The downside of course is that is because the front part of the lineup boasts players that should be in the back of the lineup.

The bottom of the batting order figures to be one of the best in the National League. True.

But the best of the batting order figures to be one of the bottom in the National League.

Why not just flip the batting order upside down then (minus the pitcher)
vr, Xei

1 - But does it really matter all that much? I don't think so. This is a positive thing.

Still, there could be some consistency from top to bottom in the lineup that most other teams can't boast. i.e., few "safe" outs (I didn't say "no safe outs" mind you) but pitchers will not be given much of a chance to relax. Anyway, yeah, 6, 7, 8, (and 9 when Wolf is pitching) will match against anybody's in baseball. The Yankees 1-5 will probably beat ours, however.

4 - I definitely agree that having a balanced attack is very important. However, it seems like it is better to have above average best hitters than above average worst players. It may be the case however that being top to bottom decent is better than being exceptional in a few spots and mediocre in others.

I think that Ethier will force his way up to the 6 slot and maybe even the 5 if his power comes around. My ideal would be the following if Ethier hits:

Furcal
Pierre (because anything lower is unrealistic)
Nomar
Kent
Ethier
Gonzo
Martin
Betemit

On a positive note, we could hit .280-.285 as a team.

6
We may have proven that last year. Top to bottom, I like our lineup of hitters and bench players better than anyone in the NL save for the Mets and Cubs.

It is odd that I can think of at least 6 better lineups (top to bottom) in the AL even without their #9 hitter

8 - And the Braves, Rockies and Phillies.

9 I'll take our line up top to bottom over Braves and Rockies, thank you. (For now. The Rockies have a lot of good young players with high potential, but a few are new or inexperienced.)

10 - If top to bottom means: What team will score the most runs? Then I bet the Rockies (who scored only 7 runs less than us last year) and the Braves (who score 29 more than us) will both beat us this year. If top to bottom means something else, then what's the point?

interesting graph/article at BP about Team Aging. It shows the Dodgers in the "Old but getting younger" quadrant, but very balanced betweened the two.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=226
vr, Xei

PS: The Braves lineup is still pretty good, as long as they have the two Jones'... but right now I have it as:
2B--Kelly Johnson
SS--Edgar Renteria
3B--Chipper Jones
CF--Andruw Jones
RF--Jeff Francoeur
C--Brian McCann
1B--Scott Thorman
LF--Ryan Langerhans
P -
Is that better than the Dodgers lineup top to bottom?

11 I guess my point is the Braves lineup doesn't scare me that much, but would expect them to be about even with the Dodgers this year when it comes to run scored. I was also taking "top to bottom" to consider BA and OPS for each. Obviously the Braves have more power potential as of now.

13. Why yes it is. How about the Cardinals lineup. Perhaps not balanced but I hear their firstbaseman is pretty good.
vr, Xei

Rockies versus Dodgers 2007 ZIPS projections:

Russell Martin .279/.359/.432 C Chris Ianetta .269/.358/.465
Nomar Garciaparra .288/.354/.469 1B Todd Helton .315/.432/.517
Jeff Kent .272/.352/.473 2B Kaz Matsui .277/.330/.385
Wilson Betemit .262/.328/.451 3B Garrett Atkins .317/.389/.521 Rafael Furcal .286/.358/.431 SS Troy Tulowitzki .282/.351/.429
Luis Gonzalez .248/.342/.412 LF Matt Holliday .324/.383/.521 Juan Pierre .299/.342/.385 CF Willy Taveraz .304/.353/.383
Andre Ethier .296/.366/.463 RF Brad Hawpe .283/.368/.493

.279/.350/.439 AVG .296/.371/.464

In other words, the Rockies are projected to be better than us at every single position besides 2B.

16 - And SS, where we are tied.

i think our bench is an area of extreme strength. anderson & saenz might be the best lh/rh pinch-hitting duo in the game; lieberthal looks to be a solid back-up catcher; and the other possibilities are either versatile [martinez, repko] or prospects [loney, kemp, laroche].

i trust grady to juggle these names so that our regular lineup features plenty of rest and variety.

16 I am not disagreeing but I wonder how much Coors Field figures into those numbers, not that the most of the Dodgers hit better at home than on the road last year but I am not sure that the splits were as great as maybe the Rockie players.

2B--Kelly Johnson .255/.340/.433
SS--Edgar Renteria .293/.357/.423
3B--Chipper Jones .286/.393/.536
CF--Andruw Jones .257/.352/.526
RF--Jeff Francoeur .268/.303/.469
C--Brian McCann .315/.382/.542
1B--Scott Thorman 262/.312/.426
LF--Ryan Langerhans 260/.355/.427

So the Braves have 3 hitters better than anyone on our team, but the well gets oftly dry after that. That Laroche (projected .279/.346/.535) trade was criminal.

Francoeur is horrible.

19
In addition, I would tend to disagree with ZIPS on three counts: Gonzo will bat .270 or above, Betemit will experience a breakout season or will make room for LaRoche, and Nomar will bat closer to .310 than .288, though his production will not equal Helton's.

As Opening Day approaches, I become increasingly optimistic about this group even though ZIPS and PECOTA would disagree with me. Hope springs eternal I guess...

It's interesting how much having one or two studs effects the lineup. For example, using the PECOTA projections, the Astros are predicted to score exactly as many runs as the Dodgers, and that's with three automatic outs in the lineup.

Heck, even the Pirates are only 10 runs behind the Dodgers, though Ronny Paulino has a pretty absurdly high projection.

This does make sense, since there are two ways to score runs in a baseball game, either hit a home run, or have multiple guys get hits in a row. Because of this, a strong heart of the order can make up for a weak supporting cast. The Dodgers don't have anyone who can hit the jack, and while everyone in the lineup can get a hit, a trio of Freddy Sanchez, J-Bay, and Andy LaRoche can produce a lot more often to balance the scales.

