Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Perhaps the most striking stat from the 2006 season of Luis Gonzalez was that he had a career-high 52 doubles at age 39. That's where a lot of his former home-run power went - with the rest disappearing into the ether, as Gonzalez registered his lowest slugging percentage since 1997.
Gonzalez, whom the Dodgers signed overnight to a one-year, $7.35 million contract to start in left field, has had an unusual career. He never EQAd more than .300 in his 20s, then did so five times in his 30s. But now that he's pushing 40, you could say he's having traveling back to his youth. Andrew Grant of True Blue L.A. has more:
Gonzalez put up a serviceable .271/.352/.444 line last year, with several warning signs around it. The first is that his patience and power have been steadily declining every year since 2001. Right now, the only real value that Gonzalez has left is his ability to walk. If his patience takes another 10 point slide, that's pretty much out the door.
The other scary thing is that he did this in the BOB, a very hitter-friendly park. If you combine the decline that Gonzalez has been experiencing over the last half decade with moving from the BOB to Dodger Stadium, its not all that pessimistic to think that Gonzalez will hit something like .260/.330/.415 for the Dodgers. That must be close to replacement level for a corner outfielder.
Several people have interpreted the acquisition of Gonzalez as a sign that Dodger general manager Ned Colletti won't trade a prospect like Matt Kemp, James Loney or Andre Ethier. This might be true, but I wouldn't be sure of it. The Dodger lineup still lacks a hitter you can count on for 25 homers or a .500 slugging percentage, a problem that Colletti might be tempted to solve by sending off a package including prospects with a starting pitcher (a notion, depending on the trade principals, that could be good or bad - we can't know in the abstract).
But sure, the Dodgers could enter the season with Ethier in right field, Loney super-subbing for Gonzalez, Ethier and Nomar Garciaparra, Kemp coming up in June after he (hopefully) dominates AAA and/or when a veteran goes on the disabled list. (And by the way, though it's a point of pride for Colletti and Juan Pierre that Pierre plays 162 games, just as we wondered in the 1990s whether it could help Cal Ripken, Jr., I wonder whether Pierre's numbers might improve if he rested once in a blue moon.)
While the Dodger lineup doesn't look overpowering in the middle, it may be among the best in the National League top to bottom. While Pierre will have one of the lowest on-base percentages of a leadoff or No. 2 hitter, the Dodgers' No. 8 hitter (Ethier? Wilson Betemit?) could be the best around.
And if one thing seems clear about the Colletti-Grady Little regime, it's that they don't like handing starting jobs to rookies but they do like seeing the kids take them. If Kemp or Loney are hitting, eventually they will play. The Dodgers' more relevant bias against youth is that Little is more likely to pull a slumping kid out of the lineup than a slumping veteran.
I'm not excited about Gonzalez's signing, and I'm not convinced that the $15 million or so the Dodgers are spending on two sub-.800-OPS outfielders in 2007 is worthwhile. At the same time, I am very open to the idea that with superstar talent at a clear premium, there may be something to the idea of trying to dominate with depth, with supreme adequacy. Gonzalez might not be an ideal signing or even a sensible one, but there might be something to it. At any rate, the risk is on the low side.
Yes, I'm waffling. When I don't know, I don't know.
"Oh, all I can get."
(fill in the blank for how this relates to the current situation)
You have to give the D'Backs credit. The Mets have Green, we now have Gonzo and they have neither. We can only hope that Gonzo abuses the D'Backs the way Green abuses us.
Pierre, Gonzo, Wolf, Nomar
and
Jim Edmonds, Aramis Ramirez, Jason Schmidt, JD Drew
and
Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loney, Hong Chi Kuo
Best maximize the talent on the Dodgers, all the well knowing you have a budget of 132 mils (the amount Ned has thus far spent on Wolf, Nomar, Pierre, Schmidt, Gonzales).
I'm not on the fence on this one.
I think Ned's done a really poor job of allocating funds.
He's spent alot.
But the sum doesnt really add up.
I have read the same thing. The Mets are looking for a veteran SP, but are not high on Penny. I like the surplus that we are gathering, but it makes me wonder if Penny will the the one dealt. I think that it is more likely that a lower profile deal will emerge involving Hendrickson/Tomko/Stults.
Ned, don't mortgage the farm for Wells unless you can sign him to an extension.
Well said, Jon. And, to Colletti's credit, he's had a hand in building a pretty strong rotation, which will allow him to trade from a position of strength. (He doesn't have to trade a starter; he could put Billingsley and Kuo in Las Vegas to start the season.)
"No... Gonzo straight!"
But those crazy routes are how Gonzo gets his exercise.
When does too much depth in the farm system become a problem? I think the answer is when the spots aren't available. Clogging the Majors with mediocrity (see Gonzo, Pierre, Anderson, Tomko and Hendrickson) seems to be a poor choice of fund allocation. At least Gonzo is a short-term fix.
You have to admire Colletti's approach to pay more now, and keep these guys for less time. I just wonder what happened with Pierre then...
My feeling is that Ned is mostly finished save for dealing for some spare parts using guys like Hall and Tomko. Personally, I like what we have this year, though we won't be putting up too many 6 run innings on anyone. Only one bad deal (Pierre) and a lot of short term deals with guys that want to be here and NO KIDS GONE. I like our chances to get to the NLCS with this team and then take the next step in 2008 with Loney, Kemp, and Elbert all on the big club.
Also, I was OK with Valentin. Boom injured and out at the beginning. And I was OK, even happy, with Mueller. Boom injured and out at the beginning. And now Gonzalez. Seems like wasted money to me. Maybe I'll be wrong again. Let's Hope.
