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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Handicapping the 25
2007-03-12 05:46
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

Is it possible that with three weeks remaining in Spring Training, only one Dodger roster spot is up for grabs? Barring injuries or trades, that seems to be the case.

Locks (24)
Only a disabling injury or a trade can stop these guys from making the Opening Day roster:

Starting Pitchers (4): Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Jason Schmidt, Randy Wolf

Bullpen (6): Takashi Saito, Jonathan Broxton, Brett Tomko, Mark Hendrickson, Joe Beimel, Elmer Dessens

Catchers (2): Russell Martin, Mike Lieberthal

Infielders (7): Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Kent, Rafael Furcal, Wilson Betemit, Olmedo Saenz, James Loney, Ramon Martinez

Outfielders (5): Luis Gonzalez, Juan Pierre, Andre Ethier, Marlon Anderson, Jason Repko

With no need for a fifth starter at the season's outset, I continue to believe the Dodgers will go with an 11-man staff - especially with so many pitchers retaining minor-league options.

Dodger general manager Ned Colletti values depth. Therefore, Mark Hendrickson could pitch worse than everyone else in competition to make the team, but still be on the roster at the start of the season if Colletti can't find a trade partner immediately. The guys who have options are the guys on the April bubble: most notably, Chad Billingsley and Hong-Chih Kuo.

I do tend to think that at least one of the 10 locks on the pitching staff will start the season on the disabled list or in another uniform, and both Billingsley and Kuo will make the Opening Day roster. Any number of others, such as Greg Miller and Jonathan Meloan, will be candidates for callups later in the season. But if the status quo continues, Hendrickson will have to really raise a stink with his starter-or-bust stance to get lopped off the roster with nothing in return.

The wild card is Rudy Seanez. He's the type of guy Dodger management could fall in love with, and keep on the team until his health goes. If Seanez ends Spring Training with a 0.00 ERA, the Dodgers could keep him and send a Billingsley or Kuo down. But I don't think that will happen. Seanez has said he'll retire if he doesn't stay with the Dodgers out of Spring Training.

On the position player side, I think things are full. James Loney has shown he won't be denied. Wilson Betemit is out of options (not to mention one of the top power threats on this particular team), and Andy La Roche hasn't taken the job away from him. Plus, don't you think that if the Dodgers were serious about trying Nomar Garciaparra at third base, he'd have seen game action there by now? Betemit is in, La Roche is tabled.

Though Wilson Valdez has turned enough heads to perhaps make the Dodgers think twice about Ramon Martinez, their respective resumes and Martinez' versatility and veteranocity (and guaranteed contract) should preserve Martinez's spot on the team, even at the expense of handing off Valdez to another organization.

Assuming (as we ultimately do in the premise of these discussions) that Rafael Furcal, Jason Repko and Marlon Anderson will be healed by the end of the month, no room on the roster remains. If Furcal takes a turn for the worse, Valdez could sneak on. In the outfield, if Repko and Anderson start out disabled, Larry Bigbie brings a hot spring and some past major-league success, so he seems like a logical enough choice to hang on while La Roche and Matt Kemp try to copy the 2006 paths of Loney, Russell Martin and Andre Ethier.

In a few cases, the Dodgers will probably leave Vero Beach having chosen older players over better players. But the roster should stay in flux all season long, so don't despair that you won't see those hot young players you've waited for.

In fact, here's a casual stab at a May 15 Dodger roster:

Starting Pitchers (5): Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Chad Billingsley, Randy Wolf, Hong-Chih Kuo

Bullpen (7): Takashi Saito, Jonathan Broxton, Brett Tomko, Greg Miller, Jonathan Meloan, Chin-hui Tsao, Matt White

Catchers (2): Russell Martin, Mike Lieberthal

Infielders (6): Jeff Kent, Rafael Furcal, Wilson Betemit, Olmedo Saenz, James Loney, Ramon Martinez

Outfielders (5): Matt Kemp, Juan Pierre, Andre Ethier, Marlon Anderson, Jason Repko

Disabled List (6): Jason Schmidt, Joe Beimel, Elmer Dessens, Nomar Garciaparra, Luis Gonzalez, Larry Bigbie

Update: To clarify, I don't have any inside information that any of the above are nursing specific injuries that will disable them nine weeks from now. I'm just figuring some people will be hurt, and these are the names I picked.

Previously: The Dodger Thoughts 2007 Spring Training Primer

* * *

Las Vegas 51s announcer Russ Langer will do the play-by-play alongside Rick Monday for today's KFWB Dodger broadcast. Langer is also scheduled to work Tuesday and Thursday as well as March 19 and March 23. I wrote about Langer last year for SI.com.

Comments (174)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2007-03-12 06:15:12
1.   bhsportsguy
That's pretty much how I see it too but then look what happened right before Opening Day last year so you never know.
2007-03-12 06:23:44
2.   Andrew Shimmin
Don't like to see Schmidt on the projected DL. Is that just a way to placate the Billingsley and Kuo camps, or do you really think he's going to be hurt?
2007-03-12 06:25:15
3.   hernari
Kuo tested positive for performance enhancing... uhh, ok maybe not.

http://tinyurl.com/35olnc

2007-03-12 07:05:02
4.   goblue1
I haven't heard anything worrisome- is there a concern with Schmidt's health? He has been pretty durable over the last 3 years... is there a reason to think hes headed to the DL?
2007-03-12 07:07:45
5.   Jon Weisman
2, 4 - Other than the fact that he's a Dodger pitcher and Dodger pitchers get hurt? No.
2007-03-12 07:10:43
6.   goblue1
I vote Penny to the DL island if we have to make a cut. At least Schmidt looks athletic.
2007-03-12 07:21:11
7.   Benaiah
My prediction is that Penny is going to turn some heads in the first month and be one of the best pitchers on the staff.

