To #63 in the last thread: I believe the answers are yes and yes.

On the Hanley Ramirez subject, would you trade him straight up for Josh Beckett right now?

The only guys I wouldn't trade for Hanley are Pujols and maybe David Wright.

1. So, Santana had a no-trade clause?
vr, Xei

So we're down to 38 on the roster, correct? I smell another Colletti depth-signing in the air . . .

to a comment on the last thread... boston having beckett seemed to have worked out, he is the best post season pitcher of our genreation and a top 5 pitcher in the AL, again marquee pitchers don't grow on trees

1 And some more info gathered this morning indicates that he had a no-trade clause, wanted to be on the east coast, wanted to train in Florida so he would be closer to Venezuela and he told the Twins that he would use his no-trade clause if he was not traded before ST.

Add that to the fact that he wanted to get an extension too, (in the range of 6 years 140+ million), you have a pretty small market of teams to deal with.

marquee pitchers don't grow on trees

They get drafted out of Texas high schools...just like Kershaw.

5 Well they do grow somewhere, last time I checked Brad Penny won some games in the post-season too as did Derek Lowe.

No one disputes that Santana is a great pitcher, I looked at some stats the other night and if he continues to pitch like he has done so far, statiscally, he will be among the very best pitchers of all-time, at least in the last 30-40 years. (However, he does not even have 100 career wins yet so lets not put him in the HOF already)

Saying that, based on everything I have read, there was no way, Santana was going to ok a deal to a west coast team so its a moot point.

I think Bob should rename the Griddle to "There Will Be Bob".

2 Hanley should get a short lease in Florida since he will be arbitration eligible after 2008.

10 Another perfectly valid reason to contract the franchise.

beckett is 6-0 with a 1.73 era in the post season, um boston will much rather have beckett than hanley. in boston it's about winning championships and beckett has been the best post season player in the last 20 years

9
There's a whole ocean of rebus puzzles underneath my feet. And I only can get at them!

12 in boston it's about winning championships"

zero for 87 > 2 for 4.

12 Would you trade Hanley for Carlos Beltran: 1.302 post season OPS?

How about Troy Glaus: 1.246 for him?

Heck John Rocker has a post season ERA of 0, give him a call.

pitching > offense

15 To be fair, the question should be would you trade Beckett for some of these guys, at least that what I think the question should be in his eyes.

MLB4U says that, since Santana didn't finish in the top 3 for the CYA last year, his absolute no-trade clause would have expired at the beginning of the 2008 season. He'd still have had a limited one, allowing him to pick 12 teams to which he could not be traded.

http://www.mlb4u.com/profile.php?id=942

16. Who wins a 0-0 game?
vr, Xei

well if boston doesn't make that trade they don't win the world series next year, i think they'll take beckett

18. I think giving players a no-trade clause is in bad judgement. That being said do any Dodger players have a NTC?
vr, Xei

5 best post season pitcher of our generation
12 best post season player in the last 20 years

I was wondering what you meant by "our generation," and then you cleared it up. But then, "pitcher" became "player," so I'm confused again.

So let's go with just the least hyperbolic formulation from the above, which would be "best post-season pitcher in the last 20 yrs."

First, is that true? Anyone want to offer another candidate?

Second, is that enough to value him so highly? The post-season is short and uncertain (I won't say "crapshoot" because I don't believe that).

In general, I esteem elite hitters more than elite pitchers. Dominating one game in 5 is not necessarily better than having a chance to win every game. Just ask Steve Carlton.

12 You make it sound like a team can't win a World Series unless they have a "marquee pitcher."

Every player has value. Every position contributes to winning. And you make it sound like there's a huge insurmountable difference in value between a "marquee pitcher" and the rest of the population of baseball players (including theoretical "marquee hitters"). And that's not necessarily the case.

When you say, "our generation" you must mean "your generation" because in "my generation" it was Koufax.

22 he is the best post season player in the last 20 years, he has won 2 world series and has 6 post season wins and has 82 k's in 72.67 career post season innings has dominated more than any player

19 The Bears.

There's absolutely nothing that makes someone a special post season performer. If you give a guy enough post season at bats, his performance will eventually end up looking a lot like his regular season numbers. When you start working in small sample sizes, anyone can be a hero, and thus we get things like people saying they'd rather have Scott Broscious in the playoffs than A-Rod.

Post-season John Smoltz:
207IP 194K 2.65ERA

Who invited Plaschke?

16 pitching > offense

That's a mathematical falsehood. One team's offense is pitted against another team's pitching plus defense. So if defense matters at all, pitching must matter less than offense (in terms of contributing to wins).

What you really mean has to do with marginal improvements in one versus the other, but that requires assumptions about the state of pitching and offense on a team and on its competition, and cannot be covered with a general law.

