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About Jon
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
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4) arguing for the sake of arguing
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2006-10-12 09:00
by Jon Weisman

You may find this hard to believe.

Derek Lowe ranked 16th in the major leagues in Value Over Replacement Pitcher, which qualifies him as an elite pitcher for 2006 - he'd have been the ace for about half of the teams in baseball.

Many of us have an idea in our head about what a No. 1 starter feels like, but I'm guessing that for the most part, that idea is too lofty. Do you think of Dan Haren as a No. 1? Clay Hensley? Jason Jennings? Aaron Cook? Not that VORP is the be all and end all (for one thing, it's cumulative, so aces who missed part of the season have a handicap), but by that measure, those pitchers were all among the 30 most valuable in baseball.

Starting pitching is a concern for the Dodgers, but don't get taken in by reputations alone. You don't have to average eight innings or have an ERA under 3.00 to be a top pitcher - that is not how it works in our era. Just about any pitcher who can average six effective innings for an entire season has something worth holding on to.

The problem for the Dodgers in 2006 wasn't having to relieve Lowe or Brad Penny or whomever after six innings - the problem was when these guys would get knocked out in the fourth or fifth (or, when a guy like Mark Hendrickson would last six innings but allow five runs in the process). Obviously, that's going to happen occasionally over 162 games, but that's what you need to minimize. The Dodgers got swept in the playoffs largely because they didn't get six innings from any starter.

On the current staff, Lowe is an established six-inning pitcher, except for that one slump a year that you just hope is only a few starts and not a dozen. Chad Billingsley and Hong-Chih Kuo were coming on as six-inning starters. Penny rarely goes beyond six innings, though he did have 14 quality starts in his first 22 before the injuries and whatever else wore him down. (Despite his second-half slump, Penny finished 47th in starting pitcher VORP this season, qualifying him, like it or not, as a No. 2 starter.) Greg Maddux is also someone who gives you his fair share of six-inning games.

Overall in 2006, the Dodgers never really did have five good starters on the beam at once. They don't need a superstar like Johan Santana in order to improve their starting pitching - but they do need to better than Hendrickson. They need more consistency. I'm more convinced than ever before that the difference between great, good, mediocre and lousy pitchers is their level of consistency. The worst major league pitcher could retire Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard and Joe Mauer in a given inning - some pitchers just display that ability more than others.

Lowe and Billingsley strike me as good bets to be satisfactory pitchers in 2006, and if Kuo is durable enough, him too. Penny, if his problems are solvable (and I have to feel they are - I'm struggling to believe his career is suddenly over) would be a fourth. Maddux could be the fifth, but if that's your five then you're placing a lot of oddsy bets. I think the Dodgers need more depth in the rotation, with our without Maddux - but again, there may be some hidden gems out there, more expensive than your Aaron Seles but a lot cheaper than your Barry Zitos, that could help out.

Comments (146)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-10-12 09:37:06
1.   Bluebleeder87
Lowe is a quality starter tht eats up innings during crunch time so i really like him as a Dodgers, now Brad Penny is another story i wouldn't be mad @ all if they traded the guy.
2006-10-12 09:38:21
2.   Bluebleeder87
i also heard Garciaparra will most likely not be back in Dodger blue this according to Plashke.
2006-10-12 09:38:27
3.   NoHoDodger
Remember, Hendrickson was suppose to be the "innings eater" guy. Didn't happen. I agree, we need another "solid" quality pitcher who can go 6-8 innings on any given day. He ALSO must have very good stuff. Hendrickson is a junk baller who throws lollipops up to the plate, with little pinpoint precision
2006-10-12 09:50:26
4.   Robert Fiore
A broken clock is right twice a day, but please don't listen to Plaschke.

I don't know, people said over and over what a horrible signing Lowe was, but he seems to have been the most solid thing they had over the last couple of years. If there are better pitchers available for less money then order me up three or four of them.

2006-10-12 09:55:19
5.   RELX
2. Actually, in today's article, Plashke talked about how HE doesn't think the Dodgers shouldn't resign Nomar, not that the Dodgers weren't definitely not going to. I wonder if it is just his speculation, or if he has some inside information?

The perfect position for Nomar would be 3B. He could play his usual 100-120 games there, and Betemit could pick up the rest of the starts, plus whatever else he could cobble up from Kent at second, which I am sure would be at least 10-20 starts. This way, Betemit gets to be the super utility player, which I have a feeling is the best role for him, and it gives LaRoche another year in the minors, which he probably needs.

2006-10-12 10:02:09
6.   blue22
1 - LA doesn't have the depth to sustain losing Penny. It's unlikely you'll get anyone of Penny's ability this offseason for what Penny is under contract for (about $9M per for the next two years). I'd suck it up and hope he returns to form after an offseason to rehab whatever it is that ails him.

Glancing over the FA starting pitchers, there's the upper tier (Schmidt, Zito) and a lot of lower tier back-end guys (Miguel Batista, Tomo Ohka), but very few middle guys in Penny's class (maybe Mike Mussina, Adam Eaton?).

2006-10-12 10:04:13
7.   blue22
5 - Betemit gets to be the super utility player, which I have a feeling is the best role for him

I'd like to know LA's opinion of letting him play shortstop, which he's done in the past. Having him be a viable option to back up Furcal allows them to not have to carry a Ramon Martinez or Oscar Robles type.

