I just noticed that the 40-man roster at Dodgers.com lists 32 controlled players and Mark Sweeney.

Maybe he was re-signed and it'll be announced soon?

1
Maybe it's just a mistake by whomever inputs the roster at Dodgers.com. Up until yesterday, David Wells and Luis Gonzalez were also listed on the 40-man, among others, even though they already declared free agency.

That said, I wouldn't mind Sweeney coming back. He'll probably sign in the $800k - $1m range.

Jon, I will purchase one blue shirt if the store is reopened.

I would purchase blue shirt.

I would purchase a blue shirt.

I lost my white T-Shirt before I ever got to wear it, so I'd order a long sleeved white T.

Jeff Kent is going to blow in 2008 and if I wasn't a Dodger fan I'd probably enjoy it very much. No 2nd baseman in the Post-Integration era has ever posted an OPS+ > 105 at the age of 40. Wouldn't you say with Kent's defense he has to post at least an OPS+ > 115 to even be on the field? Look at what Biggio did at age 39 and what happened to him at age 40. Some things you just can't stop. Sucking at 40 is one of them.

6 Yeah, but we also thought Kent would at least decline a little offensively this year. He's a special player. I can't say if he'll be good or not this year, but it's certainly not a certainty he'll be bad.

Assuming Kent puts up a 25 VORP this year (down from 40 and change) and a -15 (down from -13 this year) on defense, Abreu would have to be at +15, pretty close to elite defensively, to match his production. (You're going to have to trust me on this math for now, I'll do a further writeup in a few days).

I would purchase a blue shirt, but it would have to be a bloody big one.

6 I'm with you that it will be difficult for Kent to fight off Father Time in 2008, but I think he'll be better than Biggio.

Age / Biggio OPS+ / Kent OPS+

35 / 110 / 119
36 / 88 / 122
37 /96 / 133
38 / 104 / 119
39 / 104 / 121
40 / 84 / TBD

I think the Dodgers will be just fine at 2B in 2008. Kent will probably play 120 games or so, with Abreu filling in the balance (and will spell Kent defensively in late innings of most games).

I'd be willing to bet Kent posts an OPS+ of at least 110 next season.

Tigers capped an all-Jones day by resigning closer Todd to a $7 million, one-year contract.

10 There goes one potential terrible signing.

The key with Kent is that he's been a poor man's cleanup hitter for the Dodgers. If he can drop down in the lineup to six, as he should, then I won't really worry about him offensively. And hopefully, the Dodgers can put Abreu in for him in the late innings many nights.

Predicated on Pierre not batting eighth, and no new 3B:

Furcal
Pierre
Kemp
Loney
Martin
Kent
Ethier
LaRoche

If LaRoche and Ethier rake, so much the better.

12 I like that lineup. If that holds, the Dodgers' 3-4-5 hitters will be 23, 24, and 25 years old respectively. I wonder how often a middle of the lineup has been that young?

When I saw the "Ladies Only" section of the Dodger Thoughts store, I thought there was officially licensed Dodger Thoughts lingerie.

If the Dodgers move Pierre to LF (and that's a big if), and look to sign a CF, where does Fukudome rank among Andruw & Torii?

Jon, you and I know how special that broadcast is. I am glad that Dodger fans now have a chance to hear it for themselves. Vin has called a few perfect games by pitchers in his career, but in my mind that 9/3/69 broadcast is a perfect game by a broadcaster. Anyone who appreciates Vin will enjoy hearing that cd.

Stan from Tacoma

9
I'll take that bet provided he garners more then 350 plate appearances.

15 Not knowing about how he is defensively, I'd say below. Japanese player's power have not translated well to the MLB and he's coming off a serious injury. His ceiling is probably somewhere around .300/.380/.470 but I'd expect something more in the .280/.360/.430 neighboorhood.

Frankly, you could start shopping Kent as soon as LaRoche hits or A-Rod signed,

Dare to dream:

Furcal
Martin
Loney
Kemp
Ethier
LaRoche
Abreu
Pierre

or

Furcal
Martin
Loney
Rodriguez
Kemp
Ethier
Abreu
Pierre

Really, there isn't much thought that needs to go into the Dodger offense - other than how to get Pierre out of the lineup.

17 , 9
Provided he reaches a minimum of 350 PA, Kent will have an OPS+ of 110. Shall we bet the cost of a ticket to 2009 DT Day?

Exactly, or sign A Jones and make Pierre/Kent disappear.

Furcal
Ethier
Kemp
Loney
A Jones
LaRoche
Martin
Abreu/Hu

That would be one of the best up the middle defenses with pop from every spot in the lineup except 2nd base.

I buy me two shirts at least. I'm still shame-faced from last time. I didn't see the DT logo so I wasn't sure if I was on the right site or some dang thing.

(sigh)

Mark me down for dos.

I'm not sold on Furcal as a leadoff hitter. He's a career .349 OBP guy, and has only exceeded that mark twice. Not terrible, but not "obviously deserving of the leadoff spot" either.

Why not let Martin leadoff?

Steve Phillips just said on Sportscenter that most GMs are looking to Torii Hunter first before Andruw Jones.

Hopefully the Dodgers can capitalize on a potentially diminishing market for Andruw, the better player of the two.

23 - Fine with me. It's just that he has some power, so you might want to try to get a guy on base ahead of him. But the higher, the better.

20
Good by me.

Regardless, the team can ill afford another .333 OBP duo at the top of the lineup again in 2008.

The DT crowd does not provide a winner in this contest either:

http://tinyurl.com/29krvx

A-Rod would be so perfect....

Outside of Baltimore, is there any other team that would take Pierre?

