Happy Holiday to all DT posters and lurkers. May all of you have a David Eckstein MVP WS year with lots of hustle, heart, and some skill mixed in with serious luck.

The Dodger lineup would depress me if I didn't have the Cardinal lineup to look at in comparison and realize were only a Pujols, Rolen, and Edmunds away from being a solid offensive ballclub:)

(Looks at lineup and thinks to self)

"Where's the beef?"

2 On the bench with Olmedo Saenz getting ready to eat it.

3
With Tomato sauce (i.e "ketchup") no doubt...

4 The only question is whether that would border on cannibalism what with one tomato eating another. I vote yes, so he probably would use some mayonaise or something.

Ketchup isn't a sauce per se.

Which defining "sauce" features does Ketchup lack...?

Ok, critical as in thorough.

Critical as in negative.

What's the third way?

8. Essential?

What's the third way?

Necessary or very important.

Hmmmm . . .

I had:

Critical as in very important.

Critical as in discerning, exercising judgment.

and Critical as in negative.

If Kemp was in there instead of Pierre, I'd be fine with that lineup, considering the pitching.
The bright side is the upgrade in pitching, and I'd rather upgrade pitching while downgrading the offense than vice versa, but It'd be nice to upgrade both.
It seems like every year I'm dissappionted with centerfield, recent examples are Roberts, Lofton, Pierre.
The big upgrades are Schmidt and Billingsley over Perez/Seo/Tomko.
It'd be nice to land Zito instead of Wolf.
Once again I'm wondering where the promising prospects fit in.
Will Loney, Laroche and Kemp be the first to start if there are injuries?
Will Kuo be the first to start if there are injuries to the starting pitching?
Will Grady pull Pierre when he stinks it up and replace him with Kemp?, or will we have to live thru another Roberts and Lofton debocle.
Again, management will determine how far the dodgers go this season.

(Looks at Olmedo and thinks to self)

"I can't believe I ate the whole thing!"

8 Thorough?

Will Grady pull Pierre when he stinks it up and replace him with Kemp?

I've been wondering about that too. I'm leaning toward thinking that a 5-year contract pretty much guarantees a permanent starting job. Plus, it's unlikely that Pierre will underperform with respect to the stats that inspired Ned to acquire him in the first place. Since he doesn't get hurt, he'll get plenty of ABs, and thus plenty of hits and stolen bases. And, there's every reason to think he'll hit at least .270 or so.

Will it matter that he doesn't get on base very often or that he gets caught stealing a lot? Probably not. It clearly won't matter to Ned. Whether it matters to Grittle is a different question, but I think Grittle will feel obligated to keep PJ in the lineup.

15 I think that Pierre will end up playing all the time, that was one his benefits remember? Plus his worst ever average for a season is .276, with his ISOp that is not good, but I doubt the majority of average take the family out to the game baseball fans will see him as sucking out there.

I just don't see a scenario where Pierre can be benched with him likely hitting .300ish, and being without a doubt the best defensive centerfielder we have. If we could only teach him to take a walk every once in a while, he actually would not be that bad of a player assuming his speed holds up. He is one of the best baserunners year in and year out, despite the caught stealings.

If we could only teach him to take a walk every once in a while

Lord knows I'm not here to defend him, but I'm not certain that drawing walks is necessarily something he can control. When a player has absolutely no power, I would guess that pitchers are much less likely to nibble or pitch around such a player. Rather, they're more likely to throw strikes. It's axiomatic that you can't draw a walk if you are thrown only strikes.

I don't know whether this is true or not, but PJ's lack of BBs may reflect his lack of power more than his lack of patience or discipline.

Can't we have like a Holiday Moratorium on depressing topics like Juan Pierre?

18 Absolutely critical, that last comment.

18
Should we switch over to baseball-related double-entendre innuendos...?

Not only with PJ stay in the lineup, but he will also likely stay in the leadoff spot.

Merry Christmas!

I'm going to have a wild Wal-Mart Shopping Spree tonight. Thousands of dollars. And leave my car running in the parking lot.

17
How would you explain Brett Butler?

And leave my car running in the parking lot

car = Hummer, no doubt

Everybody knows Steve drives a Hyundai. And that he's sensitive about it.

How would you explain Brett Butler?

Pitcher pitched around him because they didn't want him bunting...?

Thanks for playing the critical game, everybody!

It's a good review, and thorough.

28 Nice

17 I disagree, there are clearly players with no power who get many more walks than Pierre does.

The following players are 14 of the 20 qualifying players who qualified for the batting title last year but had a lower slugging % than Pierre last year:

Luis Castillo .62 ISOp.

Jason Kendall .72 ISOp.

David Eckstein .72 ISOp.

Scott Posednik .69 ISOp.

Willy Taveres .55 ISOp

Mark Loretta .60 ISOp

Nick Punto .62 ISOp

Chone Figgins .59 ISOp

Felipe Lopez .84 ISOp

Adam Kennedy .59 ISOp

Jhonny Peralta .66 ISOp

Aaron Hill .58 ISOp

Mark Kotsay .57 ISOp

Marcus Giles .79 ISOp

Clearly some of the weakest slappiest hitters in baseball can work a walk, I don't see why pitchers would be more afraid to pitcher to these guys who all had a lower slugging % than Pierre last year than to Pierre.

Yet, the lowest of those 14 ISOp is .57, which if Pierre would have put up, would have brought Pierre's OBP at .361 last year. At that rate, Pierre actually becomes a pretty good player. Nothing you will say will convince me that Pierre couldn't ISOp at .50, which would make him a decent player.

23 I think D4P's comment is right on, but there are certainly exceptions to it, like Butler and most players named Eddie (Stanky, Yost, Joost, etc). In those cases, maybe it's just that the player has an otherworldly eye at the plate.

If I can interpret D4P's comment, I take what he's saying as an assertion that while Pierre may not have an amazing Butleresque eye at the plate, his lack of power might be disguising a relatively average batting eye -- rather than the disgustingly awful one we've been attributing to him.

30
Well, I certainly don't mind having my hypothesis shot down. I'm more than willing to believe that Pierre is terrible in pretty much all critical aspects of the game.

Nothing you will say will convince me that Pierre couldn't ISOp at .50, which would make him a decent player.

[gaahhhh]

No it wouldn't -- it would make him like all those other players, who are crappy.

33 Look, I will never call Pierre a good signing, but with his baserunning ability, and speed in the outfielder and ability to player center, Pierre would be a decent player. He wouldn't hurt you if he batted last. Especially since we have no prospects who are obviously centerfielders. I am trying to make the best of a bad situation.

How about critical as in "on life support?"

But that would describe the lineup more than Andrew's post.

Are there stats available for how often a player, say Pierre, swings at pitches outside the strikezone?

30 Actually while looking of the 20 players who qualified for the batting title, yet had a lower slugging percentage than Pierre, only two had a lower ISOp, Angel Berroa and Ronny Cedeno who would have to be about the two worst starters in major league baseball.

36 If there were, it would probably come from Gameday and therefore be useless, since we already know Gameday's pitch locations are nonsense.

36 THT has a nice column on this subject:
http://tinyurl.com/yz7gqx

Outside Swing Percentage (OSwing) - The percentage of pitches outside the strike zone a batter swings at.

You see walk-o-phobes like Pudge and Francoeur swinging at 1 in 3 pitches outside the zone and OBP studs like Giambi and B Giles only 1 in 10. But would you believe Dave Roberts is the 2nd best in MLB at holding up on pitches out of the zone? But to the point brought up here, this stat needs to be viewed in the context of the ratio of pitches inside and out of the zone. Maybe Roberts only saw 100 pitches outside the strike zone to Giambi's 1,000. I don't see a link to the full data set.

