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About Jon
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
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Thoughts From the Southeast
2007-08-26 09:58
by Jon Weisman

How Tampa Bay manager and former Angels coach Joe Maddon approaches the use of statistics, as told to David Laurila of Baseball Prospectus:

Andrew and James Click supply me with a lot. I get the regular packet on a daily basis, and I go to and look at what's presented there. Then, Clicker presents me with this analysis based on groundball and flyball percentages, like, is this guy a groundball or flyball pitcher, and do hitters with a bit of an uppercut maybe have a better opportunity to hit against him than someone who is more of a flat-swinger. This is the kind of stuff I've paid attention to in the past, but now the information is there to look at, and it's backed up by numbers. So I might make a decision of who to play based on whether someone appears (on the printout) in blue, or if they appear in red, which is a negative, or in black, which is more neutral. Then I'll try to read into it deeper to see if there's anything I can use to exploit a matchup. Another thing I'll do is look at the opposing pitcher to see how he's been doing recently, and sometimes I'll look at box scores to see how he did in right-on-right, or right-on-left, matchups against certain hitters I'm pretty knowledgeable about. I'm telling you man, when I'm trying to set this thing up on a daily basis, I'm looking at a variety of sources of information. I'm always looking for an edge. My mind never really shuts off. ...

The notion of the 'old school'- it's very difficult to get someone from that genre to want to study stats and analyze them as a method of making decisions. Instead, it's going to be primarily based on previous history, gut reaction, and whatever the book says. That's where the old school differs, and I'm not saying it's wrong, but that group just wasn't used to having all of this information available to make a decision. Of course, that group will make fun of this group, because in their minds the decisions are being made by a computer as opposed to good old baseball common sense. That always makes me laugh, because to me the best way to make decisions is to combine that good old baseball common sense with the information that is available - then you morph into this even better baseball mind. Somebody mentioned to me that they think I'm a pretty good combination of the old and new school, and I think that's the highest compliment I've been given as a manager and an instructor.

Regarding ex-Dodger Edwin Jackson, who is enjoying a fine second half, Maddon added the following:

When you look at Edwin Jackson this year, and how he started out, it would be easy to say that in most places he'd be long gone by now. But we're developing him into what he's going to be in the future, which is a power pitcher who can throw his 99th pitch at 99 miles per hour.

Comments (132)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2007-08-26 10:18:33
1.   Howard Fox
Joe Maddon in 2008!
2007-08-26 10:23:50
2.   dzzrtRatt
Over the years on this site, I've asked the more saber-minded posters to point to an existing MLB example of a manager who gets it.

I guess Maddon's the guy.

There's some patient management and ownership now in Tampa Bay. The days of Wade Boggs and Fred McGriff acquisitions are long past. It's still hard to imagine the Rays ever finishing higher than third in that division, because they will always have a budget 1/5th of NY's and 1/4th of Boston's, but I'm pulling for them and for Maddon.

2007-08-26 10:25:28
3.   D4P
I think Manny Acta "gets it" too, right...?
2007-08-26 10:25:37
4.   underdog
This only tangentially relates, but I was thinking last night about the Seattle Mariners, and how their team this year compares to the Dodgers. I mean, how the roster is built, and will the Dodgers of '08 (and 09) have potential to be similar...

You look at their young players coming of age this year - and they probably had a few more great ones ready to come of age this year than the Dodgers do, and then some of their international signings and so on.

And they have a couple of their own overpriced, underperforming veterans to be sure.

I'm not sure what I'm getting at exactly except I see a possible future for the Dodgers in the Mariners, if they don't muck it up too much.

2007-08-26 10:29:48
5.   Greg Brock
2 Acta, Maddon, Francona are three off the top of my head.

It's not that "old school" doesn't have it's place. Like Maddon said, just gather as much information as you can. How a General Manager or coach wouldn't know what VORP or EqA is baffles me. You don't have to become a total stat nerd.

But wouldn't you want as much information as you can get?

2007-08-26 10:32:19
6.   Dello
what stat was Grady looking at yesterday that told him to put in Hernandez in the 8th inning down by only one run?
2007-08-26 10:39:49
7.   LogikReader
Not sure where he is in SABR statistics, but I'd also like to nominate Mike Scoscia as someone who "gets it."
2007-08-26 10:41:39
8.   Vishal
[7 ] um.. why?
2007-08-26 10:44:05
9.   PlayTwo
Edwin Jackson has died and gone to heaven.
2007-08-26 10:54:22
10.   Louis in SF
When I read this article and relate it to the 2007 Dodgers, I just keep on wondering why the Dodgers ignore certain old school numbers, in the case of Tomko and Hendrickson and Hernandez, and have been un willing to take a gamble on what seem to be equal if not better options in the minors. I keep on wondering had Hull Stultz been up longer with the big club in the season, would their overall pitching improved enough to accept some of the risks
2007-08-26 10:54:33
11.   dzzrtRatt
Picking up some things I saw at the end of the last thread... From where we stand right now, the Proctor/Hillenbrand/Wells/Sweeney hires look a lot more ridiculous than perhaps they did at the time. It was only how many weeks ago that the Dodgers had the best record in the National League? When the DT day at Dodger Stadium happened, we were all talking to a confident, cocky Dodger owner and PR staff who were looking at the world through first-place goggles, which probably reflects the way Colletti and Little were thinking, too. "My team of proven veterans combined with a few young prodigies like Broxton and Martin is kicking butt. Man, it's great what happens when everyone's 'on the same page.'" The new players were just replacement parts for players they were disappointed in (Tomko, Saenz, Betemit), who would marginally improve what they believed was a first-place team.