Lowe will struggle in April, but be our best pitcher for the year.

Kuo and Billingsley both make more than 15 starts.

Loney and Kemp get more than 350 ABs (400?).

Loney gets R.O.Y. votes.

2007-03-12 07:34:14
8.   Bumsrap
I find myself warming up to Luis Gonzales and Pierre. I agree with Jon and his opening day roster and I think that there is something to Nomar being on the injured list by May 15, otherwise there is no excuse for not giving Nomar some time at third this spring.

MLB has gone from 4 to 5 pitchers in the rotation. I wonder if the Dodgers could make good use of a 6 man rotation. It would protect the young arms and give the old arms more rest.

2007-03-12 07:49:09
9.   goblue1
Great piece on Ethier and Gonzo in the LA Times this morning.
2007-03-12 07:49:53
10.   ToyCannon
Not sure how accurate this is but I got the info off of the "Mike Rants" blog. The following players have died or are dying of Brain Cancer. All of them played in the 1980 playoffs.

Bobby Murcer
Dick Howser
John Vukovich
Dan Quisenberry
Johnny Oates
Tug McGraw

Maybe it was a good thing for our boys in blue that they lost that playoff game against the Astro's.

2007-03-12 07:52:36
11.   Bob Timmermann
I still remember when Brent Musburger did local sports in L.A. (before they shifted him to news, oh the humanity!) and he had a hard hitting report about whether or not "The Boys of Summer" were cursed.

There was no consensus.

2007-03-12 08:19:42
12.   Marty
I don't remember Musburger being local. Do you mean Bryant Gumbel?
2007-03-12 08:36:40
13.   katysdad
I don't remember who posted the link regading the 2007 media guide at Inside the Dodgers, but I was wondering if the two damaged files were/will be repaired. Thanks in advance for any updates on those.
2007-03-12 08:42:04
14.   Michael Green
Brent anchored sports and then news on KNXT-2. I think his news co-anchor for a bit was Connie Chung.

I can see it now ... YOU ARE LOOKING LIVE AT THE 710 FREEWAY!

2007-03-12 09:04:42
15.   LAT
Matt White? I thought he had moved on to become the new CEO of the The Slate Rock and Gravel Company.
2007-03-12 09:15:54
16.   berkowit28
13 Why are you asking here? Ask at Inside the Dodgers. I already asked Josh there about the damaged files but, just like any blog, two or three new posts have intervened since the one where I asked (only a day or so ago) so who knows if he paid attnetion. The more people ask Josh about the files - THERE - the more likely he will be to remember and do something about it.

I'll go back and nag him too after another day or two to give him time (just in case he lready is looking into it), but the more the merrier. There's no email address for Josh, you have to post in the blog - just like you did here. But do it there.

2007-03-12 09:16:30
17.   underdog
Nice write-up Jon, sounds pretty accurate to me. The one wild card for the bullpen, in my eyes anyway, is Tsao. The Dodgers seem to love him, more than they do Seanez. There may not be room for him to start the season, again barring trade or injury. But I could see them wanting to force a trade just to get him in the 'pen. Does he have minor league options?

And then of course there's Miller and Meloan. I, too, wouldn't be surprised to see at least one of them with the team within a couple of months.

Okay, which ML team is desperate for pitching? Hmm..

2007-03-12 09:17:40
18.   underdog
10 I saw piece about that in yesterday's NY Times, too, and it really creeps me out. How can that be a coincidence? As the writer pointed out, if that percentage of people who worked in an office building got the same form of cancer, someone would investigate.
2007-03-12 09:18:49
19.   Bob Timmermann
Musburger joined KNXT in 1978 worked sports for about a year, then became a news anchor for a few months, and then left to go back to CBS Sports.

Jim Lampley followed the same career path.

2007-03-12 09:22:47
20.   Marty
19 I must have blocked that out of my memory for sanity's sake.
2007-03-12 09:25:27
21.   Steve
"A Martinez" is completely useless, but at least he hasn't predicted that Jeff Kent would have eight homeruns and 120 RBIs.
2007-03-12 09:34:15
22.   bhsportsguy
16 Actually, if you look through the media guide, you will find an email address for the members of the Dodger PR department.
2007-03-12 09:37:24
23.   Bob Timmermann
I can send you a link to a pdf of a Howard Rosenberg interview with Musburger from the Times on 9/5/1980.

Or since you work at the Times Marty, you can probably just find it yourself!

Make the one person left in the editorial library find it for you!

2007-03-12 09:37:45
24.   Jon Weisman
22 - Hoisted by their own PRtard.
2007-03-12 09:39:09
25.   berkowit28
22 True enough.
2007-03-12 09:39:18
26.   underdog
My g/f works in public relations and definitely has worked with a few PR-tards.
2007-03-12 09:40:37
27.   berkowit28
23 Nice! (But should be "hoist", not "hoisted", for maximum effect.)
2007-03-12 09:41:21
28.   underdog
Valdez just drove in Tony Abreu from 2nd base on a long single (Valdez thrown out at 2nd).
2007-03-12 09:41:53
29.   underdog
28 And I guess the Orioles were just hoisted by their own Bedard.
2007-03-12 09:42:29
30.   berkowit28
27 Reference to 24, not 23, of course. Sorry.
2007-03-12 09:42:59
31.   El Lay Dave
I see the toaster is still not DST compliant. Perhaps the powers-that-be are in league with these folks who presumably are also DST non-compliant.
http://tinyurl.com/33lo32
2007-03-12 10:44:54
32.   katysdad
16 & 22 - Thanks. I did e-mail someone at the help desk link provided at the Dodgers' site and have yet to receive a reply.