If A-Rod was signed, The O's would jump at the opportunity to get LaRoche, and Pierre would fill a hole (snicker) for them.....Maybe Pittsburgh?....Doubt Snell could be had for that....

Pierre and LaRoche for minor leage arms...

Furcal SS
Martin C
Loney 1B
A-Rod SS
Kemp CF
Kent(sometimes abreu to the 8th spot) 2B
Ethier RF
Young LF

ah, such a dream....

29
I like the two shortstop alignment.

It's edgy.

29 ,30 The Dodgers do play Travis Hafner & Cleveland June 20-22, so the defensive alignment works.

Due to a general sense of pessimism, I think the most probable signing of the offseason is Andruw Jones (but what do I know?). Andruw would be worth the risk if we didn't already have the out machine, but just how well will he be holding down center after his extremely mediocre 2007?

His overall line in 2007 was .222/.311/.413/.724, which at least features an ISOd of .089. Still his ISOp was down 121 points from his peak in 2005 and his average was the lowest its been since 106 at bats his rookie year. His BABIP is only .248, well below the expected BABIP .292 for his 27.2 LD%, though he has been way under 3 years in a row. The real problem is that his HR/FB is down from the 20s in 05 and 06 to only 13.4% in 07. That is a huge decrease in power and since he doesn't seem likely to ever hit for average to be worth the contract he will no doubt get he will need to hit 35+ home runs a year. I worry that he won't get back there, but I still prefer him to Torii Hunter.

30. LaRussa would do it...

So do you align the two shortstops this way:
SS
SS

or this way:

SS SS

Due to a general sense of pessimism, I think the most probable signing of the offseason is Andruw Jones

I agree.

And I'm not excited about it.

18
"His ceiling is probably somewhere around .300/.380/.470 ..."

Just for comparison, Andre Ethier 2006:
.308/.365/.477 113 OPS+
Similar ceiling?

"...I'd expect something more in the .280/.360/.430 neighboorhood"

Just for comparison, Andre Ethier 2007:
.284/.350/.452 103 OPS+
Same neighborhood.

I stand red faced and embarrassed. Mr. Blackberry had his messenger pick up the Blackberry and left a thank you note with a $100 gift card. A lesson to me to reserve judgment.

35 - Being a Dodger fan in my life time has always been the bridesmaid, never the bride. Ned seems like a "quantity" guy more than a "quality" guy. He won't pony up for A-Rod, and (fingers crossed) doesn't sell the farm for Cabrerra, so he makes the biggest splash left with Andruw. If he hadn't already signed Pierre it wouldn't be a bad move, but Pierre would be about the worst LF in history.

36 Pretty much. "Ethier that walks more" was my initial impression.

37 Did he regift the gift card? (However, don't look a gift card in the mouth.)

Good show on both ends; yours to retrieve the Blackberry and make the effort to reunite it with its owner, and his for showing good etiquette and appreciation. My faith in humankind is restored.

37
No, don't reserve judgment. It's always better to shoot first and ask questions later.

That's my philosophy in life and six acquittals in court must prove that I'm right!

That SI feature someone linked to on the last thread gave me some hope that:

Torre and his coaches might decide the real problem on the team isn't Kemp or Kent, but Pierre.

They set some benchmarks for him, like increasing the number of pitches he's supposed to take.

Pierre fails to reach benchmark and otherwise doesn't improve.

He's benched.

Jones Kemp and Ethier lead the team on a tear through the national league. (or Young)

Pierre is given another chance, results like before. Benched.

Jones Kemp and Ethier lead the team on another tear through the NL.

Colletti says, Joe, what should I do.

Joe says, he's worthless, I can't use him. Put him on waivers. Hopefully someone will take him off your hands for 50 cents on the dollar and a low level prospect. Otherwise, just eat him.

Ned says, thank you Father.

Joe says, now go and sin no more.

This is off topic, but why would a coach go for an onside kick with a 43-0 lead?

>> Wyoming coach Joe Glenn apologized Monday for making an obscene gesture to the Utah team after the Utes tried an onside kick while ahead by 43 points. <<

http://tinyurl.com/2ndcqd

43
Wyoming's coach had been quite vocal during the week about how badly his team would beat Utah.

Sounds like a blood rivalry.

Wyoming started its season 4-1 and is now 5-5 similar to a large unnamed public school in Southern California.

Both of whom have humiliating losses to Utah on their resumes.

43
Because the Wyoming coach guaranteed a win.

46 yes, but Wyoming has an upside

Not even close on that one.

37 - He must read DT.

Stanford's basketball team has matched the football team in victories already. That probably hasn't happened this early in the calendar since - well, last year, but still.

I'd be more humiliated about the loss to a certain Catholic school who just got wood-shedded by Air Force.

I'm all about a blue shirt.

A-Rod or not, Mets' Wright staying at third

>> "When I spoke to Omar,'' Wright said, "he told me, `Be prepared to be the third baseman in 2008. That's what I took from it and that's the way I'm going about it.

"Alex Rodriguez's name did not come up at any point.'' <<

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21759896

52
Apparently a meeting is being held right now to fix that problem.

At least, it better be about getting rid of a certain person.

Duke gets so many calls at home.

Contrary to comments talk show host Larry King made to MLB.com over the weekend, Dodgers second baseman Jeff Kent has not decided whether he'll return to play the 2008 season, according to his agent.

He'll be back.

37 I was hoping all along he'd do that. Good for him.

57 - Here's my prediction: When Larry King retires, Joe Torre will replace him.

I'd be interested in 2 white shirts and 1 blue shirts if they get reissued.