Obviously, they were wrong. But had Colletti known the fate awaiting them, would he have done more at the trading deadlines, or less? For some writers and fans, the mistake Colletti made was not getting Teixiera and Blanton. I heard all about that on Fox's broadcast yesterday. Is that going to be what McCourt thinks, too? That we just needed more "proven veterans" to avoid finishing way out of contention?

Lessons are going to be drawn from this season's collapse, but they might be the wrong ones.

2007-08-26 11:02:56
12.   GoBears
11. Oh, they'll almost certainly be the wrong ones. I think we have a pretty read now on how Colletti thinks, and while we can't predict which washed-up mediocrities he'll rotate in next year, we can be sure there'll be a passel of 'em.
2007-08-26 11:03:51
13.   GoBears
Er, that should be "pretty good read." The read itself is anything but pretty. Darn adverbs!
2007-08-26 11:04:22
14.   dzzrtRatt
3 The very mention of Acta's name got DePodesta fired!

Because I don't follow the Nats as closely as some of you, how does Acta relate to Bowden, who has never struck me as anything but Extremely Old School.

I'm not sure I agree about Francona. The Red Sox are just loaded. Perhaps Francona gets reflected glory from having Kevin Youkilis.

Scioscia is a great manager, but he's more of a "heart and soul" type, I think.

2007-08-26 11:05:53
15.   Disabled List
Dodger fans are going to be viewing Edwin Jackson the same way Mets fans now view Scott Kazmir.
2007-08-26 11:10:29
16.   Telemachos
14 The thing about Scioscia is, he knows exactly what type of team he has, and manages to their strengths. He doesn't have a lot of power on the team, so he stresses aggressive baserunning... but has the numbers available, so that instead of just blind running, he's using percentages to his advantage, which is certainly a "new school"-ish approach. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but I remember an article about the Angels' first-to-third-on-a-single base-running where Scioscia pointed out that although it's considered a risk, the Angels had only been thrown out 3 times in 51 attempts, since they scouted opposing outfielders' arms and trained baserunners how to know when to take the chance.

I like Grady a lot as a person, but he doesn't take full advantage of the numbers game. Colletti is a mystery. I don't necessarily mind having Proven Veterans on the team, but I'd prefer that they're actually still solid players. Over the last month, Ned's seemed very reactive instead of pro-active... which isn't exactly how you'd want your GM to act.

2007-08-26 11:10:32
17.   LogikReader
NedCo can't be so dumb as to think that "lack of veteran leadership" is the reason for the 1st to 3rd collapse. It is quite obvious to anyone that the collapse was due to lack of solid pitching, or more importantly, 2/5th of the rotation going down.

The starting lineup is fine, and the fact is, most of the guys we want are in fact in the lineup. That they're not in all the time, well that's on Grady. I figure, maybe blindly hope, that NedCo puts the emphasis on getting pitching help next season, not hitting so much (unless he finds a way to get A-Rod [Furcal at 2nd, LaRoche at 3rd, A-Rod at Short])

2007-08-26 11:11:35
18.   LogikReader

By "starting lineup" I meant, the everyday players. Again, the lineups themselves are more on Grady, we have the position players to get the job done if they'd just get used right.

2007-08-26 11:19:04
19.   Brian Y
1. Maddon in 08 would be nice but what about Schumacher down in Jax? He's done a great job with our AA team AND knows our current players like Kemp, Brox, Martin, Loney, etc very well.

Also, who do you propose we replace Colletti with?

My Vote.....Jon Weisman in 08!!

2007-08-26 11:20:38
20.   Telemachos
Well, the lineup's on Grady, but to some degree on Ned as well -- they simply have to be on the same page. On the Dodger post-game show several days ago, it was reiterated how tremendously loyal Grady is to his veterans. This is a positive if we have productive veterans, but it's a big negative if there's a better young alternative. So from Ned's perspective, either he's happy with Grady playing a bunch of old vets instead of young talented players (who will make mistakes), or he needs to take those veterans away.
2007-08-26 11:21:21
21.   Bumsrap
I live in Arizona and watch most of the Dodger games on Extra Innings. I hear the radio complaints etc but haven't been experiencing them, until the last few days.

Bishop gets a louder and clearer Dodger radio broadcast better than LA does.

