Thanks bigly to the big efforts of TheBigGrabowski, we have 8 of the 14 AL starting rotations detailed.

Red Sox - Benaiah
Yankees - TheBigGrabowski

Tigers - TheBigGrabowski
Indians - MCSafety
Twins - TheBigGrabowski

Angels - Scareduck
Mariners - TheBigGrabowski
Athletics - TheBigGrabowski

Any volunteers for the remaining six?

Devil Rays -
Blue Jays -
Orioles -
White Sox -
Royals - Eric Stephen
Rangers -

If you're willing, please put your results with the others in this thread:

https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/881690.html

Positions where Dodgers have unambiguous advantage:

C
CL
R2

Positions where DBacks have unambiguous advantage:

LF

After a quick glance, I like the D's chances against the Snakes this year.
So much depends on healthy pitchers, however.

Don't the Snakes have an umambiguous advantage at third base? I like LaRoche's potential, but I have to go with Tracy/Reynolds there.

Looking at those comparisons, I like our chances.

Positions where I would unquestionably swap our guy for theirs, even: 2B, P1, P5

4 You like Reynolds potential over LaRoche's?

4
Not unambiguous enough for me. If LaRoche is allowed to play, I don't see the DBacks necessarily being ahead. If Nomar plays "too much", then the DBacks win.

LaRoche has better potential than Reynolds. Loney is better than Jackson. In fact, as long as Nomar doesn't get the 3B job, LF is probably the only place we are at a disadvantage when it comes to position players. The Diamondbacks really NEEDED Haren to have any HOPE of contending with us.

Of course LaRoche is better than Reynolds. But I'm not convinced that management or his back will let LaRoche play enough, and Nomar is worse than anyone the Snakes run out there. But maybe it's not unambiguous ...

The OBP of both CF's last year were really awful. Jones actually won with a 0.311.

If the Dodgers are close to signing Koruda, it would push Schmidt to the 5 slot.

And while Upton has a huge ceiling, at age 20, in 2008, I am sure he has no chance of being as productive as Kemp in RF. I wouldn't be surprised if Upton is outright "bad," though it's no guarantee.

To me, Upton is the only guy on that team, and one of the few in the league, with an upside that may be higher than Kemp's. It will be interesting over the next few years to see who reaches their potential quicker and stays there longer.

10 Yeah, but I like the Schmidt/Johnson comparison. Both are former aces, aged and coming off of injuries, so they both have the same question marks next to their name.

I think that second base is pretty unambiguously in the Snakes favor. Hudson VORPed eight points less in 40 more plate appearances, but he's one of the best defensive second basemen in the league against one of the worst.

Plus Kent has the whole "could fall of a cliff at any time because he's 40" thing.

5 jeff kent, 2007 OPS+ : 121, career OPS+: 124
orlando hudson, 2007 OPS+: 106, career OPS+: 97

yeah, kent's a statue on defense, and hudson is very good, but we've got abreu, nomar, and laroche to spell him, and kent's gone after this year. hudson, meanwhile, had a career year, and is just 2 years removed from a .315 OBP

Actually, I think this ends up being fairly even if we were just picking teams for this year. Not that anyone cares, but my list of people I would take for this year:

Martin, Loney, Hudson, Furcal, LaRoche, Byrnes, Young, Kemp, Webb, Haren, Lowe, Johnson, Owings, Saito, Broxton, Qualls

It's an 8-8 split right there.

I aggree with that, its just that they will be in the 5 slot. Or I guess you would then match up Koruda with Micha Owings, assuming we can get Koruda. My point is that Loiza will then not be part of the starting 5, I know I just threw out a lot of IFs there...sorry.

from the last thread, i couldn't resist:

*345. D4P
But what of my legendary effect on the fairer sex...? *

you must induce quite a lot of nausea to describe it as "legendary" :)

The UCLA-Idaho State game ended relatively late (around 9 pm I recall) so for a 5-year old, you were up too late, Jon.

Since it was an early round NCAA tournament game, it was shown on a syndicated network back to LA (probably TVS) and was shown on Channel 5.

I should go check the newspaper to see if I'm right.

18
Learn how to use the asterisks properly before you take on the Dizzle 4 Pizzle...

20 it didn't detract from my larger point.

21
I was distracted!

I was way off.

The game was on Channel 4. And it started at 8:15 PT.

So, young man, you were up way past your bedtime. No wonder you were crying.

22 you would be.

19 - I was 9 1/2.

Why do I have this feeling that the NL West is going to be really competitive and the team that wins will have less than 90 wins (because everyone plays each other so much) and all we will hear late in the season is that the NL West just isn't that good. Even though most of the teams will have winning records against the other divisions?

24- He'd better be.

25
Really, I'm unfamiliar with your age. ;-)

OK, 9 1/2 I can understand. I believe the game ended even later because I had to listen to the end of the game on the radio, which in my parents' view, was acceptable rather than staying up watching TV.

In reading the previews of the game in the LA Times, Idaho State was expected to be a very tough opponent for UCLA, which had not played well in its first round win against Louisville. The Brett Vroman-Steve Hayes matchup was not expeted to favor UCLA and it didn't.

Brett Vroman matchups against anyone rarely favored UCLA.

Gig Sims was certainly no help.

