This is good for at least Hollywood mediumwig status

Wow, right next to Annie Duke! That's big time, baby!

Annie Duke looks hot in that photo.

So do you Jon.

Wow, Jon must make millions from DT to be with these people.

frankly, i wish you and dodger thoughts were a little more influential, jon. especially on the dodger front office.

Way to go Jon, that is awesome!!

...do we know who the stealth stalker of our Philosopher King from LA Mag is though?

I guess Jon didn't get the complimentary "park anywhere in Los Angeles with impunity" card that all the other honorees get.

I saw Pete Carroll parking in front of a fire hydrant that was in a hospital zone and he was double parking in Sonny Vaccaro!

6
Two words: citizen's arrest

You can't make a citizen's arrest for a parking violation I believe.

But the scofflaw doesn't have to know that

i'm imagining bob driving around with a homemade "boot" in the back of his prius.

Jon, that is just very cool. I hope you enjoy the memento.

3 - Alas, it cost me more to buy this month's Los Angeles magazine than I earned from the site in November.

Baseball Primer linked to my SI column this week and the main comment was "condescending fluff."

It's easy to stay humble. Guess I had better learn poker.

"Scofflaw" was the winning entry in a national contest during Prohibition to coin a word to characterize a person who drinks illegally, chosen from more than 25,000 entries; the $200 winning prize was split between two contestants who sent in the word separately, Henry Irving Dale and Miss Kate L. Butler.

why didn't we offer more free agents arbitration?? ugh. those are valuable draft picks there. even if they accept we could trade them later. arb. is cheaper than free agency.

and yes, i think i forgot to include my congratulations as well. the recognition is well-deserved, jon! you've had a remarkable impact on many of our dodger fan experiences.

13
Tell me something I don't know...

"Condescending fluff" is a pretty high compliment from Baseball Primer commenters.

Remember that all BTF commenters are ALWAYS right and ALWAYS smarter than anybody else.

And they like the Mets.

Reminds me of the story of how when Cary Grant was cast to play Cole Porter in "Night and Day", one of Porter's friends suggested that Fred Astaire would have been better casting, to which Porter replied, "Yes, but would you turn it down?"

Congratulations Jon. Quite an honor, and even more so the fact that I read it first even with the picture of the busty babe above your blurb.

Yeah, I know, that and 3 bucks will get you a latte at Starbuck's, but still...

Speaking of LA, I'll be there briefly this weekend. Staying at the Wilshire Grand. Mostly working. But if anyone's in that area and wants to stop by, drop me a line (underdog8@gmail.com) Then it's on to the South to visit family. Online off and on. Sigh.

This is great, Jon. I couldn't be happier for you.

All hail the Philosopher King!

Hey, I think it's pretty neat. What was it Hearst said? "As long as they spell my name right?"

I can see it now...

This years Dodgers squad comes in fresh off a wildcard birth and...

Want to read more? Become a Dodger Thoughts Insider today! Featuring Jon Weisman, LA's most powerful blogging thingy guy!

Only 5.99 per month!

Nice job Jon, would you trade it for a win in the Big Game?

Congratulations. We can all say we knew him when.

Who does that sex battery apply to?

24 Wow, did not pick that one up. Nice catch.

I'm guessing Ruth Bader Ginsburg is on the list.

BTW: Does Jon consider himself a "frustrated TV writer"...?

26 I doubt it, but I'd take "Frustrated TV writer and beloved baseball writer" any day of the week. But not twice on Sunday.

I never got that. I don't want anything but sleep on Sunday.

My cable system doesn't carry Frustration TV. I hear it's really hard to get anyone to carry it.

28 Frustration TV is carrying NFL Wednesday Night Football next year.

Contact your local service provider.

I am a full time Frustration TV football fan.

29
The website for Frustration TV is down. I tried calling my cable company, but they didn't answer.

I hope the sex battery is not for Sonny Vaccaro.

