Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
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Okay, here it is. It's nothing definitive, other than to remind people that the possibility that sacking the manager is a frying pan-into-the-fire situation. But for SI.com, a column I've written on Grady Little:
The easiest thing to do in baseball is to blame the manager. The hardest thing to do is find someone who can do the job better.With the Los Angeles Dodgers tumbling from first place in the National League West on July 29 to fourth place on Thursday morning, despite the highest payroll and arguably the most contributions from the farm system of any team in the division, some Dodgers fans aren't looking for someone to blame. They've already found their man, and folks in the Northeast will probably recognize the name.
If Grady Little hasn't worn out his welcome in Los Angeles yet, he's worn it down. Thanks to the development of sassily talented young players such as James Loney, Matt Kemp, Russell Martin and Chad Billingsley, there's plenty of hope for the Dodgers in 2008. But after a honeymoon in 2006 that saw Los Angeles reach the playoffs, there's also plenty of doubt as to whether Little is the right manager for the job. ...
* * *
Tonight's 12:05 p.m. game:
dons tin foil
It is a catch 22 for some Dodger fans. If the clock is indeed ticking on Ned, would we be better served if 2008 was a replication of 2007 and he gets canned, or we find out that we can win in spite of Ned and we are forced to suffer his reign for many years, where we win just enough to satisfy the McCourts while bemoaning his moves?
From what I understand about Furcal's ankle, the only thing they could have done was just shut him down at some point during the season and since it is believed that he will fully recover during the off-season, a decision was made that an 80% of Furcal was better than 100% of someone in the system.
Ned walked into a great situation and he will get to ride it out.
your article expressed a lot of what has been said here recently. thanks, jon.
But when it comes to outfielders (and 1B), that wasn't the case. He continually flip-flopped between aging mediocrity and impressive young talent.
Keith Law: (1:07 PM ET ) Yes, I believe it did cost them a playoff berth. But you have to split the blame between Little and Ned Colletti. And I'd put more blame on the guy who actually signed Pierre and re-signed Nomar.
I don't see a philosophy with Grady
(enter cliche re: hindsight)
a lesson to be learned from the whole Little-Pedro Martinez incident is that Little defers to the "stars"...not that Gonzo or Nomar or Kent now are at that level, but that is Little's inclination
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/264872.html
2007 .257/.323/.428 .751
Career .262/.334/.420 .754
I am not using to defend Juan Pierre but we all knew what he was and he pretty much performed as we thought he would so you can argue about his value but Gary Matthews Jr., is 3 years older and also has a contract for 4 more years at higher money and a full no-trade through 2009.
Does winning excuse the signing?
So I guess Eric Enders (Stephan?) had it right.
I won't be here for the game chat (appointment) but I'll be wearing my lucky white DT shirt, I really feel we need a victory today, hopefully it will help the MOJO PUSH.
I would say the other side of the Diamond is what excuses it....
Q: Ryan from Los Angeles, CA asks:
I'm very surprised Withrow didn't make the top 20.
A: Chris Kline: Yeah . . . nine innings just isn't going to get it done though. I was disappointed I didn't get to write him up, especially after he sat 92-94 mph with his fastball in the playoffs and lit up 98 several times.
He is quite gifted as a defensive 1st baseman. He's only in the outfield because they wanted to get Orr work at GCL and Ortiz in Odgen.
He could easily surpass both of them and be the next in line for 1st base. He's only 18 so four years away at least.
He has a gun for an arm so what he's lacking is foot speed and experience in the outfield. More experience doesn't mean he'll master the outfield but after only 1/2 a season a judgement on his defensive skills as an outfielder shouldn't be written in stone.
I'd have preferred Matthews this off season, only because he fit more of the Dodgers' needs than Pierre. But not for what either of the guys were signed for.
http://tinyurl.com/2acvfo
I'm bummed Silverio didn't make the cut. He's a year older then Baez but really came on this year.
Dave Littlefield sold Matthews in 2001. I have never seen anyone seriously try to claim this was a bad move.
I watch a lot of Angel games and subjectively he looks much better then a "terrible defensive player". I don't have Dewans book with me but I don't recall him getting that bad a rating.
