From the previous post:

In 2004, Drew was signed instead of Beltre (more or less).

In 2006, Drew opted out, so the team panicked and signed Pierre.

So if the team had re-signed Beltre instead of Drew (and kept Shane Victorino around) maybe just maybe...no Pierre?

1 I don't think Victorino stays. Beltre just takes Drew's spot on the roster. When DePo refused to take Victorino back, it was pretty clear he wanted Repko and Grabowski over him.

And Victorino has now lost his job to Werth, so I'm really confused.

3 i think victorino's dealing with some nagging injuries too, no?

Arizona is apparently going to pay no regard to their run differentials either! They are hot!

Does anyone know the best record achieved by a team with a negative run differential?

Who am I kidding - Bob do you know the answer?

3 The circle of life is complete.

1 Looking back on the free agents from 2005/2006, we might not have Pierre, but in the best case we have Eric Byrnes, and more than likely we have Juan Encarnacion or Jacque Jones.

4 - Victorino hasn't fully recovered from a calf injury about a month ago. But now Werth is killing the ball, so there's no urgency to get Victorino back in there.

I'll say that was Depo's biggest error in his 2 years. And it's most assuredly hindsight, because Victorino didn't seem to be this good. Though the total dearth of centerfield positional players in the organization meant they could've hung on to him a little longer.

5
There's a whole chapter about them in "It Ain't Over". I forget who it was, but the 1997 Giants won 90 games despite being outscored by 9 runs on the season.

The 1987 Twins were outscored by 20 runs and won 85 games and the World Series.

The 1959 Dodgers weren't outscored but they exceeded their Pythagorean record by 7 wins. The second place Braves were -2 and the third place Giants were -4.

8 - So AZ's 91-win pace and current -29 differential is pretty historic. I feel so fortunate to have witnessed it firsthand. :-|

Depo's biggest error in his 2 years

Buying out Izturis arbitration years.
Re-signing Tracy after 2004.

11

The second of those was essentially the poisoned apple that ended his Dodger career.

11 I don't even think Izturis was a terrible move. His D alone made him a valuable player on what was a fairly shaky defensive infield. Sure it hurt when he went down for a year and a half, but even then the move cost, at most, a couple million.

13 And down the road, Izturis got flipped for a piece that got us a 2006 playoff appearance.

10
If the DBacks win the division, I would think that the -29 will go down. They have 18 games left and if they have a winning record in those game, that margin should get to -20 at least.

DePo giving away Dave Roberts for nothing, while not a back-breaker in itself, is what eventually led Ned to spend $45 million on Pierre.

The problem with the Izturis extension was it was in effect stating "This is our SS for the next 3 years".

For a guy that was a black hole on offense, I dont think any extensions should be given like that.

17 "The problem with the Izturis extension was it was in effect stating "This is our SS for the next 3 years".

I don't think you can really say that, given that while the contract was still going, the Dodgers signed another shortstop who immediately and permanently took Izturis' job.

DePo giving away Dave Roberts for nothing, while not a back-breaker in itself, is what eventually led Ned to spend $45 million on Pierre.

How do you figure?
Ned traded away 3 other CF candidates already on the 40 man roster---Werth, Bradley, Ross.

I dont think anyone would want Roberts anyway, and he was a free agent this year so Ned could have signed him instead of Juan anyways.

Pierre and Roberts have had similar seasons. However, Pierre has stayed healthy all season.

That might not be a good thing.

19 I thought the plan for this year was Drew in CF? I guess the main problem was Ned not expecting Drew to opt-out like the rest of the universe did.

Good thing the Dodgers only play three more head to head w/ the Pads. Man I can't get over how much they dominated the Dodgers this year.

So running the numbers...

If the Dodgers get swept:

Pads --
Phils
Dodgers 5.5 back

If the Dodgers lose 2 of 3

Pads --
Phils
Dodgers 3.5 back

If the Dodgers win 2 of 3

Pads --
Phils
Dodgers 1.5 back

If the Dodgers sweep

Dodgers --
Pads 0.5
Phils

I left out the Phils from the equation, but they figure to be somewhere in the middle.

Actually to be honest, I think the Phils have the best shot to get into the WC based on their schedule and other factors.

16 Would we have resigned him anyway? I still don't think that was a bad move because the man was absolutely atrocious on the Dodgers.

Hopefuly, the Rockies sweep the Phils.

Baseball prospectus gives the Padres the best chance of winning the wild card at 31%. The Phillies are 22%. The DBacks are 20%. The Dodgers are 13%. The Rockies are at 8%.

Rockies/Phillies should be a clash of the high scoring, heinous pitching staff titans.

22 - Good thing the Dodgers only play three more head to head w/ the Pads.

I'd prefer more against SD. They haven't played well against them, but the quickest way to catch the team in front of you is to beat them head-to-head. At this point, LA shouldn't be afraid of playing anyone.

22 - Is a 9-6 record domination?

The Phillies have outscored the Rockies by 60 runs and the Rockies have surrendered 57 fewer runs than the Phillies.

The Marlins have given up the most runs in the NL.

The Rockies starters are all banged up, but their bullpen is still in decent shape.

Hopefuly, the Rockies sweep the Phils

Which would likely put the Rockies ahead of the Dodgers in the standings.

30

If that happened, the Dodgers could just get it right back when they play the Rox later on.

28 - Considering there's a chance after this series that it could end up worse than better, and coupled with the 13-5 of last year, it feels like domination to me.

They have won 7 of the last 9.

7 of the last 9 or not, it would be better if we actually had more games against SD. They're the only team between us and the playoffs, so the more times we play them from here on out, the better our chances of making the postseason.

i think we've actually outscored san diego this year. several of their wins against us were of the 1-run variety.

31 I'm not all that confident in plans that involve us winning every single game from here on in.

The Dodgers have outscored the Padres 61-58 this year.

Unless I added wrong.

Which isn't hard to believe as I used implicit differentiation.

Is Little already signed for next year? If not, that's food for thought. Seems most clubs give their managers contract extensions during the season. If Little isn't signed already, that might fuel speculation (Hope?) that his neck is in the noose....

I'm not ready to cut bait on Little yet. This has been a team in transition. Unless you can show me someone who is demonstrably better, I'm willing to see he would do with a little more confidence in the younger personnel - which should come by next year.