16
Without park effect translations those mean nothing. Give me some neutral numbers or road splits if were going to start comparing teams to teams. The projections are great for roto leagues but near worthless when comparing teams to teams.JMO

19 - The respective park effects of Coors and Dodger Stadiums.

Coors Field (Denver , Colorado ) Runs 1.149 HR 1.167 Hits 1.141 2B 1.006 3B 1.224 BB 1.067

Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles , California ) Runs 1.046 HR 1.194 Hits 1.024 2B 1.019 3B 0.517 BB 1.160

Dodger stadium boosts HR and BB better than Coors. It is better to play in Coors, but thanks to the humidifier, not much better.

20 The LaRoche trade depends entirely on Brent Lilbridge, who PECOTA really, really loves for some reason. It looks like the Braves have something resembling the Choi/Saenz platoon in Thorman/Craig Wilson, so it might workout in the end.

18 Keep in mind that before Marlon Anderson's magical journey last season, he hadn't slugged over .400 since 2001.

19
Building on this, there is not one position that I feel we would experience a drop-off at if there were an injury save for 2B and SS. Between Loney, LaRoche, Lieberthal, Saenz, Anderson, and Kemp, I feel that our "bench" of minor leaguers and major leaguers will be in play once one of the vets strains their ab muscle.

Again, optimism abounds in me, but I foresee this Dodger team winning the division and in the NLCS .

21 - Frenchy managed an ISOpatience ~.060 for his last 200 at bats or so of last year. If he was batting in the .280-.300 range that would make him a servicable player, unfortuantely he was batting in the .240-.260 range so he wasn't. Never the less, his raw skills are so great that he might end up making something of himself anyway.

P.S. He was very clutch last year. Fluke or no, he went .304/.339/.637 Close and Late, .318/.400/.477 with a runner on Second, .364/.382/.591 with runners on first and second and overall went .288/.326/.478 with runners on (versus .239/.268/.426 with no one on). This means that he was more valuable than it would appear last year, even though it probably isn't repeatable.

27 - and catcher. Plus two of those positions wouldn't suffer any setback because production is already well below league average (LF and CF).

21
The only skill he's lacking is plate discipline. Hopefully for him the more he watches Chipper Jones the more he'll realize how potent a weapon he can become. He was rushed right from AA and has paid the price.

No disagreements here. But he's horrible now.

29
Do you really think that Lieberthal could not put up Martin's numbers over a month or so? Save for OBP, I think that in the short term, they are very close with Lieberthal having more pop.

I think that is one of the best signings of this offseason where Henry Blanco got an absurd contract.

Pierre has a pronounced day/night split, which makes one wonder why he didn't do better in Cubland:

Pierre career
BA OBP SLG OPS
D .341 .389 .435 .824
N .282 .330 .347 .677

Pierre 2006
BA OBP SLG OPS
D .313 .356 .417 .773
N .270 .302 .358 .660

16- Just how valuable are ZIPS projections? It seems to me these projected stats are somewhat unreliable considering it doesn't seem to accurately account for things like injuries. You can't project when injuries will occur. Yes, certain players might be more prone to injuries given age or history but should how can you factor that into a projection? It doesn't seem to be an equal projection. Take two established hitters. One has three healthy years and plays to his ability and the other hitter in the same span plays two of those same years with injuries, thus deflating his stats. When healthy, his stats would be nearer his career average. Take Kent. From the ZIPS stated, it is projecting him a line of .272/.352/.473. But his injured stats of last year are factored into the projection skews the projection. Kent hasn't batted .272 since 1993. Last year aside, he hasn't slugged beneath .500 since 97. His declining stats are reflective of injury, not a decline in ability. Just look at numbers during the second half of last season. And the playoffs. Something tells me he's not due that much of a drop off.

My question is if any of the youth bangs hard enough at the door will Ned make a trade just to make a place in the lineup for that person(s). If not the other option may be to release a vet or let the fruit hang on the vine. What will he do?

June 1 celebrated like a holiday.

34 I'm wondering the same thing. I mean, would anyone really take Tulowitzki over Furcal right now? (Not that TT isn't going to be a good one, and maybe even this year, but to project for someone who has barely played in the majors to compare favorably with someone who was one of the SS's in the game last year seems ludicrous to me. I would take Nomar (and a Nomar/Loney platoon) over Helton at this stage of the latter's career any day. I would take Martin over Ianetta in a second, too.
Now, Holliday definitely trumps Gonzalez and Atkins over Betemit, Tavarez probably over Pierre, though the former doesn't have a long career to project off of (tho I think going to Denver can't hurt him) and Hawpe vs. Ethier seems fairly even.

And I agree, ZIPS doesn't seem to be projecting properly for Kent, though admittedly it's a little hard to calculate for age vs. injury recovery and "shape" vs. career trajectory.

Of course, compare our pitching to the Rockies and -- well that's another story. ;-)

And indeed, our bench is certainly another area of strength. Compare our bench's #s (ZIPS or PECOTA, if you like) vs. our division rivals.

Picture of the year -- Tommy Lasorda with my parents and Flat Stanley:

http://tinyurl.com/3xmncc

For those who don't know, elementary school kids read a book about a boy who gets squished flat and then discovers all the great things he can do while being flat. They then make a paper doll, mail it to a relative, have it go on "adventures" and then get it back in the mail.

My 2nd-grade daughter made her Flat Stanley doll and sent it to my parents, who took it on a plane ride to Seattle. They met Tommy Lasorda in baggage claim, and he agreed to pose with Flat Stanley.

And yes, my dad and Tommy Lasorda could definitely be related.

34 He's 39. Any declines you see now are almost certainly permanent. It's very, very likely he'll have the worst season of his career this year.

35
I think that he is now aware of the organizational strengths (young pitching, especially LHP) and weaknesses (young middle infielders). I think that Repko, Hendrickson, and Betemit will all be traded to make room on the roster for Miller, Elbert, and LaRoche.