I'd like someone to give their take on Upton v. Kemp and Furcal v. Drew.

28 I believe the game ended even later because I had to listen to the end of the game on the radio, which in my parents' view, was acceptable rather than staying up watching TV.

What was their reasoning (or substitute for reasoning)?

Fun With Stats:

2006-2007 (per 9 IP)

Dan Haren: 8.85 H, 4.04 R, 3.59 ER, 2.02 BB, 7.43 K, 1.11 HR, .252/.296/.412 opp, 120 ERA+
C.Billingsley: 8.47 H, 3.76 R, 3.49 ER, 4.63 BB, 7.59 K, 0.84 HR, .253/.346/.381 opp, 130 ERA+

32

So what you're saying is that we could have gotten a comparable package for Billingsley?

GIT ER DONE NED!

31- I'd bet the radio he listened to the end of the game was in his bedroom. Parents make up all kinds of funny rules to get kids out of the way.

Ironically, one of my favorite sports moments was when Adam Morrison was writheing on the floor when UCLA beat Gonzaga. Everytime I watch it on youtube, it gives me a warm feeling.

33
Ha! Very nice.

The key for me in 2008 is to not waste our advantage of the top three starters. If we can get roughly league average numbers from the other 65-70 starts, we will win the division.

The Rockies got 155 starts last year from pitchers whose lowest ERA+ was 97 (Fogg was 97, no one else was lower than 100).

After the 85 starts by the Dodgers' big three in 2007, the best ERA+ of anyone making a start was 97 (Wolf), and no one else was higher than 89.

35
I hated that game because if Gonzaga would have won that game (which they seemed to have in hand) I would have won three different office pools (none of which involved Rick Neuheisel).

The Irony Commission rejects that submission.

32 Why is it that Haren had a higher H/9 but a lower BAA? Oh, wait, I got it! Because Chad has fewer ABs/9 because he induces more double plays.

34
Andrew has the essence of the policy correct. My older brothers continued to watch the game on TV in the kitchen.

According to the boxscore in the LA Times, Bartow started Gig Sims at center and brought Vroman off the bench, but they played a combined 14 minutes. Greenwood played 40 minutes, Johnson played 39 minutes, and Kiki Vandeweghe played the balance of the time in the front court.

I have a feeling that the Bruins would have been run off the court in the next round by UNLV if they had won.

At #327 in the previous thread Andrew typed a single-sentence paean: "there should be a holiday devoted to pastrami."

So who's bought a block of the stuff from the grocery store and been able to cook it in such a way that it comes out the way you get it at a deli? And if you've succeeded, what cooking method did you use?

39.
There were several reports that the A's were having a "medical meeting" last week, to decide their trading directions on team players. That would make me a little nervous, if we were trading with them 2 days later. Well, alot nervous.

The importance of having non-crap after Penny/Billingsley/Lowe:

2007 Starts Not Made By The Big 3™
77 starts
398.2 IP (5.18 per start)
10.45 H/9
3.52 BB/9
6.84 K/9
1.15 HR/9
5.71 ERA
80 ERA+
Team Record: 30-47

If Kuroda, Schmidt, Loaiza, etc can provide anything close to league average (4.57 ERA in Dodger Stadium in 2007) the Dodgers will be in great shape.

I know its a long shot, but if we could get an allowance for payroll, a handshake deal with Furcal on a 2-3 year extension would allow us to go for the gold.

Santana wants an extension in order to waive his no-trade. If he agrees to come here, trade Kershaw with Hu, Dewitt, Pierre and fillers to Minnesota.

Santana is what we hope Minetaur will be. Santana would be locked up for 6 years while the following contracts expire
Lowe, Loaiza after 2008
Penny, Schmidt after 2009
Kuroda after 2010...
Santana, Bills constant and Elbert/Mcdonald can help replace two of the three spots over the next couple of years.

I'm of the belief that Kershaw will never be more highly rated than he is right now and therefore his downside risk due to injury or lack of final development.

(continued) is huge. He's the best LHP in the game. Its only down from here.

(ducks under table).

LHP=LH prospect.

Are we not past the "Let's Get Santana!" stuff yet? Really, part of me is surprised nobody is pushing to get Miguel Cabrera in a trade anymore (notwithstanding that he has already been traded), so accustomed had I become to wading through those kinds of posts.

Immense respect for your contributions here CanuckD, but MCAB was not rumored to go to Detroit. I'm just being logical here on December 15th. With Kuroda and AJones in place, the Dodgers would be in position to offer the best package with the least disruption to our big league squad.

The Danny Haren deal is setting the market in motion. It wouldn't surprise me if it did go down. Its a bit more thought through than "Lets get Santana"...

Following up a bit on 44 , the Dodgers are bound to improve their pitching just by having Billinsgley start for a full season.

