While I agree with Jon, going back to the roundtable discussion that Ned, Grady and McCourt had right before the winning streak, I think Ned wants to get a number one starter and a power bat, the first will probably have to be acquired via free agency and the second, I am not sure. By getting the power bat, he would then be more willing to have the kids play since there would be less pressure on them.

How those needs effect the "core," I don't know but it would surprise if we are not mentioned in every deal regarding those types of players in the next two months.

thankfully, The Core of the dodger youth movement is far better than the movie of the same name.

also related to your post the other day, i sure hope loney will get starting dibs at first come spring. or, at least equal partnership in a proper platoon.

Ned seems to be flip-flopping a bit on the "power bat" thing. When he first started the job, I seem to recall him stating a preference for "speed and athleticism" over "power"...And, the team he put together (though devoid of HR hitters) nevertheless managed to score a lot of runs.

I wonder what has caused him to reconsider...

3 - Probably just how few homers the Dodgers hit.

I don't think Ned wanted to rely on power completely. That doesn't necessarily make him anti-power.

And again, we always have to watch how seriously we take his public statements.

I'm still trying to figure out where we would play the power bat. If Loney is the guy at first, and Ethier is in the outfield that leaves us third and maybe center or right (depending on where Drew plays next year).

Third base is an interesting problem (Betemit, LaRoche or free agent/trade). Do we go with a guy we have or do we make a play for an All Star?

Center/right is also intriguing. I'd like to see Kemp get a shot, but he may not be ready until mid-season. Do we stick with Marlon Anderson while we wait on Kemp (and pray that Anderson continues to channel Babe Ruth)? Or do we look for help elsewhere?

All that said, I'm more worried about the pitching staff.

3
I think he expected Kent and JD to combine for more then 34 jacks since they had combined to hit over 25 jacks 8 times headed into 06.

I'm having a very hard time thinking of a true number one pitcher (the "staff ace") who will be available by free agency anytime soon. The lights of both leagues are now young pitchers, for which the Tigers are an exemplar. If you didn't grow 'em yourself, you're in trouble, at least for a number of years.

Now, it might be the case that Chad Billingsley grows into that role. If he does, cool. But I don't see enough talent coming out of the Dodgers farm system in the near future to populate an entire rotation, and the Dodgers at least have to be thinking about what they'll do when Greg Maddux falters in midseason (which he will), and likewise Brad Penny, and, and, and.

As for the division getting stronger, that is more likely to happen slowly than quickly:

* The Giants have the makings of a fine young rotation, but lack position players and a solid bullpen.
* The Padres still need a thumper or three, and they're surprisingly old in some key spots (like the outfield) with no hope of near-term replacements.
* The Rockies have too many positions at which they need help to challenge in the near future. Their goal ought to be .500 by 2008.
* Alone in the NL West, the Diamondbacks have a good game plan. With a rotation anchored around their young Cy Young candidate in Brandon Webb, losing all their bad contracts save for Russ Ortiz, and a number of exciting prospects around the diamond, the Snakes could easily take the division as early as 2008, maybe even next year if things break right for them.

It's useful to remember that there's also a sauce-for-the-goose problem going on here, too; for teams like the Giants, who are unloading Barry Bonds and Steve Finley (I presume), they still have to dip into an awfully thin pool of free agents to replace them if they don't return. And there are a lot of missing parts they don't have, and maybe can't afford. In short, I see the NL West getting better next year, but I'd be willing to bet that 88 wins takes it.

7 - I should say, "Outside of the Dodgers in the NL West, the Diamondbacks have a good game plan."

7 - Colorado fell five wins short of .500 this season, and I wouldn't call them an old team. I don't see why they'd be struggling to make .500 in 2008.

San Diego has won consecutive division titles even with those holes and even with Peavy having a disappointing '06.

"Now, it might be the case that Chad Billingsley grows into that role. If he does, cool. But I don't see enough talent coming out of the Dodgers farm system in the near future to populate an entire rotation"

Well we have Billingsly, Kuo who are up now. Next wave is Elbert and G. Miller (who's going back to starting). Those 4 give us the best 4 young starters in baseball if they all live up to expectations.

