No, No, Yes, September, a little, no, no, yes, yes (Loney) and no (Kemp), the rest of the year, no, no for either, no, help.

And the most important question of them all:

Will the tireless Jon Weisman ever tire of keeping this an enlightened, energized, entertaining and authoritative site? Let's hope not.

--If by collapse, you mean Penny will end up with an ERA of around 3.50---yes.

--I dont think Kuo will be given another chance. I see Tomko/Hendrickson/Trade deadline veteran in front of him.

--Wolf will be out of commission by the middle August. Too many innings on his arm in his comeback year.

--Meloan in 2008 if he's not traded before then

--Lots of rope if he pitches well sunday. 1 good sunday start will likely buy him 3-4 more bad ones. Tomko's got too much veteranness to be DFA'ed.

--No. I doubt Abreu will ever be better than Jeff Kent, while each of them are active MLB'ers.

--Betemit will be the left handed Olmedo Saenz as his Dodger career progresses. A nice guy to have off the bench, but really a failure in proper asset utilization. Both players will be looked back upon as players that should have been platooned much more, given more abs, than just pinch hitters.

--Nomar needs the juice.

--Loney will be allowed to slump since he doesnt strike out much. Kemp wont be, since he K's a lot.

---Gonzo will fall off the cliff starting the last week of July.

--Furcal will hit for a bit more power as the season progresses. But other than that, I think what you see is what you get with Furcal.

--Pierre being rested helps the Dodgers since his absence from the lineup provides a chance for a better player to be inserted. With Furcal, he's the best the Dodgers have at SS. So he has to play or else it hurts the team.

--If Russ Martin gets hurt, the Dodgers will finish 8-10 games out of 1st place.

--Trade Dealine will do neither, since I dont see anything of impact leaving, or coming.

Yes, yes...But what does all of this have to do with David Beckham?!

3 Lots of rope if he pitches well sunday. 1 good sunday start will likely buy him 3-4 more bad ones.

I worry that you're right about this. It's got me to the point that I don't know what to do about Sunday: can't root against Tomko. Also can't root for him to succeed, because I know it won't last.

I am thinking about forgetting that the Dodgers play on Sunday.

1
Thanks for clearing it all up Bob. I guess there is no need to stick around this thread today.

6
I'm the Answer Man. The Reason Man is the next door down.

Continued from last thread...

Grady's "player's manager" tag means nothing to me given that every veteran position player on our team except for Gonzo is slumping.

Pierre in the field and at the top of the lineup every single day at the expense of Kemp. Waiting far too long to move Nomar and get Loney in there. Tomko's 7 losses with #8 likely to come on Sunday...

Generally, I agree that a manager doesn't have much effect on a team's W-L record... unless, of course, the manager consistently refuses to play the team's best players. I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that this Dodger team would be 4 wins better (and on a 96 win pace) if Grady wasn't completely ridiculous on a daily basis.

no
yes
no but hopefully a moot point
Monday July 16th
not much (see above)
another moot point assuming Kent is physically able to play
only if he plays enough for his average to naturally revert upwards
"retirement"
yes
august
yes
Furcal - yes, Pierre - no
no
neutral

1 I tend to think Bob is right about almost all his answers, except for one in particular. I'm not ready to give up on Kuo yet. I think he can still come through.

2 Amen!

8 My last time on this subject hopefully. Juan Pierre is not going to sit on the bench if he is healthy. Period, end of story.

Once he was signed, he was going to play everyday.

And going into the second half, the question of Juan Pierre and his playing time is less important than who is going fill in the bottom part of the rotation, who is going to be the bridge in the bullpen to Broxton and Saito, can Loney continue to play well, will it be Nomar or Betemit be playing at 3B in September.

I realize its easy to pick on Juan Pierre but if he we get to September and those other issues I listed are resolved well, than we can get back to the issue of JP. I just don't think it is the end of all Dodger woes if he was sitting on the bench instead of playing.

1. No because Brad has turned the corner and will have ERA under 3.50 for the season. He and Lowe are a terrific one-two and thank you, Paul DePodesta.

2. He hurt. When he pitch, he bad. When he healthy, he won't get a chance.

3. I think players who are hurting and don't say anything ought to be pistol whipped with a sawed off fungo.

4. August and he's going to make a difference.

5. Enough to hang himself after Sunday. He's nice, he's an artist but I'll take the cro-magnon personalities who happen to get outs.

6. No way. Jeff Kent would have to fall very, very far to worry about playing time. He ain't there yet. He's been a terrific signing and thanks again, Paul DePodesta.

7. They sure will. It's why he's a pinch hitter as opposed to an everday player. As an everday player, he struggles but as a pinch hitter, he mashes. It's logic, Jon... didn't we talk about this?

8. Alright, who's willing to make a bid on a jersey?

9. Jon, young players who struggle need to get sent down so they can work on their mechanics and not get destroyed psychologically by a long slump (say, a 2-for-12 stretch) while veterans need to stay in the lineup to work their way out of a slump. That's logic, Jon, and dammit all, didnn't we talk about this already?

10. My man Luis, still the nicest, most genuine guy I've met in the game and that is saying something, will continue to produce barring injury.

11. First half Furcal is what we'll see in the second half: fine average, little power, love that cannon arm.

12. I am officially in a no-talk-about-Juan zone for the rest of July.

13 should be rule 13: No one is allowed to speculate about Russell Martin getting injured.

14. I want to be wrong but I think Ned makes a trade of youth for veteran presence. He won't trade the store for a superstar but I think he'll make the damaging move of youngstuh for proven vet and it will hurt us all.