I also asked here because someone in a previous thread said they were going to e-mail Josh and I hoped that they had an answer. Also, I make every attempt to avoid the boards at dodgers.com.

2007-03-12 10:46:43
33.   underdog
Good, or bad, news, is that Tomko seems to be pitching well again today.
2007-03-12 10:49:38
34.   El Lay Dave
33 It's good news if it will tempt someone desparate enough for pitching to take him off our hands.
2007-03-12 10:52:37
35.   underdog
33 Yep, that would be the "good" part of it. If not, then it means he might win slot #5 and that would be bad. But still temporary, I'd wager. Maybe the Orioles will be suitably impressed watching him today - don't they still need more pitching?
2007-03-12 10:53:37
36.   Ken Arneson
31 And here I thought I was going to have it fixed before anyone complained. I was just two minutes too late...
2007-03-12 10:55:59
37.   Benaiah
Ok, I am no math major, but something has been bothering me for awhile and I am hoping all of the geniuses here can help:

The Mega-Millions lottery consists of five randomly selected balls drawn from a bin of the numbers 1 to 56, plus one gold ball drawn from another bin of balls numbered 1 to 46. To win the grand prize, you have to match all 6 balls.

I calculate the odds of this happening as (1/56 X 1/55 X 1/54 x 1/53 x 1/52 x 1/46 = 1:21,085,384,320). However, the official odds are 1:175,711,536, which is 120 times less than what I think the odds really are. This may seem silly, but the last jackpot was 390 million, which is more than 3 times than the official odds of winning. In other words, if those odds are are correct than (arguably, not taking into account taxation, lump sums settlements ect) buying a lottery ticket last week was actually a good investment.

Could someone clue me in to why I am wrong.

2007-03-12 10:58:07
38.   underdog
Wow, Larry Barnes is playing first now.
2007-03-12 10:58:49
39.   bhsportsguy
24 Leave it to Jon to bring "Hamlet" into Dodgerthoughts.

Is it appropriate to ask in lieu of Jon's musings, "To be or not to be" if we had let Nomar and Juan go to other teams.

2007-03-12 11:03:08
40.   El Lay Dave
36 I wasn't really complaining , just taking advantage to post a link to that weird anti-DST rant.

My circadian rhythms are DST non-compliant. The degree of my non-compliance increases with my age. (Translation: I feel crummy today.)

2007-03-12 11:03:24
41.   Steve
Au contraire. The Orioles are all set with Jaret Wright and Steve Trachsel.
2007-03-12 11:05:00
42.   underdog
41 Um, yeah.

--
Matt Kemp just hit a rocket shot for a basehit.
And then stole 2nd on Paul Bako - on a pitchout.

2007-03-12 11:06:24
43.   Vishal
[7] didn't loney get too many ABs last year to get 2007 ROY votes?
2007-03-12 11:07:45
44.   Steve
If you have Jaret Wright and Steve Trachsel, what would you do with Brett Tomko and/or Mark Hendrickson? Neither of those pitchers is better than Jaret Wright or Steve Trachsel.
2007-03-12 11:08:06
45.   Benaiah
43 - No. Kemp did though.
2007-03-12 11:08:47
46.   Benaiah
45 - ROY is 130 ABs or less, Loney had 102.
2007-03-12 11:10:44
47.   underdog
Actually right now I'm not sure Tomko is worse than Trachsel or Wright, but you're right, they'd have no room for another average veteran. We'll have to find another team to pick on.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers have scored two, including an RBI single (not a bunt single!) from Pierre.

2007-03-12 11:12:35
48.   D4P
37
I'm no lottery expert, but do the official odds of winning vary with the number of tickets purchased? In other words, the more tickets purchased, the more likely someone will have a winning ticket?

The odds you calculated are the odds of a certain number combination coming up. Maybe the official odds are the odds that someone actually holds a ticket with those numbers, which vary based on the number of tickets sold.

2007-03-12 11:14:45
49.   JoeyP
I'm worried that Kuo/Billingsley will both start in Vegas, with Tomko back in the rotation.

Is that a valid concern?

2007-03-12 11:15:36
50.   Benaiah
48 - Often no one wins, and this time more than one person won. What other people do can affect how much you win, but it can not affect whether or not you win.

If the given odds are merely those that anyone wins... then wow, it is more rigged than I though.

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2007-03-12 11:18:55
51.   El Lay Dave
37 The lottery is obviously why I took combinatorics in college. The order in which the balls appears is not important. Your calculation is permutations, in which order is important. Your formula needs 5! in the numerator.

The number of combinations (order doesn't matter) of n objects chosen from a pool of m objects is:

m!
------------
n! (m - n)!

Or let Dr. Math explain it:
http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56106.html

2007-03-12 11:19:16
52.   bhsportsguy
Hey Ross, I'm sorry, you are not allowed to use any Jerry Colemanisms unless you are Ted Leitner.
2007-03-12 11:20:21
53.   Greg S
50. The odds of winning are of course YOUR odds of winning if you buy one ticket. They are not the odds that somebody will win. And the jackpot was higher than the odds because nobody had won for several weeks. This does NOT make it a good investment! If you were sure to win, $175M for $1 would be plenty good.
This misunderstanding is used by the press all of the time to scare people. "the odds of getting cancer in Houston was 20% higher this year!". Yeah, from 1 in a million to 1.2 in a million. So what?
2007-03-12 11:21:15
54.   D4P
50
Yes, I think the official odds are not the odds that you win (with one ticket), but rather the odds that someone will win, which vary based on the number of someones who hold tickets, and the different number combinations represented by those tickets.
2007-03-12 11:21:20
55.   bhsportsguy
49 You have to hope that someone will want to give up something for Tomko though we would probably have to pay some of his salary.

