The Tigers didn't win the World Series this year.

1 - Holy cow, I can't believe I did that. I suck.

Hang on.

Hahah, that's awesome.

Upcoming important dates:

October 28 - November 11th - Players can declare to become free agents, they can only negotiate with their current team during this time period.
November 12th - Free Angents can begin to negotiate with all teams.
Nov. 13-17: General Managers meeting, Naples, Fla.
Nov. 16: Owners meeting, Chicago (MLB expected to ratify new CBA)
Dec. 1: Last day for teams to offer salary arbitration to their players who became free agents.
Dec. 4-7: Winter Meetings, Orlando, Fla.
Dec. 4-8: MLBPA executive board meeting, Bonita Springs, Fla.
Dec. 7: Last day for free agents offered salary arbitration to accept or reject the offers.
Dec. 12: Last day for teams to tender 2007 contracts to unsigned players.

BTW - According to Tony Jackson, Ned Colletti plans to meet in Arizona this week with assistant general manager Kim Ng, special assistant Bill Lajoie, scouting director Logan White and newly hired player development director DeJon Watson to begin planning for the offseason. I believe that only Ned and Kim Ng reside in L.A., White and Watson both live in Arizona and Lajoie lives back out of state as well.

Jon, I'm not quite sure where you're going here. I guess your point is that the Dodgers have often been putting up regular season records that are competetive with the records that the champions are putting up?

At any rate, shouldn't the 2006 MRYDHEBR be...2006? Why exclude this year? (Or did that just carry over from the apparent Tigers gaffe?)

6 - Where I'm going is that there have been very often teams that had as much or more ground than the Dodgers to be the best.

Based on 2004 records, the Dodgers were a better bet to win a WS in 2005 than the White Sox.

Based on 2002 records, the Dodgers were a better bet to win a WS in 2003 than the Marlins.

And so on.

7 - of course, this assumes strength of schedule is identical for the NL East vs. the NL West in 2002/2003, or for the AL Central in 2004/2005.

8 - Of course. It's not meant for analytical purposes. It's just what it is. I'm not trying to sell it as some great insight. I just couldn't help noticing how often it happened.

7 Oh - I thought you were comparing the champion's record in their championship season with the Dodgers' record in that season and previous seasons. No wonder I was confused!

Among other things, Jon's finding seems to suggest that a team's record in one season doesn't do a "great" job of predicting their record in the next season.

Out of curiousity, I looked at the Dodgers' history, and used their record in year (X-1) to predict their record in year X. I found that there is a significant positive relationship between the two (meaning that as the record in year (X-1) goes up, so does the record in year X), though the record in year (X-1) explains only 23% of the variation in the record in year X. In other words, other factors explain 77%.

11 Sounds like you are doing the math.

12
Well, someone has to take "You do the math" seriously...

11 D4P

Looks like inverse reasoning to me.

14
What do you mean?

4 Let's get the Burrell trade taken care of at the GM meetings, so we can spend the next month addressing other areas of need. They're willing to eat salary now, so this can't take more than a prospect to get done.

16 Problem is Burrell has a full no trade clause. Anyone know if he has any desire to play for the Dodgers?

What do people think about Aramis Ramirez getting the nod at third base now that he has become a free agent?

It would allow Loney and Ethier to start the season with less pressure to produce immediately, that's for sure.

But what does it do with LaRoche? Does it create a LaRoche/DeWitt battle for the future at 2nd?

17 He's from Cahleefoneya so I don't see why not. Plus he's probably sick of getting booed mercilessly so he'd benefit from playing in front of 40,000 different fans every nite.

15 D4P

Nothing major. Just would take the other view point, x+1 to predict year. Or may be I misunderstand?

20
I used the previous year's record (e.g. 2005) to predict the current year's record (e.g. 2006). I'm not sure what you're advocating, but it wouldn't make sense to say that the 2005 year was influenced by the 2006 year.

Here's an analysis of Top 10 free agent pitchers & position players likely to move.

It quotes a GM who ranks Zito top available pitcher and says Dodgers stand #1 for him. Points out that at 28, he's probably just entering his prime. Says Matsuzaka likely to Yankees and projects now as a No.2 starter, not a No. 1. Has Jeff Weaver #10. Lists Gagne among "others."

Among position players, has Nomar #2 after Soriano, Lugo #5. Lofton among "others."

Says it's a thin class; expects teams to overpay. (So what else is new?)

http://tinyurl.com/ye7p2v

#6 Position player on this FA list is Seung-Yeop Lee, Yomiuri Giants, 1B

2006: .323, 41 HR (Japan)Age: 30

Says he may not leave Japan. If he does, teams will be interested. In Japan and Korea, has hit more than 400 home runs and he also hits for average.

Anyone know if he plays anywhere in addition to 1B?

He plays DH too! And he can stand in the outfield, but I would guarantee him catching anything.

22 When I tried the link I was sent to a registration page, which didn't happen when I first found it.

Maybe too much of a hassle for DT folks. If so, 22 hits some of the highlights.

How good is that guarantee:)

Oops, left out the "'nt" after would in 24

27
Oops, left out the "'" in between nt in 27

25
Linked worked for me, just ignore the registration.

Haven't heard the talk about Soriano in CF until recently, but it sure is intriguing. We could solve our CF and power problem with one sweeping move if he could or actually want to play CF. Soriano's season was the biggest surprise to me as I expected a sharp dropoff in power.

Unlike Jon I love the stovetop season.

Bob, I posted this to last thread after this one opened (so what else is new, 2nd verse).

137 139 I don't doubt teams griped about the WBC. Its timing so close to the season was nowhere near good.