Here's 10 big moves that need to happen

>> 6. Torii Hunter to the Dodgers

Juan Pierre is still under contract, but he's a massive liability for the Dodgers. He's terrible at the plate and roundly overrated with the glove. Yes, he's only one year into that deliriously stupid five-year, $44 million contract, but it's time to treat him as a sunk cost. That means unloading him for whatever you can get (rosin bags, used jocks, canned wine) or relegating him to a reserve role. Playing Pierre on a daily basis will only compound such a bad decision. Throughout baseball last season, only the White Sox endured worse production from center field, so the Dodgers badly need an upgrade. That brings us to Hunter. Defensively Hunter is exceptional, and he'd also provide L.A. with some much-needed power. Hunter's also more of a known quantity than the other premier center fielder on the market, Andruw Jones. <<

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7431662

Are the Dodgers really to whom the Yankees would realistically fear losing Mariano Rivera?

Rivera, who turns 38 on Nov. 29, said Monday if he couldn't reach a deal with New York, he would consider following manager Joe Torre to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The closer is expected to receive a three-year contract. "The Yankees are my first option," he said in Santo Domingo. "But if that is not possible, there is Joe with the Dodgers."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21754425/

61 - Yuck, though at least no Pierre.
62 - Why? I mean why? 3 years? Seriously? Why?

62
Is Joe the de facto GM, or just with respect to the acquisition of former Yankees?

61

The problem with that story is the fact that JP won't be traded. I just can't see Ned trading him unless he could convince Baltimore to put together a package with Tejada. I would be for a salary dump with Pierre, but just don't see that happening.

My gift card is the only good thing about this thread. I do not want Tori Hunter even if it replaces JP. That means having 2 larges salaries consumed by a combined average to above CF. I would rather live with JP as a fourth OFer and pursue AROD. And I certianly do not want a 38 yr old Rivera.

28 - well, that's only because I was not told about the contest...

I think every day forward from here increases the likelihood that Kent will not return. And personally, that doesn't bother me a bit. I've never liked the guy and think that his defensive liability will outweigh his offensive production next year.

Other than that, I really just don't know what the team should do beyond pick up a spot starter/long reliever type to round out the rotation. I'd like to see Young get a chance along with Ethier and Kemp, and I have this feeling that Hunter and/or Jones is going to be more trouble than they're worth.

65 - could Tejada play second, if Kent doesn't come back?

Ned traded Baez and released Tomko. I'm not holding my breath on a Pierre trade, but I would never say it's not possible.

67 A player that hits as well as Kent has to be historically bad for his defense to outweigh his offense. If he's 40 runs above replacement again next year offensively, he would have to be at -64 using Dewan's system to cancel that out. For reference, Ryan Braun was the worst fielder in baseball this year at -41. Kent would have to regress horribly both offensively and defensively for that to be true.

Tonight's best college basketball matchups:
University of Mary vs South Dakota State
Florida A&M vs Carver Bible College
Ecclesia vs Central Arkansas
Paul Quinn vs Troy

At least one of the schools listed above is a Division I school.

With Ohio State losing an exhibition game, maybe they will have a hard time with Wisconsin-Green Bay.

Indiana is struggling with Chattanooga right now. Always love to see them lose.

69 Could happen. I wonder would we have a massive creditation to the trader then? That trade is possible.

62

Do we even need him?

75 We probably need to add another reliever for roster depth. I wouldn't mind making Rivera the big expenditure this offseason.

I like Rivera too. Although I don't know how I could justify spending 12+mil a year on a reliever.

The next Dodger GM can trade Pierre. Ned can't. What is he going to do, tell McCourt "this guy I gave $45 million to, he is useless"? No GM can survive that.

77 It means 12 less million for Ned to be able to spend on somebody worse?

76 - I think signing Rivera would mean signing Sabathia or Santana much tougher next year. 10-12 a year for a reliever is insane.

78 - Unlike three months ago, Ned is vulnerable to the impatient McCourt whims now. Ned's past the point of merely saving face. It's win or else now, and the only question is whether he still thinks Juan Pierre is going to help him win. The answer to that question, for Ned, may well remain "yes," but that doesn't mean he wouldn't have a dumping price.

Ned will survive if the Dodgers win the division in 2008. If they don't, trying to spin Pierre as a positive isn't going to save him. It'll have to be some other liferaft.

10-12 a year for a reliever is insane

In addition to Professionalism, Leadership, Winnerocity, HavingBeenThereBeforeNess, etc., I wonder if Torre will also bring the following:

An expectation that the payroll is unlimited and ownership will spare no expense to acquire "his" players.

...?

I'm still trying to figure out who's butt Kent thinks needs kicking. :-)

>> "He holds players accountable for how they play, a butt-kicker that some of the young guys need. <<

http://www.sacbee.com/100/story/485277.html

55 What are you hearing, trainwreck?

84
They said they jumped the gun and it was a scheduled meeting to essentially get the recruits to feel comfortable with everyone associated with athletic department and the players. Also, they will be bringing recruits to tonight's basketball game.

Who knows what they told the recruits though, regarding coaching situation. Seems to be a lot of rumors that Walker is going to get the job and he is going to bring in an offensive coordinator from the NFL.

Mariano Rivera is/has been spoiled by the Yankees for so long I can't blame him for thinking every team is willing to burn 12 million dollars on relievers.

85 Not super thrilled about Walker as the head guy, but I guess that's what's going to happen. Hope it works out.

Better than Rich Brooks, I guess.

80 It wouldn't. The payroll heading into 2009 right now is (and this is a generous estimate) about 40 million.

81 This is a sad, sad situation and it's getting more and more absurd.

87 My friend, who is a huge Ucla fan with rich Ucla alumni parents and Ucla alumni season tickets keeps hearing Rick Neuheisel. Good luck with that. If you see him break out an acoustic guitar- go Animal House.

