I should have done more of my homework. I didn't realize the whole story behind Greenspun.

Just quickly: High Turnover = sign of a bad organization.

Broad, simplistic generalization? I'll let you decide.

I mean, I hope that's not really true, but in my experiences, that's what I've surmised up to now.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=3098341

Jerry Crasnick, ESPN.com:

We surveyed 15 general managers, assistants and other assorted personnel at the Hyatt Grand Cypress for their thoughts on the following five questions. Here are the results:

1. Where do you expect Alex Rodriguez to be playing next year?

Responses: Los Angeles Angels, 7½; New York Mets, 3; Los Angeles Dodgers, 2½; Baltimore Orioles, 1; Florida Marlins, 1.

Contract estimates ranged from a low of five years and $150 million to a high of 10 years and $300 million.

You never know when agent Scott Boras will be able to pull a $350 million rabbit out of his hat. As an American League assistant GM observed, "With Scott, what's most obvious isn't always the right answer."

No one, for example, would have identified the San Francisco Giants as a prime suitor for Barry Zito or the Seattle Mariners as the team that was going to shell out $64 million for Adrian Beltre. With Boras, there's always the potential for a wild-card contender, a dark horse or the inevitable "mystery team" to enter the equation.

But right now, all signs point toward the West Coast.

Seriously, what is Nomar thinking amidst all this talk of A-Rod and Miggy? Does he feel completely left out? Would he just want to be traded at this point?

From last thread: 124. Bluebleeder87
Cabrera's a hall of famer, in his prime. His eating hasnt affected his hitting.

It hasn't affected his hitting YET! The guy is 24 & is already over weight, you really have to be eating unhealthy food to play a demanding sport & still be chubby. Plus it just looks really bad lack of discipline bad! man, you guys should have seen him during the winter leauge, ugh!

ps He is an awesome hitter but the lack of discipline will catch up to him, bank on it. One more note, obviously he can change his ways & take his god givin talents more seriously & be better for it.

3
Is Boras really less predictable than other agents? Do we really have a better idea where players with other agents will go?

6 - "With Scott, what's most obvious isn't always the right answer."

That doesn't mean that that isn't true of some other agents as well. I don't think the person being quoted is trying to make a grand statement about Scott vs. other agents. Scott is really the only agent relevant to the A-Rod conversation.

4
Nomer doesn't have a leg to stand on to complain. Literally

7
If that were true, the quotee would have said "With agents, what's most obvious isn't always the right answer."

That isn't what the quotee said.

The author of the article also appears to think "Scott" is relatively unpredictable.

With Boras, there's always the potential for a wild-card contender, a dark horse or the inevitable "mystery team" to enter the equation

Is it really so different with other agents?

5
Maybe's he's willing to see the error of his ways.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2944052

6
I've always found Boras to be the most predictable. He will take his clients to FA and they will sign with whoever offers them the best contract.

9 - I'm sure it's different with some and not so different with others.

3 a-rod to the angels does make a lot of sense.

1. chone figgins hit 3 homers last year as their primary 3b.
2. they just replaced stoneman, suggesting change is afoot.
3. boras is an O.C. businessman; a-rod is his marquee attraction.

the list just writes itself . . .

5-- Babe Ruth was fat too.
Didnt affect his hitting.

"We aint selling jeans here"..

In an event that nicely ties together some recent Dodger Thoughts themes, noted Yankee fan Bruce Springsteen will be giving a solo acoustic concert on Friday to benefit Joe Torre's "Safe At Home" Foundation. If you're in the NYC area and have $3,500 burning a hole in your pocket, this seems like a pretty good way to use it.

www.joetorre.org

Its time for Saguaros Baseball!

http://www.mlb.com/mlb/events/winterleagues/multimedia/?league=afl

It appears Hu has been shut down due to a strained hamstring. Blake Dewitt has been looking pretty good. Greg Miller not so much.

I got LAT'd.

113- I would honestly want to take a bat to Torre or anyone else for that matter whom felt it was in their best interest to go to bat for Nomore Garciapopup as Dodger third basemen.

With the Nomar/Loney/Laroche saga, the Pierre debacle, and the Tomdrickson fiasco lingering from last year Ned has his work cut out for him. Long live ARONS!

14 - There's always exceptions to the rule, but reading TC's link re-assures my thoughts.

4 - no kidding. As a fan of the Dodgers I really hope he has another bounce back year in him.

If you're in the NYC area and have $3,500 burning a hole in your pocket

I was wondering what that smell was.

Has the fate of Mariano Duncan been discussed here? I know he doesn't know if he's coming back yet but it sure seems like a good idea. A) Someone needs to be able to point out to Torre which guy is James Loney. B) Colletti needs somebody downstairs that he knows and can trust. C) There are precious few people in the dugout who know anything about these players and their history.
One interesting issue, the new guys are making more than 3X what the old guys were making. If they don't change that, it should make for some interesting plane rides.

16 this sure is a long commercial break.

Has anyone already mentioned this? The LA Times website, www.latimes.com, is a broken mess in Firefox.

20

I've heard he is sticking around. He also throws batting practice to a lot of the kids so your right he definitely knows the youngsters better than anybody at this point.

22. Works fine for me, and I only use Firefox. I did notice the site redesign this morning, though. No more times.com, just "Los Angeles Times" now.

24. http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-hp-editors-note-110607,0,2665140.story?coll=la-home-center

16
Thanks for the link. I had gotten it in my head that the games were going to be on ESPN and was wondering why I couldn't find them until I saw your link.

DodgerDugout Dot Com says there's a chance Jose Molina will sport a Dodger uni. It doesn't sound like a bad idea, I'm all for it.

22 - It works fine on my version 2.0.0.9.

20 - Looks like Duncan will be on the the coaching staff. Duncan was on the Yankees (I think) when Torre first started there. I've heard his named mentioned as being "in." My question mark is Mazzone. I say lock him up!

24 29 Really? The page at the link in 25 displays fine, but other pages don't.

16
DeWitt batting cleanup but playing 1st.

29 Yes, Duncan did play for Torre in NY.

Is the feed working for you on MLB.com?

My L.A Times link works fine, with the new layout & everything.

33 is in reference to 31

33
Balky

36 it just came on!

14
How do you know?

31 it looks like dewitt is actually playing 3rd and batting 7th. Also X. Paul is batting 6th and in left.

38
Babe Ruth, circa 1916
http://tinyurl.com/26raxc

Babe Ruth, early 1920s
http://tinyurl.com/ywa9hk

Babe Ruth, 1927
http://tinyurl.com/2a8c5k

Babe Ruth, early 1930s
http://tinyurl.com/29qpo3

Hearing all this trade talk, I can't help but think of the Pedro for Offerman and Konerko for Shaw trades. I know this is a little different, but is it really?

I think it's fine to say that portliness didn't prevent Babe Ruth from being a great hitter.

But that's different from saying that it didn't affect his hitting.

Pedro for Offerman

My name isn't J4P...

40

That proves nothing.

But even at his biggest, Babe Ruth would look like a pipsqueak if you put him next to David Ortiz or Albert Pujols.

44
I wasn't trying to prove anything. I was just showing pictures of Babe Ruth through time so people could judge whether or not he was "fat."

And Babe Ruth's girth has always been overestimated. There is also a belief that he was not well-conditioned and that's not true.

40- should be edited to say Delino Deshields for Pedro, forgive me. (I always get those two confused. It's the whole mediocre infielder thing)

so is Dewitt starting to learn how to walk this fall?

he walked today and scored a run. Paul just flyed out. Dewitt up.

Paul's stance at the plate looks alot better then it did when he was drafted back in 2003.

Dewitt reaches on a K!!!

44 - I think it goes towards the fact that he was a lot bigger than the average American male in the 1920s. He did get bigger towards the end of his career, but most guys do, and that's the image that most of us have of him.

There is also a belief that he was not well-conditioned and that's not

although there were times in his life were he didn't take care of his self, I do believe he took his sport very seriously & worked hard at it, I read a few books on him when I played hooky, hookie (sp) instead of being in school, so yeah.

If Ruth had taken care of his body better, there is little doubt he would have had better numbers. How much better is the question. Who knows.

Baseball-Reference lists Babe Ruth's height and weight as 6'2" and 215 lbs.

Then again, David Ortiz is listed as 6'4" and 230 and Albert Pujols at 6'3" and 210.

Babe Ruth did get heavy toward the end of his career. But he was still good. Barry Bonds is pretty heavy now regardless of what you think he's taking. But he's still good.

Aging heavy guys like Ruth and Bonds (or even Ortiz) are hurt more on defense than offense in my opinion.

54
It's scary to think what BETTER numbers for Babe Ruth would have looked like. Because they are still mighty scary looking 80 years after the fact.

The guy is listed on baseball reference as 6'2", 215. By contemporary standards, that's not very big. But he played in an era when weight training was thought to be bad for baseball conditioning. He also had the advantage of being the first ball player who didn't need to have an off season gig.

He might have done better than 51% in SBs.

58 - I'm thinking he didn't get a lot of chances to run hitting in front of Gerhig.

It's all the stories about him eating hot dogs. The anti-frankfurter faction has poisoned all discourse about Babe Ruth's physique.

55
They still have Miggy at 185. What is the point of these if they are never updated?

60- Is it some sort of a Jewish conspiracy?

After thinking about Babe Ruth and looking at some of the various other great hitters in baseball history, most players had a nickname.

Babe Ruth: Sultan of Swat, The Bambino

Ted Williams: The Kid, The Thumper, The Splendid Splinter

Lou Gehrig: The Iron Horse or Biscuit Pants(?!?!)

Mickey Mantle: The Mick, The Commerce Comet, or Muscles

Now why doesn't Barry Bonds have a nickname? Does he have one I don't know about?

55
The heroine of Josh's story might be able to shed some light on how much Babe weighed by the year 1930.

Orenduff pitching. Looks really good so far throwing lots of strikes.

63 - A hole? Cheater?

Now why doesn't Barry Bonds have a nickname?

Bonds*

Pujols is also pretty weak in the nickname department. Baseball Reference lists four (Prince Albert, Phat Albert, The Machine, or El Hombre), but the first one has a rather unfortunate connotation, the second one is really stupid, and the last two are phony nicknames that I've never heard used even once.

63 Most of Barry's nicknames are Rule 1 violations. ;)

There's always the old "Barroid" standby.

65 All right I take it back. 4 singles in a row.

63 Per Ray Robinson's biography of Lou Gehrig:

"In Gehrig's time ball players were encumbered in heavy, sweaty wool uniforms that were about as chic as old bloomers hanging on clotheslines. Suited up, Gehrig looked bovine, unathletic. His appearance earned him the uncomely nickname of 'Biscuit Pants.'"

68 - Winnie the Pujols

71 I guess it would not had done Mrs. Gehrig's legacy nor Teresa Wright any good to call Gehrig "Biscuit Pants" in the film "The Pride of the Yankees."

Instead, they invented (as far as I can tell), an incident where Gehrig trips over some bats and thus is called "Tanglefeet." The device does introduce Wright's character in the film and starts them down the road to romance.

Will Carroll says he doesn't expect the Yankees to offer A-Rod arbitration. I just read today that Cashman said he would, but I don't remember where, now.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=664

74 Why wouldn't they offer him arbitration?

I feel that if Ty Cobb didn't grip his bat the way he did he could have hit a few more dingers. He use to grip the bat separating his hands about 3 inches, I don't think I've ever heard of any other player (even from that era) do that. the way he is pictured here is the way he use to grip the bat in real games [ http://tinyurl.com/2hzqtt ] He talks about it at length in his book. I forget the name of the book but it was also made into a full length motion picture.

74 - Baseball Musings passed along an item saying they would offer it.

Wouldn't the Yankees have to be complete idiots to not offer A-Rod arbitration?

74 They are going to but only to receive the compensatory draft picks apparently.

http://tinyurl.com/2mr2x4

73 I think it was "tanglefoot"

Now Hammes is pitching.

I get a perverse satisfaction that Giambi and Arod never won a championship as a Yankee and that David Eckstein has two.

Looking at Juan Pierre's similar batters on baseball reference, the nicknames "Skeeter" and "Chicken" kind of work well. I'm not so sure Slappy McPopup will stick... but you never know.

76 Cobb used that grip when standing at the plate, but never swung that way. He always moved his hands back together before swinging. It was just a batting stance tic, like Joe Morgan's elbow pump or Sheffield's bat wiggle.

I get a perverse satisfaction that Giambi and Arod never won a championship as a Yankee and that David Eckstein has two

I'm with you on the first part of your perversion.

Hammes looks awful.

86
Steve Johnson in the HWL is the only Dodger pitching prospect who has made a positive impression in the winter leagues.

84

I must have missed interpret it I could have sworn he said he gripped the bat that way. I've been wrong before though.

From Wikipedia>>>Leonard accused Wood and Cobb of betting on a Tiger-Cleveland game played in Detroit on September 25, 1919, in which they allegedly coerced a Detroit victory to win the bet. Leonard claimed proof existed in letters written to him by Cobb and Wood.63 Judge Kenesaw Mountain Landis held a secret hearing with Cobb and Speaker as well as former pitcher and outfielder Joe Wood.63 A second secret meeting amongst the AL directors led to Cobb and Speaker resigning with no publicity

___________________________________

Some things never change.

89 At first glance, that looked like "Judge Kershaw"

Career postseason numbers

Little Davey Eckstein .278/.333/.335
Alex "Choke" Rodgriguez .279/.361/.483

91 The extra g was for "Great!".

91 Eckstein is SO a "Ned" type of player.

85
I get a perverse satisfaction that David Eckstein started at SS and won not only two rings but a WS MVP award to boot and that it drives some people bonkers.

94 I don't think Eckstein drives anybody bonkers. I like David Eckstein.

His cult followers drive people bonkers.

94
You're a sick, sick man.

87 "Steve Johnson in the HWL is the only Dodger pitching prospect who has made a positive impression in the winter leagues."

Cory Wade, who seems to never get any respect, is doing quite well in the AFL.

97
Your right, I almost added him. I like him, he made my top 15 pitching prospects.

94
ToyCannon and I are of one mind when it comes to Mr. Eckstein.

Vinny's favorite player is hitting .524 for Team USA.

"Boy that kid can hit." - Vin

100

Mel Ott is alive & well? do tell... [drum beat]

99 Eckstein's career numbers against the Dodgers in 185+ plate appearances, .285/.346/.360

100
BP has him listed at 5'8" and 210. Good Lord, that's the same as Tiki Barber. Is it just me or does he look about 185?

The Clippers have me believing in LA basketball again. Is it too early to call them the best team in the league?

101 :)

104

Yes, in 128 pt font.

