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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

How To Avoid Getting Your Arm Chopped Off by the Rumor Mill
2006-10-10 18:01
by Jon Weisman

Or, How To Survive the Hot Stove League Without Getting Burned

1) Rumors are not facts.

2) Teams and agents often float rumors to generate attention or to misdirect rivals. The media will report these rumors without much concern over how viable they are. The rumor is the news - whether it comes to fruition or not is not the media's problem (or so the media has decided).

3) A report that agents, players or teams "were talking" is meaningless. People talk all the time. It doesn't mean anything will come of it.

4) Any rumor attributed to an anonymous source is particularly useless.

5) Making judgments about a general manager based on a rumor reflects poorly on the judge.

6) Many deals, if not most, are never rumored, but spring up out of the blue.

7) Many are eager to pass along rumors. If you are planning to post a rumor here, please check to see if it has been posted already. But whatever you do, don't take the rumors too seriously.

- Your Friendly Hot Stove Curmudgeon

Update: I'm not telling you not to have fun with the Hot Stove. Have fun! I'm just saying that from my experience here, people take the rumors way too seriously, discussion gets heated, and the fun goes away. And that's what I'd like to avoid.

Comments (209)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-10-10 18:17:10
1.   Vishal
5) what about conditional judgements? "if colletti actually makes that trade he needs his head examined"...

part of the fun of HSL is the blatant rumormongering.

2006-10-10 18:24:13
2.   Daniel Zappala
On that old 2004 post, Jon, is there any way to see comments on a post where the comments have been closed?
2006-10-10 18:25:31
3.   bigcpa
Let's come up with a top 10 best reported Dodger trade rumors that didn't happen. Just brainstorming here...

Nomo/Hollandsworth for Unit
Edwin Jackson for Dunn
Edwin Jackson/A. Perez for Hudson
Odalis for Konerko
Penny/Navarro for Vazquez

2006-10-10 18:29:31
4.   bhsportsguy
If there is anything we can learn from Year 1 of the Ned's Regime is that most of his trades and free agent signings came without warning and whenever a name was attached to the Dodgers it proved to be false.

That said, I don't think that if you hear about any potential free agent pitcher or a hitter like Soriano or Lee, you should dismiss it but I do think that from what I have seen so far, if something is put out in the media, it will be close to happening like the Furcal signing.

2006-10-10 18:30:47
5.   bhsportsguy
4 Maybe I should read Jon entries first, see No. 6.
2006-10-10 18:30:58
6.   Sam DC
2 I think you need to go Jon's old All-Baseball site archives and can look at the comments over there.

2006-10-10 18:52:51
7.   JoeyP
Whom was Hollandsworth traded for?
I dont remember.
2006-10-10 18:57:40
8.   Bluebleeder87
i was afraid to ask this question in the A's blog, but do the A's know/play small ball??
2006-10-10 19:05:34
9.   Andrew Shimmin
Hollandsorth, Kevin Gibbs, and Randey Dorame to the Rockies for Tom Godwin plus cash
2006-10-10 19:24:54
10.   DXMachina
Words to live by.
2006-10-10 19:25:03
11.   Linkmeister
8 They don't seem to put players in motion to avoid double plays, that's for sure.
2006-10-10 19:25:53
12.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
All those points are wise advice, but I doubt hardly anyone will actually follow all the principles around here. =) Really, part of rumour mongering is the fun of bandying about nonsense news in the off-season when we don't have real games to fill the time.

More seriously, I've always thought the best part of your analysis Jon is that you're judicious and balanced. Even when you take what could be considered to be a bold position, regarding, for example, bullpen usage, you always credit counter-arguments, and for that you really should be commended. One of the great frustrations I have with the likes of Plaschke is a seeming inability to acknowledge that there might be multiple approaches to the same problem.

All that being said, prudence and good sense are always in short supply, but that's all the more reason to praise those who have more than their fair share...


2006-10-10 19:31:15
13.   thinkblue0
I might get crucified for this, but I'd let Nomar walk, put Loney at first, and go after Soriano and Zito.
2006-10-10 19:37:27
14.   still bevens
8 I dont think they steal many bases. They follow the Depo philosophy of steal if you must, but dont do it in a manner that will result in losing outs. Theres a really long breakdown of the way the A's and Tigers play on Baseball Prospectus today and you dont have to be a member to read it.
2006-10-10 19:41:41
15.   Andrew Shimmin
13- Pfff. That's nothing; I'd let Nomar and Maddux walk.
2006-10-10 19:41:50
16.   Linkmeister
14 Well, I asked at Catfish Stew if they ever put runners in motion to avoid DPs, and Ken says no. Were I they, I might consider it.
2006-10-10 19:42:03
17.   Nolan
13 - I'm with you for sure on Nomar. My guess is that his numbers next year will look a lot more like his numbers from the second half than the first. Plus, we really can't expect to get more than 125-130 games out of the guy. Loney next year will be better and cheaper than Nomar.

As for Soriano and Zito, I'm with you but it all depends on price tag and I fear that someone will end up overpaying for both. Neither are top, top shelf players but, in a thin year, they'll expect to be paid like they are.

2006-10-10 19:44:29
18.   Bluebleeder87

Did you see Zito today? Soriano i'm cool with.

2006-10-10 19:45:19
19.   gpellamjr
13 Sounds good to me.
2006-10-10 19:45:53
20.   gpellamjr
15 Edgy.
2006-10-10 19:56:09
21.   bill cox
3-How about this one? Joel Guzman and Sergio Pedroza for Julio Lugo.What a laugher that was!Like anyone would have made that trade.Oh wait.Never mind.
2006-10-10 19:59:50
22.   Andrew Shimmin
20- I got my new glasses in the mail today. Rimless, hingeless, edgy as all get out. So, I'm feeling inspired. Inspired enough to trade Derek Lowe!
2006-10-10 20:10:01
23.   scareduck
8 - I don't think so. Four GIDPs?
2006-10-10 20:10:24
24.   PlayTwo
If Lugo had gone on the DL* instead of reporting to the Dodgers his value would be triple what it is now. *Rumor by inference.
2006-10-10 20:24:19
25.   Suffering Bruin
Following up on 1 above (as I enter into grading my one-hundredth essay in three days time...)

1) Rumors are not facts. But rumors or more fun and usually lead to some form of partying: drinking, eating, food fights, etc.

2) Teams and agents often float rumors to generate attention or to misdirect rivals. The media will report these rumors without much concern over how viable they are. The rumor is the news - whether it comes to fruition or not is not the media's problem (or so the media has decided). For that I say, "God bless the media!"

3) A report that agents, players or teams "were talking" is meaningless. People talk all the time. It doesn't mean anything will come of it. This is false. Everyone knows that when players or teams "were talking" it can mean nothing but interest of the highest order on both parties. I am often shocked that when two parties "were talking" a deal is not announced the following afternoon. Why is that?

4) Any rumor attributed to an anonymous source is particularly useless. But the rumor could be true...

5) Making judgments about a general manager based on a rumor reflects poorly on the judge. But the judgment could be true...

6) Many deals, if not most, are never rumored, but spring up out of the blue. Dammit, man, I cannot engage in witty repartee with an incontrovertible truth! Stop it, I say!

7) Many are eager to pass along rumors. If you are planning to post a rumor here, please check to see if it has been posted already. But whatever you do, don't take the rumors too seriously. Everytime we turn up our nose at rumors, a fairy loses its wings. You want that on your conscience? Fine. Until then, when does Zito sign with the Dodgers?

2006-10-10 20:34:19
26.   The Assimilated Negro
Dodgers are an interesting team. They were beat up in the series, but i think you gotta like their core more than any other team in the NL West.

I think you have to cut ties with Nomar. He's a greek tragedy for a franchise. Everyone loves him, injuries always get him. I'd project Betemit there. Though if a move happened, that's a deep position league-wide. Blalock comes up often. Maybe Beltre can return to LA?

You could also trade for ARod. I bet he'd be a great Dodger. Big stage, but less pressure. Perfect. Push for ARod.

Speaking of great Dodgers, how about the return of Gary Sheffield?

CF is the spot you need to fill, but no one available in FA. Gagne is a huge x-factor. Like Nomar, he's a heart-breaker. But I'm more inclined to take a shot on the pitcher.

A lot of DePodesta bashing in the NLDS. With the team in its current position, not to knock Ned, but I'd rather have Paul in a crossroad time like this.

2006-10-10 20:34:59
27.   Steve
I heard a rumor that D4P wants us to sign Torii Hunter.
2006-10-10 20:44:19
28.   trainwreck
I didn't even notice until today that Terry Collins left us.
2006-10-10 20:47:39
29.   Suffering Bruin
27 It's why I hate you. I take ten-fifteen minutes to try to be funny... and you're funnier in one line. Don't think I haven't forgotten "Walking Counsell is like crossing the streams... not good."

Because I haven't. This ain't over.


Yeah, I've been reading too many high school essays and I'm a little punchy...

2006-10-10 20:48:41
30.   D4P
Scanning brain for witty rejoinder...File not found...
2006-10-10 20:49:14
31.   Bluebleeder87
A lot of DePodesta bashing in the NLDS. With the team in its current position, not to knock Ned, but I'd rather have Paul in a crossroad time like this.

but he's not a good communicator.