But were there any stories written or was any objective analysis done on aftereffects on players--or lack of? Or is the griping all anecdotal?

Teams would be very quick to blame the WBC for problems of players who participated, and they might be right. Seo and ODP might be Dodger instances of it.

If anyone would know about this, I'd think it'd be you. Thanks.

30 - Baseball Prospectus looked at the WBC aftermath in depth. If you subscribe, check their archives.

29 - Soriano in CF?

Let me get this straight: a player who couldn't handle second base, the second-least-interesting fielding position on the infield, and who has been a slightly-better-than-adequate left fielder (a position generally where inadequate gloves are hidden) should suddenly be converted to center?

This is a fever dream. I have heard this foolishness from not a few Angels fans imagining that this would work adequately instead of, say, releasing Garret Anderson or relegating him to a fulltime DH role, but a total failure to heed Bill James' comment about rightward shifts on the defensive spectrum never working doesn't strike me as advisable, not in the least.

32 - What about Jeff Kent in center ... oh, never mind.

30, are those some future links??

Re: Burrell, I actually think you'd be better off going after the Wolfman and/or Lieberthal with that $$. Burrell will give you roughly the same production as JD Drew but with the sudden disappearance of LA's prospect depth at positions the Phils would try to address (3B, C, P), it doesn't seem like any deal would be possible short of the Dodgers swapping a Lowe (with the contracts being traded) or an Ethier (Phils pay) for him.

At this point it seems like the Phils will have to be blown away by an offer to move Burrell, otherwise they will save the $$ they would use to buy him out and join the bidding war for Aram-ram.

33 Ok, Jon. Step away from the keyboard. Things will be fine, just put down the mouse and walk away.

This one's for Bob
http://tinyurl.com/tvrm3

22- David Dellucci would be a nice pickup. Bring back Werth (if he's healthy) and you have yourself a pretty nice platoon.

Why hasn't Toby Hall filed for free agency, yet? He's eligible to, right? Does he need somebody to come over and help with the paper work?

36
I had seen that earlier in the day.

I wasn't overly surprised.

34 No, they're links to the past. As in previous thread. Left in during repost by some twerp....

SUPER-PARITY and RECEIVED WISDOM:

It's often been mentioned in the media that we have had a different champion every year since 2000

But what I have never seen mentioned is the fact that among the six champions since 2001, not only has there been a new champion each year, but a new division has been represented each time - so in six years all six divisions have been represented:
2001NL WEST
2002 AL WEST
2003 NL EAST
2004 AL EAST
2005 AL CENTRAL
2006 NL CENTRAL

*So, of course, if this statistical tendency continues, you all see the division that will produce next year's champion…

*Also, the much maligned NL has won 3 of the last 6 titles

*Also the much maligned NL Central has won the last 3 NL pennants

For a guy who only learned how to play the outfield for the 1st time this year did he really do a bad job? I never saw him play and I don't know what the metrics were but given it was his 1st attempt do they really mean anything? Most outfielders have played 200-300 professional games by the time they hit the major leagues.
He certainly has the speed to handle CF and he couldn't be any worse then Roger Cedeno who was given plenty of innings in CF. Or maybe he could be which would be really bad but I don't see how it is such a bad idea that Jon felt the need to throw out Jeff Kent. Anyway it was not my idea, just something I've seen recently being discussed.

41 - I was only joking in response to Rob's comment - it wasn't a comment on Soriano one way or another.

Latest BA info on Dodgers playing in the AFL
" Dodgers righthander Jonathan Meloan has come a long way in his first full season. The 2005 fifth-rounder out of Arizona went 3-1, 1.90 with 91 strikeouts in 52 innings during the regular season as he jumped to Double-A.

Saturday, Meloan's fastball topped out at 93, sitting consistently in the 91-92 range. He also showed and 85-86 mph slider, 74-76 mph curveball and changeup as he picked up the save for Mesa. Meloan went 1 1/3 innings, striking out three.

• Dodgers shortstop Chin-Lung Hu hasn't gotten off to a fast start at defensively this fall, showing long actions at times and often trying to make the routine play into something spectacular. His bat also hasn't been impressive, hitting just .216 (8-for-37) with just a pair of extra-base hits.

"He just tries to do too much," a scout from an NL club said. "He has first-step quickness, he has some explosiveness defensively, but he's not fundamentally sound. He's not the guy you want the ball hit to when it means something. (Dodgers 2005 second-round pick) Ivan DeJesus is such a much better prospect for them at that position."

Courtesy of Bronx Banter:
Player: Zone Rating/Fielding Pct/Range Factor
Matsui: .834/.979/2.07
Soriano: .876/.969/2.28
Cabrera: .816/.996/2.06

40 - WOW, terrific catch, the 7 different champions has been beaten into our heads constantly but that is incredible. Compare to, say, the NFL, paragons of competitive balance:

2000 NFC West
2001 AFC North
2002 AFC East
2003 NFC South
2004 AFC East
2005 AFC East
2006 AFC North

and notice how none of those are from the perennial "best division in football", the NFC East...grr...

Re: the LAD, I think there is actually a left fielder out on the market that Colletti knows quite well from SF...

45
Why would we want Randy Wynn? Remember, we need some pop in the lineup.

Day 3 of FA filing period and still nothing from Maddux or Gagne.

Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Lee both filed today, Ramirez opting out of his Cub deal, Cubs can still negotiate with him for next two weeks.

Also the Padres exercised their options on Cameron and Branyan while declining on Piazza.

A total of 122 players have filed for free agency so far but there is no list that I have found that lists all of them.

