Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
From Ken Gurnick at MLB.com:
Dodgers fans alarmed by the names and numbers of prospects demanded in return for a slugger like Miguel Cabrera are not alone. Ned Colletti sounds alarmed, too.
"Any player that you would consider a middle-of-the-order bat, a run producer, as predicted, the cost of the prospects going back, at least in our minds, far exceeds the value of the player," the Dodgers general manager said Friday. "It's not one prospect, it's not two prospects, but in some cases it's three or four prospects. And our prospects are no longer prospects. They are big league players that continue to get asked about. ...
"We're still on a mission to try to find it and cure it," Colletti said of an upgrade. "If that fails, we'll try to improve the club, even if it means the 25th man or the last pitcher. Right now, trade-wise, its a lot of bait-and-switch. We thought we had a deal the other day, but they got cold feet at the end." ...
Colletti's idea of what constitutes improvement still concerns me. (And no, he didn't elaborate on what that trade would have been.) But you can't say (for once?) there aren't signs of an awareness of what he has.
* * *
A year ago, after J.D. Drew opted out of his Dodger contract, Colletti was left with outfield options consisting primarily of Marlon Anderson, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Jason Repko, Jayson Werth (injured throughout 2006) and James Loney. (Remember, until his June mashup with the right-field wall, Loney was a contender to play outfield.) Though a number of people would have been happy to choose from this group, none of them had played a full season as a starting major-league outfielder.
With that in mind, Colletti signed Juan Pierre. (The anniversary of that signing will be Tuesday.) Even then, it was doubtful that Pierre deserved a starting spot on the Dodgers. But Colletti valued his speed, experience, durability and ability to aggregate.
Flash forward to the present. Werth and Anderson are gone. Luis Gonzalez has come and gone. Loney is a first baseman for the rest of his life. The in-house outfield options are Ethier, Kemp, Pierre, Repko (in the Werth lost-year role), Delwyn Young and Andy LaRoche (in the Loney flights-of-position-switching-fancy role).
Ethier and Kemp are better than Pierre in no-contest fashion. Even factoring in Pierre's speed, Ethier boasts an EQA of .267, .019 higher than Pierre. The difference between Kemp and Pierre is too big to see without Cinemascope. Almost any other major-league outfielder, given Pierre's opportunities, would do more with them.
Right now, even without a new acquisition, it is a fair question to ask whether Pierre deserves to be the third outfielder in the starting lineup – particularly so if the Dodgers decide Kemp is their center fielder. You can't hide Young or LaRoche in center, but you could hide them in left if you had a mind to.
However, should the Dodgers sign a free-agent outfielder, it raises questions about Pierre's future in Los Angeles. In no way should one play Pierre in left field ahead of Ethier, let alone Kemp.
So if Colletti signs a free-agent outfielder, here are his options:
1) Trade Kemp for a big prize.
2) Trade Ethier for a smaller prize.
3) Trade Pierre for a booby prize.
4) Keep 'em all.
There's a belief out there that Pierre could never be benched or traded – a belief underscored by the Dodgers' refusal to not rest him once in the second half of 2007. But that was then. Colletti has bigger concerns than saving face on his mistaken Pierre signing – namely, saving his job. And for all of the talk of Colletti not wanting to give in on the Pierre signing for image reasons, why would he want to give up Ethier, whose acquisition is considered by many to be one of his highpoints?
Perhaps that leaves Kemp as the most likely trade option – but frankly, there aren't that many available trades outside of Miguel Cabrera or Johan Santana that Kemp could be included in – because he's too good to go for someone lesser.
We don't know what's going to happen, but I wouldn't rule anything out – not even the Dodgers showing up at Spring Training with Kemp, Ethier, Pierre and a free-agent outfielder, with Ethier (and to a lesser extent, Young and Repko) making bids to cut into Pierre's playing time.
In that case, Pierre will be the incumbent, just like Nomar Garciaparra will be the incumbent over Andy LaRoche at third base. And Pierre still might not be perceived as a problem offensively to Colletti, even if he so obviously is. At the same time, as shown by the disposals of players like Brett Tomko and Danys Baez, as evidenced by Pierre potentially being deposed from center field, even Colletti has his limits. Pierre isn't untouchable.
Nice Torre quote in the new Gurnick article cited above:
"Right now, we're looking to see what we can do offensively," he said. "And any time you can add quality pitching to your staff, you do it. I don't know if there are any gaping holes from what I've heard. I'm more familiar with the names of our guys, the Kemps and [Andy] LaRoches and Loneys."
(Please forgive the guy the use of the plural names.)
Okay, I will step away except to say that no one was more surprised than me how good a movie Back to Future was when I first saw it over 20 years ago at the AVCO in Westwood.
Music to my ears. I love the case you're making. Even if he doesn't exist.
Never!
I would think incumbency would mean at least ever-so-slightly less to a new manager than to an incumbent skipper.
Ned might not be able to move from "5-year-contract, starts 162 games in centerfield" to "5th outfielder on the bench" in one swift effort. It might take him 3 or 4 demotions to get there, but it's the destination that's important, not the journey.
The other 3 are going to be 4 to 6 years, $13-15M per.
On a two-year deal, I could live with it.
Man, Jason Repko's gotta be checking out housing listings in other cities right about now...
You think Trashcangate has been trouble...
Actually I have to agree. As much as I hated the trade at the time, the Lakers are much better off the way they are now than they would be if Shaq was still a Laker.
Yes even as they are the Lakers are still better off. Big game vs the Pistons tonight!
I just think there's mystery about the move still, and I'm not sure the analogy tracks.
But yes, every little chink in the armor probably helps.
Shaq won a championship a little over a year ago. Wouldnt the Lakers rather be in that camp, then the position they are in now? They are likely trading Kobe within the next year.
