Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Jon's other site:
Screen Jam
TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Some of you may have noticed imbalance in the potential 2007 Dodger lineup, in terms of batting against right-handed or left-handed pitching.
Here are the current lineups, ranked by 2006 OPS. Note that small-sample size cautions apply:
vs. lefties
2B - Jeff Kent, 1.036
1B - Nomar Garciaparra, 1.020
C - Russell Martin, .972
SS - Rafael Furcal, .928
RF - Andre Ethier, .846
LF - Luis Gonzalez, .740
CF - Juan Pierre, .699
3B - Wilson Betemit, .460
Bench - Olmedo Saenz, 1.199
Bench - Jason Repko, .875
Bench - James Loney, .850
Bench - Ramon Martinez, .699
Minors - Matt Kemp, 1.059/Jacksonville, 1.310/Las Vegas, .578/Los Angeles
Minors - Andy LaRoche, .921/Jacksonville, 1.023/Las Vegas
vs. righties
RF - Andre Ethier, .842
1B - Nomar Garciaparra, .839
LF - Luis Gonzalez, .819
SS - Rafael Furcal, .814
2B - Jeff Kent, .805
C - Russell Martin, .754
3B - Wilson Betemit, .742
CF - Juan Pierre, .728
Bench - Marlon Anderson, 1.341
Bench - James Loney, .914
Bench - Olmedo Saenz, .793
Minors - Andy LaRoche, .889/Jacksonville, .925/Las Vegas
Minors - Matt Kemp, .849/Jacksonville, .892/Las Vegas, .808/Los Angeles
Against lefties, things look lovely in five spots of the lineup, and there are solutions in two others. Betemit's hollow performance against lefties makes as little sense to me as Anderson's brilliance for the team in September - there should be improvement there. In any case, LaRoche may soon be ready to step in and help, and Saenz can spot-start as well. (If the Dodgers were to plant Garciaparra at third base for the first couple of months of the season to allow Loney to play full-time, that might also improve the dynamic - though don't count on it happening.) Kemp could also be ready to boost things by summertime.
Much more troubling is the Dodgers' potential weakness against right-handed pitching - which the Dodgers will face more often. None of the current starters OPSed better than .850 against righties last season. Some players are young enough to improve, but countering that are the elders ready to decline.
Dodger general manager Ned Colletti signed free-agents Garciaparra, Gonzalez and Pierre because he felt he couldn't count on Loney, Ethier and Kemp to carry those spots in the lineup. It's not a view I agree with necessarily - no doubt, the Dodgers would panic if Loney began the year with a .500 OPS in April, in contrast to how they let veterans like Kent and Furcal ride out their terrible starts. However, given that the team appears to have money to burn this offseason, there's nothing inherently wrong with stockpiling depth ... if the Dodgers know what to do with it.
But for the Dodgers to reach the postseason, regardless of Colletti's precuations, my guess is they will need at least two of Loney/Kemp/Ethier/LaRoche/Betemit to play above-average ball. It doesn't even need to be for the entire season, just for the bulk of it. They're the ones with the high ceilings; they, as opposed to the aging free agents, are the ones who can truly make a difference, as opposed to being band-aids with occasional professional at-bats, as they say.
I'm not trying to dismiss what someone like Garciaparra can do, with his September heroics still fresh in mind, but I'm trying to be realistic and not forget his overall second-half slump either. As Martin's 10th-inning summertime homer against the Giants reminded us, you don't have to be a vet to be a hero.
The Dodgers can't expect Kent, Gonzalez, Garciaparra, Pierre or even Furcal to be much better than they were in 2006. But Loney 2007 can be better than Garciaparra 2006. Kemp 2007 can be better than Gonzalez 2006. LaRoche/Betemit 2007 can be better than what the Dodgers had at third base in 2006. Short of a trade for a power threat against righties, the kids' success or failure (and yes, they might well fail as far as 2007 is concerned) is what will make or break the Dodger lineup.
With age and health history vulnerablizing the vets, the youngsters should get their chances.
Did you mean to say "disagree"...?
Me likey.
IIRC during most of his second-half tailspin he was fighting injuries, as usual.
Has he ever had a whole season without injury? Was he inury-free (or mostly) when he won the batting titles?
10. Joel Guzman, INF-OF, B (status has slipped but still very young)
13. Justin Ruggiano, OF, B- (sleeper outfield prospect)
19. Sergio Pedroza, OF, C+ (power and patience)
---
My question is why do people keep pondering Ruggs as a "sleeper OF prospect" when he's got no overwhelming tools and his overall numbers are pedestrian.