If there is no definitive list, maybe some are getting lost in the shuffle of paperwork at MLB headquarters?

Steve Sax vs. Joe Morgan in 1986 MLB arm-wrestling tonight on Cheap Seats

49. Steve Sax had no arm.
vr, Xei

Steve Sax arm wrestling?

So..many...jokes.......must...get...oxygen...

I wouldn't have recognized Saxy if they hadn't told me who he was. Morgan looked exactly the same.

I would pass on Soriano, Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn too. Actually none of the names out there would be of interest to me. Carlos Lee has power but he is not a good outfielder. If I had to chose an outfielder who is available, I like Mathews Jr the best, but something tells me he is going to want too many years and too many dollars for what has been mostly a mediocre career.

This year I will be pleased if Ned does nothing big. I imagine he can't do that though because he would get hammered in the media.

Stan from Tacoma

I would pass on Soriano, Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn too.

I would pass on Burrell. Dunn and Soriano, however...

I could be confusing players or stats but I think Soriano led MLB in outfield assists. If correct, that is a pretty impressive stat for someone's first year in the OF. Also according to the Nats he is a pretty good clubhouse guy. That being said, he had a pretty big drop-off the second half and he is going to want a more money than the US Mint can print.

I think there is actually a left fielder out on the market that Colletti knows quite well from SF...

Bite your tounge. Even though I think he is going to hit 35+HRs next year I don't want him anywhere near the Dodger locker room.

This whole Bonds/Giants drama is amusing. I can't believe he wants to play anywhere else or the Giants would let him. Yet, they are both slinging alot of mud at one another. What a suprise that they can't get this done without acrimony.

Players I don't want no matter how good or how cheap they may be:

1. Barry Bonds
2. Gary Sheffield
3. Kenny Rogers
4.
5.
6.

(I'm still tinking)

57
4. Jeff Kent
5. David Eckstein
6. Julio Lugo

How come no one mentions Manny in left field. I would think Frank is drooling at the prospect of a bona fide Red Sox slugger in a Dodger uniform. Imagine how many strange situations Manny could get himself into in Los Angeles. The Playboy Mansion. The Oscars. Movie Sets. Club Openings. Disneyland. The possibilites are endless.

This is probably not fair, but when I see Soriano I think of Juan Samuel. Samuel was a guy who would swing at most anything. He had a few really good years and then fell off a cliff. I guess there are enough bad pitchers in the league for Soriano to feast on, but he is not what I would be looking for if I was building a ballclub. I would rather keep Nomar and play Loney in left and move Ethier to center than to sign Soriano

Stan from Tacoma

Wow Jeff Suppan and Michael J. Fox are going to rumble. I could do without athletes or actors doing political commercials. Actually I could do without political commercials.

http://tinyurl.com/y5ppg8

http://tinyurl.com/y5x7w3

Did anyone here see Rick Reilly's article about how the SF Chronical reporters who broke the Bonds steroid grand jury testimony should be given an award instead of jail time. I really like Reilly's stuff but he was very wrong on this one.

(I would post a link but you have to be a subscriber.)

OK I'm done using DT as my own steam of consciousness (for now).

Michael J. Fox had one of my all-time favorite sitcom lines. In an episode of "Family Ties," when Mallory was particularly upset with Nick, she said that she never wanted to hear the name "Nick" again. Alex P. Keaton walked over to the mantle, grabbed a tchotsky, and exclaimed, "This nick-nack is nicked"

St. Louis, World Series champion and #1 in crime, too:

http://tinyurl.com/y2v2ok

64. I'm guessing Nicholas Nickleby would not be her favorite book/movie.

Einar Diaz and Aaron Sele are officially free agents, see all 122.

http://tinyurl.com/yf2c8a

55 Regarding Soriano's outfield assist totals: I read once that many poor outfielders rack up high assist numbers because runners take many more chances on their (the outfielders) arms.

I wonder if there is a source that tracks how many times an outfielder is tested by runners (kind of a runners thrown out/runners attempting to take an extra base or tag up). Also, I'd be curious to see Soriano's assists by month. Did the league stop running on him as the season wore on?

Sometimes that is true but when you look at players with strong arms like Clemente, Mondesi and so forth you see lots of assists so that arguement doesn't always hold up.

64
Always wondered how you spelled "tchotsky". Another day another thing learned on DT.

60
Samuel derived alot of his slug% from his triples and Soriano has never hit double digits in triples. The only valid comparison is the lack of plate discipline but Soriano's 46 HR's playing at home in RFK is one of the more impressive numbers I've seen this summer unless the park factors changed dramatically this summer from last summer. For RHB in 2005 the HR index was 76 and Soriano hit more HR at home then on the road this summer.

Anybody else see where Aramis Ramirez opted out of his contract? He could be the power bat we've been looking for, although he won't be cheap. That would probably mean either moving LaRoche to 2B (does he have the ability?) or trading him. You can't really pass on a sure thing if it comes to you though.

I think the most likely explanation for the phenomona that Jon brings up in the main post is luck.

I also think, however, that part of the explanation is the Dodgers inability/refusal over much of their recent history to plan even one year ahead. Every year, since the Strawberry era, its been stopgaps at half the positions on the diamond. Trying like heck to be respectable/competitive this year, and never giving the new guys a serious chance to cut their teeth.

Furthermore, I don't think this year was substantially different, except that the stopgaps were so fragile, and the young guys so good that they practically broke the door down.

Did anybody catch the Dodgers FSN post season special, where Kevin Kennedy said that they basically have to bring everybody (Nomar/Lofton, etc) back?