You're right, but we're not better off.
We managed to trade Shaq and get POUNDED by Grant's contract, and then Odom and Butler. Of course, then Butler was shipped for Kwame who might be the worst starting center in basketball.
NBA Gm's seem to not be able to work their own sport's salary cap. How do you trade a dominant (at the time) Shaq and not even get an all star back?
I'm not convinced. He's had numerous injury problems, conditioning problems, motivational problems, and a big mouth lately. I love Shaq like a brother, but to pay nearly 30 mil a year for an aging player...?
He's doing a fine job defensively - see Yao Mings shooting percentage from the other night - hence his starting role.
And yes, the Shaq trade was bad, mainly because I think Kupcheck panicked and took the first nominally decent trade he could get. The Butler trade was likely needed, the Lakers were overstocked at the 3, but Brown was a bad pick up. Though, I suspect most recognized that Shaq was about to fall off pretty quickly if he didn't change his approach.
To tie it into the Dodgers, it's bad player evaluation and dealing by the GM.
Jon, I think you mean not bench
Duncan had a bad game. It happens. I'm in no way attributing it to Kwame Brown.
The bottom line is that Kwame makes about 4 times what he should make. Do you realize if Mitch didn't pick up his option we would have had 9 million dollars to spend on a GOOD player?
That's the entire problem with the NBA. You make one dumb signing, and it completely hinders the ability to get more help...which is why we're having this kobe problem in the first place.
1. Wilt traded from San Francisco Warriors to Sixers, Sixers win title, Warrrior do win a title (10 years later) but mostly are not a challenger for the next 40 years.
2. Wilt traded from Sixers to Lakers, Lakers go to 4 finals in 5 years winning their first title in Los Angeles, in Wilt's last year with the Lakers, Sixers set all time wores regular season record.
3. Kareem traded from Bucks to Lakers, Lakers, though it takes a while do ultimately win 5 titles with a lot of help, Bucks have not made the Finals since the trade.
4. Shaq signed FA contract, Magic still has not recoverd, Lakers won 3 titles in a row.
5. Shaq dealt from Lakers to Heat, Heat win title, Lakers end up in lottery and two first round exits.
The requirements regarding salary matches in trades have made them even more difficult to get value since the team dealing the franchise player usually has to get back a lot guys to get close to the salary figure.
If the Celtics win a title with KG, will whatever Minnesota got for him be considered equal value?
That would be amazing. The fact that Colletti said they thought they had a deal and then went on to mention how he didn't want to give up 3 or 4 players leads me to believe the deal wasn't the catastrophic Kershaw, Laroche, Kemp, Loney type deal.
But we'll never really know.
That is a concept that is really hard for NBA GMs to consider which is why you see these apparent one-sided deals get made.
The requirements regarding salary matches in trades have made them even more difficult to get value since the team dealing the franchise player usually has to get back a lot guys to get close to the salary figure.
exactly. Since you can't get full value, you just get ALL expiring contracts so that you may be giving up a year, but you come back with a ton of cap room.
That was the problem with the Shaq trade. If they couldn't get a bonafide all star, they should have dealt him for the scrap pile of expiring contracts so that we could build around Kobe. Instead, they made an extremely poor move that has ruined the cap until this day...
I've played with one guy who made it to AA and had double vision. He lead my Culver City team to several championships before moving back home. He played HS football with Roger Craig of 49r fame. He was incredible, easily the best hitter in the league and he didn't get past AA.
I played two games with this guy
http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hernaje02.shtml
He was only a pitcher and in two games he probably hit 6 home runs and had the best arm I ever played catch with.
Some of you probably fancy yourself good ballplayers. The difference between being a good HS player and a major league players is night and day, even one with a poor arm. To say you wouldn't put Juan Pierre in LF on a softball team is about the most ignorant statement I've ever read here.
the scary part with that was, they didnt make that move on Loney's big play, they made it on Garciaparra's poor play...
Loney played like he always had been, and i think if Nomar had played well they would have kept putting loney in th OF regardless of the terrible 3B play.
I don't think any GM has managed to master the system yet.
The Lakers have the additional problem of having a GM who might be in over his head.
I only approve if it means the end of Pierre in L.A.....other than that, I would rather the Giants take him...
he is no more of a presence that bynum right now..
and we would be much better off with caron butler right now...
ugh. and kobe didnt run shaq out...shaq said him or me and they said ok him.
One might phrase this differently as, "A fanatic is one who starts Juan Pierre in left field."
18
and they support players around shaq/wade was way better than what was around shaq/kobe. thats where the championship came in.
and the lakers are in the same boat.
recent championships i mean.
UCLA will get to face Brady Leaf, who plays like his big brother did in the NFL.
There was no danger of us turning a double-play in that millenium, so we thought he could help us most right there.
We were pretty much right.
I'd take Pierre over anyone we had in the outfield, including good ol' Ralph the satcom guy, who had an absolute cannon in right field.
Personally, the first tip off would have been the fact that she played shortstop but always in that first at-bat, the outfield would creep in and bang a homer, bang another homer.
I think Jon mixed-up Kemp crashing into the wall on opening day and Loney doing the same thing in June.
Yep, I have to work. On what is traditionally the busiest day of the year in public libraries, the Saturday after Thanksgiving. Libraries fill up with college students from all over the country back home to visit the folks and then coming in expecting to find all their academic databases available at the public library or wondering why their Cornell ID card doesn't grant them privileges.
http://tinyurl.com/yvxyj
http://beatblogging.typepad.com/
Trust me, it's busy. I'd use a metaphor that my father liked it, but like most of my dad's metaphors it involves a Rule 1 violation.
