Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
You may find this hard to believe.
Derek Lowe ranked 16th in the major leagues in Value Over Replacement Pitcher, which qualifies him as an elite pitcher for 2006 - he'd have been the ace for about half of the teams in baseball.
Many of us have an idea in our head about what a No. 1 starter feels like, but I'm guessing that for the most part, that idea is too lofty. Do you think of Dan Haren as a No. 1? Clay Hensley? Jason Jennings? Aaron Cook? Not that VORP is the be all and end all (for one thing, it's cumulative, so aces who missed part of the season have a handicap), but by that measure, those pitchers were all among the 30 most valuable in baseball.
Starting pitching is a concern for the Dodgers, but don't get taken in by reputations alone. You don't have to average eight innings or have an ERA under 3.00 to be a top pitcher - that is not how it works in our era. Just about any pitcher who can average six effective innings for an entire season has something worth holding on to.
The problem for the Dodgers in 2006 wasn't having to relieve Lowe or Brad Penny or whomever after six innings - the problem was when these guys would get knocked out in the fourth or fifth (or, when a guy like Mark Hendrickson would last six innings but allow five runs in the process). Obviously, that's going to happen occasionally over 162 games, but that's what you need to minimize. The Dodgers got swept in the playoffs largely because they didn't get six innings from any starter.
On the current staff, Lowe is an established six-inning pitcher, except for that one slump a year that you just hope is only a few starts and not a dozen. Chad Billingsley and Hong-Chih Kuo were coming on as six-inning starters. Penny rarely goes beyond six innings, though he did have 14 quality starts in his first 22 before the injuries and whatever else wore him down. (Despite his second-half slump, Penny finished 47th in starting pitcher VORP this season, qualifying him, like it or not, as a No. 2 starter.) Greg Maddux is also someone who gives you his fair share of six-inning games.
Overall in 2006, the Dodgers never really did have five good starters on the beam at once. They don't need a superstar like Johan Santana in order to improve their starting pitching - but they do need to better than Hendrickson. They need more consistency. I'm more convinced than ever before that the difference between great, good, mediocre and lousy pitchers is their level of consistency. The worst major league pitcher could retire Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard and Joe Mauer in a given inning - some pitchers just display that ability more than others.
Lowe and Billingsley strike me as good bets to be satisfactory pitchers in 2006, and if Kuo is durable enough, him too. Penny, if his problems are solvable (and I have to feel they are - I'm struggling to believe his career is suddenly over) would be a fourth. Maddux could be the fifth, but if that's your five then you're placing a lot of oddsy bets. I think the Dodgers need more depth in the rotation, with our without Maddux - but again, there may be some hidden gems out there, more expensive than your Aaron Seles but a lot cheaper than your Barry Zitos, that could help out.
I don't know, people said over and over what a horrible signing Lowe was, but he seems to have been the most solid thing they had over the last couple of years. If there are better pitchers available for less money then order me up three or four of them.
The perfect position for Nomar would be 3B. He could play his usual 100-120 games there, and Betemit could pick up the rest of the starts, plus whatever else he could cobble up from Kent at second, which I am sure would be at least 10-20 starts. This way, Betemit gets to be the super utility player, which I have a feeling is the best role for him, and it gives LaRoche another year in the minors, which he probably needs.
Glancing over the FA starting pitchers, there's the upper tier (Schmidt, Zito) and a lot of lower tier back-end guys (Miguel Batista, Tomo Ohka), but very few middle guys in Penny's class (maybe Mike Mussina, Adam Eaton?).
I'd like to know LA's opinion of letting him play shortstop, which he's done in the past. Having him be a viable option to back up Furcal allows them to not have to carry a Ramon Martinez or Oscar Robles type.
nice points but back injuries scare the hell out of me, i'm gonna be holding my breath evertime he takes the mound in '07.
I'd like to see us buy low with, dare I say it, Chan Ho, and/or Eaton.