So it is the June first lineup that I would most like to project and that would be:
ss Furcal
rf Kemp
cf Rios
great speed so far
3b Garciaparra
1b Loney
2b Kent
lf Ethier
c Martin
If by June first the Angels panic with their lack of power and perhaps they would like to have Kent and Garciaparra in exchange for the pitcher some team really wants that also has a great young second baseman the Dodgers would want.
Then the Dodgers have to figure out a way to bring up Meloan, Alexander, and Miller in exchange for Tomko, Hendrickson, and Biemel. Oh, I almost forgot; something has to be done with Gonzo and Pierre.
In summary I look forward to the 25 man roster to not include: Kent, Nomar, Pierre, Gonzo, Penny, Tomko, Hendrickson, Biemel, and maybe Betemit. They are almost there; just a few miner tweaks away.
Opening day will be exciting and June 1 could be even more exciting.
http://tinyurl.com/tjmuw
And if veterans DO get hurt early on, I think it much more likely that Colletti trades kids (though maybe not the best ones) for even more mediocre veterans.
IIRC, Betemit didnt hit well against lefties in Atlanta either.
But Loney 2007 can be better than Garciaparra 2006.
I disagree. Granted Nomar fell way off in the 2nd half, but his 1st half was great. I dont think Loney overall can match what Nomar did. Until Loney can put together two consecutive good seasons, I'll be a skeptic of his. He's done mostly nothing, with empty peripherals, for the majority of his career.
Kemp 2007 can be better than Gonzalez 2006. LaRoche/Betemit 2007 can be better than what the Dodgers had at third base in 2006
I definitely agree there. Depends on how much power Betemit can show, and whether LaRoche is even given a chance.
Wheres the power? Whos the big bat?
His career line: .306/.411/.511 is pretty good, considering he hasnt played in very good hitters parks or leagues.
After the trade last year, he hit .333/.442/.630 for Montgomery in 107 ABs.
He's in the right organization now. The Dodgers dont really give guys their scouts dont like much of a chance, even if they put up great numbers.
You are correct. The lines range between 1 point for either team.
"Yankees broadcaster Murcer watches Independence Bowl after brain surgery"
If someone ripped my skull open, I would want to make sure I would have all my faculties available to watch the Independence Bowl too!
Free your mind, and the rest will follow
"Penguins killed on Texas highway; octopus unharmed".
No joy in the pengun demise you understand.
CBS, oh CBS thanks for the funeral. Great decision. Instead of a football game we get to look at black limos moving slowly and talk about the pardon.
the dodger scouts were the reason ruggiano was drafted. are you kidding? do you just throw stuff on the wall and hope it sticks?
Granted, I would probably enjoy that, but I imagine that would draw some complaints.
all three of those guys have inflated grades. Guzman is living off of past reputation, ruggiano is from putting up decent stats where he was 2-3 yrs older then the competition and pedroza because of his power.
the thing with pedroza is that he wont be anything more then a DH. he has a strong arm but below average outfield skills and his athleticism is lacking if a switch to catcher wants to be made. Due to his extreme ability to strikeout in the lower minors, i am also very skeptical of his ability to hit for an acceptable average in the majors so teams will allow him to get plate appearances. The ISOs are very nice, but they dont go that far when you have to sport an extremely high BABIP to even reach a .260ish batting average.
Personally, I might leave Guzman at the B just out of hope he can snap out of it at his age. Ruggiano should be knocked a grade down to a C+ and pedroza to a C.
Well, the Raiders are 2-13.
I could see Pedroza having a Russell Branyan like career, or at the very least be the guy who hits one pinch home run a month while striking out in every other at bat.
its fine. at the end of my rant, i convinced myself it should stay a B.
By the same token, I would prefer Kuo over Penny. With Billingley and Kuo starting, Broxton setting up and eventually closing, and Elbert and Kershaw on the way up, we have the makings of an exciting young pitching staff. Why would anyone rather watch Hendrickson, Tomko, Beimel, Dessens, et al?
Three years ago, the Detroit Tigers were the worst team in baseball. Last year, they were one of the best. Youngsters made the difference.
Last year, the Dodgers started the year at catcher with Navarro (a youngster, yes, but a starter from the previous season); no one could believe that Martin was ready. A few weeks, a passel of bad throws from Navarro, and hot hitting from Martin changed management's tack. It took a while, too, for them to figure out that Ethier was for real.
The mystery in all this for me is what happens to Betemit. Do the Dodgers have a long range plan to shift him to second once LaRoche has arrived and Kent has retired? Has anyone done a comparison of Betemit and LaRoche as third sackers/hitters?
I really don't want to deal any starters at this point. The reason why #4 and #5 starters are so bad isn't because the team's original 4 and 5 are bad, it's because when a starter goes down (which is guaranteed to happen) they get replaced by the 6 and 7 guys, who tend to be atrocious.