I dont think trading for someone like Pat Burrell would have been bad though.
Unfortunately, we may have created new opportunities for plays at the plate, as runners on first will now likely try to score on singles into left and center fields.
I think that you have brought up a good point that I have not really considered. We have a 25-man roster and by my count, here are the young'uns (sorry, I'm from Louisiana) that could realistically be on the big club:
Kemp
Loney
Kuo
Miller
Elbert (mid-season)
LaRoche
Stults (maybe a stretch)
That is almost 30% of our roster. You're right. Something is going to have to give.
Here's his splits vs. LHP:
2006 - 193 PA, 259/332/408/740
2005 - 192 PA, 269/359/389/748
2004 - 150 PA, 244/353/535/888
2003 - 245 PA, 223/302/400/702
2002 - 228 PA, 272/377/450/827
Aside from the small(er) sample size spike in '04, this looks like a player you want to platoon.
So, who plays left when there's a southpaw on the hill? Ethier hit them well (351/378/468/846), but who knows if that was a one-season fluke.
True. I was mostly thinking about guys that are likely to start the year in AAA. I hope that Loney is not relegated to having to spin his wheels in Vegas when he hit .380 there last year.
WWSH
What makes you think so? Colletti is like a woman with a new checkbook. Spend, spend, spend. At some point (already?) he is going to end up with too many players he can't trade for legal reasons or undesireability, and the kids are the only ones he can jettison. McCourt should have left the stupid dork in Frisco where they kept him out of the cash drawer.
"Gonzo just pawn in game of life"
What's a checkbook?
1) The Post-Dispatch claims that because the Dodgers haven't actually signed Schmidt yet the Cards still think they have a shot at him.
http://tinyurl.com/ybs844
2) The rumor that interests me most is that we would now trade Penny and Ethier for Vernon Wells. Regardless of whether that's true, I'd be open to trading Ethier in the right deal. I like him but I think he might be overvalued right now. I'd rather lose him and keep Kemp and Loney.
2B Abreu
SS Hu
1B Loney
CF Kemp
3B LaRoche
LF Young
RF (minor league veteran)
C Bellorin
Miller could be in the rotation and Meloan in the pen.
I would kinda rather watch this team than the actual Dodgers. It just seems more exciting.
To fill that RF spot, the Dodgers could look to get back Micheal Restovich from the Cubs for Hendrickson: .293/.374/.560 in AAA Iowa.
Look at what the Phils are getting out of Ryan Howard. Keep him on the shelf til he's 25 then let him dominiate from day 1. That's resource maximization.
I REALLY like that deal that you just proposed if we do in fact have Schmidt. I like Ethier, but if we could get Wells, even for a single season, that would put us over the top:
Furcal
Pierre
Nomar
Wells
Kent
Gonzo/Loney
Martin
Betemit
Schmidt
Lowe
Bills
Wolf
Kuo
That is your NL West Champion right there...
That doesn't explain why he signed Pierre instead of just re-upping Lofton, though.
BTW, the "put mediocre or worse veterans ahead of prospects who might already be better plan" is hardly 'insane'. It seems like the best plan unless you (a) want to win it all now or (b) don't care about going to the playoffs. Never mind the concept of letting the prospects coming up at there own pace.
So, the question is, are the Dodgers being being very short sighted or very far sighted? People always make the assumption that signing an old player is a short term move, especially if it holds back prospects, but with a one year contract like Gonzo's I think it's more of a look to the future. You're actually making the team younger in the long term, and getting the most value out of your prosects. Of course, if they turn around and trade those prospects then that theory is out the window.
Colletti's made one bone-head move (Pierre) one move that looks very good (Wolf) and the rest look decent enough but we'll have to see how the chips fall on the field for final judgement.
We've got the old and the young. We're going to have plenty of injuries to deal with (like in the past few years).
He's going to make moves, no doubt. But he better still keep some guys around to fill-in for Gonzo, Nomar, Kent, etc...
The way that the Dodgers have treated Gagne this offseason speaks very poorly for the health of his right arm.
I think it's more likely his back that's concerning them than his arm. Even Gagne made comments to the press about a conditioning program to strengthen his "leg power" for this year - sounds like a bum back to me...
Why on earth would Ned want Gonzo for two years if he was looking to the future? I have my doubts on whether Gonzo is even going to put up replacement-level numbers this year, never mind 2008.
Ned does not trust his prospects at all. Injuries opened the door for Martin, Ethier, Broxton and Billingsly last season, but Ned will not intentionally open up any spots for rookies. As Ned sees it, a useless has-been like Gonzo is preferable to Kemp in 2008. Not just this season. 2008.
"bum back" - I can't mix body parts here. I should have said "bad back"...
Thanks. I enjoy being called stupid before breakfast.
Duh. But isn't part of Logan White's supposed magic that he is better at evaluating talent than most of his counterparts on other teams? I'm not saying we should swap Tomko for the consensus #1 pick 2 years ago. I'm saying let White find someone he likes in other teams' systems, who might be extractable for a team that needs a back-of-the-rotation starter now.
Griffey could be had perhaps for Penny and he fits the aging vet aquisition profile.
The younger players look good but their teams grew them just like the Dodgers need to do if they want good young players on their team.