70 - I look at it more situationally than I think most here do. I have this feeling that Kent's defensive liabilities will cost the Dodgers more games than his offensive prowess will win.

That's one of the numbers I'd like to see, runs due to error for fielders. And then do a ratio to runs created offensively. Adding his poor rating in the (+/-) ranking, I don't think Kent would look as valuable.

Put me down for two t-shirts.

Neuheisel seems to controversial for UCLA.

90 I would be fine with Walker or Neuheisel, though neither would be my first pick. I'm not worried about Slick Rick's past transgressions. They weren't exactly earth shattering.

Just up at Los Angeles Times:

Colletti explores free-agent options

>> But Colletti left open the possibility of signing a free-agent center fielder or third baseman. He wouldn't discuss any specific player.

The need for a center fielder would arise if the Dodgers, as expected, move weak-armed Juan Pierre to left. Pierre's potential replacements include Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter and Aaron Rowand. If the Dodgers fail to lure one of them, they could move Matt Kemp from right to center. <<

## The prize at third base would be Alex Rodriguez, but Colletti said the Dodgers still haven't decided whether they will pursue him. Rodriguez could cost more than $30 million a season. ##

%% Right-hander Chin-hui Tsao, who was out-righted to triple-A Las Vegas on Friday, elected free agency %%

http://tinyurl.com/3x77ua

93 After he won the lawsuit vs. UW, I'm not sure how controversial he is any more. I know he was considered "stolen" when he jumped to Colorado, but I'm not sure how that would have an impact any more. I do think he's a terrible human being with a dead soul and a stupid sweater vest.

Also, when my buddy and I were brainstorming, we couldn't come up with someone good. The bet I came up with was Mike Price.

95 - talk about burying the lead...

Colletti said he considered the Dodgers' present options at third base to be viable. He said he is hoping that Nomar Garciaparra will recapture his 2006 form, when he was the National League comeback player of the year, and that he has been encouraged by the performances of Andy LaRoche at the Baseball World Cup in Taiwan.

Looks like another "kick the door down" situation for LaRoche. I just hope he hits .630 in spring training.

96 Mike Price is less controversial than Rick Neuheisel?

Roll Tide, anyone?

I got no faith when it comes to the athletic department and football.

98 I didn't say less controversial. I said "best I came up with." I don't care about the controversies either way. Hell, I'm only a vague fan of Ucla. I just despise Rick Neuheisel, and I think Price is a good coach who made one bad decision. My overall point was that we couldn't think of someone who was tailor made for Ucla.

97 - I also like the idea of getting Alexei Ramirez, who can play both center and second base. He led the Cuban league in home runs, and the most capitalistic of all baseball stats.

100 Gotcha.

I join trainwreck in my faithlessness in this entire endeavor. But we shall see.

97 95 - talk about burying the lead...

I couldn't include everything. It's against the rules. :-)

Chris Petersen. If you can get Boise St to where they are now, then you can get UCLA talent to 10 wins year in year out.

103 - true. My quote is just what jumped out at me in that article.

104 - but will all the trick plays work in the Pac-10?

104
Various reasons why that will not happen.

He gets paid better at Boise St. now and he wants his coaching staff to get paid well too. UCLA wants someone with a longer track record and someone who has ties to the school. There are questions whether he could recruit in the LA area also.

102 I don't profess to know (or care all that much) about the machinations of the Ucla athletic program. That's why I threw up my buddy's connections. Just throwing out what I heard. I do root for the teams, though. I'm gonna check out a Campbell Hall game this year to see first hand what Jrue Holiday is all about.

Wow. My Dad passed away a couple of years ago, and my mom gave me a couple bottles of fine cognac that he'd gotten over the years but hadn't opened. (Not like him to leave booze untouched, but . . .) So, after a day that started with two Springsteen tickets falling into my lap and my being unable to make the necessary arrangements so I could use them, and then proceeded to get progressively worse, I thought I might have a glass. Went to open one of them that was still in the box, a Kelt "tour de monde" (it boasts that, before bottling, they put it in oak barrels and sail it around the world for some sort of ocean-rolling aging) and inside there was a note.

My dad was a doctor. The note was from a patient, thanking him for saving his life so he could see his grandchildren born.

The world is something else sometimes.

(Bottoms up.)

109 Cheers :-)

109 wow. that's amazing and fantastic. My father will leave behind a legacy as "guy on stilts" from Renaissance festivals. I'm less than proud of my lineage.

109
Great story. My father definitely did not leave any untouched booze before he passed away.

Booze in the Timmermann household was stored in a cabinet with cleaning supplies. I think whiskey doesn't go well with Windex.

Here's to Sam's dad. And Sam.

Hey, that LA walk sounds fun. Anybody from Ventura County going or can recommend how to get there from Oxnard without a car. I already checked Amtrak and Metrolink without look.

look--luck.

Thx.

113

"I think whiskey doesn't go well with Windex."

I'll be the judge of that...

Cal State San Berdoo beat Weber State but it doesn't count as a win for them because they're DII and it has to be an exhibition game for them under NCAA rules. But Weber State gets credit for a loss. It literally was a no-win game.

CSUSB's next game will be an exhibition for them also.

Posada just re-signed with the Yanks: 4/52

Sam thanks for sharing.

my granddad was a renowned science ts and my grand mom helped him now there is a test named after my grandparents eve and Aden burn pronounced Coburn.

119 San Berdoo almost made it to the DII finals and were favored to win it all last year.

120- How old will Posada be at the end of that deal?

While you want for the Penguins game to start:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XafWnuJWYvA

sorry there is a lot of typeos in that but i don't have the time to redo them. bye guys.