5 I don't think this will happen. Tomko got pulled from the rotation pretty swiftly (four bad starts out of eight) and he's been terrible lately. I think Houlton or someone else replaces him after his first bad start unless he puts together at least three or four good outings in a row.

1. Yes, I agree with the 3.50 ERA statement, which would put his ERA at 5.00 for the second half.

2. Doubtful, the arm injuries are just too much. If he's only throwing 88, it's not worth risking even more damage.

3. Probably not, he needs to activate that option, and the only way it won't happen is if he doesn't pitch.

4. September 1st

5. None

6. No, Abreu isn't a viable major leaguer until he stops swinging at pickoff attempts.

7. No, but he'll be kept around because of his utility status.

8. Not really, I'd call up LaRoche, let Nomar only start against lefties, if that doesn't work, it's DFA time.

9. Loney, yes, Kemp, no.

10. Not much, the warning signs were to great heading into the season.

11. Given Furcal's history of exploding in the second half, he'll be fine.

12. Probably not, they should just naturally improve, rest or no.

13. No, the Lieberthal-Huckaby tandem won't do much at all.

14. Right now, I'd be pleasantly surprised if LaRoche was on the team in August, so I'll say hurt.

10. I'm with Bob on Kuo. I felt he was hurting when most of his fastballs were in the 88/89 range during his last start. Then they announced he had elbow pain but it has nothing to do with his two previous TJ surgeries. The problem I have is that after he rests his arm and comes back I see no reason not to expect the elbow pain to show up again later.

I'm having a similar problem with Wolf. His shoulder began to bother him after half a season of pitching. He will take some time off. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him go down again in late August or September.

11-
I can accept that Pierre must play regularly, but I cannot accept any rationale that puts him in the 1 and 2 hole every single day with his .310 OBP.

Also, I agree that speculation about Russ getting injured should be strictly forbidden.

I'm just happy that there is a game tonight. Four days without Dodger baseball in the middle of the summer is just rough for me. It's almost as bad as when they go too far east and we have to live without Vinny for a week or so.

I enjoyed that article on Depo from the previous thread. I wouldn't blame him for preferring a behind-the-scenes position over the GM job, at least for the time being. He gets most of the benefits (i.e. player evaluation) without paying most of the costs (i.e. media scrutiny).

PERFORMANCE-ENHANCING SUBSTANCES: Rule is not made to be broken

>>> Dr. Jack Singer, a certified sports psychologist based in Laguna Beach, Calif., said there's a simple reason why a player such as Garcia would risk his career and more by continuing to take steroids after a first positive test.

"Steroids are very addictive, like any other drug people shouldn't be taking without a lot of extreme care," he said. "When someone becomes addicted, it's difficult to stop. <<<

http://www.lvrj.com/sports/8483542.html

14 Wait a minute... did I say Penny would have an ERA over 5.00 in the second half? (gets out calculator, asks son how it works, then asks son about the math... then bangs head on table, wondering why he even bothers).

20 Assuming second half meant after 81 games, yes. After his last outing, it's something like 4.80-4.90.

Rodriguez Spurns Yanks' Offer to Negotiate During the Season

>>> Despite a widely reported effort by the Yankees to open negotiations for a contract extension, Rodriguez said he had no intention of bargaining until after the season. <<<

http://tinyurl.com/2p447g

21 Yeah, I was being playful in post 20. I really believe Penny will have a great second half and that belief is based on three key things:

1) Hope
2) Faith
3) Hope&Faith

So... it's gonna happen.

I'm still laughing about Jeff Garlin's joke.

17 Vinless part of the Dodger schedule in the second half.

These games will feature the Charley/Psycho on TV and Monday and Reuss on the radio - 7/23 - 7/25 (3); 8/7 - 8/12 (6); 8/21 - 8/26 (6); and 9/3 - 9/6 (4).

Also Saturday games on Fox or in the window where the Dodgers can't televise the game. Those games are on 7/14; 7/21; 9/8; 9/29 (but if that game is played in the afternoon and is important for playoff implications, chances are Vin would do the radio broadcast, similar to the playoffs)

So that is only 23 out of 79 games, so Vin is around most of the time.

Pitching always seems to wear down a bit in the second half for any team (the most recent example being the Tigers from last year). While our pitching has carried us so far, our ERA will probably go up when August rears its ugly head.

Unless Pierre and Furcal can generate more runs (not to mention Kent and Nomar stepping it up), we may not have enough to overtake the Friars from down south.

I still think we're a playoff team (division winner or wild card), but it isn't going to be easy.

Part of me hopes Depo writes a "tell-all" book someday about his time with the Dodgers. I don't really see that happening, but my mind is enquiring.

16 I don't think there is a single manager in baseball that wouldn't put Pierre in the 1 or 2 spot in the batting order. I'm not saying that's the right thing to do, but to single out Grady Little for some egregious error here seems a bit much.

22 The key part for the Yankees is that he does not opt out. If he does, Texas is no longer on the hook except for the deferred portion of his original contract.

Tom Hicks is hoping and praying that Boras and A-Rod are true to their word of going after the 30 million deal.

25 Thanks for that breakdown. Now I'll know when I should take my medication before I watch the game.

If or when Brad Penny starts giving up more home runs, will his season collapse? - He will certainly not pitch as well in the 2nd half but I don't see a 2006 collapse. I've never been able to trust Brad's arm ever since the nerve deal. I know that is carrying a grudge to far but I learned from Bob that you can take any small thing and make a big thing out of it when it comes to grudges.

Can Hong-Chih Kuo contribute this year?- Yes, he'll tithe 20% to the Free Taiwan fund.

