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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Slot Rot
2007-12-11 21:43
by Jon Weisman

From Jon Heyman of

The Tigers were right to ignore baseball's ridiculously arbitrary slotting system, whereby teams use a player's draft position as the guideline for what his signing bonus should be. By ignoring it, Detroit was able to sign the better prospects and put them in a position to make this trade. The Yankees also have wisely ignored MLB's bonus recommendations. And now the Mets' Minaya told Baseball America and Newsday they may have to rethink their resolve to stick to the system. Being what Minaya called "good citizens," has cost them big time.

Previously on Dodger Thoughts: one of a few stories I wrote about a sore subject I kind of decided I shouldn't bring up again.

* * *

Jeff Kent tendered his non-resignation, Diamond Leung of the Press-Enterprise reports. Thanks to commenter Eric Stephen for spotting it before I went to bed.

Comments (244)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2007-12-11 21:49:09
1.   Eric Stephen
Jeff Kent is officially back.

2007-12-11 21:50:00
2.   trainwreck
Yeah, buck the system! Spend the money on the draft!

We want Blair!

2007-12-11 21:50:08
3.   Eric Stephen

Padres signed Tadahito Iguchi...1 year / ~$4m

2007-12-11 21:50:25
4.   Jon Weisman
1 - I guess that's bigger news.
2007-12-11 21:50:28
5.   Eric Stephen
Other NL West news...which team got the best 3 year / $30m pitcher?

Rockies extended Aaron Cook.

2008 (age 29) - added $2,5m bonus to existing $4.5m salary
2009 - $8.75m
2010 - $9m
2011 - $9.25m
2012 - $11m mutual option ($500k buyout)

He's battled injuries, but has put up some good, albeit possibly misleading numbers:

2004 - 115 ERA+, 3.72 K/9
2005 - 130 ERA+, 2.59 K/9
2006 - 116 ERA+, 3.89 K/9
2007 - 116 ERA+, 3.31 K/9

2007-12-11 21:51:21
6.   Eric Stephen
I posted it in the last thread and thought for sure when I clicked on the new post Kent would be the topic. I was trying to figure out how "Slot Rot" fit the topic! :)
2007-12-11 21:52:50
7.   Vishal
4 except for the fact that it was totally expected.

re: arcade fire... i never got why people are so into this band. seriously, what's the big deal?

2007-12-11 21:54:57
8.   Eric Stephen
With tomorrow's arbitration deadline, I expect a human interest piece from Plaschke with the headline, "Hendrickson to Dodgers: Love Me, Tender"
2007-12-11 21:55:32
9.   Daniel Zappala
Bob, if you're going, expect a heavily pro-BYU crowd:

"Each school was provided 12,000 tickets to distribute to its fans. BYU sold its entire share in just under two days, but UCLA gave BYU several thousand tickets from its allotment to sell to BYU fans, according to BYU associate athletic director Duff Tittle."

2007-12-11 21:56:22
10.   Vishal
btw, jon, you were dead on about kyle blair. i think i said so at the time, and i'll say it again. there's no way this voluntary slot payment restriction system can hold up in the long term.
2007-12-11 21:57:24
11.   trainwreck
I know there are a couple other Dillinger fans on here.

What do you guys think of Ire

2007-12-11 21:58:40
12.   natepurcell

I haven't heard it yet but its on my to do list!

2007-12-11 21:59:31
13.   Bob Timmermann
UCLA fans are to football tickets as a hungry Esau was to his birthright.
2007-12-11 21:59:52
14.   trainwreck
It is a mix of Miss Machine and totally new more melodic stuff. Of course, they had to be quite different with only one guitarist. A lot more use of electronics.
2007-12-11 22:00:37
15.   Eric Stephen
Adding more to 5 , Cook seems like he's walking a tightrope with his low K numbers, but he's generally given up very few homers (amazing in Colorado), doesn't walk a lot of guys and is Madduxian in his pitch efficiency.

His FIP ERA the last 4 years have been reasonably good:

2004 - 4.33 (D.Lowe 4.33, for comparison)
2005 - 4.23 (Lowe 4.10)
2006 - 4.11 (Lowe 3.72)
2007 - 4.50 (Lowe 3.97)

2007-12-11 22:02:13
16.   Eric Stephen
Woo hoo! My first "above the fold" mention on Dodger Thoughts.

I'm going to frame my monitor.

2007-12-11 22:06:22
17.   StolenMonkey86
If you mandate that revenue sharing money has to be spent on personnel, and say the draft counts, the slot limits will be history.
2007-12-11 22:06:51
18.   overkill94
7 Funeral is an amazing album pretty much from start to finish. I'd be hard pressed to think of a more emotional album due to the combination of excellent lyrics and visceral vocals.

Neon Bible is one I'm having a hard time getting into, so it's possible they were more of a one-album wonder, but the critics seem to like it so maybe there's hope yet.

2007-12-11 22:09:37
19.   StolenMonkey86
I wonder what Kuroda's DIPS would be for 2004:

147 IP, 187 H, 17 HR, 29 BB, 139 K

2007-12-11 22:21:25
20.   Michael D
Speaking of Canadian Music Thoughts, Devin Townsend is Canadian. That guy is friggin amazing, and by himself has made Canada worthy of being in existence.
2007-12-11 22:26:43
21.   sweepstakes
Not sure if it was mentioned in last post but mlb trade rumors his Dodgers in lead for Kuroda.
2007-12-11 22:29:26
22.   MC Safety
I remember Bob saying Hiroshima is pretty bad. How much of an impact do you guys think that had on his record, and is run support relevant?
2007-12-11 22:32:26
23.   arbfuldodger
Hey Nate you are making too much sense on the Oriole board and also blowing up their fantasy of rebuilding w/ all our best prospects.

I love how if they take Pierre's contract that means we have to throw Broxton as a sweetner.

2007-12-11 22:46:11
24.   StolenMonkey86
Ok, I was going to say Pierre for Jay Payton, but I'm feeling generous enough to say Pierre and Hendrickson for Jay Payton and Danys Baez, particularly since Baez just had Tommy John and we won't have to see him next year.
2007-12-11 22:55:35
25.   LogikReader
DeAngelo Hall Reaction to Petrino backstabbing, uh, I mean switching to Arkansas, is now up at (as of 10:55 pm)
2007-12-11 22:55:51
26.   Eric Stephen
Update from Tony Jackson: Kuroda on a plane, scheduled to land at LAX at 9:30am Wednesday.

2007-12-11 23:02:03
27.   neuroboy002
7 , 18 I listened to Neon Bible before Funeral. I was hooked immediately after I heard "Intervention." "Wake up" is also high on fan lists. They did a terrific job on SNL earlier this season.
2007-12-11 23:13:00
28.   Eric Stephen
In Ken Gurnick's mailbag the other day, he mentioned the Dodgers have $98.1m currently committed in salary. I try to keep track of this stuff on my own (for the Dodgers and several other teams -- weird hobby, I know!) and I'm $350k off. Can somebody shed some light for me? Here's what I have so far for the 2008 payroll:

Andruw - $14.1m (includes $9m salary & $5.1 singing bonus)
Furcal - $13m
Kent - $9m
Nomar - $8.5m
Pierre - $8m
Total Offense - $52.6m

Schmidt - $15.5m (includes $15m salary & $500k bonus)
Lowe - $10m
Penny - $9.5m
Loaiza - $7m
Total Pitching - $42m

Dead Weight
Tomko - $1m (buyout of 2008 option)
Odalis - $750k (split buyout of 2008 option 50/50 with KC)
Mueller - $750k (signing bonus due 1/15/08)
Wolf - $500k (buyout of 2008 option)
Lieberthal - $100k (buyout of 2008 option)
Lucille II - $50k (buyout of 2008 option)
Total Dead Weight - $3.15m

Total 2008 Committed Salary - $97.75m

My total is $350k off of Gurnick's number, and the only place I can think it comes from is that Kent had some performance escalators in his contract. However, the Kent returning stories mention his salary for 2008 being only $9m, so I'm confused.

2007-12-11 23:16:49
29.   Lexinthedena
26- I wish Tony Jackson wasn't wearing that Hawaiian shirt in his pic....he might as well be wearing a clown costume....
2007-12-11 23:17:08
30.   Eric Enders
I think Neon Bible is the best album of the past decade. (At least.) Funeral is great, too, though.

