Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Jon's other site:
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TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Catching up on things I didn't get around to posting ... as reported elsewhere, ex-Dodgers Eric Gagne, Milton Bradley, Paul Lo Duca and Randy Wolf have all agreed to terms with new teams over the past few days. Just in case you missed it.
Some other links:
True Blue L.A. has been a good read of late, with pieces on potential lineup problems for the Dodgers and even more so for the Padres, and another piece on lineup construction.
Baseball Analysts discusses the Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter signings before heading into a discussion of total bases per swing, a stat designed to shine a light on bat control and strike-zone judgment. James Loney appears in a top 10 that also includes Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones, Barry Bonds, Hanley Ramirez, Jorge Posada and ... Jeff Keppinger?
399 - Derek Lowe is a classic "2".
Derek Lowe has pitched over 1200 innings the last 6 years, and has been above average in all but one of them, including all 3 seasons in LA.
His ERA+ over the last 6 seasons in 117, 29th among those with 600+ IP
His ERA+ over the last 4 seasons in 110, 37th among those with 400+ IP
He's pretty much the definition of "above average".
DePo both traded for & signed Penny to an extension.
OK gang, we all love this site and all the work Jon has done to keep it the best area on the tubes to talk Dodger baseball and just about any other subject. And it's that time of the year where some of us get into the giving spirit.
One way to show your appreciation is to click on the little PayPal button on the side bar and make a donation to the site. I will match anyone's contribution up to $200 total for the next two weeks (12/22). I want no one to feel any pressure to contribute. We all have different priorities and situations, so if you don't want to, that is perfectly fine.
But for those who do contribute, send me an email at mleadman@charter.net telling me how much you donated. At the end of the two weeks, I'll match whatever total we have up to the aforementioned $200.
Update: I've gotten $75 worth of donations so far. Thank you to the ones who gave!
Those seems like reasonable parameters.
That can't still be true. Care to update again?
Put simply: let's just be sure to agree on the ranges for each category. I'm fine with those posted by 6
$4.75m base salary
$175k for each start 11-30 (potential $3.5m total)
$250k for 190 IP
$500k for 200 IP
Potential for $9m total.
http://tinyurl.com/yrn2rt
I'd bump Zambrano to 4 but keep Hamels at 3 until he does it again this season. I agree that Hamels is better than Lowe, but there are varying degrees of "3".
Ted Williams and Paul Molitor are both HOFers, but it doesn't mean they're equal.
As someone pointed out in the last thread, getting more precise with the rankings isn't going to end the debate or even necessarily make the system better. In the end, you can be precise to several decimal places if you want, and still you're just guessing at what the pitcher is going to do in 2008 - and 2008 is entirely what this exercise is about. I really there's a strong argument for keeping the rankings more general, because you're essentially building in a margin for error that's appropriate.
You can start adding/subtracting half points to a bunch of different pitchers, and you're not going to change a team's point total significantly, plus you've created more work for yourself and more room for debate. Because again, this isn't meant to be just a review of past seasons, but a forward look.
The goal is not to determine who has the best staff to a precise degree. The goal is to give you an idea of where you stand.
So I'm not convinced about making those changes. I'm not saying I wouldn't - but I'm just not convinced they'll accomplish anything. But anyone who wants to take the raw stats and apply their own methodology to it, I'd certainly be willing to look at it.
Thanks again!
http://tinyurl.com/ywstl6
The Blue Jays are also joining this great crusade.
There's plenty of time left for other teams to join the bandwagon. I'm looking at you, St. Louis!
Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp autograph baseballs are selling for $40 and $33, respectively. An Ltd Bob Feller was selling for $40 as well. Minor leagues vs. HOF - go figure. Supply & demand at work, I guess.
409. GoBears
I think one thing to remember is that Jon's project is for the 2008 season only. I'm sure everyone would take Hamels over Lowe if they were building a team, or signing multiyear deals. And Hamels probably even has more upside (potential for greatness) in 2008. But I am not certain that Hamels WILL have a better 2008 than Lowe, and as Jon says, the main reason for caution is uncertainty about his ability to pitch a full season at a high level next year.
410. Benaiah
The point isn't to construct the perfect system to determine exactly how productive each rotation will be. We could try to use ZIPS and a formula we came up with to figure it out within a broad range if we wanted to, but it would just point out that nothing is certain until the year starts. People will get hurt, people will overperform and underperform, line drives with be hit right at people and groundballs will find the gap. You can't know beyond a certain amount how good a staff is going to be next year. This is just as simple as: "How many pitchers next year fall within broad guidelines of past performance, possibility of injury, age and repeatibility."
