And I thought Paul Quantrill and Paul Shuey were overpaid Dodger relievers.......

Silly me.

The Dodgers "avoided arbitration" by giving Mark Hendrickson a $1 million raise.

He was 2-7, with a 4.65 ERA, and got a $1 million raise, because the Dodgers apparently believe--not without foundation--that the arbitrator would have said, "Nope, you can't give this guy just a $1 million raise after a season like that. You have to give him more."

I understand the concept that baseball players are sort of like movie stars, and that their outrageous salaries should thus be compared to other performers who generate big bucks.

That analogy falls apart with this deal. If the Dodgers really had a million dollars burning a hole in Frank's pocket, I'd have offered it in a contest to get people to come to a mid-week game against the Pirates that would normally get low attendance. They would've seen a significantly bigger ROI. This is just sheer waste.

Josh Rawich has an excellent post at ItD, including a defense of the all-you-can-eat pavillion.

2 Hendrickson had a career year last year, by far, he was certain to get a raise. When Jason Marquis gets 21 million, it's not much of a stretch to say Hendrickson deserves five or six million. He shouldn't have been tendered a contract in the first place, but the Dodgers did just save 1-3 million dollars.

Reg is just finishing up his year-long fellowship with the Congressional Budget Office.

Speaking of Devil Rays -- current and former -- Alan Schwarz writes this on ESPN.com:

Cold Plate Special: Joel Guzman
This former Dominican bonus baby once made scouts drool more than padded bleachers. A do-it-all slugging shortstop with the Dodgers, Joel Guzman never developed much after that and wound up being traded to Tampa Bay last July as a mid-range prospect going south. He's still immense (6-foot-5, 250 pounds), just 22 and has as much raw power as any young player you'll find. Yet problems with plate discipline and inside stuff have handcuffed him at the higher levels, and he looks more like the Ruben Rivera than much else.

http://tinyurl.com/yan32d

But David Ross signed for just $2.25 million per year with the Reds, but he got a 2-year deal.

Ned needs to convince Minaya of Hendrickson's greatness.

8. That would be perfect!

8

I don't know how. He can't use "knows how to win," because he doesn't, and Ned himself already fell for "he's finally figured things out" last year.

Hendrickson "get's people on base a lot"

If he falls down again this contract will be totally worth it.

Did the big ogre at least throw harder out of the pen? I tried not to watch.

How about third best lefty pitcher on the whole Dodgers 25-man major league roster. Maybe all those superfluous words would get him confused and get him to trade us Philip Humber for him.

12

Agreed.

13 Maybe 1-2 MPH, but the reason I think he might become a good enough reliever is that he is a big change of pace for an inning or two from anyone else we can throw out there due to his height.

12
I'd be more than willing for Ned to resign Ja(y)son Phillips just to watch him get beaned by another throw from right field.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ev3m2O4XmFM

Relive the joy, folks. Someone added The Price is Right music.

18 Jon should have embedded that in this post.

It really is funnier the 125th time you see it.

19

If DT had avatars, this would be mine.

Hendrickson did okay against the Mets in the playoffs. That is his selling point.

http://tinyurl.com/ya38ka

Ross also has a $3.5 million team option for 2009

22 is to add onto 7

i like to think of mark hendrickson as big bird. oh, big bird.

24
I didn't even know we were calling him "Big Bird"...

Today's chat is brought to you by the letter D.

[25] i don't know if we are. but i like it better than BJ.

Mark Hendrickson has always looked like the Disney version of Ichabod Crane to me. The beard kind of hurts it now, but it's still there.

Matt Kemp gets the front page pic on the Dodgers minor league report.

i might be the only one that thinks hendrickson wont be totally useless next year as a middle reliever. Of course, hes being overpaid by about 2.5 million but neverless, I dont think we will cringe everytime he goes in for an inning or two.

Not the only one, Nate - I thought Big Bird, Ichabod, whatever we're calling him, looked much better out of the pen last year than as a starter and have much less concern about him as a reliever. I think he'll be of value there. I'm just glad we don't need him as a starter unless in an emergency. ("In case of emergency, break glass holding giant relief pitcher. Use with caution.")

Hendrickson will always look better in a situation where the team is counting on him for three outs as opposed to 21.

As will anybody who is a lousy pitcher.

I love when Steve finishes my Dodger Thoughts.

The trick is for Steve to finish your thought before you post it.

Call it super secret information or just a big "whatever" but there are some in the organization who believe that a big bird found a flaw in his windup and corrected it in the last month of the season. That doesn't explain settling arbitration but it might explain the Dodgers valuing him.

Gurnick in his latest mailbag says that the Dodgers want Gonzo to play all year in the outfield and do not really want to play Loney there much if at all.

The sign of being on Dodger Thoughts too much though is when you know turn on the TV and watch a program and realize Xeifrank is already disappointed with you.

Xeifrank has, like, a Ben Afflack thing going on. He was on top of the world, that day when his comment made it into SI; that was only a few weeks ago, right? Now he's getting dumped on six ways from Sunday. Which is nice, but disjointing.

I'm not dumping on Xeifrank. On the contrary, I'm cowering in terror...

First they came for Bluetahoe
and I did not speak out
because I was not Bluetahoe.
Then they came for Bluebleeder
and I did not speak out
because I was not Bluebleeder.
Then they came for Xeifrank
and I did not speak out
because I was not Xeifrank.
Then they came for me
and there was no one left
to speak out for me.