Lavin looks sad.

I'm not quite sure about how I feel about Grand-fathers and liquor cabinets now, but I have begun to firm up my strategy for the D's during the off season. In order of preference I would
Do next to nothing, but perhaps try to pick up an above average young starter--or------ Sign A-rod to the shortest possible contract even if the yearly salary is outrageous. This way we would spend most of our money (between A-Rod and Schmidt) and be forced to play our young talent, which together with A-Rod would make us one of the best teeams in the ML. I know this is sort of coercing Colletti And McCourt to win, but they may well forget or ignore it

I haven't seen a game from Pauley in a while -- is the court always that busy with decals and whatnot?

124 If it's a 4-year deal, Posada will turn 40 during the final season of the contract.

129 OK -- I see that a couple of the big ones are for this tournament. Not sure about the others (except for Wooden Court, of course).

O'Reilly Auto Parts, National Association of Black Coaches, and another that combines all of them.

126 - Its cool. My grandparents were scientists too.

This game is very un-Howland-esque so far.

Sam - Cool story, thanks for that.

The injured players must have had a dress code enforced for this game. Darren has worn just baggy jeans and a shirt on Friday.

134 Part of it is his lack of depth at the guard position. Without Collison, he has only a walk on as a true backup for Westbrook, so he does not subsitute as freely as he has done in the past.

USC's next opponent is The Citadel. The Bulldogs lost to the other USC by a score of 102-43 tonight.

I think the local USC will be 1-1.

Why Penguins?
http://www.ysu.edu/sports/traditions/nickname.htm

interrupting; one blue please!

That Posada contract is insane. I mean, I know he had a good year, but 4 yrs/$52 million?!

140
Actually it's $52.4 million.

140
The Yankees just use the same contract over and over, and cross out the name.

Matsui, Damon, and now Posada signed the same 4/$52m contract.

140 It's what happens when Jose Molina is one of the top five free agent catchers.

We now know who voted for Loney:

>> The reason I voted Loney third -- and apparently was the only person in the nation to do so -- was in large part because of his defense. <<

Kevin Pearson

http://www.beloblog.com/Pe_Blogs/baseball/dodgers/

144
Umm... OK...

Bob, in case you had not heard, a certain former player from that school you no longer acknowledge is going to be the keynote speaker at American Library Association conference in Philadelphia this January.

Also, there will be fans on the message boards who will complain about the empty seats at Pauley.

140 - It's a little crazy, but when you're a big market team with a big market payroll, you can do things like that.

I wonder what people around here are going to be saying when it comes to re-signing Martin in his mid-30s. Or what the conversation would have been had the Dodgers not traded Piazza all those years ago.

The yellow C in UCLA is strange.

146
I always knew that Charles Rochelin would finally get his due from the ALA.

144 Pence had similar numbers and more plate appearances at a tougher position. He was the right choice for third. No metric placed Loney's defense at anything but slightly above average this year.

147
Apparently at least one seat is empty since you're commenting.

152 I gave my seats to some friends, I'll be there tomorrow to see Youngstown play Weber State.

CSUSB must love the fact that it gets to play on ESPN.

Even though the game won't count in their standings. CSUSB hasn't even loaded its current schedule and roster on its website.

109 So, how did you like the cognac? Great story.

111 If your dad was on stilts in 1971-73 down here in SoCal, I probably saw him. There is nothing bad you can say about someone who entertains people.

54 and 97 are examples of owners trying to make Boras and A-rod uncomfortable. "Y'know Scott, we really don't need your client. Sure, he'd be nice to have but if we can't meet your price, c'est la vie you know what I mean babe?"

Just wanted to chime in with a completely unrelated thread, like I usually do :)

The ongoing writers strike is going to kill television the way the Baseball Strike nearly killed baseball. Speaking as an avid TV fan, I can't say how foolish it is for both sides to act like such children. In the end both sides will lose far more than either side can gain in negotiations.

The odds are, this strike will wipe out the "world series" of TV, sweeps and season finales. LOST and 24 may have to take the whole year off. One has to wonder: is this worth it?

---

Things I will do to counter the dearth of original programming:

Watch the Price is Right More
Tune into "Deal or No Deal"
Increased NBA viewership
Go play water polo at night
Jump on Youtube
Go out to eat
And if I have to, read books.

A question, if anyone has an answer: How does the writers strike affect movies? Do films stop production as well?

156

The preceeding announcement and all other output from LogikReader does not necessarily reflect the views of Jon Weisman, Dodger Thoughts, the Baseball Toaster, or the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.

---

I'm still surprised that Lowell hasn't reached a deal with the Red Sox yet. I thought that contract was a shoo-in. If I can make it to Mid-December without seeing a bad signing, I'll be oh so happy.

156
There will certainly be less on my DVR to watch when I get back from trip to Europe in January.

156 - You're really going to open this can of worms up just as I'm heading off to bed?

Both sides are indeed like children. One side is the bully in My Bodyguard, and the other is the small kid who decides it's time to stand up.

For example, the writers are asking for, if I recall correctly, 2.5 percent of Internet streaming revenue. The studios are making the argument that Internet streaming revenue is so low (a patent lie) that it doesn't make sense for them to offer any percentage. Zero. Apparently, people are supposed to believe they don't understand the concept of percentages.

The studios also claim that when they show, for example, an episode of "The Office" online, that's promotional and not an actual airing. Even though the show airs in its entirety and ads are sold.
Regardless of how big the pie is, experience from the VCR and DVD eras shows that if the writers don't get their share early, they'll never get it. Writers do not get jack from DVD sales.