Not being fluent in Yiddish, but I believe the proper spelling is:

Tchotchke

69 I think the players that tend to get outfield assists are the ones with really good arms, and the ones who can't throw worth a lick, for the reasons mentioned above. I'm not sure what class Soriano falls into, but I have no desire to pay for his sudden improvement in his contract year either way.

Yiddish is written with Hebrew characters. Any reasonable attempt at phonetics is usually acceptable. Like the 12 spellings of Hannukah.

73 - I saw parts of the post season show, had to laugh when FMLMKK talked about bringing Lofton, Nomar, and Maddux back. Ok, I laughed the second (or third) time I saw it... the first time I yelled at the TV and nearly threw my remote at it.

FMLMKK seems to have that affect on me.

If LaRoche moves to second, does that mean we cna try and shop Kent? Or is LaRoche still a year away?

Tchotchke

That's roughly how I tried to spell it in The Google, but The Google asked me if I meant "Tchotsky"

How about цацки?

There's also tshatshke

Trotsky.

טשאַטשקע

or צאַצקע

When I cut and paste Hebrew letters in to this browser, the OS made me start entering characters in the opposite direction, which I found somewhat cool.

Schottzie.

otchkeTche

Joanie loves Chachi

82 The characters are hard to read, but I think the second one is much more likely to correct.

I got them from here:

http://www.yiddishdictionaryonline.com/

Tchotchke and Hutch.

It is always interesting to see what side roads DT posters visit.

I heard a rumor that D4P is a Tchotchke-ist.

91
That's "Tchotchkii-ist" to you...

55-68-69 My opinion is that runners tried Soriano's arm and found out he has a pretty good one. He also misplays a lot of grounders but is able to recover quickly and surprise the runners with a good throw.

What did Google say about knick-knack?

Burrell (and to a lesser extent, Soriano)
classic demo of divide between folks who think cold stats tell them what they need to know about adding players for championship runs, and
folks who've actually watched said players in real time, on real fields, with varying game pressure...Burrell will kill ya in most key at-bats (he is like Drew in that regard - caught looking time after time) and give back many of his offensive plusses with scary left-field defense. Soriano became an adequate left-fielder this year, nothing more. Gotta agree with the spirit expressed in #53; think free-agent value might be in second-tier guys this go-round.

72 If we signed Ramirez, is there any possibility that LRoche could be converted to a centerfielder? Providing Kemp doesn't work out.

95 I doubt LaRoche has the speed for that, although I believe he might be athletic enough to man LF. 1B is probably the most logical shift, but our man Loney has to falter first.

J.D. Drew's on-base percentage and slugging in 2006:

Runners on: .406/.486
Scoring position: .421/.480
Runners on, two out: .459/.570
Scoring position, two out: .437/.471
Man on third, less than two out: .426/.529
Close and late: .397/.533 (results in the 7th inning or later with the batting team either ahead by one run, tied or with the potential tying run at least on deck.)

Drew struck out, swinging or looking, 55 times in more than 300 plate appearances with runners on, or about once every five trips. That ratio more or less holds in the other categories.

If one watched J.D. Drew during his 146 games this season, in real time, on real fields, with varying game pressure, that's what one would have seen. It's not as if the stats are taken from some fictional set of games.

93 I'll also add that he misplays a lot of fly ball outs into hits. Sometimes the hitter gets greedy and tries to take on extra base with his gift and gets thrown out. (I've seen that one.)

94 Burrell's OPS in close and late situations, year by year:

2003: .842
2004: .748
2005: .825
2006: .828

Admiteddly, it's a step below his usual numbers, but it's still good. However, his numbers in these situations, low average, high on base, moderate power, suggest that he simmply doesn't get pitches to hit with the game on the line. His numbers with runners in scoring position over the last four years are similar, a slight drop in OPS, but still someone I'd like to see up there.

97 - how about in the month of September, when games count 1.35x what they do in April:

JD: .462/.683

97 Jon Weisman
That ratio more or less holds in the other categories.

Interesting. The way I have it is that he SO 18% of the time with runners on base and 18% of the time with no one on.

97- the only statistic needs to be brought into the discussion is 100 RBI. If you are having an argument with Bill Plaschke and the topic of JD Ghost's clutchness comes up, just say "but he's a '100 RBI man'"

The Dodgers have already been linked to Aramis Ramirez now that's he opted out of his contract. Ramirez has really developed into a reliable hitter, but even though his defense has improved, it's average at best. Ramirez will likely command a deal for $13+ million over 5 years. I'd rather spend that kind of money on pitching (Zito, Schmidt for fewer than 5 years).

I was supposed to go to that huge Halloween party at the Castro in San Francisco tonight, but now I have the stomach flu :(

Baseball Prospectus announced its Internet Baseball Awards today.

Dodgers being mentioned are:

NL MVP: Rafael Furcal, ninth
NL Rookie of the Year: Russell Martin, sixth (one first place vote)
NL Manager of the Year: Grady Little, fifth

See the entire article here: http://tinyurl.com/y53yjj

If Ned wants to spend 13 Mill on Aramis I'm all for it. I'll take the slug 3b over Zito. They could switch LaRoche to 2nd where he should be adequate or include him in a deal for CF or young pitching.

It is maddening to see JD take 3rd strikes but the reality trumps perception in this case. Expect to see JD have a Dye like eruption in 2007 after working out all winter instead of rehabbing.

102 Uncle Miltie
I'd rather spend that kind of money on pitching (Zito, Schmidt for fewer than 5 years).

Maybe you can do both or something close.
Drop Garciaparra's contract, sign Ramirez, play Loney and increase your payroll by a few $M and have money for a front-line pitcher...not necessarily Zito or Schmidt, possibly a trade.

