Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Leading off my post at SI.com's Fungoes today, I speculate what a difference it made in the playoff race for the Dodgers when Greg Maddux went from Los Angeles to San Diego. (My father provided the inspiration for this idea.)
There might be all kinds of reasons why the San Diego Padres are 3 ½ games ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the wild-card race, but perhaps this is the simplest: Greg Maddux.* * *At the end of last season, the Dodgers chose not to resign the future Hall of Famer. In his place, they picked up Randy Wolf for $8 million (including $500,000 if they buy out his 2008 option), as well as offering arbitration to Mark Hendrickson instead of cutting him loose and negotiating a $2.925 million one-year deal -- even though there wasn't a spot for Hendrickson in the starting rotation.
The Padres grabbed Maddux, locking him in for $10 million for 2007, plus an option for 2008 that could cost San Diego from $6 million $11 million, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.
Perhaps San Diego will regret the deal in 2008, but as far as '07 is concerned, the Padres got Maddux for less than what the Dodgers spent on Wolf and Hendrickson. And what was the result?
Maddux has already thrown 161 2/3 innings while leading San Diego in games started with 27, with an ERA of 3.90. His Value Over Replacement Player, according to Baseball Prospectus, is 32.0.
Wolf's ERA swelled to 4.73 over 18 starts for the Dodgers before going out of the rotation for good with shoulder problems, and he accumulated a VORP of 11.4. Hendrickson, who began the season in the bullpen, has gone in and out of the rotation, making 15 starts in 30 appearances with an ERA of 5.49 and a VORP of 4.6. In short, the two pitchers combined have so far been barely half as good as one Greg Maddux, and the gap is almost certain to increase over the season's final month. ...
It's time to offer your opinion on the defensive abilities of the Dodgers at Tangotiger's 2007 Scouting Report by the Fans for the Fans.
Key points: A ranking of average should refer not to an average player at his particular position, but an average player at any position. And don't look at any fielding statistics - just rely on what you've observed.
A lot of that depends on Young's health, but the Padres have more than enough offense now with Bradley, Ensberg, added to the rest of their core.
With the Rockies improvement (Holiday, Hawpe, Helton, Tulowitski, Atkins) can all hammer the ball: The Dodgers are going to need to improve themselves in the off-season or 4th place might be in the offing for next year too.
Next up: Jon speculates what a difference it made in the playoff race for the Dodgers when David Wells went from San Diego to Los Angeles.
Here on DT folks have said to me that it has to do with NedCo's ongoing vendetta on Scott Boras. While admirable (on principle), this seems to have gotten in the way of a potentially solid 1/5 of the rotation. Ah well.
Bear in mind though, not signing Maddux may have helped instill Chad Billingsley into the rotation, but I honestly wouldn't know.
The Padres should have just made Wells rest for three weeks instead of cutting him loose. ;)
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I don't know if I'll get around to the defensive survey, but if I do I know I'll be raving about Furcal's arm.
Guess correctly you did.
So yes, like many here on DT, what was the use of getting all these Radio Shack parts in a desperate attempt to nab that spot? To placate the veterans? I think the best thing for the team to do right now is give every game their best shot and not worry about the other teams.
The other issue with Maddux and the Padres is that as good as the Padres' bullpen has been, there are 2 reasons why the Padres are not leading the West, one is their inconsistent offense, the second is that they constantly have to go their pen and that their relievers outside of Bell and Hoffman have been very inconsistent.
Some get tired of Charley Steiner bringing up this stat but lets compare the Padres, D-Backs and Dodgers on their record when they lead after 6 innings.
Dodgers 54-3
D-Backs 52-6
Padres 48-11
To put San Diego's record in perspective, the Royals and the Pirates are 45-8 and 44-8, respectively when they lead after 6 innings.
Agreed. I'm not saying Wolf and Hendrickson have proven a better use of the money, as they clearly haven't. I'm just distinguishing between "Should we spend $10 million on Maddux or on Wolf/Hendrickson" and "Should we resign Maddux for $10 million?"
I think that money would be better spend cloning Kyle Blair nine times and then signing all 10 Kyle Blairs. That would give the Dodgers some amazing minor league pitching depth, as well as unparalleled depth in Kyle Blairs.
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Let's kick it up a notch. Would we have been better off with Maddux and Drew vs Pierre and Wolf/Hendu
San Diego needs to take 3 out of 4 against the D-Backs because winning the division gives them their best chance to advance, so they will need to play as many game as possible at Petco.