It's blatant bullying. So you have to ask yourself, is it worth it to stand up to blatant bullying?

For more info, go to variety.com/strike.

Films will not halt production necessarily, but typically, rewrites on films continue when a film is in production, so it is very problematic for them to continue. Basically, you might expect 2009's films to be really, really bad.

With the writer's strike, maybe there can be more shows like the one I just watched. On Fox Soccer Channel, they showed an English Premier League game that was announced by two fans, one for each side but both friendly to each other. Once I navigated through their heavy accents I enjoyed their commentary. I started thinking there could be something like that for American games, baseball, NFL football, and so on. They could hold a contest. But then I got scared thinking of potential fan announcers (fan-nouncers)...

159 - can't the writers hire Adam Baldwin to protect them?

156 - I disagree to in every way. This strike is probably the most fundamentally important and interesting thing that has happened since the invention of the television, perhaps more so. Its bigger than the obvious part, that the internet will be the future of episodic video entertainment and the people who create that type of entertainment right now should get paid something for doing it in the future, because it might mean that television and the internet will be the same thing as far as the next contracts are concerned (provided the writers win). It could mean a fundamental change it what it means to be a writer/director/actor for television or film in the future. Once episodes of a television show on the internet are under guild rules, then soon any video on the internet is a candidate for guild protection. An entire new set of guide (guild) lines just to define what exactly constitutes a show will have to be included in the agreement. There has never really been such thing as "indie" television, but that could change (among other things). I am unequivocally on the side of the writers, but beyond that, I am just really excited in general about the philosophy of this strike on both sides. The results of this strike might change the future of our entertainment in a fundamental way.

161 - I almost wrote that myself ... ultimately, Baldwin and that big bald guy are the lawyers or negotiators.

156 - "In the end both sides will lose far more than either side can gain in negotiations."

If only this were true. But the fact is, there could be a real winner in this strike, which is why it has the potential for going so long.

Okay, I'm going to bed - really bad timing on this conversation, but hopefully I won't regret it going on without me.

Bill James' 2008 player projections are out. Here is how he projects a few Dodger players of interest. vr, Xei

Player /Ave/Obp/Slg/Ops
Kemp /.322/.365/.521/.873
Ethier /,304/.371/.477/.847
Kent /.290/.368/.486/.854
Martin /.292/.379/.456/.835
LaRoche /.275/.367/.458/.825
Loney /,321/.372/.465/.823
Nomar /.292/.347/.451/.798
Furcal /.286/.352/.403/.755
Pierre /.298/.343/.361/.703
---------------------------
AROD /.300/.406/.586/.992
A.Jones /.253/.343/.491/.834
T.Hunter /.274/.329/.482/.811

This is one of those strikes where "a pox on both your houses" is not the appropriate response. You can question the WGA's tactics, but the justice of their cause is impeccable, and the mindless greed of the producers is astonishing. Logik is right, it might just kill off the golden age of episodic TV we've been experiencing the past 10-20 years, and for what? The mindless corporate "go for the win" mentality is just as toxic to them as it is to the writers and to us consumers. Well, not to "them" the well-paid executives who will ride the gravy train til it runs out of track, but to the companies they are feeding off of, and their stockholders.

165 those kinda numbers make me wanna take slappy to the shed

166 I'm rooting for the WGA, but I'm not putting my money on them to come out on top.

168 I'm not really familiar with their union... do they have enough money in it to keep them going for an extended period of time?

156 - where do you play water polo?

170

I joined this IM league at UCSB. I'm pretty raw at it, but it's a lot of fun.

171 - ah, very cool. I played for a long time, but haven't for a while... lots of rule changes from what I hear, but I'm still thinking of joining a master's team some where around Orange County.

165
A very quick and dirty average of those projections for the current 8 (including Nomar instead of LaRoche) is .301/.362/.453.

Replacing Nomar with A-Rod moves the average up to .302/.370/.469.

169 We'll find out. Jon knows a ton more about this stuff than I (obviously).

Ok, ESPN just ticked me off. They've got an article on baseball free agents with an "in free" tag on it but when you click the link it takes you to the insider sign in page.

166 If I were the WGA's PR man, I would do a variation on Benaiah's post at 162 . I would establish the WGA as the leaders in conceptualizing the new markets for scripted entertainment, show how real it is, how it's already happening. Talk about how the one thing that becomes immediately apparent on the Internet is when you don't have the content. In my business now, that's the biggest challenge. We set up web sites, but if the writers and editors can't deliver, the best, flashiest designs quickly look terrible. Not all the content comes from WGA, but the content that hooks customers, makes them keep coming back, craving more, wanting to find out what's happening next...that's where the writers are in the picture. In the limited world of network TV, yeah, you can get away with replacing sitcoms with game shows. On the internet, you can't be so lazy. If the studio want to be players on the 'net, they'll have to appeal to many audiences, not just the "mass audience" that used to come to them because there was nowhere else to go. Some of those audiences, likely the most desirable audiences for advertisers are going to want content like The Office, or Friday Night Lights, or Lost. They'll want high-end comedy programs like Daily Show. If the studios and their internet channels aren't providing it, the audience will find it somewhere else. Then what will the networks have? Sports? The NFL, NBA and MLB will start their own networks, in fact they already have. The studios' only discernable point of difference is their ability to deliver high-quality scripted productions, featuring well-known actors in well-constructed stories that have legs. By trying to shut the writers out of that future, the studios are guaranteeing their own demise. By working with the writers to shape the future, the studios can maintain a strong foothold in the internet.

I'd back that up with data, various metrics and stuff...that's the campaign. High road all the way.