So which MLB teams will not be bidding on Aram-ram this winter?

99 - Reg, who are you going to believe, the numbers or your own eyes? Or as the case may be, their eyes:

Part 2: http://tinyurl.com/y3fus3

Part 1: http://tinyurl.com/y93v6u

So, what are ML averages for striking out with/without runners on, close/late, or whatever other situations are key in game outcomes?

Didn't Grady say Drew is one of the best at drawing a walk? If so, he's going to be taking many potential strike 3 pitches. Some will be more than potential.

Ramirez is the one hitter that I would like to get. It is our weakest position on the diamond and while Laroche is waiting in the wings, he just underwent surgery and he could conceivably play somewhere else (a 2B with huge power would be nice). Ramirez had a terrible April (197/321/394), but the rest of his year was amazing: (305/360/582, OBP estimated). It is different hitting in Wrigley instead of Dodger stadium, but the HR factor between the two stadiums is practically identical (DS is 98.5% of HR stadium that Wrigley is) so maybe it costs Ramirez a HR, maybe. Even with mediocre defense he would solve our biggest problem (no power) at our worst position. I would ultimately rather have Zito or Matsuzaka, but it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to get Aramis.

LAKER FANS-I've got a free ticket available to tonights game. Lower level section 106. Must contact me by 16:15 at pgurnee@socal.rr.com so I can forward the ticket. I can't forward the ticket after 16:30. Alas all my friends now have children or their wife's won't let them leave them alone on Halloween.

Ticket is gone

Aramis does intrigue @ 3rd his dingers & RBI'S will more than make of for his errors @ 3rd.

110

ToyCannon has connections man!

Apparently Scott Boras fax machine worked today.

Greg Maddux, Barry Zito, Jeff Weaver and Eric Gagne were among the players who filed for free agency today. Gagne filed though the Dodgers still hold a $12M option or $1M buyout if they don't exercise it, if the Dodgers do exercise it (don't think so), he can opt out and receive 250K.

Others filing include Benjie Molina, Sean Casey, Bernie Williams and Jeff Bagwell.

143 players out of the possible 200 or so have filed so far.

Man, I hate being back in the Bay Area. Can only see Lakers on national tv and against Warriors.

114 No NBATV cable/direct tv package up there.

I am cool with Aramis, but I would not give him a lengthy deal and I hope we would keep LaRoche. The Furcal deal set the standard that I like, give the player tons of money, but just not for a long time.

115
I have to wait till I move out of mom's house.

Hmm Bagwell could be an interesting one when thinking about who could become 2007's Frank Thomas...

Why Aramis? I would much rather go after a power hitting outfielder (Wells, Soriano, Lee, Dunn, etc.), and LaRoche is only a year away (pending the shoulder issues, of course). Betemit can man the fort for another year. Get pitching, get a bopper for the outfielder, lock down a centerfielder (if possible). I'm pretty sure it's moot, because I don't see any way that we go after Aramis Ramirez.

118 Unfortunately, like Thomas, Bagwell really can't play the field anymore so he'll probably be relegated to trying to latch on as a part-time DH in the AL.

119 Wells and Dunn aren't free agents yet, Lee is highly overrated (has never had an OPS over .900 and plays terrible defense), and Soriano is going to land a gargantuan contract despite his career year consisting of a .911 OPS.

3B may not be our most glaring need, but Ramirez is the surest bet out of the bunch. Wells is the only option you present who plays CF (the actual glaring need), but we'd have to trade for him.

Also, we seem to be the one name consistent in everyone's guesses for who will go after him.

No Kobe tonight, oh man we are going to get killed on national television.

i like aramis, hes the best bet to produce out of the free agent hitters. hes only 28 so hes in his prime and he also has a great track record of major league production. i just would be sad if we have to trade laroche if we sign aramis.

I wasn't talking about free agents. I was talking about acquiring players. It could be through free agency, it could be through trades.

Ramirez is a fine player, that's for sure. I'm just not interested in paying what it would take. Actually, I don't really like Carlos Lee at all, it's just one of those "out there" names.

Grab Zito would be #1 for me. Unless Wells is as available as people say, in which case he'd be it. Zito and Wells? I explode.

126

who would you trade for wells?

Any combination of Penny and DeWitt, Ethier, Broxton, Meloan, or Kuo.

I'm sure they'd want at least one higher end prospect with Penny. I would give up Broxton and Ethier (maybe even DeWitt as well). A big sticking point for me would be the ability to negotiate an extension. Heck even if they wouldn't, I'd still make the deal.

That's a really long way of saying I would give almost anyone not named Kemp, Chad, Martin, or Loney for Wells.

Me likey the Vernon Wells.

well. I want Matsazuka. Like... I want him 70 million alot.

Yeah, that's a lot of dough to throw at a guy who's never thrown a pitch in MLB.

Of course Vernon Wells has never thrown a pitch in MLB either.

It would be cool to have Matsuzaka, just to say we won the bidding. The contract, on the other hand...

120

i can see Bagwell with the Yanks

seriously though, if matsuauka comes to LA, its going to be Matsumania and the revenues gained from all Japanese/asian market will offset the posting fee IMO.

I would love to see Matsuzaka as a Dodger, but he seems to be a Mariner waiting to happen.

130 We agree then. Matsuzaka signs, and trade Kuo, Ethier, and DeWitt for Vernon Wells, whom we immediate sign to a five year extension.

I'll get the mustache on the phone and tell him to make it happen.

