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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

2007-12-20 18:18
by Jon Weisman

Well, the last place I wanted to end up was on the wrong side of, but there I am (as well as on Bleed Cubbie Blue). No fun being lumped with the lunkheads FJM typically goes after.

Of course, maybe I was asking for this sort of treatment with my approach, but I just wish the critique had been more fair. There's a difference between exaggerating to make a point and just flat out changing what I was saying (as when he discusses the point values of my rating system.)

In general, most of the national feedback has been negative, with people either critiquing individual ratings or the system itself. Some of those criticisms were fair given what I had outlined in the introduction, while others seemed to just ignore that part.

But, I always say, the burden's on the writer to be clear and convincing, not on the reader to be clearly convinced. One thing I might have done differently would have been to document more clearly in the column itself the detailed stats and scouting reports everyone compiled.

I'm still happy with what I set out to do, even if I'm now a category at FJM. I've enjoyed reading the site enough in the past, so it's only fair.

Update: My squad of tireless defenders has e-mailed FJM, and he has updated his post with some kind words. And his point is well taken - whatever my approach, I should have shown my work, especially in a mainstream forum like Lesson for me, and no hard feelings.

Comments (132)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2007-12-20 18:38:48
1.   regfairfield
I'd actually be curious as to how close a real analysis would be to the correct rankings versus your quick and dirty version came up with.

I'd imagine it would be closer than you'd think.

2007-12-20 18:39:43
2.   Bob Timmermann
It's a better critique than Fire Jay Mariotti.
2007-12-20 18:42:28
3.   trainwreck
I am sure they will get a lot of emails about how you are a friend of the sabremetric system.

I think it is cool in a way to get blasted by FJM. Besides, you know you are not like pretty much everyone else they blast on that site.

Maybe you should have thrown in a food metaphor.

2007-12-20 18:44:18
4.   trainwreck
Bob, are you to offering sacrifices to your Mike Belotti statue?

Because I am.

Get it done, Dan!

2007-12-20 18:45:12
5.   Bob Timmermann
Would UCLA have to bring along Mike Belotti's crazy ex-wife?
2007-12-20 18:46:49
6.   Greg Brock
Ken Tremendous certainly got an email from me.
2007-12-20 18:47:36
7.   trainwreck
I did not realize they got divorced. I was hoping we get to see her rip into Joe McDonnell.
2007-12-20 18:48:42
8.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
I think FJM seriously missed the point of your system. If they want to come up with a superior method of quickly judging rotation depth/quality, they should present it; personally, I think their criticism is yet another example of when the unattainable perfect becomes an enemy of the available good.


2007-12-20 18:51:34
9.   overkill94
It's as if I had LAT-ESP...

Definitely the laziest FJM article I've seen them write. He doesn't seem to understand the aim of the article, instead taking potshots at the simplicity of it. Is he trying to say there's some sort of magical formula to calculate a team's depth?

2007-12-20 18:52:05
10.   regfairfield
6 Me too, I always enjoy telling him he's wrong.
2007-12-20 18:56:47
11.   Bob Timmermann
They've been divorced for a while, but in the Oregon media guide Bellotti is pictured with his ex and they are described as "being together."

But it's believed they didn't get remarried.

I think Lute Olson had something to do with it.

2007-12-20 18:58:02
12.   regfairfield
I just got an E-Mail back from Ken and I think a lot of this could have been avoided if you explained what numbers you looked at to arrive at these rankings. I'm pretty sure he thinks you just randomly generated these numbers.
2007-12-20 19:00:30
13.   StolenMonkey86
Simple! Now you just assign the points to their cut-and-dry, indisputable, category-based participants, and you get to see who has the best staff. This system of pitcher evaluation will soon be all a GM needs to evaluate trades, draft choices, or free agent signings.
"Should we pick up Aaron Fultz?"

"Why? Our bullpen is already set, and he's a below-average pitcher."

"Wrong! He technically qualifies as an average pitcher. Two points, not one. This will put our pitching staff at 16 points, and the next best team in our division only has 15."

"Get it done."

I was kind of hoping that he'd at least use Jeff Weaver in the example instead, since he's a starting pitcher. He even quoted the bit about starting rotations. I think FJM got lazy, or just wanted to give Jon a hard time.

I wonder how often they try to rip people that link to them.

2007-12-20 19:02:48
14.   trainwreck
We took the Yankees bullpen catcher!

