Belated Happy Fathers Day to your kids, and I guess you, Jon, and the rest of the dads and kids out there.

Looks like I missed some weekend of Dodger baseball. But you gotta figure, if the Nationals can take 1 out of 3 from T.O., the Dodgers can at least get 2.

And we miss Halladay.

And an aside, consider taking a few minutes and reading this thoughtful blog post from the Nationals beat writer Barry Svrluga. It's, well, Weismanesque.

http://tinyurl.com/2d5pu7

It's turning into a Father's Day weekend tradition: the Dodgers getting smacked around by an AL team. This year it was the Angels, last year it was Oakland, the year before we got worked over by the White Sox.

2
I'm not sure that names should ever begin "Svrl"

So Dylan's a kid from the neighborhood (South Pas). He has experience living on the mean streets. And he likely knows how to get to Dodger Stadium fast.

BlueBleeder this Dodger Loon is for you:
Full Name: Adolfo J. Gonzalez
Born: 06/13/1985
Birthplace: Caracas, Venezuela
Height: 5' 11"
Weight: 160
Bats: R
Throws: R

Currently starting 2nd baseman for our Low A team.

1--Halladay is pitching wednesday's game according to the Dodgers home page.

The Dodgers do miss out on James Shields this weekend, but they do get Scott Kazmir.

Oops -- right, Friday to Wednesday. Sorry about that.

7. Yep, Stopper Guo gets to face off with Halladay. Guo's had quite a few tough matchups since being inserted into the rotation. vr, Xei

I'm feeling more rational about the wall than I did last night, and I think Jon nailed it.
I noticed Hu had a nice bame including a double and a triple. I'm pretty sure he will be a major leaguer, and SS at that.
But I was surprised he was listed at 5'11" and 190 this year. I could of sworn up to last year he was 150 lb. with a frame that won't accomodate much more. He must be following Abreu's example and bulking up. It seems to work. I remember Hu and Abrue coming up the system together as a defensive "show"!

11. game, that is.

6 I noticed Adolfo made quite a splash. I thought he was even younger.

7 Shields is the real threat in that rotation. Kazmir has been having control issues all year. I know because he's on my fantasy team. Not a ton of K's, lots of BB's, a fair amount of ER's. Just as long as the Dodgers let him take himself out of the game in 5-6, we can get into that bullpen and have no trouble.

"That being said, I have to admit I'm impressed that no one blamed Loney's injury on Brett Tomko"

Looks like Alyssa is on the Billingsley bandwagon. Good for her.
vr, Xei

Should Loney play first ahead of Nomar (Garciaparra)? Maybe.

But probably not.

Defense:

Loney > Nomar

Offense:

Loney > .662 OPS

14.
Everyone knows it's not Tomko's.
It's all Pierre's fault.

I won't say that Loney should not absolutely play in the outfield. But I think there should be a good reason for it. And "he's out there because Nomar is going to get the majority of time at first" isn't a good enough reason for me, especially when you have an unsafe un-padded wall out there.

the funny thing is that my name is Arnulfo not Adolfo, TC. it was pretty funny watching ToyCannon say my name while at the game on friday.

19
So much for getting Bluebleeder one of those novelty license plates with his name on it. You know like they sell at Disneyland and other amusement parks?

Mr. McCourt: Tear down this wall!

20 My pal Bort didn't have a problem getting one of those.

19
My wife has me working on it, by the 21st I'll be able to say it with a flourish.

22. He must have gotten there before they were all sold out.

Unfortunately/fortunately, I didn't see the play, but it seems to me the following three things should happen:

1) They should do away with the stupid plexigas-"protected" LCD screens on the left and right field fences. This actually may even have less to do with the potential to hurt outfielders and more to do with the fact that they are annoying and not as useful as, say, displaying the scores of other games around the league...but either way they shouldn't be there.

2) Generally, I think we should get Loney into the lineup however we can. I love seeing this guy hit and however that happens is fine with me. I'm glad he's finally with the big club. That said, Grady, I don't know if I see him as a late-inning "defensive replacement" in the outfield...

3) I should go on a date with Alyssa Milano. Short of the vegetarian thing, I think we could work.

That third one may have been a bit of a stretch, but after reading her latest post, I've never been more sure that we would get along...but maybe I'm only dreaming.

Bort "nails" Bailey celebrated with unbridled abandon when notified that the license he had made had finally sold. It made the 20 years to life so much easier to take.

Short of the vegetarian thing, I think we could work

Vegetarians taste better. At least, that's what bumper stickers tell me.

25 - Grady, I don't know if I see him as a late-inning "defensive replacement" in the outfield...

Such is life with only 4 "real" OF's on the roster.

27 - Ick.

The main point of putting Loney in the outfield Sunday was to get him experience in a low-pressure (i.e. blowout) situation. If you're not willing to play him in the OF then, then you're not willing to play him in the OF period. Now, that's fine if that's your choice, but certainly if you're going to give him any OF time, Sunday was a logical time to do it.

Fun OPS+ Fact:

Fredo/Player & Merchandise Seller Nomar: Combined 145 OPS+

Cheeseburger lover Miguel Cabrera: 144 OPS+

I'm not sure if this had been answered, but I remember seeing someone ask whether or not Kuo was a good hitter back in the days. Well, my mom just told me that she's read in the chinese papers before that Kuo was known for his power back in high school. He either strikes out or hits one out.

29 Good point, and I agree for the most part because, like I said, I want him in the lineup and if that means getting OF experience, then I'm all for it. Also, I'm a Grady Little supporter, even to a fault sometimes. Logically, your argument makes perfect sense, but it's just that when I read about this, I guess I just felt like Clint Howard in Parenthood..."He had no business being out there...!"

Besides Dylan Hernandez, another Dodger beat writer, Diamond Leung of the Press Enterprise, also graduated from UCLA.

No one seemed worried that Wilson Betemit was going to hurt himself in right field.

34 - If James Loney gained weight and said it made him a better ballplayer, we wouldn't worry about him either, perhaps.

Also, ItD reports Schmidt to the DL and Anderson called up.

New post at Screen Jam.

27 As one of my closest friends had on stuck on the back of his Mazda Miata during college:

"No one ever found truth by reading a bumper sticker. (Trust me, its true.)"

Bob e-mailed me this article, which I'd like to rename "Giants Fever: Catch It"

http://www.mercurynews.com/giants/ci_6167871?nclick_check=1

Barry Bonds: "I'm a Giant. I'm stuck here till the end."

(Note: I took the quote out of context to make the joke work.)

29 ---

Yes, that's very true.

If the Dodgers had Pujols at first, I wouldn't have as much of a problem ( or any problem ) with trying Loney in the outfield. Well, at least Loney isn't being tried a bit in the outfield because Jason Phillips needs time at first base.

I hope the outfielders will heed these two examples of Loney and Kemp and start playing a bit more carefully out there with those unpadded bits of wall.

FYI From BP
"Chris Cates, SS, University of Louisville

For the first time in history, the University of Louisville baseball team is in the College World Series, and one of the team's fan favorites is shortstop Chris Cates. A senior player who is the ultimate definition of non-toolsy grinder, Cates is hitting .298/.353/.371 for the Cardinals with 17 stolen bases and just 16 strikeouts in 248 at-bates. The Twins made him a 38th-round pick, and he'll start a pro career once his team is done in Omaha. Cates helped the team stave off elimination on Sunday with a 3-for-5 performance in a 12-4 win-or-go-home game against Mississippi State. Now comes the interesting part–-Cates is five-foot-three. In terms of shear physicality, Dustin Pedroia looks more like standing next to him. The odds of his ever reaching the big leagues are long, as Harry Chappas and Yo-Yo Davalillo represent the only players with Cates' size to have played in the majors (non-Gaedel division) in the postwar era, but lets root for him anyway"

And a little update on how Preston is handling the move to 2nd from BP

"The Dodgers made what looked like a questionable pick at the time by taking Mattingly in the supplemental part of last year's first round, but after an impressive showing in the Gulf Coast League last summer, as decisions go, it seemed sound. The spitting image of his father Don (plus three inches and 20 pounds), Mattingly got off to a horrible start in his pro debut, sitting at just .192/.241/.273 in mid-May. Drafted as a shortstop, but given no shot by scouts to stay there, the organization felt that Mattingly's defensive struggles--including an incredibly awful .773 fielding percentage--were affecting him at the plate. They moved him over to second base, and not only has Mattingly made just four errors since moving to the other side of the bag, but he's hit .349/.379/.578 since the move, now sitting at a respectable .265/.300/.400 and rising. Even at second base he's fringy with the glove, and most see him as a left fielder in the end, but the bat is back."

41 If LF is in his future, why not start playing him in the outfield now?

I know everyone loves middle infielders with pop and are hesitant to move them because of the increased value they have but frankly if a guy is going to be an outfielder when he advances, why not start him there when the games really don't matter.

35. If true, then Schmidt is shaping up to be one of the worst signings in Dodgers history.

That being said, I have to admit I'm impressed that no one blamed Loney's injury on Brett Tomko.

it raced threw my mind though. i really hope him & Hendy get package in a trade.