Duff Tittle?

2007-12-11 23:21:54
31.   StolenMonkey86
28 - You gotta pay Loney, Martin, Kemp, Ethier, Billingsley, Broxton, Saito, Brazoban, Proctor, a backup catcher, Repko, LaRoche, Beimel, and I might forget something, especially if we forget to non-tender Hendrickson

That'll run at least $10 million there

2007-12-11 23:23:03
32.   scareduck
In what dimension do you regret writing that piece about the Dodgers cheaping out on Kyle Blair? It didn't stop you from publishing a similar piece from CanuckDodger in re international signings:

It seems inconsistent.

2007-12-11 23:24:42
33.   Eric Enders
32 Nowhere does Jon say he regrets it.
2007-12-11 23:32:17
34.   Eric Stephen
I understand all that. But, at this very moment the only committed salary is for the players listed in 28 . The following players are all under team control in 2008, and will make in the $400k range (the minimum is $390k):

Young (out of options)
Meloan (may be a starter in AAA)
Kuo (out of options)

That's 8-11 players making a total of $3.2 - $4.5m

Technically Saito is also under team control, but he's likely to get a lucrative deal, in upwards of $2m, not to mention possibly a multi-year deal (with maybe a Kuroda recruitment bonus?)

We will find out tomorrow who gets offered arbitration, of the following players:

Beimel - a lock to come back, made $912,500 in 2007 (5+ yrs service time) - likely ~$1.5m in 2008
Proctor - a lock to come back, 1st-year arb-eligible (3 yrs service time) - likely ~$1m in 2008
Hendrickson - a definite maybe, made $2.925m (5+ yrs service time) - likely ~$3.5-4m in 2008
Repko - a maybe, 1st-year arb-eligible (3 yrs service time) - likely ~$600k in 2008
Brazoban - a maybe, 1st-year arb-eligible (3 yrs service time) - likely ~$750k in 2008

2007-12-11 23:39:35
35.   Eric Stephen
In the new LA Times article, Dylan Hernandez reports Seanez has been offered a 1-year contract by LA, and that Rudy's agent says 6-8 teams have expressed interest.

Seanez made $1.1m total in 2007 ($700k base + $400k for reaching games played incentives)

2007-12-11 23:43:16
36.   silverwidow
Hendrickson - a definite maybe, made $2.925m (5+ yrs service time) - likely ~$3.5-4m in 2008

No. Way. There's just no way.

2007-12-11 23:45:02
37.   Eric Stephen
I wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot pole, but it wouldn't shock me if he was offered arbitration (highly unlikely if the Kuroda deal is basically done)
2007-12-11 23:45:08
38.   arbfuldodger
From Rotoworld: Hiroki Kuroda reportedly informed the Hiroshima Carp on Tuesday night that he planned to sign with the Dodgers.
2007-12-11 23:48:06
39.   Eric Stephen
The Mariners blog in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer also says Kuroda is coming to LA:

"multiple reports out of Japan said that Kuroda will settle instead with the Dodgers for the next three seasons."

2007-12-11 23:51:17
40.   Eric Enders
The Seattle PI is running with the story, citing "multiple reports out of Japan."

Kuroda Picks Dodgers Over Mariners

2007-12-11 23:51:45
41.   Lexinthedena
The video I've seen of Kuroda doesn't impress me...
given it's a tiny sample but nothing that get's me excited....either way it's good because the youngsters stay!

Now Pierre to Texachicagmore and I'm in a state of Dodger elation...

2007-12-11 23:51:47
42.   Eric Enders
Or, what he said.
2007-12-11 23:59:16
43.   silverwidow
If Schmidt is healthy, Loaiza goes to the pen (in the Hendrickson role).

If not, we use Stults/Houlton for long relief, then bring up McDonald once Loaiza implodes.

2007-12-11 23:59:53
44.   Eric Enders
If Colletti is done dealing, I think we'd have to rate his off-season as an unqualified success. He managed to add a 4th starter and a star center fielder without giving up a single prospect or draft pick or long-term commitment.
2007-12-12 00:01:04
45.   KG16
You know, I was kind of pessimistic at the end of the regular season. I was convinced that Colletti was going to make a bunch of moves for the sake of making them, and that most of them would turn out to be not just bad, but stupid bad.

And here we are, a few weeks from New Year's and so far, no bad moves, let alone stupid bad moves.

And still, I feel like the other shoe is about to drop.

2007-12-12 00:02:23
46.   Blue Mousse
I don't understand the interest in Kuroda. Why waste 30 mil on a #4 starter when pitchers like Lieber and Livan are still available and might be willing to take a one year contract. Has anyone said anything good about this guy projecting him to be better than a #4? Can anyone say with confidence that he'll be better than Loaiza?

This also seems to confirm Jon's article about the stupidity of the Dodgers to not spend money on prospects. Even if Kyle Blair never pitches for us in the ML, barring injuries or a complete collapse, he would be a valuable trading chip in a couple of years. That alone is worth 1 mil. And we just wasted 30 mil on a pitcher will less promise than Blair.

2007-12-12 00:03:53
47.   Eric Stephen
That certainly looks like the plan. We'll also find out tomorrow if the "Hendrickson role" could be filled by, well, Hendrickson. :)

I agree 100%.

2007-12-12 00:07:54
48.   Lexinthedena
45- As long as that shoe is a fleet-footed, psuedo-centerfielder with intagibles...
2007-12-12 00:12:17
49.   Eric Stephen
For me, the Kuroda signing is more a relief in that it means we add pitcher without giving up Kemp or Ethier. I'd rate Kuroda as a better pitcher than Silva or Lohse, although not appreciably so. A 3-year deal seems reasonable.

A Lieber deal seems risky because of his injury history, even for one year. That doesn't seem what the Dodgers need. Livan is an innings eater to be sure (8 straight years and 9 out of 10 with 200+ IP, the other year 199.2 IP) but his quality is certainly declining and would he only want a 1-year deal?

2007-12-12 00:12:58
50.   thinkblue0

That's a pretty hefty statement. The last decade has seen some really great albums. To name a few:

Neutral Milk Hotel -In the Aeroplane Over the Sea
The Flaming Lips- The Soft Bulletin
Radiohead- OK Computer
The Beta Band -The Three EPs
Built to Spill-Perfect from Now On
Godspeed You Black Emperor!-F# A# Infinity
Sigur Rós -Ágætis Byrjun
Broken Social Scene - Your Forgot It In People

Just a few off the top of my head...guess I'm not as into Neon Bible as much...

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2007-12-12 00:20:22
51.   overkill94
If Pierre is able to trade Pierre for something even remotely useful, I will consider this an A+ offseason, especially considering how worried I (and most of us) was when the season ended.
2007-12-12 00:22:44
52.   overkill94
50 My top five of the decade would probably be:

1. The White Stripes - De Stijl
2. Badly Drawn Boy - The Hour of Bewilderbeast
3. The Libertines - Up the Bracket
4. The Strokes - Is This It?
5. The Arcade Fire - Funeral

2007-12-12 00:23:11
53.   overkill94
51 Wow, too much boxed wine tonight, change the first Pierre to Colletti
2007-12-12 04:23:29
54.   Megaballs
Kent back. Kuroda coming. Pierre and Hendy going.
Could be a great day in LA...
2007-12-12 06:20:25
55.   CanuckDodger
Over at Ducksnorts, a Padres' fan comments, "Dang Dodgers actually throwing around their money wisely this off season, I hope this isn't a sign of things to come."
2007-12-12 06:31:02
56.   scareduck
33 - I would take Jon saying that he "kind of decided [he] shouldn't bring up" a story as regret.
2007-12-12 06:31:59
57.   scareduck
55 - he has little to worry about, unless the Andruw Jones deal pans out for the Dodgers. I'm really not impressed with that one; it's a lot of hope and not much else.
2007-12-12 06:51:28
58.   Terry A
44 - While there's still a big "if" in there, Eric, I agree wholeheartedly. And I would add to your list of his accomplishments his apparent staring down of Kent this offseason. Or mollifying him. Whichever.
2007-12-12 07:10:04
59.   Daniel Zappala
44 And yet people were ready to bury Colletti each time an unfounded rumor was published.

