Ahh! I finally get around to commenting in the previous thread and there's a new one. Yes, I get caught at this far too often as well. I will not repost it here, since it couldn't possibly have been worth saying twice. But you can read it if you want.

There's a debate? I thought the consensus was overwhelmingly negative, with the only significant dissent coming from Ned Colletti.

I expect the Dodgers to be paying a couple of million dollars per year to have him playing somewhere else in a couple of years.

As Darren Dreifort once taught us, even five years is not forever.

Limitations in mirror are much closer than they appear.

There is just no excuse for giving anyone like Pierre -- who has twice led the league in outs, and placed second two other times besides -- the sort of contract Colletti has given him.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/Outs_leagues.shtml

This is no small achievement. It is reflective of a terrible offensive approach. Speaking as someone who spent, along with my Cubs fan wife, a good part of last year wasting at bats, I say this to those hoisting rose-colored-glasses: you will see. You will see. And you will want to pierce your eyeballs with your own hands once you do.

Really, I expected more on my analysis on the Dodgers starting pitching order I posted and my favorite Taxi episodes, who knew the pull Willie Davis has over on DT. :)

I just post to get responses, we all have one goal in mind, okay two, a World Series title and less than 3 innings (on Opening Day and free bobbleheads nights) to get a hot dog at the Stadium.

4 - that should read "spent ... a good part of last year WATCHING HIM waste at bats ...".

Oh thank you, Jon.

Thank you.

however bad you think Pierre is, he does some things of value

This is one of the cool things about baseball. No matter how bad or unacceptable or under-performing he may be, he will still contribute to winning games. There will be times when we will all cheer him because he does something good for the Dodgers.

I remember sitting in the Oakland Colosseum and willing Mike Davis to hit a two-run homer in the last game of the '88 world series. And he did! This is the same Mike Davis who walked before Gibson's shot, so he had two important moments in one series. These great events occurred despite Mike Davis having an OPS+ of 55 that year.

This is what makes baseball a great game.

2 - without a doubt.

On a more pleasant note, Keith Law said today on his ESPN chat that he thinks Russell Martin is a .285/15-20 HR guy with lots of walks and doubles.

On a more ominous note, he said that if the Dodgers lose because Luis Gonzalez got 200 at bats that Matt Kemp should have gotten, Ned Colletti should be ashamed (or words to that effect).

4 Pierre's perennial prodigious out-making is, obviously, a fuction of being healthy and batting lead off, among other things. Its a counting stat.

Making outs is a bad thing, no doubt. I just wonder if sometimes we make a bit much of that stat.

So, is this the thread in which we eviscerate Pierre for one, glorious last time? Or is it the thread in which we agree to kill the Pierre-hate? Or both?

And I'm still laughing at Rob's post.

among other things

But the among other things category includes the fact that he can't hit.

13 No argument. My point is basically that the universe of potential league leading out makers is basically limited to guys who are regular leadoff hitters who stay healthy.

I would lead the league in outs, save for big league managers not writing my name in the 1 hole every day. Easily. Unless I get hurt.

My point other basic point is that I can basically use the word basically several times in one sentence.

Christ, I sound like Rick Monday.

We also know he can't rap well either.

OT: A few days ago someone mentioned putting together a DT Roto league. Since I'm not willing to sort through the thousands of comments in the past couple of weeks, could someone just email me the details (romans77 at hotmail dot com)?

Same as #2 and #9.
vr, Xei

13
Don't forget he can't walk either.

I wonder what Ned was thinking about when he said Pierre gets on base "an awful lot."

Maybe he's a master of under-appreciated "hit-by-pitch" maneuver.

I wonder what Ned was thinking about when he said Pierre gets on base "an awful lot."

He was thinking about how much people love him, which is always what he's thinking about.

Sort of interesting skirmish in the old media v. new media wars.

With a really fine title.

http://tinyurl.com/3e3m3r

According to the Dodgers website, Takashi Saito is looking for help selecting "his song." (presumably to play on the p.a. while he warms up - I didn't actually read the entry)

How about "Your Song?"

Choi=DePo
Juan Pierre=Ned

That equation is much more complicated than that but I think for some, it illustrates the main problems with both GMs.

The difference is that Ned also got to hire a manager who will play his guys (certain relief pitchers notwithstanding).

21 I've been following the Sam Smith/Blogger thing very intently.

And the DC Sports Bog is ridiculously good. One of the best merging of new and old sports media in the country. Credit to the WaPo for being ahead of the curve.

20
Now you're talking. We need to stop rehashing this old-hat Juan Pierre debate and get on to something new and interesting, something I really enjoy:

Colletti v. Depodesta!

Can't we ever talk about Muhammad Ali vs. Anti-lock brakes?

Pierre and Hendrickson v. Repko and Erickson?

Pass. No difference.

Couldn't have said it better myself, Jon, and thank you.

Now, about that Ralph Macchio movie, The Three Wishes of Billy Grier I believe it was called and it creeped the heck out of me as a young teenager. Then there was "Up the Academy."

15 That could be a conversation all its own - meaningless words sports announcers love to use to death. Three more would be: "unbelievable," "athleticism," and my favorite, "all out." I have more that I can't think of at the moment.

22
I would probably use March To The Sea by Pelican.

Say goodbye to the number 2 ranking Wisconsin.

Everybody like great players who up the numbers, and I wish we had a CF who did that, but I will take some solace and appreciate that JP is one of those first-to-arrive, last-to-leave-type guys.

I also read this weekend (can't remember where) that he is a student of the history of the game. Scoff away, but I have to admit a weakness for those two attributes. Hard worker, loves the game. It will make me root a little harder for him.

(BTW, Jon, you got my son hooked on your site! Thanks for the reply to him - he loved it).

7 - Amen.

And for all those who are worried about him, isn't Repko just one injury away from starting in the outfield anyways?

Ooh, I just remembered my all time favorite meaningless word way overused by meaningless sports announcers: "flat out." That phrase must die a slow horrible death.

If Saito uses Yakety Sax as his entrance music, I will name my next illegitimate child (male or female) after him.

So the closest comp to Juan Pierre according to bbref is Carson Bigbee.

Bigbee.

Bigbee.

Bigbee.

I just like the name.

And Carson played ball for the Ducks!

I don't think Juan Pierre should make the opening day roster. After he hits .300 from his September callup on, nobody can point to his outstanding - ahem - out totals.

28 I always thought it was strange that no one really mentions Ralph Macchio stellar performance in "My Cousin Vinny" since Joe Pesci is Ralph Macchio's cousin Vinny.

Sure, Pesci was okay, many still believe that Marisa Tomei's Oscar was a mistake and Fred Gwynne's "Two utes" was repeated hilariously for years and years but Ralphs complex portrayal of NY city boy caught in a massive injustice remains unheralded and uncommented on.

Ralph Macchio, more than the Karate Kid, though how many can say that he was replaced in a sequel by a two time Oscar winner.

Juan Pierre can't be sent to the minors without his consent.

Ralph Macchio was a great Johnny in The Outsiders.

But he stole the Karate Kid role from my man Suffering Bruin, and for that, he deserves to burn.

From the previous thread:

Dont cry to me if (Pierre's) steal sparks a game 7 rally in a playoff series.. Repko would trip over himself and get a high ankle sprain.

Career SB%:

Pierre = 73.7%
Repko = 78.9%

Bigbee is not the comparable you want, entering your year 29 season. Although, it would give us hope for 2010.

37-Macchio was good in KK. But to think you could have been talking about Suffering Bruin. So close.

BIG --- bee!

BIG --- bee!

It would be a good name to chant, especially for someone who likes to steal bases.

BIG --- bee!

Bob, I can't imagine Michigan State students rushing the floor after beating Wisconsin but I did not see the end of the game but under your guidelines can a school that has a couple of NCAA titles ever rush the floor after beating a fellow conference team that happens to be No. 1 in one poll?

