The Giants are in bad shape. They have tons of holes on offense, a terrible minor league system that is full of Juan Pierre skillset players. They do have some good starting pitchers that they can trade for hitting, but then that will just dilute their starting pitching. It's a catch 22 for them. They will be bad for some time.

vr, Xei

Sign Kuroda, and DO NOT trade Kemp. DO NOT trade KEMP. DO NOT trade KEMP.

I'll take the Pirates.

A point of clarification on your "top 6-10 candidates" - I'm assuming you mean the current projected starting 5 plus the top five, overall in the system after that?

For a hometown example, the next five in line to start in LA for spot starts are probably Hendrickson (we still control him as of now), Houlton, Stults, Kuo, and maybe Meloan. But the top five guys in the system include Kershaw, Elbert, McDonald and probably Withrow, though even with disasters none are highly likely to get a shot at starting in the first half of '08.

So...which are you looking for?

i'll take san francisco.

And it obviously was one of the worst trades in the last 30 decades.

30 years, hrm.

Cubbies.

Good advice from Chris DeLuca of the Chicago Sun Times!

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/deluca/685060,deluca120607.article

"The Sox are still in need of a legit leadoff hitter, and Pierre would team well at the top of the Sox' lineup with newly acquired shortstop Orlando Cabrera — Williams' lone bright spot this offseason — in the No. 2 spot. Say what you will about Pierre, but he would be an improvement over current leadoff favorite Jerry Owens.

And adding Pierre might make more sense than re-acquiring Rowand"

6 - Either/or.

4 - For the Dodgers, I would take (not in order necessarily) Billingsley, Lowe, Penny, Schmidt, Loaiza, Kuo, Stults, Kershaw, McDonald, Elbert.

8

That's the third time I've seen that reference in the last 12 hours. And the third time I've been 100% on board with the idea.

9 - Oh, you can throw Houlton in there too.

Jon, after reading Colletti's comments in the Times today, I have to disagree with your suggestion that the Dodgers are "contemplating" trading Kemp. When a GM says he would have to receive a trade proposal for a certain player that would make his jaw drop, he's not even close to contemplating trading that player. It's Plashcke and Tony Jackson and I'm sure lots of other irrelevent people who are "contemplating" trading Kemp.

Pierre's going to be traded, and I am betting it will be to the White Sox. We may have to eat a bit of money, but the White Sox (foolishly) seem to want the EXACT kind of player that Pierre is (a CF with lead-off experience who steals lots of bases), so we may even be in the driver's seat in the negotiations. They won't trade John Danks, so I say we ask for Gavin Floyd, or Gio Gonzalez. I wouldn't mind either one of them in the #5 slot in the rotation next year.

9 - Either/or what?

12 - if the Chisox give up another starter this offseason, I will eat my Dodger cap collection. Or something.

I would love to get the inside dirt on why Plaschke hates Kemp so much.

Well, I guess it'd be bad form not to take the Nationals.

13 30 decades or 30 years. In fact, you have to go back to 1624 to find a worse deal, when the Indians traded Manhattan to the Yankees for trinkets.

If the Giants trade Lincecum for Rios, I will move Sabean into the highest pantheon of idiots. There is simply no way you trade a young starter with that much potential for anyone other than a franchise bat.

As for Kemp, I sure hope Canuck is right. Just think how nice [and speedy] Pierre would look in a White Sox uniform.

15 Thanks for making me read that garbage. That's five minutes of my life I can't get back.

Since this is just research and requires no analysis on my part, I think I can handle one.

I'll do the Braves.

12 - I still think this will be a worthwhile exercise, whether the Dodgers trade Kemp or not. Colletti is saying the Dodgers need pitching.

10 Really? Late to the party again. Speaking of party, that is what I'll do if Pierre is moved to another team.

I don't think we need a real prospect in return, we just want to be rid of his contract. If someone is willing to take his contract, don't you think that is the key?

Or do you think that we'd have to eat a good chunk of the contract in order to get someone interested?

I really didn't think there would be a market for him. I hope I am totally wrong.

Oh yeah, for the final time, DO NOT trade Kemp.

14 -- Floyd spent a lot time in Triple A in 2007, and Gonzalez has never pitched above Double A, but has spent two years in Double A. With four other MLB starters who aren't going anywhere, the White Sox may not feel they have to hold on to both Floyd and Gonzalez. Anyway, it doesn't hurt to ask. Heck, since getting rid of Pierre is the most important thing, I'd settle for RHP Lance Broadway, who had a poor year in Triple A but looked good in the majors at the end of the season.

If the Kuroda deal falls through........why not bring in Bartolo Colon on a one year deal? What about Jeff Weaver on a one year deal? He has always pitched well in Dodger stadium and is very durable.

I'd much rather take this route than trading Kemp.

18 "Just think how nice [and speedy] Pierre would look in a White Sox uniform."

Once again, a good chuckle from this discussion group.... Good one Kinbote. I don't post too much, as usually someone else says what I would say anyway. Plus, I missed Turntable Thoughts, so what can can I say.

Maybe the dodgers can get another team into the mix on a three way deal with Pierre/Crede in play...

What is the general consensus on these guys as possible 4th/5th starters. They don't cost us talent, just money and a few might take shorter deals.

Hiroki Kuroda
Carlos Silva
Livan Hernandez
Freddy Garcia
Bartolo Colon
Jon Lieber

19. GMac, come here for a sec. Have a seat. Look, buddy, I don't know how to say this to make it hurt less, so I'm just gonna come out and say it. You need to take responsibility for your own choices, GMac. Nobody made you do anything, friend. I too was presented with the opportunity to read said article, and I took a pass. I didn't do it. Am I smarter than you? Nah, that's not it. Am I lazier? Could be. Reading that article would have required an intertubes surfing trip that would have made me tired and sad, and my heart just wasn't in it. Yeah, so that's what I'm sayin' buddy. You need to face the fact that you're too enterprising. Too willing to read, and reading just leads to thinking, which just kills more brain cells. Be more lazy - that's my message. Stay put. Don't go looking for trouble. I'm glad we had this chance to talk. GMac. S'all good.

I think a few weeks ago one of the big baseball analysis sites did projected 2008 lineups and rotations; does anyone remember where those are?

6 , 9 , 13 : that was exactly what I was thinking when I read that quote. I mean, there's hyperbole, and there's hyperboooooole.

BTW, if Kemp is traded in any form, no matter what we get in return, it could be the worst trade in 30 centuries.

28

Nevermind; I think I found it: rotoworld.

I will take Arizona.

Considered as a whole, is a Jones, Kemp, Ethier, Pierre, Young/Repko outfield that bad? I know it depends on who gets the bulk of playing time, but I could see a PVM like Torre handling a situation like this rather well.

In terms of dough, we're set to have something resembling a $30m outfield, a $30m infield, a $50m rotation [pending Kuroda or trade], and a $10m bullpen.

Obviously, a Pierre trade is ideal (I plan on spontaneously breaking several rules if/when that day comes), but failing that, we might just have to trust Torre to sort out this mess. In fact, maybe that's the main reason we added him: Colletti likes tangled rosters and he needed a manager who could pull the right strings.

It's funny, I had both Lincecum and Rios on my fantasy team last year. I loved Rios. He was a phenomenally consistent producer, while Lincecum had flashes of brilliance punctuated by shellings.

That said, if I was the Giants, I'd rather have Lincecum. I don't know how much Rios will help them, but a killer rotation can keep the team competitive.

25 Actually, Gr-ool [May I call you "Gr-ool"?], that line is kind of ripped off from Jon's letter to Colletti a few posts ago. As the poet said, "The moon is a thief: he steals his silvery light from the sun."

33 I agree, and I'm not even that sure that Rios can keep it up. And even if he can, the Giants will still have no one else who will scare anyone on offense (if things stand as they are), in which case he won't make much of a difference anyway. While I'm not sure that Lincecum will be another Pedro, and Rios is better than Delino... that trade still seems like a mistake to me.

32 No, it's not a bad outfield at all, has depth and can be very effective. But again, yeah, it's the 'How do you solve an outfielder like Pierre-a?' issue...

The studly Pierre stylin' in the Sox uniform creates an image of him on the cover of GQ.

No wait, he'd be featured on the cover of the lesser known E8 magazine.

I'll do the Mets, because I'm lazy. Is it possible they won't even have 6?

31- You have made a powerless and easily distracted enemy, my friend. But I'm a man of great cruelty, so, there's that. Beware!

I guess I'll take the Rockies.

27 Ears of Gob,

Thanks for the reminder, and I take full responsibility for my misstep. It won't happen again.

But for the record, I wasn't being too enterprising, too willing to read or just not lazy enough, I was trying to melt the time away at work. Obviously next time, I will choose alternative activities like computer chess, counting the tiles on the ceiling in my office or reading more inspiring and well-researched articles like this one http://tinyurl.com/2ec7e4. :)

~GMac

Paranoid--Did you order the RH discbox? I'm hoping to get mine today. It shipped Monday and they said 5-18 days for U.S. orders.

The Pirates. Figuring out who the six through 10 starters were was not easy since they're all pretty much interchangeable.

Note that I consider almost anyone on the 40 man roster higher on the depth chart than all but the highest ranking prospects

After Snell and Gorzelanny the organization pretty much consists of low ceiling number five starters, not a great way to dig yourself out of 15 years of losing seaons.

Numbers listed as IP/K/BB/ERA+ (ERA for minor leaguers). Age is listed in brackets besides the player's name.

Ian Snell (26)
2007: 208/177/68/116
2006: 186/169/74/94
2005(MLB): 42/34/23/82
2005(AAA Indianapolis): 112/104/23/3.70

Tom Gorzelanny (25)
2007: 201.7/135/68/112
2006(MLB): 61.7/40/31/117
2006(AAA Indianapolis): 100/94/27/2.34
2005(MLB): 6/3/3/35
2005(AA Altoona): 129.7/124/46/3.26

Paul Maholm (26)
2007: 177.7/105/49/87
2006: 176/117/81/94
2005(MLB): 41.3/26/17/194
2005(AA Altoona): 81.7/75/26/3.20
2005(AAA Indianapolis): 35.7/21/12/3.53

Matt Morris (33)
2007(PIT/SF): 198.7/102/61/90
2006(SF): 207.7/117/63/90
2005(STL): 192.7/117/37/103

Zach Duke (25)
2007: 107.3/41/25/79
2006: 215.3/117/68/99
2005(MLB): 84.7/58/23/234
2005(AAA Indianapolis): 108/66/23/2.92

John Van Benschoten (28)
2007(MLB): 39/26/29/43
2007(AAA Indianapolis): 109/79/51/4.70
2006(MLB): 28.7/18/19/62 (Injured for most of the season, threw 23 innings across three minor league levels)
2005: Did not pitch

Yoslan Herrera (27)
2007(AA Altoona): 128.2/70/38/4.69
Defected from Cuba in 2007

Brian Bullington (27)
2007(MLB): 17/7/5/82
2007(AAA Indianapolis): 150.7/89/59/4
2006: Did not pitch
2005(AAA Indianapolis): 109.3/82/26/3.38

Ty Taubenheim (25)
2007(AA New Hampshire): 31.1/29/11/2.01
2007(AAA Syracuse): 89/73/33/6.37
2006(AAA Syracuse): 76/48/18/2.84
2005:(A+ Brevard County): 106/75/26/2.63
2005:(AA Huntsville): 64/44/24/4.36

Phil Dumatrait (26)
2007(CIN): 18/9/12/31
2007(AAA Louisville): 125/76/49/3.53
2006:(AA Chattanooga): 50/45/22/3.50
2006:(AAA Louisville): 88/58/36/4.70
2005:(A+ Sarasota): 10/3/0/2.70
2005:(AA Chattanooga): 127.7/101/70/3.17

40 Yep. I got my email from W.A.S.T.E. saying "your discbox has been dispatched".

I can't wait for the disc B. I dont know what I'll do with the vinyls.

FYI: European tix are on sale right now. Still some tix for the Amsterdam show on July 1st.

KLM/Northwest has direct flights from LA.

42
I thought KLM had one nonstop LAX-Amsterdam flight every day.

I've been on that flight a few times.

Amsterdam is full of very tall people who all speak English better than native English speakers.

Bullington and Matt Bush---which one is a bigger bust?

44 Bush, easily. Bullington will at least make some spot starts in his career.

43 By direct I meant non-stop. Under 11 hours.

I've been on the flight once, got bumped up to 1st class too. Was my best distance flight ever.

I love Europe. Haven't been since someone starting calling me "Da,da".

The wife gave me permission to go the show in AMS, but I declined. I don't have any mates to join me unless one comes forward. I have enough flyer miles on Northwest to get a free ticket.

Whats the real story on Matt Bush?

Is he a guy that wasnt very good to begin with, and the Padres made a collosal mistake in taking him? Or has he had injury problems, or is he just a guy that took the money and quit working on his game?

Looking at his minor league numbers---wow.
Really really really bad.

42 46 I told my wife I don't envy the jet-setter life too often, but Radiohead in Amsterdam? I'd be there in a heartbeat. It's one of my favorite cities. (I have the same "da-da" issue.)

We're mates, right? :)

17. lol

47 They converted him to a pitcher. He did well but he was shut down because of arm troubles. Not sure how serious they are.

48 Are you serious? I actually would pull the trigger. I'd leave on the 29th of June (5:40 pm) and return the 2nd of July at 1 pm.

You'd be welcome to come and go as you please, but for me, three nights away is my max.

That's five minutes of my life I can't get back

Ooh, you hit a pet peeve. Please let me know when you can get even a second of your life back, and what action triggered it.

46 I love Europe, too. Especially The Final Countdown. But I also enjoy Carrie, Ninja, and Cherokee.

The Orioles wanted Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw and Andy LaRoche from the Dodgers for Erik Bedard, the Boston Herald reports.
--rotoworld

I can't believe NedCo didn't pull the trigger. Wow.

54 Are you being sarcastic or are you upset that he didn't? Because that's WAY WAY too much for Bedard.

47 -- It's a long story, really. But in truth, nobody thought Bush should be the #1 pick. Padres' ownership wouldn't pay the money demanded for anybody who deserved to go first in the draft, so the team was ordered to go cheap with a pre-draft deal for somebody, and Bush was a local boy. Also, scouts had concerns before the draft that while Bush could field and throw, he might not be a guy who would hit. On top of that, Bush demonstrated poor make-up as soon as he was drafted, trying to get into a bar he wasn't old enough to be in, and getting into a fight when he was denied entry. Just a complete car-wreck of a draft pick. Probably the worst ever #1 overall pick.

34 Just like cool musicians do. Boy, you guys are helping get in a frame of mind to plan a trip. Amsterdam's one of the places I want to go. Used to go places a lot more often, then there were the kids, the job, the house & mortgage, planning for their college...All good things, which never-the-less can distract one from (expensive) travel. Well anyway, a person still needs to live.

51 I'm not sure. The biggest hurdles would be getting the actual tix and committing. Perhaps we should move this to email. I'm paoloawheaton@yahoo.com.

[sorry folks!]

That's not Jaw dropping!!

54 -- The Dodgers would have been stupid to make that deal.

53
Regarding my first ever girlfriend, in 7th grade: Carrie was one of "our songs". (Her name was Amy).

58 This trip intrigues me. As a big Radiohead fan myself, I kind of want to hear where this conversation is going.

57 DT party in Amsterdamage!!!

54 59 or it is jaw dropping, actually. But in the opposite way.

In case anybody's wondering, I didn't actually claim LA far, far above - just used them for an example, so claim away. If anybody's still available once the workweek ends tonight I might take a crack at one.

55 I was being sarcastic.

58 I'll email you. I'm at work, can't access home email here and work email has filters. Might not get your email back, but I'll try. I'll email a phone number for later.

Tix are still surpringly available for the show. Airplane tix are another matter if you don't have flyer miles banked.

66 Okay. My sarcasm meter gets a little clunky when it's cold outside.

Ah, got here too late for the Mets. I'll take the Cardinals.

68 Very understandable. I think my delivery was a bit off since my toes are a touch chilly.

And believe me, sending those three for MCAB would've made me ill. Giving them up for the O's lefty would've made me call in sick for a week.

52 Same here. I'd offer up the option for people to choose some worthy activity they normally wouldn't do, in lieu of browsing on the Internet, to regain that 5 minutes.

64 Jaw raising?

70 And believe me, sending those three for MCAB would've made me ill.

It appears the Dodgers were giving the opportunity to do so but declined.

Marlins GM takes issue with Moreno

>> Before finalizing the trade with the Tigers, the Marlins called the Dodgers and White Sox to give them one last chance to sweeten their offers for Cabrera. They did not extend that courtesy to the Angels, who probably wouldn't have budged, anyway. <<

LA Times

14 How 'bout your Cubbie hat collection :)

Dayn Perry gets it right. fox.com

Scenario No. 4: Los Angeles Dodgers
If the Dodgers are smart, they'll make Juan Pierre go away or deploy him like the fourth-outfielder-in-starter's-clothing he is. Andruw Jones (a very wise signing, by the way) will be the everyday center fielder and Matt Kemp, if common sense prevails, will be a regular at one of the wing outfield positions. However, there's talk the Dodgers might package Kemp and gifted young lefty Clayton Kershaw for Santana. If that happens, the Twins should jump on it.

