So long Wolfie, take care of him for me DTers!

And hopefully this will at least help bury the idea that any player can be had by any team if only enough $$ is thrown at them...

Injury risk aside, his last full seasons stats vs Zitos last seasons stats are pretty similar and we know Zito will be getting a boat load of cash. So I like this...

16-10 221.0 3.83 1.40 .257 zito
16-10 200.0 4.23 1.27 .233 wolf

In any case, it's nothing I would lose sleep over.

And yet, from reading the last thread's comments, apparently many did.

The rumor, as far as I can tell, was printed in the Boston Herald today, and then thanks to the Internet, repeated on places like Rotoworld, picked up by baseball blogs, which are in turn aggregated by other baseball blogs, which then are syndicated out to baseball fans eager for hot-stove news. Except in this case, it's 95 percent likely to be BS. The Boston Herald? Yeah, they've got great sources in Chavez Ravine, and their scribes are big drinking buds with Lugo.

Lugo is probably sitting in a bar along a lovely windswept beach, washing down an omelette with the local ale, laughing his butt off at the angst he's caused the Blogododgersphere. My evil side almost wishes for his return, just so we can watch the mass fainting spells.

3 - Exactly. Exactly, except for the part after "laughing ..."

David Dellucci signs 3 year $11 million with Cleveland. Where was Ned on that? Over the last 2 seasons, Dellucci has slugged over .500 the and had an OBP over .360. I thought he would have been great to play RF after Drew left.

I'm still shocked that a player like Wolf can command a $7.5 million salary.

Over the last 2 seasons, Dellucci has slugged over .500 the and had an OBP over .360

But he was only 6-12 in stolen base attempts...

6 Dellucci at 3.5 mil a season would look like a steal in RF next to Juan at 9 mil in CF

Delino 4 Pedro would look like a steal next to Juan at 9 mil in CF

3 I heard he was in a dark room, just him and a huge plasma screen watching a loop of the pierre signing while slowly wringing his hands and salivating.

8 That's the thing though, Dellucci doesn't play CF so you can't compare salaries; same thing with the Catalanotto deal. That being said, Dellucci has long been a favorite of mine but we don't need anyone else who isn't a superstar blocking Loney/Ethier/Kemp in the outfield.

According to the latest Boston Globe speculation:

"Lugo may take longer, though the Red Sox have clearly signaled their desire for the former Devil Rays shortstop, who had a .373 on-base percentage before being dealt to the Dodgers in midseason. The Giants and Cubs, along with the Orioles, are teams with interest, in addition to the Sox, and the Dodgers are expected to offer Lugo arbitration."

http://tinyurl.com/yagbmc

(last sentence)

A couple thoughts:

I think Wolf can be anywhere from a #3 to a #5 depending on how far he has recovered from TJ surgery. In any case, if we have gained a good citizen as noted in Jon's column, the extra good karma can help us as well.

Regarding Juan Pierre:
We are paying him $44 mil for 5 years, Angels got "Little Sarge" at 5 years for $50. For one mil more a year, you could of received anotehr great defensive CF that has a decent gun for an arm and some pop in his bat. You probably lose some points in batting average in steals and Little Sarge is older but I still think the Angels will get a little more bang for their buck for the first 3 years of their deal.

All said: Both players took advantage of the inflated market prices and both teams had to overspend to fill a need.

I like the Wolf signing (not to be confused with a wolf sighting which is entirely different). I especially like the 2nd year option which appears to be heavily in the Dodgers favor, and adds to the low-risk, high potential for reward scenario. It does seem absurd that 7.5 million a season is a low risk deal, but there's really no other way to look at it when you consider that we didn't have to trade any one and we didn't lose any draft picks (correct me if I'm wrong on that point). It's the new MLB math.

So now how will the rest of the 2007 rotation shape up? It's possible that this will be the end of the deals, but it feels like it's going to be a busy offseason and we're not even halfway through it. A number of posts have mulled over the possibility of signing Zito or Schmidt and then dealing another pitcher for the big bat that we are all desperately chasing like the aforementioned Ahab and his white whale.

On that note, here's some food for thought:

Penny Schmidt
Year IP/G ERA+ Year IP/G ERA+
2006 5.7 106 2006 6.7 125
2005 6.0 104 2005 5.9 94
2004 6.0 130 2004 7.0 139
2003 6.1 98 2003 7.1 183

At nearly an inning more per outing, and a whole lot more effective while he's out there Schmidt sure looks a whole lot better than Penny. So am I deluding myself by thinking that we could actually sign Schmidt and then deal Penny (coupled with a prospect or two but not our top tier prospects)for a big bat at LF or 3B? In this crazy market there has to be some value for Penny, right?

3
I hope that it is 95% BS, but I am not so sure. Lugo goes with Ned's whole speed obsession. Maybe he envisions an infield like this:

Kent 1B
Lugo 2B
Furcal SS
Garciaparra 3B

This puts LaRoche off by no more than a year because Kent is gone after this season and Garciaparra can just shift back to 1B.

That said, it just seems a bit insane to go down that road.

Wolf signing gets a thumbs up. If 9 million is the new 3 million, then 7.5 million must be the new, what, 2.5 million? The upside that Wolf has is much greater than the downside of losing 7.5 million.

Wolf- 2/15
Nomar- 2/18
Pierre- 5/44

Call me crazy, but I'd rather spend 5/77 on one difference making player, than average players that dont make a difference other than taking up payroll.

especially like the 2nd year option which appears to be heavily in the Dodgers favor

Well, it automatically vests if he pitches 180+ innings. If those are 180+ of Jeff Weaver/Brett Tomko quality innings, is that really a good thing?

13. I would rather have Pierre than Matthews. While Matthews defense is far superioir, removing last year he is a career .250 hitter. He is Adrian Beltre. A one year pony. He will be back to .255/.320/.436/.756 next year (his 2005 numbers). This guy pulled off the biggest robbery since DB Cooper jumped out of a plane. And to top it off LAA will be lucky if he dresses for 130 games. IMO, this was the worst signing of the off season so far. I'm sure something will beat it before spring training but for now this is the 2007 Razzie Award.

Given how hard Ned went after Furcal last year and the fact that it looks like a great signing given the current market, I would be shocked, shocked I tell you, if Ned tried to move him.

