Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
This might have also been titled "Wasting Time on a Saturday."
The chart below lists the number of times Juan Pierre accounted for X number of bases in a game in 2006, adding together his total bases on singles, doubles, triples, homers, walks, hit-by-pitches, stolen bases, sacrifice flies and sacrifice hits, and subtracting caught stealings and double plays - all on a daily basis (thanks to Baseball-Reference.com).
Bases-per-game -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 April 0 7 4 6 2 1 2 1 0 0 May 2 7 6 4 7 2 0 1 0 0 June 0 2 11 6 3 1 2 0 1 1 July 0 4 6 1 7 1 3 3 1 0 August 0 3 9 4 4 6 1 1 0 0 Sept.-Oct. 0 5 7 7 3 2 4 1 0 0 Total 2 28 43 28 26 13 12 7 2 1I included sacrifices because, whether or not you would have agreed with the choice to give up an out to advance a runner in a given situation, the fact is that Pierre did deliver a base - it's not his fault that the bat was taken out of his hands. At the same time, I did not include productive outs, which I did not have handy on a game-by-game basis, so you have to take that into account somehow.
Anyway, in April, for example, Pierre netted out at zero bases in seven games, one base in four games, and so on. In May, Pierre had two games in which he grounded into a double play without generating any bases, thus sending him into negative territory. Pierre's best game was June 30, when he walked, singled, doubled, tripled and stole a base in a 6-2 loss to the Chicago White Sox.
I'm not expecting this chart to lead to some grand conclusion about Pierre. It's really for subjective purposes. Depending on what your expectations are for Pierre, you can simply look at the chart and tally how many games you would have come away shrugging, satisfied, elated or disappointed at his performance.
It was right when I began looking at the finished product that began musing that it might not have been worth the effort. After all, not all of those 1s have the same meaning, nor should one expect a batter to have a good game every time out. It is baseball, after all. (And, to be sure, defense is not factored in.)
Pressing on, though, I decided that for me, two bases in a game was the shrugging point - neither good nor bad. That left me with the following:
If your shrug point is three bases:
Or, we could compromise and shrug at 2s and 3s.
Again, no great meaning implied, especially without comparing it to other players. (I expect Pierre's chart would compare to the charts of other ballplayers in similar fashion that his rate stats would compare to those of other ballplayers.)
I guess the impulse that drove me to do this chart was to reinforce the very simple notion that a ballplayer who averages two bases a game doesn't get two bases every game. I just wanted an idea of how many days Pierre was likely to generate good headlines or not.
I, for one, have come to the conclusion that this signing is bad, bad, bad. I do not base this on any kind of logic (requires thought) or research (it's why I like reading Jon and Bob and others) but on the tried and true principle of "what would I do were I in control?"
I wouldn't have signed Pierre. But then, you all might remember me as the guy who wanted to start Choi so I don't know. I really don't. My best friend defended the Pierre signing and one of things he said was "we don't know what's going on and maybe there's a larger reason for this." Who am I to say he's wrong? I remember thinking years ago Phil Bradley was going to be a star--a SABR dream was Bradley. Unfortunately, Bradley was apparently a bit of a pill (when informed he was among the league leaders in HBP, one player told Bill James, "Yeah, and I bet half of them were former teammates."
I can only hope that Pierre will prove to be a bargain in the coming years but I fear that will only happen if every salary in baseball quintuples.
Oh yeah--for a guy wasting a Saturday, that was a heckuva post, Jon.
My students? Reading?
Okay, never mind.
Can there be a comparison chart to a similar player? Although Pierre is nonpareil.
Laroche3B: +8 +11 1002
LoneyRF: 0 -5 38
LoneyLF: -3 -78 67
KempRF: 0 0 65
KempCF: -1 -2 715
DYoungLF: -20 -90 304.3
DYoungRF: -17 -30 784
Abreu2B: +16 +22 994
HuSS: Not available?
Dewitt2B: +12 +20 815
Dewitt3B: +5 +19 350
PaulRF: -33 -46 993
DeJesusSS: -27 -38 991
JBell3B: -18 -56 447
Good news for Laroche, Abreu, and Dewitt, but it looks like the other guys are having problems according to this system.
The numbers on Abreu match the scouting reports. So do those of Young.
As for Kemp, it's said that he's not a good route runner in CF and probably will be too large to play out there daily but should grade out as a pretty good RF.
Theory: Wrigley Field was the wort possible hitting environment for Pierre, who needs extra outfield space to land his ping shots.
Pierre didn't chose to become a Cub. He was traded there. He had signed a multi-year deal with the Marlins, whose ballpark was a better fit for him.