Can the WGA strike separate deals with individual studios? I'm sure the producers' believe they're on their way to breaking the WGA, but in fact it would be much easier to break the AMPTMP or whatever the heck it's called. Wouldn't Fox like to keep '24' on schedule? Or Disney ditto with 'Lost?' What an advantage they'd have over the competition if they cut a separate deal that would allow that to happen.

Adam Baldwin is my favorite Baldwin.

Mostly because he played a great part in one of the best series ever on television killed by one of the worst networks. Joss should have stuck with the frog or UPN or gone the immediate syndication route.

173 For comparison, if the Dodgers' starting 8 hit .301/.362/.453, here are some recent teams with similar numbers (factoring in pitchers and bench giving a lower total team OPS):

2004 Cle - .276/.351/.444, 858 runs
2006 Phi - .267/.347/.447, 865 runs
2003 Col - .267/.344/.445, 853 runs

And some similar recent teams to .302/.370/.469:

2006 NYY - .285/.363/.461, 930 runs
2007 NYY - .290/.366/.463, 968 runs

(Ironically, both teams had A-Rod!)

In 2007, the Dodgers scored 735 runs.

176 Fox is happy to be running American Idol against in January with very little competition.

I think the irony police have an APB out on me.

177 Firefly's failure is a great mystery to me. Especially since dross like Heroes lives on.

181 - Firefly and Dark Angel are two shows that I would have loved to have seen run their course.

61 brings up an important point that I think deserves to be re-emphasized: "Throughout baseball last season, only the White Sox endured worse production from center field..." than the Dodgers...so, why would ANY non-White Sox team want to trade for him, unless he were to become the Lowell to, say, Billingsley's Beckett?

156 et al, now is a fine time to check out the coolest sport on Earth...yknow, the one that just brought that big Cup to Anaheim!

And Jon (for tomorrow I suppose), where can we find that updated list of claimed #s? Will they be sidebar-ed at some point? Or...maybe they'll be appearing on the shirts...?!?

Oh, and if Beckett wins the AL CY instead of Sabathia, will that be East Coast Bias or just a plain ol' traveshamockery?

183 The full list is here:

https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/860522.html

176 - You have to have a strong bias not to think that the WGA is on the side of angels here. My only concern is that the stakes are so high (6 corporations could own the guilds' presence on the internet for the foreseeable future or instead maybe the oligarchy gets broken) that the "producers" will have a strong incentive to take it to the absolute limit. In the end, the Writers can't win a war of attrition against News Corp, Disney, Viacom, AOL Time Warner, GE and CBS. I don't know who wins a long war, but I think it is obvious who you should root for. On the other hand, nearly all of the media is owned by the corporations the writers are striking.

186
But what if you're a member of the Sumner Redstone Marching and Chowder Society?

Check out this post by Marc Andreessen. The writers might be better off in the end without the studios.

http://tinyurl.com/2gwxzl

The biggest problem with the new Beowulf movie is that, after all the glossy CGI work and 300-style advertising, it's still Beowulf.

The Beowulf copyright has been in the Timmermann family for centuries.

184 Speaking of Sabathia, here's something to think about for the "never gonna see another 300-game winner" crowd. C.C. has reached the century mark in wins (maybe he should highlight the letters C in his name now, a la UCLA!) through his age 26 season.

Here are some other pitchers with their win totals through age 26:

Blyleven - 122 wins (287 career)
Sabathia - 100
Clemens - 95 (354 & counting)
Maddux - 95 (347 & counting)
Seaver - 95 (311)
Sutton - 83 (324)
Carlton - 77 (329)
Kaat - 73 (283)
Glavine - 73 (303 & counting)
Ryan - 69 (324)
Jenkins - 69 (324)
John - 59 (288)
Unit - 24 (284)

Of course, there are counter examples, young'ns that flamed out after an early hot start (i.e. Dwight Gooden). But, since 1901, the only 300-game winners with more wins than Sabathia through age 26 are Walter Johnson & Christy Mathewson. I think that's pretty cool.

190 So, you're family is to blame.

Duly noted.

192 Ugh. Your/You're. I caught it a half-second after I hit "Submit."

Grr...

"You're the family to blame." That's what I meant. Then I changed it.

Timmermann's presence makes me explain every typo. I hate that.

189 Medieval lit scholar here. A plague upon you!

Personally, I plan to see Beowulf and pretend it has a different title.

I can hardly wait to fail the student papers based upon the movie. Those are going to be fun! Grendel's mother is so not a seductress.

Hmmm. Maybe with the writer's strike, people will go back to reading things like Beowulf. Yeah, right. It's nice to dream.

195 Is liking Beowulf a prerequisite to be an intellectual? Because if it is, consider me a member of the unwashed masses. It's as boring as all get out.

I'll stick to Le Morte d'Arthur, though I dislike most Medieval lit. I know I'm supposed to like it. But I don't.

196 Nah ... it seems to be a prerequisite for being a geek though. It's one of the few areas of canonical literature that science geeks embrace. Thank you, Mr. Tolkien. From "Big Bang Theory" the other week: "I call Frodo."

I'll forgive you for not liking medieval lit, since you at least know how to spell "Le Morte d'Arthur."

Given how boring I find Henry James, a few would question my right to be called an "intellectual," so I'm no expert here. Not all "great literature" needs to be your cup of tea.

197 I did a lot of work on the Arthur legend. First as undergrad work, later as a fanciful book project that never got more than two inches off the ground.

I used to go out with a medieval lit professor. Actually she was a medieval lit grad student. She's a prof now. Chaucer expert and all that.

Big baseball fan too.

Somewhere, gpellamjr's radar is pinging like crazy. This is his wheelhouse.

