Your analysis of the Giants' needs is great... "Um, almost everything..."!

i think i got banned, oh well.

Bluebleeder87 peace out.

This might be in the last thread, but it seems the Red Sox have reportedly won the bid for Matsuzaka and the winning bid was between 38-45 million. Which is to say, the Sox paid more money than Drew was going to get for the rest of his contract just for the rights to try and sign him. This bid screams "Block the Yankees" and I wonder if the Sox will try to play hard ball to sign him.

Bluebleeder, I need you to e-mail me if you want to continue posting on the site.

will do Jon.

Jon, I don't have time to make an actual post right now but here's the info you were looking for:

Drew was 63rd in VORP over the last two years, and he made the 17th most salary. When you cut out the players who don't have actual contracts, he was 17 highest paid out of 40. Drew's defense narrows the gap considerably, but it terms of pure offensive contributions, he was probably over paid relative to the market.

6 - Interesting.

So, I linked your Nationals' capsule over at a Nationals' chat site and it drew this comment:

Patterson, Smoke and pray for a hail of artichokes.

I like it.

A quick and dirty slice of VORPs and $ from Drew-like performers to follow reg's 6. From BP, Drew was ranked 59 in VORP this year (position players only). I looked at the VORP for 2005-2006 for the number #50-80 players from 2006 to find comparable performers over the last two seasons. Salaries are from COTS.

Name_____05+06=VORP for 05-06 salary
Drew_____26.9+34.9 = 61.8 for $22m
Overbay__23.5+36.3 = 59.8 for $3m
Renteria__19.6+37.6 = 57.2 for $18m
Ibanez___29.3+37.8 = 67.1 for $8.6m
Barrett___28.1+31.3 = 59.4 for $8m
Lugo_____42.8+31.3 = 74.1 for $8.2m
Alou_____41.9+27.9 = 69.8 for $13.25m

I wouldn't use this small sample to argue that Drew was definitely overpaid but it gives an interesting snapshot against a few other names. Drew is not quite in Lugo's class, but I thought I would include him anyway for comparison.

Per Baseball Daily, it appears that Gary Sheffield is now a Tiger:

The New York Yankees announced today that they have acquired right-handed pitcher Humberto Sanchez, right-handed pitcher Kevin Whelan and right-handed pitcher Anthony Claggett from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for outfielder Gary Sheffield.

How much does Sheffield have left on his contract? On just talent, that deal looks like a steal for the Tigers even if Sheff can only DH.

From BBC:

Cricket: England thrashed
England lose by 166 runs to the Prime Minister's XI in the first game of their tour of Australia.

Um, what's that in baseball runs?

11 - They extended him for 2 years, I'd guess at his current $13M salary.

Why do these types of articles always go NL East -> NL Central -> NL West instead of the other way around? Isn't left to right more logical?

9 I don't think it's useful to use Drew's 2005 VORP to assess his value anymore than using Hideki Matsui's 2006. Better to use EQA or OPS with a minimum PA cutoff and he'll sit among the $15M/yr guys.

11 - Not so sure about that. They basically signed a 38-year old Gary Sheffield to a 3 year deal, possibly worth as much as $40M, and gave up 3 pitchers, at least one of which (Humberto Sanchez) looks to have a very bright future.

Now, the Tigers had pitching to spare so it doesn't necessarily hurt them too much. But they now have a lot of cash tied up in Maggs, Pudge, and Sheff for multiple years.

The Yanks come out nicely, IMO. They won't miss Sheff due to Abreu's presence. Plus they can just go out and buy whatever offense they need to supplement what they would get from Sheff next year. They really just need to add a 1B.

Is Kenny Rogers coming back to the Tigers?

That's a clubhouse duo to love.

The previews are fun, and it had the side benefit of getting me to the SI site to renew my soon-to-expire subscription.

I've been a continuous subscriber since about 1975. Out of idle curiosity, who else here gets the magazine? Has anyone switched to ESPN: The Magazine?

18 - I (or my Dad) have been getting it all my life.

15 I'm not sure I agree. Rate stats are useful to forecast the type of production measured in counting stats that a player would have given a full season. Sooner or later you also have to look at the cumulative counting stat performance not just the potential that lies in the rate stats. If we select 500 PA as a minimum cut-off expected from a starting position player (especially a team star), then Drew would miss the cut for almost half of his major league seasons. Drew's inability to stay on the field is important to consider but would be overlooked if I just told you that Drew has a career OPS of 905. In Drew's case, it's probably more appropriate to use 2005-2006 VORP than most because he seems to have a history of on year-off year. Drew is now an 8 year vet. From a production standpoint, I'd be interested to compare his R, H, XBH, HR, RBI, BB or VORP with others that have an OPS of around 900 over the same time period.

None of this really matters because I don't think he'll have any problem finding a suitor that will focus on last season and his year with ATL and overlook the negatives given the other FA options available

18 I have been getting SI all my life and a friend has been passing on ESPN: The Magazine for the last few months. ESPN is just like its television shows if that makes sense.

i think its a good deal for both team.

tigers have a surplus of pitching prospects and Andrew Miller is on the cusp of coming up to the bigs. they needed a impact hitter and when healthy, sheff is as impact as they come. And I think sheff should be fully healthy after a winter to recover.

I like it for the yanks because it adds to their stable of young arms. Hughes, clippard and sanchez are a very intriging set of upper system arms that have the chance to help the yanks next year.

Now hopefully the tigers can put aside that silly idea of dealing bondo for tex. Good trade for both teams. it accomplishes goals set by both teams.

15/20 - It depends greatly on what you're looking for. Are you looking to evaluate or to predict?

23 I'm not convinced it's an either or issue between evaluation/prediction. My point was that rate stats have proven fairly useful for predicting future performance but given a large enough body of work, you begin to see trends in counting stats that are masked or averaged out if rate stats are the only based for judgement. bigcpa's mention that he wouldn't use Matsui's 2006 VORP provides a great example. I wouldn't use it either because Matsui's previous body of work in NY and Japan showed a consistent performer who rarely ever missed a start. I can't say the same for Drew.

based = basis

Anybody heard a thing about Juan Pierre? Seems to be a little overlooked so far...granted Furcal is firmly planted at lead off and we need a big bat more, but more speed never hurt a team.

With extra money with Drews opt out, seems to me he'd be an excellent upgrade over old man lofton. Plus hes one of my favs and never hurt, more AB's than anyone in the league last yr.

26 Juan Pierre would not be a fruitful line of discussion. Trust me. Not a lot of Juan Pierre fans around here, I'm sure.

26 I don't think Pierre is as highly regarded since his OBP dropped to .320-.330 over the last two seasons.

if the cubs cant sign aramis, that leaves them a gaping hole at 3rd to go with other problems they have including lack of positional (or any) prospects ready to make a immediate impact.

it could open a door for a trade. Zambrano is a free agent after 07 season and they might not be able to keep him...

Penny + laroche/betemit + dewitt...could that get us Zambrano?

One week of Juan Pierre and we will begging for Kenny Lofton to retire.

We'd be begging for Tom Goodwin to come out of retirement.

I'll take your word for it, but if Repko is the everyday center fielder and bats .240 with 13 stolen bases next year, I'll be placing the blame on this discussion right here.

That should have been one week of Juan Pierre and we'd be begging for Kenny Lofton to return.

I will personally order Juan Pierre run over by a bus in favor of Jason Repko starting in centerfield.

Hey wait a second...doesn't Jim Edmonds play CF?

34

hes staying with the cards on a 2yr extension.

33. I'll carry out that order. Juan Pierre is awful. It's true that a little more speed doesn't hurt, other things equal. Which is to say, "if Ryan Howard were also fast, he'd be better than he is now."

But in this case, other things are nowhere near equal. The problem is that you'd have to give Pierre a roster spot, see, and several plate appearances. Shudddddddder.

31 A great time to bring out the rate stats to predict Jason Repko's performance next year (in a kindergarten level analysis--I'm writing this out on construction paper with a Sedona red crayon).

Last year Repko had about 150 PA. Assuming a similar level of performance next year, then 600 PA yields 40 XBH, 60 RBI, 80 R, 40 SB. Will it happen? Who knows, but it would certainly be worth $350K.

Alright, I'll lay off the Pierre talk, but why such hatred towards the guy?

38 Probably because he doesn't get on base enough, is Slappy McGee, gets caught swiping bags too much, and his a terrible defender.

Those would be my guesses.

37

You'd also have to figure about 250 flyball misjudgements over the course of 162 games.

Which would actually be about 50 less misjudgements from Lofton's 2006.

39

But he writes his initals in the dirt before every bat. That's something.

Sorry about the condemnation there, EJM, but I don't think there's another player that could inspire such SABR hatred.

Well, unless you count the disdain for David Eckstein...From me.

38. It's not hatred (the bus of which Steve speaks is metaphorical). He might be the best guy ever. It's disdain for his skills as a baseball player.

37 would be worth $350K and 40 would be getting what you paid for.

EJM, I'm not a hater of Juan Pierre but rather just a fan of the 2003-2004 Juan. And then I was more a fan of the Juan and Luis Castillo show when you had a 1-2 combo with speed and OBPs .360-.380. That was fun to watch (lived in SoFla at the time).

Jack Palance has died.

Juan Pierre has the smallest head in the majors. He's the only guy who wears a cap under his batting helmet. He has to make sure it stays on.

See, it's not all about stats. I base it on phrenology.

I said I would stop with the Pierre talk, but first I need to clear something up. Greg Brocks assessment that he is a "terrible defender" completely misses the mark. Although it can be misleading, the guy didn't have an error last year, playing in 162 games. He may not be the best, but lets take it easy with terrible.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4486&context=fielding

Kenny Lofton only had three errors.

If the ball is hit in the right-center field gap, and you run towards Tahiti, it's not an error.

48 Errors are pretty much the worst measure of defensive ability. How many times does even the worst outfielder drop a ball? Not many. Outfielders need to be measure on the plays that they can make, and advanced defensive metrics make Pierre out to be a below average to average defender.

48 - He also had a 101 rate2, which is decent enough.

In a throwing contest between Kenny Lofton and Juan Pierre, the distance that each man could throw the ball on the fly could be measured with a caliper.

51 Rate2 doesn't factor in how often runners advance on you because you have zero arm, or how many bad routes you run.

Between Kenny Lofton and Juan Pierre, I'm surprised those guys even find the stadium.

Right, thats why I said misleading...but terrible! Manny, thats terrible. Carlos Lee, terrible. Pierre's not in that class.

52 Yup, that.

50 - Also, his sissy little arm rarely caroms off runners or bases for those type of OF errors.

Centerfield terrible is much more detrimental to your team than LF or RF terrible.

53 It does factor in bad routes, because more bad routes would result in less balls caught.

I get SI. Compelling photography.

And their Tillman reporting was Pulitzer worthy. It's still on line and easy to find if you want to read about a fascinating and not simple dude.

Gadzooks, Gary Matthews Jr. had seven errors.

Would it be considered being duped by overrated big names if I wanted Jim Edmonds on the dodgers? Not that I think he's the best offensive player ever, but I'll take his ok offense with his incredible defense. And to keep Kenny Lofton from coming back. Then I'd trade a package including Penny, and Kemp to Toronto for Vernon Wells, and play Ethier in left.

58 I thought about that the second that I hit submit. I even knew it would be you to call me on that.

61 I'd like Edmonds, but he just signed a two year extension.

Alright, I'm done, there's no winning for me in this one, too much antipathy in here for my boy Pierre. I'll go find another available centerfielder to piss you guys off with.

Tonight, right before an all new Numb3rs, catch everyone's favorite new superhero show. Juan Pierre, Possibly Average Fielding Centerfielder.

64
Find a centerfielder with a bigger hat size.

That's all I ask.

Man all this talk about $15-$17mm contracts makes the Furcal signing of last season look rather ordinary.

66
Maybe Colleti can convince Rosie to play CF then, turned out to be pretty good in A League of Their Own.

It's been too crazy at work to post lately. I've been witnessing the newspaper equivalent of the Iraq war. Tribune is playing the role of the U.S. army and the Times is the Iraqi insurgency. If my mortgage wasn't an interested party it would be fascinating to watch.

69 Yes, but who is playing the role of the Iran...Is it Geffen?

The Iran...Good lord, that's almost like The Google.

Ned needs Neds from the future to fax him what free agents to sign.

63.

Woah, I missed that. Darn. That sucks, now what should we do.

And yes, my mortgage is a living, breathing thing...

Apparently, Bill Walsh has leukemia.

If the Burkle/Broad deal goes through I'm hoping my Ralph's card will be honored in the cafeteria.

My Tiger fan friend/coworker's reaction when I broke the news to him that the Tigers had just acquired Sheffield was as if I'd told him his mom had died.

"I seriously hate that {{expletive}}," was his response.

Basically, he's been an excellent hitter but is so Me First that his welcome has been worn out everywhere he's gone. The Tigers didn't give up much to acquire him and he may give them some offense but after a year they'll be regretting it nonetheless.