Kemp's a future All-Star who, in a Minnesota uniform, could realistically become the first AL center fielder since Ken Griffey Jr. to win a home run title. Kershaw's also got tremendous upside and, provided he stays healthy and harnesses his stuff, could develop into an ace. It's far from certain that the Dodgers would make such an offer, but if they do, the Twins should accept it without hesitation.

The addition of Santana would give the Dodgers the best rotation in baseball and make them the favorites in the division. However, such a move would keep Pierre in the lineup (not a good thing) and rob them of two lavishly gifted young talents. Santana would dominate in the non-DH league and in the generally pitcher-friendly parks of the NL West, but he'd come at a steep price for L.A. It would be a tough call for Dodgers GM Ned Colletti; it would not be a tough call for Twins GM Bill Smith.

Looks like Mike Piazza is going to retire...Wouldn't it be cool to sign him to back up Martin for a year? I'd like to see a few more homers in a Dodger uniform!

I'll take the Padres since they have 2 guys that pitched for the Dodgers.

76 So Randy Wolf counts or does not count?

15 There may be many reasons to love, like, or loathe Matt Kemp, but as for Plaschke's reasons, I think you'd have to ask Tommy Lasorda.

Someone brought up in an ESPN chat today why Melky Cabrera is generally regarded higher than Ethier. It's interesting to look at, given that Cabera's name tends to end up as a prominent piece of any package the Yanks are rumored to be offering while Ethier tends to be regarded as a second tier guy in trade rumors.

Both have 2 full years in the bigs and a similar # of games played (286 for Cabrera to 279 for Ethier), though Cabera has almost 200 more AB's (1024 to 843).

Cabrera posts a line of .275/.340/.388 -- 728 OPS. Ethier: .295/.357/.464 -- 821 OPS

Obviously Cabrera plays a more difficult outfield position, but nothing I've seen would tell me that Ethier couldn't easily play a serviceable centefield.

79 I think Ethier is too slow to play a solid centerfield. He's a corner guy.

78 Is there a way to trade Lasorda? I just wish he'd go away already. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's the reason we'd sour on Kemp. Maybe Matt didn't bow quickly enough.

79 Three things:

Ethier probably can't actually play center, he's too slow.

Ethier is three years older.

Cabrera is a young player on the Yankees, which obviously makes him the best player ever.

Jon, you got a link from Neyer today:

Over at Dodger Thoughts, Jon Weisman has a great roundup of the Web's reaction to the Dodgers bringing Andruw Jones aboard. Consensus? It's a solid move unless they're foolish enough to keep Juan Pierre -- who should become the world's best example of a sunk cost -- in the lineup.

82 - But Cabrera is a CFer simply because they play him there. According to Bill James +/-, Cabrera scored a -22.

What are the examples of Plaschke hating Kemp? I seem to be in the dark.

84 Huh. Then it's pretty much just an age thing, but I'd probably rather have Ethier at this point if Melky is that bad.

I was LAT'ed, but there's some speculation about Ethier to the Rays:

http://www.sptimes.com/2007/12/07/Rays/Rays_taking_patient_a.shtml

85 One example in today's LA Times.

"But of all the Dodgers kids last summer, Kemp was the most raw, the most difficult to coach, often the most perplexing."

Kuroda's 2007 rate stats from the Japanese Baseball League last year are pretty similiar to those predicted this year of Lowe and Billingsley. I'm sure Kuroda's stats would dilute a bit in the MLB.
vr, Xei

don't want Al Reyes or Wheeler for Ethier.
vr, Xei

The Rockies rotation looks better than I thought it would. I didn't realize Aaron Cook has been so good. He was BABIP happy, last year, so he'll probably regress, but not too shabby.

I'll steal regfairfield's format:

IP/K/BB/ ERA+ (or unadjusted Minor League ERA; multiple MiL stops in one year get bundled together)

Jeff Francis (27)
2007: 215.3 165 63 114
2006: 199 117 69 118
2005: 183.7 128 70 84

Aaron Cook (29)
2007: 166 61 44 116
2006: 212.7 92 55 116
2005: 83.3 24 16 130
2005 (MiL) 32 17 8 (5.06)

Missed half of 2005 having a rib removed (eek) because it was impairing his circulation.

Franklin Morales (22)
2007: 39.3 26 14 140
2007 MiL: 112.7 93 58 (3.51)
2006 A+: 154 179 89 (3.68)
2005 A: 96.3 108 48 (3.08)

Ubaldo Jimenez (23)
2007: 82 68 37 112
2007 AAA: 103 89 62 (5.85)
2006: 7.7 3 3 139
2006 MiL: 151 150 83 (3.81)
2005 MiL: 135.3 131 71 (4.66)

Jason Hirsch (26)
2007: 112.3 75 48 100
2007 AAA: 13 7 4 (4.85)
2006: 44.7 29 22 74
2006 AAA: 137 118 51 (2.10)
2005 AA: 172.3 165 42 (2.87)

Taylor Buchholz (26)
2007: 93.7 61 20 113
2006: 113 77 34 75
2006 AAA: 44 37 17 (4.91)
2005 AAA: 76.7 45 27 (4.81)

Tommy John and shoulder injuries account for the short 2005.

Greg Reynolds (22)
2007 AA: 50.7 35 9 (1.42)
2006 A+: 48.7 29 14 (3.33)
2005 Stanford: 127.7 108 32 (3.31)

Listed as a top ten Rockies prospect by BA, 2007 PECOTA thinks he's the next coming of Denny Bautista. Lousy Cardinal hating computer. . .

Samuel Deduno (24)
2007 MiL: 135 129 73 (5.53)
2006 A+: 146 167 92 (4.81)
2005 A: 89.7 110 65 (5.62)

Their AAA affiliate rotation looks ugly, but I kind of like Deduno who advanced to AA, in 2007. Mostly his name, but also he strikes out lots of people. Though he seems to walk the rest.

87

The Rays well should be off limits...Forever.

79 - the difference in ABs but not games played is likely due to Either being used as a late inning defensive sub and/or pinch hitter. Personally, I think the guy is being highly underrated, but what do I know...

Jim Baker on the Dodgers:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6980

36
i dont know if it's BAD but it could get messy...5-6 outfielders might be crowded...i say we stick with the conventional 3 OF, 4 IF, and a pitcher and catcher.
but what do i know

actually, the well can be open for Jamie Shields, then close back up again.

um 95 was for 32 sorry

Has Lasorda ever publicly reflected on his disastrous opinion of Pedro? Does he stand by it, does he regret it, or does he try to cover it up?

96 - Or Ethier for Kazmir? Done! ;-)

94 - What's he say? (For those of us sans BP subscriptions)

94 For us non-subscribers, can you give a quick recap?

Chicago's 2007 rotation:

Ted Lilly (Age 31, 34 G, 3.83 ERA, 15-8, 207.0 IP, 28 HR, 55 BB/174 K, 122 ERA+) -- one of last offseason's best free agent values, Lilly stayed healthy and led the Cubs' rotation in ERA. He's got a healthy strikeout rate (7.53 K/9) about in line with his career norms. Also led the staff in home runs, something to watch. His big problem going forward will be age, of course, but his transition to the NL Central from the AL East has been smooth, as expected.

Carlos Zambrano (Age 26, 34 G, 3.95 ERA, 18-13, 216.1 IP, 23 HR, 101 BB/177 K, 118 ERA+) -- While Mark Prior and Kerry Wood got all the acclaim in 2003, Big Z was quietly getting it done for the Cubs, too, and until this year has functioned as an ace-without-the-title for Chicago. He's emotional, and in-season contract talks this year seemed to undo him for a time after he inked his first big deal. Though he has a reputation as an extreme groundball pitcher, a virtual necessity at the Wrigley bandbox, it's a trait he's steadily losing (1.39 G/F in 2007). Only 26 this year, Zambrano still has some room to improve, though questions about overuse early in his career cloud his future.

Jason Marquis (Age 28, 34 G, 4.60 ERA, 12-9, 191.1 IP, 22 HR, 76 BB/109 K, 101 ERA+) -- What do you see when you look in the mirror in the morning? If you're Jason Marquis, you see a nearly league-average pitcher; as the 2007 Baseball Prospectus put it, "it's as if starting 32-plus games three years in a row obligates baseball to make you rich, regardless of your ability to prevent runs." The Cubs were talking him up as a hidden gem in the first half, as he posted a neat 3.73 ERA before the break, but he all but completely fell apart after (5.73 ERA). As mediocre as this season was for him, it represented a substantial step up from his abysmal 2006 (74 ERA+) when he was left off the Cardinals' postseason roster. His peripherals (5.12 K/9, 1.43 K/BB) are near the bottom end of effectiveness, and his 2006 could easily be a harbinger of worse to come.

Rich Hill (Age 27, 32 G, 3.92 ERA, 11-8, 195 IP, 27 HR, 63 BB/183 K, 119 ERA+) -- The new kid on the Addison block, Hill throws an 11-5 curve that elicits comparisons to Barry Zito in his prime when it's working well. Hill can dial up the heat some, too (IIRC he's got a 93-94 MPH fastball), and though that combination tends to elicit a lot of flyballs, his ERA is well above league average. 2007 was his first full season in the majors; entering his prime, he'll be looking to improve on a set of very impressive numbers that include rotation-leading peripherals of 8.45 K/9 and 2.45 K/BB.

Sean Marshall (Age 24, 21 G, 3.92 ERA, 7-8, 103.1 IP, 13 HR, 35 BB/67 K) -- A surprise entrant to the Cubs rotation, Marshall hadn't pitched above AA when the team called him up in 2006. He improved substantially in 2007, despite a second half in which his ERA ballooned by nearly a whole run (3.48 in the first half, 4.35 in the second). One reason for that was returning too early from an oblique strain in 2006 that led him to deliver seven dingers in August. There's room for improvement, as his peripherals aren't especially impressive (5.84 K/9, 1.91 K/BB), a fact he makes up for by keeping the ball on the ground (1.51 G/F).

102 - looks like I can't follow direction well. Stats history to come.

Joe Sheehan aka Andrew S. is doing a chat on BP today.

jwilliamsjr (atlanta): How are the Dodgers planning to find AB's for Loney, Nomar and LaRoche? Who will end up being the most productive? it would seem that LaRoche has the highest ceiling.....true? Thanks.

Joe Sheehan: I think Loney has the higher ceiling between he and Laroche, with the potential to have a peak year like Derrek Lee's 2005. I really love the guy. LaRoche and he both should play over Garciparra, who's basically had two good months since 2004.

jwilliamsjr (ATL): E.Longoria vs Ian Stewart vs Andy LaRoche? Can you rank their futures? Thanks.

Joe Sheehan: Stewart isn't in that group at this point. He has no place to play, and his power may never come. Longoria is going to be in the top two of just about every prospect list this year, the favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year award and an MVP candidate throughout his peak. LaRoche has less power than Longoria, and will hit .280 rather than .310.

Who's Andrew S.?

Wow, I've actually been compelled to defend Noah Lowry on Bronx Banter. This must be Upside Down Day. But I give up...

98 We'd probably have to ask Bob, who read the whole Lasorda book by Plaschke so we wouldn't have to... https://griddle.baseballtoaster.com/archives/872470.html#fold

Bob, did he talk about it much in the book?

John Maine, 26
2007: 191 IP, 75 BB 180 K, 109 ERA+
2006: 90 IP, 33 BB 71 K, 121 ERA+
2006: (AAA): 56.2 IP, 20 BB 48 K, 3.49 ERA
2005: 40 IP, 24 BB 24 K, 69 ERA+
2005: (AAA): 128.1 IP, 42 BB 111 K, 4.56 ERA
He still walks too many people and he had an ugly 5.53 ERA after the break last year (he was with Brad Penny as a Cy Young candidate at the break with a 2.71 ERA).

Oliver Perez, 26
2007: 177 IP, 79 BB 174 K, 120 ERA+
2006: 112.2 IP, 68 BB 102 K, 67 ERA+
2005: 103 IP, 70 BB 97 K, 72 ERA+
2004: 196 IP, 81 BB 239 K, 145 ERA+
After walking 6 batters per 9 in 2005 and 5 per 9 in 2004 he is down to 4 in 2007. He would be a great fifth starter, but is a crazy risky number 2.

Orlando Hernandez, 38 or 42 depending on who you believe (Mets say 38, BB-ref says 42)
2007: 147.2 IP, 64 BB 128 K, 115 ERA+
2006: 162.1 IP, 61 BB 164 K, 96 ERA+
2005: 128.1 IP, 50 BB 91 K, 88 ERA+
He had a sprained ankle and a bunion that kept him out of the rotation towards the end of last season, but at 42 he is always an injury risk going forward.

Pedro Martinez, 36
2007: 28 IP, 7 BB 32 K, 166 ERA+
2006: 132.2 IP, 39 BB 137 K, 97 ERA+
2005: 217 IP, 47 BB 208 K, 145 ERA+
Supposedly he is fully recovered from the rotator cuff tear he had, but it is a long shot that he will ever pitch 200 innings again.

Mike Pelfrey, 24
2007: 72.2 IP, 39 BB 45 K, 76 ERA+
2007: (AAA) 74 IP, 26 BB 56 K, 4.01 ERA
2006: 21.1 IP, 12 BB 13 K, 79 ERA+
2006: (A+,AA,AAA) 96.1 IP, 33 BB 109 K, 2.43 ERA
2005: (NCAA) 139.2 IP, 30 BB 143 K, 1.93 ERA
He is penciled in at the number 5 right now.

Phillip Humber, 25
2007: 7 IP, 2 BB 2 K, 55 ERA+
2007: (AAA) 139 IP, 44 BB 120 K, 4.27 ERA
2006: 2 IP, 1 BB 2 K, 0.00 ERA
2006: (Rk, A+,AA) 76.1 IP, 20 BB 79 K, 2.83 ERA
2005: (A+,AA) 74.1 IP, 20 BB 67 K, 5.09 ERA
Had Tommy John Surgery in 2005, but should be fully recovered by now.

Jorge Sosa, 30
2007: 112.2 IP, 41 BB 69 K, 95 ERA+
2006: 118 IP, 40 BB 75 K, 82 ERA+mary.burch says…
2005: 134 IP, 64 BB 85 K, 166 ERA+
Except for his magic season with the Braves in 2005 he is a fifth starter with his only value coming when he doesn't give up many homers.

Aaron Heilman, 29
2007: 86 IP, 20 BB 63 K, 140 ERA+
2006: 87 IP, 28 BB 73 K, 120 ERA+
2005: 108 IP, 37 BB 106 K, 130 ERA+
He has been in the bullpen since 2005 when he had a 4.60 ERA over 7 starts (43 IP) but the rumor mill says he might get another shot at the rotation.

Kevin Mulvey, 22
2007: (AA,AAA) 156.2 IP, 43 BB 113 K, 3.20 ERA
2006: (Rk, AA) 15.1 IP, 5 BB 11 K, 1.17 ERA
2006: (NCAA) 92.1 IP, 23 BB 88 K, 3.61 ERA
Not on the 40 man roster yet, but he will probably see some time in 2008.

The Dodgers don't need a starter in 2008, but the Mets almost certainly will. No one pitched 200 innings last year and everyone in their rotation has serious risks associated with them.

I'd like to do the Brewers, but I don't have time until saturday. I think they are definitely trading partners if we're willing to deal LaRoche and maybe even if not. They're looking to shop 1-3 pitchers with Capuano probable the most desirable (lefty). They're concerned with Braun's defense (though I'm not sure that that's really that warranted yet) and some think a move to LF is possible. If no one else does it by Sunday, I will.

P4D was all Jody Reed's fault!

110 Right. But Lasorda also had made it clear to the Dodger brass he didn't think Pedro had the makeup of a starting pitcher. If the Dodgers had sent Pedro Astacio to the Expos for DeShields, that would have been a bad trade, but not era-definingly bad. Martinez was considered expendable because manager-for-life Lasorda had the power within the organization to say he was.

Was going to do the Mets, but I see I was beaten to the punch. Just a few additional thoughts:

Maine: his decent history was masked a bit by weird promotions in Baltimore. His cieling is no higher than his current performance, and he will likely regress slightly from last year, but he's solid--4ish ERA.

Perez: He will regress from last year (FIP was 4.36). His success is all about walks. If he keeps them under control, he's a very good pitcher, and a 4 ERA give or take is very likely.

Pedro: injury risk is real, but so is performance. Probably won't go 200 IP, but probably will give 3.5 ERA or better for the innings he pitches. At 150+, he's still one of the top pitchers in the game.

Hernandez: Last year was his best in years, and will likely regress. K-rate actually declined in 07, and walks went up, so he was lucky. A 5 ERA is likely.

Pelfrey: He's still a top prospect, but the Mets have handled him terribly. In his first year, 06, he pitched at 4 different levels. In 07, it was 3. He simply hasn't had a chance to develop the way a pitcher should. A smarter team would have let him spent all of 06 at A and AA, and all of 07 at AA or AAA, depending on how he did. Then he could have come into 08 with a chance to succeed. As is, 08 is entirely unpredictable, and his trade value is limited. Whoops.

Heilman: He should start, but never has. If he did, he'd be John Maine. Funny that the Mets are comfortable resurrecting pitchers mishandled by other teams (Maine, Perez), but can't handle their own pitchers (Pelfrey, Heilman), and are unwilling to give them a second chance after they fail to dominate on day 1.

Humber: He's better than Pelfrey, and actually did well in a hitter's environment last year coming off surgery. He likely needs another year in the minors before he can come up, given the injury setback.