So sometimes it might be true that a marginal improvement (by marginal I don't mean "small," but in the mathematical sense of "relative to the status quo") in pitching is worth more than a marginal improvement in offense, but that's team- and circumstance specific. For the Dodgers, it's pretty clear that losing a top offensive talent would hurt more than gaining a top pitcher would help. For the Mets, with offense to burn and pitching concerns, the opposite is true.

22 If mark, mike, ted, brian, kyle, brett br, brett bi and jared say Beckett is the best postseason player in the last 20 years, then who am I to argue against it?

26
Hey batta batta batta, suh-wing batta!

pitching > offense

Tell that to the '03 Dodgers.

27. True dat. Jeter is the poster-child for this. For years, he was "Mr. October, the sequel." But the Yankees played so many playoff games, that once his sample size increased, his playoff #s look just like his regular season #s. Which are good, but evidence that, on average, he isn't better in October.

31 good point

32 Translation: The game is up. Your (rule 1 violation) is mine.

johan santana is better than estaban loaiza

I wonder how many palate cleansing NPUTs Jon has stored up.

37 I think everybody would agree with you there.

Funny, 'cause as great as Beckett was last year, that trade was being called a bust by many a Bostonian the year before. Not saying that Beckett won't be great again this year, but for a year at least, given how clearly good the young players were that the Red Sox gave up to the Marlins, there were a lot of people questioning it.

Hi, Perbole. How's it going?

39 ok just wanted to make sure that everyone wasn't just out to disagree with everything i say

37 The Dodgers have plenty of guys that are better than Esteban Loaiza. Don't need to destroy the Dodgers' foundation for that.

37

No one will argue with that

29 Now,now then

Joe Sheehan (no not that one, the guy who writes for BP), ends his summary of the deal by saying teams have never bought in on the idea of trading one really good prospect for a pitcher like Santana, say Jay Bruce, Adam Jones or Matt Kemp.

Somehow they fall into quanity rather than quality in most cases.

Of course, no one knows if Santana would have signed off on those deals but I think the point is, with one really good prospect, you have an idea of what you are getting, when you start having to put packages together, you end up having to make lots of projections.

37 Going out on a limb there, eh? ;-) Not sure what is gained by comparing a borderline #5 starter with a #1 starter, since they are not competing on the same plain or for the same role, but yes, Santana is better than Loiaza.

41 I disagree with that.

Okay, I need lunch.

Mariano Rivera blows Beckett out of the water as the best postseason pitcher of the last 20 years. Or, for that matter, the last 120.

41
No. Just the comments you back up with hyperbole, cliche, your buddies' names and Vegas odds.

Bring your opinions, back them up with facts, chill out on the defensiveness and we'll continue to have a good conversation.

29 don't understand the plaschke reference, don't read him at all. please explain

If it keeps getting fed such a gluttonous diet, pretty soon it won't be able to fit under the bridge.

getting mocked like 31 , and maybe 29 not sure yet. getting mocked by numourus people will raise your level of defensivness

41 Again, its not really disagreeing, I do think that I tend to try and think about the possible rather than just speculate and the Santana trade just seemed like so much speculation, especially when you toss out the names like Kershaw and Kemp for Santana.

If the Dodgers were not going to deal them (and others) for more years and probably less money for Miguel Cabrara, who had no say in where he went, why would they do it for one year (plus a whole lot more money) for a starting pitcher, as great as he might be.

Also, its true, that folks here have long waited to see a lot of these guys wear Dodger Blue and it looks like it will happen this year but I do think given the right deal, almost anyone is tradeable. There just hasn't been that deal presented yet.

41 - No one's out to disagree with you, and it concerns me that you still might think that. In fact, many of us are agreeing with most of what you're saying: Santana is valuable. Are you seeing that?

The only real disagreement is over how much one would give up to get him, and in the end, it's kind of a splitting hairs conversation. You would give up a little more for him than most others here would. It's not a big deal.

I do feel that some of the comments are getting a little snide - maybe that's coming out of a feeling that we're going around in circles, but I'd ask everyone to watch the sarcasm.

50 It was a low blow and shouldn't have been said. Good for you for not reading Plaschke. Don't ever start and you'll be much happier in life.

He was comparing you to Plaschke. And that's just low.

and i'll back up boston would rather have beckett than hanley with a fact....

they have a world series ring with him, wouldn't have won it last year without him

48 I thought about that too though, he has not been the same since the bottom of the 9th at Arizona in 2001.

56 Well you can't say they wouldn't have won without him. Who knows what they would have done without him. Maybe Hanley would have gone all Beltran in the playoffs. Or better. Who can say that?

56 Part of the problem you're having is that (as in the last phrase of your post) you tend to call your opinions "facts."

Anybody remember Blue Moon Odom? A decent pitcher (career ERA 3.70) with a great name and had 42 post season innings with a 1.07 ERA and 6-0 W-L record. Does that make him the best post-season pitcher of the 70's?

Rivera's postseason record since the 9th inning at Arizona:

2-0, 38.3 IP, 20 H, 3 BB, 10 SV, 0.70 ERA.