37--

The Cubs had Neifi Perez, Cesar Izturis, Juan Pierre, and Ronny Cedeno all on their team last year.

Lets just be thankfull the Dodgers havent gotten to that point yet.

Somewhere, Bill Plaschke lets out a knowing grunt. http://tinyurl.com/to3sg

34 but with his baserunning ability, and speed in the outfielder and ability to player center, Pierre would be a decent player.

I seem to remember a study on BP (I think) a couple years ago that panned Pierre's baserunning. One point was that his SB% is not great (we've been over this part - it seems to be slightly better than "good enough to bother" but not really a huge benefit). The other point was that for all his speed, he gets thrown out or fails to take extra bases much more often than you'd expect. I wish I could find a link. The summary seemed to be that he's a pretty poor baserunner, given how fast he is.

Do we know better now? Have more recent studies shown that he actually is a good (which is to say, smart) baserunner?

As for his defense, well, speed is all he seems to have. You can't count it twice. IF he's an average to slightly-above average defenseive CFer, that's already accounting for his speed.

Unless he manages to get his OBP up to the .380-.390 range, given that he has zero power, he's going to be a drag on the offense.

41
Plaschke still holds a grudge against Sasha Cohen because he thought she was really Borat.

Adding Sosa to this lineup should cure all our offensive shortcomings:)

With slamming Sammy we could put out the worse defensive Dodger outfield since the days the Bull Ferrara and Len Gabrielson were allowed to roam in DS unless Billy Ashly and Roger Cedeno ever played together.

42
Bill James 2007 handbook has him as a top 20 baserunner. BP just printed an article yesterday reviewing his methodology and while they disagree on some aspects they come very close when agreeing on who the top baserunners are.

I enjoyed Andrew's summary over at TrueBlueLA too (but I comment here because I'm frankly maxed-out in terms of website signups). The one overly optimistic (yes, optimistic) assertion that he makes seems to be that the expected bench guys won't start - that all injuries will be covered by the Loneys, Kemps, and LaRoches of the system.

Seems to me that this is right if a guy goes on the DL for any length of time - that one of the kids will step in and keep the scrubs on the bench. But with Nomar and Kent and some of the other old guys, I foresee a lot of 2-3 game scratches, and hence a bunch of starts for those bench guys. And I don't like the picture.

What Andrew is saying is what he thinks OUGHT TO happen, and I agree with him. But Colletti has shown that he values different things that he OUGHT TO, so I'm not as optimistic as Andrew.

Let's just hope that some of the least-deserving starters, if they get hurt, get hurt for long enough stretches that the kids can step in and Pip them.

In this context, the problem with baserunning ability is that it requires basegettingon ability.

Alas I now work in an office and can't just pull out my baseball reference books during the day. Very disconcerting.

44
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B06230LAN1995.htm

Ooh, that's some outfield!

48 Burn them onto DVDs and take them to work with you!

Delino went 2-3 and Offerman went 3-4 in that game. What an unstoppable top of the lineup.

49
The infield is not unnoteworthy as well...

45. Thanks, Toy. That's at least comforting. Not enough to justify the roster spot, but at least it means it could be worse.

Upon further review of the literature, I retract my statement that ketchup is not a sauce.

Thank you.

54
You're welcome.

That lineup is to baseball as gigantic bunny pajamas are to Christmas presents.

{seasonal post}

Aunt Clara :: Gigantic Bunny Pajamas
Ned Colletti :: Juan Pierre

Ned Colletti! What a rotten name! There he stood, between us and the alley. Ned Colletti staring out at us with his yellow eyes. He had yellow eyes! So, help me, God! Yellow eyes!

56. C'mon now, Mr. Brock. Gigantic bunny PJs (pun intended) have their place. Just not on adult males.

Man, I hope get that zeppelin for Christmas.

Ned needs a Toadie...

It should be IsoD, not IsoP. IsoP is often used iunterchangebly with ISO to stand for Isolated Power.

That said, a .050 IsoD from Pierre would not make him good. I would not even make him o.k. People with his skillset have only one real function in an everyday lineup - hitting 8th. This, in turn, should only be done as a conciet to outstanding defense, where you accept the reduced offense for good deense and you appropriately limit the effect of that weak offense by giving the player as few plate opportunities as possible. The problem being, of course, that PJ has no arm, so he is not a good defensive CF.

Further, .050 IsoD is, itself, crap. The fact that it is viewed as what PJ could reach (a reasonable projection given his lifetime .047 and that he has hit .050 (once - 2005) in the last several years) is telling enough. League average for the last 3 years is just over .073 (all-time I think it is just over .075).

Even you you assume Peirre is going to have a career year in BA, IsoP and IsoD, you still end up with a .326/.379/.408 year, for a .787 OPS. That would be outstanding, essentially beond belief, and it would put him squarely in the middle of all qualifying CFs from 2006 .

There is simply no good way to spin the PJ acquistion. Just sit back and hope is is off the team long before his contract expires.

Yankees sign some Cuban named Juan Miranda to a 4-year contract:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16328132/from/RS.3/

I just had an email exchange with Dan Fox, who wrote the BP article that ToyCannon referenced. I asked about Pierre. He reports that JP ranks 15th in his system. So that, at least, is not bad news.

63
But does he have the right to remain silent?

Giant Squid.

http://tinyurl.com/y4gzm7

If you need more incentive than that to click a link, I don't understand you at all.

I don't understand you at all

Maybe this will help:

http://tinyurl.com/ydkfc7

Yeah, that squid is impressive. But I've seen smaller squid, with more heart and grit, absolutely tear up the Pacific Rim. The Ecksquid pwns the Giant Squid.

D4P links to Walmart--another Festivus Miracle!

D4P links to Walmart

I learned it from watching you, OK? I learned it from watching you...

Bruce Schneier had that squid stuff and one of the places he linked from was the english language Pravda. It wasn't really what I expected.

Both the ex-Miss Nevada and Paris Hilton had headlines of their own at Pravda.

Dirty ones.

Let me start by saying I think Pierre is a good player. That's right, call me crazy. I just can't buy in to this whole OPS OBP thing. I know, crazy again right? Well. maybe or maybe not. I think he's a huge improvement over an old CF that misplayed balls all year and is just one run to 1st from tearing a hamstring.

The real problem, as I see it in my non-OPS world is power. Although we have good RBI guys (I realize RBIs may not matter in the new stat world), we need to upgrade in power. I just keep thinking to myself, why not let Kemp and Laroche play? I don't know if they're ready or not, but they are both real close. I could see both of them easily reaching 20 HR 80 RBI next season. Is this not better than what we are getting with Gonzalez and Betemit? Is Kemp, even with his shortcomings, not a better fielder or at least have the potential to be a better fielder than Gonzalez? I guess I just don't see why so many on here bash Pierre, even giving him several new nicknames (which I did enjoy) when we have other players who are clearly worse. Is it just the money? Everyone is overpaid.

Let me start by saying I think Pierre is a good player

Indiana Jon and the Last Crusade

we have other players who are clearly worse

Perhaps, but none of them are our starting center fielder at 9mil per for the next 5 years. I will readily concede that Juan Pierre is better than Ramon Martinez.

72. False consciousness, Indiana. You believe in OBP and OPS - you really do.

Your conclusions are correct (or, I suppose I should say "seem correct"). But OBP and OPS (which is just OBP + power) are not things to believe in or not believe in. They are measures of offensive performance that have been shown to correlate better with run scoring than the traditional stats. Those are facts, not theories.

Your point on defense is well-taken, but damns Pierre with faint praise. Being better than the ancient Lofton (who is my age) is not saying much at all. Any warm body would be a huge improvement over Lofton, and many would be big improvements over Pierre too, given JP's terrible terrible arm.