9 - I didn't say Colorado was old, just inept in their current configuration. They'll be moving a wave of young talent in soon, and absent the kind of budget that made the Dodgers' 2006 postseason bid possible, they won't be able to spackle over learning curves. Maybe they can get a winning season in 2008, but color me skeptical; they haven't had the brains to get that together lately.

As for the Padres, they have an aging Dave Roberts and Mike Cameron to worry about, and David Wells to replace, and the continued offensive AND defensive decline of Khalil Greene, and no real power (even if they re-sign Mike Piazza, you've just gotta wonder how much gas is left in that aging tank).

What about Kershaw? ETA: mid-2008? Sounds ambitious but he was awesome this year.

9 - "San Diego has won consecutive division titles even with those holes and even with Peavy having a disappointing '06."

But can they win 88 next year? I'm not so convinced.

9 - I agree with Jon here. Add in a couple of "brain cramp losses" pulled from the jaws of victory in September against Chicago, Pittsburg and Milwaukee, the Dodgers would have reached 90-91 victories. I believe the NL west winner needs to reach 90-92 victories to have a realistic shot at the division crown. I believe it to be a 3 horse race with the Blue, the Priests and the Snakes battling it out to the end. I do believe however, the next wave of pitchers Jon listed are probably more likely to burst on the scene in 2008. You can maybe add Kersaw to Elbert and Miller.

Diamondbacks:
1st - Jackson vs Loney - headed into 2006 most people would have chosen Jackson but as we head into 2007 I bet it is a different story. Jackson is a stone gloveman at 1st base while Loney is Parker like. They both need to address the lack of power and while Jackson will edge Loney on plate discipline, Loney will outhit him.
2nd - Callaspo/Reynolds vs DeWitt - They gave away Uggla but made up for it by snagging Callaspo from the Angels. I'm not sold on him and I don't see how he's better then Hudson while DeWitt has a easy move to 2nd once Kent's contract is up. Dewitt was rated the number one 2nd base prospect by BA last week but Callaspo was 2nd and Reynolds 3rd.
SS - Stephen Drew vs Hu - Drew wins hands down
3b - Nobody vs LaRoche - We win the prospect battle on this front by default but LaRoche should be a solid 3b for years if Ned can gain the confidence in him to give him the job and not deal him.
C - Montero vs Martin - We win the prospect battle on this front by having the 2nd best young catcher in the NL.
RF - Carlos Quentin vs Nobody
CF - Young vs Kemp this seems to be a dead heat.
LF - Carlos Gonzalez vs Ethier - Carlos faltered at AA last year but his package seems to be much better then Ethiers unless the 2006 May-July Ethier was the real deal.

We edge the Diamonbacks in pitching with Billingsly, Kuo, Elbert, and Kershaw as legitimate rotational prospects. Micah Owings and Nippert are possible rotational prospects but with plenty of question marks.

The Diamondbacks have some great young players but it appears that we match up quite well with them. JMO

The last High School pitcher the Dodgers were so high on was Kiki Jones and I expect 95% of the DT readers have never heard of him. Don't get so giddy about Kershaw until he's reached the stage that Elbert has without blowing out his arm.

Or make that the last HS pitcher the Dodgers were so high on was Miller and we know how that is turning out.

So, according to this diagnosis, we should only sign FA pitchers like Zito, and only if they present a reasonable price for their services. We should not trade Brad Penny, since at his price, he's about as good as it's going to get; and we might have occasion to trade him at some other point, like the July deadline. We should re-sign Maddux for a year. And just be patient with the young pitching -- we are not weak in pitching prospects, just weak in pitching prospects ready to be Jeremy Bonderman in 2007. Even there, we might have two -- Billingsley and Kuo, which is two more than most teams have. If the trade market presents opportunities to add power, that's the route Ned should take.

You're right, that sounds like an atypically quiet hot stove period -- for the Dodgers anyway. I think Dodger fans have become crisis junkies. Seems like every off-season since the late 90s has included some wrenching and irritating drama. We could use a year off.

Next year, I think Maddux can still give us some QS in the 4th spot in that rotation. Plus Derek Lowe seemed to thrive with the Professor around. I personally would not tinker with the everday lineup that was productive last year without the true power bat. I am more worried about the pitching, starters and how the bullpen will shake itself out next year. Penny really had me rethinking his role with this team after the less than stellar second half. He needs to work on another out pitch, he works too hard to even get one out sometimes.

