Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
How Tampa Bay manager and former Angels coach Joe Maddon approaches the use of statistics, as told to David Laurila of Baseball Prospectus:
Andrew and James Click supply me with a lot. I get the regular packet on a daily basis, and I go to ESPN.com and look at what's presented there. Then, Clicker presents me with this analysis based on groundball and flyball percentages, like, is this guy a groundball or flyball pitcher, and do hitters with a bit of an uppercut maybe have a better opportunity to hit against him than someone who is more of a flat-swinger. This is the kind of stuff I've paid attention to in the past, but now the information is there to look at, and it's backed up by numbers. So I might make a decision of who to play based on whether someone appears (on the printout) in blue, or if they appear in red, which is a negative, or in black, which is more neutral. Then I'll try to read into it deeper to see if there's anything I can use to exploit a matchup. Another thing I'll do is look at the opposing pitcher to see how he's been doing recently, and sometimes I'll look at box scores to see how he did in right-on-right, or right-on-left, matchups against certain hitters I'm pretty knowledgeable about. I'm telling you man, when I'm trying to set this thing up on a daily basis, I'm looking at a variety of sources of information. I'm always looking for an edge. My mind never really shuts off. ...
The notion of the 'old school'- it's very difficult to get someone from that genre to want to study stats and analyze them as a method of making decisions. Instead, it's going to be primarily based on previous history, gut reaction, and whatever the book says. That's where the old school differs, and I'm not saying it's wrong, but that group just wasn't used to having all of this information available to make a decision. Of course, that group will make fun of this group, because in their minds the decisions are being made by a computer as opposed to good old baseball common sense. That always makes me laugh, because to me the best way to make decisions is to combine that good old baseball common sense with the information that is available - then you morph into this even better baseball mind. Somebody mentioned to me that they think I'm a pretty good combination of the old and new school, and I think that's the highest compliment I've been given as a manager and an instructor.
Regarding ex-Dodger Edwin Jackson, who is enjoying a fine second half, Maddon added the following:
When you look at Edwin Jackson this year, and how he started out, it would be easy to say that in most places he'd be long gone by now. But we're developing him into what he's going to be in the future, which is a power pitcher who can throw his 99th pitch at 99 miles per hour.
I guess Maddon's the guy.
There's some patient management and ownership now in Tampa Bay. The days of Wade Boggs and Fred McGriff acquisitions are long past. It's still hard to imagine the Rays ever finishing higher than third in that division, because they will always have a budget 1/5th of NY's and 1/4th of Boston's, but I'm pulling for them and for Maddon.
I think Manny Acta "gets it" too, right...?
You look at their young players coming of age this year - and they probably had a few more great ones ready to come of age this year than the Dodgers do, and then some of their international signings and so on.
And they have a couple of their own overpriced, underperforming veterans to be sure.
I'm not sure what I'm getting at exactly except I see a possible future for the Dodgers in the Mariners, if they don't muck it up too much.
It's not that "old school" doesn't have it's place. Like Maddon said, just gather as much information as you can. How a General Manager or coach wouldn't know what VORP or EqA is baffles me. You don't have to become a total stat nerd.
But wouldn't you want as much information as you can get?
Obviously, they were wrong. But had Colletti known the fate awaiting them, would he have done more at the trading deadlines, or less? For some writers and fans, the mistake Colletti made was not getting Teixiera and Blanton. I heard all about that on Fox's broadcast yesterday. Is that going to be what McCourt thinks, too? That we just needed more "proven veterans" to avoid finishing way out of contention?
Lessons are going to be drawn from this season's collapse, but they might be the wrong ones.
Because I don't follow the Nats as closely as some of you, how does Acta relate to Bowden, who has never struck me as anything but Extremely Old School.
I'm not sure I agree about Francona. The Red Sox are just loaded. Perhaps Francona gets reflected glory from having Kevin Youkilis.