37
That's weird. Before I read your description, I thought the doll was a decal on Tommy's sweater, and that he was holding his hand out to show off his WS ring.

37 - That kid's book is maybe the cutest idea I have ever heard of. It is genius from start to finish. Great execution by your parents really brings it home too.

34. It is not the job of ZIPS and other projection systems to predict injuries or playing time. Those things are out of the control over any projection system to varying degrees. The projections are only useful if understood and used correctly.
vr, Xei

37
Tommy is looking svelte there...

38
I would agree on the defensive end, but on the offensive side, his numbers were the product of injury, not age. If healthy (a 50-50 by my estimation) he seems to be much closer to 05 than 06. He absolutely raked in the playoffs.

38- Tell that to the Rocket. He's like what, 43-44?

34 - These projections have had an r of about .7 in the past, which means they explain about 50% of future performance. That isn't perfect, but it is a nice jumping off point. If I could only have the Dodgers offense or the Rockies offense, this year... I might have to go with the Rockies. I think Helton will rebound slightly, and the Rockies only have one hole in their lineup (2B) while we suffer at CF and LF, and are generally worse then them at several positions. Still, our pitching more than makes up the difference.

44
Yeah, but the Rocket uses a special Rocket fuel...

Rocketfuel Malt Liquor. Damn!

http://www.evilzero.com/NewsRadio/bill.htm

42- That's my point. People don't use the projections accurately. People use flawed projections like ZIPS to judge a player like Kent while ignoring other factors like injuries, which ZIPS doesn't factor in. As such, projection systems like ZIPS should be used with caution.

37 - Great story.

As for the Hawpe versus Ethier, here are their numbers last year:

Hawpe: .293/.383/.515
Ethier: .308/.365/.477

But Hawpe played in Coors you say, here are Hawpe's Home and Away splits in 2006:

Away: .282/.369/.454
Home: .303/.395/.571

Ethier meanwhile:
Away: .281/.336/.414
Home: .337/.394/.544

In other words, Hawpe hit a lot better than Ethier last year, and if anything Ethier's number where inflated by Dodger stadium. This doesn't take into account defense, age (Hawpe is 27, Ethier 24) or Ethier's injury, but there is a reason Hawpe has a better ZIPs projection.

46/47-LOL, "Say it ain't true, Roy"

Never thought I'd see the day when Jon broke his own rule #1.

52 - That word, for better or worse, is grandfathered in. But I use it here only when necessary.

I'm proud to report that another Dodgers fan has been born!

Benjamin weighed in at 8 pounds and 5 ounces, and is 21 and a half inches long. His mother was dilated at 4 centimeters for ten days, then they finally induced labor on Friday the 23rd and brought us our new Dodger fan. He should be attending his first game on April 9th. Despite the umbilical cord being around his neck, he seems to be doing quite well. He is just really red with some blotchy stuff on his face from being choked a bit. They even avioded a C section.

I will have him throwing long toss with his left hand by the end of spring training. He should be throwing off a mound by June. I suspect he'll have a Jesse Orozco/Julio Franco career that will have me drooling on my rocker when he gets inducted into the HOF.

Peace baseball brothers! The world is a finer place to be today.

47 Who knows it could be gone tomorrow but a great memory.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=3JpwjnMFlJI

47 Jon, please I am eating lunch. I almost choked myself to death because of hilarity.

53 Just teasing, of course.

48. Not being able to predict injuries does not make the projections flawed. Like 45 correctly stated, ZIPS (atleast) had an r of approximately .7 for hitters and all projection systems were closer to .5 for pitchers (I don't remember the exact figures, but Tango Tiger has some great write ups on the subject). One interesting thing he showed was that their was basically a ceiling or upper limit of r for all projection systems and I believe it is in the low .7+ range. A projection system with this accuracy is a very powerful tool. You cannot label as flawed, a projection system that does not or is not able to project injuries. Those things are luck/bad luck. It's the users job to correctly deploy these projections. vr, Xei

54 Congrats! What a great day for you. Glad it all turned out well.

54. Congrats, enjoy the journey.
vr, Xei

54 - Congrats! All my best to you and your family.

Greg Miller will be in the Vegas starting rotation if he doesn't make the big league bullpen, according to Grady Little via Steve Henson.

62 - Great news.
54 - Even better news! Congrats. I am glad it worked out.

54 Congrats, will his first words be "Nomah"

62 The other part of the story is that Kuo already seems destined to the AAA rotation too (Unless he makes the bullpen, though I think Dodger management believes Kuo has better control when he starts.)

3 lefties in AAA, Kuo, Miller and Elbert. Elbert is accelerating faster than Chad Billingsley, hope that isn't a rush job.

According to Gurnick, Penny now eats mostly fruit for breakfast. My grandmother and her most important meal is breakfast tenet would be very upset.

Michael: "What do we always say is the most important thing?"
George-Michael: "Breakfast"

The other day, Kobe Bryant was being interviewed and he was asked does he think he will be slowing down in a few years since he has already been in the league 11 years already. He said that he thinks there is one thing he will have to do in order to keep his performance up to his current level and that is to eat better.

He said that he has never followed any dietary plan, loves Mexican food and will occasionally down a In n Out burger (double double). Last year, before a game, he ate a pepperoni pizza.

62 - I overlooked that Kuo part, although I don't know that we should assume that's set in stone. In any case, whoever it is, when has our AAA rotation ever looked that good?

50 Maybe so (Hawpe vs. Ethier - and I think we'd all agree this season will give us a better idea of the latter) but I'm not sure I understand how Ethier's #s were literally inflated by Dodger Stadium? Or do you just mean his overall numbers were up because of how well he hit there? I don't think that should go against him, since Dodger Stadium is not exactly Coors Field.

But at any rate, it's obvious that the Rockies have the potential to have a fine lineup, that we'll all take the Dodgers' bench and starting pitching over theirs. I'm still not in love with the Braves' lineup however...

Oh, and hearty congrats indeed to 50 ! May the young android live long and prosper!