36 yeah, i eyeballed the box scores adding the differences (+2, -7, +9, etc...), but i wasn't 100% sure i was right. i thought i finished with +5 but i wasn't being very careful.

Show me a fan base that doesn't hate it's manager and I'll show you a manager who's had a playoff team every year.

40 but also, and i don't think it's a coincidence, most MLB managers seem pretty dumb.

41 Quite true. Since they all pretty much do the same thing, you have to get to Jason Phillips at first base for me to be upset. Anyone we replace Grady with would likely do that exact same things.

37 AP Story

March 20, 2007

VERO BEACH, Fla. --Manager Grady Little got what amounted to a one-year contract extension when the Los Angeles Dodgers exercised his 2008 option Tuesday and added a 2009 team option to his deal.

Per MLB4U.com, Ned has a 4 year deal (2009) and now Grady has a deal through 2008 with a team option for 2009.

If the Dodgers don't exercise the option next spring, Grady Little could be in the same place that Jim Tracy was in 2004.

If we win the next two games, we are half a game out.

I am mourning the two losses this weekend, but we all have to move past it.

I was encouraged seeing Nomar batting eighth if he is in the lineup.

We have six huge games to play. I'm anxious to get at it.

BTW, I have my season seats up for grabs for all the games this week except Friday. Anyone want them?

I remain cautiously optomistic. Arizona keeps winning, but they aren't unbeatable.

I'm telling you, the run differential thing is going to have to catch up to Arizona sometime. If they go on to win the West, look for them to be blown out in the NLDS

So he is signed. I have to agree with all that was said about it. It has been a team effort to get to where they are. And all managers are alike. In more than half a century of suffering with the Dodgers, I was/am convinced that every manager they've had was dumber than a stick. I expect all managers are like that, they figure it's safer to play the same way everybody else does rather than try something new.

46 It is uncanny, but I wouldn't be shocked by them winning the whole thing.

St. Louis showed us last year that if things fall your way for a few weeks, anyone can win it once they are in the playoffs. A team only has to go 11-8 and they can win it all.

That is why I'm not giving up on us yet. We just need to be the team we are capable of being for 19 games. The margin for error is very small now. But it can be done.

I expect all managers are like that, they figure it's safer to play the same way everybody else does rather than try something new

Most GMs are like that too. I'm pretty sure that following the crowd is better for job security. At least, that's how they see it.

38 "I'm willing to see he would do with a little more confidence in the younger personnel - which should come by next year."

I'm not ready to cut bait yet, either, but I can't see any reason for believing that he will begin to have more confidence in younger players. Loney, Billingsley, Ethier, Broxton, Martin, and possibly Kemp have established themselves with Little now -- but during the next two or three years we can probably expect him to be equally afraid of giving playing time to LaRoche, Abreu, Hu, Meloan, Kershaw, McDonald, and Elbert.

49 In another context, the mantra in the biz I used to be in was, "Nobody ever got fired for picking IBM."

Props to Hurdle in the Fungoes column for mentioning Eeyore, my favorite of all the Pooh characters.

51
"But Eeyore, you're all wet!"
"That's generally what happens if you fall into the river."

52 See, Eeyore's a realist. I approve.

50 - I guess we'd better sign him for 2009 then :)

It seems to me that there's about a 50-to-80-game lagtime between when it seems obvious these guys should be front-liners and when Little commits to them.

It's still unclear to me what part of the blame for the suppression of the young players goes to Little and what part goes to Colletti. It should be noted that Kemp, Loney, LaRoche, Meloan, and arguably McDonald all had stretches this year when they would have been best served helping the big league club, but remained in the minors nonetheless.

I'm sure someone will prove me wrong, but didn't the White Sox has a weird run differential when they won it all in '05, or did they just have an uncharacteristic w/l record in 1 run games? It was one of the two.

I'd like to see a lot more consistancy in our management. It's hard to build around something when management is being completely turned over each year. I don't have a problem with Grady at all...he makes some questionable calls, but he seems to make a good leader and have the respect from his players. Ned on the other hand, is a place where I think we can upgrade. I wouldn't mind handing the GM job to Logan with Grady managing and maybe bring in a guy like Orel to play pitching coach/back-up plan on manager. I think Logan deserves a a shot, and if his work to this point in time is an indication of how he will do, I feel we'd have a GM for years to come. Grady would be a nice piece of the puzzle until Orel just flat out replaces him or he retires. At any rate, I think we need personnel in there that will last, something that I don't have a good feeling about with the current personnel.

so is Laroche ever going to start again? Or was 3 starts in a row plenty of time to prove himself.

58
I am guessing he gets the occasional start. For instance, when Nomar needs days off and I do not think they will give them all to Hillenbrand. At least, I hope not.

Of course, if we start losing then maybe they do go to LaRoche.

57 - White and Ng seem to complement each other well. I don't really think Colletti contributes anything besides an impressive index of "proven veteran" quotes to feed the Plaschkes.

60
I agree. Colletti is a puppet at best, who relies on other people to tell him what to do. At worst, he plays the role of "Decider" and makes dumb decisions on his own.

46 why does it HAVE to catch up? just because they've gotten lucky in the past doesn't mean that luck won't continue. to put it another way, if you're planning to flip a normal coin 10 times, and the first 9 times you get heads, that doesn't mean you are any more likely to get tails the 10th time. the odds are still 50-50. sure, in the long run, heads and tails will tend to even out, but 162 games is not that long a run. i don't see why arizona can't finish out a lucky season with < 20 games left.

62

-- but! A run like this resembles going a half hour without hitting the Whammy on "Press Your Luck!" You could end up with 100 thousand dollars, but what if you make a mistake and the next one wipes you bankrupt. That's the impression I get.

By the way, has something like that ever happened? Of course it has, consult your Game Show History books ;)

Well, it would only partially be true to say I was too depressed about yesterday's game to even visit DT until now, since I was also busy most of yesterday. But I feel like it's good they have a day off today, for me, too! The truth is that they have plenty of chances to make up some ground, and quickly, in the next week or two, but are going to have to play more consistently - and the damned lineups need to be more consistent, too - for them to have a shot. I'll be back and (at least temporarily) re-energized tomorrow.

Oh well, at least my Broncos pulled one out in miracle fashion yesterday, even if it was overshadowed by a possible tragedy.