Is it settled for all time that Broxton is a reliever, not a starter?

You wouldnt' get any whining from me if the starting team was:
Loney, Kent, Furcal, Betemit/LaRoche, Martin, JD, Kemp, Ethier
with
Lowe, Billingsly, Kuo, Maddux, Penny
in the rotation with
Saito, Broxton, Brazoban, Tomko, Hendrickson, Beimel in the bullpen with a bench of
Saenz, M Anderson, Repko or Werth, Martinez, Backup Catcher

The obvious need is starting pitching, but I just have the feeling that the mediocre "rotation fillers" (Lilly, Padilla, Meche) are going to get Andy Ashby-money. Rather than overspend and regret by June a signing like that, it might be wise to sit tight and go with some combination of:

Lowe, Maddux, Penny, Billz, Kuo, Elbert, Miller, Tomko, or Hendrickson.

I'd still go pretty hard after Jason Schmidt, capping it at a 3-year deal but liberal on the annual salary. I don't think I'd touch anyone else out there, unless it's a 1-year flyer on a guy with upside.

I think an OFer is needed though. I would not feel comfortable going in with a rotation of Drew, Ethier, Kemp, Repko, Anderson. Not with Loney and Betemit getting time at the corners in the IF.

I don't want a quiet Winter. Viva la revolucion permanente!

If Ned signs Schmidt, and the Cubs sign Lugo, we go from having three first round picks, to having one sandwich pick. Have I got that right?

Another question, doesn't the new CBA vastly increase the chances that Gagne comes back next year? That's sort of a nice reprieve.

And nobody mentioned the best young arm in the Dodger organization: Meloan. If his arm soreness ends, he will be pitching AA and then MLB soon thereafter.

If the Dodgers sign Schmidt and Maddux I would expect to see at least Penny and perhaps both Penny and Lowe traded for a third baseman.

Allow me to continue to beat the Pat Burrell drum...

Carlos Lee (age 30)
2006- .300/.355/.540 (37 hr, 58 bb)
career - .286/.340/.495

Burrell (age 30)
2006- .258/.388/.502 (29 hr, 98 bb)
career - .258/.362/.479

Burrell has 2yrs/$27M on his deal. Lee will get a higher AAV and for 4-5 yrs. So Burrell could be like a Furcal signing- expensive but less downside.

24
He's pitched 91 minor league innings and only 3 starts in two seasons. A darkhouse for the bullpen but I'd rather see him get moved into the AA rotation and see what he can do there.

Our best prospect is a 3b, I'd be unhappy if we traded our thin pitching for a 3b unless his name is Arod.

26 - our thin pitching

Wait, I thought he was talking about Penny...

I agree that the division is getting stronger, but I wouldn't count out a pitching-rich team like SF.

As much as I like the Dodgers, I think the D'Backs are the team to beat in 2007: outstanding young hitting at a lot of positions, true staff ace, and decent (cheap) bullpen. SF's great pitching will figure in as the spoiler against SD and LA.

26- Cube has him starting three this year, and six minor league games in 2005 (plus the 19 he started at Arizona, that year). So, nine over two seasons. That's still not many, but three times as many as three.

Cube

Edgy

26 - A darkhouse for the bullpen

I hear he's mighty mighty, just lettin' it all hang out.

10 - TANSTAAPP.

30- That's nothing. From here on out, I'm calling it: ³.

TASTAPP - There are such things as pitching prospects. Grab 'em in bulk, and at least one is likely to pan out.

33
Wow, that's like, edgy to the third power and stuff...

You want to talk about edgy, Jon just turned a time-honored acronym on its head.

Jon's more "shifty" than "edgy"...

