contraction?

Very refreshing article, Jon. I feel like maybe the recent expansion hurt a lot of the pitching depth across the board. I'm glad the Dodgers are not alone.

The SI.com link just seems to point right back to here.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jon_weisman/08/30/pitching/index.html

3 - Did you click on it? It's the link to the chart.

Sunny days for Bradley in San Diego

>> "Milton brings a different look," the Padres' general manager, Kevin Towers, told San Diego Union columnist Nick Canepa. "He plays hard. He can ignite a club just how he plays. He has awakened the club. Since he's been here, our lineup has been completely different. He fits in well here. I like his intensity. I like a guy who gets angry."

http://www.presstelegram.com/sports/ci_6765843

I wonder what Jeff Kent thinks of this. :-)

Eric, if it's not too late, I nominate 'ol stubblebeard, Burleigh Grimes.

I'm trying to think of the last great pitcher the Dodger's traded for or signed as a FA. Just seems like they have bad luck.

7 Brad Penny? Derek Lowe? Kevin Brown?

I don't buy the expansion argument. Shouldn't it also have hurt offensive depth?

I think the change is due to advances in/attitudes towards training, medicine, and pharmecueticals (legal and non). This has helped pitchers too, as guys throw harder than they used to, but these advances won't necessarily give you more bite on your curveball, and so on.

5 It's broken for me, too, Jon. Just points to this page. Maybe just one bit of HTML needs to be tweaked?

---

Man, I'm excited and nervous about the weekend series.

Sorry - my bad. I misunderstood. It's fixed.

6 Bradley's the one I'd be worried about, especially tonight, given he's 11-for-23 (.478) with three doubles and a homer all-time against Wells, and has been hot, and it's his former team. I'd guess there's some animosity there.

7 Define "great". Maddux, Saito?

12 Why don't we put in Roberto Hernandez to bean Bradley, so they can get into a tussle and get tossed? There, problem solved.

it's real hard to be optimistic about beating the padres head-to-head, especially given the three game hole we're in. as much as i like arizona, i think our best chance for making the postseason is for them to run out of gas and we pass them for the wild card. of course, philly's recent streak makes them scary, and their schedule is looking favorable down the stretch. and if we're counting on the mets to fold we're in worse shape than we think.

so i guess what i'm hoping is for arizona to collapse, and for us to marginally outperform philly, which will probaby mean putting up a pretty solid final month. with 29 to play, we just might have to 20-9 (or close to it) to stay alive.

who's for a one-game wild-card playoff with the phils?

If you like fishing, there are some nice pictures of Brad Penny fishing with some city kids at Dodgers.com

16 Neat story. And there are so many one-liners to be had from those pictures, I'm not even going to try.

17

I'll try one:

Where Brad Penny will be in October

That was very cool, though, having that fishing trip. Great for the kids.

That does not look like Brad Penny on the website photo of the fishing trip.

Yeah, Maddux fits the bill. I was thinking Penny and before. I just never liked Brown, but he was quite clearly a good deal. Lowe, too. Just using a faulty selective memory.

My move starts today. 4 days without Extra Innings when we play SD will be hard. Here's hoping I get to listen to a game via MLB.com

12 It's Well's former team too but he has so many of them and I don't think there is any animosity on his part towards them. Too bad.

I hope Penny had one of the deckhands bait his hook for him. While usually I disapprove of such angling assistance, a man should bait his own hook, I'll make an exception in his case. The last thing we need is for our ace to put a hook through his thumb.

Come to think of it letting Brad fish at all isn't really a bright idea. Consider, fishing is the most dangerous occupation in the world. The chances of getting cut, barbed or scrapped up are pretty good not to mention the chance of slipping on the wet deck and wiping out. Having done all of these stupid things many times I speak from experience.

23
Norman Maclean and I just fly fish. Much can be learned between the hours of 10 and 2.

Remind me not to go fishing with LAT. The man is clearly a menace.

{15.} Well, according to Sports Club Stats http://tinyurl.com/39fm4p and SFW, the Dodgers need to go 19-10 the rest of the season to have a 94.6% or better chance at the playoffs.

Also, for making the playoffs, we are Dodger, Rockies, and Marlins fans today.

Has anyone heard whether there's been any interest in Tomko?

(I hope Ned remembers that HE was the guy that released Tomko otherwise he will be tempted to pick him up again. Hernandez, Wells, Loiza, Tomko. Anyone see a pattern here?)

Nice article, Jon. It's never a bad thing for fans of a team to get a little perspective. Times are tough all over.

I hope Ned remembers that HE was the guy that released Tomko otherwise he will be tempted to pick him up again.

Awesome! Yeah, because Tomko is still a former Giant, right?

25. I have a group of guys that go fishing regularly and we all have nicknames. Mine is "Larry Dangerous". I am the Kurt Rambis of fishing. I have cleared a few decks while landing my fish. I don't lose too many but my technique leaves a lot to be desired.

because Tomko is still a former Giant, right?

With great stuff and a history of winning. Plus, aren't we already paying him anyway...? Might as well get something out of it...

30 Good Lord...Are you fishing for Killer Whales or something?

27 The pattern also includes Maddux, Saito, Schmidt and Wolf. On the other hand it also includes Hendrickson, Dessens, Baez and Carter. Wow, there have been a lot of pitchers added. There was Seo, Hamulack, Proctor. Who have I forgotten?