The championship is guaranteed.

2007-12-20 19:05:42
15.   Bob Timmermann
Here's how the interview went:
"Do you know Scott Proctor?"
"Do you get along with him?"
"Do you think he's ready to go in now?"
"You mean, as in now, December?"
"You're hired!"
2007-12-20 19:07:30
16.   silverwidow
Willie Parker fractured his fibula. He's done for the year.

Also done are the Steelers' chances of making it past the 1st round.

2007-12-20 19:10:06
17.   RIYank
Ken T. added an edit, I think largely in response to DT-readers' emails. Cool.
2007-12-20 19:10:36
18.   Greg Brock
Ken Tremendous updated his post.
2007-12-20 19:10:48
19.   silverwidow
16 *passed (duh)
2007-12-20 19:11:37
20.   overkill94
12 My e-mail was probably fairly redundant then considering I included Jon's statistical requirements in my e-mail as well.

Has FJM ever issued a formal retraction of a whole article?

2007-12-20 19:14:43
21.   Bob Timmermann
You were right the first time.
2007-12-20 19:24:17
22.   Eric Stephen
The Steelers were poised to lose to Jacksonville at home (or San Diego on the road) in the first round anyway.
2007-12-20 19:26:53
23.   FiftyYearDodgerFan
Now I know why I hadn't heard of previously. What a lame crew! Seriously, those folks need to get a life.

Having said that, I have to say that anyone who hates Joe Morgan can't be all bad.

2007-12-20 19:28:41
24.   StolenMonkey86
I sent them an email with the comment numbers for each team's stats.
2007-12-20 19:29:47
25.   Bob Timmermann
FJM is an acquired taste. It's not like you will be shunned for not liking it. It's not like hating peaches. It's more like hating venison.
2007-12-20 19:32:55
26.   Johan
My Canadian friend informed me today that they sell ground horse at the market where she lives near Montreal. I was stunned.
2007-12-20 19:38:56
27.   Dodgers49
Identifying those who have a lot to prove in '08

>> Andruw Jones
There's a widespread perception that Jones posts big numbers against mediocre pitching and disappears against the frontline guys. Just for kicks, we took a spin through some of his individual matchups to see how he fares.

As it turns out, Jones is a career 2-for-13 (.154) against Brandon Webb; 3-for-16 (.188) against Aaron Harang; 7-for-37 (.189) vs. Pedro Martinez; 8-for-45 (.178) against Brett Myers; 3-for-20 (.150) off Carlos Zambrano; and 1-for-15 (.067) vs. Jake Peavy.

But it's not all gloom and doom. Jones wears out Roy Oswalt to the tune of a .538 average (7-for-13), and he has six homers in 45 at-bats against Brad Penny. <<

2007-12-20 19:44:55
28.   Andrew Shimmin
26- Ask her if they sell the heads whole. LAT could swing by and pick one up for Mr. Tremendous.
2007-12-20 20:19:35
29.   Marty
So, you can only have bits of whimsy in the obviously unimportant bloggosphere. MSM areas like SI are much too important. Perhaps SI's seven layers of editors should be fired.

Conlin couldn't have said it better.

2007-12-20 20:20:32
30.   Benjamin Miracord
28 Tremendous! LWTIME. That may be your funniest comment since "Repent or Burn."
2007-12-20 20:42:23
31.   atg12
Yikes! Dodgerthoughts and firejoemorgan are the only two blogs I check daily, and they always existed in two separate worlds. I haven't been this shocked since Helen Hunt appeared in an episode of "Friends".
2007-12-20 20:45:18
32.   Disabled List
Oh man... Two of my favorite websites, DT and FJM, are engaged in battle! Well, not really a battle, more like a duel. Actually, not a duel so much as an exchange... um, maybe askew glances.


2007-12-20 20:47:12
33.   Bob Timmermann
You're killing Independent Jon!
2007-12-20 20:50:00
34.   underdog
28 I believe they sell concrete sneakers next door, too, if he's interested.
2007-12-20 20:56:10
35.   CanuckDodger
30 -- Hey! "Repent Or Burn" was mine. Unless you mean Andrew calling ME "Repent Or Burn," which I kind of liked and have grown to miss.
2007-12-20 21:00:35
36.   Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh
I read FJM's addendum, and I found it rather lame. I honestly don't think I've ever seen as effective a run-down of an entire league's rotations, and that was made possible by all the help various posters gave. And much of that research was based on fundamental stats: ERA+ and peripherals. To say that that column only belonged in a "marginal" media like Baseball Toaster struck me as bizarre and ill-informed.


