Other than an ability to score runs, championship teams need two very good starters,a couple of innings eaters, and a couple of very good relievers. The Dodgers had two of three for most of the season.

Colorado did a great job of pitching to Loney and it appeared that he was the guy they were going to most careful with in the four game series. More or less taking Loney out of the offense and Broxton's hurting arm was enough to sweep the Dodgers.

The Dodgers were in the playoff race until only ten days ago with a young team. Pierre wasn't the problem. Perhaps weakness at third base and Furcal playing hurt all year and no innings eaters were the culprets.

When teams win every decision looks much better and when they lose most decisions are second guessed.

1 I think the argument goes something like this: if Colletti had never signed Pierre or Garciaparra this off-season and simply gone with the in-house options -- Kemp, Loney, Betemit/LaRoche -- the team would have had better offense all year and been able to withstand the pitching slumps that came later. If the Dodgers' offense had been better, there might not have been a playoff race -- they might have been way out in front.

Of course, simply saying it doesn't make it so, and we'll never know, obviously. There are a lot of questions. Would more playing time for Loney and Kemp have brought their production down? If LaRoche truly got a shot and struggled, would it have meant more playing time for Ramon Martinez at 3B?

Still, it's hard to imagine my imagined offense being worse than the real-life one that we saw. Saying that Pierre wasn't the problem is, at best, incomplete -- he wasn't the problem by himself, but he was a millstone around the neck of the offense for four months.

1 - Don't have time to get deep into this today, so forgive me, but center field is still arguably a bigger problem for the Dodgers than third base.

On Baseball-Reference.com, they have sOPS+, which is "OPS+ ... relative to the major league OPS for this split."

Dodger 3B: 84 sOPS+
Dodger CF: 81 sOPS+

This doesn't take into account baserunning, which would put Pierre over the top, I presume. But until his recent hot streak, Pierre was the Dodgers' biggest lineup problem.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?team=LAD&year=2007

I wonder how annoyed Andy LaRoche is to be the one scheduled for a chat right after the Vets vs. Young'uns spat hit the fan? (Although I'm sure all the questions that he is fed will be sanitized.)

Regarding CF...OPS+ dosen't even talk about the other side of the diamond.

Defense matters.

5 Right, but nobody can agree on what kind of defender Pierre is. He looks terrible, but the numbers say not so much. He takes terrible routes, but his speed likely makes up for it. He has a terrible arm, but... well... um....

5 - True enough, though I don't know that there's that great a difference between the Dodgers' 3B and CF defense this season.

Pierre's defense is an open question, statistically. There are metrics that peg him as excellent. There are metrics that peg him as well below average.

Pierre's defense is an open question, statistically

Isn't just about everyone's?

You can't just shrug off the arm part. But yeah I don't have stats of course but not many people were taking extra bases off our 3b men. It wasnt as if people were laying down bunts to 3b because they knew our 3b couldn't get them. In CF, people ran on Pierre all year long without hesitating.

If John Dewan comes out with a new Fielding Bible we can see how many runs Pierre's arm has cost us. His net SB's are only worth about 7 runs to begin with. I would think 20-30 incremental 1-to-3rds cancels this out and then some.

10 - I'm not shrugging anything off. But I do feel that our 2007 third basemen collectively did not have the greatest range, though they did benefit from playing alongside Furcal.

9- I don't know how wide the average variance is, but I suspect Pierre's is greater than it.

I emailed Gurnick to stop floating LaRoche as "trade candidate." He replied that he's more concerned with his injury history than his slow start.

11 The best study on arms I've seen shows that Pierre costs his team an average of five runs a year with his arm, which is already one the worst of all time, without considering that he's yet to start declining.

13
Any idea why Pierre would have a relatively large variance?

14 - Well, if there is a trade candidate on this team, don't you think it's him? Not endorsing it per se, but from a reality perspective.

16- Maybe I'm wrong, actually. I should start looking things up before making grand pronouncements.

Chris Dial called Pierre the best defensive CF in the NL, last year; BP had him as average. Dial hasn't put out a list like that, this year, but MGL's UZR (last updated 7/17), which I understand (perhaps wrongly) to be a similar system, had him five runs below average; BP has him twelve runs worse than average. The Hardball Times's RZR has him in the middle of all qualified CFs.

I'm not getting worked up about the clubhouse problem because the correct answer is so simple even a McCourt could understand it, so simple it doesn't even qualify as a dilemma. It's not like Shaq vs. Kobe where you had to sacrifice a franchise player and hamstring the team no matter what you did. Gonzo is gone-zo. Kent it seems to me is reasonably tradable and imminently replaceable. As for Nomar, you just tell him how things are going to be and explain what he can do to himself or up a rope if he doesn't like it. And hey, so much for the positive value of veteran leadership.

Fortunately the right thing to do is also the cheap thing to do. Baseball seems to have realized that trading prospects for front-line talent is a mug's game; you're expected to give up two or three times the potential of what you get in return, and the only real sure thing you're getting is that your end is far more expensive. Do you think anybody would want to give up James Loney and Clayton Kershaw for Mark Teixiera now that they know he doesn't carry a pennant in his back pocket?

3 Still the biggest dropoff from last season was Rafael Furcal who had an 107 sOPS+ in 2006 and this year has a career low 77 sOPS+.

As positions go, here are the differences from 2006 - 2007.

C +17 (133 sOPS+)
1B -29 (90 sOPS+)
2B +4 (117 sOPS+)
3B 0 (84 sOPS+)
SS -30 (84 sOPS+)
LF -25 (96 sOPS+) (Note that 2006 is slightly skewed due to Marlon's amazing September, he had 207 sOPS+) (Gonzo is at 102 sOPS+ compared to Ethier's 2006 115 sOPS+)
CF -15 (81 sOPS+)
RF -3 (108 sOPS+)

So what does this show, certainly, of the opening day starters, only Martin and Kemp provided consistent production, the offense was dragged down by Furcal and Garciaparra, Pierre, while a drag, the team could have survived it, and if not for the boost provided by James Loney and Matt Kemp, the numbers would be a lot worst.

20 Sorry Jeff, I meant Kent instead of Kemp.

Pierre was rated the worst CF in the "Fans' Scouting Report," this year. It's the last set in the post.

http://tinyurl.com/3befb8

19 - Nomar, to his credit, hasn't inserted himself into this conversation (I think). He took his move to 3rd in stride. And I think he's the default starter there going into next season, though with a similarly short leash as this year if LaRoche plays well. Maybe that's why he's kept his mouth shut.

Could somebody give me the Reader's Digest version of "sOPS+"?

In comment #3 Jon's defines it as "sOPS+, which is "OPS+ ... relative to the major league OPS for this split."

Pardon my slowness.

Furcal was a bigger problem than Pierre, this year, because Furcal was much better than Kenny Lofton, last year?

20 I don't understand. Pierre provides the least offense of any of the starters, but he's not the problem because other players, who should have been better, were terrible?

Clearly, I'm missing what you're trying to say.

24 -

OPS= on-base percentage plus slugging percentage

OPS+ = OPS relative to the league average, adjusted for park effects. Average is 100. Anything above 100 is better than average.

25 If Furcal puts up a season consistent with his previous 4 years, then I do think the Dodgers would have a had a better season.

I would say that the drops in production by Furcal and Garciaparra had more of an negtive impact than Juan Pierre playing CF for the Dodgers in 2007.

24
I assume sOPS+ tells you the player's OPS relative to other players who play the same position. So, a 100 sOPS+ for a catcher would mean that his OPS was equal to the average OPS for all catchers. An sOPS+ above 100 means above average, and below 100 means below average.

26 Because, Juan Pierre is Juan Pierre. He does what he does, so you surround with guys who should produce around him.

Its not like every team is filled with great offensive talent at every position.

And anyway, if Jon is going to use sOPS+ as a reference point, why can't I compare the postions to what happened last year and conclude that while Juan Pierre may have the worst the numbers individually, when you look at the bigger picture, the fall offs at other positions hurt the team as much if not more.