The Dodgers can lose a couple pitchers and still have a strong four and five. I don't want to lose the one strength this team has.
The Padres are really starting to tick me off with the personnel moves that fall into their laps. Last year, they were bequeathed Cla Merideth, Josh Bard, Chris Young, and Adrian Gonzalez -- the only player of any value that went the other way was Akinora Otsuka -- and this year they get quality free agents without having to dole out long-term commitments. Greg Maddux signs a one-year deal, maybe the starting pitching bargain of the offseason, and now the Padres benefit from Marcus Giles being cut loose by the Braves. They essentially traded Josh Barfield for Kevin Kouzmanoff and Marcus Giles, and upgraded from the Vinnie Castilla and Barfield arrangement with which they started 2006.
I tend to agree, and while I think you have to give Kevin Towers some credit, to say he knew several of those players would preform to the extent they did is a bit much....... where would they really be last year and where would they be going into this year w/ out there recent fourtune?...........lucky bastards(:
They are closing the stock markets on January 2 for President Ford's funeral and that is no small matter.
I think you can live without the Sun Bowl for a bit.
I believe you speak for a majority of DodgerThoughts regulars, but nowhere near a majority of Dodger fans.
Most fans don't know anything about prospects until they see them. And most believe whatever the LA Times and ESPN tell them about "proven veterans," and hope that next season will be as good as their various peak seasons, no matter how long ago.
At least that's what I believe.
When was the last time the Dodgers got something good for nothing? Antonio Perez for Jason Romano? K. Brown for Weaver and Brazoban?
one - the morning talk show host subbing for Colin Cowherd on ESPN this morning picked the Dodgers to win the World Series this year, and,
two - a few weeks ago, I rearranged my vacation travel plans for the upcoming year after all the free agent signings so that I will be in town for the World Series
Its Unbelievable how people (in importiant positions) actually think the Dodgers upgraded with "proven vets" like Gonzo and Pierre
As I have read DT and listened to the in depth analysis I have grown to understand those "back of the baseball cards stats" more deeply. Now when I talk to friends about the Dodgers I hear myself saying things all the time about how empty Pierre's steals and singles are when he doesn't get on base enough or how Gonzo's veteran presence just means he should be a coach and not a player.
I think that the mindset is slowly changing, though. I believe that there is more thoughtful conversation going on around the watercooler and on the sports talk shows.
I even saw Rich Lederer this past weekend on ESPNews talking about Defensive Adjusted ERA in reference to the guy the Brewers signed.
Sorry about the long post. I just wanted to share how this "old school" baseball fan has been converted into a more thoughtful fan. So, thank you DT for the great conversation and well thought out posts and comments.
I enjoyed the beating that PPepperdine took in the regionals at the hands of Missouri.
If I recall correctly the Dodgers are planning on giving Carlos Santana a shot at becoming a catcher. In 2005 he was an outfielder and then last year he played 3b and outfield. He evidently has a cannon for an arm but is not particularly fast. A switch hitting Dominican with decent power and decent plate discipline he may have only been a marginal prospect as an outfielder but if he can make it as a catcher his star will burn brighter. If you throw out his time at High A when the Dodgers threw him to the wolves he had another growth year and at his young age has plenty of time to grow. One of my favorite unheralded Dodger prospects.
He also did a cool duet with Everlast a few years back.
Unfortunately, that doesn't help the Dodgers problem of having to use someone like A.J. Ellis to backup Lieberthal if Russell Martin goes down.
the dodger scouts were the reason ruggiano was drafted.
What was the reason he repeated AA then?
38--
K. Brown for Weaver and Brazoban?
Considering Brown was coming off a 200+IP 2.39 ERA season...I dont think he was 'nothing'. If anything, I think that was one of the worst deals the Dodgers have made, if you realize how high Brown's value was at the time. They sold high on him for sure, but they got basically nothing for him. An average pitcher like Weaver really didnt help the team that much.
Jeff Weaver played probably his two best seasons in LA, and he did pitch deep into games (444 IP over those two seasons). Brazoban, don't forget, proved to be a useful reliever, and we got him still as a rookie, so he's young and still quite useful.
I'll post my guesses once I get general approval that this isn't a fate tempter in the spirit of TYFN #9.
Or maybe Mike Riley felt that he was better off trying to get out of El Paso as fast as he can. I hear that Eric Enders was making crank phone calls to the hotels where the Beavers were staying and kept asking if Terry Baker was on the team.
Given the success he's had with pretty much just the FB, what might he do with other effective pitches?
you could argue that we may have upgraded to a better team overall this year with personal. Mostly by default due to the potential of young players coming up.....although how they are used to the amount that we are any better is another story
I expect LaRoche and Loney to be the guys that step and I expect Martin to be better than he was last year.