30 Way back in the day, my friends and I would rent out skiffs out of Kings Harbor and fish for bonito, mackeral, the occasional sand bass and rare barracuda, to make it more fun, we would use freshwater tackle, nothing like battling a bonito on 4lb test line.

The only thing we had to battle was the seals that hung out by the bait barge, many a time we would see the silvery image of our fish followed by a larger black image, sometimes we would get the fish onboard but most of the time, it would lost to the seal.

Pretty cool - Twins relief pitcher Pat Neshek praises blogger Aaron Gleeman:

http://www.aarongleeman.com/2007_08_26_baseballblog_archive.html

I did one of those city-kids-go-fishing storys for the Daily News way back when. I had to get up at 4 a.m. to do it, but it was rewarding.

It's going to be either a Roberto DFA or Stults option today. I'm hoping for the former, since it will also clear another 40-man spot.

It's the most dangerous job in the world. And LAT does it for fun.

He also kilt him a bar when he was only three.

36 - storys should be stories

35
That may be the coolest quote I've ever seen from a ballplayer related to the media. Aaron's head must have puffed out a little after that.

37
No way Ned DFA's Roberto after hanging on to him all month.

I hope Lindsey gets the call tomorrow. I'm a sucker for career minor leaguers getting a break. Don't want to see them in my lineup but I like to see them at least get a taste of why they worked so hard. As a bonus, Plaschke will get a story.

1 , 9 ... Nah... The union would never allow contraction, and overall MLB revenue would probably not expand.

Instead, just raise the mound. Great pitchers will look fantastic, and mediocre pitchers will get you through more games...

Of course, offense would be down, and hence, so would revenues, and so... it won't happen until the fan-base starts demanding more 2-1 games.

35 That is wonderful. And, I think, a sign of things to come.

I'll start a petition...

32. Mostly tuna out of San Diego or Mexico. They get up to 100 lbs sometimes. (My largest is 90lbs and it took me nearly 3 hours to land. I could not straighten my fingers for at least a day.) Somtimes we go Salmon fishing in British Columbia. While it is the most beautiful place on Earth, salmon fishing is not as exciting and a lot more expensive.

38. The most deadliest for commercial fisherman. As in the Deadliest Catch. I love that show.

45 I got a blister playing Rapala Tournament fishing on the Wii, so I totally know where you are coming from.

42
A return to 1968-style baseball would be a disaster economically.

Maybe not aesthetically, but people won't be all that interested in 2-1 games. Casual fan friends of mine hate going to games like that.

Even though they're faster to play!

Casual baseball fans are as fickle as the "Itchy and Scratchy" focus group.

46
Money for nothin' and your chicks for free.

Jon - scrolling further down the Aaron Gleeman page, he discusses Alyssa Milano's clothing line and links to a picture of himself wearing a shirt at I dont know where. If you look carefully in the background there is a woman wearing a Dodger Thoughts shirt.

http://www.aarongleeman.com/uploaded_images/sabrraindelay5-760124.JPG

49
That Mr and Mrs. shotupthemiddle!

Although I don't know if they've officially tied the knot.

That picture was taken in St. Louis.

Bob, obviously he's exaggerating, re 42 . Raising the mound is not going to bring the whole game back to 1968. It'll just reduce the odds of a 30-3 game and so on.

49 I own one of those gray shirts in the foreground. It gets some weird looks.

Also, the guy on the left in that picture spilled beer all over his pants. (I hope.)

50

Is there anything about anything you dont know?

53

Looks like a messy group of people in general. I see multiple people with stains.

54
They rode down in the elevator with me at the hotel to the game!

54 Silly. Bob has already admitted not knowing whether they've officially tied the knot. Everything else, he knows.

53
I'm pretty sure all the moisture on the clothing is sweat. I learned about that after moving to NC.

53
The game was delayed by two hellacious thundestorms. Everybody had interesting looking stains.

I see multiple people with stains

Again: sweat.

And I really don't know everything. I just pieced together much of my knowledge from the back of sugar packets.

Amazingly, though he is a brilliant man, librarian, and keeper of knowledge, Bob does not know the Dewey Decimal System.

60
Sweat and rain.

If you had seen a picture of me at that game, I would have resembled a cat after being caught out in the rain.

62
Hey I run a high quality 796.231-themed blog.

63 Just don't leave the cake out in the rain.

But someone did.

As a kid, I only knew one number in the Dewey Decimal system, 796.357.

65
I kept the recipe.

Oh great, Bob beat me to the 796 crack. And now I fear I have gotten the number wrong.

49. Nice pick up! I looked at the picture and didn't even see that.

Steve Trachsel is off the table, traded to the Cubs for right-handed pitcher (and delightfuly named) Rocky Cherry and infielder Scott Moore.

68
My library uses a real old edition of Dewey.

Your DDC may vary.

Starting last year, the Duke University Library System began the transition from Dewey Decimal to Library of Congress.