2006-10-12 10:09:19
8.   Bluebleeder87

nice points but back injuries scare the hell out of me, i'm gonna be holding my breath evertime he takes the mound in '07.

2006-10-12 10:27:01
9.   bearlurker
I think this would be a bad time to trade Penny, given that his stock is pretty low.

I'd like to see us buy low with, dare I say it, Chan Ho, and/or Eaton.

2006-10-12 10:30:53
10.   Trolley Dodger
I agree with keeping Penny around. I doubt he has completely lost it.

I'm wondering what the status of Mark Buerhle is? Is he a FA? Not sure about his health either. If he's healthy and a FA, I'd be happy to make a run at a pitcher like that.

2006-10-12 10:31:28
11.   JoeyP
I'd count on Lowe, Penny, and Kuo.
Billingsley is a little iffy.
Maddux should not be resigned due to his being only a 5ip pitcher a year older.
2006-10-12 10:37:14
12.   blue22
10 - Buerhle has a $9.5M option for next year. They've said that they intend to open a spot in the rotation for McCarthy, but that means one of Garcia, Buerhle, Garland, Contreras, or Vazquez needs to be dealt with. Seems simple enough that Buerhle be odd man out by not picking up his option, but they may do so out of loyalty or to possibly trade him.

His career workload and peripherals (specifically an anemic K/9) scare me too much to invest either a long term deal or close to $10M in 2007 (via trade) for him.

2006-10-12 10:37:24
13.   Humma Kavula
Chan Ho? There but for the grace of Dan Evans...

I like the idea of buying low, but I do not think that Chan Ho's stock is likely to rise.

2006-10-12 10:37:53
14.   Bluebleeder87

you really don't think we'll make a run for Schmidt?

2006-10-12 10:39:48
15.   Humma Kavula
14 I would really, really hope that the team would make a run for Schmidt or Zito or Matsuzaka. Among those three, I have my preference, but what I hope most is that any one of them is a Dodger next year.
2006-10-12 10:40:50
16.   Bluebleeder87

i kind of like the idea of Chan Ho in Dodger blue again, i think he's good for atleast 10 to 13 wins

2006-10-12 10:40:57
17.   Brent is a Dodger Fan
9 He he he... Penny stock... (had to be said)
2006-10-12 10:41:35
18.   blue22
14 - I think he's saying those are who he "counts on" for next year. Kinda hard to count on a guy that gets to pick who he pitches for next year.
2006-10-12 10:43:20
19.   Steve in Rochester
As others have said, I would be careful to distinguish Mr. Plaschke's opinion from fact. The Nomar question has me puzzled. I'm not convinced he could hold up at 3b for a whole season when we know he wasn't even close to holding up at 1b for a whole season. Is there any empirical research on how much harder it is to play the other three infield positions and stay healthy vs. playing 1b?

I vehemently believe that Penny should not be traded right now, if ever. You wouldn't get much for him now but if he has a similar first half next year to the one he had this year, you would get exponentially higher value in return.

How much value did Barry Zito lose by making a bad start in Game 1 of the ALCS. I'm wondering myself if it could have cost him as much as $10MM. Think about it, if he goes 7 or 8 strong innings and the A's win, he becomes the Derek Lowe-like big game pitcher of this offseason in addition to being one of the most talented pitchers available. I think teams can point to (possibly) his last start of 2006 and use it as evidence to offer one year less and consequently $10MM less.

2006-10-12 10:43:34
20.   Humma Kavula
16 I take back my snotty remark. I guess it depends on who else is slated for the starting rotation and where else that money might be spent. If Colletti has extra cash to play with and Chan Ho -- for example -- keeps, say, Hendrickson (or more likely Tomko) from making a start next year, I can endorse that experiment.
2006-10-12 10:44:28
21.   blue22
Chan Ho had a 4.81 era and gave up 20 HR's in only 136 IPs last year, while starting half his games in Petco.

He'd better be real cheap (NRI?).

2006-10-12 10:51:22
22.   D4P
Maddux should not be resigned due to his being only a 5ip pitcher a year older

Not only does Maddux not pitch too deep into games, but he doesn't even throw many pitches in doing so. Only once in his last 14 starts did he reach 90 pitches. You would think that low pitch counts will help him go deeper into games, but that doesn't seem to be the case...

2006-10-12 10:52:41
23.   Bluebleeder87


2006-10-12 10:55:37
24.   Bluebleeder87
Is there any empirical research on how much harder it is to play the other three infield positions and stay healthy vs. playing 1b?

well they don't call 3rd base the hot corner for nothing. i swear i really thought Garciappara was destined to the hall of fame in his early years, who knows now right?

2006-10-12 10:57:04
25.   jasonungar05
What do you guys think we should do about CF? I think thats the biggest positional weakness heading into the offseason.
2006-10-12 10:57:22
26.   bigcpa
Looking for the next Aaron Harang breakout guy... a couple of under-the-radar FA's I like with some upside- Gil Meche (28) and Vicente Padilla (29).
2006-10-12 10:57:47
27.   blue22
22 - And I still haven't heard how LA signs him for less than 90% of his current salary. That seems awfully expensive to me for what he brings (on the field at least), and I think I'd be tempted to go find someone else with some of that $7-8M.
2006-10-12 11:07:22
28.   Linkmeister
Actually, I kinda did think of Jason Jennings as a #1 pitcher, at least on the staff he's on. If memory serves, he was tough on the Dodgers.
2006-10-12 11:09:58
29.   Humma Kavula
25 CF:

It depends. Is Kemp ready -- or MOSTLY ready? Can Drew play a creditable CF? Can Ethier?