Actually, with Repko being better than Pierre and Hendrickson being better than Erickson, it's not a no difference as much as a draw.

44
I would give court rushing at East Lansing in that situation a big thumbs down.

Michigan State! You're supposed to be good!

how many can say that he was replaced in a sequel by a two time Oscar winner?

Marlon Brando can.

I guess DT is going to start rooting for Larry Bigbie to make the team.

47 But by an actress?

45
Pierre = expensive free agent
Hendrickson = established veteran acquired in trade for prospect(s)

So then wouldn't Depo's Pierre have been Kent or Drew or Lowe?

The only comp I can think of for Hendrickson is Milton Bradley, but he wasn't an established mediocrity. (Sorry, I know "mediocrity" is generous.)

That's Opening Day Starter Derek Lowe!

23 My point wasn't the type of deal (trade, free agent, etc.) but more the player himself and how he comes to represent the GM.

For now, Ned won't be examined here for Schmidt, Wolf and Nomar, it will be for whatever Juan is doing here and Matt Kemp is doing is Vegas and it will be that way until something happens. Whether that's fair or not is not the issue, that's what comes with the gig.

It's not like Pierre is any better getting paid $300,000. It's not like Pierre is objectionable because he's expensive. He's objectionable becuase he's a bad baseball player.

Apparently, Greg Brock moonlights for the Syracuse Crunch ticketing office.

http://www.nbcsports.com/nhl/1084890/detail.html

I don't know about Saito's music, but Hendrickson should be using the Benny Hill theme.

54 My plan was a minor league promotion in which every adult wearing diapers gets in for free.

53
Point taken. I guess we all have our Jose's Cruz to bear.

(I really wanted to use Jose Valentin but the chance to say "Cruz-to-bear" was too good to pass up.)

Saito should come out to the Final Countdown.

My plan was a minor league promotion in which every adult wearing diapers gets in for free

"Get back into life, get into the game free!"

I really wanted to use Jose Valentin

[Gouges eyes out with a broken shot glass]

First baseball fantasy draft for me tonight. The league seems to be full of Cardinal, Cubs, and Red Sox fans.

Yippee.

60
I hope that shot glass is for milk shooters.

58 Saito songs I'm on board with:

Yakety Sax
The Final Countdown
Why can't we be friends
Turning Japanese
It's Raining Men
Poisoning the Pigeons in the Park
Careless Whispers

Huh. I certainly understand Jon's desire to end the Pierre bashing, (and I say that as one of the first to declare this the End of Days) but I agree with 2 that it hasn't been much of an argument at DT. Mostly the choir preaching to each other.

Obviously, the doofuses in other corners of the sports media world (and Dodger front office) who praise Pierre disagree with the likes of (most of) us, but it's not like we're actually talking to each other.

I see the Pierre intersection as the same as the Drew one (approached from the cross-street), but not like the mud of Choiville. For JP and JD, there wasn't (isn't) any argument about the product, just about its value. For Choi, the real argument was over something not in evidence. It was about potential, and even many of his detractors hereabouts with Tracy would just play the guy (especially ahead of Jason Phillips) to remove all doubt once and for all.

60
Don't do it! If you can't watch the players play you'll lose all your gut instincts and risk turning into one of them google-boy stat-head geeks.

63
Careless Whispers, greatest karaoke song to watch.

46 Be ready with your thumbs down.

Per the AP report of the game.

"The sellout crowd at Breslin Center serenaded the Badgers with a chant of "overrated" as the clock wound down. Students stormed the court at the final horn."

63
I also nominate:
Summertime
Beethoven's "Ode to Joy"
The soundtrack to "Koyaanisqatsi"
I Feel Pretty
How Do You Solve a Problem Like Maria?
My Favorite Things (John Coltrane version)
Stonecutters Cut It On Stone
Old Man River
Old Rivers
On Top of Old Smokey
Rocky Top
They Call the Wind "Maria"

64. Oops, that last line should have said "wished Tracy would just play the guy."

Not that that makes it any more profound...

67
I metaphorically scoff at those idiots in East Lansing, MI.

I will turn my back on them.

I have to figure out which way is northeast. OK, wait, done.

For the record, I just don't like the length of the deal. But other than that, I would certainly be on the left side of the argument. Actually I don't know if this is a Red/Blue, Left/Right type of argument.

Maybe more like Captain Kirk or Captain Picard debate.

68. Isn't that last one Mariah? Acch, what do I know?

I'm thinking "Pomp and Circumstance." Elgar needs a little love, and I just think the myth of the closer needs subtitles, for the irony-challenged.

71
Janeway!

The Juan Pierre debate is growing stale, so I won't inveigh further.

However, I would like to return to the Money Ball philosophy I raised in the previous thread. Someone posted later that he/she wished that someone who actually read Money Ball would comment on the matter. Other posters took a at stab at summarizing the theme of Michael Lewis's 2003 book.

I read Money Ball, though it has been a couple of years. But I do have the book on my shelf. So I revisited it while sitting next to my wife in the family room as she watched American Idol (gag).

The Money Ball philosophy is not just about management capturing undervalued players. It is about "outsiders . . . exposing the illusions created by the insiders on the field." (p. 62) Among these illusions are that hits and stolen bases or fielding have a significant impact on the game. Money Ball philosophers believe that, "A player's ability to get on base -- especially when he got on base in unspectacular ways -- tended to be dramatically underpriced in relation to other abilities." (p. 128) They believe, as do some of our posters, that, "an attempted steal had to succeed 70 percent of the time before it contributed postively to run totals." (p. 129) And they believe that because the "variance between the best and worst fielders on the outcome of a game is a lot smaller than the variance between the best hitters and the worst hitters" (p. 137) that a poor fielder who hits well more than makes up for his defensive deficiencies.

I don't buy into much of it, but here at least is what Money Ball says.

Maria! Maria! Maria!
Yes, they call the wind Maria!

http://tinyurl.com/2z74gp

74
You don't have to believe in anything. No leap of faith is required. All you have to do is follow the arithmetic. Facts is facts.

Moneyball the book is entertaining but not at all authoritative. It was Bill James who was first to do the math and, in my opinion, his writing remains the best exposition of the ideas.

74- Nobody thinks that hits don't have a significant effect on the game. Absolutely nobody. Most people acknowledge that fielding has a significant effect on the game, even though nobody has a great system for measuring it, or comparing players' fielding. The stolen base animus is strong here, but not without reason, and it's not absolute.

I think the first part of the line, that you omit, from your third quote shouldn't be omitted: "The math of the matter changed with the situation, but, broadly speaking, an attempted steal had to succeed. . ."

There isn't anything to disagree with, here. It's just math. It's fuzzy math, since the book is not a statistical abstract. But there's not a way to argue against it, that I can think of. Historically, stolen bases do not lead to great increases in scoring, and CS do significantly decrease expected runs scored. So much so that, except with a very high rates of success, stolen base attempts have done more harm than good.

Cubs vs Red Sox in the finals of the Simulation Madness tournament.
Cubs defeated the Mets 4 games to 2.
Red Sox over the Twins 4-3 after being down 3-0
vr, Xei

I don't know if I've ever disagreed with GoBears, but there was tons of argument about what Drew did. One side would cite some stats, for example, and another side would plainly say they didn't matter. Just like people will with Pierre.

"Drew choked in the clutch."
"Drew OPSed .900 in the clutch."
"Those are just stats."
"Grrrrr."

Pierre, like Drew, represents a clash of viewpoints, and that will affect perceptions no matter what he does.

In any case, the point isn't about how much of a debate there was on DT. The point is the vicious circle we're in: someone in mainstream press compliments Pierre, I or DT commenters point out the flaws of the compliment, someone goes overboard with the criticism, another DT commenter points that out overboardness ... repeat. And I'd just like a way out, but I don't see it.

79- If you think murdering D4P would help, just say that word and it'll be done.

Well, I could program a way out. Say some magic word, and poof! 5-game suspension. Second offense, pow! 10-game suspension. Etc.