30 I was wondering if someone would pick up on that.

2007-12-12 07:17:21
60.   D4P
And yet people were ready to bury Colletti

The shovels are always within reach, right behind the torches and pitchforks.

2007-12-12 07:20:50
61.   Jon Weisman
32 - I never said I regretted writing it.
2007-12-12 07:21:06
62.   JoeyP
He managed to add a 4th starter and a star center fielder without giving up a single prospect or draft pick or long-term commitment.

The last thing this team needed was another costly PVL 4th starter. And 3 years is a significant committment to medocrity.

Why would you ever committ 3 years to a 4th starter?

2007-12-12 07:22:28
63.   Bob Timmermann
Japanese news agency story (it's in English):

Kuroda will never has his surname pronounced correctly by people in L.A.

Unless they are Japanese natives.

2007-12-12 07:23:55
64.   Jon Weisman
56 - You left out the word "again."

The subject vexes me, which is why I'm trying to put it out of mind. It's sort of like a Pierre thing for me - I don't really have anything new to say, but each time I'm reminded of it, I get bitter.

2007-12-12 07:35:03
65.   JoeyP
Kuroda's age (33 years old), and the 3yr committment (if true) + salary are troubling to me.

Are the Dodgers really improved by having this guy on the roster for 3 years?

Judging from his previous years in Japan, he's also not used to the innings workload that he'd face in the US.

In terms of asset allocation, this seems more like a "depth/pvl" signing in stead of talent. The Dodgers need talent, not depth.

2007-12-12 07:36:15
66.   MC Safety
A top ten list covering the last ten years of music without Mogwai's Rock Action needs to be redone. I will start w Top 10 albums of the last fifteen years shortly. There is too much early nineties goodness to ignore.
2007-12-12 07:38:16
67.   Disabled List
The slotting controversy is a situation straight out of one my social theory classes. It's the Tragedy of the Commons, where an individually rational decision leads to a collectively irrational outcome.

Reading this made me glad that I was finally able to use my graduate education. God knows I paid enough for it.

2007-12-12 07:39:07
68.   Jon Weisman
65 - I've got to say, I'm sort of with Joey on this. Not entirely resolved, but ...

I'm not really worried about the money per se, though it might be a waste. But if this guy is Dice-K Lite, does he really help? And does this not perhaps increase the possibility that the Dodgers could trade away a more talented pitching prospect, since they can afford to now?

2007-12-12 07:39:22
69.   MC Safety
66 I will start my it should read. I need my tea!
2007-12-12 07:40:01
70.   Bumsrap
The Baltimore papers are saying the Reds, Dodgers, and Mariners are the leading teams for Bedard. As much as I would like to have Bedard on the Dodgers as a free agent, the faster Kuroda is officially signed the faster a #4 pitcher contributes to keeping Kemp, Broxton, Kershaw or at least 2 of 3 of them.
2007-12-12 07:42:41
71.   Ken Noe
The best thing about Kuroda is that, according to Tony Jackson, NedCo now is leaning strongly toward not trading Kemp or Either. All that will be required in the spring will be for Torre to say, "Dang I'm sitting Pierre today." And it will begin.
2007-12-12 07:43:12
72.   CanuckDodger
63 -- So, what to make of Kuroda's quote that he still hasn't made a choice of team? That he is flying to Los Angeles because that is where his agent is? Is he just being coy and doesn't want to say anything till an official anouncement is made?
2007-12-12 07:43:53
73.   D4P
There's nothing particularly exciting to me about signing Kuroda, other than the possibility that it means no one (good) needs to be traded.

On the other hand, as Jon points out, maybe this makes Ned feel like he can "afford" to trade Kershaw or some other young pitcher with a higher ceiling than Kuroda's.

2007-12-12 07:44:46
74.   Bob Timmermann
I think Kuroda is flying to L.A. in part because there are more flights from Narita to LAX than Narita to Sea-Tac.

And I don't think you can fly Narita to San Diego nonstop.

Plenty of Narita to SFO flights though.

2007-12-12 07:45:03
75.   Bumsrap
Rosenthal gave an example of what he thought Baltimore's owner would say if he had a chance to approve a trade of Bedard for Kemp and Broxton. "Kemp is a trouble maker and Broxton is just a reliever" to make his point that Angelos is the one hurting his own team.

Meanwhile, Kemp gets more national awareness that he is a trouble maker even if he isn't. If as a result his trade value goes down, good. Maybe the Dodgers will have to keep him.

2007-12-12 07:46:48
76.   StolenMonkey86
I like that Kuroda's walk rate and K/BB ratios have been decent. I wonder about his homer rate, though, but I really have to wonder how that translates to American ball.
2007-12-12 07:49:26
77.   Ken Noe
68 73 The young pitchers have always been mentioned as adjuncts to a Kemp or Loney deal. If they are staying, I think the pitchers will too. NedCo surely realizes that Lowe is gone in a year, and Schmidt remains a question mark. Doesn't he?
2007-12-12 07:52:24
78.   Pepperdine

If word gets out that Kemp is troublemaker, I'm sure the Dodgers would get a call from the Nationals.

2007-12-12 07:54:47
79.   CanuckDodger
68 -- I don't think it increases "the possibility that the Dodgers could trade away a more talented pitching prospect." Colletti is not going to be more willing to give up a future ace like Kershaw because he tied up a #4 starter for three years. And what could an Elbert, McDonald, or Meloan ALONE get us that Colletti really wants? A middle reliever? He's overpaid for middle relief before, but I don't think he feels desperate about our bullpen situation. Colletti makes dumb moves when he feels desperate. To me, Kuroda is worth $30 million just for keeping Colletti from feeling desperate about our starting pitching.
2007-12-12 07:57:33
80.   D4P
Mitchell has scheduled a press conference at 2 p.m. tomorrow to announce the results of his report.
2007-12-12 08:02:00
81.   StolenMonkey86
80 - Time zone?
2007-12-12 08:03:45
82.   D4P
2007-12-12 08:05:37
83.   StolenMonkey86
That can mean only one thing:

Prediction time!

2007-12-12 08:06:45
84.   Robert Daeley
81 It's a big part of the country where the clocks are set differently, but that's not important right now....
2007-12-12 08:08:59
85.   D4P
Non-exhaustive list of names I'd like to see in the report:

Andruw (sorry)

2007-12-12 08:14:49
86.   StolenMonkey86
Neifi Perez (can't...stop...laughing)
Barry Bonds
Jason Giambi
Gary Sheffield
Jose Canseco
Rafael Palmeiro
Jason Grimsley
Jay Gibbons
Jose Guillen
Guillermo Mota
Ken Caminiti

Jose Valentin
Luis Gonzalez
Sammy Sosa
Gary Matthews Jr

Would make me laugh
Juan Pierre
David Eckstein
Scott Podsednik
Doug Mientkiewicz

2007-12-12 08:15:20
87.   StolenMonkey86
blast! I forgot the Rocket in the guesses list.
2007-12-12 08:15:40
88.   Disabled List
I fear that Eric Gagne is going to be in there. But overall, I think the report is gonna mostly consist of lesser lights like David Segui and Guillermo Mota.
2007-12-12 08:17:10
89.   D4P
Would make me laugh
All Boras clients
2007-12-12 08:17:44
90.   ibleedbloo
I would not be suprised to see Trevor Hoffman on the list.
2007-12-12 08:18:09
91.   D4P
In general, I'm prepared to be underwhelmed. Like 86 and 88 , I think it'll be a mixture of obvious names and people no one cares about.
2007-12-12 08:19:10
92.   StolenMonkey86
91 - I'm hoping it's all in the hillarious list
2007-12-12 08:22:28
93.   Jon Weisman
79 - I guess you're probably right.
2007-12-12 08:22:47
94.   Disabled List

Would make me laugh
Juan Pierre
David Eckstein
Scott Podsednik
Doug Mientkiewicz

That reminds me of the time Wilton Guerrero was busted with a corked bat. I mean, what's the point?