Player HR RBI BA OBP
Sorano 46 95 0.2767 0.3512
Berkman 45 136 0.3153 0.4195
Dye, 44 120 0.3154 0.3846
Beltran 41 116 0.2745 0.3880
Jones 41 129 0.2619 0.3632
Dunn, 40 92 0.2335 0.3651
Lee, 37 116 0.2997 0.3554
Bay, 35 109 0.2860 0.3962
Hall 35 85 0.2700 0.3455
Ramirez 35 102 0.3207 0.4391
Swisher 35 95 0.2536 0.3716
Holiday 34 114 0.3256 0.3868
Guerero 33 116 0.3295 0.3820
Ibanez, 33 123 0.2891 0.3534
Wells, 32 106 0.3028 0.3575
Hunter 31 98 0.2783 0.3355
Burrell 29 95 0.2576 0.3880
Frncour 29 103 0.2596 0.2930
Monroe 28 92 0.2551 0.3009
Sizemor 28 76 0.2901 0.3747
Griffey 27 72 0.2523 0.3157
Jones, 27 81 0.2852 0.3339
Bonds 26 77 0.2698 0.4544
Byrnes, 26 79 0.2669 0.3129
Cabrera 26 114 0.3385 0.4305
Thames, 26 60 0.2557 0.3333
Wilnghm 26 74 0.2769 0.3560
Cuddyer 24 109 0.2837 0.3622
Damon, 24 80 0.2850 0.3587
Kearns 24 86 0.2644
I think Ned likes the prospects as backups only except Martin (who plays the position most baseball people consider the position you least need offense from).
Ned's a veteran guy who inherited a strong farm system and has decided to use the farm system as insurance only.
That kind of thinking will never get you over the top, but it will keep you hanging around, or, keep you on the map, or, keep you in contention (but not for a championship).
The Gonzo and Pierre money could have gone to Zito, and the dodgers would have been a way better team with Zito and without Gonzo and Pierre.
It now seems less likely though that we will be losing significant young talent unless of course there is a blockbuster trade out there.That may be the silver lining.
So here I sit, waylaid by the powerfully somnambulant effects of a head cold and a grant-writing workshop (a potentially lethal combination), basking in the plasticized atmosphere of a small but friendly auditorium in Little Rock, Arkansas where, it must be noted, middleweight champion Jermain Taylor will fight tomorrow night, and where the Angels' AA franchise (the Travelers) play, and where Rob McM (he of 6-4-2 fame) occasionally visits his in-laws and intakes a near-toxic dose of our most treasured in-state commodities: humidity and Southern Baptists and I wonder if perhaps, just perhaps, we've got this all wrong; that perhaps, just perhaps, our hand-wringing and naysaying and all-out bloviating might be somewhat unjustified that our illustrious general manager and his consortium of yes men and geriatric scouts and Kim Ng (who, Bill Singer be darned, defies stereotyping and blind categorization and is the graceful, forceful center of balance for our franchise) indeed has a plan, an intricate plan carefully orchestrated and even more carefully executed, a plan that on its face appears so stultifyingly dumb dumb as a slice of boiled ham, if you will as to be downright insulting (and beneficial to your average Juan) but in reality is remarkably brilliant in its scope and tack a real tour de force of baseball front-officery, a house blend of all things SABR and sexagenarian scouts, perhaps even writ large on a display pad that's kept in Ned Colletti's Orlando suite and is closely guarded by Bill Mueller himself, a plan that should nay, will! bring joy to Mudville (population: us) that we haven't known since 1988, except for fleeting, momentary vignettes the Finley homer, the Beltre season, the Gagne streak that provide faint promise but no sustenance for those who want so badly to again have what's that word hope.
Which year were you talking about?
Which year were you talking about?
Given that the Royals, of all teams, just gave Gil Meche (a pitcher clearly no better than Tomko, and perhaps worse) $11M a year, the possibility of shipping a "cheap" Tomko off for useful minor leaguers does not seem farfetched at all.
I would say try to deal Hendrickson first (because for some reason my gut says Tomko has more value in the pen) but if either of these guys can land us an outfield prospect or two, pull the trigger. Kuo/Billingsley, Miller, Alexander, Houlton, maybe Meloan or Elbert...we've got bullpen replacements. And the market for "proven starters" looks to be a seller's market.
I think there's a big difference between not wanting to hand youngsters starting jobs before ST starts (think Tracy and Joe Thurston and Edwin Jackson), and only conceiving of them as backups. And I think assuming that Ned is doing the latter due to a series of short-term contracts (Wolf and Gonzo--Pierre is a different issue, because Kemp may not be able to play CF) is purely conjecture in my view.
WWSH
If Gagne leaves for a similar deal, with a slightly larger amount guaranteed, I for one will be pretty pi$%ed off at Gagne. I realize that a million bucks isn't chump change, but when you've just made 20 million dollars for contributing next to nothing the past two seasons, than that "hometown discount" that the player himself spoke of certainly seems warranted.
Baseball is a business, no doubt, but Boras seems to pursue dollars with a single-mindedness that borders on obsession and irrationality. When players are making sums of money so incomprehensibly large, is it really necessary to squeeze every last drop of blood out the proverbial turnip at the expense of all civility and decency in the negotiation process. When it comes to making his clients rich, Boras certainly has no peer in the agent world. I just wonder if his clients don't walk away feeling dirty after the whole process is done, especially considering that if they had another agent they still would be rich beyond belief. At the end of the day (or his career), will Schmidt sit down and lament the fact that he only made 150 million dollars with his agent when he could have made 152.2 if he had Boras?
If you think I'm going to read that monstrosity, though, you're out of your mind.
Erhhhh... I've heard that Zito's asking for over 100 mil over more years than we've committed to Gonzo and Pierre.