Playing at Petco is a problem for San Diego because while they pitch much better at home (see Young and Maddux), their offense, which isn't great to begin with, really suffers at home.
Yes but we had to use some of that money to make sure the Giants didn't get Juan Pierre. Oh wait I forgot I'm on the positive vibes for Juan Pierre train. ummmm....Juan Pierre has an .379 OBP in August! Go Pierre!
THe Padres home/away records are nearly identical also.
I wasn't on this in March, either, probably because I wouldn't have wanted to give Maddux two years. I think that's the argument against signing him. I think in a straight-up comparison with Randy Wolf, if it were one-year contracts, I would have wanted Maddux. I did argue from the get-go that Hendrickson should have been non-tendered.
Also, while Drew has a higher OPS than Pierre(though at .756, its the lowest of his career), he trails Ethier, Kemp and Gonzalez.
PETCO and the Padres defense are keeping Maddux's numbers reasonable. If you put that many balls in play for the Dodgers, things would look much worse.
If the Dodgers do not feel he is worth 10 million with our payroll, then SD spending that much on him with their limited financial considerations can only be looked at as a win for us. The only real question is did the Dodgers undervalue Maddux or more aptly, did we waste the "Maddux" money on non-impact players.
Considering how the off season turned out, I might say this would have been a good idea, but it's debatable.
Doubtful.
A better thing idea have been to spend the 10mils on someone better than all 3.
The only thing Maddux can do is throw strikes. Without the park and defense behind him, he's nothing.
I was glad Colletti didn't offer him a two-year deal and I still am, even though he's pitched better than I thought he would. I do think we should have offered him arbitration. Although, wasn't that a timing issue? -- i.e., by the time Maddux decided whether to accept or reject arb, the fallback options like Wolf might have already been scooped up by other teams.
The owners and the players by having labor peace and high revenues may have created a market that actually results in players staying with their teams rather than test the market. Sure you will see the A-Rods and Andruw Jones go out to see what is available but you are also going to be left with some pretty mediorce players getting lots of one-year deals.
Player development will be key as well as the Rule V draft. I think as teams realize that the days of getting the big free agent becomes a less likely avenue to improve your team, it is more likely they will go for one-year deals and looking more internal than external for improving and maintaining their ball clubs.
Oh well... I point most of my ire at what was going on during the season with the positional players, but that horse has been kicked around a few times.
vr, Xei
The word "terrible" seems extreme to me. It's not as if the injury problems of Guo and Wolf came out of nowhere. Plus, Schmidt is not primavera poultry.
I'm quite happy that they are the team we are chasing, not that I'm sold on our team but SD is a team we can chase down.
Semantics. :)
vr, Xei
Why did that make me hungry?
I am now seeing this season as one where we are both too old, and too young to win. But then again, I think in two years we may have a great young team that will make us a top team for years to come.
Playoff Odds Report (which are actually playoff probabilities, but who's counting...)
Mets: 97%
Diamondbacks: 71%
Padres: 59%
Brewers: 26%
Dodgers: 23%
Aug 28th
Partial eclipse begins @ 1:51am
Total eclipse begins @ 2:52am
Total eclipse ends @ 4:23am
Partial eclipse end @ 5:24am
A little 7 game winning streak would do wonders to those numbers.
If the latter, what do we do about the names on the jerseys? Roman numerals?
Yes, he has a very low K rate. He also has, by far, the lowest walk rate in the league among qualified pitchers.
Hardballtimes.com has him at 1.2 walks per game. The next best qualified NL pitchers are at 2.1 walks per game.
Maddux is allowing a 0.294 batting average on balls in play. This is pretty average, isn't it? Penny is allowing a 0.289 BABIP, in comparison. I find it hard to believe that in front of the Dodger defense Maddux would be that much worse. If the Padre defense was saving Maddux all the time wouldn't his BABIP be lower?
Maddux's FIP, according to hardballtimes.com, is 3.53. That number relies only on his walk, K, and home run rates, of course. His excellent home run rate is surely helped by Petco park --- though to be sure he's allowed 4 home runs on the road, 7 at home. Strange, eh?
Maddux does have better K and walk rates at Petco, but I'm not sure I can buy into the argument that his good year is a creation of Petco and good defense. I think it's more a creation of excellent walk and home run rates, with a bit of Petco thrown in.