I was actually thinking about doing something like that for all those "first post!"ers, because it's getting tiresome:

if (comment == 1 && text =~ /first/i) {
suspendUser();
}

68.

"My Favorite Things" (Coltrane version)

is reserved for

RUSSELL NATHAN COLTRANE JEANSON MARTIN JR.

But there's not a way to argue against it

Well, there's logic and rhetoric, of which on this argument we are treated to a great deal of the latter and very little of the former.

Ken, did that take you several hours to tell your comp to program? ;)

But really Jon, can the secret suspension word be "bullethead"? Am I not the only person on here that finds that mildly offensive?

You can't win, Andrew. If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you could possibly imagine.

BTW: It just occurred to me that "Star Wars" turns 30 years old this year. Crazy.

If "Bullethead" is offensive, I'm really glad "Jesus Q. Hitler" didn't catch on.

We'd have to ban interviews with Maury Wills too, then. Don't know that we have that power. And it's nothing personal against Maury.

I dislike Bullethead because it carries in it the seeds of mischief. Bullets=speed=useless stolen bases. I much prefer the more correctly descriptive JtO.

Are you talking about Jesus Quasimodo Hitler or Jesus Quiznos Hitler?

I'm kinda neutral regarding Pierre in general, but here's what confuses me: Why is it so many people will bash a player like Pierre, but praise a player like David Eckstein? Offensively, both are similar (nearly identical OBP, while Pierre has a higher career AVE and SLG%) and defensively, they both have the "good effort, good range, weak arm" tag. It seems the only real difference is that Pierre steals 4 or 5 times as many bases. The obvious response would be that Eckstein was the heart of the Cardinals' Championship last year. Weren't people saying the same thing about Pierre after 2003? Isn't that why so many teams were clamoring to get him when the Marlins were shopping him? Am I missing something?

Can you imagine how much grief Quasimodo got on the playground?

The kid had it rough enough without that name. Couldn't Frollo have named him "Phil" or something? Sheesh.

91 Pierre and Eckstein in one sentence...

:-0

91 - Who bashes Pierre but praises Eckstein?

I think Toycannon kind of likes Eckstein, but that might just be a desire to see my head explode. Canuck may like him as well, though I'm not sure if I'm remembering correctly.

Eckstein and Pierre both sit on high chairs in the Pantheon of Most Maligned by Stat-Minded Baseball Fans. In fact, the group is meeting this week, and it's Darin Erstad's turn to bring the popcorn.

Why is it so many people will bash a player like Pierre, but praise a player like David Eckstein?

What is it that makes a complete stranger dive into an icy river to save a solid gold baby? Maybe we'll never know.

94 Bush?

Leave Gavin Rossdale out of this.

Pierre and Eckstein: It's the little things that kill

7 It is reflective of a terrible offensive approach.

Is there a possibility of changing this approach? Does Pierre present enough latent skill to benefit from an encounter with a coach that can help him recognize the strike zone better, or increase his power?

Status quo Pierre is obviously a waste of space and money. But I would ask people who know baseball teaching better than me, is there any history of a hitter like Pierre getting better?

Cub fan here. Pierre is what he is... no power, lots of base hits & SB, lots of G4 outs, low K, good D, accurate but weak arm. You take the good with the bad with Pierre. I swear it seemed like infield hits and G4 outs made up about 90% of his ABs.

94

It just seems like you can't turn on any sportstalk show without hearing about all the intangibles eckstein brings to a team. Does he get bonus points for being 5'2" or something?

Pierre's closest PECOTA comparable is Lance Johnson, who had a big power spike in his age 32 season (1996). Could be he took Marty's advice, though. Is there any downside to Pierre's taking steroids? For me, I mean; obviously there'd be some problems for him.

103 Dude, you preaching to the choir...And by "choir" I mean "Pitchfork carrying Eckstein haters to the power of 50 trillion."

Sportstalk people talk about that nonsense because it's hard to build human interest stories around VORP.

Is there any downside to Pierre's taking steroids? For me, I mean

Depends, I suppose, on how much you like the nickname "Bullethead"

I think there is plenty of precedent for the question. Usual thumbsuckers like Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark have been down on the Pierre signing, probably based on money.

100
nice one.

This from Sarah's Take:

After the magical 1988 Dodgers season, every Dodgers fan should comprehend the baseball team with the most heart, and not necessarily the most talent, wins the World Series

Wait: there's more!

I feel the 2007 Dodgers can overcome their shortcomings if they have enough desire to win. The desire to win is the most important aspect of a team

We just wanted to lose in the playoffs last year boys. We should have wanted to win. And then wanted to win more than the others.

There was a letter to the editor in the Tennessean today from Bob Timmerman.

One "n". But I did check, closely.

Something about wacky scientists.

Which leads to possibilities...did DT Bob really write it and the paper omit the last "n"? Or did DT Bob write it but leave off the "n" on purpose so no one would know his views on wacky scientists?

Nah. DT Bob would never write a letter to the editor about wacky scientits. Would he?

The Pierre signing isn't worth all this excessive attention. He is an above average CF and a player who, with no question, can improve a ball club. Although, he isn't as good as some of the other options during this off-season (power-wise), he was a player we needed to get for the sake of insurance. The debate over pierre's value, in terms of money, isn't as important because we contain a sufficient account to do it. Giving him 5 years is the big problem. Hopefully, he will improve on his talent and make the signing look average because there is no possibility of becoming a steal. I think finding his role on this team to help it improve is more important than the stats that result at the end of the year. He has been known to have a positive attitude and superb work ethic, so it isn't unreasonable to think he will improve our squad.

I think finding his role on this team to help it improve is more important than the stats that result at the end of the year. He has been known to have a positive attitude and superb work ethic, so it isn't unreasonable to think he will improve our squad

If positive attitudes and superb work ethics don't show up in the stats, where do they show up...?

There is a Tom Timmerman who is a SABR member and is prof at Tennessee Tech. So I assume that there must be a bunch of Timmermans in the Volunteer State.

In hindsight, that's a really big logical leap. But the Timmerman spelling is far more common than the Timmermann spelling. I think there are more Dutch/Swedish/Danish Timmermans than German Timmermanns.

115 But you can't trust people who are so cavalier about their 'n's. People like that just don't have the sand to be acknowledged.

I still harbor a vague sense that there is some kind of half decent argument to be made for the Pierre signing. Little drips here and there. Like when Jon says that he does some things of value. Well, we know Jon doesn't believe the multiplication tables an anarchist plot against the baseball bourgeois, so he must be referring to something. I've always thought that the key to this argument was thinking outside the box. There is something to people doing the right thing for the wrong reasons.

I'd just like a way out, but I don't see it.

Oh man, Jon, I tried so hard in 8, but I obviously don't have the impact I imagine I could have, since no one took the sentiment to heart. I think the way out lies in realizing he's on our team, regardless, and we'll cheer for him when he does something good for the team. Mike Davis, with his lousy '88 regular season, is still one of my favorite Dodgers because of his impact in the postseason.

Pierre wears high socks, is fast, has a decent glove, and doesn't strike out. Those are all pretty cool things. He seems like a really nice guy, and enthusiastic. He also has never killed a child or clubbed a baby seal.

If that does it for you...Well, there you go. Good stuff. You only run into trouble if you look at anything remotely relevant to performance on a baseball diamond.

Pierre has, in his career, two years of above average offensive production for a CF, 2003 and 2004. He has been decidedly below average the last two years and the three that proceeded to two better than average years. It's possible he will be average this year, but it's not likely.

Ooh, ooh...Also, his comparable players are Orator Shaffer, Debs Garms, Ducky Holmes, and Duff Cooley.

Cool names if ever I've heard one. Downside is that they all sound like Deadball-era names :-(

112 "...a letter to the editor about wacky scien_tits_." I will refrain from tastless comments on my own typo.

