PlayTwo (from the previous thread)- Is this the picture? The credit is Rusty Kennedy, but I can't find a title. Or another picture of the event with that credit.

http://tinyurl.com/36et26

You can buy it as an 8x10 for six dollars plus shipping (assuming the place is legitimate; I have no way of knowing whether it is). Or you can buy what are purported to be signed copies, framed, from a dozen other places for between $111 and $200.

If I knew it was a 9:05am game, I would've quizzed the kids and jumped online.

'Course, I could've checked the gametime. Just as well, I guess.

FWIW, I agree completely with Jon. I have never liked loading the bases in that situation; I say, leave it up to the pitcher.

As usual, I was hurt by this game, although it was a good game. My approach might not have succeeded either, because Martinez and Valdez made two double plays our regulars might not have.
Now I am watching the young Rockies, who lead the Giants 4-1. But SF seems to be on the verge of totally psyhcing out the poor Rocks. Could be a tough night.

Re: Dioner Navarro. I was just referring to his current .198/.261/.284 line. Granted, the season and Navarro are both still young.

Andrew, thanks for the reply. The photo I'm thinking of is Gibson reaching the plate as seen from centerfield. His teammates are rushing to greet him and all are caught up in the moment. It is a great piece of photojournalism. To anyone else reading this, have you been able to get a print of this shot that ran in the Times on the morning after Kirk's epic shot?

2. I think Jon said he would've walked the batter, just that he didn't think it was that big of a deal as many of us thought.

X. imho, if you leave Lowe in, you walk the bases loaded and with his good control you most likely avoid the walk off walk and with his groundball tendancies you have a decent shot at turning a double play or getting a force out at home on a groundball. If you want to pitch to Willingham, you should bring in a strikeout pitcher like Saito or Broxton. Lowe was left in the game to either pitch around Willingham, which I don't like in that situation because you could end up throwing one to the backstop OR to strikeout Willingham and Lowe isn't exactly a power pitcher. vr, Xei

xavier paul has been pretty darn impressive in the tough southern league so far this year. after getting on base 4 out of 5 PAs today, his line for the season is..

127AB 299/371/449 3hr 14bb 40k

the only blemish is the high K rate but im still pretty impressed considering i wrote him off not too long ago.

Kemp just homered, hes 1-2 hr(3) with a bb so far tonight.

2 Wow, I actually disagree with Suffering Bruin about something.

Tastes like sad :-(

By the by, here's how the conversation between Grady and Lowe should have gone:

Lowe: I can get this guy, skip
Grady: That's so stupid...What are you, stupid? That's so stupid.
Lowe: No, really, Skip. I got this guy
Grady: Walk him or I cut your thumbs off
Lowe: Okay, Skip!

I officially have no position on what transpired today, but will blow with the prevailing winds.

Or to put in the words of Mayor Quimby,

"If that is the way the winds are blowing, let no one say that I don't also blow."

New Screen Jam post up.

11 Outside of the Philosopher King, who, by nature, is a kind and benevolent ruler, who among us thinks what transpired was acceptable? Sure, SB thinks it's alright, but I'm chalking it up to the coming Summer vacation, and a general cheeriness.

It was a bad move.

Splitting a 4 game series on the road is usually considered a good thing, so let's not all go jump off a bridge yet. Plus Atlanta is a good team.

What are the two old adages in baseball? Win at home and break even on the road, and beat up on the bad teams and break even with the good ones? We're still in great shape heading home.

It was a bad move, but Grady has a history of being talked into things by his pitcher. It was also a bad pitch and Willingham didn't miss a chance to be a hero.

It just seemed nonconventional such a conventional manager.

I am surprised at how bad the NL west seems to be this year. I for one would like to see the Dodgers go with the kids on the field and the vets on the mound. Grady might go for it, but I doubt anyone else in the organization would.

Stan from Tacoma

It was 12-9 Vegas going to the top of ninth, Oklahoma scored 4 to go up 13-12 but Vegas gets 1 in the bottom of the 9th to tie.

But wait, Oklahoma puts a 3 spot on the board in the 10th. But before you know it, Vegas loads the bases with no out, a fielder's choice with an error score 2 and then Kelly Stinnett hits a 2 run homer to win the game 17-16.

17- Really? I think the NL West is the strongest division in the NL, and stronger than the AL West. I could be persuaded that the NL East is better, especially if Philadelphia gets its ship righted, but I think it's in the middle two of the six total. Only the AL Central has as many teams at or above .500, right now. I think the NL West is probably going to be the most exciting division race; maybe second to the AL Central.

The D'backs are a good team. So are the Dodgers, so are the Padres. Colorado has some bright spots and the Giants aren't completely hopeless as long as Barry keeps hitting, since they've got good pitching, if Lincecum is really ready.

18. They should've walked Stinnett to setup the double play! :)
vr, Xei

From DeJon Watson's interview on Jacksonville broadcas, he was there for 4 games.:

Watson started his travels in Vero Beach to look at 50 players still in extended spring training, went to the Dominican to look at those players, now he is in Jacksonville and he will next go to see the Loons.

He also has a nice personality from what I can hear.

He is on for an "inning", bottom of the 5th, top of the 6th but since there two pitching changes and a total of 10 runs scored, he talks for a while. I have only listed the "prospects" but they do talk about other players. Scott Elbert is not brought up probably because he is not in Jacksonville right now.

Xavier Paul - Had a great year last year (VB), have him playing CF this year. Try to get him to hit the ball up the middle. Above-average defender in RF with an above average arm, is learning CF.

Anthony Raglani, trying to re-establish himself as a prospect.