Looking at ESPN's lineup gadget at what the Dodgers got from each spot in the lineup last year and Jon is definitely right that we will be solid.

6. .273/.341/.419/.760 Russell Martin .279/.359/.432/.791
7. .296/.348/.462/.810 Andre Ethier .296/.366/.463/.829
8. .265/.341/.401/.742 Wilson Betemit .262/.328/.451/.779

Of course:
5. .311/.385/.537/.921 Luis Gonzalez .248/.342/.412/754

Gonzo is such a cipher that 400 at bats from him in LF and the #5 would probably doom us. To be fair, Bill James projects him to be at 276/.372/.461/.833, which wouldn't be a complete disaster.

68
If this is indeed our rotation in AAA, then I would put good money on those three vs. any of the pitchers that the Nats are currently considering for their 2-5 slots.

71 "which wouldn't be a complete disaster." And this is what I'm hoping for from Gonzalez. Sad, isn't it? ;-)

68 Wow. Yeah, even in the thin air and inflated stats of the PCL, I can imagine those guys will put up some good numbers and the 51s will scare their opponents for awhile, before one or two of them get called up after Hendy and Tomko are traded. {he says, hands together in prayer, eyes looking skyward)

69 - Dodger stadium is a hitter's park, and thanks to the humidifier, Coor's field isn't the worst park to pitch in ever. All told, the parks aren't different enough to explain how much better Hawpe was in 2006. I think/hope/believe Ethier will be better in the long run, but Hawpe is a better bet for 2007.

Bill James projects him to be at 276/.372/.461/.833

What's his rationale for a .005/.020/.017 increase relative to LuGo's 2006 numbers...?

BP's projections on Dodgers lineup

Order Name AVG OBP SLG
1 Pierre .290 .337 .371
2 Furcal .277 .350 .405
3 Nomar .289 .346 .461
4 LuisGo .269 .346 .449
5 Kent .284 .371 .486
6 Ethier .289 .356 .462
7 Betemit .257 .325 .437
8 Martin .270 .352 .410

16 Individually many positions are pretty close, given the large Standard dev. I automatically feel in any projection. But taken together they mean more and you have a point. Then I happened to look at the projs. for Nomar vs. Helton. I don't know but that feels wrong.

73 - That put him at #13 for left fielders in baseball last year, which would be good enough. The Dodgers got .317/.387/.517/.903 from their LFers last year though, so it would be a step back.

75 - Well, I guess Bill James looks at performance over several years and last year was LuGo's worst year since 1994. I guess B.J. expects him to be better than that (and better than 2005, his worst year since 1998). I look at him and I see declining OPS for 3 straight years and 4 out of the 5 past years, but Bill thinks this one is going to be an upswing.

Congrats Android and much health and happiness to you and your family.

I've got a Benjamin myself (age 2). He likes to hide things. Especially small things that he knows we use a lot, like cellphones and remote controls and keys.

In theory, it's adorable.

74 - I think hope is probably the correct choice there.

Hawpe is a fun player to watch. He just crushes the ball too. But maybe I've just seen him on his good days. I lack the tools of either the statistical or of the scouting variety to put much weight on my opinion, but I think Hawpe has the chance to become a solid outfielder which is pretty much the sense I get from Ethier (though I've seen him play less).

Projecting who is better between them seems to be a crapshoot to me. If someone offered to trade you Ethier for Hawpe would you reject it out of hand? Would you accept it without thinking about it? I don't think there is a right answer.

16 cont. Of course this is a problem with stats. that don't take into accounts predicted totals like games or ab's and perhaps Helton would beat Nomar here but thats not in your case.

I look at him and I see declining OPS for 3 straight years and 4 out of the 5 past years, but Bill thinks this one is going to be an upswing

Sounds like WhoseToSayBreMetrics to me

74 Gotcha.
But, Re: "Dodger stadium is a hitter's park"

Is this true? I thought historically it's always been considered a pitcher's park. Did something change the last few years? I recall seeing stats that showed a difference night vs. day, but overall I don't recall hearing that before. Maybe I'm wrong?

80
Good question. I think that this question was there when the Alex Rios for Ethier talks were going nowhere. Would you even say that Ethier's and Rios' ceiling are that different? I would like to see what he does over another full season when pitchers have better scouting on him.

I suspect that Rios and Hawpe are both going to be better from a power perspective, but that Ehtier will make a solid everyday major leaguer.

81 - Almost all projection system do project at bats. Here are Jeff Kent's predicted ABs: 538 (Bill James), 456 (Chone), 439 (Marcel) and 427 (ZIPS). These projections are just averages and estimates, they figure he will be out for a bit because he has been for the last few years. But in reality is that everyone is one false-step, HBP or whatever away from missing 50+ games. Kent had more ABs than all of these projections in 2005, and less than all of them in 2006. That is how the cookie crumbles.

83 - According to ESPN.com Dodger stadium was the 10th best park to score runs in last year and overall was good for everything but triples. This has not been the case in years past.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?season=2006

JtD ain't dead yet. ST noise curtesy of Rotowire:

"Joel Guzman (1B) TB 2/26/2007
Guzman has impressed Devil Rays manager Joe Maddon with his work at third base, and he'll probably get work at both infield corners this spring, along with perhaps left and right field, the Tampa Tribune reports. According to the report, Guzman had been scheduled to get most of his work at camp at first base, but that changed quickly when Maddon saw him on the field. "I'll tell you what, I didn't know he had that kind of actions at third base," Maddon said. "From what I saw right there, he could play any infield position ... I was not aware of that. What I'd heard compared to what I've seen is entirely different ... in a good way, I think, for us." Guzman had always been a highly touted prospect, but he may have just been too big physically to play shortstop, where the Dodgers were grooming him. It's unlikely Guzman will make the Rays' Opening Day roster, but he could easily earn a midseason callup, and could wind up in a four-corner role once he gets back to the bigs. "

86
Hard to believe the foul line changes would have that much of an impact. Expect it to play near the historical levels this year.

