If it's cool with everyone else, I'm going to wait on the gloom/doom or joy decision until we see what happens our fourth outfielder situation.
If Pierre is playing somewhere else next year, than this is a great move. If Pierre is in left for the Dodgers next year, it's a lateral move.

Still, hope springs eternal.

Let me join in the invocation: please oh please, let it be Pierre who is traded.

Reasons to keep Kemp and Ethier:
(1) They're better than Pierre (might as well begin with the obvious)
(2) Jones has a short term contract, and the Dodgers do not have much outfield depth in the system. All the more reason to keep some young outfielders.
(3) As a left-handed hitter, Ethier provides some balance to the heart of the lineup -- otherwise, only Loney hits left. Yeah, Pierre is a lefty as well, but that's less important batting after Furcal or in the 8 slot.
(4) Kemp could hit 40. Keep him. Keep him. He stings the ball like no one I've seen play for the Dodgers since, well, Piazza.

trade pierre not kemp, trade pierre not kemp...

You know there is a word for that. (Well not really a word.) Geez, you go away for a few days and your forgotten.

Banish Juan to Baltimore now please. Thanks.

Keep Ethier and Kemp!

An outfield like that makes me wanna buy season tickets.

I think we should have, however, signed him to a longer deal. In the very likely event that he rebounds, we will have missed out on a bargain.

1) Frank Robinson
2) Eddie Matthews
3) Johnny Bench

I was LATed.

Is that an appropriate use of the term?

(Us relative newbies -- we're just so uninformed)

Not that I can negotiate anything. I get taken to the cleaners by dry cleaners.

I will be positively ecstatic if they dump Pierre instead of Ethier or Kemp, but remember that we should still get a quality return if we do trade one of the youngsters.

My ideal scenario: trade Pierre for whatever, let LaRoche play 3B
Worst-case scenario: Kemp is traded at less than full value for a suboptimal choice (i.e. someone like Rolen)
My bold prediction: Kemp, Hu, and Meloan to the Orioles for Bedard and Tejada

Let LaRoche and Nomar battle it out at 3rd. I still think LaRoche is an undervalued prospect. Another pitcher would be nice in lieu of the Schmidt disaster, but a Schmidt, Penny, Lowe, Bills, Loazia/Kuo rotation is at least okay on paper.

on the other hand, i guess the angels paid hunter close to that much over 5 years, which is even worse.

Furcal SS
Martin C
Loney 1st
Kent 2b
Jones CF
Kemp RF
Eithier LF
LaRoche 3b
Penny P

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3143653

doom and gloom is not an option. kemp and either are not leaving. if anyone leaves it will be pierre. I don't know how it happened but the dodgers are making all the prudent moves. fear not these are golden days

Well, not our right outfielder - that's Kemp.

If it requires Ethier to get Bedard, well, OK. Otherwise, I sure hope not.

I suspect that, short of something like that (and how many "somethings" are there like Bedard?) they won't trade any outfielder. Ethier will start the year as 4th outfielder, but will have to be given chances in both left and right field, like last year. This year that will displace Pierre much more often than Kemp. Before the trading deadline, if Ethier is the good Ethier, Pierre will be on the verge of being 4th outfielder, and will instead get traded by the deadline, Dodgers eating much of the salary, for whichever part of the pitching staff needs bolstering (or, god forbid, some other position ruined by injury).

Well, we can hope,

According to Webster's it's "KERR-uh-sau," unless you're from Britain, or you're Vinny, then it's "KERR-uh-so."

And don't get me started on Jones' first name. Why on earth has a random letter "U" caused so many people to butcher the first name as "ON-drew"? It's not even part of the same syllable, people! Rick Monday, I hope you're listening. Just pretend you're saying "Andrew."

I can certainly live with that lineup. Nice balance too. Also, great defense as all are above average defensively except Kent at 2nd (Abreu will be a late inning defensive/pinch runner replacement often).