2007-12-12 08:26:14
95.   D4P
Speaking of corked bats, I'll laugh if Slammin' Sammy and Albert "Don't call me Joey" hit the daily double.
2007-12-12 08:26:33
96.   Xeifrank
76. From what I've read, walk rates and HR rates have tended to increase for all (except for Nomo) the Japanese starting pitchers that come over here. Strikeout rates have remained pretty steady. It's a small sample size with only a half a dozen or so Japanese starting pitchers making the journey over here. Kuroda also pitched in a hitters friendly park in Japan if I'm not mistaken (Bob?), making it a little greyer to predict his HR allowed rate in the USofA.
vr, Xei
2007-12-12 08:30:13
97.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
In this market, 3 ys is pretty reasonable for a league-average starter, which seems to be a reasonable projection for Kuroda. I therefore don't see the reason for all the negativity on this possible signing--league average innings from the 4 slot of the rotation is worth a lot more than I think people are giving it credit for.

And while our rotation is better off in depth than most, it's not as if it has no problems--I would be shocked if any of the kids make the team out of ST, and out of Loaiza, Kuo, and Schmidt, maybe one will make the rotation. That still leaves open one slot. Would you rather have Kuroda, or Houlton/Stults? And what if Lowe, Penny, or Bills goes down with injury? Pitching depth is important, and much of our depth is still in AA ball--Kershaw might be ready at mid-season, but he walks too many people right now to pitch in the big leagues. Elbert is coming off injury, and McDonald hasn't pitched a full season in AA yet. One of the three might be ready this season, but I doubt they'll be ready in April.


2007-12-12 08:30:35
98.   Disabled List
After posting 94 , I looked up Wilton on B-R, just for giggles. In 1.5 seasons with the Dodgers, Vlad's brother put up OPS+'s of 90 and 72. In 1997 he drew just 8 walks in 380 plate appearances, yet had a respectable .291 batting average. He had a career slugging percentage of .369.

Do these numbers remind anyone of a certain player currently on the team?

2007-12-12 08:31:58
99.   LogikReader
Speaking of Daily Double, did you guys notice that Alex Trebek had a mild heart attack yesterday? Good thing he avoided Final Jeopardy.
2007-12-12 08:32:51
100.   scareduck
91 - I guarantee 99% of the list will consist of nonentities.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2007-12-12 08:34:00
101.   underdog
I agree with Canuck and others here that a Kuroda signing is more likely to keep Colletti trading for more pitching - and, I don't see him trading away young pitching either - because of what happened this past season. He's said how people thought the Dodgers had unnecessary extra pitchers going into the season but ended up still being caught short, way short. I think he's probably perfectly happy to still have those young guys like McDonald and Kershaw and Elbert down there as depth sooner than later (unlike next year) rather than trading them away. Separate from that, while Kuroda could end up a big bust, from everything I've seen, he should be a solid #4 starter, and I think he'll at least be better than Loiaza. I see nothing but upside with this, frankly, except, again, the possibility he's terrible, which I really don't see.

Plus, if it keeps Sammy Saito happy, I'm happy.

2007-12-12 08:34:37
102.   Bob Timmermann
Hiroshima is a small park, but not exactly a hitter's park.

It gives up more homers, but not hits of other kinds.

2007-12-12 08:34:51
103.   underdog
should say "keep Colletti from trading for more pitching" above...
2007-12-12 08:36:44
104.   Bob Timmermann
More on Japanese park factors:
2007-12-12 08:42:44
105.   Rob M
68 I'd say Dice-K lite would be quite a coup for Ned. Dice-K is very good - his numbers were skewed by league and park factors, but he would likely be a #1 starter for most teams in the NL (including the Dodgers). If Kuroda is average or slightly better, we almost certainly will have the deepest and strongest rotation in the NL.
2007-12-12 08:47:19
106.   MikeB
Hiroki Kuroda, RHP, Hiroshima Carp
Height: 6'1" Weight: 187 Bats: Right Throws: Right Age: 32

"He's not Daisuke Matsuzaka, but Kuroda a very strong power pitcher with a low to mid-90s fastball and a wicked forkball. In addition, he features a plus shuuto, something like a screwball, as well as an effective change. Even if he only pans out as a third or fourth starter in the majors, he will give you innings, work deep into games, and he should be fairly consistent start to start."

From: Baseball Prospectus, November 15, 2007, Nippon Prospectus, Potential Free Agent Imports, by Mike Plugh

2007-12-12 08:52:00
107.   Jon Weisman
"Even if he only pans out as a third or fourth starter in the majors,"

I still don't think people agree on what this means.

2007-12-12 08:52:11
108.   bigblue22
I don't post on here much but I am impressed with the level of baseball knowledge. The lengths that some of you go to in your research is even shocking at times. Anyway, why does everyone seem to be assuming that Kuroda is a #4 starter? Is it possible that he's better than he's getting credit for? How was Saito rated before he came here? Just a thought.
2007-12-12 08:54:06
109.   MikeB
Land of the rising prospects, By Jeff Passan, Yahoo! Sports, December 12, 2007

During his five years managing in Japan, only once did Trey Hillman meander over to his opponents during their stretching exercises. He needed to chat with Hiroki Kuroda.

"I got the interpreter and said, 'I want to meet yesterday's starter.' He said, 'What'd he do?' He's immediately nervous," said Hillman, the new Kansas City Royals skipper. "Gaijin manager, and they put you up on that pedestal. I wanted to tell him how good he was after he had shoved the bats up our rear ends."

Such an impression Kuroda made, in fact, that Hillman plans on flying around the world to court him if need be. Kuroda, the right-handed pitcher, intends on choosing his major-league destination this week, and much like the rest of his Japanese brethren, he isn't short on choices.

2007-12-12 08:54:11
110.   Jon Weisman
Bill Plaschke has decided that Tiger Woods isn't such a bad guy, after all.

Plaschke also made what I thought was a rather insulting comment about the decor of Woods' childhood home, but perhaps I'm being churlish*.

This is not a push for you to read the article.

*first time I've ever used that word. No guarantees that I'm using it correctly.

2007-12-12 08:57:11
111.   MikeB
Tribune Sees Cubs Sale by End of June
December 12, 2007
CHICAGO (AP) - Media conglomerate Tribune Co. said Wednesday it anticipates closing on the sale of the Chicago Cubs baseball team as well as its stake in the local Comcast sports channel during the first half of next year.
2007-12-12 09:02:29
112.   underdog
108 In the Dodgers case, 4th starter because they have 3 clear 1-3 starters ahead of him in Penny, Lowe and Billingsley (in whatever order those three end up being). One team can have a very good 4th starter while another can have filler or worse in that role. And then there's Schmidt, who knows which Schmidt we'll get next season, but if he's anywhere close to form, well, that's a deep 1-5, with Loiaza then a spot starter which is fine by me.
2007-12-12 09:05:57
113.   scareduck
I was thinking about yesterday's Trader Joe's thoughts with Utah-stranded Daniel Zappala in mind and wondering why, when there are TJ's in Scottsdale, AZ, in Illinois (and apparently Indiana and Missouri), and on both coasts, there aren't any in Utah. Near as I can tell the difference is population density. They're also expanding into Michigan and Wisconsin, which may work well. Or not. I suspect they may end up rolling back some of the stores if shipping costs keep going up, which I don't see any near-term end to. My in-laws' hometown of Little Rock could probably support one now.
2007-12-12 09:08:00
114.   overkill94
112 It's a more general term than that. A "potential 3rd or 4th starter" usually means a guy has average to slightly above average stuff and decent command. Basically, it equates to better than average while #1 or #2 starters have excellent stuff and at least good command.

From what I've read, it seems that Kuroda's stuff is better than average and his command is at least decent - making him a pretty good #3. With Japanese pitchers you always have to worry about command though, which is what could knock him down to a #4.

2007-12-12 09:09:08
115.   MikeB
112 Counting on Schmidt at all in 2008 is a highly speculative bet. Recovery from a shoulder surgery is a lengthy process for a pitcher, and not always successful. The odds are likely that Loaiza, Hendrickson and others will see more starts this year for the Dodgers than Schmidt. In which case, Ned is probably not finished dealing for additional starting pitching.
2007-12-12 09:09:17
116.   ROC
Wow. A peek over at Orioles Hangout shows some folks really in need of Jon's "don't take trade rumors too seriously" talk.