Now if they were coming for Ben Affleck...

43 Take him.

They came for Bluebleeder? I was wondering where he went!

Affleck with an E? Well, I'll be jiggered; right you are. I never noticed.

Before that, they came for DodgerKid

I thought they came for Bokonon but he just switched identities.

Ben Affleck
The AFLAC trivia question

47
Who played "Basketball player #10" in the 1992 film "Buffy the Vampire Slayer?"

jigger 1 |?jig?r| noun
1 a machine or vehicle with a part that rocks or moves back and forth, e.g., a jigsaw.
2 a person who dances a jig.
3 a small fore-and-aft sail set at the stern of a ship. • a small tackle consisting of a double and single block or two single blocks with a rope.
4 a measure or small glass of spirits or wine.
5 dated Golf a metal golf club with a narrow face.
6 used to refer to a thing whose name one does not know or does not wish to mention : see them little jiggers?

I honestly had to look that up

Wow, Rikki Lake was uncredited too.

I'm more familiar with the word "jigger" following the word "thingamuh"

I only know jigger by number 4 on that list.

By the by, Pirate Bay is up to 15,000 dollars in its bid to purchase Sealand....

WE'RE RUNNING OUT OF TIME PEOPLE.

Thanks to a little research project I'm doing, I really, really wish the Dodgers could take 1998 back.

At the beginning of the year, they had this:

Piazza, Zeile, Nomo, Roger Cedeno, and Brad Clontz

After the trading deadline, this turned into:
Sheffield, Bonilla, Charles Johnson, Jim Eisenrich, Manuel Barrios, Dave Mlicki, and Brian Bohanon

By the start of 1999 this was: Sheffield, Todd Hundley, Robinson Checo, Arnold Gooch, Richard Roberts, and Aposto Garcia

Today, it's Elmer Dessens.

And about 25 percent of Ethier

Yes, we were all disappointed in Hendrickson's performance last year. But someone needs to balance the posts with a contrary view. First, give him a credit for being among a handful of two-sport professional athletes. Hendrickson performed fairly well in the American League. We may not have seen the real Hendrickson in the half-season that he pitched for the Dodgers. My hunch is that he is a very capable middle-inning eater, not prone to injury, who will be there if the Dodgers need another starter. In today's seller's market for lefthanded pitchers, the Dodgers probably paid him what he is worth.

56 If Hendrickson pitched like he did for the Dodgers for a full season, it would have been a career year. What we saw was Hendrickson's, so we're effectively paying for a career year at age 32.

56 But he's no Gene Conley.

By the way, Hendrickson and Conley both went to Washington State University, although I think it had "college" in the title when Conley attended.

59
Yes Conley to WSC and Hendrickson went to WSU. Interestingly, they still used that stylized logo of a Cougar in the shape of a W, S, and either a C or U.

http://tinyurl.com/yd2mew

I still can't get used to the fact that a basketball game between Marquette and Louisville is a Big East game.

61
Well, get used to it.

He's not even gene rayburn.

59 My wife went to Washington State. We went back to one of her reunions a few years ago. I was struck by how isolated Pullman is. BTW, Edward R. Murrow and Keith Jackson are also graduates of Washington State.

If Keith Jackson had been reporting from Europe in the early days of World War II:

"This is London! Whoa Boy! The German bombers, the big uglies, are dropping some loads, here! It's hitting the people here like a horse that's trying to kick off a shoe. But the brave people of London are digging in and are ready to get down and dirty! Whoa boy!"

65
"Oh Nellie, let me tell you bout that (insert iconic WWII allusion)!"

63 That reminds me of the greatest Larry Sanders monologue joke of all time...

"Doctors have announced that they have discovered the gene that causes cancer...The bad news? It's Gene Rayburn."

65 And here's how Edward R. Murrow might have described this year's USC-Michigan Rose Bowl game: "Off in the distance, you can barely discern the last wisps of daylight. If you listen hard, you can bear witness to the prayers of the Wolverine fans. They have witnessed much on a dark and damaging day, and yet, their faith and hope will never be relinquished. For one thing is certain: Come tomorrow, they will rise and live another day despite the relentless assault of today."

I came not to bury Hendrickson but to praise him . . .

Gene Conley was mentioned as another two-sport professional athlete. Don't leave out
David Albert DeBusschere (October 16, 1940 – May 14, 2003), who like Conley and Hendrickson, pitched and played professional basketball.

Debusschere was drafted by the Detroit Pistons out of the University of Detroit in 1962 and won two championships with the New York Knicks. He became the youngest coach in league history at age 24.

DeBusschere was admitted to the Basketball Hall of Fame after a 12-year career (1962–1974) in which he averaged 16.1 points and eleven rebounds. He was also named to eight NBA All-Star Teams.

He pitched for the Chicago White Sox in 1962-63.

38. Xeifrank-disappointed-tv is all I got out of that post. Bob either needs to cut back on his tv watching or diet coke consumption, it's pulling his grammar down to human levels. vr, Xei

I'm waiting for movie chat to open up at the other end of the toaster spectrum. I saw a movie yesterday, and can't wait for the appropriate place or time to share my thoughts on it. Oh what the heck...
(safe viewing). vr, Xei
http://tinyurl.com/ydsq4c

65,68 Brilliant.