WWSH
Well, you're assuming that players have other priorities than that of money. If money is the main thing they're after, then Boras does a fine job. If Gagne has decided that money really is his highest priority, then oh well, I suppose.
WWSH
I go to all that effort, and you won't even read it? I can't win for losing with you, Shimmin, which I guess is why you're so darned edgy.
Hey, let's keep it clean. This is a family website.
"guarded by Bill Mueller himself"
Ooops... shoulda read more carefully.
I think one uses asterisks before and after what you want to bold
WWSH
I read it. It wasn't bad. Faulknerian!
Should Andrew choose to break my record (and I encourage him to do so), I will not attempt to re-retaliate.
Alright. I'm taking a year off, to rehabilitate my image, by mentoring children, and by hectoring teenagers about steroids. If, a year from now, I'm still able, I will take my shot at 317.
Nice work Terry.
I still have a head cold.
I read it and enjoyed it; I didn't even need to be persuaded to do so.
I'd hesitate to call it Faulknerian, but then I can't abide Faulkner. "My mother is a fish" indeed.
I see the Dodgers as being made up of either young relatively unproven players and high priced players who are past their prime. I eagerly await the day that we spend money on a player entering his prime.
Obviously, the hope is that our young kids (Loney, Kemp, Either, Martin) turn into all-stars who can carry our team...but until we have a player like that, I won't really be satisfied. I think we deserve to have a someone like that, someone who can be a consistent top-tier player for years.
As Terry A has been known to say, "So here I sit, waylaid by the powerfully somnambulant effects of a head cold and a grant-writing workshop (a potentially lethal combination), basking in the plasticized atmosphere of a small but friendly auditorium in Little Rock, Arkansas where, it must be noted, middleweight champion Jermain Taylor will fight tomorrow night, and where the Angels' AA franchise (the Travelers) play, and where Rob McM (he of 6-4-2 fame) occasionally visits his in-laws and intakes a near-toxic dose of our most treasured in-state commodities: humidity and Southern Baptists and I wonder if perhaps, just perhaps, we've got this all wrong; that perhaps, just perhaps, our hand-wringing and naysaying and all-out bloviating might be somewhat unjustified that our illustrious general manager and his consortium of yes men and geriatric scouts and Kim Ng (who, Bill Singer be darned, defies stereotyping and blind categorization and is the graceful, forceful center of balance for our franchise) indeed has a plan, an intricate plan carefully orchestrated and even more carefully executed, a plan that on its face appears so stultifyingly dumb dumb as a slice of boiled ham, if you will as to be downright insulting (and beneficial to your average Juan) but in reality is remarkably brilliant in its scope and tack a real tour de force of baseball front-officery, a house blend of all things SABR and sexagenarian scouts, perhaps even writ large on a display pad that's kept in Ned Colletti's Orlando suite and is closely guarded by Bill Mueller himself, a plan that should nay, will! bring joy to Mudville (population: us) that we haven't known since 1988, except for fleeting, momentary vignettes the Finley homer, the Beltre season, the Gagne streak that provide faint promise but no sustenance for those who want so badly to again have what's that word hope."
That's 324!
"I'm hearing that Hendrickson might go to the Cubs now for spare parts"
You can't beat the genius of that with a stick.
http://tinyurl.com/yzu2do
Id rather have one of the promising young Dodgers hitters or pitchers with a minimum salary pitching or playing in the field daily along with signing Zito instead of Gonzo and Pierre for the same money.
Is Daniel Snyder buying this team?
So most teams are going to be built with a combination (if fortunate) of young (rookie - 2 year) players and vets that may be going into their decline. If fortutnate, you might have a few guys in their prime but more likely those will be home grown.
a) "A rabbit is loose" when Juan Pierre reaches base.
b) Any mention of Gonzo's triplets.
http://tinyurl.com/yc2klw
yesterday's Globe, I think, surrounding Red Sox
moves re: the too-patient, less-than-the-sum-
of-his-parts Drew and the how-will-he-play-on-the-big stage Lugo:
Summing:
Graphic:
Cyberstats:
Disuccs: (sic)
Disuccs. Say n'more.
Note to adversaries: if tempted to reference, please don't turn "too-patient,
less-than-the-sum-of-his-parts" into
"the tragically awful, worthless, J.D" 'Preciate it....
Back to exile....
Don't forget about hearing about Robert Wadlow every time Chris Young pitches.
It strikes me as odd how some players are covered or reported on different than others.
Perhaps I can coach the U.S. National team. I have a German surname. My grandfather was a semipro soccer player in the 1920s. I could adopt some of his tactics to the U.S. team.
I believe it involves a lot of hitting people in the groin.
2. Gil Meche
3. Ned, you're a genius (Schmidt)
4. You have to be kidding me with # 1 and 2
I both wonder whether that isn't one of Vin's own coinage and hope to high heaven we now find a taker for Bret "Lambchop" Tomko.
I was angry, but I had been willing to renegotiate.
"I don't plan on (using) it," he said Tuesday. "I've enjoyed my time living in Los Angeles. That's what it was there for to make sure (wife) Sheigh and I didn't come all the way across the country (from their native Georgia) and get stuck in a situation we didn't like."
About using the option: "You know what I don't think so," said Drew, who also has a limited no trade clause. "Ultimately it's my decision, and we're happy where we're at. We love our house in Pasadena. My wife is happy. She's made a lot of friends in our neighborhood and with the other players' wives. That's really the thing that was nerve-wracking about it (free agency) for me.