2006-10-10 20:49:38
32.   xaphor
27. Hunter's option was picked up but the rumor on the last thread is that he is pushing hard for a Drew for Torii swap.
2006-10-10 20:50:59
33.   Bluebleeder87

i'm sure he's a good guy & all but i could care less

2006-10-10 20:51:37
34.   thinkingblue
I wonder, why is the consensus to get Zito? I think assuming we have the money, and looking at his periphials, Matsuzaka will clearly be a better pitcher.
2006-10-10 20:56:02
35.   trainwreck
I think Zito will be out of our price range.
2006-10-10 20:56:24
36.   Jon Weisman
31 - "But he's not a good communicator."

Perfect example of a rumor getting blown out of proportion.

2006-10-10 21:02:55
37.   Marty
36 But he definitely didn't know the territory.
2006-10-10 21:18:47
38.   Bluebleeder87

the times i heard him he was o.k. but not in Ned's league at all.IMO.

2006-10-10 21:25:42
39.   KG16
34 - we've all seen Zito (plus I think it has something to do with the philosophy of the team he currently plays for), where as we haven't seen Matsuzaka.

Personally, I'd be happy with either one. The key is getting a top line starting pitcher. As it stands the Bums have four projected starters (Penny, Lowe, Kuo, Billingsly), and I don't think Ned and Grady are so old school that they'd go with a four man rotation.

I'm more interested in the hole at third base at the moment. And what will most likely be a hole at second in the next couple of years (Kent has to drop off at some point, right?).

2006-10-10 21:25:48
40.   dzzrtRatt
1 "if colletti actually makes that trade he needs his head examined"...

How it usually comes out is: "Colletti making that trade is why he needs his head examined." In other words, people assume the rumors give a credible view of his philosophy, plans, and mindset, when it's just as likely that he's hearing these rumors the same time we are, and finds them just as ridiculous.

Even his bad deals in '06...I saw glimpses of why he made them toward the end of the season and during the playoffs. My hat's off to Colletti. If you judge him by his results, he did pretty well for a first year.

2006-10-10 21:28:19
41.   trainwreck
Betemit could play second and DeWitt or Abreu could be our future there.

I am a fan of Blake so I hope he breaks through and will eventually take the job.

2006-10-10 21:29:09
42.   thinkingblue

there's a look at Matsuzaka pitching

2006-10-10 21:30:12
43.   D4P
If you judge him by his results, he did pretty well for a first year

I've thought about that, and tried to identify the appropriate "standard" for evaluating his performance. The most obvious is to compare the 2006 record to the 2005, but I don't think that's appropriate in this case...

2006-10-10 21:36:56
44.   dzzrtRatt
31 A lot of DePodesta bashing...?

Well? The support around here for his deals was predicated on the expectation that LoDuca, Green and Stewart were inevitably, inexorably declining, and soon. Two years later, that prediction doesn't look so good.

I applaud DePodesta for not giving away good young players to patch holes in a mediocre team, and then managing to win the division despite Penny's injury. But...I think he was a bit of a piker. I don't think he was respected by his peers. They judged him as in over his head. That affected the kind of response he got from everyone he needed to deal with, from Tracy, to the players, to the other GMs. He'd be smart to stay in Alderson's shadow for awhile, and grow a few gray hairs before he tries to GM again.

Meanwhile, don't forget -- Colletti still has Ng, Logan White and Roy Smith around him. DePodesta's brain trust.

2006-10-10 21:43:21
45.   dzzrtRatt
43 The most obvious is to compare the 2006 record to the 2005, but I don't think that's appropriate in this case...

Why not? Because of the injuries in '05?

It's possible that the '05 healthy could have won the NL West. But the '06 team did win the division, despite suffering almost as many injuries. No Gagne, no Werth, Nomar out for weeks, Kent playing hurt or out for weeks, Penny playing hurt, Navarro on the DL (and then, lucky us, Martin turns out to be an improvement), etc....

The other thing I credit Colletti with: Recognizing and dealing with his mistakes. The bad deals made at the beginning of the season were mostly undone by the middle of the season, and at minimal cost.

2006-10-10 21:46:55
46.   caseybarker
42 Was that last batter Larry Sheets?
2006-10-10 21:49:04
47.   gpellamjr
45 I think the problem with comparing the two years is the fact that neither '06 nor '05 were the constructs of a single GM's work. I really don't think there is a good way to rate Colletti yet.
2006-10-10 21:49:09
48.   caseybarker
Maybe Andy Sheets.
2006-10-10 21:49:25
49.   D4P
Why not? Because of the injuries in '05?

Yes, some degree of "bounce back" was virtually inevitable, and Ned clearly doesn't deserve any credit for that. I also don't think he deserves credit for players like Martin, Billingsley, Loney, and Kemp who made valuable contributions.

The (impossible to answer) question is, how much did he improve the team over what it would have been had he not done anything (or had Depo still been around)?

2006-10-10 21:50:19
50.   gpellamjr
38 What was the inadequacy in Depo's communication? I've heard this accusation repeatedly, but I've never heard where it comes from.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2006-10-10 21:51:03
51.   regfairfield
44 While Lo Duca did well, Shawn Green was pretty terrible this year at .277/.344/.432, 9.1 runs over replacement.
2006-10-10 21:52:26
52.   Steve
I heard a rumor that D4P's brain scanner is broken.
2006-10-10 22:02:02
53.   Andrew Shimmin
Green and Lo Duca have declined. Green's is unambiguous, but that trade is still iffy. He would have been very useful to the team, last year, the Dodgers picked up most of his guaranteed salary, and, after the fact, we can see that what came back didn't turn out to be much, though that's obviously complicated. Re-evaluating that trade could be fun, but Green seems to be a significantly degraded player from what he was after 2004, which was already much less than he had been (when his contract was signed, in particular).

Lo Duca's a little weird, given he was better this year than he has been since 2003. His glove is still bad, but his batting line looks pretty good. His line drive percentage, this year, was identical to his 2004 one, but his BABIP was thirty points higher. And, since he isn't hitting homeruns any more, that looks (to my amateur eye) to be pretty lucky. With the complicated failure of Ch-i, this deal is hard to assess, too. But Penny, all by his lonesome, was probably more useful than Lo Duca, Encarnacion, and Mota, this year. Especially to the Dodgers, considering Martin.

2006-10-10 22:04:24
54.   Underbruin
44 - There's also the issue that, in some senses, DePodesta is almost as much of a focus as Beane (baseball decisions wise, at least) in Moneyball. And while Beane still has the whole 'at least I played' thing going for him, DePodesta comes off very much as the guy always with his laptop. An unfair proposition, I think, but one that I believe greatly effected perception of him.

45 - How about the extra $20 million in payroll? Plus the fact that at least a reasonable portion of the team's success this season is attributable to young players arriving in 2006, who were still developing in the minors in 2005 and therefore were inaccessible - which helped manage how damaging the 2006 injuries were relative to how much they hurt the team in 2005?

I'm not saying one did a better job than the other. I give DePodesta plenty of credit for having the willingness to go out on a limb in 2004 and still win the division despite losing Penny, as you mentioned. I give Colletti a lot of credit for compiling a team that got back to the playoffs. And I don't want to add any fuel to the whole "DePo v. Ned" argument (it's a moot point, anyway).

I just agree that it's hard to analyze 2005 versus 2006. I think it's just fair to say that I'm glad the Dodgers got back to the playoffs, sad they got swept, and I'm looking forward to 2007 when even more of the kids get up to the big show.

2006-10-10 22:05:23
55.   D4P
The worst part of the Green trade is that it has netted us Mark Hendrickson
2006-10-10 22:09:34
56.   gibsonhobbs88
Did any of you catch some of the Fox broadcast tonight? I almost fell out of my chair when Pinella was discussing Billy Martin and wanting guys who were winners, and Pinella's success with the Reds in 90 was discussed and Pinella's desire to win. Then Lyons popped in with "So, why in the hell did you take the Tampa Bay job?" You could of heard a pin drop in the broadcast booth. Pinella must have given Lyons a death stare. I almost fell out of my chair laughing. Tom Breneman had to soothe the feathers by saying something about Devil Ray Management not fulfilling some promises made to Pinella about committment to improving the team. LOL! Hilarious!
2006-10-10 22:10:42
57.   Underbruin
55 - Amen to that.
2006-10-10 22:20:54
58.   dzzrtRatt
56 Yes, I heard that. A classic moment. I will go easy on Steve Lyons' broadcasts for all of 2007 in appreciation for his meritorious service to my funny bone.

Piniella deserved it, anyway, for trying to present the sociopathic alcoholic sadist Billy Martin as some kind of exemplary manager in the style of Jim Leyland.

2006-10-10 22:23:23
59.   gibsonhobbs88
How much of our free agent $ should go to a front line starter? Ned must watch for going overboard and ending up with another albatross of a long term contract. Dodgers have been burned too many times before to sign a pitcher for longer than 3 years. I think we can get Schmidt for 2-3 years, by then, Elbert Kersaw and Co. might be ready to take the helm. I think Zito will be priced to high. I heard SD wants him real bad. I say you enter the negotiations to offer a tempting three year deal to drive up his price forcing the Padres to offer another year or two. The problem with the Japanese Pitcher that everyone covets is how much he will costs to even retain bargaining rights. He might command 4+ years also. Maybe I'm just scared off due to the Brown/Dreifort debacles.
2006-10-10 22:23:58
60.   Jon Weisman
Wow, Plaschke came out in favor of James Loney and against signing Garciaparra. I'm surprised.