Taking it a step further, perhaps Pierre got fouled up hitting in Wrigley but made some adjustments as the season unfolded. Seems came on pretty strong in the final 2-3 months. Of course, Pierre was really crummy for the Marlins in 2004, so maybe adjusting to Wrigley wasn't an issue, but I could see it being a nightmarish place for him, particularly when trying to impress a new club in his walk year.
Theory: Players that rely heavily on footspeed tend to plummet once they lose a half a step.
All the more reason to be pessimistic on Pierre, a singles hitter who at 29 presumably is in the midst of losing some precious footspeed.
Tidbit: At ages 33 and 34, Dave Roberts had the best seasons of his career. Roberts, also a lefty who relied greatly on footspeeed, is a similar hitter -- entering 2005, he was no one's idea of a slugger yet he slugged .428, well above his major-league norm.
Pierre is as fast as Roberts was at age 33, safe to assume. He's about 2-3 inches taller, giving him more leverage and has had more hitting success in his career than Roberts had entering age 33. Is it that crazy to think he can come up with two career-best years during the next five years? And even if doesn't, let's say he regularly approaches his 107 OPS-plus of 2004. Wouldn't that be acceptable?
I realize the great body of evidence is that of Pierre being a (harmless) out machine. I also realize trends suggest that will continue.
Make that Pierre was really crummy for the Marlins in 2005.
A potential good thing that might happen with Pierre for the Dodgers is the fact that he can work with Maury Wills. Wills should be able to help Pierre learn how to steal and read pitchers better. He had a great impact on Roberts.....Jayson Stark on ESPN radio last night really slamed the Dodgers for the signing. I don't know who will be available in 2008 or 2009, but what I will be upset about is if I hear that we can't spend any more on pitching and have to settle on mediocre arms. Our bullpen at this stage is far from set.
Ethier .296/.366/.463
Gonzo .259/.353/.435
Bonds isn't available yet, and wouldn't be worth much (no one in any way comparable to him played at 43). So. I hope Colletti doesn't go for Gonzo. Though, I would have thought so even without the projections.
http://tinyurl.com/yn7awv
http://www.baseball-
reference.com/r/roberda07.shtml
Document all the major league players like you did above (maybe even make happy or frowny faces for them) and publish it in a book. Chrage real money for it. They will buy it. After a few years of analysis, I'll have an opinion.
"The Dodgers are looking for a slugger and could make a trade to get one. While Boston outfielder Manny Ramirez is on the market again, a better fit would be a player who could also provide defense. Seattle third baseman Adrian Beltre, the ex-Dodger, comes to mind."
http://tinyurl.com/y7qoc2
...My pet peeve is a continual stream of one-sentence paragraphs. That is not writing in my book – I would reject it if I were an editor... One-line paragraphs are not writing – it's an easy device – it's just illogical. Anything is okay on an occasional basis – I will lay one down at times but not 27 or 35 of them and you know there are people who do that.
Posted without further comment from yours truly.
I write paragraphs as long as I need.
I get my point across.
Indeed!
Whenever anyone puts three ifs together as a condition for doing something usually I would imagine, doesn't expect it to happen or doesn't want it to happen.
Seattle would have enough money without Beltre on their payroll to overpay Schmidt or Zito instead of the Dodgers doing that.
My preference is to have Nomar play third. If he hurts himself, so be it. Loney should be the first baseman, thick and thin and throughout 2007.
I would start the season with Ethier in left and feel good about having Werth, Garciapara, and Repko available if Ethier's 2007 looks more like 2006's September and elated if his 2007 looks like 2006's July.
I may be in the minority on this but just the same I would start 2007 with Kemp in right.
I look forward to July 2007 when the need for Pierre is gone and he is traded.
P
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k
s
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Other famous baseball players born today:
Chuck Finley
Harold Reynolds
Mike Moore
Bob Walk
Jay Howell
Jorge Orta
Larry Gura
Richie Hebner
Jeff Torborg
Bob Elliott
Lefty Gomez
Fred Tenney
Hugh Duffy
Also-- a late happy thanksgiving to all DTers. I just recovered from all the cooking and got back on line.
I feel that in regards to Bob's list in 31, it's not irrelevant to note that today was also Charles Schulz's birthday.
I'll be celebrating what I believe to be one of the most anticlimactic birthdays in one's life in a few weeks.
That just seems so apropos. A blah birthday on the worst day of the week.
(Actually, the police chief may be a co-ager.)
I share a birthday with Larry Bird.
You know when you're born on the 12th day of Christmas, people give you so much stuff. Lords a leaping can't be returned and the swans a swimming just leave crap all over. At least you can cook up the eggs from the geese a-laying.