Hamels will probably outperform Lowe next year, but how many times out of a hundred will Lowe be better than Hamels? Surely there is about thirty percent chance that someone as healthy and consistent as Lowe at 34 (Schilling was a super above average 4 until he was almost forty) will outperform Cole Hamels, an oft injured pitcher with one season where he was better than Lowe (48.8 VORP vs 30.5 VORP). Lowe was better in 2006 than Hamels was in 2007, and Lowe's 2005 was even better. I know Lowe isn't a very likable guy, but Hamels isn't on a different level than him, yet.
This was a fine undertaking, not the last word on rotation ranking but it really gets the point across. By not signing another Juan Pierre type of albatross the Dodgers are giving the trio of young guys a chance to show what they can do. We don't need an insurance replacement pitcher to use in dream trade scenarios to get rid of his albatross contract and clear space for the young guys. We have enough starting pitching.
This has been a great response. Obviously you feel as I do that this is a special site. I truly thank you. This is incredibly special. You are the greatest.
I hope you all have a very happy holiday season (how's that for being politically correct!)
Of course, you can still click on that Paypal button if you want to give to the cause. You just won't have me around to help you out :-)
vr, Xei
Yes, it's quite messy.
(Had some tonight. On scrambled eggs.)
What can I say? The fine folks in the marketing department of Heinz brainwashed me as a child.
I can accept that.
[shiver]
(What can I say? I'm a beleaguered English teacher who has been grading papers all day)
Unless it's between Redlands and La Verne grads.
If you guys want to email Kuroda and tell him to come on down to LA and team up with Mr. Saito you can do so here...
http://www.kuro15.com/contents/cheer/form.html
It can't hurt right?
Nite all
Check out his "everybody has a right to their opinion" response haha and his last comment. I like it!!!
davissportsdeli.com/James%20Loney%20Interview%20December%209.html
Kay's intense bias against the Dodgers is well known, but this current attack appeared both blatantly unwarranted and unfounded.
As long as C--i's not in the report, I'll be happy.
With Jones and Kemp perhaps both willing to move a trash can, how will this affect Kent?
The Brewers want to trade for either a third baseman or left fielder, Blalock or Ethier, and maybe move Braun to left field because of the errors he made at third last year. Would anybody want to trade LaRoche and Ethier for Braun?
--------
http://tinyurl.com/2vz6aa
Thomas Boswell in the Washington Post:
"Now, with Lo Duca in hand, the plan has come together. The Nationals have built a respectable major league offense, without sacrificing any pitching or too much defense."
After seeing yesterday what their rotation looks like, yeah, good thing they didn't sacrifice any pitching.
I love this site and read it daily. I would like to give something back and will take the baton on Marty's now expired offer to match donations
For those who would like to donate to the Dodger Thoughts, please email me your donation amount. I will match up to $200
A cynic would call "Shenanigans".
They also have "Thai chili ketchup", but it's not as good.
55 - A hearty welcome to you - thanks!
GO Ketchup! on fries! on burgers! on hot dogs! on hash browns! on..on...i guess thats all i eatit on...but its yummy!
that was for
31
those devilish type tactics were employed by my sister! i cannot forgive her OR you!
she could act so well! i never had a chance!
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/K/Jeff-Keppinger.shtml
And yeah. Welcome.
I'll add to the catalogue of disgusting condiments by mentioning any type of fat-free Ranch dressing, which tastes like regular Ranch dressing stored in a litter box and left in the sun for a few days.
vr, Xei
Pardon me, but do you happen to have...
Splendid! Let me roll down the window on my Rolls and have Jenkins retrieve it from you.
[rolls up window, drives off]
Is Mike any relation to Joseph...?
http://tinyurl.com/yw699k
If you've never tasted the mustard at Phillipe's, you've missed out on one of life's great experiences.
58 Is the Belgian fry joint Oinkster in Eagle Rock?
Mayo is acceptable in small doses, like on a dry turkey sandwich, or with tuna. One of the reasons I stopped eating at Quizno's was the mayo-drenching of all the sandwiches there.
See, that is the problem, right there. Bad food is bad. You can't fix it with other bad food. If the thing is insufficiently greasy, don't eat it. Eat something that's good, instead. Like bacon.
He actually gets up and leaves.
92 Now there's a man with taste.
But you left out pizza. I can always get my kids to scream by putting that stuff on a slice of pizza.
The optimistic projection (15%):
.323/.374/.539 22 HR 41 BB
Average:
.303/.348/.483, 18 HR 37 BB
Pessimistic (15%)
.282/.323/.427, 11 HR 26 BB
That optimistic projection looks pretty awesome, but man that pessimistic... Matt Kemp has topped his optimistic home run total once, when he hit 27 in Vero Beach (which Andrew points out as the best home run park in the minors), and his walk total once (he had 46 BB in 2006 over three levels). Last year he had 14 home runs and 26 BB over 453 at bats between AAA and the majors. He is young and you would expect progress, but his huge jump in OPS in 2007 was entirely due to increasing his batting average nearly 100 points. His ISOslugging (.195 to .178) and ISOpatience (.036 to .031) went down from 2006. No way he hits .340 again so I hope to see some improvement, any improvement, in his component stats in 2008.