Offer Andruw one year at $20 million. He'll probably bounce back and return an OPS-plus of 110-125. That's in line with what he usually does. You're buying 25-35 more home runs than you got from your CF last year. You're buying a CF whose throwing arm is far more of a deterrent than your CF last year. You're getting a 30-year-old whose overall defense led all CFs in 2007, according to the Fielding Bible. Dodgers pitchers would be very, very happy. And you don't have to give up a draft pick to get him.
Even if Andruw is no better than he was last year, he'd sill be considerably better than what the Dodgers got out of the position last year. And i has a big year and Boras wants a billion for him, you can let him go and get two draft picks for him.
Why would Andruw say yes to a one-year deal? The market for CFs probably won't be as crowded next year. So if he has his typical season, his leverage should be very strong. He'd also get to stay in the NL, and Dodger Stadium certainly is a fair ballpark for a power hitter.
Wonder if Furcal and he are buds, and if Furcal is selling the Dodgers/Andruw on a move West.
Plan B in CF would be a one-year offer to Cameron for $11 million. Pierre could hold the job until Cameron's suspension ends. If Pierre miraculously shows he can get on base at a .370 clip, then he slides to LF.
In case you were scoring at home.
are you serious? Those Laker teams were built REALLY well...I think you're forgetting about guys like Fisher, Ron Harper, Horry, etc.
yes when they won the championships.
i am talking about what they would have had if shaq stayed.
keep up
To say you wouldn't put Juan Pierre in LF on a softball team is about the most ignorant statement I've ever read here.
I'll take it as a sign that we've been around the block too many times on the Pierre issue that anyone could think that I actually meant that. Tongue was in cheek.
But you somehow managed to mention Cal's 2004 season without setting off the Eric Enders alarm.
I just re-read what you wrote in 48, and it still makes no sense.
It's really not a bad idea of Jones would go for it. If he stinks up the joint, you're off the hook. If he's great, we get two picks for him and we aren't giving picks up to get him.
The offense would really really offset Slappy.
jeter lives in a state with no taxes, no wonder he didnt pay them....
Didn't you hear? We're in denial about that.
I don't think my love could survive it.
I'm okay with it if they feel like giving up Lincecum and Cain.
I'm sure neither Lincecum nor Cain is going anywhere except for Santana, Cabrera etc. Pity. Really the Giants are going to stink either way, so it's nothing to get riled about.
would you object to signing Rowand if the odd man out is Pierre?
Ethier-Rowand-Kemp?
In my mind it's A.Jones or bust. Anything else is just bad IMO.
82 - Regardless of whether it's true in the case of Kemp, make no mistake - these rumors can be completely invented. Really important that this is understood.
which is why Ned is also shopping for a top tier starting pitcher, and also why i dont think he will trade Billz
there are others, Bedard has been mentioned.
but i also said i dont think he will trade billz, which obviously means both would be in the rotation. :)
That's was one of my dad's "go to" phrases.
then we could sign Jones or another CF, and make Kim Ng our GM
Then never fly to Honolulu and have to change planes and go to a different terminal.
And this is a blog on which D4P and Andrew Shimmin post regularly.
harsh
If NedCo screws things up just enough, we may well be the first franchise to have a chick running the show.
Most progressive post ever.
I guess the word "wiki" brings out suppressed emotions.
he did alright as an agent...he showed us the money anyways
he did alright as an agent...he showed us the money anyways
im getting on/starting the Repko at CF bandwagon right now....i mentioned some yesterday but im making it official now.
However, my question, which I posted yesterday, is what realistically could we get for JP. I believe Andru Jones would be great for the Dodgers and with Kemp and Either flanking him and DY being the 4th outfielder-that to me would be the best situation.
Just don't know what we could get for JP-I obviously would advocate making the trade more attractive and eating some of his salary, and finding some young 2b prospect.
your mistake is in trying to get value for pierre.
we have a young 2B prospect in Abreu.
trading Pierre is probably a cut-your-losses kind of thing.
but i do believe at a much lower salary, he is a better lead-off, outfielder than some teams have.
you never know if we eat some of his salary we might could get decent low/mid-level prospect.
Oh, and what's the latest on our young hero in Tuscon?
ah well. hot stove season, gotta love it.
I don't really.
Yeah, & then you watch him play everyday & EVERYTHING CHANGES. Poor Ned I can only imagine what was going thru his mind all year long watching him play.
Juan Pierre will not make the Hall of Fame and I would be shocked if got more than one token vote.
the only reason i advocate getting rid of him is because i think Ethier, Kemp, LaRoche, are more valuable, and i think an we can upgrade better in CF.
my argument is that money shouldn't matter for dodger fans....we have the highest attendance every year and i would assume, one of the highest revenues, although i haven't looked into it....
http://tinyurl.com/27c6vv
they are not immortal, just very hard to beat...
i dont think any could survive being hit by the trainwreck that is ned colletti.
Theres another Izturis in the realm.
His wife blogs too. And they have small children.
thats creepy
Nerve-wracking months to be a fan!
And they have small children.
just creepy...
not to mention all the behind the scenes staff that he boots each year.
And so forth. This really doesn't mitigate Colletti's dreadful signing, but would only emphasize it.
if our outfield of Pierre, Ethier, Kemp stays intact, the move to Left Field for Pierre makes a ton of sense....you would have the same offensive production from the same 3 players...why does it matter what position they are in?....
the move to left if we add a CF is dumb unless we lost kemp or ethier in a trade of some sort.
so if we lost kemp/ethier in a trade for cabrera or a pitcher, and added say Andruw Jones, and bumped pierre to left field...
that makes a ton of sense...you are getting your power from center and 3rd, and hiding your weak armed outfielder in left as you said.
What's up with Turiaf? He's in street clothes tonight.