Pierre - Fredo (hat tip to Brock)
Logan White - Tom Hagen
Scott Boras - Hyman Roth
Jeff Kent - Sonny
J.D. Drew - Tessio
Bob Daly - Jack Woltz
Grady Little - Moe Greene
Larry Beinfest - Virgil Sollozzo
Tom Lasorda - Frank Pantangeli
Ned Colletti - Senator Pat Geary
Paul DePodesta - Apollonia

I agree. There is some more support for the rotation in case of injury this year. I wouldn't count on Kershaw yet though. I think he is a 2009/2010 arrival unless he gets his control under control from the get go in 08.

Jones will receive a $12.2 million signing bonus, of which $5.1 million is payable next year, $2.1 million in 2009 and $5 million in 2010. He well get salaries of $9 million next year and $15 million in 2009, and also will receive a no-trade clause

Now the Dodgers need to give Jones a bit more rest than Cox allowed. And Jones probably needs to get in better shape.

Doubt Jones ever gets back into peak form. He has too big of a swing, chases too many sliders. But a 115 OPS-plus, 30 HRs and good defense are realistic.

/end sarcasm

2008: $4m
2009: $5.5m
2010: $6.75m option ($250k buyout); arb eligible if option bought out

Source: Cots Baseball Contracts

Whether they sign Kuroda or trade for Bedard or his ilk, I expect the final payroll will be in the $115-$120m range, barring some other blockbuster or unexpected major move.

Anyway, I expect a big season out of Jones. Often times when a guy has an uncharacteristically bad year he follows it up with a big one. Think Mike Lowell 2006 or Paul Konerko 2004.

furcal
martin
kemp
jones
loney
kent
ethier
laroche
pitcher

May be wishful thinking on my part, but I think this does improve the chances of LaRoche getting a meaningful opportunity to win the job. Rolen's bat becomes less appealing, I suspect -- and maybe the Rolen stuff was a ruse relating to negotiations with Andruw.

If Kent comes back, you now have Martin, Loney, Kent, Furcal, Ethier/Kemp/Pierre/Jones and 3B. You can play LaRoche in that situation and Ned is now saying that the job will be up for grabs this spring.

My fear was that if Kent didn't come back and they did not add someone like Andruw Jones, the Dodgers would be more inclined to go after someone to play 3B.

Like I said earlier, we will have a better idea tomorrow when I am sure there will be a press conference or conference call but for now, hey I think we are back doing good moves now lets see if we can make a great move.

But wasn't Ethier one of dePodesta's acquisitions, or am I misreading that last graf?

Pitching need solved! :)

Haha, no! Ethier for Bradley/A. Perez ring a bell?

Kent has a contract in theory, he is on the 40 man roster, he does not get paid until Opening Day so really, the Dodgers cannot really force his hand until he is contractually bound to perform.

He cannot go to another team, demand a trade or anything. He could retire but I believe the Dodgers would still retain his rights if he tried to quit and then resign with someone else.

My hunch is that the Jones deal is enough for Kent to sign on, if they were to deal for a pitcher, that would clinch it.

That, or they started reading Dodger Thoughts since they keep stealing our ideas :)

There's no real guessing the batting order, and no reason to assume it would be the same from game to game anyway. Your points about Loney are valid, but even in your order there are three righties in a row.

I have Ethier batting eighth on the assumption that Nomar will be the opening day third baseman, and that he wouldn't bat eighth.

With Nomar and Pierre in the opening day lineup in place of Kemp and LaRoche, we'll still have a deeply flawed offense. Kemp will bring a boost to the rotation, but overall you'll be looking at a team that's a lot more expensive and potentially only a little bit better.

I hope I'm wrong!

Does Dylan Hernandez come up with this himself? Is he implying that Pierre is not expendable or is he conceding that he has no trade value?

---

107 It's not as if people cannot learn from their mistakes.

From LA Times. Looks like Pierre might be staying (yikes...).

For comparison purposes, the Twins have 23 of 38 homegrown players, 60.5%.

I thought of this being a Luis Gonzalez repeat scenario, but there are two key differences.