77 Can we guess what the expletive was?

I'm sure Jon wouldn't mind...I'll go first...

I kid.

68 That was Madonna, Rosie was on third base.

78 I just figured using imagination is always more fun than seeing it spelled out, but if you must know, it's probably somewhere in Tommy Lasorda's Dave Kingman tirade.

I'm assuming that the Drew discussion has migrated to the later post.

I'm trying to get my head around why exactly DePo agreed to a deal that seems so completely favorable to the player. The possible scenarios were as follows:

Drew has two good years, opts out of contract – Advantage Drew.
Drew has two disappointing and/or injury-racked years, still has his big contract – Advantage Drew.
Drew has two decent but not great years, opts out, the market is weak, signs again with the Dodgers for less money – Advantage Dodgers.

If you're going on the assumption that DePo knew what he was doing, you have to assume that all he really wanted was two years of Drew, and he was certain (a) they'd be good years and then (b) Drew would inevitably opt out. But you look at the possible downside of this: Drew blows up for some reason and the Dodgers have to eat a big contract. But then again, that would be the case even if it was a conventional contract. So what DePo was actually surrendering in the deal is the possibility that the back end would be a big Advantage Dodgers, i.e., that by the end of the term of his contract they'd be getting him for below market value. What makes us think this is a bad deal is that we're keeping the risk of getting stuck with a bad deal without the possible advantage of getting an extraordinarily good deal. What DePo had to have been thinking was that the risk of Drew underperforming throughout the period of the contract was as low as you can expect in a risk-oriented business, and that if he was bad in the first two years he might well be good in the last three. So, you have to assume the thinking was, I want him for two years, there's a 75% (or whatever) chance that he will opt out, and if he doesn't that's something I can live with.

Either that or DePo's stupid.

Category mistake

So what's the latest on Matsuzaka? I've heard he's property of the Red Sox. Then I heard Rangers. Then I heard Yankees, definitely Yankees. Damn these early hot stove rumors!

Whatever it is, obvious that the Dodgers are not part of the chase (which we all pretty much figured anyway). He's going to be $o expensive, but also unhittable.

81 - asked and answered, Robert. Check the earlier comments.

29 - Carlos Zambrano fired Scott Boras. Take that as you will.

84 - Wasn't really a question. More like thinking out loud. I did read a number of the comments, but I'm not going to go over 400 of them with a fine-toothed comb. To the fellows who made the points before they became redundant, I agree with you.

77 If healthy, Sheff will thrive under Leyland as he did in Florida. They seem to have the same no-nonsense approach to communication and a two year stint is a perfect duration. Unless that wrist pops while he's wagging his bat, the heart of their order is talented. It gets even better if there is an improvement in Ordonez' numbers as he gets another year past his injury.

81 You're assuming the contract was written that way at DePo's request; far more likely The Evil Boras insisted on it. At least one of his other clients had a similar deal. Depo probably had no choice but to accept it IF he wanted Drew. Maybe the clubs should set up their contracts so the club has the option to opt out after two or three years if the player becomes a turkey. Players probably wouldn't accept that. Better to sugar coat it like this: We'll use Drew's contract numbers as an example, 5 years for $55M. Structered this way: Years 1 and 2, payment is $13M per year; year three pays $11M; years 4 and 5 net player $9M per year. Mutual no-buyout option after three years. Player likes contract because he gets a couple of million a year more than he expected for first two years. If the player plays great, he can opt out after 3 years. If he tanks, club can dump him after three years and cut their loses. Same idea as on Furcal's contract except club has a little more leverage.

87 - a two year stint is a perfect duration.

Unfortunately they're paying him for 3...

89 missed that, thanks blue. still think its a good move for the next two years with their pitching and lineup. we'll see what fun 2009 brings.

This is why I love Grady Little.

from Dodgers.com
Little, sitting in the stands at Phoenix Municipal Stadium prior to the AFL game between the Mesa Solar Sox -- which includes several Dodgers prospects -- and the Phoenix Desert Dogs, tried to find a silver lining to the situation.

"He has a nice home there in Pasadena," he said. "What I'll do now is ask him if I can rent it from him this year."

Grady Little is great, now he can live in JD's nice house and not have to worry about watching him strike out looking in big situations anymore. Sounds like a great situation for old Grady.

Poor Grady. He would be forgiven if he had a "I worked so hard to protect him this year and THIS is the thanks I get!?" reaction...

Why not take a look at Trot Nixon (kind of a poor man's JD Drew anyway)? It'd be fitting to basically swap Drew for Nixon, since Boston appears to be a front-runner for JD.

Maybe the third time publishing this will be the charm.

J.D. Drew's on-base percentage and slugging in 2006:

Runners on: .406/.486
Scoring position: .421/.480
Runners on, two out: .459/.570
Scoring position, two out: .437/.471
Man on third, less than two out: .426/.529
Close and late: .397/.533 (results in the 7th inning or later with the batting team either ahead by one run, tied or with the potential tying run at least on deck.)

Drew struck out, swinging or looking, 55 times in more than 300 plate appearances with runners on, or about once every five trips. That ratio more or less holds in the other categories.

If one watched J.D. Drew during his 146 games this season, in real time, on real fields, with varying game pressure, that's what one would have seen.

93 That seems like more of a Sonny reaction. I see Grady as more of a Hyman Roth.

"I had a kid, yeah, he was good, and that kid decided to opt out. I didn't ask questions, because I understood that was the nature of the business. And there isn't a monument, or a sign...That kid's name was J.D. Drew."

96
Thankfully, no one has put a bullet in Alex Rocco's eye so far.

95-
I could be wrong this but I'm pretty sure my memory is pretty close. He struck out 37 of those 55 times looking...in those 37 the game was tied(or at least close) with 2 outs...and the rest of the stats were when the game was out of reach one way or the other.

Like I said, I'm not positive, but pretty sure about that.

You know, 88, that was actually a question I had that I didn't ask: Where did the initiative come from on this rather unorthodox structure? Did Boros propose it or did DePo offer it? Does anyone have any actual information?

Even if Boros made the proposal, DePo didn't have to take it. I would be willing to bet the response of at least 25 GMs would have been, "Are you crazy?"

I must say though, that I am shocked that you are still discussing a question that has already been asked and answered. I mean, I'm just a schlemiel who doesn't read the comments, but you . . .

The opt out clause was initiated by Scott Boras. There would be no reason to give a player an opportunity to opt out of his contract from a GM's perspective. It's something the player/agent wants.

Aramis Ramirez wants six years...

Uh, no thanks.

97 I have heard Alex Rocco on a couple of commentaries of Simpsons' episodes (he voiced "Itchy and Scratchy" cartoon producer Roger Meyers, Jr.) Rocco said a great thrill was having his voice recognized by a young girl in a market who said to her mom, that sounds like the guy who runs "Itchy and Scratchy" on the Simpsons.

99 You must shock easy. The point is still being discussed although there really is no point to it.

So call me a schlemiel; won't bother me at all. You commented on the subject in 81; I commented to your comment in 89; What's the problem?

103 - I wasn't picking on you, I was needling Jon. Read it over again, I'm the schlemiel, not you.

100 - I never knew that, though it was probably because I wasn't paying attention. I could imagine an exchange where the agent says, "We were really looking for more money," and the GM says, "Well, would you like it any better if we structured it this way?"

How many contracts have there been like this, with a one-way commitment from the club?

It's wishful thinking, but how nice would it be to wake up tomorrow and see todays headlines replaced with Tomko...

" 'Tomko' likely ends tenure with the Dodgers"
" 'Tomko' surprises LA, becomes free agent"

Wow, that would be a great Saturday morning.

104 - I'm sorry if I sounded obnoxious in my comment, Robert. I didn't mean to, I just didn't feel like chasing down what I had written earlier today, either.

Say what you want, but I'm just really happy that we're at the point where we're not saddled with some cancerous contracts, ala Dreifort, Hundley, et. al.

I just really like the payroll flexibility. I can live with Drew leaving town.

UN High Commission For the Protection of Schlemeils is watching this thread and there may be some blue helmeted guys walking through.

78: Today, washingtonpost.com ran an excerpt from a returning marine's (or maybe soldier's) book about life in Iraq, grunt's eye view of the war type of the war thing.

And they used [expletive deleted] for a profanity that one can assume started with f, but left in the actual full word of a profanity that started with s.

Must've been a long editors' meeting to sort that one out.

108 And where is the UNHCPS headquartered?

110

It's ad hoc and based wherever it needs to be.

111 Kind of like the BCS, I assume.

109 Dollars to donuts that was Dan Froomkin's column:
http://washingtonpost.com/whbriefing

A daily read of mine, he is one of the best and most honest media critics around.

113: Yup.

33- Oh that's your solution to everything, run him over with a bus. Kid doesn't do his homework, run him over with a bus. Dog tears up the sofa, run him over with a bus. If you were in charge of the world, bus driver insurance would be more expensive than diamonds. And then how would guys with DUIs get to and from their court ordered therapy? Huh? Did you ever think of that, Mr. Run Him Over With a Bus?

113
Whenever people talk about the war in Iraq, my mind always goes back to Henry Kissinger and Chairman Mao. When Kissinger asked Mao if he thought the French Revolution was a good thing or a bad thing, Mao paused, thought for awhile, and answered, simply, "Too soon to tell."

I don't know why that always comes to mind, but it does.

116 Trouble is, my knee-jerk reaction to Kissinger is "whatever he says, he's lying." So I'm not sure that's really from Mao.

I heard a similar thing about someone talking to Gandhi, asking him about Western Civilization. Gandhi's reply is supposed to have been on the order of "it would be nice if it happened."

117
You should grab a drink with Christopher Hitchens sometime.

118- I'd steer away from the Gandhi quotes, though, if you do end up drinking with Hitch. He's favorably disposed to the Orwell line $about saints being presumed guilty till proven innocent. And, presumably, the rest of that essay.

119

Chris Hitchens is the guiding light for all contrarians. Show me the best person in the world, and I'll tell you why he's a fraud.

120- Okay; best person in the world: Vin Scully.

(Now let's see if we can get the second regular in as many days to light himself on fire in the comments section)

Correct that the Dodgers will get draft picks for Drew?

Nate, any estimates on how many compensatory draft picks the Dodgers will get this offseason?

Near as I can tell, Lugo/Garciaparra/Drew would bring them a few.

In addition to the questions in 122, if anybody knows, do we still lose our compensatory picks if Colletti stocks up on FAs of his own? Would we lose both, for a Type A, or only the actual pick, not the sandwich one?

And then how would guys with DUIs get to and from their court ordered therapy?

In a free, rational market, Julio Lugo would be driving them.

Lugo: time for your court appearance.

Furcal: Shotgun!

Lugo: You're the only other one going.

125- What's so beautiful about that is that D4P doesn't get why it's funny. Bravo!

121 I could make the argument, I could cite examples, and I may be correct, but there is no way in hell that you get me to besmirch Vin Scully on this board.

But I could do it. I could totally make the case.

Is the consensus here that the Dodgers will get some sore of compensation pick or picks for Lugo? Seems like there is enough interest in him that they can risk offering arbitration, no?

128 Yeah, there's no way Lugo would accept. I'm sure he doesn't want to be a bench player again, and several teams need shortstops.

The congressional GOP team was eviscerated on Tuesday. Lugo is at least good enough to be a defensive replacement. I wonder where he is on a capital gains tax cut. I would guess "pro."

127- Next time you get drunk, I'll see if I can't get it out of you. I wonder if they'll be able to get Chevy Chase to play your part in the consequent Law and Order episode.

128- I think that's the consensus. If, by some weird star crossed happenstance Lugo did accept arbitration, moving Furry to CF might not even seem as weird as it did back when you were agitating for it. Which would infuriate Steve, but, well, there are worse things that could happen. Although, I don't think there's any much chance he'd take arbitration. Lugo isn't that bad. He's got to be better than most major league shortstops. If The 'Stache blows this year's draft pick acquisitions, I'm going to have to think twice about not hating him.

131 Vin Scully is responsible for all the wars in the world.

According to a new article, service in Iraq leads to higher instances of ALS.

Of course, the article also states that the research is "limited and inconsistent", so you know, it doesn't really make for good science.

In other news, reading the newspaper leads to the bubonic plague, though the research is limited and inconsistent.

128 Is the consensus here that the Dodgers will get some sore of compensation pick or picks for Lugo?

Mmmmm... sores of compensation....

Between Buster Olney's "Maybes", and the Associated Press's "Limited and Inconsistent", I'm a bit dismayed.

Maybe we can just stick to the Who, What, When, Where, Why, and How...You know...reporting stuff.

My regret on Drew is that I was rooting for him to get 100 RBI. Now I wish that Kent didn't run through the stop sign and score.

Now I wish that Little would have played him everyday and ran his knees into the ground. Played him like other 30 yr olds and see if he could handle it.

Why do I say that? I remember reading not too long ago that Drew said he had the option in his contract because he wasn't sure if he would like it in LA. He wanted to see if his family would like the life style. Now, after being here for 2 yrs they like it here...(and other positive things said)...