I looked at all five NL West teams, and separated each starting staff by the top 3 starters (measured by 2007 IP) and the rest. The Dodgers had the least starts and IP among the top 3 starters, even though they collectively were the best:

Top 3 Starters
D-Backs: 100 GS (58-42, .580), 633.1 IP, 4.01 ERA, 117 ERA+
Padres: 98 GS (58-40, .592), 594.1 IP, 3.24 ERA, 125 ERA+
Giants: 91 GS (39-52, .429), 551.2 IP, 4.05 ERA, 110 ERA+
Rockies: 88 GS (47-41, 534), 545 IP, 4.43 ERA, 108 ERA+
Dodgers: 85 GS (52-33, .612), 518.1 IP, 3.44 ERA, 133 ERA+

Compounding the Dodgers' problems in 2007 was the fact that they had really bad pitching from "the rest" of the rotation (San Diego was worse) in the most IP:

The Rest
Dodgers: 77 GS (30-47, .390), 398.2 IP, 5.71 ERA, 80 ERA+
Rockies: 75 GS (43-32, .573), 398.1 IP, 4.79 ERA, 100 ERA+
Giants: 71 GS (32-39, 451), 417 IP, 4.49 ERA, 99 ERA+
Padres: 65 GS (31-34, .477), 340.2 IP, 5.63 ERA, 72 ERA+
D-Backs: 62 GS (32-30, .516), 324.2 IP, 4.66 ERA, 101 ERA+

Looking at the NL West rotations has really underscored the purpose of including more than five pitchers in the analysis of starting rotations. The 5 NL West teams employed the following (Byung-Hyun Kim gets counted twice as both a D-Back & Rockie) in 2007:

53 different starting pitchers
40 with 5+ starts
29 with 10+ starts
20 with 20+ starts
10 with 30+ starts

50
David Wells & Brett Tomko also each counted twice in 2007, as they each pitched for SD & LA.

49 -- I don't want to insult you, but I really believe that calls to "Get the Best Pitcher (or Hitter) In baseball!" just smack of fantasy baseball fanboyism, especially in the absence of any talk that one's favorite team is actually considering such a move. When the Dodgers were showing interest in Cabrera, I didn't say anything about the "Cabrera chatter," though I made my own feelings about Cabrera known. But now, Santana is clearly the last player on the Dodgers' minds, so it's irksome to see a Dodger fan barking up that tree. I expect that sort of thing out of Plaschke, frankly. "Oooh, Arizona, got Haren! The Dodgers have to 'one-up them' now or they don't wanna win! Who one-ups Haren? Santana!" The Dodgers say they're going to stay the course? Then stay the course, which means the opposite of cashing in young talent with their best years ahead of them for celebrity ball players who became celebrities with greater years behind them than they probably have in front of them. Honestly, Kershaw's next six years are apt to be better than Santana's next six. You obviously don't believe that, but I do.

We got Kuroda per Jackson.

http://www.insidesocal.com/dodgers/archives/2007/12/kuroda_agrees_t.html

I can't wait to see how this new theory of handling Canuck works. Does the offense (favoring a big trade) get forgiven for a few nice words, or is that interpreted as a sign of weakness?

I'm on pins and needles, here.

Rats. Should have refreshed.

Looks like a little of each. Interesting.

Re: 53

I'm a happy man, now. Hopefully Torre will realize during ST that Pierre playing as a regular LF is preposterous.

WWSH

52 Kershaw's next six years are apt to be better than Santana's next six

I don't believe that at all, however I agree with your overall point.

If Kershaw is somewhere close to Santana's neighborhood in performance, he'll be so cheap (making likely $100 million less than Santana), the extra money saved will (in theory) allow the Dodgers to upgrade in other areas (other players, international scouting, etc).

More NL starting rotation depth numbers...

In 2007, the average NL team used:

10.7 starters
8 pitchers with 5+ starts
6 pitchers with 10+ starts
3.8 pitchers with 20+ starts
2.3 pitchers with 30+ starts

Has Camille johnson's firing (resignation) been discussed already?

I'm glad Kuroda is in the fold.

The Arms build up in the NL West continues!

How is it that these other teams (Detroit,DBacks)can accomplish these trades for upper level talent without giving up anything significant from their 25 man roster.

VICTORY! VICTORY!

Penny
Bills
Lowe
Kuroda
Schmidt/Loaiza

61
Because the Dodgers don't have an OF prospect outside of Xavier Paul, and the teams wanted an OF in return is my only guess. As a result, Kemp had to be included for the other teams (Florida, Baltimore) to trade their star.

61 we're the dodgers. we have to overpay for everything, naturally.

30
I'd take Upton over Kemp. The only season where Kemp would have an advantage is 2008 and I wouldn't even be betting on that. Pecota should bear this out come Jan when they show their future forecasts. I'm just not convinced that Kemp is going to be something special while I'm convinced Upton is. One thing for certain the Diamondbacks have 3 legitimate centerfielders playing in the outfield. Each has a strong arm, each has speed, and each has power. OBP is achilles heal.

I see more of a comparison between Kemp and Young, then Kemp and Upton. Kemp can match Young in speed, and possibly power while Young is head and tails above him as a defensive center fielder. Kemp should get on base at a much higher clip. I'd rather have Young or Upton then Kemp.

I'd also rather have Young then A Jones from this point on.

If anyone is unimpressed with Upton because of his major league stats at the age of 19/20 they are looking at him with blinders.

For 2008 I'd take Furcal but you have to hope that Furcal plays like 2006 and Drew plays like 2007 instead of 2006. Furcal has the defense, the speed, while Drew has the power and the low cost contract. This will probably be the last year that Drew falls short of Furcal.