1. Andruw is only 30
2. Gonzo could not even DREAM of having the kind of defense A Jones brings every night. He makes it look so easy too.

I meant to say, "originally, I thought of this..."

Night all.

I mean, is there any argument that the Dodgers wouldn't consider trading Kemp or Ethier at this point? I'd lose Pierre, but I think it's axiomatic that Kemp or Ethier could go.

I think expendable can be a pejorative word, though, which is why the sentence comes across poorly.

There are just too many excuses for him to stay (e.g. speed, perceived ability to get on base) and for Kemp to leave (perceived attitude problems in the clubhouse and lack of base running skills).

Couldn't Ned have waited until Friday to sign Andruw Jones?

: that may be expended: as a: normally used up or consumed in service b: more easily or economically replaced than rescued, salvaged, or protected.

They Were Expendable (1945): Shortly after Pearl Harbor, a squadron of PT-boat crews in the Philippines must battle the Navy brass between skirmishes with the Japanese. The title says it all about the Navy's attitude towards the PT-boats and their crews.

There is no reason on earth to trade Kemp unless it brings a huge return. I understand the O's have already rejected Kemp and Kershaw for Bedard. We shouldn't have to go that much higher.

With Jones and Kemp both in the lineup, we can afford to be a little less solid in the pitching rotation.

11 teams want Bedard; I don't think we're getting him, and if we don't get him, I don't see Kemp going anywhere. Pierre and even Ethier might move in trades for smaller pieces, but Kemp is bait only for the biggest fish.

Pierre would be traded to get a middle reliever.

It's not as if the two guys are really competing with each other. If the Dodgers can't get suitable return on a deal with Kemp as a centerpiece, and knew they were going into Spring Training with four starting outfielders, they might well eat Pierre's contract in a trade. Or just let Ethier be 3.5 again.

But the reason Kemp is more likely to be traded is because at his salary, he is valued more highly by MLB. It's that simple.

I highly doubt, like 99.9999% doubt that the Orioles would have refused a Kemp/Kershaw for Bedard trade. That was never on the table!

The Dodgers, who have seemingly had one foot in and one foot out of just about every deal here, are probably not a contender for Bedard. The package that was supposedly offered was setup man Jonathan Broxton and outfielder Matt Kemp, but Dodgers GM Ned Colletti told an L.A. reporter he had no interest in trading Broxton, and a Dodgers source said they wouldn't trade Kemp unless they had already closed a deal with free agent Andruw Jones to replace him, which they did Wednesday.

With Kent and a healthy Furcal, the Dodgers are in position to have a team with the potential for double digit home runs at every spot. I think that is something that Ned and the rest of the front office has to consider before making their next deal.

One thing I did read was the Times saying Colletti said the price for Bedard was "too high." If it was too high Monday, it's still too high today, even if we have someone who's "expendable."

Either way, a good signing. I hope we hang on to Kemp, but if we move him for a Haren or Bedard, I won't be too broken up, either.

Things are looking up ...

http://tinyurl.com/27mjle

"A Dodgers source said that if the season began today, Pierre would compete with Andre Ethier for playing time in left field. Matt Kemp and Ethier would be penciled into right field.

"Another option is to trade an outfielder, but a source said that Kemp is not expected to be dealt despite the widespread interest in him. However, Colletti now has flexibility to come up with a package that might fetch a premier pitcher such as Erik Bedard of the Baltimore Orioles or Dan Haren of the Oakland A's. First, though, the Dodgers are trying to sign Japanese starter Hiroku Kuroda, who wants a four-year, $40 million deal and also is being pursued by the Seattle Mariners and Arizona Diamondbacks."

Of course we now have to see who the odd man out is in the outfield. Keeping Pierre would suck. If we got rid of Pierre, we'd go from 2/3rds of a terrible outfield last year to one of the best outfield defenses in the game with great arms in all three places. Signing another centerfielder a year after giving one $45 million means Ned as admitted his mistake. Jones isn't taking his 10 gold gloves and hall of fame bound resume out of center field. Hopefully Ned will realize that Pierre is a sunk cost and will Russ Ortiz him if necessary. I still think that with his 60+ steals last year, someone would be interested in having him at say half the price.