{acknowledges applause}

115 Letter writer Bob Timmerma-one-"n" is from Murfreesboro.

The first newspaper company I worked for was Morris Communications. They had a paper in Murfreesboro.

124 Were they part of the unfortunate name-tag situation?

125 ??

126 Didn't somebody give you a name-tage that said "Mary" instead of Marty? I know I'm not imagining that.

Oh, do you mean the "Mary" name tag? No, that was your world-famous Los Angeles Times.

122
Debs Garms was not a Deadball Era player. He led the NL in BA in 1940 at .355.

127 I can't believe you remembered that.

Being a moron and having a good memory are not mutually exclusive, Mary.

What were we talking about again?

131 Right now, I'm struggling thru a $4 sit-and-go

132 Good Luck. I hope you're playing with smart players and not maverick jerks that ruin your night.

133 You can't avoid the latter, and really you want them in the game. They do lose more often than win, it's just when they DO win, it's painful for someone.

I am like a voice crying in the wilderness.

124. You probably refer to the Daily News Journal, which was swapped to Gannett a couple years back for a Gannett paper in Georgia.

It was one of those deals where companies think it's better to have their properties grouped geographically and don't like to have isolated ones. Which probably makes sense in some ways, I guess.

Gannett now owns most larger dailies in Middle TN, including the Tennessean. I have my doubts whether that's a good thing.

BTW, I live in Murfreesboro.

BTW and forgive my memory if I am wrong but good luck to Greg Brock re his interview and chance to come back to The Original Pancake House in Redondo Beach.

134 Just avoid low pocket pairs and A/Q offsuit.

137 Thanks a ton.

136 Very interesting. I was with Morris a long time ago. From 1975 - 1977, so I'm sure a lot of things have happened since.

137 I have a friend who LOVES the Original Pancake House. But I've never gotten it.

138 low PP can be very profitable in a tourney game. You definitely have to be careful though.

I'm guessing that since Murfreesboro is home to Middle Tennessee State University that the city is more or less in the middle of the state of Tennessee.

You have to play a little more loose in sit-n-go tourneys (from my experience). You ain't gonna see a bunch of hands.

110-If Fire Joe Morgan ever discovered Sarah's Take they would have a field day.

The Reference USA database has 30 listings for "Timmerman" in Tennessee including "Robert Timmerman" in Murfreesboro, who has an address listed, but not a phone.

There are no listings for "Timmermann" in Tennessee.

There are 122 listings for "Timmermann" in Illinois, which is the heart of Timmermann Country.

141 Its like the line at the Cheesecake Factory in Pasadena, don't try to understand it, just go somewhere else to eat.

144 I agree, in various conversations with tournament players, your strategy should be either win it or go home early, no in between, that said, always be wary of someone who splashes chips.

147 What is your pet hand (aside from AA/AK, etc)?

My problem, nay, obsession, is suited connectors like 8/9 hearts. I love turning over connectors and exclaiming "I AM A GOLDEN GOD!"

Unfortunately, you lose a lot that way too. And you fold a lot after the flop.

My experience is you try to survive the first couple rounds intact. When the blinds go up to $50 or $100, then you can win some money on middling hands and have a chance to get in the money. Not to mention if you have the best hand.

148 KJ, preferably suited, but I seem to win a lot on that either way.

Don't know how Morris was when you were there, but with the DNJ here they took "cheap" to a whole new level.

Did things like push the publisher to hire j-school grads straight out of the local university and try not to pay them much more than $5/hour. Then, instead of giving raises, they'd hire more newbies. Had a gold mine for a long time but re-invested very little.

I think the swap with Gannett was spurred by Gannett-owned Tennessean setting up a bureau here and doing a zone edition. Morris saw the proverbial writing OTW.

The swap seemed one-sided. The Murfreesboro paper appeared to be worth quite a bit more than the one Gannett traded. But Morris didn't have a position of strength, and the Georgia paper was near their HQ...which probably for Morris had the additional advantage of getting Gannett out of their backyard.

IMO if you are a newspaper, it's better if Gannett is not in your backyard. Or front. Or anywhere nearby.

The only thing scarier than the word "Gannett" is "Singleton"

143 You nailed it. In fact, there's a marker very near the MTSU campus at the exact geographic center of the state.

However, there have been rumors of goings-on at the small park-like area where the marker is located that have nothing at all to do with geography. Exploration, maybe...

I promise to withhold complaints about OBP Juan until at least May 1. However I reserve the right to post here daily that we offered Luis Gonzalez a TWO YEAR deal.

Jon, entirely reasonable post. Well done. You almost sound like Don Vito Corleone at the meeting of the five families. But I must say, the funds that could have gone into a much better player than Pierre...it's just too painful a thought to overcome. When I think of the Pierre thing I actually feel it in my stomache. The numbers don't lie. A terrible mistake has been made. We're not that good. We can't afford this.

155 We can afford it and unfortunately, the sad thing is that there wasn't really a lot out there, that doesn't mean we could have not spent any money and used the guys we have in the organization but there wasn't anyone out there to go get.

According to an LA Times article about a week or so ago, it appears that the opt out of Drew, the demands of Soriano and the non-starter demands of the Red Sox pretty much tied the Dodger hands this off-season.

Again, my problem isn't the player, its the length of the deal. But whose to say next year or even this year, Kemp and Ethier won't be playing aside Pierre for a good portion of the seaon.

150 Sucker for J/10 suited.

Juan Pierre has 810 hits in the last four seasons. Who was the last Dodger to get more than 810 hits in a four year period ?

158. How many outs in that last same four year period and who was the last Dodger to have more than that many outs in a four year period?
vr, Xei

It isn't so much that I think the Dodgers could have better players starting the season as it is that not enough of them will be with the team next year.

That might sound like a plus but I find it hard to get excited for a player that won't be around next year, maybe not even playing by the end of May of this year.

If LaRoche can play second next year and then maybe move to third in 2009,

If Nomar plays third and Loney plays first this year,

If Ethier plays left beginning in June, maybe July and Kemp plays right at about that same time,

If Repko has a great spring and actually gets to start in center until he fades if he does,

I will be an excited Dodger fan.

Babe Herman had 814 hits with the Dodgers from 1928-31.

I think the point of Jon's post here is that this "dead horse" has not only been beaten, it's been crushed, flattened, smashed into hundreds of little pieces with a shrimp fork, the pieces sold on e-bay, returned again postage due, then beaten some more for good measure. There is literally nothing more that can be said about Juan Pierre and the season is still more than a month away from starting. I believe that's what I got out of it anyway.

Whining about Gonzalez hasn't quite hit that level yet, however, but save some for the regular season?

At this point I'm much more worried about the Lakers' front court than I am Dodgers' CF.

Btw, the more I think about it the more I think Loney has to make the opening day roster. In addition to him being the best person to back up Nomar at first, they really need a lefty bat on the bench. I hope he has a good spring!

Whining about Gonzalez hasn't quite hit that level yet

At least with LuGo, we can hope he's still {or once again} using PEDs

Ouch, "LuGo," now there's a cruel nickname. ;-) (Well at least we know he's a better teammate than that other Lugo. Hopefully he'll contribute more too. If not, have at it.)

I'm sure y'all talked about this but I missed it. The Dodgers new Top Ten Prospect List from BA:
http://tinyurl.com/2pyysf

And I dig Tony Abreu's real first name.

Never even heard of their new best defensive catcher.

Mattingly's now in the top 10. Cool.

Well at least we know he's a better teammate than that other Lugo

He allegedly complained about playing time last year

I like how Brad Penny is still in the Dodgers projected lineup (of starting pitchers) in 2010. Anyone else see that happening?

168 But, but, Street and Smith's picked him as "Best teammate" in the NL West!

Anyway, it doesn't take much to surpass Lugo.

Greg Brock has fallen over giggling at the news that there will be a "Grey's Anatomy" spinoff starring Kate Walsh.