But having Tomko and Hendrickson pitch well this spring is not a bad thing because that is the only way there will be any interest in them.

2007-03-12 11:22:14
56.   El Lay Dave
51 Multiply the above by 46 to account for the mega ball. That is total number of possible combinations; odds of winning are 1 over that, of course. My calculator agreed with the lottery commission.
2007-03-12 11:22:54
57.   D4P
Pierre IsoD Watch:

BA: .375
OBP: .375
IsoD: .000

2007-03-12 11:24:29
58.   Steve
Hendrickson hasn't pitched well this spring, or ever.
2007-03-12 11:25:00
59.   underdog
17 Ah, I just saw that Ken Gurnick answered my own question about Tsao:
With Chin-Hui Tsao being healthy and capable of throwing 96-mph fastballs, what is his chance of making the team?
-- Aaron C., West Covina, Calif.

Management is taking a good look at him. He's been impressive lately, with his velocity back. However, having missed all of last year with injury, he needs to pitch. He's never established himself on the Major League level, and with his injuries, he has been limited to only 58 innings over the past three seasons. He has some catching up to do. Besides, it's not like the Dodgers are short of pitchers. They have the luxury of letting Tsao gain his experience in the Minor Leagues. He will probably start the season at Triple-A.

2007-03-12 11:26:18
60.   returnoffernandomania
55-I love the idea of Tomko/Hendrikson trade bait, although i dont know how much wither would yield.............help for an already crowded bench?
2007-03-12 11:26:39
61.   returnoffernandomania
either not wither
2007-03-12 11:28:04
62.   underdog
And Mays is pitching real well, too, even though there's probably no room for him on the roster, either.
2007-03-12 11:29:34
63.   D4P
Let's be clear about one thing:

There is no room on the roster for Mays

2007-03-12 11:29:43
64.   Benaiah
56 - I figured I made a mistake. Permutations, order, ah that one 6 week period where I took Statistics. Thank you very much.

53 - Ignoring all of the other things (taxes, lump sum, possibility of splitting the pot) buying a lottery ticket wasn't a bad investment that week because for one week only the amount of money given out by the lottery was more than the amount brought in. Each ticket was actually more valuable than its face price, and even though only two people won, everyone (me included) who bought a ticket actually got a good deal. I tell myself as I slink home poor.

2007-03-12 11:30:44
65.   D4P
63cont.

Room on the roster for Mays is independent of how many other players are on the roster

2007-03-12 11:31:27
66.   bhsportsguy
63 I agree, Bills, Kuo and yes, Tomko have all shown that they can fit that 5th spot so this could be Joe Mays' swan song.
2007-03-12 11:31:28
67.   returnoffernandomania
58- i was under the impression that hendrickson has looked pretty good this spring.
2007-03-12 11:32:12
68.   Greg S
54. Can't be so. The odds are 175 million to 1 that anybody will win? Would be quite a rarity! We'd only have a winner every 3 million years or so.
How big a numer if 175 million? If you were to shake hands with a line of people taking 3 seconds to shake each hand and you did this 24 hours/day, it would take you more than 16 years to get to the end. Moral of the story: you ain't winning the lottery. But you did shake hands with the winner!
64. Expected values do not always make for good investments. Good thing you get that or you'd have mortgaged your house to buy tickets! =)
2007-03-12 11:32:47
69.   returnoffernandomania
who should we say is the leading contender for the 5th spot this early into ST?
2007-03-12 11:33:25
70.   Steve
67 -- You were misinformed

A Martinez is just so useless. Why doesn't he just wear a skirt and pom-poms?

2007-03-12 11:34:06
71.   El Lay Dave
P = {Tomko, Hendrickson}
GM1 = {GMs who can be duped into thinking set P contains pitching value}
GM2 = {GMs who are desperate for starting pitching}

GM1 ∩ GM2 = {Ø} ?

2007-03-12 11:35:54
72.   underdog
Yeah - I was just thinking Mays is probably trying to impress scouts somewere so he can get picked up by a desperate team.

Martinez is useless - his defense of Baez (pitching now) was kind of nauseating. "He had a stomach ailment, which no one knew about it until after the fact. Including Baez." How can you NOT know you have a stomach ailment?

2007-03-12 11:36:38
73.   D4P
Can't be so

Yeah, I guess El Lay Dave clarified what the official odds represent.

2007-03-12 11:39:49
74.   robohobo
Why all the negative talk regarding A Martinez? I was just thinking how happy I am that I don't have to listen to Monday/Steiner today.
2007-03-12 11:39:58
75.   Steve
A Martinez on the 5th Pitcher race -- "These guys are giving it their all because they know that if they give up five runs in a game, they're at the bottom of the list."

Except for Hendrickson, apparently.

2007-03-12 11:40:09
76.   Benaiah
68 - Yeah, well the New York Times says that you are just a 10 year old who thinks sex is gross!

http://tinyurl.com/39do34

2007-03-12 11:41:04
77.   returnoffernandomania
70- i WAS misinformed, hendrickson cant bring much. maybe his best value is as insurance.
2007-03-12 11:41:12
78.   Sushirabbit
Found this interesting tangent story while trying to find the pantome for Dodger blue:

http://www.uniwatchblog.com/?p=176

2007-03-12 11:41:17
79.   underdog
74 Well I do like Russ Langer, so it is better in that sense...

---

Hm, when is the next round of cuts? Next weekend?

2007-03-12 11:44:06
80.   bhsportsguy
72 Its not that hard to believe that you can be injured and not know exactly if you have a problem. But it is a leap from that to say that was the sole reason for his ineffectiveness.

