This is a span of 24 games.

I probably have too much time on my hands.

Same thing with Arizona, they're assuming that the DBacks will at least tie for the division crown, since they didn't have any wild card scenarios either.

In 3 team ties, the teams are seeded 1-2-3 based on head-to-head record. The top team gets a bye while the other two play off. The winner of the first game hosts the #1 team the next day.

Tiebreakers go:
1) Head-to-head
2) Intradivision (even if in different divisions)
3) Intraleague
4) Record of over last 81 games not counting games played between the teams tied.

It's unlikely ever to get to number 4 or beyond it.

More to the point, I'm happy that the Dodgers' only have one potential long trip for a road playoff (to Milwaukee).

And the chances of an NL central team being the wild card is about zero, since for that to happen two of those teams would have to climb over the wild card leader.

The only time you get an automatic bye is in a situation like the Dodgers and Padres last year.

This one goes out to D4P for being such a swell guy!

According to them, there is a 0.43% chance that the wild card winner comes from the Central.

LA beats AZ (yay!)
LA beats SD (woo hoo!)

LA gets the division, I assume. Would AZ and SD then play for the WC?

Whoops, scratch that. I get it.

Whoops, scratch that. I get it.

And yet they did allow for the extraordinarily remote possibility that the Brewers and Cubs will tie for the Wild Card? Is that even mathematically possible? It would require both teams to go on big hot streaks in September, while also allowing the Cardinals to pass them. And it would also require four teams out of these six -- Mets, Phillies, Padres, Dodgers, DBacks, Rockies -- to have bad Septembers.

Thanks for the list, I'm glad Saitos been used only a minimal # of times (it also helps that he has SICK CONTROL) those #'s should mean something during the stretch run.

Definition for today: An old-timer is a person who remembers when Chavez Ravine was intended as a municipal housing project.

That ran in the Times on Sept. 6th, 1957.

Do you feel old now?

# Speaking of catchers, one of the biggest questions at the start of the season was who was the best of the great young catching crop. Joe Mauer was coming off a batting title, with Brian McCann and Russell Martin not far behind him. With two of those, injuries and workload become the defining variable. Mauer's leg problems have started up the talk of moving him to third base or DH, but I'm more worried about Martin's workload. Even when injured, as Martin is after being diagnosed with a sprained knee, the Dodgers keep loading up Martin. At some point we're going to figure out either that Martin is a freak of nature, or that he couldn't hold up under this workload; I'm not sure I like that binary outcome. Only the knowledge that Stan Conte is watching all the Dodgers' players gives me any reason for optimism.

nice quote picked by GoBears, I sincerely hope Russell Martin doesn't get over worked under Grady Little, it should be interesting to see how Grady & the Dodger trainers deal with Russell Martin in '08 & beyond.

The Giants and Marlins are the closest to oblivion in that department.

Only Baltimore and Tampa Bay cannot win their own divisions in the AL.

Quick trivia question: What is the name the other sitcom with Bob Newhart, after "The Bob Newhart Show" and "Newhart"?

A similar process occurred for Bill Cosby's sitcoms.

First there was "The Bill Cosby Show"
Then there was "The Cosby Show"
Then there was "Cosby"

soon there will be "Show"

Oops, sorry ScreenJam talk. Back to baseball... I dunno, anytime Will Carroll writes anything about the Dodgers these days I just feel like ignoring it, even if he makes a valid point.

I guess "Co" could be the next one.

White was officially interviewed, so I doubt he will turn down the position if offered. More interviews scheduled for next Tuesday and Thursday, so we won't know what happens for awhile.

Houston has 3 real assets: Berkman, Oswalt, and Pence. Other than that, it looks pretty dismal. Add to that the fact that Drayton McLane apparently interferes quite a bit in baseball operations, and I'm not sure that's an ideal situation.

As one of the top 3 hot "non-GM's" out there, he doesn't need to jump at the first job offer.

"I certainly think this club can be competitive. They have a good core with a front-line pitcher in [Roy] Oswalt, plus [Lance] Berkman and a young guy like [Hunter] Pence coming up. There are a lot of positives. They want to go in the direction to continue to bring homegrown players like they have in the past." -Logan White

Wasn't that the situation he signed on for with the Dodgers? And it's worked out pretty well for him, I'd say.

I think a bigger obstacle for White is that nobody can hope to compete with a candidate named Muzzy. Nobody.

Furcal, SS
Pierre, CF
Kemp, RF
Kent, 2B
Nomar, 3B
Martin, C
Loney, 1B
Ethier, LF
Billingsley, P

In "Bob", Cynthia Stevenson played Newhart's daughter.

50 It was nice while it lasted I guess. And it's good to see that Ethier bats 8th while someone that can barely run bats 5th.