The Schmidt signing was a good one. It's just been a bad first half season on a three-year deal. Good signings fail to work out all the time.

It's the head-scratchers at the time that drive you crazy. Dreifort, our current CF, etc. Ned gets a pass on Schmidt, as far as I'm concerned.

42
Because that is just Goldsteins' position not the Dodgers. However whenver I've read what outside scouts say they are usually right. They were right about Scott Hairston, D Young and numerous other players in low A who couldn't handle 2nd base but didn't get a position change until AAA. The explanation I've always heard is that they need to give them a chance because if the bat can play in the infield then the value of that player is much more then as an outfielder and anyone can learn the outfield. Just ask James Loney:)

43 ---

Among the worst in result or among the worst in forseeable disastrousness?

If Schmidt wasn't able to ever really pitch at all effectively over the three years, then it would be among the worst in results. But could it fairly be said that Ned should have forseen that sort of disaster?

In the case of Pierre, it's looking like a disaster, and it could easily have been forseen, as well.

There is a lot of competition for worst deal ever handed out by the Dodgers. The Perezez, especially Carlos, the Dreifort deal ... the Park deal ( oh wait, that was Texas thank goodness )

ITD says that Schmidt is going to the doctors today and going on the DL to be replaced by Marlon Anderson.

43 Certainly the team is being conservative, there are "healthy pitchers" who have had games like Schmidt has thrown recently and they are still given the ball every 5 days.

I am surprised that it was Anderson being activated only because it does create a middle relief hole if Chad starts on Thursday (which I think he should).

Since Hendrickson and Tomko have not seen time in a close game since being sent back to the bullpen, I would think that would mean Seanez/Beimel are now the 6th/7th inning guys with Broxton and Saito closing up shop.

But with Kuo and Chad pitching back to back, I would think that they would need another arm for backup.

I guess Anderson is being recalled in case Loney needs to go on the DL (maybe they won't know that until tomorrow) They can certainly survive tomorrow with the current pitching staff.

I just wonder if Ned et all did their proper due diligence with the Schmidt signing. I mean, how does a guy just lose his fastball over one off-season without some kind of tail off in 2006? Giants sure didn't make any attempts to re-sign him.

47. Prior to signing Schmidt, did the Dodgers have him pitch a session with a radar gun? Did they examine his velocity and accuracy? I don't know how signings work? Or did they just ask -- hey Schmidt, you feeling OK? Yea, I'm fine. Good, here's $47 million for you.

49
I believe Kip Wells is healthy and available from the Cardinals at a bargain price.

There have been two managers in major league history whose lost name included "zz." The second, Sam Perlozzo, of the Baltimore Orioles, was fired today. The first was Lee Mazzilli, who was fired during the 2005 season . . . and replaced by Sam Perlozzo.

29
Main reason to put Loney in at that point in the game was the double switch allowed us to bring in Tomko and not burn another pitcher in the next inning because Tomko was put into the 7th slot where Kemp was hitting.

Some on DT think Grady was conceding the game but I think he was getting another at bat for someone other than a pitcher. We were down but not out (yet) when Tomko was put in.

Loney and Repko and other young players need to learn that when they are out to impress, they have to play hard but not reckless. Repko could have stopped us from signing Pierre if he was around last year after getting off to such a hot start. Instead, he never got a shot to play. Ethier might not ever had the time to play either if Repko doesn't scale center field wall and ruin his ankle on a ball that wasn't close to being caught.

Loney should know better than to go all out while going toward the warning track, he has to be able to establish where he is in the field and go from there. I hope Kemp learned from this too after his shoulder injury proved to be minor compared to what it could have been.

While the walls should be padded as best as possible, to lay this at McCourt's feet is wrong. To blame Grady is wrong too. A major leaguer who wants to remain a major leaguer needs to use decent judgement. That and the fact that injuries and accidents will happen.

Ironically, I was at the game Friday and Shaun Livingston threw out the first pitch. Maybe he was contagious? He was taking pics with Chris Withrow too, hope that kid isn't doomed now that he's been infected with Clipper juice.

50, 51
I think they just took Stan Conte at his word. He said Schmidt was sound and they signed him. The Cubs and Mariners were after him too.

I think it was a good signing at the time and if he gets healthy, will help us. It didn't block others like the Pierre signing and there isn't a huge crop of pitchers going free agent next year. There are three CF though. Good ones. Although Tori Hunter went down yesterday.

As far as signings go, Slappy was not a good one because of the options we had and will have and the length of the contract. If Schmidt gets hurt, we'll get some insurance money. Pierre has never been on the DL. Where's Tonya Harding's ex living?

54. I remember JD Drew used to be "very mindful" of where the wall was, and would be loudly booed for his mindfulness.

Everyone's bashing Pierre like always. I am not even remotely a fan of his, but at the moment at least, it seems to me that he is pretty low on the list of the Dodgers problems. Put like Jim Tracy might: Do I think Juan Pierre should be playing center field for the Dodgers? No. Do I think the Dodgers have bigger problems? Yes I do.

51

I dont think pitchers just throw into a radar gun at will like a football player running the 40. They are pretty strictly regimented in throwing schedules and even report to spring 2 weeks before position players for proper arm conditioning before they air out their best. My understanding is Conte's blessing was on the Schmidt deal and no one in the planet knows Schmidt's situation better them him... so this might just be blame-less bad luck. Hopefully we get something from him in August.

57
Which Dodger problems do you rank above Pierre?

56 Heheh. Such a good point. I always felt Green used to be the same way - both about the wall and the ground in front of him. Maybe it's a no-win situation for an outfielder.

Fredo is the worst offensive CF in the NL with at least 250 PA's.

I'd say that's a pretty big problem.

59

Schmidt.
Wolf- fading fast/lasting 5 INN
Tomko is still on the team.
Nomar's Power is MIA
3rd base (the rumors of Betemit's resurrection may be exaggerated).
Ethier at the plate.
Kent in the field.
etc...

59 ---

The loss of the Cool-a-coo is definitely a bigger problem then Pierre. The replacement level ice cream sandwich thing we have now just isn't cutting it. ;)

59 I guess I knew this question was coming...

I think 3B is a bigger problem...but I'm not sure if the problem has more to do with a lack of offense from that position or the team's lack of commitment to make a decision there.

I think that the right side of our infield is a bigger problem. I think it's safe to say that more consistent production is expected from Kent/Nomar than we have seen. I don't profess to know the answer, but can Abreu/Loney be much worse?

Schmidt's problems have got to be up there. Sure, our pitching is deep, but why test how deep? I think that Tomko and Hendrickson just being on the roster is a bigger problem.

I hate making this kind of list because I think the list of positives is so much longer and I'm usually not one to dwell on the problems. Still, while JP is a thorn in the side of our lineup, he's not the only one.

Maybe it is easier to list what is NOT a problem with the Dodgers:

Saito
Penny
Lowe
Furcal (defense only)

59 - LA's "problems", prioritized:

1. Pierre's presence on the roster.
2. Pierre is the only CFer (sorry Kemp) in the organization, thus guaranteeing his playing time.
3. Little's insistence on batting him 1st or 2nd (with the exception of that short term demotion to #8).
4. Nomar not hitting.
5. Nomar in the 3-slot when playing.

After that, it's mostly getting Schmidt and Furcal healthy and Billingsley into the rotation. But Pierre is the source of the top 3 problems for this team, as far as I'm concerned.

54, 56
My point in simple terms:
1. pad the wall better
2. accidents and injuries are part of life
3. young players should temper their enthuisiasm to impress with a need to remain healthy in order to play
4. it wasn't Grady's fault for putting Loney in with a double switch

I think Pierre is a glaring problem that is at the root of the offensive struggles of the team. Nomar and Kent are looking sluggish and Russell looks worn down to me, he should have sat on Sat rather than Sunday. Grady had the guts to put Pierre in the 8 slot for two nights, he should return there for now. And he should rest Martin once a week.

The discussion was on whether or not Schmidt was the worst signing and my point was that it wasn't, Pierre was. Pierre bashing? I guess. I consider it Ned bashing. And now Grady's problem for not dealing with it as a manager.

With the lack of offense this past weekend, I'd hope we see Pierre dropped in the order and rested at least once in Toronto. Kemp, Kemp, Kemp, Kemp, and for good measure KEMP! He can lead us to the promised land.

So when Pierre and Nomar get hot all those problems disappear. Sweet.

65 Come on. There are so many good things going right now. Don't forget about Martin, and the rest of the bullpen that is performing well, and all the kids getting opportunities. Like anything, when things go badly, you see the negatives and when things go well you see the positives.

64 - In a world of limited resources surely it worse to spend $45M on a hitter who should hit no higher than 8th when we knew that coming in. I suppose once the season begins the amount of resources taken up by under-performing players is less relevant that the performance itself. But even if this is the case then Pierre by any measure if a greater offensive drag than Kent or Nomar as far as I know. Given our overall pitching performance Schmidt's performance, while disappointing has been compensated for. We have not been able to compensate for Pierre.