While A Martinez is getting the wraith of DT today (c'mon, his any worse than the Rickster?) I do like Russ Langer, I hope they keep him mind when Vin retires and Steiner goes to the TV side.

2007-03-12 11:45:38
81.   robohobo
75. On the plus side, no talk about the bell ringer by Rick Monday.

The Matt White billionaire story kinda reminds me of "Brewster's Millions". White could theoretically buy a Major League baseball team just so he could pitch.

2007-03-12 11:46:04
82.   Steve
maybe his best value is as an insurance agent.
2007-03-12 11:47:20
83.   bhsportsguy
I may have tunnel vision on the Dodgers but outside of the Gary Matthews Jr. story, is anything going on with our cousins from Anaheim?

I know Wood is playing 3B, Weaver hasn't pitch in a game and no one quite knows what Colon's status for the first month is going to be but the Matthews story is overshadowing all of that from what I can tell.

2007-03-12 11:49:47
84.   stevesaxarm
Interested in NL only 5x5 roto keeper league?
HR, OPS, SB, SLG, R
WHIP, SV, QS, K, HD

5 keepers in 2008
e-mail me dbartholomew@gmail.com

2007-03-12 11:50:45
85.   bhsportsguy
Andy just misses his first ST homer.
2007-03-12 11:51:14
86.   underdog
Yeah, a booming double missed a homer by a foot - wind robbed him. (According to announcers.) Good to see!
2007-03-12 11:56:51
87.   bhsportsguy
79 Looking at the ST schedule, after tomorrow, they have an off-day then a split squad game on Thursday, after that they play 13 more games in Florida so starter's innings will be limited plus they should start to pitch 4-5 innings a game.

All that being said, they will probably make more moves toward the end of the week.

BTW - Dessens is out of the 5th starter race, Diamond Leung reported over the weekend that he and Honeycutt talked and he agreed to be a middle reliver.

2007-03-12 12:03:58
88.   Marty
83 Kendrick is having a big spring, I think.
2007-03-12 12:04:11
89.   D4P
It is somewhat disturbing to learn that Dessens was in the 5th starter race in the first place
2007-03-12 12:07:38
90.   hernari
86.

hit off old friend Danys Baez

2007-03-12 12:11:15
91.   bhsportsguy
89 More in his mind than reality but I don't think the Dodgers want to move Dessens since they are not paying for him (they are paying Perez but who's counting)
2007-03-12 12:13:21
92.   underdog
Yeah, I dunno if Dessens was ever seriously considered for that 5th slot. But he does hold some value as an experienced middle reliever.

Jon Meloan is now in pitching, btw, and strikes out his first batter.

2007-03-12 12:13:29
93.   bhsportsguy
Interesting story about Kuo testing positive for cold/flu medication that contained a banned stimulant over the winter.

Hard to know what MLB would do, they might have to do something though a 50 game suspension would seem severe.

2007-03-12 12:13:50
94.   Greg S
76. Sex is gross! Oh no wait, that was slime. Sex is cool. And if you win the lottery it's probably even better. Now I get it! Glad that smart researcher set me straight.
2007-03-12 12:14:07
95.   underdog
And the second batter just hits a home run off Meloan. Some guy I've never heard of...

Oh well!

2007-03-12 12:19:31
96.   robohobo
I think Dessens' talking about wanting to start was just posturing on his part. The Dodgers aren't paying him so he could be released without any consequence. By inserting himself into the 5th starter talk, in the press at least, he comes off as being more valuable.
2007-03-12 12:20:48
97.   Benaiah
94 - Well, I think to imagine having sex on a pile of losing lottery tickets, which is the sort of thing that researcher goes for.

But in all seriousness, I get a real happy buzz from buying a $1 lottery ticket and imagining what my life would be like if I suddenly had hundreds of millions of dollars. It isn't all that socially beneficial, but it is a pretty economical good time.

2007-03-12 12:29:36
98.   bhsportsguy
When hearing your e-mail read by Tony Kornheiser on his radio show is the highlight of your week, probably means I need to get out of my office more.
2007-03-12 12:30:57
99.   ToyCannon
I like this Langer guy and could easily listen to him on the radio compared to what we currently have.
2007-03-12 12:35:22
100.   Greg S
97. I get that and I have bought tickets with the same justification. I just think that some people (not most) get so caught up in the dream of quick easy money that they don't motivate to do the work to make real goals happen. I agree that in moderation $1 if worth an hour of fun dreams.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2007-03-12 12:39:11
101.   katysdad
I sent Josh Rawitch and e-mail regarding the Media Guide pdf files that do not work and received both of them as attached pdf files within 20 minutes. Great service for someone who must be very busy.

Anyway, I still can't get the introduction to work (Josh said he'd look into it) but do have players S-Y available for anyone who might want it.

Send me an e-mail at johno@gohrs.com and I'll reply with the attachment. Please note I only have access to e-mail between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. (EST).

2007-03-12 13:07:45
102.   twerp
67, others==

Hendrickson has posted very good numbers this spring except for getting lit up big time first time out...whatever spring numbers are worth.

He had very good relief numbers at the end of last year. But small sample size.

His history isn't too inspring. But if his sports pyschologist or whatever has helped him improve, he might have some value if he's seen as able to start and/or relieve--especially as a lefty. Might even turn out the value would be to the Dodgers, however unlikely it seems.

2007-03-12 13:34:30
103.   LAT
There should be a macro for 90.
2007-03-12 13:34:41
104.   gibsonhobbs88
93 - That would sure be overkill, but you never know, MLB has never been accused of logical thinking, especially "small-thinking Bud!! 50 games for having a cold, "Sorry Kuo, next time you should just suffer and possibly end up with pneumonia."