72
I'm surprised it took that long.

Last night someone mentioned the fact that Chris Young waited until his start just prior to the All Star break to drop his appeal thereby minimizing its affect on the San Diego pitching staff. But I find the David Wells situation more intriguing. Appeals are normally handled in New York where MLB's headquarters is located. But Wells joined the Dodgers on a weekend when the offices were closed and then immediately flew back to California. The Dodgers don't return to New York again during the regular season. Under normal circumstances this situation could carry over to the beginning of next season. So the question before the house is simply this:

What if David Wells refuses to drop his appeal for the rest of the season and then, during the coming off season, announces his retirement?

Wouldn't that trump Chris Young? :-)

73
Yeah, that was my implicit point. Hard to believe they're just now getting around to it.

74 I think I tried to raise that point in the last thread. The jury was unimpressed.

796.357 is the current DDC for baseball.

But LAPL uses a version from the 1940s. It gives us "character."

We get funky call numbers like:
338.2P4 A658Vi

940.5412 Rf1303Pa

74 - the problem, I think, is that Wells does not strike me as the type that plans on retiring. He is going to be one of those guys that will be playing in the independent leagues at 55 saying that he can still help a team.

Still, holding the line on the appeal is likely the best thing for the club, at least until the rosters expand. 5 games, he really only misses one start (which is something I've never understood about suspending starting pitchers).

51
The odds of a 30-3 game happening again has gone down since the Orioles gave Paul Shuey his walking papers.

78 He is quoted in either the Times or the Press-Enterprise this morning (can't remember which; I read both) as saying "they'll have to tear the uniform off my back."

But one of the things that makes David Wells David Wells is that he says whatever's on his mind in the moment, without considering its implications. Tomorrow he could say exactly the opposite.

70 That certainly makes me appreciate the Loaiza deal a little more. Scott Moore and Rocky Cherry are something along the lines of Delwyn Young and Eric Hull, who I would never deal for a month of a mediocre pitcher. Especially if he was named Steve Trachsel.

Now I must really root for the Brewers. To see Trachsel in the playoffs would be enough to numb even the sturdiest baseball heart.

The good news is that he's so lousy now that he's not a good bet to last 6 innings so we wouldn't have to endure a 4 hour game consisting of him standing on the mound afraid to throw his stinkin pitches.

70 - rocky cherry is BY FAR my favorite flavor of ice cream, even if it does tend to chip one's teeth.

82 Along those lines, isn't the good news also that the Dodgers will likely face him next week?

It's called Rocky Cherry because they leave the pits in. So at least Bob now has someone to to take Russ Ortiz's place when Ortiz retires.

84 It's also bad news in that I'll actually have to watch it.

81 And that deal is particularly surprising coming from the team needing the least help, as Jon's article pointed out.

And Trachsel does indeed suck, but I can't rake too hard on a fellow Dirtbag. A little slack for that, maybe?

I like cherries.

If I may interrupt the trashing of Trachsel for a moment. He has a career ERA+ of 101 and an ERA+ of 99 this year. Doesn't that make him the deffinition of average?

I was browsing this book today at lunch: It's a must-read, or at least must-browse, for all the Little Lebowski Urban Acheivers on DT:

http://tinyurl.com/2f54c8

90 I have nothing derogatory to say about the quality of his pitching. It's just that his presence pretty much guarantees a ballgame can't be enjoyed. Watching him pitch is like sticking a fork in your eye.

90 Yes. However, Chicago's current, pre-Trachsel's rotation has ERA+s of 116 (Lilly), 111 (Zambrano), 112 (Marshall), 106 (Marquis), and 123 (Hill). So while he's average, he's the worst starter of the 6 pitchers, rather easily. Plus he has a 69/45 BB/K ratio, which is incredibly awful.

Hiker gored by Catalina bison

>> The man says he made eye contact with one in the herd near Little Harbor. Then it started charging him. <<

http://www.dailybreeze.com/news/articles/9491257.html

Anyone on Dodgers Thoughts could have warned him. You just don't make eye contact with a charging Bison. :-)

You just don't make eye contact with a charging Bison

Especially a Mattalina Bison...

Dodgers have the #1 and #6 (Saito, Broxton) ranked NL relief pitchers in WPA (Win Probability Added) thus far. Saito is head and shoulders above the rest of the field.
vr, Xei

Those two one-run saves recently probably helped Saito a lot in that regard.

Almost old friend Bill Murphy might make it up to the Diamondbacks this Sept.
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/0830dbnotes0831.html

85 Well if they took the pits out, it wouldn't be 'Rocky' now would it?
With apologies to Monty Python.

24. Norman Maclean and I just fly fish

Is that like flying a kite on the beach at Lincoln City, Oregon?

Bison are indeed dangerous. I've gotten a little too close to one on Antelope Island (a long way from the Antelope Valley) and lived, but I much prefer seeing them from the safety of my car in Yellowstone.

You just don't make eye contact with a charging Bison

But you can if you want to

Oh you can't go skating in a buffalo herd, you can't go skating in a buffalo herd,

but you can if you want to

Bob likes cherries. Cherries have pits. Bob's previous assertion about not liking fruits with pits has been invalidated twice. I think it's safe to say he exaggerated. I never would have expected that of Bob.

Of course you can make eye contact with a charging Bison. I saw Kevin Costner do it in the only good non baseball movie he ever made.