Frustration TV's primetime lineup:

8:00--Reality TV: "Watching you parents work a computer"
9:00--Drama: "Jessica Simpson tackles the Rubic's Cube"
10:00--Arts and Entertainment--"Quarterly Taxes: The Musical"

11:00-- A full hour of John Mellencamp's "This Is Our Country"

I can stand beside
Things I think are right
And I can stand beside
The idea of stand and fight
And I do believe
There's a dream for everyone
This is our country
From the east coast
To the west coast
Down the Dixie Highway
Back home
This is our country

That was for Andrew.

Colletti is inept. I dont understand the logic behind not offering Maddux arbitration. We only want him for one year anyways.

Every passing day, Colletti frustrates me more and more.

Do the dodger beat writers think not getting any compensation for losing drew isnt a big deal? I havent heard one single word from any of them.

what a shame.

re: drew compensation. i think i've said this before, but everyone seems to be operating under the assumption that the opt-out and now the compensation clauses were just gifts from depodesta to boras and drew, but i think the reality is that depo was operating under a more limited payroll at the time and it seems clear that these concessions were made in lieu of giving drew a bigger contract. they weren't just throw-ins by depo for the heck of it, because he's such a nice guy. those clauses have monetary value, and take the place of money.

37 -- Nate, the logic behind the decision is 1) we don't want Maddux accepting arbitration now that we signed Wolf, and 2) we fear Maddux might accept arbitration if offered. Lugo DOES get arbitration because though we don't want him either, we don't think there is any chance he accepts.

if maddux accepts arbitration, he could always be traded. And the value of Maddux for one year should be considerbly more tempting to teams then 4 years of gil meche.

not offering maddux arbitration goes against everything colletti has said about "creating a surplus of pitching."

I think we've established that Ned is not going to be a great GM*. The question is, will he be a truly bad GM? Time will tell, but I don't think it's looking good. He seems like an old school counting stats buffoon to me.

*Well, I've established it.

38 Baseball draft picks rank slightly higher than hockey draft picks in the minds of the general sports fan and that it appears that the local media never liked J.D. Drew so it just isn't interesting to them to report.

Personally, I think the draft pick compensation is a little out-dated, I think it still exists for football but it never gets implemented.

Ned would have voted for Justin Morneau.

41 If no one is going to sign Maddux for the loss of the draft pick, why would they then trade players to get him.

42 As opposed to the new school of counting stats.

Actually, Jon could set up an exclusive "subscriber board" where subscribers get to make fun of those on the free boards.

45 I'm referring to "counting stats" as in raw numbers. RBI's, hits, home runs...not taking into account percentages. Ned likes to look at those things, without taking into account plate appearances. Perhaps you're not familiar with the term.

45 how do we know no one will want to sign maddux if he was offered arb?

45 From Prospectus:

Many of the stats you encounter in mainstream baseball circles are what we call "counting stats." That is, they count things: 23 homers, 107 RBI, six triples, etc. This may sound painfully obvious, but the more a hitter plays in a given season, the higher his counting stats are likely to be. Some counting stats, like RBI and runs scored, are highly team and batting-order dependent. A cleanup hitter logging 600 plate appearances in a potent lineup must work very hard not to rack up at least 100 RBI. Whereas a leadoff hitter on an otherwise weak offensive team won't crack the 100-RBI mark no matter how effective he is. If a superior player is surrounded by weak hitters, it's entirely possible that he'll cash in on a much greater percentage of his RBI opportunities and still have a lower RBI total than a lesser player in a stronger lineup.

The thing to understand about counting stats is that, absent supporting information, they're really only useful at the margins. That's to say, it's hard to rack up 140 RBI and somehow stink. Conversely, it's difficult to log a season's worth of plate appearances, total 40 RBI and somehow be any good.