It's a quite rational piece. It gives weight to arguments on both sides, and then goes where the evidence leads.

2006-10-10 22:26:31
61.   gibsonhobbs88
58 - I just thought, my god Steve, you got some cajones to say that to Pinella. True, but gutsy! Gave me a great laugh!!
2006-10-10 22:26:37
62.   das411
59 - So how high do you start Schmidt then? 2 years for...$30 mil? 40? One year for $17m? Remember that Furcal deal peeps, think outside the box here!
2006-10-10 22:29:02
63.   D4P
think outside the box here!

One year for....ONE MILLION DOLLARS!!! (touches pinky to side of mouth...)

2006-10-10 22:30:13
64.   gibsonhobbs88
60- If Nomar is to return, he will have to accept changing position to 3B or accepting a diminished platoon job at 1b or 3B playing primarily against tough lefties for either Betemit or Loney, whoever proves they can't handle lefties. I don't think he will accept that and will end up elsewhere.
2006-10-10 22:31:56
65.   D4P
Does it qualify as "irony" that Plaschke routinely hammered the previous GM for not keeping "fan favorites," and is now recommending that Ned not do so?
2006-10-10 22:34:14
66.   still bevens
59 I would be happy with Schmidt for a Furcal-esque contract of 3 years or so. The only problem would be if his groin causes him to lose significant time. However, I think the risk might pay off because Elbert will be ready in a year or two.

56 Lyons is hilarious. I'm glad he contributes to our road broadcasts. He's no Vin, but who is really? And hes alot better than your Rex Hudler types.

2006-10-10 22:38:56
67.   gibsonhobbs88
54 - I agree with your last paragraph. That sums up how I felt - post mortem on Sunday. I am really looking forward to the further development of Martin, Loney, Ethier, Bills, Kuo and Broxton. It may be 2008 now before we get LaRoche at 3B pending how fast he recovers from the torn labrum but that might set him back a full year. We may have to bite the bullet with Betemit/Nomar or R. Martinez filling in there for next year pending a FA signing of Aramis or a Blockbuster trade for A-Rod(not in favor because we may give up too much pitching in return).
2006-10-10 22:42:19
68.   gibsonhobbs88
66 - Agreed. 2-3 years knowing that due to his age, chance for an injury is possible, but at least you aren't putting yourselves in financial chains for 4-5 years.
2006-10-10 22:43:34
69.   thinkblue0

While it is definitely ironic, I'd rather file it under "pure stupidity".

2006-10-10 22:45:30
70.   Xeifrank
I thought part of the Green trade was to free up money (even though we still paid a part of his salary) which in turn was used to sign Kent or Drew. The two worst moves I think Depo made was 1) trading away Dave Roberts and getting nothing for him in return. He could've been a nice number four outfielder for us the past two years. 2) trading away LoDuca without having a backup plan in place for getting an immediate replacement. I didn't mind the trade in and of itself, just the fact that we pretty much had nobody to replace him with.
vr, Xei
2006-10-10 22:46:19
71.   thinkblue0
is it me, or does the idea of an Arod trade actually not seem all that far fetched?

With all this talk of third base, I wouldn't be against just putting Betemit there full time and having a capable platoon partner with him.

Either way, we've gotta figure out how to get a little pop in this lineup...the only places I can see where that's possible are third base and an OF spot...But what does that do with guys like Kemp and Betemit? This is going to be a very interesting offseason....

2006-10-10 22:48:28
72.   D4P
I think the Green money was allegedly used to sign Lowe
2006-10-10 22:49:37
73.   Xeifrank
Driving home from my softball game this evening I tuned to the A's game which was in the 7th inning. Sure enough there was Joe Morgan yacking away. I could've sworn he made a comment similiar to this... "The A's have a tough time hitting pitchers who have a really good fastball and a really good curveball." Then I get home and the A's are batting in the bottom of the 8th. I turn the TV on thinking I am somewhat safe from dumb comments until John Kruk comes on for postgame comments. But low and behold there is this guy named Lou Pinnela sitting in the broadcasting booth. Milton Bradley tries to steal 3rd base down by 5 runs. Lou Pinella starts praising Bradley for the steal attempt saying this is the type of baseball that he likes. He makes Jim Tracy look like a genius. vr, Xei
2006-10-10 22:51:39
74.   Xeifrank
72. You could probably make the argument that it was for anybody signed that year (Lowe, Kent or Drew). Take your pick. vr, Xei
2006-10-10 22:53:24
75.   caseybarker
Lyons is delirious.

Pinella also said that if the A's keep getting runners on base, eventually they'll score. Smarter than you think, he is.

2006-10-10 22:54:36
76.   caseybarker
I remember the majority of articles I read said that Lowe was signed with the money saved from Green's contract.
2006-10-10 23:10:28
77.   Xeifrank
76. Probably whoever was the next of the three to sign (Drew, Kent, Lowe) after the Green trade would be attributed the title of the person signed with the money saved from Green's contract... when in reality you could say that any of the three were. Not that it really matters as long as the money was saved and put to good use. vr, Xei
2006-10-10 23:34:54
78.   LAT
I believe there is factual support for the allegation that "Depo is a poor communicator." IIRC, a number of players and their agents claimed they had not heard from him regarding trades or efforts to re-sign. (Read, Cora, Beltre, Green etc.) Specifically, Beltre made claims about buying a house and Cora had no idea he was gone. We had many discussions here last year about whether this was a consideration players deserve. Some felt the players are professionals and paid enough that they don't need their hand held while others felt some contact would have been the right thing to do. Regardless I don't think its pure "rumor."

Also I think there is no doubt that Depo faced a perfect storm last year. Although Ned had some injuries this year, 2005 injuries were unprecedented. (BTW, for those of you citing Gagne as evidence of this years injuries, keep in mind he was gone for most of 2005 as well.) A philosophical difference with a manager he didn't want in the first place. A budget from the owner that was heading down, not up (like Ned's). And finally and most important, prospects who were at least 1-2 years from being even slightly ready. Finally, Ned had the benefit of Depo's experience, an owner who got out of the way a year too late, and favorable PR from the knuckleheads at the LAT. That all being said, I think Depo gambled and lost on nearly every bet. Some bad choices. Some bad luck.

One other irony: Of the 8 teams in the playoffs, Depo's fingerprints are on three of them. Ned's other team, the Giants are at home and in complete disarray. If they are even contending for a wildcard over the next three years I will be shocked.

2006-10-10 23:37:25
79.   dzzrtRatt
Plaschke is loading the dice to make himself look smart. His column is based on the premise that there is a GM out there who would hand Nomar a 2- or even a 3-year deal at $8mil/year. If that's true, it's not "an intriguing situation" as Colletti put it. It's vaya con Dios, go take their money, bub.

The "intriguing situation" will be, what do the Dodgers do once Garciaparra realizes the market for a guy who missed 1/4th of the season to injury, and who faded in the second half is a one-year deal with incentives, just like this year. If Nomar's agent comes back and says, "OK, Ned, I'll take last year's deal again this year, and I'll start in whatever position you want me to," that will be a situation, intriguing or no.

The other intriguing situation is the timing of the decision, given arbitration deadlines.

I wonder if a Clemens scenario is under consideration. Let him go, don't offer arbitration, but tell him the door is open in May if he doesn't find anything better.

In that instance, is there a way he can work out with the team in Spring Training?

2006-10-10 23:42:20
80.   LAT
53. Andrew, Green did hit 49 and 42 HRs (hate the term "bombs") for the Dodgers in 2001 and 2002, respectivly. Then messed up his shoulder. Never been the same since but he had a couple of productive years.

BTW, whoever suggested signing Shefield, if that day ever comes again, it will be my last day as a Dodger fan. He is a cancer.

2006-10-10 23:47:25
81.   LAT
*72. D4P
I think the Green money was allegedly used to sign Lowe*

I think you mean the Green money was allegedly used to sign Lowe's bar tab.

2006-10-10 23:50:47
82.   LAT
I agree we should let Nomar walk if its going to take a multi-year deal at $8M but if he shows up in a Padre uniform it's gonna sting a little.
2006-10-11 00:10:24
83.   MMSMikey
why does joe torre continue to let steinbrenner treat him like trash? i would have just left if i was torre, they dont deserve him. he has handled himself with nothing but class since taking that job.
2006-10-11 00:32:12
84.   william
I don't understand why Colletti would not offer arbitration to Garciaparra or Maddux. He's not a bad piece to have for a 8m or so they'd command on a one year contract, both would certainly be tradeable assets, and if they does sign elsewhere, the draft picks will be put to good use. Assuming, of course, draft pick compensation stays.

I can't imagine Wilson Betemit not starting at 3B next year. I also can't imagine Wilson Betemit being a good defender at 2B. With LaRoche's double labrum surgery, it certainly looks smart to have Betemit. I'd love a Betemit/Saenz platoon at 3B.