Hey, has anyone seen Shoot Em Up yet? I have a couple of free passes. Looks rather cartoonish but fun(?) Wish I could take the week off just to catch up on movies.

The 2005 White Sox scored 741 runs and gave up 645. They were +8 in expected wins.

62 - But that assumes a true 50/50 outcome. Arizona's run differential would seem to indicate that they are actually a worse team than their record would indicate, and it's only a matter of time before it catches up.

I do agree that they'll most likely make the playoffs, although the Mariners have had an equally odd season, and they've recently hit the skids hard.

The 2005 White Sox were 35-19 in 1-run games.

63 But couldn't the DBacks be like Michael Larson?

66 I'd like to see the D-backs hit the skids hard. They eeked out those games against STL.

I hope we can bring them to earth. We might need to take five of six, but if we somehow sweep them, we can make up all 5.5 games.

We are still in a pennant race. And the two teams ahead of us in the division are head to head with us. I think we are contenders and not pretenders, but we'll find out very soon.

64 "Hey, has anyone seen Shoot Em Up yet?"

I haven't seen this movie. However, Bone Thugs N' Harmony had a great song called "Shoot 'Em Up."

58 Sure would love to see LaRoche hit his first Dodger homer.

70

with Tupac!

I'm still fascinated by Broxton's "bad week" here's what I thought:

1)He's tipping his pitches

2)He's tired & thus making REALLY BAD PITCHES

3)# 3 goes with 2 in that, because he's TIRED his mechanics are off & thus....

4)all of the above.

72 even better is tupac's "hit 'em up". definitely up there on the list of best diss tracks

61 Colletti is a puppet at best, who relies on other people to tell him what to do. At worst, he plays the role of "Decider" and makes dumb decisions on his own.

I don't think there was anyone in the Dodger front office telling him to give Juan Pierre $45 million, or to go after all those ex-Giants, or to sign prospect-blockers like Nomar and Gonzo. That was all Neddie.

I'm not entirely sure about Little. In game, he seems to be pretty good. But I, like most here, do tend to have a problem with him when it comes to filling out the line up card. Given the way this team is built, I'm not sure there's really anyone out there that would be much better.

The one name that keeps popping into my head is Mike Scoiscia - get 'em on, get 'em over, get 'em in. But I doubt Scoiscia is going to be leaving Anaheim any time soon. Another one that we let get away, I guess.

73 - Were the pitches to Soriano and Durham that bad?

76 - The same Mike Scioscia that batted Erstad and Eckstein 1-2 for so many years? The one that thinks it's always the right time to bunt?

A lockdown bullpen, solid starting pitching, and Vlad Guerrero cover for a lot of bad strategy.

75 Do you think Ned makes a $44 million decision without consulting advisors? I think the real questions are who were the advisors and what was their advice?

We made the point earlier of who would be better as a manager. I think we could also ask the same question about the GM: Who is out there that could be better than NedCo?

Unlike the Manager 'search' I think there are several candidates that could do the job as well or better than Ned. For instance, if Bill Stoneman ever gets tired of winning all the time, he might consider a trip up the 5. Billy Beane could eventually wear tired of the small market restrictions, etc. etc.

76 ugh, no thank you on mike scioscia. i can't stand him.

73 My vote goes to:
5) Random chance.

78 - it all goes to how the team is built. If Erstad and Eckstein are the best guys you have at getting on base (but without a lot of power) then hitting them 1-2 makes sense. If you don't have a lot of power (and with the exception of Vlad Guerrero and maybe Garrett Anderson, the Angels have been lacking power for much of his tenure) then bunting is not necessarily a bad idea either. Like I said, given the way the Dodgers are built (no clear 40 HR power guy, but a lot of line drive hitters), I think Scoiscia's approach would be pretty good.

The Cardinals have been forced into the Falkenborg Solution.

It's not working.

73 What's his tell?

I agree that the pitch to Ortmeier was bad, downright Tomkoesque, laser-straight, dead-center, thigh-high. Soriano's was a shin-high fastball on 3-2; hard to blame the pitcher if the hacker whacks a 2-iron shot.

I do find it interesting that a struggling Durham got the bat head around like that on an 0-2 hanging slider, up and inside or on the black against a guy that has a mid-90s fastball to look for.

Yesterday was Broxton's fourth appearance in four days.

75 I'm guessing there was. Ned has a team of special assistants that seem like old school guys. Bill Lajoie especially, though I'm not very familiar with the rest of the team (Toney Howell, Vance Lovelace, Mark Weidemaier)

77

To Soriano NO, but to a left handed hitting Durham YES, down & in to a lefty is asking for trouble in my book.

ps I just saw the replay & Russell Martin was setting up OUT & AWAY & Broxton delivered it DOWN & IN.

83 - and on top of that, Scoiscia has shown not hesitation in going with younger players who are producing.

For the record, Eckstein almost always batted before Erstad.

79 I'm sure he consulted Kim Ng and the other high-level staff. They might've advised for or against the deal, we'll never really know for sure. Nobody quit in disgust over the signing, but that doesn't mean everybody was on board with it.

and in defense of Eckstein and Erstad, they are career .350 and .340 OBP guys, respectively. Those aren't terribly bad numbers, are they?

87 ps I just saw the replay & Russell Martin was setting up OUT & AWAY & Broxton delivered it DOWN & IN.

Hurts the tipped pitch theory, I think. And it was pretty up when Durham hit it, at least thigh-high.

Little calms the waters and keeps everyone grounded. He keeps the focus on the big picture and is never too high nor too low. His demeanor is refreshing. I don't want an Ozzie Guillen running my club.

I always find something I'd do differently if given a chance to fill out a lineup, but Gonzo went deep on Saturday and when Shea threw the ball away, Grady sat him down. We can all second guess a lot of things.

We'll all find positives and negatives about a manager, but overall, Little is a decent one and he's not the issue this year.

We are still figuring out where all the pieces fit. For Arizona it's falling into place with ease, but how much of that is due to managing and how much of that is just the stars being aligned for them? Who knows.

Abreu had some good at-bats yesterday, I wouldn't mind seeing him get a start at third even if it's out of position. Especially if that would give Pierre a day off with Tony hitting second. Or drop Juan to 8th.