17
Problem is, there are no 5/77 difference making players, with the exception of Drew, and we all know how Ned feels about him.

Nomar is not an average player. And there isnt a difference maker available for 5/77

Old Friend Danys Baez has a very intelligent agent. According to Ken Rosenthal, Baez's new contract will pay him $500,000 each time he is traded.

A demerit raise!

19 - Only time will tell whether the LAA will get burned by this deal or come out smelling like a rose. If he produces in the first 3 years and they get to another WS, who's to say it was bad, but if he turns out like Devon White did in his turn with the Blue, then they will deservedly get the Razzy!! I just hate that we had to give a 5 year deal for JP, Dodgers have been burned too many times with deals longer than 4 years. At least JP isn't a pitcher. If Schmidt wants longer than 3 years, then I think we should pass given his age and chronic groin problems.

He will be back to .255/.320/.436/.756

We would be thrilled if Pierre OPSed .756 this year.

More on Manny from Buster Olney's blog on ESPN.com

Heard that Boston's pursuit of Julio Lugo, as its next shortstop, has reached the 5-yard line. The last yards will be navigated in the week ahead, and so he and J.D. Drew will theoretically provide the offense with enough depth that the Red Sox would feel comfortable trading Manny Ramirez -- to the Dodgers, in all likelihood. In the end, I'm guessing that the Red Sox will wind up with L.A. first baseman James Loney or third baseman Andy LaRoche within the package of players they get for Manny.

That Buster Olney is one funny guy.

The things one learns at Motherboy

I started thinking Loney was the guy they'd want. They would prefer to move Youkilis back to 3B after Lowell's contract is off the books in 2008. Or maybe we take Lowell back in the deal. Hmmmm.

18
Good point, but in the three seasons (out of 8)that Wolf has pitched more than 180 innings, he has a 3.92 ERA. Certainly not Koufax like numbers, but for 8 million per season it looks like a good deal compared to other above average starters. So if he actually reaches that milestone, than we will likely get our money's worth.

28 - LOL

22- He is when he plays first base.

I like Lowell as a player, but not for the Dodgers. I hope to see LaRoche at Chavez Ravine manning third base in September 2007 and beyond.

Then again, I hoped to see Loney at Chavez Ravine manning first base in April 2007 and beyond...

All these rumors have me increadbly nervous, I really wanted to see us make a big splash with pitching and bringing in the kids to play the regular positions. I still can't get a read on Ned, so it's possible he still may pull a rabbit out of his...,I for one am pulling for such an outcome and hope he might have it in him.

I need to stop reading DT. All this talk about trading prospects is making me sick to my stomach. Seriously, Manny will make the Dodgers a contender right away, but how long will Loney or LaRoche or Broxton or some combination of them be awesome for Boston? Ugh...

This is one time to relax. Buster Olney is way dumber than Ned Colletti. Good reason not to hire Buster Olney to do anything but pontificate behind ESPN's ivory insider tower, but that's all.

from SI..."winning bid for Japanese left-hander Kei Igawa was for about $25 million".......really, really hope we didnt win that one.

I am not sure what to think of this Manny talk. Great hitter. Instant credibility for this team.

But i am somewhat infatuated with Loney. I would hate to see him go. Same with Brox and CBills.

Not sure what exactly BoSox is looking for.

35 It doesn't give you a good feeling picturing Theo and Bill James sifting through our cupboards.

I think it is insane for the sox to be trying to trade manny....yeah he has issues but who is going to hit behind Big papa? The guy is never going to see a good pitch to hit. He will be walked 200+ times.

40 Wily Mo Pena? Potentially J.D. Drew. They aren't Manny, but you certainly don't want to walk Ortiz to get to those guys.

Update: At Wednesday's press conference introducing Wolf and Juan Pierre as Dodgers, the team will officially unveil the 2007 Dodger uniform with last names back on the back.

35
If we have to give up more than one of any of our A+ young guys (Broxton/CBills/Loney/Kemp/LaRoche) for ManRam this is the wrong deal.

Any word or rumors on Gagne out there? Any movement on the Saito front?

I think Broxton can be our closer if necessary, but I'd like to think we sign either or both of the above guys.

If Drew is being courted for 14 million a year, can't we consider matching that?

I also don't see Lugo coming back although I still think he's a bonafide hitter with some pop, there just isn't a place to play him unless he is an outfielder. I know he says he's a shortstop. He'll end up in Boston.

Juan Pierre and Randy Wolf both have two first names.

That is you think Wolf is a proper first name. Ask Mr. Blitzer.

They'll fit in well with Jeff Kent and Russell Martin. And, in a stretch, Marlon Anderson.

why do these stupid manny rumors have to happen every winter? makes me way too nervous.

its also really annoying that the red sox are raiding 2 out of 3 of our type A free agents.

cubs offer schmidt 45M over 3 yrs

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/baseball/mlb/11/28/schmidt.cubs/index.html

thats going to be hard to top.

Well someone finally confirmed that Ned was angered enough at Boras over the J.D. Drew thing to eschew all his clients. Guess the only Boras client the Dodgers will have for the next few years will be Lowe.

Colletti made a mistake with letting the Drew thing get him emotionally, but I don't think the resultant policy of working within an avoid Boras clients paradigm is necessarily a bad thing.

I would think that Schmidt would want more years than that. But maybe it would be smarter for him to go three years now and then go three years again when he's 38.

The Cubs are pulling the Furcal move on us! We probably offered Schmidt 4/56.

50 Who's someone?

50 the l.a. times

henson has a dodgers q&a up...

No. Even before signing the left-handed Wolf to a one-year deal with vesting and club options, the Dodgers had no intention of pursuing Zito — despite numerous published reports to the contrary.

interesting.

this mad me LOL in the library...

Kent holes up at his sprawling Austin, Texas, ranch during the off-season and normally doesn't put himself through rigid weight training or disciplined workouts, preferring to stay in shape through old-fashioned cowboy tasks such as chopping wood, mending fences and herding cattle

It's really sad what's happened to the Times under their current ownership (regime). There are still some fine writers there, of course, but the Sports section is no longer the first "Go to" site that it used to be for me. Ah well, I'll always have memories.

As for Wolf, I said it before and will repeat myself (like the chinese food I had for lunch) - a very good, low-risk signing. Much better than Tomko last year.