86 This kinda brings up a chicken-or-egg question... Did the Dodgers score a lot of runs last year because Dodger Stadium is now a hitter's park, or does Dodger Stadium suddenly look like a hitter's park because the Dodgers last year scored a lot of runs?

I agree with ToyCannon. Any stadium can have an off year.

Ah, yes, I just remembered that the "something" that had changed was the reduction of foul line space at DS. I do recall that being discussed quite a few times during broadcasts of various games over the course of the season. It seems it likely did have an impact, but I, too, think it'll go closer to past history this year (and the Dodgers having better pitching this year won't hurt those #s either).

89 - I don't think that is how hitter's park stats work. It is a comparitive stat and everyone hit better at Dodger stadium last year. I can see it being a little less, but the change was dramatic enough that I think there was a real change.

Does anyone know where I could find the Dodger BABiP for the team last year or does anyone know it off-hand? I am wondering if that sparkling .274 BA with RISP was a fluke like Ethier's .330 BA last year...

91 - For reference, Dodger Stadium always suppressed runs 10-20% (2001-2005) in 2006 it suddenly increased runs ~5%. That is a big enough change that I don't think it was just an aberration and Dodger stadium will be a nuetral to hitters park in the future.

Time will tell. I'd be betting against you with 45 years of history on my side but the change in weather patterns and foul line reductions might be on your side.

94 - We're not blaming the change in Dodger Stadium's scoring profile on global warming are we? If indeed it turns out to be a true change and not just an aberration then foul line reductions seem like a more plausible and powerful explanation.

Global warming caused an ill-wind to blow in from Chicago.

64. Jon's update link doesn't work for me, what does it say that makes you believe that Guo is going to AAA? Thanks. vr, Xei

If the Dodgers played a lot of days games and there were a lot of games played in hot, humid conditions, then I might be inclined to believe that the weather is affecting offense. But then there would be more home runs.

And there weren't.

The Dodgers set an L.A. record for DOUBLES last year.

95 The change in foul lines would seem to be the best explanation for a change in park factor, but it looks like the numbers bounce around a lot. Not to cherry-pick, but I decided to look at another park to see how consistent it was, chose Turner Field, and saw the home run factor jump from 0.568 in 2003 to 1.128 in 2004. Wow. I'm assuming they didn't move the fences in, so I'll join ToyCannon in reserving judgment for at least a few more years.

I would also say that Dodger Stadium's foul lines are in the same place they've always been.

The amount of foul territory is another matter.

great discussion today. i enjoyed reading through it after a long, arduous day at the business college (eh not really).

some thoughts on today's thoughts:
1- i never eat breakfest. for me, its either an extra 30mins or whatever of sleep or food and right now in my life, i need the sleep.

2- miller is going to be this year's cole hamels. oh how i hope!

3- I still dont think Elbert's going to start the year in AAA. He still has some extremes he needs to work on before trying to handle the PCL and LV.

4- I dont know if this has been discussed but the dodgers will leave Preston Mattingly at SS this year and as long until they believe he cant play there anymore. Also, since i think hes going to begin the year in the midwest league, dont look for great numbers. the midwest league that favors pitches and considering the weather wont be warmer until mid may or so, the offensive output of most players will be minimal.

97 In talking about Greg Miller, Henson says that Miller would probably start the year in the Vegas rotation, along with Guo, Houlton, Stults, and Elbert. Seemed like more of a vague projection of the AAA rotation than an edict from on high.

100 I can't believe I wrote "the change in foul lines". How sloppy.

85 I was just saying Ba/obp/slg were stats. that don't include playing time vs. things like vorp or whatever its called. But your's is a good comparison! I hope our pitching compensates and more. I'm psyched for this season and have never gone through the doldrums like this in Feb. I think the young players have really go me optimistic, and I hope this doesn't become a mirage, like it often has in the last several decades. I think there is a chance it will be like the period when the INFIELD all came up together--though this time it may be a mix of position players and pitchers.

102. Is he then ass-u-ming that Billingsley has already nailed down the 5th starter spot and that we will carry 11 pitchers?
vr, Xei

54
Congratulations. May you be blessed with a quiet baby.

I think if Little really wants to win over the DT community (although it seems the majority of DT is pro little already), he will set up a sort of 5th starter tag team with Billz and Kuo. With one going 5 innings and the other going the rest of the game or something like that.

obviously, there could be exceptions if for example one of them was aboslutely dominating a game, you would have to let that pitcher keep going if he is in the zone. Something like this could keep the total IP down for both pitches and help keep them fresh as the season approaches the dog days of august. it would be a neat little idea that i wouldnt mind seeing implemented.

If the Dodgers really want to make the DT community happy, the back of one player's jersey will read:

郭泓志
56

in the first picture from todays photos on dodgers.com, can anyone tell who all the minor leaguers are?

the first, pasty fellow on the left is greg miller. the 6th guy down is tony abreu. i cant tell the rest :(

107. Guo seems to be quite a bit less effective as a relief pitcher than a starter. Guo's options.

1. 5th starter with the Dodgers.
2. Starter at AAA.
3. Relief pitcher with the Dodgers.

Skinny on #1: He needs to beat out Billingsley (+ scrap heap) in spring training.

Skinny on #2: If his innings are limited, why waste them at AAA. Would be more palatable if he gets called up quickly to replace a pitcher who was traded, got hurt or was struggling (not that we want any of our starters to get hurt or struggle).

Skinny on #3: ineffective as relief pitcher, has trouble loosening up his arm in the bullpen in relief. But atleast his innings aren't wasted away in AAA.

jmho
vr, Xei

Elbert is the guy with the hat.

4th guy is Matt White, basing off the jersey behind him.

Guy next to Miller, I believe is Travis Smith. Also basing this off the jersey behind him.