Scioscia is a great manager, but he's more of a "heart and soul" type, I think.
I like Grady a lot as a person, but he doesn't take full advantage of the numbers game. Colletti is a mystery. I don't necessarily mind having Proven Veterans on the team, but I'd prefer that they're actually still solid players. Over the last month, Ned's seemed very reactive instead of pro-active... which isn't exactly how you'd want your GM to act.
The starting lineup is fine, and the fact is, most of the guys we want are in fact in the lineup. That they're not in all the time, well that's on Grady. I figure, maybe blindly hope, that NedCo puts the emphasis on getting pitching help next season, not hitting so much (unless he finds a way to get A-Rod [Furcal at 2nd, LaRoche at 3rd, A-Rod at Short])
By "starting lineup" I meant, the everyday players. Again, the lineups themselves are more on Grady, we have the position players to get the job done if they'd just get used right.
Also, who do you propose we replace Colletti with?
My Vote.....Jon Weisman in 08!!
Bishop gets a louder and clearer Dodger radio broadcast better than LA does.
Monday seems to provide a pleasant broadcast and is easy to listen to but I now realize that listening to him was like relaxing with some ballgame being heard in the background. I wasn't sure who was up to bat when something exciting happened. I turned the game off rather than try to find the clearest station in LA and wonder who it was that hit the ball when I mentally tuned into the broadcast.
It seems clear that if McCourt is unhappy with Ned he is going to hide it because the PR people are telling him that he can't make another change so soon.
Bridging the time when the younger players are ready to play full time through October with older vets appears to be a bridge that is crumbling with age.
They obviously took the right approach with Edwin, but i'm not sure Maddon is that great of a managerial choice.
If having to explain your philosophy and defend decisions is too big a game for Ned Colletti, we're in a lot of trouble.
Doesn't leave much time for Watching Outs, but I'll try to catch up soon.
I really don't think that Colletti's unteachable. The problem (I suspect with both him and McCourt) is absence of vision, as suggested in the last thread. Y'know..."play the kids...so long as they don't actually struggle." The moment they do (or even, the moment management begins to fear they will), it's back to throwing stuff against the wall to see what sticks. It's the extension of this principle that makes me fear what DzzrtRatt suggests above: lessons will be drawn from all this, but alas not the right ones.
I doubt we're ever going to look at Edwin Jackson the way Mets fans do at Scott Kazmir. At the same time, mightn't we have been better off letting him develop than trotting out Bret Tomko in the first place? That's the fortitude current ownership lacks: a willingness to face the roasting they'd take from the hoi polloi for a year or two while developing a truly solid foundation.
The point that is made in your post goes to heart of the problem that the Dodgers have had this year. When it was clear that both Tomko and Hendy were struggling early on has starters, it was only a matter of time when some of the other problems the Dodgers had were going to come home to roost. If you bring up Hull for a longer time or even bring Meleon up, by giving them a shot for a longer time at the Major League level, I think we might have been better off.
Ned like his mentor Sabean do not believe in allowing youngsters to play through some errors at the major league level!
http://tinyurl.com/26odds
"I think they're a .500 club," a National League scout said. "They made their run when the young guys came up, but the kids have kind of plateaued and the old guys are near the end of their careers. They'll have to get by on starting pitching, and the starting pitching isn't that good."
And Pierre (no power, no patience, nothing but singles and mediocre defense) should have ruled out giving any playing time to the likes of Hillenbrand.
He is not a mystery anymore. He's a old-school guy with antiquated ideas of what constitutes good performance, and he has scoffed publicly at the idea of learning about new metrics.
That he hasn't traded away the crown jewels is only, I think because every "school" sees how good those guys are. Scouting and stats agree.
And I'm sorry if this offends; I don't mean it to, but that particular phrase (SofK) is straight out of bad space opera. ;)
I remember when I was saying I still rather have Edwin than Hendrickson and Tomko earlier in the year when he was doing badly and most people basically thought I was crazy.