They're off to a great start, and I mean great! It's fun to watch, and all this without their two best players.

but!

It's too early to make any judgments. The Lakers got off to a big start last year, and they didn't finish so hot.

The Lakers, btw, look a lot better than they did a year ago.

I have a radical suggestion: The Dodgers should try to put together an entire lineup of players 5'9 and under (bring back Cody Ross!).

That lineup would be scrappy enough to make a deep run in the playoffs.

Eckstein has shown that small players can at least compete in MLB. I've been hoping that his example, and others like him, would have finally opened the doors to female players. Sadly we're still in the stone age of inequality when it comes to letting women play "our" game.

This is the headline I just read on dodgers.com:

Dodgers after pitching, big bat this offseason

Can we just copy and paste that headline to every year's offseason Dodger report? Really, this is getting old...

107 chad curtis could be bench coach.

And I thought last offseason was scary....I hate the fact that I don't trust my own team to do the right thing. As if all of a sudden winning for the now will work when it hasnt in 20 years.

career=
.312 .344 .496 .839 Kemp
.313 .388 .542 .929 Cabrerra

When factoring in defense, speed, age and additional players (2 of our good ones) and then money for contracts is it worth it?

Dustin Pedroia is the new black..er David Eckstein.

110 rats. curtis stands a mammoth 5' 10". he just seemed shorter.

109 Doesn't that headline apply to about 27 other teams?

111
...especially when you consider that Cabrera is only under control for two years. I would think only an extension with fitness bonuses would make that trade worthwhile.

Would the Humongous Dodger All-Stars be able to beat the Midget Dodger All-Stars? They'd have Frank Howard, Darryl Strawberry, Don Drysdale, Mike Marshall (non-crazy version), Derek Lowe, and Mark Hendrickson, among others.

111 Cabrera's ~.330/.415/.566 over the last two years is a much more relevant number.

111

2007 BB Rate:
Kemp 5%
Cabrera 12%

2007 ISO:
Kemp .178
Cabrera .275

Despite the weight gain, Cabrera's defense at 3B appears to be just below AVG. He makes an error every 2 weeks- big deal. http://tinyurl.com/yr74rv

Still I would hate to see our OF absent another deal. Ethier/Pierre/Delwyn? If we can sign A Jones then I'd rather hold on to Kershaw than Kemp.

We could just sign Mini-Ditka and go undefeated.

109- I liked the Pierre bashing at the end. Pierre is very small in stature and it must have been hard, but im glad somebody found him hiding under the proverbial rug. Ned hasnt taken enough heat for that signing if im the Beer Baron.

There are succincter ways of saying that Eckstein plays like a girl, but I like 108 .

121
I am officially adding succincter to my Microsoft Word Dictionary...

111
You might want to check out Juan Encarnacion's numbers after the same number of at bats that Matt Kemp has had.

108 I'm sure any female pitcher that can throw the ball 95 miles an hour would be welcome on a MLB roster.

Having Miggy would be awesome, I love watching him hit and he is a great, great hitter. Manny/Puljos level for me and is still very young...Just not sure if it's awesome out of the exspense of LaRoache and Kemp.

Maybe I am too close on this one and that I over value Kemp. I just haven't seen anything like him come out of our farm since Mondesi.

2007

Cabrera: VORP:71.4 Dewan:-24 Total: 47.6
Kemp (numbers doubled to reflect full season): VORP: 46.8 Dewan: Unknown, let's just say average for sake of argument.

Now of course, Kemp isn't going to hit .330 over a full year, so you have to factor that in, but right now Kemp for Cabrera straight up is probably a fair trade.

122- Probably better that you not; it looks like an American Barbarism. I just assumed it was a cromulent word.

Succincter says "what?"

128
Heh, I thought the same thing.

Good news! Remember the thrill you got when buying video of baseball games back in 2006? MLBAM wants you to relive the magic!

http://yro.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=07/11/07/2014253

123 Juan Encarnacion first 706 AB's

.212 .316 .394 .710 11 games
.354 .561 .915 .915 40 games
.255 .287 .450 .736 133 games

128 129 Yup.

.212 .316 .394 .710
.329 .354 .561 .915
.255 .287 .450 .736

sorry bout that.

109 Gurnick goes on to write:
The [Nomar and Pierre] moves were puzzling, because, while Garciaparra was coming off a Comeback Player of the Year season, he had a history of injuries, and his signing blocked the path of top first-base prospect James Loney, who eventually forced his way into the lineup and forced Garciaparra across the diamond to third.

but apparently the end of that was chopped off:

... which numerous baseball pundits have termed the Dodger's positional "black hole".

118--Putting Cabrera in LF should A-Rod sign with the Dodgers would be ok too.

111- Kemp's ok, and if the Dodgers were a small market team it would probably be better to keep 3 youngsters than go after Miggy, but with the Dodgers payroll they should be after him and A-Rod.

Plus, Kemp's ISO numbers havent been great at any level. He doesnt have the plate discipline of a LaRoche.

135
I wonder how everyone on this blog would react to ARod signing with us at $300 million and Miggy in LF.

But also without LaRoche, Kemp, and Kershaw. I'm not sure that I would be able to process a development like that for at least 2-3 months.

I would handicap that set of events at about 300:1.

Chasing A-Rod makes more sense to me than trading for Miguel Cabrera because it only costs you draft picks rather than blue chip prospects or major leaguers.

It will cost much more to sign A-Rod than the 10 mil Miggy is projected to get next year, but there is no guarantee that Cabrera would stick around. Also, if he's a free agent next year anyway, why not play LaRoche a year and THEN go after a FA 3rd baseman if Andy isn't the real deal? Plus Nomar will be getting paid, he'd get a shot to at least hold down the position until his contract is up.

A-Rod changes the whole scenario, but Miggy doesn't make as much sense to me.

Gurnick's idiocy knows no bounds. What's the point of bringing up Russell Martin is fantasy trade talks for Cabrera? It's just stupid.

Is Piggy's, er Miggy's weight issue accompanied by a reputation of "poor work ethic"? If so, I wouldn't expect Ned to be interested.

126 Yeah but Dewan's number is plays not runs. How about this?

Kemp 2.5 WARP (call it 5.0 full season)

Cabrera age 22- 6.9 WARP
Cabrera age 23- 10.6 WARP
Cabrera age 24- 9.7 WARP

AROD last 3 years: 10.5, 5.2, 11.0

Cabrera's LF defense was Manny/Dunn level 2 years and 50 lbs. ago.

Cabrera's ~.330/.415/.566

Putting up a .566 with 81 of your games in big park like Florida is even more impressive. I'd assume, without looking at the numbers, that Florida's park really suppressed homers.

138
Silly Rabbit, Joe Torre is in town. Trade Russel for the slugger and sign Posada to silly contract. Joe doesn't even know who Martin is.

ToyCannon: 3-0. Cutino was on fire last night. Kaman isn't the same Kaman either. He doesn't look lost on defense, and he's been cleaning up the boards and attacking the basket like never before. I'm cautiously optimistic.

My buddies and I are eyeing the Dec 4th game vs Milwaukee as our first game. It's a Tuesday, should be a fairly light crowd, let's us upgrade our seats easily.

I don't expect us to win in IND or DET, but I'll take a 1-2 trip right now. Although we can still steal one more on the road to make it a great trip.

136--It'd be akin to getting Shaq/Kobe in one off-season.

Miggy/Arod in 1 off-season---yeah it'll never happen but its fun to think about.

136 I don't know, but I do know what I'll be doing when I next get around to playing MLB 2007. :)

137--Miggy's not eligible for free agency till after the 2009 season.

Did everybody remember to vote for Steve Lyons for the Ford C. Frick Award? (Commonly but incorrectly referred to as the "broadcasters' wing of the Hall of Fame.")

http://web.baseballhalloffame.org/awards/frick_2007/vote.jsp

147
I voted for Al Downing.

144
Talk about being the #1 franchise in LA again...

I would be, shall we say, happy with the following lineup:

Furcal
Martin
Miggy
ARod
Kent
Loney
Ethier
Pierre

Dear God we would score some runs...

Forget Miggy; let's go after Evan Longoria. He'll be starter worthy come April.

149
Seriously, I would take that whole team for my NL Fantasy League.

Best 3B, Best LF, Best 2B (offense), top 5 1B, best C, Pierre for SB, top 5 SS, avg. RF.

I would take on all comers with that team...

Jon:

My brother moved to the Austin area this summer and took a teaching job at Pflugerville High, the school where they shoot Friday Night Lights. He says they use the school band and footage of their high school football team. A few teachers were in the pilot, but not used regularly.

The school and town are only twenty miles outside Austin, not the longer distance the fictious Dillon (sp?) is portrayed on the show. Coach Taylor would have been able to commute to TMU if they used the real Pflugerville as the town in the show.

151 et al. And I'm sure your fantasy team would be great. I'd like that fantasy team, too. But for a real franchise carrying players over from year to year, a limited budget, etc., I'd far rather have our cheaper players who are nearly as good and very well may get as good or better along with Kershaw and money to get top-flight pitchers as they come, rather than having no one in the pipeline as getting Cabrera would undoubtedly mean.

149 I cannot think of a scenario possible whereby both A-Rod and Miggy would be on our team next year. One of them, if we're lucky, but we wouldn't have the means to get both of them.

I'm still in the sign A-Rod camp, but I would think he'd favor an American League team.

122 The gastroenterologist poet will be happy you've come up with a word that rhymes with 'sphincter.'

153 154
Ahhh...back to the reality where Pedro Feliz is privately on Ned's radar screen.

156 reality sucks

143
http://www.truebluela.com/story/2007/11/7/105249/606
http://www.clipsnation.com/

The best thing to happen to Kaman might be the EB injury. He has to be the guy in the post, and so far he's been up to it. He has the talent, I saw it in 2005/2006 but last year was just a lost year.

This is the Cutino that I remember. Who was the imposter playing the last two years?

Brevin Knight is better then Sam Cassel right now. Sam may not like it but Brevin should be getting most of the minutes. Until he gets hurt, he'll probably have the best Assist/Turnover ratio since the days of Mark Jackson.

Buster Olney claims that the Marlins asked for Laroche, Kershaw, and Kemp for Cabrera.

156 That made me chuckle. Then it made me sigh.

I actually like Feliz, but you are totally correct. Ned would make a great Target shopper, checking out the $1 bin carefully before he goes shopping. Thinking carefully about what his budget is while cruising the store, and drawn like a magnet to a fridge right back to the $1 bin only to settle for a t-shirt and pants that were stylish three years ago, but now available at a reasonable price compared to the high end stuff at the mall.

159
Yeah, I saw that. Can't say that I blame them. If I was giving him up, that is about what I would want.

155 "gastroenterologist poet"

Gutsy.

151 - There's a guy in Philly who disagrees with your 2B ranking.

155- The psychiatrist down the hall was getting sick of its always slant-rhyming with "head-shrinker."

149 Plus, we would have Santana pitching. Because Steve Phillips says so.

154 - If you get ARod, and you were steadfastly determined to trade some of the kids (like Kemp and LaRoche), I'd prefer Santana to Cabrera.

160
That sounds like me. I once went to buy good tires for my wife's car at a dealership. I walked out with a car I didn't need and I skimped on the tires for her car.

I needed the tires and I cheaped out. (Hendy)
I wanted the car and ended up with a stupid payment. (Pierre)

163
True...

Watching ESPN right now, the report from the GM meetings is that the Bums are "in the best position to trade for Caberra". Also, they said that the Yankees talked to the Padres about getting Jake Peavy. Even if it meant seeing him twice in the World Series, I would love to see that trade, if only because it means not seeing him 5-7 times during the regular season.

158 Thanks for the links. Brevin's defense has made a difference in crunch time the last two games. I still like Sam's leadership in a game where we have to climb back into it in the 4th quarter. Sam can score.

I loved seeing Sam gather the team together after the final buzzer yesterday. I know he wants to be on the floor, but he is leading the team regardless.

I hope Kaman can keep it up, especially when EB is back. I remember Elden Campbell being a much better player when Shaq wasn't on the floor.

Didn't Cutino have surgery?

man, the only thing worse than many of the 'rumors' on yahoo sports are the comments that come after them. yikes.

speaking of yikes, Miggy in LF. no way will we see that again, esp if his waistline looks more and more belushi-ish.

On the bright side, we are about to dodge the bullet that is Mike Lowell in a Dodger uniform, at least according to ESPN.

172

That right? Thank goodness! But how so?

Whoop! I got it... thanks though KG

http://tinyurl.com/2sprqd

M Cabrera is destined to be a first baseman in the National League, or a DH in that other league they have that I don't particularly like myself all that much.

172
I actually would have liked that move only if LaRoche could have been spun into Miggy or an arm like Santana/Haren/Kazmir.

I think Mike Lowell is the Gary Gaetti of the early 21st Century.

You might get a great offensive year out of him, you might get 8 homers and a .228 average. You might eat his contract and watch him rebound for a rival while you pay him to do it.

176 - I think you have to wait to see the deal Lowell signs before you start to regret missing out on him.

Buster Olney claims that the Marlins asked for Laroche, Kershaw, and Kemp for Cabrera.

I can understand asking for Kemp & LaRoche...but Kershaw? Out of their minds. Maybe Scott Elbert or James McDonald.

152 Is the assumption that TMU is a stand-in for UT?

169

I would not want to face Peavy in the World Series for two games. I'd rather just take SD out of contention and move on to the playoffs.

179 - The Yankees offer probably tops out at Ian Kennedy plus an OFer (Jose Tabata or Melky Cabrera). I see absolutely no reason to offer those 3 players for Miguel.

182
Is it just me or do teams ask more from LA than other teams when discussing trades?

157- It bites too.

177
Why would you say that? He's really only had the down year in 2005, other then that he has been a consistent performer. If we didn't aleady have LaRoche I'd been more then happy to have Lowell on the team. He's the anti Jeff Kent.

An enjoyable and quick reading biography of Babe Ruth can clear up questions about his weight, exercise habits and off-season activities among other things inquiring minds want to know. Answers are his weight fluctuated dramatically over time, he became a convert mid-career, and he was frequently very busy barnstorming to make more money. For reference, The Big Bam by Leigh Montville, http://tinyurl.com/yrjfed.

Permian High, the real high school featured in the book "Friday Night Lights," is hundreds of miles away from Austin or any other major city. The closest major college would be Texas Tech, 140 miles away.

My high school used to face either Permian or another school in that area, Midland Lee, in the state playoffs every year. Needless to say, we got our butts kicked every time.

185 Plus 2005 was pretty much a BABIP related fluke, though he did lose a bit of power. Then again, that power loss was probably permanent, but masked by moving from Florida to Fenway.