Ya can't roller skate in a buffalo herd
Ya can't roller skate in a buffalo herd
Ya can't roller skate in a buffalo herd
But you can be happy if you've a mind to

Ya can't take a shower in a parakeet cage
Ya can't take a shower in a parakeet cage
Ya can't take a shower in a parakeet cage
But you can be a Loaiza fan if you've a mind to

All ya gotta do is put your mind to it
Knuckle down, buckle down, do it, do it, do it

Well, ya can't go a-swimmin' in a baseball pool
Ya can't go swimmin' in a baseball pool
Ya can't go swimmin' in a baseball pool
But you can be a Dodger fan if you've a mind to

Ya can't change film with a kid on your back
Ya can't change film with a kid on your back
Ya can't change film with a kid on your back
But you can be Pierre fan if you've a mind to

Ya can't drive around with a tiger in your car
Ya can't drive around with a tiger in your car
Ya can't drive around with a tiger in your car
But you can be happy if you've a mind to

All ya gotta do is put your mind to it
Knuckle down, buckle down do it, do it, do it

Well, ya can't roller skate in a buffalo herd
Ya can't roller skate in a buffalo herd
Ya can't roller skate in a buffalo herd
But you can be happy if you've a mind to

Ya can't go fishin' in a watermelon patch
Ya can't go fishin' in a watermelon patch
Ya can't go fishin' in a watermelon patch
But you can be happy if you've a mind to

Roger Miller (mostly)

103 Daniel beat me to it. Bob is a fruit hypocrite!

Too bad I missed fishing thoughts. My last deep-sea trip was quite a few years ago. An overnight trip to San Clemente island that resulted in about 5 fish on the boat. My only hookup was a huge bat-ray that took me 45 minutes to horse up to the boat. As soon as the crew saw what it was they cut my line. It was very long boat ride back with nothing to show for it.

Anyone here read Japanese who can tell us what Saito's thinking about these days?
http://sports.yoshimoto.co.jp/t_saito/

What happened to the NPUT? I coulda sworn there was a NPUT!

Ah - turns out that it was an OPUT.

107. Some trips are just that way. A few years ago my brother had what appeared to be about a 60 lbs tuna a few feet from the boat. This was a really nice fish and probably would have won the jackpot for the trip. Out of nowhere a huge blue shark comes up opens his mouth, rolls back its eyes and and bites the fish in half with less effort that we put into eating a piece of cheese. It was awsomely powerful.

One less reason to think Juan Pierre brings something to the table:

http://actasports.com/sows.php

Beep Beep

Another baseball myth thrown to the sharks.

This one surprises.

Some guy on ItD thinks our young players will be FA's this year because they all have one-year contracts.

I always thought that catchers would call for most fast balls when a stolen base was a possibility because they were easier to handle.

What's the difference in time it takes for a 90 mph fastball to reach home as opposed to an 80 mph curve?

Russell Branyan is now a Cardinal.

For those keeping track.

115 By my calculations, ~.05 s.

115

It's not just speed it's location. If the pitcher throws a curve close to the dirt it's going to take longer to get into throwing position. Plus if the pitcher hangs the curve, well the catcher won't have to worry about catching it.

108 I don't even see Japanese script. All I see are a bunch of rectangles. If your getting Japanese script, then put it into babelfish.

119
OK, but you were warned. Babelfish is very (x100) for Japanese:

Last night... with you say, or now morning, returned to ロサンジェルス. When the night game with NY moves, ending arriving to the airport of LA already nighttime, As for going to bed the schedule, 5 of morning o'clock. Cripes a little it is キツイ in the body of the ぢ. Somehow, in connection with TV relay, 3rd game of メッツ was night, it seems, is, but. So it could win the tournament me and, you held down with non mistake and, your own feeling the team Becoming tired, although it enters, you called and also atmosphere, it was feeling. As for forerunner of yesterday, ウェルズ of 44 years old large veteran pitcher. As expected, you call pitching of dignity, or call the intimidating of the veteran or, unique atmosphere Having, it is not perturbed completely even in pinch. Cripes, but the ぢ it is groovy. It is シブイ. The ウェルズ after the transferring listing the first victory star, チームメイト everyone blesses. Of course, the word which I celebrate... with when you think...! You became aware suddenly. Absent-mindedly I the winning ball in the audience seat on the dugout Being to throw, it did.... In NY, with flow of the Brooklyn ドジャース era, It meaning that ドジャースファン is many fairly well, it does. In the place where it returns to the bench exactly Because such a fan entered into the eye, being to lift the ball, it does, but.... To tell the truth ウェルズ is the good collector, so, maniac drivelling level it is rather old The variety you gather from the baseball goods to the ball of your own commemoration, it seems. Although the う わ, ヤバイ, after the ドジャース transferring it was the ball of commemoration of first victory... While with thinking, going to that place, "you question with the め", that while saying, when you apologize the, It is not necessary "to make such a air. All right, all right " With, being speaking simply, ホッ. ウェルズ, it is the truth good person. Today, ナショナルズ game with foam/home, 4? You went to the mound to 9 time charts of 5 and 1 point lead/read. As for the first hitter with three swings 1 out. As for these first three swings, you think that the pitching which almost by your intend perfectly was possible. As for the sphere which takes 3rd strike, being decided with the feeling which is called to the place where out course is good バシッ, As aimed, feeling it was good, is. In next hitter ベリヤード, you struck hit from full count. As for this opposition, being to understand that the partner aims for the slider, the true っ you pushed immediately Being, it does, but count 2? Because long hitting and the four ball it was hateful from 3, waiting Understanding, boldly slider game. It is the feeling that was applied well. Changing feeling, Schneider of 3 public attention. 1st sphere, chute -> ファール. 2nd sphere, the true っ immediately -> ファール. With this 2? It drove 0. 3rd sphere, low chute -> double play & game set. A little, per being to be strong, it does, but as for batted ball the infielder front. With first racketeer 併 shooting murdering 3 out, holding down 1 inning to non mistake, it could list 35 saving eyes. Course and being conscious of "low" properly, you think that you could pitch "Takashi style". * After the playing, knocking down coolly, icing doing, when it returns to the rocker... It is? Or it is what, original view is different... The little スカスカ impression having drifted... that? How, the Japanese reporter always collecting materials me is not, today the one person.... So, if you said, today the form was not happened to see at all from before the playing.... Everyone, the line っ ちゃ っ it is it probably is somewhere? Me, no oak it is high? ? (Laughing) Of course, being not to be the meaning which does the baseball just because it becomes the article, it does, but usually in the vicinity The っ て where the person who is suddenly stops being, it is what it isn't lonesome? As for only the reporter who has taken charge of especially ドジャース with the atmosphere which is approachable, collection of data Also the manner original て being good, always feeling having being able to point to story well, in just the る, after all Just a little it is lonesome.... Today somewhat was Takashi taciturn Saito. Because so, there is the encouragement where only the fan of the foam/home is warm in me, it is all right! As for the rocker being lonesome, (laughing), the inside of the stadium can be wrapped in large cheer, is not lonesome. Persevering, shout being and inserting, throwing, winning, uplift the west area dispute, ドジャー The reporter it does not try to the stadium, as for the て! Takashi Saito or team everyone, still you have not abandoned. Even from tomorrow, one at a time "1 tournament complete combustion". Furthermore hot support, we ask may!