It has to be a complicated offseason if the Dodgers want to improve the offense - Martin, Loney, Kent, Betemit, Ethier, and Drew are all worthy of a starting spot, which means that the only real position to improve on with a free agent signing would be CF, and Mike Cameron is about the extent of the market there. Ned would have to trade away an incumbent starter if he wants to sign a player at another position.

I've watched some Japanese league games, and I'm really impressed with Matsuzaka, but I wouldn't be surprised if he has a team in mind that he will try to go to, like Hideki Matsui with the Yankees and Ichiro Suzuki with the Mariners. I think he's proven himself to be healthy enough that we shouldn't doubt his durability anymore.

I wonder who would blink first on a Brad Penny, Xavier Paul, and Chin-Lung Hu for Andruw Jones proposal.

2006-10-11 00:36:56
85.   william
Sorry to post again so soon, but DePodesta did acquire Brent Maybe, a career 75 OPS+ guy who was OPS+ing 76 for Arizona, with a stellar defensive rep to boot. No one could have predicted a 29 OPS+ for the Dodgers.
2006-10-11 00:41:04
86.   Andrew Shimmin
Green was fantastic in 2001 and 2002. It's too bad he was hurt, and that he regressed so much. I'm still not sure he wasn't worth keeping, last year. I didn't note it, but that post was in response to dzzrtRatt's assertion that Green and Lo Duca hadn't regressed enough to have warranted trading them.
2006-10-11 00:42:09
87.   Andrew Shimmin
Did it again, 86 was in response to 80.
2006-10-11 00:44:32
88.   GoBears
60 If Nomar is to return, he will have to accept changing position to 3B or accepting a diminished platoon job

This is one sort of post that causes problems, and I think it's merely a presentational problem. You write that Nomar "will have to accept.." What makes you think he will have to do anything? You think (and I happen to agree with you) that the Dodgers shouldn't re-sign him unless he agrees to something like a platoon, but do you have any reason to believe (especially considering his past decisions) that Colletti agrees with you (and me)? You imply as much, by writing:

I don't think he will accept that and will end up elsewhere.

But that assumes that Colletti will offer him just that sort of take-it-or-leave-it offer. He might, but I have no reason to believe that he that's any more likely than "1st base is yours for 1 more year."

It's one thing to state a preference about how things ought to happen. It's another to make a prediction about how things will happen. To assume that the two are the same is blind optimism (well, that or omnipotence).

2006-10-11 00:45:43
89.   GoBears
D'oh! 88 refers to 64, not 60.
2006-10-11 00:46:38
90.   GoBears
65 Does it qualify as "irony" that Plaschke routinely hammered the previous GM for not keeping "fan favorites," and is now recommending that Ned not do so?

No, that qualifies as hypocrisy.

2006-10-11 00:51:59
91.   Robert Daeley
90 Hypocrisy? Really? Is there some serious ethical standard being violated here?
2006-10-11 00:55:44
92.   GoBears
84. It looked to me this year as thought Little was reluctant to use Saenz as anything but a late-inning pinch hitter. He started a few games, but not nearly as many as he could have (against LHP). Methinks his platoon days are in the past, unless injuries force him into the lineup, as in 2005.

Little seemed much more interested in moving Kent to first when Nomar was out, and plugging in a scrub middle IFer at 2nd.

2006-10-11 01:00:16
93.   GoBears
91. To praise one's object of affection for thinking about doing the same thing that caused one to condemn one's whipping boy is hypocritical, at least in my mind. I guess it would only be ironic if Plaschke didn't realize that that was what he was doing. Which is, I suppose, possible.
2006-10-11 05:05:29
94.   Vishal
[43] check out the clip of matsuzaka pitching against cuba in the WBC. the 2nd strikeout pitch, gyroball or not, is ridiculously filthy. it's almost unfair. :)

2006-10-11 05:07:15
95.   Vishal
oops, 94 was supposed to be re: 42
2006-10-11 06:14:32
96.   Sam DC
MMSMikey -- Bronx Banter discusses just that question this morning.

Something in the water last night on the cross-referencing.

2006-10-11 07:51:31
97.   Benaiah
If the Dodgers chose to let Maddux, Lugo and Nomar go they might get a ton of draft picks for them. That said, I would be reluctant to offer Maddux arbitration since he has accepted it in the past to the detriment of the team. However, the Dodgers could offer Maddux arbitration of ~5-6 million (70% of th 8 million he is making this year) and perhaps he wouldn't take that.

I know there is talk of arm abuse with Matsuzaka, but I think he is the real deal and I would much rather have him than Zito or Schmidt. Even if his arm has some miles on it, it is better to sign the 25 year old power pitcher than the 28 year old with a good curve or the 33 year old with nagging injuries IMHO.

2006-10-11 08:15:35
98.   Jon Weisman
97 - You don't offer x amount of dollars of arbitration. You offer to go to arbitration. Then if the player accepts, and you can't work out a contract on your own, you each submit figures to the arbitrator and make your cases. If you submit an unreasonably (to the arbitrator) low figure, you're just about guaranteed to end up paying the high figure.
2006-10-11 08:18:06
99.   Bumsrap
I think the Dodgers were leveraging the heart of Cora, Roberts, and LoDuca into wins. Remove the heart as well as the pitch caller and you proceed to 71 wins.

With that same heart and continued hitting from Beltre and the Dodgers continue to win 85 plus games. Replace Beltre with an injury prone player like Drew and call it bad luck is what 71 win seasons are all about.

Garciapara, Kent, and Drew as the core or numbers 3, 4, and 5 hitters in a lineup is a bigger gamble than is starting Loney, Ethier, and Kemp and it costs more.

Third base is the best place for the Dodgers to add a proven power bat that tends to stay healthy and can contribute to the education of young players. The latter leaves out Aramis but doew include a young Zimmerman and I think AROD as well.

I will trade Penny for your thoughts.

2006-10-11 08:25:14
100.   Benaiah
98 - I understand, however, it is certainly possible to tell Maddux that you are going to offer him 5-6 million in arbitration before he accepts. I don't think 5-6 million dollars is unreasonably low for a pitcher with a 4+ ERA for each of the past 3 years. Meanwhile, he is probably going to come back with a number around 8 million, which could be seen as fairly high considering his age and performance. My point is not to lowball him in arbitration, but rather to tell him up front what you want to pay him. At 5-6 million he is probably worth the risk as he basically never gets injured, but if he wants more I would be perfectly happy to see him play somewhere else and get a couple of draft picks for him.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2006-10-11 08:32:56
101.   LAT
99. The latter leaves out Aramis but doew include a young Zimmerman and I think AROD as well.

I am pretty sure the Nats would not trade Zimmerman and expect to see announcement of a long term contract this off season.

(I think I just violated Rumor Rule 4, above.)

2006-10-11 08:46:31
102.   Benaiah
99 - It is nigh on to impossible to get teams to trade young, cheap, productive players. What could you offer that is worth a David Wright at 374K, or a Liriano and Zimmerman at 327K? The only way to swing it would be to trade your own young cheap talent (goodbye Martin and Billingsley).
2006-10-11 08:55:53
103.   Bluebleeder87
The only way to swing it would be to trade your own young cheap talent (goodbye Martin and Billingsley).

don't joke around that way bro. ;o)

2006-10-11 08:58:53
104.   Sam DC

"SHORT HOP: Professional scout Bill Singer, a former major league right-hander, left the [Diamondbacks'] organization to join ex-D-Back scouting director Mike Rizzo's staff in Washington."

I hope they make sure he eats his carbs!

2006-10-11 09:06:58
105.   Jon Weisman
100 - Actually, I think your $5-6 million figure pretty much is too low. Look at what Jeff Weaver got after last season, for example - and Weaver is no Greg Maddux.
2006-10-11 09:12:37
106.   underdog
AAAArrrrgh, take two: I just saw the note on that the team will likely resign all its coaches - including Rich Donnelly. Okay, I know he's a swell guy, and I know a team has many other problems to worry about before it worries about 3rd base coach, but I swear that guy scares me over there.
2006-10-11 09:13:41
107.   mike20
Yesterday night on the radio, I heard a guy say, "We (The Padres) need to do three things: Trade for or sign a power-hitting third baseman, possibly Adrian Beltre. Pick up a front of the rotation guy, probably Barry Zito. And finally, if we (The Padres) aren't going to resign Dave Roberts, we should sign a prototypical (!) leadoff hitter like Alfonso Soriano."

So to sum up, Beltre, Zito and Soriano and The Pads will have no problems.

I guess it's just that easy. In a similar vein I think the Dodgers should trade for Ryan Howard, Johan Santana and A-Rod.

2006-10-11 09:18:05
108.   3upn3down
ESPN's Insider hot stove is reporting that Jon does not like off season baseball rumors.

I get what you're saying, and nothing burns me more than ridiculing GM's for rumored deals, but ignoring the hot stove is to a baseball fan, what following High School Football recruiting rumors are to SEC fans. Peas and Carrots.

What else is there to do in the winter while waiting for the actual deals to pop up as you say, "out of the blue!"

The hot stove is where dreamers can dream about how their team could look next year.