67 Well, if that was your main point, then we are on the same page. I agree that it was probably the worst signing of the offseason and I agree that Kemp is the man.

65- your list is incomplete. gonzo, wolf, broxton, bills, and of course martin need to be added as well.

68

Kind of funny since Nomar and Pierre hit 0.333 in the (completely embarrassing) Angles series.

62 - "Nomar's Power is MIA"

Pun intended? His power is indeed Hamm-like.

68, if Pierre and Nomar both evened out their career lines at the same time, it would at least help score some runs. That is if they remain in the same spots in the lineup. But I'm all for Loney and Kemp playing, I'd stick Ethier in CF.

Also, I saw Loney almost run into a tarp in Nashville. So, he was getting playing time in RF, and unless the ball is hit at you there's always a chance of getting injured.

For Bhsportsguy

Alex Ochoa (OF) 6/18/2007
Ochoa has signed a deal to play with the Hiroshima Carp of Japan's Central League for the rest of this season. Ochoa, who has played in Japan for the last four years, signed a spring NRI deal with the Red Sox over the winter, but he was released out of Triple-A in May.

With the short season leagues opening tomorrow, here's some findings from Kevin Goldstein about where most players come from that play in MLB.

Here are the raw totals for the 254 starters:

Draft, High School: 78 30.7%
Draft, College: 96 37.8%
Draft, JUCO 28 11.0%
FA – Latin America 48 18.9%
FA – Asia 4 1.6%

And of the 202 draft-eligible players (college, high school, JUCO), 74 were drafted in the first round.

And of the top 50 VORP batters, 17 were high school players, 22 were first round picks.

I know Nate and others believe that the for the success of the Dodgers and their minor league system, Logan White needs to apply his MLB Draft success to the international scouting (Latin America, Asia) and start signing some high ceiling talent for the Dodgers.

Off the top of my head, Tony Abreu and Chin-Ling Hu are the top international signees in the system and they were signed 4 years ago. With a legacy of Ramon and Pedro Martinez, Adrian Beltre, Raul Mondesi, Chan-Ho Park, Hideo Nomo, to Joel Guzman, Hong Chi Kuo and Takeshi Saito, the Dodgers know the value of making this a key component of their development system and hopefully we will see some signees when they can start announcing them in a few weeks and then start seeing them in the system soon.

With the short season leagues opening tomorrow, here's some findings from Kevin Goldstein about where most players come from that play in MLB.

Here are the raw totals for the 254 starters:

Draft, High School: 78 30.7%
Draft, College: 96 37.8%
Draft, JUCO 28 11.0%
FA – Latin America 48 18.9%
FA – Asia 4 1.6%

And of the 202 draft-eligible players (college, high school, JUCO), 74 were drafted in the first round.

And of the top 50 VORP batters, 17 were high school players, 22 were first round picks.

I know Nate and others believe that the for the success of the Dodgers and their minor league system, Logan White needs to apply his MLB Draft success to the Dodgers' international scouting side of the player development system (Latin America, Asia) and start signing some high ceiling talent for the Dodgers.

Off the top of my head, Tony Abreu and Chin-Ling Hu are the top international signees in the system and they were signed 4 years ago. With a legacy of Ramon and Pedro Martinez, Adrian Beltre, Raul Mondesi, Chan-Ho Park, Hideo Nomo, to Joel Guzman, Hong Chi Kuo and Takeshi Saito, the Dodgers know the value of making this a key component of their development system and hopefully we will see some signees when they can start announcing them in a few weeks and then start seeing them in the system soon.

74

If Kuo and Schmidt can go yard I bet she could hit one.

Oops sorry about that.

65 Yeah, I think to make a point you conveniently left off some other positives on a team that is still only spitting distance from first place. No Russell Martin? Your list lost credibility right there. As said above, Broxton and Billingsley should be on the list, too. Gonzo's been a pleasant surprise (save for his weak throwing arm, which isn't a surprise). Having Loney and Kemp on the team now are positives. Abreu's imperfect but he's been a decent spark. Wolf would have been a positive but he's been less and less effective the last few games. That would be a more complete and fair list, but granted there are right now just as many worries.

unless the ball is hit at you there's always a chance of getting injured

you need to reverse this statement for pitchers and Little Leaguers

76 I really need to call that guy. :)

83
So are you friends with Alex Ochoa or do you just know a lot of guys with the Hiroshima Carp, aka the Kansas City Royals of Japan.

I'm glad Loney doesn't appear to be hurt too bad. But, I have never seen a player get hurt on a play and not get up and get after the ball unless the player had some catastrophic injury that prevented them from moving or supporting their weight (torn ligaments, broken bone) or were unconscious. Never seen a player not complete the play because he was just in too much pain.

81. I just want to err on the side of caution.

55

do you own a slappy McPop up jersey?

84 I meant I should call the guy TC and I met at the L.A. City High School championship game at Dodger Stadium.

During one of our conversations, he said he had just spoken to Ochoa (he called him a good friend) and he said Alex had just been offered a contract to play in Japan. He told us how much fun the games are in Japan and how we should go and see some games there if given the chance.

He mentioned how much Alex was being offered to play and considering that he had a World Series ring, he felt Alex should go back to Japan.

85
I saw Brett Butler make a diving stop for a Tony Gwynn drive to left and then not get up as Gwynn and three teammates circled the bases.

Butler left the game, but he wasn't hurt all that badly. I think he stayed on the ground out of embarrassment.

Hopefully Billingsley starts the rest of the season.

Schmidt's situation reminds me of Nomo. The Dodgers at least got 1 good season (2003) out of Nomo before he crashed and burned.

TSN.ca "Canada's Sports Leader"

Scouting Report on Billingsley

"Though Billingsley is a power pitcher with mid-90s heat, he also has a fantastic curveball and great command of his pitches, which also include a strong slider."

Great command?

ESPN's nationally televised game today? Boston at Atlanta.

ESPN's nationally televised game Wednesday? Boston at Atlanta.

Thank you, Everything Sox Pro Network.

Eastcoast Sports Programming Network

Basically, yeah. Sox are #1, Yankees #2, Barry Bonds #3, and then there's the rest of us, whoever we are.

91 This year he has had good command.
10.29 K/9 3.08 BB/9 .221 BAA, .585 OPS Against.

I miss the Monday night West Coast games on ESPN which in L.A., invariably featured Oakland since the Dodgers and Angels couldn't be shown.

Nothing like sitting through a nice 3 1/2 hour Tony La Russa-managed A's game to get you ready for bed.

The plexi-wall should stay as is.
They have warning tracks for a reason.
Heed the warning.

94 - You're forgetting World's Strongest Man. I think they put that ahead of the Dodgers too.

91 Billingsley has a better than 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio; the league average is about 2:1. He also has thrown his curveball for strikes a lot more consistently than many veteran pitchers, like, say, Randy Wolf. I think it's a fair statement to say he has great command -- at least, this season.

89- i was at the game as well, i remember it for that as well as chip caray sitting right behind us. i just thought of that yesterday as well when i saw that prince fielder inside the park debacle.

85 "But, I have never seen a player get hurt on a play and not get up and get after the ball unless the player had some catastrophic injury that prevented them from moving"

See "Kemp, Matt."

I think I read where Loney said he was out for a bit, so that would explain why he didn't get up

Re: 90

Nomo also posted a 112 ERA+ in 2002. We got two great seasons out of him for a very reasonable contract, and it wasn't his fault that Tracy kept on trotting him out to get mauled in 2004.

WWSH

what are your guys thoughts on tejada in a dodgers uni? he seems like a guy that would want to stay at short though. plus his power is in decline, he doesnt seem that attractive.

104 - Blue and grey is slimming on anybody and he has that winning smile. Besides that three years ago maybe, but today no way.

Can this be right?

Baseball reference shows Penny's ERA at 2.18.

However his Park Adjusted ERA is 4.29.

Thats the largest split i've ever seen.

104 - He's also previously "insisted" that he remain at shortstop (and there seems to be mixed reviews on his defense at this stage in his career). He's signed through '09, at $13M per year, and Baltimore probably wants a king's ransom for him.

His eqa's the last few years have been in the mid-.290's, so if his power is diminishing, he's still reasonable productive.

He doesn't seem to have a fit on this roster with Furcal around, unless he's willing to change his position on changing positions. Even then he's too expensive in terms of the pitching that will have to be parted with to acquire him.

106
Penny ERA:

Home: 1.38
Road: 3.29

That would seem to support a large "Park Adjusted ERA" split. Also, wouldn't we expect to see large Park Adjusted splits for other Dodger pitchers as well? And, do we see such splits?

106 What about Jake Peavy.

ERA 1.82
Park Adjusted ERA 3.95

I don't buy into the Randy Wolf-bashing. He's had a couple of rough starts in a row, true, but most pitchers do. I think he'll be a productive member of the rotation through September. Schmidt's injury is a far bigger concern. Suddenly, Peavy, Young, and Maddux is looking very intimidating indeed.