Mike Megrew, he labored a little tonight, look liked he repeated his delivery, had fastball command.

Chin-ling Hu, good hands, above average defender, said he added 8-10 pounds of muscle during the off-season. Played well defensively in Arizona Fall League.

Jon Meloan - Had a really good major league camp, wants to see him as a multiple inning pitcher who can throw back to back days.

20 I believe the league leader in hits , Tony Abreu, was on deck with Kemp following him so pitching to Stinnett was probably not a bad idea.

18 I wish the Dodgers were displaying that kind of offense these days - I'd take half that output. (Okay, it's the PCL, but still.) Maybe, I don't know, we could call up one or two of those Vegas guys to have some of that rub off on the big club. Just a kooky thought.

21 Thanks for that report. It's interesting the experimentation going on and the number of guys they now have who could conceivably play centerfield, if, like, you know who were traded at some point. Hu sounds like someone who is on such an upswing these days that he should have a chance at the big club next year.

Jon, I am pained to the very depths of my being, I mean, he has to walk him, and then you bring in Saito to cover your bet, i.e., with the bases juiced the infield plays halfway and Saito either strucks the bum out or induces the ground ball [I would include the ubiquitous popup, but one doesn't want one's mind to go anywhere near the idea of something hit in the air in this circumstance; that the ball left the yard is simply salt in the wound].

2 It's 5:34am. I am much more awake now than I was when I posted earlier.

While I don't virulently disagree with the decision, I would've walked him.

Now, on to more important stuff... anybody catch that photo of the Globetrotters playing defense at Dodger Stadium? One of the Globies became an NBA All-Star.

You Can't blame the pitching on yesterdays loss. The lack of plate discipline by our young hitters was alarming . I hope the youngsters aren't being adversely influenced by Pierre pressure.

I think Pierre has looked much better as a leadoff hitter. Perhaps to get Furcal going Grady will hit him third for awhile.

I am just hoping that all the pieces for a trade are being put together so that a trade will be executed June 1 that will free up places on the 25 man roster for Kemp and Loney.

aaaaaand I am DONE with college!!

now alls I have to do for the next week before graduation is catch up on some 600+ DT comments...uhoh...

did this board catch the rather interesting discussion of a certain Giants LFer here?

http://tinyurl.com/ypepn4

27 - Pierre had one good game. At the start of the season, when Pierre batted leadoff, people couldn't wait for Furcal to get back. And then the media wrote that the drop to the No. 2 slot is what got Pierre going. I think people are generally too fixated on batting order.

28 - Congrats!

12)

I nearly snarfed my coffee on that comment. Mostly because I have watched so many of those episodes that I could see and hear Quimby saying that line. Long live Sideshow Bob

Per Baseball HQ on our favorite Dodger. This is roto based but still the analysis has to make Dodger fans a little giddy.

Russell Martin (C, LA)
Year to date: .330 BA, 2 HR, 21 RBI, 5 SB
How real is it? Martin continues to develop at a brisk pace, there's not much reason to place limits on what he is capable of at this point in his young career.
What if it continues? We have not seen a catcher in this mold in some time. He is a better pure hitter than a young Craig Biggio or Jason Kendall, and runs at least as well as either. As a pure hitter, there are similarities to Joe Mauer, albeit with a little less power (for now). His early PX growth (91 in 2006, 118 in 2007) suggest that power may well be on the way. We have never had to consider the roto value of a .300-20-20 catcher. That question may soon become relevant.

New post at Screen Jam.

From BP:
"The D'backs are getting by in spite of the fact that 25.3 percent of their plate appearances have gone to regulars–- Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson, and Alberto Callaspo --who have played below replacement level. Looking at players with lesser field time as well (and excluding pitchers), Arizona has expended 43.1 percent of its plate appearances on those in the negative VORP club. Does that sound like a lot? How does it compare to the rest of the league?"

Percentage of plate appearances expended on players with negative VORP:

55.5: Cardinals
48.8: Pirates
47.3: Dodgers
43.1: Diamondbacks
28.5: Padres
24.7: Nationals
20.8: Rockies
19.7: Marlins
18.6: Brewers
18.1: Reds
17.2: Giants
14.1: Braves
13.8: Mets
13.0: Cubs
11.6: Astros
5.8: Phillies

We'd be the Cardinals if not for our pitching.

15 True, but we practically gave away game 2 of the series with Florida. If we walk Willingham we still may not have won the game but the approach Lowe/Little took with Willingham was not wise, IMO. With that said, we should have won at least 3 of 4 or perhaps even swept that series.

34 That is an interesting list. Surprised to see the Brewers in the middle with 18.6%.

Jon -- this may sound crazy, but I think the loss was actually Grady Little's fault. Without looking too hard, it seemed to me as early as the sixth that Lowe was making out-of-character outs (i.e., flyballs). While he survived into the eighth, there was no reason to leave him in for the ninth.

34 That list makes me depressed a little bit. Granted there's room for improvement, but I still find it surprising that we are such a large market team and we distinctly lack a true 'superstar' on our roster.

38 I guess my post is a little off base since the VORP totals aren't cumulative, but food for thought.

37 Lowe was throwing a shut out and had only 86 pitches going into the ninth. I had no problem with him being out there (at least to start the ninth).

37 - Valid point.

40 And Grady has a history of yanking pitchers with high pitch counts once they get the leadoff batter on. I think in this case he kept Lowe in to induce the double play, but the error on the next batter made sure that didn't happen, and we're summarily in deep doo doo.

29 Most of us posting here would rather Pierre not be on the team so thoughts about him hitting first, second, or eigth are secondary at best. But he seems to energize himself in opportunities to get things started and fade in situations where he could contribute to something already started.