Nate, what's the draft choice situation if the Red Sox do raid two of our type A free agents? (I know this has been covered before but I can't keep track...)

There is a lot to argue against getting Manny Ramirez but when he retires, arguably he will be known along with A-Rod as the best RH hitter in his generation. Pujols is great and his numbers may surpass Manny's but once Manny hits his 500th home run, he will join the following list of players who have hit over .300/.400/.600, hit 500 or more home runs and have over 1500 RBI.

Babe Ruth
Ted Williams
Barry Bonds
Jimmie Foxx
Manny Ramirez

Interestingly 4 of those players played in Boston, Ruth of course, did most of his damage in Yankee Stadium. Its possible that Manny will fall off this list since he is right at .600 for his career slugging but he has already picked up HOF numbers.

58

We would get the sox first round pick for signing drew, the sox second round pick for signing lugo, plus two more compensation picks between the first and second round.

I know this has been said before, too, but isn't the Dodgers offering Lugo arbitration, if that does happen, not really the sign of the apocalypse as much as it is the predicted part of the process of letting him go and getting a draft pick out of it? I'm sure, as others have said, that he has no interest in returning, yet alone what the Dodgers think. Anyway, I really think that's as far as the Dodgers "interest" goes.

60 Thanks. And 48 that's bad... how?

Don't know if anyone else has heard, but Gammons just said that the Red Sox were waiting until Sunday to sign Drew because of a stipulation in his contract that he can't be offered arbitration. I hope this isn't true, I'm sure everyone here is aware of what that means.

If Kent cannot play second and must move to first base, Wilson Betemit would move from third to second base and Nomar Garciaparra would move from first to third.

Why can't Kent and Nomar just flip flop?

I just wish [Pierre] were more selective at the plate. He could afford to be because he makes contact nearly every time he swings, so he could get deeper in the count without worrying about striking out. He'd walk more and make fewer outs.

Henson gets it!

Argh. Would that mean that instead we'd get, as they say in Yiddish, bubkas?

Good to hear Werth was taking batting practice, btw. Sounds like the Dodgers will consider bringing him back if they don't acquire another OFer.

Do the draft picks automatically change hands if a player signs before the deadline?

Otherwise, if Drew's contract said he couldn't be offered arbitration, why would the deadline matter to the Sox? The Dodgers would be contractually obligated to decline arbitration anyway, so no lost picks.

I thought the word was "bupkis"

58 Depending on how many Type A FAs Boston signs, their picks go in the order of how highly rated those players were in the ratings.

Assuming they only sign Drew and Lugo, the Dodgers would get Boston's first and second round picks plus two supplemental picks between the first and second round.

Now if Boston were sign someone like Zito or Schmidt, the Dodgers could lose the first round pick (Zito) or the second round pick (Schmidt) based on their ratings.

BTW - To show you how the ratings work, Delucci was a Type A free agent while Randy Wolf was Type C.

67 Yes someone posted the exact CBA language elsewhere- signings before Sunday automatically trigger compensation. Ken Gurnick had no idea about the clause in his mailbag last week re: Drew compensation.

http://tinyurl.com/y5m2aw

It's my understanding that a team automatically gets the picks if a player is signed before the deadline. The Giants supposedly are doing a similar thing with Mark Loretta; waiting until after the deadline so they can save picks as Loretta probably won't be offered arbitration.

71 Giants saving draft picks? Sabean must be asleep at the wheel.

Might that explain the "Dodgers want to offer Lugo arbitration" rumor? Whether it's true or not, it might have been leaked to influence the timing of his signing.

Hot Stove season is as bad as election season. ;)

73 - I think we're conflating two rumors. The concept that the Dodgers might want to offer Lugo arbitration isn't earthshattering at all.

The idea that the team would sign him outright to a free agent contract, floated by the Boston Herald and apparently only by the Boston Herald, would be an omen of something big.

Again, my guess is that the second rumor is bogus - with a possible explanation being that the Herald reporter confused the two topics.

63: Does anyone actually know if it is true that Drew's contract forbids the team from offering arbitration this year?

Actually the deadline to offer arbitration to a free agent is Friday December 1st. I am not sure why everyone is saying that if a player signs before Sunday, the team that lost the player automatically gets compensation. I believe that deadline is also this Friday.

Buster Olney handicapping the Manny Ramirez negotiations:

The Dodgers, who are starved for power hitters, loaded with prospects and could probably offer the best possible package of youngsters, from third baseman Andy LaRoche to pitcher Chad Billingsley to outfielder Matt Kemp. Before the August 31 trade deadline, the Red Sox tried to pry first baseman James Loney from L.A. in return for pitcher David Wells, but the Dodgers refused. The Red Sox may resume their pursuit of Loney and perhaps relief pitcher Jonathan Broxton.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2677627

49 The Cub's spending spree has me worried for my job.

I never trust any grown man named "Buster."

68 Oy, I'm a bad Jew.. a very bad Jew.

Gotta respect this headline:

Sox' fascination with Drew obscene

http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/view.bg?articleid=169382

Assuming this Manny Ramirez trade happens, I hope the GM's are traded as well.

BTW, here's a quote from AP regarding Alfonso Soriano's contract:

'Soriano's deal gives him a complete no-trade provision and guarantees a suite on Cubs road trips, according to contract information obtained by The Associated Press. In addition, Soriano is guaranteed six premium tickets for each home game during spring training, regular season and the postseason -- and for the All-Star game if he is selected.'

83 Probably includes a subscription to ESPN the Magazine, and he gets to keep the MP3 player.

84 Better than the ESPN cell phone

81
Do you think that Drew would be the highest paid player ever who has not played in an All Star Game?

50
If Coletti is this peeved at Boras, I wonder if that means that Gagne is officially off of his shopping list.

84 - LOL

86 - Somebody this offseason is likely to become said person.

77 - Maybe two years of Manny and give up the future on Broxton, Billz, or Loney/Laroche is making me nervous. I'm afraid that Manram's stats will send Ned into a "hypnotic trance" where he just sends our present and future blue chippers to the Sox. I am frightened! Please Ned, Don't go into the trap. Turn away from the
Manram carrot dangling from the Red Sox window. It's fools gold...

Simmer down. Ramirez is too good a player to interest Colletti. He prefers dumpster diving for used WalMart type merchandise.