112 Yeah, but I have read an article before saying that a stolen base threat being on base increases helps the hitter by about .050 points of OPS. I'll cite it when I find it.

120
So it's like reading Jack Kerouac isn't it?

121 I've seen a lot of varying results in for that topic, but nothing near as high as .050.

121
The help to the hitter doesn't necessarily have to come from more fastballs per se.

Eric, my favorite baseball name is still Heathcliff Slocumb.

Growing up in Chicago as a Cubs fan, I was also partial to Larry Biittner due to the spelling of his name. I loved the two i's and two t's in a row.

I also enjoyed the name Carmen Fanzone. He once played the national anthem on his trumpet.

Do they measure the speed as it leaves the pitchers hand or as it crosses the plate?

Assuming a constant speed I calculate .055 seconds.

It's not just that a hitter will see more fastballs with a stolen base threat on, it's when he's likely to see the fastball. Just as there are hitter's and pitcher's counts, there are counts where a runner is more likely to steal. I'll also point out that the use of a pitch out increases a pitcher's pitch count (it could be a strike), while also increasing the likelihood of a walk (a pitch out is a ball). There is also something to be said for the location of said fastballs - you likely aren't going to see one in on the hands, as that would put the catcher in a more difficult throwing position (having to step around the hitter), instead, you'd see more fastballs over the plate or outside.

Another question to consider is how many pitches are there per at bat in these situations? If hitters are seeing more fastballs in the first, say three pitches of an at bat, then it is more likely that he will be making contact and thus, not having as many pitches thrown. Whereas, without the speed threat, a pitcher can work inside as well as throw different pitches in different locations.

120 "Cripes, but the ぢ it is groovy."

I think I have a new personal motto. Substitute "ぢ" for the rule 1 violation of your choice.

126 "Do they measure the speed as it leaves the pitchers hand or as it crosses the plate?"

They take several speed readings during the ball's flight and then average them. The reason different brand guns give different speeds is because they take different numbers of readings.

Why MLB Pitchers Don't Throw Fastballs with Juan Pierre on Base

by Paranoid Android (South Carolina version)

I personally believe that US American pitchers are unable to do so because some people out there in our nation don't have fastballs and I believe that our pitching like such as in Japan and Domincan Republic everywhere like such as and I believe that they should our ballplayers over here in the US should help the US or should help Japan and should help Domincan Republic and the Asian countries so we will be able to build up our future for our baserunners.

Bill James -
The stolen base, it is argued, puts pressure on the pitcher, breaks up the infield, and takes the double play out of order. While all of these benefits are real, it is my belief that in general, in the normal case, the hidden benefits of the stolen base are canceled out (sometimes more than canceled out) by hidden costs of the running game. The running game can create a balk, and it can create an error on the pitcher; it can also lead to a runner being picked off first base without being charged with a caught stealing, a hidden cost which doesn't show up in the box score. The running game can distract the pitcher; it can also distract the hitter. Hitters who take pitches to allow the runner to steal often find themselves behind in the count, and for that reason the aggregate batting average of all hitters following a stolen base attempt is awful. The stolen base attempt can break up the infield and allow a hit to get through, but if the runner just stays on first base he'll add 30 points to the batting average of a left-handed hitter by forcing the first baseman to stay close to the bag. If you steal second you give those 30 points back. In general, it's a wash; the negatives and positives balance out.

120. That's funny stuff. In case the non-Japanese readers can't decipher the Babel Babble, the gist of the first 2 paragraphs is:

35th Save!