If Kuo really is better as a starter, then he ought to start. If not in LA, then in Vegas, waiting for an injury.
To someone else, hopefully.
The Cougars had lost 42 yards on the previous play due to a bad snap and then a player trying to kick the ball out of bounds.
I did say or in AAA. He can at least be a long reliever out of the pen.
In 1999 the &$%^ manager of the Orioles, Ray Miller, ordered Al Reyes (whose own injuries are purest karma)to bean Nomar. Reyes hit Nomar with the pitch on his wrist, and he eventually needed surgery on the tendon in 2001 (this is after the titles in 1999 [.357] and 2000 [.372].) Conventional wisdom says that Nomar's never been the same since. I think they're probably right, and you won't get 99/00 Nomar.
What I think you will get is 2002-2003 Nomar, and to paraphrase Bullwinkle, he's an antihistamine player (not to be sneezed at.) That Nomar played in 156 games both years, hitting 310/352/528 in '02 and 301/345/524 in '03 (and that was with the slump from HELL in '03. Nomar hit .170 that Sept. The fact that he hit .398 that June made up for it.)
Unless the wrist has healed in the interim. (Maybe, maybe?)
"Has he ever had a whole season without injury? Was he inury-free (or mostly) when he won the batting titles?" 1997 - 153 games, 1998 - 143, 1999 - 135, 2000 - 140, 2002 - 156, 2003 - 156. All at shortstop, mind you. (Then the trouble began. Stupid achilles tendon.) He actually missed more games in the batting title years than in the other years.
So he has done it. The question is, is he able to do it again? I don't know. I'm hoping that the run of bad luck is over, and that his body has decided to stop falling apart. I suppose we'll see. When he's healthy, Nomar's never had a year that he's hit below 300 or OBPed less than 340. When he's healthy.
Do this for half the season, or until a spot opens up for Kuo. Then he's ready, having prepared for each outing as a starter and pitching every 5th day, to pick up anyone else's slack. This way, you keep Kuo's innings down to a more reasonable number. The only thing keeping Billz and Kuo back is their ability to throw deep into games (because they use a lot of pitches), they're ERA projections have generally been around 4.00. Combining the two would give the Dodgers an assett every 5 days, rather than forcing the team into the bullpen regularly.
I'm sure this won't happen, but I think its worth trying. I hope Colletti and Co. have taken note of how the Twins handled Santana early in his career, because Kuo isn't not all that disimilar.
Nomar really isn't that different than Drew, when healthy they belong in the middle of the lineup. The difference is that Drew generally doesn't play hurt, which is probably smart.
Could this be his ride?
http://tinyurl.com/y7n9yr
i don't like the idea of kuo in AAA. if he's starting, he should be starting in MLB. innings are innings no matter what level they're at. if we want to limit his workload, put him in the pen for a while. perhaps it would be advisable to switch billz and kuo in and out of the pen from time to time so neither collects too many innings. 150 from each would be great. i like the idea of dividing up some of their starts into 4-5 innings each. it's good outside-the-box thinking. i remember reading that kuo was a lot more comfortable when he was allowed time to warm up and study his opponents as a starter.
RIP. . . or not.
In 2006 what Broadway play based on a 1911 work became the longest running show?
I guess CBS lied to me. I generally prefer their "Gamecenter"esque thing over ESPN's, but not when they lie...
It is indeed "Phantom of the Opera"
Thanks, Ken.
I would just love to have a dependable young catcher in the minors without depending on Mike Lieberthal's balky knees to protect us. Also, how will/would Grady handle such a situation if a slump lasted til June?
http://tinyurl.com/uvzun
Stan from Tacoma
Stan from Tacoma
And that's not a joke.
107. I heard Benito wants to make one too. How sad is the catching situation that these two honestly believe they can make one. Ugh!
vr, Xei
Grady Little utilized JD Drew perfectly last year, it may have been nice if Drew could have hit for a bit more power, but you want to take the same approach with Nomar, play him 100 games at 1st, make him the DH in about 15 games, another 20-30 at 3rd and his remaing 10 games as a pinch hitter-remaing 20 or so resting, allowing Loney to start a minimum of 50-60 at first, hoping Loney then gets at least another 60 in the outfield-with Gonzales and Either that doesn't seem implausable-any games he gets into as a result of injuries is more of plus, but he certainly gets a far better look.
I think by the end of the season when we look at 1st base numbers will see 30 homers, 130 RBI, OPS 950.
Having a positive (albeit, less informed, maybe wrong) outlook on players that have already been signed is a bad thing? Too bad.
I'm not a sipper of the Pierre/Gonz Kool-Aid, but they happened, might as well get used to the idea (however temporary we we'd like it) already....they now wear Dodger Blue after all.