But after Game 3 of the NLDS last year, I was one of few left in the manager's office when Grady was asked a question about the performance of James Loney (he went 3 for 4) and what that meant for 2007. His answer (though I don't recall the exact words) was something along the lines of "I think someone's going to have to get out of the way so he can play."
I was a bit shocked at the time because it was unusually candid and a sure sign of what he felt the future of first base would be.
Needless to say, Grady's handling of the first base situation, among countless others, has been baffling.
I'm not sure who the real Grady is. Is he the guy that spoke so confidently last October about the immediate future of one of his young studs? Or is he the guy that held back that same stud (and several of his peers) this season?
Did he simply change his mind? Or are his hands tied by his superiors? I don't know.
I do know that was another excellent column, Jon.
And here is the answer
Nick Eustrom from West Hills, CA asks:
Alfredo Silverio hit .373 on the season with a .950 OPS. What's his story, and why didn't he make the list?
A: Chris Kline: Baez and Lambo have more upside despite the numbers. Silverio is an average runner relegated to a corner OF spot, and his bat is going to have to continue to speak as he moves up. Regardless of how well he hit in the GCL, there are questions about his offensive ceiling. He pulls everything and struggles with balls soft away.
.847 (2nd to last)
.850 (2nd to last)
RZR (which gives more credit to rangy outfielders)
.894 (15th out of 21)
.850 (last)
(whew)
They all know me in there as the token Dodger fan, so I've been heaped with abuse lately re: Drew, Lugo, Gagne. My usual response (karmic retribution for Dave Roberts) is starting to wear as thin as the Sawx' shrinking lead in the AL East.
Q: Steve from Chatsworth, ca asks:
Wow! What a year out of Lambo! He must be for real! How is it that he is ranked higher than Mesoraco, Ahrens, Lotzgar all 1st rounders? Has he now shown that the 4th round was a mistake?
A: Chris Kline: It's still early, and Lambo needs to keep it together off the field, but the swing is legit. He's going to hit--he might rack up a lot of fines, maybe a few suspensions as he moves up the ladder, but he'll do it in the middle of the order while driving in a ton of runs. This is a guy who's a little off-center, but that sometimes plays into his advantage. He wants to be out there with the game on the line, he never stops talking, and he wants to win.
Sign me up:)
That seems like a pretty reasonable amount for a rookie even a very good one.
I liked the info about Baez's defense. At this point we can only count on the scouts for defensive information. BA said he was the best defensive 3b in the league, with the best arm.
Are you suggesting that the field manager has no input on the 25-man roster?
Did he ever try Garciaparra in right field?
Not assessing blame. Just wondering how things fit together.
Milton wasn't much for talking.
In the West Valley we've heard plenty about the hijinks that Lambo did, but nothing seemed out of the ordinary for a high strung kid in high school. The pre-game interviews that they talked about are something else entirely but I guess we might be lucky he seemed immature since he dropped to the 4th round. Or we might not be.
Ed Wade? It sort of stretches the limits of credulity that a team which seriously considered somebody like Logan White actually ended up hiring Ed Wade.
But at least we can write off the Astros for the next five years.
But when Loney arrived, he played, and now he is settled in.
Seriously, Wade is a horrible pick, although I suppose that if he learned anything from Towers et al in San Diego about reliever acquisition, he could at least be slightly below average.
I suppose it's possible he'd consider hiring Kim Ng to be media friendly, and so feasible. But really I think neither Ned nor Grady will go anywhere this offseason. So we'd best hope for excellent fortune.
You jest but that is a team that needs to go young. Berkman in LF would be nice.
True. And maybe that's exactly the point. So much was written about how Tracy and DePo were not on the same page. Could it be that Grady and Ned are also on different pages?
It seems to me that Grady might be conflicted. Based on the words I heard from him, he played a guy at first base for half of the season not because he thinks he's best option but because that was the hand dealt to him by the GM.
Maybe he also feels obligated to play a guy in center field because the GM made such a long commitment to him? Maybe he feels obligated to play a guy in left field because the GM made a financial commitment to him? Maybe he felt obligated to keep certain guys in the fourth and fifth starter spots because the GM made a big trade or signing to get him?