Not my boy DeWitt! Only if we got Ramirez would I consider that.

What do we need DeWitt for? We have LaRoche! And who cares about second base? Mr. Teeny can play second base!

Well LaRoche is our third baseman as of now. So DeWitt is still in our future.

The free agent rankings are out, but they seem to be listed using the old rules. Under the new system, the Dodgers don't look good, with only one type A free agent, Gagne.

http://tinyurl.com/yj84hv

True Blue L.A. has status of the rest of the Dodgers free agents under the new rules. (We call that a teaser.)

134 I thought I saw somewhere that the Mariners aren't interested in him.

Of course it would be ideal if we could trade for Wells and then sign him long-term, but how many players are willing to do that these days? I think it might take more than Kuo, Ethier, and Dewitt to do it too, I'm sure Toronto's looking for at least one grade A prospect while the three you mentioned probably range from B+ to B-.

I would give up Matt Kemp for Vernon Wells.

There, I said it.

After all, you're hoping that Matt Kemp turns into the player that Vernon Wells already is.

142 But Matt Kemp costs about 40 times less what Vernon Wells will come 2008.

143 I just felt like stirring the pot a bit. I likey the Vernon, but I'm afraid he'll be hugely overpaid when the time comes.

In a perfect world (okay, my perfect world), the Dodgers sign Zito, and trade a young pitcher to the Reds for Adam Dunn.

I am cool with Wells not with Dunn, his defense will kill us at some crucial time I can feel it.

I'll get the mustache on the phone and tell him to make it happen.

that's Flanders to you PAL! :o)

140
I have no idea where you heard that about the Mariners, because I have heard they want him big time. They have a connection with Japan second to none and they want to make Ichiro since he will be a free agent next year.

Yeah, I had heard the M's were in on Matsuzaka as well.

Yankees, Mariners, Cubs, Dodgers. Those would be my guesses, in descending order of probibility.

For a lot of the season after Ethier cracked the lineup and hit .340 or so, most folks here wouldn't have considered trading him. A slump late in the year, and now he's tradeable....what really changed?

IMO you don't trade young LH starters with Kuo's potential, period. (See Kazmir, Scott, formerly of the Mets.)

Broxton seems on the verge of dominating. Meloan seems to have great upside. Quality pitching is too hard to find to trade young guys like these.

Guess I'm just a deal breaker... ;-)

149

Ever since i heard how many innings his arm has i havent been interested in him.

Kuo has never been considered anything remotely close to the caliber of Kazmir. Ethier is not a corner outfielder on an upper echelon team. Nice player, not a corner outfielder. Hence, 3.5.

And oh...TINSTAAPP.

150
I have always been willing to trade Ethier this year for the right player. His value is so high right now that I think we can get a very good player back

The Suns do not miss!

153 Interesting to see Bynum in there. He's still such a youngster!

Now let's get my boy Farmar in there a little bit to run against the Suns.

154
That is really the only thing I have to look forward to in this game.

Woah, the Staples Center is really dark. Is that intentional...?

150 For what it's worth, I was always willing to trade him for a star or a high quality young player.

I screwed up the CBA, so I'll just list the Dodger's free agents here:

Type A:
Eric Gagne
Julio Lugo
Greg Maddux

Type B:
Nomar Garciaparra
Toby Hall
Kenny Lofton

No Compensation:
Joe Beimel
Ramon Martinez
Aaron Sele

156
They changed the lighting for Lakers game so that it is more like the Forum.

Farmar time!

farmar with his first nba assist to cookie.

Woohoo. His first foul!

when we get everyone healthy, lakers have a pretty deep team this year.

It's a dark time for the Lakers, and I'm not talking about the Staples Center lighting. For that matter, it's a dark time for the entire NBA.

163

you are pessimistic about everything so whatever.

yay only 6 pts down!!

I would like to see Evans get some more playing time.

i would liek to see vladrad not airball a jump shot.

163 I didn't even know the season started until today. Somebody told me the Lakers were on TV.

Here's the link for the info that the Mariners aren't seriously considering going after Matsuzaka:

http://tinyurl.com/y3j2l2

It's a Rotoworld blurb using the Seattle Times as a source

168
Yeah, I didn't know either.

169

heres the whole article

http://tinyurl.com/yknonl

169
Very interesting. I hate this waiting period.

Well then, where does that leave us? Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers. Unless the Mets are laying in the weeds, I don't see that. The Orioles are always a threat to throw money around. Angels need bats, not arms. Boston? I don't see it.

Darkhorse could be the Giants, with Barry/Schmidt savings, or even the Padres.

Steve Nash's hair looks different this year. Is he doing something different with his bangs...?

bynums going to be big sexy in a couple of years when he grows into his body.

Maybe I was wrong about Bynum.

His passing has been the most impressive part.

While watching poker:

"There's the flop, or as we like to call it, the Divac"

- Sklar Twins

Kid has got soft hands, unlike other big men

(I'm looking at you, Kwame Brown)

I'm going to miss Cheap Seats. When there is absolutely nothing else on, it gets a job done.

Kwame apparently did not drop a ball in pre-season before he got hurt.

Sorry Lakers, House is on. You lose!

I'm going to miss Cheap Seats

What do you mean...?

183 It got the axe. It's gone after December. Sklar brothers are staying with ESPN in some limited capacity, I believe.

184
Crap, are you serious? I hadn't heard that. Dang, that sucks. I love that show. I don't that understand that. Does ESPN Classic really have such high standards for ratings? That's BS. First Arrested Development, now Cheap Seats.

QUIT CONTROLLING WHAT I WATCH, POWERS THAT BE!!!