His decision to leave was as surprising as his decision to try to score behind Kent in the ALDS against the Mets.

This so called 5 tool player has 3 SB in the past 2 years! Why is that? Afraid of hurting a knee or is it just that those strawberries hurt too much?

What's so beautiful about that is that D4P doesn't get why it's funny. Bravo!

I'm assuming it's from your little "The Office" show.

137 You'll be so much happier when you decide to watch The Office.

One theme I note in the comments is a tendency to demonize Scott Boras, as if he were some kind of Svengali brainwashing players who would otherwise take less money and make decisions based on loyalty and love of the game. Players hire Scott Boras for a reason, and taking the heat for getting as much money as humanly possible may just be part of the service Boras provides.

One thing a lot of people don't realize about rich people is they don't live on the money they make, they live on the interest on the money they make. That's why sums that seem astronomical to us are not enough for them when even more astronomical sums are available. When George Bush said "I've got political capital and I'm going to spend it," he was demonstrating that he didn't even understand the beliefs of his own people -- you never spend capital if you can help it.

138
I'm not ruling it out. I don't like "fads" or getting caught up in popular stuff. If I ever watch it, it will be toward the end of its run (e.g. Scrubs).

But really: what does The Office (not to be confused with The Google or The Iran) have to offer that hasn't been covered by stuff like Dilbert, Office Space, etc....?

140 I'm not going to explain why The Office is so wonderful.

The fact that Jon, Bob, Andrew, and the loveable Greg Brock think so highly of the show should be enough.

And, I'm an AD fan, like you. I suffered through the pain of losing the Bluths, and I'm telling you that The Office, while not as loveable, is a worthy substitute.

140, 141

Having to explain why The Office is great is like having to explain why Kenny Lofton is a poor defensive player or why Vin Scully is a great announcer. Just watch. You'll catch on quickly.

140- If you lived even a little closer, Brock and I would kidnap you, and then hogtie you in front of a t.v. (his t.v., specifically; I don't need any more blood on my carpet) and fix this whole problem within two episodes.

And then we'd make you eat two spoonfulls of dog food, mixed in spaghetti. Just for kicks.

I've seen some of the british version of The Office on DVD which was quite entertaining. Has anyone seen both versions--does the US version compare favorably? And is the material new or just a reshoot of the prior scripts?

131

I still think that down the road Furcal could be a good CF if he wanted to be and believe his defensive skills at SS, which I though were being overly praised, will erode a bit in the next two years. But I will no longer agitate on this subject, unless one of his throws conks someone in the first-base seats.

I can't imagine explaining Arrested Development to anybody.

See, there's this family. One brother is in charge, but he's completely self conscious and damaged. He has two other brothers: One is a Segway riding magician, the other has been in college for 15 years, and wants to have subconscious intercourse with his mother...He also dates Liza Minelli. They have a sister; She's married to a closeted therapist, who has decided to become an actor (he's also a NeverNude).

The sane brother has a son who wants to marry his cousin. And the Patriarch loves jail made ice cream sandwiches.

141 - The Office has risen above AD in my mind. I'm ready to take the road as an Officevangelist.

https://screenjam.baseballtoaster.com/archives/552377.html

So as not to offend Xeifrank.

D4P, I will Netflix the first two seasons of The Office, and mail them to your house, provided you will then send them back to Netflix.

I'm putting in all the work here, just to show you what a great show The Office is.

Deal?

144- I've seen both and am of the opinion that the U.S. version is superior. Much of the first season was retrofitted from the British version, but, after that very little has been. The American version is less cartoonish, and less uncomfortable, I find. Less cruel. The American version of Ricky Gervais's character is less completely hopeless. He's an emotional cripple, and all that good stuff, but his life doesn't make me want to kill myself. The Jim/Pam dynamic is much better than the Dawn/Keith(?) one. In the first place, Pam is actually very good looking, and funny, and nice.

I know Marty does, or used to, take the opposite position, and I also know that his judgment is generally to be preferred over mine. But I think he's wrong on this one.

IT'S A TRAP! He just wants your address, D4P. You give it to him, he'll be on the next plane out, and you won't have me to be the good cop.

151 I thought we were in on this together...

The fact that Jon, Bob, Andrew, and the loveable Greg Brock think so highly of the show should be enough.

It should be, but I guess it's not.

If you lived even a little closer

As it turns out, I'm debating whether to apply for a position at UCLA. It's a good program, but I hate LA, and it's expensive, and I'd probably have to drive everywhere, which I don't want to do.

The Office has risen above AD in my mind

Absence makes the heart grow fonder, but I guess it doesn't have the same effect on the mind.

Deal?

Or No Deal.

Maybe Manny Acta to manage the Nationals. (Seems to be the reporting style of the day.)

http://tinyurl.com/wqqtv

152- You cross state lines, it becomes a federal case, dummy. I'm down with a little county time, but you want to end up in Lompoc, you're on your own.

Gollybob, you peoples make me laugh.

D4P: You've got to get in on The Office. Trust these people.

But just this once.

The episode of The Office that will air Nov. 30 was written by the creators of the British original, Ricky Gervais and Stephen Merchant. I'm really looking forward to that.

The funny thing:

My wife tried to get me to watch Scrubs a few years ago, but I rebelled. I started watching it after one of my female friends kind of forced me to. My wife got jealous.

My wife tried to get me to watch The Office last year, but I rebelled. (She doesn't watch it, but has seen it and thought it funny). If I watch it now because of you guys, well, that might be the last straw. I suppose I could let her think she was the one who convinced me to watch it...

It's great that this has turned into a discussion of The Office, because when I read Jon's post title earlier today, I thought of the "Hate Crime" episode (Todd Packer leaves a "package" in Michael's office) when Creed enters the room, sniffs and says, "Somebody makin' soup?"

(Forty-seven word sentence up there. Eat yer hearts out.)

I am now watching the Producer's Cut of last night's episode (http://www.nbc.com/The_Office/).

Join me in the Screen Jam thread if you'd like to chat more about it.

This is the "The Hunt for Red October" principle. I have a friend that refuses to watch the movie, simply because he's been told how good it is, and has held out on watching it. I'm convinced he'll never see it, as long as he lives.

158- I need to attract the kind of female friends you have. The only things my female friends have forced on me are The Bell Jar and The G-d of Small Things and Beloved. Which, well, I'd just as soon have watched an According to Jim marathon, like Bob does on his days off.

I'm going to start doing Director's cuts of my Dodger Thoughts posts. Example:

Regular Post:I really think the Dodgers need to sign Zito.

Director's cut: See, when I said that the Dodgers need to sign Zito, I was thinking about the fragile nature of the starting staff, and about how much a durable lefty starter would help the squad. I initially had more to say, but the I really thought the minimalist nature of my post was an homage to Cinema Verite.

Great! We've been needing a new addition to Jon's TYFN list.

:-)

165 Thank you for not doing Director's cuts of your posts?

I've never heard anyone say "The Hunt for Red October" was worthy of such adoration.

Exactly. (Please note that I'm kidding.)

167 No, but it's a pretty good movie, and it's just come to the point where my friend would rather die than watch the movie...He's just held out for so long, actually watching the movie would be surrender on his part.

D4P's refusal to watch The Office is a Hunt for Red October situation.

160- If I recall correctly, the DT record for sentence length in a comment is 117. I should have bookmarked the thread; it occurred to me when it happened, but I was distracted, probably by something shiny. Anyway, I'm pretty sure about the number. It was quite a thing.

170

There were some people who dropped in and gave us some polemics. I remember a few massive posts, retelling the history of baseball and the world, where I just said, "Uh, no thanks, I'll wait for the movie."

One-seventeen is quite the challenge. Who holds this impressive record?

D4P wrote:
As it turns out, I'm debating whether to apply for a position at UCLA. It's a good program, but I hate LA, and it's expensive, and I'd probably have to drive everywhere, which I don't want to do.

As you know, I work at UCLA, and I drive my car about once every two weeks, and never to campus. There's plenty of housing within biking distance. Of course, it's quite expensive. But even when I was in an apartment, I biked in. For one thing, the weather is almost always great. On those few days when it's not, all bus lines go to UCLA (or so it seems).

There are reasons to hate LA and UCLA, but driving does not have to be one of them.

I'm a firm believer that Vespa scooters were invented by a UCLA student. If you can grab a scooter, it makes life so much easier.

Not that I would ride a Vespa...

172- That's the thing. It's an alphanumeric code that probably means something to the guy who picked it, but doesn't lend itself to remembering. PD something. Like PD5010, but I'm pretty sure that's not right.

If he's in the audience tonight, he could chime in and make it easier to hunt down, so we could tease him about it. . .

UCLA is going to be like the new University of Chicago, except instead of breading neo-cons, it'll bread Colletti-hating Drew-lovers.

175 Yup, that's who I was thinking about. The PD guy. Some quality pontification there.

176 I'm not sure that that the University of Chicago bread neocons...They just bread Milton Friedman, Laissez Faire clones.

162 "One ping only, Vasily!" Love that movie.

Well, clearly the gauntlet has been thrown down by this Al Phanumeric person.

My 2007 New Year's Resolution list now includes:

1) Start a newspaper;
2) Start exercising;
3) One-eighteen, baby.

Strauss, father of the motherless neocons was at U of Chicago. Max Shachtman wasn't a professor, I don't think, but he ended up in Chicago. I don't know if Allan Bloom should count as one, or not, but Saul Bellow probably does, doesn't he? I don't know if U of Chicago should get all the credit, the way UCLA will once you and D4P join forces, but I'm pretty sure they get at least some.

There's a DTer who attends, or did attend, U of Chicago, but I don't remember who. I only remember being deeply envious.

179

"I'm a politician Mr. Ryan, which means that when I'm not kissing babies, I'm stealing their candy..."

181 I would love to attend grad school at the University of Chicago, but I have the same problem with that school that I have will all other schools...I have no idea what it takes to get in. I haven't taken the GRE, or any other tests, and I have no idea if my GPA from UCLA (3.82) is competitive enough to get in anywhere.

I really need to do some due diligence here at some point. Really, what does it take to get a Masters or PhD at a decent school? I should have looked this up at some point.

There's plenty of housing within biking distance. Of course, it's quite expensive. But even when I was in an apartment, I biked in.

We have two cats who are both "outdoor" cats. I can't fathom moving them to an apartment with outdoor space. That being said, is it possible for two folks with middle-class incomes to afford a dwelling with outdoor space that is accessible to UCLA by means other than car? We'd also like to be able to walk to restaurants, shops, etc., if possible.

There's a DTer who attends, or did attend, U of Chicago

I think that might be Penarol.

what does it take to get a Masters or PhD at a decent school?

The GRE is pretty important, especially for funding. I studied quite diligently for it, and did quite well, which (I was later told) factored heavily into the grad school's decision to give me the proverbial "full ride."

184 Gotcha. GRE. Gotta do well on that.

What's the GRE? KIDDING!

148. Thanks for steering the TV talk to Screenjam. Have I ever mentioned that TV and movies have gone to Haiti in a handbasket.

Other: Kind of shocked about the Drew opt out, but when looking at it from his perspective I can $see$ why he did it. I am not really sure why Colletti would burn his bridges with Drew just because he opted out. Try to resign him. The guy just wants current market value. vr, Xei

Graduate school is a great way for idealistic high-school teachers to postpone for 2-6 years their feelings of frustration at not being able to change the world.

186 Haiti, or Hades?

The guy just wants current market value

I had always thought DJ would opt out because I didn't think he'd like LA. I thought he'd wanna go back to The South. But over the last year, he supposedly started liking LA better, leading me to think he'd stay.

187

Sounds Great! I'm in!

190 Actually, I want to teach college because:

A) I've spent a lot of my life learning a lot of stuff, and it seems like I don't get to use most of it with teenagers.

B) I enjoy lecturing, not giving busy garbage homework

C) College professors get to wear the cool corduroy jackets with the elbow patches, and I really dig those

191

A. That either sounds kinky or illegal...or both...

B. If there's anything busy garbage doesn't like, it's homework

C. My wife won't let me wear one of those jackets. I think I could wear the corduroy, but the elbow patches are off-limits for some reason...

Your wife is a wise woman. She knows what those coats do to co-eds. And, more directly, what those co-eds do to the coat-wearers.

193
I'm hoping that some hotties paint "I love you" in their eyelids and blink the message slowly in my direction

183

Greg Brock had a higher GPA at UCLA than I did. I feel so small now. Very, very, very small now. All over.

192 That's not what I meant

A) Learning academic stuff

B) Giving homework, which is mostly busy work, and garbage

C) Corduroy jackets rock. Elbow patches rock exponentially.

195
Just blame it on grade inflation

195 Is having a lower GPA than I that embarrassing?

It is? Now I feel small. Very, very, very small. All over.

I may seem stupid, but I aren't as stupid as yous think I is.