The reason we focus on OBP for Pierre is because it's the only offensive contribution he can conceivably provide. No power, so his only possible value is in getting on base and then around the bases. He's evidently a good baserunner, so the 2nd part is covered. Unfortunately, if the 1st part is poor, the 2nd becomes irrelevant. And OBP is an unassailable measure of the 1st part.

75

OK, you convinced me! I do love OBP and OPS, but now I hate Furcal! He has a career OBP exactly the same as Pierre, and he has been lower than Pierre in four out of seven seasons. Even though Pierre has NO power, he also has two years out of those seven where he OPSed higher than Furcal. Wow, and look at how much we pay Furcal to be a worse defensive shortstop than what he replaced! I hate him, let's give him some nicknames.

76 You have to factor in trends. Look at the last three seasons. One player's performance is leaps and bounds better than the other.

I'll let you figure out which is which.

Furcal's OPS+ (at shortstop)109, 96, 100, 107
Pierre's OPS+ (outfielder)98, 107, 81 (ouch), 81 (double ouch)

77

I guess it depends on your definition of leaps and bounds. It also depends on the team. Furcal has played on much better teams the last two years. May not matter to some, but to me that alone makes a huge difference, unless you're Alex Rodriguez.

78 Actually, Pierre's 2005 OPS+ was 84, so that's much better than 81. My apologies, Juan.

I almost asked in the last post when trying to make my point on the better team whether it would be better to have Lofton or Ryan Theriot hitting behind you, but I answered my own question. Theriot OPSed .934 last year. Give HIM 9 million!

I'm just looking at what he does inside the batter's box. I'm not really sure how his team's overall performance affects his successmanship at drawing walks, having any power, stealing bases at a marginal 74% clip, etc.

81 Sample size. The DT Mantra (one of them, anyway).

It has nothing to do with his power. Read prior posts about the walks, I agree they throw you alot of strikes when you have little power and Theriot behind you. Furcal's SB% last year looks like.....ummm, 74%. So I see the difference as power. Do we really need the extra 10 home runs a year from the leadoff spot? Oh, and since we compared SS to CF. Let's just compare leadoff hitter to 3rd hitter. I think if that is thrown in, Furcal overwhelmingly becomes the worse value.

I think the Pierre of 2003 and 2004 would be worth $10m in 2006 (durability matters, especially to the Dodgers). But when Pierre's OBP is around .330, he's just a bench player. Its actually pretty interesting for Pierre the dividing line between helpful and not helpful is depedent on, like, 20-30 points of OBP. Which, for Pierre, is really batting average. Someone needs to make a sacrifice to the God of Balls-in-Play (Voros McCraken?) next year.

83
I agree, just humoring myself.

85
I agree. What I'm trying to say here is I think we'll get that extra 30 points. He's Furcal in the outfield and to me, Furcal and Nomar were our MVPs last season.

Batting order position is external to the player's value, no fair holding it against him; position isn't. Why would anyone turn up his nose at ten more home runs, for any reason?

88
I would never turn up my nose at 10 home runs. Unless it was a comparison of leadoff hitters and one was paid 4 million more than the other.

76 -- How about Fur-kel?

Three other thoughts on Pierre:

- Did anyone know that his middle name is D'Vaughn? Juan D'Vaughn Pierre - at least one of the cooler names ever by a Dodger.

- The Pierre showed up in the 2nd half last year for the Cubs: .311/.340/.418. Something close to that next year, and we'll be okay.

- Isn't Wrigley, with its notoriously thick infield grass, be the worst place for a guy like Pierre who hits the ball on the ground a lot? I can see how the Cubs might think the opposite, but these are the Cubs after all. This needs to be discussed at some point: Did Wrigley help or hurt Pierre?

Ryan Theriot played in 53 games. I don't know how much he could possibly affect Juan Pierre's last two years of performance.

If I accept your supposition that Pierre gets nothing but pitches to hit, it makes his performance ever more depressing. Nothing but main street pitches and an 81 OPS+? Gadzooks.

Most statheads says 75% SB means it's okay to run. OKAY to run. Others say unless you're at 80%, you should run. I'm in the latter camp, but I'll go along with 75% for the sake of argument. That means Juan Pierre stealing bases is acceptable. Not an asset. Acceptable.

Finally, I agree, if Furcal was a third baseman with those numbers, he would have bad value. But he is not. Pierre is a centerfielder, and an average offensive centerfielder at best. There are literally dozens of players that could put up similar or better numbers that don't cost 9 million dollars.

You like Pierre. That's fine. But lets not try to spin his performance as anything other than what it is. Average at best. But he is fast and exciting. He just doesn't produce very much outside empty batting average.

I look forward to what you have to say, but I think I'm done with the Great Pierre Christmas Debate of 2006. I want to make jokes!

88
Why is position not "external to the player's value"? Should we not hold it against Nomar at 1st base then? It's not his fault they moved him. Should I still compare him to SS instead of Pujols and Howard at 1st?

Calling Pierre Furcal in the outfield is a bad comparison for a number of reasons. For one, finding good offensive SS's is a lot harder than good offensive CF's. More importantly, Furcal is a better hitter. He draws more walks and hits for more power, with out much less speed than Pierre. Also, Furcal can hit, by that I mean he can do a lot of things with the bat, inlcuding making good consitent contact. Pierre makes consitent contact, but he doesn't make GOOD contact all that often, relying on a lot of INF hits, errors, and luck for his batting average to an extent that Furcal doesn't.

94
I'll give you OBP and OPS barely, but Furcal is not a better "hitter" than Furcal.

94
I'll give you OBP and OPS barely, but Furcal is not a better "hitter" than Pierre.

"Most statheads says 75% SB means it's okay to run. OKAY to run. Others say unless you're at 80%, you should run. I'm in the latter camp, but I'll go along with 75% for the sake of argument. That means Juan Pierre stealing bases is acceptable. Not an asset. Acceptable."

Isn't that just like saying .350 OBP in 50 PA is just as 'acceptable' as a .350 OBP in 500 PA. IE, volume matters. I'll take the guy with 70 SB's at an 'acceptable' rate than the guy with 20 SB's at the same rate. Moreover, I think Pierre does have an impact has just standing on first (which IS kinda rare). He draws more attention than pretty much anyone else. It may be difficult, or impossible, to measure but it does matter. Im just not sure if it's significant or not, my guess is that Colletti thinks it is.

Furcal is not a better "hitter" than Furcal.

http://tinyurl.com/y8vnen

96 might be translated by a sabr-logician as follows:

"I'll give you X, but not X."

96. Yes he is, and any scout will tell you that. The 15 homeruns Furcal hit last year (Pierre's career high is 3) will tell you that as well. Pierre is probably closer to an Izturis-type hitter than Furcal. Raffy isn't the slap-and-dash hitter most people think.

89- Why then? They're not worth quite as much as ten from a three or four hitter would be, on average, but they're still worth quite a bit. 10 HRs are a very good thing, wherever you find them. It's like having a coupons for ten free pizzas, from 8-11a.m. That's not my favorite pizza eating time, but, it's free pizza. I'm not going to throw the coupons out. Pizza is good.

93- Nomar's assumed positional versatility is relevant to his value. That's a fine tuning argument (maybe I'm lowballing it), but it's fine, as far as it goes.

97 I'll take the guy with 70 SB's at an 'acceptable' rate than the guy with 20 SB's at the same rate

No, that's wrong. Because the other part of the rate is the CSs. The guy with more SBs also has many more outs on the basepaths. The rate is the better stat.

The only reason one might prefer the guy with more SBs and more CSs (producing the same rate) is that it might imply more times on base, and hence higher OBP.

