were fairly mediocre? I doubt the Central League is a higher caliber of baseball. Is it luck? Or maybe American unfamiliarity with his repertoire, in which case we should probably expect a significant dropoff next year? I don't know, but in any case he's a guy I hope to have around next year.
Also, the note in the Times about Beimel not being allowed to watch the game from the dugout makes me wonder whether the Dodgers will even offer him another NRI invitation in 2007, or just look around for another LOOGY who might end up having a lucky year.
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206 "5) Bills looks like a 5th starter for next year"
I'm not sure whether that's intended as a compliment or an insult to Billingsley, but I for one have significantly higher expectations for him next year than 5th starter.
208 Maybe it's the cynic in me, but I read Saito's comments all along as a ploy for more money rather than a genuine desire to return to Japan. Which is fine with me; he deserves the dough. We still will probably end up paying him significantly less than most front-line closers make.
One question I have (Bob?) is: Why was Saito so utterly dominant in MLB while his stats in Japan were fairly mediocre? I doubt the Central League is a higher caliber of baseball. Is it luck? Or maybe American unfamiliarity with his repertoire, in which case we should probably expect a significant dropoff next year? I don't know, but in any case he's a guy I hope to have around next year.
Also, the note in the Times about Beimel not being allowed to watch the game from the dugout makes me wonder whether the Dodgers will even offer him another NRI invitation in 2007, or just look around for another LOOGY who might end up having a lucky year.
Sorry if I'm an echo; was composing when you posted.
Losing still hurts. But this is going to be an offseason of anticipation and excitement, which is a nice change.
I think the post-2004 off-season met those criteria...
True, but we had a GM whose entire philosophy was based on finding players who were "uninspiring" to the rest of the world, but productive nonetheless. Regardless of one's opinion of Ned, it would be hard to characterize his transactions thus far in a manner other than "Buy high, sell low." That doesn't really bode well for the future, and doesn't make me very excited about the offseason.
Now go get me a Zito, you silly mustachioed GM.
Spending the Green for the Blue
According to the DT sidebar and mlbcontracts.blogspot.com, Colleti paid around $19 million for the srevice of Hendrickson, Hall, Lugo, Alomar, Baez, Mueller, Tomko and Ramon Martinez this year; all of whom were readily predicted at the times of their acqusitions to be superfluous or likley non-contributors.
That's Bobby Abreu and Manny Ramirez money right there. In fact that's more than the Yankees pay A-Rod each year (They pay him only $16 million, as the Rangers are on the hook for a prorated $9 million a year, according to ESPN.com)
To be fair, Depo (and during the GM interreignum Kim Ng) stuck the Ds with $22 million total for Gagne, Odalis Perez and Jose Cruz this year; though I don't think anyone predicted what busts those would all be. The Colletti busts were bemonaed loudly at the times of the acquisitions, as I recall.
We need a corner outfielder with pop. We need a third baseman. We need a legitimate #2 (I'm happy with four #2's, even without a true ace). If Ned can acquire those things, the Dodgers are in very good shape next season.
In fact, I've noticed a definite anti-mustache bias on this site (see Kent, J.), but I've held my peace about it.
No more! Knock it off with the anti-mustache remarks! Many good men (and maybe a few women) have mustaches!
;)
Much rather Hunter than Juan Pierre.
Whatever you do Ned, just stay away from JP.
I'm guessing Saito was effective in the US because of unfamiliarity and for being used for shorter periods of time.
And also not playing in a bandbox like Yokohama Municipal Stadium.
And having better defenders behind him.
I can't help but notice that for the first time in my lifetime, the Dodgers have exactly zero top Latin American prospects in their farm system.
Pacific Coast League (AAA)
4. Chad Billingsley, RHP
5. Andy LaRoche, 3B
6. Matt Kemp, OF
12. James Loney, 1B
20. Joel Guzmán, IF/OF*
Southern League (AA)
3. Scott Elbert, LHP
4. Matt Kemp, OF
5. Andy LaRoche, 3B
Florida State League (High A)
3. Scott Elbert, LHP
9. Blake DeWitt, 2B/3B
Sally League (Low A)
None
Pioneer League (Rookie)
1. Bryan Morris, RHP
2. Josh Bell, 3B
15. Steven Johnson, RHP
Gulf Coast League (Rookie)
1. Clayton Kershaw, LHP
9. Jhonny Núñez, RHP*
11. Preston Mattingly, SS
*no longer with organization
Penny and a pitching prospect, and pay most of Penny's salary...Maybe.
Keep all the young guys and sign Aramis, Zito, and either Edmonds/Byrnes for CF.