"At some point, you make those commitments and you stick to them."
http://tinyurl.com/yz2vjh
Did the front office know it was a possibility? Absolutely. Were they blindsided when it happened, despite all previous evidence to the contrary? How could they not be?
bank that.
imagine, they want Manny gone... and his #s buy a little more looking the other way i would think.
Never heard Vin mention him when Chris Young pitches.
Vin told the story at least three times about "The Alton Giant."
Ken Gurnick is a shill of management. He has just as much objectivity as Josh Rawitch does. None.
Citing quotes to reporters as evidence is the first lapse of judgment by Ned Colletti, if they were indeed 'blindsided'.
Honestly, does anyone take as the stone cold truth what an athlete says to the media? Or even a GM says to the media?
They werent blindsided.
They were just hoping Drew was stupid enough to give them a hometown discount. He didnt.
For a guy that held out on the Phillies when he was drafted, is this really a surprise? He went to the highest bidder.
A player signing with the higest bidder is a 'shock' to the front office? Geez. Talk about damage control.
Mahalo.
That's gotta be a joke, right? Gurnick hates the Dodgers, has ever since he was a TSN reporter in the 1980s. In the press box during games, all he does is make snide and/or condescending remarks (and loud ones) about the team and management no matter which regime it may be. The fact that he can even remain employed by MLB.com is a pretty good argument for the notion that MLB doesn't require its reporters to be shills.
I am glad that my parents didn't give me Robert Wadlow's middle name. I think I would have been beaten up a lot in elementary school if I went by Pershing.
So do many of us, but that doesn't mean we hate the team. Maybe he's just an unsatisfied fan.
Who does he root for?
I guess he might be a closet Dodger fan who just enjoys wallowing in misery. Actually, he's exactly the type who might run DodgerBlues.
If only our current Administration was committed to the "Dominate With Adequacy" principle...
And Klinsmann's ploy is just a negotiating tactic.
Do you hear me! Negotiating tactic! (begging)
Gotta go...
In case you were wondering the Dodgers neither picked anybody nor had anyone picked from them.
What hometown discount are you talking about? He had a guaranteed $11 million/year for three years. If this were truly a "highest bidder" deal -- like, say, the current Gagne situation -- you might have a point. But it's not. He chose to give up that combo of money and years for a new combo.
Of course it wasn't a surprise in hindsight. Of course he had the right to do what he did.
You apparently choose to dismiss everything the various parties said in public, including JD Drew and Colletti, based on reporters being shills or dupes or tools. There is a fine line between skepticism and cynicism, and I think you and I are on either side of that line.
First Second Third Left Right [Bench]
Nomar Kent Betemit Gonzo Ethier [Loney] (nominal Opening Day lineup)
Nomar Kent Betemit Gonzo Loney [Ethier]
Nomar Kent Betemit Ethier Loney [Gonzo] (Gonzo needs his rest!)
Loney Kent Nomar Gonzo Ethier [Betemit]
Loney Kent Betemit Gonzo Ethier [Nomar]
Loney Betemit Nomar Gonzo Ethier [Kent]
If we rotated through these lineups, giving Gonzo two days off every seven games and everybody else one game off per seven, we get 138 starts out of everybody but Gonzo (115). There is a bit of rounding error there (five starts to pass around), and we don't account for occasional starts for Anderson, Martinez, Saenz, (Werth/Repko?), but we don't account for injury, either. So it would help keep everybody fresh while neither blocking Loney/Ethier or forcing anybody to play more than two positions (and Gonzo/Kent only one). Sure, I'm probably thinking too hard, but it doesn't look so bad to me, and we cross the Kemp/LaRoche bridge when we come to it. Thoughts?
142 Is there a resource showing options left on Dodger youngsters ?
"Umm Loney Doesn't play .284, 4 homers and 18 RBI's doesn't warrent a starting spot on a contending team for a first year player. Check out Ryan Howard's stats as a rookie (22 homers 63 RBi's) , or Chris Duncan's from last year (.293 22 homeruns). Those kind of players are the ones that make you clear out a starting position them...not Loney"
Then, with much less confidence in man, he returns to DT.
"Signed as a nondrafted free agent in 2003 out of Lewis-Clark State (Idaho), Hoorelbeke has been a reliable bullpen arm in each of his three pro seasons. He spent all of 2006 at Double-A Jacksonville, going 2-2, 2.63 in 72 innings and followed that up with 1-0, 2.84 numbers in 19 innings in the AFL. Hoorelbeke also started his pro career throwing from a high three-quarters arm angle, but the Dodgers dropped it down slightly before last season. He has average stuff across the board, with an 87-89 mph fastball, 82-84 mph slider with good late life and an 80 mph changeup."
I would only go to the Dodgers.com board if we signed Barry Bonds.
Not that it matters, but upon further review, it looks like they might be correct. Hoorelbeke was signed in 2003 and players signed at age 19 or older (he was 23) have only four seasons before they have to be protected. 2003, 04, 05, 06.
Hoorelbeke didn't pitch the year he was signed, which is probably the reason for the confusion. Maybe he had an arm injury?
Sort of like the Kevin Malone regime.
To answer your question, he had a WARP of 4.1 last year. According BP's MORP (WARP's value in dollars) that was worth ~$6.4 million. But that was in pre-2006-offseason money, so yes, it seems like Gonzo is probably worth something like $7m if he plays everyday. Does that make the deal a lose-lose proposition?
Secondly, why on top of that, did they give him 5/55?
Dayton Moore is supposed to be the brains behind the Atlanta Braves farm system. What exactly does he see in Meche?
(Dennis Green voice)
"He is who we thought he is!"