81 -

"Why settle? If you're J.D. Drew, you can have the best of both worlds. You can give less than your best effort and still make $14 million a year from the Boston Red Sox. What a country. What a sport. What a big, big mistake."

A guy who's known for less flair and more results - even the author cites JD's stats - is what is wrong with our country? Voting right revoked!

87 - If this is true, then Bye, Bye Gagne, it was nice knowing you! They better keep Saito and Broxton then and forget Manram!!

90 - WalMart prices would be a nice compliment to WalMart merchandise. Oh well.

Ramirez strikes me as the kind of player that Colletti wouldn't want. If Colletti got him, that would (once again) render the whole chemistry discussion moot.

No arbitration for Drew, laaaame.

I am already expecting us to trade for Manny, so if it is between Loney and LaRoche, I want to keep LaRoche.

Ok, so you don't want to trade blue chippers for ManRam, but who would you be willing to trade blue chippers for (within reason)? I don't think Miguel Cabrera would ever be on the market at his salary, and Pujols isn't going anywhere. I'm not saying blue chippers need to be traded, just who (within reason) would you trade them for?
vr, Xei

Lugo and Furcal have had some issues in the past and Tomko had problems in the Giants clubhouse. Ned does not always use that character stuff.

96
Does Ethier count as a blue chipper? I would trade him.

I think the perception of dogging it (or taking days/plays off) is what he ment.

89, 94
I wonder what Ned sees as the situation at Chavez right now. Manny would be a "win now" kind of player whose contract eventually outlive his usefulness because of the perceived requirement that both of his option years be picked up at $20 mil per.

He (hopefully) is taking a longer view of things where Martin, LaRoche, Kemp, et al. are roaming Dodger Stadium for years with a few pieces to be added as needed. The Marlins have won two World Series this way and it seems as if they could be there again in 2-3 years with the crop of players they have now.

100 I think getting to the playoffs this season might have tempered any serious desperation or a win now type attitude.

Has anyone heard anything about Brazoban's possible status for next spring?

100 The '97 Marlins were hired guns with only a few exceptions (Renteria). The '03 Marlins were a young team but the key guys came via trade or FA (Pudge, Lee).

Knowing what we know about Colletti, it would surprise me if Loney, Pierre and Ethier is our opening day OF. Sounds like our Grabowski, Roberts, Encarnacion trio coming out of spring training 2004. He's either gonna bite on a big name like Manny or settle on a guy like Luis Gonz or Floyd. I just don't see him playing the kids at 4 of 8 position spots.

Individual curling and team luge were not accepted as Olympic events at an IOC meeting in Kuwait today.

Ski-cross was added.

97 - Sure, I've been saying that from almost the beginning. But Ramirez is a bigger character/chemistry fish to swallow.

100 Actually that's not altogether true.
The 2003 Marlins did have Miguel Cabera and Josh Beckett who were originally signed by the Marlins but Derrick Lee, Mike Lowell, Brad Penny, Carl Pavano, Dontrelle Willis, Ivan Rodriquez and Juan Pierre were all acquired through trades or free agency.

The 1997 Marlins had its share of players they either drafted or signed through their system as well as players they signed through the expansion draft but again they signed several free agents, Brown, Bonilla, Alou and trades for players like Gary Sheffeld. Which is one reason why they dumped all those players following the 1997 season.

So while its true that maintaining a core group of players does have its benefits, it does not necessarily mean that it is going to be any better than assembling a team through trades and free agent signings. At best it is done some sort of combination.

Is ski-cross like snowboard-cross or whatever you call it? Sounds cool.

104 What about Madden 2009?

105
Maybe he will say Grady knows how to handle Manny and they get along great. I could definitely see him saying that.

107

Yes, it is. It appeals to people who like to see competitors wipe out.

In Fantasy land (my mind, not the computer sport)the idea of trading Drew and Lugo for Manny has me really excited. To bad that's not what we are doing in reality.

I read it was mixed doubles in curling that got turned down, not individual curling.

I'm far more concerned about Manny's knee (or knees) than his attitude. The thought of him roaming the LF expanses of Petco, AZ and Coors makes me nauseous.

112
I went by the BBC's report on curling.

I'm not quite sure what team luge is. I assume there would be a competition with all the sliders together separate from the individual and doubles competition. If so, bet on Germany!

While I'm all for hoarding our blue chippers, don't you have to bite the bullet sometimes and make the move for a marquee player? I concede that Manny's getting older and somewhat injury-prone, but I'd be willing to dangle one of our studs (preferably Loney) along with some slightly lesser prospects to get it done. If they're asking for two of our grade A prospects, they'd better chip in on Manny's salary and even then I'd prefer not to do it.

We must remember that while we envision our rookies being Dodgers for years and years to come, we have to remember that they're only under our control for 6 years so unless we lock them up long term we won't even get some of their peak years at a discount price.

For the sake of argument, let's say Ned does the unthinkable and trades 3 of our prized prospects plus 1 of our sub-standard relievers for Manny Ramirez and cash. Let's say the players that get the trade made are Loney, Ethier, Miller, and Tomko.

Suppose Manny demands that both option years be guaranteed. Ned complies with Manny's wishes, but the Sox have to go so far as to split Manny's contract 50-50 with the Dodgers. As recent tradition goes, the better the prospects, the higher the "cash" compensation. Bud Selig performs his typically rubber stamp and approves the trade.

If Manny is owed $39MM over the next 2 seasons plus 2 options vested at $40MM, that's $79MM for 4 years.

McCourt would be on the hook for $9.875MM per season for 4 seasons, plus performance bonuses and $15.5MM in deferred money from 2011 - 2026.

In light of the current market rates, and as much as I value young/cheap talent, this is a trade I'd be comfortable with.

116 I think I'd be okay with that plan since I don't see Ethier as a blue-chipper per se. I'd hate to have Miller as a throw-in given his upside, you think Stults could be a comparable throw-in?

115 - That's also assuming every blue chipper pans out.

We've all understood that:
1. Manny is a hall of fame caliber hitter.
2. Manny is a headcase.
But how do those separate points come together?
Or rather, at 34 years old, how much of a pain do you have to be to get your hall of fame career run out of town?
As Buster Olney pointed out in his blog today "I bet we only know the tip of the iceberg about how Manny Being Manny has been a daily issue for the team."