I will say I don't have a problem with the Dodgers not wanting to sign him for two years.
It's true. They can change quite dramatically even from day to day. Course, the current numbers presumably account for the likelihood of little 7 game winning streaks...
The problem with those numbers is they underestimate the Diamondbacks. I've spent all year underestimating that team, and I won't do it anymore. The Snakes have a horrible third order winning percentage, which is what BP uses. As well they should, usually. But the Snakes are better than theirs. They just are. Ooh, I hate them and their bizarre alchemy. So they really have a better than 71% chance of making the playoffs.
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Now, about this ten Kyle Blairs thing:
1) When you draft a player, you also get the rights to his clones, to the Dodgers need to use only one pick to get all 10 Blairs.
2) Cloned players have to wear the same number, but they are different versions. So say Blair was number 80. Then the real Blair is number 80.0. He's the prototype. The clones are then 80.1, 80.2, up to 80.9. See, this is why you have to stop at 9 clones. Because 80.10 would just look dumb.
3) Of course, the Dodgers failed to sign even one Kyle Blair, so he and his clones are off to college, where I'm sure they will be involved in lots of mistaken identity hijinks. It will be like the Parent Trap crossed with Animal House ... the Animal Trap, or something.
that's what it comes down to, great point Jon.
I can't believe Donald Fehr let this one get past him.
But all this was right around when the "he-wants-to-be-a-Dodger" formulation was taking hold in Colletti's brain. Hence Wolf.
Ken Gurnick at MLB.com:
"This specific management team has been in place less than two years, and that's too soon to judge, especially when the team made the playoffs in the first year and is still alive in the second. This management team is trying to overcome the mistakes of those past errors and are saddled with some problems that aren't its fault."
I think this snippet eats itself alive.
Um, yeah.
Bob? Bob?
Gonzalez
Hillenbrand
Kent
Lieberthal
Martinez
Saenz
Sweeney
Hernandez
Seanez
Wells
Wolf
Unfortunately, that list is heavy in PVL, so Colletti might not be able to resist hanging out to more than a few of them.
Odalis Perez
Drew opting out (not really)
Drafting Justin Orenduff instead of someone else?
Ummmm.....
Really, thanks to massive roster turnover this is almost entirely Ned's team.
I'll run out and buy my World Series tickets right away.
Well, at least he'll be good at holding on runners.
Juan Pierre
Nomar Garciaparra
"I don't know everything he has in his belly, but he has a lot of competitive spirit in there."
68 The Gurnick comment on Colletti is almost Rumsfeld-like. Didn't he coin the term "catastrophic success?"
Okay, of those potential castaways, I'd be surprised if they didn't resign at least a couple of them. Here's what I'd want:
Gonzalez - I'm probably in the minority here but I could see resigning Gonzo IF (and only IF) he was fine with being/the Dodgers promise that he'll be a fourth outfielder. Depth to the bench, he can be a good pinch hitter and role player. On the other hand, I'd be happy if they just gave Delwyn Young the chance.
Hillenbrand - gone
Kent - see 79
Lieberthal - fine bringing him back as the backup if he is fine with only playing 5-10% of the time. Don't see a lot of good options for the Dodgers in the minors
Martinez - can replace with Abreu/Young/whoever
Saenz - good bless him, but time to hang 'em up Tomato
Sweeney - gone (though he is a solid pinch hitter)
Hernandez - for the love of God, gone
Seanez - gone
Wells - gone
Wolf - ?
Russell Martin
Andre Ethier
Matt Kemp
Brad Penny
Derek Lowe
James Loney
Andy LaRoche
Tony Abreu
Chad Billingsley
Jonathan Broxton
Takashi Saito
There, I feel better now.
Proven Veteran Leadership, of course.
I tend to agree with you about Kent, but he did leave some room for doubt at the end of his interview on "In My Own Words". Sadly, I am left thinking Kent is better than having Nomar around for another year...oh yea, we didn't dodge that one either. I am still amazed Gonzo turned down 2 years.
Kent (vested option)
Wolfe
Sweeney
Lieberthal
Human beings, no matter how much money they already have, do not turn down twelve million guaranteed dollars. Ever.
I expect Ned will take steps to make sure that continues next season.
When do Hawaii rosters get announced? Last year we sent Wright, Hammes, Jansen, Paul, and DeWitt over there. The Dodgers must think pretty highly of Wright to be sending him to a prospect league two years in a row. I guess he might turn out to be a good LOOGY but I don't see much more than that.