82 To me that's why Friday continues to grate on me. I can let yesterday go (outside of a pull/don't pull Penny debate) because stuff like that happens. Friday, Broxton shouldn't have been in that situation; the bottom of the 7th should have gone much differently. (And I will resist the temptation to continue to beat the horse into glue here.)

91 - Juan Pierre has a .347 career OBP.

92

I'm depending on the little window that opens up when you go to the Giants web page & it isn't that good judging from your feed back. I didn't see the game live.

92 - I don't know how he kept that fair. I thought for sure he had hooked it way foul.

I think Little is safe for at least 2008. So too is NedCo. Stability may end up being the best thing for the Dodgers anyway, even if Colletti doesn't always think ahead. Getting rid of him early (see I'm contradicting my own point ealier) would not instill much confidence in the organization, so I'd say at least let him ride it out and see what his vision is. If it's a disaster at least we gave him a reasonable shot. It's only fair.

How long was Malone's reign of terror? I thought it was something like 2 1/2 years.

With the season over for all our minor league teams, my Top 30 Dodger Prospects for 2008 list is buffed and polished, and probably final -- unless I get new information that makes me reconsider something. I am of course assuming that Tony Abreu gets enough MLB AB's before the end of September to no longer qualify for the list. And I'll just note that Elbert and Bryan Morris would rank higher if they were healthy.

(01). Clayton Kershaw, LHP
(02). Andy LaRoche, 3B
(03). Chin-Lung Hu, SS
(04). James McDonald, RHP
(05). Jonathan Meloan, RHP
(06). Blake DeWitt, 3B
(07). Chris Withrow, RHP
(08). Ivan DeJesus, Jr., SS
(09). Josh Bell, 3B
(10). Xavier Paul, OF
(11). Scott Elbert, LHP
(12). Bryan Morris, RHP
(13). Greg Miller, LHP
(14). Andrew Lambo, OF/1B
(15). Delwyn Young, OF
(16). Justin Orenduff, RHP
(17). Wesley Wright, LHP
(18). Ramon Troncoso, RHP
(19). Zach Hammes, RHP
(20). Michael Watt, LHP
(21). Preston Mattingly, 2B
(22). Kyle Smit, RHP
(23). Jaime Ortiz, 1B
(24). Josh Wall, RHP
(25). Austin Gallagher, 3B
(26). James Adkins, LHP
(27). Steven Johnson, RHP
(28). Tim Sexton, RHP
(29). Brian Mathews, 3B/OF
(30). Jaime Pedroza, SS

96 The video highlights on mlb.com are better, I think.

93 Abreu has nearly twice as many innings at 3B for the big club than any other postion, 178 2/3 vs. 90 at 2B, so Abreu at third is not unfathomable. Small sample size, but his splits are much more favorable as a LH batter:
Abreu LH: 98 PAs .322 .357 .411
Abreu RH: 39 PAs .194 .256 .389

I rather see Abreu anytime than Hillenbrand ever again.

95 - that doesn't really answer my question. So let me ask this, what constitutes a "good" OBP?

99--How does Mattingly or Wall even make your list?

99 Lambo just turned 19 last month. Isn't he still pliable? Start teaching him how to play CF now!

64 Underdog is no longer my favorite poster.

103 Projection accounts for something for players that young.

103 And what do you have against Wall? He has decent peripherals, has pitched well enough for a 20 year old, and is still very skinny for his frame. The 7.17 K/9 and 2:1 K:BB aren't fantastic, but aren't exactly bad.

99 "Ivan DeJesus, Jr., SS"

Oh, be still my beating heart. I thought for a moment it was his father, and I hyperventilated.

What's next, Son of DeLino?

105 :-( Aw man. Raiders fan, I take it? Hey, Trainwreck still likes me. I can't help it if I like the Broncos, it's like a life-long incurable disease. Like being a Dodgers fan. ;-)

ooh, ivan dejesus should be good. he's got that vaunted russian first name, latin last name combo.

103 You wouldn't put Mattingly in the Dodgers' top 30 prospects? It's not like one has to be ready for the majors now to make the list...

Canuck, no love for fellow Canuck Kyle Orr? Or is he so new to pro baseball it's too early to even think about it?

underdog, since it was a UH alum who kicked that field goal, I guess I'm kinda sorta a Broncos fan, particularly since the Niners have been so bad for the past six years or so.

99 - great list, CD. i always look forward to your top 30. i'm glad to see dewitt do well in what many considered a "make or break" year in his development. could you talk a little about your projections for hu? i imagine you see him taking over for furcal in 2009.

99

Wasn't there a big buzz on Pedro Baez a few months back here on DT?

103 -- Mattingly had a terrible season, but a prospect list isn't an honors list of statistical achievement. Mattingly still has the great tools that attracted the Dodgers to him in the first place, and like a certain high school basketball player named Matt Kemp, Mattingly is going to have to learn baseball. That Mattingly is going to take longer than Kemp to learn is noted by the fact that Mattingly is ranked as low as the 20-30 range on my list.

Wall had an okay season, nothing great, but there was improvement over last year. At age 20 he is still young, and his body is long and thin, so with more physical development he could take a big step forward. In two years Wall could be just like the 22-year-old, and similarly-built, James McDonald, with everybody suddenly wondering where he came from.

If we are fessing up who we follow in the NFL, I'm a Bears fan.

Not much to cheer about yesterday except maybe an overworked defense that will keep a stumbling offense in more games than it should be in.

Turnovers are so anger producing. I'm not sure if I was seeing things or not, but wasn't it Hillenbrand who fumbled that last one in the fourth quarter?

116 Hmm. Now that you mention it, other than certain ethnic differences, Juan Pierre and Rex Grossman do seem remarkably alike (arm? What arm?).

116

That Bears D' you follow is amazing! If your team had any offense at all they'd be beating everybody.

And at least they don't cheat like the Patriots do.

Steeler fan checking in here.

I'm an NFL orphan. In the AFC I think I'm leaning more and more towards the Chargers. In the NFC, I can't decide between the 49ers and the Cardinals. When in doubt, I just root for whoever is playing the Rams and whoever is playing the Raiders.

104 -- Lambo in CF? He played mostly RF in rookie ball, but Logan White seems to doubt he can play anywhere but 1B long term, which takes a bit of the shine off him until he can prove he can hit at higher levels.