Many of the stats you encounter in mainstream baseball circles are what we call "counting stats." That is, they count things: 23 homers, 107 RBI, six triples, etc. This may sound painfully obvious, but the more a hitter plays in a given season, the higher his counting stats are likely to be. Some counting stats, like RBI and runs scored, are highly team and batting-order dependent. A cleanup hitter logging 600 plate appearances in a potent lineup must work very hard not to rack up at least 100 RBI. Whereas a leadoff hitter on an otherwise weak offensive team won't crack the 100-RBI mark no matter how effective he is. If a superior player is surrounded by weak hitters, it's entirely possible that he'll cash in on a much greater percentage of his RBI opportunities and still have a lower RBI total than a lesser player in a stronger lineup.

The thing to understand about counting stats is that, absent supporting information, they're really only useful at the margins. That's to say, it's hard to rack up 140 RBI and somehow stink. Conversely, it's difficult to log a season's worth of plate appearances, total 40 RBI and somehow be any good.

Many of the stats you encounter in mainstream baseball circles are what we call "counting stats." That is, they count things: 23 homers, 107 RBI, six triples, etc. This may sound painfully obvious, but the more a hitter plays in a given season, the higher his counting stats are likely to be. Some counting stats, like RBI and runs scored, are highly team and batting-order dependent. A cleanup hitter logging 600 plate appearances in a potent lineup must work very hard not to rack up at least 100 RBI. Whereas a leadoff hitter on an otherwise weak offensive team won't crack the 100-RBI mark no matter how effective he is. If a superior player is surrounded by weak hitters, it's entirely possible that he'll cash in on a much greater percentage of his RBI opportunities and still have a lower RBI total than a lesser player in a stronger lineup.

The thing to understand about counting stats is that, absent supporting information, they're really only useful at the margins. That's to say, it's hard to rack up 140 RBI and somehow stink. Conversely, it's difficult to log a season's worth of plate appearances, total 40 RBI and somehow be any good.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2562

Not offering Maddux arbitration would be a colossal mistake.

Which means he won't be offered. We're going to win in spite of our GM. What a horrible situation.

50

huh? we didnt offer maddux arbitration. no "woulds" or "ifs"

Greg has been in seclusion all week. He needs to ease back in the swing of things.

[52] i think he's going to be heading right back to seclusion tomorrow.

so are you in the wrong if one of your best buddies hooked up with a fat chick and afterwards, he was in denial about it and you had to set him straight?

41 -- I have never heard of a free agent accepting arbiration and then being traded. I am not sure it can even be done. I remember when Maddux was still a Brave and the Braves expected to lose him to free agency for sure. They offered arbitration just to get compensation, then Maddux stunned them by accepting arbitration, sending the Braves' front office into panic because they had made personnel decisions based on the idea they wouldn't have to pay Maddux, so they had to dump Kevin Millwood and his salary to stay within payroll limitations. Once Wolf got the salary the Dodgers wanted Maddux to take, I am sure the Dodgers resolved that they couldn't afford to take the chance of getting stuck paying Maddux. As for the pitching depth thing, we have Lowe, Penny, Wolf, Billingsley, Kuo, Hendrickson, Tomko, Dessens, and Stults as guys who can start MLB games, and we're pursuing Schmidt. Maddux simply had no place on this team.

denial that he did it, or denial that she was fat?

[disclaimer: i don't harbor any intrinsic dislike or disdain toward the overweight]

51 Not sure I follow you, Nate. I'm saying that not offering Maddux arbitration would be a mistake.

I didn't use the word didn't, so I don't know what you're getting at. I'm saying that refusing to offer Maddux arby would be a mistake, which is why Ned will mess it up. I'm saying that Ned won't offer arbitration because doing so would be smart, and Ned is stupid.

54
My perspective is...

Who cares what your friends think about a woman's appearance. I would only listen to them when it came to personality.

51 The more I read your post, the more I have no idea what you were criticizing me about.

Please elaborate.

56

denial that she was fat. I have nothing against fat girls but i couldnt let him live his lie and telling everyone she was gorgeous.

59

you made it sound like you havent found out yet that the only colletti offered arbitration to was lugo.

61
only person

[55] i would assume he could be traded after a certain deadline, just like any of the free agents that are signed this year (no-trade clauses aside), right?