1. He's noting how late they got into LA after the 3rd game of the Mets series. Blames it on TV, which made it a night game, and said it's pretty tough (kitsui) on an old guy. But, they won, so he and the team feel good.

2. Talks about Wells joining the team. The word used is "dai-beteran" which means not "large veteran," (though that would be funny) but something like "true veteran," or "super-veteran" (how would we say that?) The anecdote is that, on his way into the dugout after the last out, he saw a Dodger fan in the stands (he explains that there are a lot of such folk in NY, because of the team's Brooklyn roots), and instinctively gave him the ball. When he remembered that Wells is a big collector, he went over to apologize to Boomer for not giving HIM the ball (to mark his first win as a Dodger), but Wells told him, "it's OK, it's OK...don't worry about it." Wells is really a nice guy.

I'll stop there.

Babelfish apparently doesn't try to translate the script that Japanese uses for foreign words, so here's a quick glossary to help you read Bob's post:

ロサンジェルス - Los Angeles
ドジャース - Dodgers
ドジャースファン - Dodgers fan
ウェルズ - Wells
チームメイト - teammate
ベリヤード - Belliard
ナショナルズ - Nationals
ファール - foul

"Turocy's analysis focuses on the situations where the offense has a base runner on first only, in which cases a majority of stolen base attempts occur. When the most talented base stealers are on base in this situation, the batter at the plate can see an increase of 10 to 15 percent in overall hitting performance, he notes."

http://www.ascribe.org/cgi-bin/spew4th.pl?ascribeid=20030407.070200

132. Great job GoBears. Thanks. vr, Xei

120 I will use any opportunity to post this:

Mr. James: "The original title of this book was 'Jimmy James, Capitalist Lion Tamer' but I see now that it's... 'Jimmy James, Macho Business Donkey Wrestler'... you know what it is... I had the book translated in to Japanese then back in again into English. Macho Business Donkey Wrestler... well there you go... it's got kind of a ring to it don't it? Anyway, I wanted to read from chapter three... which is the story of my first rise to financial prominence... I had a small house of brokerage on Wall Street... many days no business come to my hut... my hut... but Jimmy has fear? A thousand times no. I never doubted myself for a minute for I knew that my monkey strong bowels were girded with strength like the loins of a dragon ribboned with fat and the opulence of buffalo... dung. ...Glorious sunset of my heart was fading. Soon the super karate monkey death car would park in my space. But Jimmy has fancy plans... and pants to match. The monkey clown horrible karate round and yummy like cute small baby chick would beat the donkey."

132
That really wasn't my post as much as it was my "cut and paste"

When the most talented base stealers are on base in this situation, the batter at the plate can see an increase of 10 to 15 percent in overall hitting performance

"can see" makes 10-15 percent sound more like an upper bound than an average.

136
Can we call it your "cut and post"...?

136. Right. Sorry. Didn't mean to condemn the messenger.

137. and I think most of that advantage applies to left handed hitters who generally pull the ball more. The first baseman holding the runner on base opens up the hole a little bit more. Bill James points out that once the stolen base has occurred there is a big dropoff in performance because the hitter has usually taken or swung through a strike or two to allow for the SB attempt.
vr, Xei

Here's an actual study:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/base-stealer-intangibles-part-1/

"Using RC27 as a measure of overall batting performance, batters in the S1B situation outhit the other guys (themselves, actually, in generic situations) 6.2 to 5.7 runs per game. So, do we credit those extra runs to the Stealers themselves, who are creating the disturbance over at first base? Not so fast, Sparky, we still haven't taken into account the altered defensive alignment when there is a runner on first. We'll have a look at that next time."

135 - Great memory. That was so funny.

135, 142-What in the world is that? It's fantastic, whatever it is...

143. From News Radio. What a great show that was.

Cyril Morong has a nice study about stolen bases, their value, lack of value and the distraction factor. SFW-geocities page.
http://tinyurl.com/yy394m
vr, Xei

141 "So, do we credit those extra runs to the Stealers themselves, who are creating the disturbance over at first base? Not so fast, Sparky, we still haven't taken into account the altered defensive alignment when there is a runner on first."

This seems nonsensical to me. The only reason the defense is aligned weirdly is because the guy reached base to begin with. Why shouldn't he receive the credit for that?

I'm getting way ahead of myself here, but what if Loaiza gets moved ahead of Billinsgley in the playoff rotation?

I am not going to be worried about this, because it would mean:

1) The Dodgers made the playoffs
2) Loaiza will have pitched (reasonably) well

Also,
3) It ain't gonna happen.

147 I relish the opportunity to respond that dilemma this October.

Perhaps Roberto will be our set-up man by then and the WS MVP will be Shea?

Don't get ahead of yourself fella, we got a month of work to do. Or they do. Do they have any idea how hard this is on us?

Saito, by the way, is quickly becoming my favorite Dodger closer ever. He's just as good as Gagne and just as fun to watch pitch. I will be sad when he's gone.

147 If the Dodgers make the playoffs, I'd imagine both would be in the rotation. Unless Wells catches on fire in September.

Arthur Carlson vs. Jimmy James, JJ No question who is the guy you want running your radio station.

Bailey vs. Lisa, I love Bailey, but gotta go with Lisa, don't need to say too much more about that.