I don't even know how to respond to that...
http://tinyurl.com/wf95r
Thanks for the feedback. Did you factor Gonzo's age into the valuation?
Status on offseason moves so far, JMO:
Thumbs up:
Nomar
Schmidt
Lieberthal
Saito resigned
Thumbs down:
Gonzo
Pierre (# of years makes this a downer)
Wait and see:
Wolf (If healthy now could be strong #3 or 4)
Cross your fingers:
Loney, Broxton, Laroche and Bills remain in Dodger Blue!!
I am pretty confident he will get hurt and/or suck.
So did Pierre, and in all honesty, Nomar. (Old, injury-prone, "proven veteran," etc.).
We really are turning into a shining outpost of San Francisco Giants-brand baseball. How depressing.
I agree. Has anyone noticed that the worst thing that has happened so far is Kemp (isn't ready quite yet anyway) is blocked for a year? Loney will end up probably being a super sub for Nomar and in the OF corners. Kuo may be blocked for half a season, but pitchers break down all the time and he is ready to step in if one of our SPs break down. I would much rather have Gonzo block one of our kids and save them for a real deal like Wells or ManRam than dealing them for scraps like some GMs do (Minaya, Sabean, Krivsky).
If Sabean were running things, Loney and Kemp would have been dealt for a "proven veteran" long ago. This is not the LA Giants.
April - 242/349.527/876
May 299/381/381/762
June 217/330/293/623
July 389/448/705/1.153
August 237/310/395/705
Sept/Oct 247/302/371/673
I was hoping that Ned was impressed by how the kids saved the team's season last year. At the time I was thinking that the success of Martin and Ethier, and the early success of Kemp -- something like 7 home runs in his first 42 at-bats -- would make Ned a bit more patient with the kids.
I'm not saying he should just hand jobs to all of them. I still believe that stop-gap veterans can facilitate the development of young players and that you can extend their 0-6 work-serive clock in a reasonable way that doesn't curb development, so much the better.
I believe many of the Dodgers' old players will suffer injuries, creating more opportunities in 2007. But it's growing harder to ignore Ned's preference for veterans and if the Wells rumors are true we can expect 2-4 young players to be on their way out.
"Hoorelbeke only has three years expirence. He's not eligible until next year."
He was eligible because it's not "experience" but rather "signing date" and he signed a year earlier.
This is not true. The worst thing that has happened so far is signing Pierre. The second worst is signing Gonzalez. The problem is not blocking prospects, that is a red herring. The problem is that these players are replaceable by people in the stands. Or put another way, good players can block all the prospects they want.
The triplets were at grandma's in July.
If not, LA is at ~$118M (with Schmidt)?
Mahalo.
Sorta like how Lo Duca's numbers dropped off terribly in 2002, when he was taking part in the union's negotiations over the CBA.
Paulie, pre-ASB: 326/384/458/842
Paulie, post-ASB: 233/268/341/609
Ahhh yes the Pierre signing. I definitely am in denial on that one to the point that I honestly forgot, but I disagree on the Gonzalez signing. At the very least, it could be debated that Gonzo will provide a one-year competition for Loney/Kemp and will allow them to compete for a job in an environment where there is less pressure to perform right away. My feeling is that Gonzo will start about 110-120 games with Loney seeing more than his fair share of PT.
Brandon McCarthy, SP, White Sox:
Anthony Reyes, SP, St. Louis:
Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis:
Ervin Santana, SP, L.A. Angels:
Matt Garza, SP, MIN:
Rich Hill, SP, Chicago Cubs:
Jason Hirsh, SP, Houston:
Adam Loewen, SP, Baltimore:
Aaron Heilman, SP, N.Y. Mets
Mike Pelfrey N.Y. Mets
Phil Humber N.Y. Mets
Joel Zumaya, RP, Detroit:
Mike Gonzalez, RP, Pittsburgh:
Phil Hughes, Yankees
Adam Miller, Cleveland
Humberto Sanchez Tigers,
John Danks Texas
Cincinnati's Homer Bailey.
Assuming the Dodgers want to kep their young pitchers, might Cards or Mets go after Crawford?
If the Dodgers traded Penny, Tomko, Hendrickson to Devil Rays for Crawford, would it be easier for the Rays to those three individually to get a couple of the pitchers listed?
If this crazy thing happened would Crawford understand that he would backup Gonzo, the promised one?
Devil Rays would never do that deal. Remember the Devil Rays screw us, not the other way around.
Yes, on those terms, a debate can be had. It's the "Look how many doubles he had last year" talk that makes one quiver.
I don't understand the rest of that sentence, but with this kind of beginning, I don't think the rest matters.
Like Kerry, it was only one word I left out of the apparent joke.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=70
Expectations are key here. I don't see Gonzo as a .300/.380/.900 guy anymore. I see him as equal in ability to Ethier or Loney for this season (obviously later on, they will be better, perhaps even this season). I see him as a guy that you can count on to reliably to hit .270, hit about 15-20 homers and have a total of about 60 extra base hits.
For that, in this market, $7 mil is not too bad and he may just be a positive influence/coach for Ethier and Loney. Gonzo could also be above previous production because he may play 20 fewer games per year.
At some point Nomar instead of Loney should be part of that competition. I would start Nomar at third and play him there until he drops. Loney would be at first and if LaRoche starts shoving his way into the lineup at third, Nomar would start shoving Gonzo out in left.
Humberto Sanchez Tigers,
John Danks Texas
Cincinnati's Homer Bailey.