Will Randy Wolf tell us if he's still hurting?-No, but it won't matter because the results will show if he's hurting

When will Jonathan Meloan get his chance to prove his value to the major-league roster? July

How much rope will Brett Tomko get?-enough to hang himself. That was to easy, I think he gets DFA'd, goes to the Mets where all used up Dodgers go and beats us in a meaningful game behind the bat of Marlon Anderson.

By September, will Tony Abreu be a better overall option at second base, offense and defense combined, than Jeff Kent? No, his lack of patience will be his downfall in the short term and Kent can still hit enough to make up the statuesque defense.

Will the Dodgers ever focus on what Wilson Betemit does when he hits the ball over what happens when he doesn't? Yes they love Boom Boom, but it is a tough love.

Is there an answer to Nomar Garciaparra's problems? Yes it is called the bench but I was unaware there was a problem. Were winning, he's driving in runs, what's the problem:)

Will James Loney and Matt Kemp be allowed to slump, so that they can come out of their slumps? Loney never slumps so it doesn't come up, Kemp doesn't play enough to go into a slump.

How much longer can Luis Gonzalez defy the aging process this year?-Just long enough to get an extension and screw us in 2008

Will 123 hours of rest this week give Rafael Furcal what he needs for a better second half? Yes, he will have a 2nd half very close to 2006

Would more rest help Furcal or Juan Pierre? Nothing can help Pierre, he is what he is. He'll have a strong 2nd half compared to his 1st half which means instead of being the 21st worse CF in baseball he'll only be the 15th worse.

If Russell Martin gets hurt, can Mike Lieberthal keep hope alive? Golden Boy will not get hurt, only a hater would even suggest it.

Will the trade deadline hurt the franchise or help it? Hurt so badly that Nate and Canuck will cry in unison a wail of anguish so loud that it will be heard from California to British Columbia. Actually I think a little hurt, maybe just a knee abrasion kind of hurt where once you lick the scab off, you forget why you were crying.

26 - Why will the Dodgers' pitching wear down but not the Padres' pitching? I mean, I don't expect much of a collapse from Peavy, but it's not as if the rest of their staff should be immune, if this phenomenon is true?

27 What's there to tell, his boss decides to fire him and he lives off that contract until he gets hired by the Padres.

Like any break-up, there are probably things that both parties could have and should have done differently but in the end a decision was made and both went their separate ways.

Now if he wants to tell us how frustrated he was when he saw Jason Phillips play first base, now that is something I would want to read.

32 Jon, you of all people know that the sky is falling.

Next you'll be saying something like this team is in the playoffs right now, better record than next year, etc. You are such a pollyanna.

33 - The Jason Phillips-type stuff is definitely part of a tell-all (hence the name tell-all). I don't think it would only be about the end of the relationship. There's a lot of fascinating dynamics in the Depo-McCourt-Tracy-Lasorda quadrilateral, start to finish. I'd eat it up.

Going back to the last thread, you know Derrick Lee is having a sub par year himself, well for Derrick Lee. only SIX home runs! However his OPS is still .890

Point is, you don't really know how these OF signings will turn out when you make them, and like everyone else, I'm not excusing the JP contract.

Lee is also hitting over .330, ok what do I know?

35 Problem is outside of DT, who else would buy that book.

It is the Tracy/DePodesta dynamic that would be the undercurrent of the story.

However, it would amuse me much if Paul said something like, I would hear Lasorda down the hall and I would immediately go in the opposite direction.

Actually we should just write it ourselves.

My chapter will be, "The Day the Music Died or 100 reasons why I made the LoDuca trade"
Reason number one, I don't believe in anyone being the "heart and soul" of the ballclub.

31
Mathematically, can you tithe 20%?

36. But wasn't Ned referring to Carlos Lee?

40

man how erroneous can I get? You are correct, it was Carlos Lee (and it's free). Why do I keep getting them confused (and it rocks).

Okay, last update about tonight's game - going with DTer Paul B and we're sitting along 1st base line near Dodger bullpen. Hopefully we'll see Broxton and Saito; as I told Paul, at least we know we won't see Tomko tonight. ;-) I'll take pictures and post them somewhere sometime this week. Wish us luck. If they lose, you can blame me. Also, there's another block of 4 tickets in the same row available for sale on ebay if other people decide they want to go, it's not too late. Cheers.

32 A really good point. While I expect Peavy to be lights out for most of the rest of the season (barring injury), I don't see how they can be overly confident in Maddux or Wells, or Germano for that matter. Or even Chris Young. The odds are someone will break down there, too.

Media column: If Bonds connects, don't expect Scully's best call

>>> "If I were to call the Bonds' home run, it would be stripped to its bare bones as far as I'm concerned," Scully said Thursday before departing to San Francisco. <<<

http://www.dailybreeze.com/sports/articles/8481232.html

44 Does anyone recall Vin's call of Aaron's homer (he was there of course). You hear the Atlanta Brave's call and occasionally you hear the NBC call but I don't recall hearing Vin's call that much.

I predict Meloan gets at least a cup of coffee before 9/1 - to ensure playoff eligibility - and he's a near-certainty for Sept. callup.

I'm fear that we end up hearing that Kuo is done for the season.

With regard to Tomko, how close are Grady and Ned to the end of their ropes? Very near, methinks.

I hope the A-S break helped Furcal's ankle in a significant way.

The trade deadline may hurt the franchise even if no move is made because I think the Padres will improve themselves between now and then. Heck, Bradley is already a significant improvement over the PAs that would have gone to Sledge, et. al.

12 2-12 is a "long slump"? That could be a 1-4, 1-4, 0-4.