59 "10 years"
63 "15 years"
Heck, by the end of this thread the Astros will probably be contracted.
Although I would expect the Pirates to concentrate more on guys like Woodfork and LaCava, who are likely capable GMs and have connections to the team.
McLane just wanted a yes-man. The fact that he even interviewed Wade or Beattie showed that he had no interest in competency.
The difference is Tracy was putting a weak hitting catcher at 1st instead of Choi/Tomato
To deny this possibility is essentially to say that, if Kemp were the one with the 5-year $44 million contract and Pierre the one making the league minimum, Pierre still would have started everyday and Kemp would still have been a AAA/platoon player.
He's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. If he plays poorly, he'll be thought of as a guy who can't play. If he plays well the rest of the year, he'll be thought of as a guy who can play well in garbage time but choked up when the pennant was on the line, a reputation that could follow him the rest of his career, as reputations often do. Either way, he'll have a significant black mark on his record going into 2008, at least as far as mgmt and most fans are concerned.
LaRoche's best option might be to shut it down for the rest of the season and make it clear that his back has been messed up since he got recalled from AAA.
My concern is that Little and Colletti are on the same page and, if so, will lead to mediocrity for years to come.
My other concern is that McCourt isnt smart enough to see this.
Frank has really put himself in a corner with the way he handled the Tracy/Depo situation so I dont expect much change in Dodger management.
Which brings me to something else -- Jon, in his fabulous article, chose not to mention one of my main beefs regarding the Dodgers' 2007 season -- the misuse of Jonathan Meloan. First Colletti refused to call him up and then Grady refused to use him, a stubbornness that has perhaps cost the team dearly.
More like out of the frying pan and straight into the depths of hell.
I don't think it's nearly as complicated as that. If Nomar struggles and Andy has a good spring it would not surprise me in the least to see AR starting at 3b to open the season, especially after Nomar's horrid 2007. Barring a FA signing of course.
If Andy plays well in April, I think his first year struggles will be forgotten.
These are a lot of "if's" though.
I guess he could get in if the starter doesn't make it to the 5th
*Or Mike Lowell, heaven forfend.
While I don't disagree with that, it illustrates the problem quite well -- Nomar and LaRoche are being judged by two different sets of standards, even though neither of them has really proven he is a major league caliber hitter.
http://tinyurl.com/36h42u
Ironically, I can get the Pads game.
Might be too close to call.
(Not that I'm saying this game is over mind you, it is Coors and all...)
Predict 120 wins and an 11 game sweep of the playoffs. Call anyone who disagrees with you a Giants fan.
Call for the head of the entire organization the first time you go through a 2-8 stretch, and say how you would have signed [whatever free agent happens to be doing well at the time].
Caps lock is your friend.
/silverlining
And the good news for today's game? We might see Meloan!
But if that's true, then wouldn't that suggest that Ned didn't do a very good job of putting the roster together?
How can Ned say both that he put a good roster together and that Grittle got a lot out of the roster?
Injuries?
The Dodgers were never going to be all young this year but by keeping their youngsters, they certainly seem on their way.
They're all on baseball-reference.com
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAD/2007_lu.shtml
Worse than bad: irrelevant.
Team Jim Tracy works for: 1
146/147/154 - Indeed! ;-)
w00t!
I think I'll send you an anonymous email saying you should have pointed out the lack of playing time for Olmedo Saenz as the main culprit for the Dodger woes.
If the season ended today, only 3 out of 8 teams would have repeated from last year, which was the same from 2005 to 2006.
Now, could the Dodgers become a team like the Yankees or Braves that go year after year, that is something to hope for but I think there were too many questions for this team to reach that status right now.
You play 162 games to eliminate 22 teams and it remains the hardest professional sport to qualify for the post-season.
This isn't football, basketball or hockey where a much larger percentage of teams qualify for the post-season, baseball is tough and it is the exception rather than the rule to make it to the post-season.
I think what Underdog said "is that even possible" would suffice.
A lot of credit should be given to the DBacks and Padres for "winning it".
Honestly, besides Scioscia, who could keep Dodger fans (or any fans) happy longer than a couple months?