Just got back from the Clip game, Artest looked terrible and Maggette was excellent. Do we really want to trade 3 years of Maggette for 4 months of a player that we have no idea will sign off on Dunleavy's system? No question that Artest is a better player but only if we know were getting an Artest committed to playing for us and right now he looks bored with basketball.
Most teams don't have much depth behind their starting catcher. Lieberthal is a fine backup...I can't think of any other team, at least in our division, that has a backup catcher the quality of Lieberthal.
I'm not saying he's a stud or anything, but for someone who's going to just be a backup he's pretty darn good.
107 - I'd assume it's deals like this that have the old-timers itching for a comeback:
http://tinyurl.com/yk9ayr
Anyway.
I concur...
Said it was a no-brainer to pencil in the best catcher in baseball on every lineup card.
Martin is young and a stud. Who knows if he can reach the Bench level?
But I hope Grady saw what Anderson said and accordingly will force himself to give Martin just a bit more time off than he's inclined to. Maybe not have him start quite as many games, or somesuch, with the obvious condition that whoever's in for Martin has to be up to speed.
Speaking of whoever's in for Martin other than Lieberthal...after Diaz and Bellorin left, what's the status of Eric Langill? Hopeless? Gone? Or?
One more catching item: during a World Series broadcast, someone called Pudge Rodriguez probably the best catcher in history. Another announcer shot back, "what about Bench?" IIRC, the response (McCarver, I think) was, "oh, if you ask Bench I think that's what he'd tell you, too."
I think it's generally accepted that Piazza is the best offensive catcher ever. But I also thought it generally accepted that Bench was best ever overall. Opinions?
Ben Stiller + Diaz + Chris Elliott + Brett Favre = most annoying movie ever made.
Do we still have Brad Cresse? Everything is fine, as long as we have Brad Cresse. And so long as Milton Bradley is black. He still is, right?
I do... and the answer is Hell, no. Look up Bench's stats. He was driving in 148 runs in the majors at an age when Martin was in AA ball. I think Martin will be a stud, but probably the best we can hope for is a stud more on the order of Bill Freehan or Ted Simmons or somebody.
I do think Grady's biggest failing as a manager last year was not giving Martin enough days off. Hopefully Lieberthal is good enough that he will make that an easier thing for Grady to do.
Martin's chances of a long catching career are enhanced, I think, because he came to catching at a very late age. It seems there are only a certain number of games one pair of knees can be expected to catch. Fortunately for Martin, more of those games will come at the major league level instead of high school, college, and the low minors.
Revenge of the Nerds irrelevantized all subsequent sex romps.
Yogi Berra needs to always be in the conversation when best offensive catcher is discussed. His goofiness and goofy looks has overshadowed what an incredible player he was.
Back to the backup backup catcher discussion. Do you really think we should be counting on Martin to have a serious injury and then for Lieberthal to also have a serious injury by stocking our AAA with a free agent in December. What free agent catcher worth anything would sign with us as a 3rd string catcher? They are trying to catch on with someone as a backup catcher not a AAA option. Mathis is still a potential starting catcher, do you really want to trade a front line prospect for someone to toil in AAA in case our top two catchers get hurt. What team has a solid 3rd string catcher option? Most teams can't even put out a solid starting catcher much less a back up the quality of Lieberthal. I find myself befuddled with this worry. When Spring Training ends the old catchers or failed prospects who didn't make it as someone's backup will sign with us to toil in AAA. It is not something you do in December or even worry about. JMO
The Giants used Greene last year, but instead will go with the dynamic duo of Bengie Molina and Eliezer Alfonzo.
Tom Green was ruined by Drew Barrymore, who, when the revolution comes, will be hanged for it. DJ Qualls was in the hard out there for a pimp movie that I didn't see, so I guess he's doing alright.
Drew Barrymore should be hanged for:
1. Being a crappy actress
2. Playing the same character in every movie
3a. Not being able to keep a straight face
3b. That stupid little smile she has in every scene that says "I can't believe they're paying me to do this"
http://members.tripod.com/bb_catchers/catchers/thieves_smith.htm
...and tell me that Roy Campanella was not, at his peak, the greatest all-around catcher who ever lived. Scroll down to the lists at the bottom of the page.
I wouldn't defy you but Bill James has it
Yogi
Bench
Campy
according to the latest Baseball Abstract with Piazza being the greatest offensive catcher. Of course you were talking peak but it wasn't like Yogi and Bench didn't have some incredible peaks of their own.
You just have to help me understtnd how including Yogi Berra in a conversation would help clarify anything--or were you saying something else?
Campy to Newcomb: "Your are not only wrong, you are loud wrong."
http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/billich01.shtml
Caminiti is an open and shut case.