A quick scan has posts calling Kuroda "the evil one", linking him to terrorists, putting an embargo on his Christmas presents and calling this "the greatest kamikaze strike since 1944". Sheesh.

Someone should at least go over there and start a condiment thread to distract & comfort them...

2007-12-12 09:12:10
117.   Bob Timmermann
I cannot look, yet I am drawn to it! Curse you, Weisman! Curse me and my curious mind!
2007-12-12 09:12:27
118.   Jeromy
The Seattle P-I is reporting that Kuroda has picked the Dodgers over the Mariners.
2007-12-12 09:22:10
119.   Andrew Shimmin
The Dodgers didn't have a shortage of pitchers, last year. They had a surplus of bad pitchers. Tomko and Hendrickson together got thirty starts last year. Ten more than Billingsley got. Schmidt, Wolf, and Kuo were hurt, but everybody else was more or less healthy. Colletti started picking up waiver wire guys, but it wasn't because he had no pitchers; it was because he soured on the ones he picked.

This is where I have trouble with him, since it's not clear whether he thinks baseball is magic. Is he really surprised that Hendrickson is bad at baseball? When he yammers about depth, at some level it seems like he's trying to pack as much buckshot into the gun, in hopes that, while he can't tell why or which, one of the players won't be bad.

2007-12-12 09:24:12
120.   kinbote
Great news on Kuroda. I think he's a wise gamble. Saito better get a nice recruitment payout for his troubles. The thing I'm most excited about is his potential as an innings-eater. I'm not completely sold on our bullpen this year, so any chance to get out of those middle innings seems appealing to me.

Speaking of bullpens, I'm [foolishly] optimistic that Colletti will non-tender Hendrickson. I just don't see any way we need to tie up $3+ million on him. If we're 100% commited to him as a vital cog of our bullpen, so be it, but we better not hear any gibberish about "rotation insurance." I don't want that man even considered for a spot start. (I also wouldn't mind bringing Seanez back for one more year.)

All that remains this offseason is to trade Pierre. If we can, I will consider this an A+ offseason. Even if Jones & Kuroda don't pan out, I don't fault the thought process that went into acquiring each one. It's not a stretch to say each signing can be considered a coup in today's marketplace [though we've yet to see Kuroda's contract terms].

Now sign that back-up catcher and we're off to the races!

2007-12-12 09:24:41
121.   Andrew Shimmin
Oops. I lost track of the metaphor half way through. Oh well. "... buckshot into the gun, in hopes that, while he can't tell why or which, one of the fragments will hit." Hmm, that's not so good. Oh well.
2007-12-12 09:25:48
122.   Jacob L
117 Just hang in there, Bob. I'm sure somebody else is going to read it for us.
2007-12-12 09:27:02
123.   Jacob L
113 The assumption was, if I'm not mistaken, that the alcohol laws in Utah put too much a crimp into TJs business model.
2007-12-12 09:27:48
124.   paranoidandroid
I think it is too difficult to predict how Kuroda will fair in the States.

Ishii or Saito? Dice K or Igawa?

He's a wildcard. But he's an arm that can put in over 200 innings.

I think it's a reasonable gamble, but it is indeed a gamble.

2007-12-12 09:28:29
125.   Jon Weisman
122 - I already took the hit.
2007-12-12 09:30:35
126.   Jacob L
125 Yeah, but you also made a leading, teasing comment about it, that might lead the rash among us over to that other corner of the inter-tubes.
2007-12-12 09:32:09
127.   Gr-ool
44 Colletti has improved considerably in a short time. Even before, some of his moves were good ones, like the Furcal signing, and the Eithier trade.... I wonder if some will change their minds on Colletti.
2007-12-12 09:33:45
128.   Andrew Shimmin
The decor comment is in the second paragraph. Which is, shockingly, the second sentence, too.
2007-12-12 09:34:40
129.   Daniel Zappala
121 You get points just for using "buckshot".
2007-12-12 09:34:45
130.   regfairfield
108 Until others prove otherwise, I'm citing the Jamie Moyer rule on Takashi Saito, you can't use him as a precedent for anything. It still baffles me how at age 37 a guy can go from a middle reliever in Japan to one of the three most dominant closers in America.

I don't think Kuroda has much potential because he couldn't miss bats in Japan. If he could only strike out a bit more than six per nine there, what will he do against much better competition? Especially since he reportedly has problems elevating pitches. The only two starters to come to America with a worse strikeout rate than Kuroda were Keiichi Yabu and Masato Yoshii, and they didn't exactly have stellar careers.

2007-12-12 09:35:22
131.   scareduck
110 , 117 - what Jon writes:

"Bill Plaschke has decided that Tiger Woods isn't such a bad guy, after all."

What Rob reads:

"Bill Plaschke blah blah blah blah blah."

You only had to stop reading after the first two word, Bob.

2007-12-12 09:36:25
132.   StolenMonkey86
Now sign that back-up catcher and we're off to the races!

I vote for Nomar.

2007-12-12 09:37:00
133.   scareduck
131 - the Gary Larson reference for those who missed it:

2007-12-12 09:39:16
134.   ToyCannon
I'm on board not just as a deal that "might" keep Ned from trading Kemp but as an excellent hedge against the health of the current rotation and as stability for the future rotation.

Seems that we might be missing the bigger picture. If Kuroda is indeed a #3 or #4 his salary is right in line with that expectation. Andrew and others may not be convinced he is worth the contract but I've seen other scouting reports that suggest he is. As we head into 2008 we appear to have a glut of pitchers but as the Phillies can attest, that can change in a hurry. In 2008 the rotation would appear to be the following:
April - Penny, Chad, Lowe, Kuroda, Loaiza
By July we should know if Schmidt is going to be able to handle a rotation slot or if Loaiza will be good Loaiza or bad Loaiza. We will also have a better handle on the progress of Elbert, Kershaw, and McDonald.
Things happen to starting rotations and we shouldn't underestimate the value of having some solid backup plans. If everything works out and Kuroda/Schmidt/Loaiza are filling the back end of the rotation we will have a surplus to trade if we find some holes that need to be filled.

In the bigger picture we will lose Lowe/Loaiza after 2009. If Schmidt does not bounce back from his shoulder surgery to be passable, he might end up being a sunk cost. We would go from 6 starters to 3 very quickly.
Most everyone's expects Kershaw to be in the rotation in 2009. I like the fact we will head into 2009 with at least 4 if not 5 rotation spots filled. If we do indeed sign Kuroda I think Ned is looking as much to 2009 as he is getting insurance for 2008. He probably knows he can't resign Lowe. Lowe will probably want a 4/5 year deal and you can't give him that. I'd rather have Kuroda for two more years at 2/20Mill then Lowe at 4/60Mill.
When pitchers like Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse are the main guys on the FA market and you don't' want to trade your future for pitching, getting Kuroda seems like an excellent alternative. Peavy was just taken off the market. Within weeks we will probably see Santana and CC get taken off the market.

Everything is relative. I see some complaints because were wasting money on a number 4 type of pitcher. If he had been signed by the Mariners/ Arizona he would have instantly become their 2nd best rotational pitcher. Since we have 3 solid pitchers at the moment, he will slot in perfectly in our rotation. I have little faith that Schmidt will be ready or even useful in 2008. Labrum surgery does not have much of a history of success. New Labrum surgery may or may not give him a better chance. Since he was the 1st, no one can say with any conviction that we can count on him. I have more faith that Loaiza can eat some innings but he's frail and it doesn't take much imagination to see a scenario where both Schmidt and Loaiza are not able to help in the rotation.

Sure we have some mediocre depth we could rely on until the kids are ready, but Ned is playing big stakes and instead of relying on hope I think he made a solid move.

2007-12-12 09:39:47
135.   GMac In The 909
Here's some video goodness of Kuroda for those so inclined:

2007-12-12 09:40:55
136.   CanuckDodger
Just visited Orioles Hangout for the first time. The coital longings of men stranded for years, alone, on desert islands and then rescued are nothing, I'm sure, compared to the lusty zeal with which those Orioles fans crave a trade for Dodgers' youngsters. It's so sad.
2007-12-12 09:41:50
137.   regfairfield
134 Yeah, that's pretty much what I see as the upside here. He's probably a better five than Loaiza and he gives us a backup plan if some amount of Kuo/McDonald/Kershaw/Elbert aren't ready and there's not even a mid-teir starter avialable.
2007-12-12 09:42:00
138.   KG16
130 - in the words of Crash Davis, "strike outs are fascist... groundballs are democratic."