[60] maybe his standards of fatness differ from yours? it's all relative to some degree.

61 Actually, I didn't know that. That explains a lot. I've been in seclusion, in anticipation of the UCLA/Southern Cal game, which means I've missed some stuff. Sorry.

Colletti didn't offer Maddux arby, and the deadline has expired. Now I now.

Ned is a [expletive deleted] idiot. Euphamisms.

We truly have a retarded GM.

55

I understand what you're saying but the scenario with the braves was different because his salary was so high.

1 year/$14.75M (2003), avoided arbitration 2/03 ($16M-$13.5M)

At that time, it would have been hard to trade maddux when he could have potentially landed a salary that high. It would be different now since his salary and 1yr commitment would make him a relative bargain in todays market.

60
Oh, well by all means harass him if he cannot speak the truth.

Come to think of it, I think I remember reading somewhere that when a free agent accepts arbitration, MLB consideres the player "signed," and that brings the policy against "sign-and-trades" into effect. So if we offered and Maddux accepted arbitration, we'd be stuck with him.

65

now do you understand why i was so confused? anyways, i feel bad being the one that had to break it to you.

and to canuck, arent you kind of well uh..pissed off that we could potentially not have a 1st round pick in next years deep draft? I mean, if the cubs sign lugo, we would get their 3rd round pick. if the mets sign lugo and then sign Zito, we would get their 2nd round pick. thats just completely frustrating to me.

Canuck,

I dropped a few more X-Files episodes over at Screen Jam. In the V-Mars thread.

69 Yeah. You're the one that broke it to me.

Our GM is officially stupid. I was a fence sitter on Ned for awhile, but now I realize that he is a certified idiot.

Sorry for the confusion, Nate.

Ned is a moron.

71
I thought that for awhile, but I guess I am supposed to give people a "chance". Whatever that means.

so apparently, if we offered maddux arbitration, and he accepted, we'd have negotiated a 1-year contract with him. and that would mean that we wouldn't be able to trade him until june 1st, unless he agreed to be traded before then. however, i think if we had explained to him that "we're offering arb. because we can't really have you for more than a year, and if you take it, i can't guarantee you a rotation spot, but we can maybe trade you, or else you could decline and become a free agent", maddux would be either reasonable about it and decline, or the worst case scenario is we have him for a couple months and trade him in june.

does that sound right?

You know, it all goes back to the McCourts. They are big fans of statistical analysis, and hire DePo, then get bullied by the LA Times idiots, and fire DePo, and hire an old school moron. When this mongoloid destroys the team, they fire him, and hire Steve Phillips.

I can see it coming. We are screwed.

He offered the job to Theo first at least.

I think you are going through UCLA footballitis.

75 Theo and Billy are too smart to work for the McCourts.

[74] mongoloid is not the preferred nomenclature. "mentally disabled", please.

77 We're not talking about the folks who built the Special Olympics, Dude.

i am the walrus.

Am I wrong!? Am I wrong!?

69 -- Oh, believe me, I am NOT happy about the way our draft pick situation is shaping up, but I don't think we could avoid it. With Wolf signed, the risk of getting stuck with Maddux is not acceptable. The thing with Drew boils my blood, but blame Boras and DePo for that clause in Drew's contract preventing arbitration from being offered. If I were Colletti, right now I would forget about signing Schmidt or any Type A free agent and make sure we keep #22 overall next year. Go with a rotation of Lowe, Penny, Wolf, Billingsley, and Kuo.

Billy cannot be an owner of any other team, so he will not be going anywhere.

Hopefully Steve Phillips will be in jail by the time we get a new GM. Same for Jim Bowden.

The plane has crashed into the mountain!!!!

you're not wrong greg, you're just an...