But if we look at 2 guys with identical OBP and identical PAs, and one was just more aggressive, and the other more cautious, there's no reason to prefer one over the other. Unless, that is, you want to start trying to quantify possibly mythical second-order effects such as "putting pressure on the defense," "rattling the pitcher," or, contrariwise, "distracting the batter."

"Nomar's assumed positional versatility is relevant to his value."

I don't think it is, at the end of the day, because the more positions Nomar plays the more likely he'll get hurt. His versatility is negated, to some extent, by the added posibility of injury at more difficult positions.

102. 'Acceptable rate' means an acceptable SB/SB+CS

There's a difference between 'acceptable' and 'break-even.' If Pierre is a break-even runner, then the volume doesn't matter. But, I would argue, that Pierre is more than a 'break-even' basestealer. Every marginal SB adds value, assuming that he's stealing them at a better than 'break-even' rate.

I should clarify: my point about equal rates meaning equal value, no matter the counting numbers, is true at the break-even point (whether that's 75% or 80%). If the rate is higher than break-even, then higher volume of attempts is better. If the rate is lower than break-even, then a lower volume of attempts is better.

And maybe that's what sanchez101 meant, in which case I quote Emily Litella.

"Never mind."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emily_Litella

104. Otherwise, your argueing that Peirre would be a more valuable player if he never stole any bases.

Otherwise, your arguing that Pierre would be a more valuable player if he never stole any bases.

Actually, Pierre would have the most value to the Dodgers if he was not one of them.

103- It's not an unmitigated good, it's possible the value is negative, for the reason you gave, but it is a variable that's relevant to his value (for better, worse, or even if it's a net push). None of it matters as much as what he's able to do with the bat. That's why I think of it as fine tuning. Saenz really isn't a thirdbaseman. But it's of some value (leaving aside precisely what that value is) that he can play a little third. Pierre is a slightly more valuable player because he can grow a rocking 'stache. That sort of thing.

I was just going to say that Pierre's value to the Dodgers would be greatest if he played for the Giants.

109 But Ned felt he had to go to five years to keep him away from the Giants. The best thing about Pierre is that we know he isn't on steroids, with a head as small as his.

Juan Pierre gives me Tom Goodwin flashbacks.

109 Trust me, Steve. I was very much thinking "What would Steve say right here."

It was truly your comment.

I have very little regard for how Ned Colletti feels at any particular moment in time, and I'm sure he returns the favor.

I submitted 105 before reading 104, so it looks like we agree.

But as for 106: For Pierre, if he's really expected to be above "break-even" then yes, I think he should try to steal bases (I just wish it weren't as a Dodger), the key word being "try." Of course, other things equal, successfully stealing a base is usually a good thing (unless it takes the bat out of the hands of a good hitter). But trying to steal a base is only a good thing if you succeed (gain a base), and it's a doubly bad thing if you fail (lose a baserunner, add an out). So, as agree, one should only try if one's probability of success (best estimated by success rate, but not the same thing, given contextual variation) is higher than "break even."

Whoops, I interrupted myself with excess verbiage, and missed my own point in responding to 106: Many, in fact MOST players are more valuable the less they try to steal bases. Sadly, given his speed and utter mediocrity otherwise, Juan Pierre is very close to that cutoff. But if we can expect his success rate to stay above that cutoff, then it's marginally a good thing that he does try.

With Pierres Career OBP of .351 and his SB success rate of 75%, would it be safe to say that 75% of the time Pierre gets on base he then advances an Extra Base? If he gets on base roughly once every 3 at bats and advances an extra base 3 out of every 4 base appearances, why would'nt he be a valuable piece to the offense?

If he gets on base roughly once every 3 at bats and advances an extra base 3 out of every 4 base appearances, why would'nt he be a valuable piece to the offense?

Because getting on base roughly once every 3 at bats is not very good.

117- Yeh it is.

No he only advances 75% of the times where he attempts to steal a base, not 75% of the time he gets on base.

119- Then why not send him every time.

Because extra bases are not important. Only outs are important, so you give up more outs in bulk while gaining no, or at best, only marginal value.

120 Because there are some tactical situation where it is a bad idea, specifically when there is someone slow of foot ahead on him on the bases for one.

116- Because he doesn't try to take an extra base, every time. He tried 78 times out of the 228 times he reached first or second (about 34 percent of the time). So, multiplied by his SB%, about a quarter of the time, when he reaches base, which isn't very often, he gets an extra one.

120- Because, presumably, he would make it less often. Also, you have to consider that he isn't always the only runner.

116. Of course not. He doesn't try to steal anywhere close to as often as he gets on. He got 200 hits and a handful of walks last year. He probably tried to steal about one out of 3 times that he got on, maybe a little less often.

And he got on 1 out of 3 PAs. And he was successful 3 times out of 4. So he got that extra base (not counting doubles and triples) in roughly .33*.33*.75= 1/12th of his PAs. I'd much rather have a guy who can hit a few HRs or a bunch of doubles.

That's off the top of my head. WE could look up the actual numbers.

Pierre was sent a third of the times he reached base and 75% of the times he was sent he advanced an Extra Base/s.

Those are good odds.

1/3 PA's = On Base
1/3 TOB(Times on Base) = Sent to steal
3/4 SB = Extra base/s gained

= justification for the amount of hate towards Pierre constantly simmering within this blog's comments.

118. What? .333 (1/3rd) would be an awful OBP for anyone, but especially for the guy on the team who gets the most PAs and has no power. Awful. Since Pierre's only plus skill (and then only marginally so) is his baserunning, he needs an OBP of .380 or so to be worth the roster spot, leaving aside his salary.

As ships that pass in the night. Oh well.

.333 is a great batting average. It's a lousy on-base percentage

125. Right. You and I did the same math. So now the question is how to value that extra base 1/12th of the time (and don't forget that extra baserunning out 1/36th of the time, which might as well lower the OBP).

You say that's enough extra value to warrant a starting job. What about a leadoff slot (most PAs)? What about the 5 yr commitment that blocks a prospect? I won't even go into salary, because that's really a different question.

I say no to all of those questions. I might be convinced to concede that he should be the regular CF and #8 hitter for 1 year, but that's as far as I'll go.

126-"Since Pierre's only plus skill (and then only marginally so) is his baserunning"

So where does his ability to get hits come into play?

Someone who maintains a high avg. and generates over 200 hits in a season can certainly hit that ball.

129- I don't like the five yrs and seriously doubt that he's going to block any prospects(except maybe the prospect of signing Andruw Jones next OffSeason), I just don't understand why his abilities that made him a valued Major League player are so easily tossed aside. In my opinion I don't think that Pierre will be a negative, I think that being able to hot swap him and Furcal in the 1-2 spots is going to come in handy throughout the season.

I guess we'll see.

We will see.

Indiana Jon,

Are you a Hoosier and if so, where do you hail from? Or, is that just a cool moniker?

Why would switching Pierre and Furry back and forth between lineup slots be helpful?

On a entirely unrelated note:

Has anyone else caught Jerry Seinfeld on his most recent tour? I saw him at Pachanga on the 6th and thought his new material was great. He had a 5 minute rant about people that use the term We'll see. Comedy.

133- Maybe when one is hitting better than the other, I like the luxury of being able to hot swap if needed.

38 Eric implied something about Gameday marking the pitches incorrectly. I can't argue that point cause I'd have to be there and see the pitch myself and compare it to Gameday's location. He might well be right but it reminds me of one of my biggest frustrations with this game we love: We all know too well that whether the umpire called ball or strike actually has no relation whatsoever to where the pitch actually was. These incompetents in blue are the biggest fault with baseball as we know it.

We'll see but i think the Dodgers are a better team with Pierre One batting leadoff.

137 Compared to what?

138 -- Apparently, Neifi Perez and Ronny Cedeno.

Is Canuck around? I'm interested in if he ever got around to watching The Sadist.