106, 108 Park adjusted ERAs are not derived by looking at the individual pitcher's home-road splits, but by looking at the numbers for all pitchers who have pitched in the park, and adjusting from there. Otherwise the small sample size would render any park adjustment meaningless.

The stat JoeyP was looking (lgERA) at is not Penny's adjusted ERA, but the ERA for the league as a whole.

taylor holiday just tied the game for the anteaters with a two run shot, for fans of the CWS.

110 I don't think Wolf is anything to be worried about, either. For a while he was pitching better than we had any right to expect; now he's pitching a little worse. By the end of the season his numbers will probably look exactly like what we were expecting: a slightly above average pitcher, and a very capable #4 starter.

I remember being miffed we didn't go after Miggy in the winter of 2003 since we had a gaping hole at SS and he was one of my favorite players right in the prime of his career. If we had signed him we would have lost one number one (Elbert, Dewitt, Orenduff) and a 2nd rounder(Blake Johnson) which wouldn't have been to bad a price to pay for his production over the last 3 years. I guess the 2004 draft was not one of Logan's better one's? If Elbert comes back from surgery he may be the only one to make it to the majors from the 1st 5 rounds. Interesting draft in that it looks like some nice nuggets were overlooked in the 1st round by everyone(McGee, W Davis, Brignac, Gallardo). Quite a draft by the Devil Rays who could see 3/5 of their 2009 rotation and starting SS come out of that draft.

What do you guys think is most likely to happen?

1. Nothing really, we just go with youth mixed in with hoping that Nomar, Kent etc turn it around

2. We make some trades but they are marginal. Like reshuffling the deck a little in hoping we catch a few great months out of a veteran 3b or RF.

3. Make a truly impact-ful franchise changing trade.

111--That makes sense. I was under the impression that they were trying to say Penny's ERA would be 4.29 if he were just pitching in an average ballpark.

110 Nice feature in the L.A. Daily News last week.

107
He is a SS and you know how Ned loves his shortstops.

115
Unless the fat tub of goo hitting machine becomes available I don't think we make a franchise changing trade.

115 - Most likely 2, most preferred 1. There's all sorts of fantasy scenarios where we get someone like Cabrera or something, but I don't see those happening and I think I'd prefer to suck it up and see what happens.

115 I think #1 is the most likely course. It seems clear that mgmt is not going to give up on Nomar, Kent, or Pierre, and the other positions don't need upgrading.

I find (2) unlikely because marginal is exactly what we have already, so there's no need to trade for it. We have serviceable, somewhat adequate players in every role, up to and including the pinch hitters and backup catcher.

(3) is always a possibility, given Colletti's penchant for showmanship over smart maneuvering. This is a man who lusts after the show-stopper trade. Still, I think any such trade would mortgage the future to such an extent that even Colletti can see it's unwise.

If the Dodgers are not in first place at the deadline, it seems likely Ned will feel compelled to give the impression that he's trying to do something about it by making some kind of trade(s).

119 Terry Forster -- he of the 146 career OPS+, better than Duke Snider and Reggie Jackson -- would probably listen if Ned Colletti called.

115 Number 3 is the least likely because teams don't like make those deals unless absolutely forced.

As much as some would like to scrap it all and go young, it is hard thing to do and sell to your fan base.

Sure, those who venture here know the youngsters who are playing in Tampa Bay, Florida, Colorado, and Arizona but their fans have not embraced them yet.

Part of it may be just the pains of growing a fan base, Colorado led the league in attendance for many years but after trying different things to compete, they are now drawing almost half the fans they were drawing 10 years ago.

Even successful teamms, the Twins, A's and to a certain extent the Padres have problems getting folks to consistently attend games even though they compete on annual basis and are not filled with a lot of highly paid, underachieving players.

My point is that, as much it might make sense to deal a Tejada, Miguel Cabera or similar type player for a boatload of prospects, GMs on those teams are hesitant because even if it works out, the GMs that make the deals are not usually around to get the credit.

121 Listening to an interview with Ned on Friday, my hunch is number one too, not because he wouldn't go for number 3 but my impression is much more willing to see how the kids do than invest a lot of prospects for an underperforming veteran.

I think short of Miguel Cabera, who can play 3rd/OF, they could control for a few years and is both playing well and is a proven guy, they won't deal for a Dunn, Rolen, Glaus, or Dye kind of player.

124 - I agree with you for the most part, but it is pretty clear that Loria doesn't care about the fans in Florida. I think that is the allure of the Cabrera fantasy.

121
"This is a man who lusts after the show stopper trade"

Really?

125-Do you have a link to the interview? Or the station name? Thanks.

Not looking at numbers who was the best hitting pitcher you've seen at Dodger Stadium
1. Rick Rhoden
2. Rick Sutcliffe
3. Fernando
4. Fat Tub Of Goo Forster
5. Don Drysdale

Man we've had some nice hitting pitchers.

Billingsley "appears to the be leading candidate" for Thursday.

http://tinyurl.com/yuqdy

124--Dont you think the Dodgers will draw fans no matter whom they put out there thought?

I think his point is that other teams can ill afford to trade the marketable players that would be option 3 in the question.

There is some elasticity in the size of the market that attends Dodger games.

1991 - 3.3 million fans
1992 - 2.4 million fans
1993 - 3.1 million fans

129
Since I never saw Drysdale play, I would actually tab Andy Messersmith as the best hitting pitcher I've seen at Dodger Stadium with Fernando second.

If only 1992 had Daniels/Davis/Strawberry when they were all good ballplayers. That would have been fun to watch just like they promised us but those dang body and brain parts just wouldn't cooperate. I think Mike Piazza was payment for the fun the baseball Gods had at our expense in 1992.

I have to admit I'm impressed that no one blamed Loney's injury on Brett Tomko.

Actually, one person commenting on the Loney injury in the game thread did:

2007-06-17 15:42:39162. MMSMikey
151

put some of it on tomko too for continuing to throw batting practice.

75. I'd stick Ethier in CF.

This is a move I'd love to see. It's unlikely to happen because the Dodgers appear to have already decided that Ethier is not a centerfielder. Still though, while not as fast as Pierre or Kemp he appears to be a better defensive outfielder than either of them. Besides, on Saturday the FOX announcers referred to Ethier as "speedy." They may be on to something. :-)

I remember Andy but not his hitting.

133 List of Dodger's attendance figures from Baseball Reference:
http://tinyurl.com/bfb2n

Dodger attendance will be very good unless someone really messes things up, but there is still a meaningful difference between 3.1 million and 3.5 million; a half million more people times, say $20/person revenue = $10 million, just to make a ballpark guess.

Drysdale was the best hitting Dodger pitcher I've seen. Tony Cloniger the best non-Dodger.

137
Maybe Ethier can become our Edmunds. Edmunds didn't play CF full time until his 3rd year in the majors, plus he didn't show plus power until he became a full time CF. So if we carry this a step further, Ethier needs to play CF to unleash his power. It all seems so obvious.

128 Go to 570klac.com, Podcasting, and you can download or just listen to "PMS 6/15/2007, 2nd hour". If you can get by all the love tossed towards Ned by Petros and Money, you'll find a pretty good interview.

133 1992 was the last season the National League used "butts in seats" as their count for the official attendance. So its possible and probably probable, they sold close to 3 million seats but only 2.4 million actually showed up to games.

I think back then, they had a cut-off of 27,000 season tickets and you would have to think they would have done better than sell an additional 3,000 or so tickets per game on top of that.

138
In 1974, Messersmith batted .240, drew 11 walks and had eight doubles (including three in one game, a record for pitchers in the 20th Century) and a home run off of Clay Kirby of the Reds.

140
I know Cloniger had the greatest single offensive inning a pitcher ever had but you actually saw him hit? He would make a great subject for the Cardboard Gods. I used to read the back of his baseball card over and over and I was more in awe of him then Hank Aaron.

142
I think the Dodgers would be embarrassed if they went back to the "butt" in seats way of counting attendance. We have to lead the league in % of no shows for tickets sold.

142
The Dodgers also lost a few dates in 1992 because of "unpleasantness."

129 - Orel Hershiser and Tim Leary.

129 Rhoden. Like Bob, I was too young for Drysdale, his last year (1969) being my first fan year. Rhoden career:
BA OBP SLG *OPS+
.238 .253 .323 60

146 LOL - and I thought "unrest" was a pretty soft word!

Yes, Mr. Leary, him I remember being potent with the bat. Orel could handle the bat but it was never a case of me wanting to see Orel bat.

I saw Cloniger a couple times in 1965 and 1966. But I just looked up on retrosheet and the times he was in L.A. he did nothing more than a couple singles. How's that for memory. I was very impressed with the two grand slam game too, and that may have clouded my memory on when I actually saw him.

145 Here's a link to an article discussing this back in 2005.

http://tinyurl.com/create.php

That article says the average no-show rate for season ticket holders is between 15-20%.

