Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
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3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
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12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Juan Pierre signed his Dodger contract today.
Other recent posts on Dodger Thoughts:
Dodgers Fire Two Trainers
Pierre Debate Isn't About Scouts vs. Stats
We Were All Goofus
Feed the Poor
Update: (This goes with the "We Were All Goofus" post.) From David Pinto at Baseball Musings:
Just how smart do the Cardinals look right now? In February 2004 they sign Albert Pujols to a seven-year, $100 million dollar contract. Otherwise, he'd be a free agent right now. Can you imagine what kind of money Albert would command in this class? Ten years, $300 million?
And just how foolish were the Fish not to try to sign Miguel Cabrera to a long term deal? When he's a free agent at the end of 2009, how much money will he command? If the Marlins offered him a 10-year, $80 million dollar contract last winter, do you think he would have taken it? Do you then think in this market, the Marlins could trade him at any time for loads of prospects? With this market Miguel would be silly to sign anything longer than three years. And he won't be a Marlins in 2010 at the peak age of 27. He'll eclipse A-Rod's contract.
vr, Xei
exclusive
Ned was never going to with the outfield he had currently constructed nor did he want another stop gap like Lofton because next year's market may have less available.
We will never know if Drew remained, would Nomar and Pierre be Dodgers today but Ned now has 2 players who apparently want to play here versus one talented if exasperating player who decided to go for the money.
Rankings than Ryan Church 9 million dollers a year.
vr, Xei
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=2669360
Tellement longtemps et bon débarras M. gagne!
This is mind boggling. 45 million dollars for this guy. Joke.
1) he's a good man
2) he's got a good attitude
3) he's willing to play every day
4) he "wants" to play here (really, twist his arm)
Brock, you're going to be a millionaire. So what's the problem?
They have not seen Greg during a UCLA football game.
I would think that the effect of stolen bases is based on its average value, i.e. a bad base stealer running in front of a strikeout king like Adam Dunn where a CS negates his power and a SO could result in a DP, taken into consideration with a good base stealer in front of a high-average contact hitter. I wonder if, in the case of the Dodgers, a Furcal/Pierre/Garciaparra lineup maximizes the value of speed because Pierre and Nomar hardly SO and make a lot of contact. The Furcal/Lofton/Garciaparra signings last year were widely criticized yet yielded a very productive offense. At any rate, are there any studies that look at specific offensive strategies?
Also, it's a bit irksome to keep hearing about Pierre's subpar on-base ability when his career OBP is .350. Shouldn't this be taken into consideration, along with last year's .330? Often stated here is the belief that different people value different stats, but stats vary depending on how you break them down.
I'm not exactly thrilled with this signing, but if there is a silver lining, it's the avatar Slappy McPutout. I may even consider Pierre my favorite player because I cannot say this without laughing. That, and I'm a masochist.
Zito to the Orioles: 7 years, 44 brazillion dollars, and San Tropez
I fear that Greg Brock sits two rows in front of me at the Rose Bowl and wears a UCLA visor and throws it down in disgust Steve Spurrier-style several times a game.
I judge the progress of the game by counting the visor tosses by that one fan.
I don't begrudge anyone for going for the money and my comment did not imply that Nomar nor Juan signed for less than what they wanted to play in L.A.
Right now, the only parts that I would ask for from the Dodgers would Chad, Kemp, LaRoche, maybe Loney and Elbert.
Would you trade those guys for any outfielder similar to Pierre. No one is taking Abreu, Hu, Meloan or guys like that for established MLB players.
Pierre cost the Dodgers some money (which I just don't think is an issue), no draft picks and a 25-man roster spot for the next 5 years.
He is the anti-Drew, anti-Bradley, no injuries, no outside issues but lacking big time in many of their skills. But Ned has decided that for him and the club those first 2 things outweigh that kind of talent. We will have to see how it comes out.
At home...not so much.
Really, are we going to lose the NL West for the next 5 years because Juan Pierre is playing[?]
No, that'll be because Carlos Quentin, Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson, and Brandon Webb are playing. Pierre will just be the salt in the wounds.
I thought you would be the guy wearing 5 dump dorrel t-shirts. Wrapping them around your arms and such.
And that's good because why again?
So you weren't the guy who kept screaming to install Matt Ware at QB and have UCLA run the option?
An option offense in football is the equivalent of a stolen base dependent offense in baseball.