Monday seems to provide a pleasant broadcast and is easy to listen to but I now realize that listening to him was like relaxing with some ballgame being heard in the background. I wasn't sure who was up to bat when something exciting happened. I turned the game off rather than try to find the clearest station in LA and wonder who it was that hit the ball when I mentally tuned into the broadcast.

It seems clear that if McCourt is unhappy with Ned he is going to hide it because the PR people are telling him that he can't make another change so soon.

Bridging the time when the younger players are ready to play full time through October with older vets appears to be a bridge that is crumbling with age.

2007-08-26 11:25:15
22.   Brian Y
Just to reiterate...i would be ecstatic if Jon Weisman got at least his name mentioned for an interview with the Dodgers, though im sure it would never happen, it would be nice to see baseball management realize that us "armchair" GM's aren't exactly retarded when it comes to the game. I think Jon would have trouble making the player contracts though lol.
2007-08-26 11:27:45
23.   Bumsrap
I met an oldtimer who knew Fred Claire and he said Fred never talked about steroids but his wife did all the time.
2007-08-26 11:28:30
24.   Brian Y
23. Why would his wife talk about Steroids? For our players or just in general? lol
2007-08-26 11:30:04
25.   Greg Brock
Beane talks to Blez at Athletics Nation a couple of times a year. I don't see why Ned Colletti wouldn't be willing to do the same thing. Or at least one interview.
2007-08-26 11:31:50
26.   Humma Kavula
In Chicago, old friend (?) J.D. Drew hits his seventh homer of the year.
2007-08-26 11:32:38
27.   Brian Y
25. Probably because not many of us agree with his moves and he would get blasted here. Could you imagine the questions he would be faced to answer at a forum such as ours where Jon picks the questions rather than a mediator at that picks some of the easier ones to answer?
2007-08-26 11:36:07
28.   ucladodger
This is a really interesting topic. The guys at and most rays fans i've come across arent fans of Maddon at all. There's actually a good portion that wants him fired. I've watched my fair share of Rays games because of Edwin, and it seems like Joe doesn't exactly practice what he preaches. He makes some questionable decisions, especially with his bullpen, which has really drawn the ire of the rays fan base.

They obviously took the right approach with Edwin, but i'm not sure Maddon is that great of a managerial choice.

2007-08-26 11:38:11
29.   Greg Brock
27 I don't think submitting questions to be answered is an ambush. Or a sit-down interview. And it's not like the Philosopher King is some amateurish goober. He's written a thing or two in a publication or two.

If having to explain your philosophy and defend decisions is too big a game for Ned Colletti, we're in a lot of trouble.

2007-08-26 11:40:07
30.   Marty
Hey Humma, is the Out Watch dead?
2007-08-26 11:43:52
31.   Jon Weisman
25 - I've never asked.
2007-08-26 11:45:26
32.   Humma Kavula
The OutWatch is not dead. The OutWatch is in hibernation. It's been very, very busy at work (in fact, I'm working now) and at home (readying the place for the arrival of Spawn of Kavula).

Doesn't leave much time for Watching Outs, but I'll try to catch up soon.

2007-08-26 11:52:42
33.   Dark Horse
I actually think Colletti wouldn't be so averse to the prospect of talking here. I think his "candor" would allow him to relish it. I somehow suspect that if such a thing were on the table, it's McCourt who'd oppose it. He seems far more concerned with the upkeep of the image.

I really don't think that Colletti's unteachable. The problem (I suspect with both him and McCourt) is absence of vision, as suggested in the last thread. Y'know..."play the long as they don't actually struggle." The moment they do (or even, the moment management begins to fear they will), it's back to throwing stuff against the wall to see what sticks. It's the extension of this principle that makes me fear what DzzrtRatt suggests above: lessons will be drawn from all this, but alas not the right ones.

I doubt we're ever going to look at Edwin Jackson the way Mets fans do at Scott Kazmir. At the same time, mightn't we have been better off letting him develop than trotting out Bret Tomko in the first place? That's the fortitude current ownership lacks: a willingness to face the roasting they'd take from the hoi polloi for a year or two while developing a truly solid foundation.

2007-08-26 11:53:53
34.   Greg Brock
31 Do you plan on asking in the offseason?
2007-08-26 12:05:42
35.   Jon Weisman
34 - Haven't thought about it. I don't know.
2007-08-26 12:07:03
36.   Louis in SF

The point that is made in your post goes to heart of the problem that the Dodgers have had this year. When it was clear that both Tomko and Hendy were struggling early on has starters, it was only a matter of time when some of the other problems the Dodgers had were going to come home to roost. If you bring up Hull for a longer time or even bring Meleon up, by giving them a shot for a longer time at the Major League level, I think we might have been better off.
Ned like his mentor Sabean do not believe in allowing youngsters to play through some errors at the major league level!