72 Thank you.

Paris Hilton is a singer/actress.

If you want to see an attractive female tennis player, turn to ESPN2 and look across the net from Maria Sharapova.

72
Yes, thank you!

3 That is another good post at Inside the Dodgers. Certainly a $20 ticket with food, including seconds and thirds, is a great deal for a youth outing and I bet having the prepaid food really simplifies things for the organizers. Sure, they've got to monitor overgorging, but that piece of it does cast the thing in a different light (and makes more sense to me combining the AYCE with the no-beer pavillion, assuming it stays that way).

Nice f-bomb, Maria.

Thanks, D4P, I tuned in just in time.

78
The lovely Ms. Pin is giving her a run for her money, but it looks like The Grunter will probably pull it out.

Nothing wrong with a grunter. Nothing wrong at all.

2 My understanding is that baseball "arbiration" is not genuine arbitration: the "arbitrators" don't find a "fair" number somewhere within what the team proposes and the player counters with. They simply pick one figure or the other. So both sides have everything to lose, and it's likely that the arbitrators tend to side with the player.

So if the Dodgers proposed, say a 5-10% raise over last year, somewhere around $2.1M, and Henrickson countered with $6 M, it could end up $6M if the arbitrarors found $2.1M inequitable. It is therefore in the Dodgers interest to settle at $2.9M.

Presumably this is exactly why the system works this way (pick A or B, not arbitrate). It conduces both parties to come to an agreement on their own rather than go to "arbitration". I imagine that if the player's counter was way, way out of line (say $12 M in this case) the team would risk arbitration and the player would lose out. Only it would probably just be a gambit that the player would lower 1 day before the deadline.

Does anyone know if pre-free-agent players under contract are allowed to have agents represent them in these negotiations? They're not so different, when all is said and done, only you know what the limits are when you start.

81
Baseball arbitration works pretty much the way you described except that pretty much every player uses his agent to represent. Players rarely say much at the hearings.

The abritrators (it's a panel of three now, it used to be just one person) have to choose between the management's salary and the player's salary. The abritrators can't negotiate a salary in between.

Most likely with Hendrickson, the two sides knew what figures they were going to submit and just agreed to meet at the midpoint. That happens in almost every case now. There are very few arbitration hearings that go all the way to the end.

ESPN says its 120 in Melbourne now, but weather.com says it's just 100!

81
One of the more recent arbitration hearings that went the distance was for Eric Gagne after the 2004 season. Gagne asked for a lot and lost.

I think it was 2004.

I wonder if anything over at The Griddle will address the weather in Australia...

I shall check...

81, 82 I guess the stakes have to be quite high for the parties to both feel compelled to hold their ground. Eric Gagne and Alfonso Soriano both had full arbitration proceedings in recent years (both losing).

I thought PECOTA cards were going to come out today. But they don't seem to have. Maybe tomorrow. That's when the new Martin Amis book comes out. So, there you go.

Poor Camille Pin. I figured she'd choke.

I pretty much megaloathe Sharapova.

88 Thinks Montana is a bad quarterback, hates Sharapova...

There's contrary, and then there's, you know, retarded.

Guys in checkered jerseys brawling at the Australian Open.

I have to be careful where and when I wear that jersey.

holy crap turiaf just flew.

So I went to Camille Pin's website and tried to access a few of her photo galleries. I was denied. The site is in French, a language I don't speak. But, using nothing but my wits (and internet experience), I was able to become a member of her site (by entering a username, email address, and password), and thus access her galleries.

Tell me she's not cute:

http://tinyurl.com/y9869j

92

not a fan.

Dude...She's not really workin' for me. In the land of female tennis players, Camille Pin is not getting a job done.

nice vert by bynum. didnt think he could do that.

She's got a bad case of "Athletic Chick Face" going on.

I would have to pan Mme. Pin.

93-4
You guys are crazy! That is one of the cuter photos I've seen in quite some time.

97
Define "pan" si vous plait

Ishtar got panned.

Lakers at home : Lakers on the road :: Day : Night

101

thats the majority of most teams in any sport.

Mme. Pin is no match for Dutch speedskater Marianne Timmer.

http://tinyurl.com/y48kyz

She's married to Dutch soccer goalie Henk Timmer, who conveniently had the same surname as she. Timmer is a fairly common Dutch surname.

103
Yikes. More like Marianne Coulter.

103 Helen Hunt over there is alright. Me, I'll take this gal:

http://tinyurl.com/yc5cpt

The Sony Ericsson WTA Tour site tells me that "Camille Pin" is pronounced "CAM-ee PAN".

I knew "Pin" was pronounced "PAN," but I wouldn't have guessed that "Camille" was pronounced "CAM-ee." I would have guessed that "Camille" was pronounced "Kah-MEEL"

But you have to appreciate the family website name:

http://www.timmerentimmer.com/

105
The woman described in that link reminds me of some times I've just sat in a restaurant waiting and waiting and waiting ...

Coming down to the wire in the Border War in Lawrence.

Re: 98

I'm with D4P on this one--I at least think Mme. Pin is very attractive. Say whatever else one wants to say about the French, but their young ladies can be very attractive.

Of course, nowadays, because of a book I'm reading, when I think of the French, I tend to think of the paras fighting in Algeria against the FLN back in the day--a very different sort of French than the American stereotype, or what the French would probably like the rest of the world to see.