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=2670934&name=law_keith
Highlight:
"It's made all the worse by its combined ripple effect with the decision to re-up Nomar Garciaparra for two years, leaving just two lineup spots (left and right field) for Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and James Loney... All three of these players are likely to outproduce Pierre right now given the same kind of playing time, and their combined salaries will barely top 10 percent of what Pierre himself will make this year. We've seen some surprisingly high deals so far this offseason, but this is the first one that's certifiable."
Chris Young, Carlos Gonzalez, Garret Mock, Dustin Nippert, Alberto Callaspo, Micah Owings, Matt Torra, Max Scherzer...
Wait till they start trading players for pitching.
http://tinyurl.com/ykysca
I mention this, because it would be both enlightening and fun to re-read our predictions over past moves made by the Dodgers...
And then I discover the Toaster does not archive past comments. (sigh)
So, I'm left with a link to a thread where Jon and Jay Jaffe discuss, among other topics, the signing of Derek Lowe.
https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/17097.html
Pierre career OBP-.351
Interesting
I thought it was believed by sabermetricians that batting order doesn't matter. I believe I've heard Jon mention that here, but maybe I missed a revision to that theory.
Also, OPS is not close.
39 yeah, the thing is his last two years are both down years that come after what usually is the end of a player's prime. Add in that speed doesn't usually last forever and you can make a case for bad, bad things in Pierre's future.
I'll just say I could have a good time picking that blog entry apart.
I think that you have to look at each free agent market separately and not compare them from year to year.
Bingo.
Two off-seasons ago, giving Derek Lowe a deal with $36MM over four years was immediately judged as folly. But now, it looks fairly decent.
Once again I say. Just because other GMs are jumping off a bridge, does that mean we should join them?
Dodgers.com likes to make us worried about trading prospects.
This isn't the worst signing ever. Pierre does have certain upsides. Hell, Pierre has collected over 200 hits in a season four times, something Furcal never has done. He also might not walk alot but he doesn't strikeout alot either, unlike Furcal. Isn't a hit just as good as a walk?
Problem is, you may be the most fiscally responsible GM in the game, but if your peers blow out the market you've got no choice but to follow if you want to sign a FA.
True, but he led the league in hits and still only had an OBP of .330.
Yeah, but if the market is crazy only try to sign good players or bargains. I do not think Pierre is either.
Again, using counting stats like hits is not something I'm interested in. The point of baseball is to not make an out. How often (as in %) do you fail to make an out.
If you get 200 hits in 750 plate appearances, it's not particularly impressive.
Since I'm pretty sure this entire debate has run it's course, I'll try to make this my last say on the matter.
I'll try...
Juan Pierre put that apostrophe in there.
We all hope.
Loney, Ethier, and Martin are going to be cheap for a long time...long enough to minimize the impact of one or 2 bad contracts. It is inefficient for sure, but maybe better than forking over young talent for an established MLB bat with power in this sellers market.
Unfortunately, Ned never just bagged all the prospects he didn't like and offer them for just ONE of the D-Rays outfielders...that would have been nice.
"The early contender for the worst contract of the offseason has to be the five-year deal just handed to Juan Pierre by the Los Angeles Dodgers..."
I hope Juan Pierre becomes somebody else...
he won't but it will be o.k.
I bet he gets batted #2
as others have posted that probably maximizes his ability to get out (assuming no improvement in obp) semi productively without GIDP'ing.
Independent of that, in some respects, it may be that Josh takes something akin to a CanuckDodger point of view. Josh can use stats to be critical - witness how he puts down Gary Matthews in his latest post over there - but in addition to the fact that he couldn't possibly openly criticize a Dodger transaction, he does not want evaluations to be confined by stats. (By the way, neither do I. As I keep saying, it's all about emphasis.)
Now, you can disagree with some or all of Josh's approach, of course. But in the end, Josh is a very open-minded person, and his posts are wonderfully thoughtful on a blog that could just as easily have been devoted to rewritten press releases.
gollum!
X. I don't agree with those who are putting such great value on stolen bases. Sure speed is great, when used properly. But making outs is the worst thing you can do as a hitter. Pierre makes a ton of outs. Pierre gets alot of hits. Yes, but they are singles. Well, he can steal 2nd base. Yes, and he can also get thrown out... and it's too bad he can't steal 1st base because he is only getting there 34% of the time. Stolen bases has a negative (0.02) correlation to runs scored. This is not something I made up, people 6 1/2 times smarter than me sat down and ran the numbers. The numbers don't lie. If the numbers are wrong then I would hope someone would present evidence showing that they are. As far as batting lineup construction goes. Yes, you can improve run production very slightly with lineup construction. TangoTiger has a nice writeup on this. We are talking about fractions of runs per game and a few runs per season. Also for every slot a player hits down in the lineup, over a 162 game season that player gets 18 less plate appearances. If Juan Pierre were to bat leadoff and Jeff Kent were to hit 4th, then you would be giving Juan Pierre a statistically inferior player 54 more plate appearances. If you hit Pierre 8th you would be giving him 72 less plate appearances. I'm not saying Kent should leadoff or that the order makes a huge difference, just that there are some minor advantages to how you construct your lineup, those of which I am not an expert at, but I love studying it through readings, questions and simulations. vr, Xei
gollum!