I don't get the arguement that others have put forth that the Diamondbacks window is now because our kids will blow by them. We have nothing like a Justin Upton. Kemp and Young should be even over the next 4 years but Upton will be a super star after 2008.
For a guy with an excellent eye, Conor Jackson gets short shift around here. It is no slam dunk that Loney is the better hitter. Before everyone gets to giddy about Loney's Sept, just take a look at what Steven Drew did in Sept of 06 and then what he followed that up with.
Why does everyone think a future infield of Loney/Abreu/Hu/LaRoche/Martin and an outfield of Kemp/Jones/Pierre,Ethier has more upside then Jackson/Hudson/Drew/Reynolds/Montero and Upton/Young/Byrnes?

Nailing down Haren for the next 3 years will go a long way in addressing their pitching needs.

And I'll take Orlando Hudson 7 days a week over Jeff Kent in 2008.

For 2008
1st - Push
2nd - Arizona
SS - Dodgers
3rd - If LaRoche then Dodgers, if Nomar then Dodgers because he'll only keep the job if he is dealing
C - Dodgers in a landslide
RF - Dodgers
CF - Push
LF - Push if it is Ethier but it swings substantially to the Diamonbacks if it is Pierre.

52 That might be going a bit too far. I agree with most of your posts, but Kershaw is hardly gauranteed to become Santana. Obviously i might get my head bitten off here, but arent there some control issues with Kershaw? Add that to not having pitched in AAA yet, and that conclusion is a little outlandish. Santana has been nothing short of dominating in a much tougher AL. Santana only gets better with a switch to the NL imo.

64

Apparently including Carp!

We have nothing like a Justin Upton.

They don't have any mythical beasts!

67
Seriously. "$36 to $40 million" is more than the $30 million I was expecting.

Maybe Kuroda got mad when he realized last season was the Dodgers' 50th year in LA, and that 2008 only celebrates the anniversary.

The crux of my point was when you hear a 20 year old is "the best pitching prospect in 25 years" or whatever, and he's not scratched AAA, he's fully priced and has significant downside.

Canuck, frankly your argument regarding Kershaw only holds water if he was only reasonably valued for what he is. A prospect. He ain't undervalued and therefore must accomplish an awful lot just to justify his PRESENT DAY value.

Someone's gonna get Santana. He's seriously on the block. And the main players can't get a deal done. We've spoken to Minnesota, Baltimore. For every reason why someone has to go to the AL or the two East powerhouses, I can give you benefits for sending him to the opposite league in a town with the biggest Hispanic population.

Its a rational idea and possible, not a Plaschke-like knee jerk response to Haren, and therefore, wrong idea. I think the market is setting in at a more reasonable level given the Fla and Oak deals.

Although finding a closer is not a hard thing to do, Arizona's strength was in their "good" bullpen pitchers holding on to very small leads last year.

While Lyon maybe able to do the job, now everyone else moves up one spot, that does not always work out.

I'm sure the D-Backs feel that their offense will score more runs next year but it remains to be seen if they will do so well in close games as they did in 2007.

70
It is a moot point. With the signings of Jones and Kuroda, the Dodgers could not afford Johan Santana unless they unloaded Lowe and Pierre.

I'd rather take the chance on the next 6 years of Kershaw and Kemp/LaRoche instead of paying Santana 25 Million over the next 6 years from the ages of 30-35. I understand that Santana is a sure thing compared to Kershaw, but sometimes the surprise is better then the known quantity.
That said I understand the thinking of those who want Santana and I don't see the need for anyone to be chastised for such an opinion.

It is not like were discussing the Mitchell report.

JON:::I notice you have Ethier in left field with Pierre and Kemp in LF alone. Are you assuming that Ethier is now the 4th OF?

The chance that the 2007 D'backs bullpen could do the same thing ever again was somewhere in between the chances of D4P's getting a Nobel prize for Fashion and five or more of Zappala's kids doing serious federal time for racketeering.

So who gets Santana?

We'll see how it plays out.

With or without Pierre, its been a good off season if you like our youth, like not losing draft picks and such.

Nate wanted AJones and Kuroda, so its good with me.

I would not be the least bit surprised if Schmidt is best served for the bullpen when/if he comes back. But Canuck is right, a rotation with Santana and Kuroda as the 5 is fantasy-esque. Maybe Ned panicks who knows, but so far this offseason he has made it quite clear ML guys arent getting traded. I would love to see it done at the right price obviously, but at this point its a pipe dream.

71
Qualls keeps Lyons from moving up. The GM would not have dealt Velverde if he didn't think Pena/Qualls couldn't do the same job Valverde/Pena did. I think it was a great deal, if Hudson walks during his FA year they now have his replacement. The GM knows he can find another relief pitcher, finding another 2nd baseman won't be so easy.
Burks may not work out but before they screwed him up with the Biggio crap he looked ready to be a solid major league 2nd baseman.
I'm getting a lot of respect for the Arizona GM.

77- He's the second coolest Byrnes associated with the team.

If I had written 10 weeks ago that the Dodger roster will add a probable 20-30 HR legit CF and another starter(not named Silva/Lohse), withstood trade offers, and replaced Grady with a pretty good manager, would most here sign off on that kind of off-season.

73 - I'm assuming that Kemp will get more playing time than Ethier, but I really don't know how Torre would deploy them.