2007-12-20 21:04:34
37.   Daniel Zappala
But, I always say, the burden's on the writer to be clear and convincing, not on the reader to be clearly convinced. One thing I might have done differently would have been to document more clearly in the column itself the detailed stats and scouting reports everyone compiled.

Jon, you're very gracious. I agree, if you had stated how you derived these ratings from well-accepted stats and were simply making a coarser-grained ranking on staff quality, FJM would have had no basis to complain.

I would be interesting to take your "judgment" on the numbers and translate that into numbers (e.g. three straight years with ERA+ above 120 means super-above-average), but it's still a useful exercise, despite what KT says.

2007-12-20 21:23:08
38.   Xeifrank
FJM must be seriously running out of material if this was the best they could come up with. Jon comes up with 999 gems in a row and then they nail him for this? Perhaps someone needs to start a FFJM blog to keep the checks and balances in tow.
vr, Xei
2007-12-20 21:30:03
39.   Andrew Shimmin
35- You're just saying that because you know it would ruin it for me if you really did like it.
2007-12-20 21:41:05
40.   Lexinthedena
"I know that this kind of off-season article is mostly just goof-off time-wasting before pitchers and catchers report, but goodness gracious."

The same could be said....

I had heard of this blog but never read it until now...seems like a good place for informed fans to cathartically point out the dumbness of the baseball establishment...

I suppose it's a fun thing....

2007-12-20 21:55:06
41.   Vishal
40 they're generally quite hilarious.
2007-12-20 21:56:46
42.   LAT
28. I will gladly do it. Indeed I have a long list of people this holiday season I would like to give a whole horse head to.
2007-12-20 22:00:03
43.   bhsportsguy
I heard Eric Stephen mentioned on this week's LA Times Laker/Dodger podcast. Well, they didn't actually use his name, just said some guy on Dodger Thoughts posted all this information about 4th starters and he realized that depth was real important.

And since I compiled one of the sixteen summaries that Jon used, I take 1/16 of the hit by FJM.

2007-12-20 22:03:37
44.   Eric Stephen
Aside from Gary Bennett re-signing with San Diego for $3.5m (plus $750k in performance incentives), this note is from the San Diego Union-Tribune:

The Padres also agreed to deals with catcher-first baseman Robert Fick and switch-hitting outfielder Jeff DaVanon.

2007-12-20 22:04:38
45.   Eric Stephen
I'm going to have to listen to that at the gym tomorrow morning to properly calibrate my ire.
2007-12-20 22:10:07
46.   Eric Stephen
Upon further review, Fick & Bennett are NRIs to spring training. Not as cool as Gary Burghoff, obviously.
2007-12-20 22:10:40
47.   bhsportsguy
45 It comes way at the end so if you can stand lots of Laker talk and an interview with a USC freshman who has some blog and has seen Mayo play a lot, go for it.

He didn't say anything bad, he just didn't remember your name.

2007-12-20 22:16:01
48.   overkill94
44 46 You must have Bennett on the brain, it was Michael Barrett who re-signed for $3.5M :)
2007-12-20 22:17:11
49.   Vishal
46 and jeff davanon was the other NRI, it appears...
2007-12-20 22:21:26
50.   Eric Stephen
48 ,49
Wow, I was way off! :)

To recap:

1) Michael Barrett signed a major league deal for $3.5m
2) Robert Fick & Jeff Davanon signed minor league deals with invites to spring training.

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2007-12-20 22:27:48
51.   Gen3Blue
Congratulations Jon and the DT community. While I admit to making no direct contribution to the under-lying pitcher study, I see its immense value and bask in its publicity. Its a simple and useful evaluation that can form the basis of an ever improving forecast. It shows the power that can be derived from a widespread network of knowledgable baseball fans when put to work constructively, and I would be most surprised if it didn't disturb a few hack writers.
2007-12-20 22:49:49
52.   LogikReader
You know, today's exchange is an important reminder to read and absorb the whole story before making an opinion on it.

There was a blurb today about a new Billy Joel song that was written last month, and the song seems like a rant, but it really isn't. If you read the article about it, it's a song more in tune with "Goodnight Saigon." I won't post a link for fear of Rule 5.