Since starting in Tampa Bay, the only game Loney didn't start was against Dontrelle Willis last Friday. Loney was 3-25 from 6/30 - 7/6 inclusive, then had the 4-4 on Saturday, so perhaps he has already been allowed to play through a slump.

how close are Grady and Ned to the end of their ropes? Very near, methinks

Ned seemed to make it sound as if this is Tomko's last chance. The obvious problems with that are at least two:

1. Tomko has had plenty of last chances already
2. If he pitches well in his last chance, does that mean he passes the test and gets to stick around for the rest of the year, no matter what? Or, is every outing a last chance? If we haven't seen enough of him up to this point to make an accurate evaluation, what more are we really going to learn from another start or two?

46 Sledge is on a rehab so we shall see who gets the ABs, Milton can be fine player when he plays but that is always the problem.

45 I found it here and I can see why Vinny would just like to be part of breaking that record just once in his life. BTW, as only Vinny can do, 27 seconds of crowd noise from his last word on the call, "Gone"

But then Vin really sums up the social and historical implications of a black man breaking Babe Ruth's, the symbol of baseball, greatest record in the Deep South (Vin's words) and being cheered by all there in Atlanta.

Its a nice moment, take a listen sometime today.

http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/atl/history/aaron.jsp

45 I remember that call like it was yesterday. bhsportsguy summed it up nicely and provided a link.

I haven't listened to the Lakers on radio or watched them on television since Chick left. I won't finish this thought.

Underdog, check your gmail.

Agree or Disagree

>>> Guided by Boras, A-Rod will opt out, and it will be the Giants -- sans Barry Bonds -- who will sign him to a very lucrative, multi-year deal beginning next season. <<<

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19713122

52 - Apparently Sabean is close to getting an extension with the Giants, so maybe that means something. Do they keep up the same strategy as the last 10 years or so, except with ARod playing the part of Bonds?

If they were going to start a rebuilding process next year, post-Bonds, why keep Sabes around?

50 Thanks for the kind words, btw, is suffering more for football or basketball?

Just wondering as a fellow supporter.

Disagree, if Arod comes West it will be with the Angels. He has no chance of winning with the Giants and why would he want to play in such a pitchers park?

Boston needs a SS. They should sign A-Rod. And is that article correct in stating that The Phone Booth is the only private ballpark in MLB?

Haven't O'Malley/McCourt always owned Dodger Stadium?

http://tinyurl.com/25ween

3 of the top 10 worst offseason free agent signings for 2007

(At least according to this column. Thanks Ned.)

And then when you click on Nomar's link he looks awfully BIG and seems tiny now. Maybe that's what they can't explain.

55. The problem I see with the Angels is that their owner is on record saying he would be very reluctant to devote such a high percentage of his payroll to one player, even if that player is A-Rod.

Nomar's link he looks awfully BIG and seems tiny now

Yep. The fact that Nomar hasn't addressed it makes it seem suspicious. I haven't seen the 2007 Nomar with his shirt off, but I doubt he looks anything like the way he looks on that magazine cover.

Talk about being on the fast track. Jay Bruce, 20 year old outfielder for the Reds started out in High A , then jumped to AA, and is now in AAA with a combined OPS of 987.
Justin Upton, the 19 year old who has been in High A and AA has a combined OPS of 931. Both of them well probably touch 4 levels this season and end up in the Show in Sept.

57 Wheee, GMing in hindsight.

52 More than $50 million of the payroll would be ARod (more than $32 million) and Zito ($18 million). I don't think so.

I haven't seen the 2007 Nomar with his shirt off...

Only in your mind's eye, huh?

61 Although he does poke himself as calling the Schmidt signing the best before the season.

58
Everyone would be reluctant, but if Moreno can waste 6 million on Hillebrand he can pay the going rate on Arod. He can put him at SS, trade Cabrera and put Wood at 3b or reverse the two. A minium wage infield of Kotchman/Kendrick/Wood would take some of the sting out of the 30 million.
Dodgers could do the same. Hope Kent walks and go with infield of Loney, Abreu, Arod, La Roche.

49. But then Vin really sums up the social and historical implications of a black man breaking Babe Ruth's, the symbol of baseball, greatest record in the Deep South (Vin's words) and being cheered by all there in Atlanta.

One of the things that made me chuckle here was that I recall reading somewhere that Ty Cobb (The Georgia Peach, himself) considered Babe Ruth to be a black man (and once refused to room with him). So I imagine he would have just ignored all the hoopla had he still been around. :-)

Wolf, Gonzalez, Tomko and Odalis Perez drop off the roster---thats 26 mils.

Still shy of the 30mils needed for A-Rod.

65 - What about LaRoche at 2nd, keeping ARod at 3rd, and going with Furcal followed by Lu at short? I'm skeptical that ARod plays shortstop ever again.

I'm a little puzzled by the ARod rumors. Unless he absolutely doesn't want to stay in New York (which doesn't seem to be the case, at least right now), the Yankees seem to have an insurmountable edge with:

1) the most (or close to the most) resources of any team;

(2) a strong desire/need to stay relevant after a down year and with an aging core of superstars;

(3) a huge competitive advantage because of the money Texas is still doling out on ARod's current contract. Assuming they can get an extension done, they basically have a $30 million head start on everyone else, right?

Seems like just wishful thinking/cyncial effort to sell copy to suggest otherwise. Am I off-base?

69 (3) - It sounds like ARod WILL opt-out, and at least get shopped around to other bidders. That takes Texas' money out of play. The Yanks will end up having to give ARod a 13M or so dollar raise to get him back when factoring in the lack of Ranger money.