Your coat would be red too if---never mind.
162- I'm not entirely convinced the man is literate. But, whatever. I'd gladly see his finger, and raise him whatever rosy, Irish anatomical feature of mine I had handy.
No two Division I teams have played each other so often.
You probably didn't watch it as a kid. I think I would probably dislike it now, but I loved it as a 9 year old when it came out.
Wow. Gross.
Meet post 174.
I don't know. Everybody loves ET, so I must just be missing something. But I don't see coming around on it.
http://tinyurl.com/yeenvh
I don't have a crystal ball, but I did read in one of the 51's game guides that featured him on the cover and contained an article that pretty much said he was kept around in the organization for his attitude rather than his athletic ability.
Mostly he would catch warm up tosses between innings. You can tell he is an upbeat guy witth a lot of enthusiasm even from the stands.
Is there any other kind...?
http://tinyurl.com/ycaw2b
This post is strictly for those who, like me, enjoy the mathematical/statistical analysis of baseball. I have been doing some mathematical investigation trying to come up with a better predictor of offensive production than OPS. While OPS is actually surprisingly accurate, it has some practical and theoretical flaws. It is most accurate when OBP and SLG do not have significant disparity (i.e., when OBP is high and SLG is high, or OBP is low and SLG is low). This does tend to be the case in general for two reasons. In the first place, SLG includes batting average, which is also a component of OBP. Secondly, power hitters tend to walk a lot and also tend to hit for higher average. However, in cases where OBP and SLG have significant disparity, OPS can be a poor predictor of offensive production. For example, the 2005 Cubs had the 4th highest OPS in the National League (.764), yet were 9th in runs per game (4.34). This is explained, I think, by the fact that while they were 2nd in the league in SLG (.440), they were 11th in OBP (.324). One of the things suggested by an example like this is that OPS does not give OBP sufficient weight. The fact that OPS works so well in general is partly a matter of sheer luck.
OPS also has some theoretical flaws. In the first place, there is no rationale for adding OBP and SLG as opposed to, for instance, multiplying them together. In fact, the latter makes more sense, since it can be understood as a proportion (i.e., "offensive production is jointly proportional to OBP and SLG"). But since OBP and SLG have different units, from a purely mathematical point of view they do not admit of the operation of addition (which is why OPS has no unitswhile OBP has units of "times reached base safely per plate appearance" and SLG has units of "total bases (minus walks, etc.) per at-bat," OPS has no units). Moreover, the relationship between offensive production (runs scored) and OPS is not linear. OPS tends to underestimate runs scored for high OPS teams and overestimate runs scored for low OPS teams. This can be seen if we simply look at the ratios between the highest and lowest teams in runs per game and OPS respectively. In 2006, Philadelphia had the highest OPS in the NL at .794, and Pittsburg the lowest at .723. That's a ratio of 1.1:1. But in runs per game the ratio was 1.39:1. My surmise is that the non-linearity is due to the fact that as OBP goes up, hits/walks tend to get bunched together more and are therefore used more efficiently. Indeed, as OBP approaches 1.0, in which case hits/walks are totally bunched, runs scored approaches infinity, so just that in itself tells us that the relationship between OPS and offensive production is not linear.
I have come up with an alternate formula which turns out to be a better predictor of offensive production than OPS, especially for those cases in which there is significant disparity between OBP and SLG. For example, for the 2005 Cubs my formula predicts that they would be 9th in runs per game, which they were, while OPS predicts they would be 4th. However, I haven't just looked at isolated examples, but calculated the statistical standard deviation for the National League in 2005.
My formula makes the following theoretical assumptions:
1. Isolated Power, or extra-bases per plate appearance, should be used to measure power rather than SLG. That way we don't count singles in power production. Moreover, while IsoP is conventionally calculated by subtracting batting average from SLG, this leaves out plate appearances when the batter walked, etc. There is no reason to leave out those PA, and doing so artificially inflates IsoP. So I calculate IsoP as extra-bases (doubles + 2 times triples + 3 times HRs) per plate appearance.
2. IsoP has a multiplying effect on OBP. In other words, a team would score a certain number of runs based on its OBP alone, if it got no extra-base hits. IsoP causes that OBP to be used more efficiently. Thus we need a factor, in the form of (1 + k), by which to multiply OBP, where k is a function of IsoP.
Through some trial and error, I have come up with k = 2 times IsoP. This yields OBP [1 + 2(IsoP)]. The final thing we need is a correction for the bunching effect mentioned above. I accomplish this by simply squaring the expression--that is, the whole quantity OBP [1 + 2(IsoP)] squared.
