Kemp, Ethier, Gonzalez, Martin, and Loney must all be regular starters if we are going to win more games than the Padres for the division.

http://tinyurl.com/3b7c8y

Skipping the fact that Depo isn't actually unemployed, I gave up on it when I got to:

"The trade might've looked even better for the Dodgers had Hee Seop Choi not suffered injuries that derailed his career and ultimately headed back to Japan."

That's some careful research there, boys.

To be fair, we really dont know that.
I'm sure McCourt is livid about the his money Ned spent on Pierre, Nomar, and Schmidt. Consequently, at the end of the year if the Dodgers have failed to make the playoffs---Ned might feel that low tolerance.

Paying two fired GMs for years they arent working for the Dodgers---might not seem economically feasible for the McCourts though.

He plays for the KIA Tigers.

Really great seeing Loney live and in person. I had the same reaction Jon did when Loney got his third hit: .500! I'm really happy to see him doing so well. Besides losing, I was most disappointed about Russell Martin. I mean, three (!) strikeouts? C'mon, and I was talking him up to my friend. Oh well, he'll get them next time.

All in all, a fun game, first one of 2007 I've been to. Going to a 51's/Sidewinders game in about a week. Who should I watch for?

1. harder it is to believe that the Dodgers actually had Paul D. as their GM, and
2. harder it is to believe they actually fired him.

I'm guessing there are plenty of things that Depo knows about baseball that Ned doesn't. On the flipside, I doubt there's anything Ned knows that Depo doesn't (other than how to mingle at Christmas parties, etc.).

I also think the Juan Pierre brouhaha is a little overstated. I mentioned before how the contract was a bad one, but it doesn't mean he's terrible. Some folks just seem to have it in for JP. I also think his fly ball tracking is improved since May. OPS is SLG plus On Base. There is no way you can expect a singles and doubles hitter to have a tremendous SLG percentage, so his OPS should be less than say... Babe Ruth by default.

On the bright side, he's not the worst player the Dodgers are running out there.

21 Hopefully he learned that lesson from 2005.

"Luis Gonzalez was brought in to bridge the gap until Matt Kemp was ready. Matt's still not complete... he overthrew the relay man in Tampa is striking out too much on breaking pitches away."

I guess the .423 batting average is all luck.

25 - Oh god, tell us what he's saying.

Walter O'Malley couldn't stand Branch Rickey and eventually bought him out.

Someone please mention to him that that's the same thing as not bothering to make the throw and a pop-up.....

On Betemit:

"Betemit has been a huge frustration. I think he could break Bond's single season homerun record if he only gets one at bat a game. I don't know if it's a concentration thing...but when he has 4 at bats you wonder what's going on...He's the one player we have to decide how patient we will be...Of all the players we have, every third or fourth team calling asks for him but they don't want to give up anything to get him...since the batting coach change, Manny Mota's been working with him more...He's the most frustrating player, hands down."

1)Ned is a great public speaker very funny also
2)Home Depo is awkward around people & unfunny.IMO.

Last time I did this was September 18, 2006.

No guarantees are made or implied in this post. Just saying: I've done my part, and now it's up to the rest of the world.

Q:"well, is moving him to a 3rd base, a new postition, going to help him relax?"

A: "That's not our fault if you know what I mean."

But, if being funny and a good public speaker is all it takes to be a GM--I think Jerry Seinfeld should be the GM.

Before this year:
Betemit overall: .271/.332/.433
Betemit off the bench: .206/.325/.279

So unless Betemit magically became the worlds best pinch hitter and complete forgot what he was doing when he was starting, this will all just work itself out.

Pierre in CF for the next 5yrs is what Ned is saying here. Someone must have given Kemp the "cant play CF" tag, and its going to hang with him forever.

Paul DePodesta neither owns the Dodgers or could demonstrably be shown to make the stockholders (i.e. the McCourts) a lot more money.

Did Colletti address Pierre at all? I didn't get to listen.

"If we can get a real good starting pitcher [before the trading deadline], we would go for it. if we can get a real good middle reliever, a la a Billingsley, then we would go for that too."

Q: something along the lines of what the dodgers need to do to be be successful this year

A: "Add one more pitcher and have confidence in our offense. If our offense can't produce [more] in the next month then we'll have to add another hitter...We can't change everybody, hopefully we can rebound."

Gates also has an amazing track record of success. Its not like were talking about Bill Belecheck here.... Depo may have contributed to some good regular season records in a very weak AL West, but its that's far from a dynasty over there- ive never understood why anyone would be convinced that the way he looks at baseball is more correct than others. Yes, I read moneyball...

"a middle reliever?"