Hitting Furcal third would be a temporary thing with me to tweek both Furcal and Nomar's thinking. Nomar's focus might include his twins which means he is not singularly focused when he comes to bat.

29 Right. That said, maybe not.

Like others have suggested, I think it makes very little difference where Pierre bats -- 1st, 2nd, 8th. He'll hit what he hits and it'll have very little effect on team runs scored.

Still, if that's true, why not jumble the lineup after one good game? Why not give some positive reinforcement? If it makes no difference, why not, just in case we're wrong? He probably can't hit any worse than he's hitting now.

The danger, I guess, is that moving Juan to leadoff might be seen as a panacea. All the Dodgers' problems solved! That's, um, highly unlikely.

Of course, this all assumes that Pierre remains a starter.

I think Little may have left him in because he felt it was Lowe's game to win or lose. Lowe was throwing a shut out but getting no run support. Little may have thought that bringing in Saito or Broxton or whoever only to watch them give up a sac fly or base hit and lose the game for Lowe would be unfair.

I am not saying I agree with this but I can see Little thinking this way.

Managing a team includes more than the Xs and Os, it includes using people skills. Taking Lowe out means he can't win and takes out the best double play pitcher available.

As much as I don't enjoy watching Pierre and Gonzo and Betemit play, Grady would risk chaos if he were to treat too many players as platoon players. Roles are important and players need to be comfortable that once in a role they will have some time in that role before losing it or sharing it.

That said, times up.

46 The difference between Betemit and both Gonzo and Pierre is salary and their "veteran" status.

Pierre and Gonzo will start all year because of this.

I agree, times up, but Grady's stop watch is still ticking.

I was kind of kidding in my last line in 44. Pierre's missed one start so far, and had two plate appearances in that game. Barring injury, I would bet money that he will get 700+ plate appearances and start 155+ games. His age and his five-year contract ensure it.

Gonzalez is slightly different. Because he's only signed for one year, and because he is so much older than Pierre, a long, extended slump could bench him in favor of a young pup. Unlikely, to be sure, but imaginable in a way that benching Pierre is not.

47 is right when he suggests that Betemit is in a different boat entirely.

Late to the party but I'm about where Jon is on yesterday's move. I probably would have walked him but I'm okay with the call. I hate loading the bases in that situation just because I've seen too many games end on a walk. And the fact that the game will end if you walk him, tends to make the pitcher not make good pitches- and walk him. Or give up a fat pitch. I understand there is an upside and the fact that Boone was on deck would have tipped the scales but I think it's entirely defensible.

49. Just to follow up. I think if I had walked him, I would have had Saito come in and I think that would have been the best move. But again, defensible.

These are the rankings, by OPS, of Dodger starters at their respective positions:

Martin is the top catcher in the NL. Yay! And then...

Nomar-10th
Kent-4th
3rd- No qualifiers (Betemit would be 12th)
Furcal-13th
Gonzalez-10th
Pierre-11th
Ethier-6th

If you add the American League position players, well, then things really get ugly.

50. And to follow up one more time, I think we lost the game on Betemit's error more than anything else.

While listening to the game I thought it was very simple. You either walk him and leave Lowe in to try for the DP or you don't walk him but bring in someone else to go for the K. So I didn't agree with either of Grady's decisions.
These days the only thing I like about Grady is his sense of humor.

37.
"Without looking too hard, it seemed to me as early as the sixth that Lowe was making out-of-character outs (i.e., flyballs). While he survived into the eighth, there was no reason to leave him in for the ninth."

7th Inning
Groundout to Short
Groundout to 3rd
Double
Strike out

8th Inning
Line out
Strike out
Groundout to Short

9th Inning
Walk
Groundball to 3rd (E)
Groundout to Pitcher
HR

Nothing in the 7th or 8th inning would be characterized as him having "survived into the eighth" and with his low pitch count there would be no reason not to leave him in for the 9th.

Lowe just made one mistake pitch and when your team scores no runs, one mistake is all the opposition needs.

48 Good point regarding Gonzo and his one year deal. He could be benched but only at the end of the year, IMO, so you have to deal with him until at least August.

Barring injury we are stuck with Kent, Nomar, Gonzo and Pierre in the lineup most days. That is the heart of our order and we are going to have to ride them all year.

I don't mind Kent but I don't think he is a cleanup hitter anymore. Nomar may turn it around but I am starting to think that we are seeing the real Nomar.

Gonzo and Pierre, well, I will leave that alone.

I am not comfortable with this lineup long term and I dont know how to improve it.

If I recall Lowe gave up 3 fly outs the whole game. We lost because we did not score which was the 2nd time that happened on a 7 game road trip. I was not too worried about the first one because we got whipped by an excellent pitcher. This was a different story. Our offense was awful yesterday.
Post 51 spells it out pretty clearly. 3 positions we are above average and 5 are double digits in a 16 team league. Hopefully we have fixed 3B and SS will improve. I am not expecting Gonzo or Pierre to improve substantially so everyone else will have to carry them.
If this continues management will have to decide to put big $ on the bench (admit a mistake was made) or ride this train to where ever it may lead.

I know where my parking increase is going.

http://tinyurl.com/yq92h5

Actually, this is nice thing that they don't have to do.

55 Yah individually guys are decent enough (when doing well, right now, not so much) but not in the Aggregate

57. Well, that accounts for the increase over last years price for one game. It is a nice thing to do and I'm glad to see it. But I'm bitter about the price increase and 1/3 of one games parking revenue donated doesn't change that.

Sorry to be off topic but I couldn't resist.