42 Linkmeister, what's the best deli in Hawaii? When was the last time you had "pastrami?" Just curious.

Ken Gurnick makes it look ALMOST like a sure thing that Kuroda will sign with us. I sure hope he's right. It would save a lot trouble AND players down the line.

82 That's old news. Kuroda agreed to terms this morning.

Thank you for #80

79
Other then not having MCAB on the roster after seeing what Detroit gave up for him I am still very happy with this off season.
1. A Jones is our center fielder, I can't even describe how happy that made me. Back in the winter of 1974 the Dodgers traded for my favorite player and in the winter of 2007 they just signed one of my favorite players. Jon asked once who was going to be our Jimmy Wynn, and I stand here before you saying he is here.
2. LaRoche is still here and destined to be our 3rd baseman at some point in 2008.
3. Kershaw is still here
4. Kuo has so far survived

If we go into the season with the current team, we are loaded with chips if we need to improve the team. We can only hope that Elbert repairs his reputation, McDonald continues his rapid ascent, and that Morris can come back 100%.

I got my Dodger Invoice today for 2008. There will not be any hesitation this year in sending out that check.

Also this off-season shows that right now, the injuries to Scott Elbert and Bryan Morris have affected the Dodgers ability to make moves.

If Elbert had another good year, while he would have been in the mix for the Dodger's staff (heck, he could have pitched in LA in 2007 had he been healthy), he certainly would have been a tempting player to counter the non-tradeable Kershaw. Also, a fine year for Morris would have given him trade value.

It also seems that the glut of 3B prospects, LaRoche, DeWitt, and Bell was not has appealing as young outfielders.

75 Basically, I agree with Canuck in that I don't believe we'll get Santana.

But I do agree the market is getting more reasonable. If the Twins find themselves looking for a suitor in the next two months and come to Ned with a favorable offer, I hope he listens. Santana is a known quantity, a difference-making pitcher.

Haren's trade only signals to me that the market is not as steep as it looked three weeks ago. It's not about keeping up with the Joneses. It's about noticing the prices on iPhones are dropping.

The cheap/under our control argument does not matter here nearly as much as it does elsewhere. Kershaw is a great prospect. Megaballs is correct in his assessment of the potential downside risk. It's a near certainty that four of Santana's next six seasons will be dominating. How do you argue otherwise? Nothing like that can be said of Kershaw yet.

Still, I would only suggest the Dodgers participate if the price is right. Where I would have to draw the line is at Kemp, not Kershaw. We don't have outfielders to spare.

85 It does sort of look like 1974. The Little Blue Bicycle rolls again :-)

Bottom line for me, we got our pitcher without losing Kemp or Ethier. By summer, Pierre will be the fourth outfielder. LaRoche at third. Young talent in the fold.

88 Except I'm not in high school anymore.

Nor me.

In 1974 I was in 10th grade. My Mom let me cut school so I could stand in line for World Series tickets. I was near the front of the line so I could get any game I wanted. Feeling it would be a tough series I got tickets for games 6 and 7.

33 years later I've never been to a world series game.

87 It's a near certainty that four of Santana's next six seasons will be dominating. How do you argue otherwise?

If we have learned anything in sports, it is that "nothing" is a near certainty! You argue that by simply stating, "past performances are not a guarantee for future performance".

Nothing like that can be said of Kershaw yet.

True! Nor of anyone else either.

90 - But you can talk about how cool your mom was. Silver lining.

90
You can write a sentimental piece about your mom and World Series tickets.

Trust me, there won't be a dry eye in the house.

Mediocre pitchers in Japan get 36 million dollars now? Wow, what's Kyle Lohse worth now?

Takashi Saito was a mediocre pitcher in Japan. 87-80 with an ERA of 3.80. Kuroda had a lower ERA at 3.69.

95 keiichi yabu had a career 3.57 ERA in japan. granted, he came over when he was 36 instead of 33, but still.

I'm still using the Jamie Moyer rule on Saito until someone proves otherwise.

97 jamie moyer is a lefty and throws junk. saito is a righty with a 94-mph fastball and a devastating slider.

though, i suppose i should ask... what's the rule

97
What is the Jamie Moyer rule?

Rule 1 of the Jamie Moyer Club:
Never ask about the Jamie Moyer Club.

81 There are few if any good delis in Hawai'i. The closest pastrami source to me is Subway or Quiznos, which tells you how awful it is out here.

That's why I asked the question; I see blocks of it for sale at Safeway, and I wondered how it might be prepared.

Saito and Moyer are about the same size, other than that I'm lost.

ZIPS 115 ERA+!!!

I might need to change my name to uphold the Kuroda battlecry.

SILVER WIDOW; How comes there is no indication about Kuroda on the Dodger Website? not counting the Blogs.

92
True, it was one of the few notes I ever took to the office that had her real signature.

97 - The rule, if I understand right, is Don't Count on Repeating Miracles.

Saito's Dodger performance is a miracle, based on his Japanese stats.

105 - Because it hasn't been made official.

I think the Rockies should go after Bedard.

They have the pieces to make it work without disrupting their core.

Morales
Ian Stewart
Dexter Fowler/Greg Reynolds

Based on looking at Kuroda's webpage, some of those millions may end up with Furcal. He seems rather invested in #15.

http://www.kuro15.com/index.html

107 - But to add onto that thought... my assumption about Saito was that his ERA would go up a run (because of his age and the transfer) and therefore he would be useless. I don't have quite the same grim forecast in my mind about Kuroda.