140- Coincidently, I'm interested in teasing him about this:

http://truebluela.com/story/2006/12/20/152616/51#commenttop

I wonder if I said that Plaschke wore panties for a hat, he'd magically appear. It's probably not worth the risk.

139 Also Angel Berroa, without a doubt the worst everyday player in baseball at the moment. He is the Russ Ortiz of position players.

121 This comment:

Because extra bases are not important. Only outs are important, so you give up more outs in bulk while gaining no, or at best, only marginal value.

...made me want to ask a question, not specific to this discussion, but generally. What kind of "margins" are we talking about when we talk about "marginal value" in baseball? To me there is a big difference between "no" and "marginal" value. "No value" means, I don't want it. But marginal value? It depends on what I'm giving up, and it depends on the actual weight of the margin. Is it one run per game? (Doubtful.) One run per five games? More runs, but not enough more runs to alter your W-L record?

And how does marginal value compare with replacement value? Is it on top of replacement value, or is it on some other axis altogether.

Sabermetrics is supposed to bring greater precision to analyzing baseball, and I believe it does. But some of the terms used to describe the principles are less than precise.

P.S. I realize this might not be the time to ask this question. But maybe if you've had a few egg nogs, you'll feel braver. If so, go for it!

138- I was just trying to give Seinfeld some new material.

Going back to the Pierre swinging at pitches out of the strikezone, according to Rick Lederer on Baseball Analysts, via the Bill James Handbook. Juan Pierre is one of the top 10 players in batting average in terms of hitting balls outside of the strikezone.

What that means, I have no idea. I can venture to guess that Juan would rather get a hit than take a walk, and thus loves to swing at pitches out of the zone, than take them and take a walk. And the fact that he can accomplish the feat of being a good hitter at pitches out of the zone has resulted in him not being benched yet.

However, it seems the much sensible thing and the one that I would recommend given the current situation, having him under contract for 5 years, is that we tell him he is not allowed to swing at those pitches (with what consequences I don't know). That is his weakness. Even if he has a high batting average in those situations, clearly he would be better off with a walk, because of the lack of chance to make an out.

new rumor to pass along

from the bluejays scout.com site. dont know how reliable it is.

"InsideTheDome has learned Toronto offered Reed Johnson, Dustin McGowan, and a Triple A pitcher for Penny, but they were turned down and given a counter offer of Rios and outfielder Adam Lind."

lind and rios is what i would want for penny as well. id probably be even willing to do a penny+ethier for lind, rios and mcgowan trade.

The verdict is even worse for Juan Pierre, Patterson's replacement in Wrigley Field this year. He stole 45 bases in 2004, third in the majors, but was caught 24 times, so instead of helping the Marlins score he actually cost them 1.7 runs.

I found this poking around. I make no representations as to its truth. The same article suggested that Rickey Henderson's 130 stolen bases were worth two runs that year. That sounds right to me on a logical scale, since, as always, the tipping point is always the ability not to make an out. A stolen base is merely endangering yourself for no real purpose; since you had already avoided an out in the first place, there would be no reason to yet again try to avoid an out. The stolen base is essentially a vanity play: it allows managers to give signs, feel important, and has bestowed a few careers on people who can take advantage of that.

There is no way they'd give up their best hitting prospect and Rios for Brad Penny.

Lord knows I wish they would.

The stolen base is essentially a vanity play: it allows managers to give signs, feel important, and has bestowed a few careers on people who can take advantage of that.

Amen.

148

they also get ethier back! :)

Furcal-Pierre 1-2 or Pierre-Furcal 1-2 can't possibly make much difference at all. If both play every day, the guy who hits first will end up with a few more PAs, but otherwise, it won't matter.

Now, Pierre 1st and Furcal 2nd vs. Furcal 1st and Pierre 8th - THAT might matter a little. Even then, however, only a little.

It's amazing to me after all these years of research, people (and here, I don't mean you, Curtis) still make more out of essentially meaningless things such as batting order than they do out of much more important things such as OBP.

On second thought, it's not THAT amazing. Batting order is something that managers can manipulate and that announcers and fans can second-guess. Because it's manipulable, people WANT it to be important. We can't manipulate a guy's skill level - it is what it is - so we argue about trivia instead.

The (or at least, one of the) annoying thing(s) about the Colletti/Pierre situation is that

1. Pierre will do his thing (162 games, 200+ hits, 50ish SBs, .290ish BA) in the leadoff spot
2. The Dodgers will score fewer runs this year than last year
3. Media blame for #2 will not be directed at Ned, who "Did a great job of putting the roster together." It will just be chalked up to bad luck and "one of those things." No mention of Pierre's inability to get on base or the loss of Drew from the lineup.

The stolen base is essentially a vanity play: it allows managers to give signs, feel important, and has bestowed a few careers on people who can take advantage of that.

The same can be said about virtually everything a manager does.

150 Maybe they'd do Eithier and Penny for Rios and Lind. Maybe.

But the deal needs to include a provision that JP Riccardi isn't allowed to say anything in public for three years. That guy is the biggest loudmouth executive to never win anything in his life.

He's worse than Bowden. Yup, I said it.

The problem is that they aren't all of equal value. So, you can do the quick and dirty math, and say that every SB over the break even point is worth a quarter of a run (about one fortieth of a win), and decide that it's not worth thinking much about. Or, you can compute every situation from game logs, and come out deciding that it's not worth thinking much about.

But I don't know anybody who thinks Dave Robert's stolen base in the 2005 ALDS was worthless. So, then you can ignore the math and decide that it's of whatever importance best suits your purpose.

If the Mets are really floating Pelfrey and Millege (which is what Canuck seemed to indicate in the last thread, IIRC) for Rios, I'd like to get in on that. Although, there's really no point in getting Millege, now (unless we really need another couple of months of Lugo at the end of the year), I like Pelfrey a lot.

155 Dave Roberts running against Posada is not a high risk scenario. Especially when Rivera isn't good at holding runners. If Roberts ran against Posada/Rivera 100 times, he'd make it 87-90% of the time.

I like Pelfrey a lot.

Yes indeedy. Pelfrey is a nice future #2.

143. Of course that's right, Ratt. And while we throw around the word "marginal" to mean something vague like "small," the whole point of the metrics is to well, measure that. Steve's point about the value of SBs being a case in point.

On the point of Pierre swinging at pitches outside the zone, it might not be as simple as telling him not to. If he can't judge (guess) when a pitch will be called a strike, then he won't know what to lay off. At this age, he either has that skill or he doesn't.

What he apparently DOES have is enough hand-eye coordination to make contact almost no matter whether it's pitched in a place where he can it hard or whether it's outside that zone.

You know, one thing that occurs to me with slap hitters is that they may NOT want to hit the ball hard. A well hit ball for a guy with no power might just be a warning-track (or less) line-drive out. They live off those little dunk-shots over the infield. Swinging at bat pitches might be the hitter's equivalent of throwing a change-up.

I remember playing IM softball one year in grad school on fields that had no fences. So for guys who could hit, OFers would play as so far back as to make it impossible to put the ball over their heads. So one season, I just decided to swing without really striding, and just dumped balls over the SS's head all game long. My modal PA resulted in a 100 ft. double. Only if the OFers came way in would I swing away.

im not a huge pelfrey fan.

The guy has no breaking ball whatsoever. his fastball has nice velocity and movement on it though.

One amazing thing about PJ is that, with all his "speed," he has managed to leg-out remarkably few doubles and triples over his career.

But I don't know anybody who thinks Dave Robert's stolen base in the 2005 ALDS was worthless. So, then you can ignore the math and decide that it's of whatever importance best suits your purpose.

Right. Which is why the Juan Pierres of the world should be paid (and played) like pinch runners - reserved for situations in which their only real skill is of the greatest value.