185/188 - I'm still not giving him 4 years and $50M, which is the neighborhood I expect his deal to be in.

189 Nor would I. He's a solid solution for a team with nothing at third, but not more than that.

Last year during the Zito sweepstakes, I remember some talk about California having a 7-year limit on "personal services contracts". Anyone know if this is a) relevant and b) even true? If true, would this put a hard cap on the amount of years LA (or SF) could offer ARod?

I haven't heard an A-Rod/Philly connection. They need a 3rd baseman, not to mention that him and Ryan Howard would produce more power than all get out.

192
I think because the Phillies really need to go after pitching, so they can't afford to fix that and get A-Rod.

188 Lowell in 2007 had a LD% of 18.1% and a BABIP .337. 2005 was 20.7% and .248. Are they close to equally flukey in opposite directions? If so, should we have expected him to be about a 105ish OPS+ guy the last three years, instead of 77, 104, 124? (2006: 21.6% .287)

190 I agree.

191 It appears that is indeed true...
http://www.ivanhoffman.com/personal.html

...although I can't speak to how relevant it is. The law seems written to prevent indefinite servitude of a performer or entertainer to a particular company, though. The link above implies that the person cannot be bound to serve more than seven years, but can, if they so choose, serve more than that amount. So perhaps a player could be offered a seven-year contract with a series of player options at the end of it.

Mets and Red Sox meeting with Boras:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/11/07/arod.sweepstakes/index.html

People at ESPN were speculating that the Red Sox were meeting with Boras out of courtesy.

Help create a market for A-Rod. Perhaps the Mets are doing the same.

196 Meanwhile, Yankees GM Brian Cashman confirmed reports in Newsday and the New York Post that he would be offering salary arbitration next month to Rodriguez. But Cashman said he had no expectation of Rodriguez accepting that offer, which would tie him to the Yankees for 2008.

Cashman explained that he'll make the offer to win the compensatory draft choices, knowing full well that there's zero chance Rodriguez would accept the offer.

And that answers that question.

Someone earlier said Kemp hasn't shown good ISOs through the minors.

His career ISOp is 208 and career ISOd is 48.

The power is excellent and the discipline is lackluster but that could be attributed to his rawness as a baseball player.

183 - No it's not just you. I see that also. I think other teams see the Bums stocked farm team and knowing Ned's tendency to overpay for mediocre veteran players, they try to shoot for the moon with the Dodgers. When the Dodgers get wise and don't fall for bad deals, other teams lower their expectations and settle for less from other less-stocked teams.

Boras FA client list:
ARod
Andruw Jones
David Newhan
Corey Patterson
Brad Wilkerson
Guillermo Quiroz
Kyle Lohse
Kenny Rogers
Jeff Weaver
Bruce Chen
Eric Gagne
Dan Kolb

Theoretically at least, any team meeting with Boras could be talking about any of these players. In theory.

194 Pretty much. It also helps that he is the perfect type of hitter for Fenway.

I wonder what Gagne wants...or what Boras wants for Gagne.

156 Where does it say anywhere that Ned is interested in Pedro Feliz? This is one of those "He's so dumb, he probably wants Pedro Feliz" comments that has blossomed into a rumor, right?

Would Feliz even be an upgrade over Nomar? I'd rather have Andy LaRoche play 3rd and hit .220 while learning the ropes than have to watch Feliz.

Feliz is a Shea Hillenbrand kind of acquisition. It's August, you're in third place, your regular third baseman is in jail, you've got nobody ready in the farm system...that's when you sign Pedro Feliz.

203 At least two of these three things.

a) as much money as possible
b) escargots
c) The Canadiens winning the Stanley Cup.

199
The power is promising the plate discipline is worrisome. Without the discipline he's just another 850 OPS corner outfielder hacker, with it, he moves into elite territory. If Kemp is the centerpiece of the deal that would bring back the best young hitter in baseball, would you be willing to bet he learns discipline instead of betting on the sure thing?

206 - Yes. Kemp is still raw, only been playing a few years which makes his stats from last year even more remarkeable. This year will be his "can he make his adjustments to the inevitable pitcher's adjustments to him" type of year.

"It's August, you're in third place, your regular third baseman is in jail"

Is this where we're supposed to start making Pedro Guerrero jokes?

195 - thanks.

204 - Feliz is, at least, a top notch defender. I'd prefer him to Shea and Nomar.

201

Isn't Alex Cora a Boras guy also?

Cora's not a FA.

to retire or not to retire [ http://tinyurl.com/2eko8l ] it looks like the final curtain has fallen. or maybe not.

206 I couldn't follow back far enough but I assume you mean Cabrera. I have to admit you are right about a sure thing, and I usually agree with you, but it is more important to me to keep Kemp, and have a Dodger system player. Just the way I am.

What is the most likely scenario regarding Cabrera? I hope Billinsley and Kemp are off the table. Trading Ethier (a 4th outfielder), LaRoche + top pitching prospect seems reasonable and probably enough talent to get it done.

The way I see it, at least 1 of those 3 prospects will probably fizzle. And although all have talent, Miggy is probably the best young hitter not named Holliday.

Dream scenario? Grab Cabrera, throw him in LF (his natural position), and sign A-Rod. That team becomes the best in the NL.

79 74 They are going to but only to receive the compensatory draft picks apparently.

>> If a Type-A-rated player such as A-Rod rejects arbitration, the team losing the free agent is rewarded with the new signing team's first-round pick (as long as the signing team finished with one of the majors' 15 best records the year before) and a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds. <<

And the beauty of all that is the Dodgers can sign A-Rod and not even lose their top draft pick.

I have been basically nuetral about A-Rod because on the plus side, he is what he is and great, but on the minus side I totally despise long contracts ( see JP,O. Perez and others). But if Boras has miscalculated and there isn't the demand, I could see paying less (say~ about 25mil OR more; say 40mil, but three years),I wouldn't balk.

That said, I really would rather try LaRoche, low salaries, and buying great pitching.

Agree or Disagree: Under Torre Dodgers win the NL West

>> Now that Torre is aboard expect the Dodgers to be aggressive in trying to really improve for next season. They would not have pursued Torre if they didn't have plans to go out and spend some money and make some significant trades in an attempt to get back to the top of their division. <<

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21671841

Check out Larry King, he's gone for the NedCo black shirt, white tie look. Must have watched the coronation.

Now that Torre is aboard expect the Dodgers to be aggressive in trying to really improve for next season

If Torre is such a great manager, why do we need to "really improve"...?

214 Unless Piggy Miggy is a two-year rental, the 2010 payroll will have at least $50M committed to ARod and Cabrera. Might be a tad constraining.

Anybody up for another Jake Gittes movie? Sounds like Jack Nicholson might be.

For the record, I liked The Two Jakes. It's not great, but I liked it.

Players' attention key for Torre

>> The Dodgers' amalgamation of kids and vets last year imploded because Grady Little, a nice man who believed mature men could check themselves, tried to straddle the age gap and never shook the club up emotionally when it needed shaking. <<

http://www.presstelegram.com/sports/ci_7390245

David Pinto's take on the Marlins vs. Miguel Cabrera:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21675597/

Cabrera will become either the next Rickey Henderson or Barry Bonds. The Athletics traded Henderson away after his age 25 season, allowing the Yankees to capture most of Henderson's peak value. The Pirates took Bonds to arbitration three years in a row, then saw him walk and their franchise never has recovered.

221 Jack's getting a little long in the tooth. Would it have to be titled "About Gittes"?

214 Miggy is way better than Holliday.

In other news, Kaman pulled down 22 rebounds to lead the Clips to win #4!

224 It would be set in the late 1960's, so his teeth are of appropriate length.

220 - It is not unreasonable to want the Dodgers to devote 50 million to Cabrera and A-Rod. First, they are in their respective primes and worth the money. Second, the Dodgers are a large market team that hasn't done anything for 20 years.

There is no sense encouraging a youth movement (and thus low salaries) unless those young players are coupled with proven big-money veterans -- in their prime -- in an effort to be competitive every year.

215 D's49---I feel a kinship w/both you and Old D's fan, but I do draw some lines. Let the d's spend tons of money but don't do trades. The D's have no one they will get full value for and have revealed an inability to get the better of any trade.

"Chinatown" is one of the greatest movies ever made.

"The Two Jakes" is ... not that.

Angels Admit Desire to Sign A-Rod

>> The Los Angeles Angels are baseball's exception: They openly admit they'd love to sign Alex Rodriguez. The Angels had a meet-and-greet with A-Rod's agent, Scott Boras, at the general managers' meetings. The New York Mets also spoke with Boras but won't say whether they're in or out of the competition.

Tony Reagins, who just took over as the Angels' GM, had glowing words for A-Rod.

"We had an initial conversation with Scott, and it was introductory," he said Wednesday. "He probably makes any team that he's a part of better."

Reagins said if talks progressed, the Angels would welcome a chance to speak with Rodriguez. <<

## On Tuesday, each general manager stood up during their meeting and stated what their offseason goals were. Many mentioned specific players they were making available. The idea was suggested by Boston's Theo Epstein and Florida's Larry Beinfest, co-chairs of this year's meeting. ##

http://tinyurl.com/2tyqwv

191 /195 - Actually, most states have a 7 year rule (or something similar). It's part of what's called the Statute of Frauds.

Here's the basic legal history: the courts over the years have established certain rules for contracts, particularly dealing with personal services; among these is that any personal service contract for a period of more than a year requires a writing (most employment contracts don't require this because you're an "at will" employee and can technically quit whenever you want with or without notice); the courts also decided some time ago that a personal service contract could not exceed a certain length (it may have had something to do with the 13th Amendment, or it could have been basic economics, I don't remember which); eventually, most of the rules created by the courts were codified by the legislatures in their respective states (with some changes).

Generally speaking, there are a couple of ways around the 7 year limit. The most basic is the collective bargaining agreement - it could govern, or the courts could weigh it in considering whether it violates the statute. Another is what is called a "choice of law" provision - basically, the parties agree that the contract is governed by the laws of another state (this is usually used when the parties are from different states). Or the parties could structure the deal in a way that makes the contract renewable after 7 years (probably a mutual or player option under the baseball CB).

Really, this would only be an issue if the player decided to sue to get out of the contract. It's possible that a court could enforce the contract, even though it violates the statute of frauds (though not likely) because of the nature of the parties and the industry.

Sorry for the long legal post, but every once in a while you get one in your wheelhouse and you gotta swing for the fences.

On Tuesday, each general manager stood up during their meeting and stated what their offseason goals were. Many mentioned specific players they were making available. The idea was suggested by Boston's Theo Epstein and Florida's Larry Beinfest, co-chairs of this year's meeting.

Boy, to be a fly on the wall for that.

216 I totally despise long contracts ( see JP,O. Perez and others)

Just nitpicking, but Odalis's contract was only 3 years (2005-2007).

220 Unless Piggy Miggy is a two-year rental, the 2010 payroll will have at least $50M committed to ARod and Cabrera. Might be a tad constraining

The Dodgers also have Pierre for $10 million in 2010, and will owe Nomar $1.25 and Schmidt $2.5 in deferred money. Also, without knowing who would be traded to get Cabrera, here are some others' contract status in 2010:

Martin - 2nd year of arb
Loney - 1st year of arb
Kemp - 1st year of arb
Ethier - 2nd year of arb
Abreu - 1st year of arb (maybe as a super two)
Billingsley - 1st year of arb
Broxton - 2nd year of arb

232 - it's a great idea though. You've got the other 29 GMs in the room and you can let them all know that Player X is on the trading block, rather than making a bunch of calls and hoping something works out.

Boy, to be a fly on the wall for that

Or even just a person allowed to sit in on the discussion.

"Hi, I'm Ned, and I haven't traded a prospect or signed a speedy flycatcher in 6 weeks."

(together): "Hi Ned!"

Who will be the next assistant GM to hit on/make racially insensitive comments to Kim Ng? That's all I want to know about the GM meetings.

The rest is boring.

I wonder what moronic things Tommy has said to her.

238 We can assume he's used the term "Oriental" at least once. Let's go from there.

Continuing my speculation upon speculation, I'm assuming LaRoche, Ethier, & McDonald will be enough to trade for Miguel Cabrera.

Here's a projected 2010 payroll:

C - Martin $5.5m (27 in 2010)
1B - Loney $3m (26)
2B - Abreu $1.5m (25)
3B - A-Rod $32m(34)
SS - Hu $500k (26)
LF - Cabrera $18m (27)
CF - Pierre $10m (32)
RF - Kemp $3m (25)
Bench (6 players) - $5m
SP - Santana $20m (31)
SP - Billingsley $3m (25)
SP - Kershaw $500k (22)
SP - Elbert $500k (25)
SP - Random starter $5m (34)
CL - Broxton $3.5m (26)
RP - Meloan $500k (25)
Rest of bullpen (4 pitchers) - $4m

Schmidt (deferred) - $2.5m
Nomar (deferred) - $1.25m

$119.25m total payroll

Totally doable, and totally never gonna happen.

Can Eric speak at the GM circle time too?

If all the GMs stand up and say who is available, don't they all say "anyone, for the right price"? Because that's what they say in public and it's mostly true. Sure you can have Cabrera for Kemp, Kershaw, LaRoche, and McDonald. Anyone is truly available.

Brad Lidge to Philly:

http://tinyurl.com/2x5oec

"Hi, Ned Colletti, Dodgers. Somebody, for the love of God, please take Juan Pierre off my back. Thank you."

Think I'm joking? No. That is all he should have said.

232 I wish Flanders were quoted as saying this in that very same story:
"It's pretty obvious which players we're not going to trade," he said, before rattling off the team's most-prized young pitchers. "(Billingsley), (Kershaw) and even (Meloan). Not for a position player."

MLB.com:

The Dodgers tried to pry Cabrera away from the Marlins last summer when they discussed a deal that would have sent Matt Kemp, James Loney and Chad Billingsley to Florida, but the Marlins balked.

The Marlins balked. Somebody send Beinfest a gift basket, courtesy of DT.

http://tinyurl.com/37ylur

240 I think you went too cheap on a lot of the Dodgers young players. Even if they long term Martin now, that's still only equal to what McCann is getting even though he signed one year earlier. If he ends up going to arbitration, he could get something in the nine million range. Same for Bills and Kemp.

243 Great deal for the Phils unless that Costanzo guy is any good.

246
Oh, lord. Well I guess they are both idiots.

246 I don't know if I make that move if I'm the Marlins. It takes some huge stones to trade a guy whose first comparable is Pujols.

249
Yeah, but they are going to trade him no matter what at some point. That was probably the best deal they could ever get for him.