Wait, how does Grady Little get along with ManRam? That could affect their interest level, too, along with the injury status.

After what Canuck said about Miller yesterday, we cannot deal him.

Glad to finally joing you all! Dodger Blue pride! Grady is known to have a great, professional relationship with most, if not all of his players. As long as Manny would be willing to play, I think Grady will get the most out of him, along with the help of former Red Sox teammates like Nomar, D Lowe, and even Bill Mueller in the front office. However, I would hope before the finalization of any deal, that a serious discussion would take place between Manny, Ned, Grady, etc. Here is to hoping Ned and the Blue make the right decision for all involved.

119 Interesting Olney quote. For a guy who claims to know all sorts of things he doesn't know, to use his own ignorance of something as a talking point is bizarre.

I'd be mightily impressed if the Dodgers could essentially trade Lugo, Drew, 1 top prospect (not Billz), one 2nd tier prospect, and one other major league throw in (Tomko?) for Manny Ramirez. I'd still think that Colletti shot himself in the foot by closing the door to Drew's very reasonable opt-out (given the market he'd have been passing up otherwise), but the wound would end up being only superficial.

I could live with a Manny-Pierre-Kemp/Ethier OF. Pierre would have to be stationed in Left-Center on a permanent basis, and Kent would have to play a DEE-EEP 2nd base, but the offense would be fun to watch.

In extremely minor news, the Dodgers signed LHP Matt White to a minor-league contract. Here are his career major and minor-league numbers:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/W/Matt-White-1.shtml

Doesn't look like anything special, but you never know

I wonder if a package for ManRam could be centered around Navarro and JtD ... oh wait ...

Oh, and does anyone know the broadcast info (if any) for tomorrow's unveiling of Pierre, Wolf and jerseys with names?

96, 115 - I'm coming from the perspective that although a tremendous hitter, how many years of true production will we receive given his aching knees in LF and his penchant for taking time off for reasons known only to Manny. Meanwhile we will have given up Loney, Broxton possibly along with Miller for several years of great production out of Dodger Blue. Epstein is a clever snake oil salesman, I would be wary. I still think he will be far better off in the AL when he can DH more as he gets older.

123 Besides his irritation with Boras, I just don't think Colletti likes players like Drew who don't have much fire. That's not to say that Ned wishes he still had him or that he wouldn't re-sign him at a discount rate, but I doubt it's a guy he'd pay full price for.

Of course Manny's lackadaisical play kinda falls in the same boat, but our need for a power hitter makes just about everything else moot (except for Bonds).

yankees win the bid for igawa..25M

wow.

Also, the Yankees were the winning bidders on Igawa, not much of a surprise there.

127 Should say "Ned doesn't wish he still had him"

I was thinking it was the Mets who would have won the bid..considering their huge need for a SP. it looks like the Mets are putting all their eggs in the Zito basket.

With what the other reported teams in the running for Manny can off the sox compared to what the Dodgers have, it's hard for me to understand how the Sox could want both Broxton and Loney. I say neither, we have other chips that could easily surpass those of the Giants. Dewitt, Young, Orenduff and Alexander. Also why wouldn't a Penny and Hall for Manny be a realistic possibility?

Looking back at the Rotoworld archives, it seems that Manny went down with patellar tendinitis last year, anybody know if that's something to be worried about going forward? It seems like he should have been able to play after only a week of rest or so, but Manny kept saying he couldn't go.

132 It doesn't matter if we can offer the best deal, it's whether our deal is a satisfactory offer for the Red Sox. If they don't like anyone's deal they can just stick with Manny for now, there's no deadline or anything.

126. After 2-3 years we could flip Manny over to an AL team to DH if his fielding became that bad and still get something in return plus the 2-3 year shot at NL supremacy. Not that I'm for it, just pointing out just because you have someone locked up long-term does not gaurantee that player will be on your team for the duration of his contract. I don't see Pierre necessarily being a Dodger for 5 years. There's always a greater fool out there.
vr, Xei

Is there a statistical consensus that Manny is a bad defensive player?

132. The Giants (if they made the deal) would involve a 3rd team (for example) like the Orioles to make the deal work since both the Giants and Red Sox have similiar needs. So, just because a team like the Giants may not have the prospects we do, there are ways for them to work out a deal, though it would be more complicated, but yet very doable.
vr, Xei

132
I like this better than dealing one of our A+ guys, but it seems that the Red Sox are intent on busting Ned's stones. I like giving up Penny if we can sign Schmidt.

136. Yes, he's a 0.91 on the Gumby index.
vr, Xei :)

137

the third team would still want quality players from the giants; which the giants do not have outside of cain.

Is it true that Drew's contract exempts the Dodgers from offering arbitration, which would exempt them from getting draft picks for him?

Still wondering: Did Pierre get no-trade powers?

141

we dont know yet, only gammons has apparently said something about that.

no, he did not.

135

Haven't the Red Sox been attempting to trade Manny for several years? Hard to know if offloading him in the offseason of 2008-09 would be doable.

On another note, it sure appears that the Dodgers have more leverage than the Red Sox in these talks -- provided McCourt is gagged and sequestered on a remote island.

142 -- thanks

By the way, if the Angels can deal for Joe Crede, then why can't we? LaRoche is not guaranteed, and Crede is approximately what we dream LaRoche could be if he reaches his potential.

I believe a signed free agent does have to stay with his new team for X amount of time - I forget how long.

145

because Crede is not worth chad billingsley, which is basically our equivelent of ervin santana.

138

If you want Schmidt and Manny, where does the payroll go? The Cubs reportedly are offering Schmidt $44 million for three years. Manny is guaranteed $38 million in salary, $8 million in deferred money and probably would insist on guarantees for at least one of his two $20-million options. Even if you offset Penny's remaining guarantee -- something like $18 million for two years -- that's a ton of dough coming onto the books, especially after throwing $52 million at Pierre/Wolf.

No, LaRoche we think can be better than Crede.

143 In the past they were sitting back and asking for the moon in major league talent going for AROD or Tejada or Nomar/Magglio in a 3-way IIRC. Now it appears they're content to go with a Pena/Crisp/Drew OF for a few years.

Why would a player have such a stipulation in his contract, besides to further spite a team they're already screwing over? Wait, this is Drew and Boras we're talking about here... probably a standard Sadism Clause.