If enough of those answers are "yes," then I think what I would like to see is some creative solutions... Would it be possible to mix and match at all three outfield positions and both corner infield positions, with Ethier, Kemp, Drew, Loney, Nomar (maybe?), Betemit, and Free Agent Big Bat all in the mix?

I don't know if there IS a Free Agent Big Bat that fits the bill, but if Grady and Ned can get creative about this, I think it might be a solution that gives the rookies their at-bats while also having fall-back plans in place if they're not ready, as well as giving Nomar rest from 3B duties with some starts at 1B and days off.

It is quite possible that I'm crazy and/or I don't know what I'm talking about, so go easy here.

2006-10-12 11:11:53
30.   Johnson
19 How much value did Barry Zito lose by making a bad start in Game 1 of the ALCS.

I did mention to my friend as we watched that the Barry Zito Offseason Cashometer was dropping like a 12 to 6 curveball.

But does one bad start in the postseason in fact affect his market value? I kind of doubt it. He had a bad start, it happens. You know what you're going to get with Zito - a durable, soft-tossing lefty with good breaking stuff, a fly-ball pitcher who gives up his share of home runs (actually more at the spacious Coliseum than on the road) but manages to allow a low batting average against while putting up fairly average K/9 numbers. I doubt one bad start overrides his track record.

2006-10-12 11:11:59
31.   Linkmeister
Bradley played right field for the As last night, after (I think) playing CF the night before. Anyway, switching outfielders around can be done. Whether it can be done without making it feel like management is just jerking players around is another question.
2006-10-12 11:12:24
32.   blue22
26 - Padilla looks good (pretty good control, good K rates, keeps the ball in the park). I wonder why he hasn't found any consistent success.

Meche (and Eaton) rely on the flyball a little too much for my sanity (I think of Jae Seo).

2006-10-12 11:23:23
33.   heato
I know Adam Eaton might have some injury issues, but his career stats at Dodger Stadium are not too shabby (small sample size alert):

Games: 9
IP: 63.0
Hits: 41
HR: 3
K/BB: 45/21
Runs: 15
ERA: 1.43
WHIP: 0.98

Granted, some of these stats were compiled against the 2005 Dodgers, but they are pretty solid.

The Dodgers might be able to get him fairly cheap (compared to the price of free agent pitching) given his injury history, and he seems to have a decent upside.

2006-10-12 11:26:50
34.   KG16
I think Nomar needs to go to the AL where he can pick up 20-30 games as a DH. He's a heck of a player, but it's been a long time since he's not broken down by the end of the season. Plus, as much as it pains me to say, Plaschke is right - Loney is ready.

As far as the pitching situation goes - the only way I'd move Penny is if it was in a deal for A-Rod. As far as the fifth starter goes - Zito, Matsuxaka, Buerhle all sound good to me.

In the outfield, I'd be fine seeing Ethier, Kemp and Drew - however they decide to align themselves. Kemp and Ethier have time to develop into power hitters.

The big question - after pitching help - is third base. And the future problem will be second base.

2006-10-12 11:27:04
35.   caseybarker
A friend of mine used to say Adam had the Dodgers "...Eat-on out of his hand."
2006-10-12 11:29:30
36.   Terry A
I think if one start costs Zito anything off his new contract, it will be sufficient evidence to suggest collusion is alive and well. Somebody will pay the Zito/Boras asking price.

My unfounded fear is that Ned will go after Jason Marquis, who posted a nice win total but terrible numbers otherwise. (He is not even on the Cardinals' postseason roster, if I heard correctly.)

Somebody tell me about Freddy Garcia. Is he a trade option worth discussing?

2006-10-12 11:31:11
37.   D4P
Somebody will pay the Zito/Boras asking price

And forever rue the day

2006-10-12 11:42:42
38.   Bluebleeder87
It is quite possible that I'm crazy and/or I don't know what I'm talking about, so go easy here.

my first chuckle of the day :o)

2006-10-12 11:44:22
39.   blue22
36 - Somebody tell me about Freddy Garcia

Good pitcher, but Kenny Williams will no doubt want a big package in return.

He's got a $10M option that needs to be picked up for next year. They'll probably exercise it, and decide if he's the one to trade.

2006-10-12 11:44:30
40.   jasonungar05
I don't think were going to head into the year with: Loney, Kent, Furcal, Betemit, Drew, Kemp, Ethier, Martin. I wouldn't mind that but do believe that we should replace one of those spots with an MVP type player-Middle of an order type bat.

so I assume that CF or LF or 3B will be addressed. Possibly 1B.

Personally at 3b, I am cool with Wilson or Laroach. But wouldnt mind A-rod or Armis Ramirez.

At CF-trade for Andrew Jones . I would love that..(who wouldn't) I just can't take such piss poor defense out of Lofton. He hit decent, but he is still a light hitting slap hitter and we have plenty of those.