2006-10-11 09:18:34
109.   50 years a Dodger Fan
104 Sam, I hope there are no Asians associated with the Nats.
2006-10-11 09:19:13
110.   underdog
I think the Dodgers really should sign Barry Zito, especially since it appears he'd fit right in with the team's other starters when it comes to pitching in the playoffs. (I keeeed, I keeeeed.)

Yeah, the Padres will just have to draw another 2 million in attendance and they'll go right after those guys.

Can you imagine Beltre's struggles in PetCo?

2006-10-11 09:19:22
111.   Bumsrap
The Nats need pitching. They are pretty well set at everything but pitching but losing Soriano will hurt.

Patterson is the only sure thing in their rotation and he may still be injured.

To give the Nats perhaps equal to 80% of Zimmerman at third, I would suggest Betemit and/or LaRoche and to make up for that loss of offense, I would add Penny, Justin Orunduff, and Josh Wall.

They were paying Soriano $10M last year and so they have to replace an outfielder and have $$ to do it. Betemit, Drew, and $9M for Zimerman to get conversation started.

2006-10-11 09:25:36
112.   blue22
111 - Bowden would have to be seriously vindictive to make that trade on his way out the door (he's getting canned, isn't he?).

Nothing says "untouchable" like Ryan Zimmerman in a Nats uniform.

2006-10-11 09:26:53
113.   Jon Weisman
108 - LOL

I'm not telling you not to have fun with the Hot Stove. Have fun! I'm just saying that from my experience here, people take the rumors way too seriously, discussion gets heated, and the fun goes away. And that's what I'd like to avoid.

2006-10-11 09:35:33
114.   gibsonhobbs88
88 - Maybe I should preface all my comments with IMO, That is all my comments were. I do not have any psychic ability nor can I read anybody's mind. I was just offering my opinion as to what Nomar would be likely to do given a hypothetical scenario. As Dennis Miller used to say on his HBO show after one of his rants "That's just my opinion, I could be wrong."
2006-10-11 09:39:17
115.   LAT
111. Betemit, Drew, and $9M for Zimerman to get conversation started.

They only way the Nats would part with Zimmerman is if the deal included Bills (and that better not happen. I think Bills is going to be money next season.)

2006-10-11 09:42:55
116.   LAT
Off topic: but did anyone see that Rod Bersen, the Fox reporter and ex-police officer, pulled a Mark Foley on a cruise ship. Creepy stuff.

2006-10-11 09:58:10
117.   still bevens
106 I think Donnely's enthusiam for the green light might be tempered by his mistakes in the playoffs. I think the biggest problem with the coaching staff is Honeycutt. Wouldnt you think Penny's struggles with getting batters out and our starters inability to go longer than 5.5 innings a game might have some correlation to the pitching coach? I guess you only remember negative things, but the only contribution I recall regarding Honeycutt was the cutter he taught D-Lowe that got him all confused in May.
2006-10-11 10:17:03
118.   Snowdog
117 - How much was Donnelly's fault? Here comes Kent, with JD right behind him. Give Kent the stop sign, and you've got Kent and JD at 3b. So you give him the green light, and then JD steams around, head down. Yes, Donnelly could have tackled him, I suppose, but the fault lies with Kent and Drew for having no idea how the ball played off the wall right into Green's glove.

And recall the same situation in San Fran - the playoff clinching game, Kent admittedly blew thought a Donnelly stop sign "he said whoa, I said go" - yes, he was safe at the plate, but it was very close (though an excellent slide)

2006-10-11 10:28:45
119.   regfairfield
118 There was a two or three second gap between Kent and Drew. I don't know why there's not enough time to send Kent, then stop Drew. If Drew misses the sign, then you yell "Stop!"

There's a case for Donnelly if he tried to stop Drew and he blew through it, but he didn't do anything.

2006-10-11 10:30:29
120.   still bevens
Im not talking exclusively about the playoffs. There were several times during the season where Donnely had guys going home when they shouldnt have. I like him tho. My beef is with Honeycutt. hehe
2006-10-11 10:34:35
121.   Jon Weisman
118 - It's Donnelly's fault, almost completely, that there were two outs in the play instead of just one.
2006-10-11 10:34:44
122.   Rocc
I've been a long-time observer here, pretty much since the first Rays/Dodgers Trade(Old crap for new crap, basically) and I'm wondering what Dodger fans think of the players received from the Rays in comparison to the prospects/players sent to the Rays.

I'm a writer for DRays Bay and I'm wondering what Dodger fans think of the deals and the prospects that we got from you guys.

I'm a huge fan of Sergio Pedroza and I love the potential that Guzman still has(just needs to be shaken out of him), happy with Dioneer after suffering through Hall for so long and I'm not impressed with Tiffany/E-Jax/Seo but I never liked Baez/Carter/Hendrickson.

I emailed Joe a few days ago and he said that many of the commentors here would give a better report than anyone about the players/prospects that we received from the Dodgers.

2006-10-11 10:36:34
123.   Rocc
Jon*, damn typing too fast
2006-10-11 10:45:33
124.   sanchez101
Thanks for this post, Jon, I get the feeling that you'll need to link to this post multiple times this summer. There will probably by dozens of "rumors" involving young dodgers being traded for crappy veterans, this site could get real tedious if people here take them all seriously.
2006-10-11 10:50:13
125.   Sam DC
113 perfectly expresses the point -- you should add that summary to the front page. It can be a lot of fun to talk over possible deals, made up deals, or fantasy deals -- even stuff as supremely unlikely as the Nationals trading Ryan Zimmerman! -- but what happens so often is crazy rumour A gets floated and DT commenter B just rips into Colletti for being such an idiot. And I'm not really a big fan of Colletti, but such ripping is totally unfun.
2006-10-11 10:52:56
126.   Jon Weisman
125 - Done.
2006-10-11 10:53:59
127.   Andrew Shimmin
122- Even the one good player we got out of you died on us; Lugo hatred ran pretty strong here, during this last month. Hendrickson had games where he looked legitimately not awful, but on the whole he stank. The best performance out of any of your players has to have been Toby Hall's (it would have been Beimel, but that's a sore subject, this week). Small sample size, since he wasn't ever allowed to play, but Hall was very nearly useful. Baez got shipped out (along with Willy Aybar) for Betemit, so, we'll see how that goes; you're off the hook, anyway.

On the whole, I think most of us would just as soon have Colletti declared legally incompetent, and the trades reversed. I would, anyway. I've started the paper work.

2006-10-11 10:58:35
128.   Andrew Shimmin
On the whole, I think I may have used that construction at least once too often. And I should be more careful about speaking for the people of DT. The opinions expressed in 127 are my own. You can tell they're mine because they're barely literate. That's just how I roll.
2006-10-11 11:00:55
129.   Rocc
First off, Thanks Andrew.

Second, what are Dodger fans thoughts on Pedroza, Guzman and Ruggiano?

Hall's legacy in TB, as of late, has been tarnished by a quote from last week when he basically bashed the organization. He basically acted like he was one of the best players when he was with us and thought he didn't deserve to be traded, but happy he was. I hope you guys enjoy Tubby more than we did, but when the deadline neared for you guys...I remember that he had a few stupid blurbs that came out of his mouth.

2006-10-11 11:03:00
130.   Snowdog
121 - I've got to put a fair blame on Kent and Drew - yes, Donnelly could have (and may have) yelled "stop" at JD Drew, but JD was so close to Kent, it would have been impossible to know the "go" sign was only for Kent. Again, both Kent and JD thought the ball was rattling around in the corner.

Remember, JD actually stopped mid-way between home and 3B, so he was a lot closer to Kent than it looked from the home plate camera (showing Kent, then JD crashing into LoDuca - LoDuca giving that look of "Lookie what I found here")

Statistically, I'd give Kent 35% of blame, JD 50% (keep your head up, kid), and Donnelly 15%.

2006-10-11 11:03:09
131.   D4P
He basically acted like he was one of the best players when he was with us

He seemed to arrive in LA with that attitude intact. He made a stink about not getting to start, but I think he had a meeting with management and was not heard from since. Nor did he ever get much playing time.

2006-10-11 11:03:21
132.   Rocc
I fully understand that those were just your opinions, but one person's thoughts(thus far) are better than none.
2006-10-11 11:07:13
133.   natepurcell

Pedroza is a player that does all the secondary things well but there is one issue with him and that issue will prevent him from being a good mlb player.

its the contact rate. The strikesout he compiled in low A columbus at his age, with his big college baseball program pedigree is a huge sign that he is significantly flawed.

Of course people will look at his ISO's, his walk rate and his homeruns and see a player who will become a good mlb player but I just dont see it with Pedroza. Striking out that much at the lower levels signifies that his progress is going to be severely halted when he gets to AA and beyond. Why do you think it took the Dodgers so long to promote him to A+ and utlimately trade him? I'm rooting for Pedroza though. Maybe in a perfect world he could become a left handed Jonny Gomes minus the good basestealing instincts.

2006-10-11 11:07:24
134.   Rocc
D4P, I'm sure that if you would've kept Alomar on the roster....Toby would still be on the bottom of the depth chat.