But the best part would be
FIVE GOLDEN RINGS
Elisha Cuthbert
Bo Jackson
G. Gordon Liddy
Dick Clark
Winston Churchill
Mark Twain
Jonathon Swift
Now there's a mixed bag...
Would G. Gordon Liddy ever get caught in a cougar trap?
It's got to be Mel Ott. That was Vin's childhood hero.
24 - My dad + bro + sister saw that movie last night and the two of them who had not seen it before were both angry that it was such a stupid waste of 1:20 and $8. My brother who had seen it before, came out saying he was also angry the first time but after a second showing you get over the initial shock and can beter appreciate how well-set-up a comedy it is.
Of course that does not take into account the fact that my dad was convinced that everybody Borat talks to in the movie were actors.
And then the mom and I went to see "The Queen" which was quite good. Quite.
And if we send Vin a card, we also should send one to Ross Porter. They share November 29, though Vin is 11 years older.
We also might send a card to Frank McCourt saying, "Thanks for firing Ross and keeping Steve Lyons. If the goal was to make it impossible to stand a telecast without Vinnie, you achieved it."
What about Jeff Torborg and everyone's hero: Jorge Orta?
PS Screenjam rocks too.
So the proxy I choose was Tom Goodwin in 2000, who I think we all can agree makes you vomit in your mouth a little bit. 2000 was the year we dealt Hollandsworth for him. Kevin Malone (who it would almost appear as if trying to make this analysis clean) made the trade right at the end of August, so for our purposes here, there is no month where Goodwin played for two teams. On July 30, Goodwin was with the Rockies. He made his Dodger debut on August 1.
Because I think I'll have formatting issues, I'm just going to give the season summary. Let me know if you want the monthly details.
On this season, Goodwin appeared in 147 games. 26 of the games where partials usually resulting in a disappointment or a shrug due to fewer plate appearances than normal. His stat line was .263/.346/.352 with 55 steals over 65 attempts.
Using the 2=shrug format:
74 disappointing games
24 shrugs
49 happy games
Using the 3=shrug format:
98 disappointing games
16 shrugs
33 happy games
Compromising with 2&3=shrug format:
74 disappointing games
40 shrugs
33 happy games
So what is the value of this piggy back analysis to Jon's original? Good news and bad news I suppose.
The good: we can expect more happy games from Pierre in '07 than we got from Goodwin in '00.
The bad: the proxy is Tom freaking Goodwin.
My conclusion: After spending the past hour thinking about Tom Goodwin, I need to go wash the filth off. To the showers!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_22
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6210860
"The Dodgers, seeking to protect themselves against the possible loss of free-agent right-hander Greg Maddux, are the front-runners to sign free-agent left-hander Randy Wolf, FOXSports.com has learned."
I also have the great distinction of having graduated from SUNY Buffalo, the same as one Wolf Blitzer. Needless to say, when I watch The Situation Room, I am reminded of the fine education I received and am nauseated.
One year deal with option. Hey a move I like and can deal with.
So I guess I am shocked.
Not only that, but with Wolf, LA could get some calls. From Wikipedia:
Wolf has an older brother named Jim Wolf who is a Major League Umpire. To avoid a potential conflict of interests, Jim Wolf is not allowed to work behind the plate for games his brother pitches. While generally considered to do a fair job, Luis Castillo, who at the time played for Philly's rival Florida Marlins, accused Jim Wolf of showing bias on a close play at first base.
Why do I fear for Chad Billingsley now?
Because of them losing confidence in him last season. I fear for Chad too.
I really hope the dodgers don't do something stupid like trade him. I mean, he's already a better pitcher than most in the majors, his potential is to be one of the best, he is under our control for a while, AND is being paid the minimum.
William F. Buckley Jr.
Irwin Allen
Oscar Robertson
Paul Tagliabue
Ted Bundy
Steve Yeager
Cal Eldred
People who died on my birthday:
Lee Harvey Oswald
Freddie Mercury
Pat Morita (Mr. Miyagi or Arnold?)
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6210860
http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/story/6209764
That is sad and pathetic.
Probably for middle relief. Or a shortstop.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=2677249
Meet comment 85.
He has (Aaron?) miles to go before he sleeps.
Furacl
Nomar
Robles
Martinez
Valdez
Just got back to school and saw the news on Wolf, and all I can say is that I'm thrilled. Wolf was a big time sleeper in this ridiculous free agent market. He's a similar pitcher to Ted Lilly, but I think he's actually a bit better and before his TJ surgery, he was also more durable. Props to Ned if he got Wolf for $6-7 million a year for 2-3 years because I can see Lilly getting $10+ million a year over 4 years.
Like we could if we wanted to.
You'd think Wills would have the all-time best SB percentage for the Dodgers. Actually, not. Davey Lopes does, .831. Willie Davis' .7427 also is slightly higher than Wills'.741.