It was good to see Gagne pitch again yesterday. It was his first appearance since coming off the DL. He pitched the 9th and got 3 outs on 7 pitches. With the Yankees down 14-2 maybe they were just in a hurry to leave but it was still nice to see. Go get em Eric.

Much of what was said above is what I'd agree with about yesterday's game. Here's a small rant:

1. We didn't score, Lowe didn't lose because he gave up the homer, he lost because we didn't give him a run. It is a team game though, and our team lost, not just Lowe.

2. I think with a 1-0 lead, Grady would have brought in Saito after the first runner reached or even to start the ninth. I think he felt Lowe pitched his heart out and deserved to make the decision on Willingham as the team didn't get him a run. As a warrior, Lowe will say "I can get this guy" which is admirable. As a strategist, walking him to put a forceout at home is the way to go. Say he gets a bleeder grounder that stays in the infield. You still have to tag the runner out at home rather than go for a forceout. It is never fun to have the based loaded with no margin of error, but that situation screams for the IBB.

3. The pitch was a mistake. A fly ball beats us there, so it didn't even matter that the ball left the yard, you can't leave the pitch up. Period.

4. We could have won every game on this trip and should have won at least one more in Atlanta. It wasn't a bad trip, but we could have come home up four games in the division.

5. We didn't lose a game in the standings to anyone but the Rocks yesterday.

6. The line-up looked quite weak with Furcal and Kent sitting down.

7. I wish we'd have started Lieberthal and given Russ a day off if we weren't going to win. How many games can he go before he wears down even a little? A noon game after a night game Grady? Watch it, he's too important to ride into the ground in May.

8. I like Grady. He is a calming influence on the team and the organization. However, we need him to be as tough a decision maker as he was when he benched Ethier last fall and when he didn't let Penny dictate when he would leave a game. Take charge. "Walk him Derek!".

9. Nomar took the blame for leaving a runner on third with one out.

10. I would like to have a week of Matt Kemp in center field and see what kind of team that would be. Pierre has not been on the disabled list in his career, right? And Jason Schmidt has gone over 200 innings each year also. I don't want Pierre injured, but if he strained a hamstring or took a foul ball off his wrist and had to sit for two weeks, I'd be happy to see what kind of team it would be with Kemp minus Pierre.

61 I agree with much of the above. Except I'm not sure about #7 - or at least, I don't know if the Dodgers were officially expecting to lose that game. They did rest a lot of regulars but to rest all of them seems a bit much. Maybe if it was a blowout score Lieberthal would come in. Martin's a sparkplug, and seems to really calm pitchers down behind the plate. I think he and Lowe have a symbiotic relationship so starting him was really important. Not that Lieberthal is a slouch there either, but I think Lowe likes having Martin in there. But other than that, well said. Kemp replacing Pierre is very unlikely, even for short term, but I sure would love to see him brought back and given spot starts for Pierre. Does Pierre really need to start every game (separate even from our feelings on whether he needs to be on the team at all), is the question the Dodgers should answer.

Grady simply doesn't have the guts to bench Pierre, Gonzo, or Nomar. Change his name to 'Chicken' Little.

62
My point was that we need to rest Martin at times and since we lost, in retrospect, I wish he would have sat yesterday.

Maybe Lowe doesn't throw a gem with Lieberthal. We were out to win the game and if I'm the manager, I'd be tempted to play Russ every single game. I just think we need to monitor Russ a little more to keep him from wearing down, it is the toughest position there is. We need him in October.

63 I'm pretty sure Grady would be canned quickly if he started playing Brady Clark over Pierre. His handed him a 44 million dollar toy, he expects him to use it.

64 Ah, with hindsight I could see that... ;-) Yes, I do like the idea of Lieberthal starting 2 out of 7 basically. (I wish we had a DH in the NL, sometimes, just so Martin could hit while resting from the catching duties.)

63 Yeah, I don't think that's quite fair. I think Little's shown when he's frustrated with a player, he'll at least "rest" them in spurts. But obviously there is some pressure to play guys with huge contracts so Pierre will have a much longer leash than he deserves. But I think Little - who has already sat Pierre once when he was really slumping to start the season - would do it again (though he did show more patience with Gonzo than I would have at the season's start, but Gonzo did start hitting soon after that). But there's a balance between wanting your own choice of lineup and what the GM and contracts dictate. Alas.

61 Your 1st point is right on target.

Not to pick nits but 4-"We could have won every game on this trip" In the first game Smoltz was sharp and Tomko wasn't (4 2/3 IP; 11 base runners; 96 pitches). I don't see how we could have won that game.

I particularly agree with point 7.

I have a hard time with #8. Not that I agree or disagree with you but it is easy to criticize, especially after the fact. I was following the game on Game Day and I practically shouted at my computer, "walk the guy" but I don't what would have happened if he had walked him. I know I would have sent Lowe out to start the 9th but I don't know if I would have pulled him after the first walk or not. Overall I think he does a good job. Players have to perform. My biggest criticism of Grady is putting JP in the 2 slot vs further down. But enough of that.

I like reading posts like yours. It looks like you put some thought into it.

63
Why won't he sit him once a month then? Pierre has started every game except for one. Is it because of his consecutive games streak? We are out to win as a team, not set individual records.

Gonzo and Nomar have had their time to sit, Pierre has sat once. And he still played enough to qualify for his streak to continue.

A third catcher would allow us to sit Russ late in a blowout game and put in Lieberthal as long as we had a back up to our back up.

Can we teach Betemit to catch? Nobody else on the bench can catch, can they? Brady Clark?