In short, the Mets have four pitchers they should be able to count on for 4ish ERAs in Maine, Petey, Perez and Heilman, and one old vet who should avoid shellings and occassionally pitch well but ultimately isn't that good in Hernandez. But they may not follow their best plan, and will likely give up on Pelfrey, Heilman and someone else for a decent but not stud pitcher (or overpay for Silva).

42 - Paranoid, are you serious about not wanting that Vinyl? We may be able to work something out, there...that was the only part of that box that intrigued me.

anyways, long time listener first time caller and i'm very happy the way this off season is shaping up. just don't dump Kemp, Ned!!!

Keep up the wonderful blog, John.

112 - way to bungle the first post.

Keep up the wonderful blog, Jon.

amateur hour here. must be b/c it's friday. sorry, mean myself, not Jelm.

back to typing school.

Sams are multiplying around DT like tribbles.

107
Sorry, distracted a bit by reading what I find to be the really weird Lute Olson story....

I don't have the book around anymore, but Lasorda and Plaschke don't talk much about the Martinez-Deshields trade at all.

In fact, the Dodgers from 1991-1994 don't exist at all. Apparently, they lost because they didn't respond to Lasorda's incredibly charismatic leadership style.

And they pretty much stunk.

Darryl Strawberry was mentioned briefly and Lasorda said he supported him because drug abuse was a disease. A disease which Strawberry didn't seem to cure with any success, I would add.

111 - If I recall, Lasorda's description of Pedro included "frail", didn't it? But Tommy, don't you see those loooooooong fingers!?!?!?!

111 - To be fair, a 1992 trade of Astacio would have just broken my heart.

115 - No sweat. Welcome :)

For those in need of some humor:

http://tinyurl.com/2rknol

112 - I am less bullish than you about the current crop the Mets have. Maine, Perez, El Duke and Pedro all deserve shots in 08, but it is almost inevitable that one of Perez, Hernandez or Pedro will be on the DL or see a huge dip in performance. Very likely two or three of them are unreliable for most of the year.

In the next tier of Heilman, Pelfrey and Humber there is a lot of promise of at the very least some league average innings. On the other hand, Pelfrey and Humber have basically zero major league experience and Heilman has been a reliever for 3 years. A backup plan or three wouldn't be a bad idea. I don't know enough about that team to say they need to make a trade, but I would be leery of standing pat with the rotation what it is. Maybe overpaying a little bit for Carlos Silva (he would be the only pitcher on the team who didn't give up too many walks) wouldn't be such a bad idea.

113 I would save the vinyls as part of the collectible but would be willing to part with them too, I just need to see the whole set to make that decision. The discbox came out to about 82 USD. I'm not sure what is all in there.

I do know that I won't be playing the vinyl anytime soon, it's been a long time. I have Pearl Jam vinyl from fanclub mailings at the holidays, and a bunch of old stuff. Even one original Apple copy of Meet The Beatles, but it's in poor shape.

Colletti was just on loose cannons. Said a bunch of things we already know. Emphasized the importance of keeping the young players because the FA market is getting thinner each year. However, implied that he'd trade Kemp plus another player for a top-line starter (Bedard probably).

The KLAC hosts failed to ask anything about the outfield controversy.

Let's keep the NL East Rolling:

ATLANTA BRAVES

The top of the Braves' rotation is set, with Smoltz, Hudson, and Glavine. After that, it gets dicier, with some mediocre talent and a bunch of young prospects. Braves bloggers seem to think an upgrade trade for Blanton or Haren is likely.

John Smoltz (40)
2007: 205.7 IP/197 K /47 BB/ 137 ERA+
2006: 232 IP/211 K /55 BB /127 ERA+
2005: 229.7 IP /169 K /53 BB /138 ERA+

Mitigating Factor: Old (for a baseball player, Jon).

Tim Hudson (32)
2007: 224.3 IP /132 K /53 BB /128 ERA+
2006: 218.3 IP /141 K /79 BB /91 ERA+
2005: 192 IP /115 K /65 BB /120 ERA+

Tom Glavine (41)
2007 (NYM): 200.3 IP /89 K /64 BB /96 ERA+
2006 (NYM): 198 IP /131 K /62 BB /114 ERA+
2005 (NYM): 211.3 IP /105 K /61 BB /116 ERA+

Mitigating Factor: see "Smoltz, John"

Chuck James (26)
2007: 161.3 IP /116 K /58 BB /100 ERA+
2006: 119 IP /91 K /47 BB /118 ERA+
2006 (AAA Richmond): 34 IP /25 K /6 BB /2.65 ERA
2005 (AAA Richmond): 33.2 IP /30 K /10 BB /3.48 ERA
2005 (AA Mississippi): 86 IP /104 K /18 BB /2.09 ERA

Braves bloggers think he might be traded for a better starter (Haren, Blanton). Third in NL in home runs allowed last season (32). Similar pitchers on Baseball Reference: Chacin (1st), Gorzelanny, Hamels.

Jair Jurrjens (21)
2007 (DET): 30.7 IP /13 K /11 BB /97 ERA+
2007 (AA Erie): 112.2 IP /94 K /31 BB /3.20 ERA
2006 (AA Erie): 67 IP /53 K /21 BB /3.36 ERA
2006 (A+ Lakeland): 74 IP /59 K /10 BB /2.07 ERA
2005 (A W. Michigan): 142.2 IP /108 K /36 BB /3.41 ERA

Came over from Detroit in Renteria trade. BA's highest rated Braves pitching prospect. Should compete for 5th spot in rotation.

Mike Hampton (35)
2005: 69.3 IP /27 K /18 BB /121 ERA+
2004: 172.3 IP /87 K /65 BB /101 ERA+
2003: 190 IP /110 K /78 BB /112 ERA+

Mitigating Factor: Injury. Missed 2006 and 2007 with Tommy John surgery and recurring elbow issues. If he's healthy in spring training, his contract seems to assure him a rotation spot, at least provisionally.

Jo-Jo Reyes (23)
2007: 50.7 IP /27 K /30/69 ERA+
2007 (AAA Richmond): 36 IP /39 K /12 BB /1.00 ERA
2007 (AA Mississippi): 73.1 IP /71 K /35 BB /3.56 ERA
2006 (A+ Myrtle Beach): 66 IP /58 K /36 BB /4.09 ERA
2006 (A Rome): 75 IP /84 K /25 BB /3.00 ERA
2005 (Rookie): 48.2 IP /33 K /7 BB /3.33

Jeff Bennett (27)
2007: 13 IP /14 K /3/123 ERA+
2007 (AAA Redmond): 86 IP /45 K /34 BB /3.35 ERA
2005 (AAA Nashville): 62.1 IP /56 K /25 BB /3.03 ERA
2004 (MIL): 71.3 IP /45 K /26 BB /91 ERA+

Could compete for 5th starter, could be long relief.

Cole Rohrbough (20)
2007 (A Rome): 28 IP /38 K /12 BB /1.29 ERA
2007 (Rookie): 33.1 IP /58 K /8 BB /1.08 ERA

Young and inexperienced, but good minors numbers, and projects to start in a year or two. Second rated pitching prospect in Braves' system.

Jeff Locke (20)
2007 (Rookie): 61 IP /74 K /8 BB /2.66 ERA
2006 (Rookie): 32 IP /38 K /5 BB /4.22 ERA

Third rated pitching prospect in Braves' system.

123 I heard it too. I get the impression he hopes we get the japanese pitcher, but yes he sounds determined to get a top of the rotation starter.

At this point overpay for him. It will cost us way less than giving up 2 guys and signing extenstions.

Turn Japanese Ned, turn Japanese.

126 Sing it!: "I really think so...."

123 - Just proves he would still buy into the Plaschke and Kent "garbage" about Kemp.
Too bad. It would be a impressive middle of the order of Kemp-Jones-Loney.

This would be my lineup opening day if I was GM of the Blue:

SS Furcal
C Martin
RF Kemp
CF Jones
1B Loney
2B Kent
3B LaRoche/Garciaparra
LF Ethier/Young
P
With several teams still looking for a CF, we should be able to strike a deal to send Pierre, even if we eat some salary and get a AA or AAA pitcher in return, I'll consider it a wash.

Ned must not like Kemp's spray chart.

Here is the list that I put together for Arizona, it looks better than I thought that it would when I started.

Brandon Webb

Age: 28

2005: IP: 229 BB: 59 K: 172 ERA+: 126 Team: ARZ
2006: IP: 235 BB: 50 K: 178 ERA+: 152 Team: ARZ
2007: IP: 236 1/3 BB: 72 K: 194 ERA+: 156 Team: ARZ

Contract Details: 08: $5.5M, 09: $6.5M, 10: $8.5M club option

Notes: 2006 Cy Young Award Winner, one of the very best deals as far as pitching in the entire major leagues.

Randy Johnson

Age: 44

2005: IP: 225 2/3 BB: 47 K: 211 ERA+: 112 Team: NYY
2006: IP: 205 BB: 60 K: 172 ERA+: 90 Team: NYY
2007: IP: 56 2/3 BB: 13 K: 72 ERA+: 123 Team: ARZ

Contract details: 08: $10M

Notes: Had back surgery to repair a herniated disk for the second consecutive year last year, which cut his season short and is trying to come back at age 44.

Doug Davis

Age: 32

2005: IP: 222 2/3 BB: 93 K: 208 ERA+: 111 Team: MIL
2006: IP: 203 1/3 BB: 102 K: 159 ERA+: 92 Team: MIL
2007: IP: 192 2/3 BB: 95 K: 144 ERA+: 111 Team: ARZ

Contract details: 08: $7.75M, 09: $8.75M

Micah Owings

Age: 25

2005: IP: 22 BB: 3 K: 30 ERA: 2.45 OPS: 2.000 League: A+
2006: IP: 162 BB: 51 K: 130 ERA: 3.33 OPS: .869 League: AA/AAA
2007: IP: 152 2/3 BB: 50 K: 106 ERA+: 109 OPS: 1.032 Team: ARZ

Contract details: Arb. eligible in 2010

Notes: He is better than I thought he was, also the D-Backs are thinking of using him as a part-time 1B this year.

Yusmeiro Petit

Age: 23

2005: IP: 132 1/3 BB: 24 K: 144 ERA: 3.60 League: AA/AAA
2006: IP: 97 BB: 20 K: 68 ERA: 4.27 League: AAA
2007: IP: 93 2/3 BB: 38 K: 60 ERA: 4.04 League: AAA
2007: IP: 57 BB: 18 K: 40 ERA+: 103 Team: ARZ

Contract details: Arb. eligible in 2010 or 2011

Notes: Finesse righty who has had good results in the minors, but the scouts have never really cared for due to his lack of stuff.

Edgar Gonzalez

Age: 24

2005: IP: 167 BB: 38 K: 116 ERA: 4.37 League: AAA
2006: IP: 138 BB: 27 K: 107 ERA: 3.91 League: AAA
2006: IP: 42 2/3 BB: 9 K: 28 ERA+: 112 Team: ARZ
2007: IP: 102 BB: 28 K: 62 ERA+: 94 Team: ARZ

Contract details: Arb. eligible in 2010.

Dustin Nippert

Age: 26

2005: IP: 118 1/3 BB: 42 K: 97 ERA: 2.36 League: AA
2005: IP: 14 2/3 BB: 13 K: 11 ERA+: 80 Team: ARZ
2006: IP: 140 BB: 52 K: 130 ERA: 4.89 League: AAA
2006: IP: 10 BB: 7 K: 9 ERA+: 40 Team: ARZ
2007: IP: 36 BB: 23 K: 46 ERA: 4.75 League: AAA
2007: IP: 45 1/3 BB: 16 K: 38 ERA+: 85 Team: ARZ

Max Scherzer

Age: 23

2007: IP: 90 2/3 BB: 42 K: 104 ERA: 3.28 League: A+/AA

Enrique Gonzalez

Age: 25

2005: IP: 161 1/3 BB: 52 K: 146 ERA: 3.46 League: AA
2006: IP: 60 1/3 BB: 14 K: 35 ERA: 2.24 League: AAA
2006: IP: 106 1/30 BB: 34 K: 66 ERA+: 83 Team: ARZ
2007: IP: 153 2/3 BB: 61 K: 118 ERA: 5.15 League: AAA
2007: IP: 2 BB: 1 K: 0 ERA+: 35 Team: ARZ

Esmerling Vasquez

Age: 24

2005: IP: 71 2/3 BB: 47 K: 79 ERA: 3.64 League: A
2006: IP: 117 2/3 BB: 51 K: 115 ERA: 5.89 League: A+
2007: IP: 165 1/3 BB: 60 K: 151 ERA: 2.99 League: AA

Nationals "Pitching" Report

Overall, the Nationals current rotation remains patched together with rehab cases, fallen stars, reclamation projects, and "prospects" trying to break through. There is a lot of talk they will try and get a high-innings vet -- think Livan, or Jason Jennings -- and they absolutely have payroll space to do so (indeed, they have talked about going from the current near $50M up to $70 plus with the new ballpark, but it's not at all clear where they'd spend that money). The only guys here likely to be paid more than $1 million or Patterson and Redding, both in arb, and I can't imagine it getting as high as $2M for either.

The Nats do have a respected crop of pitchers in the lower minors, including Ross Detwiler, Josh Smoker, Jake McGreary, Colt Willems, though other than Detwiler these guys won't sniff the majors for some time.

John Patterson (30 in jan) -- Awesome in 2005, injured before and since; weird offseason canadian nerve treatment, very hard to count on him for anything, but the only developed strikeout pitcher in the Nats system.
2007 31 IP, 22BB, 15K, 56 ERA+
2006 41 IP, 9BB, 42K, 96 ERA+
2005 198, 65, 185, 130 ERA+

Shawn Hill (27 in aprl) -- injuries have come and gone, but together a good run last year when he was pitching, has a Webbian sinker when it's on.
2007 97IP, 25BB, 65K, 123 ERA+
2006 36 IP, 12BB, 16K, 92 ERA+
2005 only 9 prof innings pitch -- shoulder surgery

2004 AA Harrisburg -- 88IP, 20BB, 53K, 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

Jason Bergmann (26) -- Has the two n thing going, had a dominant stretch of about 6 weeks last year, other than that a history of injuries and not quite pulling it all together.
2007 115 IP, 42BB, 86K, 95 ERA+
2006 65IP, 27BB, 54K, 64 ERA+
2005 19 pro innings

2004 (across A and AA) -- 101 IP, 54BB, 89K, 3.83 ERA, 1.47 WHIP

Matt Chico (24) -- acquired in the Livan trade in 2006; maybe the Nationals most reliable pitcher last year (and yes that's scary).
2007 167IP, 74BB, 94K, 91 ERA+

2006 (A+ -AA) 153IP, 40BB, 125K, 2.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

Tim Redding (30 in Feb.) -- also took a step forward last year; after losing most of 2005 and 2006 to injury.
2007 84IP, 38BB, 47K, 116ERA+

Middling pro career before that; in 2003 posted a standout 119 ERA+ with Houston

Tyler Clippard (23 in Feb.) -- former toppish prospect; acquired from the Yankees during the winter meetings for reliever Jonathan Albaladejo, who Bob refused to rebus even though it would have meant posting a picture of Jessica Alba.
2007 -- 27 pro innings pitched last year with the Yankees at 71 ERA+

609 Career minor league innings pitched, 173BB, 640K, 3.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

Other reasonable possibilities:

John Lannan -- jumped from A ball to the majors last year, made news hitting both Howard and Utley in his first mlb game, getting ejected, and breaking Utley's hand.
Joel Hanrahan -- still in the Nats system, had an OK stretch but grew increasingly and unreasonably wild in his final starts, culminating in this game in Denver: http://tinyurl.com/yw63sf
Mike Bacsik -- Bonds won't be playing, but maybe Bacsik will, either as a spot starter or long reliever?
Garrett Mock -- pitched OK in the AFL, the other piece received along with Chico in exchange for Livan Hernandez
Collin Balestar -- one of the Nats top prospects, may crack the rotation with a strong spring, otherwise a call up candidate, not a hard thrower, more of a control guy.

the LA Times poll with the Plaschke "article": which should be the Dodgers starting outfield?

Pierre/Jones/Ethier 7.9%
Pierre/Jones/Kemp 18.1%
Pierre/Jones/Ethier-Kemp platoon 6.1%
Ethier/Jones/Kemp 65.9%

132 Ah! The best choice keeps going down. It was at 66.8% this morning when I voted. Come on guys!

133 - That's still impressive considering that a fair number of the voters probably read the Plaschke piece

132 - the right answer has slipped a few points since last night, it was almost 70% when i went to bed at 2.

I'll take the Phillies.

Kemp+Stults/Loaiza/Kuo appears to be better net net than Bedard+Pierre in sheer run creation/prevention before you even get into service time and the additional players required to make such a trade. The only argument I might buy is that a dominant ace is essential in the postseason- which is of course contradicted by the middling starters on the 2005 White Sox, 2006 Cards and throw in the 2007 Rockies.

I suppose Ned does not need to provide his rationale for a trade he hasn't made yet. But as usual the MSM presents this as simply "keep the kids" or "go get an ace" without contemplating the nuts & bolts. At a bare minimum it must be stipulated that the team ERA was 4th in the NL with only 25 starts from Bills/Schmidt. 2008 pitching should improve with only minor tweaks which of course is the point of the group research project.