Anyway the point is, read the entire story and get the facts straight before making judgement. FJM simply misinterpreted Jon's system or perhaps made some assumptions, but I do appreciate that he understand Jon's intent.

2007-12-20 22:51:31
53.   Jason in Canada
Why I read Dodger Thoughts, and sometimes the griddle is because they would never use the word "dude" like that guy. L-A-M-E.
2007-12-20 22:54:18
54.   Jason in Canada
Actually I read "the griddle" as well, even if those picture puzzle rebus things make me feel dumb.
2007-12-20 23:05:22
55.   Bob Timmermann
I live to make Canadians feel stupid. It was an instruction left to me in my mother's will.
2007-12-20 23:07:19
56.   MC Safety
I find Jon getting put on blast pretty haterish.

I thought it was a useful exercise, and the fact you chose to support a worthy cause was the cherry on top for me.

Here's to a hoping a large African bird poops on Ken T's head some day.

2007-12-20 23:12:22
57.   Andrew Shimmin
Time saver.

2007-12-20 23:15:29
58.   MC Safety
57 Up to ten paragraphs!
2007-12-20 23:15:57
59.   Paul Scott
"Should we pick up Aaron Fultz?"

"Why? Our bullpen is already set, and he's a below-average pitcher."

"Wrong! He technically qualifies as an average pitcher. Two points, not one. This will put our pitching staff at 16 points, and the next best team in our division only has 15."

"Get it done."

As usual, if nothing else, the people at FJM made me laugh. As a complete aside, I recently saw Ratatouille and reading FJM tonight reminded me of Peter O'Toole's monologue about critics near the end of the film.

2007-12-21 00:27:50
60.   trainwreck
I sacrificed a Nike T-Shirt to my Mike Bellotti statue. Hopefully, that is enough.
2007-12-21 01:57:52
61.   Greg Brock
I must say, though FJM's de-pantsing of Jon has rattled me (as it has all of yous guys), I don't recall a post from FJM being so quickly updated with a series of caveats, compliments, and qualifiers. Ken Tremendous and the gang have skewered many a sportswriter. Jon has probably received the tamest of FJM posts.

That, in and of itself, is a nice thing. Not as nice as, you know, not being mentioned there, but still. Pretty tender, as FJM de-pantsings go.

And for those of you that don't read FJM, you really should. It's a must read.

2007-12-21 02:11:40
62.   bhsportsguy
Great, both Simers and Plaschke are on board if UCLA hires Bellotti. Simers compares it to Garrett getting lucky with Carroll while Plaschke can't wait to get a football coach more recognizable than a Dodger middle reliever.
2007-12-21 02:16:05
63.   Greg Brock
Dear Jesus, Allah, Vishnu, Zoroaster, the other guy, Yahweh, and other various and sundry deities,

Please let Mike Bellotti be the next coach at UCLA. I promise to do stuff better, and do other stuff not as poorly. I promise to give money to charity, provided said charities take non-paper money. I promise to call my grandmother once a week, despite the fact that she is thoroughly depressing. I will also club fewer baby seals.

Yours in faith,

Gregory DeSean Brockerson III

2007-12-21 02:41:09
64.   bhsportsguy
Remember that "discussion" all the GMs had about needs back in November.

Last year, they were 41 free agent signings for at least $10M/2+ years. 5 of those deals were teams re-signing their old players back.

So far, now beyond a month after the free agent period has started, there has been 17 similar signings with 5 of those again being players resigning with their old clubs.

Part of that could be the lack of talent available (when Carlos Silva is the top pitcher by years and total amount, you have some issues) but it just seems that when A-Rod reupped with the Yankees, the air fell out of the Hot Stove balloon.

Probably Kyle Lohse and Mike Cameron are the top remaining free agents, so for now, the Hot Stove is turned off.

2007-12-21 02:46:00
65.   bhsportsguy
64 And the big markets are paying out money, the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubbies, Dodgers and Angels.

The Mets remain on the sidelines for now.

The Yankees have paid the most to keep A-Rod, Posada, Rivera and Pettite.

2007-12-21 02:48:30
66.   tjshere
28 In this case the other end of the horse might be more appropriate.
2007-12-21 02:51:44
67.   bhsportsguy
The next topic Jon needs to bring to national attention is the overpaying of relief pitchers on the free agent market.
2007-12-21 04:24:03
68.   D4P
First, U.C.L.A. steals our Player of the Year Award: now they're stealing our coach?