Fun fact: Did you know that the LA Market is officially Chargers Territory? If there is a Chargers game, and it's on CBS, and they're on the road or sold out at home, Channel 2 MUST show the game.

I never knew that.

111 -- Kyle Orr may yet turn out fine, but he didn't impress in rookie ball, so no Top 30 for him -- this year.

121 - still better than them playing the Rams and Raiders like they did for so many years after they left.

118 Like the early 80's, the defense leads the way. But in '85 McMahon turned the scene around by having a fire and will to win. I don't see that in Grossman. He's talented, but he doesn't appear to be a winner with a swagger.

There has to be someone out there that will light a fire under that offense, they have receivers with speed and good hands, and Cedric Benson is ready to bust loose onto the scene.

We just need a quarterback. I wasn't on Grossman last year, you have to be content with a team that wins 13 games with the guy who started every game, but I still wonder what the team would be like with Griese (just because he's the next in line to take a snap) or ????????

It would have been interesting if the Bears nabbed Steve McNair before Balto did.

119 Go for the Cardinals.

I'm too young to remember LA football, so a few years ago I just decided to become a Cardinals fan because I thought they could use another fan. Fortunately, I don't really like football all that much, so their perpetual suckiness has barely affected me.

121 Yawn... the Chargers are not our team. Good luck selling that as the answer to the LA market NFL void.

Though LaDanian can be on any team I like even when he's fifty. That is one talented back. That being said, I hope the Chargers lose the next 15. Just because.

112 Ah, good, Link. Yah, I've loved Elam since the moment they've drafted him, or even before, since I, too, remember him kicking at Hawaii. He was money then, too. You'd enjoy this praise on Yahoo today from James Black:
{madmac, cover your eyes}
"I know Adam Vinatieri is regarded as the best kicker of this era, so much so that people are already suggesting he should be the second kicker (behind Jan Stenerud) inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Given his credentials (the "Tuck Rule" game, Super Bowls XXXVI and XXXVIII), I won't dispute that, but let's not overlook Elam's accomplishments. With his frantic kick with no time remaining against the Bills on Sunday, he has delivered yet another game-winner for the Broncos. Almost as impressive, his make against the Bills kept alive his streak of never having missed three field-goal attempts in one game."

Tonight, for fantasy purposes, I'm an Alex Smith fan.

125 I think Arizona has a very bright future. They appear to be a playoff caliber team now. A good time to be an Arizona Cards fan I think.

121 You can kinda tell that we're Chargers country (deemed by NFL) by how many ads for purchasing Chargers tickets run during the games on tv.

Funny you bring up Alex Smith: I have Leinart going tonight on my Fantasy team. I also have Rivers, but I wisely started Leinart

113 -- I think Hu can play SS comparably to how Loney plays 1B -- with "a better glove than Furcal and a better arm than Izturis," as somebody put it. All that while hitting .285 to .300 with gap power and a few homers. He won't walk much and won't strike out either. I'll take that package before free agency kicks in, at least.

127
We looked so much better then last year, and yet, we still lose to the Lions at home.

Sigh.

130

boy, talk about one post tying in the last three

Canuck, what are your expectations for Withrow?

Dare I say open chat on TV at Season Pass:

http://weblogs.variety.com/season_pass/2007/09/season-pass-cha.html

120 Yes, I know that, and my tongue was most of the way into my cheek with the suggestion, but given how much advantage a very good offensive CF can be, I'd like to dream that a 19-year old with some OF skills can be taught to be a competent CF, unless he's a really slow runner.

Great prospect list, and thanks for all the insight you provide here on the kids.

Canuck, what are your thoughts on Brian Mathews? Is his future in the OF or 3B? Does he project to have any power? And did signability determine his draft spot (45th round, 1359th overall)?

132 I know, sorry man. I even benched Jon Kitna on my FF team 'cause I thought the Raiders pass defense was tough! D'oh. The Lions sure have a wide-open attack, though. Gonna be tough for a lot of teams to stop this year, even if their defense won't stop much either. The Raiders will be better, though, if they figure out how to be more consistent.

My tummy needs an off day from the stress of this pennant race.

Do these guys have any idea what they do to us?

138
Now it is time to battle in Denver!

I hope our defense will play better, just because the Broncos do not have the quality of receivers that the Lions do. Our backup secondary is just terrible. Hopefully, we will actually try to blitz against the Broncos.

72 I shouldn't forget Tupac's contribution. That song has such a great musical vibe, for a song called "Shoot Em Up." I'm a big fan of some of the best Bone Thugs N Harmony. One of their Hits albums consists entirely of really cool remixes of some of their hits (not this song however.)

127 - Here's a good writeup via Deadspin about Elam's kick this weekend:

http://tinyurl.com/yvmlv4

99 Very nice list, Canuck. Last week I put together a top 20 of my own. We agree in most respects, but what are your thoughts on Cory Wade and Pedro Baez, the only two players who appear on my list but not on yours?

1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Andy LaRoche
3. James McDonald
4. Chin-Lung Hu
5. Jonathan Meloan
6. Scott Elbert
7. Josh Bell
8. Andrew Lambo
9. Chris Withrow
10. Ivan DeJesus
11. Blake DeWitt
12. Delwyn Young
13. Bryan Morris
14. Pedro Baez
15. Greg Miller
16. James Adkins
17. Preston Mattingly
18. Xavier Paul
19. Austin Gallagher
20. Cory Wade

I know Wade is old, but he "put it all together" this year in a manner not unlike McDonald. Maybe it's just a case of an older pitcher dominating a league (or, in this case, two leagues), but his stats are so good that I find it hard to discount the possibility that he might contribute in the majors.

121 Chargers are sold-out for the season so I guess you will be seeing all Charger games.

We've come a long way down here from the days when we used to wait for the news on Thursday afternoon to let us know if the game was going to be on TV that week.

134 -- Apparently in the GCL playoff game Withrow pitched in, Withrow's fastball topped out at 98 MPH (sitting in the 92 to 98 range), so I am optimistic about his future. Like every young pitcher, he has to hope to stay healthy, and if (when) he gets hurt, he has to recover well.

AL Player of the Week - Alex Rodriguez
NL Player of the Week - Jack Wilson

For one week, they're equal in quality!