I don't remember most people thinking you were crazy. I thought the general consensus around here was that 23-year olds who throw 99 MPH don't grow on trees, and that he was hardly washed up.
Not earlier, most had said he was never going to make it and those who thought he would were leaving in past dreams.
>> The 6-foot-2-inch, 230-pounder is batting .337 with 19 homers and 75 RBIs in 68 games with Las Vegas, and the soft-spoken slugger is on the Dodgers' radar.
"He's got a chance," Los Angeles general manager Ned Colletti said. "He's obviously bucking the odds at this stage, at 30 years old, but he's probably got a better chance today than he's ever had in his whole career. <<
## 51s third baseman Andy LaRoche was activated from the disabled list, and catcher Octavio Martinez was placed on the DL. ##
http://www.lvrj.com/sports/9380661.html
47 It's hard not to root a little for Lindsey.
43 Absolutely true. Of course, most of us would add the, "But if they hadn't traded Betemit..." clause to that thought. But it's true. I actually miss Nomar at this point. And LaRoche, I guess we'll see him in a week if he doesn't hurt himself.
I feel like one of the problems for the Dodgers this year is they've either learned things too late (Brett Tomko) or not at all (Hernandez, etc). And losing basically half their main starting pitching rotation for the year didn't help.
Uh, Betemit
Penny
Lowe
Wells
Beimel
Broxton
1. Wells - well documented drinking skills, huge gut can absorb all kinds of booze
2. Lowe - experience matters
3. Beimel - allegedly doesn't drink anymore, but I would give this guy dark horse status. Doesnt seem too big but has that crazy look in his eye
4. Penny - is a big guy but he doesn't look like a huge boozer to me
5. Broxton - seems almost too quiet to be the drinking type
Hanrahan had a 40 pitch second inning w/4 walks. Ouch - only 2 runs b/c Ryan Zimmerman caught a foul falling into the stands.
Austin Kearns just made a tough catch xrashing into the wall and got a standing O from the Rockies fans.
The list of names that could come back and bite us grows: Kyle Blair, Denker, Betemit, Jackson, Guzman as does the list of names that have no role on the 2008-2009 Dodgers whatsoever: Wells, Hernandez, Hillenbrand, Sweeney, Martinez, Saenz. I'll speak for myself in saying 2005 was easier to stomach than 2007.
"When Myers was asked about the two home runs, he said they were really 'just pop ups.'
A reporter from the Philadelphia Inquirer questioned whether Myers really thought they were pop ups, and Myers got angry.
'You're not even a beat reporter, you're a fill-in, you don't know anything about baseball,' said Myers, who then called the reporter 'retarded.'
The Inquirer reporter asked if Myers could spell retarded, and Myers stood up. Burrell then restrained Myers, and Myers refused to speak any further."
the visual of that whole ordeal gives me the giggles.
The fact that he does not elaborate on that statement makes me question it.
Replacement players an bee in AA, AAA or in the scrap heap..if you rely on 29-36 year old guys that you know what they CAN do and are available...they likely have no UPSIDE...how can you win a world series with replacement players...Tonko, Hend, Hill, Hernandez, Ramon...and tell Grady too!
PS I think even the better middle relievers offer little value over replacement.
really...
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN200609180.shtml
Is it ever too early to double switch out the young Loney in the FIFTH inning for the quite average Sweeney, also LH? Are they trying to kill his confidence? Are we trying to "Choi" him?
We've lost Denker now because the switch- hitting Young, hitting .400 or .500, couldn't stay in the bigs thru August...we needed another average old ex-Giant? If we had a roster spot for Sweeney, why not for the hungry, young kid? To just pinch hit!
We haven't called up Meloan for ONE reason...service time...thats why we NEEDED Proctor...needed Hernandez...
This is all so Tracy-like...
now back to your regularly scheduled Dodger Thoughts...
Even they know what it takes to score in baseball.