The formula can be checked against team rankings, but a better measure is runs per game. If we multiply the whole expression by 25, we get a prediction for runs per game. Using the 2005 season again, for instance, Cincinnati led the league in runs per game. They had an OBP of .339 and an IsoP of .164. Using my formula, that yields a predicted runs per game of 5.06, compared to their actual 5.03. Obviously my formula doesn't come so close in every case, but it does in many, and it's never really far off. I'm calling my new statistic "OPI" for "Offensive Productivity Index." I have calculated a standard deviation of 3.3% for the NL in 2005 using my OPI, compared to 4.5% for OPS squared, and 5.24% for OPS. That may seem like a small difference, but it is significant because the differential between the highest and lowest scoring teams is only about one run per game. My formula has an average error of .147 runs per game, OPS has an average error of .235 runs per game, and OPS-squared has an average error of .202 runs per game.
Ok if the dodger players were to repeat their offensive stats from last year, what would be the expected offensive output in runs per game?
I don't know if I'd beat up the piccolist at your funeral, but I suppose there's a good chance I'll outlive you, what with your smoking, Walmart, McDonalds, etc.
193
No worries: we won't be depressed at your funeral...
And I hope that you die
And your death'll come soon
I will follow your casket
In the pale afternoon
And I'll watch while you're lowered
Down to your deathbed
And I'll stand o'er your grave
'Til I'm sure that you're dead
My household will be watching "Gandhi" tonight.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Broomfield
As for Spielberg, he gets a lifetime pass becasue of Jaws. One of the best movies ever thanks to Robert Shaw. ET, I loved it as a kid but it was not as good as I remembered when I watched it with my kids.
With The Great Race on some channel I've never heard of called Drive, but that I'm watching now because The Great Race is on? COME ON! [GOB VOICE]
Nobody has a comment on this one?
OK. I'll bite. This is the only sentence I understand. I have no doubt it is true, because OBP is sui generis.
You fancy law-yers with your fancy TV channels and your fancy $3000 suits...
In the future, all of our prospects will be traded for fifteen minutes worth of Julio Lugo. But oh the draft picks they'll bring!
It's not really news that OPS isn't perfect, or even the best possible statistic. OPS is popular because it's better than BA, much better than RBIs, but still very easy to compute.
[196] the broken internet tubes due to the taiwan earthquake have brought my internet connection down to slower-than-modem speeds.
Sounds like E. Langill would be best as backup to the backup catcher several times removed.
Or something. Whoever picked the speakers should be fired. The Dark Lord brought his A game, but Stevens and Hastert both sounded like they were reading theirs for the first time. And Stevens, at some points, seemed to be delivering a simultaneous rebuttal to his own speech.
Spielberg would have had him touring the city on an air bike.
with Al Haig
Elbert, Billingsley, Kuo, Meloan, Miller, Alexander--Loney, Ethier, LaRoche, Kemp, Abreu, could wind up playing in Vegas through April and maybe May.
You're a tragic figure, Andy...
http://www.scavengeinc.com/tim-burton-tragic-toys-figure-set-toxic-boy-p-4427.html?osCsid=164e95b0b109968848e762ba49eb4809
Last year the average RS/G was 5.061.
That's no way to talk about Al Haig
AKA "formula of some young guy"
But they didn't.
I still remember hearing Alexander Butterfield talk about the existence of a taping system at the White House. My whole family was excited about that.
Watergate conspirators I have met in my life:
John Dean
Watergate conspirators who led the fundraising for a large building at UCLA:
H.R. Haldeman.
Number of times I visited the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Museum in Grand Rapids: 2
Items bought at the gift shop there: Hard to count.
I was just wanted somewhat of a barometer of what kind of an offense the dodgers will have. Of course, I realize there are a lot of variables like improvement and decline, the playing time of a lot of players at a lot of positions, and so on.
But if that's what our offense will be, we're gonna need that great pitching staff.
I'm never getting a Capital One card after this.
I've taken notice that I'm on notice. That's a big group to put on notice.
The bowl season hasn't been a disaster for me as I'm likely going to beat my friend in our competition to pick the winners of all the games.
The key game will be the Sugar Bowl. If LSU wins, I will likely wrap up the championship.
vr, Xei
But the place has comfortable seats, good sight lines, and doesn't seem too big. The view of Downtown was closed off presumably because it was sunny and that would have made a glare on the court.
There was a big cheer when the football team came in to watch during the second half. Right at that moment, USC took its largest lead at 38-27. Then Washington State clamped down on defense and pulled it out 58-55.
UCLA-Wow
Navy-Ugh
Mizzou (sister went to J-school there)-Collapse
Iowa (Grandparents)-Collapse
Wisconsin, which several of my family members went to, will no doubt lose to Arkansas. Southern Cal beats Michigan, Ohio State wins the national championship, and I officially give up.