This is why, Nomar getting activated was a bad thing.

If LaRoche gets moved this off-season, heed this warning: Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

Please cease and desist the use of that aphorism unless you pay us royalties.

You can use PayPal.

It's $50.

"Littlefield's failure to protect some top prospects and keep marginal ones led the Pirates to lose five of the top six picks in the 2005 winter-meeting draft, resulting in audible laughter in the New Orleans hotel meeting room."

Anyone know anything about this incident?

I'm guessing that Nomar doesn't last more than 5 innings, 3 PA. LaRoche will come in. Abreu may come in later (8th or so) for Kent. I wonder how long a leash Furcal has if he keeps getting out - they don't seem too taken with Hu but maybe he'll come in late too.

ps Hopefully La Roche busts a Loney next year.

I was not smart enough to write that myself.

We're in a tough spot, really. Do we want the Dodgers to do well enough the next couple of years for Colletti to keep his job? Or would we rather Ned's abundant incompetence shine through so that instead of leaving us, White becomes our G.M.?

It's becoming very clear, I think, that three years from now we will still have only one of White, Ng, and Colletti. I have no idea who I'd prefer, but I can't imagine either of the other two being worse than Ned.

If you send me the money, I'll take care of it.

Let's see, so that would be George Santayana, c/o Bob Timmerman at the LA Library...

It's a combination of Nomar and the fact that White is out of here. I hate everyone in management except Ng and White, and, like Eric points out in 69 , rooting for this team to do well is rooting for Colletti to keep his job.

Yep. And on some level, rooting for this team to do well is rooting for Colletti and his philosophy over Depo and his philisophy.

I just doubt that LA missing the playoffs will empower Ned to trust the kids more next year.

Or lack thereof. He reminds me of certain other leaders who don't really know a lot themselves and really on advice and "gut"/"common sense" to get by.

? I guess comparing me to the most famous terrorist ever is funny...

Who do I owe for that line?

A leadoff hitter who plays every game gets about 10% of the team's PAs. That's a lot.

Kemp would not be an outstanding leadoff hitter. Neither would Willie Mays, unless he had changed his approach early in his career.

Right now it looks like LaRoche would be fine in the leadoff spot. Loney or Martin as well.

Barry Bonds would have been the greatest leadoff hitter of all time, but that would have meant sacrificing a lot of his RBIs. It's all about Run Element Ratio.

Juan Pierre is the Dodgers' number 8 hitter. I mean right now. It dosen't matter where he goes on the lineup card. Most studies have shown that lineup effects are insignificant. The fact that JP hits in the 2 slot becomes much worse when you got someone like Hillenbrand in the game. Then you got two number 8 guys, neither one justified by their defense, and that's a huge handicap for an offense to overcome, especially if it's also HR-challenged.

The problem with Colletti is not that he can't be successful. Of course he can; some of his moves have turned out very well. Still, it's much harder to get good results if you don't know what you're doing. For example, if you really think Pierre is a top-of-the-order MLB hitter. You got to be lucky.

My objection is that, even when they're lucky, it's just not much fun to cheer for the dumb guys. I suspect that's one reason DT is so high on the young players. It's a way to root for logic and reason. Please, Frank, hang on to Logan White.

Another thing, while I'm on it, why can't Ethier play center? Imagine how much better his numbers would look compared with CFs rather than corner outfielders. I know he's slow, but so is Nick Swisher. I mean why not let him prove he can't do it before you give up on it. Of course that might mean JP has to sit a game or two. Maybe the world would end.

Nevermind.

I think this is very astute, and describes how I've felt the past two seasons.

He has five girlfriends, so he can get away with it.

Also, unless Pittsburgh and or Houston are really going to invest in the draft, why would he go, neither team has shown a willingness to do that.

And, even if they say they will do that, will they stick with a 3-5 year plan and how would they deal with their current product on the field.

Logan White has shown that as a Scouting Director, he and his scouts have the ability to find a higher than normal percentage of really good players in the draft.

That is but what one component of what a GM does and once he takes the GM job, he has to rely on his scouts and Scouting director to handle the bulk of that job.

He could be a good GM but right now, if he is hired, it is going to be based on how good an interview he gives not because he has scouted and signed some pretty good players.

Mighty bad.

Players, sure. But the rest is just white noise to me.

My biggest fear is the Dodgers become the Oakland Raiders of baseball.

Ok that's a little unfair. The Raiders changed their philosophy somewhat this season. Young coach, younger players, good defense, etc.

Also we are starting to hear terms like JP and Furcal are having "disappointing" seasons. Nomar has'nt lived "up to expectations". I don't think people will jump on Ned for his desperate PVL moves (like Sweeney, Wells of Hilldebrand) but I think he will take heat for his pre-season signings (JP, Nomar extension, LuGo, Tomko).