142 Very cool piece, thanks for linking!

140 True, true, though this year Denver's WRs are much better than they were last year - Walker, Marshall and Stokely are no slouches - but yeah, hard to top the Lions' wideouts (beating even the imho overrated set in New England).

137 -- About Brian Mathews, who did surprisingly well when promoted to low A near the end of this season, I read a scouting report on him when he was playing in the GCL in 2006, so this info could be out-dated by now. Anyway, Mathews hits balls hard on the inner half of the plate, and struggles with anything on the outer half, because he is pull-conscious. Defensively at 3B, Mathews has solid hands, good footwork, quick reflexes, and good instincts. However, his throwing is a weakness, because he short-arms everything, like a catcher. Mathews' running speed is below average, and last year he had trouble taking constructive criticism from coaches. I think Mathews played the outfield in Ogden, this year, to accommodate Austin Gallagher, as he moved back to 3B when promoted to Great Lakes. If Gallagher and Mathews are both in Great Lakes next year, Mathews will probably go back to the outfield.

143 -- Pedro Baez is somebody to keep an eye on, but he faded in the second half of the season. He was also a 19-year-old in the GCL, and I am just a little leery of anybody over 18 at that level.

As for Cory Wade, my problem with him is that I have no idea what he throws. No scouting information whatsoever. People like that NEVER make my Top 30 list, regardless of their stats.

142 Thanks for that. I think that's the first time I've ever read anything the author's written, although I've been hearing him on Fridays on All Things Considered for several years.

Maybe Mathews should be converted to catcher ala Martin. If he has good hands and footwork what he would need to work on is throwing and working with pitchers.

I look for Hammes to be removed from the 40 man in the fall.

153 -- Any reason why you believe that? If it is the high ERA he finished the season with, that is pretty much the product of getting killed in one relief appearance and starting most of the year. If Hammes can still throw hard during relief appearances, he'll remain on the prospect radar.

Has anybody done a mock 40-man yet to determine how many spots we might have available for fringe prospects like Hammes?

150

Thanks for that Canuck, if anything I was just curious because we share the same last name. Hopefully he knocks 'em out next season.

I think the 40 man will be very tight this fall and prospects like Troncoso and Wright have passed Hammes. It is not that Hammes is not a prospect, but that he has been eclipsed by other more valuable prospects. When Ned keeps deadwood like Martinez it does not help the 40 man situation.

Boy, I'm glad I didn't have Shayne Graham as my fantasy kicker...

Anyone doubting Mattingly's prospect status should really see him perform in person. Watching him during batting practice, fielding drills and the game, I would easily have guessed him to be the best player on the Great Lakes team. I'm certainly no scout, but having seen them both, I am much higher on Mattingly than I am on Josh Bell. It may sound weird, but the only hole in Mattingly's game is his baseball ability. He has all the tools to succeed.

Bad Altitude Mark is not going to be happy with the run Todd Helton just drove in with his glove...

155 The roster currently has 46 men on it (including 6 60-day DLers). Hernandez, Seanez, Wells, Wolf, Hillenbrand, Saenz, Sweeney, and Gonzalez are probably gone regardless, trimming the roster to 38. One of Moeller/Lieberthal and Martinez/Valdez should be gone (the vets have options, if picked up, then I assume the younger 2 will be DFA'd), which should bring it down to 36. Hamulack should be DFA'd, and Hendrickson and Repko may be DFA'd if the team doen't intend on offering arbitration (is the non tender deadline before the Rule 5? I can't remember). McDonald will be added to the roster, and Orenduff, and Paul likely will be added as well. Wade, Wright, and May have shots at the 40 man as well.

Assuming Coletti only signs a few free agents, guys like Hammes should be safe. However, if Ned's natural tendency to tinker gets the best of him, then Hammes could be gone so we can add Troy Percival to the roster.

155 Why not, I'm bored.

Players in brackets are probable additions
Players with asterisks (I think) need to be added, I could be wrong though.

Note this is a best guess trying to read Ned's mind and not necessarily what I want.

Pitchers (21)
[Beimel]
[New Middle Reliever]
Billingsley
Broxton
Hammess
Houlton
Hull
Kuo
Loaiza
Lowe
Meloan
Miller
Orenduff*
Penny
Proctor
Saito
Schmidt
Stults
[Tsao]
Wade*
Wright*

Catchers (2)
[Lieberthal]
Martin

Infielders(10)
Abreu
Furcal
Nomar
Hu
Kent
LaRoche
Loney
[Martinez/Valdez]
Mitchell*
[New Professional Pinch Hitter]

Outfielders(6)
Ethier
Kemp
Paul*
Young
Pierre
[Repko]

Notable unprotected: Alexander, Dunlap, Ragliani, May
Non Tendered/Waived: Brazoban, Hendrickson, Hamulack, Megrew

159 If not having baseball ability is Mattingly's ONLY hole in his game then I would say he has a dim future.

If you are instead trying to say his only problem is baseball inexperience, then yes, he needs to expand his baseball experience before we can really judge him.

I forgot to add [random free agent] to that list.

163 No, I think I'm really trying to say ability. His potential, however, is huge. If his ability can catch up to his potential, look out world. Believe me, the guy has a future.

162 Thanks. It would be kind of a shame to get rid of Brazoban. I'd rather have him than Hammes, although I don't know whether Ned feels the same.

Also, I think McDonald needs to be added to the roster this offseason.

Leading off tonight for your first place Arizona Diamondbacks: Emilio Bonifacio.

That name is almost as good as Yorman Bazardo.

The DBacks are also batting Miguel Montero in the 5 hole.

Imagine the great ratings an Indians/Angels vs Diamondbacks World Series would bring in.

166 I think it's the same case as with Werth. Arbitration eligible, hasn't really pitched much for two years. I don't think Ned would keep him.

167 That's a name for a pope more than a ballplayer.

169
I would assume any World Series with the Angels in it would get pretty good ratings in Southern California.

However, the 2002 Series got low ratings because people on the East Coast couldn't be bothered to stay up late to watch teams they didn't know much about.

And that was their loss as it was a great series.

I hope our collective Mojo breads bad Karma for the D-Backs, minus Andrew Shimmin of course.

172

hard core east coast BASEBALL fans would disagree with the ratings from what I remember.

Indiana Jon, is there anything -- ANYTHING -- you can do about the name of the new Indiana Jones movie?

http://www.indianajones.com/site/index.html

Please?