198
I believe your GPA would have qualified you for Summa Cum Laude. I was a lowly Magna...

:-(

200 Yes, but you are a fully functioning adult, while I am an emotionally stunted goofball.

Honors don't fix that.

while I am an emotionally stunted goofball

See: your blog

194 You'd need a whip and an ark under your desk to get them to do that sort of thing.

Y'know, this is just my geeky self talking, but some of this UK Office vs. US Office debate reminds me of the debate among my fellow "mysties" about who was the better MST3K host, Joel or Mike? One was first and great, the second wasn't the original, but pretty great too. They both have their place. They both make me laugh. The US Office is terrific and has gotten better and better, but I still love the UK version, too. I agree the original had a little less heart to it, but the acting was spot-on and it was painfully well done. I like 'em both.

I actually thought Dawn from the UK version was cute (and did anybody notice her being in a wasted cameo in Studio 60 recently?) but that new gal is mighty cute, too.

OK, that crisis of confidence has passed now.

This provides perspective for when Dodger pitching struggles. From kansascity.com--

http://tinyurl.com/tmtgg ...(Actually, I think this is going to take you to a registration page. I hate it when that happens.)

Anyhow, history of a not-so-good kind. Excerpts:

"....The 2006 Royals plainly did not have a pitcher of the year. They did not have a pitcher you could cheer. They did not have a pitcher persevere. They did not have a pitcher worth a beer.

"The Royals had their worst pitching staff ever, and that's saying something. They had a 5.65 ERA, highest in team history. That lovely ERA was also fourth-highest in the American League the last 50 years, not counting seasons shortened by strikes. If you want to count those strike years, the Royals had the sixth-highest ERA in the last 50 years, which doesn't sound much better.

"There are so many horrifying and yet mesmerizing pitching numbers to look at — to repeat my personal favorite, 13 different pitchers started more than five games for these Royals. All 13 had ERAs higher than 5.00. No one will ever break that record. But there are plenty of other glorious stats to consider. For example, the Royals starters allowed hitters a .492 slugging percentage. This was higher than Derek Jeter's slugging percentage, and he's probably going to win the American League MVP award.

"Then, there was the team's 6.96 ERA in the daytime. That's probably a record. In 46 day games — and this is really quite incredible — Royals pitchers allowed 86 home runs. Fortunately, the Royals' pitches were slightly more difficult to pick up under the lights (the Royals' night ERA was a more sane 5.17) or else Kansas City might have become the first team in baseball history to give up 300 home runs in a season.

"The Royals had an ERA higher than 5.00 every single month of the season. That's consistency. The relievers blew 31 saves, a new team record. The Royals gave up 10 runs or more 13 times — I'm just going to assume that's a lot."

And so on. And on.

204 Kind of like Real Genius, when Mitch Taylor scores higher on the entrance than Chris Knight, then finds out that Chris Knight wears bubble antannae, leg warmers, and sleeps upside down.

Like Chris Knight, I'm much more impressive on paper than in reality.

203 - Two Ricky Gervais co-stars have been appearing on Ugly Betty.

So, SamDC will be happy to know that the Nats have a new manager. The two burning questions are:

1) Will Manny Acta make the difference
2) Who is Manny Acta?

There are reasons to hate LA and UCLA, but driving does not have to be one of them.

Parking does.

I'm watching Numb3rs. Just turned it on for the first time but is the guy who likes math and developed the doping formula the same guy who layed Danger in Million Dollar Baby?

I guess I could just look it up.

Yes. its him. Mildly obscure pick-up.

210
One of the characters said that a sabermetrician proved without a doubt that Joe Jackson was innocent of throwing the 1919 World Series.

Except for the taking the money part I guess.

It's nice that some people are trying to keep D4P company, over here, while all the cool kids talk about The Office over at Screenjam.

191. C) College professors get to wear the cool corduroy jackets with the elbow patches, and I really dig those

The thing is only college professors get to wear those jackets.

214 Well, I play the acoustic guitar, and I play a lot of James Taylor, so I guess I could wear one, but the whole college professor thing is much more substantial.

Plus, I hear that the college guy get pipes with their cordury jackets. It's all about the corduroy jackets and pipes.

215. What about the tweed? Don't college profs get to wear tweed jackets also? Harringbone hats too?

There's not much need to wear tweed jackets if you're teaching at UCLA.

Big fan of tweed over here.

Pretty much anything cool among the 70's college professor crowd is awesome.

Jeans, mocassins, plaid shirt, tweed/corduroy jacket (with elbow patches), pipe, beard.

That's what it's all about.

Mocassins?? Don't you mean Wallabees?

180- You can revise that last to 93. At least, I think you can. The poster's name is PDH5204 (we was called on to account for it, in one of the threads, and said the PDH bit are his initials, and the 5204, um, something; I forget and I'm not going back through the great bricks of prose), but the longest sentence of his I can find (there were several of over seventy words, and two over eighty) numbers 92 words in length. Last sentence of the last but one paragraph, in the last comment.

https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/482032.html

From the PDH guy:

Don't know how Lugo feels but probably unpleasant. I mean, here are the numbers:

Lugo:
OBP SLG AVG
LAD .317 .296 .241
TBDR .373 .498 .308

Betemit:

LAD .321 .471 .257
AB .344 .497 .281

When some here spoke of regressing, we can see just who is regressing now that Betemit's playing everyday. And he cannot otherwise hit left-handed pitching, so what happens if the Dodgers face Johnson, Santana or Buehrle in the World Series? Any team can otherwise get a very nearly automatic out or remove Betemit from the game by simply bringing in that left-handed reliever with men on base in the late innings.

And Vin and some others wonder why the Dodger's were so lucky to latch onto the Second Coming. To answer Vin and those others, Betemit was never going to take Chipper's place, he's apparently not better than Marcus Giles nor will he be in the forseeable future, and Furcal left, which left the door wide open for him, but instead, the Braves went out and got Edgar "I made 30 errors playing short for the Bosox last year" Renteria. What does that say? And Betemit had been in the Braves organization his entire career, yes? So if anyone knew the player he was capable of becoming it was the Braves, yes? And they signed him at how old again? Did the Braves know something that Ned & Grady didn't? And for a more complete perspective, Giles is arbitration eligible this year, and the word on the street in Braves country is that the Braves might simply let Giles go and have Aybar take over at second. And that, not because because he can hit righties better than Betemit, as he can't, but he can hit lefties at something better than less than a buck. Oh, sorry, one more. For those who said, well, he .240 against lefties on the Braves this year. Yeah, he did. Now go over to the MLB website and go team by team. Betemit either went 1.000 or 0.000, or very nearly so. It was either feast or famine, and he starved against lefties far more than he ate. I will let someone else determine the ERA of the lefties that he did feast against.

And here's why Lugo, at least if the Dodgers would like to win the Series this year:

Yankees [6 games]:

Tropicana Field .385 .333 .333
Yankee Stadium .385 .273 .273
Totals .385 .304 .304

Chisox [3 games]:

Tropicana .308 .385 .308

Detroit [4 games]:

Comerica .368 .529 .294

Boston [8 games]:

Fenway Park .333 .412 .294
Tropicana .389 .533 .267

And no more American League jokes, since the NL is clearly the inferior league, since, among other items, of all NL teams, only the CR and the SFG have a winning record in interleague play.

So, just when I was hoping that we might put thirty some years of futility behind us, I suppose that I stand corrected. Oh, and I don't count '89, since in addition to anything that anyone else might have done, that team doesn't win without Orel that year, and for that year, there was no Orel-substitute [as it were].

In the meantime, for those who study such things, well, based on some BP/Pecota figures, Lugo is supposed to rate as the 5th best shortstop in baseball. He's riding our bench in favor of a guy who can't hit lefthanders and so will never be an everyday player, at least for a team that considers futility a failure.

And for a final word, never ever take a player's performance against your team as being indicative of anything more or other than how he hits against you:

Dodger Stadium .429 .857 .429
Turner Field 1.000 1.000 1.000

So, in 9 AB's versus the LAD, Betemit went:

.556 .889 .556

Lugo will otherwise, well, there are no other comparable shortstops in this year's free agent market, and so while he won't he get Furcal money [only the Dodgers are that stupid], he will get more than he should, somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-23 million over 4 years. BP says he's worth 17 million over 4 years. So call the extra the "I'm the only decent thing" available premium. And as I remarked a while back, he prefers shortstop, but given his arm strength and tendency to be erratic at times, second base is a much better fit. And, again, that's why some other good teams, the Red Sox, the Mets, etc., all wanted to trade for him this year and have him play second base. The problem they each had was one does not get to talk with the other team's players. If they had been able to do so, well, when Lugo was negotiating with the TBDR, he kept coming back to the matter of whether the TBDR truly wanted to win. So that would have been the hook. You can either play short for a long-term loser like the TBDR, or you can play second for a winner. I was hoping that management here would have the smarts to do so, but as I said, I suppose that I now stand corrected.

For one last word re regression, well, our friends at BP expected Lugo to regress after his 2005 season, which was well above their prediction. Not only did he not regress this year, his .295 BA was up to .308, his .362 OBP was up to .373, and his .403 SLG was up to .498. According to fans of the TBDR, the explanation for the absence of the regression is simply that, like Koufax, Lugo found it, and he found in the latter half of the 2004 season and hasn't been the same player since. I'll will otherwise leave it to the numbers people to notify BP that statistics don't apply so well to human future performance, given that machines and other things mechanical cannot improve themselves on a permament basis while humans can. Well, tell them that, and also that only the fool thinks that human improvement constitutes a "statistical anomaly."

And, hey, if the "we don't know how to build a long-term winner" Dodgers management wants to get bench and then get rid of a guy who was outperforming Betemit in a league with superior pitching, and that with the guy having to face all pitchers while Betemit far more often than not sat against your more sinister pitchers, well, I suppose that it's their money and their tradition, so if they want to waste and trash the same, so be it.

That's good stuff right there.

And now, as the second of the ten "Thank You For Nots" Jon has seen fit to post on this, his site (of which I'm grateful and ought to display said gratitude in practice, and not mere words), asks us not to attack other commenters, I should say, upon reflecting on my little witch hunt here, tonight, which, while it didn't end in any steak burnings, drownings, or other nefarious ends, did hold up another commenter (whom I've no reason to so impugn; his style is his own, and not any imposition on me, other than what I make it) to ridicule, that I'm sorry for being a jerk, to the extent I was one, which is his to weigh, as the harm (such as it is) was done him.

In case that apology is unacceptable, which, given its structure, would be if it were offered to me, I'll add this one: I'm sorry. It should, at least, be of some comfort that, in order to be as big a jerk about it as I decided to be, I spent a long time, on a Friday night, trolling through archives instead of, like, having some sort of life. Anyway; don't know if you'll read this, but, here it is.

The bar's set to 130, now, Terry. Good luck.

Andrew, I find myself rather frustrated with your edginess this morning.

Yet I am bloodied but unbowed. One-thirty it is.

Nats (internet-related fans) are excited about Manny Acta because of this:

http://www.lonestarball.com/story/2006/10/11/17030/132

and this:

http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/story/2006/10/18/211833/88

Credit: http://dcbb.blogspot.com/

We'll see.

My sigh of relief was deafening when I read that Edmonds re-upped with the Cards this morning: http://tinyurl.com/ygnh5z

210 And related to that and also obscure, the guy who played Danger in Million $ Baby was the star of the late, lamented, short-lived series Undeclared.

From 140==

"If you lived even a little closer, Brock and I would kidnap you, and then hogtie you in front of a t.v. (his t.v., specifically; I don't need any more blood on my carpet) and fix this whole problem within two episodes.

"And then we'd make you eat two spoonfulls of dog food, mixed in spaghetti. Just for kicks."

Before the national do-not-call list, this was remarkably effective in getting rid of telemarketers:

"Sorry, I can't talk now. I thought you were the ambulance. The police are still here, and there's blood everywhere!!!."

Make that 143. And have some more coffee.

221- In the first place, Julio Lugo is going to go to Boston because Alexes Cora and Gonzalez were insufficient for them anyway. The Red Sox have the second-largest payroll in the game, and they need some offense out of their shortstop. He wants to play shortstop, so there ya go.

I think that's what it comes down to. Arguing the rest is as moot as arguing that we should have gotten Piazza as a backup catcher.

A little late to this part of the dance, but:

GregBrock: your GPA is fine. GPA really doesn't matter for grad school admission, because it's impossible to comapare across schools, or even majors, with any confidnence. The only signal that GPA can send is a bad one. In this era of ridiculous grade inflation, a low GPA is a red flag. But 3.8 is fine. The GRE is much more important, because it's the same test for everyone. That and your essay (or statement of purpose or whatever they call it).

Other fields may vary. Heed at your own discretion.

And for LAT, yeah,parking in West LA and around UCLA sucks, but, um, that problem goes away if you're not driving. Unless you like parking other people's cars for fun.

D4P: One neat thing about West LA is that you CAN walk to restaurants, groceries, post office, banks, etc. Honestly, I only ever drive if I'm leaving town or need to shlep a lot of stuff somewhere. Otherwise, it's the bike or the bus.