In sum, if the Dodgers don't make the post season Ned won't pay the price he should but he won't unscathed either.

P.S. What I wish is that someone in the MSM would acknowledge that its not Tomko or Hendy's fault they stink, its Ned's fault for signing them becasue they stink.

False. Both Kemp (this year at least) and Mays have OBPs considerably better than the league average. They would be spectacularly good leadoff hitters, actually. Perhaps what you meant is that they would be more valuable elsewhere in the order than batting leadoff. That I would agree with.

I think rooting for the Dodgers to lose so Ned looks bad is a curious position to take. If they win, doesn't that imply that he's doing something right? Do we really want the peasants to starve in order to stir up a coup against the Czar?

The only desirable prospects Colletti traded were Edwin Jackson, Willy Aybar and Joel Guzman, and all three were both loaded with issues and still are. He has overseen an overhaul of the roster and the lineup, which is now studded with our best prospects. There is no consensus as to whether the remaining prospects yet to be starting are truly ready.

I see a lot of comments like, "OK, that's it, now Colletti has an excuse to trade LaRoche," as if this has been his agenda all along. Where is the evidence for this? I can see hating him for trading LaRoche, but hating him because you believe he will trade LaRoche in the future -- despite zero evidence to support it -- is sort of in the same category as comparing Democrats to terrorists.

I don't like defending Colletti, particularly. He's made some bad moves--Pierre, Proctor for Betemit, Hernandez, Hillenbrand, etc. But he's also made some good ones, precisely the moves about 80 percent of the commenters have advocated. So, LaRoche isn't playing tonight. Big whoop. It wasn't realistic to think that if Nomar could play they were never going to play him again. LaRoche is hitting about .208 at this moment. We're in a pennant race. We shouldn't at least see if Nomar can do better? That's evidence that LaRoche is about to be traded? I don't see it.

on principle alone... ugh

And to venture slightly off topic, Roy Smith stepped down from the Ned/McCourt Dodgers to rejoin the Littlefield/Nutting Pirates? Why?

The string of owners, GMs, and managers that have followed Peter, Tommy and Fred, just made realize that those guys will come and go but the team will always be here.

So why get upset about, if White gets the job, good for him, he will find out that it easier accepting platitudes for young players who have not been tested under the glare of MLB stadium spotlight than for how his team performs day after day with a sour press and tepid fan support.

In fairness, I think Pittsburgh has shown a willingness to invest in the draft, with the exception of this year. It's just that they have shown an extraordinary inability to invest wisely in the draft. This is why I think the Pirates would be the more attractive destination for White.

Capital City?
Temple City?
Carson City?

Interestingly, Ricky batting third wasn't much inferior to Mays batting third, which says something about the importance of OBP.

I guess now I'm gonna have to dig up the study and see if my memory is any good.

Does anyone know how old Logan White is? If he thinks Houston is his last opportunity to become a GM, he might be tempted (if it's even offered). But my sense is, he's got a long career still ahead of him, and he might consider it worth waiting for a better opportunity with a well-funded team; or with the Dodgers, if he thinks Colletti is going to be fired.

To pick up my last comment, McCourt says he wants all his management to be "on the same page." I have to assume this is true. So I have to assume the decision to hold onto LaRoche and other prospects, despite players like Teixiera being dangled in front of us reflects McCourt's philosophy.

The PVLs have all been Band-Aids. A "no-confidence" vote in LaRoche would have been Ned trying to get Troy Glaus. Which he didn't do. Hillenbrand is a journeyman bum, and if Nomar's healthy and/or if LaRoche starts hitting, I doubt we'll see much more of him.

OT- So how hot do you think it will be tomorrow at the Rose Bowl?

That's sort of like saying Jimmie Foxx was a lousy hitter because he wasn't as good as Babe Ruth. I mean, c'mon, he's still Jimmie Freaking Foxx.

http://tinyurl.com/2p69x4

I'll let Kemp lead off if you'll let Ethier play center field.

I think Ned gets too much credit for not trading the prospects.

What kind of moron would have given up Loney, Ethier, Broxton and Kershaw in a trade for Mark Texiera?

Even Plaschke could see that was silly.

I haven't switched on the AC since Wednesday.

I also sit on the shady side.

We love Pat Burrell again! 4-3 Marlins now!

Nothing like some well-reasoned logic to make a point.

112 "Capital City, yay! Fourth Street and 'D'! Yeah! Once you get a whiff of it, you'll never want to roam. "

Nope, didn't see any Dodgers downtown, even in the Westfield mall which is filled with babes.

Okay, maybe restaurant is not the right word.