It's the inclusion of Billingsley that's the kicker there. Any deal for Cabrera will include Kemp - that's a given. Loney plugs in nicely at first and is more proven than LaRoche. But to give up Billingsley, who has had great success in the bigs so far (as opposed to Kershaw) and instantly becomes their ace. Wow, I don't know what they wanted for Cabrera if not that package.

250 But they have him for three more years. They were coming off a year where they made a phenomenal run and probably saw themselves as contenders. The Marlins will probably never see a player as good as Cabrera again, and as good as that package is, means you lose something you'll never be able to replace in exchange for some players you can develop yourself (or acquire in a salary dump).

247 You are probably right, although Billingsley, Kemp and Loney are only 1st year arb-eligible in 2010 so I don't expect them to get much more than $3m or so.

Let's say the total payroll will be in the $120m-$130m range. I was just trying to paint a "what if" picture if the Dodgers could afford Cabrera and Rodriguez.

Hi I'm Ned,

"Send me your tired old vets, your poor arm outfielders, and I'll huddle them with masses of money and years on their contract "

252 - This "report" never says when this was discussed, just sometime over the summer. But if it was when Loney and Kemp were hitting .350+ and Billz was the best pitcher in the LA rotation, I think that's crazy to walk away from that. Now if it was in April, maybe there's some hesitancy.

The Dodgers tried to pry Cabrera away from the Marlins ^^last summer^^

Thank goodness! I got scared and thought they tried to do this last week. How on earth did the Marlins not pull the trigger?

251 Coming into 2007, I don't know if they thought that. Low ERA aside, Billingsley was not all that impressive, while Josh Johnson and Scott Olsen were coming off great years. He'd obviously be in the rotation, but he'd be seen as the number four at the start of the year. Obviously they would know he'd get better, but how much, and how fast was the question.

246 -- That's it. That tears it. I've probably been the the DT poster most inclined to being open-minded about Colletti, insofar as I have said I don't HATE him. Well, now I HATE him. Intensely. To make that trade offer, uh...words are failing me. Just die already, you piece of garbage.

231 A wonderful principal if it obstructed a guaranteed contract for more than seven years for a fragile human

233 Don't consider it nit-picking at all. Three years was obviously way too long for someone like Perez.

255 It would have had to have been before Wolf went down indefinitely.

Let's say Kemp hit .330/.415/.570 this year. Boston offers us Ellsbury, Buchholz, and Lester for him. Do you do it? Would you call someone an idiot if they past it up?

261
But we are not the Florida Marlins who knew they were going to sell Cabrera off soon. They won't play a player the quality of Cabrera.

*pay the player the quality of Cabrera

246 At present, with a years perspective, if the D's offered more than one of the three players named, I would puke, rather than balk. Let the Marlins pay Cabreras salary if he is worth that much.

261 - I think I make that trade. Two very promising young pitchers is tough to pass up.

262 If they knew that Miguel Cabrera was gone next year, then yes, they have to do it. Then again, if the most you can afford to keep a stud player is four years, you might as well just give up.

261 The Dodgers can sign their impending free agents. It's a different kettle of fish.

Canuck, you should only wish for death on true monsters, like Pol Pot or Wink Martindale.

265 My thinking was maybe you do, maybe you don't, but I wouldn't fault anyone for passing it up.

Yankees won't trade Chamberlain, Hughes, or Kennedy for Cabrera.

http://tinyurl.com/yue642

Also keep in mind your career more than likely rests on that move. If you trade one of the best 23 year old hitters ever and what you get in return isn't amazing, you probably never hold a GM job again.

261 I would probably do it. But I wouldn't critisize someone who didn't.

If I had to make one prediction this year, it is that Schmidt will never pitch effectively again. I'm not quite a doctor, but closer than most.

269 - Is Kennedy another case of the Yankees overhyping their own prospects? He's really not in the class of the other two. In fact, he's exactly the guy they should dangle for Cabrera.

From mlbtraderumors.com:

For Cabrera:

"Kemp + Laroche + Kershaw/Billingsley and another most likely"

It really comes down to how much you believe in the potential of Kemp and LaRoche and their ability to play effectively right now.

272 - Of course I don't think the Yankees really need Cabrera, so maybe that's why they're hesitant to give anyone up. I'm surprised they are mentioned as being among the front-runners for him.

Great, now it is four players.

Someone cut off Ned's ears.

The trades Kemp is mentioned in make him the most important player of the new century. This is probably an exaggeration.

Hot Stove League used to be the funnest time of the year.

Now it is the scariest.

Ruud Gullit is the next likely coach of the LA Galaxy.

273 If the D's made that kind of trade, we on the east coast, or perhaps all of us, could become Marlins fans with no regrets.

You know, let's just say NedCo goes for it.

He discards Kemp, Laroche, and Kershaw/Bills.

Cabrera goes into the tank; has an eating disorder and posts something like .269/.320/.333 with 17 HR in '08

Then in 2010 the Marlins go to the World Series with Kemp and LaRoche leading the way. Bills or Kershaw pitches a complete game in Game 4 of the World Series, which the Marlins win in 6.

That's what could happen.

279

Gen3Blue, I won't become a Marlins fan, but my new favorite team will be "Whoever's playing the Dodgers"

:)

280 I think Nomar reverting back to 1998 form is a bit more likely than that.

This proposed trade has caused much goo-feasting.

Bob should be happy.

Sorry to post three in a row...

It's not even whether NedCo does it or not, my biggest problem has so little vision that he even considers a lopsided trade such as this one, which makes the Texiera trade tame by comparison.

That's the major problem, that NedCo has no actual plan or foresight.

I am sure Ned won't trade Bills or Loney.

Honest question, has MLB Trade Rumors ever gotten a scoop, or even have a success rate higher than dumb luck?

Does anyone play Baseball Mogul here? Is it as cool as it sounds?

LReader I can sure appreciate that.
This kind of stuff sure makes this a horrible time of year for an organiztion that seems to have little direction or stability. If we just had stuck with player development at this point we would become great.

I can truly say I hate this time of year.

283
I like goo.

I like typing Ruud Gullit too.

Meet Miguel Cabrera, the new, fatter Delino.

286 No. It's just a gossip aggregator. Which is fine, I guess. I don't really visit it.

You people are much quicker with the chatter.

290 was for 280

287 I'm not a huge fan (Out Of The Park is much better I think) but the free version is a nice time waster.

Problems are that the minors are just sort of a mess (only get about 25 minor leaguers total), there's no advanced roster management like 40 man rosters or waivers, and the AI is pretty dumb, doing things like one year of Gagne for Ervin Santana, Howie Kendrick, and Brandon Wood.

Thanks Gen,

Now to play devil's advocate. If you commit 100% to kids, the way the Colorado Rockies did, for example, you're basically building yourself up to a World Series sweep at the hands of the Red Sox.

So I'm not saying stick with kids and thats it. However if you go out and get someone, don't sell off the farm, and even if you do, make sure it's a guy that's actually worth it!

Cabrera is probably one of those guys. A-Rod is not only one of those guys, but he won't even need any prospects to be traded.

Why is there so much (rumored) desire to get a guy like Cabrera when easily The Greatest Player in the Game&trade is only a few million more per year, without the need for a trade?

293 - Sweet, thanks for the advice.

294 HEAR him!

If this organization is going to make a big move, spend on A-Rod--don't trade. If we got A-Rod and then that Minn. pitcher, we might have to play our own talent and do well despite the "Front Office".

and no M. (the Whale) Cabrera.

Basically, it sounds like the only time of year that people feel safe re potential moves is from August 1st to the end of the World Series.

I'm in agreement with people here who don't want to trade a bunch of talent for one player. I see no reason to do this, when long term we can sign star players on the free agent market. I would much rather commit to youth and then use the money saved to sign key stars.

It surprises me that there is much gnashing of teeth and rending of clothing here over supposed trade offers that were discussed. We have no facts on whether these rumors are true, regarding the details, who proposed the trade and who rejected it. We don't know for a fact that Ned is considering crazy offers that require giving up the farm. Moreover, his public comments contradict this sort of behavior.

Comment 258 is a clear example of such overreaction. Canuck, I like you ... back down from the ledge. Sportswriter rumors about current or past deals are not worth it! :-)

298 I think the problem is that Ned might worry about the backlash from signing ARod to a huge contract. It will seem like he's giving in to Boras. So I think he might consider making a stupid trade because it will seem more prudent to people who don't read this blog.

But if the Dodgers can pick up Cabrera in a trade that keeps our current rotation in tact and leaves us with Loney and Martin. And they are also able to sign ARod, I think the lineup is strong throughout and awesome in the middle. It may not be the best for producing a long-term winning solution, but it will put them in a great position to dominate the NL in 2008.

Friday is the one year anniversary of J.D. Drew opting out.

296 Enough with the fat-hate! Some of the greatest athletes of all time are very fat.

Babe Ruth
umm... Cecil Fielder
Uh... Stanley Roberts
I had a pretty good year in softball this year.

299 Why would Colletti be worried about a backlash from signing A-Rod to a huge contract? Wouldn't he be a hero in Los Angeles? Wouldn't the average fan see that we got A-Rod and care less about the size of his contract and just be ecstatic we got a huge star?

On the other hand, the average fan may not even know who Miguel Cabrera is.

Or is this all about pleasing Plaschke? Much as we vilify him, I see no evidence that the Dodgers act on his advice.

gnashing of teeth and rending of clothing

Well I was clutching my pearls.

298 - Good post. But you assume "key stars" will be availablle on the free agent market, an assumption that rarely occurrs.
A-Rod is the exception to the rule -- a true star in the prime of his career.

Are you advocating a move on A-Rod? If not, what are we waiting for?

The Dodgers could be asked for outfielder Matt Kemp, third baseman Andy LaRoche and pitcher Chad Billingsley or top pitching prospect Clayton Kershaw, although one official familiar with the Dodgers' thinking said the team probably would consider that price "too much."

new latimes article

301 Mo Vaughn is the only professional athlete with a two foot high sandwich named after him. That must count for something.

BTF has a Twins article up stating they are thinking about trading some of their pitching for some young positional players.

if the ARONS plan works out, Laroche for Garza is something I could get behind.

307 Nate, what does ARONS stand for?

308

something about A-Rod or noone scheme.

"One of our goals coming into the offseason was to find a quality speed center fielder who could hit at the top of the order and give us a spark," Houston general manager Ed Wade said in a statement.

OMGZ Colletti!! One of the few teams looking for a Juan Pierre.

Pierre for Pence. Done.

310 And it's Ed Wade.

Hope!

LOL. Yes, got to move Pence out of CF.

Save us, Ed! Save us!!!

I just read the LA Times story and the Cabrera trade was also rumored yesterday in another Internet report which said that the Dodgers would probably be interested in talking to the Marlins. It is clear to me with so many teams needing 3rd basemen and AROD out there it is the logical way for the Marlins to maximize there opportunity.
The problem I see with getting AROD, which in my mind would allow us to keep our good young talent and have depth is the length of the Boras contract.

The gutsy move which I doubt the Dodgers would go for would be to offer AROD a 3-5 year deal with a larger average say 32 million and see what happens. The advantage of keeping LaRoche and signing AROD, would be when Furcal's contract comes up you could let him go and possibly move AROD back to short with LaRoche at 3rd. If LaRoche can't cut it or he is worth more has trade bait than you can keep AROD at 3rd and either Hu is ready or you keep Furcal.

310 - what's your source there, Nate?

So, who's likely to be added to the 40-man?

I think the following players are locks or close to sure things:

McDonald
Orenduff
DeWitt
Elbert

Xavier Paul, Mark Alexander, and maybe even Cory Dunlap are also likely. Am I missing anyone?

Likely 40-man excluding trades (maybes in bold):

Catchers (2):
Martin, backup TBD

Infielders (9)
Loney, Kent, LaRoche, Furcal, Nomar, Abreu, Hu, DeWitt, Dunlap

Outfielders (6)
Ethier, Pierre, Kemp, Young, Paul, Repko

Pitchers (20)
Penny, Billingsley, Lowe, Schmidt, Loaiza, Saito, Broxton, Proctor, Beimel, Meloan, Stults, Hull, Houlton, McDonald, Alexander, Elbert, Orenduff, Kuo, Tsao, Brazoban

That's a manageable 37, and assumes Wilson Valdez & Hendrickson are gone. I would imagine a Seanez-type and a Sweeney-type will be added as well, pushing the total to 39.

That doesn't bode well for Dunlap. Gotta have room to sign certain FAs.

316 Kuo shouldn't have been in bold up there. he's under team control (though out of options) in 2008, and not arb-eligible like Tsao & Brazoban.

Cabrera is worth pursuing.

He is not Mark Teixeira. He is certainly not Delino DeShields. His upside is far, far beyond those comparisons. On the market this off-season, there is only player comparable -- A-Rod.

Cabrera's weight is not relevant. You're not pursuing him for his defense, nor his girlish figure.

Besides, if you were a player of his quality on a team destined to finish last...it isn't the most flattering thing to say about him, but maybe he let himself go a little. If he thinks he's heading for a World Series and a $25 million payday, he might find a way to push back from the table.

Cabrera is worth much more than McDonald (or whoever), LaRoche and Ethier. That's a laughable offer. We can't say the first two are actual major leaguers, and Ethier is, by wide agreement here, close to a fourth outfielder.

I would not rule out trading Kemp and any two other Dodger players/prospects for Cabrera, so long as they are neither Billingsley nor Loney.

We've got to be realistic here. There are more than a few other teams interested in him. There will have to be an attractive package, comprised of more than just the players who are unproven or we could live without.

If Ned Colletti can get Cabrera for the Ethier-McDonald-LaRoche package, there won't be any doubt who McCourt's statue will be of: Ned! And you guys will all be at the unveiling.

If you're really going to get Cabrera, you've got to figure on losing Kemp and at least one more painful departure. And my guess is, it'll be worth it. I doubt Logan White would disagree.

The other route -- Arod -- sure, if we win that sweepstakes, then we get to live on Big Rock Candy Mountain for awhile. We get to keep Kemp and use LaRoche for trade bait. Wonderful! I don't go to many games, so I won't hardly notice the extra $20 per ticket to pay for it.

But with the Boras problem, the month or two that will go by before Arod makes his decision...I see us getting screwed over in the end, having lost by that time the opportunity to get Cabrera. I would not hate Ned if he dealt Kemp ++ for Cabrera. I think it would be a wise thing to do.

I don't think Dunlap or Alexander will be added to the 40 man roster.

316 I don't think Dewitt needs to be on the 40 man yet. You also missed a couple more likely guys like Corey Wade, Mike Megrew and Zach Hammes.

320 I forgot to add Megrew & Miller, who are already on the 40-man. Hammes was removed last month. Do you think it's likely he will be added back?

Nate and Andrew, thanks for the input.