2007-12-21 05:46:50
69.   RZG
14 Borzello is Torre's godson.
2007-12-21 06:06:54
70.   Daniel Zappala
63 You think they're going to listen to you when you don't even sign your real name?
2007-12-21 06:08:07
71.   Daniel Zappala
At the risk of offending D4P, isn't Bellotti's success basically due to the offensive coordinators he's hired?
2007-12-21 06:16:25
72.   D4P
Oregon's success seemed to begin mostly back when Bellotti was the offensive coordinator under Rich Brooks. The team has been pretty good on offense ever since he took over as head coach, but they've never been all that good on defense.
2007-12-21 06:46:07
73.   D4P
Questions regarding The Simpsons:

1. Did the intro to the most recent episode really indicate (as it seemed to) that the Springfield in the show is Springfield, IL...?

2. If so, is that a big revelation, or did we already know that...?

2007-12-21 06:56:14
74.   Paul Scott
73 Have not yet seen it, so not sure, but if it so revealed then it would be the first time.
2007-12-21 07:01:51
75.   D4P
I'm surprised, then, that I haven't heard anything about this anywhere.
2007-12-21 07:03:42
76.   Bob Timmermann
The chalkboard sequence at the beginning has Bart writing:
The capital of Montana is not "Hanna"

I don't recall any reference to Illinois.

2007-12-21 07:06:33
77.   D4P
During the couch gag, when they panned out from the couch, they panned out from the Illinois area.
2007-12-21 07:07:02
78.   Bob Timmermann
The "Powers of 10" intro pulls back on the Simpsons sitting on their couch and keeps going back. You could argue that when they get to a "satellite view" that they are in Illinois, but they spot they pick is not Springfield, Illinois. It's closer to Chicago.
2007-12-21 07:09:42
79.   D4P
So: what does that mean?
2007-12-21 07:12:14
80.   Sam DC
This -- linked by Poz -- is the bestest.

I may need to change my handle to Sando.

2007-12-21 07:34:50
81.   Bob Timmermann
If "The Simpsons" Springfield were Springfield, Illinois, it would then have to be compared to the real city.

And I must have missed the gorge when I went to Springfield, Illinois.

2007-12-21 07:35:58
82.   Bob Timmermann
Not if it insists on calling you "Timmerma" and nothing else.
2007-12-21 07:53:16
83.   Eric Stephen
My name is Erão.
2007-12-21 07:55:22
84.   Sam DC
83 Now we're cooking with gas!

(sory Timmerma)

2007-12-21 07:59:02
85.   StolenMonkey86
If I type my name in as Stolen Monkey86, then I get Monkinho Pau.

But is that as good as the Ron Mexico name generator?

2007-12-21 08:00:58
86.   Andrew Shimmin
Public service announcement: If you're going to have an Amazon wish list, go ahead and update it so that the more forgetful of your friends and relatives don't give you the same thing over and over. Sure, it's partly their fault for not remembering, but, come on--you sort of tricked them into it, didn't you?

The more you know!

2007-12-21 08:04:09
87.   Andrew Shimmin
Repent or Burn (using Repentor as the first name) comes back: Repentaldo. Not too shabby.
2007-12-21 08:05:19
88.   Vishal
80 it gave me my last name, ending in "-disco". when i gave it just my first name, it spat out "visherto". i'll admit, i was hoping for "vishaldinho"
2007-12-21 08:05:46
89.   Vishal
88 or maybe "vishaldo" :)
2007-12-21 08:07:23
90.   Eric Stephen
The Dontrelle Willis contract:

2008: $7m
2009: $10m
2010: $12m (would have been first year of free agency)

That seems reasonable enough. He made $6.45m last season, so he probably would have received a higher number than $7m in arbitration this year, even though he put up a 5.17 ERA (83 ERA+).

He's been very durable. Only 6 pitchers in MLB have more IP from 2004-2007. Dontrelle's ERA+ over that span is 108 in 862 IP, just a shade above $126 million man Barry Zito's 107 ERA+ in 859 IP.

2007-12-21 08:08:31
91.   Vishal
86 sure, the amazon wish list is practical, but isn't the nice part of the gift exercise the having to guess what the other person wants or would like? it's like a test of how well you know them.
2007-12-21 08:09:25
92.   Bob Timmermann
You will learn my friend that such guessing gets very tiresome after you hit 30.

Or in my case 25.