2007-08-26 12:17:53
37.   Telemachos
ESPN takes on the Dodgers and their plight:

"I think they're a .500 club," a National League scout said. "They made their run when the young guys came up, but the kids have kind of plateaued and the old guys are near the end of their careers. They'll have to get by on starting pitching, and the starting pitching isn't that good."

2007-08-26 12:25:37
38.   GoBears
If Colletti were able to learn from his mistakes, how the heck can you explain the Betemit for Proctor or Shea Hillenbrand decisions? The first should have been nixed by learning from Baez and Carter (don't give up value for middle relief), leaving aside Colletti's obvious undervaluation of Betemit.

And Pierre (no power, no patience, nothing but singles and mediocre defense) should have ruled out giving any playing time to the likes of Hillenbrand.

He is not a mystery anymore. He's a old-school guy with antiquated ideas of what constitutes good performance, and he has scoffed publicly at the idea of learning about new metrics.

That he hasn't traded away the crown jewels is only, I think because every "school" sees how good those guys are. Scouting and stats agree.

2007-08-26 12:26:53
39.   Linkmeister
32 When is Spawn of Kavula due to arrive?

And I'm sorry if this offends; I don't mean it to, but that particular phrase (SofK) is straight out of bad space opera. ;)

2007-08-26 12:35:08
40.   trainwreck
Geren gets it too.

I remember when I was saying I still rather have Edwin than Hendrickson and Tomko earlier in the year when he was doing badly and most people basically thought I was crazy.

2007-08-26 12:39:24
41.   D4P
I remember when I was saying I still rather have Edwin than Hendrickson and Tomko earlier in the year when he was doing badly and most people basically thought I was crazy

I don't remember most people thinking you were crazy. I thought the general consensus around here was that 23-year olds who throw 99 MPH don't grow on trees, and that he was hardly washed up.

2007-08-26 12:40:36
42.   Eric Enders
I sometimes find myself wondering if Grady Little might "get it" were he to be unchained from the nincompoop in the front office. He was, after all, the first managerial choice of the SABR regime in Boston.
2007-08-26 12:40:48
43.   still bevens
38 Hillenbrand was only a reaction LaRoche going down. If Andy stayed healthy, he'd be playing every day, but unfortunately that didn't pan out. Who would you prefer playing third? Ramon Martinez? Olmedo? Marshall McDougall?
2007-08-26 12:42:37
44.   trainwreck
Not earlier, most had said he was never going to make it and those who thought he would were leaving in past dreams.
2007-08-26 12:43:04
45.   trainwreck
2007-08-26 12:43:09
46.   Eric Enders
I didn't like the Jackson trade then and I still don't. However, it's worth noting that had we kept him, being out of options, he likely would have spent the first two-thirds of the year stinking up the major league bullpen to the tune of a 7.00 ERA.
2007-08-26 12:43:10
47.   Dodgers49
Triple-A call-up ended 13-year wait for Lindsey

>> The 6-foot-2-inch, 230-pounder is batting .337 with 19 homers and 75 RBIs in 68 games with Las Vegas, and the soft-spoken slugger is on the Dodgers' radar.

"He's got a chance," Los Angeles general manager Ned Colletti said. "He's obviously bucking the odds at this stage, at 30 years old, but he's probably got a better chance today than he's ever had in his whole career. <<

## 51s third baseman Andy LaRoche was activated from the disabled list, and catcher Octavio Martinez was placed on the DL. ##

2007-08-26 12:43:30
48.   LAT
After the Tracey/Depo fiasco Frank isn't going to fire Ned anytime soon. What Frank should do is Ned in place and look past him to Kim Ng. (Now this assumes Kim was not on board with all Ned's veteran purchases). This way Frank saves face, Ned saves face and hopefully the team improves. After a year or two, Ned will resign and Kim can take over.
2007-08-26 12:44:17
49.   Eric Enders
43 We are about to find out how much truth that comment holds. Now that LaRoche is back playing again, how long until he is starting in LA over Hillenbrand?
2007-08-26 12:46:26
50.   underdog
So, whither my question in 4 ?

47 It's hard not to root a little for Lindsey.

43 Absolutely true. Of course, most of us would add the, "But if they hadn't traded Betemit..." clause to that thought. But it's true. I actually miss Nomar at this point. And LaRoche, I guess we'll see him in a week if he doesn't hurt himself.

I feel like one of the problems for the Dodgers this year is they've either learned things too late (Brett Tomko) or not at all (Hernandez, etc). And losing basically half their main starting pitching rotation for the year didn't help.

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2007-08-26 12:47:38
51.   Brian Y
49. that date would be Sept 2nd when he starts over Shea and then platoons with him and Nomar the rest of the year even if we are out of the playoff race.
2007-08-26 12:48:03
52.   Eric Enders
Yeah, the sad thing is, McCourt has now probably learned his lesson about sacking a GM after only a successful first season and a disastrous second.
2007-08-26 12:48:12
53.   LAT
43. Who would you prefer playing third? Ramon Martinez? Olmedo? Marshall McDougall?