58 ok how about this, there is a very strong possibility boston doesn't win a world series without beckett

48 I'm not sure Rivera blows Beckett out of the water.

Rivera: 8-1, 0.77 ERA, 93/16 K/BB, 72 hits in 117 IP.
Beckett: 6-2, 1.73 ERA, 82/14 K/BB, 40 hits in 72 IP.

Mo might be the best postseason pitcher ever, but Beckett's in the photo.

51. I wish we could have continued in our Wal-Mart, predatory pricing discussion of yesterday.

63 beckett is 6-0 and yet to face failure yet in the post season, rivera is 17-9

In 1968, Bob Gibson and Denny McClain, who both won that year's Cy Young Award met in the World Series.

Bob Gibson, along with Sandy Koufax, was the most dominant pitcher in 1960's especially in the World Series (which is all they played until the following year).

The Tigers won that World Series in 7 games but not because of Denny McClain, Mickey Lolich, a good pitcher, won 3 games including game 7 against the best pitcher in baseball, Bob Gibson.

64
Well, you made a really good point that I hadn't thought of. I have no reason to believe that WalMart does (or doesn't) raise their prices if/when they successfully squelch the competition by setting their prices "too" low.

Pitcher wins and losses are hardly a good metric for measuring how good a pitcher is.

62
Boston won the 2004 World Series without Beckett. If you meant just last year, then you're very likely correct.
52
And yes, I broke Rule 7 (and/or 2 and 3) in 29 . I apologize.

68 i agree, i was just pointing out the mistake made in the previous comment

65 No, Beckett is 6-2 and Rivera is 8-1. You're referring to their teams' respective series records, but I do not give credit to team achievements when evaluating individual merits.

62 Better, but still disputable. Boston swept the World Series. Beckett won one game. Even without him, they've got a 3-0 lead.

They made the playoffs in a cakewalk, and would have still made it easily without him.

They swept the Division Series. So even without Beckett they've got a 2-0 advantage.

So essentially, your entire argument rests on two games. The two games Beckett pitched in the ALCS. Would a different pitcher have been able to win the two games Beckett won -- in which the Sox provided 10 runs and 7 runs of support? Probably, yes.

In fact, the way things turned out, Josh Beckett contributed a lot to the Sox last year, but pretty much none of his contributions were strictly necessary. They would have very likely won without him.

So is all that worth Hanley Ramirez's career?

Just to shore up my Bob Gibson comment,

Bob Gibson started 9 games in 3 World Series, he went 7-2 with a 1.89 ERA, he pitched 81 innings with 8 complete games gave up only 55 hits and 92K/17BB ratio. The Cardinals won the first two series before losing the aforementioned 7th game to Detroit in 1968.

71 oh ya you're right, i thought 9 loses for rivera was really suprising

72 if you told me we're trading matt kemp for a player who will be a huge contributing part for a world series in the next 2 years and maybe another in the future... sign me up

72 Based on that, the only way you could make a case for Beckett is that if they had Hanley, maybe their defense becomes so bad that they allow way more runs in the other games.

It's a bit of a reach, I realize.

72
Yes, because when the deal was made not even Hanleys biggest backers thought he would have this kind of success. It has turned out to be a great deal for both teams.

75 Seriously, why do you want to get rid of Matt Kemp so badly?

77 True, but all this came up when he said he'd trade Hanley for Beckett right now.

75 "if you told me we're trading matt kemp for a player who will be a huge contributing part for a world series ... sign me up"

But nobody's telling you that. You have no way of knowing. You're making the trade based on a hope and a prayer of winning the World Series, not a guarantee of doing so. Even in a rare case like Beckett where his team DOES end up winning the World Series, they didn't do it because of him.

The odds of such a trade actually making the difference in a WS championship are so low you need a microscope to measure them.

78 i don't i think he's going to be awesome, i'd trade him for bedard straight up that's all i'm saying.

On another topic, its January 30th, 2 weeks away from pitchers and catchers, and aside from his appearance when at his press conference, a return appearance during the last day of the mini-camp and going to China, Joe Torre is making a very slow transition into being the new Dodger manager.

He is not scheduled at any of the Dodger Caravan events and right after that he goes with the rest of team to Florida.

I just find that very interesting for someone with as much cache as Joe Torre that the only time you see him in LA is on billboards or Prime Ticket commercials.

81 Two years of Bedard for five years of Kemp makes no sense.

75 That's perfectly fine. But nobody will ever be in that situation ever. Nobody knows the future. We all live with uncertainty. You talk like you think getting a marquee pitcher all but guarantees us a world series victory.

For the Dodgers, trading Kemp for a marquee pitcher means we're weakening our offense considerably, and that may end up hurting us more than helping us.

78 I think it's more of a matter of getting a marquee pitcher for more than what most anybody else would be willing to give up.

i guess i'm just not making my points clear enough, if you told boston fans that proposition 2 years ago they'd say for sure they'd do that. that's the only point i was trying to make in 75 .

i love matt kemp i think he's going to be a star

What really happened. Houlton: "We resigned Ramon? That's it, I'm out of here."