The Tigers have made two one-year contract offers to Rogers through Boras, both of which were declined. Meanwhile, the Rangers have confirmed their interest in Rogers, and the Mariners have been among other clubs reportedly interested in the 43-year-old southpaw as well.
Is it normal protocol for an agent to do stuff like that? I sincerely don't know & wanna get an idea if Boros is in the wrong or if he's just fallowing protocol. It kind of seems wrong specially if Rogers told Boros he WANTED TO PITCH FOR DETRIOT.
"In an unexpected twist to the offseason saga surrounding both free-agent pitcher Kenny Rogers and agent Scott Boras, Rogers has dismissed Boras and now is representing himself in contract negotiations, multiple baseball sources confirmed Friday afternoon."
Well, Lakers game is over, and now I can watch the rest of Boogie Nights, after a swell dinner out. A good evening all around. Night!
Sam if you're still awake, don't fear the Celtics. First of all they played most of their games at home. Secondly they're playing some weak teams. The Nets? The Wizards? The Knicks? The Raptors?
Meanwhile the Lakers played a series of opponents with a combined record of 41-18 or something like that. To me, I'm more impressed with the Lakers at the moment. They are lookin' sharp!
Key differences exist, yes. Anyway, that concludes this edition of Laker Points on Dodger Thoughts&trade
one of my favorite movies, thanks for the heads up Underdog!!
LaRoche, Furcal, Kent and Loney is a decent enough infield. Martin is a really good catcher. I don't see why Young could not be brought back to the infield so he could be be used say the way the Angels use Figgins as injury insurance in the infield and outfield.
Penny. Lowe and Billingsley are a solid starting point for a rotation. I'd like to see a 4th starter brought in and have the 5th spot be a competion between Loiza and Schmidt. Broxton, Beimel, Proctor and Saito are capable relief pitchers.
I would not trade for Cabrera or Santana, nor spend money for Rowland, Hunter or Jones. I would try to get a backup outfielder and a catcher who can spell Martin.
Stan from Tacoma
vr, Xei
http://weblogs.variety.com/wga_strike_blog/
When we document that his production is near the bottom for major league outfielders, even with his speed factored in, what are you not understanding?
--
Man, I'd forgotten how depressing the last third of Boogie Nights is. Still a blast, though.
Mixed metaphor alert in the post below the linked one:
"We're on the ten yard line, folks. Let's drive it home."
And the dulcet tones of Liev Schreiber never get old.
I have it ready to tape at 1:05 am.
I can watch it tomorrow when the actual Michigan-Ohio State game gets boring.
Thank The Dude I'm finally employed again.
Yes, Andre Ethier to center. That's what I been on about.
Maybe he's too slow but how would we know? Stick him in there and find out. By some metrics he ranked among the league's best right fielders. Give him the chance to play himself out of center, if he can. I don't think he would. He can't be any slower than Nick Swisher.
Then, if you start thinking of Ethier as a center fielder, suddenly his numbers look really good. He becomes an untouchable like Kemp and Loney. And maybe the trade speculation dries up and blows away.
But no, I got no suggestion how to deal with little Juan.
My question, would Colletti even want to ask? I mean, we only heard he wants to get the arm out of center. For all we know, Ned may be struggling desperately with the intellectual problem of minimizing the defensive liability without losing the bat he so values at the top of the order.
Buster Olney ain't gonna tell us. No way to know without a phone tap. Or maybe a lip reader in center with a pair of binoculars.
you are using "moneyball" type stats to evaluate a player with a different style of skill sets....
the only true knock on Pierre offensively is his lack of walks.
he has a good batting average and excellent speed.
is a walk by a slow player on a powerless team better than less walks by a player who can fly around the bases?
he doesnt have an average .ops no, but he has slightly above average BA and SB and scored nearly 100 runs on a team that struggled in doing so.
my point is everyone is quick to point to his weaknesses and overlook his skills.
we could do much worse with a number 2 hitter/outfielder.
there are only 13 CF in the MLB with a higher OBP.
there were 12 LF in the MLB with higher OBP than Ethier
7 RF with a better OBP than kemp and he was tied with JD Drew.
not a bad idea. What about giving the 3B job to LaRoche and making Nomar prove he isn't done in LF?
For the last time, I am factoring in Pierre's speed.
For the last time, his runs scored total is directly related to how many opportunities he gets to play.
Just because Pierre is never going to have a high slugging percentage doesn't mean slugging percentage is irrelevant.
It doesn't matter how much worse we could do than Pierre when, right this second, we could do better.
i think we should trade for cabrera solely on the hope that he might swallow ned
or maybe bartolo colon....
crap maybe we can convince broxton to do it
vr, Xei
Stan from Tacoma
The hard part I think is that Ned will want something back. Maybe just a middle reliever, but maybe something beyond a token.
repko vs. pierre
speedy? check.
low OBP? check, though repko walks much more, so if his BA comes up, he can improve.
no power? oh wait, repko has some pop.
bad routes to the ball? check.
no arm? oh wait, repko has a great arm.
durability? this is the only category where pierre wins. but pierre's so bad, who cares that he's durable?
and if you can put kemp in CF as a backup plan if repko gets injured again, then you're golden. with delwyn young as a 4th outfielder, we don't need to get a free agent, unless it's a ricky ledee, brady clark 5th OF-type.
i'm worried about 3rd base, but if a-rod's now off the table, there aren't many other appealing options.
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2007/11/lowell_mulls_op.html
Go Hokies, beat U
the drunken high dialog is what always blows my mind, it's so well written you can't help & think the writer lived thrue an episode like that in his life, just a really good movie in my opinion.
Nomar in left is only because he has a guarenteed contract, and gives the start at third to LaRoache. I have no illusions of greatness from Nomar in Left.