At LF- bring in Soriano or Carlos Lee.


We have the money and we have the trading chips. I have been waiting for this for a while. We really should be a chamiponship level team moving forward.

2006-10-12 11:45:17
41.   Bluebleeder87

Eaton for some reason (i could be wrong here) reminds me of Tomko.

2006-10-12 11:46:39
42.   blue22
33 - As with all comparisons like that, remember that it was the Dodger offense he was facing during those starts.

He won't get a steady diet of Alex Cora and Fred McGriff anymore.

2006-10-12 11:47:45
43.   Steve in Rochester
as much as most posters here may hate to think about it, I consider it almost inevitable that Brett Tomko will get another shot at the rotation at some point during the 2007 season due to his low trade value and contract length. that said, doesn't it seem pretty unlikely that Hendrickson will return?
2006-10-12 11:48:01
44.   blue22
40 - Andruw Jones and Soriano/Lee means another year of a rotation that runs 3-deep, at most.
2006-10-12 11:48:10
45.   bhsportsguy
Baseball America finished its top tens, the names for the PCL are about what you would expect, 4, 5, 6, and 12 went to Billingsley, LaRoche, Kemp and Loney while former Dodger Joel Guzman came in at number 20.

One note on Loney, while you would expect this comment about a player who led the league in batting average, a lot of PCL observers thought he had the best swing and both Loney and LaRoche figure to be good defensive players at the MLB level.

2006-10-12 11:50:13
46.   Bluebleeder87
Personally at 3b, I am cool with Wilson or Laroach. But wouldnt mind A-rod or Armis Ramirez.

i wouldn't mind Ramirez at all A-Rod is what ever to me.

2006-10-12 11:50:36
47.   KG16
43 - I expect Tomko to be a spot starter next year, a very over-paid spot starter, but a spot starter nonetheless. But the only way he finds a spot in the rotation is if someone gets hurt and there is no one in Vegas that can be called up.
2006-10-12 11:51:32
48.   Steve in Rochester
is A-Ram a Boras client?
2006-10-12 11:52:26
49.   das411
Jon, why on earth would you have Mauer batting behind Pujols and Howard??

And did everyone see the link to Matsuzaka's infamous gyroball yesterday? See if you can tell which pitch it is here:

2006-10-12 11:57:36
50.   bhsportsguy
If we are to believe what Ned has been saying since the end of the season, he will target either Schmidt or Zito for the reason that he wants someone who can pitch deep into games. And given the fact that he has a relationship with Schmidt, I would think that would be the player he would go to first.

I like the idea of moving J.D. to center and then having Kemp and Ethier in the corners or you can then go after Lee or Soriano for one of the corner spots.

I will wait to hear about LaRoche's surgery and his recovery time before we can address 3B.

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2006-10-12 11:58:05
51.   Bluebleeder87

i think those we're all splitters & fastball no?

2006-10-12 11:58:22
52.   jasonungar05
44 Sorry, to clarify I just want one of those guys (or guys like them)

Yeah, not an A-rod fan at all. I can't stand him actually. But in the regular season he is good for 100 30 100 .280-.300 (985 career OPS) so that works for me.

To clarify further, yeah i'd also like a legit arm but you guys have all that talk well covered so I didnt go there.

2006-10-12 12:03:12
53.   Benaiah
How is Arod whatever to you? I mean, he certainly wouldn't make our team worse (all things being equal). I would trade Brad Penny in a heartbeat if Arod was coming back. The only untouchables (in a trade for Arod, not in a trade for Lugo V2.0): Billz, Elbert, Kershaw, Martin.
I think that Laroche, Kemp, Ethier, Loney or Broxton would be a fair price to pay in addition to Penny (and maybe a lower level Pitcher like Greg Miller).
2006-10-12 12:07:52
54.   Steve in Rochester
53 the Yanks will demand much more than you detailed in exchange for A-Rod. I have a feeling they will be asking for so much that even the Dodgers with one of the deepest farm systems will walk away.
2006-10-12 12:08:39
55.   blue22
53 - The Yankees don't have much use for young hitters - maybe a guy to man 3rd base. They can continue to buy the hitters available, a strategy that has paid off very well for them.

They'll want pitching, and at least one off your "untouchable" list.

2006-10-12 12:09:04
56.   Benaiah
I personally would rather look for a 3B than a LF or CF. Laroche just had surgery and has yet to spend day 1 on the big league team and Betemit's OBP negates his power. CF is a bit of stretch for either Ethier or Kemp, but still it wasn't the hole that 3B was. I know it is a long shot, but I am hoping against hope that Alex Rodriguez suits up in Dodger blue.
2006-10-12 12:09:25
57.   blue22
55 - ...the best hitters hitters available.
2006-10-12 12:10:12
58.   das411
Take another look at that second pitch Blue...

My $.02 on the LAD rotation is that unless they are able to outbid the NYY and Seattle for Matsuzaka, or those two and half a dozen other teams for Schmidt, then they would probably be best off taking a flyer on a Randy Wolf type and saving the $$ for the all saw how much help Colletti was able to pick up midseason this year, but keep in mind that the farm system is that much weaker now...