70 Ramon Martinez is the third catcher.

68

The Smoltz game wasn't a close score, but if you remember, we loaded the bases with nobody out in the 4th and couldn't score. The game didn't get away from us until the next inning. If Betemit hit his first homer of the year a day earlier, that game is winnable. If we rally, we knock out Smoltz and who knows. We had a look at the game, we weren't shut down entirely. I think we had 8 hits and a few walks, right? Still got shut out though.

The point was simply we didn't collapse on the trip and we are playing well enough to win most games. That is a good position to be in. First place in May doesn't mean much, but it is better than a team that is hopeless. The Cards aren't playing well and I hope we can win at least 4 out of the next 6 at home.

71 I guess that means that when we add a 12th pitcher Ramon is sure thing to stay.

70
Has he ever caught for us? Has he ever caught an inning in the majors?

I don't recall it happening but I know everyone has that third guy they call the third guy who doesn't actually ever catch unless it is a total emergency.

Wrong thread, but since everyone's up here, I just wanted to say that the Dodger photo archive linked in the previous post is terrific. The pic of Fernando's windup just displaced the Golden Gate Bridge at sunset as my desktop wallpaper.

Good times.

We did get 8 hits (6 off Smoltz) and 2 walks. All 8 hits were singles. Betemit look helpless (awful) against Smoltz.

Oh, I meant to ask (and apologize if this was covered yesterday). Is that his screwball grip in the picture?

74 I see where he has played 1b, 2b, SS, 3b, LF and RF in the major leagues. That still leaves catcher, CF and pitcher.

74 I'm sure it's just in name only.

Personally, I see no problem with using Lieberthal like a normal pinch hitter. How often does the catcher get hurt in the late innings? Once every three years? It seems like having a dead spot on the bench for a 1 in 500 event is a huge waste of space, yet everyone does it.

Little may be being a team player but he is not doing Ned any favors playing Pierre and Gonzo and Betemit everyday.

The GM (or owner) cannot tell the manager whom to play. True, he can fire him at any time, but if he sat Pierre and played Kemp or Clark and we started winning, the GM would be well advised to keep his mouth shut or HE might be the one fired. I know it's not going to happen but wishing is free.

Do you think McCourt is enough of a baseball fan to even be aware of the bad deals that were made?

Hm, I saw this note on a newspaper's web site just now, and didn't realize this:

The Dodgers' average age of 30.6 years is fourth oldest in baseball, oldest in the NL West, slightly ahead of San Diego, which ranks sixth, and San Francisco, which ranks fifth.

I would have predicted SF would be a little older. Thank you Gonzo, Kent and co.

83 Hmm.. I wonder if the "average" is the mean or the median?

82
Well the guy he hired is not, so I doubt he is.

83 Thats amazing. I wonder how much Licecum and Cain skew the results for the Giants.

81 I think "play Pierre or I fire your butt" is a good enough reason.

Even if he does take him out and the Dodgers start winning, correlation does not equal causation. The difference between Albert Pujols and a replacement level player is about 11 wins, so replacing Pierre with Clark wouldn't even make a noticeable difference in the short term. Considering this, Clark would probably contribute about a 100th of a win per game more than Pierre. Would anyone be able to tell the difference.

Benching Pierre is not some magical solution which will turn this team around. If the owner made a decision based on a few games of success without Pierre, it would be just as poorly thought out as the decision to sign him in the first place.

Now I'm defending Juan Pierre. What's happened here?

I'm guessing that between Franco, Alou, Valentin and Glavin the Mets must be the oldest.

88 I think both NY teams rank at the top. :-)

69 The problem with resting Martin is that you are resting the best player on the team. If we can get some consistent production out of Nomar, Gonzo, Furcal, etc. we can afford to rest him.

Benching Pierre for Clark would be goofy; benching him for Kemp might not be, though that's not going to happen.

The Reds have out-homered their opposition 47-27, and have a 9 point edge in on-base percentage vs opposition, and yet they have only scored 9 more runs than the opposition. And that 9 run advantage had given them a 15-20 record. This team probably isn't as bad as 15-20, not even close. The Dodgers are in for a battle.

I have more of a preview for the Reds up at dodgerama.blogspot.com including an ugly comparison of Reds and Dodgers home runs by position.

91 Okay, if you want to substitute Kemp for Clark substitute "one-hundredth" for something between two and three hundredths.

69

I'd be more inclined to rest him late in a game than to not start him. But I also don't think he should be catching 20 out of 21 games. I think 13 out of 14 is the most I'd go with any catcher that you want fresh late in the season. It is just sort of baseball folklore that you would rarley start a catcher on a day game after a night game as regularly as Grady starts Martin.

I just want to win. I want Martin to play. I just don't want to see Martin wear down or get hurt, he's too valuable to us.

93 - You need to look at X out of X days, not X out of X games. There are more off days early in the season than later.

92 --- But Kemp is a player with potential; Clark isn't. To me that's the big difference.

And, 3 hundredths of a win over then next hundred games or so would be 3 wins, right? That's not something to dismiss. Though I'm not sure I believe Kemp would really be 3 games better than Pierre over the rest of the season.

But Pierre isn't going to be benched, so it's all moot.

95 I agree. The original point was that benching Pierre is going to provide any kind of effect you'll notice over a few games. This holds true for any decision made on the field.

96 --- Ah, I understand now.

In the same vein, I remember a post Jon made last year about possibly getting Soriano in trade near the deadline, and how counter-intuitive it seemed that statistically he would only be worth just one extra win or something small like that over Lofton over the course of the remaining year.

Also sort of in the same vein, I love Russ Martin, but the frequent announcer talk of the great team record with him last year drives me nuts.