In my heart I believe Kemp will be a star with the Dodgers, but in my head I think trading him for Bedard would only suck because it meant Pierre would play every day.
Mayo--The single most disgusting manufactured foodstuff on the planet. I believe everyone's allowed one irrational food dislike [my wife's is mushrooms].
Catsup--For kids. I will eat cocktail sauce [basically catsup plus horseradish; often a rougher texture] and I'm quite fond of certain BBQ sauces.
Mustard--It's vinegary, you know? So if you don't like strong vinegar flavor, it's not for you.
Yank Sing Chili Sauce--God's greatest gift to mankind.
Ketchup - like it with fries, and on hot dogs (with mustard and pickles), and as an ingredient in meatloaf
Mustard - was fiercely loyal to plain yellow mustard for ages, but more recently have come to enjoy different varieties. The horseradish mustard at Philippe's is the best I've ever tasted (I'm still kicking myself for not buying a bottle)...love mustard on hot dogs, bratwurst/sausages, and more recently as a dip for pretzels (hard kind, not the soft, with which I've always liked mustard)
Mayonnaise - the white-headed stepchild of condiments. Only acceptable in small doses when mixed with tuna, although I prefer my tuna plain
Also, Pico Pica or Cholula on eggs is divine.
Then you stay up all night selling it (along with cocaine) to an undercover cop who's got a sister named Jan, who (inexplicably) loves your drug dealer partner.
I'm very intrigued by Dillon. There have been noises made about moving Braun to LF, or platooning Dillon and Hall. I'll be rooting for the guy. Check out the last few years.
http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=3981
for a feel good story:
http://tinyurl.com/3eyteg
Mustard, on the other hand, is high art. A (preferably spicy) mustard dipping sauce is the perfect compliment to a wide variety of meats. Ketchup is awful though, I want onions, hot peppers and maybe chili or pickles on a hot dog not tomato puree and vinegar.
West Coast barbecue sauce >>>> Carolina barbecue sauce
And (Derek) Jeter
Salsa is a great and underrated condiment. It's especially good on spinach salads.
Barbecue sauce - tomato based, but different substance. Not as multi-purpose, but good.
Honey - Preferred for chicken, but half the time fast food places don't have it.
Mustard - never cared for it.
Mayonayse - That's disgusting. Ruined a burger at Wendy's for me.
Honey mustard - It's like hey, it's sort of what you want, but then it's not. I can't find an analogy.
Relish - never been a fan.
Tabasco - no thanks.
Well, I might be confounding West Coast with the kinds you list. I like the tomato-based stuff. The vinegar-based stuff here in NC is disgusting.
Come to think of it, it doesn't really matter much now that I more-or-less stopped eating meat.
Just don't give me any that was made in NEW YORK CI-TEEE..?!?!?!
e.g., I'll have a calzone, with no mayo; I'll have the carne asada burrito, no mayo; Let me get the yellowtail sashimi, no mayo; I'll try the kung pao chicken, but please make sure there's no mayo on it; etc.
As for the BBQ sauces, yes the others are all tomato-based sauces. While Texas may be the most multi-faceted of the good sauces, I've never had any as certain Memphis sauces with ribs and Kansas City sauces with brisket.
Salsa as a dressing. I usually add some parmesan cheese and olive oil as well.
Nobody like pleats.
All I know is I rank standard mayo (not OJ Mayo) at the very bottom (okay, maybe alongside sauerkraut and relish), and even more strongly so after my g/f got food poisoning from some spoiled mayo that was on a sandwich she purchased recently. More upscale mayo mixes, like pesto mayo are better, and aioli, but I'm still not a fan. Give me gourmet mustards, salsa, and BBQ sauce, depending on the wheres/whats of each and on what...
We should do an all-condiment sports name team.
OJ Mayo
Chad Mustard
Mike Relish (I'm making that up)
er... I'm stuck after that.
Ketchup-Burgers/Fries only
Mustard-yes
Mayo-Maybe a little "light" mayo on the turkey Sandwich, sure..
BBQ-Love it all.
My mom would/does put ketchup on Steak? Are you kidding me?
Nowadays, mayonnaise isn't worth it unless it's real mayo, not that crap in jars.
Mustard of all varieties. I do not relish relish. Salsa and hot sauce in all varieties, again sans jars.
I prefer "catsup" to "ketchup" (although I also prefer "yoghurt" to "yogurt"), and also like specifying "tomato catsup." Back in the day, catsup just meant sauce -- which is why you'll still see "tomato ketchup" on your ketchup or catsup.