110

in my scenario, Kuo can approach the game as a starting pitcher. He is just not starting the game. Or, he could start the game and chad can come in and pitch the last 4 innings.

Guy at the end might be Larry Bigbie.

nate, have you gotten into eller yet? What concentration of business are you doing?

I really wish that Grits would move Martin up to the 2nd spot in the lineup. Isn't Martin the prototypical #2 hitter; he's a good contact hitter, gets on base at an above average clip, and has decent speed (more importantly, he's a good baserunner). When Luis Gonzalez is hitting .240 in May, is Grits going to move him down in the lineup? Will Kemp be called up to replace him. Sadly, a lot of the offense's production is going to lie the shoulders of Juan Pierre since he'll be accumulating the 2nd most plate appearances on the team.

105 I couldn't tell. The speculation on the AAA rotation didn't explicitly make any assumptions about the big league rotation. I gave you basically everything Henson wrote except for the first names of the pitchers.

116
I don't think that Grady will have any trouble moving Gonzo down if he is hitting .240. He seemed to have no problem kicking Lugo to the curb for portions of September.

114. Forward thinking like that doesn't cut it in big league baseball. :)

117. In other words it was a pretty useless (filler) article.

vr, Xei

116 - "When Luis Gonzalez is hitting .240 in May, is Grits going to move him down in the lineup? Will Kemp be called up to replace him."

I could see that happening.

I am not really bothered by Martin not batting second. Furcal could be a distraction for the No. 2 hitter at times.

It's not as if Martin isn't a better hitter than Pierre, but the big deal is Pierre's place on the roster, not his place in the lineup.

119 - The link works, so I'm not sure why you can't open it.

118 The difference is that there was nowhere for Lugo to actually go in the first place. Maybe Grady gets some credit for not benching Betemit, but that's about it. One of the many reasons why that move was questioned is that there was simply nowhere for him to go.

It's not as if Martin isn't a better hitter than Pierre, but the big deal is Pierre's place on the roster, not his place in the lineup.
I disagree with you there. If Pierre was making the league minimum and batting 8th, he would be an asset because of his ability on defense. Pierre steals bases at a fairly good rate and should be able to post at least a .340 on base percentage (ok, maybe I'm reaching here). To have that kind player at the bottom of the lineup would be a positive and show what kind of depth the Dodgers have throughout their lineup. Unfortunately, the Dodgers are likely going to get below average production from one of their corner outfielders, and possibly both. The money is one of the reasons why he's a detriment to the team though. There were cheaper alternatives than Pierre, but nobody available was clearly better. The problem I have with the deal is the length of the contract. Not are we going to pay Pierre a few years past his prime, but we will effectively be blocking prospects. If Pierre loses his speed in the two years his contract, he'll be impossible to move.

A Las Vegas starting rotation of Kuo, Stults, Miller, Elbert and Houlton would be the best starting five the Dodgers have ever had at AAA. They are all young; three of them have had at least some success at the major league level; Kuo, Miller, and Elbert may be future MLB stars. And (dare I say?)one, or perhaps two, of them may be better than their counterparts in the LA Dodger rotation.

Unrelated thought but good time to purge: A couple of weeks ago, a poster here challenged the description of Money Ball as a "philosophy." He was right. It is a hang-up. Sorry, bean counters.

nate, have you gotten into eller yet? What concentration of business are you doing?

yes I'm currently in Eller. Right now, Im a marketing major.

I do not really understand why we would have anyone of worth pitch in Vegas.

126

traditionally, dodgers like to challenge their prospects. Pitching in vegas in the PCL would seem to be the most adverse condition a minor league pitcher could be placed in.

123 - Since your post ends up talking more about Pierre's contract, I think we do agree.

After two are out in the first inning, Pierre will be at the bottom of the lineup like so many people want.

126

for example, jackson couldnt handle vegas and he is still struggling to hold a spot somewhere in the majors. Billingsley handled vegas and he held his own in the majors. Broxton dominated vegas and he was awesome last year.

True, but it seems to me that AAA is becoming more and more a place for AAAA players, while all the talent is in AA. AAA is used more as a small stepping stone until they are promoted.

I agree with Nate and others who are questioning why Elbert would go to Vegas when he still has a lot of control issues.

130

Even so, the competition in AAA is still better then the competition in the leaguers lower it. Even though AAA might not hold the more talented players, you still have savvy old vets and players that get by because of knowledge and experiences instead of talent. Its good for prospects to face multiple types of adversity and overcoming them before sticking in the majors.

Not to mention the 11 home runs in 60 innings.

It would be interesting to see what kind of effect overpromotion has on a player.

133

i might be more inclined to believe that is a serious problem if he also was homerun happy in low A and high A. It seems to be an abberation on small sample size. Even so, i hope he straightens that out before going to vegas.

Did anyone notice the bit by Henson regarding the potential 2 BILLION dollars pitcher Matt White might be worth? Something tells me McCourt should consider making Mr. White a partner. Something, anything.

135
Yeah, Jon had a piece about that. Quite the lucky investment.

Tell me someone looked at the link on 55

Its one thing to read it, its another to hear and see Phil Hartman sell malt liquor.

133. Elbert kept the ball in the park in Vero Beach, a haven for RH power hitters, so I'm not to worried about that.

I always assumed Elbert would start this year in AA, and likely spend the whole season there as Billingsley did in 2005. I don't think Elbert's been rushed at all - people have said that he's on Billingsley's path, except that he isn't. Billinglsey spent his first full season split between high-A and AA, striking everyone out and walking too many guys. Elbert spent his first full season in low-A, and then last year split time between high-A and AA striking everyone out and walking too many guys.

From everything I've read and heard, Elbert has a lot of confidence in his fastball and judging by his strikeout rates and flyball numbers it seems like his enjoying working his heat up in the zone. This year he needs to develope command of his slider (like Billingsley did in 05 with his curve) and work on keeping his fastball lower in the strikezone. I'm guessing that in the process his K/9 and H/9 will regress somewhat but his BB/9 will improve (again, like Billingsley in 2005).