Now Ned is talking crazy. He's just stringing words together and hoping that it sounds like English.

"Furcal's ankle hasn't been right [since the spring training injury] and he won't sit down...He can still play a real good shortstop [with it].

Translation:

If we are a few games out of first place in a month, say goodbye to some young prospects to welcome in an expensive 3 month rental.

And sure, Matt Kemp has missed some balls while hitting, but the ones he has hit have been hard! They're focusing on what he can't do instead of what he can do.

a) Furcal doesn't want to sit
b) We won't ask Furcal to sit

some how i'm not suprised Bill Gates got involved in the conversation:o) But seriously they both have there flaws & there high points.

He might have been in his younger days, but it's pretty hard to run a company as big as Microsoft if you're just going to hide in your office all day.

yeah that one kind of scared me, hopefully we won't give up the farm to get a rent-a-player.

"Jeff is 5 or 6 years older than Nomar...He [Kent] can't seem to get any loft on the ball...not to make excuses but he did foul the ball of his foot the other day....everybody goes through stretches...we're still in a transition phase of melding our young players with our veterans."

Sunday vs. Padres
7/6 vs. Florida
7/16 or 17 vs. Phi
7/21 or 7/22 vs NYM

I hope he does well, for his sake and the Dodgers sake so they don't bump him from the rotation or trade him.

Wouldn't it be something if Billingsley pitched an "interesting" game on Dodger Thoughts Day, securing his future with LA?

BTW, I am hoping my personal 8-game Dodger losing streak vs. SD (7 at Petco, 1 at Dodger Stadium) ends this Saturday in the Penny/Peavy game.

Which has helped me remember what I was doing last year on the 4th of July.

I really wished that Simers had said to Ned, does a .304 OBP constitute getting on base an "awful lot"

You are drawing an analogy between a pro sports organization and a computer software company?

My point is that business is business, and in all successful business all that matters is the bottomline. It doesnt matter how you interact at social functions, or if you give a good interview to the press---Its just the bottomline.

A GM's soul function to procure talent, allocate resources effectively, and build as good of team as can be expected given his financial resources he has to work with.

You dont have to be a jock to be a GM of a baseball team. How many actual GMs are jocks? Not many in baseball. Colletti never even played the game. He wrote about it--he's a public relations guy.

If they trade for a hitter, it doesn't bode well for Kemp, or possibly Loney. If it's someone like Adam Dunn (would LaRoche & Ethier get it done?), then Kemp is blocked at least for 2007. If it's Teixeira (don't want to think of the cost), then Loney's most likely gone. To me, I still think they would go after a 3B (Rolen?) but only if Nomar doesn't come around. If they do get a 3B, I'm guessing 1B becomes a platoon of Loney and Nomar.

70 The one Dodger Stadium loss during my streak was 4+1 Eve, if that means anything. If history repeats itself, Dodgers lose 2-1 Saturday but comeback Sunday to beat the Pads. But a Sunday comeback means another bad Billingsley start. Blast!

Still, with all of this and all of his comments, I think it's more likely he'll look to acquire a starting pitcher than hitter. Hopefully, Billingsley will have enough time time to settle in, Tsao will prove healthy and effective, and Ned will realize the best move (beyond looking to trade Hendrickson and Tomko for mid level prospects) is standing pat.

Juan Pierre .304
Nomar .306
Derek Lowe .306

Can Nomar pitch and let Derek play third?

I still enjoy Jon's article on DePodesta from the 2006 Hardball Times Annual.

I assume the time was chosen as some sort of compromise since the Dodgers don't have a long flight home.

Besides, 3:40 pm is a BEAUTIFUL time of the day in Phoenix in late June!

Gonzalez' performance raises a question. When you sign a 39 yr old with OPS+ of 131, 119, 112, 97 and he puts up a 136, does that really make it a smart move? Any more than the 3-yr Schmidt deal is considered an unwise move? Just once I'd like to see a writer contemplate the wisdom of these signings at the time vs. 100% hindsight.

But then again, I'm not sure if he just talks down to a general audience because that's talk radio... it's certainly easier to joke with the hosts and make a couple basic statements about the one stat that most casual fans know than it is to give a more nuanced examination.

If he keeps this up, he will break the all-time career record at some point several years from now.

Juan Pierre .347
Nomar .364
Derek Lowe .191

Looking forward to the game today - and it's good Nomar's getting a rest, though he should have had one yesterday given his numbers vs. Webb.

It's just shorthand for saying that Pierre and Garciaparra need to be benched.

"Juan Pierre signs w/ the Dodgers, 5 for 45 mil?

Remember how bad he was on my fantasy team last year? I had to cut him! He can't hit [censored] for beans, has no arm, has ZERO power, and doesn't even steal that many bases. Ned, what [censored] were you thinking??"