81 Okay. So the next question is, who don't you think he will be awesome? And what are you expecting from him?

Somebody shoulda told him it was the other Ramon.

and i believe this is the highest matt kemps value will ever be.

87 should have a "why" and not a "who."

81
It does if he's right and Kemp is not awesome. He might be right, we don't have anything written in stone that Matt Kemp is going to be a star. The difference seems to be that most of us think he will be while he thinks he won't be. Good honest difference of opinion.
Cargill06 while exasperating has bought some interesting flavor to January.

87 sorry i'm a little slow don't understand the question

90 ,91 sorry my punctuation screwed me there 78 asked why i wanted to get rid of kemp so badly i meant to put...

i dont, i think kemp will be awesome

84 I think it's more of a matter of getting a marquee pitcher for more than what most anybody else would be willing to give up.

I get that. But the Dodgers could still trade more than most would be willing to give up and not include Kemp. This default of "let's trade Kemp for Bedard or Santana or (insert ace here)" is old and tired.

i think kemp will be awesome

Which is why he should not be traded. End of discussion.

I'll just repost 87 with the correction I made in 90 :

Okay. So the next question is, why don't you think he will be awesome? And what are you expecting from him in 2008 and in the future?

93 Oh okay. Punctuation is underrated. So is using the shift key.

In light of that, nevermind the first question in 96 .

94 i agree, and i apologize. i just wanted to think what people thought about trying to aquire bedard and should've made my point and than moved on

67. Honestly, I was just desperately trying to stir up another conversation. The current discussion is rapidly reaching a level of loathing that can only be matched by my loathing for CBS.

Okay, people, let's focus on the really important stuff: D.J. Houlton is gone!!

100 I've been in denial for the last 100 posts. He didn't get too fair a shake. I thought he deserved a couple spot starts last year.

99
I hear ya. There's nothing particularly unique, interesting, or impressive about intentionally taking the opposing view in an effort to rile people up and attract attention.

I think we should've offered Houlton for Santana.

100 With that level of excitement, shouldn't it read more like this:

Okay, people, let's focus on the really important stuff: Mark Hendrickson is gone!!

I have high hopes that the Houlton-Kuroda trade will work out for both sides.

86 I thought Houlton Heard a Hu would be a good title for this posting, but, well, okay, Hu has nothing to do with it at all but I like really bad puns.

104 Hooray!

98
Careful man. The inner nerd circle appears to be mutating into an octagon!

I think you should change your screen name to "Pearl Harbor" because of all the Kamikaze posters that are hitting you like the Arizona.

It isn't worth the energy arguing with most of these nimrods. Trust me, it's why I rarely post here anymore.

107 Can I be Nimrod #1 of the Inner Nerd Circle?

It was all worth it! It didn't seem possible, but it was. I only hope the punchline doesn't disappear too soon.

107 That was uncalled for.

Sorry that distinction belongs to Andrew Shinmin or whatever his name is. :)

102 it's what i honestly believe. i don't like to argue espically with no supports it's no fun but i'm just saying what i believe, i thought we had moved on however.

Nimrod Nation is an awesome show.

111 I really do take offense at that. That was uncalled for.

112 We think you're just not looking at the entire picture. That's all.

107 ha ya it does seem like whoever their leader is has molded their minds to agree with each other, and not share any differing opinons.

107 Charlatan, perhaps, blowhard, at times, but nimrod, never.

115 I take offense at that, too.

Hmm. The second episode of "Breaking Bad" didn't censor the "s" word, but it censors the "f" word.

Seems like you'd either censor both or neither.

Okay enough of this. I'm going to go enjoy some freshly squeezed orange juice now.

Can Jon end this stuff now? It's really childish and annoying.

117 sorry don't mean to offend. i'm probably wrong, it just does seem like that you guys are the democrats of dodger baseball and all have very similar mind sets (hope that doesn't violate rule #5)

Would any of you members of the USS Nimrod care to answer my critical question from previous thread: Is the size of the Statue of Liberty's head as small as it seems in "Cloverfield"?

And never mind all that! A new interview with Russell Martin has appeared on the Montreal Canadiens(!) web site, check it out:
http://canadiens.nhl.com/fanzone/CANADIENS_magazine/lastword22_3.htm

like i said i just wanted to move on. and like i've said before you guys all seem very intelligent and i value all your opinons but it doesn't seem very deverse it seems like for the most part you guys all share the same point of views

i hope i don't come off like i'm complaining, other than being mocked i really really enjoy these conversations

107 I don't know about "offensive," but it was historically inaccurate. The Japanese didn't use any kamikaze attacks at Pearl Harbor. Those only started at the very end of the war, when they apparently had more expendable planes (and pilots) than fuel.