The remark about Pierre's 810 hits over the last 4 years caused me to wonder how many Maury Wills had in his best 4 years. It turns out his best 4 years for hits was '62 - '66 when he had 726. His stats were somewhat comparable to Pierre for those 4 years. He had 1 less homerun than Pierre; 66 more SB's (success rate of 78.4 vs Pierre's 73.5) but his OBP was 10 points below Pierre's and OPS was about 40 points below Pierre. Lifetime Wills OPS was .661. In that 4 year period he was on 2 World Champions and the '62 team that lost a heartbreaking 3 game playoff to the hated Giants. I think by today's statistical standards some would say that Wills was overrated yet he brought a fire to the game that was contagious. How many pitchers became unglued by his baserunning? How do you measure that? One unusual stat that Pierre has is an unusual ability to get on base via error or catcher interference. Over the past 4 years he has reached base 53 times that way. (Reaching base this way does not count in OBP%) For comparables, over the last 4 years JD Drew has reached 15 times this way; Jeff Kent 28 times; Kenny Loften 35 times; Paul LoDuca 22 times and Manny Ramairez 22 times. If you are still with me on this ponder the point that his speed just might give him some advantages that are not so easily measured. He gets to 1st base quickly, he might rattle some pitchers or cause them to alter their style (throw a fast ball when they might otherwise throw another pitch, etc).

Finally, my point-I don't think a 5 year deal for this guy was wise but he is our CFer and we know that unless he is hurt he is going to be in CF for awhile to come. Let's give him a chance and root for him. He will do better with encouragement than without it and he could be fun to watch.

How many pitchers became unglued by his baserunning? How do you measure that?

It pitchers routinely became "unglued" because of stolen bases, wouldn't we expect teams with a lot of stolen bases to score a lot of runs...?

I do think the Juan Pierre debate is one of the things that make places like DT fun to go to and participate in, in the end, we all root for him to succeed, that really isn' the issue.

Also, fans have a way of finding fault with just about anything even when things are going well. I also participate on a UCLA fan site that shall go unnamed for now and you would think that the UCLA basketball fan would be thrilled with how this season is going. Generally, they are, though there are complaints about playing time, certain player's performance, recruiting issues and yes, even the occasional criticism of the best coach in L.A. (okay at least in the top 3) Ben Howland.

And btw, a board filled with "we are great" posts, would be pretty boring.

173 Yes we would.

Last year, the Dodgers had 128 stolen bases, 2nd in the NL. The Mets were first in SBs. The Mets and Dodgers were 3 and 4 in runs scored last year. For example. Though it seemed like it had less of an affect in the AL last year - except for the Yankees who were first in runs and 2nd in SBs, but they had a lot of other things in their lineup that created runs.

174 I think this is true, up to a point. But when the same point gets repeated ad nauseum without anything new being brought up it's to me it's not much of a debate and is almost as boring as "we are great" posts or at least as enervating. ;-) And btw, I don't think everyone here is all rooting for him to succeed, I've seen a lot of mean-spiritedness to the comments on him that seem to go beyond logical. But I guess that's part of sports, when someone gets a big contract, is probably overrated, fans are frustrated, that kind of stuff comes out.

But you're right, fans do have a way of seeing the glass half empty even when things are good. It's the nature of sports fandom!

172 The remark about Pierre's 810 hits over the last 4 years caused me to wonder how many Maury Wills had in his best 4 years. It turns out his best 4 years for hits was '62 - '66 when he had 726.

62-66 is 5 years, not 4 years. Choose 62-65 or 63-66 and recalculate.

And Tony Jackson reports that the Jeff Kent watch is officially over, he did report yesterday and was present for a closed door team meeting the Dodgers held prior to their first full team workout today at Vero Beach.

First Spring training game is a week from tommorrow.

Thanks for the great post, Jon.

I am excited to be reading about baseball being played and I can't wait to listen to some spring training games. It is the best way to pass time at work.

As far as I am concerned, the worst thing about the Pierre contract is the money. We signed a mediocre player to a large contract and guess who pays for it? The fans, of course. Ticket prices went up and advertisement are heard for the Panda Express three times an inning. That makes the LuGo signing even worse. He is basically in camp to make the young guys compete for a position. So what if he just sits on the bench all year while Matt Kemp tears it up. The Dodgers can just raise the price of hot dogs or something.

At least Pierre will be in the game and be somewhat exciting to watch. Say what you will about stolen bases but they are fun to watch, as are bunt base hits. At least Pierre will be entertaining. I loved players like him growing up. My favorite player was Steve Sax. I loved stealing bases in little league. It was my favorite thing to do. Kids will love the guy as will the casual fan.

That said, all these huge contract make me sick as the buck gets passed down to us, the fans. One of these days, I hope we do something about it.

172 - Let's say we count the times Pierre reached base on errors as walks, and add 13 BB (assuming equal distribution of his error causing) figure he to his two season with the Cubs:
OBP 2006: .343
OBP 2005: .339

So he goes from mediocre to slightly mediocre. And this is in a world where everyone is going to get a slight boost to their OBP. Pierre just isn't very good. Maybe if he plays less than he will hit a little better. Maybe.

At least Jon knows what to write about on an off day when the season starts.

175 - #3 Cincinnati was 9th in the NL in runs, #4 Washington was 10th, #5 San Diego was 13th.

That was a bizarre cherry pick. There are a million example where that isn't the case.

.320 .373 .408

Pierre vs. Kemp 90th percentile 07 projection

320 .373 .571

The contract was a mistake. Are we going to let it go and move on or confirm the (MSM/scouting) stereotype of us (bloggers/statheads) being rigid and absolute? Perhaps Juan will have a great (for him) season and his intagibles(yes I said it) WILL mean something. Hoping can be less tiresome than harping.

I take pride in misspelling intangible!

171 Really? Is that a done deal?

Huzzah!

171, 185 - Great news for Walsh... and, ahem, Walsh stalkers.

But does this keep them from killing off (or at least running off) more of the ensemble cast of GA?

Too many docs, not enough story.

(Sorry, Xeifrank.)

177

My typo. The years in the data were '62 - '65.

185
http://tinyurl.com/2jzv4u

Note to Bob, I really need to check the archives before suggesting anything.

Personally, I think they just want to collect another $32.00 from me that I probably will pay.

I have a question that is meant to be without Pierre judgement. Why is it that he is so well liked within baseball circles? Coaches, players, agents (not just his) all seem to have nice things to say about him and what he brings to a team. I've seen the stats and I certainly understand why you all are concerned that he will be of zero value. But how has he hoodwinked the industry?
Don't just point at Ned, he was not bidding against himself like Malone. JP is liked in baseball... as a baseball player.
Why?

189
It wasn't as much as the archives as it was just 4-5 posts down the page!

190 Because speed wins championships and Cap Anson came up with the optimal way to play baseball.

For his career, Pierre averages 200 hits per season with a .303 batting average. According to some, this is evidence that he "gets on base an awful lot."

192
Cap Anson would not have liked Juan Pierre at all.

But that's for non-baseball reasons.

182 I dunno if it was bizarre but you're right the more I looked into it the more it seemed all over the place statistically. Mostly what I got from it is the SB can help a team's run total, or it can have little affect. Whee! I do think with the Dodgers last year, since they had very little power (and again this year), they did manufacture their share of runs and the SB did affect their run total. But in general, you're right, there's no conclusive data, or it isn't consistently important.

190 - Because the industry has hoodwinked itself by clinging to antiquated notions of value and strategy. Pierre is a hard worker who has certainly earned the professional respect of those he has worked with; he has an old-school style and he loves the game. And he puts up the numbers that Baseball Guys love -- hits, stolen bases.

Ask Theo Epstein or Billy Beane what he brings to a team. Ask Paul DePodesta. The people who are saying such great things about "what he brings to a team" don't understand what teams really need.

Actually, on second thought, I think it's the socks.

In 2006, there was no statistically significant correlation between Runs Scored and (1) SB, (2) CS, (3) SB%, or (4) SB attempts, in the ML, AL, or NL.