I'm wondering what the status of Mark Buerhle is? Is he a FA? Not sure about his health either. If he's healthy and a FA, I'd be happy to make a run at a pitcher like that.
Billingsley is a little iffy.
Maddux should not be resigned due to his being only a 5ip pitcher a year older.
His career workload and peripherals (specifically an anemic K/9) scare me too much to invest either a long term deal or close to $10M in 2007 (via trade) for him.
I like the idea of buying low, but I do not think that Chan Ho's stock is likely to rise.
you really don't think we'll make a run for Schmidt?
i kind of like the idea of Chan Ho in Dodger blue again, i think he's good for atleast 10 to 13 wins
I vehemently believe that Penny should not be traded right now, if ever. You wouldn't get much for him now but if he has a similar first half next year to the one he had this year, you would get exponentially higher value in return.
How much value did Barry Zito lose by making a bad start in Game 1 of the ALCS. I'm wondering myself if it could have cost him as much as $10MM. Think about it, if he goes 7 or 8 strong innings and the A's win, he becomes the Derek Lowe-like big game pitcher of this offseason in addition to being one of the most talented pitchers available. I think teams can point to (possibly) his last start of 2006 and use it as evidence to offer one year less and consequently $10MM less.
He'd better be real cheap (NRI?).
Not only does Maddux not pitch too deep into games, but he doesn't even throw many pitches in doing so. Only once in his last 14 starts did he reach 90 pitches. You would think that low pitch counts will help him go deeper into games, but that doesn't seem to be the case...
true
well they don't call 3rd base the hot corner for nothing. i swear i really thought Garciappara was destined to the hall of fame in his early years, who knows now right?
It depends. Is Kemp ready -- or MOSTLY ready? Can Drew play a creditable CF? Can Ethier?
If enough of those answers are "yes," then I think what I would like to see is some creative solutions... Would it be possible to mix and match at all three outfield positions and both corner infield positions, with Ethier, Kemp, Drew, Loney, Nomar (maybe?), Betemit, and Free Agent Big Bat all in the mix?
I don't know if there IS a Free Agent Big Bat that fits the bill, but if Grady and Ned can get creative about this, I think it might be a solution that gives the rookies their at-bats while also having fall-back plans in place if they're not ready, as well as giving Nomar rest from 3B duties with some starts at 1B and days off.
It is quite possible that I'm crazy and/or I don't know what I'm talking about, so go easy here.
I did mention to my friend as we watched that the Barry Zito Offseason Cashometer was dropping like a 12 to 6 curveball.
But does one bad start in the postseason in fact affect his market value? I kind of doubt it. He had a bad start, it happens. You know what you're going to get with Zito - a durable, soft-tossing lefty with good breaking stuff, a fly-ball pitcher who gives up his share of home runs (actually more at the spacious Coliseum than on the road) but manages to allow a low batting average against while putting up fairly average K/9 numbers. I doubt one bad start overrides his track record.
Meche (and Eaton) rely on the flyball a little too much for my sanity (I think of Jae Seo).
Games: 9
IP: 63.0
Hits: 41
HR: 3
K/BB: 45/21
Runs: 15
ERA: 1.43
WHIP: 0.98
Granted, some of these stats were compiled against the 2005 Dodgers, but they are pretty solid.
The Dodgers might be able to get him fairly cheap (compared to the price of free agent pitching) given his injury history, and he seems to have a decent upside.
As far as the pitching situation goes - the only way I'd move Penny is if it was in a deal for A-Rod. As far as the fifth starter goes - Zito, Matsuxaka, Buerhle all sound good to me.
In the outfield, I'd be fine seeing Ethier, Kemp and Drew - however they decide to align themselves. Kemp and Ethier have time to develop into power hitters.
The big question - after pitching help - is third base. And the future problem will be second base.
My unfounded fear is that Ned will go after Jason Marquis, who posted a nice win total but terrible numbers otherwise. (He is not even on the Cardinals' postseason roster, if I heard correctly.)