30 Sorry, I am not singling out Jon for my point, its just that I think we should be able to use statistics as a basis of any argument, that's all.

23 - i agree that nomar has to be considered the default starter at 3b going into the offseason. laroche, for all his potential, has yet to put together any sustained run of success, owing largely to the fact he hasn't been given the opportunity.

i'm not completely off the nomar bandwagon yet, but where in the world are we supposed to bat him? it's a real puzzle. what's the point of playing him and then batting him 8th? it makes little sense.

Would you say that Chris Duncan is the brighter spot of the Cardinals' offense, since he's much better than So Taguchi was last year, while Albert Pujols's OPS+ is down?

30 why can't I compare the postions to what happened last year

Lofton had a 102 sOPS+ last year.

17 That's only if your reality assumes management is short-sighted and will sell low on a top prospect. The over/under on Nomar ab's next year is 400 so LaRoche will get 200+ ab's.

32 - what's the point of playing him and then batting him 8th? it makes little sense

Is there a pun in there somewhere?

35 - Well, given that the question of who the Dodgers get in return was left open ... I'm assuming that more teams would be interested in a cheap LaRoche than an expensive Nomar.

For all I know, LaRoche could be traded for Miguel Cabrera.

Pierre, while a drag, the team could have survived it

This doesnt make much sense. Thats like saying if you put Pierre into the Yankees lineup, the Yankees would still manage to score runs. Yeah, of course.

But Pierre was the worst problem on the Dodgers. Taking blame away from him by stating other players (whom are already better than Pierre) should have performed even better is a disservice to those players and lack of acknowledgement of the true suckiness that is and will continue to be Juan Pierre.

32 - Why can't he bat 8th? If Ned and Grady think he has anything left and can contribute at 3rd (since he's already under contract) that will alleviate any need to go out and sign an impact 3B, and prevent them from trading LaRoche. They'll need Andy to take over in June when Nomar is hitting .265 and sidearming throws into the stands behind first base.

He will hit somewhere lower in the order though. He's not hitting 3rd anymore.

Stats make baseball more fun and are a big part of the game and its history. Sometimes I ignore stats though and just ask myself if I am enjoying someone play or not. I do not enjoy watching Pierre mostly because of his super weak arm. Not only that but the Dodgers already had a great leadoff hitter in Furcal when Pierre was obtained. Just the same Pierre, after the season was done, was not the reason the Dodgers did not make the playoffs(assuming).

I hated the Nomar signing because of my fear that he would play first instead of Loney. Nomar could still be the guy that holds down third base until a trade is made or a young player steps up and takes the job.

Because, Juan Pierre is Juan Pierre. He does what he does, so you surround with guys who should produce around him

Send this quote to FireJoeMorgan.

Not to pick on you BHS, but wow.

29 Thanks. So a CFer and a 3rd baseman with identical stats would have different sOPS+ ratings? Is this the new EQA?

42 - No, I wouldn't look at it as the new EQA. That's sort of an apples and peaches comparison.

I wonder what it means that the top 5 all time single season assist leaders for centerfielders are all from the 19th century!

1. Hardy Richardson: 45 (Buffalo Bisons, 1881)
2. Charlie Duffee: 43 (St. Louis Browns, 1889)
3. Jim Fogarty: 42 (Philadelphia Quakers, 1889)
4. Tom Brown: 39 (Louisville Colonels, 1893)
5. Tom Brown: 37 (Louisville Colonels, 1892)
6. Jimmy Ryan: 36 (Chicago White Stockings, 1889)

45 assists! Either he had a gun for an arm, or baserunners were awful back then, or both. I'd be tickled with one from Pierre...

Top 6, rather. Tris Speaker had 35 in 1912. Who's the record holder in the modern era?

CF is typically a speed position and 3b is typically a power position. Pierre better matched up to the typical cf better than anybody demonstrated as typical for 3b this year for the Dodgers.

From Colletti's perspective, of course he has to surround Pierre with players who are actually good if he wants the team to score runs. It's a perfectly sensible way of dealing with the problem (one he volunteered for, but still and all). But I don't see how it gets to be Furcal's fault that Pierre isn't good at baseball. It's like the inverse of the Kelorie theory, where Lofton's mere presence was supposed to fire up his teammates. Pierre's presence morally obligates Furcal to be great, so as to carry him? I can't get next to that.

47 - Pierre has a World Series ring playing CF because he was surrounded by players doing their jobs while he did his Pierre thing. That is the only answer I can think of to answer your question.

44 It means that there was no real power hitting then, so outfielders played much shallower.

45 Sort of answered your own question there, didn't ya?

49 Ah, right, should've figured that. Not only no steroids, but pre-Wheaties even!

48 - the Marlin's Pierre was much better than the Dodgers' Pierre. Ned apparently glossed over the Cubs Pierre in his evaluations.

I did, though I meant even more recent than Tris Speaker. ;-) Say, past 50 years.

Record holders for fewest in a season, min. 150+ games, according to baseball almanac:
2
NL Barry Bonds 1998
Lenny Dykstra 1993
Brian McRae 1996

I wonder how up to date that is. How could Juan Pierre not be on that list?

53- He only played 149 games in 2002, or he'd have made it. If he doesn't pick up another one this year, he'll make it.

53 - Pierre has 2 this year, which would be a career low for him (3 in '01 and '04). He had 7 his last year in Florida, and 5 last year.

Post-1920, the most career assists is Clemente with 266. Not sure about who has the most in a single season, though. Roberto's high was 27.

In other news, Pierre has 6 games left in which to hit his first HR of the season, and first as a Dodger.

55 7 must have happened when he was playing shallow, 19th century style.

57 Look for his inside the park bunt homer on the last game of the season.

Did I miss the hoorays about Pittsburgh settling their GM search today?

59

I took a peek. Not a bad play to get a guy who had been a part of the Indians organization. If the first action is ditch Tracy, the Pirates could be on the path to success.

39 - nomar batting 8th is basically admitting that he's washed up. it's traditionally where you stash your worst hitter. if he's nothing special defensively and our worst hitter, why even play him at all? (i realize it's because he makes a ton of $$$ and he's nomar garciaparra.)

if we're dealing with such a limited upside, i'd much rather go with laroche and let him take his lumps [and walks].

More First Basemen on the way.

Austin Gallagher #7 BA Prospect in Pioneer League
Jamie Ortiz #12 BA Prospect

They project that Gallagher may have to move 1B eventually, though he is listed as an OF and Ortiz is a first basemen.

I am surprised no one is talking about Ronaldinho to Chelsea.

it's traditionally where you stash your worst hitter

Either that or the top of the lineup.

Dizzrat: "Kent's code of masculinity won't let him apologize or back down."

If you think not apologizing is a male phenomenon you're in serious need of a crash course in the opposite sex.

65 My timing is impeccable. I was just about to comment on something else, and a comment I made three days ago is being questioned. Alrighty then.

The phrase I used was "Kent's code of masculinity." His is his. It's different from mine, perhaps yours. It's not the universal code of masculinity. He just strikes me as someone who doesn't take well to being shown where he's wrong. If he says it, it's because it's right, and if it wasn't right, he wouldn't have said it. We all know guys like that.

We all know guys like that

The first one that comes to my mind if Jeff Ke..., oh, never mind.

67 - I miss the oh, never minds.

Well, if there is a trade candidate on this team, don't you think it's him? Not endorsing it per se, but from a reality perspective.

It depends on the return, obviously, but I think Ethier has a better chance of being traded than LaRoche. Upside in terms of power skews highly in Andy's favor.

40

The only time I like watching Pierre is when he is on base. I have been at many games where he does get into the pitcher's head, and it is truly fun to watch. But, that is it. I have no confidence when he is at the plate, even during his 4 for 4 games. I am always amazed that his hits make it out of the infield (when they do). It just does not look like he hits it hard enough on line drives. How did he ever hit three home runs last year?

I was thinking about what went wrong in 2007, and I remembered what went wrong in '05, and I think it's partially related.