Today, when I was supposed to be doing work, I read the Orioles were taking a long serious look at Barry, thereby confirming a lot of people's suspicions that they are the stupidest franchise in baseball.

Man rages from cheap seats at the cancellation of Cheap Seats.

Seriously, nothing will ever hurt more than losing Arrested Development.

I MISS YOU, GOB BLUTH!

wow i cant believe bynum has 14 points.

Man, I am just in shock right now.

We don't need no stinkin' Kobe Bryant...

bynum is going to be an icon if he keeps this up.

I MISS YOU, GOB BLUTH!

COME ON!!!

If Bynum is even decent this season it is a huge boost.

It is Jordan Farmar Harlan! Stop calling him Justin!

192 "I've made a huge mistake..."

Two baskets in a row for Justin.

Yes, UCLA praise by Doug Collins.

195
"Me quick, want slow"

Radmanovic's hair looks ridiculous

Bynum is making me feel, right now, the way I felt about Matt Kemp when he was hitting all those homeruns.

Of course, like in baseball, the problem with young players, even talented ones, is that they're inconsistent. Lets hope that Bynum can put together a couple games like this in a row, especially against a team, you know, with a real center. Hopefully, his performance right now will convince Phil to give Bynum some playing time, which is what he, and all young players, really need.

Also, lets hope Farmar can be the Lakers' Russell Martin. He seems to have those intangible qualities along with a suprising amount of athleticism.

can we hold an 8 point lead?!?!?

vlads hair is pretty awesome. What a crazy euro he is. I just wish hed get the surgery now on his finger instead of waiting until the summer. it is clearly hurting him.

198
"It Ain't Easy Bein' White, It Ain't Easy Bein' Brown,"

202. all he needs is an awesome slavic beard ... he would become a better player immediately

omg euro made a jump shot.

How is a team where Lamar Odom is the only semi-widely known player beating a Suns team with Nash, Marion, Stoudemire, and Diaw?

To break from the Laker talk, for a second ... What are the chances the Dodgers get Matsuzaka? Does anyone have any information other than idle speculation. I would think it would be a nice chance for the McCourts to prove they're not cheap to those care about that kind of stuff, but that's just an opinion.

206

crazy euro hair magical powers.

203
Hey, I was gonna use that one!

"But still, where did the lighter fluid come from?"

I just do not see Ned making a big bid for him.

Trade Kobe Bryant for some defensive stoppers.

when i play beer pong i wear my odom jersey cause im a lefty.

it works im pretty good :)

207 For whatever reason it doesn't seem like a Ned move, too much risk involved and he doesn't seem like a guy who feels he has to make big splashes to win the public favor. I'm sure they'll make a respectable bid, but will get beat out by the Yankees.

203

"Why are you stuffing bread down your pants?"

"You have to feed the doves...That's how Tony Wonder lost a nut..."

I dont think we've seen enough of Ned to make those kind of generalizations ... not that you're wrong, I'm just willing to see what Ned does in a situation where he doesn't necessarily have to make a lot of moves. I really think the Matsuzaka situation is more about the ownership's willingness to spend a medium-sized fortune on a posting fee.

Does it seem unfair to anyone else the way the Japanese posting system works? Not only do you have to undoubtedly have to pay the player big bucks, but you have to pay a crapload of money just to talk to him. As if small-market teams need any more of a reason to complain about the order of things.

I am going to have to miss the beginning of Nip/Tuck good thing they replay it.

214
"...the "matriarch" if you will..."

218

"AND THAT'S WHY YOU ALWAYS...LEAVE...A NOTE!"

215 I agree it's not fair to immediately assume, I was just working off a hunch. Ned seems to do a pretty decent job of analyzing the risk/reward of the moves he makes. Sure his trades during the year generally didn't work out that well, but he didn't break the bank to get a crowd-pleaser like Soriano just to gain favor among the masses. Same thing with his free agent signings - he did a good job of not screwing the organization with long-term deals because no one out there seemed like a great investment. Same thing with Matsuzaka, it's too risky to put up the big bucks based on his workload and lack of experience in MLB action. I'm not saying I'd be mad if we won the bid, just that I don't expect it.

I love how Nash always drives to the hoop with absolutely no intention of actually shooting the ball. I don't think anyone in the NBA gets the same treatment when they're driving.

Hey, the Lakers are winning...Neat!

152 Apparently the Mets didn't consider Kazmir in Kazmir's class when they traded him... :-)

I'm not sure we've seen enough of Kuo to know what class he might be in. IMO he's shown enough flashes that you stick with him longer, get a better idea of his upside, especially since control may not be as much of an issue now. And he is a lefty.

Maybe the league adjusts to Ethier and he doesn't come close to .340 again. But is one rookie slump enough to decide he's not capable of being a corner OF? He sure looked like one a good part of the year. Wasn't he considered Oakland's #1 prospect?

And all top pitchers once were prospects...
(dodges tomatoes, gets off soapbox, slinks out door...)

220. That seems like a fair assessment. Im not expecting Matsuzaka to be pitching for the Dodgers next year either, just hoping.

Lakers...wow, I can't believe it. awsome.

Wow! Im a big Kobe fan, but It really seems like Lamar Odom is a completely different player without Bryant on the floor.

Most likely scenarios (???):

Matsuzaka: Yankees
Bonds: Angels/Giants
Zito: Yankees
Schmidt: Dodgers

223
Kazmir was Kazmir. Everybody knew it. Duquette was desperate to make the playoffs, and Peterson said he could "Fix Zambrano in ten minutes." Kuo is not Kazmir. Sorry, I wish he was too.