Aloha, that was an excellent compilation. I'm curious. Why is Homer Bailey referred to in your list as "Cincinnati's Homer Bailey" while the rest of the players are listed by name and team? Is it, perhaps, Mr. Bailey's trade name like "Minnestoa Fats" or "Southside Johnny". If so, I suggest that we bestow a similar title on a Dodger.
I nominate the "Dodgers Juan Pierre".
Is Betemit destined to be a 5th infielder or is he a legitimately good player whose potential is untapped. I am fairly new to this board so I was not here when the trade for him happened last year. How does Betemit project in the next few years?
The Duke of Flatbush
I think LA is optimistic, but not sold on him.
Jon, Nice Blazing Saddles reference in the headline.
Planters' Juan Pierre
Honda's Jeff Kent
Dos Equis' Rafael Furcal
Geritol's Luis Gonzales
Gagne thoughts:
We paid him a million dollar buyout by denying the $12 million option, right? We couldn't offer him arbitration because that would have guaranteed him close to 10 mil. No arbitration means no draft picks either, a moot point if we sign him ourselves. If we are offering him $4 guaranteed and he wants $6 guaranteed, we aren't too far apart. Is the hang-up on incentives? Wouldn't we want him to reach incentives?
In this market, giving Gonzo 7.5 million when we can have Ethier/Loney play for 500,000 is fine if we have the money. I don't mind paying Gonzo to sit if the others are producing. But we eat 7 million. We are paying Fatdalis to "pitch" for KC, can't we take a two million dollar chance on the most exciting Dodger pitcher since Orel and Fernando?
If we are willing to give him 4 million and he wants 6, we can get a deal done, can't we? Isn't signing Gagne a great marketing move for the lay Dodger fan who simply loves to cheer for a guy they like?
Sign Eric Ned!
If Gagne like the community and the fans here would be more leniant than say Boston, why would you go to that pressure cooker?
Boras ignores those factors based on his past record of negotiating!! Good faith negotiating is an oxymoron in his book! JMO
Olmeda Saenz "Attack of the Killer Tomatoes"
Juan Pierre "Slappy Gilmore"
Jeff Kent "Boogie Nights"
Nomar Garciappara "Goal!" or "The Doctor"
Luis Gonzalez "Muppets Take Manhatten"
J.D. Drew "All About the Benjamins"
Free Agent favorite movies:
Jose Mesa "Close Encounters with the Third Grade"
I don't even know how to respond to that...
The proper response is:
"Hello. My Name Is Inigo Montoya. You Killed My Father. Prepare To Die."
Sorry, couldn't resist.
"First baseman J.T. Snow announced his retirement Thursday after a 15-year major league career, and he will rejoin the San Francisco Giants in several roles.
"Snow has been hired by the Giants, his team from 1997-2005, for about 20 games as a radio broadcaster. He also will serve as a roving minor league coach and an instructor at spring training, in addition to advising general manager Brian Sabean and making personal appearances on behalf of the club."
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=2689976
Hmmm.... I think that if Gagne is healthy, he is the closer for us. I wish he would accept our offer, I think it is a fair offer. My point was simply that the difference between what is rumored to be the sought after number, 6 mill., isn't far off from what we offered and it could still get done if we truly want to take a chance on him.
I agree that we should be okay with Saito and Broxton, if we don't deal with injuries. I am fearful Tomko would get a shot to implode if either of the two you mention get hurt or are ineffective.
I thought the Baez trade was a good one last year, I thought we had a proved back up plan to Gagne. I was wrong of course.
I think it could be one of two things.
1. All of this is just posturing by Boras because he knows that the Dodgers are the best fit and he is trying to drive up the price.
2. Gagne just wants more in the way of incentives and/or vesting options that would guarantee a second year that Ned may not be comfortable with given the possibilities offered by Brazoban, Saito, Broxton, and even Greg Miller.
If this is truly about $1 mil when the Dodgers already gave him that in a buyout, then go on your merry way, Mr Gagne.
How about "Inconceivable!"
Although we all know that big save numbers do not necessarily equal a good pitcher (Derrick Turnbow anyone?), big save numbers typically do equal a big contract from someone looking for a "proven" closer so Gagne may likely be looking for a situation where he can step directly into the closer's role on opening day.
I agree. I do not begrudge a player seeking market value for his services, but the Dodgers don't need those services as much as the teams that are willing to pay Gagne's price (who are setting the market and willing to take the risk).
Good luck, Mr. Gagne. I honestly hope you win the Cy Young in the American league.
246 - That $51M gets returned to Boston, and doubtful that number is repeated next year, so heck yeah they're sweating right now.
I'm setting the over-under right now at 73.
'The Dodgers might entertain offers for starter Brad Penny to acquire an impact bat, but don't look for Los Angeles to make a run at reacquiring third baseman Adrian Beltre from Seattle. "We're not going to take that tour twice," said a Dodgers official.'
http://tinyurl.com/wf3hl
He's got 3yrs/$35.25M left on his contract, and has 8 teams to which he can refuse a trade to.
But more importantly, let's not kid ourselves credibility has no place in baseball negotiations, its all about money and need. Both of those restore and take away credibility whenever its convenient for the parties involved.
argh.
it was a complete fluke for one.
You misspelled "Hochevar."
;)
His career line of .316/.394/.710 is pretty anemic for anything more than a lefty bat off the bench that can play a few positions.
I agree. We don't "need" Gagne so let him get his "money" from someone else. By allowing Gagne to walk, Colletti may get some of his credibility back, for the next time he has to negotiate with Boras.
personally, if Wilson gets around 550ABs next year, the betemit will go boom at least 25-30 times.