There is this huge depression in the flow of minor league talent to the major league club, accounted for by the years of bad drafts in the late 90s/early 2000s before Evans and Logan arrived. The first fruits of the better drafting are on the big club now, but they're young. When DePo and then Colletti came here, they saw 2-3 year holes in talent development at certain positions that they went about trying to patch.

Some of DePo's patches were brilliant -- Brad Penny, Jeff Kent, Derek Lowe. Most of Colletti's have been less stellar -- the good ones are Furcal and a few less significant pieces like Proctor and Lieberthal. But the players he brought here he basically tricked into thinking we were going to be a win-now team, when in fact that was not Colletti's intention. "Tricked" might be too harsh, but he wasn't entirely straight with them.

Lowe, Kent, Gonzalez and Nomar (has he said anything?) are childishly taking out their frustration on the kids themselves, but the kids are only symbols of Colletti's lack of candor. Those three belonged on a team like the Mets or the Cubs.

Colletti should trade all four of them, even if they deals aren't quite in our favor. If There will be takers. If they don't want to be traded, it needs to be made clear to them they are part of a rebuilding, take it or leave it.

68
I don't want them to grow too stale...

A couple of interesting commebnts from some recent ESPN chats:

Marc(Minnespolis): Am I crazy for wanting the Twins to trade Johan to the Dodgers for Kemp, LaRoche and Kershaw?

Rob Neyer: I think you're brilliant, Marc; make that deal and toss in a one-year contract for Barry Bonds, and you've got yourself a 90-win team next year.
__________________________________________________

Colin (NY): You're talking 90 wins for the Twins or the Dodgers?

Rob Neyer: Twins. The Dodgers would get only 88 under the Santana Plan.

Having Santana would be great, but please please. No more platoons of Hillenbrand and Garcia-pop-up (freaking 1st ball, rally killing swinger). If we were absolutely going to get A-rod AND be able to sign an extension to Johan, then that's another story. Kemp is going to be a superstar though and we could have Abreu at 3rd until Kent leaves.
_____________________________________________________

Would anyone make that trade?

Also is anyone hoping Hu gets a legitimate shot at shortstop once Furcal's contract is up?

And finally --

Adrian (IL): Which team as the best looking women in the stands?

SportsNation Jonah Keri: (2:13 PM ET ) Awesome question. Depends on your type really. At Angels games, everyone in the stadium is blonde. I always impressed by the talent at Safeco Field. In Atlanta you have the southern thing going on, which can be great too. Honestly? Almost impossible to answer.

69 We're not re-signing Gonzo, it appears - thankfully. So the outfield should map out to Ethier, Pierre and Gonzo next year. I don't think the team is seeing Delwyn Young as a starter. So unless there's someone else out there they're gonna go after, why do you assume Ethier's more likely to be traded?

74 -- Because I think Ned will sign Torii Hunter.

Jeff Kent circa 1992-NY Times

It appeared today that it was going to be difficult for Kent to extricate himself from his isolated clubhouse position, and, in fact, the 24-year-old, who doesn't bother to disguise his temper or arrogance, appeared determined not to soften his stance.

"He was not well liked in his own clubhouse," a former official with the Blue Jays said of Kent's experience with Toronto's Class AA club. "He's totally oblivious to what it takes to fit in with a team. And he had problems with the umpires within the first month of the season last year."

Maybe Pat the Bat is still available for Lowe and Ethier. Phillies throw in Carpenter or Carrasco.

69 - I think that's canceled out by LaRoche's health concerns, but we'll see :)

74 - So the outfield should map out to Ethier, Pierre and Gonzo next year

Oh no, not again!

37 -

"For all I know, LaRoche could be traded for Miguel Cabrera."

What else do you think would have to be put into that deal to actually make it happen? I would put much higher odds on Cabrera being here next year than A-Rod, but if not........

Assuming that Kent comes back, I think I'd rather take my chances with LaRoche and/or Abreu at third next year, but I can't imagine any scenario where we could unload Nomar without paying most of his salary.

71 Calling the Proctor trade as a "good one" for Ned is insane. That trade is probably (outside of acquiring Pierre) the most damaging move Ned made this year.

Hah. Oops, sorry, Bison! Meant, Ethier, Pierre and Kemp next year.

Sorry to give you nightmares.

maybe I wouldn't put it past Ned Colletti, but I can't picture him wanting two aging centerfielders on the team, so unless he has a way to unload Pierre to get Hunter (I'd be down with that), I don't see it.

49 I wonder if the infield fly rule, or lack of same, had anything to do with it?

74 - I actually look at it the other way. I think Ethier (or...gulp...Kemp) could find themselves on the trade block as Ned tries to get a "big bat". Trading Ethier opens up a spot to put a slugger.

Or if Kemp is deemed a problem in the clubhouse, would Ned try to land an ace by dangling Kemp, and then sign an OF to replace him? I wouldn't put it past him...

3B appears to have Nomar locked in to start, with LaRoche on the way. To jettison that plan, Ned would have to deal with Nomar.

81 I don't think it was a good trade, but I don't think it turned out as badly as some feared either. I'm only slightly higher on Betemit than the Dodgers were, and not super convinced he would've solved our problems at third (though with LaRoche hurting then that trade really blew up in Ned's face). It wasn't the right trade to make - power hitting youth for a reliever - but I'm not convinced it was that terrible, either. Especially since Proctor did help stabilize an up and down bullpen a bit.

82 -- Pierre would be moved to LF because it will be impossible to move that contract. As for Hunter, he basically personifies what Ned likes in players. And I'm sure Ned will turn a blind eye to his low OBP.

83
No, center fielders used to just play a few strides behind second base. Batters couldn't hit the ball that far in days when there might be just one ball in play the whole game.

There were fairly easy putouts made at second base.

Outfielders were not as afraid to go back on a drive in the old days because it wasn't that common of an occurrence.

Tris Speaker piled up a lot of assists because he played very shallow and even after hitters got better, he was still considered to be very good at going back on balls.

Contrast that with more recent centerfield "greats" like Kirby Puckett or Ken Griffey, Jr. Those guys would pretty much stand on the warning track.

The infield fly rule was put into place to keep infielders from pulling shenanigans to get easy double plays. In general, baseball doesn't like the easy double play. Which is why the batter is out on a dropped third strike with first base occupied and none and one out, or if an infielder deliberately drops a line drives.

Nomar (has he said anything?)

I think this is a point that should not be overlooked -- I have not seen any indictments from Garciaparra. I will stand corrected if someone else points them out...

...but if this is right... I think Nomar is getting lumped in with the others because (1) he is on the older side, (2) he was not good this year, and (3) his name is brought up by the other veterans as someone who should start over LaRoche.

I was a fan of his signing for 2006, but not for 2007. I used to root for him above all others but watching him stink for a year and a half has let the air out of that balloon. He should not be starting next year, though I expect that he will be the opening day 3B.

That said, I can't lump him in with Kent, Gonzalez, and Lowe, who are mouthing off about the kids in the press. (Unless I'm wrong and he has made a comment.) In fact, Garciaparra has shown a willingness to be versatile -- he moved to 3B without comment when it was obvious that the Dodgers needed Loney's bat in the lineup. He has often said that he'd play any position that the Dodgers needed him to play.

Maybe he sees the writing on the wall -- that he will be replaced as a starter mid-next year -- and is making comments off the record or behind the scenes... but I don't know. Even if he is, and I'm not accusing him of that, it's not the same thing as an attributed quote.

From 71 Those three belonged on a team like the Mets or the Cubs.

The Cubs also had an infusion of youth this year into what most thought to be a veteran team (Theriot, Fontenot, etc). In some cases, vets even lost jobs or substantial playing time. I'm not sure it was any kind of problem in Chicago, but I guess the differences lie in -

a) Chicago is in position to make the playoffs (though they're not even really better than the Dodgers), and
b) personality of Piniella vs. Little, perhaps??

86 - Money rules, but I bet Torii would love to go to Texas. He lives about an hour away from Arlington, and Texas is pretty desperate for some offense in the outfield. Looks like a match to me, assuming they come up with a competitive offer.