Soon we will remember the "unpleasantness" like our parents remembered the Watts Riots. 15 years ago. Unbelievable.

Retrosheet can be your greatest friend, or your worst enemy.

152
Your link took me to tinyurl not the article.

150 - Not even the year he almost hit .400? I loved watching Orel hit.

152 Oops wrong url link for the story but the right one for Tiny Url.

http://tinyurl.com/2y2vcq

In the 1868 election, the Democrats referred to the Civil War as "the recent unpleasantness."

Besides the aforementioned slugging pitchers - two of whom I never actually saw hit live (but saw a few clips of Drysdale and Rhoden), I'd add Darren Dreifort to that list. He of the depressingly bloated contract and injury-prone career. I saw him hit a few times and the guy was impressive. He had a couple of good years with the bat, anyway. 6 home runs overall.

I loved watching Orel hit

So'd I. I loved his swinging bunt choppers over 3B.

Oh yeah, and Tim Leary was definitely the other one that stands out for me.

One last thought for now on attendance, of the three "sold out" games this past weekend, having gone to the Friday and Saturday's games, Friday had the most people at the game. But for a Saturday afternoon game, it was pretty crowded and as noted before, preferred parking is not always preferred when you are trying to get out of a full house at Dodger Stadium.

How could I forget Dreifort??? So the list keeps growing. We are spoiled with our hitting pitchers. Remove the DH so we can watch the Luzinski's of the world patrol the outfield again for all of baseball.

I seem (I have to qualify everything now) to remember Dreifort killing the ball in the College World Series.

129. From your list I'd go with Don Drysdale. I actually saw an even better hitting Dodgers pitcher. His name is Don Newcombe. Unfortunately, he never pitched at Dodger stadium. I only saw Newk on TV though as I attended my first Dodgers game in 1962.

162 I ended up at Sat.'s game as well, in the same section as DT game will be. I agree with your perceptions about the no-show count; I stayed until the bitter end, so getting out of the parking lot was pretty tough.

First time in awhile I had seen Tomko pitch in person; I had forgotten that he actually looks like he should be more successful. Schmidt was painful to watch; there just wasn't much there, outside of a some well-placed, but slow, pitches.

Frankie Rodriguez was tough. I wonder if that choppy motion is less stressful than it appears. During his celebration after string out Saenz to end it, Olmedo gave him quite a long look while slowly walking back toward the dugout.

Even after the tickets sold became the officially oxymoronic attendance figure, there used to be some mystery to what the figure would be. That's because they would count tickets sold as opposed to tickets distributed, leaving out tickets that were given away for free.

Now, I gather, they just count tickets distributed as the official attendance, which leaves us with the repetitive 56,000 number.

34 I did if you check the thread!

167 I don't think the people in the suites count in these figures but as Bob has pointed out, 56,000 is the max they can announce (at least for a regular season game)due to their occupancy permit.

162
Thanks for the link. The Lakers make it easy on their web site to donate any unused tickets to organizations. It would be cool if the better Dodger seats that aren't used were donated but they don't seem to have the same deal with ticketmaster that the Lakers have. The Dodgers charge you 2.00 to email a ticket while the Lakers/Clippers charge nothing. I would be curious to know if the no show rate has improved since all the teams have setup ticketmaster accounts for their season ticket holders and now everyone can forward or sell them with minimal work involved. From a subjective viewpoint we seem to have as many empty seats as ever in area's that you know are sold out.

165 I never saw Newk, even on TV, and I regret it.

Speaking of great hitting pitchers, Rick Ankiel has 19 homers and 52 rbi at Memphis. It would be fantastic to see the Cardinals give him a promotion as a outfielder.

165
The only person who ever saw Newcombe bat in person on this site is Don Burns but I haven't seem him post for a while. Hope he's okay and that we see him at the DT game.

153. The "unpleasantness" occurred the day before I retired. And my retirement luncheon was postponed because of it. The company actually went ahead and gave the luncheon in August. Which I thought was pretty nice of them since they were getting rid of me and the "unpleasantness" could have been a very convenient excuse to chuck the whole thing. :-)

172
Three dingers in one game this weekend. Now carrying a plus 600 slug%.

Ah, just one day at Ebbets field to watch Campy, Duke, Jackie, Newcombe, Hodges, Furillo, Pee Wee and company.

It would be fantastic to see the Cardinals give him a promotion as a outfielder

Can he play centerfield? Just asking...

173 - I just got an e-mail from him last week. He moved to Northern California (for good reasons) but sends his best.

170 One of the issues that gets UCLA fans (okay a small minority who populate fansites) is the no-shows for the non-conference games against the Sisters of Immaculate Hearts of the world. And from what I can tell, the Pac-10 counts butts in seats as opposed to tickets sold.

What really riles up the message board guys is that a majority of the no-shows are the long time supporters who sit in the premium seats.

UCLA is concerned about the no-shows, they sent out several e-mails to season ticket holders, set up a ticket exchange program, etc.

I'm still not sure if there is a way to get people to see Yale, one of their 2007-2008 non-conference opponents in December but if back to back Final Fours and Kevin Love won't bring fans out, what will?

179 Back to back Final Fours, Kevin Love, and free Dippin' Dots. Who doesn't love Dippin' Dots?

Angels show no mercy

>>> The Angels simply own the Dodgers.

No Dodger could offer an explanation for the lopsided results in the Freeway Series, in which the Angels won five of six games, but the answer was simple, really. The Angels had better defense. They had much better pitching. And they had really good hitting. <<<

http://www.presstelegram.com/sports/ci_6166421

177 That's where he is playing in AAA right now. That is some pretty good output from a CF.

Ankiel is striking out more than once every four at bats and doesn't walk at all. While he would be a nice story, I can't see him doing all that much in the majors.

Power may be key for Halos, Blue to go far

>>> The Angels rank ninth in the 14-team American League in slugging at .416, and 11th in home runs with 54.

The Dodgers rank 28th among all teams in slugging at a miserable .378 and dead last in home runs with 44 in 69 games. <<<

http://www.presstelegram.com/sports/ci_6166419

Dodgers Notebook: Loney fortunate it wasn't worse

>>> Third baseman Andy LaRoche returned to the Las Vegas 51s lineup after missing the previous three days with a sore shoulder. ... <<<

http://www.dailybreeze.com/sports/articles/8046067.html

"A Message From Juan Pierre" on FJM.

So is Troy Glaus gonna be a Dodger?

184 - I hesitate to post this because I know you're fundamentally doing a nice thing, but I don't think you need to post so many links to Dodger news stories.

I think you can operate under a basic assumption that many commenters here do look around the web for Dodger stories, especially from the various local papers. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I'm sort of feeling like we're getting to the point of overkill.

Actually, the story in 185 about LaRoche was news to me, but linking to a story from a local paper that tells us that the Dodgers are offensively challenged (184) - I think that's an example of one you could have left out.

Hope I don't sound like a jerk.

188-Not to start any conflict...but it helps those of us who may not have as much time to search the web, and come here to talk Dodgers with informed fans.....Though you are right about the offensive woes piece.....Sp I guess I agree....links to up to date personnel info are helpful...to me at least...

188. Okay, I'll cut back. My assumption was that a lot of people on the site don't live in Southern California and don't necessarily check the online versions of the newspapers unless someone points to a link. But you're the boss so I'll grab ahold of myself. :-)

189/190 - I see Lex's point. So yeah, please go ahead and continue, but just with a bit more moderation.

How about just no more posting blurbs and links from stories about how the Dodgers are offensively challenged? What's the opposite of news? Un-news, I suppose. ;-) So no un-news like that, but appreciate your diligence.

Have their really been 8 hit batters in the UCI-Fullerton game? Or is the online thing I'm following all wonky?

Also, there are links on the right to the main Dodger beat writers.

I will post links to local stories when its late (or early) and they have information that folks would be interested here.

Generally, while trying to be consistent in not reposting content from premium sites (ESPN Insider, Baseball Prospectus or Baseball America), I will also selectively post tidbits of information that again is interesting, hoping that folks find it fun and informative and maybe they will decide to subscribe to the site too.

193 So the former Palisades High coach has turned up in Omaha.

191. Okay. Being retired I probably have too much time on my hands. :-) Moderation shall be the watchword going forward.

And has Irvine really made six errors?

the GCL Dodgers roster has been updated

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ros&cid=465

interestingly, only one 2007 draftee so far is on the roster and that is behemoth of a player, 18yr old Franklin Jacobs.

Kyle Orr is still listed under Catchers and there looks to be an interesting international player in Jesus Gomez. He is interesting because he is only 18 and is a 6'2 195lb left handed swinging first basemen.

196 - It really is the ultimate pot-calling-the-kettle-black, if you think about it, considering no one asked me to do this.

185. Darn, I made a promise to myself on Thursday to not watch LaRoche until for a week to stop myself from watching every game, hoping LaRoche would suddenly break out of his struggles, and stressing out when he goes 0-for-4 with three groundouts. So I kept that promise, thinking LaRoche was doing really well because I wasn't watching, and I come on here and what do I find out? He missed three games due to an injury. So much for that.