I prefer Ehtier in CF over Kemp because I think he has better instincts for Outfield defense then Kemp Right Now...My understanding is that Kemp has only been playing baseball for a short time relative to other players. That is the only reason Kemp does not look as polished as the better defensive outfielders in the league. He is such an awesome athelete that with time, and experience he will be just as good if not better than most.
I think you have something there. Cards may need a CF after this year with Edmunds being in the last year of his contract. LaRussa seems to like speedy scrappy guys so a Rolen, Edmunds for Nomar, Pierre for an opening trade discussion coud be a possibility
Isn't Rasmus projected to be centerfielder?
be a centerfielder
Does your metric have a nice acronym?
wouldn't it be nice if JP was less durable?
and before Repko hurt his ankle he was raking to the tune of .330-.340
would it be too far a stretch to hope for Lowell at 3B with an outfield of LaRoche-Either-Kemp?
it isnt a big deal but going by what has been said here Ethier is a better defender and its clear Ethier has a big time arm.
Ok, I made that last part up.
I don't know about Lowell, MAYBE a one year deal? but he's seeking 3 or 4 yers so I'm sure he won't me signed by us (I'm hoping)
You can wait for Tom Hammond to canonize Jimmy Clausen for completing one long pass.
But what's up with his hat?
From the game, "If you have 3rd and 7 and run a 6 yard route, if my math is correct, you can't get a first down."
Yes, because in American football, there is a new rule that you have to stop running the second you catch the ball.
USC beats Arizona State
UCLA beats Oregon
Oregon beats Oregon State
Arizona beats Arizona State
UCLA beats USC
UCLA goes to the Rose Bowl.
Karl Dorrell is crowned King of Westwood!
i blame the worst announcer ever John Madden....i wish they would fire him and hire frank calliendo as his replacement and not tell anyone....we would just think madden got a little funnier.
Just think how bad Greg would feel if Dorrell's Bruins won the next, say, 5 national championships or so. Man: he'd be in the dumps.
And they aren't nearly as humorous as people would think.
*Recognizing that there is really no such thing as a National Champion in Division 1 football.
And I didn't mean, that it's a recent phenomenon, but that it's to be taken as a given.
Bear Bryant had six national championships depending upon whom you wish to believe.
227/231 - I thought I hit the stop button fast enough.
And now, I'm off to breakfast.
Chick: Dribble drive by Magic, fakes left, no look to Worthy, slammmm dunk!
Keith Erickson: Unbelivable pass by Magic.
Chick: Inbounds to Dennis Johnson, over Bird, into McHale, 6 footer, in and out heartbreak, rebound to Green, over to Scott, back to Magic, yo-yoing up and down, down to Kareem, 8 foot sky hook over Parish, 2 points.
Keith Erickson, Kareem got good position on that one.
the only true knock on Pierre offensively is his lack of walks. he has a good batting average and excellent speed.
His lack of walks is not his only true "knock" offensively. Let's start with your first contention "he has a good batting average."
I'll say two things to that. First, the same thing everyone else is saying - BA is not what is relevant, OBP is what matters, and his OBP is merely average (to slightly below average).
Here is the thing about his so called "good" batting average, though. It is not truely good, it is merely average then made to look good because of his speed. Let me elaborate. His LD% is around 20%. That is perfectly acceptable. His GB% is around 55%, which for Pierre is a good thing. The problem is what that means. Look at his BA with runners on the bases - it drops from around .300 to around .250. That makes perfect sense from his components. The guy rarely walks or Ks, so most balls are put in play. About half of the time, he puts the ball on the ground. That is fine for him (right now) because of his speed. But with slower people on the base path (and going to bases that are much closer to the ball), he ends up with a lot of "FC".
The reality is, Pierre is not a "good hitter with speed." Pierre is simply an average to below average hitter that happens to be really fast. Speed is not something that people are missing when talking about him. Speed, instead, is 100% of Pierre's value.
That, btw, is also true of his defense. As a CF he is actually still a slightly above average fielder. This in spite of very serious problems with his arm strength.
There are, in turn, two huge problems with a player whose skill set is based entirely on speed. The first is that this is a team game, not an individual sprint competition. Team games in general, and I think Baseball in particular, mean that an athlete's individual skills are less important than how those skills can be integrated with the rest of the team. For Pierre, his batting skills mean that he is really only average as a hitter when none of his teammates are on base.
Secondly, with speed in particular, Pierre was at his peak before he made it to a major league team. Speed is the one skill that is in decline every year a player is in the majors. At some point in his career - and almost certainly before the 5 years on his contract end - his speed will decline to the point where all those grounders he hits will become outs at a much higher rate than they do today.
Pierre is the type of player that good GMs use to take advantage of the majority of GMs. Sadly, the Dodgers are near the bottom in that category.
Excellent analysis and very logically laid out and without resorting to emotion.
Baseball has been full of players like Juan Pierre and history has shown they don't last very long or are particularly valuable.
Unless you want a lineup full of guys like Debs Garms and Brian Hunter and Gary Pettis and Carson Bigbee.
This site
http://tinyurl.com/dlgw
gives Alabama credit for 11 national championships overall.
Notre Dame has 12. Yale has 19 and Princeton has 24.
The latter two aren't going to win any more of them.
i agree with 239
seems to be the first anti-Pierre argument where more was said than, His OBP is Low so he sucks.
i still maintain that OBP is slightly less important for a non-slugging top-of-the-lineup speed player.
but your analysis is right on, and i gather from it that he is an average/ slightly above average player?
Except even more frustrating.
How's his arm in centerfield?
You mean UCLA will hire Juan Pierre to coach the football team?
BA OBP SLG%
JP .293 .331 .353
RF .270 .333 .355
yeah, i meant .OPS
Unbelievable.