If things go badly for Hiroki, though, I will call him the Kuroded Artery.

Moyer was a once in a generation success in that he was a crappy left handed pitcher and figured it all out when most pitchers are doing play by play and keeping qualified professional broadcasters stuck in the minor leagues.
I think Andrew feels the same way about Saito so it is unfair to use him as a comparison since it may never happen again.

111

Why do things have to go badly? That's a great nickname.

The Moyer rule is that you can't compare anyone to that player because it was a miracle. Every terrible left handed pitcher gets compared to Jamie Moyer now, but Jamie Moyer isn't going to happen again.

109
They have pieces but I'd say the chances are nill that Bedard would resign with them so they would be better off getting what they can from their own pitching kids.
They'd be better off trading hitting since it should be easy to convince a hitter to come to Coors.

Or, what TC said.

104 ZIPS also missed badly on Igawa and Matsuzaka, so I wouldn't get too excited.

113 - I guess because whenever I hear about someone's corroded artery, it means something has gone badly for them.

I will be the lone holdout for "Kuroda's Court."

I think my family must have been the only ones in the U.S. who watched the TV show inspiring the name. We loved our NBC midseason fillins of the late 1970s.

111
It is great that we already have a nickname ready for him in case he's a bust.

I just went to this cool place called Pizza Paul's some time back. Any LA guys familiar with place? Right off Melrose at the 101. They had a nice pastrami sandwich, but the 80's era autographed pictures sealed the deal. Cool little non-descript family joint.

119
Semper paratus!

117 Carotid artery?

*nondescript.

One of the joys of growing up exactly when I did was that you didn't have to bother with faking notes. You just had to make sure the phone line was busy when the autodialer called to rat you out. Dialup internet got me out of more trouble than it got me into.

107 yeah, but he was a starter in japan and he pitches for only an inning most of the time here. i'm sure he wouldn't post sub-2.00 ERAs for the dodgers as a starter, but his success as a reliever isn't exactly a miracle, given the quality of his pitches, at least for an inning or two at a time. and he's done it for 2 years in a row now, so it's not like it was some crazy one-off event. and he's in his mid-30s, which isn't young, to be sure, but he's not exactly defying age in the same way that moyer or say, clemens and bonds have been.

the jamie moyer rule does not apply.

111 if he's as reliable and consistent as they say he will be, i wouldn't mind calling him "toyota" kuroda.

126 i hope people don't take that in a racist way. kuroda (in an american accent) sounds kinda like corolla to me. and corollas are reliable.

125 In Saito's age 36 season, he put up middle reliever type numbers. He's now arguably the best closer in baseball. I'd say that's a miracle.

The fact that it wasn't a crazy one-off event is what makes it a miracle. I'm not comparing the guy to Jamie Moyer, I'm just saying that you can't say "well, look at what Saito did" much like you can't use the same thing for Moyer.

K iller K arp K uroda

on second thought...

I'm guessing nobody is really surprised we signed Kuroda right.

I read a couple chapters of the Plaschke book the other day, at a Borders. Not to cast any aspersions, but some guy who promised to read the book so that I wouldn't have to didn't pull some of the quotes he might have. Like: "Tommy Lasorda is baseball's Santa Claus, and Americans are clamoring for his lap."

105 108 Well, now it is up on dodgers.com, although there's still no official announcement - it's just Gurnick quoting "sources" (and explicitly saying it's not official). Must be a pretty sure thing for him to feel safe doing that, though.

125 - It was a miracle. There isn't a person in America who would have believed, even being used one inning at a time, that Saito could do what he has done. You're using hindsight to argue it wasn't a miracle.

122 - Of course, you're right.

102 No delis?

Hawai'i sure sounds like a nice place, but calling it paradise is going too far if there are no delis.

I believe "kuro" in Japanese means "black."

I could be completely wrong.

132 - I'm sure it's happening, but I don't feel a pressing need to post that it has happened until it has happened.

From Gurnick

His signing helps counter the Friday acquisition of Dan Haren by the Arizona Diamondbacks and allows Dodgers management to consider acquiring a veteran third baseman.

How?

133
So are you saying that Vishal experienced miraculous healing of his hindsight?

135

Then 129 would be even more appropriate.

109
The Rockies would be foolish to give up Morales. Jimenez is the guy they should sell high on. Great stuff, but he has walked a ton of guys throughout his career. He is kind of like Daniel Cabrera.

133 okay, nobody expected him to be the best closer in baseball, but you can watch him pitch and it's not exactly smoke and mirrors.

Should we start Meloan and McDonald in the Vegas rotation or Jacksonville rotation next year?

141 - It looks that way now, but why wasn't he getting the job done in Japan?

All I'm saying is that to expect a Japanese player to improve his stats as much as Saito did at Saito's age isn't prudent. That's all. The last thing I'm trying to do is put Saito down.

Why does Gurnick have to ruin everything with more veteran 3rd baseman talk?

We have a veteran 3rd baseman. He sucks. We don't need another.

I say Hiroki Kuroda's nickname should be "Uncle June".