WWSH

71 That is one funny discription you have on the blog there XeiFrank.

111
But if Jon started the site and he allows people to discuss what he wants, what gives anyone of us the right to dictate what can and can't be mentioned here?

I just don't get it.

I really don't.

I knew if I just kept refreshing the page long enough, the PECOTAs would appear. There's a request at the top that they not be distributed; does that mean that they can't even be properly excerpted, or just that the spreadsheet shouldn't be passed around? They're bullish on Kemp and, to some extent on JP--they've got him OPSing over 700. Just barely. Lance Carter is projected to be better than Page Break.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=146

112- I think we should fight about whether we're allowed to talk about whether we're allowed to talk about something. Starting with this Pin woman. Which, by the way, unless she's married, should be Mlle Pin. Unless she's as old as she looks, in which case, never mind.

Mlle. Pan (I didn't know that abbreviation, so thanks for the tip) is not mentioned as married in her official bio:

Coached by Eric BrTmond; travels with practice partner Carine Bornu ... Baseliner who prefers hardcourts ... Father, Claude, is a former college professor; mother, Florence, is director of a chemical laboratory; has two older sisters, Valerie and Raphaelle ... Most memorable experience was scuba diving in a cave in Mexico ... Enjoys water sports such as water skiing, wake boarding and scuba diving, as well as snow boarding ... Likes to visit Australia because of its peopleÆs mentality and the different, beautiful landscapes ... Describes herself as sociable ... Admires her sister Raphaelle as a kind of angel with an incredible brain ... Likes playing on the Tour to do the things she loves in life: sport, travel and challenges ... Graduated from high school in 1998 ... Favorite movie is Le Grand Bleu; favorite actors are Johnny Depp and Anthony Hopkins; favorite book is La Reine Margot.

She's 25.

114
I'll have you know she's 25. The photo I posted was apparently taken in 2004. I think she's married, or at least engaged.

112. Relax, nobody is dictating anything. Well, you are dictating what I can't dictate, other than that, nobody is dictating anything. :)
vr, Xei

116
Upon further review, I don't think Mlle. Pin is all that bad-looking. And no one is going to look all that great when they're out in 100 degree heat for two hours.

However, I would still opt for Maria Sharapova because she has a lot more money, a feature I find very attractive.

I would still opt for Maria Sharapova because she has a lot more money, a feature I find very attractive

I didn't know that about you. I'm a little surprised.

119
Remember I have high opportunity costs.

Frank Robinson has a lot of money.

120
Well, I knew the reason you plan to keep your LA job, but still...I mean, you've already got your Prius...What else do you want?

Paraphrased from Dodgers.com==

After bombing as a starter and getting sent to the pen, Hendrickson was a different pitcher. He credited a renewed mental approach resulting from hiring noted sports psychologist Ken Ravizza.

"He helped me tremendously and we've talked several times during the winter," said Hendrickson. "I took a couple of great steps forward working with him after not pitching up to my standards."

He began working with Ravizza when he went into the bullpen, and had a 0.84 ERA in six relief appearances, allowing one earned run in 11 2/3 innings with 12 strikeouts and only six hits allowed. Yes, said Hendrickson, the pressure of replacing the injured Brett Tomko in the starting rotation in a pennant race got to him.

"L.A. presents a lot more difficult things than Tampa Bay," he said. "The expectation level is so high, the atmosphere so intense. This is the first time I've been in a postseason run and all the pressure that comes with it. Ken's been such a great help for me, I'll continue with him beyond this year.

"You hear athletes say that 98 percent of this is from the neck up. I was at the point where I had to do things differently to get back on track to where I was in the early part of the year."

He turned in 2 2/3 scoreless innings in three appearances against the Mets in the playoffs.

Small sample size, etc. But promising.

122
The future, Mr. Gittes! The future!

I think Xei is having us on. Even he must realize that movie chat is better than hearing about the fake rehabilitation of Mark Hendrickson.

Hmmm...I just realized that Google has a feature that translate Mlle. Pin's website into English.

What will the internets think of next?

126

The possibilities are endless with a system of tubes.

Yay Hugh Laurie! Consistently the funniest speech giver on the circuit.

All I'm gonna say is that I picked a crazy time to start getting hooked on 24.

Actually, there happens to be a GG chat at the Jam.

Henrickson's shutout playoff series, as it happened:

Game 1
Green struck out; Valentin was hit by a pitch
[Floyd to second]; (Guillermo, not Manny) Mota flied to right.

Game 2
Chavez forced Wright (pitcher to catcher) [Floyd to third, Valentin to second]; FRANCO BATTED FOR GLAVINE; Franco forced Chavez (shortstop to second) [Floyd scored (unearned), Valentin to third]; Reyes singled to center [Valentin scored (unearned), Franco to second]; Lo Duca forced Reyes (shortstop to second)

Game 3
Delgado grounded out (first unassisted); Wright walked; Chavez grounded into a double play (shortstop to first) [Wright out at second]

So, yeah, he really owned Endy Chavez.

129
It is pretty much like this all the time.

We'd all better hope PECOTA is three miles off the mark on Lincecum. Or, at least, that Sabean trades him for Doug Mientkiewicz. Although, it'd probably better if he didn't end up with the Yankees. Lincecum and Hughes? That'd be pretty crummy for a pretty long time.