2006-10-12 12:13:04
59.   Benaiah
55 - And there is the rub. I don't like the idea of trading young pitching for hitting. Trading studs like Laroche for Arod is fine, since 4 years of Arod is probably better than 7 years of Laroche. Elbert on the other hand... he might not be replicable.
2006-10-12 12:17:30
60.   blue22
59 - Not just "hitting" though. It's Alex Rodriguez, still in his prime, still capable of putting up monster numbers and being a middle-of-the-order guy for the rest of his 4 year contract.

TINSTAAPP, baby, TINSTAAPP (when it comes to trading for superstars at least).

2006-10-12 12:18:48
61.   Chris H
Here is another clip that claims to show Matsuzaka's gyroball. The clip says the pitch is thrown at 145km/h (~90mph).

2006-10-12 12:19:13
62.   Fallout
I would be disappointed if Loney is not starting at 1st next year. Kemp is not ready. Ideally the Dodgers need to find another OF with power to play CF. If they can't fill the power need in the OF then 3rd base needs to fill the need. Betemit is young. Will the Dodgers give him playing time to see if he will develop into the hitter they need? Probably not if they cannot fill the OF spot with a power hitter. Maybe not even if they do...

I really like Vicente Padilla and would like to obtain him. I don't know if the numbers will bare this out, but it seems to me that he get tougher when runners are on base.

2006-10-12 12:19:43
63.   Steve in Rochester
60 what is TINSTAAPP?

sorry, I'm a youngin' and am not down with the lingo.

2006-10-12 12:21:45
64.   Benaiah
There is no such thing as a pitching prospect
2006-10-12 12:24:27
65.   Benaiah
64 - In other words, pitching is too hard to project and injuries ect make it so that as many can't miss pitchers flame out as make it.
2006-10-12 12:24:47
66.   blue22
63 - There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect.

Basically says that pitchers are much more difficult to project success at the big league level, and combined with the looming threat of serious injury, cautions against overvaluing minor league pitching. I think it originated in Baseball Prospectus (?).

Doesn't mean you get fast and loose with trading your minor league pitching, but if NY came with an offer of ARod for Broxton/Elbert/Betemit, you should be very tempted.

2006-10-12 12:26:28
67.   Benaiah
I agree to a certain extent with TINSTAAPP, however the cure for this unfortunate truth is to keep a lot of lively arms around, not to trade your best pitchers and hope they flame out. I think it is fair to say that between Elbert, Billz and Kershaw, someone is probably going to turn into a good big league pitcher.
2006-10-12 12:27:57
68.   das411
TINSTAAP - See "Sabean, Brian"

The cool thing about the gyroball is that it looks a lot like that tailing fastball that, oddly enough, Derek Lowe threw about 90% of the time during his no-hitter...trying to find some vid of that shall be my next non-HW mission!

2006-10-12 12:29:07
69.   blue22
68 - One "P". I get it. ;-)
2006-10-12 12:30:14
70.   Humma Kavula
I think it is fair to say that between Elbert, Billz and Kershaw, someone is probably going to turn into a good big league pitcher.

Or, conversely -- and maybe more to the point -- at least one of them is probably not going to turn into a good big league pitcher.

2006-10-12 12:33:21
71.   Penarol1916
70. The problem is, you don't know which one will be good and which one will flame out, thus the idea of keeping as many as possible knowing that you don't know anything.
2006-10-12 12:34:56
72.   Humma Kavula
71 Right.
2006-10-12 12:36:54
73.   blue22
I think special rules apply if someone like Alex Rodriguez is made available.

I'm certainly not advocating any Scott Elbert for Freddy Garcia trades here...

2006-10-12 12:39:09
74.   Sushirabbit
One thing about Soriano is that he could possibly play 2B, right? I really think Betemit and Loney are both ready, not so sure about Kemp (mainly defensively). Plus the Dodgers still have Repko and Werth (either to keep or trade). Bob and others have convinced me Matsuzaka is probably not worth the $30 million it will cost, but I am definitely intrigued with him.

I can see jettisoning Lofton, Lugo, Hendrickson, Tomko (or Sele) and probably Nomar and then having enough to sign Soriano/Lee/Ramirez and Schmidt/Zito/Gyroball Guy or somebody comparable.

2006-10-12 12:41:24
75.   D4P
One thing about Soriano is that he could possibly play 2B, right?

Not very well...

2006-10-12 12:47:17
76.   caseybarker
70 71 The thing is, there is always the next draft.
2006-10-12 13:37:07
77.   Bluebleeder87
I'm certainly not advocating any Scott Elbert for Freddy Garcia trades here...

i think most people with half a brain wouldn't either.

2006-10-12 13:37:51
78.   natepurcell
i just bought tickets to bob saget's stand up in tucson next saturday. better be worth it.
2006-10-12 13:40:39
79.   Benaiah
All I am saying is, ARod was worth 12 Win Shares above Bench this year. Over the course of 4 years that is 48 WSAB. If Scott Elbert turned into Jeff Weaver circa 2005 (6 WSAB), then he would be worth 42 WSAB over 7 years. Obviously it is no sure thing that he would even ascend to those modest heights, but that is just a demonstration of why it is always very risky to trade a top 5 pitcher.
2006-10-12 13:41:16
80.   Mark T.R. Donohue
Just because the Dodgers beat the Rockies' brains in all season long doesn't mean you have any right to dis our pitching. Aaron Cook and Jason Jennings are super-awesome and you'd be lucky to have them.
2006-10-12 13:43:14
81.   D4P
i just bought tickets to bob saget's stand up in tucson next saturday

You've got to be kidding...