320 DeWitt signed the same day as Elbert (6/11/04), but DeWitt was 18 (Aug 20 b-day) while Elbert was 19 (May 13 b-day).

Does that account for the extra year for DeWitt?

322

Elbert's bday is wrong. He was born in August.

322 Yep.

um...do 310 and 312 need to go back and read 243 ?

322 Would that mean both Elbert & DeWitt don't have to be added to the 40-man until after 2008 then? They were both 18 when they signed.

If in fact we do get Cabrera (for whoever Ned decides to trade), I want to start a "how many HRs will he hit" pool immediately.

I'm calling my shot and saying 21.

327 Put me down for 32.

put me down for 300...as in 300 for his career as a Dodger.

325 Bourn isn't a real everyday CF. I doubt he's going to start.

Come on, man. Don't be rainin' on parades over here.

327 You really think that at age 23, Cabrera's going to regress by 10-15 home runs? Why? Do people from Venezuela age faster?

The tally so far:

Original recipe #2: 21
Errrric Stephen: 32
Nate: 50 (that's 300 divided by 6)

329 300 for his career as a Dodger

Those 7 years really helped ease the transition from Torre to Mattingly! :)

331

Ratt, I thought like "the Price is Right." I wanted to get close to the actual Retail HRs without going over.

327
2008 - 39
2009 - 41
2010 - 43

333

I was thinking.. he has two years left til free agency, then Dodgers ink him to a 6yr deal, so that totals 8 years and roughly 37.5hrs per year from his age 24-32 seasons.

Maybe that figure is a bit low. There should also be a weight clause in his contract.

Thinking about it some more, I would trade Laroche, Kershaw and Ethier for Miggy. Thats my final offer.

I say Cabrera gets 38.

Gardner-Webb routed Kentucky in B-ball this evening.

Appalachian State's rubbing off on other sports!

327 Does Cabrera know that Hooters gives free wings if the Dodgers score 10 or more? If so, he might be pretty motivated to swing for the fences on every pitch.

338 It's an epidemic!

Gardner-Webb over #22 Kentucky
Findlay over Ohio St
Grand Valley St over #8 Mich St

All home losses.

339

Is that true??? I thought that was an Angels thing.

Updated tally:

"How many HRs will Cabrera hit in 2008?"

#2 says: 21
Errric Stephen: 32
Nate: 37
TC: 39
trainwreck: 38

338
I watched most of that game. Kentucky just tried to do way too much one-on-one stuff. They were taking bad shot after bad shot.
That is something that will drive Billy Gillispie insane.

Gardner-Webb were playing really sloppy ball for awhile in the first half too.

31 - I gotta disagree. Caberra is worth pursuing, only to a point.

His weight absolutely matters. If he's not in good shape, he is not going to be able to play the game well, if he's not able to play the game well, he is not worth acquiring.

Ethier is being seriously underrated. He is not a fourth outfielder. He is a starter that is going to put up a good line, year in and year out. Plus, he can actually play some defense.

And just because other teams are interested in him does not mean that it is worth trading three good or very good players for him. The fact that someone else is willing to be irrational and over spend does not mean that you have to do the same. Besides, my fear is that we are going to fill one hole and create two more (in the outfield and likely in the starting rotation, either this year or next).

What troubles me most about Ned, and some of this line of thinking generally, is that it is doing something for the sake of doing something. That never works out well.

I was checking out the all time OPS+ for the Los Angeles Dodgers by age just in case Miggy came over.
I used an OPS+ of 150 as the benchmark since he's hit that number at age 22 & 23.
No Dodger until the age of 24 had an OPS+ of 150 or more.
24/Piazza/152
25/Beltre/163
26/Piazza/172
27/Piazza/166
28/Piazza/185
29/Guerrero/181
30/Nobody over 150
31/Sheffield/176
32/Reggie Smith/167
33/Reggie Smith/161
34/Eddie Murray/158

No Dodger after the age of 34 had an OPS+ of 150 or more.

Complete list
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/NQz9

I am still befuddled that anyone would boo Mike Piazza but yet they do. The man should have a bloody statue.

When I got back into the kitchen after dinner to clean up I switched to ESPNews and the Kentucky game had just ended. I was surprised at the result, but especially at the score differential. Sixteen points? Wow.

340 Double wow. OSU and Michigan State went down too? At home? Jeepers. Take that, Dick Vitale and Billy Packer!

343 - sorry, that is supposed to be linked to 318

341

Most of those are really good projections. Mine is just silly, but it assumes Cabrera finds the nearby Hometown Buffet. To bed I go!

Let's all hope today's Times headline "Martin, Cabrera Win Gold Gloves" will be exclusively a Dodger article a year from now.*

*I'm aware M. Cabrera is an awful fielder, but don't harsh my mellow, man.

336
I'm thinking we can work Hu into the deal since everyone seems to think that Hanley needs to move off of SS. I've posted my thoughts on possible trade scenarios over at true blue.

318 -- The Yankees say they won't even give up Ian Kennedy for Cabrera, and he is no better than James McDonald. And I will make the same point I made about the Red Sox wanting Andy LaRoche, if the Yankees already had LaRoche, they wouldn't be the least bit interested in Cabrera. I am beginning to think it is not just Colletti who is underestimating LaRoche. I am astonished at how many people here are going gaga over A-Rod and Cabrera when I would have expected the DT crowd to see that when you consider players as "whole packages" -- not just offensive talent, but defensive talent, plus their salary costs, years they are tied up, any talent you would have to give up to get said player -- both A-Rod and Cabrera are astronomically overvalued compared to LaRoche.

What happened to DT being a citadel of sabermetrics, the reputation that gets DT flamed on other boards like InsideThe Dodgers or Dodgers.com? What happened to that Moneyball lust to take advantage of undervalued talent and disdain the overvalued? LaRoche is going to be a 25-35 HR hitter. You are not going to get more than 35 HR's out of Cabrera, and in MOST years that is about what A-Rod gives a team. On the whole, Cabrera and A-Rod are offensively better talents than LaRoche, but the MARGIN of difference in that one area is obliterated by EVERY OTHER FACTOR -- defense, salary costs, years tied to us, what we would have to give up (even A-Rod would cost a draft pick) -- being in LaRoche's favor. Lusting after an A-Rod or a Cabrera because they are "proven" compared to LaRoche is the worst aspect of traditional, old school baseball thinking, and it is on an occasion like this that I think it is ironic that I am sort of known around here as the old school guy.

344 The man should have a bloody statue

Agreed, but the literal notion of that would likely be the result and cause of more booing.

Cabrera could be a decent left fielder.

Theoretically.

Going into the game the Clippers are of course playing without Brand and Livy.

They were playing a back to back on the road.

They were playing in Indiana where they have lost 10 of the last 11.

Within 10 minutes they lost their high scorer for the season(Cutino) and a top reserve in Patterson.

They haven't been 4 - 0 in 20 years.

They blew Indiana out of the water in the 3rd qtr and cruised to their 4th victory.

350
I love LaRoche. The problem is Ned does not seem to. He never mentions LaRoche when he rattles off the names of the youngsters.

I also think people see the idea of adding A-Rod + what LaRoche could bring us in a trade. As I said, we could just re-sign Wolf and I would be happy.

341 Well, it is if you have a ticket stub for that game (and the Dodgers win). That, or I am just pretty good at flirting with those young ladies.

Put me down for 47 if Cabrera is aware of the promotion and 33 if he doesn't.

what bob said about the two jakes. worth seeing but never should've been made, really. it's like making a casablanca sequel. a 2 disc special edition just came out this week for both films I believe. the two jakes one seems like overkill.

(sorry for the lowercase-ness, i'm using a treo a lot this week.)

350 I agree with the general sentiment and tone of your post, but I disagree with a couple of points:

1) I expect A-Rod to hit more than 35 HR annually for the foreseeable future. In the last ten seasons, he has hit less than 41 HR only twice (35 in 2006; 36 in 2004). He has 454 total HR in those 10 seasons.

2) Cabrera is only 24, and has already hit 33, 33, and 34 HR in separate seasons. It's not unreasonable to think he will hit more than 35 HR.

Gardner-Webb calls itself "the Runnin' Bulldogs."

Does that mean there are faster bulldogs than others? By a noticeable amount.

But they beat Kentucky in Lexington tonight.

Gardner-Webb is in Boiling Springs, North Carolina.

350
So his disk problem just magically corrects itself and never bothers him again?
You seem to only be looking at his minor league numbers and ignoring his health issues. Within 18 months he has problems with both shoulders and a disk problem that caused him to hit the minor league DL at the worse possible time. Then when he finally got promoted we find out he needs to do daily exercises to keep the back in playing shape and just by missing one day of exercises he was unable to play for 3 days. You just can't gloss over these issues.

353
I guess Mike Dunleavy knows how to coach against a team with Mike Dunleavy on it.

356 The Two Jakes is a fine movie. It doesn't have to be Chinatown to be a good movie.

And if Robert Towne wrote it, I'd be at the third Jake Gittes movie in a heartbeat.

360 Both benches expect the other Mike Dunleavy to let his team down! :)

353
One last basketball note. Why would anyone want Jermaine O'Neil at this stage of his career compared to Andrew Bynum?

Mike Junior is off to a torrid start.
Mike Senior is off to an even more torrid start.
It is a good time to be a Dunleavy. For a week anyway.

Where's Enders? I bet he liked The Two Jakes.

363 I was in favor of Odom & Bynum for Jermaine O'Neal in the offseason, but I'm happily having my doubts now.

365 Where's Enders?

Due to the newly imposed Toaster rule of "One Eric At A Time", I currently have the conch and Enders is on the outside looking in.

I had no idea they made a sequel to Chinatown.

363 - depends, what's the window to win a championship?

If you have talent with a 2-4 year window, I'd say take J. O'Neil. If you've got a 3-7 year window, I'd say go with Bynum.

My problem is, I'm not sure what the Lakers window is anymore. I think Kobe has another 5 years, max, as an elite player (and maybe another 3-5 as a pretty good player, extended all the way, he'd be almost 40, so maybe even less time), so I fully understand his desire to have a team that can win now.

Personally, I still think the Lakers should trade Odom for AK-47. And if they could find a way to work the Suns into a three team deal and also land Marion, I'd be ecstatic... though I doubt that would happen.

368
There was no sequel to "Chinatown". Such talk is just a fairy story parents tell to their children to scare them into becoming economists when they grow up.

Odom is so under-appreciated. He is not even a natural power forward, yet he rebounds like one and he can be a great facilitator. The problem has been that Kobe dominates the ball. Odom needs the ball in his hands, because he is a playmaker.

352 And Billingsley could become a good bunter, but that's not why he's valued.

Cabrera hits real good. Fat as he might've gotten, he had a great year offensively in '07. Going for him is not a matter of doing something for the sake of doing something. The opportunity to get a player like that and lock him up for 6-8 years is not going to come around too often. I don't think 300 HRs in that span is unrealistic.

This is not anti-LaRoche. If the Dodgers don't get Cabrera or A-Rod, I hope they give LaRoche a real shot. I'd love to find out that he's as great as some have forecast. I would be pissed if Ned decided Joe Crede or Pedro Feliz was a better option. But Cabrera is a better option even if we think LaRoche is going to be a really good player. It's nothing against LaRoche to say he is not going to be what Cabrera already is.

It's just like this: If the Dodgers (hypothetically) could get Albert Pujols, he'd make Loney expendable. That's no reflection on Loney. It's comparing good-to-great with HOF-level ability.

352 And Billingsley could become a good bunter, but that's not why he's valued.

Cabrera hits real good. Fat as he might've gotten, he had a great year offensively in '07. Going for him is not a matter of doing something for the sake of doing something. The opportunity to get a player like that and lock him up for 6-8 years is not going to come around too often. I don't think 300 HRs in that span is unrealistic.

This is not anti-LaRoche. If the Dodgers don't get Cabrera or A-Rod, I hope they give LaRoche a real shot. I'd love to find out that he's as great as some have forecast. I would be pissed if Ned decided Joe Crede or Pedro Feliz was a better option. But Cabrera is a better option even if we think LaRoche is going to be a really good player. It's nothing against LaRoche to say he is not going to be what Cabrera already is.

It's just like this: If the Dodgers (hypothetically) could get Albert Pujols, he'd make Loney expendable. That's no reflection on Loney. It's comparing good-to-great with HOF-level ability.

whoops. my "submit" finger got the yips.

371 - I appreciate what Odom can do, I remember him as a college player at Rhode Island. I just don't think his game fits well in the triangle. He'd have been great with Kobe if Rudy T and the run and gun style would have stuck. But it didn't. Plus, according to the Laker Report in the Times, it looks like Odom will get to play SF and Rony Turiaf is going to be the starting PF the rest of the year.

357 -- It is in two of the last four years that A-Rod has hit HR's in the mid-30, and he is getting further and further away from the "age 27 career peak years," so unless A-Rod is going to go the way of Bonds pharmaceutically, I have him down as a guy, going forward, whom you can count on to hit home runs in the mid-to-high 30's, absent more years in home parks like Arlington, while HOPING for more.

And Cabrera's weight gain, in his early 20's, and projecatble FURTHER weight gain, is why I think you have to throw the rules out when it comes to expecting him to follow the normal career pattern for a hitter. He is eating himself into premature career DECLINE. I can see him as somebody like Beltre, who peaked in 2004 (and I admit that I was one of the people who after 2004 said that at his age Belte was sure to keep getting better and we should break the bank to re-sign him).

375
I think he could be great in the triangle, but we use Kobe as the main cog in the triangle. Odom going against small forwards will help him in the triangle, because he will be able to post up against them easier.

I didn't dislike the two jakes. I enjoyed it. but just preferred there be the one jake.

--
I feel like the bravest thing the dodgers could do this winter is name laroche starting 3rd baseman. but it's not likely with toretti at the helm(s).

whoa, did nate actually advocate trading kershaw, even for miggy? whoa.

376 If it makes you feel better, I could live without Alex Rodriguez or Miguel Cabrera (if it really took three high ceiling guys to get him).

But I'd be hesitant to bet against Cabrera. So he's a fatty. Big deal. He's a fatty that rakes at 24 years old. I'd bet he comes to his next camp in much better shape.

376 Only including the last 4 years, with a home park of Yankee Stadium (not Arlington), A-Rod hit 173 HR, even including the two "down" years. That's 43 per year, age 28-31.

It's not unreasonable to expect more than 35 HR over the next 6 years from A-Rod. My issue was that 35 HR was what A-Rod will give you "MOST years", that's all.

Looks like we can put the kabosh on the Pierre to Houston talk... ESPN says that the Astros traded Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett to Philly for "speedy outfielder Michael Bourn", Geoff Geary and a minor league 3B.