The only problem I have with Grady is how he has abused Broxton, Martin and, now, LaRoche. (Did anyone else cringe when he dove for Atkins' double earlier? Remind me again why we have a kid with a bulging disc playing in this game?)
Any relation to the ex-Dodger great...?
I think we should ban the idea of hiring ex-Dodger stars.
In honor of Ned Colletti and Grady Little, the men who sabotaged the Dodgers' 2007 season by propping up the decrepit carcasses of Juan Pierre and Luis Gonzalez so Bison Kemp and his 125 OPS+ could rot on the bench.
Sounds like Eric Enders.
Candido would never use a regular name like Carlos for his kid.
they do have a point though, in that there are several other ballparks in the NL which eclipse coors field in terms of park effects.
Meanwhile, Grady's thinking, "If I bring in Broxton right now, we might have a shot at this thing."
Why, he has a career OPS of 784 in over 1000 ab's on the road?
[there are several other ballparks in the NL which eclipse coors field in terms of park effects.]
Doesn't this have a lot to do with the fact that Rockies opponents (Pads, Dodgers, Dbacks) don't hit many home runs? Maybe I'm wrong; I'm not a stats guru.
But humidor or no, it's impossible to compare Coors Field or Rockies hitters to their NL brethren. It was, is and always will be Arena Baseball in Denver. There are countless hits in that park that would be routine lineouts/flyouts in regular parks. OFers play SOOOOO deep.
Oh, and there's that thin-air thing, too.
For all these reasons, gotta go with David Wright for MVP. Big numbers, 30 steals, tougher defensive position and plays in a pitcher's ballpark.
Just hold your cursor over "Bring Me Colletti's Head on a Plate" and you'll see the answer on the status line at the bottom of your screen.
I think Orel's attitude is upright right now. I haven't noticed any pitch or yaw.
I have friends who are from New Zealand. Their daughter is from North Carolina.
He is smart, so that come off as a know it all.
Sadly, I am guessing players would like that more.
Except when Larry Walker played in 1997.
Pujols
Peavy
Wright
Rollins
Holliday
Utley
Penny
Reyes
Webb
Cabrera
In general my feeling is that if we cared about winning, we would hire people to run the team who have built a championship team before. I realize people need a chance, but that's what other markets are for. It's no suprise to me that 4 playoff apperances in 19 years and we have had 3 GM's who had never been GM's before. You guys older than me would probably throw Claire in that group as well.
The Dodgers have been to the playoffs more.
The Dodgers have gone to the playoffs four times since 1988.
Oh yeah, I forgot Art's first stint.
Well, there was probably one in St. Louis last year that was about as bad, but at least they had time to recover from that one.
You can't remember back to 1997? After the Dodgers were swept in a 2-game set in San Francisco, they came back home and lost three straight to the Rockies.
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/JxGM
The Dodgers top OPS+ seasons since 1959
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/Rfwr
I had a bad feeling about this series, anyway.
The folks on the Loose Cannons show are calling for Little to be fired. They say that Lasorda has been grumbling about the team "underperforming". Probably just talk but it only takes a spark...
They want Kevin Kennedy to take over. No mention of Colletti and his performance.
I've heard he's the worse SS in baseball. Do you think they will move him to CF?
you could divide scoring into two categories:
PVL runs
luck runs
246 No way should Grady Little be fired before Ned Colletti. That's the only thing I have to say about that...
Wait, do we still call him 3.5?
In two starts (both at Petco) he has given up 3 runs in 12 innings, striking out 11 and walking none.
Amazing what a ballpark can do for confidence.
Wait Ethier hit one-who knows-who cares-I do.
That and Rick Honeycutt not trying to change his delivery, which Tomko thinks was the principal cause of his stuggles.
Good-bye says LaRoche. Just play him if he's healthy, and several years of obsevation says the power will come in gobs.
LaRoche!!!
Our next manager should be Larry Dierker. That has a snowball's chance in LA of happening though.
Excellent point on the feel of today's game, Jon. It does feel like spring training. The joy is in watching the young guys do something good.
I'm only bummed that I was following on Gameday so I didn't actually see it. Was it a good smash?
I would love that.