I'll put it in the Veronica Mars post. Robert Altman deserves better.
Impressive!
I'm having trouble finding a study regarding lineups on TangoTiger. If you could provide a link, cool; otherwise, I'll keep looking.
I did find this interesting though:
"There's something obvious missing from this analysis -- the benefit of aggressive base running. If a team takes a lot of risks on the basepaths, they'll make more outs, sure, but they could also take more extra bases."
The Angels paid big stupid bucks for something that is not there and chances are, it never will be.
Call it "Salary Chicken"
Ned: Man, I totally beat Bill with this Pierre signing. I mean, nobody saw this thing...Wait, he did what now?
I'm sure Ned has heard of frontloading deals.
"the deal is official. I hope McCourt got that Geico for his monayyyyyy"
sigh.
Patty and Cathy Lane were the daughters of identical twin brothers (both played by William Schallert).
A hot dog doesn't make me lose control.
Real reactionaries over there sometimes, though.
Yeah, it took me a while...
lol
Other than that, pretty much anything goes there. There are a couple of very vocal Diamondbacks fans. And about 25,000 Mets fans who speak mainly in profanities.
Some of the screen names, however, are fantastic.
Then Dodger Thoughts hit.
And it was the biggest change on the world scene since the Marshall Plan.
I think not.
Bigger than Sonny Bono going network and making fur vests popular.
I'm not holding out hopes. I've been hurt before.
I'm sure it's pretty cheap.
It would be beautiful.
1) http://tinyurl.com/ygqyaz
2) http://tinyurl.com/y68po8
3) http://tinyurl.com/y8a8dx
These guys are good with the math/stats part of the study. I like to use simulations to compare lineup constructs.
vr, Xei
Good stuff.
Plus, with the way the market has currently been going, who's to say that five years from now, $9 million won't be a bargain for a leadoff hitter.
__________________________
almost newsradio funny.
that said....i would like a job once i get out of college. I'm a marketing major and i can walk the company line just as good. Just let me be in charge of ITD and i'll only ask for 1/100th of Pierre's 2007 salary.
It's like the opposite of absolute shame.
But yeah, not absolute shame works...
"The addition of Pierre almost surely means Kenny Lofton won't be re-signed."
Uh, ya think?!
Believe it or not, that sentence made me worry that Lofton MIGHT be retained. I mean, if ESPN felt the need to even mention it, does that mean that it's not axiomatic? Nah, I'm just paranoid now. He wouldn't bench two rookies to have Pierre/Lofton/Furcal 1-2-3, would he?
Would he?
Hello?
Franz Kafka
Seriously, Dead Ball Era, here we come...
Before you go-go
Don't leave me hanging there
like a yo-yo
That title forced me to do it.
Series of posts at dodgers.com:
someone poses the thought that the dodgers need power, and asks which players other people think are in the dodgers price range.
the responses:
1) Power is overrated. Just ask last years team.
2)that is how dodger baseball is, speed and pitching
3) why do the dodgers need another power bat. this team scored plenty of runs last yr. our pitching was thin in september. i beleive martin,loney,kemp ,betemit and either in time will provide power. we still have kemp and nomar to give us 20 plus dingers. get furcal and pierre on base with a double by nomar or kent and we score two.
4) AGREED
A sample of their genius:
http://tinyurl.com/yh2bav
Arranging with the 3 worst hitters in 6-8 would probably put Loney, Betemit and Pierre down there, all left-handers.
That guy is in the lead for greatest human being ever. Seriously, my only trip to Dodgers.com message board in two years, I and I get that...AWESOME!
Stupid manatees.
Whoops. Focus. Anybody seen The Fountain?
I haven't wanted to see a movie this much in, like, forever. I'm going to see it on Friday, and am terrified that it will not hold up to my ridiculous expectations. I know that it is very esoteric, and a lot of people are dropping the whole "I don't get it" thing on it. Very 2001 reaction.
So yeah, I have a lot to say about The Fountain. But I have lost all perspective.