Les Nessman vs. Bill McNeal, Bill, not close by a longshot.

Andy vs. Dave, Dave had a funnier role, Andy was more of a secondary character aka the not crazy guy.

Theme song - again no contest since WKRP's is a classic and by the time News Radio came along they stopped producing good theme songs.

151 "Unless Wells catches on fire in September."

That is probably more likely to happen literally. After all, Burning Man is this weekend.

This seems nonsensical to me. The only reason the defense is aligned weirdly is because the guy reached base to begin with. Why shouldn't he receive the credit for that?

Well, he should receive credit as a hitter for that, but as a baserunner only insofar as he is fast enough (i.e, not David Wells) to be held on. But if the whole point of the study is to ask whether he should try to steal second, then it's worth pointing out that, whether he succeeds or not, the batter will face a smaller infield gap on the next pitch.

If it's true that a left-handed batter's BA goes up significantly when a first baseman holds a runner on first, the defensive team would probably be better off not holding runners on first with left-handed batters up.

146. He gets credit for reaching base, but once he is on base how much of the lift to the current batters average has to deal with his speed or that speed being a distraction to the pitcher. The defensive alignment is going to change whether it be a speedy or slow runner, they are still going to hold him on... perhaps not quite as closely, but still holding him on nonetheless. So with a left pull hitter up, the hole is there, whether it be a speedy runner or a slow runner. Some of the lift to the hitter doesn't come from the distraction on first, but from the change of defensive alignment. How much?? vr, Xei

150. Me too. I have confidence that Broxton will be right up there with Gagne and Saito as one of the great Dodger closers too.
vr, Xei

Off topic:
Anybody gonna try to watch the meteor shower tonight? It's the Aurigids, as opposed to the Perseids (which happens yearly or something). From what I gather, it seems to be super rare. It's possible nothing will happen, but it seems just as likely something highly unusual could, too. I'm hoping to be able to find a spot and have a look-see, and maybe grab some pictures.

156 Yes. What I'm saying is, it doesn't matter whether the change in performance is due to the runner's speed, or the fact that the defense changes because there is a runner on base, since the runner was responsible for both of these things. Distinguishing between the two seems pointless, since both should be to his credit.

155 - But what's the difference in run-expectancy if the runner is simply "allowed" to move up to 2nd by not holding him on.

152 - But Venus, Jennifer, and Herb all win their respective categories for WKRP.

The GCL Dodger lost the rubber match of their playoff series 8-1, which pretty much ends our best hopes for a minor league championship. Time to see if Jacksonville has a 5 game sweep in them, down 4 games going against the first place team to end the season.

159 But don't all but the most plodding runners get held on? Why should speed guys get credit for that when its happens to everyone?

159. I wouldn't say it's pointless. It would be nice to know how much of it is based on the runners speed and how much of it is based on the defensive alignment. Sure, runner gets credit for the lift to the batters performance (if there is one). By knowing how much is weighted to the runners speed vs defensive alignment, you are able to debunk or support theories about how important speed on the basepaths are. It's always important to have as much information as possible. The hard part may be applying and analyzing it correctly and in a way that helps quantify something of importance.
vr, Xei

162 So basically what we're saying here is that it's just another data point in favor of hitters who get on base a lot -- which means it's another data point to the detriment of Juan Pierre? I can go along with that.

So what are the odds we see Kemp in the lineup tonight against a RHP? Something like 5:2 against?

I have 5 tickets in the lower reserve level
on the first base side (shade) for Sunday the 16th versus the D-backs. We will now be at Disneyland that weekend as we had to cancel this weekend due to the heat.

Anybody want the tickets? I'd part with them for 6 bucks per ticket.

I also have my season seats in the top deck for that whole series Fri-Sun, I'd part with them for $4 a ticket.

If interested just post.

165 I think we see Kemp tonight and Sunday with Gonzo going against Peavy tomorrow.

I was just at my local Vons and got a compliment on my Dodger Thoughts T-shirt.

Only two current Dodgers have faced Cassell this year. For what it's worth -- not much:

Kemp: 1-2, double, walk
Loney: 2-7, both singles

168 Pretend that other "l" isn't there.

153 >>151 "Unless Wells catches on fire in September." That is probably more likely to happen literally. After all, Burning Man is this weekend. <<

Yeah except an arsonist set fire to David Wells prematurely this year.

Furcal, SS

Pierre, CF

Kemp, RF

Kent, 2B

Ethier, LF

Martin, C

Loney, 1B

Hillenbrand, 3B

Wells, P

167

I've gotten a few compliments wearing my white Dodger Thoughts shirt, when I wear my blue DT shirt people just stair at it I guess they try & make out what the shirt says or something.

167 - Meaning, they knew what DT was and were complimenting you for supporting it, or they just liked the cut of your jib?

I used to get some odd looks when I wore my Ghame Over shirt to the gym. I guess a picture of a black guy with that caption, and really no other context, could be interpreted in a number of ways.

MLB respects the Joba rules

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/08/31/bc.bba.yankees.chamberlain.ap/index.html

Like I mentioned over at ItD, not playing Gonzalez for these very important games is a pretty good indicator that upper management isn't planing on resining Luis Gonzalez, at least that's what one hopes.