The Cardinals really have some serious problems. Three of their top four available starters were relievers prior to 2007. The good news is that Kip Wells (ERA+: 77 in 2007) left for free agency.

Adam Wainwright, 26 - Converted reliever.
2007: (StL) IP: 202 K: 136 BB: 70 ERA+: 119
2006: (StL) IP: 75 K: 72 BB: 22 ERA+: 143
2005: (StL) IP: 2 K: 0 BB: 1 ERA+: 31
2005: (AAA) IP: 182 K: 147 BB: 51 ERA: 4.40

Joel Pineiro, 29
2007: (StL/Bos) IP: 97.7 K: 60 BB: 26 ERA+: 104
2006: (Sea) IP: 165.7 K: 87 BB: 64 ERA+: 70
2005: (Sea) IP: 189 K: 107 BB: 56 ERA+: 75

Brad Thompson, 26 - Converted reliever.
2007: (StL) IP: 129.3 K: 53 BB: 40 ERA+: 93
2006: (StL) IP: 56.7 K: 32 BB: 20 ERA+: 133
2005: (StL) IP: 55 K: 29 BB: 15 ERA+: 144

Braden Looper, 33 - Converted reliever.
2007: (StL) IP: 175 K: 87 BB: 51 ERA+: 89
2006: (StL) IP: 73.3 K: 41 BB: 20 ERA+: 125
2005: (NYM) IP: 59.3 K: 27 BB: 22 ERA+: 104

Anthony Reyes, 26
2007: (StL) IP: 107.3 K: 74 BB: 43 ERA+: 73
2007: (AAA) IP: 38.7 K: 33 BB: 11 ERA: 2.79
2006: (StL) IP: 85.3 K: 72 BB: 34 ERA+: 88
2006: (AAA) IP: 84 K: 82 BB: 11 ERA: 2.57
2005: (StL) IP: 13.3 K: 12 BB: 4 ERA+: 157
2005: (AAA) IP: 128.2 K: 136 BB: 34 ERA: 3.64

Mike Maroth, 30
2007: (StL/Det) IP: 116.3 K: 51 BB: 50 ERA+: 65
2006: (Det) IP: 53.7 K: 24 BB: 16 ERA+: 109
2005: (Det) IP: 209 K: 115 BB: 51 ERA+: 90

Disabled list:
Chris Carpenter, 33 - Had Tommy John surgery in June. St. Louis hopes he'll be back sometime mid-season, but who knows?
2007: (StL) IP: 6 K: 3 BB: 1 ERA+: 59
2006: (StL) IP: 221.7 K: 184 BB: 43 ERA+: 144
2005: (StL) IP: 241.7 K: 213 BB: 51 ERA+: 149

Mark Mulder, 30 - Returned last season after rotator cuff surgery in 2006 and stunk. Had more surgery in the off season.
2007: (StL) IP: 11 K: 3 BB: 7 ERA+: 36
2006: (StL) IP: 93.3 K: 50 BB: 35 ERA+: 62
2005: (StL) IP: 205 K: 111 BB: 70 ERA+: 116

Prospects:
Jaime Garcia, 22
2007: (AA) IP: 103.1 K: 97 BB: 45 ERA: 3.75
2006: (A) IP: 155 K: 131 BB: 34 ERA: 3.37

Mitch Boggs, 24
2007: (AA) IP: 152.1 K: 117 BB: 62 ERA: 3.84
2006: (A) IP: 145 K: 126 BB: 51 ERA: 3.41

Garcia and Boggs appear to be the two best prospective starters in the Cardinals' minor league system.

I had mentioned my growing preference toward a salary cap the other day, and have been kicking around different ideas for how it would actually work in baseball. It's complicated, I think by the unique structure of baseball franchises - mainly minor league affiliates. One model that I thought would be interesting would be the NHL, since they also have minor leagues. Here is an outline of their system - http://tinyurl.com/2ywefl

There are somethings I would change. As an example, I would have the salary cap not just for the ML team, but for all levels of the franchise. No more than 65% of the total salary could be spent on the ML roster (that number is negotiable). Percentages for the minor league rosters would likely have to be determined as well.

I would add an Injured Reserve list to the disabled lists. any player on the IR would not be eligible to play at any level during the current season. Nor would his salary be counted against the team's cap.

I also like the idea of restricted and unrestricted free agency. I would modify the draft rule that we have now, awarding extra picks to teams that lose restricted free agents (at the expense of teams that sign said restricted free agents).

Incentives and signing bonuses would still be an issue, and I'm not sure how those would work. I would probably be fine with not counting incentives against the cap, but would count bonuses (perhaps at a reduced rate, say 75%).

I'd also include more pay outs to the pension fund.

What's everyone think?

I volunteer to research the Marlins.

139
I agree with Keith Law in that baseball greatly benefits from no salary cap. I think the salary cap really hurts the NBA. The NFL it is not as much of a problem because of the fact that there are no guaranteed contracts.

*In the NFL...

141 - Amen.

141 - I don't see how baseball benefits from this: http://tinyurl.com/2vdwbs

The Yankees payroll is more than the bottom five teams combined.

The NBA cap is actually a good thing, for the most part, because it is designed to keep players on their teams (a free agent's former team can offer more years and more money per than other teams, trade rules, etc). There are problems when you're counting contracts for guys that are no longer on the team (Brian Grant and the Lakers), but I think it's more a positive than a negative.

I'm mostly interested in seeing a salary floor in baseball, or having the Marlins sold.

141. I think that the non-guaranteed contracts in the NFL combine with the salary cap to be worse than the NBA. I can't even watch the NFL anymore because of just the sheer volume of roster turnover. I have almost no idea who is on what team and it feels like you can't even come up with your own ideas for what a team should do in the offseason, because you have no idea who your favorite team is going to cut. But I also hate the salary cap in the NBA given how it makes trades harder and most trades don't make sense in many way except for how they affect the cap.

Did you guys hear that Bob's hero Termel Sledge is now a Nippon Ham Fighter?

144 - The Yankees' payroll includes the following:

Carl Pavano - $10,000,000
Kei Igawa - $4,000,000
Kyle Farnsworth - $5,666,667
Jason Giambi - $23,428,571
Johnny Damon - $13,000,000

That doesn't include Clemens. Now if you can get good players for less because they're rookies making the league minimum, what's wrong with that? I don't see how a salary cap or floor helps MLB.

132 I just voted for the good choice and it still went down to 65.8%

148 - that's still a 2-1 margin over the other choices

That is why I like baseball. If your team is bad then you can go ahead and fix it. In the NBA, you have to rebuild for awhile. I believe in the NBA you should either be a title contender or rebuilding, because you are not going to win a title anytime soon if you are not in one of those situations.

There is a luxury tax cap in baseball and the Yankees choose to go over it and pay the consequences. There is no team in baseball that is not owned by someone who is rich. The Royals and Twins are owned by two of the richest men in America, they could easily spend large amounts of money. Baseball if anything, should have a minimum salary cap.

In addition, the smaller teams just have to be smarter in MLB to have success. It forces them to have to make smarter decisions, which helps the overall product on the field.

146
Did we ever find out how he got the first name of Terrmel?

Let's see... 18 games against the Padres ...

To add something on to 150 ...

The A's had to find a way to be competitive with a smaller payroll and look how that has significantly changed the way things are done in baseball.

Plus, a salary cap does not prevent dominant teams from still existing. Look at the Spurs in the NBA and the Patriots in the NFL.

Smart decision making wins in sports, not necessarily how much money you spend.

I don't like the NBAs system since it pretty much prevents from from recovering if you end up in a bad situation. How much better would the Lakers be right now if they could have traded Shaquille for prospects instead of having to eat equal value in salary.

3. regfairfield
I'll take the Pirates.
5. Vishal
i'll take san francisco.
7. scareduck
Cubbies.
16. Sam DC
Well, I guess it'd be bad form not to take the Nationals.
20. driches
Since this is just research and requires no analysis on my part, I think I can handle one.
I'll do the Braves.
31. ssjames
I will take Arizona.
37. Benaiah
I'll do the Mets
38. Andrew Shimmin
31- You have made a powerless and easily distracted enemy, my friend. But I'm a man of great cruelty, so, there's that. Beware!
I guess I'll take the Rockies.
76. bhsportsguy
I'll take the Padres
109. Sushirabbit
I'd like to do the Brewers, but I don't have time until saturday.
136. nofatmike
I'll take the Phillies.
138. DXMachina
The Cardinals
140. El Lay Dave
I volunteer to research the Marlins.

I (Jon) will take the Dodgers since no one else has. That leaves, unless I missed someone, the Astros and Reds.

151 Isn't Termel the one whose name Vin Scully said was a combination of his parents' names or dad and grandpa or something?

155 - Arg, I was about to say that I would do the Dodgers too.

156
Bob is just joking, because Vin has to mention it every time Termel plays.

155 - I will do the Padres because I have a little free time. That said, if you want different people to do each team then I can bow out. I could read a book or something...

157 - Go for it :)

159 - BH has the Padres.

161 - Arg. Double stymied. I think it is only fitting you do the Dodgers. I will do the Reds.

158 yeah, thought about that after I posted. "Dang, if even I know that, you'd think Bob would. Oh, irony, yeah....duh."

I'm sure you could poke a thousand holes in this idea, but I would like to see a system in which teams designate their payroll in advance, and then the actual player salaries for that team are determined by some prearranged metric based on the players contribution for that year.

For example, the Yankess could set up a payroll of 200 million. Then, at the end of the year, superstar x would get paid based on how much he contributed. The Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers could still land a large number of stars trying for a chunk of that pot.

It would have the double advantage of paying little to guys like Nomar while also potentially stearing some stars to small market teams. 50 million is a relatively small payroll, but a star FA might want to take his chances with the Royals rather than Yankees if he was confident he would get a sizable piece of that 50.

Like I said, holes-a-plenty, but I really like the thought of not having to pay a guy for underperforming (Nomar) or being hurt for years (Dreif).

Of course, I've thought out other aspects of this system, but that's the basic idea.

122 - i completely understand wanting to hold on to the vinyl to keep the box complete...and the thought that you may want to listen to it someday.

i also know some people don't have the slightest interest in vinyl. if you think that you might feel like parting with it in the future, let me know and we can take discussion off the board.

Do we need to submit our research now or can I do it later?

The problem with a Salary cap in baseball is where will all that $6 billion in revenue flow to if not the players? Players Union will never agree to further riching owners.

Revenue sharing seems to be the best model, with clubs on the receiving end having a "use it or lose it" spend model, where unspent dollars go back into the pot for the next year.

i volunteer for the astros then...

166 - Sooner the better, but try to do it by Saturday night

According to the LA Dailynews, the Rose Bowl has rejected USC's bid to play their next season. They seemed to have left the window open a bit, but UCLA appears to be opposed to the idea so it will probably not happen.

www.dailynews.com/sports/ci_7656628

Someone tell Ned how GREAT the lineup looks with Kemp, Jones, Ethier and the infield...and how in 2009 Hu and Abreu fit in neatly. By then I'd think one or two of the Minatour, McDonald, Elbert step up.
Go with Stulton in April, May on those rare days early in the season where you actually need a 5th starter. Then the $17mil man might be ready.

Did I say to extend Brad Penny?

Birthday shared with Guitar Hero and designated box mover Joel Zumaya. Age 41.

Great week of reading guys.

170
*play there...

What a surprise that UCLA does not want USC to play there.

167 - you do like they did in the NHL, 65% (or some such number) of the "hockey-related revenue" goes towards salaries. Teams caught cooking the books are fined the cooked amount plus a million for the first time, second time they're fined $5m and double the cooked amount. You also make sure that a certain percentage goes to the pension fund.

I am open to the "use it or lose it" revenue sharing idea, combine that with a mandatory minimum salary structure, and I'd probably be pretty happy. At present, I'm just not happy with what the Marlins (and to a lesser extent the Twins) are doing.

173 "I'm sure you could poke a thousand holes in this idea, but I would like to see a system in which teams designate their payroll in advance, and then the actual player salaries for that team are determined by some prearranged metric based on the players contribution for that year."

The biggest problem with that would be agreeing on a prearranged metric. I mean, look at the situation we've got as it is -- sabermetricians, old-school front office types, and sportswriters are constantly bickering back and forth about which stats are valuable, or whether stats are valuable at all. And that's with nothing at stake. Can you imagine the levels such bickering would rise to if there were literally billions of dollars on the line?

That, and you'd raise the specter of players playing for their paycheck instead of for their team. Every once in a while a player is accused of doing this, but can you imagine the kinds of things that would happen if their salary depended on it? Do you really want players running through every stop sign so they can increase their runs scored total, or swinging from the heels at every pitch in hopes of hitting more home runs? Not only that, but every clubhouse would be guaranteed to degenerate into a poisonous atmosphere of infighting over playing time.

Then there's the question of fairness to the players. There's no way the union would ever allow such a system to come about. Let's take Darren Dreifort. He's a bogeyman around here, but he's also a human being. Let's say he buys a house for his family. How's he going to pay his mortgage if he receives zero income for three years in a row?

That referred to 164 , obviously.

174 Do we really view Dreifort as the bogeyman? He always seemed like a decent guy who was made out of glass and given an absurd contract.

The use it or lose it revenue sharing model is pretty silly, IMO. The best model for your poorer franchises to follow is to save their money, build up their farm system, and when they finally have the building blocks to potentially win, then put money into free agent salaries and such. Like the way Cleveland has been run over the last 15 years. They built up a dynasty with Belle, Thome, etc., went to a few World Series, then when that collapsed they endured a few rebuilding years where their MLB team sucked, and now they're back to looking like a mini-dynasty again.

It's kind of stupid to force teams to spend money on MLB salary when it's unnecessary and doesn't meet the needs of the franchise. It's the sort of thing that I imagine led to the Pierre signing last year -- it's only speculation, but I suspect that Colletti simply found himself with a large portion of his budget unspent thanks to Drew, and couldn't find anything legitimate to spend it on -- leading him to throw $45 million at a Quadruple-A outfielder.

173 - so if you take 65% of $6 billion, you get $3.9 billion, divided by 30 teams = $130 million cap. That's a good starting point for a soft cap, with incremental spending requiring a $1 (or $2) penalty for every dollar over that.

I would think the Union would be for this with the "use it or lose it" clause, as players would get that money, not owners.

Re: 176

Dreifort did strike me as perfectly well-meaning. It's not his fault Malone gave him that dreadful contract.

WWSH

Chicago's 2007 rotation -- now with 3-year stats history and the sixth man!

Ted Lilly (Age 31, 34 G, 3.83 ERA, 15-8, 207.0 IP, 28 HR, 55 BB/174 K, 122 ERA+)
2005 TOR 126.1 IP, 58 BB, 96 K, 80 ERA+
2006 TOR 181.2 IP, 80 BB, 160 K, 106 ERA+
2007 CHC 207 IP, 55 BB, 174 K, 122 ERA+

Lilly was one of last offseason's best free agent values, Lilly stayed healthy and led the Cubs' rotation in ERA. He's got a healthy strikeout rate (7.53 K/9) about in line with his career norms. Also led the staff in home runs, something to watch. His big problem going forward will be age, of course, but his transition to the NL Central from the AL East has been smooth, as expected.

Carlos Zambrano (Age 26, 34 G, 3.95 ERA, 18-13, 216.1 IP, 23 HR, 101 BB/177 K, 118 ERA+)
2005 CHC 223.1 IP, 86 BB, 202 K, 135 ERA+
2006 CHC 214 IP, 115 BB, 210 K, 136 ERA+
2007 CHC 216.1 IP, 101 BB, 177 K, 118 ERA+

While Mark Prior and Kerry Wood got all the acclaim in 2003, Big Z was quietly getting it done for the Cubs, too, and until this year has functioned as an ace-without-the-title for Chicago. He's emotional, and in-season contract talks this year seemed to undo him for a time after he inked his first big deal. Though he has a reputation as an extreme groundball pitcher, a virtual necessity at the Wrigley bandbox, it's a trait he's steadily losing (1.39 G/F in 2007). Only 26 this year, Zambrano still has some room to improve, though questions about overuse early in his career cloud his future.

Jason Marquis (Age 28, 34 G, 4.60 ERA, 12-9, 191.1 IP, 22 HR, 76 BB/109 K, 101 ERA+)
2005 STL 207 IP, 69 BB, 100 K, 102 ERA+
2006 STL 194.1 IP, 75 BB, 96 K, 74 ERA+
2007 CHC 191.1 IP, 76 BB, 109 K, 101 ERA+

What do you see when you look in the mirror in the morning? If you're Jason Marquis, you see a nearly league-average pitcher; as the 2007 Baseball Prospectus put it, "it's as if starting 32-plus games three years in a row obligates baseball to make you rich, regardless of your ability to prevent runs." The Cubs were talking him up as a hidden gem in the first half, as he posted a neat 3.73 ERA before the break, but he all but completely fell apart after (5.73 ERA). As mediocre as this season was for him, it represented a substantial step up from his abysmal 2006 (74 ERA+) when he was left off the Cardinals' postseason roster. His peripherals (5.12 K/9, 1.43 K/BB) are near the bottom end of effectiveness, and his 2006 could easily be a harbinger of worse to come.