Can we argue about who should bat leadoff? Pierre of Furcal? Im inclined to say Pierre just because he could do less damage that way. The again, using that argument he should bat 8th.

198
I read Furcal yesterday talking about batting 2nd, and how it will be difficult for him to have to focus on "pulling the ball" to the right side to advance Pierre. What a waste.

196 Of course, the irony is that without a single stolen base, none of those guys would have a World Series title to their name.

199 If that's true, 'Head's path of destruction will extend far beyond his own painful at-bats.

It's like the pebble into the lake, except the pebble is made of terribleness and the lake is the Dodger lineup...or something.

Pierre should bad second. He who gets on to lead the inning is more likely to score. And Furcal is more likely to get on base.

A lot more likely. And not striking out is good for a two hitter who won't hit into DP's.

I'd like to formally appeal the claim of irony in 200 to the full panel of the Irony Commission. When do they next sit?

Interesting that Laroche is BA's top Dodger prospect, but Kershaw ranks higher than Laroche on the top 100 List.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5892

Oops. Sorry. Just realized that I was talking about BA and BP, so not interesting at all.

I don't think there is any dispute that Pierre is a genuinely nice guy. So the fact that he also has traditionally likable baseball skills adds up to a well-liked package.

I definitely think there is a purpose to having a Pierre debate. I just bum out that the debate is so intractible. The arguments are so simple and clear on either side, so if you have taken out a position, what's going to change it?

I do see an argument for the Dodgers signing a FA CF this offseason. I just don't see the argument for Pierre's contract. Even if it's affordable, it's unecessary. The Dodgers didn't need a speedy durable CF,. They just needed a placeholder at most.

He will have his moments, but if you like the JP contract now (having nothing to do with the human being), why would you ever stop?

206 - The money and even his lack of performance don't particularly bum me out. Last year was the most balanced Dodger lineup that I can remember, but usually there are some stinkers in every lineup. Ultimately, the idea that our GM sees something he likes in Juan Pierre is far more distressing than JP himself. J.P. is a cipher, but Ned Colletti could be curse, a prison sentence and a new sheriff in town all at once.

The Irony Commission is like the Supreme Court in that we are not obligated to hear any of the cases referred to us.

I'm not inclined to take this one. In the absence of a lower court ruling on the, er, incongruous fact described in 200, people will simply have to conclude that it may or may not be ironic.

It's only ironic if you ignore how the man who stole the base got to first base. Therefore, irony rejected.

208- It's still fair game for me to go on Fox News and denounce you as an activist, though, right? Activist passivists are what's bringing this country down!

Ah ha! Distention in the ranks. The Irony Commission is in turmoil. My work here is done.

I am still not over the Gagne article from one of the papers the other day. He said it wasnt about the money but about what then? I am more mad that he isnt a dodger than the fact that Pierre is.

--

He's disappointed that his time with the Dodgers has ended. So are the fans. So, too, is Ned Colletti, in his second season as the Dodgers' general manager.

"It's one of the missing pieces to my time here, not having him," Colletti said. "When I took this job, it was one of the aspects of it I was really looking forward to. I knew how tremendous this guy was."

If Gagne wanted to stay, and Colletti wanted him to stay, why is he here in Surprise? Is it as simple as saying Texas would guarantee him $6 million and the Dodgers would not?

"I don't like talking about negotiations," Gagne said. "They showed some interest. I guess they didn't show enough. For me, this is a great place to start again."

But, according to Colletti, they offered Gagne $4 million in guaranteed money and another $6 million in incentives. Colletti and Gagne agree that negotiations never advanced far enough to discuss how to structure the incentives.

The Rangers got him for $6 million guaranteed and another $4 million in incentives, and they recruited him hard.

"They showed a lot of interest in me and a lot of confidence in me," he said. "It's not really about the money."

212 - Fire Joe Morgan ripped Ozzie Guillen yesterday and it felt so good. Ozzie wants to get back to bunting in 2007, because that is why they didn't win last year. Classic.

firejoemorgan.com

For Nate and other draft followers:

One of the last draft and follows for the Dodgers and MLB with the new rules in place per the 2006 CBA has started playing for the Riverside Community College Athletics.

In 13 games, Nick Akins, he has the following stat line:
40 AB 11 Runs 10 Hits 2 2B 2 HR 12 RBI .250/.302/.450 3 BB 16 K

Most games he has been the designated hitter.

210 "Some people say" that, anyway. ;-)

198 Re who bats leadoff, I would guess that it will ultimately be Pierre, with Furcal 2nd, though this is again a guess. Furcal does more things with the bat (even has some "power," compared with Pierre, anyway) and would be more likely to drive Pierre home than vice versa. In my opinion anyway.

212 Not being about the money is the new being about the money.

215- Ooh; an activist passive-aggressivist. Spicy!

212 I think we talked about that the other day and it seemed like we got the feeling that Gagne was more worried about being guaranteed the closer role, where in LA he may not have been guaranteed that depending on how he performed? Not sure that makes much sense, and the Rangers have Otsuka, too, but whatever. I'd still welcome Gagne back next year if he wants to come back and proves he's healthy this year. He does a lot to energize the crowd in LA and I shall miss him.

217 I'm a passivist! Quiet, I'm meditating a new strategy.

I'm going to need exclamation point rehab if this little trend of mine keeps up. Although, maybe a good delousing head shave will suffice. Will update as news breaks.

Pierre has actually been a little unlucky the last two years. His LD% in 2005 was the highest in his career (25.1% which had to be among the best in baseball) yet his BABIP was actually below average. Last year his LD% was down, but still above average, but his BABIP was still below what it should have been (LD%+.12=~BABIP). So if we adjust his stats to their expected BABIP (.371 in 2005 and .330 in 2006) his lines from those years would have been .346/.396/.438/.834 in 2005 and .312/.350/.414/.764 in 2006. Of course his freakishly high GB% might be surpressing his BABIP, but it shouldn't as GBs turn into hits more than FBs, so his power should be down but not his AVG. In short, maybe he will get lucky next year, or maybe he will continue to play like... Juan Pierre.

Very Interesting -- Manny Acta on the proper use of statistics by a baseball manager:

"They don't lie, but I need to have enough [data] to back me up. . . . It's been proven to me that a guy from first base with no outs has a better chance to score than a guy on second base with one out. That's been proven to me . . ."

http://tinyurl.com/27xlxa

214

i actually checked how akins was doing the other day. he is obviously still pretty raw and isnt adjusting to college ball that well with the 16K in 40ABs but the power potential is there for when he does hit the ball. i wonder what the dodgers are looking for to convince them they should sign him.

Of course his freakishly high GB% might be surpressing his BABIP, but it shouldn't as GBs turn into hits more than FBs

But all GBs are not created equally. Hard-hit GBs (that are almost LDs) probably turn into hits more often than dribblers, bouncers, toppers, etc.

222- Wow, imagine if the Ozzie Guillen's of the world would learn that lesson.

224 - Unfortunately we don't have that kind of textured information. However, given that Pierre's BABIP was always above average and then it suddenly took a huge dip, it seems like it could rebound. More disconcerting is his declining ISOpatience last year, but that could have been due to the insane Cubbie strategy of not getting on base.

Wow:

Jeff Kent is so serious about rebounding from last year's injury-plagued season that he said he'd rather be in Spring Training than racing motorcycles

Maybe I'm just slow to catch on, but I'm not completely comfortable attributing BABIP to "luck." I don't deny that luck plays a part, but over the course of any entire season, I would expect the good luck and bad luck to mostly cancel each other out, with the final BABIP being mostly luck-free.