(Sorry, I couldn't resist.)
That was an improvement over his previous 3 starts: 11 BB, 6 K
Remember he has minor league history back east in my Berkshires.
Back to Gameday for me.
Guess that'll be it for Meloan this season.
The Dodgers are convinced that Jonathan Broxton's arm, which he described as "sore" after allowing a game-losing homer to Brad Hawpe on Wednesday night, is tired from 80 appearances -- but not injured.
"That's a September thing, and it comes along with being 23 years old when you're in as many games as he's been in," said Little. "It happens to everyone, at some time or another."
Little said Broxton would be given "a couple of days off."
Said Honeycutt: "Most of Broxton's mistakes have been breaking balls. This is the time of year when the guys you depend on have a heck of a workload, and there's going to be some days, either mentally or physically, that you feel better or worse than other days."
Rob Neyer wrote an article a few years ago about how Dierker embraced sabermetrics.
His time up here this month was to be around a team when they are fighting for a playoff spot, no to be up here and be a cog in the bullpen. This was a reward for his work the last couple of years but remember he is only a year removed from High A ball.
Meloan will be better next year.
So he strikes out Holliday and Atkins and gets Helton? Meloan will be a rollercoaster 'til he gets acclimated - hopefully next season.
He was going to pitch when the game was 7-0, if he gives up a homer, who cares.
Now its 7-4 so it looks worse but I don't think it really is any different.
He threw nothing but 88 - 89mph fastballs to the first couple hitters. He started mixing in his breaking ball and looked great.
http://tinyurl.com/3bdbcc
Laroche
Ethier
Has not played Kemp
I saw a few 90mph & 91mph, I think he tops out at 95mph but is steady at 93-94 when his arm is nice a lose.
That would be it.
Good stuff. I think I need to get a copy of Dierker's book.
You asked for a truce? Don't you know Jon has the same nickname as Ulysess S. Grant?
The Astros players didn't like Dierker's style very much either.
Arizona (9 games left)
Los Angeles @ Arizona 9/21-9/23
Arizona @ Pittsburgh 9/25-9/27
Arizona @ Colorado 9/28-9/30
San Diego (10 games left)
Colorado @ San Diego 9/21-9/23
San Diego @ San Francisco 9/24-9/26
San Diego @ Milwaukee 9/27-9/30
Even a 10-year-old could find this discouraging.
Also, it really is the last big series of the year for the Dodgers unless they sweep and the Rockies sweep the Padres.
You can have all the good intentions and statistical data to back you up, but if you can't get the rest of your team to buy into it, what good are they?
I've known some very good bosses who got saddled with bad employees. And then they ended up being a good boss for someone else.
Among Dodgers since 1947, for players who have had more then 20 stolen bases and an OBP > 350 who do you think has the highest OPS+?
I would think the top two answers would surprise most people but I could be wrong.
http://tinyurl.com/ysdx8c
P.S. I looked but didn't see this posted. Sorry if you already knew.
But we're all still happy about it. Now if only Pittsburgh can be dumb as well.
Sorry.
Like the sun rising in the east.
The Phillies will play the Nats 7 out of their last 10 games.
The Rockies will play both the Padres and D-Backs in 6 of their last 9 games.
The team of Coonelly and Zdurienick would challenge spellcheck programs for years.
Jeff Kent, get lost!
Abreu takes over at 2B once Kent reaches his PA threshold. Then Hu takes over at SS. If his back is OK, LaRoche gets all of the starts at 3B.
Pierre and Gonzo get a 1-2 starts but are used mostly as PHs. For the most part, the OF is Young-Kemp-Ethier.
If Kent were to retire or otherwise leave the team, would Ned claim that he was caught off guard and go sign Luis Castillo to a 5 year deal in desperation?
ding ding ding ding ding ding!
[time to augment my FA list to include 2B's]
Unless someone needs advice on the best mustache wax, please stop trying to influence our younger kids. We actually enjoy things like "enthusiasm" (you may want to google that. I'm guessing your not familiar with the term).
yours,
Hallux
Isn't he pretty much always like that?