Rich Hill (Age 27, 32 G, 3.92 ERA, 11-8, 195 IP, 27 HR, 63 BB/183 K, 119 ERA+)
2005 AA WTN 57.2 IP, 21 BB, 90 K, 3.28 ERA
2005 AAA IWA 65 IP, 14 BB, 92 K, 3.60 ERA
2005 CHC 23.2 IP, 17 BB, 21 K, 48 ERA+
2006 IWA 100 IP, 21 BB, 135 K, 1.80 ERA
2006 CHC 99.1 IP, 39 BB, 90 K, 111 ERA+
2007 CHC 195 IP, 63 BB, 183 K, 119 ERA+

The new kid on the Addison block, Hill throws an 11-5 curve that elicits comparisons to Barry Zito in his prime when it's working well. Hill can dial up the heat some, too (IIRC he's got a 93-94 MPH fastball), and though that combination tends to elicit a lot of flyballs, his ERA is well above league average. 2007 was his first full season in the majors; entering his prime, he'll be looking to improve on a set of very impressive numbers that include rotation-leading peripherals of 8.45 K/9 and 2.45 K/BB.

Sean Marshall (Age 24, 21 G, 3.92 ERA, 7-8, 103.1 IP, 13 HR, 35 BB/67 K)
2005 A+ DAY 69 IP, 26 BB, 61 K, 2.74 ERA
2005 AA WTN 25 IP, 5 BB, 24 K, 2.52 ERA
2006 AAA IWA 22 IP, 14 BB, 21 K, 3.27 ERA
2007 AAA IWA 24.2 IP, 8 BB, 15 K, 1.82 ERA
2007 CHC 103.1 IP, 35 BB, 67 K

A surprise entrant to the Cubs rotation, Marshall hadn't pitched above AA when the team called him up in 2006. He improved substantially in 2007, despite a second half in which his ERA ballooned by nearly a whole run (3.48 in the first half, 4.35 in the second). One reason for that was returning too early from an oblique strain in 2006 that led him to deliver seven dingers in August. There's room for improvement, as his peripherals aren't especially impressive (5.84 K/9, 1.91 K/BB), a fact he makes up for by keeping the ball on the ground (1.51 G/F).

Mark Prior (did not pitch at any level in 2007)
2005 CHC 166.2 IP, 59 BB, 188 K, 120 ERA+
2006 CHC 43.2 IP, 28 BB, 38 K, 64 ERA+

"The saddest words of song or pen," etc. There's now plenty of reason to believe that the Cubs will release Prior without a contract this year, which is how other clubs are betting; word is, nobody wants to make a deal for him when he'll be available for free in a few weeks. While he has a big upside, it's been missing for the last two years. His medical problems, a shoulder injury similar to that befalling Kerry Wood, may spell a permanent end to his career.

180 I would like the Dodgers to take a chance on Prior, assuming he becomes a free agent. It's highly unlikely that his career is actually over. There's nothing to lose except money (and not very much of that).

I volunteer to research the Chicago Bliss of the Lingerie Football League (LFL).

A detailed report will be forthcoming shortly.

177 - My thinking with the "use it or lose it" is to prevent the owner from pocketing that money. So extending the spend period would make sense so they could spend wisely. The goal would be to make owners spend on players (so Union would agree) and prevent an owner from gutting his MLB team and pocketing the millions in revenue sharing given to his team.

176 I certainly don't view him that way. The contract was absurd. He also did have filthy stuff, but he was made of glass, as you said. Not his fault. Just should be a reminder to teams to be wary of huge long term contracts to any pitcher, especially one with injury history.

178 - that sounds about right, only the Yankees and Red Sox would be over a $130m cap. I'd also have a floor, maybe somewhere around $70m (which is just a little over half of the cap).

183 - agreed, say three years to "use it or lose it"?

We should also remember that Dreifort's contract was actually insured for its entire term, IIRC. So it wasn't a total loss financially. My impression is that pitchers' insurance will go no farther than three years, now, because of how Dreifort's contract turend out.

WWSH

I may be overreacting, but if Pierre is starting in Left Field next year:

I will not be buying a mini-plan.

UCLA vs. USC in the women's soccer semifinal coming up in about 40 minutes.

The winner will face Florida State.

Trainwreck and I care!

Looks like the Padres' "arbitration for everyone" plan has finally backfired and now theyre stuck with Michael Barrett.

186 So in other words, Dreifort's injury was almost no-harm, no-foul. He got the money, but the Dodgers weren't financially impacted to the degree where they could use it as an excuse for their inability to find another pitcher.

I always thought Dreifort rage was misplaced. It was just one of those things. Nobody acted in bad faith. I saw Dreifort pitch at various points in his career and when he was healthy, he was a filthy pitcher. He could have been a solid #2 or better. Giving him the big contract wasn't folly so much as bad luck IMO.

189

Awesome

Sooooo... will someone be able to post what was said on BP, re: 94 ?

Or perhaps in a future post.

Muchas gracias.

191 Not to pull out a Simpsons quote or anything, but all I could think of is Nelson's "HAH. HAH."

Re: 190

My impression, and I'm working off of memory, is that the insurance didn't cover the entire contract, but it did cover a big chunk--something like two-thirds, perhaps more. So yes, the financial impact was far less severe than what one would think otherwise (the contract was, what, 5 ys/55 mil?). Furthermore, my impression was that the salary restrictions from the late Malone and Evans eras were all imposed by FOX, anyhow.

WWSH

Having Barrett for another year isn't the end of the world; I know he had an off year, but he used to be one of the better hitting pitchers in the league.

WWSH

176 "You know how you can tell who the arch-villain's going to be? He's the exact opposite of the hero, and most time's they're friends, like you and me. I should've known way back when. You know why, David? Because of the kids. They called me Mr. Glass."

I feel no pity when the Pads suck...but I do get sad when the Giants are terrible......I would like them to be competitiv for rivalry sake...

Michael Barrett
2004 OPS+: 108
2005 OPS+: 110
2006 OPS+: 121
2007 OPS+: 68

198 Shame the Pads are stuck with that guy when they have a capable backup in case he doesn't actually bounce back.

Wait a second.

RE: 198

I guess Barret won't be asking for pay raises via arbitration.

WWSH

I just voted for the Ethier/Jones/Kemp outfield - still leading at 65.7% - IMHO an astonishing repudiation of the Plasckhe world-view by LAT readers.

Totally unrelated and Jon can tell me not to comment in this manner in the future, but I cannot stop seething over the photos of the Omaha mall shooter posted everywhere.

I love the Constitution and the first amendment in particular, but giving a random killer a national forum to claim he's a victim can encourage others to act in a similar manner and publishing it is a CHOICE that seems to be accepted and expected by the masses.

Do people really want to consume this information enough to make media outlets put this garbage out in bulk and promote it as the top story?

Isn't there a responsible adult in charge of editing and publishing?

188
lol I just came on to see if anyone else was watching the game.

With our current pitchers...Bills, Penny, Lowe, Schmidt(Health?), Loazia (Health?), Kuo (Health?) Hendy( Tendered on the 12th?),would not appear that we have a decent starting LHP? We did not take a chance on Wolf, it would not surprise me, if Ned does go after Bedard, as we do not have a LHP. Giving up any combo of Kemp, Broxton/Kershaw, LaRoche, as previously reported is way too much. Do like the ida that the ChiSox is liking Pierre!

183 - I would say, ok, but not strictly on payroll; rather account also for draft picks, etc.

And also, if an owner announced he wanted to finance a stadium without taxpayer dollars, I don't see why he shouldn't use revenue sharing money for that.

203

At least Notre Dame lost already.
UCLA plays Oregon in the women's volleyball round of 16 at Stanford.

The Cardinal will face Cal Poly.

198
Reminds me of a certain centerfielder.

2004 OPS+: 112
2005 OPS+: 136
2006 OPS+: 126
2007 OPS+: 88

206
I watched a couple volleyball games this year and we are definitely not as good as we were last year.

202
We'll give mall-shooters all the publicity they want, but we won't show streakers on baseball fields.

209
I guess that should read "We won't show streakers on baseball fields, but we'll give mall-shooters all the publicity they want."

209
And both things still happen regardless of the publicity.

Darn it, I had the Phillies report all written up, but I hit some weird key and now it's all erased. I'll have to start over.

202 - I've got to say that the Virginia Tech shooter was a much more blatant case of this. In both cases, the shooter took his own life, but the Tech shooter sent in a whole video packet to NBC.

From my observations, that's the nature of news - it's still a business. At its very heart, there is some extreme sensationalism beyond this killer. Some would claim that it's important to make sure to prevent a similar case, and the guy committing suicide without slaying the others in the mall would have been tragic enough. But on the other hand, news should not obsess over the sensational as it does, yet that is what sells. That is what the people apparently are willing to buy, or at least what newspaper writers think people will buy.

Forgive me if this is a bit callous, but perhaps this is the same sensation we see across the business, including the Sports pages. People love juicy gossip in entertainment news, just like they like hearing crazy trade rumors.

Nonetheless, it's sobering to think about this tragedy in the first place. Helps put in perspective our relatively trivial frustration with who's playing the outfield when we consider the kid who's mom died buying him a Christmas present.

187- You're under-reacting. Pierre in LF is my breaking point. People think I'm kidding, but the day I see Pierre starting in left, in a regular season game, I get me a new team. One with dignity.

201. MikeB
I just voted for the Ethier/Jones/Kemp outfield - still leading at 65.7% - IMHO an astonishing repudiation of the Plasckhe world-view by LAT readers.

Well, yes and no. After all, the poll is on the internet, where laptop geeks meet to VORP. If this poll were being conducted by 1-sentence-per-paragraph letters to the editor, you'd be on to something.

Of course, even that would require semi-literacy. And stamps.

187 Doesn't look like overreacting to me. I used to have season tickets right above the Dodgers bench. I haven't given McCourt a dime since he fired DePo. I won't be either until I am convinced our team is not being run by morons.

215 - you can't submit letters to the editor via latimes.com?

213 Didn't Glen Frey had a song about the very nature of our news media??

218 = Maybe, but I couldn't figure out which one it was from his Wikipedia entry.

Awwwwwww!!

That was an easy goal. I could have scored it.

219 My mistake it was Don Henely.."Dirty Laundry"

Adams is coming out for the rest of the first half. She looks really tough in midfield for UCLA.

212- Did you try right clicking, and then clicking 'Undo' ?

The USC goalie is like a wall.

Goooooooooaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaallll!!!!!!!!!!

And I sat through Grabowski! I didn't gripe about Burnitz. I rooted for Kal Daniels! Mitch Webster I hated, but I stuck it out. Corey Snyder, I dealt with. But I won't do it for Pierre. I choose not to suffer in that way. If Ned Colletti wants to be a sadist in his off hours, fine, but he needs to leave that at home. Or whatever rent-a-dungeon he prefers.

It still mind boggles the mind on why he got him in the first place, I'll never understand it. Trust the youth Ned!! dammit

Philadelphia Phillies:

Adam Eaton (30)
2007: 161.7 IP/97 K/71 BB/73 ERA+
2006: 65 IP/43 K/24 BB/90 ERA+
2005: 128.7 IP/100 K/44 BB/90 ERA+

What did the Rangers get for Chris Young the taller and Adrian Gonzalez? A punchline, which the Phillies paid 24 million dollars for last year. I guess the Phillies like good jokes.

Cole Hamels (24)
2007: 183.3 IP/177 K/43 BB/136 ERA+
2006: 132.3 IP/145 K/48 BB/115 ERA+
2006:(AAA) 23 IP/36 K/1 BB/0.39 ERA
2006:(A+) 20 IP/29 K/9 BB/1.80 ERA
2006:(A) 6 IP/3 K/2 BB/1.50 ERA
2005:(AA) 19 IP/19 K/12 BB/1.37 ERA
2005:(A+) 16 IP/18 K/7 BB/2.25

Kyle Kendrick (23)
2007: 121 IP/49 K/25 BB/119 ERA+
2007:(AA) 81.3 IP/50 K/18 BB/3.21 ERA
2006:(A+) 130 IP/79 K/37 BB/3.53 ERA
2006:(A) 46 IP/54 K/15 BB/2.15 ERA
2005:(A+) 4 IP/1 K/2 BB/0.00 ERA
2005:(A) 22.7 IP/11 K/10 BB/9.13 ERA
2005:(A-) 91.3 IP/70 K/22 BB/3.74 ERA

Jon Lieber (38)
2007: 78 IP/54 K/22 BB/98 ERA+
2006: 168 IP/100 K/24 BB/95 ERA+
2005: 213.3 IP/149/41 BB/105 ERA+

The Phillies are looking to get rid of him for a small bargain.

J.D. Durbin (26)
2007: 65.3/40 K/37 BB/76 ERA+
2007:(AAA) 59.3 IP/44 K/21 BB/4.55 ERA
2006:(AAA) 89 IP/81 K/50 BB/2.33 ERA
2005:(AAA) 104 IP/90 K/51 BB/4.33 ERA

Brett Myers (27)
2007: 68.7 IP/83 K/27 BB/107 ERA+
2006: 198 IP/189 K/63 BB/120 ERA+
2005: 215.3 IP/208 K/68 BB/118 ERA+

Relegated to the closer role after his first three starts (for reasons unknown), miss most of the season due to a shoulder injury, return in time to record a few saves for the Phillies down the stretch. With Brad Lidge now in the bullpen, it is assumed that Myers will return to the rotation. He'd be a nice guy to acquire if things go south mid-way through the season for the Phillies, even if he's a malcontent.

Ryan Madson (27)
2007: 56 IP/43 K/23 BB/151 ERA+
2006: 134.3 IP/99 K/50 BB/82 ERA+
2005: 87 IP/79 K/25 BB/106 ERA+

Injured part of last year, could be used as a starter if need be.

Francisco Rosario (27)
2007: 26.3 IP/25 K/13 BB/84 ERA+
2007:(A+) 13.3 IP/16 K/5 BB/4.05 ERA
2006: 23 IP/21 K/16 BB/69 ERA+
2006:(AAA) 42 IP/50 K/13 BB/2.79 ERA
2005:(AAA) 116.3 IP/80 K/42 BB/3.95 ERA

Injured much of last season.

Zach Segovia (25)
2007: 5 IP/2 K/1 BB/51 ERA+
2007:(AAA) 77.3 IP/22 K/28 BB/6.05 ERA
2007:(AA) 57.7 IP/30 K/22 BB/4.84 ERA
2006:(AA) 107 IP/75 K/24 BB/3.11 ERA
2006:(A+) 49 IP/41 K/12 BB/2.20 ERA
2005:(A+) 144.7 IP/83 K/48 BB/5.54 ERA

J.A. Happ (25)
2007: 4 IP/5 K/2 BB/41 ERA+
2007:(AAA) 118.3/117 K/62 BB/5.02 ERA
2006:(AAA) 6 IP/4 K/1 BB/1.50 ERA
2006:(AA) 75 IP/81 K/29 BB/2.64 ERA+
2006:(A+) 80 IP/77 K/19 BB/2.81 ERA
2005:(AA) 6 IP/8 K/2 BB/1.50 ERA
2005:(A) 72.3 IP/70 K/26 BB/2.36 ERA

I thought this blog was called, "DODGER THOUGHTS" This article"ARMS & THE YOUNG", must have been placed in here mistakely. *It's about the GNATS.

228 "What did the Rangers get for Chris Young the taller and Adrian Gonzalez? A punchline"

That's not completely true though, the Rangers did get Otsuka.

Will there be a Pirates remix coming? Salas is older, but looks like he might be useful. Roberts is probably a year or more away.

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/024167.php

Good one from Marc Normandin at BP...

While losing Juan Pierre on a real baseball team is cause for a three-day feast with a carnival-like atmosphere, losing him on your fantasy team can be somewhat depressing, because of his stolen base numbers.

has there been any news that NedCo is shopping Pierre, I haven't heard anything but hopefully he is...

233

http://tinyurl.com/2ec7e4

If Ned is so hell-bent on getting another SP and he is not willing to exceed $33M over 3 years for Kuroda then he should trade Pierre and Loaiza to Texas for Vincente Padilla.

Padilla has three years left on his contract ($35M). He did not do so well last year and Texas has soured on him somewhat. A change to the NL and DS might help revive him.a

Lousy Trojans.

229 But then it relates the idea of the pitching vs. hitting trade to the current idea floating around that Matt Kemp might be traded for pitching.

And it's hard to talk about the Dodgers without mentioning the Giants - do you think Red Sox blogs never talk about the Yankees, and vice-versa? ;)

Olsen is very good.

She almost makes me forget Hope Solo. Almost.

234

Get 'ER done then... If he dumps Pierre (I'm sure he'll have to still cover some of his salary but still) & signs Kuroda you can't help BUT give him credit. Get 'er done Ned!!

238
So will dumpdorrell.com now switch to dumpellis.com?

Well right now I am expecting Walker to be named head coach.

So I think it will be dumpguerrero.com

I hope Ned continues his strategy of short term/hi-per-annum contracts with Kuroda, giving him a 3-year deal with higher per annum than Seattle. I have to admit Bedard's pitching stats are trending incredibly well, and a trade for Kemp would be tempting (but "jaw-dropping?").

ERA+

2002 32
2004 100
2005 108
2006 121
2007 146

That free kick was awful.

Sigh. I wanted an Emerald Bowl matchup.

How did I miss that Giuseppe Norrito was rule five drafted away from us? Juan Apodaca, too. Is Russ going to have to catch 51's games during the day, then fly down to catch the Dodger games at night?