Ogden has been updated too and in an interesting twist, 3rd round pick Austin Gallagher will start his career in the Pioneer League. The last two years, it seemed all our top draft prep prospects started in the GCL.

And they're dancing on Jamboree Road!

another thing, Alex Garabedian, an offensive minded catcher drafted in the 8th round out of the College of Charleston, is listed under pitchers. hopefully thats a mistake.

It was positive for this eastoner to here something about LaRoche. But it is not really illuminating. Is this the shoulder that had the labrum surgery. I haven't found much info on how repairable this kind of injury is. LaRoche used to amaze people in batting practice. His homers since the injury have been what? Basically nill? I am afraid I am worried.

201 Now that you have 5 years before you have to protect players, it probably isn't a bad idea to have them play in the GCL.

However, for a player like Josh Bell, if he doesn't move up to the Cal League this year, he may not even be in AA until 2009.

Hear. Sorry. I noticed he wasn't playing but heard nothing. I think he got a hit today or yesterday.

198 Is Kyle Orr really catching or is that a mistake?

Gomez is definitely an interesting player to watch.
"You said it, man. Nobody {ahem} with the Jesus." Sorry, couldn't resist a Lebowski quote before taking off for the day.

205

thats why it surprised me when i saw Gallagher listed under the Raptor's roster. Personally, I am a big fan of pushing prospects, especially highly rated ones.

201 Interesting that the one player most scouts had deemed "not ready to hit pro pitching" is the one player who will be skipping a level. Obviously there is a large disconnect between White and other scouts regarding Gallagher's current abilities.

Yes, Mr. Leary, him I remember being potent with the bat. Orel could handle the bat but it was never a case of me wanting to see Orel bat.

I remember Tim Leary hitting the ball with authority & when i say that i mean there was a different sound when he connected. Fernando,Dreifort,Orel all great hitters also, i remember watching Fernando hit a ball half way up the RF bleachers once, monster shot like K/Guo.

LaRoche did have a single yesterday, btw.

Someone I've never heard of was the hero in that game for the 51s, though. John Lindsey(?) drove in the winning run, and also slammed a two-out homer in the fourth, giving him 3 in 3 games.

211 John Lindsey, 30 years old, bounced around (Colorado, Seattle, Florida orgs, Independent league), never above AA before this year. 6'3", 240, R, R, 1B-DH. 56 games in Jacksonville. I guess he got Loney/Mitch Jones spot in Vegas?

If you're wondering how the Nationals are doing against the Tigers tonight, Don Sutton just said "If you don't turn those three double plays, you're down by 13."

And Guillen is a triple short of a cycle through 5.

204. LaRoche used to amaze people in batting practice. His homers since the injury have been what? Basically nill? I am afraid I am worried.

LaRoche has only three home runs all year. The thing that concerned me while watching him during his callup was how infrequently he actually drove the ball. Sure he walked a lot and that was good. But I didn't see any of the power he is supposed to have. And I don't know what part his shoulder injury is playing in this but I'm guessing it has something to do with it.

214. Here's what Logan White had to say about LaRoche in the chat:

"909ddgerfn: I've noticed Andy LaRoche hasn't been hitting with a lot of power lately, do you think he is still lingering from his labrum injuries or do you believe this is something he'll be able to work out of?

White: Good question. I think it is a little of both, but Andy has always been a slow starter, and I expect him to really heat up the second half. I think you'll see his power numbers go up once he becomes a Major Leaguer. "

Maybe worth noting upon his 26th home run:

Prince Fielder:

GPA: .327
Home Runs as % of Fly Balls: 26.6% going into tonight.

Pretty impressive even if he looks like he swallowed Junior Spivey.

Guillen up now in DC . . .

. . . . tapper to the pitcher. He'll need a National comeback or a few Tiger baserunners to get another shot.

214

Exactly

Laroche was smart enough to take pitches, like a dumb person who is smart enough not to open his mouth so that his ignorance will be broadcasted. The truth is coming out. When an advanced prospect shows almost no power at Vegas, something is awry.

Shoulderr injuries and surgeries need to be taken more seriously by the people in charge. Left to his own devices and pulled by the marketplace, an athlete is apt to downplay them.

The yellow flags were sticking out of the shoulders of both Laroche and Schmidt. I was hopeful that Conte's history with Schmidt would allow Ned to make a more informed investment. Unfortunatly the results have only reinforced my view that Conte's primary talent is one for self-aggrandizement in the press. Once again the Dodgers got taken while "showing the public" how much they "want to win" by spending (wasting) money on a free agent.

The Dodgers got taken by Schmidt and his agent.

Don't think this has been posted yet:

Monday's move followed Schmidt's Saturday start, after which he admitted that the condition of his shoulder had not changed since his first pitch of Spring Training.

220

Wonders of wonders that Sluething Stan couldn't drag it out of Schmidt despite all that time together with the Giants. Once again, failed process bites the Dodgers.
Rather than pay through the nose in a sellers market, the Dodgers should have heeded the warning signs -- the repeated shoulder problems, the diminished life on Schmidt's fastball, the injury cascade. In his next life, Schmidt comes back as Joe Mays. Or DJ Houlton.

Or Scott Erickson.

Or Dave Goltz.

At least it is only a three year deal.

I doubt Schmidt was signed without undergoing an thorough physical. Remember, the Red Sox / Drew deal was snagged for awhile due to findings on the physical. I would imagine the physical is SOP. I would be curious to know what Schmidt's physical's results were.

Re: JD Drew contract

"The Boston Globe reported that the Red Sox would be able to opt out of Drew's contract after three years if he has major right shoulder woes in the third year of the deal. If Drew has a significant injury to the right shoulder in the fourth year of the deal, the Red Sox could void the fifth year."

I have a hard time believing that all of Schmidt's problems materialized on his very first pitch of spring training. Is it possible? Sure. Is it probable? No.

226
That seems kinda ridiculous. If he has shoulder problems (which he apparently does), said problems probably aren't going to hold off another 3 years until they cause problems.

221 I would actually like to see Houlton pitch again with us. From what I understand, his minor league numbers have improved. Very curious to see how he would fare.

220 Where is that quote from?

Edwin Jackson is starting tonight against the D-Backs. That would mean his next start would be Sunday against the Dodgers. However, given that his record is 0-8 he may not still be in the Rays rotation unless he does well tonight.

Where is that quote from?

This Dodgers.com article:

http://tinyurl.com/3yr3jt

In his next life, Edwin Jackson will come back as Jose DeLeon.

227 Agreed, but how are the Dodgers supposed to know that? They can ask the scouts, look at the film, check his radar readings and administer the physical. After that, it's a judgment guess.

Current Friend Jayson Werth has moved on down to first base down at the Jake, as apparently not even COLE HAMELS is immune to American League offenses. 10-1 Tribe, and Casey Blake's hitting streak looks to be over barring 9 or more runs scored by the Phils in the top of the ninth...

Once down 9-1, Nationals are now down 9-8 in the bottom of the ninth, no outs, runners at first and second, and former Tiger D. Young is up.

The Ogden Raptors' roster looks pretty banal as far as prospect talent goes. A lot of late-round college players who are just roster filler. Gallagher is a strange exception, but the Dodgers appear to want to keep the younger guys in the GCL, which is a contrast with the way they used to do things. Loney, Miller, Broxton, Billingsley, Elbert and many other big name Dodger prospects started out in the Pioneer League as teenagers.

And I have read that Kyle Orr is definitely going to be playing first base in the GCL, which makes it interesting with Franklin Jacobs and this new Latino first baseman on the same team.

It isn't that some magical probe would have revealed Schmidt's shoulder problems. It's the failure to piece together so many clues. Seemingly Conte would have some insights. Sheesh, Schmidt has been throwing creampuffs since day one of spring training. Further, if you're thinking about giving a pitcher $47 million, shouldn't you have thorough scouting reports? It had been fairly obvious and publicized his litany of shoulder ailments, plus the decline of his pitch quality.

(236: Tigers win.)

Dodger49--I really appreciate your news links and it helps those of us not in LA, to find Dodger stories not in the mainstream sources (Dodgers.com, LA Times). I've never really known of the smaller papers you've linked some of the stories from, so I think its a help. I especially like you including the main blurbs from the stories. Thats very helpful in determing whether to read them or not.

220--If Schmidt's shoulder feels the same now as it did in spring training---then what in the world was the propaganda about concerning Schmidt's DL trip? All we heard was about was how Schmidt looked great and was progressing fine. Did he just since Saturday finally come clean to the doctors about his shoulder?

239 Too bad, more interesting if they had blown it.

When I finally ate a creampuff, I realized that it would be very hard to throw one with any velocity.

239
I got home for the end of the Nats game. Bob Carpenter sounded like someone told him his puppy died at the end of the game.

Rays lead DBacks 2-0 in the 2nd.

238 He finished off season throwing 6 innings and giving up 3 runs while striking out 7 at AT&T against the Dodgers on October 1st.