I still can't believe I wrote that.

Why?

So, to expect him to deride a player, who admittingly is down from his average performance, couldn't reach his career averages by years end by having a good second half.

If Kemp was projected to be a center fieleder, why didn't he play it all the time in the minors. Instead he played at the corner outfield spots. I would think if he could play CF, he would have been playing it in the minors in games that don't matter and he didn't.

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

And I agree, I think most scouts seem to think that Kemp projects as a corner outfielder, than a CF - due to size/body type, route-running, all that. (Not that Pierre's route-running is anything the AAA will be putting in a map anytime soon.) It's not just random that they're not playing him there. I agree with the above that Ethier may actually be a more capable CFer than Kemp. Either of them would be better than Pierre overall, it's true.

From 2001 to present, Pierre has stolen 344 bases, most in the majors. The next closest to him is Ichiro, with 257.

http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/pM9A

Here are his NL rankings in SB during his career:

2001 - 1st
2002 - 2nd
2003 - 1st
2004 - 2nd
2005 - 2nd
2006 - 2nd

He currently ranks 2nd in SB in the NL in 2007.

I believe Kemp did play some CF this year in Vegas, though he may have played more RF.

83

Ethier does look pretty good in the OF, but my guess is his extreme lack of speed would prevent him from playing CF.

Does anyone know if Ned's interview is avail as a podcast anywhere?

96 I don't care if you are OPSing 1.000 if you are barely hitting over .200 that is going to matter.

Someone wrote about Matt Kemp that he has a lot of Derrick Lee in him, once he gets settled in and his swing becomes a little more compact, watch out. It is just going to take some time.

http://www.am570radio.com/cc-common/podcast.html

Among active players, however, only three of the top 15 bat strictly left-handed (not counting switch hitters).

http://tinyurl.com/384csj

It just matters a whole lot less than OPSing 650 or whatever.

Great caparison & analogy & like must of us know, once he lays of those breaking pitches away the skies the limit with this kid.

Kemp did play in 29games/19starts in CF last year for the Dodgers. He might not be great at tracking balls, but Kemp's value isnt as a defensive player. Its that he's a great offensive one, and considering his strong arm---would he really be that bad of CF'er?

Worse than Pierre for 5years?

If the Dodgers are signing Andruw Jones to play CF--ok move Kemp to LF/Rf. But Juan Pierre? Its insanity.

I'm not saying Kemp has have to play everyday but the rigidity of never giving Pierre a day off seems to be part of the problem.

I don't think we know that. Yes, it took longer than we wanted, but Nomar was moved to third (even after mgt admitted they were worried that might result in injury) to make room for Loney, Tomdrickson were moved to the pen to make room for Bill's. While Pierre's contract is unfortunate, there is some degree of hope that management will eventually play the best team possible.

I agree. The Dodgers as a team strikeout fewer than anyone in the league. However, they are also near last in homers, and down in the bottom 3rd of runs.

He doesn't profile as an everyday CF.

So trade Pierre to the Giants, brilliant!

Maybe you should do the math for you before you say that you "don't care if you are OPSing 1.000 if you are barely hitting over .200 that is going to matter"

With my very limited math skills, assuming that your .200 hitter has a .300 on base percent, he would need to average a home run at rate of around than once every six at bats in order to have that 1000 OPS. I am fairly sure that few managers would care that this player had only a .200 batting ave.

But his high OPS is not going to matter if he can't even hit .250, I'm not asking him to become Pujols but he is going certainly have to do better than hover around .200 if he is going to get regular time.

Unfortunately, he has probably reached the point of having to get hits during those few times that he starts because they are not going to pencil his name in the lineup everyday for him at this time.

Furcal, SS
Pierre, CF
Gonzo, LF
Kent, 2B
Loney, 1B
Kemp, RF
Lieberthal, C
Abreu, 3B
Wolf, P

I hear Magglio really stinks at antonyms.

Kind of hard to express the melody and timing in this way.

If you were comparing two players who have similar OPS stats then possibly you could use batting ave as a tie breaker. However if one of the players had a significantly better OPS, batting ave should not matter.

Unfortunately, I don't think any strikers struggle against our back line, and Argentina has Tevez, Messi, and Crespo.

I agree he is a poor hitter. I agree if he plays he should hit 8th. I agree he shouldn't be on the field.

But he is, so...

Three of those were in the 9th.

Pierre, CF

Martin, C

Kent, 2B

Gonzalez, LF

Kemp, RF

Loney, 1B (batting .500 on the year - 19-for-38)

Abreu, 3B

Wolf, P

A persimmon tree, yes. A sycamore, possibly.