While I'm a big fan of strike out pitchers, it doesn't really matter how he gets guys out so long as he gets them out without letting up runs.

I have this feeling that the term 4th starter is going to be like the term 4th outfielder. Everyone is going to have a slightly different definition.

2007-12-12 09:42:20
139.   StolenMonkey86
44 - I don't know about unqualified. The Andruw Jones signing is little more than a waste of $36 million if Juan Pierre plays left field and displaces Kemp or Ethier. So I'm not going to give Ned any credit unless either:

a) He ships Pierre out for someone other than Scott Rolen
b) Joe Torre benches Pierre

2007-12-12 09:42:34
140.   Gr-ool
I'm in agreement with most today on the apparent signing, and a little amazed that some are so down on a pitcher who led his league in ERA in 2006.... As always, Music Thoughts are appreciated. I may have to do some thinking about the last ten years. That's a lot of time, and so many albums to think about. As if I can remember what was great five years ago! ;-)
2007-12-12 09:42:40
141.   Sam PHL
Glad to hear about Kuroda. If it's really $10MM per, it's a good risk. If nothing else, it should keep the kids around. I'm not convinced Bedard is worth the reported cost.

123 - Ah, but there are TJs in Pennsylvania that can't sell alcohol.

2007-12-12 09:42:43
142.   ToyCannon
BP projects Fukudome to have a plus 400 OBP. That might just be what the doctor ordered for the Cubbies.
2007-12-12 09:45:46
143.   regfairfield
142 That's a really, really generous prediction I think. I'd be willing to bet a large sum of money that he doesn't do that.
2007-12-12 09:46:03
144.   Andrew Shimmin
Plaschke's column isn't really about Woods. It's about using Woods as a jumping off point to gripe about all the people he doesn't like.
2007-12-12 09:47:51
145.   Ken Noe
Gerry Fraley, Sporting News: "The Los Angeles Dodgers may have to keep outfielder Juan Pierre because there is no market for him, and newly added center fielder Andruw Jones will need more time off at this stage of his career. Jones leads the majors in games played (1,730) and games played in center (1,629) since 1997. Jones' decline last season can be traced to the effects of that workload."
2007-12-12 09:48:30
146.   GoBears
134. I mostly liked the phrase "rotational pitcher." Reminds me of Luis Tiant.
2007-12-12 09:48:39
147.   Don Tordilla
Apparently, Tejada to the Astros:

2007-12-12 09:50:05
148.   Don Tordilla
AP has the players involved:

2007-12-12 09:54:09
149.   Jon Weisman
138 - But strikeout rate directly impacts how long he "gets guys out so long as he gets them out without letting up runs."

A pitcher who doesn't get strikeouts is walking on a tightrope. He may be up when you sign him, but too often he will fall down.

2007-12-12 09:54:53
150.   regfairfield
147 Wow, the Astros give up the remenants of their farm team, and still aren't any good and the Orioles don't get anything that useful except for Albers and maybe Scott for their second most valuable commodity. I always love when two terrible teams get together.
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2007-12-12 09:55:44
151.   Jacob L
If Ned brings in Kuroda, ships out Pierre, and makes no more moves, I'll be ready for the "Team Ned" t-shirts.
2007-12-12 09:57:45
152.   Peanuts in My Shoes
30 A little late to the conversation, but I saw Arcade Fire at the Hollywood Bowl this summer--amazing. Didn't play "Cold Wind" though, which is my all time favorite AF song.
2007-12-12 09:58:27
153.   overkill94
135 I like Kuroda's fastball - nice downward plane, some lateral movement, seems to be about 90-92. It actually reminds me of Saito's a bit in how sharp it is. His forkball has a pretty sharp downward break, but not quite the tumble you would hope for. The last pitch he throws to Matsui was a quality off-speed pitch although he did leave it up.
2007-12-12 09:58:44
154.   JoeyP
The Dodgers didn't have a shortage of pitchers, last year. They had a surplus of bad pitchers.

Kuroda seems like he's closer to Tomko/Hendrickson/Loaiza, than he is to Penny/Billingsley.

2007-12-12 09:59:12
155.   MikeB
135 Thanks for those Kuroda video links. That at-bat vs. Matsui was terrific. He threw a lot of pitches, but never gave in to Godzilla - and got the "K". He appears to have excellent command.
Bob - did you ever get to see Kuroda pitch while in Japan?
2007-12-12 10:00:09
156.   MC Safety
Baltimore got quite the package. Yikes!
2007-12-12 10:01:16
157.   scareduck
134 , 146 - either way, it sounds like somebody's getting screwed. (For the record, I'm "meh" about this acquisition if it turns out to be real.)
2007-12-12 10:01:24
158.   larry slimfast
150 I have serious doubts about Albers but Troy Patton is a worthy prospect...
2007-12-12 10:03:02
159.   berkowit28
118 The Seattle P-I is reporting that Kuroda has picked the Dodgers over the Mariners.

Others have quoted the P-I as a "source" too. But if you read it (at least the link I was sent to: quotes the "Inland Valley Daily Bulletin" as its source. That's just one of the carbon copies of Tony Jackson's Daily News syndication report, and we already knew that one.

Not much longer to wait to find out for sure. If it's actually happened, it will surely be announced at the children's whatsis event at Dodger Stadium "this morning" where "ruw" Jones is being introduced. I haven't found anywhere that announces what time that event is - does anyone know?

2007-12-12 10:04:15
160.   GMac In The 909
153 His stuff looked pretty good for it being the 8th inning and all. But that last pitch to Matsui made me wonder, "Would he get that call as a first-year MLBer?"
2007-12-12 10:04:27
161.   regfairfield
158 Maybe, his youth is a huge plus but he hasn't shown any dominance at any level above high A.
2007-12-12 10:05:42
162.   overkill94
147 Yikes, was that really necessary from the Astros' standpoint? How do you go from an offer of Burke, Everett, and a pitching prospect to what they gave up?

As long as they didn't have to eat much of Tejada's salary, I'd call this a winner for the Orioles. Scott is a solid corner-OFer (very Ethier-esque) while Albers and Patton are at least interesting young arms. The Costanzo guy's supposedly pretty decent (B- from Sickels) and I've never heard of the other guy.

2007-12-12 10:06:15
163.   LogikReader
GOOGLE.................. is down! At least here, is it down for you too?
2007-12-12 10:08:10
164.   overkill94
154 Eh, he seems to slot right in the middle of those two extremes. The first group is replaceable fodder, the second group is ace-like material, and I'd put Kuroda as above average.
2007-12-12 10:08:55
165.   overkill94
163 no
2007-12-12 10:10:32
166.   regfairfield
163 Works for me.

164 Statisitically, he's pretty close to Jeff Weaver in 2004, just in Japan. It's hard to imagine that translating into that much success in America.

2007-12-12 10:12:06
167.   StolenMonkey86
given Tejada had a down year last year, I like the move for Baltimore. Does it mean anything that Costanzo hit .270/.368/.490 with 27 HR for Reading?
2007-12-12 10:14:27
168.   sporky
163 Down for me, too.
2007-12-12 10:15:19
169.   regfairfield
167 He struckout way too often (once every 3.23 AB) for me to take him seriously.
2007-12-12 10:15:28
170.   fanerman
163 It works for me.
2007-12-12 10:18:52
171.   Don Tordilla
Crasnick on ESPN speculating on Kuroda here:

2007-12-12 10:18:53
172.   sporky
168 Gmail and Blogger are also down for me.
2007-12-12 10:19:45
173.   Robert Daeley
Anyone see the Padres/Jason Bay story?

"Frustrated in their attempts to land outfielders this offseason, the San Diego Padres are deep into discussions with the Pittsburgh Pirates about a multiplayer deal that would be centered around All-Star outfielder Jason Bay."