2006-10-12 13:43:50
82.   natepurcell

no way man. Bob Saget is a dirty dirty hilarious man.

2006-10-12 13:46:32
83.   Bluebleeder87

expect alot of cursing from Saget

2006-10-12 13:47:12
84.   caseybarker
I wonder what Full House was like backstage.
2006-10-12 13:48:38
85.   caseybarker
I loved his cameo in Half Baked.
2006-10-12 13:50:38
86.   Bluebleeder87

to be really honest i really was taken back at how much he curses in his shows, i mean the guy was americas funnies videos! for crying out loud.

2006-10-12 13:54:36
87.   natepurcell
Anyone see his little segment in the aristocrats documentary? Now i am expecting that type of stuff but only 100x worst.
2006-10-12 13:55:19
88.   Bluebleeder87
If I had to choose between A.Jones,Soriano or Lee i'd go with A.Jones, just my two cents
2006-10-12 13:59:11
89.   bearlurker
26 Meche and Padilla are good suggestions. RH coming from the AL and may be under the radar and not that expensive.
2006-10-12 13:59:26
90.   Penarol1916
87. That's about as bad as I've seen him, but I've watched 3 or 4 different HBO specials of his starting in the early '90's and he has gotten progressively cruder, so maybe he will top himself this time around.
2006-10-12 14:01:20
91.   FirstMohican
88 - How many times per year do you think we'd have to hear that A Jones is from Curacao if he was a Dodger?

87 - Wasn't a big fan of aristocrats to say the least. Don't get my wrong, I love dirty humor, but it was really forced. I only found Jon Stewart's reluctance to participate funny.

2006-10-12 14:08:43
92.   gibsonhobbs88
89-Padilla might benefit even more leaving a pitcher's nightmare of a park in Arlington for the friendlier environs of Chavez Ravine. Probably take another .5 to .7 off his ERA from this year. I mean even Chan Ho at least got his ERA under 5 last year pitching in SD when he was God Awful in Texas. IMO the Yankees will ask too much for A-Rod in terms of ML ready pitchers and we are not deep enough in that area yet. If they can add Padilla and Schmidt, that could strengthen us enough to maybe use Penny as trade bait to acquire someone like Andruw Jones, though I know we would have to make it at least a two for 1 to even think about the Braves biting on it.
Of course, I am just speculating here.
2006-10-12 14:13:28
93.   gibsonhobbs88
74 - Loney is ready. After you hit .380 in AAA, you have nothing left to prove there. Betemit, if Nomar doesn't stay, maybe our answer at 3B for next year with Martinez or Saenz spelling him for a breather against tough lefties unless they somehow get A-Ram. IMHO, I think A-Ram might end up a short ride south in Anaheim. I don't think Stoneman wants to part with his young SP to trade for A-Rod.
2006-10-12 14:13:45
94.   Jon Weisman
91 - Agree. The Aristocrats movie was so repetitive and dull and unfunny, I was done after about 25 minutes.
2006-10-12 14:14:22
95.   Xeifrank
If VORP is a counting stat then it is a bit misleading. Yes, durability is important but I would like to see the rankings having converted VORP over into some kind of ratio stat if that is at all possible.

Saying the Dodgers lost to the Mets because the pitchers didn't go 6 innings needs to be qualified a bit because any pitcher can be left in the game 6 innings. The statement should read something to the effect, "None of the Dodger pitchers lasted 6 innings because of [fill in the blank reason]".

vr, Xei

2006-10-12 14:16:44
96.   Johnson
89 Padilla has made over 100 starts for the Phillies, so he's not exactly "under the radar" in that he would be an AL pitcher that NL hitters wouldn't know. As far as good value for the price, I guess it would depend on the price. His '02 and '03 seasons were nice, but he hasn't looked so hot over the last three years and his K rate isn't very good. I don't know if he can offer us much that Tomko can't.
2006-10-12 14:18:53
97.   Benaiah
94 - I thought Sarah Silverman was the lone differing voice in the entire movie, but if you turned it off after 25 minutes you missed her part which was actually very funny. I agree though, the movie was so repetive it was unreal. The joke is so boring to start with, so stretching it out over an hour and a half was like a social experiment in testing the attention spans of people viewing something that was supposed to be very entertaining.
2006-10-12 14:21:02
98.   caseybarker
The Padilla Flotilla lands at DT.
2006-10-12 14:24:57
99.   Bluebleeder87
88 - How many times per year do you think we'd have to hear that A Jones is from Curacao if he was a Dodger?

agreed, Vinnie would mention that a # of times, how about if we had Carlos Lee Vinnie would say how Saenz & Lee are from Panama.

2006-10-12 14:26:34
100.   Bluebleeder87
The Padilla Flotilla lands at DT.

i'd take it a bit forther & say Padilla Flotilla LA TORTILLA

Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2006-10-12 14:29:58
101.   Bluebleeder87
I think i was just baited by CaseyBarker, D'OH!
2006-10-12 14:35:41
102.   blue22
Padilla signed a 1-year deal for $4.5M just last year. He then went out and won 15 games for Texas, pitching 200 solid innings.