This is a topic never worth thinking about at all. Which is why I always wonder why it comes up.

Mike Pelfrey is a hundred feet tall. Everything he throws is a breaking ball.

163 Hey now. Some of your best material comes out of the Pierre conversations. It's like Congressional scandals. Sure, it's bad for the Union, but it helps employ stand-up comedians.

Why employing stand-up comedians is good, I have no idea.

a little off topic but after watching sickels release the majorty of his top organization prospect reports, it seems that he has been real loose with his grading this year. there have been alot of inflated grades in my opinion. too many A's/A-'s.

164

so dont we have our own mike pelfrey in bearded jesus? :)

166 Totally agree, an A for Gallardo today, an A- for Fernando Martinez. Just like in public school it is all about grade inflation. Seems like with his current grading we should have about 3-4 A's or A-'s.

167 As opposed to clean shaven Jesus?

Ben Franklin was too drunk to sign the Declaration of Independence, so Pelfrey signed it for him, thus saving the Revolution. And Christmas.

Mike Pelfrey is responsible for all the GOOD wars in the world.

168

I dont think the grade for Gallardo is too high. He is very very legit to me. But like, A-s to ryan braun, hunter pence, pelfrey, chuck lofgren, etc, those come to mind as inflated.

even the straight A grade for Brandon Wood is too much in my eyes.

Mike Pelfrey is responsible for all the GOOD wars in the world.

War: What is it Good For?

172- I'd have been willing to calculate it out, but the run expectancy numbers aren't up to snuff. Primary research is for grad students.

Primary research is for grad students

Tell me about it.

What, BTW, does Andrew "do"?

Tom Meagher is running a contest; there's a 2008 THT Annual in it for the winner.

http://fifthoutfielder.blogspot.com/2006/12/l-uis-gonzalez.html

just because im bored. ill give my grade on our prospects from andrews top 30 prospect list over at truebluela. ill just do the top 20.

1. scott elbert B+
2. andy laroche A-
3. clayton kershaw B+
4. james loney A-
5. Jonathan Meloan B+
6. Greg Miller B
7. Josh Bell B
8. Bryan Morris B-
9. Blake Dewitt B-
10. Tony Abreu *B
11. Justin Orenduff C+
12. Steven Johnson B-
13. Mark Alexander B-
14. Preston Mattingly B-
15. Alberto Bastard C+
16. Josh Wall C+
17. Travis Denker C+
18. Cory Dunlap C
19. Wesley Wright C
20. Bridger Hunt B-

174- I'm a bounder.

If injury questions are the reason for LaRoche's A- and Miller's B, I agree with that entire list.

I'm a bounder

Well, yeah, I knew that...

178

basically. laroche would have been a straight A but you have to dock a little for the injury/surgery. Miller's future role is uncertain and there is still uncertainity if he can regain his control with his new arm angles.

I always figured Andrews was a claims adjuster at Great Benefit Insurance Agency.

Or a scrimshawer.

181
Or maybe a scrivener

He's not a sniveler however.

Eventually we're going to have to set up some sort of picture thingy (I don't know much about this stuff) so that we all know what one another look like. I only know the peeps that were at Dodger Thoughts Dodger Stadium spectacular (Rob, Vishal, Philospher King, Bob, ToyCannon, etc.).

I, for one, look like a young Burt Lancaster.

I do know that Suffering Bruin looks like a well matured Karate Kid.

The most recent picture of me:

http://tinyurl.com/y8z96m

Martin Brodeur is a fine goaltender.

186 Fair's fair, I guess. Greg Brock in all his glory:

http://tinyurl.com/yzrjq9

Portrait of D4P as a young man:

http://tinyurl.com/y9nn39

If you insist.

http://tinyurl.com/yej5uv

Wow, Sam is Ironman. I always pictured Sam like this:

http://tinyurl.com/y8ywn3

I look about what you'd expect me to look like.

http://tinyurl.com/ybmeg4

189
Where's my left ear...?

193 - that was a sacrifice we were all willing to make. We salute you.

You guys have all seen Bob, right?

I'm not sure who's with him, although if he's home in this shot I guess it could be Icaros.

http://tinyurl.com/ylxktt

195 Wow.

I can almost guarantee that this is Steve:

http://tinyurl.com/y6lv54

163 There are 45 million reasons to discuss Juan Down.

161 I'd hazard a guess that because Juan has so little power, it's just not all that often that he hits a ball that is challenging for OFs to field. Plus, they play shallower and therefore closer to 2B and 3B with narrower OF gaps to boot.

176 Sucks to have a last name like Bastard. Really bad.

Here's hoping he makes it to the bigs before Vin retires.

You all have given me courage to reveal my true self---

http://www.theclaytontribune.com/content/article
s/2004/01/05/news/news01.jpg

199- Alberto Bastardo (Nate dropped the 'O') is the finest name of our generation.

Juan Pierre (JtO) the #15 base stealer of 2006. http://DanAgonistes.Blogspot.Com/
vr, Xei

Here's me, at Bob's library.
http://tinyurl.com/yct2ee
or not.
vr, Xei

If anyone's still looking for that perfect last-minute gift, this was advertised locally in the last few days. I'd expect it's still available...

"Free: 1 1/2 year old donkey; Wants: small pigs  568-xxxx"

Shipping via FedEX or however else could be problematic, I suppose. Maybe check into Pony Express shipping....

If you have small pigs, you're on your own. Guy may want Christmas hams...or something.

Or, read it another way, and you could get that the guy is giving the donkey away because it wants small pigs.

Whatever, sounds like an ideal Christmas present. Just think of the look of pure joy on the face of the person who gets it...

199 -- I'd kill to be have Bastardo, or even better, Bastard, as my last name. But legally changing your name is just tacky, so I would want to have been born with it.

I would also kill to be able to say I am from the town of Dildo, Newfoundland in Canada, but alas, few people can claim that.

132

Mountainmover, yes I am in Indiana. Columbus originally, now Martinsville.

Can you imagine being a Newfy and being from a town called Dildo? Thats a combo. My wife has a Newfy uncle named Lindo, so I guess thats their style.

Are the ridiculous gold jerseys the Wizards' normal road uniform?

I think they are a secondary uni, as if that is necessary.

I guess they are inter-changeable and wear them as a second uniform on the road and at home. That is interesting.

Worrisome headline from my google reader of the day:

Bryant suspended for recent arrest

I was relieved to see it was the WR from San Fran and not #24/8

[204] i love that the two lines of text under the picture are:

CLICK HERE to find a SEX partner in your area tonight!

Help keep Uglypeople.com clean.

206 - You could be Bob Bastard from the short-lived Dilbert TV series. Then you could say the line:

"Would anyone like to join me in a toast to failure?"

btw, sushirabbit, yes of course i do remember our ireland conversation! my mind had unfortunately not maintained the connection between your email and your screen name, however. sorry about that!

i did get to connemara. it was very lovely, though the weather wasn't exactly perfect. i stayed at a very nice b&b in clifden. didn't make it out to donegal, but i stayed at this really cool geodome place in the middle of nowhere in sligo. also, the cliffs of moher was one of the most amazing places i've ever been. all in all, it was a lovely trip, and i will definitely make it back to ireland someday.

Only 35 minutes until Festivus!

oh boy! I call not it for the feats of strength.

Jon is head of household, and must therefore wrestle any challengers. Personally, I'd rather have him delegate the feats of strength match to D4P and Andrew.

Happy Festivus everybody!

http://tinyurl.com/y6dev3

Good grief you guys, those pictures earlier in the thread were hilarious. And yes that is me standing next to Bob.

I'd rather have him delegate the feats of strength match to D4P and Andrew

We'll have to postpone the match until after the Holiday season. Due to the pneumonia, I've lost over 10 pounds, and my strength is at an all-time low.