A lot of my Arthur research was for a series of classes on history and a society's collective memory. Specifically, how a society/nation/group codifies mythology, or creates a history to rally around. Arthurian legend was a huge part of the research.

In my younger and more ambitious days, It made for a great book. Today...Not so much.

"Just don't take any class where you have to read 'Beowulf'"-- Woody Allen to Diane Keaton in Annie Hall.

And why is Angelina Jolie yet again playing mother to someone (an actor) who is her age or older? Of course, it's Crispin Glover so all bets are off when it comes to normalcy.

Seeing it in 3-D might be kinda cool tho.

I will be ordering a shirt this time around. Either a long sleeve white or a short sleeve blue, I haven't decided yet.

202 With Grendel's mother on the front?

200 Sounds cool. I wish I had some useful way to respond, but grading too many bad papers tonight has fried my brain. Thanks for tossing that out, though.

199 And for tossing that out.

All very interesting.

Going to bed now ... dreaming pleasant thoughts of Beowulf being the Dodgers new cleanup hitter.

I think the writers have a couple of factors in their favor (although I'm not sure whether it'll be enough to beat the huge corporate firepower of the Big Six):

- they have the internet as a means of communicating (apart from the traditional print/news media). With blogs, YouTube, etc they can give the straight scoop on what's happening, how they feel, and so forth. That combined with the large 'net presence of fanbases for shows like Lost, Heroes, the Whedon fan collective, and so forth means they do have a large number of people indirectly supporting them.

- the Big Six are also corporation who answer to shareholders... and it's my (faint) hope that if the strike goes on awhile shareholders will increase pressure on the studios to simply broker a deal and get back to work.

The corporate demands are such an obvious power-grab, and the WGA's demands so modest, that I can't see the Big Six winning the PR battle. In the short term, they've done a good job of painting the writers as spoiled rich people... but since the strike began, the writers have been much better at rebutting that.

Three pieces that anyone interested in the strike should read:

Damon Lindelof (LOST): http://tinyurl.com/28o2z3
Marshall Herskowitz (thirtysomething): http://tinyurl.com/387crx
John August (Big Fish, Corpse Bride): http://tinyurl.com/2e2bfd

Phew.... back to baseball.

So: anyone want to take a crack at explaining Jorge Posada's 2007 season?

1. OPS 103 points higher than 2006
2. OPS 109 points higher than career average
3. OPS 25 points higher than previous season high
4. SLG 50 points higher than 2006
5. SLG 64 points higher than career average
6. SLG 16 points higher than previous season high
7. BA 61 points higher than 2006
8. BA 61 points higher than career average
9. BA 51 points points higher than previous season high

From what I can tell, this is mostly due from a big jump in BABIP, from .307 in 2006 to .389 in 2007. But that just begs the question. Why did his BABIP jump so much?

Given that he was 35-6 years old and a catcher and that 2007 was a contract year, I'm not 100% content attributing all of this to "luck" or "chance". Something's fishy.

200 Maybe that's why I woke up at 8 am. Give me the Iliad any day. Of course, I probably only prefer it because my Greek is 780 times better than my OE.

204 Starting this evening, I will have to grade 80 papers on the Christian apologists. From the drafts I've seen, I'm in for a long couple of days. Justin Martyr, Athenagoras, Tertullian, these guys are all boring to begin with-- then add in the analysis of my students. To top it off, the prof told the students not to include Origen in their discussion! Origen! The one guy who could have made this a remotely entertaining undertaking for me.

206 Certainly it looks odd since he had a career year in his 13th year in baseball at age 35 but the contract year might be the reason and he has always been good. I'd give him the benefit of the doubt but I'm not sure I'd pay him based on the assumption that it would continue. I'm really glad we didn't sign him.

Stan Musial at age 36 had his best year since age 30 and finished 2nd in the MVP vote. Odd stuff happens sometimes.

207 Is this just ancient stuff or is Francis Schaffer in play?

173 - It gets better when AROD replaces Pierre instead of Nomar/LaRoche.

1. I'm saving my movie dollars for Sir Gawain and the Green Knight.

2. I have looked and looked and, while the web is bursting with information presented (often in compelling and amusing form) from the writers' POV, I cannot find an understandable or credible explanation of the producers' position. To me, the producers are the owners trying to explain why the reserve clause is fair.

3. Ratt, the congnac was rich and wonderful. I realize not everyone drinks, but of the forms of drinking, sipping something strong and dense like this, esp. with a headful of good memories, is pretty high on the list.

Here's the stuff: http://www.interbevusa.com/KeltCognacs.shtml

210 Great story about your Dad. I have a few great one's about my Dad that are some of the treasures I pass on to my daughter. Enjoy!

Never had to read Beowulf.

New post up top.

Loved your story Sam, enjoy the memories.

206

The quick answer is that some of what he has done is real. The 2006 Posada was very similar to the 2007 Posada, but in 2006, he got unlucky on BABIP and in 2007 he got lucky. The 2006/07 Posada, however, is a different hitter than the pre-2006 Posada. In 2006 he did something that changed his swing. His LD rate jumped from 17% to 20%. Correspondingly his GB% went from 50% to 40%. 2007 continued that trend, so I think you can rely on this as a real change.

Overall, the expected result would be: more singles, more doubles, fewer HRs (but not dramatically so).

214
That sounds reasonable, though I'm still expecting a big drop-off between 2007 and 2008. 2008 will probably be much closer to 2006 than to 2007.

hey jon. I'll be ordering a shirt this time too. late posting, but thought I'd put it here just in case you are keeping the tally in one place.

I would like two shirts: one "male" and one "female." Thanks.

I missed out on the first of Tees. Definitely will be on the ball this time around. Sign me up for XL