Firstly, what is your reasoning that OBP is less important for a "top-of-the-lineup speed player"? I am confused.
1. For a player with no power, and particularly for a player with speed, the only thing that can possibly matter is not making an out. That way, once on first base they can use that speed to generate more offense than their OPS implies because OPS does not take into account stolen bases nor taking extra bases on a hit (EqA, however, does). Why do you think it is more important how Pierre gets to 1B (high BA) than merely the fact that he gets there (high OBP).
2. Since you point out "top of the order" as part of his descriptor, I assume you are talking about his "lead-offness" and thus his batting without runners on base more often than most other players (this is true of lead-off hitters, btw, but not nearly to the degree most people think it is). This is particularly confusing. I can understand (even though it is wrong) people thinking that "putting the ball in play" is often more important than just getting on base safely, but when you are emphasizing that the player needs to do this because he is a lead-off hitter, your argument makes no sense to me. Please explain your reasoning.
Secondly, I am curious what reasoning you are using that allows you to both call my analysis "right on" and come to the conclusion that the player I analyzed was average to slightly above average, overall.
but alas, i understand there arent better SS solutions out there, but i still fear signing a CF will result in losing kemp/ethier
You can't say you weren't warned.
My concern is that Colletti is trying to trade him and that he's being pushed to do so by Jeff Kent. I think that Kent may have suggested to Colletti that he won't return to the Dodgers next summer if some of the younger players, such as Kemp, are still on the team. If the Dodgers acquire a free-agent centerfielder, such as Rowand, they may feel justified in trading Kemp.
I hope that Colletti will realize the extraordinarily valuable player that Kemp is and not trade him.
.
Furcal is one of the best SS in baseball, both offensively and defensively. He just had a bad year.
Pierre had a perfectly normal year this year. In fact, in some respects it was above average for him (career best SB% and total SBs). In spite of this, Pierre is still, one of the worst at his position.
To be clear, there are no children in the house so I could them as an excuse for watching Patrick and Spongebob.
But we are both rational human beings who agreed to drop the subject and now I only kid about it and recognize the esteemed Mr. Brock's opinion.
This is a complete degradation of discourse here.
i meant .ops, where as...a player with pop has an inflated slug%, and will be intentionally walked a little more than someone who is a threat on the bases, resulting in a lower .OPS.
i agreed with your analysis, and was asking where you think he stands among other players.
His OB% is 14th in the lg among CF.
and im not necessarily saying that putting the ball in play is more important, what i am saying is he may get on base less, but he does more when he is there.
Pierre is the target because of frustration. Most of the people around here (myself included) probably let out an audible gasp when they saw we signed Pierre. We all knew what we were getting, and what we were getting wasn't good.
I think, more than anything, people have accepted the fact that Pierre is here but are trying to figure out the logic of signing him in the first place. You seem to be a fan of his, and that's fine, but he really is simply a bad player.
Also, you mention Furcal....the guy was hurt the ENTIRE year. You have to expect that a guy is going to have a downturn when he's playing on a bum ankle every day. While Furcal and Pierre's numbers are very similar, Pierre also had in the neighborhood of 85 more AB's than Furcal. Have to take that into consideration when comparing the two to see how unproductive Pierre really is.
Which is precisely the objective, and why the warning was issued.
258
I called it (offsite) immediately after it showed up. It's pretty easy to recognize.
and i already the counter argument for furcal's off year, and pierre's typical year.
The impact of intentional walks on OPS is so minimal that it's not even worth mentioning.
and im not necessarily saying that putting the ball in play is more important, what i am saying is he may get on base less, but he does more when he is there.
How? That's the whole point of this. If you don't get on base, then you've failed. Would you rather have a guy with an OBP of .430 who steals NO bases or Pierre at .330 who'll steal around 60 and get caught around 15-20? I'll absolutely take the former.
Does it pop up as an appointment on MS Outlook or iCal?
dont you need to factor in the weak bats behind pierre? that makes pierres speed more important
and an OBP of .430 is around league leading...
where as i pointed out, pierre's is smack in the middle for CF.
i'm just saying that many people are over reacting on how bad he really is.
yeah, i really want Pierre out as much as anyone but i just like to play devil's advocate and hurt Jon's head.
Comment 269:
i'm not arguing for JP being a good or really good player...
Prove it.
*and an OBP of .430 is around league leading...
where as i pointed out, pierre's is smack in the middle for CF.*
You're right, and as a matter of fact, Pierre ranked 11th amongst MLB CF's last year in OBP. But, he ranked LAST in slugging, LAST in OPS, I believe 25th in RBI, yet SECOND in AB's.
Doesn't that tell you something? You're saying that Pierre is in the middle when it comes to OBP which is true, but he's last or almost last in ALL of the major hitting categories AND he has the second most AB's.
How can you possibly defend the guy?
What color is the sky?
"You're right, Chick, and here's the first half stats."
239 Brett Butler had a similar skill set to Pierre, but was mostly beloved (except by Mike Busch),applauded as a "gamer", and played well past his shelf life. Vince Coleman,Otis Nixon,Omar Moreno, and Lofton all had similar skills, and long careers
These teams are terrible.
On the other hand, Missouri seems to be a pretty good team. Which sounds odd.
And Buster Olney could be celebrating a Vandy win over Tennessee.
Brett Butler drew lots of walks. Kenny Lofton walks a fair bit too and he has occasional power.
Otis Nixon and Omar Moreno and Vince Coleman were vastly overrated. And if I had to build a baseball team with an outfield of those three guys, I would be terrified.