174 But he was a blue guy. Or at least, he was on the shirt.

177 - A blue guy that beared a striking resemblance to Bubba from Forrest Gump though.

175 That's a non-suspension. Every time Chamberlain pitches multiple innings in a game, Torre is required to rest him for two days anyway.

I don't suppose anyone cares that much, and neither do I, but the MLB suspension and appeal system is one of the bigger jokes around, particularly as it relates to pitchers.

Hope no one drafted Byron Leftwich in their fantasy leagues.

130
Hilarious!

So, I turned to my wife this morning and said, "let's do something fun tonight. What would you like to do?" Her response, "Isn't Wells pitching against the Padres? Let's watch the game."

I don't know how it happened, but I am not complaining.

Rotoworld had an interesting point - if he was really throwing at him, isn't 2 games a weak suspension? And if he wasn't throwing at him, what exactly was he suspended for then?

181 Enjoy the Sandra Bullock movie tomorrow.

183

Are you kidding? I got her to watch "Shooter" this week. I'm on a role

179 - That's my point. And I agree.

When I see Kemp, Martin, Either, and Loney in the lineup I get a kind of wierd good feeling about how things will only improve.
There is a delicate 2-3 year period where it may be akward(sp?) for the players assc. to get their share out of LA, but I'm sure they will find a way.

When I see Kemp, Martin, Either, and Loney in the lineup I get a kind of wierd good feeling about how things will only improve.
There is a delicate 2-3 year period where it may be akward(sp?) for the players assc. to get their share out of LA, but I'm sure they will find a way.

183 Maybe you can watch this Sandra Bullock movie about a bus that had to SPEED around the city, keeping its SPEED over 50 miles per hour. If its SPEED dropped below that, it would explode! I think the movie was called, "The Bus That Couldn't Slow Down."

I love our 3,4,5,6,7 guys and if Furcal is on, we are going to have some fun tonight.

188

I love when they are driving the bus through all these cars and other obstacles on the street, and she is still able to keep it over 50 without losing control. Man, they don't make movies like they used to.

I am editing an article right now in which Jon Papelbon is quoted, and he used the word "pronate" in a sentence -- correctly, no less. Who knew they had such education at Mississippi State?

188

Why does that line sound so familiar?

192 Simpsons quote.

Joba Chamberlain has now pitched 11 1/3 innings without allowing a run. Those of you old enough to remember 1980, was there this much national publicity when September callup Fernando Valenzuela started his career with 17 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings of middle relief?

192 It's from the Simpsons. Homer's talking about the movie to Lenny and Carl. Then he plugs a video of the 3 of them working (in the 70's, wearing disco clothes) into the camera in a continuous loop, so they could sneak out of work early.

190 I remember in my physics class we calculated that the bus would have to be going something like 800 miles an hour to make that jump.

194
But Valenzuela gave up two unearned runs in his major league debut.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL198009150.shtml

Valenzuela was not as big of a deal in 1980 as Chamberlain is now because for the most part, the AL and NL West divisions at that time didn't exist in the consciousness of the national media.

Who had time for places like Houston or Oakland?

there are special joba rules? other pitchers don't have these, do they?

120 i like the phrase "takashi style". can anyone translate the last half of that, where saito's talking about his pitching?

191 is it really that shocking to hear a pitcher use a term that is commonly used by pitching mechanics gurus?

196
Also in the movie, Keanu Reaves notices the University of Arizona logo on Sandra Bullock's shorts and says, "Good football team!"

That's a pretty narrow window of time when you're talking about Arizona football.

184 bluebleeder?

194, 197 - You guys just completely ripped off the lead of my upcoming post.

200 Are you referring to narrow window as "few seconds during a bus ride" or narrow window as "Arizona football was only good for like 1 year"

203
The latter.

Because we have shown an appreciation all season for PVL here is what I was really expecting from Grady this weekend:

Fri - LuGo/Kemp
Sat - LuGo/ Ethier
Sun - Kemp/Either (with LuGo getting the day game after a night game off)

I'm very happy to see that I was wrong.

Anyway, a window on a moving vehicle needs only be wide enough to throw the briefcase full of cash out of it.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2999854

AP: "The return of Cole Hamels to the Philadelphia Phillies' rotation has been postponed at least a week."

Hamels won't throw for six days, and it might be two weeks before he rejoins the rotation, he said Friday.

"I'd like to make the sure the discomfort I feel is at a minimum," Hamels said. "If I didn't do anything for a month, I'd be healed, but we've got to play. It's something that's never going to fully heal until the offseason. So it's just a matter of trying to go out there."

202
You can delete Eric and my posts and we can pretend it never ever happened.

1980 was my one season out of California. I was in New Jersey, working in a newsroom where I was the only Dodger fan. Judging from that, I think Valenzuela was getting a ton of national attention, because the whole newsroom was talking about him, and about the Dodgers' charge for the division title.

207 Doesn't seem to be bothering the Phils any.

Kershaw isn't helping the Suns' playoff hope much, giving up 3 unearned runs in the first inning. He allowed a single, then threw a wild pitch. The next batter dropped a sac bunt which Kershaw couldn't field for an error, then after 2 Ks, gave up a 3 run homer.

New post up top.

Hi all. I came across this interview with Kim Ng that I found interesting, from earlier in the year.
http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid538640711/bclid537018740/bctid537084352