132 - yeah, and it's like crack. I have class this semester from 7:20-10:00, so thankfully I can program the ol' VCR.

But for the sake of those who like their burgers without ketchup, Gurnick's mailbag reported Ethier had been icing his non-throwing shoulder after every game. Gurnick reports that some in the organization felt that he kept quiet about it but it hurt his swing.

112 I just thought it was a funny discription, not necessarily validating or invalidating it. Just humorous in a defiant, stubborn sort of way.

133. Lincecum is pretty good. Probably good enough to break camp with the Giants, but they will most likely bring him along slowly. I wouldn't be surprised if he was in the rotation by the 4th of July. vr, Xei

112Afterall I would agree with you. If all I wanted was complete non-stop Dodger talk I'm sure I could find that and invest my time there, but I enjoy the wit, intellect and personalities here at Dodger thoughts and the variety of topics. I appreciate Jon's articles and that he allows everyone be themselves. I also appreciate a site where people aren't insulting one another constantly and every other word is crude or profane.

good stuff on cults on history channel right now!

The Lakers have made 13 3-pointers, and attempted 11 free throws.

139. didn't watch it, but from the looks of the current box score, Cook is having a nice game. vr, Xei

Luke Walton with a big mistake. He usually is a lot smarter with the ball.

I still cannot believe Jason Kapono is relevant.

lol you can buy the first 4 episodes of this season of 24 starting tomorrow at stores.

Earlier tonight FSN was showing a 2000 USC-UCLA game featuring Jason Kapono. That UCLA team had Kapono, Moiso, and Gadzuric. It should have been great.

Why wasn't it?

Oh wait, Steve Lavin.

Dodgers starting pitchers, ranked by PECOTA EqERA

Kershaw
Kuo
Schmidt
Penny
Lowe
Billingsley
Tomko
Wolf
Elbert
Hendrickson
Stults
Bastardo

Unlike ZIPS, which loves our rotation, PECOTA is really down on it. Kershaw leads with a 4.04 ERA, and starters with an ERA under 4.50 stop at Penny.

I haven't looked at offense, but if these are true, it's going to be a really, really bad season.

This is Kershaw in the minors?

General offensive overview:

Actual decent season out of Luis Gonzalez

Best players on the team aside from Kent and Ethier starting in AAA. Very high on LaRoche, Loney, Kemp, and, strangely, Anthony Ragliani.

We're going to regret losing Sergio Pedroza.

146 No, Kershaw in the bigs. That's his major league equivelant line.

That is kind of insane to guess how a pitcher would do in majors when he is in single A.

149 It's admiteddly a crapshoot, but I would like to see his comparables.

149

it is insane, thats why you take any projection system with players in the low minors with a grain of salt.

145. ZIPS had the highest correlation with pitchers last year somewhere around .48 (would have to look it up). PECOTA had the highest correlation with hitters last year, somewhere over .7. Predicting pitchers is obviously much harder to do than hitters.
vr, Xei

I am just confused how Gonzalez can have a good season if he has been in total regression and is moving from Az to LA.

Unless when you mean decent you mean he was not terrible.

153
I should say is projected to have a good season.

153 By good season, I mean not a disaster. Think OPS in the high 700s.

151. Name me one better way to evaluate how a minor league player will do at the major league level other than MLE? MLE works almost as well as past major league performance in predicting future major league
performance(*).
vr, Xei

147- And how about Werth? Especially if he actually could play CF.

Is there a good way to guess how a 19 year old, with 37 professional IP, would play if thrust in to the MLB? Mabye MLEs are the best, but how good could they possibly be?

The weirdest thing, to me, about the Kershaw projection is that the Beta is so low. How could the numbers be anything like that reliable? Weird.

158
I concur.

158. I guess you'd have to ask the author.
vr, Xei

I thought I had jinxed the Laker game. I saw online that the score was 108-101 Lakers and took a last look and saw it was 110-108 Lakers with a few seconds left. By the time I found the remote and the TV warmed up regulation had just ended with a 110-110 tie and Kobe Bryant shaking his head in disgust. Luckily, the OT was better and the Lakers hit their free throws to seal the deal. Seems like Kobe's supporting cast has really improved this year. That, or Kobe is actually giving them a chance to give a meaningful contribution. vr, Xei

Last year, before the season, the PECOTA projections for the year 2010 came out. They had Martin, in his age 27 season, hitting .255/.348/.387. At age 26, Loney is supposed to hit .259/.333/.428. Ethier, at age 28, is supposed to hit .269/.334/.401. Billingsley at age 26 is supposed to have a line of 106.1 IP, 98 H's, 48 BB, 90 K's, 4.09 ERA. All the hitters did better in their rookie seasons than they are supposedly going to do in their fifth MLB seasons. Billingsley in his rookie year, at only age 21, had a lower ERA than he is supposed to have in his fifth year. It is a bit of harmless fun looking at statistical projections generated by any the systems out there, but they should never be taken too seriously, especially for minor leaguers.

161
Both

Atleast we aren't having to worry about this problem. We have our own, but luckily this is some other teams. vr, Xei
(safe viewing)
http://tinyurl.com/yz3vyu

164 and [Michael] Young probably will get a contract near 4-40. Probably conservative in today's market; if Jean Pedro gets 5-44, a Ned-like GM will pay 5-60 for a 200-hit, serviceable SS. (Rangers hold an '08 option at $4M, so he isn't likely an FA until '09 at age 32.)