His signing was almost universally approved both on the player and contract length.

Its true, this is not a new injury but it is certainly something that could be reviewed and examined prior to the deal but sometimes all the exams in the world are not going stop an injury from reoccuring.

There is no such thing as a completely healthy player, some have been fortunate to escape pro-longed injury but for the most part, it is just part of the game.

What I'm saying is that if it was so obviously a bad signing, then you would have expected a bigger outcry against it instead of the praise it did get.

Has it worked out, not so far but that can be said for a lot of free agents. Whether its Carl Pavano, A.J. Burnett, Randy Johnson (2nd trip to DL), Drew, Lugo (not injured but performance issues), our own lovable JP, Eric Milton, etc. Bartolo Colon hasn't been healthy since he won his Cy Young award.

I don't know what else to say, except you can remove the risk by never signing a free agent but other than that, there is not much due diligence teams can do aside from get trusted advice, good medical evaluations and hope the player doesn't ride a motorcycle or any household chores.

Is Gallagher the one who got bounced out of his first school for being a jerk? Maybe they think Ogden is a safer place for him to be. It's not impossible, but probably more difficult to get in real trouble in Ogden. The correlation of trouble and booze availability is strong.

242 He really is awful. He spends a lot of time on commentary like "Well, if the Nationals can get a couple of men on base here and then squeeze out two or three hits they'll be just a homer or two away from being right back in this . . . ."

246
And yet I own his brand of scorebook!

240 You should know by now that players, being the competitors that they are, are sometimes not very forthcoming on their injuries and how long they have felt that way.

I think that is especially true when it comes to veterans on the other side of 30.

Schmidt probably felt he could gut his way through a few starts and eventually the shoulder (or whatever ails him) would start to feel better but it never did.

What he probably didn't want was surgery and the ordeal that follows but now it looks like that is a possibility.

Edwin Jackson is back where it all started for him as he takes the mound of his greatest triumph. May the smell of Arizona unleash the success that was his for the taking. Tampa Bay has given him as long a leash as any young pitcher with talent but no results can expect. It is time for him to pay them back and book a reservation in the rotation of the next great "beast from the east who pays the least".

246 He does prescribe in the rally killing homer, he'll never get a network job without that kind of insightful commentary.

250 I meant he does not prescribe to the rally killing homer.

238 The Schmidt signing was generally reviewed as a positive move, not without risk, but hedged (slightly) by being for only three years. Last year Schimdt made 32 starts, 213 1/3 IP, with a 3.59 ERA, 125 ERA+, 1.261 WHIP. If he fooled the Dodgers, maybe he fooled the whole National League? It his decline was so obvious, why didn't he get lit up repeatedly last year?

244

Universally approved? The Giants, who knew Schmidt best, showed very little interest in resigning him. Maybe they were listening to someone other than Conte. Maybe they were heeding the decline in stuff.

As for the happy buzz when Schmidt was signed, some of that was from the lemming crowd that is bored for any baseball news in the winter.

Schmidt's stuff generally has been in decline and the litany of shoulder ailments certainly gave one pause.

245 I think that was Lambo?

252 or what bhsportsguy wrote in 244.

What I'm saying is that if it was so obviously a bad signing, then you would have expected a bigger outcry against it instead of the praise it did get

I think it was a case of the supply of good pitching being low, so it was hard to criticize the Dodgers for taking a chance on a guy with at least a proven upside.

That said, there were quite a few Giants fan saying Schmidt had diminished velocity during the 2nd half of last season. I dont think many Dodger fans panned the move bc not many seen many of Schmidt's starts--I know I didnt.

It was probably a risk worth taking given what was available in the market. If the Dodgers have 120 mils to spend, I'm glad they at least spent it on one high upside Schmidt, rather than spend it on 3 Nomar's. [Insert Gritty average 8mil a yr veteran]

{231}

Thanks for the heads up Dodgers49.

It was Lambo. He is a local guy who had a colorful high school career. Could pitch to.

All I know about the Schmidt signing is that when I went to the eye doctor, I was told that I was legally blind in my hindsight.

Go figure.

So at one point will the descending OPS of A Jones meet the ascending OPS of Nomar?
I predict next Sunday.

At least Nomar has his contract what in the world is up with A Jones? How many millions is he costing Boras who last winter was whispering something about an Arod type of deal.

259
Hindsight is easy but DSFAN was critical of the signing when it happened. I guess the rest of us were just lemmings. Luckily I turned right at some point but unfortunately TJ Simers turned with me.

253 I remember a lot of comments like this one from Jon Heyman at SI.com, "For the price of Gil Meche, [the Dodgers] signed Jason Schmidt and Randy Wolf, enabling them to construct a deep rotation to go along with an almost-as-deep bullpen and their long litany of talented youngsters."

261 All I can say is that Saturday's start was definitely painful to watch and, I'll assume, pitch. At least the weather was nice.

Man, Edwin Jackson can't find the strike zone. 3-2 D-Rays.

I would like a stipulation of the Metaphor Court that lemmings do not actually engage in mass suicides.

T.J Simers was kind of smirking on his morning radio show today saying he knew it was a mistake signing Schmidt.

260 Jones is costing himself a lot more than whatever he's costing Boras.

Schmidt had a physical before signing. IANAD, but it looks like bursitis isn't visible on an X-ray, or CT scan, unless it's calcific bursitis. It probably hurt, or felt sore, but maybe no more than usual.

http://tinyurl.com/3xdw8z

I didn't love the Schmidt signing, but, since I wasn't crazy about the Furcal signing either, I decided to keep it under my hat. I think. I could look it up. Pierre was signed first and was the central problem. As far as that goes, The Player abides.

254, 258- Thanks.

264. Man, Edwin Jackson can't find the strike zone. 3-2 D-Rays.

Well, he's made it through three innings. I'd love to see him go another three because I suspect that would earn him another start and I would consider that a win for us on Sunday. :-)

270 It could also set up what I call the Jose Lima start where he summons his best game of the year against the Dodgers.

260---Andruw Jones is striking out more this year, but he's also having some bad luck. His BABIP is only .244

At .208/.307/.400---if Jones BABIP normalizes, he'll probably still get respectable numbers. Not as good as his previous years, but not a disaster. His current OPS+ is still 90.

Dioner Navarro is even more unlucky.
His BABIP is just .208

270

true. but i'm still rooting for the guy, he has a great fastball but no control over it & no movement. His curve balls today are all up so the D-Backs are hitting him pretty hard so far.

Schmidt was hailed as one of Ned's better 2007 FA signings. However, many also noted at the time that SF, the team that should have known his condition, was apparently not interested in resigning Schmidt.

SF, instead of resigning their ace of the precious 4 or 5 years, was desperately trying to throw boatloads of $$$ at Zito. It should have been a cautionary note for SF not to be at all interested in Schmidt.

However, the euphoria of signing a "genuine" ace overwhelmed any though process that might have gone on.

Schmidt might be Ned's Dreifort/Brown/Perez. I guess every Dodger GM has one eventually.

275 Cashman has Pavano, Wright, trading for Kevin Brown and Randy Johnson.
Riccardi has Burnett and Ryan.
Billy Beane doesn't sign big money guys for long term deals but he does try to get deals with his players to avoid arbitration. So now he has issues with Harden, Hudson, Bradley, Kotsay, etc.
Stoneman with Colon.

And I could go on and on. There is always a risk when you make these deals but the key is to be prepared when your guys get hurt.

276 I meant to say Street not Hudson (I was thinking Huston)

Our old friend Odalis Perez beat the Cardinals tonight for his fourth win (4-7). He intentionally walked Pojols twice so it appears he's learned his lesson. :-)

275 Kevin Brown may have been overpaid (for the time) and surly (reportedly), but he was a significantly above-average starter (ERA+: 148, 167, 152, 169) for 3.5 of his 5 seasons in L.A. before the Yankees took his contract off the Dodgers' hands.

if they are putting gallagher in Ogden, i wonder where they will put more advanced prep players like withrow, watt and lambo.

272/273

i dont think you can just look at BABIP by itself and say "oh his BABIP is low, he has been lucky". You need to correlate it to line drive percentage i think.

279 I am just saying that every move has some risk involved.

The great thing about the Kevin Brown deal was not only getting rid of the contract but we still have value from that deal because we got Weaver (who became Morris (who had Tommy John surgery and Mattingly) plus Brazoban.

Edwin Jackson is out of the game with what appears to be an elbow injury.

283
I thought it was a hand injury.

the D-Backs announcer did say that it was probably caused when Edwin was batting, so hopefully it wasn't an elbow injury.

280 -- Logan White already said that Withrow is going to the GCL. I read the same thing about Watt, but I don't recall if it was White who said it. A lot of surnames beginning with W in this post.

282 Oh, I agree with you. I was objecting to Brown being lumped in with Dreifort and Perez (Carlos, I assume) in 275.

I started to mention the return on the trade as well, but didn't. Weaver was an average starter for two Dodger seasons, so that is certainly not a bad trade given the circumstances. All the Yankees have to show for it is Brown's 35 starts over two seasons, with that one post-season raking by the Red Sox.