2007-12-12 10:20:02
174.   MC Safety
Is Kuroda a ground ball pitcher or a fly ball pitcher?
2007-12-12 10:20:14
175.   StolenMonkey86
169 - how much more power would you need to see to take him seriously?
2007-12-12 10:21:14
176.   StolenMonkey86
173- Will Pittsburgh find another player exactly like Bay in the Padres farm system?
2007-12-12 10:23:15
177.   LogikReader
Yep; I knew it. It's just a campus problem. Lame.

I was really hoping that would be down for the entire universe. I live for the day when that happens.

By the way, I just got google back.


The last Japanese starter the Dodgers signed straight from Japan was Kazuhisa Ishii. He had a very short-lived Dodger career and what I remember from him is that he relied on a roundhouse curveball that eventually failed him. Ishii was a walk machine.

Not sure if that's accurate. Nomo's second tour was after he'd arrived here in America.

2007-12-12 10:24:07
178.   regfairfield
175 Ryan Howard level. If you don't have that, I think his upside becomes Russell Branyan.

If you're going to strikeout that much, you need to walk almost as often or you're almost a guarantee for a sub .300 on base percentage in the bigs.

2007-12-12 10:24:33
179.   MC Safety
That Bay article also mentions the Padres having interest in Matt Morris. Make it happen Kevin!
2007-12-12 10:25:02
180.   Andrew Shimmin
My favorite part of the Padres/Bay story is that they might want Matt Morris.
2007-12-12 10:25:38
181.   regfairfield
177 Google is based on a bunch of desktop computers running as a cluster in several locations around the world. Barring an international catasrophe, it's not going down.
2007-12-12 10:25:40
182.   paranoidandroid
Unrelated but...

Radiohead tickets are now on sale thru fan website for the shows in Paris on June 9 and 10th. They also added second shows in Dublin and Milan.

Since there wasn't any serious interest in DT trip to Holland, I'm going to Paris instead since I can see two shows rather than one. Better flyer mile options in June rather than July also.

If interested in hooking up for the show(s)in Paris, post something. I just bought tickets. They are 40 British pounds each with all the fees.

2007-12-12 10:25:45
183.   Andrew Shimmin
2007-12-12 10:27:17
184.   JoeyP
If you sign Kuroda to a 3yr/15 mils a year contract---then thats reasonable.

3yrs/36 mils is insanity for a guy his age and his skill level.

I'm worried that his salary is going to entitle him to many chances to fail, thereby pushing back the chances of McDonald/Kershaw.

Plus, any of Kuroda's salary would be better used in the Brad Penny extension fund, Russ Martin extension fund, or Johan Santana free agent fund, or the "Take Juan Pierre off my hands" fund.

Kuroda (12mils), Loaiza (7mils)--> thats quite a premium for "depth".

Its too bad that in the free agency market, 19mils cant be used to buy something more useful.

2007-12-12 10:27:36
185.   paranoidandroid
180 Let them eat that Matt Morris contract. They traded Bay for the proven power hitting Giles, outbidding us (thankfully) for a guy who lost his power.

Bay's power seems to be diminished a bit, especially if he plays in PetCo.

I hope they resign Tomko too!

2007-12-12 10:27:42
186.   StolenMonkey86
178 - I know that, but what kind of Ryan Howard level? He has a better ISO in a higher league than Howard for his age 23 season.



2007-12-12 10:28:53
187.   StolenMonkey86
not to mention a better walk rate earlier on
2007-12-12 10:30:35
188.   regfairfield
186 Yeah, but Howard made the leap the next year. If Costanzo does that, then he's a worthwhile prospect. If he can't, he's a carrer minor league slugger.
2007-12-12 10:31:19
189.   Sac Town Dodger Fan
Name I want to see in the Mitchell Report

Bret Boone

Seriously, why does no one mention him with Steriods? He is a classic case.

2007-12-12 10:31:25
190.   D4P
3yrs/36 mils is insanity for a guy his age and his skill level

$18 million for Andruw
$13 million for Furcal
$12 million for Schmidt
$12 million for Kuroda
$8 milion for Pierre

All overpaid. By a lot.

2007-12-12 10:33:18
191.   Disabled List
After reading Orioles Hangout for 10 minutes, I have a renewed appreciation for how mellow and level-headed the commenters on DT are.
2007-12-12 10:34:47
192.   Blaine
190 Other than Pierre, was the length of any of those contracts horrible though?
2007-12-12 10:35:38
193.   Matt Conroy
182 - What are the chances of a few Radiohead shows here in the States. Not that I wouldn't love to go to Paris, but the contractor currently tearing my house apart has other plans for my wallet.
2007-12-12 10:35:46
194.   StolenMonkey86
I wonder if a major league hitting coach messed up Russell Branyan. He hit for worse average in the minors after getting called up in 1998. Or did he get injured really badly?
2007-12-12 10:38:09
195.   fanerman
189 When I went to Seattle, I saw a person's truck who had nothing but Bret Boone stickers and decals and vanity license plates. I think the license plate was "LOVES29" (or whatever Boone's Seattle number was). It was rather odd.
2007-12-12 10:38:17
196.   ToyCannon
Looks to me like the Orioles could use a nice young SS. I wonder Hu that could be?
2007-12-12 10:39:17
197.   madmac
184 I hear the Royals are looking for fans.
2007-12-12 10:39:22
198.   paranoidandroid
193 They planned on kicking off the tour in the States in May. They were also supposed to be here in June, but they are already booked in Europe. Seems the plans are in flux. Maybe they will still come here in the spring.

I'm just using the Paris shows as an excuse to go to Europe. Have flier miles, will travel.

They are supposed to be seriously considering South America for the first time also, likely after the European leg. I think they are tired of Asia.

2007-12-12 10:39:31
199.   fanerman
182 If I had a (much) bigger disposable income, I could probably go. But I don't think there's any way I could go to Europe just to see a band, even if that band happens to be Radiohead. I think I'll just have to catch them stateside.
2007-12-12 10:40:25
200.   fanerman
189 Also, I thought Boone was a very common name linked to steroids?
Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2007-12-12 10:42:06
201.   al bundy
Since Jon mentioned it I felt obliged to read the article about Tiger. Among all the other one sentence paragraphs, this one in particular sticks out like a sore thumb. "In a world of Michael Vicks and Barry Bondses, I have come to appreciate Woods not only for what he does, but for what he doesn't do." My take on his meaning is that Plaschke generally dislikes black athletes and is greatly surprised when one exhibits non-delinquent behavior. I don't read Plaschke as a rule, but does he usually demonstrate his racist side so openly?
2007-12-12 10:42:19
202.   Matt Conroy
198 - Thanks. Will have to keep my eye out for new dates. Next thing on the horizon for us is Elvis Costello in Atlantic City on New Year's Eve. That should be a blast. Babysitting all lined up and away we go!
2007-12-12 10:43:05
203.   StolenMonkey86
194 - well, 43 games in the minors in 1998, 1 game in the majors. hmmm . . .
2007-12-12 10:43:19
204.   Eric Stephen
Since the Padres traded Bay (late 2003), they have won 2 division titles in 4 years, and of course lost a wild card playoff in another. (Granted, 2005 was the worst division winning team in MLB history)

Still, I can't help but wonder if the Padres would have been better off keeping Bay & Oliver Perez rather than getting Giles.

Giles with SD:
2782 PA, .281/.385/.445, 124 OPS+, 100 win shares, $32m

Bay with Pit:
2579 PA, .281/.375/.514, 129 OPS+, 89 win shares, $4.66m

Ol.Perez 2004-2007:
588.2 IP, 298/612 BB/K, 99 ERA+, 28 win shares, $5.027m

For the record, I would have traded for Giles in a heartbeat, but it's interesting to think what might have happened if the Padres kept Bay and Perez.

2007-12-12 10:48:55
205.   kinbote
While it's too early to tell if Kuroda's success will translate to MLB, I think he's a good fit in our rotation. Ideally, I'd like a LH in there, but failing that, a relative unknown works too.

I just like the way [on paper], he slots into:

1. Penny
2. Lowe
3. Bills
4. Kuroda
5. Loaiza/Schmidt

His acquisition helps define the top three AND eases some worry about Loaiza/Schmidt expectations.