144- I was watching some of that game before I went out tonight. I pondered the same question. I also came to same the conclusion. They showed the standings during the game and I was amazed that UCLA was near the bottom of the pac 10 with Arizona State. I really liked the players on some of those Steve Lavin teams (Watson, Davis, Gadzuric). I think about how these guys would have developed into even better players if they had been coached by Howland. Heck, Ray Young might have been a star. I'm pretty sure that he was one of Lavin's top recruits.

144 I had to live through five years of Lavin's incompetence while at UCLA, something that made it that much easier for me to continue to root for Arizona (the college my parents went to and I had been rooting for since I was little). My hypothesis was that there was so much talent on each of Lavin's teams that the fact that they made it to the Sweet 16 every year was due to the fact that the players had finally learned how to play with each other despite hearing what Lavin had to say.

145 That's why I don't take any projections seriously

The statement was posted that had Hendrickson played a full year with the Dodgers, it would have been a career year for him. False. A full season with the Dodgers would have given him a record of 4 wins and 14 losses. Hendrickson won nine games in 2003, 10 in 2004, and 11 in 2005. His ERA was higher in the AL but factor in DH.

169- Win totals are don't mean very much. You're right that his ERA would have to be massaged with the league change, and I think you're probably right that 2006 wouldn't be a career year for Hendrickson if he'd pitched just the way he did in L.A., over the full season. It'd be close, anyway, with 2004. K/9 up, BB/9 down, WHIP up. His ERA+ with the Dodgers was 98, his highest since his rookie partial season in 2002.

Actually, I don't see why we don't just call that his career year. He didn't throw that much. When he did throw, he was great (thanks to a .235 BABIP, but still). Less Hendrickson is more better.

170- Oops. BB/9 was higher in 2006; it was down in the sense that it was worse, but not in the, you know, definition of the word sense.

Now I just need to find a hacker who can help me forcestream this video into all of Bob's telecommunications/computing platforms.

http://tinyurl.com/yeeuz7

Ignoring stats and projections and the like, I think the Dodgers have good replacements for Tomko, Hendrickson, and Biemel in Meloan, Miller, and Alexander.

The Nationals need starting pitching perhaps more than any other team. I think there is still a trade the Dodgers are going to make and it could involve more than one team.

Nothing would please me more (Dodger lineup wise) than to see Nomar at third and Loney at first next year. So here is to adding Betemit to the Tomko, Hendrickson, Biemel package to see what the Dodgers might get in exchange.

173: The Nationals wouldn't be interested in any starting pitcher over age 25.

174 Are you saying that congress still has elected officials that like younger guys?

174- You don't think they'd make an exception for Tomko, Hendrickson, and Beimel? That's the kind of package that could make your boys instant contenders. For something.

My PECOTA fair use question was answered, this morning, by Kathy in Customer Service: "Generally, we're fine with quoting five player projections." So. There you go.

All this talk about projections got me thinking about a TV show I used to watch as a kid called Square One TV. It was all about math and in one episode, the manager didn't want to put in a player because they were batting only .100 against the pitcher. Well, the player did and hit a home run.

Now that I am an older, more intelligent reader of DT, I realize that while this does happen, more often than not, it doesn't. In any case, here's to the Dodgers doing far better than the projections.

176 ...could make your boys instant contenders. For something.

And isn't being a contender for something better than not being contenders for anything?

Sam (speechless in) DC

172
I got live reports from that, Sam.

Will someone please give the Juice bloggers something else, more baseball-related to blog about? Get right on that, stat!

Btw, I think Meloan, Miller and Alexander - or at the very least one of then - will definitely contribute to the Dodgers next season. (Hopefully to replace Tomko.)

179- Not always. The Nats are going to lose a lot of games next year. There's probably no way to avoid that. So, spending extra money to lose a few fewer doesn't improve the team, much, this year. It doesn't make them better for next year, or the future. So, what's the point?

Especially considering the Dodgers would probably want something back for those three. The Nats have six position players who aren't terrible (Kearns, Snelling, Church, Johnson, Lopez and Zimmerman), three OFs, three IFs. Would trading any of them for Tomko, Hendrickson and Beimel make the team better? Even admitting that the Nats have no pitching, I'd be amazed. The drop off they'd take from running Marlon Byrd out to CF every day, instead of Church would be huge. Ch-i knows who would play 1B, instead of Johnson. While the Nats can rightly be said to have no pitching, they do still have a few starting (or swingman) pitchers projected to be better than Hendrickson and Tomko, including Zach Day, Joey Eischen, Jason Bergmann, Winston Abreu, et al. It doesn't take much to be better than Tomko or Hendrickson.

The Nats' farm club is pretty thin, but, of their top 10 (by Sickels), eight are pitchers. So, why would they trade a pitcher that may be worth something, some day, for three pitchers who aren't worth their contracts today, when there is next to no reasonable chance of their contending for a playoff appearance, this year, and it's no great certainty that the pitchers they traded for would help?

More fun with projections: So, I've been poking around with them, and ran my ZIPs/PECOTA/Marcel averages through the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool. The expected, Opening Day lineup (in the pitcher's spot, I used the 2006 production numbers from the Dodgers' number nine slot) would be good for 796 runs. That's only twenty-four fewer than last year's team scored. Not so bad.