Butler: .080
Lofton: .073
Nixon: .073
Coleman: .060
Moreno: .054
Pierre: .026
Lofton also had some power. Not a lot, but some.
he is trade-able despite what some people say.
and we could keep LaRoche and his developing power. i think thats our best option.
http://tinyurl.com/3ywbkm
1. Coleman was a lot faster, had a lot of Ks and BBs and his career as a starter was effectively over at age 28. He stuck around for an other 7 years, but was never any good after he left the Cardnials. Later in his career, he had one more season starting for KC, but mostly because they were terrible.
2. Otis Nixon walked. He had a lifetime IsoD of .073 (above average for his era). He was also an outstanding defensive CF for most of his career, without Pierre's arm troubles.
3. Omar Moreno. I wish he was a good comparable to Pierre, because it would make my point well - he was simply terrible. Worse than Pierre. He is a good comparable to Coleman, just not as good overall. Alas, like Coleman, his career was effectively over once he left Pittsburgh at age 29. He and Coleman do help illustrate one thing though - guys with nothing to offer but speed don't last long and fall off the cliff very hard and very fast.
4. Kenny Lofton. Again, like Nixon, lifetime IsoD of .073. The guy can walk. During his career, he broke .400 OBP four times and came close a couple more. He also had some power. Lifetime SLG of .423. Kenny had a lot more to offer than just being fast.
Pierre, in 8 years of MLB play, has an IsoD of .047 and a SLG of .374. He is 30 next year. We'll see how hard and how fast he falls off the cliff once his speed hits the critical threshold someone of his age must be reaching.
282 It's a 70's thing, along with gold uniforms, big baseball caps, bad disco songs, and Howard Cosell doing the World Series Broadcasts in a shocking yellow ABC blazer.
278 279 Never said that Pierre was any better than those players, just that for some reason talent evaluators created a niche for outfielders who are fast, can make contact, but lack most other identifiable baseball skills (power,defense etc),and like most things in baseball, old beliefs (myths) linger seemingly forever.
His DT card shows a career BA of .301 and career OBP of .348
Which is still terrible but not as horrific as .026
Nice to see Cal coming back - they have to win this one. I also didn't realize, or had forgotten, that Cal's all-Pac10 center Alex Mack was from my hometown (Sta Barbara). Their line is really good, as Dan Fouts has mentioned about 12 times.
Cal is already bowl eligible, so they are likely heading to Las Vegas or San Francisco.
I have created a new nickname for Vandy.
Er, Longshore's gonna have to not throw interceptions, for one thing.
Not that a Notre Dame-Duke game doesn't excite the heck out of me.
Because it doesn't.
The only bowl worse than the Emerald Bowl would be the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth I think.
And that bowl is reserved for a mediocre Pac-10 team that can scrape together six wins, like UCLA or Wazzu or the unnamed school.
Paella takes a very long time to make, so if you intend to eat before midnight, I suggest you get started.
7:14 to go.
Vandy hasn't beaten Tennessee in Knoxville since
two years ago.
Man, Cal's going to be in trouble anyway, if DeSean Jackson's injury is serious.
Were you thinking Kemp has a better arm than Ethier based on observation, or some other reason? It was said so matter of factly, I assume there is a reasoning behind it that I haven't heard before. I don't think it is that important, execpt in determining who plays what position.
Can't be serious.
Abreu and Pierre for Crede would be perfectly fine with me. Then we could dump Crede and give the starting 3B job to LaRoche.
But that's just crazy talk.
Id rather trae Pierre + whoever for Garland or Pierre straight up for Contreras.
At least with Contreras, he might be decent in the pen.
I am not too proud to pander to everyone's (well except for one person) dislike of Danny Ainge.
Yeah. I guess I'm just hoping that the Crede trade includes Pierre instead of someone we actually care about.
I wish I could draw a paycheck while babbling into a keyboard.
Wow, I've never seen that before. Did he at least get a warning?
He had in his previous lives. He's been reincarnated more often than Shirley MacLaine.
This is Cabrera...costing less than Crede. That is silly. This is Cabrera, whom reports out of Florida are valuing at something like four good young players, not one. I would guess that if Cabrera could be had for one good young player that it would be a done deal and he'd be a Dodger even if that player were Kershaw/Kemp/Pick Your Favorite. Without any silly Joe Crede business on the side.
Some Hot Stove reports worry me - because I don't have a lot of faith in Coletti not making a net negative move. I guess I don't really trust him to stand pat when standing pat is the right move. But this report? Not so much.
Supposedly has something to do with Torreabla talks breaking down.
Torrealba should be grateful that any team is willing to overpay him for last season.
I realize ANY coach should do this, but fact is we just got a new exspensive coach!
So this should be interesting. Most here feel as of before last season we had 3-4 better Ofer to those who wound up playing.
If so, please call Jeff Tedford. He'll fix you right up.
Also, USU snapped a 16-game losing streak.
I wanna like Flanders but if Pierre was signed because
a/ no depth in organization at CF
b/ No one available with Matthews gone
Why not sign Lofton to a 1 year deal November 2006? Same guy, albeit with better Slug and OBP for less money and commitment, knowing at least Hunter and A.Jones would be FA's after '07 season? Couldn't wait a year? Money burning a hole in your pocket? Lofton even helped you get to the playoffs...
Will he trade Pierre, eat $16-20 Mil of the remaining $36mil and then add Jones,Rowand,Hunter? This is General Managing? I KNOW Depo and Evans thought in terms of year two, year three, but this guy...
"If the Sox do land Cabrera to play left and a new starting center fielder in free agency, like Torii Hunter or Aaron Rowand, their lineup starts to look rather imposing"
Basically, the rather tight White Sox, if they add the most coveted trade available player and pay him $10mil a year to start, plus add a $15mil a year guy...wouldn't ANY team start to look imposing with those two and $25-$35mil a year in 2-5 years of commitment?