Oh, and I've only ever seen one professor wear the corduroy/elbow patch thing. And he's 80 yrs old. For me, half the point of this career choice was to never have to wear a jacket or tie or uncomfortable shoes. I have this vague delusion that the worse I dress, the more brilliant people will think I must be.

Well, now that the Drew situation has been discussed and debated, now the question is what do the dodgers do now with their outfield?

229

That wasn't me. That was an example of somebody else's writing from a previous thread.

Back in my day, which was a period when dodos and passenger pigeons were regular sights on the UCLA campus, I didn't have any trouble getting into grad school with a GPA lower than 3.82 (for the record it was something like 3.68 as I was the King of the A- grade, I think got close to 20 of them). However, I went to a professional school (UC Berkeley's library school) and I wasn't doing graduate work in an academic discipline.

I had harbored illusions of doing grad work in history, but in my sophomore year a professor told me that I would never be very good at it. And in my senior year, another professor told me this. Unsolicited advice both times! I was told I didn't write well.

However, I did do very well on the GRE and I actually got a grant for library school. I believe I qualified for a grant for tall, skinny straight guys going to library school.

I would also echo GoBears comments about walking around West LA. I rarely go to that part of town, but when I was a student, I walked as much as I could and I only drove when I went back to my parents house in the Valley or if I wanted to go to Santa Monica or some place like that.

I will add that the only problem I had with walking to campus when I went to UCLA was that the passenger pigeons kept dropping "stuff" on me. And the dodos never got out of the way in time.

234 Wow, nice professors.

Any wisdom in signing players for more than 3 years? I don't see it. If it means you can't get a certain player, is that really a bad thing....longterm?

236
And one of them won a Distinguished Faculty award of some kind.

With the other one, I saw a book written by the man available on the library's order sheet. I recommended not buying it.

It wasn't solely out of revenge however. It really wasn't a public library type book. Not that I felt sad.

237 While I agree that keeping payroll flexibility is ideal, it's almost impossible to get any kind of impact player on a three year deal anymore.

Of course, if you don't like the free agent market this year, I guess that's fine.

236. Well, I have no idea if the advice was at all appropriate in Bob's case (whose writing I find delightful). But I wish more faculty were more brutally honest with students - especially grad students. College is where the "you can be whatever you want to be if you just try hard enough" BS ought to stop. In fact, if the academic part of college means anything, it's probably as an opportunity for students to figure out what they're good and what they're not so good at. Which is why I'm not a physicist.

239. Well, you could sign a guy to a 5 yr deal with a 2-yr opt-out. That would probably work.

Well, they did get Furcal, and even though I didn't like the signing at the time, the 3 year part was good.

I don't like the free agent market this year. I think the contracts these players will get will dwarf the one Drew got, and look how happy many of the Dodger fans are that the Dodgers don't have to pay the remaining 3 years.

239

I'd argue that Furcal and Nomar were impact players, and I think that Bonds and Alou would be impact players.

Just how many 4 and 5 year deals actually end up benefitting the team?

240 Agreed. While I was in the teacher's credential program, I had lengthy chats with my professors, mostly about how terrified we were at the people that were getting through the program. These people were going to be teachers!

I could hardly imagine any of them impressing enough during an interview to get a job, yet they did. Wow.

240Even when faculty are brutally honest, many students do not want to hear it. I have had several "C" students tell me they wanted to get PhDs and when I told them how hard it is to just to get into a doctoral program, they are convinced that their desire is enough. Nevermind actually getting a job after getting a degree.

230,234

That's good news about not having to drive and being able to walk, bike, or bus. That's what I want to hear. I met with three UCLA faculty this morning, and had an informal interview with one. I brought up some of my concerns about LA (e.g. affordability, transportation, etc.), and they pretty much said what you said (i.e. that you can live in places that let you bike/bus to UCLA). They also mentioned some kind of housing assistance for new faculty (e.g. a low-interest loan), but didn't know much about it.

I guess that if you overpay players (like the Furcal contract), you can do that. Which is fine. I was more talking about the first tier, everybody wants them type free agents. I would add that Nomar was a special case, what with the injury history and all.

I would have no problem sticking with payroll flexibility, and shying away from the five/six year deals as well. Unless, you know, it's a young bonfide ace, or a young masher who becomes eligible for FA.

So, can AJ Ellis be the Dodgers backup catcher next year? Or is another year in the minors in the cards for him? (Assuming Toby Hall doesn't come back...)

http://tinyurl.com/yjvg3a

240
In retrospect, the second professor was right. The first professor was just a jerk.

If you notice my writing style, it tends to have a lot of short paragraphs and not overly serious. I know I don't write as well as my two brothers who do it for a living. I don't write as well as Jon.

I think the professors at UCLA like writing styles like the one quoted in 222. I've found something I think I'm pretty good at in life, which I picked entirely on my own. I never had anyone suggest that I become a librarian.

247
D4P,
Of the seven librarians I supervise, all but one of them comes to work on public transportation. They only drive in on weekends and night shifts. And even one of them takes public transporation on all days.

Since the library is Downtown, a lot of bus and rail lines converge there, so it's not hard to find public transportation for them.

And the City of LA subsidizes the bus passes.

I never had anyone suggest that I become a librarian

That suggestion is reserved for mousy, petite females. Oh, with glasses.

251
Meanwhile, the supervisor drives a Prius to work...?

The problem with so-called first-tier free agents, is they usually are only first-tier by default. And because of it, you end up paying elite-type money for very average production.

I'm not sure I like the term payroll flexibility. That term could sound negative to some. I'd rather zero in on paying as close as possible for equal production in return.

I can't think of too many scenarios where overpaying has worked out well for a team.

Of the seven librarians, I supervise three are male (and all wear glasses) and four are female. The women are neither mousy nor wear glasses.

However, the stereotype can still be found if you look for it.

253
As part of a carpool!

Wow, you guys really care about this whole "environment" thing. That's so neat.

248 Yeah, I loved Vlad's deal at the time, and I'd have no objection to a huge long term deal for Miguel Cabrera.

If we can daydream on baseball a bit... Someone mentioned moving Furcal to centerfield; that could open some interesting possibilities. Trade Penny et al for A-rod and use him at shortstop; LaRoche/Betemitt at third. Sign Soriano OR use Loney/Kemp in rightfield and resign Nomar for first base. (I'd offer Nomar $25M for 3years with the agreement to play anywhere we want him). Subbing Soriano's and A-rod's projected salaries for Drew's and Penny's would increase our payroll somewhat but we would have a strong team.

258 Cabrera will be available at some point, whether it's a trade, or his free agency in a few years.

I would offer the moon for Miguel Cabrera. And don't go telling me that the moon cannot be included in a trade or contract. The CBA doesn't say anything about offering planetary satellites, thank you very much.

254 - Deals like the Phillies' 2003 signing of Jim Thome come to mind, when the objective is to make a statement about a team's credibility as well as to bring in talented players.

For example, suppose the DRays offer Mark Mulder a two year, $40mil contract this winter. A deal like that could very well pay for itself in the added attendance, revenue, etc that would result from the team enhancing their credibility and showing a willingness to spend for high-level talent, beyond the benefits that actually having a #2 pitcher would bring.

For further examples of this trend, see "Rodriguez, Ivan".

257 Let me join in--I just did some composting this morning. My wife hates it because it stinks, but she's out of town.

249 He slugged .296 as a 25 year old in AA, so, no.

259 Sign Soriano? $120 million for a player who hit .277 and struck out 160 times? And, who, for the first time in his career had an on-base percentage above .340 (and just barely) ???

I'm with you on a possible Arod deal that would include sending Penny to the Yanks, but let's hope the Dodgers stay as far away from Soriano as they possibly can!

260
The US is a signatory to a treaty that prevents the private ownership of any extraterrestrial body.

http://www.state.gov/t/ac/trt/5181.htm

Article II

Outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means.

265 I knew that was coming...

266

It's even better when I find a real treaty!

North Korea never signed it. So watch out.

261 I'd say the Thome deal in Philadelphia backfired, and they were happy, or should I say lucky to find a team to take him off their hands. I'm speaking to how they felt at the time he was traded to Chicago.

Mulder in Tampa is crazy. If the fans there are so delusional to think that signing a Mulder is somehow going to turn around their franchise that they run out and buy season tickets? Your 2 year $40 million scenario would be nothing more than a waste of $40 million.

Not to be an idiot, (I know, why stop now?), but how do you set the link to the response you are replying to?

Thanks in advance!

269
On the sidebar, under "Fairpole" there are now FAQs that explain the formatting you can do.

I think the professors at UCLA like writing styles like the one quoted in 222.

Not any that I know. Then again, I rarely see undergraduate prose any more. The quarter system makes term papers pointless - not enough time to do them well. The only real writing I see from undergrads is when I'm supervising senior honors theses. And I beat the "writing to impress instead of writing to communicate" out of them. I keep a softball bat in my office for just that purpose. But then, the kids who want to go to the effort of write a senior honors thesis are typically better than average students. Which is nice.

263 Hm, that's not all that impressive is it? Still, he's tearing up the AFL and could be a late bloomer. Plus, it's just back up catcher we're talking about. ;-) But maybe members of the Einar Diaz fan club will chime in.

{sound of crickets chirping}

257 Wow, you guys really care about this whole "environment" thing. That's so neat.

Maybe this was directed at Bob and his Busload of Librarians, but the environment has nothing to do with why I avoid driving (it's just a positive externality). I bike because it's faster, it's the only exercise I get these days, and it saves me $1000 a year by not having to buy a UCLA parking pass.

273
The people I work with take public transportation because it is much easier and less physically draining for them to get to work.

Just a lame attempt at humor, people.

269
If you'd like to put an umlaut on your Fünke, or learn other ways to put stuff in your text, fellow commenter Linkmeister sent me a great page that covers all that stuff.

http://tinyurl.com/sk2y

Enjoy ™

I remember when I lived in LA and used to bicycle to work, I'd get the oddest looks from passing drivers, as if I was a man in a clown suit riding a giant banana or something. And this was from Venice (where people do bike) to Culver City, up a bike lane, not too far. It was sort of a pleasant adjustment to move back to SF - where there were other people bike commuting to work. But of course there are many pockets of LA (especially West LA) where there are plenty of cyclists out there.

I put up a college football chat thread on The Griddle if anyone wishes to use it.

Re: 183

More grad school applications advice from someone who went through it reasonably recently:

IMO, the most important factors for grad school apps are rec. letters and, if a school asks for it, and most do, the writing sample. I agree with the earlier comments that GPA is more a red flag if it's too low. Take the GRE seriously, but at some places, it's pretty low in terms of importance, but that may only be the case for History. But make sure you get rec. letters from profs who really know you--the last thing you want is a boilerplate letter.

WWSH

Some gracious damage control up at Inside the Dodgers.

More graduate school application advice from someone on the other side of the table. We look hard at GPA, both overall and in the major. Letters have to be from an actual faculty member (we wonder if they are from someone who only taught you once or is an adjunct) and should address your academic skills (we have had many talk about all sorts of other things). In your own essay, please do not say how much you love the subject. Tell us why you like it and what you want to do with your degree. Way too many applicants are making it clear that they are only applying because they can't find a job. You may get into grad school with a mediocre application but you won't get any money that way.

Thank you all for your advice. Each of you has helped tremendously.

See, Mr. Brock is obviously an academic at heart. Look at the way he graciously attributed the link he provided to me. ;)

I never intended to go to grad school, but I did take the GMAT (twice! The proctors lost a batch of answer sheets including mine the first time I took it). By the time I got the results I was working for a startup (which meant 70-80 hour weeks and no time for classes).

Moral: take the tests but expect real life to intervene.

255 I'd have to say that Kristen Chernoweth doesn't fit the stereotype of a librarian either.

BTW, one more thing about grad schools--what one of my old undergraduate instructors said. For grad school in the humanities at least, make sure you really want to do it--i.e. that it's more a vocation and a calling than a job. The job market is AWFUL. Just awful. And it WON'T get any better. Most PhDs from good program will eventually get jobs, but that can come from years of dreary adjuncting. And even then, sometimes the tenure track position never comes. Academia's a great life, but ONLY if you get a tenure-track position, which is no easy feat, and it isn't guaranteed that one gets one of those positions at an institution that's a good fit. I'm one of the lucky ones, but a lot of it is just dumb luck, and the uncertain nature of both grad school and the academic job market is something you need to realize before you even begin to apply to graduate school, or, at least, for a full-blown PhD program.

Trust me, you don't want to be the bitter humanities PhD who goes to law school after 8 years in a PhD program and 4 years teaching for peanuts as an adjunct.

BTW, the comments above don't really count with regards to fields that have job possibilities outside of the university.

WWSH

Arghhhh... Hit submit too early:

Replace "from years of dreary adjuncting" with "after years of dreary adjuncting." And "program" in the same sentence should obviously be plural.