Uh, Betemit

2007-08-26 12:54:34
54.   PlayTwo
Does anyone know whether this an historically old Dodgers team or have the kids offset the 39+ somethings?
2007-08-26 12:57:56
55.   trainwreck
Who on our pitching staff do you think can drink the most?


2007-08-26 12:58:42
56.   Eric Enders
54 Yeah, kids definitely have offset the thirtysomethings so it's not a historically old Dodger team. It is older than average, though. According to Baseball-Reference the oldest Dodger teams of all time were 1926, 1928, 2001, and 2002
2007-08-26 13:00:26
57.   still bevens
53 Oh snap I have been pwned. I try to block that whole trade out of my memory.
2007-08-26 13:00:38
58.   Eric Enders
55 Well, the middle three are famous drinkers. I haven't seen anything that says Broxton drinks a lot-- are you just going by his physique?
2007-08-26 13:04:07
59.   dzzrtRatt
55 If you're talking root beer floats, then definitely Broxton.
2007-08-26 13:04:20
60.   King of the Hobos
I just realized that Florida just picked up Kim. Essentially Arizona is now paying for Kim while Florida is paying a prorated portion of the minimum, and all Florida had to do was let him pitch for another team for 2 weeks. Interesting strategy, if you can call it that.
2007-08-26 13:04:36
61.   still bevens

1. Wells - well documented drinking skills, huge gut can absorb all kinds of booze
2. Lowe - experience matters
3. Beimel - allegedly doesn't drink anymore, but I would give this guy dark horse status. Doesnt seem too big but has that crazy look in his eye
4. Penny - is a big guy but he doesn't look like a huge boozer to me
5. Broxton - seems almost too quiet to be the drinking type

2007-08-26 13:06:21
62.   Sam DC
Acta is very open to modern stats and to making decisions based on what analysis of past outcomes makes sense - eg he has referred tpo runexpectancies to assess when bunting makes sense.

Hanrahan had a 40 pitch second inning w/4 walks. Ouch - only 2 runs b/c Ryan Zimmerman caught a foul falling into the stands.

Austin Kearns just made a tough catch xrashing into the wall and got a standing O from the Rockies fans.

2007-08-26 13:07:20
63.   SoSG Orel
55 Are you talking about alcohol or milk?
2007-08-26 13:08:15
64.   trainwreck
I figured a man that size can put back a few beers.
2007-08-26 13:11:40
65.   Eric Enders
Philip's latest Catfish Stew post is pretty funny. Particularly the Nick Swisher line.
2007-08-26 13:12:50
66.   Sam DC
He's walked dessens twice.
2007-08-26 13:14:30
67.   Eric Enders
I like Sam's Nats updates. What I'm wondering is, do the folks at Capital Punishment get Dodger updates too?
2007-08-26 13:15:46
68.   bigcpa
After fearing a franchise-altering disaster move at the deadline (Blanton, Garland), instead I feel like the gradually boiled frog. Each incremental move could be explained in the moment. Then you look up one day and Loney is losing AB's to Ramon Martinez and Mark Sweeney, and 30% of the active roster is comprised of deadweight.

The list of names that could come back and bite us grows: Kyle Blair, Denker, Betemit, Jackson, Guzman as does the list of names that have no role on the 2008-2009 Dodgers whatsoever: Wells, Hernandez, Hillenbrand, Sweeney, Martinez, Saenz. I'll speak for myself in saying 2005 was easier to stomach than 2007.

2007-08-26 13:15:59
69.   Eric Enders
That probably should have been Capitol with an O.
2007-08-26 13:16:22
70.   Bluebleeder87
Really good stuff Jon thanks for the link.
2007-08-26 13:21:16
71.   Eric Enders
LaRoche is back on the bench today. I hope there's nothing to read into that.
2007-08-26 13:25:09
72.   Eric Enders
A day game in Vegas in August sounds like fun. Luckily for all concerned it's only 96 today.
2007-08-26 13:27:04
73.   LAT
Sam, Not sure if you saw my thank you in yesterdays' thread. The Nats write up was great. I'll be sure to let you know what I find out.
2007-08-26 13:33:21
74.   Bluebleeder87
Little League update, Georgia has tied up Japan 2-2 in the 2nd inning.
2007-08-26 13:34:08
75.   Ricardo
On Rosenthal´s article: "... not to mention the clubhouse frustration with manager Grady Little."
2007-08-26 13:35:19
76.   Eric Enders
Brett Myers got into an amusing confrontation with a reporter today.

"When Myers was asked about the two home runs, he said they were really 'just pop ups.'

A reporter from the Philadelphia Inquirer questioned whether Myers really thought they were pop ups, and Myers got angry.

'You're not even a beat reporter, you're a fill-in, you don't know anything about baseball,' said Myers, who then called the reporter 'retarded.'