Somebody tell me about Freddy Garcia. Is he a trade option worth discussing?
And forever rue the day
my first chuckle of the day :o)
Good pitcher, but Kenny Williams will no doubt want a big package in return.
He's got a $10M option that needs to be picked up for next year. They'll probably exercise it, and decide if he's the one to trade.
so I assume that CF or LF or 3B will be addressed. Possibly 1B.
Personally at 3b, I am cool with Wilson or Laroach. But wouldnt mind A-rod or Armis Ramirez.
At CF-trade for Andrew Jones . I would love that..(who wouldn't) I just can't take such piss poor defense out of Lofton. He hit decent, but he is still a light hitting slap hitter and we have plenty of those.
At LF- bring in Soriano or Carlos Lee.
1B-Loney.
We have the money and we have the trading chips. I have been waiting for this for a while. We really should be a chamiponship level team moving forward.
Eaton for some reason (i could be wrong here) reminds me of Tomko.
He won't get a steady diet of Alex Cora and Fred McGriff anymore.
One note on Loney, while you would expect this comment about a player who led the league in batting average, a lot of PCL observers thought he had the best swing and both Loney and LaRoche figure to be good defensive players at the MLB level.
i wouldn't mind Ramirez at all A-Rod is what ever to me.
And did everyone see the link to Matsuzaka's infamous gyroball yesterday? See if you can tell which pitch it is here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsptUfnhVcc
I like the idea of moving J.D. to center and then having Kemp and Ethier in the corners or you can then go after Lee or Soriano for one of the corner spots.
I will wait to hear about LaRoche's surgery and his recovery time before we can address 3B.
i think those we're all splitters & fastball no?
Yeah, not an A-rod fan at all. I can't stand him actually. But in the regular season he is good for 100 30 100 .280-.300 (985 career OPS) so that works for me.
To clarify further, yeah i'd also like a legit arm but you guys have all that talk well covered so I didnt go there.
I think that Laroche, Kemp, Ethier, Loney or Broxton would be a fair price to pay in addition to Penny (and maybe a lower level Pitcher like Greg Miller).
They'll want pitching, and at least one off your "untouchable" list.
My $.02 on the LAD rotation is that unless they are able to outbid the NYY and Seattle for Matsuzaka, or those two and half a dozen other teams for Schmidt, then they would probably be best off taking a flyer on a Randy Wolf type and saving the $$ for the deadline...you all saw how much help Colletti was able to pick up midseason this year, but keep in mind that the farm system is that much weaker now...
TINSTAAPP, baby, TINSTAAPP (when it comes to trading for superstars at least).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bdr0N9HDptg
I really like Vicente Padilla and would like to obtain him. I don't know if the numbers will bare this out, but it seems to me that he get tougher when runners are on base.
sorry, I'm a youngin' and am not down with the lingo.
Basically says that pitchers are much more difficult to project success at the big league level, and combined with the looming threat of serious injury, cautions against overvaluing minor league pitching. I think it originated in Baseball Prospectus (?).
Doesn't mean you get fast and loose with trading your minor league pitching, but if NY came with an offer of ARod for Broxton/Elbert/Betemit, you should be very tempted.
The cool thing about the gyroball is that it looks a lot like that tailing fastball that, oddly enough, Derek Lowe threw about 90% of the time during his no-hitter...trying to find some vid of that shall be my next non-HW mission!
Or, conversely -- and maybe more to the point -- at least one of them is probably not going to turn into a good big league pitcher.
I'm certainly not advocating any Scott Elbert for Freddy Garcia trades here...
I can see jettisoning Lofton, Lugo, Hendrickson, Tomko (or Sele) and probably Nomar and then having enough to sign Soriano/Lee/Ramirez and Schmidt/Zito/Gyroball Guy or somebody comparable.
Not very well...
i think most people with half a brain wouldn't either.