This is a great move. I'm salivating at the thought of a Kemp/Jones/Eithier outfield and the addition of Jones gives our lineup the much needed pop we're looking for.

If Ned can find ANYONE to take Pierre this will be a massively successful offseason.

Its righty heavy but it'll suffice.

Penny
Lowe
Billingsley
Kuroda
Schmidt

Again, right handed heavy but it works.

That would be gravvyyyyy.

If Colletti can sign Kuroda AND trade Pierre for ANYthing, I'll take back EVERY mean thing I've said about him.

... except anything involving his mustache.

IMO, the most likely scenario is that we enter ST with both Pierre and Ethier. What happens after that may depend on a lot on Torre. Then we would just pray that Ethier gets hot in ST and at the start of the season, while Pierre slumps. My impression is that once Torre decides to make a roster change, he tends to stick with it; hopefully he starts Ethier in LF, and Pierre becomes the 4th OF who's eventually traded.

WWSH

Yep, it works. We'd be real contenders for the pennant, especially with the pitching depth in the minors we have.

WWSH

But at least I now have happy thoughts to put me to sleep ... when I get there.

Ethier, Jones, Kemp ... an outfield to dream about.

1. There is no way (no way!) Andruw Jones deserves to be the fifth-highest paid player in 2008, much less the fifth-highest paid player in baseball history. Even at his best, he's nowhere near that good. What a farce.

2. Can we void his contract if his name shows up in the Mitchell Report?

Pierre:
.293/.331/.353/.685

Jones:
.222/.311/.413/.724

Pierre: .257

Jones: .259

Which was also his most recent.

Pierre .348
Jones .342

2007 OBP:

Pierre .331
Jones .311

Sad.

Pierre .374

Jones .497

Pierre .326 .330 .331

Jones .347 .363 .311

Pierre 84
Jones 113

Pierre 84
Jones 113

Career HR's

Jones 368 at age 30
Pierre 12 at age 30

There is no way this signing can be viewed as negative unless Kemp is the piece removed.

Ways in which this signing can be viewed as negative:

1. The very real possibility that we'll be paying someone the 5th highest salary ever to repeat his dismal 2007 season

2007 BABIP:
JP: .310
AJ: .242 (!)

PrOPS had him at .266/.351/.471 this past year based on batted ball types. I think he bounces back with a bit higher slugging.

Ratt last thread: When someone is urged to "walk into the light," doesn't that conventionally mean that they're, you know, dying . . .

Buck Martinez on XM five minutes: "Well, now Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are expendable." Sigh. When LaRoche proudly wears his nickname "The Hole," maybe those guys can team up as "The Expendables."

I'm glad colets and company keep this deal to 2 years

Its a start, we need power in our lineup, let me repeat, we need power in our lineup!

The sweaty one is back, ladies.

How's it goin Jon? I need to order some more DT shirts, as Christmas Presents.

By the way, I think this makes it more likely that LaRoche and not some stiff like Rolen is the third baseman. NedCo thinks he's added the power he needs.

I've lived in suburban Atlanta for seventeen years, and watched the Braves play a lot. Jones has never been a favorite, but he's an amazing defensive player, and if his elbow and mechanics get healthy, Jon's dream of yesterday may well come true.

For one thing, isn't OBP supposedly 2-3 times more important than SLG...?

Furcal
Martin
Loney
Jones
Blalock
Kent
Ethier
Kemp

Bedard seems a good one, but I don't know if he is really available. Did that crazy Oak-Twin-Mets trade go through?, guess I'll go check. I can only hope Pierre is in the trade, but someone who really deserves a chance to play is Young, though I doubt his hitting ability is appreciated enough to give him good trade value.

"Getting a long-term deal for those types of seasons are difficult," said Boras, "because you have a scaling that the club argues it happens only once and our opinion is it'll probably repeat itself."*

Gee. I wonder if his opinion is that Andruw Jones's 2007 will repeat itself.