And yet, amazingly, our CF has a higher OBP. By a lot.
http://www.azsnakepit.com/
http://tinyurl.com/3xdzxk
With all the Ned Colletti talk, maybe it'd be a nice time to revisit the "DePo and Colletti really arent that different" article Jon posted over a year ago.
The jury has returned the verdict.
Yes. This is the issue with Jamarcus Russell. Russell's agents want to make it impossible for the Raiders to take back bonus money no matter what and that has never happened in NFL history.
25 homers in 82 games
.332/.377/.640
On Baseball America's list of top 100 prospects in 2007, Braun was only listed at #26.
Last guy to make an impact this big in his 1st season was Albert Pujols.
I see your point JoeyP but he also had mechanical & command issues, he was still very very young for the Dodgers to give up on though. When you look back at it NOW it was just a disaster the whey they brought him up, it still kind of erks me.
His OPS is .748 which is above Arizona's team OPS of .713, so I would say it doesn;t hurt them at all. Throw in his position, the 30 home runs, and some stolen bases and I would say he doesn't hurt much, especially for a rookie.
Essentially you want both that way both are on the same page, which to me seems essential.
I should have said mechanical issues that lead to command problems.
Not me, but there do seem to be some others rooting for them. Mainly the players families it looks like.
114 Or the poor guy just can't take it anymore.
--
Speaking of football, I just watched a few minutes of the worst NFL game I've seen in awhile (rerun on the NFL Network). Granted, it's an exhibition game, but the Giants-Jets game is awful in too many ways to count, with a 6-5 score near the end of the half. {click}
Eric - Nats folks do get Dodger updates. it's funny, those are more gripridden than my Nats updates here, at least as far as off the field stuff. Though Nats chat is actually not at Cap Pun but is at a sort of chat-only non-blog.
Right now I'm at scenic Pfitzner stadium. The Potomac Nationals are doing a better job with the Mrtyle Beach Pelicans than the DC Nats did with the Rockies.
maybe I'm a little anxious seeing Boomer sport a Dodger Uni.
ps Georgia hits a dramatic late inning dinger to win!! 3-2 Georgia
Pierre, CF
Kemp, RF
Kent, 2B
Ethier, LF
Hillenbrand, 3B
Loney, 1B
Lieberthal, C
Wells, P
That's a very telling lineup. Little manages "must-win" games differently, and plays clubhouse politics otherwise.
Or that's my conjecture anyway.
I hope there is clubhouse dissent against Little. That would show me the young cares care, which I think they do.
Maybe the Dodgers could have left Denker unprotected this fall and still had him after the Rule V Draft. I would guess that the Giants probably feel they can do that since he is a 22 year old middle infielder who has not advanced beyond High A ball.
But I think the best Denker had to look forward to next year was perhaps Jacksonville, the Giants, lacking in any positional depth, probably will slot him on their AA club next year.
Also, since Preston Mattingly is apparently going to play second, he will probably advance sometime to the Cal league next year. Dewitt still has another year before needing to be added to the 40 man roster.
Joe is otherwise a lot like Grady with respect to his lineups and so everybody has batted just about everywhere in the lineup. To take just the one example, Carlos Pena has hit in every position in the lineup but leadoff. Iwamura is otherwise not a leadoff hitter. And if you're otherwise going to bat Crawford 2nd, you might as well have him hit leadoff as it's hard for him to steal 2nd when that base is occupied by Iwamura. His batting order should be:
Crawford
Harris
Pena
Upton
Young
Iwamura
Gomes
Wilson
Paul
This shows that, at heart, Little knows what lineup give him the best chance to win.
But to placate some of the older players and their agents, he doesn't always use it.
Anyhow I like the Lineup tonight. Can't remember when I saw Loney, Kemp and Ethier together. Of course it depends on if the Boomer is even in pitching shape. And if he is, will it be different from his recent shape? As Edgar Winter put it "Lord Knows".
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