69 No. You are absolutely right. He will go where the most money is and that's where the most money will be. Heck they are already bidding against themselves.

57--Interesting list, but I think Josh Hamilton deserves to at least be in there somewhere.

Totally unexpected to see him put up .279/.371/.543 while playing CF in major leagues.

The pitching collapse has started already even if Penny doesn't give up to many home runs. If Penny and Lowe pitch well for the rest of the season, the 3 other starters are not consistent enough to go seven innings. The inconsistency will put more pressure on the bullpen that is starting to look tired. The last series against the Marlins might be an indication of things to come.

72 Hamilton was not a free agent signing, though. He was a Rule 5 pick.

69. I agree the Yankees would seem to have a huge advantage. Just signing him to an extension means they save $14 million over the next two year (courtesy Tom Hicks). This seems to me to be Boras at his best. :-) He has stated that A-Rod is due to make $32 million per over the next two years (due to provision in his contract). So I suspect if A-Ron opts out the floor will be set at no less than $32 million by Boras with an eye on something like $35 million per over six years (I'm just guessing here but so is everybody else except Boras :-) ).

66 It's a story that has been around, mentioned in the Ken Burn's documentary and in the latest Ruth biography.

http://tinyurl.com/2qh4re

Satchel Paige's one regret in baseball was not striking out Ruth in a Major League contest.

The other thing about Cobb and Ruth, it wasn't as if their careers did not overlap quite a bit, Cobb started playing full time in 1907, Ruth began pitching full time in 1915. Cobb's last year was 1928 so Cobb was there in the league when Ruth began the change from the Deadball era to the Home run era in the 1920's.

Cobb, was probably the best offensive player, with Wagner, until Ruth swung a bat as a Yankee. But Ruth became a much much bigger star, the first modern age superstar in American sports. No surprise that Cobb probably didn't like nor appreciate what was going on in his game.

75 - But signing an extension means ARod doesn't get exposed to other bidder...seems very un-Boras-like there. Boras doesn't care at all about the Rangers contribution, or lackthereof, so I don't see how that would factor into his strategy with ARod.

He may very well end up back in NY, but I bet he opts-out first and NY has to bring him back on a "new" contract.

73--Broxton actually pitched better last year than he has this year. This year his bb rate is up, his k rate is down.

However, like Penny---Broxton has survived on not allowing home runs.

45 ip--0 homers allowed this year.

73 I think Billingsley could average close to 7 innings the rest of the season. I think his light workload as a reliever will pay off during the second half in the rotation.

70 Yeah, I get that about the opt-out. My point is that both the Yankees and ARod have a strong economic incentive to avoid that eventuality. If the "market" rate for ARod is something crazy like 7 years at 30 million per (210 million), the Yankees could go 7 at 32 (224 million) and only actually be forking out around 27.7 million per year (194 million) because the Rangers are responsible for the remaining $30 million. So both sides lose if A Rod actually opts out. Right?

Cobb always claimed that anyone could hit home runs like Ruth if they swung hard enough, but that his (Cobb's) "scientific" way of contact hitting was better. To prove his point, in May 1925 he announced to the press that for the next two games, he would not choke up on the bat handle -- he would hold it down at the knob and do nothing but try to hit home runs. He hit five homers in the two games.

Sounds like this Cobb fellow was a bit of a jerk.

80 - Sure you could do a backloaded deal, since he's "only" earning some $27M for the next 3 years, but I would think the Yankees would have to pay a premium to avoid putting ARod on the market. It may seem crazy, but I think there just might be other teams that would consider ARod's price.

As mentioned above, LA nearly has $30M coming off the books in expiring contracts alone, and no one is due for any big raises. If Ned committed starting jobs (no "veteran presences" allowed) to the young'ns (specifically Billingsley and Kemp) LA could be a player for ARod. Who knows?

Tonight the key game in the series for me. Primarily because I pull for Billingsley more than any other Dodgers pitcher. I'd love for him to do so well that he cannot be removed from the rotation.

84 I could be wrong, but I doubt Billingsley could be pulled from the rotation no matter what he does. My only evidence is the fact that there isn't anybody to replace him with.

83 I won't belabor the point, but assuming I'm understanding how an extension would work (i.e. it keeps Texas on the hook for part of ARod's salary) it seems to boil down to this: Boras would have to think that some team is willing to outbid the Yankees' best offer by about 30 million dollars in order to be willing to risk free-agency. That just seems like a lot to hope for, even for him.

Then again, he does have mountains of glossy paper with which to plead his case, so anything's possible.

Don't expect this from BP. From Jay Jaffe at the end of his Tampa Bay review:

"And given the showings by Dioner Navarro(-15), Edwin Jackson(-18.9), Jae Seo(-19), Joel Guzman, and Sergio Pedroza, perhaps GM Andrew Friedman should let Ned Colletti's next phone call go directly to voicemail. "

I only find this amusing because it is the direct opposite of what most DT posters were saying one year ago on Aug 1st.

51 Icaros, thanks - ditto! :-)

I see the Bison is back on Kemp's wikipedia page - explained in fine style!

67 I don't think Wolf is necessarily coming off the payroll next season. His vesting $9m option for 2008 kicks in with 180 IP in 2007. Wolf is currently at 102.2 IP. I give him a reasonable chance of hitting the 180 IP mark, especially if he comes back healthy as schedules July 20 or so.

Also, I'd guess Luis Gonzalez has at least a 50% shot of being resigned for 2008. The next few months will obviously go a long way in determining that.