It's not like the money is in escrow or off in some impound account gaining interest.
nate, slow down. Take a breath.
waitress was trying to drug me.
I would love to see our SP be: Schmidt, Lowe, Wolf, Milton, Kuo with Billingsley in Long Relief since he doesnt go far into games yet and also as back-up if Kuo gets hurt.
Our line-up would be:
CF Pierre
SS Furcal
3B Nomar
1B Dunn
2B Kent
LF Luis G.
RF Freel/Werth/Loney, etc
C Martin
I was looking at the reds as a potential trading partner for Penny but I dont really want anyone on their big league team. Although if they offer Bailey and Bruce, I dont think I could say no.
Forgive my inquisitiveness, I am just fascinated to meet you.
Mahalo.
I think Haren's worth more and Beane knows it.
Would one year of Wells be worthy of Penny and Ethier?
signed 5-year deal worth 64M on 12/17/04- he receives a 7M signing bonus payable in 2005 and salaries of 10M in 2005 and 11 to 12M each year in 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009- + he can earn a 75K bonus for receiving the most All-Star votes in MLB and 50K for receiving the most votes in the AL (however he receives no bonus for actually making the All-Star team)- + he receives a limited NO-TRADE clause that allows him to veto trades to eight teams of his choice (SD is reportedly among those 8 teams)
I am good at maths.
I think Baldelli is a more likely target, but I'm not sure TB wants Penny, even at his relatively modest salary.
I think what Ned should do is just sit back and relax till spring and watch as desperate teams start coming to him with offers he wont be able to refuse for Penny.
That finished, what, 2nd in the league in runs, not to mention making the playoffs? I mean, I see how that kind of offense is sketchy, but Ned didn't exactly fail miserably with it the first time.
The Penny/Ethier for Wells trade would be a risk, but I would be inclined to do it. I'm glad that I do not have to pull that trigger, though
299
I would LOVE to see Baldelli for Penny and either Ethier, Kemp, or Loney.
Your past actions don't have to be complete failures for you to learn from them.
Or Penny and two others for Crawford. Talk about scoring runs...
Jeff Kent "Boogie Nights"
Jeff Kent "The Jerk"
Maybe the Braves would be good partners too since they have Andruw, Giles, and Smoltz and little chance of beating out the Mets in that division.
Someone in an earlier thread didn't think much of his fastball. Yet I've read where it's considered close to if not the best in the NL, and he put it on display in the all-star game.
I think falling in love with it and not concentrating enough on other pitches is part of his problem overall, not just last year. Sometimes he seems to have basically no breaking pitch, so hitters sit on the FB. If they can't actually hit it, they foul it off, run up his pitch count, and get him out of the game. At least that seemed to work in the second half.
I think a bug part of his problem lies between his ears. If you could give him Maddux's smarts and temperament, and he could develop reliable breaking and off-speed stuff, he'd be an All-Star every year. If, if.....
Oops, sorry...not supposed to be driving his trade value down....
[307] i don't imagine ethier ever having a 57-homer season, though, or anything close.
certainly that also should factor into the equation.
2005 ab 620 HR 28
2006 ab 611 HR 32
I honestly think there are several young players in the Org. capable of reaching this power level for approx. $350,000. in 2008 and possibly even in 2007.
1) On Maddux moving to San Diego. He's clearly not the pitcher he was, except in flashes. It's hard to argue he should be in the Dodger rotation ahead of those now penciled in. But I hate to lose what he brings to a clubhouse. It was said Lowe spent lots of time picking his brain, which may have had something to do with his strong showing after Maddux arrived. Let's hope Lowe has a good memory.
In a few years Maddux might make one of the best pitching coaches ever, if he chooses.
2) On wanting Beltre back. He's a gold glove level fielder with one standout year offensively. Wanting him back--which the Dodgers apparently don't--in the place where he had that great year in hopes he can recreate it is mostly wishful thinking, IMO. He hasn't come close in Seattle.
318 I don't think Beltre will ever repeat '04, but I do have bad memories of his visit to DS this year, with the exception of Lowe's complete game, if I remember rightly.
Why won't this idea just go away?
"She began dating Dodgers RHP Brad Penny last summer. Prior to dating Milano, Penny was 102 and cruising to a Cy Young award. With her, Penny was 67 with a 6.25 ERA, and he missed most of the post-season with a lower back injury."
I don't know what the truth is, I just know that he is one lucky fat guy.
http://tinyurl.com/thr78
If Penny had his same 2006 season for somebody else, who here would be clamoring to trade for him? Undervalued? He is damaged goods at this moment in time. Heck, even if somebody who had a much longer track history of success than Penny had Penny's second half, I would not want Colleti to give up very much for him.
LA/SF/SD
c - Martin / Molina / Bard
1b - Nomar / Aurilla / A Gonzalez
2b - Kent / Durhan / Walker
ss - Furcal / Vizquel / Greene
3b - Betemit / Feliz / Kouzamoff
lf - Either / Bonds / Sledge
cf - Pierre / Roberts / Cameron
rf - Gonzo / Winn / Giles
sp - Schmidt / Cain / Peavy
sp - Lowe / Morris / Young
sp - Penny / Lowry / Maddux
sp - Wolf / Sanchez / Hensley
sp - Kuo / Hennesy / Thompson
cl - Saito / Benitez / Hoffman
Have to believe that the Giants are looking for another starter and the Pads for a cheap outfielder. But all-in-all, I think we look pretty good for the division. Do you think I'm cursing us by not including the Dbacks in this?
pssst!
I think our 5th starters is Bills, not Kuo...
Gonzo like sherrif Ned...
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