(Tears labrum and rotator cuff throwing tomatoes). "Who brings vegetables to these things?"

It really seems like Lamar Odom is a completely different player without Bryant on the floor

The knack on Kobe has long been that he doesn't make other players better. It seems to me that, for whatever reason, people just stand around and watch Kobe do his thing. I think they're more active when he's not in the game.

I would not trade Kuo right now. He's cheap, and his numbers as a starter were excellent. Low risk/high reward. Wait until his trade value (and salary demands) go up.

I am so excited right now, because this was so improbable.

230.

Same here, but who would actually wanna trade him?

223. Ethier was never Oaklands #1 prospect. He will also never hit .340 again ... you can't expect any hitter to hit .340. My guess is that he hits something like .290/.350/.475 next year, which is fairly nice from a solid outfielder with making 400 grand.

Ethier is a good trade idea if teams think he's an above average corner outfielder. Kuo's a good trade idea if teams think he can be a definite #3 starter. If we're not getting that kind of value for either of those players, then there's no reason to trade them because we wouldn't get enough back to justify the risk of either of them becoming superstars.

228 Sorry to learn of the severe injuries. Will you be back in the rotation by spring training, or maybe the all-star break at the latest?

That's the point. If people overvalue Kuo and Ethier (which I think they do), you could package them both for an impact player.

But to answer many of your concerns, I would not trade either of them for Shaun Cassidy album and four sets of socks.

235 Looks like a career ending tomato related injury for me.

Oh well, back to the circus.

236
What about James Taylor tickets?

238
I would trade Kuo for lifetime bakstage passes.

Oh, and a guitar. Oooh ooooh, I'd want some guitar straps too.

Yes, I would make that deal.

239.

Maybe if I can have that, but 2 guitars, a brand new Les Paul, and double necked SG. That, with starps, and every imagineable effect.

Buster Olney has 10 moves that should be made in the off-season.

#9 Dodgers sign Aramis Ramirez.

Buster Olney thinks that grounding out to second is a good thing.

He's also from Vermont.

233 Guess I was thinking of Ethier being '05 Texas League player of the year.

From Oakland's MLB site: "When Andre Ethier was traded to the Dodgers...Herrera essentially inherited Ethier's unofficial status as Oakland's top Minor League outfielder."

http://tinyurl.com/e6gdv

But "top minor league outfielder" and minor league awards don't necessarily translate to #1 prospect, I guess...

Agreed, you can't expect .340 from anyone. You just enjoy it while it lasts, if the guy's on your team...

He also was a Dodger fan he said growing up and then just started not liking them. Fairweather Olney.

While it is expensive to get the rights to negotiate with Matsuzaka, the entire posting fee is returned if the team is unable to reach an agreement with him. This by the way sounds totally unfair to the Japanese teams. It is the equivalent of Oakland trying to trade Mulder/Hudson for an arm and a leg, only to have them refuse to go without a huge contract signed before free agency. All that is to say, it only costs a lot if you actually sign him (to presumably a 5 year contract), it never costs anything not to sign him. Besides opportunity cost I guess, since I imagine that you wouldn't sign any other marquee FA while you are negotiating with him.

Paying for the right to negotiate with a Japanese owned player roughly correlates to having to trade a player(s) to an American team and then pay him a salary too. Like we'd have to trade Russell Martin to the Yankees for the privelege of paying A-rod $16M per annum. It would be interesting if we could work out an agreement to trade players between American and Japanese leagues but it will never happen.

I like Aramis Ramirez. Alot. But I sure hope Coletti isn't as ready to buy high and sell out the young guys so quick. What I'm about to say is colored by living in Braves territory: a lot of people here liked Betemit as much as we like Kemp. I don't know so much about that as he compares best to Grabs, but his stats with the Dodgers don't accurately reflect his abilities. He had a drop off just like Ramirez did when he went from the Pirates to the cubs. And then Ramirez learned more patience. I guess it seems to me that Betemit plays passable third and has the potential to be really good at a cheap rate. And we still need a CFer. If it would work out that we can get the CF, #1 pitcher, and Ramirez, then fine. But 3B would not be my primary concern.... then again Coletti went out and got Furcal.

Man the Pirates organization is pretty sad, isn't it?

I think the Angels are a better bet to snag Ramirez, but it does sound like the Dodgers will make a play for him at least. I'd rather us get a top pitcher and another OFer, but he'd certainly be a big upgrade over what we had last season, Betemit's potential or no.

The best news last night as far as I'm concerned was the play of Andrew Bynum! I hope he plays well enough that the Lakers don't even think of having Kwame start when he comes back. Bynum and Mihm works for me.

102 Uncle Miltie, I heard there was a shooting at a Halloween festivity in SF. Was that the part at the Castro you were going to?

Uh, make that party, with a y.

250- I have no idea, I've been asleep since 6 last night. I just got my flu shot over the weekend too. Just a little late...

That flu shot probably made you sick. Everytime I get the shot, it gets me sick. Everytime I dont get the shot, I come out ok for the season.

252 & 253

do you guys have asthma? because i asked my doctor about getting a flu shot but he told me "only asthma people" get the flu shot.

Matt Kemp will be playing for the Estrellas of the dominican winter league this according to ESPNdeportes.

That's like me and antibiotics, everytime I take them they give me flu-like symptoms. Aren't these things supposed to make you healthier?

Does anybody know where to find up to date stats for the Dominican Winter League baseball to follow guys like Kemp and Loney?

Also, who other than those two is playing in non-US winter leagues?

New post (finally) up top.

257 - Try maybe MILB.com or Baseball America.