228 - Well, I don't know. The thing about baseball is that small changes lead to big fluctuations. Certain statistics are fairly stable (ISOpatience, ISOSLG) while others (AVG) are all over the place. There is a fairly strong correlation between LD% and BABIP, and players that hit significantly below their expected BABIP one year usually improve the next year. At least that is what the Hard Ball Times says. I don't think that good luck and bad luck balance out, otherwise no talent butt-clowns like Paris Hilton would be consigned to the cultural waste heaps and Andrew would have less to be edgy about.

http://tinyurl.com/2xaond

229 - I wondre if that Office Space quote works sans profanity.

There is a fairly strong correlation between LD% and BABIP, and players that hit significantly below their expected BABIP one year usually improve the next year

The reason they improve the next year, though, is that a high LD%/high BABIP combo is the norm, right? In other words, there's nothing about having a low LD%/high BABIP combo that increases the probability of getting a a high LD%/high BABIP combo the following year. That probability remains the same, right?

Not sure if "ass" violates the no profanity guideline or not. As an aside, it's interesting to watch how TV standards change over time. It is now generally acceptable to say "ass" as well as the b-word and even the d-word.

231 - LD% is fairly stable, so people don't generally go from low LD%/high BABIP to high LD%/high BABIP. Juan Pierre, whatever his failings, actually hits a lot of line drives. More than Albert Pujols for example. Now he doesn't walk and almost none of his flies go over the fence, but he does hit line drives. That combined with his speed should result in a high BABIP, but it hasn't for two years in a row. So perhaps he is due, or perhaps there is something he does that confounds the norm and leads to low BABIP (like maybe he gets out of the box slowly, or hits weak LDs and GBs).

233
And maybe his speed is declining, which would seemingly be predictable given his age

If Pierre fits the LD%/BABIP theory, hasn't his slugging percentage been historically unlucky, too? Like rain-on-your-wedding-day unlucky? It seems more likely that it's a failure of the system (line drive can mean more than one thing) or maybe he's just an exception, like Barry Zito, than that Pierre is legitimately out linedriving Pujols.

235
I agree. I can't explain the exact source of the system failure, but that just seems like a more likely explanation to me. Maybe his line drives are "softer" than average, and maybe softer line drives are less likely to turn into hits.

I'm going to need exclamation point rehab if this little trend of mine keeps up.

Anything, to cut down, the amount of commas...

235 - I don't know about that. I don't think there is more than a secondary or tertiary connection between LD% and SLG (LD% to BABIP to AVG to SLG). SLG is highly correlated with FB% and HR/FB. Pierre is among the worst in baseball in both of these statistics.

235 - Along those same lines, Pujols will probably never win another batting title, despite the fact that he is among the best contact hitters in baseball. He hits for too much power and by trying to hit more home runs, he is taking away from his LD%. The one year he did win the batting title (2003 when he hit an ungodly .359/.439/.667) he had the highest LD% of his career (22.5%, which is right in line with Pierre's career 21.8%).

239 It helps when 45 balls a year are completely uncatchable.

You realize that the worst year of Pujols's career, he hit .314/.394/.561 with 34 Home Runs! Man I am so envious of Cardinal fans.

241
Are you envious of Giants fans...?

Usually when I make things up, I know I'm doing it. But I can't find anything to back up my apparently invented theory that LD% correlates to SLG. Will keep looking when I get another chance. Irritating.

I would expect LD% to correlate with SLG primarily to the extent that LD% correlates with BA. But realistically, when LDs turn into hits, seems to me that they'd most likely be singles, whereas extra-base hits are more likely to have resulted from flyballs or groundballs.

244 - I think a lot of doubles and triples would be LDs in the gaps. It is not like all line drives are little loopers that fall in between the corner infielders and out-fielders. Power hitters will hit a line drive off the wall.

I will, now, declare victory and go home! Assuming this David fellow can be trusted. "Ground Balls Hits go for extra bases only 8% of the time. While Fly Balls Hits go for extra bases 76% of the time. And Line Drive Hits go for extra bases 67% of the time. These results seem pretty intuitive."

http://www.fangraphs.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10 (starting at comment five, though the whole thread is worth reading)

Manny Acta worships at the high altar of the bleedingly obvious? He must have an unhealthy obsession with the queen of hearts.

243- I think we all read so much baseball stuff that eventually something is going to get crosswired. I remember, absolutely remember, reading somewhere that JD Drew and Manny Ramirez came out equal in some VORP or Win Shares stat due to the difference in defense. Except, there is no stat that says that. So I guess I dreamed that I saw that stat, which is just as crazy.

Win shares uses defense

246 - Still, the point being that FB% is the true predictor of SLG%, not LD%. Especially since no one has a LD% above 30% or much below 15%. While the FB% go from slightly under 20% to close to 60%, so most of the variation in SLG% will be explained in the stat that moves more.

249 - The point being no stat says they are equal, not that no stat uses defense.

251 Drew is better two of the last three years according to WARP.

I was simply stating a fact.

Power hitters will hit a line drive off the wall

How arbitrary is the distinction between "line drive" and "fly ball" in those situations...?

223 I wonder if you and I are the only ones to actually try and figure out how Akins was doing.

I am not sure what they are looking for but more importantly, would he highly drafted this year and what is his best position.

252 - Imagine if I didn't imagine it.

Well, Marty, you old apologist. Any comment on this: http://tinyurl.com/2yv8ka

257 - He was just doing the bull dance. Feeling the flow. Working it.

Hmmm...has Andrew been to Colombia lately?

http://tinyurl.com/3budvg

Andrew Shimmin? Absolutamente no. Armin Tamzarian? Quizás.

Interesting to see Steve Henson bring up DJ Houlton today
http://tinyurl.com/yu236u
I was kind of wondering about him myself. He really seems like more of a middle reliever or spot starter at best, but I'd rather have him tossing for us over Tomko...

Did Superintendent Chalmers ever yell "Tam-ZARIAN" the same way he yells "Ski-NNER!"? I can't recall. I'm hoping he did.

263 posts and counting under a let's leave Pierre alone for awhile heading.

I personally would like to see if Repko can be a good CF but like Ned I wouldn't want to bet the season on it and hopefully that is the purpose of Pierre.

I know that is wishful thinking. Here is more of that kind of thinking. Ned hopes an outfield of Ethier, Repko, and Kemp can excell beginning 2007 but just in case he has Gonzo, Pierre, and one of those three plus Loney in right.

We all sleep better that way and then there is that June 1 trade when Ned commits to a team without so much just-in-case extras.

I personally would like to see if Repko can be a good CF but like Ned I wouldn't want to bet the season on it

Betting the season (plus four more seasons, and $44 million) on Pierre instead is worse.

I guess constant harping on a subject will eventually lead me to change my position.

I would include Bynum in a deal for Jason Kidd, if only it would stop this Juan Pierre debate for a while.

Spending $44M on Pierre is worse only if it keeps the Dodgers from obtaining and keeping someone they really need.

If the kids drive the team the Dodgers will have a hard time spending $75M on payroll over the next years of Pierre's contract.

Henson spelled Stults' name wrong. No respect.

233 et al. I'm not a BP subscriber, but Sons of Sam Horn posted one intriguing snippet of a Jean Pedro chart showing the placement of his groundouts.
http://tinyurl.com/yo2u87

I tend to agree that the overabundance of right-side groundouts is probably bad. I wonder if he's pitched inside at a very high frequency? You think the most dangerous place for him to hit is the left-side, given a 3B playing up and the fact that he can (still, I hope) beat out a number of balls that an SS can field to his right. Maybe someone can teach him to put a little Brett Butler into his hitting.

And I don't think Kid will be bringing his ex-wife with him. How good would that be?

Kid and Pippin added to the Lakers would be good but Gonzo and Pierre added to the Dodgers isn't.

Very often Ba's best tools ranking has the best defensive infielder and outfielder having the best infield and outfield arms. In the D's case, for better or worse, four prospects are involved in these "four" tools. I have seen it mentioned in recent BA material that Laroche had a good average arm. Previously, I thought he had a "cannon". His throwing arm is not the side of his shoulder injury. Where does the truth lie?