I guess the only thing I can see is that if a team wasn't giving up picks, they'd pay the player more money on the open market.

I think at least.

In Crede's "breakout" year he had a .323 on base percentage. If that's the high end of LaRoche, he needs to go immediately.

Howdy Koufax32.

Did the Angels forget they have Brandon Wood?

Does anybody remember if the yearly Manny Ramirez trade request began before or after they fired Little and hired Francona?

I believe it started after Grady was fired.

156 The AROD/Manny, Nomar/Magglio deals were to go down in Dec 2003 the same month they hired Francona.

http://tinyurl.com/ygu988

the Wikipedia entry on "Manny being Manny" is quite amusing

http://tinyurl.com/yzylvx

151 more to help ensure as many contract offers as possible rather than the gm saying, 'oh well since we dont have to give up a draft pick here is an extra x mil per year'. The more bidders the more likely he gets people bidding against each other which means a bigger payday.

140. The 3rd team could get players from both teams. I'm not trying to argue that the Giants have more to offer, just saying that it could get done. vr, Xei

Am I the only one that absolutely does not want to see Ethier traded. Just seems to come up....a lot.

A "comical" take on the J.D. Drew and Manny Ramirez trade stories from a Red Sox perspective.

http://www.soxaholix.com/tp/

No.

163. comical?
vr, Xei

163
I agree with XeiFrank on that one and they clearly know nothing about prospects.

163 - I enjoyed that.

163 Love it although why don't their Bahstin accents kick in until panel 13? They should be referring to "rumahs" from the get go. So I think these guys are just west coast transplants feigning interest in the Red Sox.

162 - no, you're not the only one.

What are the odds of Werth being anywhere near where he was before the injuries? I thought he had a great deal of potential and hoped he'd be a part of the Bums for a while. Could he be the answer in right? And if so, what does that mean for Kemp?

I wouldn't mind seeing an outfield of Ethier, Werth, and Kemp by spring training 2008 - or am I crazy?

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/018553.php

Willy Aybar, above-average fielder. Wilson Betemit, below-average.

166 I don't think the intention was to downgrade any team's prospects per se, but to reinforce the importance of Manny to the Red Sox and how much his offense would be missed. At least that was my take.

There is also a lesson to be learned regarding the recent Lugo speculation.

So, this latest Manny article is funny. http://tinyurl.com/ww8xw

For one thing, it spends a lot of ink speculating that San Diego is a likely destination for Manny, apparently simply because Epstein has traded with San Diego in the past. This despite the fact that the actual analysis in the article clearly points away from San Diego (NL exec quoted as saying too much money for Alderson, noting that leaving the AL and playing in the huge Petco outfield probably wouldn't appeal to Manny who can block any trade).

Then, re the Dodgers, at the beginning the piece indicates they may be in the hunt:

The Padres were identified as "an interested party" by a team source, there was further confirmation that the Giants had spoken with the Red Sox about Ramírez, and the Dodgers were among the teams that have "kicked the tires" about the left fielder.

But near the end, we get this:

The Dodgers, meanwhile, spoke with the Sox during the GM meetings but those talks went nowhere after Boston asked for LA's top prospects.

I realize these two things aren't inconsistent, but the overall presentation leaves something to be desired.

Unless it changed with the new CBA, I'm pretty sure the first day newly signed free agents can be traded is June 15.

173 -- Party at D4P's house on the 16th!

174- I'm not going unless he retracts his heinous chewing gum smear (from a couple of threads back, while my back was turned) and apologizes for it.

And buys me a pony.

Will Torii Hunter be there?

175 And I'm not going unless you take back your outrageous comments about grad students!

And buy my books for next quarter.

177- This is sort of delicate, but, um, you know how everybody told you that your invitation was in the mail? Well. . .

Since Philly will likely part with Burrell if they get Manny I smell a 3-way. We get Burrell, Manny to Philly, and Boston gets Loney and say Ryan Madson.

Mr. Belvedere...Torii Hunter. Torii Hunter...Mr. Belvedere.

178 Oh man. You just keep getting meaner.

Eventually all of the good young players on the Red Sox will be on the Padres. Eventually all of the old guys on the Padres will be on the Red Sox. I expect Ryan Klesko to be patrolling left field soon enough for the Red Sox. Russell Branyan could take over for Mike Lowell at third.

UCLA was given a bid to the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco on December 28 to face Florida State.

Now I have to figure out why.

Ahh, ASU was sent to Hawai'i. I imagine that the HPD will be arresting a few people for DUI and public intoxication for a matchup between those two schools.

I may go to the Emerald Bowl this year!

UCLA vs. Florida State is sure to be an offensive explosion!

The press release is hilarious when it comes to UCLA. It talks about how good they were in the 50s.

162 Depends what we're trading him for. I see him topping out at 25-HR power while hitting around .300. These are solid numbers, but if we can convince some other team that last year was just a stepping stone to a superstar career then we should make the deal. Here's my current untouchables chart:

Martin - cornerstone of our rookie class
Billingsley - potential #1 starters don't come along too often
Kemp - potential to be a masher
Loney - solid contributor, currently lacks power to make him special
Ethier - same as Loney, but with less defensive prowess
Kuo - high potential, high risk
Broxton - great arm, but only a reliever
Elbert - lots of potential, very unproven, walks too many
Miller - tremendous upside, still trying to regain form
Dewitt - very unproven, but plays premium defensive positions
Meloan - like Broxton, only less proven
Abreu - limited upside, potential role-player

Am I missing anyone?

LaRoche

Meloan could be a starter, but may start out as a reliever.

Kershaw

Hmmm, I think Laroche is just about on par with Loney, maybe slightly above. His power potential is really intriguing, but he hasn't sniffed major league pitching yet and has that bum shoulder.

Kershaw isn't tradeable yet since he hasn't been in the organization for a year yet.

I think LaRoche is our best position prospect. He has power, good defense, and last season he worked a ton on his plate discipline. I am not worried about the shoulder, heck he played with the injury.

All this prospect talk has me excited to see Sickels' top-20 list which should be coming out in the next month. I'm assuming Loney, Elbert, and Laroche get A-'s, Kershaw B+, Dewitt B, Meloan and Abreu B-. I don't think Kemp or Kuo will qualify anymore, but I think they'd get A- and B+ respectively.