But a ficus is just insulting.

We can bunt him to death (actually probably not a bad idea today).

161 "Juan, you have your marching orders for the day."

Yes. A cactus will suffice. Aloe vera is also acceptable.

Off topic, but has anyone done this?
http://www.digholes.com/

I'm not scientist but mine didn't seem accurate - I ended up in the southern Indian ocean.

My question is, if that's Ned's opinion of Kemp, doesn't Matt need to be playing somewhere in order to get better? Why's he with the big club if he isn't going to play more than once or twice a week?

Ned's favorite stats.

There is a double standard in letting Nomar work through his struggles by playing everyday and benching Betemit for low batting avg and Kemp for swinging at breaking balls.

The more I hear Colletti talk the more I realize I am not a believer in what he values in players and how he puts together a team.

"The Dodgers should trade for Troy Glaus. I would say the same thing about the Angels, but they never make in-season trades. I don't care which young players the Blue Jays want, I would do it. The Dodgers just don't have enough pop in their line-up. If Toronto asked for LaRoche, Billingsley and Kemp...I would pull the trigger."

(emphasis mine.)

I wouldn't mind getting Glaus. At least he doesn't block Kemp, and the player(s) he would block are not as crucial (plus, his frequent trips to the DL would leave them with lots of playing time.) But if anyone Colletti listens to actually thinks that would be reasonable to trade Billingsley AND Kemp AND LaRoche to get him...

But I'm surprised FSC isn't covering it.

One of those seven times was last night with Lowe batting. I actually didn't mind that one because at least it spared us the fate of him hitting into a double play against groundball god Webb.

this guy...ugh

Stupid, stupid stuff.

Obviously he's hot and it won't last, but it is fun. BTW, Sean Casey had three .900+ OPS seasons (99, 00 and 04, hinted at in 182. Several of those from Loney is just fine by me.

182 should be "'00 and '01".

JP is definitely more like a jacaranda than an ash; let me expound upon the botanical comparisons. Jacarandas are scraggly, skinny, and rather pathetic looking most of the year. For a couple of weeks out of the year they look great, and you may find yourself unreasonably drawn to them, thinking "wow, those purple trees are cool". But as soon as you have one on your own property, you realize they're awful - they look crappy most of the season, provide no shade, and even when they look good they're a total mess. In a nutshell, they are the perfect tree for your neighbor to have but you should avoid them like poison oak.

Penny Similarity Scores through Age 28 (that is through the end of last season):

Ben McDonald (974)
Jaime Navarro (972)
Pedro Astacio (972)
Len Barker (963)
Vicente Padilla (963)
Joey Hamilton (962)
Moose Haas (960)
Chuck Dobson (958)
Freddy Garcia (957)
Randy Wolf (955)

I'm enjoying the ride, and maybe it lasts all season, but over time, Penny is not likely to continue getting "ace" results. (Although there is a small chance something significant has changed.)

My fear is that he'll be there as long as he's hitting .270.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvqO9q8yi-A

Please tell me I'm right...

Notice the trend. This does not include 2007 data. He barely pitched in 2004 in Aug/Sept due to the nerve injury so those ERA's are mostly from 2005/2006. And again he barely pitched in 2005 in Sept due to shoulder problems so that ERA is mostly from his 2006 work. So you have a guy who seems to fade in the 2nd half or doesn't pitch in the 2nd half due to injury. Either way he's not the guy I'm betting on to change his spots and be an ace in the 2nd half. I wouldn't trade him but someone didn't think Vernon Wells is enough for Penny in the real world and I think it is for these reasons. I have no faith that Penney will either be effective or healthy enough to offset the steady offensive production of someone like Vernon Wells who I only consider a good player not a great player.

I just rewatched that Simpsons where they go to a parody of Legoland, and the two characters in Lego suits get stuck to each other. Classic moment.

As for Penny, like we both pointed out, Injury has been the main culprit...I don't know if he will stay healthy, but if he does, I don't foresee a collapse....definitely not this level of dominance, but I would be surprised if he has a repeat of last year....we all see the difference in his approach no?

At the same contract, sure, I'd take Ichiro over Pierre. But I don't think he'll provide better value.

246- He traded Baez away on July 28th of last year. So, not so quickly.

If this nonsense about Betemit being the greatest frustration on the team is just a poker face so he doesn't degrade Pierre's value further (to the extent that that's even possible), fine; I can get over being lied to, and treated like a moron by the GM if there's a reason for it. But if he actually thinks Betemit is a bigger problem than Nomar or Pierre, then he needs to get a different job. Even Logan White can't bail out a team whose GM thinks Pierre is good at baseball.