Toby had a knack for GIDPs, killing Carl Crawford's triple total(if Hall was on base) and being an average catcher defensively with light-switch power(differed from none-to-decent).

Is anyone else surprised that Hall was once the International League MVP?

2006-10-11 11:07:51
135.   LAT
but Hall was very nearly useful.

Perfectly said.

The interesting part is whether Hendrickson can sustain his success as a reliever. I am skeptical but I have to acknowledge he did a nice job down the strech (even if I was holding my breath the whole time).

2006-10-11 11:09:07
136.   Benaiah
I think Pedroza has tons of potential, but I don't know if he will stick at C, so he might end up as a 1B/DH or something.

Ruggiano had a great year last year, but he is old enough that he is probably a 4OF and not an everyday player. Considering how stocked you guys are on outfielders I doubt he will see a lot of playing time.

Guzman... oh Guzman. His power is prestigious and he has all the potential in the world. He could realistically play corner outfield or infield and his upside is something like Juan Gone. On the other hand, he seems to have developed a bad attitude after not making the team after a great Spring Training and it has been commented on that he seems to not be trying in the field. However, he is young and being around character guys like Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes can only help him (I kid!). I wish more than anything that we hadn't traded him for Lugo, because if he ever figures it all out then that is the one that Colletti will be burned in effigy for.

2006-10-11 11:10:22
137.   Andrew Shimmin
129- He wasn't well liked, I didn't take it, because he ran off his mouth to our papers, too, about how he didn't want to be a backup, and wanted to be traded somewhere he could start (where that might be no one seemed to know). He just wasn't as bad as all the rest.

There's one guy here, JoeyP, who's head over heals in love with IsoPedroza, but I think he's the only one. Guzman was the most bitter pill we were asked to swallow, since before this season there were projections that he'd be the next Juan Gonzalez, then two months in he was declared a headcase and shunted out the door. I'm pulling for him, and still haven't heard anything that made me believe the name calling was well founded. Ruggiano looked like another reserve OF. I don't remember anyone who was too disappointed about his leaving.

A lot of us are still pulling for Jackson to turn it around. He was very exciting at 19. Here's hoping he does something great for you.

2006-10-11 11:12:37
138.   natepurcell
I still like Jackson, tiffany seems to be victim of TINSTAPP. Guzman is someone who hasnt progressed since his breakout year in 2004. Its like he hit his peak at age 19 and has plateaued since then. Although he did show a vast improvement in his contact rate last year which is a very encouraging sign.
2006-10-11 11:12:42
139.   D4P
killing Carl Crawford's triple total(if Hall was on base)

There's something interesting I haven't thought much about. Having a slow runner getting on base in front of you may very well turn some of your triples into doubles, and doubles into singles. Has anyone ever looked into this issue...?

2006-10-11 11:13:58
140.   natepurcell

its uncommon enough that its insignificant.

2006-10-11 11:14:19
141.   Rocc
Nate, as of late, Gomes' baserunning skills aren't that great anymore. Pretty much due to his added weight(he gained 15-20 lbs from 2005 to 2006) and his bum shoulder that is more than likely going to move him from RF to 1B.

I agree, for the most part, that Pedroza's strikeouts may be his downfall at higher levels. So here's hoping that Serge, when moved to Montgomery this upcoming season, he keeps the 100 walk potential and decreases the K totals.

Also, does anyone know if he was used as a catcher in the Dodger Organization. He, along with a few of our other prospects, got looks behind the plate during instructs and he got a few innings during a game as a catcher. He was used mainly as a bullpen pitcher on his off-days, so it probably doesn't really mean anything.

2006-10-11 11:16:13
142.   natepurcell

before pedroza was traded, there was a blurb saying that logan white wanted pedroza to get a look at catching during september instrux. If he could catch (decently), maybe a Mike Napoli type player isnt out of the question.

2006-10-11 11:16:19
143.   sanchez101
136. Is TB trying to move him to C? Is he that bad in the OF or is it becuase they'll have no room for him in the OF?

Guzman's best position is 3rd, he doesn't get on base enough to produce the kind of offense you want from a 1B, or the corner OF positions either. Guzman is a really bad fit for the DRays, they don't need him at any of the positions he might be able to play. Also, TB seems to have a blind spot when it comes to developing plate discipline; Guzman's primary weakness. Guzman is farther from the majors than we though a year ago.

2006-10-11 11:16:28
144.   50 years a Dodger Fan
136 Why just effigy?
2006-10-11 11:16:54
145.   natepurcell
to add, at CSUF, he came into the program as a catcher but he was moved to OF later on.
2006-10-11 11:18:07
146.   sanchez101
Hey nate, have you heard anything regarding Morris' surgery? Also, what the deal with DeWitt's position, BA has him listed as 3B/2B and he played a lot of 3B in AA?
2006-10-11 11:19:51
147.   natepurcell

he already has the surgery, and they said hes out for 2007 which is okay to me. We dont need to rush him.

In regards to Dewitt, I don't know. I think he will continue to get looks at 2b and 3b but if his bat doesn't progress then it really doesnt matter where he plays because hes not going to play for us.

2006-10-11 11:21:43
148.   GoBears
114 gibsonhobbs88
88 - Maybe I should preface all my comments with IMO, That is all my comments were.

That would certainly help (all of us, not just gibsonhobbs88) to avoid the false air of inside information. But there's still the distinction between preferences and predictions. One's preferences are one's own. No one can argue with them. There's no accounting for taste, and there's no disputing tastes.

Predictions about what will happen (e.g., I think Nomar will turn down a platoon offer, and go elsewhere) are not preferences or tastes. Rather, they are claims about facts - in this case future facts. A prediction can't be an opinion. It's a claim about what will happen, not what one would like to happen.

So, to get back to the point in question, I completely accept gh88's correction that he would prefer that the Dodgers not sign Nomar unless Nomar agrees to that sort of reduced role. That's his opinion, and I respect it. But his statement that Nomar won't accept such an offer, and hence be gone, is not an opinion. It's a prediction, a guess, a speculation.

Sorry. I really started my nitpicking to find out if gh88 really did have some information I didn't have - to separate his statement about his preferences from his prediction about what would happen. But, I was just teaching philosophy of science last week, and I went on autopilot. Blame Lakatos.

2006-10-11 11:22:07
149.   Sushirabbit
To pile on a bit on Hall, I think even Hendrickson looked better with Martin behind the plate, but were getting into really small sample size territory.
2006-10-11 11:23:51
150.   Rocc
I've got to say that, so far, you guys are some of the most gracious fans(in regards to visiting teams' fans commenting) and that this is probably THE BEST DODGERS BLOG ON THE NET. Sorry for the caps, but I figured it was the best way to get my point across.

D4P & Nate, the triples thing was more of a problem that the Rays had in 2005(when we had Crawford hitting leadoff and Lou pretty much had Hall as an everyday player) but not so much in 2006 when Maddon moved Crawford down from the leadoff spot early on, thus it was made obvious to baseball's "know-it-alls"(basically the dumb baseball writers) that Carl Crawford is not the prototypical leadoff hitter and shouldn't be moved to CF.

So, as Rays fans, we shouldn't give up on Guzman and E-Jax turning it around? Many Rays fans have already soured on E-Jax, seeing as he is usually unstable in the first 10 pitches and usually has given up a few big hits before he's in his "strikeout" groove.

Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2006-10-11 11:24:46
151.   Sushirabbit
148 ...just so long as you don't go referencing the Dancing Wu Li Masters!
2006-10-11 11:26:32
152.   bhsportsguy
122 First off, I believe that a lot of people like the idea of prospects more than the reality of major league performance. With prospects, you have the gaudy numbers and the excitement of maybe the next A-Rod or Clemens. By the time a guy has played a few years, you have a pretty good idea of what you get and mostly its not to exciting.

That said, the Rays did well for themselves on the potential scale when they acquired Jackson, Tiffany, Navarro, Guzman, Pedroza and Justin Ruggiano. Certainly you would have to think that one of these guys will pan out but they will face the following roster decisions.

40 man roster -
Edwin Jackson (out of options)
Chuck Tiffany (must protect from Rule V)
Joel Guzman (2 options left)
Justin Ruggiano (must protect from Rule V)
Dionner Navarro (1 option left)

Sergio Pedroza has one year left before he has to be protected. Now, the Rays may decide to leave off both Tiffany and Ruggiano because it is doubtful any team would claim them at the MLB portion of the draft and as long as they are protected at the minor league level, they should be able to continue their development or rehab for the Rays.

Part of the issue I think was that a lot of these had those roster issues to consider (which is what happens when you have a lot of successful drafts) and they were choices that were made rightly and wrongly about their future with the Dodgers.

Jackson may become a very good MR or even better reliever, Navarro is going to play everyday at a cheap price for the next couple of years, Seo is Seo which could be so so (don't you love the puns), Pedroza and Ruggiano are college outfielders who have not shown that they compete beyond their level of competition. So the real prize may be Joel Guzman. I think the Rays need to find him a position and leave him there. But he has holes in his swing and while he equates himself well at whatever level he plays, he hasn't been real impressive since his stay at VB. But I think time is on the Rays side so let him play a full year in AAA and see what develops, its doubtful it will be enough to go past Upton, Young or Longoria but he could be used as a piece to acquire more pitching down the road.