Oh, and Karl Dorrell just kicked another field goal while I typed this (weeps).
Some of us lesser evolved humans still enjoy watching the bowls. And the long breaks between the games and the bowls has been going since 1901. Stanford hadn't played a game since November 9, 1901 when they faced Michigan in the first Rose Bowl on New Year's Day 1902. The Wolverines had last played on November 28.
Except for the Emerald Bowl, I haven't had any other close emotional ties to the bowl games and have just enjoyed the ones I've been able to see.
It would be nice for Larry Coker to go out a loser in Boise, but I'm thinking that Miami will pull that one out.
Of course, if LSU loses to ... those people ... in the Sugar Bowl, I will turn Brockian.
They ain't winnin' this one either.
Oh yes, I'll book it. LSU is better than Southern Cal, and nearly as good as Michigan. I wouldn't be surprised if the Fighting Irish are defeated by 17 points or more. They don't have a chance. Plus, I'm rooting for them, so they're doomed.
Book it.
I need to get a James Brown Funeral Tour 2006 T-shirt.
We can hand out commemorative pens, like they did at Oslo. Hopefully, our accord will result in fewer suicide bombings. I'm sure it will.
1) A cortege that includes a horse. And a wombat.
2) The CCR tune "Wrote a Song for Everyone" to be played.
3) Everyone to go around for a week feeling miserable because "Bob would have wanted it that way."
4) A gravestone with the epitaph, "And you that I was faking it."
251
Look for me, I'll be wearing a blue shirt!
Look for me, Bob. I'll be wearing the powder blue UCLA Hawaiian shirt with the Greg Brock sticker. I'll keep an eye out for Team Tablecloth Jerseys.
What? I just like lederhosen.
Over time, however, things began to change. He hated the Domers, I did not. Often times he would justify rooting for the Trojans. I could never imagine such a scenario. He accepted UCLA's football mediocrity, which I did not.
Then, one day, things fell apart. He decided to consort with Tommy Craggs and Gregg Easterbrook. I never wanted to have mortal enemies, and sure enough, in my 29 years of living, I never had one.
I can't put you on notice, because you're so hilarious. And I can't wish ill upon you, because you are a Bruin. There has to be some pox upon your house, and although I don't know what it is, I wish it upon you.
An open state of warfare does not exist between us, but my disappointment knows no bounds.
Remember as my father, Vito Corleone, once told me. Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.
http://www.scavengeinc.com/tim-burton-tragic-toys-figure-set-toxic-boy-p-4427.html?osCsid=164e95b0b109968848e762ba49eb4809
becomes===
http://tinyurl.com/tmrxm
122 characters down to 24; much more pasteable
Kuo--
http://www.rotoauthority.com/2006/12/what_to_expect_.html
Betemit--
http://www.rotoauthority.com/2006/12/possible_sleepe.html
And Randy Johnson--
http://www.rotoauthority.com/2006/12/randy_johnson_p.html
A little less than three months ago, the San Francisco Giants were just about a blank page. Their franchise depth chart screamed, "Rebuild!"
Yet here they are at the New Year, positioned to chase a pennant in the balanced National League behind Barry Zito, Barry Bonds and Bruce Bochy.
[What position does Bochy play?]
[T]he maneuvering of general manager Brian Sabean and the spending of owner Peter Magowan give the Giants a fighting chance to get to the World Series [!!!] with Bonds...
[Uh, maybe reaching, just a little.]
Yes, it's rather optimistic to give a 28-year-old lefty with diminishing stuff $18 million a year for seven years.
[You think?]
The question isn't whether the Giants will rue making that commitment to Zito, but how quickly will it become apparent that Scott Boras did it again?
[See Ned Colletti.]
http://tinyurl.com/yagrpl
FWIW--always a question where "experts" are concerned--many knowledgeable folks in these parts think LSU has the most talent of any SEC team, Florida included.
That should be sufficient. Or not. They don't keep score on most talent, or LSU would be facing Ohio State, not playing in the Sugar Bowl with two losses--one of which was to Florida, granted.
Most years, you'll come out pretty well on bowls picking pretty much every SEC team.
BTW, Alabama still can't find anyone willing to be football coach. Amazing testimony to what a reputation for ridiculous expectations can do. You'd think there'd be a long line of applicants for what should be one of the premier college jobs.
But...
Here are examples of the kind of expectations many Tide fans have:
http://www.lilligren.com/Redneck/redneck_stop_sign.htm
http://www.lilligren.com/Redneck/redneck_roadsign.htm
This year, don't care a whit about playoffs - just wanna see real progress, even thru struggling times. Hope mangmnt gives them time to do so...good times, good chances, good choices in the brand new year, everyone!
Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.