2007-12-21 08:14:58
93.   Andrew Shimmin
91- You're exactly right, up to a point. I spent eighteen years living within thirty feet of my sister, but I don't really know her that well. So, rather than guess, or turn every gift-giving event into a way of fixing her taste (I've given up on that, but I did used to try), I've thrown in the towel.

There are people for whom I don't need a list, or an occasion (the other problem with gifts is they shouldn't have deadlines), but for the bulk of the socially obligatory gift giving I do, I'm not too proud for the list.

2007-12-21 08:16:20
94.   old dodger fan
Well Jon, some say, "All publicity is good publicity except your own obituary."
2007-12-21 08:20:18
95.   ibleedbloo
73 They gave away the location in the Simpson Movie. The four states that boarder Springfield are Ohio, Nevada, Maine and Kentucky. That should put all of the questions to rest.
2007-12-21 08:20:42
96.   regfairfield
If Jon had gone with K/BB ratio like FJM suggessted he should have, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Javier Vazquez, Andy Sonnastine, Scott Baker, Josh Towers, Paul Byrd, Dave Bush and Mark Hendrickson all would have been threes or fours.
2007-12-21 08:24:10
97.   Vishal
92 i have very few gift obligations in my life, so it's not like i'm guessing for 10 people. or even 5 people.

actually my folks are on a trip abroad and i'm an only child, so pretty much it's just my girlfriend i have to worry about. and that always requires guesswork anyway.

2007-12-21 08:40:25
98.   D4P
so pretty much it's just my girlfriend i have to worry about

Do you get an employee discount at the airport gift shop...?

2007-12-21 08:45:01
99.   Vishal
98 hah! in fact, i do.
2007-12-21 08:53:56
100.   Andrew Shimmin
Just saw the update to this post. Marge, you were an excellent peace-time chief, but these are times for men of cruelty.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2007-12-21 09:14:50
101.   kngoworld
Was Bronx Banter doing Card Corner before Cardboard Gods arrived at the toaster? It always struck me as a little odd, in a style stealing kind of way. There is definitely enough room for both, as the stories are great, it is just kinda strange, to me, because I am kinda strange.
2007-12-21 09:22:00
102.   Bob Timmermann
Bruce Markusen did Card Corner for a long time at BTF.
2007-12-21 09:32:24
103.   ToyCannon
I'm going dark for the next two weeks so here is a quick Christmas Wish List for some of my Dodger Thought cohorts.
D4P - Some rain, and may you find a place to plant your sword in a geographic area desirable to both of you
Jason/Humma - good health for your new borns
Bhsportsguy, GregBrock, Trainwreck,Bob Timmerman - a UCLA head coach you can be proud of or one you can make fun of. Not sure which one you want.
Vishal - the ability to pick out the right gift
Dzzrat - sunshine
Daniel Zappala - another Italian in Utah
Marty - health for the dog
Andrew Shimmin- better taste in clothes - ( couderoy?) and a Diamondback wild card
Sam DC - a kickbutt new stadium to take your son to and a healthy John Patterson
Eric Stephen - an OPS+ of 810 for Jeff Kent
Regfairfield - Andy Laroche starting at 3rd base on opening day
El Lay Dave - Don't you have it all?
XieFrank - Guo becomes the surprise of 2008 in a good way
Nate - another dancer, one is never enough
Canuck - may Abreu be as good as you say

For the Boss - continued passion for the Dodgers so the rest of us can bask in it.

For the rest of the Dodger Thought Community my biggest hope for you is that Juan Pierre is not wearing Dodger Blue by April 1st, and you and your families all have a safe Holiday season.

2007-12-21 09:35:20
104.   wronghanded
I was a fan of the SP evaluation and admittedly haven't read what FJM wrote about it in response. My only problem with the system was that it seemingly gave too much value to fall-back options. I think maybe durability of the initial starting 5 should have had more value and that maybe super-below average pitchers should have had negative value. ie. If Peavy and Tomko were in the same rotation, they sort of neutralize each other in the sense that you can usually expect a win from Peavy and a loss from Tomko, kind of a one step forward and one step back dilemma. Also if you have an above average fallback option but have a super-durable, Tomko-esque fixture in your rotation, their is a good chance that you won't get to reap the value of that fallback guy. I'm sure that I'll get blasted for this but its just my 2-cents and overall I thought the system was a great way to quickly evaluate rotational value.
2007-12-21 09:39:56
105.   MC Safety
103 I'll take 20 average to above average starts from Schmidt for Christmas.
2007-12-21 09:43:47
106.   D4P
Thanks, TC.