94
I understand the difference with the off days in the mix Jon, but the position requires so much that every game regardless of an off day in a calendar or not, every game in the crouch brings about a wearing down over the course of a season.

I still think he's riding Martin too much and he did it late last year too when Martin never went past August in the minors. An off day brings Martin back fresh, but he's on pace to catch 140 games and that seems like an awful lot to me. He needs to get some more innings off, not just days off.

I'd like to see Russ get some 8th and 9th innings off like Gonzo and even Kent get. While Martin is our top defensive catcher, if we had a legit third option, Lieberthal could spell him a few innings a week which would add up to another 9-15 innings a month.

I could be wrong, but LoDuca would wear down in the second half and he had power when he was first called up that went away right away.

95 I agree, and it's all moot. Though I'd still argue that Clark has more overall offense plus+ potential than Pierre, and worries me less defensively. Though he wouldn't steal as many bases, but otherwise I'd still take him. But yes, would prefer Kemp overall, and then it's moot so never mind.

97 We have a lot in common, you and I.

I'd like to see Martin get more 8th and 9th innings off, too, but the problem has also been that the Dodgers have been in too many close games. A few more blow out wins would be nice, then I think you'd see Martin rested late.

The "bench Pierre" thought -- speaking only for myself -- uses Pierre only as a symbol. Really, it's a "resist the overpriced veteran players and instad call up the kids and let's see what they can do" movement. It's just not as catchy and doesn't fit on a bumper sticker.

I run a blog that bashes Pierre and advocates benching him, but I would hope that such an action would be made by Colletti and Little together. If Little benches Pierre over Colletti's objections, it's 2005 all over again, and no one wants to see that.

98 - But when you say "he's on pace to catch 140 games," you have to understand that that pace will change as he rests more on game days instead of off days.

103
I thought that last summer and then Grady ran him out there just about everyday in Aug/Sept while Toby Hall fiddled on the bench. I understand because it was a close race and we needed him, just saying that if we have another close race I wouldn't be shocked to see Ned put him out there 140 times.

Hopefully (and presumably) Little has more faith in Lieberthal than he did in Toby Hall, but we'll see. I'm optimistic that Jon's right about it. Otherwise, Martin can always play third to "rest." ;-)

For the non-stats folks, STATS 101 continues: :-)

>>> BABIP is fairly self-explanatory: it's the percentage of fair, non-home run batted balls that fall for base hits. A hitter can pop up to second, ground into a 6-4-3 double play, fly out to the warning track, lay down a bunt single, double off the wall or line out — those are all examples of balls in play. The ones that go for base hits count toward BABIP. <<<

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6794020

106

Mark Hendrickson, Dodgers .205

Eh, who ya gonna trust -- someone named BABIP or the headshrinker?

107. I'm casting my vote for the headshrinker. :-) Mark said that for some reason he did not use his curveball last time. So I picture him on the couch before his next outing while the headshrinker whispers in his ear: throw your curve, Mark. Throw your curve.

Tim Brown sort of defends the 9th inning decision yesterday:
http://tinyurl.com/2zydh9

But more to his first item... anyone on the Blue Jays the Dodgers should eye, in case there's a fire sale? (I'm not as into the idea of Troy Glaus as some of ya might be...)

The Padres are wearing 1972 throwback jerseys tonight.

Avert your eyes. The game should be on EI as the Cardinals are showing it on their Fox Sports affiliate.

109. But more to his first item... anyone on the Blue Jays the Dodgers should eye, in case there's a fire sale? (I'm not as into the idea of Troy Glaus as some of ya might be...)

I'm not sure we'd want to deal with a GM who lies about the health of his players. :-)

109 Willingham had been hitless in six career at-bats against Lowe, including a strikeout and two ground-ball outs – one leading to a double play – Thursday. No wonder he felt good about that. Boone had doubled two innings before, his second double in six career at-bats against Lowe from Tim Brown

Small sample size. I suspect most of us knew that yesterday while advocating the IBB.

[110] i for one love the old padres and astros jerseys. what's wrong with color, people??

Today's lineup
Here's the lineup for today and as you'll note, there's not much different from before except that Furcal, Kent and LaRoche are back in the lineup, which is pretty significant:

Furcal, SS

Pierre, CF

Nomar, 1B

Kent, 2B

Gonzalez, LF

Martin, C

Ethier, RF

LaRoche, 3B

Wolf, P

http://insidethedodgers.mlblogs.com/

lineup posted at ItD

Furcal
JP
Nomar
Kent
LuGo
Martin
3.5
LaRoche

and to offer some protection for LaRoche, Randy Wolf comes into the game with a .661 OPS.

some prospect talk...

some notables...

California League Averages
263/342/397 739OPS

average age: 22.2

Jamie Hoffman age 22
330/374/495 869OPS

Lucas May age 22
301/362/581 943OPS

Southern League Averages
254/330/379/ 709OPS

average age: 24.4

Chin Lung Hu Age 23
368/388/519 907OPS

Xavier Paul age 22
299/369/449 818 OPS

I thought Grady promised changes?

109
I'd do Glaus for La Roche myself but Canuck would probably string me up by my toes from a Vancouver bridge.
While La Roche is young he's unproven and he could be good quickly or he could be early Crede for several years while Glaus gives us the power this team yearns for that I'd hoped Betemit would have provided.

I don't think Vernon Wells would be very happy about a fire sale after signing his deal and JP can't afford a fire sale since it was his irresponsible decision to pay BJ Ryan all that money. If he doesn't compete this year don't you think he'd get at the most one more year or be fired? He has had long enough to implement a plan and you'd think the owners would be a bit unhappy with the results so I find it a little hard to believe he'll start selling off his veteran talent for a youth movement since he wouldnt' be around to enjoy the fruits of his deals.