I'd really like to know how Lopes managed to outdo Davis and Wills.
I theorized that since Wills was so much of what passed for the Dodger offense in his day, he may have taken more chances than wise...a version of taking a bunch of CS for the team. Just a guess. Wills had quite a few more SB attempts than Davis or Lopes.
But Wills' 104 of 113 in '62, .888 success rate, should get anyone's attention.
Hard to think of anyone less deserving of $15-$18M. (or .15-.18 cents for that matter)
I always thought Lopes had a better success rate than Wills because he was simply just a better baserunner. Lopes stole 47 out of 51 at age 40 with the Cubs in 1985.
In 1978-79, Lopes stole 89 bases and was caught 8 times.
Trade a decent reliever for Jaret Wright
Sign Jamie Walker
Sign Danys Baez
Who makes it to the playoffs first? The Orioles, Royals, or Pirates?
Aww heck, the Royals.
Nobody hates their fans like the Orioles. Is it true that of all the free agent contracts given out, that Juan Pierre's is the "best," relatively speaking?
Ever see anything written on it? Thx.
Lopes was always described as a very scientific base stealer. I have the impression that he worked very hard at base stealing.
Wills struck me as not the sharpest knife in the drawer.
http://tinyurl.com/t8cnx
Funny, I told my friend earlier about Randy and he just messaged me saying we should start the Wolf Pack at Dodger Stadium.
Nate, make him grow the goatee back before he signs, he'll look about 10 yrs younger again. Then all you have to do is bring in his favorite catcher with him...
1. Randy Johnson (42) 10.766
2. Kerry Wood (29) 10.358
3. Pedro Martinez (34) 10.199
4. Johan Santana* (27) 9.465
5. Curt Schilling (39) 8.725
6. Roger Clemens (43) 8.601
7. Jason Schmidt (33) 7.963
8. John Smoltz (39) 7.909
9. Kelvim Escobar (30) 7.888
10. Javier Vazquez (29) 7.812
11. Ben Sheets (27) 7.790
12. Chan Ho Park (33) 7.765
13. Matt Clement (31) 7.753
14. Roy Oswalt (28) 7.612
15. Randy Wolf (29) 7.43
16. Orlando Hernandez (40) 7.388
17. Kevin Millwood (31) 7.289
18. Mike Mussina (37) 7.210
19. C.C. Sabathia (25) 7.206
20. Bartolo Colon (33) 7.033
per B-Ref
Thanks.
I have an OCD-like condition with unexplained asterisks.
Forget Stoneman. Worry about Colletti. And then worry about Scully rhapsodizing about a Feliz/Betemit platoon, as LaRoche gets traded to Tampa Bay for a backup ballboy who "really knows how to win and wants to be here." Oh, the humanity!
The one thing that strikes me about a Wolf deal is that it would all be about upside. Buying low in the hope that he can recover from the TJ surgery. Very DePodestarrific. It might not work out, but it seems a smart and affordable chance to take. Actually, the Bill Mueller deal was like that, and so was the Nomar deal. Colletti really is an enigma.
An enigma wrapped in a mustache.
its still a rumor but i think its a done deal. I was browsing the espn board yesterday and some guy posted that the his brother is good friends with wolf and the dodgers signed him and it will be announced on monday.
then today, rosenthal puts his article up about the dodgers and wolf. where theres smoke, theres fire. I was just afraif it was going to be a longer, 3yr deal with alot of guarenteed money. But i like the deal rosenthal reported very much.
Penny, Lowe, Wolf, Bills, Kuo. Not bad.
Hopefully now we just go out and get Schmidt, put someone in the pen and then move on to a LF.
It's interesting that the big position players FA signed early, but the big pitchers are holding back. Waiting for Matsuzaka to set the market, maybe?
(The show was "My Boys" and his conclusion was, basically, pretty good but "not Tivo-worthy").
XM rumored this morning that the teams chasing Drew are the Red Sox, the Orioles, and the Phillies.
The Phillies? Has anyone else here been to a Phillies game when Drew appeared?
Unrelated, this guy is keeping close track of the moving draft pick order and has written a pretty good primer on how the new rules are playing out. It's from the Nationals perspective, but useful to anyone, I'd think.
http://www.farmauthority.dcsportsnet.com/
I think they should actually check their sources before they report them.
They'd hang him there for what he did in the past
Although other teams may have offered more years, he only wants one year so that if he pitches well, he could really cash in next year.
As for Danys Baez, I'd expect him to be decent by July or so. Mazzone teaches everyone a changeup, and Baltimore will be in good shape once Baez stops throwing straight fastballs on 2 strike counts.
That is one hour of my life I'll never get back!
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