At the very least, it would mean Ned would have to pony up the cash to steer him away from his comfort zone.

90 -- 6 years/$120 mil is what I predict Ned will offer. Hunter won't turn it down.

89
The Cubs problem was having shaky pitching (which is somewhat sorted out) and dead spots in the lineup (such as catcher which has been rectified). Also Soriano missed time. Now he's back and hitting home runs. Lee has had a down year for power.

Geovany Soto has been a very pleasant surprise for the Cubs.

He's more than just "better than Jason Kendall." Which would be damning with faint praise.

So we basically have 4 1b prospects in

Bell
Gallagher
Lambo
Ortiz

hmmm.

Andrew and Brian Kamenetzky said that Nomar is quite aloof, so it is not much of a surprise that he is staying out of this.

91 Even I don't think Ned will offer Torii Hunter Soriano money.

91 - $20M per year for a centerfielder, when we already have a centerfielder making $9-10M per year for the next 4 years?

I don't think much of Ned, but I would be shocked to see that.

93
Bell won't stick at third either? Hopefully a couple of them can play the outfield.

Per Rick Wilton of baseball-injury.com
"Jason Schmidt (RHP, LA)
Schmidt was able to post 200-plus innings in three of the last four seasons, and the Dodgers were confident he would provide them more of the same in 2007. Schmidt struggled with his velocity almost from the beginning of spring training, and did not pitch effectively in Florida. He landed on the DL in the middle of April with inflammation in his pitching shoulder. He worked his way back to the Dodgers in early June but never regained the velocity on his fastball. Exploratory surgery in late June revealed damage to the bursa sac, a frayed biceps tendon and a torn labrum. This extensive surgery should keep him on the DL at the beginning of next season, and he may not be productive until after the All-Star break, if at all, in 2008. "

Re: Kemp, LaRoche, and Kershaw for Santana (with, I assume, no guarantee of a contract extension)...

...No, I would not. I could not give that much up without knowing I would get to keep Santana.

That said, if I could sign A-Rod ($$$!!!) and if the Twins signed Santana to an extension before trading him ($$$ and highly unlikely), and the Dodgers could afford it, then I would have to seriously consider such a trade. What Kershaw might be, Santana already is. Whatever LaRoche might be, A-Rod is better. Kemp is the price for getting it done... and is that too much? Maybe, maybe not.

If the Twins would take LaRoche, Ethier, and McDonald (assuming the sign-ARod, Santana-locked-up-for-years caveats), I would do it in a New York minute.

86 90

Didn't notice the low OBP, but don't forget Torii Hunter has an OPS+ of 125 and 28 HRs playing at the Baggydome.

That's gotta count for something??

98 Randy Wolf is looking better and better.

97
Lambo is probably the only one of those 4 who could play the OF. Plus Kyle Orr should be added to that list. He wasn't impressive this summer but we knew he was going to take longer to develop.

BA surprised me twice. For the GCL in picking Baez over Lambo and in the Pioneer for picking Gallagher over Ortiz. Both times they went with the 3rd baseman over the 1st baseman, but if Gallagher is only a future 1st baseman, I'm not sure why they would pick Ortiz over him.

Baez we knew nothing about so it was great to read about his defense at 3b.

97 Five if you count Kyle Orr?

Or I could hit refresh and not say anything.

93 You said it.

Had a depressing daymare this morning, hypothesizing there's a greater chance of Bonds in left than ARod at third next year. Colletti may rationalize a Bonds addition -- familiarity, no kid trade needed, classic one year plus option deal, no Boras, cheaper, another year of platoon seasoning for Ethier, there's even Bonds' 2007 28 HR's and 1.053 OPS. Regarding ARod, Steinbrenner once said his biggest mistake was letting Jackson leave as a free agent, and that was when Reggie was declining. He's not going to let ARod leave.

I think there is a .000001% chance that Bonds ends up a Dodger.

Bonds to the Dodgers is as likely as Kevin Kennedy managing the team next year.

Next!

I said it before: if Jeff Kent can be a Dodger, Barry Bonds isn't that improbable.

Jeff Kent never got anywhere near the hatred that Barry gets. In addition, I think we are going to go young.

Bell won't stick at third either? Hopefully a couple of them can play the outfield.

I think Bell is athletic enough to handle a move to LF. But he needs to hit to be worth anything.

Jeff Kent never got anywhere near the hatred that Barry gets

To no credit of his own.

Delwyn has been in the Dodger organization for 6 years. The first 4 he play 2B and then moved to the OF last year. Anybody know why the move?

Jon, please read 98 .

Since the new GM has been named for the Astros Ned should approach Wade with an offer for Lance Berkman.

To the Astros:
Jeff Kent $10M in 08
Andre Ethier $400K in 08
Orenduff <$400K
one of Troncoso/Wade

To the Dodgers:
Lance Berkman $14.5M in 2008/2009/2010 plus $15M option in 2011.

Kent replaces Berkman at 1B in 08, Ethier teams with the Astros other good young OFers, Orenduff is a nice starter candidate and Troncosco/Wade is a very good RP prospect.

Berkman replaces Ethier in LF and would supply more offense than Kent for a longer period and NOT block any youngsters. Abreu takes over for Kent at 2B. Better IF defense.

Helps the Astros get younger and saves $$$$.

114 - The Astros want more than Ethier for Berkman, and that's the only thing of value in that package.

113 Delwyn Young does not have the defensive skill to play 2b regularly. An emergency 2b only.

BTW - Delwyn Young is out of options and will have to be on the 25 man roster or be lost in 2008.

Aren't Berkman's days in the outfield over?

Here I am, joining in the criticism of Colletti...but then I'm presented with mythical deals that someone thinks Ned will make and then begin garment-rending over them.

Ned is not going to offer 10 cents to Torii Hunter unless he's managed to trade Pierre, which he'll do right after he takes his niece's lucky puppy away from her.

The takeaway from this week's brouhaha is not going to be "we need more veterans." Colletti can ignore a lot of things, but he would really have to be perverted to ignore Loney and Kemp's numbers down the stretch. And the takeaway from the disastrous Schmidt, Nomar and Pierre signing won't be, we need more huge FA contracts.

I firmly believe that in the organizational debate about home-grown vs. imported PVRs, McCourt has come down on the home-grown side. Which means Colletti, a born suck-up, is a believer too. He will sneak in cheap PVRs when he can say he had no choice (Shea), but I think there will be no more Schmidt-type deals for at least a year.

If you think I'm smokin' somethin', just look at the laudatory stories about Moreno/Stoneman/Scioscia running this week. "Dodgers lost their way...Angels doing it right" is the operative meme. Having to choke this kind of stuff down with his breakfast for the next few weeks won't be pleasant. McCourt does not want to be the Gene Autry of the 21st century, spending more and more money to build a team that is almost credible, but not quite, when he can build a pennant-winner through patience and being more selective about giving up big contracts.

I'm betting Young will be on the 25-man.

109 "I said it before: if Jeff Kent can be a Dodger, Barry Bonds isn't that improbable."

Yes, but Bonds with Kent again is improbable.

PVRs are actually PVLs. Sorry. Not enough sleep last night. Forgive that and many other typos.

115 Add Loaiza to the package. Remember this is Wade he is dealing with. Of course it is Ned doing the dealing so I am not holding my breath looking for creativity.

116 /119

Isn't Kuo in the same boat? Would being on the ML roster but on the DL count? And how much patience would the Dodgers have with Kuo once he does come back?

If you take Kent out of the equation next year (either via retirement or trade), what about moving Nomar to 2nd?

Yes, but Bonds with Kent again is improbable

Granted. But if Management continues with the Youth Movement, and Kent decides he won't have a good enough chance of winning his ring with the Dodgers in 08, he might ask to be traded, thus opening the door for Mr. OPS.

117 Could Berkman be any worst in LF than Gonzo?

116 "Delwyn Young is out of options and will have to be on the 25 man roster or be lost in 2008."

Which means that the Dodgers really have a responsibility to find out what he can do -- by playing him the final week of the season.