Oh, and it's Darren Aronovsky (Pi, Requiem for a Dream) that wrote it and directed it.
Not that I've been following its path since the day that Brad Pitt decided to do it and dropped out and almost killed the project or anything.
South Park made fun of it perfectly.
153
Yeah, I was surprised the film eventually got made. Too bad it won't make much money, but Aronofsky does not need money to make a good film.
Heath Ledger as the Joker and Ethan Hawke as Two Face? Not really thrilled about those choices, but I'll keep the faith in Nolan.
I agree with both points. I wanted Steve Buscemi for the Joker, but they wanted younger. I liked Cillian Murphy as Scarecrow, he should still be in the series since he was never caught.
Yup, I read two graphic novels.
By the same guy who did 300...which I saw by the way, and it's phenomenal.
I hope Juan Pierre has a happy Thanksgiving. He has a lot to be thankful for.
Like retarded free agent markets.
I know this has been discussed ad nauseum. But one thing continues to baffle me. Some people keep saying "well this is the market so with inflation it's not that bad of a deal."
I don't care what the market is, I don't care what the inflation rate is, paying 9 million bucks a year for Juan Pierre is NEVER okay. It doesn't matter what the market is, would ANYONE here give a league average at best player 9 mill a year? I still can't wrap my head around it...
Other than that, what's the next step? Schmidt? Zito? Dunn?
And that scares me.
Where that power hitter Plays? No clue. But if it's Adam Dunn, you've got to figure Dunn, Ethier, and Pierre in the OF, with Kemp on the horizon. I hope it's Dunn.
http://tinyurl.com/yh7kp2
I hope next week's article is just as promising. I dunno, maybe a transporter machine or something.
Im going to be sooo disappointed if that means trading Kuo.....
I guess I dont know who else we have that would be of any value to land a Dunn though, unless the Dodgers are willing to take on a TON of $ for Burrell (if available)
I dont know why but, I am not too worried about Billingsley being traded I think I just cant see him as a trading chip.
to clairify I am talking the pitcher Ned hopes to trade
In all due respect I can't see Adam Dunn in a Dodger uniform in 2007. I like many on this site don't quite understand the Pierre transaction completely, less the money but more the additional year.
I actually thought that the way to go once we didn't get either Soriano or Ramirez. would have either have tried the Abury Huff selection-far cheaper less years and a more balanced lineup. Dave Roberts would also been fine, and would have requiried less years and less money.
We could have used them until the kids are fully ready. The five years for Juan is tough
I am going to hope that if we cant trade for a power hitter Huff isnt that backup plan.....for reasons already mentioned w/ Pierre and his non value to the Dodgers and over players already on the roster
From Chicago Tribune.com-
The Cubs haven't expressed an interest in re-signing Maddux again but haven't ruled anything out. Maddux's second-half numbers compare favorably with five free agents on the Cubs' radar, not to mention the two biggest fish in the free-agent pitching pond.
Maddux went 8-5 with a 3.88 ERA after the All-Star break, including four starts with the Cubs before he was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Barry Zito went 8-4 with a 4.55 ERA in the second half, while Jason Schmidt was 5-4 with a 4.76 ERA. The Cubs are looking at Ted Lilly (7-5, 4.61 ERA in the second half), Gil Meche (3-4, 5.42 ERA), Jason Marquis (3-10, 6.72 ERA), Miguel Batista (3-3, 4.10 ERA) and Vicente Padilla (7-5, 4.56 ERA). Maddux reportedly is seeking a two-year deal and figures to wind up with the Dodgers or in San Diego.
I'm not a fan...
But more importantly, happy Thanksgiving everyone!
Anybody here willing to do this deal?
Manny Ramirez + $4M
for
Matt Kemp and Johnathan Broxton
I guess this is all well-trod ground at this point, but if there are five organizations in Major League Baseball who don't have to go out and commit five years to a marginal OF who does nothing to address the team's biggest deficiencies, it's the Dodgers.
Not to get vindictive, but this is classicly misguided SF management -- commiting too much to post-peak veterans (Michael Tucker anyone?) who will age a team into oblivion.
What a horrendous turn of events.
The Marlin's still have Cabrera for two more years. I understand it would be cheaper to lock him up now, but as great as miguel is, hes not Albert Pujols, not by a long shot.
Also their always the possibility that this was a move so we could trade Furcal. Maybe a furcal for tejada trade is in the works, or Furcal for Javier Vazquez, Furcal for Joe Crede, Furcal for Manny Ramirez, Furcal for Vernon Wells, I could go on for awhile, a lot of people need shortstops and leadoff men.
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