Maybe this means that Philly needs a new speedy outfielder?

361 I used to worship Robert Towne. Not just for "Chinatown," but for "Shampoo," "The Last Detail," and "Personal Best" too.

But he hasn't written a really good movie since 1982.

He gets a lot of deference because he has a radical view of LA history. It served him well in "Chinatown," one of my alltime favorite movies, even though it was deeply unfair to the DWP. The DWP was actually a model of progressivism -- a public utility -- and hardly the tool of a rich guy like Noah Cross.

But his other LA movies since then have been subpar artistically. Ever seen "Tequila Sunrise?" "Ask the Dust?" "Love Affair?" And I can't stand what he did to the perfect little suspense gem that was "Mission: Impossible" when it was just a TV show.

Sadly, Robert Towne's just a hack now. I wish he would leave "Chinatown" alone. As for Jack Nicholson -- go make a sequel to "As Good as it Gets," or "About Schmidt," or even "A Few Good Men." Hell, I'd rather see a sequel to "Something's Got to Give" than a sequel to "Chinatown."

369
Have you seen O'Neil lately? Just curious because he was never a factor in the game tonight. Kaman owned the middle.

Not that we all are on the same page here, but 372 (and 373 !) were well said.

I want LaRoche to start in the worst way, but I see getting A-Rod and/or M.Cabrera as Ned insurance, as crazy as that sounds.

I fear if A-Rod or Cabrera aren't in Dodger blue next spring, LaRoche will not be the one reaping the benefits of their absence, at least not for a few months.

I was trying to find that article on Prospectus about setting up your team based on number of wins for the lowest cost instead of basing how many wins you can get with a certain payroll, but I did not have much luck finding it.

It promotes what Canuck is talking about. Yes, A-Rod and Cabrera are going to be better than LaRoche (most likely), but we have to put a price on the discrepancy in their production. Is signing A-Rod to a huge deal really cost effective, when we could improve areas that we really have problems with. The article basically said we should upgrade CF and pitching for the price we would spend on A-Rod.

385 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=653

382 Robert Towne is just like every other 70's artist today. He did his thing, writes to make a buck, and sells out for the big payday.

Pacino, DeNiro, Dustin Hoffman, Voight, Coppola, Jack...They're all hacks now.

Doesn't mean he couldn't write a great ending to the supposed Jake Gittes trilogy.

386
Thanks, I knew it was Win something.

"The Two Jakes" was akin to Ryne Sandberg's comeback.

Or being forced to a Dodger highlight package on TV that consisted solely of Tyler Houston at bats.

My feelings are that Ned will never hand LaRoche the third base job and rather go get a third baseman. Since that is the case, I rather it be A-Rod since he is one of the best players in the game and all we have to do is shell out money. This is why I agree with ARON.

I'd just like to say that Hal Ashby never sold out. He preferred death over making "S1mone" or "Meet the Parents" or "Anger Management."

389 That's an overstatement and you know it.

A good number of people liked the movie. Nobody liked Tyler Houston.

389 Tyler Houston went 4-4 in his first game as a Dodger, including a triple in his first AB!

I have to learn the right time to be opinionated.

I believe the proper answer is never. It scares people or angers them.

394 Nobody is angered. As long as we never, ever discuss college football coaches, it's always in the spirit of good fun and good cheer.

Jerk!

357
I would say it is very unreasonable to expect Miggy to never hit more then 35 home runs after he leaves Florida.

After perusing the home run list by age I found some misses.
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/gRdN
Most of the players who have hit > 30 home runs starting at age 20 have become HOF type players. Guys like Pujols, Arod, Frank Robinson, Eddie Mathews, Bench, Vlady. But there are several guys who slugged 30 or twice before the age of 24 and then did a swan dive.
Horner hit 33 at age 21 and 35 at age 22 and only touched 30 one more time in his career.
Jim Ray Hart hit 31 at 22, 33 at 24 and never hit 30 again.

But no one has hit more then 30 home runs 3 out of 4 years from the age of 20 - 23. His best comp appears to be Pujols and Frank Robinson.

The weight problem is an issue but he does recognize it and so maybe he'll reverse it.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2944052

396
That list is post-integration.

395
Oh, I have been waiting to tell you this. Tracy from BRO seems to be dropping hints about Rich Brooks as someone the athletic department is looking at.

Marty's vote on this issue will be crucial. As a lover of all things historical in Los Angeles, when he tells me The Two Jakes stinks, I shall accept defeat.

I'll bet Marty hated it.

somebody made 'anger management'?

392
Even Mrs Houston was glad when he left home. He had been a cranky baby and it just never got better.

Oh, I didn't hate "The Two Jakes" so much as finding it a major disappointment after C-town. Relative to its origin, it's worse than Godfather Part III. But Godfather Part III is somewhat watchable, and Two Jakes has a few sparkling lines in it, like the "leper with the most fingers" bit. But the plot was a slog, and that elusive, romantic quality that elevated the original was completely absent.

402
My views are similar. dzzrtRatt just writes a lot better than I do.

402 I also like GF Part III.

I like the sequels that nobody wants.

404
I shall fly to South Bend and light a candle in the Grotto for you.

Your soul is need of redemption.

Don't take it personally.

Your soul is need of redemption.

I wish people would stop telling me this. Every day with the soul redemption.

387 "Robert Towne is just like every other 70's artist today. He did his thing, writes to make a buck, and sells out for the big payday. Pacino, DeNiro, Dustin Hoffman, Voight, Coppola, Jack...They're all hacks now."

You can add Sidney Lumet, Sydney Pollack, and William Friedkin to the list. There are a few exceptions, though...
Clint Eastwood
Milos Forman
Woody Allen
Jodie Foster
Robert Altman
Sissy Spacek

Also, while I won't argue the point that Nicholson is now a hack, I will make the heretical suggestion that he turned in the best performance of his career in "About Schmidt."

408 Better than Randall P. MacMurphy? Better than Billy Buddusky? Better than Jake Gittes?

I like "About Schmidt" a lot, but that is pretty heretical.

Jack Nicholson is no hack. I can't think of a movie he was in recently where I didn't enjoy his performance, except for "Anger Management," which was just stupid through and through. But yeah Eric, I love him in "About Schmidt."

He's like Norma Desmond. He's still big. It's the pictures that got small.

I feel very attached to the film artists of the 70s you all mention. I don't think very many of them became hacks. Some got old. (And Altman died.) Some pursued their muse down a rat hole, integrity intact but nothing to show for it (Woody Allen). But only a few became true hacks. Unfortunately Towne is one. DeNiro and Hoffman, yeah I guess you have to say so, although what great roles do you think either of them were offered that they turned down for "Meet the Parents?"

(Today's not a good day to speak ill of screenwriters, though.)

410 I can't think of five Woody Allen movies that I didn't find wonderful. Let's see...Small Time Crooks, Jade Scorpion, Everyone Says I love you, Anything Else...Yeah, that's about it.

Woody Allen has been, with a few exceptions, consistently great. And Deconstructing Harry is the most criminally underrated movie he's ever made. It's brilliant.

Sidney Lumet's new one, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, should take him off the "washed up hack" list...

412
Anybody can make a good movie with Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Ethan Hawke, and Albert Finney.

Not knocking the guy. He directed Dog Day Afernoon, Serpico, and Network. Three of my favorite movies. But, to be honest, I didn't even know he was alive.

So Cabrera's available? My first thought is to say,"No, thanks", and stay with LaRoche... But the intriguing thing is, they want a center fielder in trade as well as a couple of other very good young (read 'cheap')players. So happens we have a center fielder we'd love to trade... So how's this look? We get Cabrera; they get: 1: Pierre (even if we got to pay half the salary) 2: LaRoche (It's OK, we have a good third baseman now: Cabrera) 3: Minor league pitcher or other. Then we sign Andruw Jones, everybody is happy. How's this for a lineup?
Furcal
Russell
Loney
Cabrera
Jones
Kemp
Kent
Ethier
Actually, I wouldn't care what order these guys hit in...

I like the sequels that nobody wants

Revenge of the Nerds II: Nerds in Paradise...?...?...?

From the Palm Beach Post: "Meanwhile, an industry source said the Dodgers are making a big push for Cabrera. There even was speculation that their interest could lead to a blockbuster deal that also would include Marlins left-hander Dontrelle Willis.

Although the Marlins are listening to offers for Willis, they don't seem as intent on trading him as they do Cabrera, who stands to make more than $10 million in arbitration this winter. Willis would make as much as $8 million.

Los Angeles appears to have the most to offer the Marlins from a group that could include outfielders Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, third-base prospect Andy LaRoche and pitcher Chad Billingsley. The Dodgers could sweeten the pot by tossing in one or two pitching prospects (left-hander Clayton Kershaw, left-hander Scott Elbert and/or right-handed reliever Jonathan Meloan).

Maybe we can throw in Piazza and Gil Hodges too. Colletti needs to be sedated.

I will be pretty surprised if no Dodger gets traded this off-season.

Wuss. Why back down from what you said? Stick to your guns. We all know you meant what you said, so don't bother trying to tell us you didn't.

Hall of Fame coach Don Shula tried to clarify his comments about the effect the "Spygate" scandal would have on any records that may be achieved by this season's New England Patriots on Thursday morning.

Shula told ESPN's "Mike and Mike in the Morning" that if the Patriots run the table and finish with a perfect record to match that of his 1972 Dolphins, then there "shouldn't be any attachment to it," referring to a possible asterisk next to New England's name in the record books.

417 It will happen. Colletti is on a short leash and must produce a winner now. McCourt won't blame Torre if the team tanks this year, he'll fire Ned. By the same token, he can't admit he made a huge mistake in signing JP. I figure as a result that LaRoche and some pitching are gone, probably Kemp or Ethier too. JP to left, Hunter or Rowand signed to play center, and a mess of long-term deals left for Kim Ng in '09. Colletti is proving a disaster in the Sheriff Malone manner.

Sorry if this is old news...

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The Philadelphia Phillies acquired
former All-Star relief pitcher Brad Lidge in a five-player trade
with the Houston Astros.
Philadelphia said it also received infielder Eric Bruntlett
and sent outfielder Michael Bourne, pitcher Geoff Geary and
minor-league infielder Mike Costanzo to Houston. The trade was
the first of Major League Baseball's annual general managers'
meeting in Orlando, Florida.

Also...

Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Seven-time Cy Young Award winner
Roger Clemens may pitch next year on a shorter schedule than the
abbreviated one he's worked the past two seasons, according to
his agent Randy Hendricks.

Come on already! This is getting old.

Probably old news too, sorry, from MLB.com: "The Dodgers tried to pry Cabrera away from the Marlins last summer when they discussed a deal that would have sent Matt Kemp, James Loney and Chad Billingsley to Florida, but the Marlins balked." Thank goodness, but if that's a window into Colletti's soul, it's going to be a long winter.

Ok, one more...
Red Sox and Boras to meet. Between the Mets and Red Sox, Arod might get expensive pretty quick.

http://tinyurl.com/22vl9o

Note to GMs:

Quit paying Roger Clemens.

Thanks.

If you're a Pac-10 football fan, you should read this:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/allthingstrojan/2007/11/pete-carroll.html

Though I was a grad student at USC, I was never a big USC fan -- you tend to stick with your undergrad allegiances, plus I tend to prefer underdogs. But this interview gives me a measure of respect for Pete Carroll, because he is frank and open with a reporter/blogger.

Read it for a great example of what newspapers can do for their readers.

425 - I always say that my grad school is like my in-laws. I like 'em and I'll root for 'em, but they aren't quite MY family...

I'd gamble on Willis just to get rid of Pierre. Although, there would be some irony (or is that justice) to see Kent traded to the Marlins.

That was an old news extravaganza!

It would be ironic if Colletti traded one a player considered to be one of his successes, Ethier, in part so he could keep a player considered to be one of his failures, Pierre.

Ironic, that is, except perhaps for someone like Colletti himself.

LaRoche is going to be a 25-35 HR hitter.

Then...

He is eating himself into premature career DECLINE. I can see him as somebody like Beltre, who peaked in 2004

I'm pretty sure that most sabermetric thought doesnt include comparing Miguel Cabrera to Adrian Beltre, nor assuming LaRoche will hit 25-35 homers.

I think Canuck is confusing Sabermetrics with Moneyball. They are different. The Dodgers need a sabermetric approach for sure---and adding A-Rod/Miggy in their primes is just that. However, they dont need a moneyball approach bc they dont need to try to win on a 60mils budget. They need the Red Sox approach---sign superstars, develop a couple minor leaguers, stay away from the average mediocre veterans.

There's nothing wrong with valuing consistent performance (from veterans). Consistent excellent performance should be what the Dodgers look to acquire. Its when they acquire the consistent mediocre performance, and actually pay for it (Tomko, Pierre, Nomar) that they get hurt.

I cant imagine there'd be much complaining if A-Rod and Miggy come to the Dodgers. In fact, if Ned's able to get that done---he'd probably acquire a lifetime free pass even here.

428
When the threads get long, we all turn into Mr. Burns trying to remember Homer Simpson's name.

And there I did it, referencing "The Simpsons."

I'm in trouble.

430 Great. Now we're going to get a Simpsons quotefest again, because this site is full of nothing but low brows, no brows, and ignorami.

Would Coletti take 3 years of goodwill for getting rid of Pierre?

426. But how about your undergrad school versus the school you where you are now a professor. I'll admit, I've never looked at my dad the same way since middle school, when Missouri (where he is a professor) and Wisconsin (where he did undergrad and grad school) played in the second round of the NCAA tournament and he cheered by Missouri. Scarred me for life.

Ned was lucky last year when the Marlins declined the trade of Kemp, Billingsley, and Loney for Cabrera. I am hoping he gets lucky again this year when he tries to trade Kershaw, Elbert, and Kemp for a guy that may force Ned to put Loney back in the outfield.

432
If Pierre is all he has to offer, he'd do well to get 3 items from Goodwill.

Having read posts like 416, 422 and others, all I can say is STOP THE GM MEETINGS NOW!!
It may already be to late.

Or lock Ned in his bathroom.

I would rather save up for Santana for the 2009 season than sign AROD or trade for Cabrera. In 2009 Kent and Nomar are off the books and Schmidt only has one year left.

Oh, and just trade Kent already.

Is it true that Ogden Nash coined the term "nerd"

438 Never mind--it was Dr. Suess!

Yeah, Dirty Flea and a Nerd, Dirty Flea.... yikes, that's bad.