But of course, out of respect for the game, they won't.

Trade Kent to Astos (he is a Texas boy).

Nomar to 2b backed up by Abreu when Nomar is injured.

LaRoche at 3b (better defense).

Berkman in LF (better offense).

Young will play some in the Giants series, I guarantee it.

I wouldn't describe Nomar as 'aloof'. Actually he is quite self conscious and very much hates public speaking and I guess that includes talking to teammates other than necessary talk. He does what is required of him by the Dodgers but he is not at all comfortable with it and it shows in his delivery. He may be at ease with his family but I'd bet the only one he'd really open up to is Mia. And she is exactly the same way from what I have read about her, they are a perfect match. This is not a criticism of them, that's just their personality and they have every right to be that way.

127 "Trade Kent to Astos."

He was already there. And they decided they didn't want him anymore. He's already alienated the guys in that clubhouse.

As far as I know, Kent doesn't have a no-trade clause in his contract. However, I doubt Ned would trade him some place he didn't want to go. Houston might be attractive to Kent because of location, but their 20-games-under-.500-record this year isn't gonna make him feel good about their championship chances next season.

120 - wholly comprehensible so long as you write with a Japanese accent.

118 - I find it unlikely that Frank McCourt even knows who Gene Autry is.

Since Wolf wants to stay and Tsao was happy here they should be offered minor league contracts with NRIs for ST. They would then not be counted on the 40 man.

Their contracts would be for good minimums ($4M for Wolf and $500K for Tsao) if they are healthy in ST. If Wolf is healthy his contract would also pay him $250K per start for every start after #16 giving him the same salary as in 07. Maybe a team option for 09.

133 - he's the singing cowboy, right?

133
Everyone knows who sang "Rudolf the Red Nosed Reindeer".

130 The Astro clubhouse is full of brand new faces never insulted by Kent before. Also, Astro management is brand new and has had no negative experiences with Kent.

No contending team will want Kent, so he just has to settle for something different than blue.

Gene Autry will be remembered a thousand years after McC is paved over.

Anyone think the Yankees would take a flyer on Kent? And more importantly, is there something we can raid from their system?

Off topic but has anyone heard the new Mark Knopfler album? I am a fan. Didn't even realize he had a new record out.

Actually I think San Francisco is the perfect destination for Kent, Nomar, and Pierre. Problem is, who would we want in trade????

136 - But who sang Back in the Saddle Again?

Hint: It wasn't Roy Rodgers

137 I don't understand why no contending team would want an 872 OPS at 2B. Even with his baggage, it's a one-year contract.

For that matter -- assuming this all blows over -- I don't understand why the Dodgers don't want Kent for next year. Sure, they have Abreu, which is a nice fallback position if we can trade for something else of value, but I don't think his production is not going to equal Kent's next year. I don't see Jeff Kent as a must-trade...

...and besides, it's not going to happen.

Anybody remember Bobby Grich saying hello Mr. Rogers to Gene Autry when he came into the clubhouse? It got a good laugh.

My first line in 143 could be clearer. I think any contending team would be happy with an 872 OPS from 2B.

Not that I could take it but the Dodgers could pretend to be interested in Bonds and get Kent to ask for a trade or a buy out of his contract.

Kent'll be fine. He'll be his usual grouchy self, which didn't prevent the Dodgers from winning in 2006, or for the first three-quarters of 2007. We shouldn't dump him; he should only be traded if we're actually going to get something good in return.

Also, I have to assume he has some sort of limited no-trade clause even though we haven't heard about it. Players of his stature almost always do.

From the press notes:

Loney's .396 average with runners on base is the highest by a National League rookie in the past 30-plus years (since 1974; minimum 150 plate appearances). Source: STATS, LLC

148 Just more proof that James Loney has no respect for those who came before him. He should respect those records and approach them, but not pass.

What's the matter with kids today?

For those interested in such things, the new Springsteen album, which releases a week from today, can be heard in its entirety here:
http://www.q1043.com/cc-common/news/sections/special/springsteen_bruce.html

149 I absolutely agree. Rookie records should be reserved for veterans.

Pierre, CF
Kemp, RF
Loney 1B
Kent, 2B
Martin, C
Ethier, LF
LaRoche, 3B
Hu, SS
Penny, P

YES!!!

152 Good stuff.

Let Pierre play three innings, then let Kemp play center and put Young in the game.

152 Not bad. Still, who'll join me in marching for Delwyn Young? Chowder will be served.

150 - Thanks!

By the way, has anyone noticed that Delwyn Young appears to be an emerging candidate for Vinny mancrush status? (Along with James Loney, Pedro Feliz, and Hanley Ramirez, among others.)

135 - does that mean colletti is the signing cowboy?

150 - I like what I'm hearing so far - the subsequent songs more than Radio Nowhere.

154 I'm in, I guess, but only if you've got some oyster crackers to go with.

158 I'm halfway through my first listen. So far "Gypsy Biker" is the standout for me.

156 - You forgot Byrnesy!

156 /161 And the O-Dog!

Looking at the timeline on that Springsteen link, it occurs to me that he may be the last of the big R&R stars older than I am (and not by much: I was born the year following his birth).

150 Thanks is right. This sounds great.

Vin LOVES Jose Reyes

Vin loves Eric Byrnes too.

160 - Now hearing Girls In Their Summer Clothes - that's immediately running first for me.

The lyrics to all the songs can be found here:
http://www.springsteenlyrics.com/

156 "By the way, has anyone noticed that Delwyn Young appears to be an emerging candidate for Vinny mancrush status?"

Scully always winds up his statements about Young's hitting prowess by saying, "...but it's the old story. Where do you put him?"

I can never tell if he means, "In an outfield already loaded with Kemp, Pierre, Ethier and Gonzalez, there is no hope he'll crack it," or if he means, "Delwyn Young has hands of stone."

If it's the former, problem is easily solved. Lose Juan Pierre at the mall. Or, trade Ethier.

Tried to do my part for Saito. I love this line-up. Its just an awful wait on the east coast.

If anyone hasn't heard, vote for Sammy for the officially sanctioned reliever award.

Here's a rumor for y'all... Dodgers sign A. Jones or T. Hunter. Move Pierre to left. Package Ethier to Colorado for Garrett Atkins. I believe it to be a plan.

It would make me very happy to see a Dodger outfield of Young-LF, Kemp-CF, Ethier-RF.

Or Dunn-LF, Kemp-CF, Ethier-RF.

Or, for that matter, DzzrtRatt-LF, Kemp-CF, Ethier-RF

So we have Pierre as a left fielder and send Ethier to a division rival in exchange for a player we (basically) already have?

I really don't think Pierre's going anywhere. My best realistic hope is 140 games of
Ethier LF
Pierre CF
Kemp RF

and another 20-25 games of
Young LF
Kemp CF
Ethier RF

172 Can I be a Brady Clark-type fourth or fifth?

167 Oh yeah, me liking the song "Magic".

171 Trading Atkins for Ethier doesn't seem like a prudent move for the Rockies.

173. I don't make the plans, I just report the rumors. Pierre is going nowhere. Ned is happy. But even he realizes that one of the biggest problems this year was that we had little league arms in left and center. That needs to be trimmed to one little league arm in left. A new CFer means bye bye Ethier. I don't think LaRoche and Ethier are the two favorite "kids" of the front office.

175 Only if you're willing to genuflect and kiss Jeff Kent's pinky ring. :-)

177. I said package Ethier and perhaps that include LaRoche (that part I didn't hear, but it would make sense).

Can Kemp even play CF? Being on the east coast and not subscribing to MLB TV, I don't get to actually the Dodgers a lot, but even in my limited viewings, I have seen him make quite a few bad plays in the OF, and I wonder if putting him in CF is really a realistic idea? I assume that Colletti signed Pierre partially because he didn't think that Kemp could play center.

181 The scouts say he can, but the Dodgers seem to have decided that he can't, based on only a handful of innings and a couple of bad plays last September at Shea Stadium.

As long as the Ethier "package" doesn't include Kershaw, I'm OK with it.