Cargill, all I ask is that you go back and read some posts and threads from this blog beyond just the couple of weeks you've been reading it. You're making sweeping generalizations about: the blog; the posters; and our thought processes. If you can take the time to read some archved posts, you can get a better sense of the incredible diversity here. We all share a love of the Dodgers, and most also have a keen sense of humor. After that, it's a pretty unique lot, frankly.

115 -- We disagree quite often, though I don't think there are as many disagreements as there used to be. Sometimes people here change their minds, show evolution in their way of thinking. I still remember when Jon thought the Dodgers were virtually throwing away draft picks by drafting high school players like James Loney and Chad Billingsley, back in 2002 and 2003.

126 like a said i'm probably wrong, but just judging on the few weeks i've been here. i'll take your word on it

107 , 115 These two posts ruined what was an otherwise energizing discussion. This board is moderated and is somewhat self-policing, as I think both of you are about to find out.

Cargill: you offered opinions, debated others who engaged you on it, and ceded points when you saw the logic. Nobody had, or should have had, any problem with that up until you got personal. Too bad you had to blow it.

I, for one, have to admit it's theoretically possible that I was hympo-tized by Bill James in 1988.

I don't remember it. But then I wouldn't, would I?

118
It looks like AMC is taking a page from the FX and Comedy Central rules book. Do you happen to know if you can find uncensored episodes on line anywhere?
I read a synopsis of the first episode, I believe on Wikipedia, and it was talking about things that happened in the episode that never were shown on screen. So I got to wondering if maybe they have unedited/uncut episodes available somewhere.

118 I was watching Dane Cook on Comedy Central over the weekend and the only word they bleeped was the F word. Everything else went.

Hah. Did anyone catch this in that Canadiens.com Martin interview?

>>In a Vanity Fair article Shia LaBoeuf, the star of Transformers and the next Indiana Jones mentioned that she had one of your autographed jerseys, that you were her favorite player and that you were going to be a superstar. Quite the compliment, isn't it? What's it like to have your very own Hollywood groupies?

This is the first I've heard of it. It's really funny that in a town full of stars I can have my own fans. It really hasn't sunk in yet.<<

Mr. Shia LaBoeuf must not be very big in Canada.

Remember when Blue Tahoe used to say similar things, and then we'd argue with him and then he'd go all Sean Young on us? That was awesome.

115 I think if you stick around here awhile, which I hope you do, you will see a lot of differing opinions.
Some people think Brad Penny is terrific and should be extended, some think he's seen his best days.
Some think Juan Pierre is the worst player ever, some have defended him as a very good player, some think moving him to 8th in the batting order makes him average and some think making him the 4th OFer gives us one of the best 4th OFers around.
Some liked Grady, some didn't.
Some liked Gonzo, including me until he opened his mouth, some didn't.
People here are Dodger fans and tend to be optimistic about our young players but we love to debate what they are worth. We obviously think more of them than the average non-Dodger fan.
This group is pretty knowledgable about stats and expects you to back up your arguement with numbers. If you do, they will listen. They might not agree with you but they will tell you why. If you just says you don't think someone is very good you won't persuade anyone.
Jon has some rules that some people don't like. It's his site so he gets to do what he wants. Most of us, including me, like them.
Sorry for the length of this but don't for a minute think you have to agree with everyone here. You just have to support your opinions.
I hope you stick with us.

122. Not until you somehow justify enjoying Cloverfield. I can't believe that everyone is all over this other guy when you have made by far the most controversial and wrong-headed claim of the day.

121. I'd say that it probably does violate Rule #5, claiming that one party is the only one that doesn't allow different viewpoints is definately partisan.

131 In the first episode of Breaking Bad there's a scene with a bare-breasted woman and they blur it out. A friend told me she watched a repeat of the episode and the woman was wearing a bra in that one. Anyone else notice that?

129 i'm truely sorry if it got personal, after the 107 thread was made there were many jokes made, i thought that it was all in good fun. like i said before i think people on this site enjoyed the conversation and expressing their opinons except for it going on too long (which i agree with) and other than me being mocked and personal attacks by myself it was rather enjoyable to me.

i say we just put it all behind us. nothing personal.

118
I was struck by the same thing. Seems weird to allow one but not the other.

137
The one I watched had the blur.

138 Fine by me.

124. Cargill, it's great that you have a good sense of humor about it. I think that only part of what you're running into here is that your opinions are not shared by most who frequent the place. Another part is that some of the disagreements have a long history at DT, and old-timers have hashed them over and over and over and over, so now we just tend to jump right to the end of previous discussions. It looks like everyone agrees, but (1) that wasn't always true - past debates really were two-sided, and (2) you can't read the comments that don't get written. I think on some of these old issues, there is some self-censorship by folks who know from experience that their opinion is in the minority, and they just don't feel like banging their heads against the wall again. That said, it's wrong (because it's impolite) for anyone ever to say anything like "end of debate" or "case closed." Unless it's Jon. He gets to say "NPUT."

Yet another part, however, is the reason Jon has Rule 12.