God bless us, every one.

2007-12-21 09:46:59
107.   MC Safety
104 ???
2007-12-21 09:50:48
108.   wronghanded
107 I'm sorry-- sloppy post, what do you need me to clarify?
2007-12-21 09:54:09
109.   Daniel Zappala
Thanks Toy. May you all have the chance to taste some decent homemade lasagna some time in the coming year.
2007-12-21 09:58:47
110.   Greg Brock
103 Merry Christmas
2007-12-21 10:05:21
111.   Eric Stephen
Merry Christmas to you as well, Toy Cannon, and may the Ferndale Wildcats continue to take America by storm.

Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays to the entire Dodger Thoughts crew.

And I hope UCLA gets Bellotti, so LA can have potential top 10 matchups for the next decade or so! Nothing would be better for the rivalry.

2007-12-21 10:13:44
112.   MC Safety
104 Ok, let me try.

1. Jon wanted to reflect on the depth of these rotations, no one uses 5 starters in a season.

2. Jake Peavy can lose, and Brett Tomko can win.

3. I dont understand the last part about Tomko being super durable and the above average fall back guy not being able to reap benefits. So Tomko is so durable he can block better pitchers?

I dont get the overall message.

2007-12-21 10:35:45
113.   Sam DC
Thanks TC and yes, merry happy, healthy and all that to everyone here.

It's been a long, weird year for me, and my friends here have really me through. So thanks.

-- Sam

2007-12-21 10:46:59
114.   Kevin P
"Blasted" or not, Jon- I come bearing good news. I asked, and I received. My girlfriend and I exchanged Christmas gifts last night because she is off to New York and Maryland tonight to visit family and friends. I got a few things that will be very useful. However, the one that I consider most cherished and brought the biggest smile to my face is the DODGER THOUGHTS book. Beautiful work, my friend. Thank you for taking the time to put it together. I greatly appreciate it. (And the Ross Porter foreword gave me chills)
2007-12-21 10:48:44
115.   Jim Hitchcock
85 From now on I will be known as `Hank South Pole'.
2007-12-21 10:48:59
116.   madmac
111 Uh no, Bellotti needs to stay right where he is. I just can't see him leaving anyway. He's turned down USC, Notre Dame etc. in the past. I believe the NFL had even expressed interest. Eugene is just that nice of place to live.

Merry Christmas TC and everyone else here. Thanks to all of you for waisting so much of my time ;)

2007-12-21 10:49:02
117.   bhsportsguy
103 Merry Christmas to all and for particular DTers, I send these regards:
Jon: Thanks for the site, it is so much more than just a place to talk baseball.
Bob: Next year, cherry pie!
ToyC: Healthy bodies for the Clippers.
Nate and Canuck: An infield of Loney, Abreu, Hu and LaRoche to start a meaningful game in 2008.
GregB: The opportunity to proudly go back to Rose Bowl.
Trainwreck: Kevin Love, Pac-10 Player of the Year.
To all new fathers: The best holiday season ever, and bedtime stories of how the mighty Kirk Gibson did not strike out.
Eric Stephen: Witnessing the Dodgers winning a game at PetCo.
Sam DC: Good parking at the new ballpark.

All the best to the DT community, I think we have a lot to look forward to in 2008 but through it all, the Blue and White still tugs at the heart and nothing is better than hearing Vin start off the season with another "Hi Everybody!"

2007-12-21 10:53:05
118.   Kevin P
And Merry Christmas to everyone in the DT. May this next year bring large bundles of joy for all. I love this site and look forward to posting more often in the New Year.
2007-12-21 11:05:15
119.   wronghanded
112 I could be way off base with what I said but I'll try to make it more clear.

1. While no one uses 5 starters in a season some teams will obviously have to rely on depth more than others. I guess a good reference would be that you can usually pencil in Jake Peavy and Roy Oswalt for 200+ IPs of ace-like performance where as a player like Ben Sheets will put up ace-like numbers but remains a huge risk to make 30+ starts. So shouldn't Peavy and Oswalt be rated higher than Sheets based on the fact that they will probably give your team a better overall performance? If not, shouldn't somebody like Rich Harden also get a 4? Depth matters less with a rotation of more durable starters right?