I don't think Elbert will see Las Vegas this season unless he makes these adjustments very quickly.

Geez, how did I miss that? I can't be losing my marbles already. Not good when you're 24 and already losing your memory.

139 If my memory is correct, after Catherine (played by the lovely Khandi Alexander) hears Bill do the first two spots, she writes the third one so Bill could be more "urban."

Or do you think smelly feet really sell product.

from ITD

In regards to the trade winds that you're asking about, it's safe to say they're always blowing this time of year. While I don't really ask Ned or Kim about what's about to happen, I do know that there are a lot of GMs talking to one another right now because teams are getting a better idea of what they have in camp, the health of their team and what they are able to part with.

so josh, you're telling me that there's a chance tomdrickson will be gone?

I snagged Miller as a throw-in in a trade I made in my fantasy baseball league, so I'm thrilled he's going to start again. Our player has lots of keeper space for minor leaguers, so I'll be able to stash Miller until he's (if everything goes well) ready for the big leagues.

WWSH

139
Welcome to my world and I am younger than you. But at least I know why mine sucks.

141
Oh please, oh please, oh please...

Someone over at ItD slapped Brock with a glove.

145 I haven't been over there. I'm gonna sneak over and post once in awhile, Superninja Steve style.

And a great big congratulations to 54

Random thought-It has been over a year since I moved from L.A. to the S.F. bay area. I have since forgotten how partial or impartial the local radio programs are in L.A. toward the Dodgers. Up here in Giant land, local radio seems forever forgiving of the Giants, always apologetic for the teams short comings. (Benitez aside) Listening to Giant talk is hard enough without all the praise heaped upon everyone, how even journeymen players like Tyler Walker and Jamie Wright, with there filthy stuff, are going to turn a corner and day. I don't remember Dodger talk radio quite that bad, in fact I seem to recall some stations being negative nellies at times. Am I right or has my memory failed me once again?

with THEIR filthy stuff-should have paid attention during my 4th grade english class

147
I cannot listen to the sports talk here in the Bay Area. They do not even seem to know that Oakland has professional sports. The A's were a far better team than the Giants, but you would never know that listening to all those Giant homers and their love for all things Sabean.

And I am not even going to get into the 49ers.

If you guys are talking about KNBR 680...Good Lord that is one terrible radio station. The hosts make Vic the Brick down in Los Angeles sound good. The entire station is worthless.

Yeah, KNBR 680 is the worst. Gary Radnich is painful to listen to.

When did Jamie Wright ever have filthy stuff?

Tyler Walker is held in absurdly high esteem by Giants fans because he was born in San Francisco.

147, 149

What about the local (Bay Area) commentators? Everytime I go back home for summer/winter vacation I realize how much I'd rather listen to the Dodger/Laker/King announcers than listen to their Giant/Warrior/Shark counterparts.

I can't stand Mike Krukow when I watch the Giants/Dodgers games.

Krukow is a lot better than he used to be. He used to bash every team the Giants faced, but now at least he gives some respect to opposing teams and players.
I like the Warriors broadcasters. They are also really nice with the fans.

The Shark broadcast team is new and stinks. Thank you very much Marty McSorley.

When did Jamie Wright ever have filthy stuff?

In the Navy?

The Warriors announcers are actually pretty decent. Joel Meyers and Stu Lantz are among the worst announcers in the NBA. Kobe's wife should keep her eye on Joel Meyers. Meyer's obsession with Kobe is pretty scary.

Both A's and Giants fans seem to hate Greg Papa (former A's announcer, who is currently employed by the Giants), but I kind of like him. That's what happens when you have to listen to Charley Steiner for 80+ games a year. The Giants also have Jon Miller, who is outstanding when not partnered up with Joe Morgan.

No spoilers, but tonight's "Heroes" is excellent. It actually feels like the writers have an idea what they are doing and where they are going. It is the anti-"Lost" in other words.

One of the people who work for me referred to San Francisco as "The City." I told her that future references to San Francisco using that term would be met with disciplinary action.

158
Is she from the Bay Area? That is what everyone calls it here, but that makes more sense.

But now for something completely different:

http://tinyurl.com/2lk9f5

In "Secrets of a Hollywood SuperMadam," an autobiography due in bookstores Thursday, Gibson names two dozen celebrities she says patronized her call-girl service.

Many of the names also appear in her phone books, a payment log and other records from the case that have been unsealed by Los Angeles Superior Court and can now be viewed in unredacted form.

A review of the court file shows that Gibson listed actor Bruce Willis; former Dodgers Manager Tom Lasorda; Steve Jones, the Sex Pistols guitarist and KDLE-FM (103.1) radio jock; and the late film producer Don Simpson, among others.

159
She is not from San Francisco. And she has never lived there or gone to school there.

I have one person who works for me who is from the Bay Area and he does not use ... that phrase.

In Oregon, there's "Washington" and there's "Washington DC."

In North Carolina, there's "Washington" and there's "Washington state."

Steve Jones

The basketball announcer or the golfer...?

Does anycare if a Sex Pistol or radio jock hire escorts?

*anyone care

163
Steve Jones of the Sex Pistols.

Besides the basketball announcer is Steve "Snapper" Jones.

166
Oops, I misread that.

I don't know if they announce together anymore, but I used to enjoy the banter between Snapper and Bill Walton. Snapper pretty much disagreed with everything Walton said.

The basketball announcer
You referred to him as "the basketball announcer" rather than as a former Oregon Duck? I'm not a big fan of "Snapper". Last year, he was announcing a Clippers game with Jim Durham. Durham pointed out that Brand was having a great season and was a top 10 MVP candidate. "Snapper" laughed at Durham's statement and said "Well, I wouldn't go that far".

He also has a raspy voice.

Beaten by Bob again...

lol I like how Steve Jones was the only one who did not deny it.

Steve "Snapper" Jones played for Oregon?