USC deserved that win. The Trojans outplayed UCLA in the second half and their keeper was really good.

Rafael Furcal has signed on to play in the Dominican Winter League for the Aguilas according to ESPN Deportes.

I'm not to sure about this considering his ankle, but apparently Furcal feels healthy enough to play. If Furcal plays as good as in 2006 and Ned trades Pierre then the Dodgers are going to be really good next year.

The Florida Marlins report should be have been researched and presented by a prospect-maven who would have paying close attention to their recent minor-league performances, instead of a casual observer such as I.

The elder statesman is Sergio Mitre whose 2008 year will be his age-27 season. The most MLB IP for this group is Scott Olsen's whopping 377 2/3 (Dodger fans: Billingsley has 237). With the exceptions of the just-acquired Andrew Miller and prospect Chris Volstad, these pitchers all made at least four starts for the Marlins last season. Unless they have some reliever to starter conversion ideas planned, the rest of the arms on their 40-man roster appear to be relievers, or not yet ready for MLB types. Other than Volstad (assuming he might be on a faster track), the other consensus top Marlin pitching prospects are also likely at least a year away from consideration, with the possible exception of Gaby Hernandez, who spent all of 2007 in AA, so he could conceivably pitch AAA and MLB in 2008.

Besides the obvious youth, several of these pitchers have lost significant time to recent injuries (e.g. Vanden Hurk, Johnson, Nolasco, Sanchez), Sanchez has the (still pending?) injury-related grievance with Florida management, and Olsen has his, um, behavioral issues.

The ex-Marlins that made 2007 starts for them are D-Train (35 starts), B-H Kim (19), and Wes Obermeuller (7).

Name / 2008 Season Age
Year / Level / Team / IP / BB / K / ERA+ (MLB) or ERA (MiLB)

Scott Olsen / 24
2007 / MLB / FLA / 176.7 / 85 / 133 / 74
2006 / MLB / FLA / 180.7 / 75 / 166 / 107
2005 / MLB / FLA / 20.3 / 10 / 21 / 100
2005 / AA / Carolina / 80.3 / 27 / 94 / 3.92

Sergio Mitre / 27
2007 / MLB / FLA / 149 / 41 / 80 / 93
2006 / MLB / FLA / 41 / 20 / 31 / 76
2005 / MLB / CHC / 60.3 / 23 / 37 / 82
2005 / AAA / Iowa / 70.7 / 22 / 55 / 4.33

Rick Vanden Hurk / 23
2007 / MLB / FLA / 81.7 / 48 / 82 / 63
2007 / AAA / Albuquerque / 12 / 4 / 14 / 2.25
2007 / AAA / Carolina / 53.7 / 21 / 61 / 3.52
2006 / A+ / Jupiter / 10 / 6 / 15 / 2.7
2006 / Rk / GCL / 15 / 8 / 26 / 1.2
2005 / A+ / Jupiter / 6.7 / 0 / 6 / 4.05
2005 / A / Greensboro / 22 / 11 / 26 / 2.45

Andrew Miller / 23
2007 / MLB / DET / 64 / 39 / 56 / 81
2007 / AAA / Toledo / 6 / 5 / 9 / 9
2007 / AA / Erie / 30.7 / 5 / 24 / 0.59
2007 / A+ / Lakeland / 41.3 / 15 / 28 / 3.48
2006 / MLB / DET / 10.3 / 10 / 6 / 75
2006 / A+ / Lakeland / 5 / 1 / 9 / 0
2006 / NCAA
2005 / NCAA

Anibal Sanchez / 24
2007 / MLB / FLA / 30 / 19 / 14 / 90
2006 / MLB / FLA / 114.3 / 46 / 72 / 152
2006 / AA / Carolina / 86 / 27 / 92 / 3.14
2005 / AA / Portland / 57.3 / 16 / 63 / 3.45
2005 / A+ / Wilmington / 78.7 / 24 / 95 / 2.4

Ricky Nolasco / 25
2007 / MLB / FLA / 21.3 / 9 / 11 / 78
2007 / AAA / Albuquerque / 15.3 / 4 / 15 / 14.09
2007 / AA / Carolina / 3 / 1 / 2 / 6
2007 / A+ / Jupiter / 12 / 1 / 9 / 0.75
2007 / Rk / GCL / 3.3 / 0 / 8 / 2.7
2006 / MLB / FLA / 140 / 41 / 99 / 89
2005 / AA / W. Tenn. / 161.7 / 46 / 173 / 2.89

Josh Johnson / 24
2007 / MLB / FLA / 15.7 / 12 / 14 / 58
2007 / Carolina / AA / 10.3 / 5 / 9 / 1.74
2007 / Jupiter / A+ / 11.3 / 0 / 13 / 0.79
2006 / MLB / FLA / 157 / 68 / 133 / 139
2005 / MLB / FLA / 12.3 / 10 / 10 / 109
2005 / Carolina / AA / 139.7 / 50 / 113 / 3.87

Daniel Barone / 25
2007 / MLB / FLA / 41 / 19 / 18 / 75
2007 / AAA / Albuquerque / 61.7 / 14 / 31 / 4.09
2007 / AA / Carolina / 74.7 / 18 / 60 / 3.86
2006 / AA / Carolina / 20 / 6 / 13 / 1.8
2006 / A+ / Jupiter / 73 / 18 / 57 / 4.32
2006 / A / Greensboro / 49 / 9 / 60 / 2.39
2005 / A / Greensboro / 39.3 / 10 / 29 / 4.12
2005 / A- / Jamestown / 19.2 / 4 / 17 / 0.46

Chris Seddon / 24
2007 / MLB / FLA / 17.3 / 5 / 10 / 49
2007 / AA / Carolina / 68.7 / 25 / 58 / 4.33
2007 / AA / Montgomery / 71 / 23 / 40 / 4.94
2006 / AAA / Durham / 154 / 46 / 108 / 4.73
2005 / AAA / Durham / 95.7 / 43 / 70 / 5.46
2005 / AA / Montgomery / 52.3 / 20 / 46 / 4.82

Chris Volstad / 21
2007 / AA / Carolina / 42.7 / 10 / 25 / 3.16
2007 / A+ / Jupiter / 126 / 37 / 93 / 4.5
2006 / A / Greensboro / 152 / 36 / 99 / 3.08
2005 / A- / Jamestown / 38 / 11 / 29 / 2.13
2005 / Rk / GCL / 27 / 4 / 26 / 2.33

There is someone on Bruins Nation who is calling for Ellis's firing already.

Sigh. That site is always very good at bringing out bottom feeders.

245 I don't know, man. He's resilient, but at some point you have to start to worry about a young catcher logging too many innings.

And is there even a rule that would allow Russ to be on the MLB and AAA roster at the same time?

245, 250 The more I think about this, the less sense this makes. This isn't right. This isn't right at all!

63 Cool, that would be fun.... Here come the Dodger fans! I used to trade 45s and CD singles with a guy named Joris in Holland. Never met him though.

It happened in between Jones posts, and I just missed it. Huh. Anyway:

https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/879595.html

Yeah, I wasn't serious about Martin catching for two different teams. He could totally do it; he's a golden g-d. But it's against the rules, which, stupidly, did not anticipate His arrival.

215
I wrote: "I just voted for the Ethier / Jones/ Kemp outfield - still leading at 65.7% - IMHO an astonishing repudiation of the Plasckhe world-view by LAT readers."

You responded: "Well, yes and no. After all, the poll is on the internet, where laptop geeks meet to VORP. If this poll were being conducted by 1-sentence-per-paragraph letters to the editor, you'd be on to something.

Of course, even that would require semi-literacy. And stamps."

My rebuttal: I am 55 years old, I work for a large newspaper, and I love to read the daily paper -- but I know "the times are a changing."

You are discounting the importance that newspapers are now placing on their online content & audience. They care very much about the laptop geeks - and older print loving dinosaurs like myself who are migrating to the net by the thousands.

Note: The publisher of the LA Times is now blogging with his employees. TJ Simers is acknowledging and reacting in his columns to bloggers (e.g. dumpdorrell). Everyone working in the newsroom, in ad sales, in circulation, in the press room - knows the net is our enemy - and our future.

In conclusion, vote early & vote often for the Kemp / Jones / Ethier ticket!

In case you guys missed this via Rotoworld.com

Andre Ethier has emerged as a top target of the Rangers in their pursuit of outfield help.

The Dodgers have expressed interest in Joaquin Benoit in the past and could have a fit there, though they'd probably want more. The Rays are also believed to be interested in Ethier.

Source: Rangers.mlb.com

15 The trashcan landed on Plaschke's foot?

249
If Howland does not win a championship this year, I expect idiots to come out and start really criticizing him.

255

Benoit is decent but just a reliever. I don't really see a match.

The Dodgers originally had control of Roberto Clemente.

The Dodgers had the Vladman in their Dominican Training camp.

The Dodgers have Kemp, a true five tool, five star player.

15 78 You are probably correct. Kemp may have upset the eighty plus Lasorda . Anything that Lasorda opines is repeated by his personal reporter.

12 I hope you are right. You have been on the mark many times so far.

74 A piece of cake for Mr. Smith.

123 What a softball interview. No followup conversation after. Yuk!

128 Great lineup! Would you consider switching #7 and #8? Obviously, that's what I would prefer.

187 I bought my tickets today. However, if Kemp is traded, I will probably sell most of them.

Regarding pitching, we need a reliable fourth starter, who may be in house. We also need another reliable arm in the bullpen, who may also be in house. Given the value of all of the young in house players, it would seem that the best move for the future should be to spend a little extra for a player like Kuroda now and give the youngsters that extra skosh of room in Las Vegas that they would benefit from.

257
Everybody knows that the reason why UCLA hasn't won a championship in basketball under Howland is because he calls timeouts at weird times of the game.

Dear Mr. Colletti,

You do NOT have organizational outfield depth.

You DO have organizational pitching depth.

Please do not trade outfielders for pitching. Not for inherently fungible middle relievers.

I purposely wrote this like Plaschke.

It might get through to you that way.

Yours truly,
E. L. Dave

260
And because of the zone defense.

260 I hope that Ben is not consulting with Dan's consultants on any of this.

260 I hope that Ben is not consulting with Dan's consultants on any of this.

Sorry for the double click.

This morning when I mentioned the LAT outfield poll, only 2000+ people had voted, but it was still a revelation to me. I was so far behind the "times" that I thought I was in a somewhat select group of insiders with a superior knowledge of sophisticated stats who felt JP wasn't good for the D's.
Obviously this isn't true, and with 6000+ fans speaking out, 65% would like an outfield of Ethier/Jones/Kemp. The masses know the truth. Hopefully even the barricaded nobles will soon accept reality.
And by the way, I like the guy, and think he would be good for a small market team, if we hadn't jacked his price out of reach.

encore!

248

I really like Sergio Mitre but to my surprise his #'s don't look all that good I haven't seen enough of him to really get a full scope of him but the times I've seen him pitch I was really impressed. Your probably wondering why I'm even talking about him but sense you mentioned him it kind of opened my eyes a little bit. He's got good potential from what I've seen of him & i'm very surprised he doesn't have better #"s. I'm gonna try & find a scouting report of him to see what's do in.

228 - If you wouldn't mind, just copy/paste this over the now-FA Lieber:

Jamie Moyer (44)
2007: PHL 199.3 IP / 133 K / 66 BB / 92 ERA+
2006: PHL/SEA 211.3 IP/ 108 K/ 51 BB/ 104 ERA+
2005: SEA 200.0 IP/ 102 K/ 52 BB / 98 ERA+

The Ancient Mariner certainly enjoyed turning 40 (check out that season Jon!) and has hardly slowed down since. While hardly a guarantee in '08, the Julio Franco of soft-tossing lefties goes into 2008 as the expected #3 starter, between Myers and Kendrick, and as his NLDS outing vs the Rockies showed, he just may be able to pull enough rabbits out of his hat to skate through another season.

all of you calling to over spend for Kuroda, i dont wanna hear yall screaming it as a bad move next year if it happens and he is a bust.

262
I forgot about that one! It's so obvious!

We need a player as a scapegoat. I assume it will be Josh Shipp.

214 oh whatever. you've already got one foot in the diamondbacks camp anyway; you're just looking for a reason to defect. :P

270

If our starting outfield is Ethier-Jones-Kemp with Laroche at 3b, it won't matter if he is only a 5th starter.

270 Just remember that the overspend advice was usually coupled with keeping the term of the contract short, e.g., 3 years or less.

270
Hiroki Kuroda, RHP, Hiroshima Carp
Height: 6'1" Weight: 187 Bats: Right Throws: Right Age: 32

"He's not Daisuke Matsuzaka, but Kuroda a very strong power pitcher with a low to mid-90s fastball and a wicked forkball. In addition, he features a plus shuuto, something like a screwball, as well as an effective change. Even if he only pans out as a third or fourth starter in the majors, he will give you innings, work deep into games, and he should be fairly consistent start to start."
Baseball Prospectus

i did the giants rotation this morning actually, but was leery about posting on DT from work:

B. Zito
age: 30 in May
2005: 228 1/3 IP, 171K, 89BB, 113 ERA+ (AL)
2006: 221 IP, 151K, 99BB, 116 ERA+ (AL)
2007: 196 2/6 IP, 131K, 83BB, 98 ERA+

comments: doesn't get injured, regularly tweaks his pitches and delivery for varying results. has always walked a lot of batters but doesn't seem to pay the price for it really. not an ace, though.

M. Cain
age: just turned 23
2005: 46 1/3 IP (plus 145 2/3 IP in AAA), 30K, 19BB, 183 ERA+
2006: 190 2/3 IP, 179K, 87BB, 108 ERA+
2007: 200 IP, 163K, 79BB, 122 ERA+

comments: i think i've watched at least a couple of games where he took no-hitters into the 8th inning. when he's on, it's something to watch. younger than lincecum.

T. Lincecum
age: will be 24 in june
2005 (Pac-10): 104 1/3 IP, 131K, 71BB, 3.11 ERA
2006 (Pac-10): 125 1/3 IP, 199K, 63BB, 1.94 ERA

Minor leagues (2006-2007): 62 2/3 IP, 104K, 23BB, 1.01 ERA

2007: 146 1/3 IP, 150K, 65BB, 111 ERA+

comments: over a strikeout an inning his rookie season. filthy.

N. Lowry
age: just turned 27
2005: 204 2/3 IP, 172K. 76BB, 113 ERA+
2006: 159 1/3 IP, 84K, 56BB, 95 ERA+
2007: 156 IP, 87K, 87BB, 113 ERA+

comments: we know him pretty well by now. slightly above-average soft-tossing lefty with a nice changeup, but that's about it. strikeout-to-walk ratio has fallen from about 2.5 to exactly 1.

K. Correia
age: 27 1/2
2005 (AAA): 46 IP, 35K, 23BB, 6.07 ERA
2005: 58 1/3 IP, 44K, 31BB, 92 ERA+
2006: 69 2/3 IP, 57K, 22BB, 129 ERA+
2007: 101 2/3 IP, 80K, 40BB, 129 ERA+

comments: 11 starts in '05, strictly bullpen in '06, used as a swingman in '07 (59 appearances, 8 starts).

J. Sánchez
age: just turned 25
2006: 40 IP, 33K, 23BB, 91 ERA+
2007: 52 IP, 62K, 28BB, 75 ERA+

comments: lefty. started 4 games for the giants in each of 2006 and 2007, but came in out of the pen otherwise. played in only 18 games in the minors in '06 (9 starts), and had 27 appearances for SF, and in '07 he had 8 games in the minors (5 starts), and 33 appearances for SF, so perhaps there was an injury at some point? anyway, he seems altogether unremarkable, aside from a pretty decent K-rate. i know i saw him pitch at least once but i can't recall what it was like.

P. Misch
age: 26 1/2
2006 (AA): 103 1/3 IP, 79K, 24BB, 2.26 ERA
2006 (AAA): 65 IP, 57K, 11BB, 4.02 ERA
2007 (AAA): 66 2/3 IP, 74K, 19BB, 2.29 ERA
2007: 40 1/3 IP, 26K, 13BB, 107 ERA+

comments: lefty, decent control.

Here's a little something on Mitre [ http://www2.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/players/Sergio_Mitre/ ] as I've learned in the past there are good scouts & bad scouts so I don't always take what I read as definitive. but there is a little something on him.

At first, I read this post and was like, blah blah blah blah, who cares about the Giants and their pitching trade potentials, but the allocation of information "upshot" to the post coupled with a cross-evaluation of the Dodgers' perceived pitching needs was clever. Kudos, Jon.

261 plaschke would never use a phrase like "inherently fungible".

well i think we have a few 5th starters on our team...why sign him then? if we pay him big bux he better be better than a 5th starter.

im not saying i think he will be bad or anything...i dont know alot about him...
i just know people will jump off the overpay him bandwagon if he isnt good.

280

For me, he has the upside of a very strong number 3 but the most important thing is that it fulfills Colletti's need for another SP and in the process we don't lose our top young players and maybe trade Pierre or sit him instead.

Kuroda isn't really the prize. The prize is a full season of Ethier-Jones-Kemp

277 you know what, i think sanchez started for the giants the night of the Dodger Thoughts - SF Chapter game. he was decent.

270 A pitcher like Kuroda. Anyone that does not involve moving Kemp or Ethier.

See 273

283

no, but I'm talking about Mitre though bro...