Wily Mo Pena has 2 HR and a single tonight off Scott Olsen.

Prompting Ray Knight to say: "I promise you, he'll hit forty if you get him in there to play every day."

(The drop off in color work from Don Sutton to Ray Knight is pretty hard core. I think the drop off might be less if you went from Sutton to Knight on the pitching mound than in the broadcast booth.)

If Saenz isn't re-signed, then Brazoban will become the longest-tenured Dodger. If Brazoban isn't re-signed, then it would be Brad Penny.

175 I saw that today too. Totally awful. I almost wonder if it's a ruse just to throw off the press. Why would they allow Shia LaBarf to announce it?

In the Monday Mailbag, Gurnick mentioned that the Minor League Department highlighted Young, Hu, Ellis, May, DeJesus, and Hoffman in a release to the media. I have no idea if that means the organization thinks highly of those 6 players or not, but I suppose its possible. Even if the Dodgers are high on them, I doubt Ellis, May, or Hoffman are added to the 40 man roster, but I suppose it's possible considering Valdez was placed on the 40 man to protect him from the Rule 5 last year.

178
Because he is dating Rihanna?

That site isn't working for me. What's the new title?

However awful it is, change is always possible. To this day, there is a sticker plastered on the closet door of my boyhood bedroom from some movie called "Revenge of the Jedi."

176 That means Church is even more likely to get dealt this off season. I doubt Ned thinks highly of him at all, but I wouldn't mind Church in CF rather than Pierre.

179 Hoffman was probably just being recognized for his tremendous performance in the playoffs. I doubt they consider him a big prospect at this point.

175 Sure, I'd be glad to help. Before I go talk to the other Indiana about movie titles though, I'm going to need a couple other suggestions to replace it. He hates it when I come to him with a problem and don't have any alternate solutions.

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.

162 -- You think Russell Mitchell would be added to the 40-man, and Megrew would be taken off? Part of what goes into these decisions is the consideration, "If we don't protect X, how likely are we to lose him to the Rule 5 draft?" A young southpaw pitcher not quite ready for primetime is the easiest asset to "hide" on a big league roster for a year. A corner infielder who hasn't played above high A, and whose numbers weren't even that great in high A? No way that guy gets picked, or if it somehow happened, no way he stays on another team's 25-man roster for a year.

185. Did Damien Hirst have anything to do with this?

Indiana Jones and the Quest for Geritol.

We are getting close to a 3-way tie for 2nd place in the NL Wild Card.

Indiana Jones and the Paycheck of Glory.

They are playing in driving rain in Florida.

It's the seventh inning -- with no outs and two on.

This is ridiculous.

Good thing no one in our FF league has Steve McNair as their QB. 3 fumbles lost. (One leads to touchdown.) Ouch.

---

Indiana Jones and the Long-in-the-Tooth GraySkull.

Um, what?

Runners at first and second. No outs.

Driving rain.

Pop fly goes up. No fielder can see it. It drops behind third base. Left fielder picks it up, runner from second has run over towards third, throw beats him there.

At this point, Bob Carpenter starts saying it's an infield fly.

I think to myself, that's not right, no ump called the IFR and the ball was not readily catchable. It was completely uncatchable as demonstrated by the fact that it dropped to the ground 20 feet behind the third baseman who had no idea it was there.

But the batter was indeed called out and the runner who came from second to third was also called, which Bob Carpenter says was right because, with an infield fly he runs at his own risk.

Apparently, I don't know the rules of baseball very well.

193
Apparently an umpire called the infield fly rule. It's not like a team can appeal that to a higher court.

Phillie just tied it up on a Burrell 3 run home run. 7-7

194 Doesn't the umpire have to call the infield fly rule before the ball hits the ground?

Burrell's Post All-Star split coming into today's game:

.328/.442/.661/1.103

I'm really hoping the D-Backs have a bad game.

Indiana Jones - search for Ke Huy Quan

Is the universe against me?

As Burrel homered, the sandwich I put in the toaster oven caught on fire. The wife is at dinner with friends, I have two kids alone for ten minutes and I start a fire. There's smoke everywhere, french bread can really burn.

The Rockies need pitching. Then they'll be scary. Until then, they are an offensive team with offensive pitching. I just hope they can pull this one out tonight.

What would it be like to be a kid and have your dad coach a major league team?

Well, you might get to ride the team charter, shag fly balls with the players, play Dance Revolution at Dodger Stadium and make friends with Jeff Kent's kids.

http://tinyurl.com/yv392x

143
186
162
Thanks for the lists.

This is the quote I read about Lambo from Logan regarding outfield and 1st base.
http://www.truebluela.com/story/2007/9/7/17213/00639

Apparently in the GCL playoff game Withrow pitched in, Withrow's fastball topped out at 98 MPH (sitting in the 92 to 98 range)

holy crap thats awesome. In high school he was topping out around 94.

196
An umpire must have called it in the air. The rule isn't applied ex post facto. Maybe you just didn't see it.

203 Freakin' Calvinball. I saw alright.

An injustice went down tonight in South Florida.

I'm watching a Red Sox game while waiting for the snakes/giants. I think of them as a slugging team but they are playing Cora at ss with Lugo as the dh. Also Manny and Ortiz are not playing.
Are we wrong in our evaluation of Cora and Lugo?

What a double play by Coco and Cora. Of course I loved our defense with Beltre, Izzy and Cora.

Jamarcus Russell finally signed. Now we have to find out if he is any good.

204
Maybe you just didn't hear it.

204- Maybe the umpire was the same guy who was in the replay booth at the UCLA/BYU game.

For the record: Just because I've come to accept the glory that is the Arizona Diamondbacks, it doesn't mean I'm rooting against the Dodgers. My hope is that they make the playoffs, and that the D'backs do, too. My hierarchy of hope:

1. Dodgers and D'backs make the playoffs (I don't care about which wins the division, and which the wild card)
2. Dodgers make the playoffs, D'backs don't.
3. D'backs make the playoffs, Dodgers don't.
4. Rockies make the playoffs.

Oh those Nationals Sam. 5-4 in the eighth.

199 The Rockies need pitching. Then they'll be scary. Until then, they are an offensive team with offensive pitching

This is a cliche, and not true. Factoring in park and league, the Rockies' offense has been exactly average this season, with a 100 OPS+ (it was 99 in 2006).