2006-10-11 11:35:41
153.   Rocc
143. For the Rays, we're pretty deep now in every position except for Catcher right now. However with Wieters being almost even with Price, in regards to "closeness to the majors", the depth problem could be disregarded after the draft. The Rays have an annoyingly high amount of depth in the OF, so I'd hope that we could exchange a player like Dukes to a system like yours for pitching(which you can't get enough of).

As for Guzman, we're just wanting a bit of an upgrade than we had with Travis Lee at 1B. So basically his 2006 AAA numbers would give him what we want production-wise from a 1B(until we get something better). As I recall, we had Guzman at 1B, 3B and LF in AAA and we're in no rush to bring him up.

145. Thanks about the info regarding Pedroza during his CSF days. Makes a bit more sense on why he was used as a catcher during Instructs.

146 & 147. I'm sorry about the TJ thing for Morris, but a few Rays fans who were scouting Morris at Motlow said that Morris' dad(who was also his coach) had every Motlow pitcher throwing across their body and could've caused most of the tearing. It was a pretty upsetting day to Rays fans when the Draft-and-follow deadline day had passed and Morris went unsigned for no reason. Most Rays fans thought it could've been due to the asking price then, with his hand injury(non-pitching arm) and undisclosed scouting being possible secondary reasons.

2006-10-11 11:35:43
154.   bhsportsguy
To move this towards a Dodger prospect, I thought I read somewhere that Russ Mitchell was going to move to catching at the instructional league this year.

Having started to look at the organization's minor leaguers ala Jon's in depth piece he did in September 2005, our catching depth is woeful, awful or just plain bad.

2006-10-11 11:37:05
155.   bhsportsguy
147 Blake is playing SS in Maui.
2006-10-11 11:37:13
156.   GoBears
For some reason, the way I've decided to think about the Devil-Ray follies is that the Dodgers gave up Guzman and Navarro and Aybar for Wilson Betemit (via Baez) and hopefully Lugo-related draft picks. The rest is just filler.

So the players that I predict won't matter one way or the other (beyond the effects they had in 2006) are: Carter, Hall, Hendrickson, Jackson (sadly), Tiffany, Pedroza, and Ruggiano. Did I miss anyone?

That said, almost everything I know about prospects I learn by reading comments here, so consider my prediction with a handful of salt.

2006-10-11 11:41:10
157.   Rocc
156. The weird thing about the entire Lugo compensation pick thing, is that he's said lately that he hasn't completely ruled out returning to TB this offseason and thus negating possible 1st round picks that would normally be received(due to us having the #1 pick in the draft).

Hey, your opinion is just as good as mine here.

2006-10-11 11:42:53
158.   bhsportsguy
157 But we would still receive a 1st round supplemental and the first pick in the second round.
2006-10-11 11:44:01
159.   D4P
he's said lately that he hasn't completely ruled out returning to TB

Setting up a Kemp for Lugo deal at the 2007 trade deadline

2006-10-11 11:44:04
160.   Rocc
153. Many Rays fans didn't see us trading Lugo to the Dodgers, let alone for zero pitching prospects. We were aiming for SP prospects in the G. Miller/J. Orenduff range, so we were taken for a loop when we received a 1B/SS/3B/LF in Guzman and a future 4OF in Pedroza.
2006-10-11 11:46:25
161.   Sam DC
159 -- Well played.
2006-10-11 11:47:47
162.   Rocc
158. Thats very true, bhsportsguy, don't really want to see the Rays lose the 2nd round pick(where we've got plenty of decent prospects, as of late).

159. With the way Kemp was hitting the ball in Vegas near the end of the year, I don't see Kemp going anywhere(with J.D. Drew's peanut brittle bones taken into consideration). Also, the likliehood that we'd ask for a MLB-ready OF is very small.

2006-10-11 11:51:28
163.   bhsportsguy
162 How do fans feel about Dukes and Upton, do they want them in a Ray uniform and what happens to all the outfielders?
2006-10-11 12:02:38
164.   Rocc
163. For the most part, it's 50/50 with Rays fans in regards to Dukes. Most of us don't want him ever to put on a Devil Rays jersey during the Regular Season, let alone in Spring Training. Most think of him as Milton Bradley 2.0, with more power and speed, but not nearly as great fielding skills(however, still in the "5 tool" range).

As for Upton, most of the less sensible Rays fans(better way of saying unknowing/dumb) think that we should trade Rocco and move Upton to CF where most THINK he'd put up better numbers than Baldelli. Yet, the more knowledgable fans believe that a full season in the majors at 3B is what he needs to turn it around(both defensively and offensively, where he was surprisingly bad).

I, myself, would like to see the Rays trade Dukes for a good pitching prospect(near the Elbert range, to put things into perspective to Dodger fans but not to imply that the Dodgers/Rays should do this trade) and should start considering trading Upton to Florida or Arizona for pitching. I don't care where Dukes goes, myself, but I honestly wouldn't wish Upton's lack of defense on a playoff-contender.

Another player that the Rays should seek offers for is Cantu, whose glove is nearly inexistant(ranks as the worst 2B, fielding-wise, in the majors) and his 2005 seems to be flukish...even when his 2006 season looked horrible mainly due to time missed from injuries. Add into the fact that Longoria may be moved to 2B, where he'd instantly rank as a highly regarded hitter and defender.

Basically, we will eventually need to start trading some of our depth in the minors(when we settle on our core team) for pitching.

2006-10-11 12:05:48
165.   Benaiah
164 - I don't think you could get a player in the Elbert range for Dukes. His rep is in the Artest range and he hasn't proven anything in the show. I am not saying you cant get someone for him, but Elbert is a top 5 or 10 pitching prospect and I can't see anyone trading a top 10 arm for a heaping spoonful of crazy.
2006-10-11 12:07:16
166.   Andrew Shimmin
157- Not for nothing, and you seem like a nice guy, but: if you people rob us of our Lugo picks, I can't guarantee your safety. There's only so much we can be expected to tolerate. So, keep your grubby mitts off the Red Sox' new SS. Or, wait, who has the 16th pick this year? Whoever it is, that's where Lugo goes. Arb-declining Nomar goes to 17. And so on. . .
2006-10-11 12:13:31
167.   Benaiah
The Reds have the 16th pick... I could actually see that happening.
2006-10-11 12:13:37
168.   bhsportsguy
164 Isn't Longoria the next 3B?
2006-10-11 12:14:04
169.   Benaiah
Er the Rangers that is. And I can't see that happening.
2006-10-11 12:14:19
170.   StolenMonkey86
If I set the lineup, this is how it looks now:
1) Furcal
2) Martin
3) Drew
4) help
5) Ethier
6) Kent
7) Loney
8) Betemit
The Dodgers haven't had a real cleanup hitter all year. If they go with a corner outfielder to fill the gap, that preserves this lineup, but it does force a trade when Matt Kemp is ready, possibly of Matt Kemp.

Here's what an A-Rod trade does:

I'll speculate that the Yankees pull the trigger on an A-Rod deal not just because the guy could use a change of scenery, but because a lot of teams could use him and the price just might be right. And that's what I'd prefer. Not only that, but after Laroche is ready, A-Rod could go back to the middle infield, or Laroche might play 2nd if there are concerns about his shoulder.

The cost in terms of personnel from a trade, though, might be enough that the free agent route is the way to go. Besides, if Drew can stay healthy two years in a row, his value will be through the roof.

2006-10-11 12:17:36
171.   Rocc
165. I agree, but I think most Rays fans do with Dukes what most Mets fans do with all their prospects and that is we expect a heaping return for him or will whine when we don't. I'd love if the Rays called St Louis and asked for Wainwright and Johnson or Atlanta asking for James in return for Dukes. Still probably asking too much for that nutball, but eh.

166. Lol, I apologize. I've never been a huge fan of Lugo(pourous fielding skills, dumb baserunning and "meh" hitting[except for this year...coughcoughFLUKEcough]) and I liked Rocco when he was inserted as the leadoff hitter. Zobrist wasn't hitting near his minor league averages, but with him going to Arizona this offseason, I can see him becoming a stop-gap SS until Brignac or Upton(GULP!) step up to take the spot.

I hope, for your guys' sake, that you do in fact get picks from Boston and Colletti doesn't think about resigning Lugo.

2006-10-11 12:21:03
172.   Benaiah
Would Betemit really be viewed as a replacement for Arod in the Bronx? I assume the yanks are looking for a slugger of some sort. Perhaps Laroche himself would be involved in the deal. I would LOVE to get arod, but the price has got to include either Elbert or Billz, Kemp, Ethier or Loney and probably one other pitcher (Penny, Broxton). Best case scenario would be something like Penny, Betemit and Ethier, but I bet the reality would be something more like Penny, Elbert and Laroche.
2006-10-11 12:28:40
173.   Rocc
168. Going into the draft, most scouts believed that Longoria's overall package profiling better if eventually moved to 2B, but noone seen the 21 HRs in his debut season coming from those reports. Friedman, after signing Longoria, said that the Rays were strongly considering moving him to 2B before he makes it to the Majors....but that's really up in the air when he made his suprising debut.
2006-10-11 12:32:25
174.   Jon Weisman
Rocc - I wasn't lying when I said the commenters here would help you out, was I?
2006-10-11 12:33:26
175.   Xeifrank
121. Kent should've been half-way. Therefore his being out at home was "his own" fault. Had Kent made the right choice from the "get go" then Donnelly would not have been put in the situation of having two runners at third base (which is what would've happened had he given Kent the stop sign). Donnelly would've then (obviously) held Drew at 3rd had Kent scored easily like he should've. No harm done. Kent was at fault on the play... Donnelly just made the bad situation worse. In football they would've thrown the flag for "piling on".
vr, Xei
2006-10-11 12:36:01
176.   bhsportsguy
BTW - Lucas May is going the catching route in the Arizona Instructional League.
2006-10-11 12:44:04
177.   Rocc
174. Jon, I really appreciate it dude. This article, due to the rules itself, is going to be linked and quote(if you don't mind) on my blog.