87 IIRC, it's not so much what we gave up as what we got in return that bugged.

87 and 91 Also, I'll point out that all of the players cited are very, very young, and if any one of them turns it around and becomes the kind of player he was initially projected to be, the trade goes from a wash of nothings to very, very bad for the Dodgers.

85 - I think that gem he pitched the other week locked him in. There isn't any other rotation candidate realistically capable of an outing like that.

The only way I see him being removed is if the bullpen was deemed too thin without him. Backwards logic it is, but I think they at least have a lot of confidence in his abilities now.

I'm not saying yea nor nea but I can remember many posts where the comment was I hope Ned never takes another call from Tampa Bay so that is why I found this so funny. Maybe I'm alone.

94 OK, fair enough. I retract and apologize for post 92. There's not really any need to rehash the trades from last year.

Hendrickson, Betemit, Winthrow and Adkins
Versus
Navarro, Seo, Jtd, Jackson, Pedroria, Ruggiano

Time will tell.

I have no problem rehashing trades. It is easier now that we know what the Lugo draft picks got us. That is my favorite part of win shares.

90 - But that was in context of making a run at ARod. If LA wanted to, they could let all of them walk and go with this lineup instead:

Loney/Kent/Furcal/ARod
Kemp/Pierre/Ethier
Martin

Penny/Lowe/Billingsley/Schmidt/Kuo

and have it almost be a wash in salaries.

That's without even considering Kent might not come back. How are his PA's looking?

Sabean did indeed get his 2-year extension.

http://tinyurl.com/22vwov

If Gonzo is resigned, then Ned obviously learned nothing from the Angels signing Steve Finley.

100 He doesn't have to look that far back to find a cautionary tale.

96--I dont think you can look at the trades in that context. Hendrickson/Seo/Baez/Toby Hall/Lugo all had a determined value. It was low, for obvious reasons. They werent good players, and they made substantial salary compared to the league minimum guys they were traded for.

Guzman, Ruggiano,Jackson Pedroza were prospects--in essence currency--that were used to buy something low in value. It doesnt matter that the "currency" dropped in value a year later, at the time it had a certain buying power of which Ned didnt utilize.

If you had a $100 in your pocket, and bought a box of paper clips for $100 last August 1st, thats a bad trade. If the next year rolls around and your currency's value has dropped, you still lose. Unless your claiming that your currency drops so low as to not even be able to buy something completely useless anyway--i.e a box of paper clips--or in the Dodgers case Mark Hendrickson.

I think if the Dodgers wanted too, if they still had Guzman, they could still deal him for a mediocre starting pitcher. Even today.

Maybe I'm alone

If only you could ask whether it's just you or whether you're the only one.

Other problems with the DRay trades:

1. Trading prospects for junk is generally not a good idea. Would this become a trend...?
2. The trades seemed to provide (disturbing) insight into how Ned evaluates players.

- Baez was "good" because he had saved 40+ games in a season before
- Carter was "good" because he was a former All-Star
- Hendrickson was "good" because his ERA was in the 3s at the time he was acquired
- Lugo was "good" because he was hitting over .300 at the time, with an uncharacteristically high number of HRs

Just because I like asking and answering my own questions, Kent has played in 81 of 89 games this year, and has accumulated 337 PA's.

If he keeps up his 4.16 PA/G ratio, he'll need to play in 52 of the remaining 73 games to get his 550. Looks like he'll be able to survive even one standard trip to the DL and still hit his number.

98 I agree if the Dodgers wanted Wolf to walk, they could let him leave. But if he gets 180 IP this year, they can't let him walk because his 2008 option becomes guaranteed.

If he's healthy, he's getting his 180 IP.

Adkins was just activated and is starting for Great Lakes tonight.

http://tinyurl.com/2v7pqv

85. I wasn't really considering him being removed immediately and didn't mean he has to pitch well just this game. I have high hopes for Billingsley as a mainstay in the Dodgers rotation for years to come and I'd rather not see him being jerked around from rotation to bullpen and back. What I was really saying is I hope he pitches so well for the rest of the season that he doesn't get sent back to the bullpen. So each time his spot comes around in the rotation I find myself pulling harder for him than the others. Penny and Lowe are set. The trade deadline is coming and Ned is looking. I'm hoping Billingsley will do so well over his next several starts that his position in the rotation will not be looked at as one needing to be upgraded.

In the interview with Ned that I linked up in last nights thread Ned said that they took alot of criticism for not having Chad start out of spring training and he said the reason is because he was NEEDED in the pen. He said it was a calculated move and that they will either find someone (in house or not) to replace his role in the Pen or find a starter (in house or not) and move him back to the Pen.

105 - Gotcha. He needs another 75 innings, which would be about 12 good starts. Does he have 12 more starts in him? As you say, if he's 100% healthy, he probably does. But his turn figures to come around, what, another 13-15 times (in the ~70 games left in the season when he comes back)? Not a huge margin for error there.

102
All good points except I don't think they could get a pitcher for JtD at this point that would be anything better then Tomko/Hendrickson/DJ Houlton.

103
Right

I think the scout who advised Ned on the Tampa deals has been eliminated from the big room.

111 What about Plaschke's old geezer who spotted the good face on Ethier? I hope he's still around!

Looking at today's SL, I see that one of us didn't do a Freaky Friday switch with Grady over the All-Star Break. Why is Nomar batting ahead of Loney? Oh, why do we even bother asking?

If Grady ran MY life, I'd attend preschool instead of my kid, because I'm a proven veteran.

Wolf's going to cut it very close to 180ip if he gets 13 more starts, and goes 6ip a start. Even then, he barely makes it--right at 181 ip.