BTW, Any DT golfers locally in the SF valley interested in golfing in a fun little tournament, only $41.50, please contact me at my email sportnut19882003@yahoo.com. It's the 10th annual that I started soon after my dad passed in 1998. It's not a fundraiser, it is just a fellowship-get together type of thing. Just seeing if anyone interested!

2007-03-12 13:58:29
105.   Andrew Shimmin
93- The MLB penalty for a first time offense against the anti-stimulant rule is a stern warning and counseling; the result isn't even supposed to be publicly released. But I think it only applies to MLB tests. If they do take into account other leagues' testing, then it would still only affect Kuo if he came up positive again (or, if he'd tested positive for it before, and the news hadn't leaked).
2007-03-12 14:01:14
106.   Andrew Shimmin
Where is it written that you have to give the state of California a dollar to imagine what it would be like to be rich? I don't do it often, but when I do, I do it for free. And my odds of winning the Super Mega Power Whammo ball lottery were not significantly worse than Benaiah's.
2007-03-12 14:03:27
107.   Benaiah
106 - A lottery ticket is wealth pornography.
2007-03-12 14:06:44
108.   bhsportsguy
105 Thanks.

Nate, don't look at the front page of BaseballAmerica.com unless you want to see what might have been.

2007-03-12 14:08:36
109.   underdog
"Kuo takes Comtrex! News at 11"

This whole thing shouldn't even be news...

108 I'm guess Luke Hochavar?

2007-03-12 14:14:18
110.   Benaiah
108 - Alex White eh? I don't remember him, but we drafted him in the 14th round last year.
2007-03-12 14:18:52
111.   Gagne55
Kuo has tested positive for stimulants.
2007-03-12 14:22:35
112.   Andrew Shimmin
111- He has in addition to the Asian Games positive, or just that one?
2007-03-12 14:24:24
113.   Marty
I heard a rumor that Kuo tested pos, oh forget it.
2007-03-12 14:25:44
114.   underdog
Sigh.
2007-03-12 14:27:49
115.   natepurcell
108

2004: david price 2006: alex white

*sighh*

2007-03-12 14:28:18
116.   Benaiah
111 - Is this the old news, or are you saying that this just happened?
2007-03-12 14:31:11
117.   natepurcell
115

i honestly dont know why we just dont offer this kids 1mil as a take it or leave it to sign because in 3 years, they are going to become top 10 draft picks anyways.

2007-03-12 14:31:14
118.   Bob Timmermann
I believe that Hong Chih Kuo needs to stop borrowing cold medicine from Mark Sweeney.
2007-03-12 14:33:17
119.   bhsportsguy
115 I knew you would understand. Also, don't forget this lost opportunity too.
Joe Savery, lhp/1b Drafted by Dodgers in 2004 (15th Round)
2007-03-12 14:34:30
120.   Dodgers49
83 - I know Wood is playing 3B

But not in Anaheim.

>>> Scioscia said Brandon Wood, the Angels' top position prospect, would play third base at triple-A Salt Lake this season. <<<

http://tinyurl.com/2xkhkt <<<

2007-03-12 14:35:27
121.   Andrew Shimmin
It's also possible (since none of the reports say for which stimulant he tested positive) that the substance isn't on the MLB list, bemootifying the whole thing.
2007-03-12 14:37:34
122.   natepurcell
119

if you go back and look through logan white's draft history, you will see plenty of lost opportunities.

2007-03-12 14:43:31
123.   Benaiah
121 - I am looking on the tubes, and the only thing I see is that he failed a test last summer. Digg doesn't have anything else, neither does the latimes, or google, and if that is it then I don't think it is anything to worry about. So um, play ball.
2007-03-12 14:49:44
124.   bhsportsguy
122 But isn't that the risk of drafting high ceiling high school seniors, especially when the slot money is not going to meet their bonus expectations.

I think White tends to gamble from around 12th or so round, dependent on the talent available. I believe he has said that with the new universal signing date in place, he thinks the draft can be cut down in half.

2007-03-12 14:50:48
125.   underdog
Eric Gagne pitched "pain-free" in throwing to minor leaguers today.
http://cbs.sportsline.com/mlb/story/10056948

Why is it that I'll feel a twinge of pain every time there's something about Gagne doing well this year? Not that I'm rooting for him to get hurt, mind you.

2007-03-12 14:58:18
126.   bhsportsguy
125 I hope Eric does well but as we know, his last few years here show you that with him, pitching pain free doesn't guarantee much.
2007-03-12 15:00:56
127.   Dodgers49
121 - It's also possible (since none of the reports say for which stimulant he tested positive) that the substance isn't on the MLB list, bemootifying the whole thing.

>>> But the China Times reported Monday that Kuo had tested positive for a banned stimulant, believed to be ephedra.

http://tinyurl.com/239haf <<<

2007-03-12 15:07:04
128.   GoBears
126. bhsportsguy
I hope Eric does well but as we know, his last few years here show you that with him, pitching pain free doesn't guarantee much.

More to the point, with Gagne, his saying that he's pain free doesn't mean much. Or maybe that's exactly what you meant.

2007-03-12 15:07:46
129.   overkill94
No more reports today, but I did get to see the Reds' stadium in Sarasota today. It was much nicer than Holman Stadium, but didn't have nearly as much charm. The guy we went to watch (Aaron Hill) got the only two hits for the Blue Jays in what was overall a pretty boring game. Nate would be happy to know that Sal's plugging along fine and will be the back-up catcher for the Blue Jays in AAA this year.

I'll get the pictures up as soon as possible, but I'm apologizing in advance for their quality - I was using my parents' old crappy digital camera.