I'd expect he'd be looking for a multi-year deal and a nice payday.

2006-10-12 14:36:11
103.   Uncle Miltie
Can any living (and still performing) comedian compare to Stephen Lynch?
2006-10-12 14:39:01
104.   Bluebleeder87

when he had a good fastball maybe but i wouldn't offer him a big contract, i've seen him get bombed at times.

2006-10-12 14:45:34
105.   das411
104 - Yep, Padilla was rather well known in Phila for his occasional bouts with Furcal's Disease also ;)
2006-10-12 14:46:29
106.   blue22
104 - His numbers looked as good last year as they ever have, especially considering he pitched in Texas. With the exception of his 2005 season, where he was pretty wild, his last 4 years have been pretty consistent.

But yeah, doubtful I'd match the contract offers he'd expect to get this offseason.

2006-10-12 14:52:17
107.   Bluebleeder87

maybe i'm crazy but i like some other posters idea of bringing back Chan Ho Park, i think he's still good for double digit wins, Eaton scares me.

2006-10-12 14:55:53
108.   Bluebleeder87
this is gonna probably be a dumb question but do people in MLB teams frot office get paid even if the season is over? you know like teachers during summer vacation?
2006-10-12 15:06:17
109.   Sushirabbit
75 True. I think that argument has been made for everyone at 2B this year, though. :-)

I wonder if Soriano is OK with being an outfielder now? I don't have a preference for anyone, I'd just like to see one big bat somewhere and one really good pitcher (say something above Penny's VORP this year).

2006-10-12 15:07:14
110.   dzzrtRatt
Sorry to barge in, but I just wanted to speak up for "The Aristocrats." That movie is sort of a funnel. At first, I didn't like it, because the joke is not really that clever and how could anyone, no matter how talented, make it funny?

By the end I was in hysterics. Even comedians I've never liked, like Drew Carey, made me laugh. Saget, yes. Sarah Silverman -- the best! Gilbert Gottfried. Paul Reiser. This joke let you see inside a portion of their minds.

Anyway...I guess this proves taste is an individual thing.

Back to pitching...

2006-10-12 15:08:20
111.   Bluebleeder87
oh i forgat to mention this, WHAT A JIP ON THE DEPARTED! bad ending is all i will say.
2006-10-12 15:10:39
112.   Telemachos
110 The thing about THE ARISTOCRATS is, where did you see it? I saw it with a packed house at the Arclight, and it was one of the funniest movie experiences I've ever had. But I can see how it would be completely un-funny if you rented and watched it at home on DVD.

111 Bad ending? I thought it was fabulous. How did it put you off? (dancing around any spoilers, of course)

2006-10-12 15:13:41
113.   caseybarker
Careful, please, I want to see that movie.
2006-10-12 15:17:43
114.   Bluebleeder87
i don't wanna spoil it for people that haven't seen it but @ the end with the rat was just flat out cheesy no pun (?) intended

ps i will admit me & my girl were talking about the movie alot once we left the theatre

2006-10-12 15:30:31
115.   Bluebleeder87
if i had to choose between Hendy & Tomko i'd keep Hendy.
2006-10-12 15:38:22
116.   thinkingblue
What I would like:

Matsuzaka and Lee, assuming we can go after a Zito/ Matsuzaka/ Schmidt

If not that:

Padilla and Lee

I DON'T want Soriano instead of Lee. With Soriano, we might get another position issue.

2006-10-12 15:41:17
117.   fan 4 40 plus
Good list of free agents at

What about Gary Matthews Jr in CF ?

Starting Pitchers:
What about Mulder or Lilly?

2006-10-12 15:44:17
118.   blue22
An OF rotation of Drew/Soriano/Ethier/Kemp/Repko is pretty scary defensively.
2006-10-12 15:46:14
119.   blue22
118 - Sorry that would be Lee instead of Soriano, but that doesn't make it any less frightening.
2006-10-12 15:49:46
120.   Bluebleeder87
am i crazy for thinking Kerry Wood would make a good closer, he's probably asking for to much money plus he's has arm issues all his career.
2006-10-12 15:51:08
121.   Sushirabbit
I like Lily. I was also wondering about Foulke if Boston is intersted in Lugo. I'd take a gamble on Jamie Wright except, 1) he's a D-Ray and we should know better, 2) We need a proven veteran! Gary Matthews Jr. sounds good to me, too.
2006-10-12 15:52:41
122.   Bluebleeder87
Alex Cora would be a nice back up to Kent.IMO.
2006-10-12 15:54:15
123.   ssjames
117 I wouldn't want Matthews Jr. on my team. He had a career year, and is unlikely to repeat it. It would be just like trading for the 8th best lefthander in the American League.
2006-10-12 15:57:09
124.   blue22
122 - Except we already have Marlon Anderson (unless he's still the starting leftfielder next year - ugh.).
2006-10-12 15:59:54
125.   blue22
117 - Lilly's been a fave around here since last year, when there was some confusion about his FA status. Like Padilla though, he'll probably end up cashing in on a pretty hefty contract. Be prepared to go at least 3 years, and at least $8M per.
2006-10-12 16:03:20
126.   StolenMonkey86
116 - Soriano has stated that he's actually proud of his defense this year. I think he's gonna stay in the outfield.
2006-10-12 16:03:40
127.   caseybarker
We didn't need him in 1998, and we don't need him now;)
2006-10-12 16:04:21
128.   Bluebleeder87
Marlon Anderson's bat was great for the strech run so i'll be o.k. with him still being a Dodger.
2006-10-12 16:08:19
129.   KG16
Since we're talking pitching, what about Pettitte? Minute Maid seems to be a bit of a bang box, so he should be helped by playing in the Ravine, no?