If he [Mitre] were on the market I'd much rather take my chances on him as our 4th or 5th starter (he's cheap too!) but he's not so I guess some one else will have to do. I don't know but I think he has really good potential.

226 - If it eases your hatred of the man any, Mitch Webster was the Dodgers' midwest scout who found Scott Elbert and Blake DeWitt. In the same draft, IIRC.

270 - And remember that not everyone wants him.

287 - And I say that with a smile :)

286
Andrew disliking Mitch Webster is very, very, very, very edgy.

286- I'm long over hating him. I still think he has a silly name.

110 At least we can't trade with Montreal ever again.... Instead, we get Russell Martin. That's more like it.

Poor Mitch Webster. His BB-Ref sponsor hates him, too.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/webstmi01.shtml

290
Hey, I'm only commenting here as a favor to Mitch and (Eddie) Murray.

USC sent its band to College Station for the soccer playoffs. UCLA sent its band to Stanford for the volleyball playoffs.

Apparently, the UCLA players fare better with musical accompaniment.

293 i loved eddie murray.

294 Far better acoustics indoors.

292- The Mitch Webster sponsorship is up in four days. All you Mitch lovers can cue up to rectify this injustice!

292

oh man, that's too funny!!

282 Exactly what he said.

Is Mitch basking in those warm sunny days of 1986?

I was kind of surprised Eric Enders sponsored Kemps Baseball-Reference.com page, that's pretty cool.

292 Speaking of which- the A. Jones page needs a sponsor, but they're asking $155. 10 people here want to split it?

So Shimmin, who is by nature and nurture edgy, hated Mitch Webster solely because of his name? Wow. I can see that for Brad Wellman -- there's a name we can all agree is worthy of scorn -- but for Mitch Webster?

Clearly, Andrew Shimmin is not to be trifled with.

302 wow, i didn't realize they had such variable rates for page sponsorship. i wonder how much dough they rake in.

I wish I sponsored Russell Martin's B-R page.This guy or team sponsors his page check it out [ http://tinyurl.com/ywsac2 ]

Bhsportsguy's alma mater, Uni High, lost the LA City Invitational (lower division) championship game to Garfield, 28-23.

304
It's $350 for Stan Musial.

A situation that Jon and I have both lived through.

http://tinyurl.com/32umsx

302
Druw, sponsored by the folks from DT.
What if he flops?
AJ could use the goodwill, but not the $155.

Kemp is deserving, Eric just beat us to the punch.

Brad Wellman's BBRef page: $5.

Being able to say you make Brad Wellman's BBRef page a reality: Priceless.

I disliked him because he was bad. And they kept re-signing him! Every year, I thought that was the end of Webster. But he was always back.

I died a little inside each time his name was announced. I'm more zombie than man, now, because of Mitch Webster.

302 Is Ethier available?

312- No. But Hull, Meloan, Houlton, and Kuo are.

313 Kuo really needs a good vibe.
He can be good , if he can only stay in one piece.

um...at least Mike Webster was GREAT!

right?

306

the score says it was a good game no? I don't know football.

293 - I applaud that, even if no one else did.

http://tinyurl.com/yomsph

I found this a min ago...

has some funny/crazy clauses that have been in some major leaguers contracts.

I think Alvin & the Chimpmunks movie is long over due.

319 Who are Alvin and the Chimpmunks?

They should re-release thier original album, made of a beautiful red, clear plastic.

293

There is a really cute picture of a little league team on the bottom right hand corner.

Talks between the WGA and producers have collapsed. The war of attrition is now fully engaged.

An Alvin and the Chipmonks Movie
A Leave it to Beaver--The Movie (hopefully not animated.
And a tribute to IIRC, in the most general way.

My favorite part of the Plaschke column today was his mention of Pierre being second in the league in sacrifice bunts as if that is something to be proud of.

324 - I know. I wish there were other ways to move batters ahead a base ... I mean besides walks, doubles, triples and homers.

Reds 2008
I think this could be one of the better rotations in the league in 2009, but it is a pitcher or two away in 2008. They lost Kyle Lohse and Eric Milton to free agency, but they have some great young guys coming up to join Harang and Arroyo at the top of the rotation. The Reds might make some noise in the weakest division in baseball as soon as 2008, but will really start to contend in 2009 (with the best prospect in baseball, Jay Bruce, leading the way).

Aaron Harang, 29
2007: 231.2 IP, 52 BB 218 K, 125 ERA+
2006: 234.1 IP, 56 BB 216 K, 124 ERA+
2005: 211.2 IP, 51 BB 163 K, 112 ERA+
Not your traditional ace, but he is a work horse with rock solid peripherals. He is under club control until 2010 with an option for 2011.

Bronson Arroyo, 31
2007: 210.2 IP, 63 BB 156 K, 110 ERA+
2006: 240.2 IP, 64 BB 184 K, 142 ERA+
2005: 205.1 IP, 54 BB 100 K, 100 ERA+
Another innings eater, though his peripherals (FIP of 4.53, 4.21, 4.61) suggest he won't replicate his nasty 2006 again.

Matt Belisle, 27
2007: 177.2 IP, 43 BB 125 K, 88 ERA+
2006: 40 IP, 19 BB 26 K, 130 ERA+
2005: 85.2 IP, 26 BB 59 K, 97 ERA+
He missed most of 2006 with lower back problems, that appears to be behind him. He was pretty unlucky on balls in play last year (FIP of 4.54), though playing in a band box probably doesn't help. If he can get his ERA into the mid-4's, which his peripherals suggest he should be, then he is a nice, cheap pitcher in the back of the rotation. Still a huge fall off from Arroyo.

Homer Bailey, 21
2007: 45.1 IP, 28 BB 28 K, 81 ERA+
2007: (A+,AAA) 75.1 IP, 37 BB 66 K, 3.82 ERA
2006: (A+,AA) 138.2 IP, 50 BB 156 K, 2.47 ERA
2005: (A) 103.2 IP, 62 BB 165 K, 4.43 ERA
Missed more than a month of the season with a strained groin (ouch!) and was mediocre when he was in the rotation. He was one of the best prospects in baseball after his lights out 2006, but his K's are down and his BB are up in 2007 so he has plenty to work on in 2008.

Bobby Livingston, 25
2007: 56.1 IP, 8 BB 27 K, 88 ERA+
2007: (AAA) 104.1 IP, 17 BB 63 K, 3.80 ERA
2006: 5 IP, 6 BB 3 K, 25 ERA+
2006: (AAA) 135.1 IP, 36 BB 69 K, 4.59 ERA
2005: (AA,AAA) 168 IP, 42 BB 119 K, 3.43 ERA
He is a Carlos Silva type, and if his BABIP falls into a normal range he could post an ERA in mid 4's. On the other hand, he got hit hard last year (23 LD%) so maybe he just won't ever get enough swings and misses to be effective.

Johnny Cueto, 22
2007: (A+,AA,AAA) 161.1 IP, 34 BB 170 K, 3.07 ERA
2006: (A,A+) 138 IP, 38 BB 144 K, 3.07 ERA
2005: (Rk,A+) 49 IP, 10 BB 44 K, 4.78 ERA
I wouldn't be surprised if he made the team out of spring training (he isn't on the 40 man roster yet but he is a non roster invitee). He is a phenomenal prospect and he hasn't lost a step at any level he's been promoted to. John Sickles ranks him above Homor Bailey and looking at his stats, I agree.

Matthew Maloney, 24
2007: (AA,AAA) 170.2 IP, 54 BB 177 K, 3.64 ERA
2006: (A) 168.2 IP, 73 BB 180 K, 2.08
2005: (A-) 37 IP, 15 BB 36 K, 3.89
Supposedly he is a finesse pitcher, but his numbers look dominating. He is another N.R.I. and I bet he will be up by midseason.

Tom Shearn, 30
2007: 32.2 IP, 13 BB 16 K, 94 ERA+
2007: (AAA) 143.2 IP, 51 BB 109 K, 4.20 ERA
2006: (AA,AAA) 98.2 IP, 43 BB 103 K, 2.65 ERA
2005: (AAA) 93 IP, 44 BB 93 K, 4.26 ERA
A Scott Erickson catch magic in a bottle N.R.I. to spring training (after 6 mediocre starts last year). He has been in the minors with the Reds for 4 years after 7 years with the Astros.

322 Then I fear for the writers, even though they are %100 in the right.

326

I think the Reds are a sleeper team for Bedard. They have a really nice farm system and could potentially match up pretty well with the Orioles' needs.

322
Alan Ladd, Jr. says that the writers should realize that they are killing the business at restaurants like Orso.

328 - Homer Bailey has been mentioned as a possible centerpiece to such a trade. If the Reds could get Bedard for Bailey and Drew Stubbs for example then that would be a great trade for them and not a bad haul for Baltimore. I think Cueto is going to be better than Bailey anyway and Bedard would look really nice on top of that rotation.

Just voted on LA Times site. We're at 66.2% with some 6,850 votes cast.

Do you think that poll might get back to the front office carrying any weight?

330

They would need to add a third player to that deal. Drew Stubbs isn't anything special.

This is starting to scare me.

331

Last night that poll had 72% in favor of no-Pierre. Now it's down to 66%? What if it gets down to 60%? 53%? Are some folks voting more than once?

333
I just voted.

2/3's in favor of a no-Pierre outfield is encouraging to me. Especially when you consider that it is the last choice out of four listed.

I hope people from Florida aren't allowed to vote.

333 Here's the reason why the right answer is slipping in the poll: NedCo has interns working day and night voting for an OF of Pierre-Jones-Whomever.

333

I don't know & don't care but I got duped into voting my self... if anything Ned Colletti will wake up tomorrow & go to the Times website & a least acknowledge that we want Pierre in a white sox uni.

333 I'm not sure if everyone can vote more than once. Since I was born and raised in Chicago, the one vote rule doesn't ever apply to me so I rarely pay attention to silly things like voting regulations. In fact, when I die, I'm going to be buried in the Windy City so I can vote from the afterlife.

Oh yeah, I also helped get Manuel Noriega elected quite a few times.

338 I just voted, I'm going to try again now.

Brewers had the following staff for 2007 (Sheets was injured)
Suppan, Bush, Capuano, Sheets, Vargas, Cordero (closer), Turnbow (setup), Shouse, Villanueva

The Brewers are reportedly shopping 1-3 of their starters; made a 3 yr/$13 mil deal with Riske after losing free agent relievers Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrin; stocked up on relief pitchers via the rule 5 draft:
Joe Bateman, 27, AA , Yankees; 4-1 with a 2.88 ERA in 29 relief appearances with Connecticut +
Richard Campbell, 26, Nationals; 3-5 with a 4.91 ERA and nine saves in 47 relief appearances with Harrisburg +
Juan Sandoval, 26, AA, Mariners; 2-6 with a 5.74 ERA and three saves in 40 appearances between West Tenn and Class AAA Tacoma last year

And traded apair of right-handers, Kevin Roberts and Marino Salas for Salomon Torres.

They appear to be a good fit for Gagne (and seem to be interested) but the Boras client is apparently asking too much and sure to get a good arbitration deal from Boston.

They also lost Sushirabbit favorite R.A. Dickey to free-agency with the twins (then snagged by the Mariners in the rule 5.)

As of this moment the staff looks to be like this:
Sheets, Suppan, Gallardo, Villanueva, and Parra. Closer: Torres; Relief of Bush, Riske, Mota, Turnbow, Shouse, McClung, (Stetter, Wise)

Ben Sheets, RH, 29 (looks to remain the ACE)

Year Ag IP BB SO ERA+ WHIP
2007 28 141.3 37 106 117 1.238
2006 27 106 11 116 119 1.094
2005 26 156.7 25 141 128 1.066

Jeff Suppan, RH, 32 (potential trade bait) innings eater
2005 30 194.3 114 119 1.384
2006 31 190 104 108 1.453
2007 32 206.7 114 97 1.505

Chris Capuano, LH, 29 (real trade bait)
2005 26 219 176 107 1.384
2006 27 221.3 174 113 1.247
2007 28 150 132 88 1.493

David Bush, RH, 29 (a younger Tomko?)
2005 25 136.3 75 99 1.254
2006 26 210 166 103 1.138
2007 27 186.3 134 88 1.401

Yovani Gallardo, RH, 21 (looks GREAT in person)
2007 21 110.3 101 122 1.269
minors:
2007 77.2 28/110 2.90
2006 155 51/188 1.86
2005 121.1 51/110 2.74

Carlos Villanueva, RH, 24
2006 22 53.7 39 123 1.006
2007 23 114.3 99 114 1.347
minors:
2007 8.1 1/9 3.24
2006 128 40/120 3.23
2005 133 41/138 3.11

Manuel Parra, LH, 25 (curve, finesse type)
++ On June 25, 2007, Parra pitched a perfect game against the Round Rock Express++
2007 24 26.3 26 119 1.405
minors:
2007 106.2 33/106 2.45
2006 86 40/90 2.93
2005 91 21/86 3.96

Chris Oxspring might have been a possible callup but I thinkhe was sold to the Korean LG Twins, and Bob will have to tell us how a return works.

334 As did I. I think I will open a Hoegaarden to the thought of an Ethier, Jones, Kemp outfield. A JP, Jones, Kemp outfield would probably point me to some form of brownish liquid on ice that doesnt taste as well. Cheers!

A possible DT invasion of Holland would move up to the top of my list of fun things to do in '08.

335

...a no-Pierre outfield is encouraging to me. Especially when you consider that it is the last choice out of four listed.

That's right! How the heck did that wind up as the LAST choice? oooh that Plaschke! :)

It's been a crazy few days, my one year old has pneumonia but is doing better. Anyway, I forgot Vargas. He and Bush are probably not going to be starting next year, but who knows what trades might be made. In fact, I don't know why I included the Gagne bit, because the Brewers got Torres. Anyway, good posts by Jon, and comments too.

I'd been wondering for a while now on what happened to Luke Prokopec & I finally got my answer, from Wikipedia >>>Kenneth Luke Prokopec (Born February 23, 1978) is an Australian-born, right-handed pitcher who played in Major League Baseball for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays. While with the Dodgers in 2000 and 2001, the tandem of Prokopec and fellow Australian Jeff Williams gained considerable popularity in the Los Angeles area. However, the attention was short lived, as both moved on to other franchises. Prokopec was traded to Toronto on December 13, 2001 along with Chad Ricketts in exchange for Cesar Izturis and Paul Quantrill.

While fondly remembered by Dodger fans and Australians living in the U.S., Prokopec has since left Major League Baseball and is presently playing in his native Australia. Prokopec is now the head baseball coach for the Queensland Academy of Sport in Brisbane, Australia.

341 Are you serious about Amsterdam? I'd go for sure if there was a trip of DTers bound for there. Radiohead and Belgium beers! If you are serious, they play July 1st.

BJ's Brewhouses carry Hoegaarden on tap. They also have the Lambic beer. Even my wife will drink that, so fruity and tingly.

343 My nine month old has dealt with two ear infections the past two months. I can't imagine what a one-year old with pneumonia would do to me, that is scary just to think about.

Hope your child is out of the woods and well on the mend. Sending my best through cyberspace.

Always remember Luke, stay afresh and strive!

346 If you are putting her to bed with a bottle of milk, try substituting a bottle with water instead. This method had great results in ending the ear infections at my house back in the day.

The camaraderie on this site has really shined these past few days, since the A. Jones signing. I don't know if anyone else has noticed it but there seems to be hardly any arguments and generally everyone is on the same page. The site is scarcely quarrelsome on its worst of days, but it just seems extra lovely recently. Jon, I know it is said over and over again how great of a site Dodger Thoughts is and how wonderful of a job you do in keeping it up, but it cannot be said enough, this community truly is a priceless gift.

Before the book gets closed on the Cubs...

http://tinyurl.com/2lm3x5

There are more people in the mix than you might think.

350 - I was hesitant to throw Dempster back into the mix for the starting rotation because he didn't start any games in 2007 for the Cubs and I figured they had enough of that experiment already.

348 Interesting idea. He is on the bottle with little or no water by itself. He is eating baby food, but seems to prefer the bottle. I'll look into the water idea.

344 And remember, there was plenty of discussion at the time whether we should have sent Prokopec or Gagne to the Jays for Quantrill/Izturis. Somehow I don't think there would be any doubt now.

::Warning, WAY off topic::

Bob, I was wondering if you knew...

The CBS ID Station Break logo for the 1979-80 season seemed to change colors back and forth.

After "The NFL Today" we got a Blue Logo
After some prime time show, we got a Green Logo
After "The Price is Right" we got an Orange Logo

Any correlation?

My guess: Blue was Sports, Green was Prime Time, Orange was Daytime... and I'm out of my mind.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJtlNLcVK9I

[I love the Ron Hicklin Singers!]

Why the NFL Network will never show a replay of the Bears/Dolphins "fall from Undefeated" game broadcast from 1985:

http://tinyurl.com/2omxdc
(think about it)

I bring it up today because, at the time the Bears were 12-0. Wouldn't you know? The Patriots are 12-0 right now :)

Personally I'm hoping they save that loss for next week when they play... yep, the Dolphins! (they being the Pats)

Oops, they play the Jets, not the 'fins. Second oops, the Dolphins are an abyssmal 0-12.

333 I've voted a couple times on different computers (home, work, etc.)

Did the San Diego Padres have the National League's best starting staff in 2007? Well, their starters had the lowest ERA (4.11), 3rd most strikeouts, 2nd fewest walks and the lowest amount of home runs allowed. But 142 players attempted to steal a base and only 11 were caught. And of course, there is their home ballpark, while it may not have affected their win/loss record that much, it certainly influenced their statistics.