2007-03-12 15:09:00
130.   underdog
128 Good points. I'm seriously not expecting much from Gagne for awhile. Maybe not 'til next year (when the Dodgers can resign him.) Hee.
2007-03-12 15:10:50
131.   Andrew Shimmin
127- Ah. Thanks. Ephedra is on the list, so, if MLB has the authority to take a positive test from some other body (which, I haven't seen indication that they have) then he's in trouble, since it looks like they changed the one free greenie rule (with the most recent CBA? Barry tested positive for amphetamines last year, and wasn't subject to suspension for it); first time offense is a "15 to 30-day suspension or up to a $10,000 fine," according to wikipedia, so, whatever that's worth.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_drug_policy

2007-03-12 15:11:50
132.   overkill94
For those who missed it, my last spring training report is in the previous thread including my chance encounter with Clayton Kershaw.
2007-03-12 15:19:06
133.   Bob Timmermann
131
MLB only uses its own samples. The WBC samples weren't used. IOC samples aren't used.
2007-03-12 15:25:48
134.   Dodgers49
A nice story about Torii Hunter for those of you still dreaming about 2008.

>>> Last hurrah
Hunter knows clock is ticking on tenure with Twins <<<

http://tinyurl.com/ysamsv

2007-03-12 15:28:14
135.   twerp
115. FWIW, in a Tennessean story a few weeks ago David Price seemed to leave a sliver of room for him to leave Vandy after this, his junior season.

Nothing too direct, just one of those "we'll see" deals. But it implied that if Vandy makes it to the CWS or is very fortunate and wins it, could be he'd want to go out on top...

2007-03-12 15:35:52
136.   natepurcell
135

the majority of top 4 year college players leave after their junior season.

2007-03-12 15:42:36
137.   bhsportsguy
136 The highest ranked senior in Baseball America's draft list is Matt Laporta, who is ranked 23rd but then the next one is in the fifties.
2007-03-12 15:42:37
138.   twerp
Yeah, but Price has been pretty emphatic about getting a Vanderbilt degree...FWIW.

Said a lot about the quality of the education when he signed with Vandy instead of inking a pro contract.

But maybe best to watch what he does, not what he says.

2007-03-12 16:19:57
139.   Pepperdine
37

Im not sure if this has been fully answered yet but the way you would do it is ask how many possible 5-number combinations there are from a pool of 56 if they are all chosen at random. on a graphic/scientific calculator this operation could look like nCr (C standing for combinations), and the answer is 3,819,816. This would be your chance of correctly picking the 5 numbers. Then you would have to match the golden number, so multiple 3,819,816 by 46 and you get the magic 175,711,536.

2007-03-12 16:21:55
140.   Sam DC
Nats beat writer Barry Svrluga seems to be enjoying having a blog: "We're in the bottom of the fourth, in which Cristian Guzman has a two-run pinch-hit single to make it 4-1 thus proving that anything is, indeed, possible."
2007-03-12 16:32:04
141.   mountainmover
I will be in Vero Beach from March 20 to March 29, 2007 with another rabid Dodger Fan from San Antonio. We have a condo on the beach for the duration and will be at every home and away game during that time. I will publish reports with photos every day on http://www.LAdodgerTalk.com. If anyone is going to be in the area, e-mail me at mark@uswatersystems.com.
2007-03-12 16:37:33
142.   Marty
There hasn't been a lot of toasting going on over on the TV side lately.
2007-03-12 16:42:48
143.   Jon Weisman
142 - Yeah :( It'll be back, though.
2007-03-12 16:43:08
144.   Bob Timmermann
From my brother Tom's Billiken Beat Blog:

"I also realize that an in-depth analysis of NIT selection policies is quite possibly the biggest waste of time I could undertake as a sportswriter."

2007-03-12 16:43:43
145.   Marty
In the meantime, I'll have to subsist on Pop Tarts
2007-03-12 16:44:02
146.   Jon Weisman
141 - a picture of Vin giving an autograph!
2007-03-12 16:45:48
147.   Marty
Jon, what is your opinion of The Shield? It was completely off my radar until I was given the first season as a gift this year. I've gone through 4 seasons now and I can't get enough of it. Easily my favorite drama next to Deadwood.
2007-03-12 17:00:23
148.   Jon Weisman
Haven't been watching it. I'm sure it's great, but I never felt compelled to see it. My loss, I'm sure.
2007-03-12 17:21:28
149.   Dodgers49
I know this headline will brighten the hearts of many on this list. :-)

>>> Tomko has his eye on prize: a rotation spot

By Kevin Baxter, Times Staff Writer
March 12, 2007

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Brett Tomko moved a big step closer to grabbing the final spot in the Dodgers rotation Monday, cruising through an efficient three-inning outing in a 4-2 Grapefruit League win over the Baltimore Orioles. <<<

http://tinyurl.com/27tgv3

2007-03-12 17:21:57
150.   GoBears
Hey, OT, but since we've veered into TV talk: If anyone watched the "House" episode last week with Dave Matthews guest-starring, those were not Dave's hands playing piano. They were my brother's. No foolin'. He gets no mention in the credits, but I still think it's pretty cool. Jon interviews stars. SB almost became one. I grew up with a stand-in for one. I gotta add that to my CV...
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2007-03-12 17:22:49
151.   GoBears
149. Ah well. Doesn't matter that much. Little has shown he's willing to demote non-performers. If (when) Tomko stinks, he'll be outta there.
2007-03-12 17:26:15
152.   Bob Timmermann
150
I hope your brother has half a brain unlike the Dave Matthews character.
2007-03-12 17:29:51
153.   trainwreck
Billingsley has not given up a run in spring so if they want to base it off something as dumb as ST then Billingsley has been better. Kuo was awesome at the end of last year and I never understood why he not should have been assured a spot in the rotation.