I think the quality of the conversation around here is so good because most of us have learned to be careful in our assertions of what is fact and what is opinion, and about what is prediction, backed by logic and reasoning, and what is pure speculation. There's nothing wrong with opinion and speculation, as long as the commenter does not advertise it as something else. And, often, formulating something as a question, as opposed to a declarative statement, helps to make the responses more measured.

It's great having you here stirring the pot. Keep at it. Don't worry about it if few agree with you.

139. It's just the slow creeping of swear words. It used to be that only the D-word was allowed and you couldn't say the B, A, S, or F words. Then B followed quickly by A, but without the hole. It's been a while but maybe it's loosening again.

138. Most people didn't like you because of your name. Half of the people on this board are employees at ADM.

I for one am all in favor of the slow creeping of swear words. As long as the FCC's out of it, what exactly is the difference between Comedy Central and HBO anyway?

82 I just find that very interesting for someone with as much cache as Joe Torre that the only time you see him in LA is on billboards or Prime Ticket commercials.

You did that just to annoy me, didn't you?

https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/901414.html#31

136 I take it you didn't like Cloverfield? Heh.

I don't think it's the greatest film ever, or the greatest monster movie ever (which I saw a couple of critics claim), but for what it was, I thought it was very well done. And most importantly, in the moment, while I watched it, I was properly gripped and scared. I rolled my eyes a few times, and thought a few of the actors were a bit bland - but I liked both cameraman/friend "Hud" and Marlena (anyone recognize her from Mean Girls?). It's not as good in my mind as "The Host," but in some ways quite a bit scarier. That's all I got. Am I still wrong-headed and controversial?

146 I forgot.

Next time you turn on your ipod, remember life the way it used to be.

http://tinyurl.com/2rb43s

144 don't know what that means...

142 a number that a lot of people put stock into is OPS+ and ERA+, i don't buy those. OPS+ you get penalized as a hitter if you have a lot of good hitters in your line-up or if your pitching staff is bad. It is a good tool for the most part but can also give a false number. same with ERA+ it is a good tool for the most part, but you can be penalized if the rest of the pitching staff is good.

148- I wonder if D4P will blame Qtrax. You can't get more predatory than free.

147. Frankly, I didn't see the movie, I was just hoping to start another tangent. Most of the reviewers I like thought it was pretty bad, unless you really like monster movies of which I'm not a big fan. Of course, given the fact that the last movie I saw in a theatre that was not intended for children under 12 was "The Price of Milk" in 2001, I'm probably not the best person to have this conversation.

144 - I don't understand that comment either, and at best it's a violation of rule 7, coming after several other rules violations by other commenters.

I mean, how am I supposed to react to all the mudslinging that was going on here while I was at lunch?

Chazmac, whatever your opinion of this site is, the site has rules. I don't care what you think of me or the people here, but if you post here, I would request that you follow the rules. If you don't think it's worth your time, then I wish you the best.

I'm not going to ban anyone today because there were too many rule violations to count. But please, everyone, treat each other with respect.

150
Not true; they could pay us to take the stuff.

Where do I sign up to be exploited?

ADM and Cargill are two huge American agribusinesses. It's like if a commenter named Ford had been told that he wasn't liked because everybody else on the board worked for Chevy.

I chuckled, anyway.

136
Yeah, Cloverfield was a nice little movie that tried to do something a little different. Of course, the big deal with that movie is really the great viral marketing campaign they used to promote it.

It also has all that hidden information scattered throughout the tubes.

152. It was a play on Cargill being corporate rivals with Archer Daniels Midland, sorry for ag company humor joke.

148 Tower Records was the place that I got records back in the 80s. I loved being able to find imports there. I didn't frequent the one on the Sunset Strip too much, but there was one across the street from where I worked as a teenager. I'll miss the excitement of looking through bins of LPs, seeing if you could find something new or hard-to-get.

156 - I think the point is that when you start a comment with "Most people don't like you ..." and address it to a poster who is worried that everyone is against him, the joke isn't going to justify the comment.

123 I interrupt my late lunch to say: shine on you crazy golden god!

133 You beat us to it!
http://tinyurl.com/3y87ae (SFW)

I nominate 144 for most misunderstood joke of the year.

From a Dodger press release:

Janet Clayton, an award-winning journalist and former executive at the Los Angeles Times, will become the first President of ThinkCure.

160 Wasn't it the interviewer and not Russell who made the mistake? Maybe Russell thought it would be weird to correct the interviewer or something.

144
I understood it. If there's anything Sunday morning panel shows have taught me, it's the names of big agribusiness concerns.

162 Hmmm...very interesting. That will make them the second employer she's ever had.

148 Oddly enough, the article you linked uses "cachet" correctly:

"The Sunset Strip is an international landmark, and this building has an historic cachet."

165 So she's had jobs at the two places that Bob sent applications to but never heard anything.

A new name to add to Bob's list.