179 Done! Have your people call my people.

180 That would make me unhappy.

This is an interesting album. Much better than what I expected it to be based on "Radio Nowhere." I like it when he mixes in the smell of 1963 cheeseburgers on the boardwalk, which I hear on a few cuts.

man, there goes the current relevance of my Ethier jersey... I knew I should have made one with Martin's name on the back last year.

178
I know that Andruw Jones just endured a season that could, in terms of floppitude, be rated a 10. That said, Ned seems to be hooked on singular stats like "200 hits and 60 steals."

I am scared that we may waste all of the payroll room we have on marginal guys that are overpriced, and Jones fits the bill as someone who has averaged "30 HR, 100 RBI".

Why is it so implausible that Ned signs Andruw Jones and offloads Pierre? I want to believe. Even if he thinks Pierre is a real asset, he has the ability to upgrade the position. There are 5-6 slappy teams that would take Pierre in a heartbeat. He did it with Izzy. We're only talking $25-30m difference.

Pierre in left field. Jesus.

I don't know if it's still true, but it used to be illegal to have a corner outfielder with zero home runs unless you had a doctor's note.

I really like the lyrics to "Livin' in the Future." Romantic and postapocalyptic at the same time. "Devil's Arcade" is good too. And "Girls in Their Summer Clothes."

I'd love to see the Dodgers get Dunn to play LF. Or for that matter, Barry Bonds next year seems like a great fit (the only way to atone for being a Giants legend is by becoming a Dodger).

I can't fathom A-Rod hitting the FA market. There is no way that the subsidized Yankees are not the highest bidder (via an extension).

The only way Pierre plays anything other than CF for our team is if Ned loses his job.

190 "Dear Mr. Colletti:
Juan's muscles are not developed enough for him to throw hard. I could attempt to fix this with surgery, but you might not like the results.
Sincerely,
Nick Riviera, M.D."

189 What team is dumb enough to take Pierre for four years and 36.5 million? The Dodgers were the only team willing to pay Juan Pierre what he received, and I don't think this season will change anyone's mind.

Offloading Pierre will mean either eating a large chunk of his salary, or giving up something useful.

With that said, since Pierre will be playing, I don't mind seeing him in left if it doesn't prevent us from signing a useful player. There's no offensive difference if the personnel doesn't change.

192 - A Dunn/Pierre/Kemp outfield would be pretty funny. You'd get crop circles forming in the outfield grass from all the roundabout routes those three take to flyballs.

181 Kemp is five times the CF Pierre is defensively speaking. He would get to balls Pierre can only watch go by. Plus Kemp has a great arm. Of course offensively Pierre is not even in the same universe as Kemp.

193 - Hi Dr. Nick!

188 Jones' season has Beltran 2005 all over it. The guy is 30. He's walking 12% of the time. He has a kooky .244 BABIP. His defense is still top 3 in the majors per THT.

Like Bill Plaschke once said "enough with clubhouse chemistry... we need some jerks who can play."

Does anybody have any idea how much FA $$$ the Dodgers have to spend this year (based on projected budget and expiring contracts)?

194 You know he's worth $6M/year. Eric Byrnes? Gary Matthews? So what's a $9M write-off when you're drawing 3.7 million.

194 But short of signing A-Rod, wouldn't giving some team cash to make Pierre go away be the best possible use we could make of our offseason budget?

201 - $5M/year until 2011 for the privelege of removing Pierre from the roster? I'd do that. Can't do anything with $5M anyway.

200 He's worth the league minimum, he's replacement level talent. The Dodgers could have traded for Rajai Davis and gotten the same performance (once you factor in defense).

193 - I thought that should come from Dr. Ira Quack.

203 Ssssshhhhh. I'm banking on 5-6 teams not knowing that.

Oh, Kemp can indeed play center field, compared to various teams or Pierre. He has ample speed and arm. And his erraticness looks very likely to improve with a bit of experience

More detailed, to get someone to take Pierre for even six million you'd have to:

1) Find a team dumb enough to take him for six million.

2) Hope they don't already have a similarly useless center fielder.

There's only about four really, really bad GMs left and only Mike Flanagan of Baltimore doesn't have his necessary dose of scrap.

206 But that will inevitably be balanced out by him getting more and more lumbering.

I won't quite say Kemp is a better baserunner than Pierre, but his flat out top speed may be higher, and this bodes well for his range in CF.

Seriously, has any team since WWII gotten zero home runs from their left fielder?

Not even Ned is crazy enough to do this, and he is plumb loco. Not going to happen.

I am more likely to believe that the team picks up Hunter or Jones and sticks that guys in left and trades Ethier for a middle reliever.

That is a scary thought. I think I'm going to shut up now.

192

I don't know if I'm alone on this but I'd hate seeing Adam Dunn manning an outfield position & striking out a boat load of times, I just absolutely LOATH his LONG swing, Just some ones opinion.

210

You know I predicted Pierre would go dingerless when we initially got him.

211 - you're not alone on this one.

208. Yeah, he may not be your ideal build for CF as he matures, but he has the power to make an excellent corner, and for his young years who are we comparing him to, Andrew Young, or Juan Pierre.

208 Nobody's saying he has to be our center fielder until 2021. The next three or four years will do nicely until a good option comes along.

201. Eric, you said it yourself, it doesn't appear Pierre is going anywhere. Ned is not unhappy with what he got other than he's realized that Pierre's arm in center really hurt us. The facts that A) Ned likes Pierre and B) Nobody else does lead me to the same conclusion you came to, he's almost certainly staying.

210. That makes no sense. Get Jones and stick him in left and let Pierre play center because left fielders traditionally knock in runs? You don't traditionally have a first basemen with little power but the Dodgers are cool with that.

216 I didn't say it made sense. I said I was more likely to believe that than Pierre moving to left.

I still say the Dodgers hire Pierre a strength and conditioning coach as well as a hitting instructor to work with him this off season. If he were to add, say 20 lbs of muscle, and stop dropping his left elbow so early, he might actually turn into a decent hitter.

DT: Adam Dunn, as

Capt. Ahab: Moby Dick

199 - I see a payroll of about $90M committed to next year. What's the budget?

216 Just to keep it real, given this years abs, Loney looks to show more power than Olerud or Grace, even now, let alone in his prime.

218. I've pointed this out before (as have others) but Pierre is ripped. He spends as much or more time in the weight room than anybody and he is quite muscular (Eric- have you seen him with his shirt off? I mean... ya know... in the work environment?). He just appears to be built like Mr. Burns when he swings a bat.

216 I'm with Eric. Cost wise and play wise, doesn't it make more sense to put Hunter in CF between Ethier and Kemp, and move Pierre, even if LA has to pay a chunk of the six mil. That I'd love to see.

Scott Podsednik had zero home runs for the White Sox in 2005.

222 - ok, then just the hitting instructor. I really do think his dropping his left elbow so early is a mechanical flaw that accounts for a lot of his performance.

MLB outfielders with 700 plate appearances and zero home runs, since 1985:

1. Juan Pierre, 2007
[end of list]

Pierre is the eighth outfielder in history to accomplish this, and the first since Marvelle Wynne in 1984. Most of the other seven had very high OBPs, which explains how they remained in the lineup.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/9GEx

224 - In the regular season at least. I can think of one homerun he hit that year.

216 Oh, I agree that he's not going anywhere. Whether he should is another matter entirely.

225 - Pierre's willingness to swing at anything and everything is not a byproduct of his elbow dropping. If Pierre could take a walk a couple of times per week, he'd be a pretty useful player.

224 That's right, I forgot. All-Star Scott Podsednik. 12th-most-valuable-player-in-the-league Scott Podsednik. .349-slugging-percentage Scott Podsednik.

211

I just had flashbacks of Drew's long strikeout swing that he would hold out there for so long

CWS won a world series with Podboy as their everyday LF. It ain't easy but it can be overcome.

230 - Don't forget traded-straight-up-for-Carlos-Lee Scott Podsednik.

214 While Kemp may be the better center fielder, Andrew Young would probably be a better mayor. Since mayors have to make eye contact during interviews.