WWSH

Anybody using a Broadcom wireless card might want to have a look at this:

http://blogs.zdnet.com/Ou/?p=365

It takes a lot to get George Ou cranked up, but when there's an exclamation point in the title, it's usually wise to do what he says. Also, anybody who has any intention of even experimenting with Linux should think about not getting a Broadcom wifi laptop. Unless he really digs wasting hours of time figuring out how ndiswrapper works.

It's noted in this morning's Globe that the Sox had placed a call to the Dodgers at the July trading deadline inquiring about J.D. Drew, and were told he wasn't available.

Does anyone think that if the Dodgers had known what may happen and Drew hadnt made the comments he did anything would have changed?....unlikly but you never know.....

150 I know Marty does, or used to, take the opposite position, and I also know that his judgment is generally to be preferred over mine. But I think he's wrong on this one.

I've never seen the British version and the American version is the best show on the telly right now.

*I'd have replied earlier, but my DSL has been out for the past three days other than small pockets of time like this ine.

288- Huh. I would have sworn it was you. Must have been somebody else whose judgment is generally to be preferred over mine. Which doesn't narrow it down nearly enough.

I have a friend coming over tonight to catch the last two episodes of The Office that her Tivo didn't record.

287 Yes, I most certainly think the Dodgers thinking about Drew's availibility in trades would have changed had they known he wanted out at the end of this year. He would have been gone, imho.

Think what we could have gotten, given we got a good prospect for Sandy Alomar of all people! ;-)

PS: WellsforKemp? Can't we have both Vernon Wells and Matt Kemp? Assuming you didn't mean David Wells? Heh.

I feel like out of all the bad in trying to find another outfielder to replace Drew the one good thing I think no one has mentioned is that Ned may be only able to now sign one pitcher and if you believe he will keep to his word and sign a Zito or Schmidt then that means Bills and Kuo should get a chance in the rotation........in other words no Ted Lillys of the world for the all importiant "depth"

thats David Wells from the trade deadline rumors of course :)

287 Yes, I most certainly think the Dodgers thinking about Drew's availibility in trades would have changed had they known he wanted out at the end of this year. He would have been gone, imho.

Maybe Ned has a little more beef with some of his comments on Drew going back on his word then.

Wow, Cal is going to lose

Wow, that's gotta kill them for the BCS

From Inside the Dodgers:

"Having had some time for the news to settle, I think it's safe to say that no one over here thinks that J.D. was being unfair in opting out of his contract. That was obviously his right and more power to him and his agent if they can get more money, which they probably know they can do or they would not have exercised it in the first place.

"If anything, I think there's just some disappointment in how it all went down. Given J.D.'s end of the year comments, it was our belief he'd still be here and that he was very happy. He's certainly entitled to change his opinion during the month of October and obviously he did. Maybe had there been a heart-to-heart between him and the team before that, things might have been different, but they weren't, so we move on. I know that Scott Boras likened this situation to us not picking up Eric Gagne's option, but something tells me he might have been a little bit perturbed if we had been saying all year that we had planned to pick up Eric's option and then when the time came to actually file the paperwork, we changed our minds.

Hear, hear.

268. Nothing against a fellow Illinoian, but Mulder would turn the Rays into a nearly contending team. We've got a good enough line-up and a good enough assortment of young pitchers that we're a good veteran starter(which Mulder can be) away from being a possible wild-card team.

Though, the Rays new ownership isn't going to offer that much money on a 2 year contract. Mulder at 20 MIL/year would have him making more than the rest of the Rays entire payroll.

298 - Mulder would need a serious revival though. He's on a scary downward trend.

Are the Rays trading any of their OFers this offseason?

299- Not unless we robbed someone blindly, only because we don't have as many OFers as one thinks.

Crawford, Rocco and Delmon look to be serious locks at the 3 OF positions, Dukes is at 1B(where he's getting his final shot, due to Durham's GM mandating that Dukes is to never return) and Upton hasn't moved from 3B yet and I'm sure has a year from being moved(from position or the team).

Looking to sign Mulder is a good step for the Rays and a low-risk move. If all goes well, the Rays will have a talented but young rotation(Kaz, Mulder, Niemann, Shields and Talbot/Howell/Hammel/Seo/Fossum)

"Mulder would turn the Rays into a nearly contending team."

Yeah, Mulder and, oh maybe Sandy Koufax in his prime.

297 I'm impressed with Rawitch on that blog. He's got a candid, calm, thoughtful voice.

I'm one who thinks PR in the blogosphere is oil and water, but Rawitch is a rare example of a blogging flack who does it right.

268 Am I missing something? 6-7 with a 7.14 era, and coming off rotator-cuff surgery, and Mulder is an automatic lock to make Tampa a contending team?

Given those question marks, why would ANY team give him even $2 million, much less $20 million?

I meant to reference 298

Anyone think there will be any major signings within the next 24 hours? I realize the teams have had time to talk to players since the World Series, but do you think there will be any big signings right away?

So with Depo now working for the Pods and the Pods needing a 2B, does he try the Jose Valentine experiment again. Did he learn his lesson or does he want to prove that without the injury it would have been a good idea.

(I hope its the former for his sake)

I think he's thinking that given recent history, they can sign him, then trade him to us for Matt Kemp and James Loney.

301. Have you ever seen Kazmir pitch when he's "on"? Niemann is another pitcher that's close to be pitching in the Rays' rotation that people have forgotten about. Also, Niemann wasn't pulled out of the AFL due to shoulder problems. His shoulder tightened a little in a throwing session, when he returned from his Grandfather's funeral, but the Rays felt that 2-3 AFL outings in the remaining season was pointless when he could rest a bit and prepare himself for earning a spot in Spring Training. I've seen many sites saying Niemann was pulled because his shoulder, which isn't the real truth.

303. Well, 2 MIL-8 MIL on a MLB-Quality #2 or 3 Veteran Starter is a risk worth taking. Now, I'd guess that the horrible record and ERA from last year was due to the rotator cuff being injured and he should be alot better now than he was then.

If Tampa Bay can pick up a good pitcher, they could very well have a team better than the Orioles next year. If they can keep their outfielders out of prison.

309. They have an OFer in prison? What has Damon Hollins done?

Dukes is a 1B and none of the 3 starting OFers have a criminal past. I don't even think Rocco has any ties to tbe mob...

I was being flip, and didn't think to look it up. Still, Tampa's got to be pretty high on the potential time missed to imprisonment projections.

311. Well, Hamilton wasn't even imprisoned for his hereoin and cocaine habits. He was just mandated by the NDRO and MLB to go to rehab and complete it if he ever wanted to return to baseball.

Toe Nash was a prospect and that's it, he was never expected to make it to the majors(I believe). He was dumber than a box of rocks.

307 I hope he is confusing our present admin. with someone akin to the 3 Stooges.
Anyone who would trade those two untested would be candidates for the Bostom Bruins front office.

Steve does not like dealing with the Devil Rays.

Not that I blame him. Not the greatest trades on our part.

Apparently, one of the keys to victory in this game is the turnover margin.

Who knew?

Wrong window, eh?

316 Couldn't let it slide, could ya?

LOL

Any guesses how, "Next Pope is John Paul II Impersonated," found its way to the top of the page? Reference was made to a certain actor whose fans might be predisposed to that sort of thing, but I don't think his name was mentioned. Does Google know that anybody talking about Chevy Chase this week is really takling about something else?

318 I hadn't noticed. I've been playing with my Bullpen Buddy all day.

319
I thought you were married...

If I were married, I doubt the future ex-Mrs. Brock would allow me to sit here and watch football all day.

I would have to go to Linens N Things and whatnot.

Then I hope the Bullpen Buddy and Greg Brock are just good friends.

I never read TJ Simers, but the simple title drug me in, and it's an interesting piece.

This stood out as a sorta new fact, not that he left b/c of this but just another data point:

"Dodgers executives and Manager Grady Little had let it be known they weren't pleased by Drew's measured approach to the game, Little at one point instructing him "to strike out" to maybe make him more aggressive at the plate."

Rawitch is the eighth best lefthanded front office blogger in the National League.

I agree with almost everything Simers said in that article.

If the BoSox are in fact the high bidders for Matzusaka, and sign him, can their TV arm cut its own deal with Japan broadcasting or are all such rights to broadcast MLB in Japan held by the league, if anyone knows? I'm trying to figure out why they would potentially invest so much money.

If the Red Sox do end up with Matsuzaka, any TV deal would be much more limited in scope than what the Yankees and Mariners get. Essentially EVERY Yankees and Mariners game is shown in Japan because Matsui and Ichiro are very likely to play.

Only games in which Matsuzaka starts would be shown in Japan. And since the Yankees are already being shown everyday and most of the time, the Yankees and Red Sox start at the same time, I don't know which outlet could show Red Sox games.

I think the Earth is about to split apart because I, too, agreed with much of what Simers wrote. Never thought I'd say that.

I do think he lets Drew off a little easy, but he makes some good points, seeing the other side of things.

Simers makes the point that I made yesterday. A month has passed since the season has ended, which I feel is enough time for Drew to change his mind. (Yesterday, I asked if people here would stay at their current job if it meant turning down an 18-percent raise - no one responded.)

Combined with the fact that the Dodgers were warned on Monday about it, I think it is really not that big a deal.

And it's not as if Drew changed his mind December 31. All this talk about ruining the Dodgers' plans ... the only decision they have made was to sign Ramon Martinez. The Dodgers can do anything now they could have done had Drew given a year's notice.

Whoever it was that likened this situation to this week's Office episode was right. It can well anger you when someone bolts suddenly for more money, but it's the way of the world.

For all Dodger fans who really hate the Pods, the Rays were listed as one of the other bidders for Japanese hitter Akinora Iwamura. Pray that the Rays get him.

We apparently also are in discussions with Todd Walker...

So we're looking at 2B/3B who can actually field, wonder how Upton and Cantu are feeling right now. My money says Cantu is traded at Winter Meetings. The Winter Meetings that are associated with trades are the GM meetings or the owner meetings? I'm confused if I should be paying attention more this week or the week of December 7th?

The LA Times is reporting that the Angels plan to make a lot of very big offers tomorrow in hopes of grabbing some big names early. That seems to be Stoneman's negotiating strategy.

329 -- I didn't see your question yesterday, Jon, but I would turn down another job with an 18% raise, IF -- like Drew -- I had given my current employer assurances that I would not leave. I said that was the issue on the day Drew dropped his bombshell, but you and a few other people have either ignored that or said that it is not knowable that Drew gave any assurances. The post at InsideTheDodgers distinguishing what Drew did from the Dodgers letting Gagne go should make it quite clear that the Dodgers front office is ticked for the same reason I am: Drew made promises and did not keep them. Like my Contract Law professor in law school used to say, you may not have legal remedies against people who break a promise but not a contract, but the people who break a promise for their own advantage and not out of necessity are scum, and you should feel free to call them that, loudly and often. (By the way, my Contract Law professor was Anne McLellan, who later became Canada's Minister of Justice and the Deputy Prime Minister of Canada. So Colletti is in distinguished company in thinking that self-interested promise-breakers deserve any verbal brickbats that get thrown their way.)

And yes, there is a parallel with Thursday's Office episode, but did you not notice that the subtext in the episode was that Josh behaved reprehensibly? Jim: "Say what you will about Michael Scott, but he wouldn't have done that."

I thought the parallel Jim was making was that Michael Scott was too inept to leverage a promotion into getting a better job for more pay from a different company.

I don't see Michael Scott as being fanatically loyal to Dunder-Mifflin, but rather knowing that it is one of the few places that values him and puts up with his foibles, which are sizeable.

333 - What Bob said.

Canuck, I wouldn't criticize anyone who turned down the raise, but I don't know why someone who goes for the raise should be considered scum.

I guess the rationale that because the Deputy Prime Minister of Canada says it's true means that it must be true isn't quite working with me.

Question (as Dwight would say): Did Drew promise not to opt out, or did he say he had no plans to opt out?

Here's what Drew said to Bill Plunkett:

"I don't plan on (using) it," he said Tuesday. "I've enjoyed my time living in Los Angeles. That's what it was there for – to make sure (wife) Sheigh and I didn't come all the way across the country (from their native Georgia) and get stuck in a situation we didn't like."

Drew said the clause has hardly come up in discussions with his agent, Scott Boras, since the original negotiations. He couldn't imagine any reason for his opinion to change between now and the end of the season, prompting him to use the opt-out option.

"You know what – I don't think so," said Drew, who also has a limited no trade clause. "Ultimately it's my decision, and we're happy where we're at. We love our house in Pasadena. My wife is happy. She's made a lot of friends in our neighborhood and with the other players' wives. That's really the thing that was nerve-wracking about it (free agency) for me.

"At some point, you make those commitments and you stick to them."

*

Every year coaches leave college teams for pro jobs, leaving recruits in the lurch. Are those coaches scum? Or, given an opportunity to improve your station dramatically, are you allowed to at least have the choice to go?

333 -- Bob, I'm surprised at you: Whenever you have heard a statement prefaced with "Say what you will about..." has it not always been clear that the statement that follows is a compliment, not an insult? "Say what you will about Michael Scott, but he has integrity" makes sense. "Say what you will about Michael Scott, but he is inept" does not makes sense.