I think he will give Kershaw an A or A-. A couple months ago he said he thought Kershaw was possibly the best pitching prospect period.

193 He's got the potential to be the best of all of them, but I put him slightly below Kemp since Kemp's numbers were better at both AA and AAA and Kemp's a year younger. Just because he played through the injury doesn't mean it makes him less of a risk going forward unless his rehab went well enough to get it back to 100%.

195 He seems to be very conservative with guys who have only played at lower levels. He might be high enough on him to give him an A-, but my guess is B+ with the remark that a good year in 2007 will bump him up to an A.

197
Yeah, Kershaw just may be a guy he really likes so he will be generous.

Sickels is stingy with his A's. If Kemp counted, I think Kemp and Laroche would be A-s... loney, elbert and kershaw B+s.

199 He seems to be higher on Elbert than most analysts which is why I figured he'd give him an A-. Personally I'd go with B+. Loney could go either A- or B+, but I think with the way he performed when promoted after putting up such great stats at AAA that he might jump into A- territory.

50 and a couple others touched on whether Ned is still talking to Boras about any of his clients.

Read between the lines dept.===

"Drew's opt-out clause was negotiated by Colletti's predecessor Paul DePodesta, but it's merely part of the price of doing business. It's good to see Colletti isn't letting it affect his other dealings, though. One day after making his decision on Drew, Colletti was talking to Boras about Greg Maddux and Gagne." --Jon Heyman, SI.com, 11/13

Then....

"At least temporarily, General Manager Ned Colletti is soured on negotiating with super agent Scott Boras because one Boras client, outfielder J.D. Drew, opted out of the last three years of his Dodgers contract, leaving a gaping hole in the batting order. Boras also represents Zito, who is seeking a seven-year deal for more than $100 million. Colletti wants no part of those numbers and no part of Boras — until, of course, a Boras client is someone the Dodgers really want. Then, most likely, all will be forgiven." -- Steve Henson, LA Times, today

Tonto, someone here may speak with forked tongue...

179 - Take Gavin Floyd too and you just might have something there...

I think D-Ray fan Rocc mentioned this as a possibility on DT===

http://www.draysbay.com/story/2006/11/28/143218/57

Um, if HSC is now a D-Ray, does this mean Ned will trade for him?

I know. Don't go there. Sorry.

Blog also says that with Choi and Jae Seo (that name sounds familiar) the D-Rays now will be of more interest in Korea. Probably. And to fans of Korean ex-Dodgers.

One of the comments says Choi holds his own in comparison with Ortiz in minor league stats....

his heinous chewing gum smear

Heh heh. Not that I blame you for spitting it out: I wouldn't think Big League Chew and Big Macs go very well together...

I am not a gum chewer. Son of a pair of teachers--gum was verboten with extreme prejudice. Once I got around to rebelling against their authority, I found other matters more pressing. It's possible I've ever chewed gum, but I don't remember having.

Still waiting for my pony.

While I remain in seclusion during UCLA/Southern Cal week, I will say that I like the Randy Wolf deal. If the guy can stay healthy (big IF, I know), he can be a good lefty. Loney for Manny? Um, yes please. LaRoche for Manny? Um, okay, I'd do it.

Somebody get that man a pony.

You have never lived till you had Big League Chew and its flavor that lasts 3 minutes.

Big League Chew and Jerky Stuff told me that chewing tobacco was cool. Luckily, I wasn't interested in cool...

http://tinyurl.com/yl53bv

My friend went to a tobacco store that sold chew mixed with big league chew.

Mmmmm butterscotch.

Fred Roggin just reported that the deal on the table is currently Loney and Broxton for Manny.

Take that a with a grain or a pound of salt.

Who is Freg Roggin?

So I googled Fred Roggin and found his myspace and most of his top friends are porn stars and playmates.

The completion of the deal will not take place until at least the weekend, by which time the Dec. 1 deadline for teams to offer their own free agents salary arbitration will have passed. But a source with knowledge of Drew's contract said last night that the Dodgers are prohibited from offering Drew arbitration.

As a technicality, Drew and the Sox must wait until after the Dec. 1 deadline, but the protective language negotiated by Drew's agent, Scott Boras, with the Dodgers two years ago insures that Boston will not have to forfeit draft picks as compensation to Los Angeles for signing Drew.

http://tinyurl.com/y5rej6

if this is actually the case, this is completely ridiculous.

Dodgers will probably sign Mike Lieberthal to back up Martin if he isn't offered arbitration and passes his physical (according to the LA Times). Lieberthal would be one of the better offensive backup catchers in the league.

212 I could live with that

Here's that Lieberthal story in the Times:

http://tinyurl.com/yc9bjk

216 And he's from Westlake Village, so Vinny will like that.

Maybe that's part of Colletti's master plan. Find local kids (Nomar, Wolf, Lieberthal) and convince them to come (cuz they "want to be here") for incentive-laden contracts.

Given how big LA's talent base must be compared with other, smaller cities, it's not completely crazy.

Uh, except for Jeff Weaver.

219 A list from which we could glean the local boys:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/bio/CA_born_date.shtml

Interestingly, Jeff Weaver and Randy Wolf were born on the same date, 1976-08-22, in Northridge and Canoga Park respectively.

So much for our stock pile the draft picks plan before the off-season.

Locals to avoid:
Ryan Klesko
Jeff Weaver

Locals who would be great additions (not necessarily realistic)
Morgan Ensberg
Michael Young
Coco Crisp (for Juan Pierre in June)
Noah Lowry

Ensberg would be a nice addition and from what I've heard, he's on the trading block.

219.

how come, is vin scully a westlake guy?

Meanwhile, Bob's apparently been hanging out with Corey Brewer and the Gators.

It's weird that, considering the Dodgers have no current legal or financial obligation to Drew or vice versa, that they are prohibited from doing anything with regards to him that's within the rules of baseball.

If Colletti continues to sign good clubhouse guys it would seem he would want to eliminate the bad clubhouse guys he already has.

I am not sure who they are but I suspect that Penny might qualify, if not in the clubhouse, in the dugout.

The Dodgers have as starters Penny, Lowe, Billingsley, Kuo, Tomko, Hendrickson, Wolf, with Elbert perhaps ready by June and Maloan beginning 2008. Miller might be able to start as well.