183 It is not easy to trade players fans don't have much appreciation for and assume no GM other than the GM that obtained them would appreciate them either.

But Ned not only kept Hendrickson, he gave him another million to do so. I only like about half of what Ned does but I still assume that he makes decisions with something other than a weegee board.

Tomko and Hendrickson have the ability to eat innings and if they average 7 innings with a 5.00 era (a big if), that means as means go that they leave with the other team having 3.88 runs scored.

Adding two pitchers that can keep a team from the wrong end of blowouts is worth quite a bit, regardless of how many wins are added due to them being in the rotation.

The Nats still have to sell tickets this year. Regardless of the statistics that might come back to me about the inability of the pitchers mentioned being able to average 7 innings, the argument that nobody would ever want Tomko or Hendrickson includes the assumption that only Ned is stupid enough to obtain and pay those pitchers. We will see soon enough I would imagine.

The wins that put a team in the pennant race are worth a lot of money. The wins that get them from 65 wins to 70 (much more improvement than should be expected from adding Tomko, Hendrickson, and Beimel to the team) aren't worth very much at all, at the gate.

Clearly other people have been stupid enough to pay Tomko and Hendrickson. I'm not sure what that has to do with whether they should be traded to the Nats. Were you just throwing the Nats out there? You don't indicate what you'd want back, so, maybe you're not sold on trying to trade with them, in particular?

I hope Colletti ships off Hendrickson and Tomko to somebody else. I don't care very much what he'd get back. I just don't think the Nats match up well, for the reasons I gave. Also because I have some affection for Sam DC, and don't see how the world would be better for screwing up the team his kids root for.

Per Rollie Fingers (http://tinyurl.com/yjut7u
scroll to Rollies top 10 predications for 2007):

7. The Giants will come out and play great ball and actually win their divison by a couple of games over the Dodgers.

Not sure if Mr. Fingers is an expert worth listening to (I'm thinking no), but interesting to read what someone "who played the game" thinks.

Tomko and Hendrickson have the ability to eat innings and if they average 7 innings with a 5.00 era (a big if), that means as means go that they leave with the other team having 3.88 runs scored.

Any pitcher's ERA can be adjusted similarly, so that the if the pitcher one of these non-entities is pitching against has a 4.50 ERA, it is similarly true that over seven innings, that pitcher will give up 3.xx runs. Changing the denominator does not change the quality of the pitcher (whereas running them both over with a bus would solve everybody's problems)

Anyone know if its possible to get an idea as to where your seats would be if you were to get a 15 game miniplan? Ticketmaster is of no assistance and I cant seem to get ahold of anyone on the phone. The number I hunted down on the website is busy.

186 Yes to your question. I threw out the Nats because they do need quantity versus quality starting pitching next year but other than that, I just want to see Tomko and Hendrickson prosper on another team that would use them as they want to be used--as starters.

Since I have no idea what team might want them I wasn't suggesting a person in exchange for them. Also, I do not have a clue what they are worth but unlike others, Ned and I think they are worth something.

188 True but not the point I was trying to make. Turning a game over to relief pitchers in the eigth inning with the other team having only 3.88 runs is going to win quite a few games if the relief pitching is any good.

If the Nats, in this example, were to start pitchers other than Tomko and Hendrickson and they went only five innings and let the other team score 4 runs, the Nats are going to lose quite a few games even with good relief pitchers.

191 How often does that happen, though? It seemed like three out of four games, Hendrickson would get shelled, then in one game, the rockets would find fielders, and he'd do something like one run in seven innings.

The Nationals picked up a ton of players of the scrap heap, and I'm sure someone like Joel Hanrahan can replicate what Hendrickson can do. If not him, then one of the ten equivelant players the Nats picked up.

How many times, as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers, did Mark Hendrickson turn a game over to relief pitchers in the eighth inning with the other team having four runs? I disagree with your premise that that will "win quite a few games if the relief pitching is any good" -- I actually suspect that it won't. But let's assume your statement is true. How many times did Mr. Innings Eater actually do what you say he can regularly do?

187 Presumably Mr. Fingers knows at least a little bit more about baseball than he does about, say, tax law.

How many times, as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers, did Mark Hendrickson turn a game over to relief pitchers in the eighth inning with the other team having four runs?

Once. August 11, vs. the Jints.

But he did that, or better, six times, with the D'rays, last year. So, seven times out of his twenty-five starts in 2006.

And the number of times Mr. Seo did it?

Eight times of thirty-one starts in 2005. Eleven times of thirty starts in 2004. Four times of thirty starts in 2003.

And by the way, in that August 11th game, how many baserunners did he allow?

197 was still Hendrickson. Looking up Seo. . .

Seo did it once in L.A., May 22nd, vs. the Rockies. It was the only time he pitched at least seven innings. He did it four times in Tampa Bay, last year.

And the year before?

Seo, continued: Seven of fourteen starts in 2005. Eight times in twenty-one starts in 2004. Eight times in thirty-one starts in 2003.

Once we start comparing Hendrickson and Seo, the battle has already been lost.

Once we start comparing Hendrickson and Seo, the battle has already been lost.

Yes.

I prefer getting kicked in the face to being kicked in the schvantz.

But the ideal choice is "neither"

Anybody looking for an extra person in any fantasy leagues? I'm a competetive manager and would like to join a competetive league.