Who knew?

Didn't he play for Portland in the NBA?

Wow, didn't realize there were so many of us Bay Area Dodger fans here on DT.

- I never refer to SF as "The City" but I do hear it all the time. It's annoying (and makes less sense) to hear it referred that way outside of the region, and of course there are other cities in the bay area but it makes more sense here and is less offensive. San Franciscans do still hate (but less so than they used to) hear it called "Frisco."

- KNBR is horrible. Of course, so is 90% of the rest of AM radio nationwide. But there is this weird provincialism to it that is hard to take.

- Giants fans are weird - they're either overly loyal, blindly so, or go the other way, want to rip their team apart or self-flagellate at the first sign of distress. Extremists. As far as Tyler Walker goes, maybe some fans have defended him beyond reason because of his origins, but the few friends of mine who are Giants fans up here dread the thought of him returning because of how bad he became. Of course, Armando Benitez is the anti-Christ (beyond even DT feelings on Danys Baez).

The Giants announcers in general are actually surprisingly tolerable or even good, except a couple of them do get into the homer mentality. (But then we have Charley Steiner.)

I totally missed that the Police are playing at Dodger Stadium.

And the site of the Police's last outdoor concert in Southern California was ....?

I have never met a non overly loyal Giant fan.

149/150-KNBR is indeed the worst offender. The Razor and Mr. T possess a depth of mediocrity that has no end. Yet, I still tune in, intent on abusing my sanity. I know I shouldn't tune in. But I do. It's like watching Erickson pitch in 2005. You know you shouldn't, but you can't help but watch.

The concept of a Dodgers fan defending a player because he was from Southern California is risible.

Sort of like beloved local hero Darryl Strawberry! Or Eric Davis!

174 - We've had this discussion before. When I was at Stanford, we would talk about going to "the city," meaning San Francisco. But there was never an implication that this was THE CITY, like in California or America. I certainly wouldn't call SF "the city" in a discussion outside of the Bay Area, but I wouldn't think twice about people who live there calling it that.

170
I remember one time when he was calling a Rockets game. And the play by play commentator was saying how the Rockets new GM, uses a lot of math to value players much like sabermetricians in baseball. Jones then said something to the extent of, "Well that may work in baseball, but not in basketball, I know I played the game."

181
At least he admitted that it might work in baseball...

But Steve Jones wouldn't know about basketball. He didn't play that game.

Hollywood Park.

183
I meant baseball. Blew the joke.

Oh well...

184
We have a winner!

180 I thought I was having another deja vu attack - now I know why! I should just cut and paste my post every month or so.

Btw, what do you think of the Warriors - who ages ago played in SF - reverting on occasion to their old jerseys, the ones with "The City" on it? I kinda like the retro thing, but then the fact that they play in Oakland, which is rarely called the City, and which Gertrude Stein thinks doesn't exist, makes it weirder. Of course, some people in SF think the Warriors don't exist, so maybe it all works out.

I am gonna watch Sophie Scholl now, to get back in the WWII mode for my script, and, gosh, I'm thinking any movie with ":The Final Days" as its subtitle is not going to end happily.

185
Well, that explains it. From now on, when I don't get one of your jokes (which is a frequent occurrence), I'll just assume you messed up.

178 Be strong my son, you must wean yourself off of it, slowly. Like Sophie Scholl, listening to KNBR will not end happily.

I wasn't at that show, but I'm thinking maybe with the Clash, English Beat, David Bowie.

Any of that ringing a bell?

New post up top.

174

When I took a California history class, my professor decided to spend a lecture bashing SF saying that it "has good restaurants, but no art, no music, no culture".

I promptly zoned out after the loud applause from all my fellow Southern California Cal students.

183

What's the verdict on the court rushing in Syracuse tonight?

181- I remember that too! I completely forgot about that game. The play by play guy was Jim Durham. Durham is an excellent announcer. One of my favorites (but not nearly as good as Dan Shulman).

Why do the best announcers always get paired with duds - Dan Shulman w/ Dick Vitale, Jim Durham w/ "Snapper", Jon Miller w/ Joe Morgan, Chick Hearn w/ Stu Lantz.

Stu Lantz doesn't even deserve a Wikipedia page.

174-How come people dislike Steiner so much? I've always found it somewhat hilarious how he'll be willing to make a crack against Dodger players when they do something foolish or dumb or are downright sucking.

180 On one hand, I agree with you. Here in New York, people also refer to "the city", meaning NYC (or Manhattan, more specifically). It has the same regional meaning as in the Bay Area.

On the other hand, you've seen the old San Francisco Warriors uniforms, right?

http://www.mitchellandness.com/detail.aspx?ID=2352

189-LOL, very true

I actually don't hate Charlie Steiner at all (I think some people here do but not me), I find him endearing actually. And knowledgeable. I just find it irritating how he gets overexcited to the point where it frightens me, and then overly subdued sometimes. It's almost like he can't find the right rhythm, natural rhythm, as an announcer. So sometimes he sounds like a "homer," (when calling homers) when he really isn't.

Of course, when I was a kid even Vin Scully would get on my nerves from time to time - because I wanted him to be a homer when he wasn't, when the Dodgers were losing and I wanted him to not be critical. What did I know?

195 meet 187 ;-)

Wait, new top up post. And I'm supposed to be watching this movie. Hasta luego.

I was just at the Lakers/Warriors game yesterday and they wore the old jerseys. Does not bother me in anyway, it is a part of the team's history.

Good point. Maybe Steiner should take Prozac...

Steve Jones is one of my Rock Idols. He has a great radio show here in L.A. called Jonesy's Jukebox.

[192] i'm not exactly neutral, as i'm currently enrolled at SU, but it was the last ever home game for 6 seniors, and it was a big upset over a top-10 georgetown team (and they're supposed to be our rivals, to boot), and it pretty much secured a bid to the NCAA tourney. so i think that makes it worthy enough of a court-rushing.