"Kershaw's next six years are apt to be better than Santana's next six"

Canuck, I have read your posts about our young players in the minor league. I'm not sure how you get them, but they are very insightful. Posters on this board say things like "Kershaw is the best LHP prospect of the last 25 yrs", but when you say something like that, it does make me wonder more.

Is Kershaw really one of the best pitching prospects to ever come out of the Dodger system in a long time? Is he by far better than Edwin Jackson back when he was our #1 pitching prospect a few years ago?

I have never seen Kershaw pitch. I have read that he is our top pitching prospect, but cannot distinguish how he might be different than Jackson, Miller or Elbert when they were thought of so highly. This is the reason why I was hoping we went hard after Haren provided we don't give up Kemp. I felt the "sure thing" is still better than the "potential" esp given Haren's ridiculously low contract.

Btw, I don't feel we should go after Santana, not b/c of Kershaw, but b/c of how much Santana would cost salary wise.

143 that's kind of a strawman, though. nobody's expecting him to "improve", or dominate; they're expecting a competent 3rd or 4th starter, tops.

You gotta love the Orioles hangout.

Check out this trade idea titled "Realistic Dodgers Trade"

Realistic Dodgers trade?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bedard plus Huff and Scott for

Pierre, Ethier, Billingsley, Hu, Kershaw, LaRoche

Edit: so, it is basically Bedard for Billinglsey, Hu and Ethier and then Huff and Scott for Pierre, Kershaw and LaRoche...which practically works as Scott and 18 million or so for Kershaw and LaRoche.

----------------------------------------------------------

That is comical. At least the sane Oriole fans put this guy in his place. Thought you guys might get a kick out of it.

147 in fact, when bob put out saito's stats, i put up a guy with better NPB results (yabu) who had done quite poorly in the majors, because i was trying to say, it's hard to tell what's gonna happen.

147 - I'm confident that there are some people out there that are using Saito to boost their optimism about Kuroda, but fair enough.

This conversation started with Regfairfield calling Kuroda mediocre - I still think that's a defensible statement. But we'll see.

145- You think he's going to shoot Colletti?

Excellent news! We went to visit my Mom today, and came home to the good news. Sure glad we got him, and the M's didn't pull it out at the last minute or something. I have a feeling Kuroda's going to be much better than many think, too. It's a happy day in Dodger-land.

142.
If
1/Penny
2/Lowe
3/Bills
4/Kuroda
5/Loaiza/Schmidt
and after 2 years you only have
Billz and Kuroda

I say you move Meloan to starter in Vegas and put McDonald/Elbert/Kershaw in Jacksonville to build chemistry and slow track them...we'll need 'em in '08 , '09.

Truth is, I'd rather have you answer the question...

I think they overpaid for Kuroda, but in all other respects, I'm not complaining. Colletti has done a very acceptable job this winter, not selling our youth away. And Gurnick's veteran 3B comments are just dumbfounding. Should we be surprised though? He's still on the Beltre bandwagon, and will probably claim that we should get Rolen even though he and Bowa would never work. Our veteran 3B is Nomar, and LaRoche will fill in, if not take over probably even in '08.

Will the signing of Kuroda be considered a success if he can log over 130 innings with a sub 5.00 era this season?

155 i doubt it. for $12-13 mill per, i'd want at least 150 innings and around a 4.00-ish ERA. something along the lines of what micah owings did last year, minus the hitting.

155
Yes. See 50 .

155 - I'd ask for at least sub-4.50. Although some will tell you it's a success as long as Kemp and Kershaw are still in the organization come Opening Day.

Well I saw it in blue on the website and read it, Gurnick confirms what Tony Jackson claimed on Kuroda. It is now a little more believable. I can't wait for the Dodger announcement. Good Luck on the physical.

Kuroda is a groundball pitcher correct? I think his 4 pitch arsenal has potential. Could his mediocre record be contributed to his bad team?

155 If the Dodgers can make it through the season with 5 guys making 95% of starts, that would be a successful season.

154 Are we over paying for Kuroda or are we buying short term flexibility?

159 - I don't think you need to be on pins and needles.

With the signing of Kuroda I have a couple of questions.

What can be done to stop the RIDICULOUS rise in prices for these players? The fact that a potential 4th starter can make 12-13 million dollars a year (more than the highest paid NFL player) upsets me with each signing. I know a cap has been toyed with but I don't see that ever coming. Something needs to be done as with each signing I become more disgusted with the game of baseball. What do you guys think?

Next, Kuroda brings back the memories of Kaz Ishii, the former Dodger pitcher who everyone remembers for his lack of control. I remember watching him pitch (it seemed every game I went to he pitched back when he was on the team) and seeing that he would give up 1 or 2 hits through 6 innings but allow a million base runners on walks. My cousin and I had this theory but we have never had the resources to research it so I was wondering if anyone thought along these lines. It seemed as if whenever Ishii had an extra day of rest (pitching every sixth day) he was unhittable. He was legitimately a SOLID pitcher when given one extra day of rest. I was wondering if anyone else had noticed it, if it is even true, and if it is true why Dodger management NEVER saw this. To me it seemed pretty obvious that whenever he had an extra day, it translated to a quality start and then some. Has anyone else ever noticed this?

And one more thing, what is the status on Kuo? What do you guys think?

164 - The sport is making more money than ever, so one could argue that a lot of players are underpaid.

What do you guys think?