The Inquirer reporter asked if Myers could spell retarded, and Myers stood up. Burrell then restrained Myers, and Myers refused to speak any further."

2007-08-26 13:37:46
77.   LAT
Good comeback by the reporter.
2007-08-26 13:43:23
78.   Bluebleeder87

the visual of that whole ordeal gives me the giggles.

2007-08-26 13:46:07
79.   trainwreck
The fact that he does not elaborate on that statement makes me question it.
2007-08-26 13:46:21
80.   Megaballs
If you can, please tell Ned about Value over replacement player as a concept.

Replacement players an bee in AA, AAA or in the scrap heap..if you rely on 29-36 year old guys that you know what they CAN do and are available...they likely have no can you win a world series with replacement players...Tonko, Hend, Hill, Hernandez, Ramon...and tell Grady too!

PS I think even the better middle relievers offer little value over replacement.

2007-08-26 13:51:48
81.   Megaballs
I can spell it...
2007-08-26 13:52:26
82.   LAT
cubs jump out in front 3-0
2007-08-26 13:58:25
83.   Andrew Shimmin
Jayson Werth went 5-5 today, against the Padres. The last Dodger to do that did it against the Padres, too. In a pretty special game.

2007-08-26 13:59:20
84.   Megaballs
Since I have the floor...
Is it ever too early to double switch out the young Loney in the FIFTH inning for the quite average Sweeney, also LH? Are they trying to kill his confidence? Are we trying to "Choi" him?
We've lost Denker now because the switch- hitting Young, hitting .400 or .500, couldn't stay in the bigs thru August...we needed another average old ex-Giant? If we had a roster spot for Sweeney, why not for the hungry, young kid? To just pinch hit!
We haven't called up Meloan for ONE reason...service time...thats why we NEEDED Proctor...needed Hernandez...

This is all so Tracy-like...

now back to your regularly scheduled Dodger Thoughts...

2007-08-26 14:03:39
85.   trainwreck
The Japanese moms are chanting let's get on base.

Even they know what it takes to score in baseball.

2007-08-26 14:05:34
86.   Indiana Jon
Does anyone know the general consensus in Japan? Do they lean more towards SABR or old school?
2007-08-26 14:07:10
87.   Andrew Shimmin
I've decided to get on the Brewer Bandwagon, too. I'm still mostly a D'backs fan, but if the Brewers can take that playoff spot away from the Cubs, that'll be awesome.
2007-08-26 14:21:02
89.   Andrew Shimmin
D'backs up 5-3, now. On Chris Young's second home run of the day. His 28th on the year.
2007-08-26 14:22:17
90.   Gagne55
87 Don't count LaRussa out.
2007-08-26 14:22:28
91.   still bevens
And how many HRs does our CF have? Oh yes, zero.
2007-08-26 14:23:50
92.   Gagne55
89 That's our problem. We need a Chris Young. Worked for the two teams above us.
2007-08-26 14:24:32
93.   D4P
And yet, amazingly, our CF has a higher OBP. By a lot.
2007-08-26 14:25:11
94.   natepurcell

2007-08-26 14:27:06
95.   natepurcell
dbacks CFer just misplayed a ball for a inside the parker.
2007-08-26 14:30:00
96.   Andrew Shimmin
95- I bet it was a scrappy misplay.
2007-08-26 14:34:06
97.   Marty
Pretty good fire going on in the hills above my house. It looks like it's in Los Flores canyon for anyone familiar with the Altadena area. Lots of helicopters flying over the house right now.
2007-08-26 14:34:43
98.   Andrew Shimmin
People who follow football: Is the NFL players union really so weak that they let the teams take back guaranteed bonuses from their members?

2007-08-26 14:40:31
99.   JoeyP
Edwin Jackson's problem with the Dodgers was his drop in velocity after his injury. Once he regained his velocity, it wasnt any secret that he'd become good again. The question of whether he'd ever throw as hard as he did when he came up was a legit issue though.

With all the Ned Colletti talk, maybe it'd be a nice time to revisit the "DePo and Colletti really arent that different" article Jon posted over a year ago.

The jury has returned the verdict.

2007-08-26 14:40:50
100.   still bevens
93 That is amazing. At what point does one's low OBP hurt the team more than 30 HR's help? I assume alot of his HR's come with nobody on base since he leads off, but it might only be 1/3d of those homers. I guess if the rest of your team is league average the HR's don't account for much, but if he stays in AZ it shouldn't be a huge deal.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2007-08-26 14:41:09
101.   trainwreck
Yes. This is the issue with Jamarcus Russell. Russell's agents want to make it impossible for the Raiders to take back bonus money no matter what and that has never happened in NFL history.
2007-08-26 14:43:00
102.   Bluebleeder87
they wanna milk the caveman "fuss" for all it's worth, I just noticed they have a new comedy series, wow.
2007-08-26 14:46:15
103.   trainwreck
I am assuming here, but I expect Young's OBP will rise in the following seasons and eventually that is going to make him a very valuable player.
2007-08-26 14:48:38
104.   JoeyP
Can anyone recall a better rookie year than Ryan Braun?