I don't really see anyone on the list that jumps out as a must have in the outfield. Couple of stop-gap kind of players that would give Kemp another year to develop.

2006-10-12 16:11:33
130.   Bluebleeder87

i don't know about Pettitte, i'd give Schmidt a contract over Pettitte.

ps how about Barajas as our back up catcher? good arm o.k. bat.

2006-10-12 16:14:24
131.   blue22
129 - I may be pushing my luck with violation #8 here but...Jim Edmonds!
2006-10-12 16:16:06
132.   Marty
because the joke is not really that clever and how could anyone, no matter how talented, make it funny?

That's the essence of the joke and comedians in my mind. I once heard Orson Bean do a slow build-up joke on Carson where he talked for about 5 minutes just describing two jungle animals in a swamp. The punchline was "I dont' know, what do you want to do" which normally would not be funny. But after Bean's build-up, it was hilarious and had Carson in stitches. Only a really good comedian can do that.

2006-10-12 16:18:27
133.   KG16
131 - I like Jim Edmonds, I met him a few times when I was in college (he use to come to the pizza place I worked out and I use to deliver to his place occasionally), but he's a good player on the back end of his career. I don't see him being much more than a stop gap for a year or two.
2006-10-12 16:20:59
134.   fan 4 40 plus
130 I wouldn't think Barajas is ready to sit out 120 games a year... His 06 contract was $3.6M
2006-10-12 16:23:21
135.   fan 4 40 plus
make that $3.2M
2006-10-12 16:24:49
136.   fan 4 40 plus
Maybe we could sign Mirabelli and then trade him back to the Sox for two ...
2006-10-12 16:25:27
137.   Bluebleeder87

you think he's still good for 25 dingers & 90+ RBI's? his glove will obviosly still be there better than Lofton that's for sure.

2006-10-12 16:27:28
138.   Bluebleeder87
135 i think Toby's contract was around that amount.
2006-10-12 16:30:29
139.   blue22
133 - I don't see him being much more than a stop gap for a year or two.

That's all they need, I think. I'm a little skeptical that Kemp is ready, and that Ethier is up to his 2006 standards. But I think signing a Lee or Soriano ties up the corner OF slots (with Drew) for too long, pushing Ethier and Kemp out of a roster spot. I like the low-cost, low-commitment stop gaps.

2006-10-12 16:31:30
140.   Bluebleeder87
Toby Halls contract was at *3,000,000.00 estimate.
2006-10-12 16:34:15
141.   KG16
137, 139 - I guess it comes down to the contract, if we can get Edmonds on a one year deal, I'd probably take a flyer on him.

I'd like to see Kemp and Ethier get a shot next year to play the corners (with Drew in Center, where he wants to play) because at some point you gotta give the prospects a shot and next year is as good as any.

2006-10-12 16:39:04
142.   blue22
141 - Kemp, for all his hype and early success, only this year finally experienced competition above single-A. I wouldn't consider it a setback at all if the organization asked him to start the season in Vegas before giving him the LA job.
2006-10-12 17:30:23
143.   adraymond
Some of the talk around here seems to imply that Ethier might not be in the opening day line up. I thought he definitely won that spot. I guess all this is speculation is in regards to a potential free agent signing. But with no new Dodger outfielders I've got to think that Ethier is the opening day left fielder. No?
2006-10-12 19:04:19
144.   GoBears
On the off chance that this thread isn't dead, I've got a Zito question. One of the mysteries of BZ is his consistently low BABIP. Some have speculated that his huge curve acts like a knuckler, in that it induces a lot of weak contact. I was just wondering about that cavernous ballpark he plays in, which has as much foul territory as fair. His BABIP might be low in part because the "BIP" denominator is larger than usual.

Of course, if this is indeed part of the explanation, then: (1) his BABIP home/road split should be huge, and (2) his teammates should benefit in similar ways, at least the ones with similar FB/GB ratios.

I have no idea if this is true. Anyone have any facts that could confirm or refute this hypothesis? If it's partly correct, of course, it would bode ill for BZ in the newly configured Dodger Stadium.

2006-10-12 19:17:22
145.   GoBears
Hmm, a little investigation shows that Zito was much WORSE at home in terms of OPS allowed (.833 vs. .684) in 2006, with most of the difference being SLG, in particular twice as many HRs at home than away.

Since HRs don't count in BABIP, my hypothesis is still alive, but not by much (I can't actually find Home/Road BABIP splits.)

2006-10-12 20:26:18
146.   trainwreck
Late to the party, but I agree about the Aristocrats being terrible. I was looking forward to the movie a lot and I barely laughed at all. The joke is not remotely funny at all. Maybe in the days of vaudeville, but not today.

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