229 - no, but his elbow dropping is a direct cause of his lack of power. A few more line drives and his SLG would jump because he has the speed to turn a lot of singles into doubles, doubles into triples, and even get around the bases. But by dropping his elbow, the vast majority of his hits end up being grounders or pop ups, and usually week.

There's actually two things that the hitting instructor could help him with.

Oops, refresh is your friend. We must have been browing baseball reference at the same time.

224

& I STILL! think Podsednik has a better home run cut than Pierre, that's how horrible a cut Pierre has. He's a singles machine I'll give him that.

I could live with an outfield of Kemp/Jones/JP but Ethier is not headed to Colorado.

I know it's not related to baseball, but the town meeting on ESPN dealing with Michael Vick was a cauldron of stupidity.

"a cauldron of stupidity"

I think we have finally found the title for the book that will be written about the 2007 Dodgers.

239
I refuse to watch something where I have to hear people defend Michael Vick.

239 - I made the mistake of not changing the channel before I turned my TV off, turned it back on and regretted it. It's 30 seconds of my life that I want back.

What if we just asked Florida for Cody Ross back, and we gave them JP while paying both salaries? Florida can't feel good about taking Ross without giving us anything, and their downturn this season is likely the karma-induced result of their actions.

There's actually two things that the hitting instructor could help him with.
Assuming he would listen, which he would not.
Asked why he decided to drop a bunt against Greg Maddux in a situation that would call for anything but a bunt, his answer was "I had just made up my mind that that's what I was going to do".

233 "Proven Veteran Leader Scott Podsednik?"

To bad about ESPN, they were a godsend to me when all you used to have was local reporters talking about local teams.

The first time I saw Baseball Tonight I thought I was in nirvana.

244 - well, then, I say trade him. nothing annoys me more than uncoachable players. I don't really care how good they are, there is always room for improvement.

What is Pierre's LD%? Is it low? He seems to hit a pretty fair share of them, it's just that they all go for singles.

243
Why, so we can watch him get hurt?

240

I believe that's the book for the 2005 season. We'll have to call 2007 "a cauldron of stupidity part deux"

240
I thought it was the mantra of the LA Times sports section.

realistically Pierre is not going to go.
The best you can hope for is Ethier/Pierre/and Kemp. So Hunter or Andrew are fantasy.

234 Even Kemp would make a better leader than the Pres/whatever of Iran. He can't make eye contact. I surely wouldn't buy a used car from him.!

243
Phillies/Werth would work too.

243 Nobody cares about Ben Kozlowski.

Being a "glass half full" kinda guy, I'm thinking that our eliminating ourselves from any chance at post season play has at least started DT Hot Stove conversation early this year, and everyone knows there's nothing better than Hot Stove Prognosticating.

Thats Andrew Jones.

250 No, no. The book for the 2005 season is titled, "Do I Think This Season Devolved into a Cauldron of Stupidity That Only a Computer Could Have Caused? Yes I Do. Beep Boop Beep!"

255 You're really looking forward to two months of speculation on whether we're going to sign A-Rod followed by three months of griping that we didn't?

255 - DT Drinking Party at the Championship Parade? I would think that would be better than Hot Stove Prognosticating

258 -

We aren't going to sign A-Rod, no way, no how.

We're going to trade for Miggy Cabrera and that should lead to some interesting speculation as to what we'll have to give up to get him.

260 If I'm the Marlins, I start by asking for Kershaw, LaRoche, and Kemp, and say that Kershaw is the key to the deal. I don't know how the Dodgers would respond to that, but worst case scenario is that I'm stuck with Miguel Cabrera. Boo hoo.

So, what do we do in the off season anyway?

How long does Cabrera stick at 3B? In a year, are you going to have a $200M leftfielder? Not that there's anything wrong with that, but I'd like to know he'll be at third for the next few years.

Kershaw, LaRoche and Ethier, and you've got yourself a deal!

We don't do squat. We win in a cakewalk.

264
Along with the Pierre/Ross swap.

262 Pray.

261 -

I my mind I had them asking for Kemp, LaRoche and Boxton, but you may have a point about Kershaw.

When a kid is that young, what are the odds that he throws his arm out within the next 2-3 years. Major pitching prospects are always scary that way.

262 I always found Rogers Hornsby's advice helpful.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."

263 -

What is considered Cabrera's best position?

The only likely trade for Pierre would be with a team that has a very expensive player they can't afford or don't want. If we can use the player at all, it's a great trade; if we can't, we spin him off, taking a smaller loss. It will be a hard situation to find but it's our only hope.

DH

regardless of what we have to give up to get Miguel Cabrera, they have to throw in money to pay his food bill

270 - Honestly, hitter. He's kind of a Pedro Guerrero type. Put him at third and hope no one hits it at him. Put him in the OF and hope he doesn't hurt himself. Put him at first over my dead body.

put him at third and tell him the ball is really a doughnut, he'll never miss one anywhere near him

275 - What happens when he devours said "doughnut"? He'll have to tag the runner with that ample belly, and no one wants to see that.

he'll be great at blocking runners coming into third

I'd rather have Barry Bonds in LF for money instead of trading for Piggy Miggy when you consider what it would take to get him.

the Dodgers will trade for him, convert him to a pitcher and send him to AAA

Just a thought: In April when Andrew was doing his season predictions for TrueBlue, he was pessimistic to the point of (I thought at the time) annoyance. All I could think of was how he needed to have faith that everything would turn out OK since our pitching was SOOOOOOOOOOO deep and we had some pretty good prospects lining up to play.

Fast forward to now.

Now I am the one who has trouble convincing myself that 08 will be any different than 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, or 07.

So Cabrera = a better hitting Homer Simpson?

And we want to give up Kershaw for him why again? Sounds like a perfect fit for an AL team.

278 we don't want to have a sour disposition in our clubhouse to disrupt our chemistry

280 It's good to be pessimistic, that way you aren't disappointed when things like this happen.

Just in advance, if we do next to nothing this offseason, I'll be very happy.

261
I think that Bills has more market value at this point than Kershaw because he is still 3 years from arbitration and is a proven, durable, good pitcher in the bigs.

283 yes, lets maintain the status quo with our pitching staff

Piggy Miggy LOL

281 Because he's 24 and the second best hitter in baseball.

So Adam Dunn is having knee surgery and old friend Danys Baez is having Tommy John surgery. It's that time of year when all the "playing hurt" comes home to roost.

we can use Loaiza as our setup man, Hendrikson as our closer, Hernandez as long relief...I'll bring the matches

285 Pretty much. Who should we get? Lohse? Jennings?

Having Kershaw, McDonald and Elbert as plan C this year instead of Stultoun makes the pitching several orders of magnitude better.

Now I'm just annoyed and will vent:

Schmidt=Driefort

(Had to backspace to avoid a Rule 1 Violation)

Anyone noticed how many ads Cal Ripken is in these days? I showed my wife one of them (on MLB.com) and asked her how old she thought he was. She guessed "60 something?". Without a hat on, Ripken looks like Don Zimmer.

290 oh yeah, sounds great, and we know they will all be successful because...why?

Kent=Bonds

Little=Davey Johnson

me=bitter

Wolf= Carlos Perez! it's all coming together!

Actually Santanna is the most statistically likely to have an arm problem of those mentioned in a trade.

Just seeing people toss out trade possibilities involving the Minotaur makes me bitter and I'm gonna go home now before it gets worse.

216 I wasn't suggesting we keep Pierre in CF to conform to a stereotype.

I was just marvelling at the pretty pass this signing has led us to.

So I guess Colletti watches the games only when the Dodgers are in the field. Because if his only problem with Pierre is his throwing arm...whoah daddy.

It must be the Vin Scully effect. Scully was always excited when Pierre was at bat and especially if he got on base. But he always points out when a runner takes an extra base on him.

297 or Wolf = Odaliz Perez : even worse

293 They have minor league track records? How do you plan to improve a pitching staff that allowed less runs than all but five teams in a slight hitters park?