Stats 101: Some leverage for the closers

>>> Who's the best closer in baseball thus far in 2007? <<<

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7014472

109 Wolf has basically been a 5 IP pitcher since June.

April & May: 11 starts, 66 IP (6.0 per start), 3.41 ERA, 9.68 K/9, 2.59 BB/9
June & July: 7 starts, 36.2 IP (5.1 per start), 7.12 ERA, 5.65 K/9, 4.91 BB/9

I don't know if that was all health related, but you are right, it will be a chore for him to reach 180 IP.

114 - And in what has been a pretty good 1st half for him, he averaged 5 2/3 IP/start.

I'm going on a limb and say he ain't doin' it.

If Branch Rickey really despised Walter O'Malley, he hid it well in this letter:

http://www.walteromalley.com/docu_detail.php?gallery=2&set=5&docuID=150&pageNum=1

Or was it just one-way hate?

118 I believe the Dodgers will win the upcoming game tonight. I deeply wish it so.

For those of you holding your breath waiting to see Ichiro in Dodger Blue, you can exhale now.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=All3bdQ8QJGuq0ZBB9nLP8cRvLYF?slug=ap-mariners-suzuki&prov=ap&type=lgns

Was Moses still alive when the Mets won the WC in 69 in his stadium in Flushing?

121 Moses died in 1981.

If Ichiro retired today (I know he obviously won't, especially with the new contract), is he a HOFer? He hasn't played the required 10 years in MLB (this is his 7th year), but I think an exception might be made with all his service time in Japan.

123 - I don't think his US credentials are nearly enough at this point, even if he were able to circumvent the minimum year criteria. He's not even at 1500 hits yet.

123 - If so it'd be weird that his service time in Japan didn't preclude him from winning ROY, but somehow would be enough for an exception to a HOF rule.

Per ItD...

Furcal, SS
Pierre, CF
Martin, C
Kent, 2B
Gonzo, LF
Nomar, 3B
Loney, 1B
Ethier, RF
Billingsley, P

Not that I think volume of hits is a good criteria, I just don't think he's amassed enough time stateside for the HOF.

Pujols has played in a similar amount of games in the majors (both are at just over 1000 games played), and generated far superior stats. I'm doubtful that even he is worthy at this point.

118. And speaking of one-way hate, or something not quite:

In the Documentary Buzzie said Walter O'Malley hated Jackie Robinson's guts and vice versa. But it seems to me O'Malley's hatred of Jackie was kind of petty. Since virtually all of Jackie's contact was with Branch Rickey as he was being prepared to break the color line and whatever approval O'Malley gave was apparently behind the scenes why would O'Malley have expected Jackie Robinson to give him equal credit along with Branch Rickey?

Sorry to hit this relatively late:

1. Brad Penny? Much better second half this year. He's figured out what went wrong last season.

2. Hong-Chih Kuo? Don't expect to see him again this season, but it would be nice to be wrong.

3. Randy Wolf? I'm guessing he'll be honest. Doesn't want to alienate the Dodgers. Doesn't want to be seen as a risky signing after this season.

4. Jonathan Meloan? This season, baby! Tomko gets DFA'd, and sails away, $3 million richer, and within weeks, the sting is gone!

5. Brett Tomko? Rope to be parcelled out in units so small he can barely grasp them.

6. Tony Abreu vs. Jeff Kent? Maybe, but by that time, he'll be too busy playing 3b.

7. Wilson Betemit? I see him as trade bait.

8. Nomar Garciaparra's problems? Will be solved by a time machine. He's a bench player by the end of the season.

9. Will James Loney and Matt Kemp be allowed to slump? I suspect yes. They might ride the pine for a day or two, but they aren't going back to AAA.

10. Luis Gonzalez? If Grady Little wants to keep Gonzalez productive, he has a ready answer. He should do that.

11. Rafael Furcal? He needs more rest. I'm okay with Lucille playing short for a couple of weeks.

12. Would more rest help Furcal or Juan Pierre? Furcal yes, Pierre no. Pierre will not be as bad in the second half as he was in the first half.

13. If Russell Martin gets hurt...? The Dodgers are pretty well screwed if that happens.

14. Will the trade deadline hurt the franchise or help it? Hurt it, because the Padres are playing for this year, and so will get a slugger, and the Dodgers won't. But we have to be...okay...with that. A slugger doesn't help the Pads as much as they think it will. The press will kill Ned if he stands pat, but he should and he will.

128
O'Malley also hated Rickey because Rickey spent a lot of money on bad business ideas, such as starting a football team to play in Ebbets Field.

And in 1946, when the Dodgers got into a tiebreaker playoff with the Cardinals, O'Malley wanted the radio stations carrying the Dodgers to pay extra for those games since he felt they weren't part of their regular contract. Rickey insisted they were and his opinion prevailed.

In the long bio of Rickey I read by Lee Lowenfish, you can find a lot of things that Rickey did that O'Malley disliked and I can't say that O'Malley didn't have a good reason for disliking Rickey with some of the stuff Rickey did.

Pig out in Atlanta:

http://tinyurl.com/yrovgn

130. I can't say that O'Malley didn't have a good reason for disliking Rickey with some of the stuff Rickey did.

Okay Bob. :-) But it was O'Malley hatred of Jackie that I said seemed kind of petty. What's your take on that relationship?

132
I think O'Malley just didn't want someone around all the time who kept telling people that Rickey was great and O'Malley wasn't.

If you're Roger Kahn, this means that O'Malley was a racist.

If you're not Roger Kahn, O'Malley is just a guy who didn't like someone taking all the credit.

No one seems to have gotten my question, which was not why O'Malley hated Rickey, but whether (or why) Rickey hated O'Malley?