After the 2007 season, the Dodgers should know whether Matt Kemp can be counted on for CF, or whether they should go after Andruw Jones (who becomes a Free Agent).
But, I dont really think alot of changes need to be made. 1 big bat, and 1 big starter. Keep the youngsters. Thats what I'd do.
And the Midas touch
*shop him
Does this have to do mostly with his career not lasting long enough at its peak? Or?
Billingsley's awesome and so is Kuo. So that adds up to yet another nice problem to have. I could almost see staying the course with those starters and taking flyers on Free agent middlemen and going out and getting Soriano or someone like that.
That's not going to happen.
Don't get me wrong; as a fan, I revere Sandy Koufax. But as someone who interprets baseball history, I can't really put him on an all-time team.
Ned needs to tell the D-Rays they owe us.
If Oswalt is still on the block I wonder what it would take to get him. I'm a huge fan. Or maybe we could just wait until he becomes a free agent.
We don't hit any, either. And home runs are important.
Plus, Greg Maddux tells me that chicks dig the long ball.
oh right, of course. silly me.
well, carry on.
Brad Penny, Chad Billingsley, and maybe Broxton.
But anyway, my ideal offseason:
Matsuzaka
Lee
bullpen
sign Nomar to play 3rd
and start next season with:
Furcal
Nomar
Drew
Lee
Kent
Ethier
Loney
Martin
I'm sure Drew can play center. And keep Betemit in case Nomar gets hurt.
I just dont want to pay 14 mil per year for his age 31-36 seasons.
but we will get arod. :P
Some NY papers are suggesting that the Yankees are going to try to get rid of him. Who knows.
His teammates started to get irritated with him, I think that is the biggest issue.
The Yankees and their fans will have to face the reality that the rest of the world knows: That Alex Rodriguez is a better baseball player than Derek Jeter.
that doesnt matter. Arod is NY's scapegoat (along with torre), hes not going to be around next year.
89
Laroche tore BOTH his labrums this year and he is having surgery on one of them. I am skeptical if his health to start the 2007 season. Honestly, I am perfectly fine with Betemit playing 3b next year for us. I know some people cant stand him but i like the way he is developing and if given 500ABs next year I think he could definately hit 280/340/490 for us with 25homeruns.
Twins have a 12 mil or so option on hunter and a buyout of 2 mil or something. I dont think hunters going to be a FA this winter.
IIRC, when Bradley came he preferred CF. To help the team, Drew agreed to move to RF and spell Bradley occasionally. I gather he also agreed in part since RF would be less of a strain, and he wasn't 100% physically.
This year, pretty much same with Lofton. Seems like Lofton was agreeable to CF only. Which makes sense; KLo is not exactly your typical corner outfielder.
Could be playing center might spark Drew to the next level. He had a solid year but IMO is capable of more.
Yeah, my booking is dependent on Hunter being a FA. I don't really see Ned trading for him, but then again such a transaction wouldn't shock me
and what type of player is that?
{Heads for the hills}
1. 31 years old
2. Career high in HRs (31), with 98 RBI and .278 BA
3. Has stolen over 20 bases 3 times in career
4. "Looks like" a centerfielder
And if the lineup is constructed with good OBP guys, you can have a power hitter with a smaller OBP here and there.
Along those lines, I actually "did the math" the other day, regressing runs scored on BA, OBP, and SLG from the 2006 season. The coefficient for BA was not "significant." Interestingly enough, SLG had a larger standardized coefficient than did OBP...
Again, we're talking about Ned here, not yours truly...
wow, look at d4p. Loduca lover 2004 turned sabermetrician 2006.
"Dames are put on this earth to weaken us, drain our energy, laugh at us when they see us naked."
LOL. I have a woman...But to your point, my life is consumed by trying to learn various and sundry statistical techniques for my dissertation and beyond. Throwing a few variables into a linear regression is, fortunately, within my grasp...
That reminds me: your 16-17 beer binge last night made me suspect that you live alone...
Good times.
As a newcomer here this year I had no way to realize the time, effort, and talent you put into DT. Please keep on, as much as time will permit. I don't think you have anything to apologize for in the least.
I enjoy your writing very much. You're very talented, have excellent insights, and write with balance and fairness. Rare indeed.
Thanks!
The stars were aligned, culminating in a record-setting BAC for yours truly. It's rare, but it happens.
Thanks for the well-wishes, but I should clarify that the math (or more accurately, "statistics") is my least favorite part of the whole process. To the extent that I qualify as "math boy," it's strictly out of necessity.
Regarding "math boy to math man": do tell...
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