Looking forward, we lose Lowe & Loaiza after 2008, leaving us with:

1. Penny
2. Bills
4. Kuroda
5. Kershaw

I'm sure we'll be adding a pitcher next offseason or getting some production from McDonald/Elbert/Meloan/Orenduff/Megrew/Miller.

I like this move for now and the future.

2007-12-12 10:52:55
206.   Eric Stephen
Schmidt is under contract for 2009 as well, but of course he is a big injury question mark.
2007-12-12 10:55:13
207.   Sac Town Dodger Fan
200- I was always here about Bonds, Palmero, McGwire etc. but not too much about Boone. His stats around 1999-2002 just skyrocket Do you think Boone gets a free pass as a 3rd generation player?
2007-12-12 10:55:57
208.   kinbote
205 I forgot about him. I guess I'd add him to that maybe pile alongside the prospects. Kuo belongs there too, as do Stults and Houlton, I suppose.
2007-12-12 10:56:11
209.   ishXdavid
Seeing Arcade Fire live gave me a whole new appreciation for the band. There's just something about an eclectic multi-piece band and the energy they bring to their show that gets you.

Radiohead's OK Computer is the seminal album of past decade.

2007-12-12 10:59:40
210.   therickdaddy
Padres re-sign Peavy to 6-year deal and also sign Iguchi. Iguchi will most likely do better than Marcus Giles.
2007-12-12 11:00:11
211.   Bob Timmermann
To answer earlier questions, I have never seen Kuroda pitch. When I've gone to Japan, I've never seen any Japanese pitcher who made it to the majors with the exception of Shingo Takatsu and Akinori Otsuka.

Otsuka was a guy I actually thought would be really good and he wasn't that bad until injuries hit him.

The last time I saw Hiroshima pitch, it was a gaijin starting.

If you ever go to Japan, the two stadiums to go see are Koshien and Hiroshima. They present the most distinctly Japanese baseball experience.

Hiroshima games always have plenty of tickets available. Going to a game at Koshien may require you to deal with yakuza-sponsored scalpers. It's always fun to haggle with mobsters who don't speak the same language as you.

2007-12-12 11:00:31
212.   fanerman
207 I heard Boone pretty often with steroids. I dunno.

Isn't the Mitchell report coming out about now?

2007-12-12 11:00:52
213.   kinbote
So who exactly do we have to decide on tendering contracts to: Hendy, Repko, Brazoban, . . . ?

I hope we keep Brazoban, but the rest are expendable, in the true sense of the word.

(And 208 was meant for 206 ]

2007-12-12 11:01:27
214.   hernari
149 You mean like how Greg Maddux walks a tightrope?
2007-12-12 11:02:27
215.   scareduck
201 - Plaschke is an ass. He colors everything with prejudice, and if you're on his bad side, look out.
2007-12-12 11:03:48
216.   D4P
Isn't the Mitchell report coming out about now?

About 24 hours from about now.

2007-12-12 11:03:55
217.   regfairfield
214 It's okay to be average at strikeouts if you never walk anyone or give up home runs.
2007-12-12 11:05:03
218.   regfairfield
213 I'm thinking Repko, Beimel, Proctor and maybe Hendrickson (depending on if we really are getting Kuroda) get contracts.
2007-12-12 11:06:26
219.   fanerman
216 Aww. I must have misread, and I thought it would be today. Too bad.
2007-12-12 11:06:59
220.   Sam NYC
Best part about signing Kuroda: there is now absolutely no reason to trade Matt Kemp (and, on a related note, all the reason in the world to trade Pierre).
2007-12-12 11:08:13
221.   Jon Weisman
214 - I'm thinking that this guy doesn't have Greg Maddux's talent.
2007-12-12 11:08:27
222.   Eric Stephen
Peavy's deal is a 3-year extension plus an option, sort of. He was already under contract in 2008 plus a 2009 option.

Previous Contract
2008 - $6.5m
2009 - $11m (option picked up as part of new deal)

New Contract
2010 - $15m
2011 - $16m
2012 - $17m
2013 - $22m option ($4m buyout)

Dodgers need to decide by 9pm PST (or is it PDT?) whether to tender contracts to:


2007-12-12 11:10:14
223.   D4P
there is now absolutely no reason to trade Matt Kemp

2007-12-12 11:10:19
224.   hernari
221 Who said he did?
2007-12-12 11:10:57
225.   Sac Town Dodger Fan
Well, at least we agree Boone had to be doing them. I guess I just dont see the mainstream media (ESPN) bring up his name much. They just want to sensationalize Bonds, Vick, and which team Kobe wants to play on. Oh and anything the Red Sox or Yankees do.
2007-12-12 11:11:43
226.   fanerman
223 Touche.
2007-12-12 11:13:27
227.   D4P
Like Plasschke, the media seems to like to focus on the bad things that black athletes do more than white athletes.
2007-12-12 11:14:50
228.   Sam NYC
223 ???
2007-12-12 11:14:57
229.   LogikReader

Man this better not be a Plaschke article...

[clicks the link]


2007-12-12 11:15:06
230.   Kevin Lewis
I just spent some time reading the comments in the Orioles' Hangout. What pending trade are they referring to with the Dodgers? They seem pretty hopeful that we would even give up a lot of talent for Bedard.
2007-12-12 11:15:56
231.   LogikReader

Can you say "double standard?"

2007-12-12 11:16:01
232.   Kevin Lewis

That way he doesn't have to pick it up. He can just kick/push it over towards Kent and it will roll on down the clubhouse.

2007-12-12 11:18:32
233.   Jon Weisman
224 - Well, you're the one making the comparison.
2007-12-12 11:21:06
234.   kinbote
213 Thanks.

I would say Beimel & Proctor are no-brainers [yes], Brazoban a tougher call [still yes], Repko a real tough one [I'll say no], and Hendy an easy decision [heck no!].

These are more my wishes than predictions.

2007-12-12 11:21:09
235.   Jon Weisman
233 - Maybe you weren't meaning to compare them directly. In any case, you pretty much have to be as gifted as Maddux to not have strikeout rate matter. And it's not as if Maddux had a bad strikeout rate in his prime.
2007-12-12 11:21:35
236.   hernari
223 No no no, you want something more like this:

That way Kemp can still technically move the can yet it's location on the floor stays the same. It's a win-win.

2007-12-12 11:21:39
237.   regfairfield
Apparently, we aren't Kuroda's choice.

2007-12-12 11:23:21
238.   kinbote
234 was meant for 222 . I'm banning myself for the rest of the day. Down, overzealous and careless kinbote!
2007-12-12 11:23:54
239.   fanerman
I may have said this before, but I think a trash can should be the official logo of Dodger Thoughts.

Dodger Thoughts: A place to talk about trash cans and the Dodgers.

2007-12-12 11:24:16
240.   paranoidandroid
202 I got to see Elvis kick off the 10/30 tour at the HOB Hollywood this year. He played about 30 songs without saying so much as "hi" and without a break.

Then he played a six song encore.

I thought 125 was steep for a show, but man, it was worth it. I've seen him four times now, but in a small venue, it was really special. And I didn't feel like the oldest guy in the room either.

2007-12-12 11:27:27
241.   hernari
235 If he has decent command, has good movement on his pitches, and is a smart pitcher, then his lack of strikeouts doesn't necessarily mean he will be working a tightrope all season. Although, Kuroda needs to have quite a bit more command than Kazuhisa Ishii (sorry if his name is blasphemy) because the latter had NONE.
2007-12-12 11:28:57
242.   berkowit28
159 There's supposed to be an actual press conference "this morning" during the annual children's party at Dodger Stadium, according to Diamond Leung's P-E blog. (I wonder what the children think of a party that stops for speeches and photo opps...) That's when ruw Jones is being introduced. I'm guessing that Kuroda will be announced then too - if it's for real. Maybe Beimel et al as well.

Does anyone know what time the press conference is?

2007-12-12 11:31:17
243.   Jon Weisman
241 - Maybe so.

New post up top.

2007-12-12 12:20:55
244.   Matt Conroy
240- Yeah he puts on a great show and you always get your money's worth. I saw him play a double set with his band at a little club in Providence about four years ago and it blew my socks off - must have been what it was like in 1978. As close as I'll ever get to it.

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