127 - That's a great example of me being sure I'm right about something and then being wrong.

Of course, there was also this hunch:

https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/012427.html

149 "a number that a lot of people put stock into is OPS+ and ERA+, i don't buy those. OPS+ you get penalized as a hitter if you have a lot of good hitters in your line-up or if your pitching staff is bad. It is a good tool for the most part but can also give a false number. same with ERA+ it is a good tool for the most part, but you can be penalized if the rest of the pitching staff is good."

This is 100% false. A player's OPS+ or ERA+ is completely unrelated to, and independent of, his teammates' performance. (Well, ERA+ is dependent on your team to exactly the same extent that ERA is, but for now, baby steps. We'll deal with DIPS later.)

Perhaps you were thinking of wins and RBI. Those are the stats that are most dependent on teammates' performance.

Before you decide you "don't buy" a stat, you should probably first know what the stat actually is, and what it purports to tell us. A complicated definition of OPS+ can be found here...
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/bat_glossary.shtml

...but in layman's terms, it's just on-base and slugging percentage combined, adjusted so that all players in the league can be evaluated on a level playing field. (i.e., it adjusts for your home park's offensive environment.)

ERA+ is the same. It's just ERA on a level playing field.

166 I always thought that building was nothing more than a warehouse filled with LPs, later CDs.

My first recollection of Tower Records was the store in Westwood, later became familiar with the one on Sunset.

I always liked going there, even if I didn't buy much, you could spend an hour just going through all the stuff.

160 163 Neat, thanks! Yep, it was definitely the interviewer, not Russell - I did wonder why he didn't correct them, but maybe he was indeed just being polite. Maybe "Shia" is a girl's name up there in Quebec. Fun interview otherwise, though.

155 It was light years better than Blair Witch Project, I will say that much.

--

Jon, you forgot to say, "I'll turn this blog around right now if you kids don't behave!" with a stern look on your face.

170 I'm not necessarily agreeing that it has historical cachet, just that the term was as least used properly.

The great thing about Tower Records was that I could go to the little one in Brea (Orange County) and still find cool stuff. The bigger stores in Westwood or on the strip were meccas.

I will take Rasputin over Tower any day.

I hated Tower Records back when I was buying records. Could never find stuff I was interested in. My favorite record store was PooBah's in Pasadena. GoBoy records in Redondo Beach was pretty good too.

171 - It's true, though. I will.

cargill is my middle name, not a reference to anything else.

169 if you're hitting in a great line-up and your pitching stinks wouldn't your parks average obp and slg be skewed a little bit becuase of those talent factors? what i'm trying to say is for example if the tigers played at petco wouldn't technically the ops+ recognize petco as a "hitter's park"

man, there have been a lot of rules broken today. it's almost like a rick neuheisel recruiting visit on this site today.

176 - No. That's not how park factors are determined.

177
Who's playing the part of Jerramy Stevens?

178 i thought the lgOBP and lgSLG is determined by the leagues OBP and leagues slugging at that park?

171 Russell's response was humble, politic and gender-neutral. He's quite the smoothie.

176 No, park factors are weighted by looking at how teams perform at your park versus how they perform elsewhere. A park that hosts a team that scores 6 runs at home and six runs on the road would have the same park factor as one that scores three runs at home and three on the road.

122 I thought her head looked way too small when I saw the flick. Maybe the Statue had a run-in with that witch doctor from the end of Beetlejuice?

175 Jon, do you also drive a Dodge Stratus? :)

176
Talk about killing an image. I expected you were a car geek, covered in grime and spitting into a spittoon while you added some horsepower to your El Camino.

I've never met or heard of a Cargill, is it a combo of maiden names or name. Is your Mom named Caroline and your Dad Gilliam or is their an ethnic factor involved or did your family work at one of the many Cargill companies which evidently according to google inhabit these united states?

Or it could simply be none of my business.

182 oh ok, well than i guess era+ and ops+ does seem meaningful, and makes more sense.

185 my father and grandfathers middle name, not sure of how it originate.

188 That's pretty nifty. Far more interesting than my middle name.

I hate my middlename

190
McFly...?

I love my middle name.

173 I am currently wearing my streetlight records tshirt. When I was going to college in Santa Clara it was the best place on earth. The one in Santa Cruz is also right next to bus stop so that was always my destination once I headed over the 17 to visit friends.

I have two middle names.

John for my grandfather and Lewis because I am the son of a Mason.

189 er?

192 I'll trade you

191 McFly would be cool

195 Hm?

You gotta love this from the Martin interview:

*Do you really have a chance to rest during the off-season? Can you relax for a while with spring training opening in February?

Some players take a month or two off after the season to rest up but I don't. Two weeks after the end of the season I was in the gym, working out to keep in shape and working on the areas of my game that I have to improve upon.*

My middle name is Boyd. Pretty boring. It means "fair-haired child" I was very blond back in the day

I go by my middle name.