336
Well, I'm a sarcastic and deeply cynical individual who usually expects the worst.

335 "Every year coaches leave college teams for pro jobs, leaving recruits in the lurch. Are those coaches scum? Or, given an opportunity to improve your station dramatically, are you allowed to at least have the choice to go?"

Those are not mutually exclusive. And I think that's rather the point -- if you say repeatedly that you have no plans to exercise that option out, and then go ahead and do it with little lead time as warning, it's uncool. Is it legal? Of course, but that's not the question at hand. Both Ned on the air (esp. in the AM 570 interview I heard yesterday) and the Inside blog have made that distinction very clear.

Is what Drew did legal? No question. Is it reprehensible? Hardly. Was it a good business decision for him? We'll have to see, but given the market currently, I'd imagine so.

Could he and Boras gone about things with Ned and the Dodgers better? In hindsight, sure. Do their actions make me miss Drew? The stats, yes. The person...not so much.

336 - "Say what you will about Michael Scott, but he is inept" does not makes sense.

Canuck, you're kidding me, right? Michael Scott = inept.

Yes, Michael Scott has his own brand of integrity, but clearly his ineptitude is the dominant feature.

The comedy of that line is in the twist on the conventional "Say what you will ..."

Check out this bit from that LA Times Angels story:

"In August, as Drew repeatedly told reporters that he would return to the Dodgers, Boras talked privately of how he could see Drew playing center field for the Angels."

334 -- You just keep leaving out the whole issue of the promise, Jon. It's like the concept just isn't registering, and pardon me if I am getting a little frustrated by that. Taking a raise does not make someone scum. The raise isn't the issue. Leaving when you PROMISED you wouldn't is the issue. The raise is irrelevent.

I mentioned Anne McLellan and her distinguished posts not because you have to believe her by virtue of her career accomplishments, but to make the point that Colletti did not make himself into some yahoo for speaking of Drew as he did. You weren't the one who called Colletti names, but I was thinking of GoBears and Andrew Shimmin, who seemed to be outraged that a man in Colletti's high position would throw insults at Drew. Colletti was acting like common street trash, seemed to be their point. And of course there was also the whole "Drew's contract was his word" nonsense. Well, I'm sorry, but the Professor of Contract Law from whom I learned about contracts would, and did, when I was in her class, scoff at the idea that formal written contracts MORALLY let people off the hook for their verbal assurances.

341 - I'm not missing issue, Canuck. I know you're talking about the promise. I'm asking a) how binding does the promise have to be (surely, there's some circumstance where Drew would be allowed to break it) and b) did Drew promise to stay, or did he plan to stay?

Those are my issues, and you haven't responded to at least one, if not both.

329, While not lobbying for saint- or sap-hood, I did turn down a 30% increase a few months ago. It seemed like a good role but was 100 miles south, we didn't want to uproot our twin 11th graders, and I wasn't willing to leave on Mondays and return on Fridays. Money doesn't always trump quality of life issues.

Drew changed his mind about L.A. the past few weeks? There's probably about 10 million reason$, eh?

Re natty college profs, we just returned from a college tour day at Stanford. I can report no sightings of tweed jackets with padded elbows, but did see plenty of blue sport coats. (As a Cal alum, I enjoyed their color choice). We sat in on an upper division anthropology class, and tried not to be distracted by the professor's 1980's Adidas sweat suit.

Talk about a prescient discussion on DT. On the drive home today, the twins asked if I wanted Season 1 of The Office for a Christmas present. I told them I didn't know anything about the show. Based on today's comments, I'll tell them to go for it.

But since Drew has filed for free agency does it matter at all who is in the right and who is in the wrong?

Obviously, the Dodgers don't plan any legal action against Drew.

339 -- Jim didn't say "Michael Scott is inept." We know he could have said that, and it would be true, but we are talking about what Jim did say, and what he said was prefaced with "Say what you will about Michael Scott..." What we are arguing about is how to interpret what Jim said after that first clause of the sentence. My point is what any authority on English usage would say: When a sentence begins "Say what you will about (say, Mr. X)..." the next clause has to be interpreted as a compliment of Mr. X. Nobody follows "Say what you will about..." with an insult. Has not yet happened in the history of the world. Jim paid Michael a compliment after Josh acted unscrupulously. Jim was saying that Michael may be inept ("Say what you will about Michael..."), but at least he isn't calculatedly underhanded like Josh.

342 -- The Dodgers took Drew's statements as a promise, not just vague talk about the future, and so did I. If Drew has a different perspective on his own words, we haven't heard him present it, and don't hold your breath waiting for him to do so. I doubt he cares about explaining himself.

Now about whether a promise can ever be broken, here's the code I live by: If I tell somebody I am going to do something and I have a reasonable expectation that they are relying on me, I make it clear if I am or am not promising them anything. If I make somebody a promise and I have to break it, or even just WANT to break it, I go to that person and ask them to let me out of my obligation. If they say no, I'm screwed. I have to do it. Maybe it is because people have made promises to me that they have not kept and I have suffered for it that I am such a stickler on this.

Point of order: Andrew Shimmin was not in the slightest outraged by Colletti's statements. He just thought Colletti was acting like a pansy, whining about Drew opting out of the contract. Andrew Shimmin doesn't know how he might have been more clear on the point. If Colletti had just been insulting, and, perhaps, funny about it, Andrew Shimmin would have enjoyed the hubub, while still thinking it a little silly.

347, continued: Further, Andrew Shimmin asked how Drew ought to have answered the questions about whether he might opt out, during a pennant drive. Would anybody's life have been better, Andrew asked, if Drew had spent a lot of time talking about leaving?

JD Drew opted out of his contract?

347 -- If somebody says "Colletti was acting like a pansy," I take that as outrage about Colletti, unless that someone talks about other men acting like pansies very casually and routinely, which I would have no way of knowing.

I am starting to wonder if there is just a big cultural divide here. I'm sitting up here in Canada talking about honor and keeping promises and all you L.A. and Hollywood types must be thinking, "Hey, the Canadian thinks people in L.A. trust what other people in L.A. say. Isn't that cute?" A writer once likened the idealistic President Woodrow Wilson at Versailles after World War I to a "Puritan trapped in a brothel calling in valient tones for a glass of lemonade." I expected Drew to keep his promise. I was shocked when I heard he did not. I guess that makes both me and Colletti as naive as Woodrow Wilson at Versailles.

I guess I missed the big fireworks. Anyway. My point (in 348; my point in 347 stands on its own) is that any statement made by a player to the press is, at least in part, coerced. If Drew hated L.A., would he be morally obligated to tell the press that he did? I don't think it's at all fair for Colletti to take Drew's press clipings as indicative of his true thoughts. Or as some new promise to the team, supplanting his contract.

If Colletti had an additional, necessarily private, promise from Drew that he wouldn't opt out, that's something to hang a hat on. Drew would be crazy to make such a promise (why bother having an agent if it doesn't get you out of that kind of meeting?), but, if he did, then there is a case to be made against his character. Absent that, I don't think there is one.

350- So, not content to impugn Mr. Drew's character, now you've decided to call the entire board, and every resident of the great city of Los Angeles names?

You stay classy Canuck.

Let's not make this about Canada vs. Los Angeles.

You gave us Gretzky, we gave you copious amounts of movie making opportunities. We're all winners here.

And Wilson was a xenophobe and a bigot.

354- And a pansy!

Do you think whoever it was who convinced Christina Aguilara that she could sing Jazz was playing a practical joke on her? Or do you think there's even one other human being on earth who thinks her singing Jazz is a good idea?

As if the combination of Jay Mariotti and Bill Plaschke wasn't enough (even with the posibility of the mute button), TJ Simers gives us one more reason to watch something else before Wilbon and Kornheiser come on:

Plaschke doing the butter-churn dance sounds like something we'll see sooner or later on Around the Screaming Horn.

352 -- I assure you, Andrew, I wasn't calling anybody names, let alone trying to make anybody in L.A. mad at me. If this board had smiley-face emoticons, I would have used one, or more. But really, the idea that L.A. and particularly Hollywood are places where nobody means what they say is part of L.A.'s own mythos about itself. It certainly isn't Canadian movies about Los Angeles that say this, it it your own city's movies -- a lot of them -- about your own city that say this [Smiley emoticon goes here]. Or is this this one of those situations where only people "in the family" are allowed to joke about L.A., but an outsider better show more respect? [Smiley emoticon]

341 ... but I was thinking of GoBears and Andrew Shimmin, who seemed to be outraged that a man in Colletti's high position would throw insults at Drew. Colletti was acting like common street trash, seemed to be their point.

Don't put words in my mouth. Your ability to paraphrase is not what you think it to be. That's not what I said, and it's not what I meant.

I know Jon mentioned this the other day, but this is a clear example of the media double standard. Colletti said he hadn't talked to the "star" of the team since the end of the season and thus was suprised and angered by his actions. Yet, Depo is the one with communication problems.

On and I have to agree with Andrew, can a player ever say: "Yeah, actually I am thinking that I am gonna test the waters this offseason. It isn't you, really, its me."
Think of Aramis Ramirez, I live in Chicago and all year long all I heard was that the Cubs were five minutes from an extension and then in the offseason it comes out that there was bitterness and it was definitely opting out. And that team wasn't in the neighborhood of the playoffs.

359 -- If I mischaracterized your position -- and if I did so it was unwittingly -- you could have clarified it. I don't have your posts in front of me now, but the sentiments I attributed to you are what I took you to mean at the time I read your comments.

360 -- Colletti said he had not talked to Drew since Oct. 6, I believe. Couldn't a conversation have taken place before that? Once the off-season starts, I don't imagine many GM's talk to players personally, if any of them do. Once players scatter after the season, most of them don't want to talk shop with management. That's what players have agents for, while they are back home enjoying their holiday.

348 I find myself thinking, is it really so bad that Drew went thru the 06 season without forcing teammates or fans to think about his potential opting out? Imagine if we had Gary Sheffield with the same issue hanging over the team. His warnings and admonitions would've created nonstop controversy the second half of the season. Drew just quietly played a great season, and then quietly slipped out of town.

Now that we know more relevant facts, I think it came down to this. Drew's agent asked for more money to waive the opt-out. Colletti said no, so to maintain his credibility as an agent, he had to strongly advise Drew to pull the trigger.

Obviously Colletti doesn't value Drew as highly as Boras presumes other teams will. In this, I think Colletti's wrong, but we know he has a weakness for the sort of player Drew isn't.

363 Colletti's wrong, but we know he has a weakness for the sort of player Drew isn't.
Too true unfortunately.

can a player ever say: "Yeah, actually I am thinking that I am gonna test the waters this offseason. It isn't you, really, its me."

Exactly. In fact, Kobe Bryant did exactly this -- he had an opt-out clause, and at the end of the season before it was to kick in, he was asked if he would exercise it. His answer was truthful: he'd probably exercise it, because he wanted to play the field a bit, but that he wanted to stay a Laker.

He was skewered for it (it may be hard to remember, since he's been skewered for so, so many things). But the general criticism was that Kobe was being disloyal, and that even if he was thinking about opting out, he certainly should have kept quiet about it.

In other words, he should have done what JD Drew did.

Frankly, I think it comes down to the fact that the local wags (Plaschke more than anyone, but he's not alone) like some guys and don't like other guys, and the standards for proper conduct are constructed retroactively to fit the occasion.

Jon's example is a great one: DePodesta failed to contact his biggest offensive producer, who then left via free agency? Criminal lack of communication! Colletti does the same thing? [insert sound of standards being rejiggered and retrofitted here] JD Drew's a disloyal hipocryte! (Made of glass!)

Re: 358

But really, the idea that L.A. and particularly Hollywood are places where nobody means what they say is part of L.A.'s own mythos about itself. It certainly isn't Canadian movies about Los Angeles that say this, it it your own city's movies -- a lot of them -- about your own city that say this [Smiley emoticon goes here]. Or is this this one of those situations where only people "in the family" are allowed to joke about L.A., but an outsider better show more respect? [Smiley emoticon]

If there's any truism about LA that I actually agree with, it's that the place is defined by its sprawling diversity. Hollywood's LA is by no means equivalent to LA as a whole. I grew up in Alhambra, a center of heavy Asian settlement and immigration, and that might as well be on a different planet, as compared to someplace like Santa Monica, much less all those movie star folk. You're right to some extent that Hollywood mythos about LA refers to the values (or lack thereof) you write about, but Hollywood is hardly equivalent to the larger LA metropolitan area. Furthermore, much of that mythos is driven by northeastern views of what LA is like--the other great media center of the United States is New York. And IIRC, continental thinkers like those of the German Frankfurt school saw Los Angeles as the pinnacle of crass soul-less Americanism--the idea of Los Angeles as cultural wasteland is certainly one still present among Northeastern elites. But all these ideas are various representations of Los Angeles less interested in SoCal and more interested in some other external motive, such as making money, or assertin one's cultural superiority. I really wouldn't take any of them terribly seriously.