220
I guess that was the first airing of a grievance.

Shocking news, scarcely to be believed: the new Pynchon book is long and unfocused. So says the NYRB.

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/19771

The thing I like best about Pynchon is it's so easy to pretend to have read him. When you pretend to have read as many books as I do, that's a very endearing quality. If not quite so endearing as to entice one to, um, actually read him.

I haven't read the NYRB since Calvin Trillin and I had that brawl during the middle of George Plimpton's party.

I lost a lot of respect for George Plimpton when he rigged the Spellympics.

And a hot plate!

Some day, I'll subscribe to the NYRB; then I won't have to read it anymore, I can just leave it lying around and let people assume I have. That'll be so sweet!

The Orioles struck an improvement deal with Fort Lauderdale and will not be moving to Vero Beach.

225
Yeah, but that's all canceled out by your Walmart fetish.

Smart people don't shop at Walmart...

Thomas Pynchon is on my list.

228- Christmas, or dead-to-me?

the latter

Is it wrong to take delight in Denver losing their first game with "A.I"...?

You are going down Wolverines. Bears eat Wolverines.

It's science.

I can never find Bridgette in those cheerleader cutaway shots. You know how all cheerleaders look alike. . .

232
That's really not science as much as it is just the way nature works. It's not like they are using the scientific method.

Just quoting Anchorman. Was going to say it's nature, but I do not know if anyone would get it.

It's early for me.

234- That sounds like War on Science talk to me. Keep your patriarchy off my uterus, Mr. Timmermann.

234 It's a line from Anchorman.

*did not know

ugh I need to eat something

It's not nature. It's "intelligent biosphering"

like wolverine sausages

237
And I even saw "Anchorman", but I didn't like it.

It's all part of me disappointing Greg Brock.

1) I'm soft on USC
2) I didn't like Anchorman or Shawshank
3) I don't want Karl Dorrell strung up from the highest yardarm.

Bob, are you stomach virus free?

241 You also don't think this is our country.

242
So far, so good.

Wait,

............. thud..... puke .....

Actually, I think I may have already gotten this and it was just a milder form.

Bob may be the cure for the Bird Flu.

The County Health Department sent out a flu awareness worksheet.

Apparently, experts think bird flu would affect younger people (teens and twenties) more so than older people.

Hooray!

246
Is Juan Pierre still in his twenties...?

I also got a notice at work from the Emergency Service People declaring December Emergency Prepapedness Month.

It arrived on December 19th.

What a depressing commercial.

Interesting trade.

Rangers get Brandon McCarthy and in return the White Sox get the much heralded John Danks and reliever Nick Masset. Some lower level minor leaguers will also be exchanged.

http://tinyurl.com/ybvkod

Wow, the Rangers got McCarthy. That's really good for them. If they get Zito, they might actually have a pitching staff for the first time in recorded history.

I wonder if the White Sox will go after someone like Weaver now.

I think the Rangers will sign Mulder.

From True Blue:
CF Juan Pierre* (.299/.342/.385, 3 HR)
C Russell Martin (.279/.359/.432, 14 HR)
SS Rafael Furcal (.286/.358/.431, 13 HR)
2B Jeff Kent (.272/.352/.473, 18 HR)
1B Nomar Garciaparra (.288/.354/.469, 14 HR)
LF Luis Gonzalez (.248/.342/.412, 14 HR)
3B Wilson Betemit (.262/.328/.451, 15 HR)
RF Andre Ethier (.296/.366/.463, 16 HR)
From me:
SS Furcal
RF Kemp
CF Rios
3B Garciaparra
2B Kent
LF Ethier
C Martin
1B Loney

One interesting thing about Andrew's lineup (with ZIPs projections) is that the average OBP percentage of the 8 players would be somewhere around .345-50 or so, which would probably be in the top 5 of the league.

254
Course, that doesn't count bench players and pitchers, who would undoubtedly bring the .345-50ish down...

255 And then there's that whole needing three hits to score a run thing.

Man I want some home runs.

Does UCLA have any promotion for the fans if the team scores over 100 points at home?

257 They used to have the Krispy Kream deal. I don't know if they still do.

It seems doubtful that the Bruins will crack the century mark. But I guess they weren't as bad as the East Coast Basketball Intellegentsia thought.

Or Diane Pucin.

Greg Oden looks like Artis Gilmore at age 45. He makes LeBron look like an 18 year old.

Sooooo....why are the Chisox making that deal? Are Danks et al really close enough to the majors that losing McCarthy is acceptable, or are they going to swing some of their new boatload of young arms to add some offense somewhere?

I guess it is legal for Oden to travel.

SouthSide Sox blog is very happy. Danks has a much higher ceiling and is not far from the majors. They have apparently stockpiled enough young pitching to trade some of it for a bat now. Could be players for Rios too?

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Rios playing center for the Sox. Plus they can trade Rowand back to the Phils for something else.

I'll take Michigan and 38 for $5.

If the Dodgers get Rios and he can play CF, as far as trades go that would be a good juan.

All it takes is one bad juan to chase everybody away.

263 Florida got their share of calls. But it was a poorly officiated game all the way around.

I can't believe it went so poorly. When the shots weren't falling, the shot selection just got worse and worse. I'm still excited about Ohio State for the rest of the year.

I think Ohio State will still make the Final 4 once Oden gets more healthy. Its tough for him to play offense with only 1 hand. I find it rather incredible he can shoot his free throws left handed, and still make a good percentage of them.

Florida, if no one gets hurt, will probably win another title. They're awesome. I dont see any weaknesses. One off nite and someone might upset them, but I think if they play at their best no one can beat them.

270 The team needs to figure out where Oden fits in. They seem reluctant to make him the focus of the offense. He'll get better, certainly, and I've been impressed with him so far.

I haven't seen Florida play this year except for the loss to FSU. So they have hardly impressed me. I really expected OSU to win this game. Imagine my shock.

I can't wait to see Ohio State play Wisconsin. Perhaps a home game against a good team might do them some good.

There hasn't been a repeat national champion in 13 years. I don't expect another one this year. Florida got hot and had a great tournament, but they weren't the best team last year, and they aren't the best team this year. But they had a great game today.

270
The NCAA Tournament's history is littered with the broken dreams of teams that had just one bad night or faced a team that had the hot hand.

So what happened to that UNLV team that returned all of its starters after winning the national championship? Hmmm... Let me think...

I think Florida is the best team this year, and they were the best team last year. I thought going into the tourney last year, that UConn had the most talent, but now I think Florida really did have more.

Brewer, Horford, and Noah are probably all NBA lottery picks. Green's probably a 1st rounder too.

They play so well as a team. I think Florida doesnt get much respect for last year, in the same ways the Detroit Pistons didnt get much respect. But after watching them play, you realize that the Pistons really did have some good players--Billups, Wallace, Prince, Hamilton, Wallace...They really were better than the Lakers in 04'.

I think Florida is a legitmately awesome team. They trounced Villanova last year in the tourney, and that same Villanova team in 05' had taken UNC to the wire. UNC went on to win it all in 2005.

I think Florida is the best team this year, and they were the best team last year. I thought going into the tourney last year, that UConn had the most talent, but now I think Florida really did have more.

In hindsight, I now think that the following teams were really better than they teams they beat for the championships in their sports:

1) the 2005 Texas football team
2) the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers
3) the 1963 Los Angeles Dodgers
4) the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers
5) the 1917 Chicago White Sox

I guess that all those world championship wild card teams were just laying low for 162 in order to trick everybody. And St. Louis was better than the Mets. And UCLA was the second best team in the country last year. And George Mason was the fourth best.

Florida was a three seed, and a very good team. But they got hot.