Blame the increasing popularity of baseball. Reason why Kuroda can get 36mil is because MLB baseball as a whole is making bank. Everyone involved is getting paid so I would rather have the players get it than the owners horde it under their stadium like a troll.

164
For starters, Major League Baseball had revenues of $6 BILLION last year.

That's $6,000,000,000.

Three commas!

And that's just what the owners admit to.

Anybody know what percentage of the revenue goes to pay player salaries? Over 50%? Over 60%?

164 If the owners are willing to pay, why shouldn't the players be willing to receive?

Next, Kuroda brings back the memories of Kaz Ishii, the former Dodger pitcher who everyone remembers for his lack of control.

Well, Kuroda pitches with the opposite hand and is known for his control. So I don't know how he reminds you (or anyone) of Ishii.

25 man Roster as of 12/15/07

P Brad Penny
P Derek Lowe
P Chad Billingsley
P Hiroko Kuroda
P Estaban Loiaza
P Joe Beimel
P Scott Proctor
P Jonathan Broxton
P Takeshi Saito
Other possible pitchers include Jason Schmidt, Yhency Brazoban, Hong-Chih Kuo, Jonathan Meloan, Rudy Seanez. At least 2 more pitchers will be added.

C Russell Martin
C yet unsigned

1B James Loney
2B Jeff Kent
SS Rafael Furcal
3B Nomar Garciaparra
3B Andy LaRoche
U Tony Abreu or Wilson Valdez
OF Andruw Jones
OF Juan Pierre
OF Matt Kemp
OF Andre Ethier
OF Delwyn Young

If the Dodgers go with 11 pitchers, they will have one more spot for another infield b/u probably lefty PH type.

I put Young on the roster because he is out of options.

Kuroda doesn't even have an Ishii-like beard.

http://tinyurl.com/3dpu5y

170
You didn't have to make Kuroda a girl. ;-)

Did LaRoche welsh on a bet with Gurnick? Did he kill Gurnick's dog or something? Man does he hate LaRoche.

{164](Pitching every sixth day)
This is an interesting point for me.
It seems that somewhere early in the discussion regarding Kuroda, it was mentioned that the pitchers in Japan star every sixth day. Is this true?
This was what led me to 130 innings rather than 140+. I think that 150 + innings would be remarkable.

167 Based on published amounts, last year teams paid out approximately 2.5 billion in salaries or just over 40% of the revenues released by MLB. Both the NFL and NBA pay out about 60% of revenues in player salaries.

It's official. Press conference Sunday.

167
Jeff Passan claimed 2007 salaries were "$2,478,970,000 – about 41.3 percent of the gross revenues"

http://tinyurl.com/2kgumv

175 Of course, in the NFL and NBA, one team doesn't pay out (and probably make) as much as the Yankees do in MLB. Mostly because the Yankees get all of their local media revenues while sharing in the national TV contract and MLB.com revenues.

174
For the most part, Japanese pitchers are on 6-man rotations. Each league plays only 6 days a week. One league usually takes Mondays off and another takes Thursdays off. And there are a lot of rainouts too.

Japanese teams are allowed to keep what is essentially a taxi squad of players around, I believe it's around five or six players. So after a starting pitcher takes his turn, he is deactivated and a new starter takes his place. If a reliever isn't available because he pitched too much in one game, he's deactivated and a fresh arm comes up.

In the league Kuroda pitched in, the Central League, managers don't have to name their starting pitchers ahead of time. So they will mix and match their starters depending upon whom they think they will be facing from the other team.

177 I did it the old fashioned way, adding it up from the salaries posted on CBS Sportsline.com I also rounded the numbers.

New post up top.

157
Thanks, if Kuroda can be a reliable fourh starter, I think the Dodgers will be in great shape.
Last season when Wolf broke down, it just put too much pressure on the rest of the pitching staff.

Obviously, I want our new starter from Japan to be a star.

161 If the Dodgers can make it through the season with 5 guys making 95% of starts, that would be a successful season

That would be outstanding!

Here are the starts made by the top 5 pitchers for each NL club in 2007:

Chi - 152 (93.8%)
SD - 143 (87.7%)
Ari - 139 (85.8%)
Mil - 137 (84.6%)
SF - 136 (84.0%)
NY - 133 (82.1%)
Atl - 133 (82.1%)
Hou - 131 (80.9%)
Fla - 131 (80.9%)
Cin - 129 (79.6%)
Pit - 127 (78.4%)
StL - 125 (77.2%)
Phi - 123 (75.9%)
Col - 122 (74.8%)
LA - 118 (72.8%)
Was - 103 (63.6%)

179 That is a great explanation, thanks.

179 i actually think that setup sounds awesome.

135 Bob Timmermann
I believe "kuro" in Japanese means "black."

You are correct, sir. 黒田 means "black field."

And yeah 170 , "Hiroko" is a girl's name.

183- I'm wary of complimenting you (I'm still sore about that your top ten), but I've really enjoyed this thread of research you've done. Thanks for doing it.

There are a few delis, but none within ten miles of me, and none feel right to me. There needs to be a scent, an aroma to a good deli, and it's hard to reproduce when the customers are clamoring for plate lunch.

185 In a way, we get to have a system like that with our 5th starter spot with Schmidt, Loaiza, and Kershaw.

NPUT!