You've got to be kidding...
no way man. Bob Saget is a dirty dirty hilarious man.
expect alot of cursing from Saget
to be really honest i really was taken back at how much he curses in his shows, i mean the guy was americas funnies videos! for crying out loud.
87 - Wasn't a big fan of aristocrats to say the least. Don't get my wrong, I love dirty humor, but it was really forced. I only found Jon Stewart's reluctance to participate funny.
Of course, I am just speculating here.
Saying the Dodgers lost to the Mets because the pitchers didn't go 6 innings needs to be qualified a bit because any pitcher can be left in the game 6 innings. The statement should read something to the effect, "None of the Dodger pitchers lasted 6 innings because of [fill in the blank reason]".
vr, Xei
agreed, Vinnie would mention that a # of times, how about if we had Carlos Lee Vinnie would say how Saenz & Lee are from Panama.
i'd take it a bit forther & say Padilla Flotilla LA TORTILLA
I'd expect he'd be looking for a multi-year deal and a nice payday.
when he had a good fastball maybe but i wouldn't offer him a big contract, i've seen him get bombed at times.
But yeah, doubtful I'd match the contract offers he'd expect to get this offseason.
maybe i'm crazy but i like some other posters idea of bringing back Chan Ho Park, i think he's still good for double digit wins, Eaton scares me.
I wonder if Soriano is OK with being an outfielder now? I don't have a preference for anyone, I'd just like to see one big bat somewhere and one really good pitcher (say something above Penny's VORP this year).
By the end I was in hysterics. Even comedians I've never liked, like Drew Carey, made me laugh. Saget, yes. Sarah Silverman -- the best! Gilbert Gottfried. Paul Reiser. This joke let you see inside a portion of their minds.
Anyway...I guess this proves taste is an individual thing.
Back to pitching...
111 Bad ending? I thought it was fabulous. How did it put you off? (dancing around any spoilers, of course)
ps i will admit me & my girl were talking about the movie alot once we left the theatre
Matsuzaka and Lee, assuming we can go after a Zito/ Matsuzaka/ Schmidt
If not that:
Padilla and Lee
I DON'T want Soriano instead of Lee. With Soriano, we might get another position issue.
http://tinyurl.com/yfx8dr
Outfielders:
What about Gary Matthews Jr in CF ?
Starting Pitchers:
What about Mulder or Lilly?
I don't really see anyone on the list that jumps out as a must have in the outfield. Couple of stop-gap kind of players that would give Kemp another year to develop.
i don't know about Pettitte, i'd give Schmidt a contract over Pettitte.
ps how about Barajas as our back up catcher? good arm o.k. bat.
That's the essence of the joke and comedians in my mind. I once heard Orson Bean do a slow build-up joke on Carson where he talked for about 5 minutes just describing two jungle animals in a swamp. The punchline was "I dont' know, what do you want to do" which normally would not be funny. But after Bean's build-up, it was hilarious and had Carson in stitches. Only a really good comedian can do that.
you think he's still good for 25 dingers & 90+ RBI's? his glove will obviosly still be there better than Lofton that's for sure.
That's all they need, I think. I'm a little skeptical that Kemp is ready, and that Ethier is up to his 2006 standards. But I think signing a Lee or Soriano ties up the corner OF slots (with Drew) for too long, pushing Ethier and Kemp out of a roster spot. I like the low-cost, low-commitment stop gaps.
I'd like to see Kemp and Ethier get a shot next year to play the corners (with Drew in Center, where he wants to play) because at some point you gotta give the prospects a shot and next year is as good as any.
Of course, if this is indeed part of the explanation, then: (1) his BABIP home/road split should be huge, and (2) his teammates should benefit in similar ways, at least the ones with similar FB/GB ratios.
I have no idea if this is true. Anyone have any facts that could confirm or refute this hypothesis? If it's partly correct, of course, it would bode ill for BZ in the newly configured Dodger Stadium.
Since HRs don't count in BABIP, my hypothesis is still alive, but not by much (I can't actually find Home/Road BABIP splits.)
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