Their 2007 rotation consisted of Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Greg Maddux, Justin Germano, David Wells, Clay Hensley.

Wells was DFAed and they had Jack Cassel and Brett Tomko make a few starts for them, Tomko started the last game of the regular season in Milwaukee which might be the last important game he ever starts in his career. The Padres re-upped Maddux for another year and signed free agent Randy Wolf to an incentive-laden contract. While the Padres might project Wolf as a starter, I think they will have to wait until spring training to see how he has recovered from his surgery.

As of December 8, 2007, their top 7 starters are the following: Peavy, Young, Maddux, Cassel, Hensley, Germano and Tim Stauffer.

Jake Peavy, RH, 26
Year Ag IP BB SO ERA+ WHIP
2007 26 223.1 68 240 159 1.061
2006 25 202.1 62 215 99 1.231
2005 24 203.0 50 216 134 1.044

Chris Young, RH, 28
2007 28 173.0 72 167 129 1.098
2006 27 179.1 69 164 117 1.132
2005 26 164.2 45 137 108 1.257

Greg Maddux, RH, 41
2007 41 198.0 25 104 98 1.242
2006 40 210.0 37 117 109 1.219
2005 39 225.0 36 136 104 1.222

Jack Cassel, RH, 27
2007 27 22.2 5 11 102 1.544
Minors
2007 26 156.2 42 117 3.91 1.56
2006 25 155.0 46 119 4.35 1.34
2005 24 82.0 33 50 3.95 1.61

Clay Hensley, RH, 28
2007 28 50.0 32 30 59 1.880
2006 27 187.0 76 122 109 1.337
2005 26 47.2 17 28 226 1.049
Minors:
2007 28 71.0 34 50 6.72 1.92
2005 26 90.1 22 71 2.99 0.94

Justin Germano, RH, 25
2007 25 133.1 40 78 91 1.298
Minors
2007 24 32.0 3 20 1.69 0.81
2006 23 155.0 24 92 3.48 1.21
2005 22 161.1 37 138 3.79 1.30:

Tim Stauffer, RH, 25
2005 23 81.0 29 49 72 1.494
Minors:
2007 25 130.2 36 96 4.34 1.40
2006 24 153.0 52 89 5.53 1.64
2005 23 75.1 17 64 5.14 1.42

Wade LeBlanc, a 23 year old lefty who pitched in both the Cal League and Texas League last year is the prospect closest to the majors according to Baseball America's top ten list published this past week.

359 If you put Wolf in the rotation, you could have a bunch of guys battling for the 5th spot. However, despite all the publicity about a 1-2 punch, Young still hasn't pitched more than 179 innings in a season. Add that to Maddux's age and Wolf's third straight season coming off an injury and you could see a lot of movement between Portland and San Diego next year.

I know that Jon posted the Padres rotation and asked if this scared anyone and most people said no.

But it scares me. Peavy is one of the best pitchers in baseball. When Young is healthy hes is a very good pitcher and the same can be said for Wolf. Maddux is a solid pitcher. That is a good rotation and I expect the Padres to add some decent hitting to go with it.

How do people here feel about Miggy Tejada? Doesn't it make sense to take on Tejada's salary in a trade for Bedard to possibly keep Kemp? Maybe LaRoche, MacDonald, Hu, Meloan and a younger high-upside guy (Bell? Baez?) for Bedard and Tejada? We give the O's a young and good left side of the infield, a possible #3 starter and bullpen help. Can they do better than that, when factoring in the money they save on Tejada?

Forgot to mention that Tejada would play 3rd for the Dodgers.

If reports are true that Tampa Bay wants Andre Ethier, the only pitcher on TB's roster that interests me is Scott Kazimir, a terrific, young lefthander. I wonder who we would have to package with Andre to get Kazimir?

a healthy/normally producing Nomar and/or LaRoche are both better options than any 3rd baseman we could get at this point i believe.

Kaz for Ethier straight up could very well be the best idea i have yet to hear.

other that signing a 4th or 5th starter, such as Kuroda, letting Nomar and LaRoche battle for 3rd and shipping out Pierre for a box of crackerjacks, of course.

Miggy is attractive and his slight decline last year at about age 30 is easily explained by his broken hand.
Still I think it would take a lot to get him and I wan't to get a look at Laroche.
Also I haven't heard if he would like to play third.

Kazmir is one of the most valuable commodities in baseball. If you offered Kemp for Kazmir straight up the Rays would turn you down.

368 Exactly! A 3.64 lifetime era pitching in the AL East and 3 years from free agency?

Not gonna happen! It would be nice, but not gonna happen!

Scott Kazmir, 24
2007: 206.2 IP, 89 BB 239 K, 130 ERA+
2006: 144.7 IP, 52 BB 163 K, 142 ERA+
2005: 186.0 IP, 100 BB 174 K, 116 ERA+

Ethier wouldn't even been a starting place for a trade for Scott Kazmir. I am guessing Kemp, Kershaw and another prospect, probably another pitcher (they don't need Laroche, they have Evan Longoria). He is under club control for another 3 years and he dominated in the AL East.

369 That being said, I don't see any possible trades that make sense with the Rays that include Ethier.

Shields is a great young pitcher as well, but he's even more valuable to the rays then Kazmir.

There are no other players on the Rays worth having, so despite the Rays interest in Ethier, I don't see a trade that makes sense, unless Colletti goes brain-dead.

371 Let me edit that response in that the Rays have no other players available (assuming they would be keeping all their good young talent). Obviously they have other players worth trading for, but not ones they would be willing to give up.

http://www.sptimes.com/2007/12/07/Rays/Rays_taking_patient_a.shtml

This article does say the Rays could tempt the Dodgers with cheaper alternatives then Bedard, but in looking at thie rotation, who could that be if the assumed Kazmir & Shields are untouchable? I don't see them trading Garza. The DOdgers "CAN"T" want Edwin Jackson back, and he's not even close to being Ethier value anyway. Forget Reyes or Wheeler! Dodgers have that in their system now!

Strange article, but I still don't see a trade that makes sense.

Agreed. Reyes is old and Wheeler had a lackluster 07' season. We do not need either one.

Of course, we'd all rather just keep Ethier and trade Pierre to the White Sox.

374 Of course, we'd all rather just keep Ethier and trade Pierre to the White Sox.

Absolutely! Too bad Pierre is such a nice guy! A perfect gentlemen! If he were like some of the other prima donna athletes of today, he would be screaming to the press how upset he is that the Dodgers have signed Andruw Jones, and would be demanding a trade, saying "I'm a Centerfielder, not a Leftfielder!"

345 I am fairly serious if others are. I just stopped through Amsterdam for a quick 3 days in August. I didnt get to do much outside of the Rembrandt and the Van Gogh, but I got a nice little taster. I also had the chance to see Modest Mouse one night, but got lost around town for a few hours on my bike and by the time I came back it was sold out. I still cant get that out of my head.

Also, I am aware Bob and Trainwreck are into Collegiate Soccer, but what premiership teams are supported around here? Big Arsenal supporter here, fwiw.

I just follow UCLA soccer. It usually doesn't end well.

I'm going to start a new open chat thread, but if you still have an NL pitching report coming, please put it in this thread. Thanks.

376 - Chelsea supporter here (and New York red Bulls - season ticket holder). Been over 3-4 times to see games, including once at Highbury before they torte it down. The 2-2 draw where Henry scored from the quickly-taken free kick.

379 I was at the derby at White Hart Lane over the summer. I also support Stoke City and the Galaxy.

I can take the Astros if no one has claimed them.

380 - That must have been tasty. Last visit for me was in May. I had a business trip to Manchester, but it was the Manchester derby weekend and I couldn't get tickets. Went to Wigan to see them play Boro instead then took a train to Sheffield on Sunday to see Wednesday play Norwich City. Been to games at Stamford Bridge, Highbury, Craven Cottage, Selhurst Park, Upton Park, JJB Stadium and Hillsborough. I think I liked Highbury and Hillsborough best. With the exchange rate what it is I decided against going over this year.

Here goes nothin. I excluded a few very brief stints in the minors, but this should do. No real insight or anything, but wouldnt it have been sweet if Roy hit the market. That trade last year with the Rockies seems pretty dumb overall.

Roy Oswalt (30)
2007: 212/60/154/138
2006: 220.7/38/166/149
2005: 241.7/48/184/144

Wandy Rodriguez (28)
2007: 182.7/62/158/96
2006: 135.7/63/98/79
AAA: 26/13/13/6.92 ERA
2005: 18.7/53/80/77
AAA: 46.1/16/48/3.69 ERA

Woody Williams (41)
2007: 188/53/101/83
2006: 145.3/35/72/111 (SD)
2005: 159.7/51/106/79 (SD)

Chris Sampson (29)
2007: 121.7/30/51/96
2006: 34/5/15/210
AAA: 126/14/68/2.50 ERA
2005
AA:150/19/92/3.12 ERA

Matt Albers (24)
2007: 110.7/50/71/75
AAA: 53/22/43/3.74 ERA
2006: 15/7/11//74
AA: 116/47/95/2.17 ERA
AAA: 25/10/26/3.96 ERA
2005: 148.2/62/146/4.66 ERA ( High A )

Brandon Backe (29)
2007: 28.7/11/11/117
AAA: 25/11/25/4.32 ERA
2006: 43/18/19/118
AAA: 20/13/13/5.40 ERA
2005: 149.3/67/97/89

Troy Patton (22)
2007:12.7/4/8/124
AA: 102.1/33/68/2.99 ERA
AAA: 49/11/25/4.59 ERA
2006
A+: 101/37/102/2.94 ERA
AA: 45/13/37/4.40 ERA
2005
A: 78.2/20/94/1.94 ERA
A+: 41/8/38/2.63 ERA

Juan Gutierrez (24)
2007: 21.3/6/16/74
AAA: 156/63/108/4.15 ERA
2006
AA: 104/34/106/3.03 ERA
2005
A: 120.20/43/100/3.21 ERA

Felipe Paulino (24)
2007: 19/7/11/62 (Unsponsored)

380 check 168

oh well

here's mine anyway

The Houston Astros are still looking to add a starter in the off season. Beyond Oswalt they don't have much with any experience left that impresses. A few young arms could step up if the timing is right. I added the traditional ERA at the end of the stats to compensate for all the young un's with out Major League Stats (TM) 2007

Roy Oswalt Age: 30
Team Year Innings Walks Strikeouts ERA+ ERA
HOU 2007 212 60 154 138 3.18
HOU 2006 220 38 166 149 2.98
HOU 2005 241.667 48 184 144 2.94

Clearly one of the best pitchers in the National League although his K/9 rate has slipped every year since 2004...

Wandy Rodriguez Age: 28
Team Year Innings Walks Strikeouts ERA+ ERA
HOU 2007 182.667 62 158 96 4.58
HOU 2006 135.667 63 98 79 5.64
HOU 2005 128.667 53 80 77 5.53

2007 was Rodriguez's best year. His K rate went up but his ground ball rate dipped below 1.00 for the first time in his career... and in case you have not noticed, his name is Wandy.

Woody Williams Age: 41
Team Year Innings Walks Strikeouts ERA+ ERA
HOU 2007 188 53 101 83 5.27
SD 2006 145.333 35 72 111 3.65
SD 2005 159.667 51 106 79 4.85

Gregory Scott Williams is getting up there in pitcher years and his last year was probably his worst. I doubt he has much left in the tank.

Troy Patton Age: 22
Team Year Innings Walks Strikeouts ERA+ ERA
HOU 2007 12.667 4 8 124 3.55
(AAA) 2007 49 11 25 N/A 4.59
(AA) 2007 102.333 33 68 N/A 2.99
(AA) 2006 45 13 37 N/A 4.40
(A+) 2006 101 37 102 N/A 2.94
(A+) 2005 41 8 38 N/A 2.63
(A) 2005 78.667 20 94 N/A 1.94

Patton is young but could be a good bet to spend most of '08 in the Astro's starting rotation with his plus fastball. He is their number 2 rated prospect for 2008 according to Baseball America.

Brandon Backe Age: 29
Team Year Innings Walks Strikeouts ERA+ ERA
HOU 2007 28.667 11 11 117 3.77
HOU 2006 43 18 19 118 3.77
HOU 2005 149.333 67 97 89 4.76

Backe spent most of '07 and part of '06 recovering from elbow ligament replacement surgery. Without further injury, he will probably stay in the rotation as a league average starter.

Chris Sampson Age: 29
Team Year Innings Walks Strikeouts ERA+ ERA
HOU 2007 121.667 30 51 96 4.59
HOU 2006 34 5 15 210 2.12
(AAA) 2006 126 14 68 N/A 2.50
(AA) 2005 150 19 92 N/A 3.12

Probably will be in the bullpen for most of '08 but he pitched reasonably well starting 19 games for the Astros last year.

Matt Albers Age: 24
Team Year Innings Walks Strikeouts ERA+ ERA
HOU 2007 110.667 50 71 75 5.86
(AAA) 2007 53 22 43 N/A 3.74
HOU 2006 15 7 11 74 6.00
(AAA) 2006 35 10 26 N/A 3.96
(AA) 2006 116 47 95 N/A 2.17
(A+) 2005 148.667 62 146 N/A 4.66

Matt seems to struggle with control and doesn't really strike that many people out to make up for it yet he is somehow 4th on the "official" Astro web page depth chart for starters (he's 7th on mine). Baseball America also projects him to be the #2 starter in 2011, ahead of Patton and Paulino. Go figure.

Felipe Paulino Age: 24
Team Year Innings Walks Strikeouts ERA+ ERA
HOU 2007 19 7 11 62 7.11
(AAA) 2007 49 11 25 N/A 4.59
(AA) 2007 102.333 33 68 N/A 2.99
(AA) 2006 45 13 37 N/A 4.40
(A+) 2006 101 37 102 N/A 2.94
(A+) 2005 41 8 38 N/A 2.63
(A) 2005 78.333 20 94 N/A 1.94

The Astro's number 3 prospect on the BA list is this guy. He's a lefty with control and could make some noise should the cards fall in the right place for him.

Other possibilities include Juan Gutierrez (number 4 BA prospect), and Roger Clemens (should the Astros be in contention and the Yankees out of money).

Very Sorry. I must have skimmed past that one.

384 no problemo

I that is every team except the Dodgers. From what I can tell, no one in the NL has much in the way of 4th and 5th starters. If anything, the Dodgers are looking like they have far more options than most.

*I think that is

Dodgers:
Chad Billingsley (23)
2006: 90/58/59/118
2007: 147/64/141/138
Minors
2005:
2006:
2007:
Comment: Great strides in 2007. Optimism reigns

Brad Penny (29)
2005: 175/41/122/105
2006: 189/54/148/154
2007: 208/73/135/151
Comment: HR rate improved in 2007, but BB/SO declined

Derek Lowe (34)
2005: 222/55/146/114
2006: 218/55/123/124
2007: 199/59/147/118
Comment: Pretty consistent

Hong-Chih Kuo (25)
2005: 5/5/10/61
2006: 60/33/71/106
2007: 30/14/27/62
Minors:
2005 (A+/AA): 54/21/86/ 1.99
2006 (AAA): 53/22/633.06
2007 (AAA): 20/8/28/3.60
Comment: Those strikeouts are always worth holding out hope he'll be healthy, even for a short run.

Jason Schmidt (35)
2005: 172/85/165/97
2006: 213/80/180/125
2007: 26/14/22/72
Comment: ERA+ of 179 and 136 the previous two seasons will probably become more distant memories.

Esteban Loaiza (36)
2005: 217/55/173/108
2006: 155/40/97/91
2007: 37/20/20/76
Comment: Maybe he's got a good year left, but let's not get our hopes up.

D.J. Houlton (28)
2005: 129/52/90/79
2007: 28/7/21/109
Minors
2006 (AAA): 162/60/132/5.61
2007 (AAA): 106/39/92/3.65
Comment: A viable fifth starter.

James McDonald (23)
Minors
2005 (R): 6/2/9/1.50
2006 (A): 142/65/146/3.99
2007 (A+/AA): 134/37/168/3.07
Comment: Continue to be impressed by his fast strike-zone development.

Scott Elbert (22)
Minors
2005 (A): 115/57/128/2.66
2006 (A+/AA):146/85/173/2.90
2007 (AA): 14/10/24/3.86
Comment: Looking to get back on track post-surgery.

Clayton Kershaw (20)
Minors
2006 (R): 37/5/54/1.95
2007 (A/AA): 122/67/163/2.95
Comment: Sometimes loses the strike zone? Otherwise racing upward

Eric Stults (28)
2006: 18/7/5/80
2007: 39/17/30/79
Minors
2005 (AA/AAA): 146/38/118/5.05
2006 (AAA): 153/68/128/4.24
2007 (AAA): 89/36/81/7.56
Comment: Can't see him holding off McDonald/Elbert/Kershaw

The Dodgers don't need another pitcher, but I can see why they want one. The foursome of Kuo, Schmidt, Loaiza and Houlton probably can keep the four and five spots warm for the trio coming up behind them, but there are some obvious question marks. Loaiza and Houlton are valuable because at least they aren't big injury risks, so even if they are fungible at least they can go out there.

Jon, are you planning on doing a post with this research?