:P

DePo was a good GM, and a good man. He was one of us. He was a man who loved the outdoors... and stats, and as a stathead he explored the numbers of Southern California, from OBP to OPS and... up to... VORP. He died, like so many young men of his generation, he died before his time. In your wisdom, Lord, you took him, as you took so many bright flowering young men at Khe Sanh, at Langdok, at Hill 364. These young men gave their lives. And so would DePo. DePo, who loved statistical analysis. And so, Paul DePodesta, in accordance with what we think your dying wishes might well have been, we commit your final mortal remains to the bosom of the Baseball Prospectus, which you loved so well. Good night, sweet stathead.

[85] comment. of. the. year.

Just because we are bereaved doesn't make us saps!

Greg totally got himself in the next Best of Dodger Thoughts.

My only mission in life is to make you guys laugh.

Mission accomplished.

And yet a team that Ned put on the field led the league in OBP, set franchise records in walks and scored the second most runs ever in Los Angeles.

And he did with only one player (Furcal) having what could be considered a career year.

He could have been lucky that Russ and Ethier played so well, he got the max out of injured guys like Kent and Nomar, Drew played the most games in his career, he replaced a bad offensive 3B with one who could hit the ball out occasionally and finally Marlon Anderson had the best 3 weeks of his career.

Now, I have read BP for 10 or so years and it certainly has impacted how I look at the game but while it does a great job in analyzing statistical data beyond just counting numbers, its does a pretty bad job in predicting what happens on the field. (What I mean is that BP is like every other publication when it tries to figure out how teams are going to finish when the year starts) And frankly that's because baseball is pretty hard game to accurately forecast what will happen once the games start.

And finally, with the latest musical chair shuffling at Chavez Ravine, Ned is probably more secure now with his staff in place, good relations with his manager and strong owner support.

85 I still believe that bitterness the undercuts any analysis by BP about the Dodgers is due to some of their writers belief that DePo got a raw deal in L.A.

Personally, if he did a few more radio shows but that is water under the bridge.

I better get some sleep, I need wake up soon to go park my car at Brookside.

Didn't BP predict we would win the division?

Hey, Greg, about The X-Files thing on Screen Jam, was there something more you wanted to talk about? I really didn't have a reply to your last comments, although I could have said you are wrong about "Beyond The Sea," but I really didn't want to get into a fight on a subject on which we had found some common ground -- admiration for The X-Files, and most of the same episodes -- after heated battles on the baseball front.[Smiley Face]

Jon, I have to say congratulations, and I'm glad that I can contribute to your power over LA from 3000 miles away.

94 I have much to say about "Beyond the Sea" and a few other episodes. I'm really glad you didn't forget about our conversation.

I shall explain my hatred for Beyond the Sea over at Screen Jam.

Goodnight to all and Greg take your frustration from tomorrow and then unleash it on your students.

Cool stuff Jon. Don't forget us littles!

33 and 34 got a big LOL from me.

I guess I don't really see why the risk of getting stuck with Maddux is so unacceptable. I assume the worry is that we would be too consrained on salary to do other things if that happened, but I don't see this team as unhealthily overstocked with starting pitching.

Guys, why think that Lugo will not accept arbitration? According to Rotoworld, Lugo wants 4/36. That's Juan Pierre money. Why won't he get the same from the arbitrator?

Lastly, for Ken Gurnick and the rest of the purportedly "curious," from the official TB DRays site:

"Here's a look at how the other Devil Rays prospects fared in various fall and winter leagues:
*
3B Joel Guzman -- Guzman, whom the Rays acquired from the Dodgers in the Julio Lugo trade last season, is hitting .248 with a .270 on-base percentage and one homer in 121 at-bats for the Estrellas."

So, no need for curiosity, Ken, as some just saw the handwriting on the wall before some others, while some others haven't still, or so it appears. But with a real shot at starting in the bigs to an OBP of .270 in the winter league, oh, how the mighty have fallen. But since I want no man's failure, here's to Joel proving me and the rest of his critics wrong [and if does, no one will be more glad to admit their error than me].

arb list: http://tinyurl.com/ymb499

No arb for Ramon Ortiz. Jim, you go sit in the corner with Ned!

Lieberthal not offered arbitration.