Whose staff would you be happy with? Calling the pitching the problem is the exact same thing as calling Matt Kemp the reason the offense sucks.

Screen Jam chat had 30 comments last night. Feel free to jump on tonight. Just remember - no spoilers before shows air on the West Coast.

300 vinny is great, but is the consummate fan...pierre is fun to watch, especially when on base...just not the kind of player you typically want to build a winning team around...

that being said, doesn't he have a world series ring?

Screen Jam chat had 30 comments last night

Nary a one about "The Simpsons" or "King of the Hill". I'm just sitting down to watch them tonight.

if I had a nickel for every future star in the minors since I started following baseball, I'd be a rich man

King of the Hill was awesome from this Sunday.

306
No, you'd have about $20 at most.

I thought you were an accountant?

305 - I have responded at Screen Jam!

300. I have heard first hand (well, I guess 2nd hand) that Ned is not unhappy with Pierre's offense. But how could he be? Pierre's season was so squarely within the range of his career numbers that you'd have to be totally delusional to be disappointed if it's a given that you liked the move in the first place.

304 Danny Heep has two World Series rings. Luis Sojo has three.

Funny you guys think Vinny likes Pierre, because my impression is that he's more subtly critical of him than any Dodger I can remember.

Hmmm...
Marlins/Pierre
White Sox/Podsednik
Angels/Erstad

I think I'm starting to see a trend in the championship formula.

Hasn't every single future star come from the minors?

every year, there are lists of can't miss players, the names change, but for the most part, the results are the same...that is why there are no few real stars

and I've been following the Dodgers since the '59 series

313 yes, and the formula is "speed kills"

The point is well taken: Don't count your chickens (or Billy Ashley) before they hatch.

314 not really, current and past stars came from the minors...future stars are still down there

314 Except Dave Winfield! :-)

317 True, but with the more advanced tools we have for analyzing prospects, it's a lot easier to tell that guys like Billy Ashley and Karim Garcia will never amount to anything.

306 Surely you realize this reasoning is ridiculous. Surely you realize that some prospects are better than others. Surely you realize that some prospects, somewhere, have to be given a chance -- otherwise there wouldn't be any major league baseball players. Surely you realize that virtually every young superstar in baseball today is a product of his team's minor league farm system.

I really don't get why folks let their bitterness toward Angel Pena and Billy Ashley become a reason to dump on Clayton Kershaw or whoever. The fact that some people can't distinguish the difference between a premium prospect and a fringe prospect does not mean those differences don't exist.

321 I do realize all those things, and don't call me Shirley

312 Even on opening day, Vin criticized Pierre's throwing arm... "And we will see that," he said, as some Brewer ran on him.

315 You've been a Dodger fan since '59? Okay, then, here are the names of some Dodger prospects during that time.

Maury Wills
Frank Howard
Johnny Roseboro
Steve Garvey
Davey Lopes
Ron Cey
Bob Welch
Fernando Valenzuela
Orel Hershiser
Pedro Guerrero
Steve Sax
Mike Scioscia
Mike Piazza
Eric Karros
Raul Mondesi
Hideo Nomo

Dave Stewart
Pedro Martinez
Paul Konerko
John Wetteland

I hope I did not sound bitter by mentioning Billy Ashley. I love our prospects as much as the next guy. If I were bitter for all the times I've been disappointed by the Dodgers, I would have quit following baseball after '99.

Bart Shirley or Jim Fairy

Did anyone ever think they'd amount to anything?

312 Scully's view of the players -- which I think is the most influential voice out there, bar none, leaving Plaschke et al in the dust -- tends to be pretty even-handed. He's critical of Pierre's "first-ball swinging" and inability to take a walk. But he does seem to buy into the overall proposition that he's a good hitter, and of course his phrase "a rabbit is loose" was waiting for Pierre to wear it.

Scully's favorite right now seems to be Martin. I don't if there's anyone he dislikes, but I think he sees Kemp has having the most potential, so he's hardest on him when he screws up.

324
Where's Billy Ashley on that list?

wow...long list for 48 years...just kidding...

Who is Karim Garcia can talk to us about bitterness.

P.S. I've noticed lately that while Scully might sound old and a little befuddled at the beginning of each game, by the time you're in the 7th inning and if the game is exciting, he sounds 50 years younger. I love that guy. I hope when I'm his age I can be like that. If you start me up...

331 with that, I agree wholeheartedly

314
Fred Lynn

314 Joe Nuxhall

321 Also, for certain, the science of identifying real prospects vs. pretenders has advanced. How to project minor league stats, correct for ballpark factors, etc. is much farther along. Also, it's not just teams doing the winnowing, it's agents too. Agents will be careful in who they hype, who they'll bargain hard for so as to retain their credibility.

I've been struck by how many of the people being discussed in A and AA when I started reading DT are now on the team and living up to their advanced billing. Barring injury, it seems like prospect forecasting is more trustworthy now than even 10 years ago.

Joe Nuxhall played a very long time in the minors, actually.

I just don't get what the alternative to prospects is. I mean, I can get the "stupid prospects, they never pan out" frustration. But what's the alternative? Trading for endless series of Esteban Loaizas and Mark Hendricksons?

Also, this is a strange time to be saying prospects never pan out. How many prospects have been given significant playing time in the last 2 years?

Chad Billingsley
Jonathan Broxton
James Loney
Matt Kemp
Andre Ethier
Russell Martin

That's six for six, for crying out loud. Fans of the 2007 Dodgers should know better than anyone that prospects can and do turn out to be as good as advertised.

306 I recall Johnny Bench being tagged "can't miss." And he didn't miss. My point being anyone following the game since '59 knows potential works out some of the time.

Part of being a baseball fan is seeing potential realized. And when it happens it's glorious.

Are you T.J. Howard Fox? (love ya man) :)

335 "Also, for certain, the science of identifying real prospects vs. pretenders has advanced. How to project minor league stats, correct for ballpark factors, etc. is much farther along."

That's a really good point. If Mike Marshall, Greg Brock, and Billy Ashley had been playing today, they never would have been hyped as megaprospects because people would have been better able to see the inflation in their stats and the limitations in their game. I mean, look at the difference between the way Greg Brock was viewed in 1983 and the way, say, Delwyn Young is viewed now.

This is one reason why big deadline trades have become far less common: It's a lot easier now to tell which prospects are future stars and which ones aren't, so teams are hanging on to the really good ones.

Starting in left field for your San Francisco Giants tonight:

Fred Lewis!

Age 28 is a magic age for going from potential to star, sometimes as soon as 27. It would be nice to always have a team composed of 4 players age 28 to 33 and 4 players age 23 to 27 starting. Great players have longer primes like maybe 26 to 36.

Some teams are better at trading a player when they turn 34 and getting a potentially better one at age 21. Some teams are better at trading away a player on their downside and getting much less.

Some teams sign free agents when they are 34 to 40.

Major league debut for Mets reliever Carlos Muniz tonight.

He's a former Dirtbag and hails from the noble city of Torrance.

good game going on in Phillie & for the record I'm rooting for das411s team.

331

great observation dzzrtRatt.

Hey I made the point before he did.

Nothing quite like the nightly San Francisco starting leftfielder update.

346
It's all I've got left in this world.

347
Plus that fish blog

New post up top.

331

You got that right, bro!

331 "Befuddled" is way the wrong word. Vin makes a few mistakes, but is a long way from befuddled.

Good word though, find a correct application for it and you'll be slicker than grease.

The things you can buy for $16M:

http://tinyurl.com/yt8rm7

John Henry is gutting Frank McCourt's old Brookline, MA mansion and building an even more opulent place instead. A $16M teardown! Such wealth!

We have to beat out Milwaukee and Toronto for the #16 spot to secure our #1 draft rights. Then Ned can sign whatever high profile used up veteran that he wants. Ned doing trades is too scary a proposition.

that second Rockies run....what can you say?....video of Pierre re. that run should be mailed in brown paper packages to every member of the LA media...

Goodnight. We threw Hendricksen. When they released Tomko I thought we were serious.