Furcal
Kemp
Loney
Martin
Nomar/Dewitt/LaRoche
Ethier
Young
Abreu
Penny, Lowe, Billingsley, Kershaw, Wolf/Schmidt

385 The problem with that approach is it makes you much harder to improve your team. If you ignore the flaws in that article and just go with what Silver says, in his scenario you have three pretty good players versus one amazing one and two below average ones. That first team has nowhere to go from there, but the second team can easily make themselves a better team by finding new talent. Schilling probably would be better than Kershaw right now, but team A-Rod could easily improve themselves by using Kerhsaw or McDonald instead of E-Lo. This is why a 70 run player is far more than twice as valuable as two 35 run players.

Reading about the Loney/Kemp/Billingsley for Cabrera trade that the Marlins bailed on actually made me a little ill. Remember that Colletti wanted to sign Luis Gonzalez for two years, not one. How many other times has he been saved from his own stupidity by others?

And the package that the Marlins are asking for now doesn't help the Dodgers at all. Two years of Cabrera in return for power hitting, ML-ready, cost-controlled sluggers (Kemp and LaRoche), and one of the top 15 starting pitchers in baseball (Billingsley), who also is cost-controlled. Then, let's throw in one of top pitching prospects in the game on top of that as well (Kershaw).

That trade is insane. And I could totally see Colletti going for it. I have no faith in his ability to walk away from a terrible deal, because he knows that he has to do SOMETHING, ANYTHING to justify his job to the boss with the itchy trigger finger. This is McCourt's legacy, no question about it. There's no slack cut to GMs who let players develop the Dodger Way.

I keep thinking back to Nate Silver's BPro article, where he accused Colletti of having a demented Munchausen by Proxy Syndrome. He has to hurt the team in order to make it better. If we swing that deal for Cabrera, Colletti would then need to find a new outfielder and a new starting pitcher. So say hello to Andruw Jones and Kyle Lohse. And in 2008, with a bulging payroll and increased ticket prices, the Dodgers will probably finish with a slightly better record than last year, just as they would have anyway without any moves this winter. But instead of our homegrown guys, it'll be with a roster stacked with Boras mercenaries. And Colletti saves his job.

It really was a dark, dark day when McCourt bought this team.

It was less than 6 months ago when Frank McCourt stood before a select group of DT posters and declared Ned Colletti the best decision he's ever made.

I''m not convinced that Ned is now, all of a sudden, on such a short leash. And isn't McCourt supposedly on the "keep and play the kids" bandwagon? Why would he let Ned trade half the farm?

444 - People from Boston are too far removed to grasp what a farm really is.

Well, at least the Marlins are one of my 2nd favorite teams. If one of those hare-brained schemes goes through, it looks like the Marlins would have a really good team stacked with tons of young talent.

444. I hope you're right, D4P

How's that statue of the fans coming along?

If the Dodgers want to trade youth then the team that really needs rebuilding is the Giants. Hu, Abreu, Pierre, and LaRoche for Matt Cain should help both clubs.

444 - If you haven't seen McCourt change his attitude on people in an instant, you haven't been payng attention.

433 Penarol1916
426. But how about your undergrad school versus the school you where you are now a professor.

For me, it's easy. My undergrad school is an in-conference rival of my current employer. So for me to switch allegiances would be the worst kind of betrayal. Also helps that my alma mater is (1) morally superior and (2) usually the underdog.

Go Bears!

429 - Best post out of the 450+, although I dont know if people saw it.

451 - I don't like the school you teach at either.

whoa, Chan Ho Park resigns with Dodgers?

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2007/11/136_13391.html

I cant believe the undervaluing of Cabrera and the overvaluing of the prospects to trade for him on this thread.

Cabrera is a young stud who has proven himself in the big leagues and if you can get him for LaRoche, Kemp, and either Kershaw or Billingsley, I would do it, assuming you sign Miggy to a long term deal. A player like Cabrera should not even be on the trading block.

Miggy hasnt even hit his prime yet and has not really played in a lineup with run producers around him yet look at his production and experience. Hes a star for the future in LA, while the prospects are just maybes. If you arent willing to make this deal, you better be willing to take all this money you are saving and sign Arod.

For all the money the Dodgers shell out for injured or mediocre pitching, why they are so afraid to spend or trade potential for the real deal is amazing.

If the Dodgers signed Arod and traded for Miggy, the Dodgers would be back where they should be every year, just like the Yankees, strong contenders and in the national spotlight.

454

Ha.

GM's want to be able to take credit for the things that work out with their teams. From Colletti's perspective, what credit can he gain from "Logan White's kids" helping the Dodgers? He wasn't even here when White drafted them, and he can't say that he hired White. I also doubt he is oblivious to people demanding that Logan White take over as the Dodgers' GM. Colletti surely feels that regardless of what happens with the Dodgers, he, personally, needs a "win." If he gets Cabrera he is going to be a hero to Plaschke and a whole lot of other people, even many people here. And if in the process he can send a bunch "Logan White's kids" 3,000 miles away, where casual Dodger fans will forget all about them, that too probably serves his personal interests.

455 is absolutely correct.

The Dodgers DO NOT have a single player in their lineup that strikes fear in opposing pitchers. Nobody that should ever require an intentional walk.

Sign a few of the prospects for Cabrera -- a once in a decade young sign -- and buy A-Rod.

The payroll is still reasonable given the attendance and the market. The lineup becomes the best in the NL.

458 455 you guys are forgetting about one thing with these potential deals. You are giving up two of the best young pitchers out there in Bill and Kershaw. Pitching will always beat good hitting. I would rather keep the lineup the Dodgers have now, let Kemp, Loney Laroche develop more power which they will and have some great young starters. Patience can't be overlooked because then you become a version of the Mets. Good for one year and then back to the same old mediocre Mets.

455 -- Your simply repeating the idiotic bromides about the value of "proven players versus potential" is not making the weak case you are trying to prop up any stronger. And Billingsley and Kemp are not prospects. They have proven, in the majors, all they need to for anybody with a brain to see that they are star-level talents. And why is a Padres fan trying to give the Dodgers advice? Don't pretend you have our best interests at heart.

The Two Jakes is a fine little movie. Saying it isn't as good as Chinatown is isn't saying much. Not many movies are as good as Chinatown. Polanski must have sold his soul to make as good a movie as that considering the other junk he's made.

My favorite Nicholson movies:

Chinatown
Five Easy Pieces
Carnal Knowledge
Prizzi's Honor
The Missouri Breaks
The Fortune

460 exactly, people are acting like Kemp and Billingsley are these unknown "potential" players. Kemp has power and goes the other way. He will hit over 20 homeruns next year easily if given the everyday job. Billingsley was the Dodgers best pitcher last year outside of Penny who wore down at the end.

The Dodgers were tied with Minnesota for 16th in the league in IBBs taken, this year. The Yankees were tied for 23rd.

459 - One Kershaw/Bills will go, but not both.

Let's assume the trade is: Kershaw, LaRoche (who becomes redundant), Loney (also redundant). Let's further assume that Cabrera is too fat to play LF, so he'll play 1B.

Infield: A-Rod, Furcal, Kent, Miggy. That's probably the best infield in the majors.

OF: Ethier, Kemp, Pierre.

This is a strong, athletic lineup with power and speed.

459 has it right, perhaps I'm overvaluing Kemp et. al., but I believe you are undervaluing our pitchers and their current and future value.

I wouldn't trade Kemp, LaRoche, and Kershaw for two years of Cabrera. Make it a three-way so that it was Cabrera AND Eric Byrnes, though, and I don't think I could say no.

How is "proven players over potential" a weak argument?

I'd rather have Cabrera, since he's most likely better now than LaRoche will ever be.

I'd rather hava A-Rod, bc quite frankly he's better than anyone on our team, or in the history of baseball will ever be.

There's definitely an argument to be made for keeping Billingsley/Kershaw. But the over-valuation of LaRoche/Kemp/Loney is mind-boggling IMO.

466 - Eric Byrnes? Ha, what?

459. Do you know how many "best young pitchers out there" never make it? Of course its a crap shoot, but the Dodgers are a team whose history should not have such long periods of mediocrity while they continuously try to plan a future around kids and prospects.

The fact the Marlins would let Miggy go for such a small price to me is amazing. You dont trade guys like that. The fact they have to financially is sad. As a Padres fan, I understand, but Marlins fans should be really upset that a player like Miggy will be dealt. Yeah they get young talent back, but despite the potential, they will be lucky if one of the three has any long term value.

With the Dodgers history as a national franchise who my father rooted for growing up in Brooklyn and who seemed to migrate west with the Dodgers, they should without a blink of an eye spend money on Arod and trade prospects for Miggy. Its the frickin Dodgers for christ sake. As great as Hanley Ramirez is, do you think the Red Sox miss him while they take Josh Beckett and win another ring?

Rarely do you win with a bunch of kids with potential without superstar players. You need superstars and to get players like Miggy and Arod is a no brainer for deep pocketed frnachises like the Dodgers. They should be all over these players. This is why I still dont think the Yankees can be ruled out for ARod. They know his value.

Sometimes things are so obvious you look for reasons to ignore what is right in front of you.

468- Eric Byrnes is like sunshine on a cloudy day. When it's cold outside, he's the month of May.

Furthermore, trading two young position players (Kemp/Loney, for example) and one pitching prospect does not "mortgage the future".

It allows the team to win now while hoping that several other young pitching prospects pan out.

It assures the Dodgers a seat at the table and, if young pitching develops, a shot at a dynasty. The idea that all of these young players are going to develop into players of the Cabrera/A-Rod caliber is ridiculous. 99% certain that none of these players will be that good.

Trades like that are why the marlins have won two WS since the last dodgers WS apperance..

Wow, I find it unbelievable that people are assuming that the Dodgers will be able to sign A-Rod in the first place. If anything Billingsley and Loney should be totally hands off because those two guys have proven themselves hands down. An infield with a converted fat 3rd baseman to first base over Loney and his sweet glove just kills me. That is losing a lot of defense at first base and (in my opinion) next years batting champ.

470 - Ha, I met the guy a couple times when he played for Oakland. He's a weird dude...

460. Your simply repeating the idiotic bromides about the value of "proven players versus potential" is not making the weak case you are trying to prop up any stronger.

Relax, man. Besides being inflammatory, this statement is an exaggeration. Yes, PJ said that Cabrera is proven and the Dodger kids aren't, but it's not quite the same thing as valuing experience over talent no matter what. Cabrera is not only a major league star already - he's still several years before his peak. He's basically the same age as a couple of the Dodger kids. Unless you think he'll peak early (perhaps due to his weight problems), this is nothing like advocating a trade of potential for an over-the-hill has-been (or even worse, for a veteran "never-was").

I too would prefer to avoid trading multiple talented young guys for a single talented young guy, even if the latter is better than each player in the former group, but not for the first time, you've gone too far in condemning PadreJeremy's comment. Please try to check words like "idiotic" at the door when responding to another commenter.

Personally, I'd be willing to trade LaRoche and a pitching prospect not named Kershaw (and maybe a guy like Hu or Abreu) for Cabrera. But that won't get it done, and I'd do everything I could to hang on to Loney and Kemp.

Another dud of a sequel:

http://tinyurl.com/2knpyz

Not that the original was Chinatown, but c'mon. It had some pizazz, at least.

461
I have officially given up hope.

460. Sorry I like to talk baseball and this blog has the most intelligent posters out there. Sorry I root for the Padres and you are right, I dont have the Dodgers best interest at heart. If it was up to me, the Dodgers would continue on their current path of signing mediocre overpriced or past their prime talents while they hope the kids, who they cant seem to decide when to allow to play regularly, may or may not come through. Every year they fail to win a world series or atleast play in one brings them down to the pack of teams that just play and dont win. Yes the Padres are in that group, but the Dodgers with their money and history should not be.

Maybe Im jelaous that my team could never think of signing ARod or wouldnt be able to trade for and sign a player like Miggy, but its fun to discuss it with fans of a team who actually could.

I like to think my posts are not just Padre homer posts but those that create discussion and when you say im saying that proven players are better then prospects is an oversimplistic view of my opinion. I think there are many Dodger fans who agree with what I am saying. Its just discussion.

469 so then who do the Dodgers pitch ever? I mean are they going to win by scoring the most runs in the league? They aren't getting a pitcher back for Billingsley or Kershaw. They are getting a third baseman. I just don't like trading young pitching away. You are saying the Dodgers should trade their best pitcher down the stretch last year. Colletti should be fired if he does that.

381 , don't even go there, the Phillies still have a speedy outfielder, and he just so happens to be a Hawaii'an who flies!

And nobody disagrees with this from 443 ?

one of the top 15 starting pitchers in baseball (Billingsley)...

The Dodgers don't need a third baseman. They need pitching. The Yankees didn't win a world series because he didn't hit 80 home runs. It was because he couldn't pitch. I would bet money that trading for Cabrera weakens the team, especially if they give up any pitching.
If the Dodgers don't get to the playoffs next year it won't be because they didn't score enough runs.

472 Yeah, I guess the Red Sox getting Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell from the Marlins had nothing to do with their 2007 World Series victory.

I like the cut of 479 's jib

I dont think the Dodgers should deal Billingsley, but dealing Kershaw should not be out of the question (for a Miggy--nothing less than that).

There'll be other pitching prospects come along (there are every year), plus Johan's a free agent that can be signed after 2008 anyways.

The Yankees didn't win a world series because he didn't hit 80 home runs. It was because he couldn't pitch.

Or, the Yankees didnt win the world series because the playoffs are a crapshoot.

Maybe they wouldnt have made the playoffs if A-Rod didnt hit his 55 or so homers either..

480 I do.

481 We allowed the fourth least amount of runs in the NL last year in a hitters park. We can't get much better.

469 Trade LaRoche for Matt Garza or (more likely) Kevin Slowey. Problem solved.

478 I like talking baseball too. It get prickly when it comes to trades and the Dodgers though because there have been some horrendous ones in the past.

480- Billingsley was 33rd in baseball in pitcher VORP, last year, while starting only 2/3 of the year. He was eighth in RA+ for pitchers with at least 100 IP. I'd be very comfortable calling him a top thirty starter (a number one, depending on how you define the term). Less comfortable saying he was top 15. I don't think he's going anywhere.

Were not the Red Sox. We don't already have a bunch of good players in their primes.

Build that first and then start adding.

Decent SI article...

http://tinyurl.com/2mjfp6

487 *gets

The Yankees didn't win the world series because they weren't good enough. I don't subscribe to the crapshoot theory.

There's more crapshooting discussion here than a rehearsal for "Guys and Dolls."

The Yankees didn't win the world series because they weren't good enough. I don't subscribe to the crapshoot theory

This would seem to imply either:

1. When Team A beats Team B three or more times in five regular season games, you inevitably conclude that Team A is better than Team B.

or

2. There is something different about post-season games that inevitably ensures that the better teams will win the series.