25 homers in 82 games

On Baseball America's list of top 100 prospects in 2007, Braun was only listed at #26.

Last guy to make an impact this big in his 1st season was Albert Pujols.

2007-08-26 14:49:19
105.   Bluebleeder87

I see your point JoeyP but he also had mechanical & command issues, he was still very very young for the Dodgers to give up on though. When you look back at it NOW it was just a disaster the whey they brought him up, it still kind of erks me.

2007-08-26 14:49:35
106.   stevesaxarm
I'm just not sure I want our manager to be using stats on a regular basis. It's not his job really. The GM should be using a mix of scouting and statistics (with an emphais on VORP,EqA, etc) to evaluate talent on the roster and throughout baseball. The manager on the other hand can't be making quotes about how he uses stats every day. Its just not an effective way to get the best out of players. For every Pat Neshack there are 200 others who don't want to be evaluated on a daily basis by their stats, whether they be traditional stats or sabremetric. Would you want your job to be evaluated on numbers by your direct supervisor? Juan Pierre is just doing what he's always done and hearing about how he doesn't get on base won't help him get on base. A great manager knows just enough about stats to make left/right splits when necessary and plays the guys the GM signed and hopes the plan works. LaRussa, Leyland, Torre, and Scoscia are good managers, depsite being old school or ignorant of useful information. The old school is popular with the players and any good manager in any industry knows making people feel important and valuable is a must to getting good performace. It won't turn water into's the gm's job to buy good grapes. Working a pitching staff, and knowing a tad about stats helps too, but the first is FAR more imprortant for a manager. Say what you want about Grady...he's made some silly moves..but this isn't his problem. He's captaining a poorly planned roster and Joe Maddon or even Jon Weisman would struggle too.
2007-08-26 14:50:01
107.   Indiana Jon
His OPS is .748 which is above Arizona's team OPS of .713, so I would say it doesn;t hurt them at all. Throw in his position, the 30 home runs, and some stolen bases and I would say he doesn't hurt much, especially for a rookie.
2007-08-26 14:50:17
108.   natepurcell
So I'm looking at Andrew Lambo's page and the only weakness I can find is his 239/325/313 line with RISP.
2007-08-26 14:51:54
109.   trainwreck
Essentially you want both that way both are on the same page, which to me seems essential.
2007-08-26 14:52:37
110.   Indiana Jon
104 McGwire was pretty good in his rookie year. The average probably wasn't there, but i think the other stats were probably close to Braun.
2007-08-26 14:52:53
111.   Bluebleeder87
105 fix up

I should have said mechanical issues that lead to command problems.

2007-08-26 14:59:08
112.   Bluebleeder87
some impressive #'s for The Hebrew Hammer
2007-08-26 15:01:59
113.   trainwreck
Is anyone else rooting for Japan in the LLWS?
2007-08-26 15:02:15
114.   Bluebleeder87
I guess Josh Rawitch is on a mini-vacation or maybe really busy cause he ain't as quick as usual with the lineups.
2007-08-26 15:07:34
115.   Indiana Jon
Not me, but there do seem to be some others rooting for them. Mainly the players families it looks like.
2007-08-26 15:21:04
116.   underdog
112 Adam Goldberg plays baseball?

114 Or the poor guy just can't take it anymore.

Speaking of football, I just watched a few minutes of the worst NFL game I've seen in awhile (rerun on the NFL Network). Granted, it's an exhibition game, but the Giants-Jets game is awful in too many ways to count, with a 6-5 score near the end of the half. {click}

2007-08-26 15:21:59
117.   Sam DC
LAT - I did see your note. Have fun Tues.

Eric - Nats folks do get Dodger updates. it's funny, those are more gripridden than my Nats updates here, at least as far as off the field stuff. Though Nats chat is actually not at Cap Pun but is at a sort of chat-only non-blog.

Right now I'm at scenic Pfitzner stadium. The Potomac Nationals are doing a better job with the Mrtyle Beach Pelicans than the DC Nats did with the Rockies.

2007-08-26 15:27:01
118.   Bluebleeder87

maybe I'm a little anxious seeing Boomer sport a Dodger Uni.

ps Georgia hits a dramatic late inning dinger to win!! 3-2 Georgia

2007-08-26 15:31:17
119.   Bluebleeder87
I'm a little surprised the Lubbock, Texas little league team didn't make it all the way, they sure had a potent offense mixed in with great pitching, nice dramatic win though for the Georgia little league team.
2007-08-26 15:55:47
120.   still bevens
Furcal, SS

Pierre, CF

Kemp, RF

Kent, 2B

Ethier, LF

Hillenbrand, 3B

Loney, 1B

Lieberthal, C

Wells, P

2007-08-26 15:57:59
121.   dzzrtRatt
120 Grady Little, putting David Wells in a position to succeed.