Well at least we know Martin is safe.

why is everyone so keen to re-sign maddux? don't get me wrong, he is one of my favorite pitchers ever, and he was great for the dodgers this year, but i wouldn't depend on him for anything more than a 4th-5th starter at this point in his career, and he's getting paid much more than that type of pitcher is worth. sure, he may have helped some of our guys with his experience, but do they really need another full year of tutelage? and brad penny didn't seem to get much out of maddux at all, so i don't know if i buy the argument that maddux has a real impact on staff ERA. if he really does, hire him as a pitching coach.

meanwhile, we've already got 4 guys in a rotation without a true ace, and 2 backup 5th starter-level guys in the bullpen, plus more young guys from the farm we can plug in in an emergency. so i'd rather spend the money on the front end of the rotation and get a matsuzaka or a zito, or even a schmidt (though i'm not a fan of his).

and besides that, we still need a bat and a closer too, remember. or if we promote broxton, we need more setup-level bullpen depth. and a LOOGY maybe, though that's the least of our worries.

also, in response to rob: pending their offseason moves, i predict the rockies will have a >.500 record in 2007, and will finish ahead of the giants.

Broxton just needs to learn a changeup and he will be a dominant closer.

40
And if he saves 40 games, he'll be a "proven" closer...

I checked in at about 8;30 Eastern and it was just announcers like McCarver, who I kind of like, but this means it is probabily rained out. I will check back later just in case. Howdy do.

42- It's not rained out. Or, not yet, anyway. Suppan put the Tigers down in order in the top of the first.

Looks like a heavy band of rain coming soon.
I will be surprised if they let this go past 4 innings, but I will keep checking in.

40 -- Does Broxton really need to be any better than he already is to be a great closer? Broxton already has a second plus pitch to go along with the plus fastball (his slider), and that is pretty well all that F-Rod in Anaheim has. Just the dramatic improvement Broxton made during the second half of the season in terms of not surrendering home runs illustrates that better polish and location were the things he needed, and now he has got them. I would be perfectly happy with Broxton as our closer in 2007, but it will likely be Saito. The stuff about Saito returning to Japan was doubtless a negotiating ploy, and if we have to pay Saito a lot more than a second year MLB player usually gets, fine.

45
Broxton can be a real good closer now, but I think if he learns a change he could be Gagne like.

In addition, I worry about the stress having to throw a lot of sliders could do to his arm. At least the changeup gives him another pitch to strike people out with.

For the few Dodgers fans who had asked me about Elijah Dukes a week or two again, he's just recently replaced Wes Bankston(severe ankle sprain) in the AFL. He's on a weird schedule where he plays OF one day, DHs the next and plays 1B on the 3rd. What that basically means for his trading value, is that he's alot more valuable to the Rays because we don't have a clear-cut 1st baseman. I still believe that the Rays will still end up trading him this offseason, though.

Ironically, Joel has seemingly found his bat in the DR Winter League where he's hitting .323 and popping a few HRs over the fence. However, he has yet to play a game there at 1B(mainly at 3B)

I heard Dukes is goin to the DR Winter League as soon as he is done with AFL.

*going

They want him to play a lot I guess to get him back in shape and to deal him.

48

were do you get your DR info? i wanna know how my boy Kemp is doing.

Just a thought:

Grady Little and Ned Colletti have said that what they need to acquire a big power guy and a solid starter to go deeper into games.

Eric Gagne, after last season said that the Dodgers need to get a 40-homer guy, a .310 hitter, and a durable starter (for the purposes of giving Gagne some credibility, we'll ignore that he had Weaver in mind). The Dodgers don't have a problem with guys who can hit for good average (Ethier, Nomar, Furcal, and Lofton ended up .300 or better on the year), but durability from the rotation and more power are clearly needed.

Gagne also convinced Martin that he should skip out on the World Baseball Classic so he has a better shot at making the team. The Dodgers went with Dioner Navarro initially, but after he got hurt, Martin won the job away from him.

I'm not really sure what this means.

you guys are way too pessimisitc about our pitching prospects. I dont get it, we have two of the top 3 left pitching prospects in the minors, we have two young studs up in the rotation in kuo and billingsley and we have a dark horse high upside one in Meloan. I mean, yes he mostly pitched in relief, but that was to ease him back so he doesnt reinjure himself. Since he was drafted, his stuff has turned into legit front of the rotation stuff. Just look at his K rate at all three levels last year. And out of all of that, we still have Greg Miller as a solid bullpen option. Alot of you guys are way too pessimistic. A ton of teams would kill for our young pitchers/pitching prospects.