Their pitching has been better than league average this season and last, with a 107 ERA+ in 2007 and 103 in 2006.

I really appreciated Sam DC as an interesting contributor to DT. I'm not sure I can say the same about him turning me into a second order Nationals fan, but it seems to have taken.

200 That's a good story. Half of me is impressed that an 11-year old wrote such a long and well written article.

The other half of me for some reason harbors insane jealousy toward a child for having such sweet access, and I want to send Andrew Shimmin over to the Jauss household to explain the truth about the Easter Bunny. :)

209
Right with ya, except for number 4.

I always look forward to your list, Canuck. Thanks.
Does Hoffman have to be added to the 40 man or be exposed to the Rule 5?

and Howard slices one into the left field corner that Holliday boots and then can't find, plating Utley for a 6-5 Phils victory in 10!

The Rockies chances of making the playoffs weren't helped tonight.

Rockies lose in the 10th.

DBacks have 2 on in the top of the 2nd, 1 out.

218
Yeah, but which base?

Miguel Montero singled off the fence in dead center and then was out at FIRST 8-4-2-5.

215 -- I don't think Hoffmann has to go on till after next season -- if the Dodgers even want to protect him.

I don't know if I can do this. I'm rooting for the Giants to slow down the snakes. But my "natural self keeps rooting for Ariz. Is this normal.

Giants lead 2-0 on a homer by Molina and an RBI single from Frandsen.

209
Why not root for Depo's team...?

Pat Burrell: 17 homers, 53 RsBI, .670 slugging...since the All Star Break.

215 , 221 If my calculations are correct, Hoffmann does need to be protected. As I understand it, the rule is that a player who signs at age 18 or earlier has five seasons before he must be protected, while a player who signs at 19 or later has four.

Hoffmann had the misfortune to sign with the Dodgers on his 19th birthday, if his Baseball Cube page is to be believed. Thus he had 4 years of minor league ball before he had to be protected. He played in 2004, 05, 06, and 07, which means he needs to be protected.

Short Chris Young just flied out sharply to center field.

I'd hate to get nothing for Hoffmann, but I know I'm sentimental. He seems to keep improving.

224 Or even better still, why not just root for the Dodgers only? {he says in Dana Carvey's grumpy old man voice}

206 Congrats. Now how long do you think it'll be before he makes an impact, or at least plays? Later this season? Whither Andrew Walter? ;-)

Good to see the Cardinals' offensive line's improved. :-/

227
If by "sharply" you mean, Dave Roberts had to make a running catch hitting the wall with his back to the infield, then I guess it was hit sharply.

Man, tonight's NFL games are sloppy as heck.

Or even better still, why not just root for the Dodgers only?

That's not edgy enough for some.

Yes Nats! Yes Giants! ouch.

Why not root for Depo's team...?

since when is Depo running a team?

230 Call me when Roberts has to climb a big hill to make the catch.

The Giants have bunted into double plays in consecutive innings. And neither involved bunts in the air.

Bonds hits a 380 foot single, hustles into first.

Wow, what happened to the crowd over at AT&T park? I guess most of the fans went to the 49ers game instead.

238 Well, that's definitely part of it, yeah. And it's Monday night. And it's not the Dodgers.

232 I almost think rooting solely for the Dodgers is actually edgier at this point.

238
They probably sold a fair amount of tickets for the game. I doubt the Giants are too torn up.

Midweek games in September for teams out of the race are tough sells.

Stop running the ball, Leinart :)

Yea but what about the "spoiler factor" for the Giants?

224- I've had enough of the Padres. The NL West's redemption from the shame of 2005 will not be complete till a new team wins the division.

Anyway, I'm indifferent to DePo. He got worked over, and that's too bad all around. But, then what? There are half a dozen teams (most in the AL) where, if he landed the GM position, I could start rooting for them. But I can't see rooting for any team based on its AGM.

It just occurred to me both the baseball and the football game by the Bay are SF vs Arizona. How about that?

But I can't see rooting for any team based on its AGM

What, pray tell, is your justification for supporting Arizona? If the Dodgers can't make the playoffs, why not root for the relatively Sabre-friendly Padres over the relatively Whostosabre-friendly Dodgers?

243 If I had to point out the one man most responsible for me rooting for the Dodgers, it'd be my dad. But if asked for the one man most responsible who is actually employed by the Dodgers, it'd be one of their AGMs (hint: the one that's actually a man).

229
If we stink real bad, then late into this season. If not, then next year.

And I am amazed Livan Hernandez is still pitching with how bad his stuff is now.

245
I root for neither, but Josh Byrnes is pretty Sabre-friendly too.

245 I can tell you the justification is not Peter Woodfork.

244 And I can't decide which is more boring...

---
Yeah Livan looks more like Roberto at this point.

Wow, Justin Medlock got cut already by the Chiefs.

Sign him up, Raiders!!

Still waiting for the when NedCo Signs Livan to a 5 year contract ;)

And this ESPN announcer doesn't help liven things up... zzzzzzzzz...

Sigh. Why on earth did I start Alex Smith this weekend again?

Wow, Moligna has two homers tonight. If he were as fast as Martin or as good defensively he might surpass him. I think he has 19 homers now.

253
Not a fan of Mike and Mike are you?

I always thought Depo's title is assistant to the GM.

Bob, it's Mike and Mike... and Mike tonight! Mike Ditka is sitting in too.

New post up top.

256 Ditka and Golic are like Rosencrantz and Gildenstern compared to listening to the lead announcer - also Mike? - who is just so incredibly dull I feel like I could be watching golf.

Bengals won, and if the Cardinals win as they should at the Stick..Palmer and Leinart, USC Glory in the NFL!

With 19 games to go 13 wins will equal last year's 'W' column, don't thnik that'll do for this year. I say we need to get to 14 to make it to October.

257 It's not even that. He's the Special Assistant, Baseball Operations.

I'm not big on purity purges of any stripe. Any ideology that demands I like the Red Sox isn't for me. The Twins are a fun team, whether they're run exactly as I think best or not. I like the Brewers, but know virtually nothing about their management. Fun teams are fun. Anyway, Byrnes's sabermetrical bona fides should be sufficient.

Bonifacio--ist hit and an RBI. Who wouldn't want a name like this. And Bob has prepped me.