270 Good question. And what is a "good average" arm for that matter? I was surprised Hu wasn't listed as the Dodgers top defensive infield prospect.

267 And Stults is another one, like Houlton, who has gotten little mention so far as help in the bullpen or for spot starter/long reliever. He showed some good stuff end of last year...

268- That application has Pierre's LD% being significantly lower than THT has it.

Actually, all the numbers are a little off from each other.

Year--BIPChart--THT--FanGraphs
2006--20.6%--21%----21%
2005--20.4%--25.1%--25.5%
2004--19.5%--20.9%--20.8%
2003--17.9%--NA-----22.3%

That's weird. Even though THT and Fan Graphs are close, it's odd that they're not identical.

Good points Dawg.
I'm not adding much because soon it will be "new post up top" time.

I'm finally getting to see the Ryan Howard piece on RealSports. As big a fan of Howard as I was, I'm an even bigger fan now. Seems like a great kid and an even more wonderful family.

This is what Howard said about steroids.

"It wouldn't be me out there doing it [hitting]. It would be steroids doing it. I want to see how good I can be."

Sam, is the Nationals first base job really a race between "Larry Broadway" and Travis Lee? And if "Larry Broadway" loses to Travis Lee, does he kill himself?

"It wouldn't be me out there doing it [hitting]. It would be steroids doing it. I want to see how good I can be."

And Barry told the investigators to go ahead and investigate him.

Yep, folks, you can add "Howard" and "Bonds" to the list of never-used-steroids names.

I think putting Howard in with Bonds is, to say the very least, premature and speculative to an enormous degree. And pretty baseless.

Of course, I only like Howard because we're both 6'4" African-American dudes.

277
My point was that one's impression of steroid guilt should probably be independent of a given player's profession of innocence.

As baseless as lumping Juan Pierre in with useful baseball players.

279 Comparing somebody to Bonds is worse than dropping a Choi grenade.

Wars have been started over less.

Speaking of Choi, he's yet to report to Devil Rays camp.
http://tinyurl.com/ywwsgr

Choi and JtD. Obviously former Dodgers have bad attitudes.

Obviously former Dodgers have bad attitudes

Just the ones dumped by Ned

I guess Jon thinks if he leaves this post on top for long enough we'll really get it our of our systems.

Come to think of it, I don't have much to say about Juan Pierre at this point.

Not to mention that The Mustache only brings in "good character guys."

Like the ones that punch their wives in the face and get DUI's.

For Jacob L:

http://www.laweekly.com/news/news/planning-for-disaster/15676/

287 Thanks a lot! I look on the bright side. At least all my friends know something about the place where I work.

Like the ones that punch their wives in the face and get DUI's

And the ones linked to steroid rumors by their own team's owner

But Andy LaRoche is the problem, beacause he acts like he's a Major Leaguer, and acts like he belongs...Which he does.

Mustache, Oh Mustache...How I loathe thee.

Zuma Dogg is a little bit insane. Unless there's some different Zuma Dogg who spends hours of his life calling talk radio shows. Like every bleeding day, too.

275 Well, in fairness, it's a competition for first base until Nick Johnson's leg replacement comes through. And it's a competition before 46 year old AAA guy Larry Broadway and Travis Lee and Dmitri Young.

And Ronnie Belliard says he can play first too if they want. Tony Batista hasn't spoken up on the subject.

RFK opening may be somewhat delayed this year while they install they jumper-catch nets around the upper deck.

288
Regional planning is a great idea, but communities are too competitive with each other and too parochial for it to work very well.

One of the annoying things about planning is that few communities actually use the planning function the way it's intended. But then they turn around and blame planning for doing a bad job, when in fact, they are to blame.

We all know it should have been "Buttercup," or perhaps "A happier 9/11," but this is still pretty cool. http://tinyurl.com/yuadpp

And a great post if you've not read it before, though I think people here were just talking about it.

IIRC, in the bottom of the 9th in a Dodger game last year, Lofton got on base somehow or other, then stole second. Kent (I think) then singled him in with the winning run. Lofton's gone, of course. But Pierre=Lofton now, however long he's a Dodger.

As long as any games are won like this, some teams will try it, like the Dodgers this year.

Might as well get used to the idea, whatever anyone thinks of it. It's reality.

295 Genocide in Darfur, American Idol, and the designated hitter are all "reality" today.

Doesn't mean I have to like it. You know what else wins games? Home runs. Lots and lots of home runs and power pitchers. I'd like to get used to that idea.

292 and Robert Fick!

297 You know, I almost included him, but I thought I'd already gone overboard and I think he is likely to make the roster as a fifth OF/third C/backup 1B regardless of the winner of the starting job.

298 meant to include: But you make a good point.

Meanwhile, anyone seen Andrew lately?
http://tinyurl.com/3budvg

So, I'm not the only one who doesn't bother reading D4P posts.

301 Who's D4P?

Perhaps I just wanted to reinforce D4P's excellent and clever point.

Meanwhile, anyone seen Andrew lately?

Who's Andrew?

298 The situation is overboard from the start. (Really, I just wanted to type "Fick".) They could probably obtain, for a song, Hee Seop Choi.

294 Perhaps I'm feeling overly curmudgeonly tonight, but I got bored less than 1/4 of the way into it.

But Jacob L is just a dentist for SCAG.

No new post up top.

But I have a fascinating piece on Precolumbian cultures and their relationship to Juan Pierre on the Griddle.

but I got bored less than 1/4 of the way into it.

That's the D4P seal of approval at work.

306 I've been thinking about that. "New post up top" gets a job done, and it's a fine way to move things along, but it's not very cool. In the future, maybe we could have a code word, or catchphrase that lets people know there's a new post up top. My suggestion...

Cheddar Baby,
Cheddar.

JP is one of those first-to-arrive, last-to-leave-type guys. I also read this weekend ... that he is a student of the history of the game.

Pierre wears high socks, is fast, has a decent glove, and doesn't strike out. Those are all pretty cool things. He seems like a really nice guy, and enthusiastic.

I thought these comments sounded a little familiar, and now that I see D4P here.... Is this vaguely reminiscent of what people used to say about a certain 2B the Dodgers once traded for....

Is this vaguely reminiscent of what people used to say about a certain 2B the Dodgers once traded for....

Mark Grudzielanek?

311 At least that former Expo had one of his peak seasons in Dodger blue.

And, no, I wasn't hinting at Paul Popovich either.

Apparently, Mark Grudzielanek chat kills DT.

I can generally only make it to "D4" without yawning.

Well, now that nobody's posting, and it's just a few of us around, I feel like we can share how we really feel...

You know who I really hate? The Irish. They sit there, sucking down booze and contributing nothing. Sure, they have some great poets, and yeah, they know their way around a guitar. But good lord, are they lazy. And drunk. The Irish are just terrible. In the words of Grandpa Simpson:

"Naturally, we blamed it on the Irish...We hung more than a few..."

Speaking of Murfreesboro, DRays Bay was lucky to interview one it's favorite prodigical sons, David Price.

http://www.draysbay.com/story/2007/2/21/152213/030

Part two in my series of famous authors talking about famous old men's genitals (CTRL-F "Kirk Douglas"):

http://news.independent.co.uk/people/profiles/article2154795.ece

Price went to the same high school where my son is now a senior. Obviously Price has a dynamite baseball future, but he knows his way around a basketball court, too. IIRC, pretty good three-point shooter.

Vandy basketball latest SEC roadkill. Beats #1 Florida at home Saturday, then loses tonight to Mississippi State in Starkville. Figures.

But do Vandy hockey players ride the pony?

315 Now wait a second. All of my Irish forebears are spinning in their graves like a lathe. My Irish-American father introduced mme to the Brooklyn Dodgers by talking about Tim Jordan, the home run champion (I think he won with less than 10 HR's). But I'm Irish-American anyway, regardless of whether we have any power. And I am in favor of French guys like Juan Pierre as well!!

The crow flies at midnight.

The fat man walks alone.