Love my different types of mustard. You may only use mustard on a bratwurst. For whatever reason the bratwurst I've had in the US have never compared to Germany. It might just be an age thing and it might be because I've never had a brat from Milwaukee.
Won't swear off Mayo but hardly use it anymore. It is a bit gross to see what people will dip into mayo.
I rarely eat hot dogs anymore but if I do they must have catsup, pickles (not relish), and mustard.
From the mayonnaise haters, I'd like a ruling on Miracle Whip, otherwise known as "salad dressing" in the generic brands. No eggs and you can find varieties with very little fat.
That is indeed a treasure. A nice holiday box of avocadoes to your fellow DT posters would be a great way to celebrate the season.
Gooey green stuff creeped me out until I was 30. Now I can't imagine living in a world without Guac.
Big fan of spicy mustards, a good salsa, and BBQ sauce.
I hate any kind of mayo, kind of like Disabled List's friend in 117 . I also hate sour cream with just as much passion. Maybe I have something against the white condiments.
I like their "horsey sauce", although I haven't eaten at Arby's in some time.
"I'm so hungry, I could eat at Arby's."
"Oh dear god!"
(Sorry, Jon.)
Your so predictable and your going to hate the fact someone thinks your predictable.
Sour cream is a cultured dairy product. Cultured in the sense that it has bacteria added to it to produce a flavor.
Mayonnaise is a sauce.
It would be akin to comparing ketchup to blood.
So he was on a plane that was hijacked and forced to land in Austin and now he's been kept there against his will?
Is Mack Brown behind this? Or Augie Garrido?
135. You can still buy mushroom ketchup in England and Spain today.
144. Chicago just has a strange breed of people, I've seen a fair amount of Chicagoans refer to marinara as gravy, and to reiterate, they really, really hate it when anyone over the age of 10 puts ketchup on hot dogs.
"I'm just sitting here watching the wheels go round and round...you know I love to watch them roll."
With the exception of pleats.
Mustard-OK
Ketchup-good
Wasabi-WOW!!
Like little children and kittens.
I like mustard on lots of things.
I like mayo on some things.
98 Mayo--The single most disgusting manufactured foodstuff on the planet.
Velveeta/Cheeze Whiz begs to differ.
113 Carolina BBQ is horrible.
It's sad, Benaiah, after your many cogent posts here, to see you obliterate your credibility like that. How can we believe a word you say now?
Does the good cancel the bad when combined with eating the salt lick that McDonalds, calls fries?
Yes, good point! For some it seems to be ketchup. For me, hmm, well I am not too fond of mushrooms either, however my real disgust is reserved for bananas. Yeech! Just the smell, awful.
I find it amusing that Mike Smith is actually creating the Zappala family.
Ketchup: I used to use a lot more of it, on burgers, fries, scrambled eggs, and meatloaf. Now, not so much, since I rarely eat burgers, and have converted mostly to a much less healthy condiment for my fries...
Ranch dressing: Excellent on fries, especially Red Robin fries. A real downfall of mine.
BBQ Sauce: I like to combine about half and half of the hot and the sweet sauce at Busters Texax BBQ, with a BBQ turkey sandwich and fries.
Mayo: Love mayo a bit too much, especially on a turkey sandwich, on burgers, and on the occasional fry (like at Fuddruckers.)
Mustard: Well, it's good in devilled eggs.
Salsa: Love it, mostly use it on chips. Whole Foods has a good roasted corn salsa too.
No mention of the mighty 'Bows just yet . . .
I've heard wonderful things about KC BBQ. Gates is supposed to be great.
there very flattering in the crotchal region. it's an optical illusion! wow...this is embarrassing.
ok, got my anchorman reference out of the way.
http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/024192.php
1. Nectarines
2. Pears
3. Plums
4. Pineapples
5. Oranges
I cant stand peaches, red apples, and everything melon besides watermelon.
1.watermelon
2.nectarines
3.mangos
4.pineapple
5.apricots
Jon, I'm going to look up Cleveland's pitchers and post it in the previous thread. I don't think anyone has done the Indians yet.
Of all the store-bought salsas, I'll take Pace Picante.
I used to think Miracle Whip was fine until my future b-in-law converted us all to Best Foods/Heileman's.
http://jcsmidnitesalsa.com/
"Hell Hot" is my preferred level, which is plenty fiery. "Hotter 'n Hell" will lift your skull clear off, and "Blackout" is not to be taunted.
Ketchup/Catchup/Katchup: Required only for french fries
Mayonaise: Required only for artichokes (my wife hates me for this, but oh well) and a turkey sandwich on November 23rd.
Mustard: Plays for avg and slg
Salsa: 5 tool condiment
Any Hot Sauce: 3 sport/meal star. Can choose MLB/NBA/NFL
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