WWSH

346 - "342 -- The Dodgers took Drew's statements as a promise, not just vague talk about the future, and so did I. If Drew has a different perspective on his own words, we haven't heard him present it, and don't hold your breath waiting for him to do so. I doubt he cares about explaining himself."

So if I don't promise something, but you take it as a promise, I'm still in the wrong? That's fair?

You're right, I won't hold my breath waiting for Drew to explain himself - I'm sure he can gather how receptive people would be to the explanation.

As for 345, you're lecturing on English usage, and completely ruling out the fact that there's a clever joke being made. You're taking Jim's remark strictly on face value, without any sarcasm or subtext or wink at the camera, which on a show like "The Office," is somewhat remarkable. What's interesting is that I'm not ruling out your interpretation (on some level, Jim clearly does like Michael), but you're ruling out the interpretation of both myself and Bob, each of whom has some familiarity with the English language.

I'm going to beat the drum again for A-rod. As I understand it, the Yankees and subsequent owners (unless the Yankees pay part of the payroll in the deal) are responsible for paying only $16M of his salary each season. OK. We trade Penny and hopefully Tomko for A-rod. If it's just Penny, the payroll difference is about $7M or $8M; if we can unload Tomko in the deal, our increase is only $3M or $4M. Offset by the $11M we're saving on Drew's leaving; That's $7M we can put forward to signing a pitcher or another power hitting outfielder, maybe trading for Carl Crawford or someone. Betemitt and LaRoche are now trade possibilities. Many other variations are possible.

368 How can you possibly think that Penny would fetch Arod? And throwing in Tomko somehow sweetens the deal for the Yanks?

Right after the Yanks were eliminated, the White Sox GM contacted them and offered Crede and one of their starting pitchers not named Garland. The Yankees countered asking for highly touted prospects McCarthy and Fields as well.

I choose not to discuss this subject anymore.

Canuck, if you could demonstrate that JD actually made a promise, (not a perceived promise), then I suspect more people here would agree with you.

Even if we are a bunch of LA no-values scum. ;)

369 How could anyone possibly think that Hendrickson and Hall could possibly fetch Navarro And another player? Or two months of Lugo fetch JtD? Strange things happen and everyone values each player a little differently; even personalities and prejudices enter into it. It costs nothing to ask. But I'm sure Colletti will come up with some strange moves that I could never conceive so it's all idle speculation anyway.

Or, put another way, it seems like you're convicting him based on hearsay. I'm not sure how it's done up there, but down here that's not admissable. :)

(please take that as the gentle ribbing it's meant to be.)

This reminds me of a scene from Major League, where the Indians fans are debating whether Clu Haywood hit the ball out.

"What does that mean, 'too high?'"
"You know, the trajectory of the ball..."
"What are you, a meteorologist?"

And the one guy looks at the camera and says, well you know what he says.

Drew is gone. It is what it is. Let's move on.

Gone a week to wet Vancouver Island only to return and get an early birthday present. Clippers are in 1st place and Drew is headed elsewhere. Haven't heard the particulars yet as I'm at the airport but it all sounds very interesting. Can't wait to catch up.

Hi everyone. Ken Rosenthal is reporting that Aramis Ramirez is staying with the Cubs. There goes one big bat already.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6163558

With the 11 million the Dodgers are saving on the Drew departure,the Dodgers could welcome back players such as Paul Bako,Ricky Ledee, Todd Hollandsworth, Matt Herges,Joey Eischen, and Tom Martin. Even after signing those players they might still have enough left to win the bidding war on Craig Counsel.

376 Hello!

Well, that certainly is big news. And I, for one, am happy about it. I did not want Aramis Ramirez, though I can certainly see why others did.

It also seems like 5 years, 70 million is not the "Carlos Beltran" money that his agent was talking about getting. Very interesting.

370

Agreed.

So how do folks feel about Alou?

379

I'd feel a lot better about Alou if the Dodgers played in the American League

379 - I think Alou would be a great (relatively) inexpensive stop gap. He probably replaces 90% of Drew's production for far less time and money. I would much rather sign him than Nomar for one.

Further to 380, I figure the odds are at least 50-50 that Ned brings back Lofton. Imagine an outfield of Ethier, Lofton and Alou. That's pretty scary.

I can agree about not wanting Aramis (just because of LaRoche). But I'm betting that just moves Soriano up the priority list.

383

Agreed. I think the last two standing will be Ned and Stoneman. Soriano will wind up with one very fat contract.

By the way, I would like to offer a tip of the hat to Aramis for using his contract as leverage and then staying where he wanted to be all along, for what amounts to significantly less than what he could have gotten on the open market. Quality of life does seem to count for some ball players. I'll bet someone would have given him 90 mil over 6 years.

If the Dodgers babied Alou just a Little bit more than they did with Drew, he might be able to play a full season.

Ramirez's resigning with the Cubs hurts the Angels far more than the Dodgers, it does mean that Nomar is positioned well for both local teams.

For the Dodgers, the calls have probably gone out to Soriano, Carlos Lee and Jason Schmidt. Those would be the three players that Ned would target first, he probably has time to pursue Nomar, Greg Maddux and some others.

Imagine an outfield of Ethier, Lofton and Alou.

I don't think Colletti could either.

Alou would be fine by me, I guess. He would play around 130 games, I'm guessing, put up decent numbers, and give Kemp some AB's here and there.

385

Good luck with that. As fragile as JD is, he's almost ten years younger.

Alou would be a great fit for some AL team that could DH him most of the time and let him play the outfield about 60-80 games.

384 That's assuming money is the only reason people leave. A player could choose free agency because he doesn't like his quality of life where he is, with the extra money being incidental.

If I don't like my job, and I accept another position elsewhere for more money, that doesn't mean I left because of the money.

I don't think Colletti could either.

Actually, I think he CAN...and that's what's scary...

If we nab Alou (which I'm not against) we better get someone named Soriano or Wells for that other outfield spot.

If the Dodgers signed Alou I think you would see a major upgrade in CF done somehow.

I don't think this signing hurts us TOO bad...don't forget, we still have trade options. I'd much rather not trade any prospects but sometimes you have to give something to get something.

Although, the fact that Ramirez is off the board, we only have on OF, and our best hitter is arguably an aging Jeff Kent feels a little daunting right now.

Quote from another blog:

"J.D. Drew is like a Krispy Kreme donut: mouth-watering talent on the outside, but hollow in the middle and after its all over you're sick to your stomach."
Man, its just sad to watch a guy like this. He's got so much talent, the sweetest left-handed swing on the planet, speed, center-field-quality defense, and consistently (when he plays) puts up numbers. You just want him so bad to succeed for your team because...well, because he can. But he's got no chemistry-making leadership skills. He's always out for himself. Case in point: he just opted out of his $11 mil/yr contract so that some other shmuk of a team can pay him more to end up on the DL at the worst time.

Does one have to watch a certain program to understand what is going on in some of the discussions? (No wink)

395

It helps

With Laroche and Betemit, I wouldn't have wanted to go after Ramirez anyway. Now we can work on getting someone useful in the outfield, where we need 2 starters.

397-

Really? Laroche hasn't even played a single game yet and Betemit is pretty questionable seeing as how he needs a platoon partner.

Aramis Ramirez is a 35-100 guy...hard to lose out on that.

398
Don't you think grabbing a thumper in the outfield and another strong starter are more pressing needs for the team?

Again, I think Aramis Ramirez is a fine player, but the position doesn't strike me as a glaring need, and we have a few others that are.

398 - On the other hand, we didn't lose out, we never had a chance. It seems that he wanted to be a Cub all along and in the end, he is.

I disagree with everyone who says we need two outfielders. We badly need a CF, but if we went into the spring with Ethier and Kemp in the corners... well I wouldn't be devastated. However, given an extra 11 million to play with next year I assume we will sign two outfielders and I have a bad feeling that one of them will be Soriano (can he play CF?).

398 We would have had to give Aramis at least 5 years. When you have one of the top prospects in baseball playing the same position, and a reasonable stopgap in Betemit, why not spend your money elsewhere?

While the Dodgers can't be picky at this point, it's not a small step from Drew to Alou. Sure, if Alou manages to remain healthy and productive at age 40, you'll get a similar offensive output, but the transition between him and Drew defensively could be up to three wins (this assumes Alou will continue to decline defensively). Also keep in mind that Alou had 420 at bats in 2005, and 370 in 2006. It's probably less likely he'll be useful over a full season than Drew.

Picking him up isn't the worst idea in the world, but it's a gigantic risk.

The Yankees just got rid of Jaret Wright. They traded him to, surprise surpise, the Orioles for a young reliever that's probably already better than Wright.

The Orioles have to be getting this embarrassing on purpose. There can't be any other reason*

*Other reason may be total incompetence.

403

For a team with money to spend, the Orioles make some very strange personnel decisions. I guess they think that reuniting Wright with Mazzone will make a big difference, but in the meanwhile, the Yanks got rid of someone they didn't want and managed to pick up a serviceable reliever while doing so.

[404)

I vote for reason number 2 (total incompetence)

Alou
2004 293/362/557 3.3DWS 26TWS 155 games
2005 321/400/518 1.9DWS 20TWS 123
2006 301/352/571 1.8DWS 15TWS 98

Drew
2004 305/436/569 4.0DWS 34TWS 145
2005 286/412/520 3.9DWS 13TWS 72
2006 283/393/498 4.0DWS 21TWS 146

Just a quick comparison between Drew and Alou. I showed defensive win shares and total win shares to account just a bit for accumulated stats as well. The first thing that sticks out is Alou's games have gone down every year and if the trend continues you can't exactly count on him for even 120-130 games. Drew on the other hand has seen his rate stats decrease every year. The extenuating circumstances are that Drew would somewhat naturally decline slightly from his career 2004, and in 2006 he was getting over an injury. Nevertheless, I think it is safe to say that Alou is a good bet to replace most of Drew's offense through superior power and I don't think anyone's defense is so bad as to account for 3 wins (according to these stats over the course of all three years Alou's defense was only 4/3 of a win worse than Drew's, since a 3 WS=1 win).

And how much offense can the LAD be expected to add just by playing Betemit and LaRoche at 3B all season instead of Mueller, Aybar, etc and at 1B from Loney > Nomar?

Are we proceeding under the assumption that Loney will be the everyday first baseman?

I sure hope so.

409

It doesn't much matter what assumption we proceed under, it's the Colleti/Little assumption that really matters. Ned made a comment at the end of the season, something to the effect that Loney wouldn't just be handed the job next year.

This could be a very fluid situation going into '07. Could be Loney at first. Could be Loney in right and Nomar at first. Could be Greg Brock coming out of retirement.

410

Thank you for telling me what doesn't matter. Now, again, I am asking people if they are proceeding under the assumption that Loney will be the everyday first baseman.

410-

yeah, there really are endless possibilities...heck, we could end up putting Loney in right and trading for someone like Dunn. Between free agents, the amount of money we have to spend, our prospects, and trades there are endless scenarios for how this is going to play out.

I guess the ultimate goal is to upgrade pitching and offense without trading away our farm...that's going to be tough, but definitely doable.

411 I proceed with a desperate hope to see Loney as the starting 1B next year. I am also very afraid of what Colletti might do. I do not assume that he will do something stupid, but I am afraid that he might.

What about using the money left over from Drew's departure to pursue Zito and Schmidt and then just see what Furcal, Kent, and the kids can do? I mean, a rotation of Zito, Schmidt, Lowe, Billingsley, and Kuo looks pretty attractive to me. I guess I'm dreaming.

New post up top.

"Drew's agent, Scott Boras, said the move was a "business decision" and that Drew would like to discuss a new contract with the Dodgers."

um ... how do i address this without violating rule 1?

I suspect that among Dodger kids who are not yet established major league starters, Loney has the highest score on the Colletti-o-graph, higher than LaRoche or Kemp. In addition to being a good player, I think Colletti sees Loney as "a character guy."

Loney just has to have a good spring, and then I suspect he's in.

Drew's departure, combined with Aramis Ramirez' $73 million contract, has significantly lowered my expectations for 2007. It's clear that difference-making FA's will be extremely expensive and realistically, and we need three impact players -- a starting pitching (plus Maddux re-signed) and two top hitters. We will only contend if the rest of the division also softens or if Loney, Betemit, Ethier, Billinsgley, Kuo, Broxton and LaRoche all have breakout seasons. I just hope Colletti is careful and modest in his aims, so we don't lose focus on the long-term goal.

411

Didn't mean to upset you. As long as we're talking about our wishes, I'm with you. I'd love to see Loney at first.

417

Yeah, my response seemed a bit harsh. Sorry about that. I was just wondering what everybody thought.

All happy people over here

Jon, good insight into the Drew thing, but a bit chatty perhaps. Kinda reminded me of some girls in high school, who rather than clarify they more they talk, manage only to be frustrating in their swarm of feelings, opinions, notions, qualifiers, retracts, clauses.....