The Timmermann-Brock peace accord was negotiated.

277 It's a true Festivus miracle!

275--I'll also throw in that I (being a Rams fan) had no respect for the 2001 Patriots, and believed it was truely a fluke win. However, as time has gone by they really proved to be a great team.

279
I'm sure Bill Belichick will treasure that sentiment in his heart for years to come.

There isn't a truly great basketball team in Division I this year. There are a gaggle of really, really good teams. North Carolina, Florida, UCLA, Arizona, Kansas.

Wisonsin is interesting. Washington is a total wild card. There are some really interesting mid-majors like Wichita St. and Butler. It's as wide open a basketball season as I've seen in a while.

The Mountain West Conference is finally going down in a bowl game as the Lobos are getting hammered at home by San Jose State in the inaugural New Mexico Bowl, featuring New Mexico, in Albuquerque. In New Mexico!

Even better, New Mexico will likely finish with 5 points.

Those Spartan unis are smart lookin'

Dick Tomey needs to be a little bit less of a jerk.

I'm now 4-1 in predicting bowl winners. I was surprised by Troy last night beating Rice.

I guess the Owls were not what they seemed.

12 points is not as much fun of a total as 5.

Any time a coach works at San Jose St. and is described as "being the right coach for the right job," you have to feel kind of sad for said coach.

Dick Tomey, like all present and former UA coaches, is undefeated in Rose Bowl games.

Lou Holtz may be a buffoon, but the record will show that he was one heck of a football coach.

I'm sure he's a Timmermann favorite.

290
Holtz did make the joke once after the fans at Arkansas threw oranges on to the field to celebrate a bid in the Orange Bowl, "I'm glad we're not going to the Gator Bowl."

Brewer is probably not going to be a lottery pick. He would have if he left last year, but not anymore.

"You will not find stronger bonds of loyalty than with the guys who played for Bob Knight"

Um, I'm pretty sure Sven Nader, Bill Walton, Kareem, and every other Bruin player disagrees.

Swen Nader. I swear I fixed that. Darn fingers.

I'm sure Neil Reed would fall on a live grenade for Bob Knight!

I'm sure Neil Reed would fall on a live grenade for Bob Knight!

Only if Reed slipped while throwing it.

It's the Greg Brock and Bob Timmermann show! Thanks for an entertaining read for a guy who is sick and had to grade papers today.

Hey, I like Pynchon!

And I'm not pretending, either!

Indiana Jon,

I live in Indy. Not many Dodger fans in this part. I generally go to games in St. Louis, Cincy, Chicago & Milwaukee to see the Dodgers. I will be in Vero Beach with some other Dodgers fans March 20 to 30 this year.

E-mail: mark@uswatersystems.com

299 I'm in Columbus. If you're going to the games in Cincy this year, we could meet.

DT midwest!

300
Columbus, IN or OH?

299
I try to hit those places too. Never been to Milwaukee though or the new St. Louis. I may be in Vero at that time too. You may be the only Dodger fan I know in Indiana.

I assume you mean the new stadium in St. Louis and not some strange redevelopment plan that the city of St. Louis has sprung on the world without anyone noticing it.

Last time I was in St. Louis it didn't appear they new the meaning of the term "redevelopment".

Few things in sports can match the excitement of the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, Texas.

Do Steve and Daniel still root for Utah to stick up for their conference or does the dislike for the Utes run too deep?

Final Score: USC takes care of No. 8 Wichita State, 60-56. I assume this has already been mentioned on the Griddle.

The Griddle has been turned off for a few days, but that's a big win for the Trojans. Especially after blowing a game the day before to UNM.

I plan on going to the Galen Center for the USC-Wazzu game next Saturday. I'm assuming tickets are available the day of the game.

The Pac-10 is going to be brutal this year.

sweet, i get to watch the clippers game, 'cause they're playing you-know-who's rockets.

Excuse me this is the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl I'm watching. I really want a helicopter now.

307
It was actually K-State that beat SC; Wichita lost to New Mexico. We were playing the 3rd place game tonight.

Yeah, I don't think you'll have any trouble at the box office for Wash State. Entire sections have been going begging.

Myself, I'll be in Sect 115. But only Cardinal & Gold allowed on the lower level.

Ahh, I got my matchups in this tournament confused.

I have friend who are members of Cardinal & Gold, but they don't go to basketball games.
When I took my girlfriend (the USC fan) to a game at Pauley Pavilion, she asked me "Where's the big curtain?"

By Cardinal & Gold, of course, I really meant Filthy & Lucre. We don't have a curtain, but I hear there's a nice skyline view.

She was referring to the big curtain they used to hang up in the Sports Arena that would cut down on the number of empty seats.

313
Okay. Now that makes sense.

UCLA still hasn't sold out a home basketball game despite being undefeated and #1. Granted, the home schedule hasn't been all that interesting. UCLA and UW face each other on New Year's Eve. That should be interesting.

Probably won't sell out.

315
I heard todays game was sold out.

316
The attendance was listed at 11,875 I believe and that's short of a sellout.

Playing in a much bigger facility, Saint Louis U drew a crowd of over 22,000 for its game against North Carolina.

The Pac-10 is going to be brutal this year.

Spencer Hawes looks awful good; I'd say Washington will play Zona & UCLA pretty even.

How does Gonzaga lose to Wash St by 10 then beat UW by 20?

Sometimes Wazzu just bores the other teams to death.

Coach-son-of-coach still running the stall?

Washington State is averaging 68 points a game and giving up an average of 58 points.
Coming into today's game, Washington was averaging 89 points a game.

It's like a Road Runner cartoon at the Armed Forces Bowl. There is an ad on the field for "Acme Brick".

What, no talk about the Dodgers having just lost Edwin Bellorin to the Rockies?? What will we do now?

http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_4890473

I for one am beside myself with... well, not anger... no, not worry... what is it called? Shock? No... boredom. Yeah, that's it.

Oh, and Merry Christmas!

Bob, I have not yet developed a dislike for the Utes. They have a fantastic two-way star in Eric Weddle, and with something that unusual it is hard not to like them this year.

BTW, the BYU-Utah game this year is being described as the best ever. Those of you who couldn't watch it missed out on a fantastic game.

In keeping with the Christmas spirit............Its times like when I read the Dodgers.com or ESPN message boards, that I an so thankfull that I found DT.....

"For the record Luis Gonzales hit 15 HR's last year. Now if we are complaining about aq total of 5 runs difference between Lg and JD I think we are being ridiculous."..

.....is just a taste of some of the posts about the new lineup I have recently come across

2 @#$& hours to read all these posts.

But the picture of Xeifrank was worth it. Now I can envision that face when movie talk starts.

One good thing about the off season is that next season talk of Pierre will be unnecessary, right?

If you really have to come up with a nickname, how 'bout "He who shall not be named".

Forgive me father.

If you really have to come up with a nickname, how 'bout "He who shall not be named"

There's only one Lord Voldemort. No baseball player is worthy of the Dark Lord's name.

328 May have found a picture of DzzrtRatt==

http://webhost5.nts.jhu.edu/~histsci/route66/interviews/picture005.jpg

Interesting car, at least.

In a recent thread Sushirabbit said--

"And Twerp if you see me in person don't hold my past comments against me, I just pray to God you don't work for my company. "

And here Twerp says:

Now I know who goes first in the next company downsizing! Merry Christmas!

Actually, the good news is I have no idea what comments you're referring to.  The bad news is that apparently you did make some comments.  Now apparently you feel guilty, and have doubly fouled up by apologizing for offense the offendee didn't even know had taken place. 

So, I reserve the right not to be offended by something I never saw.

Unless these comments questioned my allegiance to UT, or something equally dastardly.

331 That looks like my neck of the woods. Junipers abound!

301

You rang?