If the team wants to re-sign Maddux, wouldn't offering him arbitration have made sense since it would have increased the cost of signing Maddux for other teams, making him a bit less attractive. It's the flip side of the Drew clause forbidding offering of arb to increase his value on the FA market.

102-

Colletti doesn't want to get himself into anything smart.

102 An hour later I did realize that offering arb sets what might be an artificially high floor on the negotiations to re-sign (that's an issue with Gagne, certainly, though I might think the risk makes sense even with him).

Some day our young Nate will fall in love. Head over heals, madly in love with some young woman of good breeding and high morals. And she'll fall for him, too, and they'll be very, very happy with each other, and with the world, generally. And then, on a larf, she'll (the) Google his name.

And there will be a time of much grief and sorrow.

Oh come one. Heals?! Heals‽ I'm going back to bed.

On, I meant.

Bed.

This tread exemplifies the brilliance of Dodger Thoughts. On the day Jon is recognized as one of the most powerful people in the LA sports world, we, his faithful followers, intertwine a deep analysis of the following issues:

1. Should Maddux have been offered arb;

2. Does Ned appropriately value stats; and

3. How fat does a one night stand have to be before you can bust your buddy's chops.

Each a meaningful and important sociological issue. (Of course if you are the guy that hooked up with the fat girl #3 is a lot more relevant to you).

I had to add my congrats, Jon. Consider me among those you've influenced, and to a far greater degree than Annie Duke ever did.

As usual I don't understand the complaining from most of you about Maddux. You all want Kuo in the rotation but if we offered Maddux arbitration and he accepted then Kuo would be the pitcher relegated to the bullpen. Especially considering that Ned is focused in on Schmidt. If Ned needs the money to sign Schmidt, they he can't be handing Maddux a 10Mill arbitration deal. It all seems real easy for me to understand. A draft pick is not worth the price of possibly losing out on Schmidt and the idea that Maddux could be easily traded is a grey area. He stunk as a pitcher for 3 months last year only reviving when he came to LA. Very possible he'll completely blow in 2007, why take a 10Mill chance on that.

Congrats, Jon; that was a nice write-up, and sums up why I like DT so much. (I'm mostly lurking these days -- work and all keeping me busy -- but I read every day.)

Nate your obviously young but I seriously hope that when you fall in love it will be with a "fat" chick. How many posters on this site do think are married to awesome girls, I'd bet a good % of them are currently hooked up with woman who are on the overweight side considering how many parents this site seems to have.

Congrats Jon, you happen to track traffic for your site? Curious how much traffic you really get.

And the same page as my teenage hero....Rodney Mullen, nice!

Andrew, you missed the worst offense -- larf. What, pray tell, is a larf? :-)

Large Animal Research Facility.

Larf is a real word, isn't it? I can't remember where I picked it up, but it's like laugh, only spelled funny. To do something on, or for, a larf, indicates whimsy. Something undertaken without any contemplation of its going awry.

It's been used 321,000 times, according to Google, so I didn't make it up. Maybe it's British slang. In which case I should be more careful throwing it around. I was mortified when I learnt what "berk" means. Stupid rhyming slang. . .

I think you mean "on a lark".

If C. Montgomery Burns says it, it's a word.

Larf is a word. As are velocitator and deceleratrix. They make the car go and stop.

116- You're right. "On a larf," returns nearly nothing; "for a larf," though, seems to be acceptable slang. At least, that's my story.

Burns: Pish posh. It will be as easy as taking candy from a baby. (Spots a baby with candy) Say, that sounds like a larf!

108 - LOL.

New post up top.

"Only When I Larf" was a Len Deighton title.

This has been a special edition of useless info provided for your edification.

I'm a little late to the party, but I just wanted to say congratulations Jon. I can't think of a person I would rather see get recognition. And being someone who's lurked around the site since Vin Scully first gave you a shout out 3 or so years ago, I can say that I have real pride on your behalf.

Congrats,

NJR

A belated congrats! This is still the best blog ever. I haven't had time to post lately because of school, but I still read as much as I can.