Hope that guy is a volunteer reporter...
http://www.byucougars.com/Filing.jsp?ID=9614
your triglycerides are gonna be off the charts today BHSportsguy.
so theres a picture of Andy Laroche next to a Keith Law article, basically insinuating the Dodgers think Laroche is "trash".
of course, its behind the pay wall.
Andy LaRoche, third base, Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have apparently decided that 93 at-bats constitute enough of an audition, because they're looking at other third-base options rather than giving LaRoche (who hit .309/.399/.589 in Las Vegas this year) a full-time shot at the job in 2008. LaRoche is a passable defender at third -- he'll never be plus but won't have to move off the position -- and his bat is well above-average for the hot corner. His power has improved over the past year, and his plate discipline is outstanding. He's the type of player the Giants tended to undervalue while Ned Colletti was there, and we're seeing some evidence that Colletti has brought that philosophy to L.A.
--
In the newest Onion, on their Sports page, under "Also In This Issue": "Scott Boras Laughing Maniacally At Old Episode of Arli$$."
Also: "Yankess Liken A-Rod's Growing Greed to Kino from Steinbeck's 'The Pearl'"
The best part, however, was that it featured perhaps the worst goatee in human history, sported by Aaron Marshall of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. I have no words to describe it.
David DeJesus
Adam Lind
Jonny Gomes
Cliff Lee
Ben Broussard
Luke Scott
Matt Murton
Coco Crisp
Gerald Laird
Here are LaRoche's rankings within the Dodger organization per Baseball America:
2004 - 8th
2005 - 5th
2006 - 2nd
2007 - 1st
The Dodger team rankings were 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, & 6th in all of baseball during those years.
2007: 1
2006: 2 (Behind Bills, ahead of Martin, Broxton and Kemp)
2005: 5
It must be said:
LaRoche is underrated
Kemp is overrated
That's not to say Kemp sucks or anything. He's probably my favorite player on the squad. But there seems to be a disconnect out there between how the two players are viewed. LaRoche has better power and discipline than Kemp, and he plays a (slightly) tougher defensive position.
"The Dodgers also confirmed reports that general manager Ned Colletti hired another link to his days as a Giants official, hiring San Francisco international scouting director Rick Ragazzo as a special assistant."
Special Assistant, the Dodger front office is getting comical.
When LaRoche stinks, well, he doesn't have looks to fall back on. He's not all that impressive physically, and isn't a huge tools guy. He just has amazing discipline and the ability to hit line drives all over the field. Plate discipline gets no one excited just by looking at it, so if his swing gets untracked, he does look pretty bad.
Special Assistant to the General Manager!
8 seconds. It's not just for rodeo anymore.
I would say both are underrated by the Dodgers by all the rumors we hear of how the Dodgers are including them in all these packages.
and...the trash can.
Kemp moves trash cans at a much more accelerated level than LaRoche. :)
1) the Dodgers valued him too highly
2) other teams don't like him and he's like the lowest caste of Indian society
3) he looks like Robert Stack
The Mariners should sell high on JJ Putz. The guy is 30. He is under contract for two more years. He has put up two incredible seasons. But that follows a few merely good seasons.
How likely is he to maintain after breaking out at age 29?
How much would the Ed Wades of the world overpay for the best closer in the AL?
If the Yankees want to pay Mariano Rivera $15 million per year, what should Putz fetch on the open market?
Plus another Italian in the mix. If Andy was only Italian instead of Mexican he'd be a shoe-in for 3rd base.
The Stoops family must pay for its sins.
I realize they were nominally in it for a good chunk of the season, but they just don't seem that close to me. I suppose in a four-team division, you're always somewhat close.
Still, with some adjustments the lineup can become much more effective. Getting Adam Jones and Wladmir Balentin some at bats makes the offense much more potent. Still doesn't solve giant holes like Jose Lopez, Vidro, and Richie Sexson, but it's a start.
Tommy: "Where have you been all my life! Get out there and show us what ya got, m'boy!"
That honor belongs to our very own Marquis Grissom in 2001 with an OPS+ of 71 with 21 homers.
Grissom drew 16 walks that season.
And struck out 107 times.
His OBP in 2001 was a remarkable .250
But he was no Tom Goodwin or McKay Christensen.
Put another way, was McKay Christensen a Tom Goodwin?
I also remember thinking Slava Medvedenko could develop into a solid power forward.
I'm better now.
I remember during the spring there was a three-way competition among Roberts, Christensen, and one other player for the center field job.
Christensen was the presumptive favorite, but he apparently ticked off a lot of the coaches and was sent packing. He wasn't particularly a bad guy, but he didn't take to coaching well.
Christensen was regarded as being too nice. His career was interrupted by a Mormon mission.
"Keith, I saw a trade proposal on another website and wanted to know your thoughts. Chein Ming-Wang to the Dodgers - Loney/Broxton to the Yanks. Is this in any way sensible? The only way I could see this working is if the Yankees then went full bore and pried Santana away from the Twins. I don't know however if the Dodgers would be willing to give up Loney and Broxton for Wang. Thanks. "
wonder if the website he saw it on was wishfulthinking.com??
LAT, if you wouldn't mind hitting Juniors for some chix noodle soup, I'll be up a while yet.
Thx.
Hey, wait your turn. He still hasn't delivered the books he was supposed to get from my ex.
http://dodgerwatchdog.blogspot.com
I'm not overly impressed by his work so far (needs some help on that correlation versus causation thing, also has way to much of a young player fetish, i.e. calling Jeff Kent not an asset to any team) but it shows some nice effort.
Sounds like Brock to me :)
Percipient?
That's all till tomorrow
XOXO
Brock wrote about our DT gathering & did an absolute awesome job, I was like wow dude, you can write some good stuff!
387 - I'm forgiving the typo, because no one here questioned what the heck the headline of this post meant.
New post up top.
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