Guys and Dolls, we're just a bunch of crazy Guys and Dolls, oh yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. . .

485
The more we look at this thing, the more that I am in the ARON group. Perhaps some minor moves or trades to shore up the bench, get a backup for Martin, and maybe take a flier on a pitcher like Bartolo Colon, but if Miggy, as good as he is, costs Billingsley, that is a breaker for me. (Not sure he is top 15...yet. Maybe top 20, though.)

By signing ARod we would be able to deal LaRoche for a good young position player and a young pitcher without creating a hole in the long term.

475
Agreed.

469 - Putting aside the merits of Cabrera, the "it's the Dodgers, for Chrissake" argument actually would support CanuckDodger, since the team's glory years have never been defined by acquiring megaplayers for boatloads of prospects.

I would say that the Dodgers' biggest acquisition of the 1970s was Reggie Smith (close call vs. Dusty Baker and Jimmy Wynn). In the 1980s, it was Gibson, a free agent.

Smith was acquired for Joe Ferguson, Bob Detherage, and Fred Tisdale.

Baker came with Ed Goodson in exchange for for Wynn, Tom Paciorek, Lee Lacy, and Jerry Royster.

Wynn came for Claude Osteen and Dave Culpepper.

So really only the Baker trade provides an example of a major prospect outlay yielding a major payoff ... and a World Series.

That doesn't mean I wouldn't rather see the Dodgers spend money on Alex Rodriguez than Mark Hendrickson, Brett Tomko and Juan Pierre. But the fact is, almost all of the Dodgers' success, pre-free-agent era and post-free-agent era, has come from relying on homegrown talent. And every player on those World Series teams was certainly someone who at one point was a prospect that could have been packaged for a proven star.

By getting to the playoffs and winning the playoffs you are the best team. Seems pretty simple to me.

By getting to the playoffs and winning the playoffs you are the best team

So a team that wins the playoffs is necessarily better than a team with a better record that didn't make the playoffs (because of divisional organization)?

I don't buy that. I also don't buy that winning a 5 or 7 game series means you're better than the other team.

499 - You're saying the 06 Cards weren't necessarily better than the 06 RedSox?

495
Sit down, you're rockin' the boat.

475 496 I suspect most of us agree on two things (a) we wouldn't trade Loney or Kemp plus good young pitching for a widening Cabrera, and (b) we're generally convinced that Colletti is bound to make another ridiculous deal anyway. Because (c) who on here wanted Juan Pierre?

493 495 Luck be a lady tonight.

499 - also don't buy that winning a 5 or 7 game series means you're better than the other team.

How you propose to find the "best team" then?

If Colletti gets A-Rod, assuming he can still play a little SS, that leaves 40-50 starts for LaRoche at 3B, this year, assuming no big injuries to either Mr. Rod or Furry. He could platoon a little with Ethier (or Pierre could be sent to Bolivia to sell Ding Dongs for D4P, and the platoon could be Young, or another LHed OFer) for another thirty+ starts in the outfield. He'd be underused (assuming he stays healthy, too), but it's not like he'd have to be unloaded instantly upon A-Rod's arrival. He could get time to prove himself better than Hu or Furcal, for next year, assuming A-Rod could move. Or he'd drive up his trading value. Or his arms would fall off and he'd lose all value. That about covers it, I guess.

I don't think I'd want to be the top bidder in the Cabrera sweepstakes right now. At least not until after his arbitration hearing. Let the Marlins get a healthy look in the snoot of Cabrera's new salary and then see if they still demand three top tier pieces in exchange for something they can't afford. And instead of Jose Tabata and T.J. Beam.

If Team A beats Team B, Team B beats Team C, and Team C beats Team A, who's better?

This stuff happens all the time. If you're gonna decide who's better based on five and seven game series, you might as well evaluate individual players based on five and seven games stretches.

I am not angry and afraid at what Ned might do.

Even though the Yankees lost in the playoffs, I still think they had some pretty good pitching. I think they lost because they were outplayed and some bad luck. If those bugs don't attack that game in Cleveland, it might be a different story this postseason. Pettite pitched a pretty darn good game that night.

505 - So the best team is the team with the best record in baseball at the end of the season? That doesn't account for division weakness, etc.

How you propose to find the "best team" then?

I don't. The point of the season isn't to be the best team, but rather to win the World Series. If you want do designate the World Series winner "the best", that's fine, but it's also arbitrary.

I personally think that a 162-game record is probably a better indication of a team's "goodness" than a 5 or 7 game record.

that should say "now"

508
I'm sure the stat folks have come up with adjustments for schedule strength.

Does it matter who the "best team" is? It's the team that wins the tournament that is remembered. That's life/baseball.

499 Isn't this why the playoffs are a series rather than a one game show-down? I believe that the team that qualifies for the playoffs and wins the WS is the best team that season. Stats at the surface may seem to defy logic when assessing the "best" team but it doesn't matter what you did in April, May etc etc. Bottom line is if you played the regular season well enough to qualify for the postseason and then in October (when it really counts) beat the other playoff qualifying teams, you are the best team.

503
For me, it is not about being the best team, but winning the World Series. Being the best team requires a large sample size (regular season). The playoffs are about the matchup of your best players (especially pitchers) versus the other team's best players.

What happens when the Rockies #5 starter faces the Sox #5? In the big scheme of things, no one really cares. That is what the regular season is for and that demonstrates team depth and overall quality.

Everyone knows that the "best team" is the one with the most 3rd order wins. Even Joe Morgan admits that.

I just love how fear dominates Dodger Thoughts.

511 Third order wins does that nicely.

Placing aside the Miggy speculation for a minute, I propose the follwing:

What if the Dodgers send Billinsgley, LaRoche and Pierre to MN for Santana.

Bills had a good season, but we have 2-3 other pitching prospects coming right up behind him in Kershaw, McDonald, etc. Bills would appeal to MN the most since he's someone they can put in the rotation immediately. Our rotation sill looks very formidalbe with Lowe, Penny, Schmidt, Santana, plenty of options for a 5th starter.

LaRoche solves MN's hole at 3B, they can Punto to another position.

Dodgers probably would have to eat 1/2 of Pierre's contract, but at least you're rid of him.

Coletti can then go out and sign Jones or Hunter to fill in the OF and Lowell or A-Rod for 3B.

The lineup looks like (not in this order)
Furcal
Martin
A-Rod
Hunter
Kemp
Loney
Kent
Ethier

518 Your team has a 155 million dollar payroll.

499/509 But being the best/having the best regular season reacord isn't the ultimate goal. It's an important but fallible means to the ultimate goal, which is winning as many World Series as you can.

Teams don't complete to compile best indications of goodness.

494 I disagree. A crapshoot implies that all things are equal. That if you roll a die over a million times that 1 will come up as many times as a 6 or any other number. There is no correlation between this and the MLB playoffs. The Red Sox and the Rockies did not start the playoffs with the same probability of winning the championship. If anything the MLB playoffs are more like texas hold em where you start off with 2 starting cards. Some with greater probablities of winning the hand than others from the start. The strongest hands won't win every time but will most of the time. Over a million times the 2007 Red Sox would not have won the world series as many times as the Colorado Rockies. They probably would have won more because they were a stronger team. Conversely over a million times the Rockies would have won the world series some of the time but they would not have won as much of the time as the Red Sox.

509 514
Wow...I swear that I didn't read yours before I posted. I almost used the term "goodness" as well.

521
I agree that "crapshoot" is the wrong term if it means that two teams always have an equal chance of winning. But I would disagree with a claim that that the team who wins a given series would necessarily win 1. every series between those two teams, or even 2. more than one-half of the series between those two teams.

520
I don't think what you said contradicts what I said.

Am I the only person that is somewhat happy with Chan Ho comming back? I'm pretty sure that nullifies the chance of us dropping 8 mil on Colon. I know he had some awful seasons with the Rangers, but to be honest there hasn't been a good one there in quite sometime. He was injury prone in his time in SD and never really at full strength. I know im being optimistic when I look at what he accomplished in LA for those 6 seasons, but its better than Loaiza... right?

497 DodgerThoughts II (the prequel)

Cey, Garvey and Welch for Wille Stargel.

Wow, lots of Colletti bashing here today:

416 Colletti needs to be sedated.

419 I figure as a result that LaRoche and some pitching are gone, probably Kemp or Ethier too.

434 Ned was lucky last year when the Marlins declined the trade of Kemp, Billingsley, and Loney for Cabrera.

443 That trade is insane. And I could totally see Colletti going for it ... It really was a dark, dark day when McCourt bought this team.

I think a lot of people are overreacting based on unsubstantiated newspaper reports and personal bias. I won't bother to dig up the relevant quotes, but Colletti is on record as not wanting to trade young players. I think we should judge him on his record, and so far he has traded a few prospects (Guzman, Navarro) but held on to the vast majority (Billingsley, Loney, Kemp, LaRoche, Young, and on and on).

I'm pretty sure that nullifies the chance of us dropping 8 mil on Colon

Why would Colon cost 8 million?

522 or even 2. more than one-half of the series between those two teams.

I'm confused by this one. Are you saying that over a million 7 game series' (with all conditions being equal) the Red Sox would not have beaten the Rockies more than half of the time? Or even vice-versa? It would seem to me that one would have to win more than half the time. The likelyhood of these two (in fact any two) baseball teams being of exactly equal strength seems rather small.

Or are you saying that it is wrong to assume that a team who won a particular series in the actual 2007 playoffs would have automatically won that series most of the time. This I would agree with.

Also, Park hasn't had a good year since 2001...6 years ago!

He is going to be worthless.

Colletti was on AM 570 yesterday. Some interesting tidbits:

*Loney will be the everyday 1st baseman. Ned was 100% definitive.

*It sounds like Kemp will be an everyday outfielder (didn't mention which position).

*He won't trade any top young players for 1 year rentals.

*He hasn't spoken with Boras in a long time and claimed they have disagreements about the value of players.

I think its safe to assume colon will cost more than Park. I also think its safe to assume that Colon will continue the garbage pitching performance that he has the last 2 seasons. Seeing several of his starts the last 2 years its safe to say hes not at all the same pitcher he was even 3 years ago. Minor League contract to Chan Ho > Colon for anything more IMO

From a dodgers.com article...

because the club is eager to move Juan Pierre from center field to left to shorten the throws for his exploitable throwing arm.

That doesn't make sense. Shouldn't it be CF or off the team? I don't see the value of putting him in left field or anywhere else besides CF.

And yes, I know this has been talked about endlessly but this still baffles me considering this is basically a collective decision on Management as a whole and not just on Colletti.

Or are you saying that it is wrong to assume that a team who won a particular series in the actual 2007 playoffs would have automatically won that series most of the time.

Yes, though more generally, "a particular series in any playoffs".

It just hit me.

I was thinking about my Steelers and their great year, and I'm darn sure they are the "Anti-Dodgers." Observe:

For the last few years, the Steelers were smart to recognize most of the pieces were already in place, and in so doing:

1) Let Burress walk and not overpay for him
2) Promoted Parker and Holmes
3) Let Joey Porter shoot himself in the butt and take his big mouth to Miami
4) Gave Polamalu a nice contract
5) Didn't panic with Big Ben last year
6) Promoted a guy on the team to head coach (Tomlin) and not sign some big name.

Today, the Steelers might be the closest thing to what the Dodgers once were under the O'Malleys.

433 , 451 It's somewhat easier for me. I would love to have BYU join the Pac-10 and be a part of a more relevant conference, and wouldn't mind if they faced each other. I would probably prefer that the team with the better chance to do well that season should win. So a 6-1 BYU team versus a 2-5 Stanford, or vice versa, would make life easy. I think I can safely say I wouldn't have to worry about a 7-0 BYU team facing a 7-0 Stanford team, with the Rose Bowl on the line. If that day ever came, I'd first look for other signs of the apocalypse, and then I'd be happy for whoever won.

527
Not a big Colletti fan, but I am unsure that he would get the OK from McCourt to make a trade like the Cabrera for "all good Dodgers under 24".

He likes to tinker, but a trade this big will trigger the organizational accountability radar. I think that McCourt has the "win ling term" mentality and Colletti wants to win now. Hopefully this will keep both of them in line.

533
The obvious problem, of course, is that Management thinks Pierre's "bat" needs to be in the lineup.

530 C'mon Nate what's the dope on Lute's leave of absence?

Promoted a guy on the team to head coach (Tomlin) and not sign some big name.

You mean, steal him away from my Vikings?

539

No one is talking. Some think his Wife is sick or something.

540

Oops... Is that right? Sorry nate. Correction duly noted.

537
ling term
long term

535 actually, it was someone else who shot Joey Porter in the butt...

By the way, Nate, Adrian Peterson is a joy to watch! Nab a QB and the Vikings could make some real noise.

Palate-cleanser up top.

544

I meant figuratively. It was a pun that was supposed to describe how Porter shot himself in the foot by going to Miami. Instead of "foot" I used "butt" since he did get shot in the butt by someone else years before.

The big mouth is not figurative.

So it looks like Vin finally gets his wish and it will be something "he see's in his lifetime," where all base coaches are required to wear batting helmets.

If you really wanted to come up with a system that told you more often than not who the "best" team was, then the most logical way to do it, would be to scrap the divisions and leagues and just have every team play every other team the same number of times home and away, just like in most soccer leagues. Team with the best record at the end of the season is the champion.

So in 2010 when Miggy has won one of two MVP's and Matt Kemp still hasn't learned any plate discipline, and Andy Laroche's disk problems have kept him from fullfilling his promise, we can look toward Kershaw coming back from TJ surgery as our light at the end of the tunnel.

Yeah, we don't need no Miggy.
Age/EQA/Place
21/.300/15th
22/.323/7th
23/.336/4th
24/.321/6th

In my lifetime a hitter of Miggy's ability has NEVER come on the trade block at this age. I'd be curious if anyone could name a player of Miggy's ability who has ever come up on the trade block at this age.

Negotiate, sign him to a 5 year 100Million extension and trade the kids.
2 Max from (Loney,Kemp,LaRoche) + Kershaw
or
2 Max from the same group
+
2 more from (Hu, Abreu, McDonald, Elbert, D Young, Ethier)

No extension, no deal.

Or don't trade for him and keep the kids. I consider either scenario a win win deal and nothing to be up in arms about. If he trades the kids we end up with the best hitter not named Pujols. If he doesn't then we get to see if Kemp and company can continue their progress. Of couse the alternate solution is that Ned still trades Kemp and company and he doesn't pull in a Marlin as his catch. That is what we should be worried about, not that Ned is going after the biggest fish in the ocean.

527 I hope you're right. Of course, if the Dodger-Marlin trade last year really was proposed by NedCo, it negates your argument. Plus, remember, he was sticking by Little too.