I was thinking they might send Mattingly to the AFL, to try and get him back on track in a league that's a hitter's paradise.
I think there's some truth to the idea that Maddux has a better defense behind him in SD. Up the middle Furcal was hurt, Kent looks more statuesque every day (and I like Kent), and Pierre's as sad an excuse for a CF that I've ever seen (even with his "good" qualities). Add to that Defensive questions at first (Nomar was not that great) and at third (Betemit's occasional stone hands) and you negate some of the benefit of Maddux.
My fantasy is Piazza as the backup/pinch hitter. It'll never happen, but a guy can dream.
Kind of harsh, but Purpura did have no idea how to build an offense. He also didn't realize that this year probably should have been a sell year rather than a sign Carlos Lee year.
And Wright has been having himself a nice season at Jacksonville after getting bombed in Vegas. He seems to be fairly effective against righties and Canuck likes him (as does White evidently), so I have some faith in him as a legitimate reliever.
http://tinyurl.com/yraj8l
I love Bagwell and Biggio, but they are the reason the Astros are noncompetitive now and for the next couple of years.
I picked Houston to win the central. What happened to that pitching staff?
Darn those girl troubles...
111 I don't see any difference at all between Lieberthal and Piazza defensively. Am I alone in this? Just watching Lieberthal try to catch this year has been so painful I feel sorry for the guy. Stuff like last night, where he cost Broxton two called strikes in a row when he dropped two consecutive fastballs right down the middle.
I think Sweeney could stick around too. We like a PVL off the bench in the late innings. If we sign Gonzo again, this makes it more unlikely. But without Gonzo, I don't see us taking a rookie like Delwyn and putting him into late inning pressure situations off the bench.
We sweep Washington. We actually should and could. We are in the position where we gain a game on ARZ or SD each night if we simply win our game. That will change a lot of the naysayers into believers. I think SD is going to bring AZ down to earth and tighten the west up. We can go along for the ride if we can take care of business at home!
We go into SD and take at least two out of three with a sweep making us headliners on ESPN each night. We haven't had a six game winning streak in a long time, now would be the ideal time have one in August and turn this whole thing around. This is a crucial week for a lot of teams, but it will make us players or pretenders.
I personally believe we are up to it. I kind of have to believe it. I am a grown man with two beautiful children and a full life, but somehow my team winning is an essential part of my happiness and I don't think I can change that. Go Blue. Please?
That is a far cry from the 2005 team that featured LaRoche, Loney, Kemp, Abreu, and Ethier from Oakland.
I agree. Wells was lucky he didn't give up more runs.
Lieberthal's Gold Glove came before his catastrophic injury and the subsequent disintegration of his throwing arm. Calling him a Gold Glove catcher is like calling Shawn Green a Gold Glove outfielder. It's technically true, but he just doesn't have what it takes anymore.
Guaranteed Prediction: David Wells doesn't beat out any more bunts in his career.
44 year old pitchers who go 5 innings, give up two runs, embarrass the offense with a bunt single, and collect a win are okay with me.
Jason Philips raises his hand. I think he's still trying to get vested.
The Tampa Bay Devil Rays are on their way to another 5th place finish and right now handily lead the race for the first draft pick in the 2008 draft.
The Rays have only finished above last place once in ten years and while they have a ways before approaching the record of failing to finish with an above .500 record from start of your franchise (the Mariners did not finish with an above .500 record until their 14th season), I begin to wonder if they would not benefit from any kind of league restructure that could get them away from the Yankees and the Red Sox, not only playing almost a quarter of your games against them seem unfair, they will never come close to outspending them and those two teams have no problem using their revenues to buy free agents and draft picks.
Despite their impressive young talent, it would seem almost impossible for them to put it all together to compete in AL East.
Next year they will win 10 games more then they ever have, and they will do the same thing in 2009.
They don't need pity just good management and they finally have it.
He is the guy who was traded for Danny Richar.
Anyway, if you want them emailed I'd ask for $4.50 through paypal to cover all the fees or you can send me a check for $4.00.
Tickets are in top deck, sect 3, behind home plate. It is easy to hop on the elevator and go down to the reserve section on a weeknight.
Post if you want the tickets. I'm going to the game tomorrow. BTW, I'm 5-0 this season.
Don't Jinx it!!!
Bob, when was the last time..? Aw man, he's on vacation.
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