That's a very telling lineup. Little manages "must-win" games differently, and plays clubhouse politics otherwise.

Or that's my conjecture anyway.

I hope there is clubhouse dissent against Little. That would show me the young cares care, which I think they do.

2007-08-26 15:58:35
122.   dzzrtRatt
...the young ones care...
2007-08-26 16:02:07
123.   bhsportsguy
Travis Denker was picked in the 21st round of the 2003 Amateur Draft and was completing is 5th year in the Dodger system.

Maybe the Dodgers could have left Denker unprotected this fall and still had him after the Rule V Draft. I would guess that the Giants probably feel they can do that since he is a 22 year old middle infielder who has not advanced beyond High A ball.

But I think the best Denker had to look forward to next year was perhaps Jacksonville, the Giants, lacking in any positional depth, probably will slot him on their AA club next year.

Also, since Preston Mattingly is apparently going to play second, he will probably advance sometime to the Cal league next year. Dewitt still has another year before needing to be added to the 40 man roster.

2007-08-26 16:04:20
124.   PDH5204
28 Put me in the "not so big a fan of Joe Maddon" club. I've watched every single DRays game this year and while Joe isn't the worst manager in the game, he's made his fair share of rather questionable decisions. My favorite is from early on in the season [as it set the trend to come], but there the DRays were looking to pick up a win with a 4 run lead there in the 9th and Joe never sends in Reyes. His reason? Reyes had already thrown in the last two games, and so if he pitches in the game in question, he'd have pitched in three in a row and thus be unavailable to pitch the next night against the Yankees. My thoughts at the time were, (1) you have a game that you are winning now and that may not be the case tomorrow, (2) Reyes doesn't need to start the 9th, but once the bullpen starts giving away that 4 run lead, Reyes might indeed be the one to truly save the win, and (3) where is it otherwise written on tablets of stone that we can't pitch Reyes 4 days in a row? As it turns out, the DRays gave up that 4 run lead in the 9th and lost, but then beat the Yankees the next night, with Reyes coming in to relieve in a non-save situation [another 4 run lead thing].

Joe is otherwise a lot like Grady with respect to his lineups and so everybody has batted just about everywhere in the lineup. To take just the one example, Carlos Pena has hit in every position in the lineup but leadoff. Iwamura is otherwise not a leadoff hitter. And if you're otherwise going to bat Crawford 2nd, you might as well have him hit leadoff as it's hard for him to steal 2nd when that base is occupied by Iwamura. His batting order should be:


2007-08-26 16:05:36
125.   bhsportsguy
121 I always wonder what clubhouse dissent means anyway. Greg Brock and I were talking the other day and I was guessing that the "dissent" was coming from Dave Stewart aka Matt Kemp's agent, who has been outspoken on this subject partly because he wants Matt to play. Other than that, the kids, sure they want to play but my guess is that they also don't want to go back to Vegas, so I doubt seriously they are the ones to talking behind Grady's back.
2007-08-26 16:06:56
126.   underdog
New post up top, btw, for the game, even though it doesn't show up yet for some reason above. (Look on the sidebar, for now.)
2007-08-26 16:08:32
127.   underdog
121 I'm not sure what you meant, Ratt? Do you approve or disapprove of the lineup? Aren't they all basically must win games at this point? (Not disagreeing, just clarifying...)
2007-08-26 16:24:27
128.   dzzrtRatt
I very much approve of the lineup.

This shows that, at heart, Little knows what lineup give him the best chance to win.

But to placate some of the older players and their agents, he doesn't always use it.

2007-08-26 16:38:13
129.   underdog
128 Ah, gotcha. I just wasn't clear - but I basically agree!
2007-08-26 16:47:18
130.   El Lay Dave
Isn't Edwin Jackson the (perhaps potentially) cautionary tale regarding service time and running young pitchers up to the majors? I realize that at age 19, Jackson is the extreme example, but I can understand reluctance on the part of Dodger front-office folks to rush their pitchers into the 40- or 25- man rosters earlier than might be prudent. As Eric Enders touches on in 46 , if the Dodgers had kept Jackson, they would have had difficult roster decisions to make. Under a more normal development curve, he'd still have options left, less time on the 40-man roster, and could have finished his learning in AAA, not the majors.
2007-08-26 16:47:23
131.   Gen3Blue
I'm sort of back from a lost week-end(My son got married. After a guick scan I guess we traded Denker to the Giants or he was a player to be named, maybe no such thing. I'll catch up soon.

Anyhow I like the Lineup tonight. Can't remember when I saw Loney, Kemp and Ethier together. Of course it depends on if the Boomer is even in pitching shape. And if he is, will it be different from his recent shape? As Edgar Winter put it "Lord Knows".

2007-08-26 16:52:31
132.   underdog
Repeat: NPUT. NPUT. This is not a drill.
2007-08-26 17:21:05
133.   Gen3Blue
God help me, I swear I have Joe Morgan as one of the announcers!

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