131 I thought that was going to be a picture of Bob Wickman

After a 26 year layoff, baseball is returning to University of Oregon. I'm pretty excited about this even though I'm not a huge college baseball fan. Initially, the team is going to be awful. It will take at least 5 years to build a respectable program, but with Phil Knight's money, I could see the Ducks being a middle of the road team in the Pac 10 eventually. Oregon State probably isn't too thrilled about this, as Phil Knight had been donating money to help keep the team at an elite level.

http://oregon.scout.com/2/658519.html

134
Rickey wanted to be in charge and he thought he knew more about running a baseball team than O'Malley. Rickey tended to think he knew more than just about everybody. In 1963, when that letter was written, Rickey was getting ready to take an advisory job with the Cardinals. The Cardinals would end up winning the World Series the next year despite Rickey getting the GM (Bing Devine) fired and the manager (Johnny Keane) so angry that he resolved to quit at the end of the year.

But O'Malley was a far more savvy businessman than Rickey was. And Rickey wasn't naive in business. But he was no O'Malley.

For all the trades Ned has completed in the last season and a half only 3 players are still on the roster.

Ethier is a plus
Betemit is an enigma
Hendrickson is a tease

136
Sigh

https://griddle.baseballtoaster.com/archives/725610.html

132 - I thought the documentary did a fair job at least in pinning some of the "blame" of the Dodgers leaving Brooklyn on Robert Moses. It was fairer to me than just "piling it on" Walter O'Malley. I can understand how the fans felt but it was nice to shed some light on some of the "behind the scenes" negotiations. I really loved the 1955 series story and interview with the confident young Johnny Podres. Wasn't Sandy Amaros inserted for defense before the 6th inning started? If that was true, that would be the greatest timing of a defensive switch in WS history!!

139- haha, sorry about that Bob - I didn't see that on the side bar and I haven't been around here much lately.

Looks like you'll have to make a trip up to Oregon now, eh?

133. Thanks.

140
It was part defensive replacement, but also Alston had George Shuba pinch hit for Don Zimmer with two on and two out with the Dodgers up 2-0.

Zimmer hit just .239 in the regular season was 2 for 9 in the World Series.

Amoros probably was not starting because he was a lefty and the Yankees were starting a lefty in that game, Tommy Byrne.

In Game 7 of the 1955 World Series, Jackie Robinson didn't play because of a leg injury and Duke Snider and Roy Campanella both had sacrifices.

If the Dodgers had never moved from Brooklyn, Roger Kahn would likely never have become famous.

He should send the O'Malley family a check every year.

143 - Thanks Bob for clearing that up. That's amazing that both Jackie and Mickey (players so identified as legend, you only need their first names) didn't play for their perspective teams in Game 7-both due to a leg injury.

I am in favor of giving Tomko as much rope as he needs. As well as a blindfold and a cigarette.

Why does Bob hate Roger Kahn so much? And is the hate mutual or one-way?

147
I once saw Roger Kahn vandalizing my car.

It was either him or Charles Kuralt.

Some guy mentioned to me a while back about Jackie being benched in 1955:
https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/240473.html

Next week there will be baseball conference at U.C.L.A. during which Frank Robinson will speak on "What Makes a Good Piece of Hitting" and Russ Ortiz and Roger Kahn will sit on a discussion panel titled "The Role of the Double Error in Modern America." Matt Vasgersian will emcee.

150

Vasgersian's a Trojan and wouldn't be welcomed on campus.

I'm curious if anyone has an angle on the rotation decisions that have been made to start the post ASG part of the season.

The only reason I ask is that the Chronicle (here in SF) printed Lowe as the starter to tonight's game, and now it appears Lowe won't pitch until Monday.

So now it's:
Billingsley (last start 7/6, 7 days rest)
Penny (7/5, with 1 IP on Tuesday, 9 days rest, sort of)
Tompko (uh...)
Lowe (7/7, 9 days rest)
Hendrickson (7/8, 9 days rest)

So does it make sense to not pitch Lowe, the innings eater, on 6 days rest?

150 Such an event will surely attract many fans of the St. Louis Cardinals!

153
There will be lots of photos of the Mound City on the Griddle in two weeks! Vacation time!

152 Lowe was never going to pitch tonight. The D's announced a long time ago that Billingsley would start the first game after the break, so the Chronicle just screwed up there.

As for why the rotation is set up the way it is, it could have something to do with having the three guys with flyball tendencies (Penny, Bills, Tomko) pitch in a park where flyballs go to die.

152 I haven't heard any rationale, but Lowe did handle the Phillies pretty well last year in his two starts against them (1.50 ERA) and they are a better team overall than the Giants. That's about all I can muster from looking at the stats.

Latest I heard was that they didn't want Tomko to start amid the boobirds in Dodger Stadium - although he was signed in large part because he supposedly pitched so well in Dodger Stadium.

157
Is this another case of the Eisenreich Paradox?

Eisenreich Paradox

Another Ludlum novel!

158 - West Nile Whitsonia?

155, 156, 157 Thanks!

I suppose it is nice that I get to see Billingsley start tonight, as I haven't seen him start a game before (live).

Hoping for a 5-2 Dodger win, with the Dodgers scoring first and Alyssa Milano's dopleganger pitching the eighth.

New post up top. Do not look directly at it. Rather, view it on a piece of cardboard or paper through a pinhole.

Some guys just can't take the pressure of pitching in L.A.

I've seen them crack before:
Baez
Carlyle
Falkenborg
Mulholland
Springer

It's a long list of broken pitchers, who washed ashore on the rocky reefs of Southern California