2. Agree, Peavy can lose and Tomko can win but when you combine their records at the end of the year (assuming they both stay healthy all year), wouldn't the expected winning percentage be around .500? Shouldn't Tomko's negative value take away from Peavy's positive value? I don't see how a zero really reflects poor pitching, it just kind of chalks it up as neutral. Again that was a hypothetical situation, I know Peavy and Tomko won't both be fixtures in the Pads rotation next season.

3. I think I worded that one wrong, if you have a stud prospect like Kershaw but a super-durable, below-average pitcher in your rotation doesn't the prospects value diminish because he's blocked by dead-weight? Another good example I found was Tampa Bay, they get 5 points from the up and coming department and while some of them may get significant time in the bigs, I don't really see all of them contributing to the big-club in '08 (I could be wrong). Should their collective value outweight Kazmir who is clearly Tampa's ace and needed for them to compete?

Again I could be way off base and but those are honestly the flaws that I saw in the points system.

2007-12-21 11:06:04
120.   underdog
103 Nice, Toy! I share that general wish, too, as well as many of the other specific ones (including your wish for Reg).

"Is there anything sadder than homeless robots at Xmas? Only drowning puppies, and there would have to be a lot of them." - Amy on Futurama

2007-12-21 11:07:58
121.   underdog
Another thing that makes me sad - discovering that one of my favorite football players has written a novel that sounds absolutely horrible (though it did get a favorable review from well-known literary critic Tony Dungy). Jason Elam, I know you're a kicker and have a lot of free time on your hands, but... geesh.
2007-12-21 11:08:22
122.   Marty
Thanks TC, I hope the Clippers can give you a nice gift by starting to win.

Merry Christmas to everyone, particularly the ones who gave during the Weisman's Kids charity drive:

Kevin Lewis
Hubert Hsu
Ben Blakley
Eric L

I really hope I didn't miss anyone. Thanks again.

2007-12-21 11:09:27
123.   Marty
Oh, I also got a contribution from a lurker in my office (you know who you are). So I'll be forwarding that soon too.
2007-12-21 11:11:32
124.   Bob Timmermann
But it's only December 21. We have plenty of time to wish people Merry Christmas and ask for gifts.

And yet no one has thought of a sextant as the ideal gift for me.

2007-12-21 11:12:48
125.   Marty
I hope the Bellotti talks pan out. It would be great to see UCLA and USC fighting over number 1 again as they did in the Sixties.
2007-12-21 11:17:22
126.   Jon Weisman
Thanks for all the holiday wishes - they were really great.

Don't drink and drive.

New post up top.

2007-12-21 11:17:32
127.   D4P
I didn't realize people thought so highly of Bellotti. I think most Duck fans feel like the team has never quite reached its potential under his leadership. They're 4-6 in bowl games, and will presumably be 4-7 after this season.
2007-12-21 11:21:07
128.   MC Safety
I would like to send a Happy Holidays to Jon and everyone who contributes. Ive just barely scratched the surface of the wonderful archives of this great site too.

From pointers to pizza places in Blackhawk, Colorado to free tickets from Toycannon. Being Me and Ed's brothers with CanuckDodger. Marty, just talking about Arthur Lee and Love. Trainwreck being a Pete and Pete fan. Eekrock, who works at my hometown record store I frequent weekly. Bob for referencing "No Time". I cant put into words how awesome this place is. Thanks guys.

I have become very proficient with Google as well.

2007-12-21 11:23:48
129.   underdog
124 What about an alethiometer? (a golden compass)

Sigh, I wish I hadn't been so broke the last few months, or I would've contributed more to the sites and causes I love. Next year fersure!

2007-12-21 11:28:20
130.   El Lay Dave
103 Don't you have it all?

LOL, not nearly, but I do seem to have everything I need - what more could I ask for? (I am accepting applications for anyone who would volunteer to take over my mortgage payments, college tuition payments, etc., etc.

2007-12-21 14:00:17
131.   Andrew Shimmin
30 - Deadthreading for a minute to thank you for that. I should have done it yesterday, but I get anxious when people pay attention to me. Plus, it's been awhile since the Repent or Die business, so, what? I haven't been funny in the last sixteen months?
2007-12-21 14:46:50
132.   Benjamin Miracord
131 At the risk of causing you discomfort by paying attention to you . . . .

You're welcome.

Look at the bright side. Sixteen months is not that long to be unfunny. And now, you've clearly broken the dry spell. :-)

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