Why not keep the A+ prospects and try to deal Penny, Betemit for Ramirez if that is what Colletti feels he has to do?

I read somewhere that a team might try to play Ramirez at first base. I have no clue if that is posible but if it were might not this be a juicy trade?

Ramirez to Dodgers for Furcal and then Ramirez to the Yankees for AROD. Let AROD play ss for the Dodgers. Then play Garciaparra at third and Loney at first.

212. Who put that on the table? Dodgers offering Loney and Brox or Sox demanding Loney and Brox?

212 Broxton and Loney for Ramirez? That's a good deal. Roggin's source must be Colletti. The Bosox brass wouldn't go for it, however; their fans wouldn't let them.

215 The Drew clause, if it's true, should have spurred Colletti either to recognize that Drew would inevitably be gone and plan accordingly, or to renegotiate his contract, despite Drew's "I love LA" statements.

Also, is it too late to fire Paul DePodesta?

Contract language that prevents a team from offering a player arbitration did not originate with DePodesta. In opt-out or player-option contracts, such terms are not unusual at all.

It prevents the team from offering arbitration and thereby scaring away potential suitors that don't like the idea of surrendering draft picks. It guarantees the player will have total free agency, no strings attached.

Also, is it too late to fire Paul DePodesta?

For what?
You make it sound like he signed Juan Pierre to a 5/44 deal...

Oh wait, we have a GM that actually did that.

228 I just can't understand why anybody would rather have Ramirez instead of Broxton and Loney.

Why obtain an aging $20M a year guy that is only a two tool player that plays 120 games especially when the other three tools are minus tools and give up ten years of "potentially" great pitching and hitting from Broxton and Loney?

By 2009 both Garciaparra and Ramirez will be gone and the Dodgers would again be scrambling for free agents hoping to make the playoffs. When does that stop? When do we get to root for a player for more than two years?

I mentioned trading Furcal for Ramirez and then flipping Ramirez for AROD but flipping Ramirez to Texas for Young would be even better. Obviously would have to get $$ from Boston that would be given to Texas along with Penny, Tomko, and Betemit.

That keeps the Dodgers young.(See pun only if so inclined; it was not intended)

If anybody thinks Texas would not do this trade you have more respect for their GM than you do for Colletti if you think he would give up young Dodger talent for aging vets.

When I ponder Ramirez in a Dodger uniform, I think "Sheffield." That's probably not fair to either player, but it's what comes to mind. I'd really rather see the Dodgers go "cheap" (in terms of salary and prospects traded) with Burrell than end up with Ramirez.

And I have an irrational desire to see James Loney make it as a Dodger. I'm a sucker for a good story.

From the Daily News:

Lorenzo Bundy, a longtime minor-league manager and big- league coach, is expected to be named manager of the Dodgers' Triple-A Las Vegas affiliate.

I like Ethier, I hope they don't trade him, but for the right player (And he better be a good one), I could live with it. Broxton and Billingsly, with the scarcity of pitching, no way, at least not until they show us their limitations. Same thing with Loney; He's shown enough that I say "no way" until I see his limit. I'll have to wait a year to see what LaRoche has. Players that I say trade if you want:
Penny
Tomko
Hendrickson
Hall
Anderson
Hamulack
Biemel
And even Saito! He was outstanding last season and I say bring him back for sure, but if some GM wants to overpay for him, I'd listen. It is very unlikely he will be able to duplicate 2006, his entire career just doesn't show it.

\223\ I think they got him mixed up with Al.

233 Oops! wrong reference. I guess that makes it a half-witted remark, but you get the idea...

234 The problem with waiting to see someone's limit is that if their limit is lower than it is perceived to be, you end up losing out on a player at his peak value. See Guzman, Juan for reference.

What is Joel Guzman's limit? Is it the same as the guy who OPSed .630 in A ball?

It's weird that, considering the Dodgers have no current legal or financial obligation to Drew or vice versa, that they are prohibited from doing anything with regards to him that's within the rules of baseball.

The Boss of the Gloss strikes again...

By trading a player that has not shown his limit you get a player/contract some other team wants to dump.

Wells for Loney would be an example. Or a month of Lugo for Guzman.

It is not like other GMs are going to trade a healthy productive young proven player for a great prospect.

If we think Loney's potential is .320 .360 25 95 and he hits .280 .320 15 75 the latter probably gets the same player in a trade that the former potential would have obtained.

237 I believe it is Joel Guzman, not Juan, but it is a gamble either way. I prefer to hang on to them and see just what we have. We have the advantage of their cheap years if they turn out well. If they go bad, there's always some stupid GM out there who will take them in a trade. There's a lot of them like Ned, got to make a trade whether it's advantageous or makes any sense or not.

241 I must have been channeling my early-90's baseball card collecting days when Juan Guzman was a hot item.

I agree that in a lost of cases it's better to hold on and see what you've got, but if you can get someone that you know will produce (like Manny) in return, then you shouldn't worry about how good a prospect might be unless he is a can't-miss prospect IMO.

If Ned is seriously after Manny but is only willing to give up one premium prospect I think he should point Theo and his charm in the direction of Dodger nemesis Jim Bowden. It's reported the Sox are looking for a young closer so they can move Papelbon into the rotation and the Nationals have a good one. However what good is a young closer if he has no leads to protect? The Nationals need starting pitching! Jim Bowden has always been a GM who undervalues 1 inning pitchers. Going back to his days in Cincy (ie- Jeff Shaw for an unproven Paul Konerko). Jimbo always looks at his own bullpen for his next closer or cheaply sifts thru the free agent market. I think it's obvious if Ned is only willing to give up 1 premium prospect so imo there needs to be a 3rd team. I couldn't see why this would work itself out........

To LA: Manny Ramirez

To Bos: Chad Cordero, James Loney

To WAS: Brad Penny, Craig Hansen

This is of course contingent upon Ned signing Jason Schmidt to replace Penny.

As for Nationals vacated closers role Jim could go with a committe of Craig Hansen, Luis Ayala, and Ryan Wagner until one of them emerges. IMHO Bowden would value a good starting pitcher over a good closer, especially if he has good closer candidates he could turn to.

Tx

Your screenname indicates Texas, but your proposed deal screams, "Nats fan."