2B Abreu
CF Kemp
1B Loney
3B LaRoche
RF Ethier
C Martin
LF Young
SS Hu
Kent leaving wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, but there's the strong possibility of adding Luis Castillo. Doesn't a top-of-the-order of Castillo-Pierre-Furcal sound great? I bet it does to NedCo.
what a JOKE! The dude should just retire.
I may really dislike Ned and his moves and think he will do bad things, but even I do not think he is that dumb.
Thanks for posting that. I wonder if Jeff Kent has looked at the statistics for this season? The "young players" basically outplayed the veterans in every facet of the game. This comment makes me hope he doesn't come back. I'm sure he's also just very frustrated, which is understandable, and maybe didn't think through the veil of his emotions, but logically, anyone who's watched this season with both eyes open will know that Kent is completely wrong.
Manufacture runs? Ughh...
And i thought Jeff Kent was one of the cool ones.
Can this Ned Colletti veteran-ness/PVL nightmare end please?
I personally would want Ned to sign Jose Valentin.
Calling out the kids in the press doesnt show me much professionalism.
Now for the worst part. I'm no Milton Bradley fan. But I thought to myself, I wonder if Kent would have glared that way at, say, Ethier or LaRoche?
I left a comment over there as well, but I don't think it's gonna get approved.
I'd love to see one of our young players just put Jeff Kent in his place...i.e out to pasture.
And as someone who does say things like back in my day, I would imagine that part of what he said (and again the problem of we hate guys who say nothing and they say something we get mad) is frustration but they were carrying 11 extra guys, which is a lot no matter how you slice it.
yup, your reminded of "stuff"/shenanigans he him self has done, like I said what I joke.
Like it or not, they should watch how he approaches the game and how he acts on the field, they could be a little nicer off the field but the guy has played well as a Dodger from where I sit.
We appear to be well on our way to doing just that.
If Kent has said, "The young players kept us afloat this year, and us veterans let them down..."---I doubt many would find a problem with that.
But again, its why baseball is so messed up bc it in the end its an old boy network and people are judged more on PVL than talent.
Thats why the NFL is so so so much better. Doesnt matter if ur old or young---if you cant play, you get cut. 10 yr vet, life long player with the team---if you arent good enough to make the 53-man you're cut.
yeah, I suppose he has & his bat IS needed with the lack of power on this team, hopefully Ned gets us a power bat for '08.
And, yeah, I've seen as much or even more bad baserunning from Kent than I have from Kemp and company the past month so if he wants to point fingers he should start by looking in his mirror.
LaRoche isn't a stellar defensive third baseman and bumping him two spots up the defensive spectrum is a guaranteed disaster.
We need to play these youngsters and if you don't like it then get the fudge out!
I have heard him say that he thinks there a lot of good young players that can play too (on his Prime Ticket interview).
I think the frustration blew up over the last couple of weeks starting in San Francisco and ending here.
Probably what set it off was the continued merry-go-around at third base, by now Loney and Kemp have been around, they make some mistakes but those are outweighed by their talent.
But my guess is that certain guys felt that Nomar and Gonzo should get most of the time and unless he was tired, Kent probably should play too.
All this being said, I think it is a poor choice of words and is something that should have been kept in the clubhouse.
That's how I feel about Jeff Kent. I consider him a no-doubt Hall of Famer. He likely has a few -- maybe several -- years of productivity left in him. If he were to decline his option or demand a trade or retire, I would not miss him.
I actually felt good about this series (shows how unrealistic I am :-) ). I thought we'd win 3 of 4. In fact, I figured if we were able to beat Jeff Frances we would have a great chance to sweep them. I thought the very worst that would happen would be a split. The Rockies sweeping us never entered my mind. I guess it should have. :-)
No, this is what happens when you try to bridge the gap without totally going young.
And again, its give insight to what Grady had to deal with for the last few months.
So any frustration has to go to Ned because he created this mess if it is a mess because there is no way, Gonzo signs if he thinks he would be part of some rotation and Nomar didn't sign to get pushed out by Loney.
So I don't think you can tell guys to leave a party if they didn't know that was the party they were going to.
I believe the home run was celebrated like any other home run when the team is behind.
Sure you can. This is sports. The Dodgers have the right to do whatever the feel is best for the team.
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