You guys have been a ton of help, I need to get my workout done and do a few errands. However, if anyone else wants to ask any questions about Rays prospects that have been in Colletti's sights or are believed to be expendable, feel free.

Thanks alot everybody, I'll be coming back to here alot(knowing that there's some weird sacred bond between the Rays GM and Dodgers GM)

2006-10-11 12:56:20
178.   Benaiah
A small plane crashed into a NYC building. But the authorities are saying it was an accident. Talk about freaky symbollic to look at though.
2006-10-11 12:57:20
179.   JoeyP
Pedroza and Ruggiano are college outfielders who have not shown that they compete beyond their level of competition

Ruggiano has played well at every level he's been at.

Its a little too early to say he cant compete at higher levels.

2006-10-11 12:59:17
180.   Linkmeister
Rocc, it might be fun to see a link to your site (1st rule of blog promotion has been violated! Ding Ding!), particularly after you write up your findings from this foray into the territory.

Separate topic: If anyone had told me in May that Jeff Weaver was gonna start the 1st game of a playoff game this year, I would have suspected him/her of illegal drug ingestion.

2006-10-11 13:01:25
181.   bhsportsguy
179 He has played well but he is older than others at his level, that is all I am saying.

As a comparison, Ethier was the Texas League player of the year in 2005 and was graded as a top prospect while Ruggiano has played well but not as compared to others in the same league.

2006-10-11 13:03:36
182.   natepurcell
in regards to the 2007 draft and the #1 pick, drays have to pick price. it would be a shame not too. Weiters is not going to stay at catcher and will just add the glut of of/1b in the drays system (even though hes going to mash like alex gordon).
2006-10-11 13:15:21
183.   Sushirabbit
In defense of Kent, that play with Drew was the time to be aggresive on the bases, the problem was that Kent didn't have an angle to see that the ball was not going to get caught (and so he had to wait closer to 2nd) and then also couldn't see the karom off the wall (which meant he should have stopped at 3rd). Based on the play Donnely should/could have held Kent there. Kent is too slow.

Also, Kent's RBI to AB ratio was actually better this year than the past two, so when he was in the lineup I'd say he was pretty good. And I'm willing to chalk the oblique to age, but getting beaned in the head can happen to anyone.

2006-10-11 13:19:55
184.   50 years a Dodger Fan
171 He was dumb enough to take him in the trade last year, wasn't he?
2006-10-11 13:27:28
185.   sanchez101
My problem with Kent revolves around his defense. LA was 20th in baseball in Defensive Efficiency. Considering Lowe pitches here, and Maddux will likely be back, thats upwards of 450 innings next year from pitchers that rely very, very heavily on their defense to make plays. Furcal is good, and Betemit is good enough. But I can't believe the defensive stats this year that say Kent is a good defender, he can barely move. It'd be nice to move him to 1st, but who'd play 2nd?

I wouldn't mind bringing Lugo back, if the price is reasonalbe. His defense is good and his offense is a plus for a middle infielder. I think he's worth upwards of $8-9 million per year. Im fine leaving Loney in AAA for another season if a suitable trade doesn't happen.

2006-10-11 13:34:49
186.   das411
185 - $8mil for Lugo seems to be where he is starting from though, Rocc can help me here but iirc that was the deal he turned down from the Rays right before they traded him.

Does anybody else really really really want to see Tampa Bay make a run at Sheffield?

2006-10-11 13:35:34
187.   Benaiah
Jon, it took me awhile to get back to you but I wanted to respond on the Weaver vs Maddux point. I agree that Weaver is no Maddux, but it seems that his value was getting a pitcher who should have been signed for several years for only one. Clearly Maddux isn't looking for a three year deal, so there is no need to overpay him to make him settle for one year. I still think 8 million is a pretty steep price for a pitcher who has more in common with Brett Tomko than GREG MADDUX lately.
2006-10-11 13:37:09
188.   Xeifrank
185. Kent at 1B? I thought that was the whole reason you let Nomar go, so Loney could play 1B. Perhaps Kent could play 1B against LHP and you put your backup middle infielder at 2B when Kent is platooning at 1B. I think Kent is Ok at 2B for one more year. vr, Xei
2006-10-11 13:47:20
189.   Uncle Miltie
The plane that crashed into the building was registered to Cory Lidle
2006-10-11 13:49:09
190.   DodgerHobbit
Cory Lidle is reportedly the registered owner of the plane that crahed into the n.y. city apartment building...nobody is saying whether he was flying the plane.
2006-10-11 13:49:35
191.   DodgerHobbit
2006-10-11 13:52:15
192.   Andrew Shimmin
190- ESPN says he was the pilot. Jeez.
2006-10-11 13:53:33
193.   Uncle Miltie
Lidle was on the plane. RIP
2006-10-11 13:54:29
194.   DodgerHobbit
192 what a difference a few minutes makes.
in a bad way.
2006-10-11 13:54:30
195.   caseybarker
New and creative ways to upstage those Mets.
2006-10-11 13:55:17
196.   natepurcell
any survivors?
2006-10-11 14:00:16
197.   Andrew Shimmin
First report was there were two on the plane, both dead, and two in the building who died. But now it sounds like the theory is Lidle was alone in the plane. I don't know if that means there were three in the building, or still just the original two. But early reports like this are often worthless.
2006-10-11 14:04:44
198.   Andrew Shimmin
Jeremy Schaap reporting that there are two total dead, Lidle and one resident of the apartment building.
2006-10-11 14:09:17
199.   JoeyP
Thats quite weird.
2006-10-11 14:22:59
200.   underdog
Yeah, that's the most horrible, weirdest news of the day. Yeesh.

May he RIP.

Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2006-10-11 14:23:57
201.   Linkmeister
Bronx Banter has a link in the comments to a September article about Lidle and his airplane. He had 95 hours solo hours back then.
2006-10-11 14:46:39
202.   bhsportsguy
201 The article is just beyond ironic considering today's events. Corey Lidle grew up and still lived in West Covina.

On whether or not the games should go on, it appears that it is raining in NYC so that game may be postponed, obviously there will be a moment of silence at both sites when those games do get played.

2006-10-11 15:09:13
203.   Jae
I don't want to make light of today's tragic events, but I'd rather go back to talking baseball.

I really want A-rod next season. I think he would come to LA, be way more relaxed and perform at pre NY levels.

I would give up LaRoche and either Hong Chi Kuo or Chad Billingsley, if the Yanks would pay some of Rodriguez' salary.

This would give us proven power at our black hole, 3B, as well as one of the best 3-4-5 in baseball.


with the 2nd half Furcal, this would be a very good lineup if 6-8 would perform at replacement levels. Arod is 31 and we can assume he would play at a high level for at least 5 more years. What do you guys think?

2006-10-11 15:11:31
204.   underdog
A Yankee fan friend of mine, and another friend who is not a Yankee fan, sent me some dark jokes about it - which are actually pretty funny in a sick way, make fun of the Yankees more than Lidle. However, I think I'll refrain from posting them here, at least for now. Don't want to enter the realm of tastelessness (publicly) so soon after this tragedy.
2006-10-11 15:13:12
205.   Jon Weisman
New post up top. And yeah, I'd pass on the jokes.
2006-10-11 15:14:04
206.   underdog
Speaking of ARod and rumors, the SF Chronicle's John Shea posted one for the Extreme Wishful Thinking Dept. this morning about ARod and the Giants. It really is more wishful thinking than even a rumor, but says the Giants should make a play for him to essentially offset loss of Bonds.

And whom does he think the Giants could offer NY for him? Doesn't say. How can they pay a chunk of his contract? Doesn't say.

2006-10-11 15:14:43
207.   underdog
205 Don't worry, I will. (I just told my friend to stop IM'ing them to me, too. Sheesh! I guess it's how Yankees fans mourn.)
2006-10-11 16:55:45
208.   Rocc
186. When we were trying to negotiate with him midseason, when his value was at it's highest, his agent was asking for a 4-5 year deal with the annual salary being between 10-12 MIL. Yeah, looking at his limited production in LA, his stock ain't anywhere close to be asking for that.

As for the Sheffield thing, many Rays fans have always wondered that but right now he'd be a very expensive 1B/DH. If we were promised a hometown discount, which I doubt, I say jump all over it.

2006-10-11 19:42:07
209.   Uncle Miltie
Miltie is a monster

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