There is no excuse for Tomko being named fifth starter.

2007-03-12 17:35:39
154.   bhsportsguy
153 3 million and options on Kuo and Billslingley.

Not saying it should be done but that is going to be a factor.

2007-03-12 17:36:12
155.   natepurcell
some good news...

Class of '06: Bryan Morris, one of last year's two first-round picks, is back on the mound taking bullpen sessions on the comeback from Tommy John elbow surgery, which he underwent after making 14 starts with Rookie-level Ogden. The compensation pick for losing Jeff Weaver had 40 walks in 59 2/3 innings. Despite the surgery, he was ranked by Baseball America as the organization's 12th-best prospect.

2007-03-12 17:36:25
156.   GoBears
152. Well, I'm not certain he can button his own shirt, if that's what you mean.

153. I imagine they're thinking of it the other way around: They hope Tomko does well enough to earn the spot, even if Billingsley does better. CB has options, and can be saved for later. Tomko is now or never. That's how I imagine the team is thinking about it. Like you, and most people here, I have different (Dodger) thoughts.

2007-03-12 17:38:19
157.   trainwreck
154 & 156
Yeah those are not good excuses. If GMs were not so stubborn and realize when they made a bad decision it would help their teams out a lot.
2007-03-12 17:41:19
158.   trainwreck
I honestly think that is part of the reason why the Angels want to get rid of Gary Matthews. They noticed all the abuse they were taking and realized signing him to that deal might not have been the brightest decision.
2007-03-12 17:43:56
159.   bhsportsguy
But who is to say that Randy Wolf will work out, he is the one coming off arm surgery and only pitched in a handful of games so there is no guarantee that he will make it out of April.

You might say, go ahead and start both Chad and Kuo, and maybe you are right, we'll see but I think if Tomko shows he can pitch, they are going to ride that for a while.

I think unitl the first month is over, it is going to take a lot for the Dodgers to start getting rid of any of their starters.

2007-03-12 17:44:59
160.   CanuckDodger
155 -- You didn't mention the news in the same article about Jonathan Figueroa throwing hard and looking like he is healthy for the first time in years. It is funny how all these southpaw pitchers who were highly-regarded before injuries took them out of the prosepct picture -- Kuo, Miller, and Figueroa -- all got back on the horse one after another.
2007-03-12 17:45:07
161.   trainwreck
Tomko has a whole career of showing he cannot pitch that well.
2007-03-12 17:46:06
162.   Jon Weisman
150 - I really enjoyed that episode.
2007-03-12 17:46:51
163.   Jon Weisman
150/162 - Although I thought the behavior by House's coterie was a little bizarre.
2007-03-12 17:48:16
164.   bhsportsguy
158 Its not the money, from everything I am hearing, it is solely the drug issue and basically they want Matthews to risk a Raffy Palmerio, which is say he is absolutely clean or do a Jason Giambi and admit he did something wrong and take the consequences.

But it does Gary no good to do either if the local DA is not going to press charges.

I think the fact that a few media and statistical analysis folks disliked the Matthews' signing plays any role in why Arte wants a resolution now.

2007-03-12 17:52:20
165.   GoBears
163. Yeah, I predicted House was pulling a fast one right away. Remember, each episode must prove that "everybody lies," and in this one, the actual patient and his father were completely honest.
2007-03-12 17:54:02
166.   GoBears
164. There was a recent story somewhere that the Angels hired a sabermetrician last year. Obviously, he was overruled on the SargeJr signing, but maybe he's making some headway now.
2007-03-12 18:02:27
167.   Dodgers49
>>> Maddux out with minor abdominal strain <<<

http://tinyurl.com/2vduzq

2007-03-12 18:24:44
168.   Dodgers49
164 - Here is the latest from a site that was just updated a short while ago:

>>> MESA, Ariz. -- Gary Matthews Jr. had the misfortune to be linked to HGH as a member of Arte Moreno's Angels. If his circumstance occurred while he was under the employ of many other organizations, or perhaps even any other organization, the consequences -- should the allegation be proven correct -- would likely be less severe. <<<

http://tinyurl.com/2ggt8h

2007-03-12 19:42:04
169.   trainwreck
JUST A REMINDER

DT head to head league has its draft tonight at 8:45.

2007-03-12 21:27:17
170.   D4P
169
Who got Choi? Was Hee the first pick?
2007-03-12 22:05:09
171.   Greg Brock
Who has the funniest team name?
2007-03-12 22:33:27
172.   das411
Actually I did see the Chopper today at Al Lang!! He made a thrilling pinch-hit appearance in the bottom of the 8th inning and ripped a solid single to left, setting up a first and second, nobody out for SuperProspect Evan Longoria...who promptly grounded into a 6-4-3 double play. :(

As requested, I did keep an eye on BJ Upton (actually started at 2B today and handled himself well, there was a tricky DP ball in the first inning that he played smoothly and a couple other semi-routine grounders he had no trouble with. At the plate he hit the ball hard all three times, just at outfielders; my scorecard reads "Upton, 2B F-8, F-9, F-9) and it was he whom Longoria came in for to ground into that DP later on.

Elijah Dukes also had a relatively uneventful game, with a solid single to left sandwiched between two swinging strikeouts. In the field he had a couple of flyouts he played in right, no big deal, but one thinks the Rays have a slightly better long-term solution for there...but sadly neither Delmon nor Edwin Jackson got any playing time today.

Pix will hopefully be posted tomorrow, there just might be a Joel Guzman sighting in there too...

2007-03-12 22:44:15
173.   Jon Weisman
New post up top.
2007-03-12 23:03:26
174.   trainwreck
172
Thanks for the report and specifically paying attention to those guys.

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