Hoffman and May have both been pleasant surprises. May has cooled off a bit as he did have the OPS over 1000 not to long ago.

Maybe Little should bat Wolf second.

119

i usually am with you on alot of subjects but never in a million years i would trade laroche for glaus. He is past 30 and very injury prone and his defense has deteriorated over the past years. You have had this fear that Laroche will turn into Joe Crede for a while and I simply dont understand it. Laroche has shown he can draw walks with the best of them while Crede did show good plate discipline in the minors, it was never on a level laroche displayed.

121 - And Pierre should pitch the first inning? :)

123 You're onto something.

....after the game, Little said, "Hey, I promised changes, didn't I?"

123 Hey, why not? Randy Jones had a couple successful years throwing his - what did Pete Rose call it? - weak stuff. ;)

Rotoworld is reporting Roy Halladay is going to the DL for at least a month with acute apendicitis. The Jays are also missing several of their key players so it looks like our interleague schedule looks less rugged while our NL West associates have series with the Yankees and Red Sox. Hopefully our brush with interleague play this season isn't as brutal as last year.

Jonathan Mayo had a long draft chat today and not one Dodger question. I'm very disappointed.

Nate do you think Jonathan Mayo knows anything more about our prospects then you do because I don't?

128

about our prospects? No. About the draft? Probably. He's better connected, better sources, etc. I really think he has done a terrific job over at milb.com the past two drafts and im looking forward to his insight as this one rolls around.

110 I did some research because I was curious to see what version of ugly the '72 Padre uniforms were (turns out they were not the peak of Padre ugly).

The uni database at baseballhalloffame.org has the '99 Dodger road uniforms as vests. Did I miss that season? I don't recall that at all ('99 apparently was also the first year that they had "Los Angeles" across the front of the road uniforms).

I just have no recollection of the vests...

about this draft, ive been thinking really really hard about the boras factor and the top talent that is going to be available. He represents at least 6 first rounders this year (porcello, wieters, brackman, harvey, moustakas, borbon) and im probably forgetting some. Out of the prep players he is advising, I think Matt Harvey is the most likely one to drop and be available at 20 and he would be soooo tempting.

I dont know what his bonus demands are and i dont really know what colletti/white think about picking a boras prep client, but what do i know is that at 20, Harvey would be an extreme value pick in terms of talent and draft slot.

Apparently Halladay is out 4-6 weeks.

118 The change may be that LaRoche is back more durably this time - i.e. Betemit out. But Grady said only "maybe as soon as tomorrow" (i.e. today). Changes may come over the next few days...

Replace Clark and Valdez with Kemp and Loney, and suddenly, this is a team to be reckoned with.

Anyone else notice that the bottom third of the order is the most exciting part of the offense?

The hour of the kids is at hand. Let's hope management sees that.

134 The hour of the kids is at hand. Let's hope management sees that.

51s' best talent must 'knock door down'

>>> "Our job is not to have these players knocking on the door to get to the big leagues, but to knock the door down ... to be so ready that they dominate at this level, because when they get to the big leagues it's going to be a totally different situation." ... Ned Colletti <<<

http://www.lvrj.com/sports/7436871.html

135 The problem is that the door is off the hinges, the windows have been blown out, the roof has been raised, and the house is completely off its foundation, but the resident still says that the structure is sound.

The door is on pretty flimsy hinges. Knock, knock.

136--I wouldn't go that far. But the plumbing in the Stadium definitely needs upgrading. Maybe we can put LuGo in charge of that, and let Kemp play left field.

138 Yeah, I know. I was using hyperbole. But in my opinion, it wasn't a rule 6 violation, because nothing less than hyperbole would have been sufficient.

Extending the metaphor to make a point! Not amused? OK.

138 - thats funy right there. Tell you what.

This is nice - McCourt gave 100K to the Griffith Park rebuild efforts:
http://batanga.sportsya.com/noticia.php?id=144783&id_estruc=1

Just thought some positivity on them would be nice for once.

135 ...to be so ready that they dominate at this level..." -Colletti

Wow. I'd seen the vague "knock the door down" metaphor, but not the above part of the quote. If we take Colletti literally, his choice of the word "dominate" is insane. A team (or this team) shouldn't give a prospect a job unless they're sure he'll dominate? So only immediate all-stars need apply?

Talk about a recipe for disaster. Better to play a known mediocrity as long as you're not sure the rookie will dominate in the majors? That's certifiable.

If he'd just said "hold his own at this level" the quote would be fine, although, for a big-market team that doesn't need to worry too much about service time, really, the only criterion should be "play better than the guy he's replacing."

So I guess Martin is just going to bat in the lower half of the lineup, no matter what. That's it. He's a catcher, he's young, he needs to focus on handling pitchers, he's Canadian, he's of mixed parentage, he's right handed, Russell isn't a historically successful name in MLB, he likes Karen over Pam.

Nice to see that Grady has shaken things up...Not.

130
In 1999, the Dodgers wore blue vests during a "Think Blue" week promotion.

I wept a lot that weekend.

141. Nice gesture.

I like Karen over Pam.

Pam is the non-alcoholic beer of women in the Office.

he likes Karen over Pam.

Trade him!

Well, waitasec...it could be because RM is named after John Coltrane, and Karen is played by Quincy Jones's daughter. It's a jazz thing. Yeah, that'd explain it.

OK, stand down, people. Russell can stay.

134 -- Replace Clark and Valdez with Kemp and Loney, and suddenly, this is a team to be reckoned with

That would only change who sits on the bench.