I think it means don't go with this over hyped and terribly timed world baseball thing. And also, you could develop some power from inside the org., which might keep you from mis-judjing and overspending, as the org. has experienced for many years and even decades.

Ironically, Joel has seemingly found his bat in the DR Winter League where he's hitting .323 and popping a few HRs over the fence. However, he has yet to play a game there at 1B

the last two winter league seasons, guzman has started out blazing hot and then slumped towards the end. Hopefully he can keep up the progress and momentum heading into ST.

53

What is the current high ceiling projection for Billingsley?Is he looked upon to develop into a true #1 starter, one of the top 5 starters in baseball etc. etc. or is it way too early to even project something like that? What I am trying to ask; has his future dimmed at all in the eyes of the experts? I'm still very impressed by him. great curveball and seems to be able to shut the door once runners get on base. any info would be appreciated.

Wow, Encarnation is always in the thick of things. Is he really more talented than Drew, lofton, Ethir, etc.
I doubt it, but he gets in more play-offs.

todays game is a nice watch in my opinion

Rockies core is actually pretty damn good with Holliday and Atkins, though like you said they still have too many holes (front line starters. closers. i think their MI will be ok next year with Matsui and Tulo but their CF is still a question) with that said, if this year's pitching from Jennings Cook and crew was real, then i think breaking .500 next year isn't exactly difficult.

The Yankees would like to trade A-rod for Kuo or Elbert or Billingsly /Penny/Laroche/Hall !! :P or really anything decent for Gary Sheffield!!

Pat Burrell can be had pretty easily. but you have to remember that his power should suffer even more when he plays in the NL west. without the bandbox home stadium. and he isnt as complete of a player as Bobby Abreu, not to meantion his foot problems scares people ...

If you think this is a drama, just go read the nyyfans.com forum , the trade A-rod thread has close to 3000 replies already heh.

I know the fact is that whichever team wins deserved to win. But the Cards so don't deserve to win this thing.

This is the first time I have ever rooted against the NL team.

Why would Bochy take the Giants job? The Pods are going to be the better team for the next few years. I believe the Giants will re-sign Barry. What manager wants to deal with that. Bochy is supposed to get $1.7M from the Pods next year. Thats alot of dough. The Giants will have to match and more. The only reason I can think of is the Giants will give him a multi-year deal and the Pods won't. The good news is I'm in favor of anything that might alter the Pods stranglehold on the Dodgers.

Something called the Dodger Season Review is starting on FSNPT, right now.

61
Bochy took the job because after next year he was going to be out of a job in San Diego, Sandy Alderson is in the process of changing upper managemet there and Kevin Towers is next out the door...I think it helps the Dodgers marginally. What will be more important for the Dodgers is another good starting pitcher.

63

i don't understand why S.D. wouldn't give Bochy a multi year deal he's done nothing but great for 12 years. ah what ever i'm just happy he's out & hoping he takes his Dodger beating mojo with him.

What kind of odds could I get on Terry Collins getting the SD job?

65

he's got a gig in Japan already

66- Didn't it fall through? Maybe I'm thinking of someone else.

Terry Francona's managing the US team in a Japanese exhibition fell through. I should pay closer attention.

51- Baseball America's handy dandy Daily Prospect reports updated me on Joel's progress.

The only thing I remember about the movie, The Core, was the seemingly dumb deaths that occured in the movie and it being Hilary Swank's worst role since "The Next Karate Kid"

So Bochy's officially the Giants manager now. I like that he's leaving San Diego, and like that he'll be SF's manager instead of some of the other guys they were talking to - who may have seemed more of a risk to them but I think ultimately may prove to be better managers. At least the Dodgers know what to expect from Bochy. (Maybe he was hired because of his record vs. LA. But I don't think the Dodgers will be intimidated.)

The Core was a reasonably entertaining, stupid movie with a good cast wasted around a really stupid plot.

25 Burrell played in a bandbox last year. I'd rather go after Andruw Jones or someone else who could play CF (Edmonds? He'd come cheap and Kemp would still get plenty of pt); I'd rather have Ethier in LF with a proven CF than Burrell in LF with Kemp in CF.