Sam, off subject, but you may find this new movie blog interesting:
http://cinemaindcblog.blogspot.com/

Has a DC-area focus.

I haven't been much of a Hendrickson basher, exactly. I can sort of squint, hold up a piece of cardboard with a little pin-hole in it, and see some value in having the guy on the roster, just to see what will happen (perhaps a comic result.)

I just find it incredible that someone who had to stretch to be mediocre ends up with not just a raise, but a ONE MILLION DOLLAR raise.

I understand the arbitration game, and baseball salaries, and the showbiz aspect, etc. I also realize that, bad as he is, Mark Hendrickson is a better athlete on his worst day than I was on my best. But I also understand that if Hendrickson, improbably, wins 15 games next season, he'll be in line for something in the order of a $10 million raise (hopefully not from the Dodgers), so I find it amazing that he could find his paycheck that much heavier after even what he would concede is a lousy season.

I guess what it comes down to is: Major league baseball talent is compensated as a commodity. You're not paying the person a salary like you pay most working people; you're paying the weight and class. If pork bellies are $6/unit, that's what you pay. If raw diamonds are $50000/unit, that's what you pay. Hendrickson is more pork-belly than diamond, but if pork-bellies are up this year, he benefits.

It's all I can figure.

205, Chan Ho Park is your man then,

206, I commish a keeper league, but I haven't contacted everyone to see who may not be returning. I think there are already two DT contributors in the league. It is an eclectic mix to say the least but I'd say good 6 are pretty knowledgeable/competitive. Of course, the reigning champ had inside skinny from a former player apparently. Alas, I don't have the power of Bud. Anyway, if a spot frees up I'll post about it on here.

I've pretty much determined to go with 6 keepers, 2 in each third of salary ranking (baseball cube). If a team opens up you'd just get to choose from their players.

I don't think Hendrickson would concede that he had a bad season and I think he'd be right not to. He had a better than average season. He was the 127 VORPiest pitcher in the MLB, last year. Bad pitchers have good years (cf. Odalis Perez). Even though Hendrickson stank as a Dodger, and will probably continue to stink in the future, he was decent last year, on the whole. Not that anybody was better off for it.

Not that anybody was better off for it.

Reconsidering that line, it seems objectively wrong. The D'rays are better off for it, not because he was useful to them, but because his season was the reason he was worth anything in trade. Dioner Navarro is better off, since he wouldn't be starting out here. Probably Seo, too, since he'd be in the same ring of limbo that Hendrickson is in now, if he'd stayed. And been offered arbitration.

So, there are people who are better off because Hendrickson had a good season. Just not us.

Debating the relative merits of Mark Hendrickson tells me that Spring Training cannot come soon enough.

Bill James had a chat on BP today. This was my favorite exchange--

DL: Ernest Hemingway or James Joyce?

BJ: Hemingway for shortstop, Joyce for left field.

Second favorite was this one--

DL: In future generations, there's a pretty good chance that baseball fans hearing the name Jose Canseco will think "steroids." What should they think?

BJ: Jerk with steroids.

I'm pretty surprised that nobody has talked about the LA Times article that says The Mustache is close to extending Grady.

We like Grady. He's homespun, Southern and whatnot.

Didn't Grady Little manage the Red Sox once? I heard that he wasn't too popular over there.

I may have misheard it. I think it had something to do with the fact that everyone on the Red Sox wore "Vote for Pedro" t-shirts.

I think Grady is a good fit for LA. The fans here care, but don't care enough to overanalyze every single move he makes. Its also the type of town where they appreciate his silly banter and not get upset about it. Plus he's hilarious.

216 That's a very long way of saying that Red Sox fans are asinine.

I remember back when there was a Red Sox fan with a sense of humor.

I remember back when I didn't hate the Red Sox. It wasn't really that long ago.

219 Red Sox fans did a fantastic job of making their team and fanbase insufferable. Most everybody I know rooted for the Sox like crazy to win a championship.

Now I just wish they'd all shut up and go away.

Red Sox fans succeeded in making me feel sorry for Yankees fans.

And I'm not exaggerating.

I was pretty excited when the Red Sox came back from the 0-3 deficit vs. the Yankees, and was glad they won the Series. But I doubt I'll ever root for them again.

ESPN hasn't helped matters either.

222 I think Red Sox fans did a pretty good job of alienating the country on their own. ESPN can be blamed for many, many things, but Red Sox Nation can take ownership of this one.

But they did give me great inspiration for my burgeoning novel. It's entitled "Woe Is Me, Look at Me, Woe is Me, Look at Me."

Available in bookstores in 2009.

Fire Joe Morgan on Plaschke....oh how I hate you Plaschke

http://www.firejoemorgan.com/

223

Is that before or after your textbook titled "Discourse Datcourse"?

Sushirabbit keep me in mind for that keeper league. feel free to e-mail me at rzob_2000@yahoo.com

Note to all. Sorry I brought up Hendrickson and tried to justify anybody wanting him in a trade.

And to The Blue Legend, it has been rumored that new managers are required by Sushirabbit to draft Hendrickson. Sort of hazing of rookie/new managers to his league.

227- You're setting a very dangerous precedent, there. If I had to apologize for every indefensible thing I said, these threads would take twenty minutes to load.

Wasn't it even a little fun?

Like for instance, post 210 is laughable, but these things happen.

Exactly.