Our job is not to have these players knocking on the door to get to the big leagues, but to knock the door down

Conversely, veterans don't lose their job by sucking...They lose it by sucking royally. I mean, some major, big time, Willie Mays on the Mets-type sucking.

It's our job to put the door in front of veterans. When they run into it and fall down, breaking numerous bones and embarassing themselves, well, that's when we bench them.

Veterans, baby. Leadership. Courage. Experience and whatnot.

142 Doesn't the call up of LaRoche sort of chuck that whole prerequisite theory in the water anyway? He's put up good numbers in the minors in the past, but it's not like he was busting the door down in AAA so far this year. But here is.

150.

Betemit was (at best) a screen door.

Well yeah, but that makes the statement of philosophy seem both insane and disingenuous.

Either that, or he thinks LaRoche is ready to dominate the majors, despite his AAA stats.

142 Better to play a known mediocrity as long as you're not sure the rookie will dominate in the majors? That's certifiable.

No, I think he is saying he wants the player to dominate at LAS VEGAS before he will bring him up to the majors.

Peoople going to a Broadway play are usually disapointed if the understudy is working and the main actor/singer is resting. But people would be happier if understudies Loney, Kemp, and LaRoche were in the lineup and Pierre, Gonzo, and Betemit were resting. I think this is mostly true.

Betemit let him in thru the Doggie door.

150 Conversely that means Luis Gonzalez and Nomar have to hit below the Mendoza line to get pulled, which will not happen.

156 Recent trends say otherwise.

Nomar and Gonzalez are more likely to hit .200 than hit above .315.

Of course, they're both more likely to hit .270, OBP .335, and Slug .400. All of which, for a 1st baseman and corner outfielder, are just terrible.

153. Looked me to like the "at this level" refers to MLB, not AAA. Since Colletti is GM of the MLB team, AAA would be "at that level."

But you could be right. He could be not insane, but incoherent.

126 And now Glaus goes down. Man the 2007 Blue Jays are alot like the 2005 Dodgers. They even have Jason Phillips!

122
I defer to your good sense:

Glaus left Friday night's game during the first inning with an apparent leg injury. He pulled up lame while running down the first base line, before being removed in favor of Jason Smith prior to the start of the second inning. We'll have more information as it becomes available.

159. Looked me to like the "at this level" refers to MLB, not AAA. Since Colletti is GM of the MLB team, AAA would be "at that level."

You probably didn't pull up the entire article. :-) It was in the Las Vegas Review-Journal (May 10th) and Colletti was in Las Vegas at the time watching a 51s game.

158
Why would Nomar a career 318 hitter be more likely to hit 118 points below his career then 18 below his average?

Last year I made a bet with the GoBear in which I lost the games played but not the OPS side(850+). I'd be more then willing to make another beer bet that Nomar will OPS above 850 from this point on or 800 for the season even after this dismal start.

I don't claim to be expert at translating Nedese, but he seems to be drawing a distinction between AAA and the bigs in this door-knocking quote from the Las Vegas paper==

"Our job is not to have these players knocking on the door to get to the big leagues, but to knock the door down ... to be so ready that they dominate at this level, because when they get to the big leagues it's going to be a totally different situation."

And he was speaking in Vegas to the Vegas paper.

162
Yes, I remember the context of the article and I'm sure Ned was talking about minor leaguers knocking the door down. He does seem to on the record about never going into spring training with a rookie written into the starting lineup without some type of competition.

Henceforth, Jason Phillips shall be known as "Typhoid Jason."

Wow. Even the mention of his true name has killed the thread. I apologize.

Jason Phillips = Fight Club, as far as rules go.

163 You seem to put a lot of stock in his pre-2000 numbers. This is not the year 2000, he's not getting any younger, and he has a terrible injury history.

His post-2000 numbers tell a very different story. He's been a .285 hitter with a lot less power. He's more likely to decline a ton then improve by thirty points.

163 Then again, we never agree on anything, so who cares. Nomar for MVP.

164 Correct. If you check my original post 135 you'll note that I included the link to the source. The portion I included was to just get people's attention and if they were interested they could go read the entire article. When I posted here for the first time a couple of months ago I posted an entire article. Andrew informed me that Jon, being a journalist himself, would probably not appreciate that. He recommended that I quote no more than about 10% of an article. But, of course, this is the kind of misunderstanding that can occur when you feed people tidbits of information. :-)

http://www.lvrj.com/sports/7436871.html

You probably didn't pull up the entire article. :-) It was in the Las Vegas Review-Journal (May 10th) and Colletti was in Las Vegas at the time watching a 51s game.

You're right - I just read the quote you provided. But I call shenanigans! Not fair.

OK, I take it back. This quote is not independent evidence of Colletti's troubled relationship with good baseball sense. But he still has Loney to answer for.

I'm looking forward to tonight's game starting up so we can move on to obsessing about that ;-)

NPUT

While I was jousting about Colletti's statement, I was also completing a state-mandated online UC Ethics Briefing. Now that I am officially certified (no longer certifiable) as an Ethics Master, I wish to blow the whistle on Dodgers49 for leading me astray with his cavalier quotation of Colletti speak.

Oh sure, the link was there to clear up the this/that folderol, but I feel as though I was deliberately deceived. 'Twould have been much more ethical (and, as I say, I now KNOW ethical) to preface the quote in 135 with some warning that the GM had been spirited away to Sin City and liquored up to make him talk.

I'd have let it slide, but I'm informed that whisteblowing is its own reward. Or petard. One or the other.

D'oh! LAT-ed.

Yeah, well, Kemp and Loney still need to be in the bigs.