286

i read the same thing about Gallagher but somehow he ended up in Ogden.

272, 273, 281

regfairfield is the person we want for this, I think, but I'll throw the numbers out there.

A Jones line drive percentage is 17.7% with a BABIP of .244

I believe that his BABIP should be higher based on that. I think a rough rule is you add 12 to the line drive rate to get expected BABIP. I think really you also have to look at fly ball and ground ball rates.

In 2005 his BABIP was also .244, off of a line drive percentage of 16%. And yet his batting average was actually higher than his BABIP, at .263. This is because he hit 51 home runs.

And this gets to what I think Jones' real problem is. He may be getting slightly unlucky, but he's just not hitting the home runs like he used to. He has just 11 this year, on a pace for 25 or so.

Navarro's line drive percentage is 15.8%. He may be getting unlucky, but he's also not hitting the ball hard very often.

And I object to Colon and Stoneman being lumped together. Colon was productive until last year. Very productive. Something like Cy Young productive.

DRays have pushed it out to 5-2, two outs top of the 6th, runner on 2nd.

wow Lackey just turned into goo in the 5th.

So a 2% difference in LD% is the difference between hitting the ball hard and not hitting the ball hard?

290 Bartolo's results are a bit mixed, yes?

2004- ERA of 5, but made all his starts and Angels in playoffs.
2005- Cy Young, deserved.
2006- 10 starts injured and not good.
2007- 10 starts, numbers as bad as last year.

293 According to Hardball Times, "Line drives are not necessarily the hardest hit balls, but they do fall for a hit around 75% of the time."

So, assuming all the added line drives replace non-line drive outs, 2% more LD% is 1.5% more hits (assuming all the line drives replace non-line drive outs), or .015 increase in BA?

If the DRays hold on to what's now a 6-2 lead in the top of the 7th, Edwin Jackson will have come up one out short of his first win of the season (against eight losses). Bummer.

289--I did the calculations based on Regairfield's article last year.

He stated that:
75% of line drives turn into hits.
22.7% of ground balls turn into hits.
21.7% of fly balls turn into hits.

Navarro's 2007 percentages so far are:

GB: 42.1%
FB: 42.1%
LD: 15.8%

Therefore, to calculate his expected hits:
134 X .421 X .227 = 12.80
134 X .421 X .217 = 12.25
134 X .158 X .750 = 15.88

The 134 is Navarro's In play ABs (Total Abs-K's)

Expected Hits: 40.93

40.93/163= .251 Expected Batting Average.

Navarro's actual batting average this year is 28/163= .172

So, Navarro's gotten very unlucky this year. Its just so much easier to look at BABIP (when its as low as Navarro's was), rather than to do all of the above calculations.

I suspect Andruw Jones has a similar unlucky streak, although it may not be as pronounced as Navarro's since AJ is K'ing much more this year.

There've been a couple references to the Giants not trying to re-sign Schmidt, implying this should have been a warning.

Kent was quoted earlier this year (Dodgers.com, I think) saying the Giants often don't make much effort to re-sign their own free agents. Said he pretty much knew he wouldn't have the chance to stay with them, that they never made him an offer,IIRC.

About that same time Schmidt said something similar. SF has re-signed some. But they don't seem to make much of a move on many of their FAs, according to these two Dodgers.

This was discussed on DT earlier this season with links to what the two said, if someone wants to look it up.

If the Dodgers had someone assigned to watch Schmidt every time he pitched late last year, they might have picked up some things. But really, how practical would that have been?

Orange Alert for the cycle for Brendan Harris in Arizona.

297 OK, so, for an example, if Navarro's LD% went up 2% and they all replaced fly balls:

134 X .421 X .227 = 12.80
134 X .401 X .217 = 11.66
134 X .178 X .750 = 17.89

Expected hits: 42.35

42.35/163= .260 Expected Batting Average
for an increase of .009.

287 - THT has his predicted batting average at .244 actually. His PrOPS is .616, which is not good, but not nearly as awful as his .487.

I've felt that at least some of that has to do with speed, but I could be wrong. It just seems like fast guys are more likely to get lucky but fat guys get unlucky.

Here's the PrOPS for LA

http://tinyurl.com/26c47j

I know if you get more specific, infield fly balls have something like a 4% chance of being a hit.

294 Colon had a good year in 2005, but the only reason he won the Cy Young was because he led the league in wins.

Johan Santana probably should have won (he'd be working on 3 straight right now), and Mark Buehrle, to name another, should have also finished ahead of Colon.

Colon: 21-8, 223 IP, 120 ERA+, 157/43 K/BB
Santana: 16-7, 232 IP, 153 ERA+, 238/45 K/BB
Buehrle: 16-8, 237 IP, 143 ERA+, 149/40 K/BB

298 - depends on what you're looking for I guess, but if you're gonna spend $15 million a year, it makes sense to do extra research

The regfairfield endorsed system is, as has been mentioned, adding .12 to the LD% to get expected BABIP. He doesn't break down each category. I'm not sure if one method works out better than another (the regairfield--and I saw Marc Normandin use it the other day--way is easier; I don't know who actually came up with it) Using that system, and figuring all the extra hits Navarro would have gotten were singles, it looks like Navarro's line would be .227/.289/.301.

Cesar Izturis made his MLB debut in 2001, as a 21yr old.

He put up .269/.279/.388 over 134Abs.
Tony Abreu is at .270/.286/.405 over his first 74 Abs.

I realize that Abreu is bigger physically than Izturis, but their production at the minor league level and both's inability to walk or hit for much power---is cause for concern.

I really wouldnt mind if Ned traded Abreu, as long as he got back something useful.

Andruw Jones's BABIP as a function of LD% line:.255/.348/.447

303 OK, Cy Young, not totally undeserved then.

I agree Santana should probably have own, 5 less wins notwithstanding. Colon was 3rd in WHIP at 1.159, but Santana was ridiculous at 0.971, with Buehrle 7th at 1.183. Santana's Ks led the AL and his raw ERA was 0.01 off the AL lead (Millwood). Note: Colon's ERA was 8th but only 3rd on the Angels' staff, behind Washburn (4th) and Lackey (6th).

Figgins is 5 for 5 through 7 innings in Anaheim. It's 9-9 after a Chad Qualls meltdown in the 7th.

Mike Lamb made a pretty horrible judgment call on that fifth hit. It's possible Figgy would have beaten out the chopper no matter what, but Lamb was out of position, and gave Qualls no chance of getting him.

What happened to Morgan Ensberg? The year the 'Stros went to the World Series was supposed to be his break out year of stardom. Is he hurt or is this what Houston really has as a 3B investment?

OT but my computer has been infected by spyware and malware and it just started 3 days ago or so. Ive ran numerous scans with a couple of different protection software (norton, adware, trend mirco) and none of them have worked. My computer is still super slow, some functions dont work and constant IE popups come up even when im using firefox. Does anyone have any suggestions they can offer to aid me because this is totally annoying.

Seems weird that the Angels are playing Houston before the Dodgers do.

Growing up, I saw a lot of Dodgers-Astros games. There always seemed to be lots of tickets to see the Astros in the 1970s. And the Braves.

312
You could always just completely wipe the hard drive and transfer all your data on to something else like an iPOD and then reload what you want.

312- I'd try Spybot Search and Destroy.

http://www.safer-networking.org/en/index.html

If that doesn't do it, you could try Windows System Restore. It's preinstalled, and should have been automatically backing up your registry. Just tell it restore to some point prior to your infection. If that doesn't work, you could be looking at formating your harddrive and reinstalling everything. Hope you were diligent in backing up your data!

cesar's minor league numbers

262/.297/.332

abreus minor league numbers not including AAA this year

.300/*.344/.424

i probably messed up the OBP by a couple points. But Abreus baseballcube record is divided among two names.

312

What you can do is run Windows in safe mode, and then try to run your anti-spyware software.

I forgot to say: you've been scanning while in safe mode, right? If you're not, try that as step zero. Tap the F8 key right after POST on the boot to get it to start in safe mode.

318

i havent been scanning in safe mode, why would that matter?

I second Bob's diagnosis. If you have multiple drives or partitions, just copy all your files to a non-boot drive and reinstall windows re-formating the drive/partition. It's a good idea to reinstall windows every couple of years anyway.

If you really want to slug your way through get Hijackthis. Searching for it should bring up some helpful forums that will assist you in getting the most out of the program as it can be quite cryptic.

"Safe mode" is not an ironically chosen name. You get a barebones OS loaded when you do that and it's quite likely that your nasty bit of spyware is hiding in something that won't be used when in safe mode.

okay im gunna go huntin for some spyware, i hope i bag some wall trophy ones!

Figgins bidding for a 6 for 6 night in Anaheim.

Wow. Paul LoDuca's spirit lives in Southern California.

WOW did Figgins just clutch up!!

and btw Mark Grace is quite fun to listen to, especially when his team gets schooled by Brendan Harris and his DRays...

New post up top.