And not to be a downer on a fun post-deal morning, but I find your digs at Jose Guillen kind of grating. I mean, I get there's plenty 'o room to criticize the man, but your tone is pretty harsh.

I guess so. My advisor wants me to do a pretty significant revision of chapters 5 and 6, which is what I'm working on as we speak. In general, he thinks they're too complicated and he wants me to cut out a bunch of stuff. My final document will probably be around 200 pages, with an additional 200 pages of stuff I had to cut out.

I don't really care too much about what happens, as long as I'm able to defend it in time to submit it at the April 11 deadline.

Just a chuckle. Followed by the dry heaves. No wonder Ned wanted to throw a ton of money at Andruw. The boss never wants to hire someone smarter than him.

This isn't good news. Overpaying a veteran past his prime is business as usual for Ned. Kemp's days as a Dodger are very short, I fear.

Is Andruw Jones currently better than Matt Kemp?

WWSH

Ned loves depth, and right now, we have pretty much none when it comes to OFs (I don't think Repko really counts, and Young's too unproven). For that reason, I think we'll probably open the season with Pierre and Ethier both on the roster.

WWSH

You assume correctly, and thanks for the well wishes. I have been encouraged by certain things thus far, but it is still very early in the process I'm a long way from actually getting a job, not to mention one that makes everyone in the household happy.

If it doesn't bring enough keep what we have. Jones takes 15 days off; Ethier takes off 10 as does Kemp and Pierre starts 35 and is our designated bunter and pinch runner the other 127 games.

WWSH

Jones: .221/.297/.397/.694
Pierre: .301/.338/.372/.710

Maybe a platoon is in order...

From:

http://tinyurl.com/2eaojg

Man, Repko must have had the worst ankle sprain ever.

WWSH

BTW: Of the 9 positions for which I've applied, UIUC is the best program for what I do. It looks like a cold place to live, and Mrs. D4P is not excited about moving to another relatively small town, but it would be a very good place for me.

Do you pull wings off of bats and tear puppies apart too?

Exactly.

www.uiuc.edu

Good luck with the job search D4P. I know how stressful it is.

Re: 215

Ken, if you're bored, here's the webpage of my Vintage baseball team--closest I come to re-enacting. The irony, as I tell my teammates, is I really know next to nothing about baseball history in the 1860s in any academic sense of the term:

http://chesapeakeandpotomac.org/

WWSH

Ken's published real books; I, OTOH, am currently trying to get my dissertation into publishable form.

WWSH

You mean it doesn't work that way?

Pierre + $10 million + Blake DeWitt for Noah Lowry. (the NedCo connection is there, it fills a need, and they get a guy they wanted in the first place at a discount.)

And since it's not my money sign Kuroda for 3 and $33.

I think this move has alot of upside. Hopefully it works out better than the Jason Schmidt move--which was somewhat similar.

Jones may be only 30 years old, but he could be an "old 30". He's been in the league for a long time.

http://tinyurl.com/2c6ldv

Go here D4P to get a look at some of the campus.

The next step for the Dodgers, if they are smart, would be to trade Kemp and other young talent for one of the top available starting pitchers — Orioles lefty Erik Bedard or A's righty Dan Haren.

I love that "if they are smart" part. Does he even watch baseball?

I was actually looking for a UIUC webcam the other day but couldn't find a functional one.

208 Assistant Professor salary is part of why I didn't stay in science. I hope its gone up relatively since then!

On the Dodger front, the ESPN Baseball today podcast for 12/5 mentioned that Texas has an interest in Pierre. Not saying that means anything imminent, just a data point. Not sure if Pascarelli or Gammons was the source.

Dodgers did not take anyone.
They lost Wright, as Canuck predicted.

No one took Nate's guy, Lubanski, or Eric Duncan.

Wasn't Duncan once almost our replacement for Adrian Beltre?

I'm surprised the Yankees left him unprotected. But I guess it didnt matter.

Anyhow, here's my question (and this has probably been discussed ad nauseum). How much trade value does Pierre really have? Like everyone here, I hope (that's not a strong enough word) they keep Kemp. But it seems that this past season has exposed Pierre's one dimensional skills more than in the past.

I realize his stats aren't all that much of a deviation from the norm, but - and maybe just because he's now with the dodgers and I pay a lot more attention - it seems that he's fairly widely viewed for what he is... Decent average, but low OBP. No power, below average defense. Is there left in MLB a 2006 Coletti who would be willing to take on his contract or trade anything meaningful?

The depressing part of the Jones deal is that two years from now we could have no Jones, no Kemp, and two more years of Pierre.

Like many others here, I applaud the Jones move, but my opinions of Colletti hinge greatly on what happens next.

Wow, people on ESPN Radio right now are not high on the Andruw Jones signing. Figures. The guy on right now is like what would happen if Plaschke had his own radio show.

Now I remember why I was initially reluctant to an Andruw Jones signing: I assumed that management would revive the Kemp/Ethier platoon. Provided that either Ethier or Kemp can play full time, I can put that worry to rest.

If there's one team that has stuck to its young guns this winter, it's the Dodgers. General manager Ned Colletti has had plenty of interest in a core of fantastic young players. Matt Kemp, Jonathan Broxton, Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, James Loney and Andy LaRoche all have been mentioned, at one time or another, in different trade scenarios.

So far, Colletti has resisted the urge to break up the family. The price, in his mind, has been way too high. And it's hard to argue with his logic.

"You fill a one-year need with a tremendous player," he told L.A.-area reporters on Tuesday night, "and look around and have three more needs to fill. I'm not sure how you gain ..."

The problem is this insistence that Pierre plays every day. If Torre can use him wisely -- part-time starting, 300-400 ABs, some pinch-running and pinch-bunting -- then he's valuable. Grossly overpaid, but valuable.

Or maybe, just maybe, Colletti has learned something from his numerous poor decisions.

If Jim Tracy can play Jason Phillips at 1B despite what his boss prefers, Joe Torre can play anyone but Pierre.

D4P is gloomy gus.

It's the University of California, Los Angeles.

All of the UCs have that format. Berkeley finally adopted the comma after several years of insisting on "at." I went to the "University of California at Berkeley."

That was after not wanting to use Berkeley in the name for a long time.

But that requires fewer characters. It's too easy to type...!

For future or existing airports?

the campus and surrounding area? no.

the student body? well, sure.

The Trade In Which The Dodgers Aquired Delino DeShields In Exchange For Pedro Martinez is gloomy gus.

Or would it be more accurate to say

The Guy Who Uses the Handle The Trade In Which The Dodgers Aquired Delino DeShields In Exchange For Pedro Martinez is gloomy gus.

we should trade pierre to a team with a couple solid middle relief pitchers, because i along with others suspect broxton and his lack of an effective third pitch isnt going to be the stud we thought he would be. we should eat as much as his salary as it takes to keep the lineups we've all suggested above. we have a core, its awesome, its exciting, its hopeful. some people are just complete wacko's on this site who fantasize about idiotic trades to Tampa Bay that make no sense.

For the 2007 NL season, OBP and SLG had a .9 correlation, with OPS at .95 (1 being perfect). BA came in less than .7.

My friend (Braves fan) thinks Andruw's contract year really hurt his performance in terms of BA - he really tried too hard at the plate, overswinging and not being selective.

The $8.7M margin is not enough to sign a quality FA pitcher such as Kuroda so I would assume a high salaried player would have to be traded.

Kemp, Ethier or LaRoche would not make much of a dent in the salary picture. Pierre $8M/Loaiza $7M, on the other hand, would free a nice chunk of change to help finance a quality FA pitcher, plus some fancy backup PVL.

Of course, this is based upon the assumption that Frank does not open his wallet a little wider.

Doesn't the expression "cut bait" simply mean idling? I think you were looking to say "cut ties", but maybe that seemed trite.