Speaking of Marty McFly: I enjoyed the most recent episode of "The Simpsons". And, since I watched "Back to the Future" for the first time in a very long time just a few weeks ago, I "got" the joke when Kurt Cobain's cousin calls Kurt to have him listen to Sadgasm's new sound.

A friend of mine in high school had the best middle name ever: Zoltan.

200

I just sold the Back to the Future Trilogy on half, and I am currently selling all my Simpsons seasons

175 I know, and deservedly so! Especially when people are acting a bit childish.

183 Hah. Maybe. Though I did look it up finally, and the Statue's head measures: Head from chin to cranium 17 ft 3 in 5.26 m
Head thickness from ear to ear 10 ft 0 in 3.05 m so maybe they weren't too far off after all.

201

That reminds be of the movie "Big"

I know it is the wrong name, but it is close, I think

202
How much?

200
Loved that episode.

197 fan er man.

Sorry, bad joke :(

202
What is "half"?

205
Me too. I thought it was great. I guess we've arrived at the stage when we can wax nostalgic about the 90s.

206 That actually beats 144 for most incomprehensible joke of the day.

Made me laugh twice. The 1st time when you wrote it and the 2nd time when he didn't get it.

208 er...okay, you're probably right.

201 Did he have people going up to him and saying, "I just want to be Big"?

If it can be the last name of a beer, it can certainly be someone's middle name.

Oy, I was sure late on that one.

We had a person retire today after 35 years. It was weird, she had all these people saying nice things about her who had also worked 35 years. Most of these people had only for worked for this one company since they were 18-19. I would think that is very rare these days.

201 That's the stuff of legend.

206 Oh.... uh, okay.

208 That got a laugh out of me.

209 I guess it's an easier joke to get if you don't know what my name is. If there was a red-cheeked emoticon on the Toaster, I'd type it here: .

Strangely enough, my middle name is Archerdanielsmidland.

199 My brother went by his middle name.

maybe ned will sign odalis perez after losing houlton... i love that guy

sorry for violating rule #7

D.J. Houlton's middle name is ...

Joseph?
James?
John?
Jeremiah?
Jared?
Jonathan?
Jeffrey?
Jose?

If you said Sean, you made the right call.

I prefer the verb Odalis we use to use to the human one.

Boy, Ortiz really Odalised that game.

All right, the Odalis fan club is up to two members now.

Just found an interesting interview with Paul Depodesta that took place early this month for Beyond the Box Score. it was probably posted here at some point but I thought I'd send the link in case anybody else missed it.

http://tinyurl.com/2b4m8k

218 Whew, you had me for a second. ;-)

I did love Odalis, for about 5 months, I think.

220 How aboot as a noun?

Wow, Wells must eat like an Odalis.

My father went by his middle name. And then he dropped that and went by his nickname, which was not related to his first or middle names.

The statue of liberty's head is apparently 17 x 10.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statue_of_liberty

224
It's better as "Wells really Odalised that whole pizza, didn't he?"

OK so now I'm really confused about park factors. Does OPS+ and ERA+ get changed by park factors on a yearly basis or are park factors adjusted marginally on an ongoing basis? Seems to me that if you have a terrible pitching staff in a pitcher's park, the factors might be skewed in a misleading direction, conversely if you have 5 Johan's tossing in Houston it may seem like your opponents are hitting in Yellowstone. Can anybody further clarify this one?

205

I still have season 5 and 6 listed for $15 each

207

Sorry, half.com

I believe the Decemberists covered this issue in their song "Odalisque":

as the light dies horribly
on a fire escape you walk
all rare and resolved to drop

and when they find you
they will rend you terribly
stitch from stitch til all
your linen and limbs will fall

Odalis reminds me of Lima time. Even as decent as Lima was in 2004 can anyone remember a more improbable LA Dodger game then the shutout Lima pitched in the 2004 playoffs for the only Dodger playoff victory in 20 years? I was there and I still don't know how he did it considering how crappy a pitcher he is. It was his only complete game all year. The Dodgers only had two all year. It was against the powerhouse Cardinals when Rolen and Edmunds were in their prime. It was awesome. Someone should write a chapter about it.

228 Actually calculating park factor is a really nasty task, but it doesn't effect it.

Here's the explination
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/parkadjust.shtml

223 - I loved Odalis a lot longer than that.

227 It does work much better that way. Now everyone at work wants to know what's so funny.

231 I was not a Lima fan, but I loved shouting his name at that game.

I thought Odalis had a pretty good run as a "good" pitcher with the Dodgers.

236 Okay he had a couple good years. Gosh he's only 30.

So, I have never read Moneyball. Do I need to get that read ASAP?

Old news, now you need to read Shrunken Balls by Clemens.

wow

Hmm, maybe I did love Odalis longer than that - 2 years perhaps? Or at least liked him. I was afraid of his pending implosion, too, though, afraid he'd turn into a Dominican Terry Forster.

You don't need to read it, but it is a fun book. Funny, too, like all his others.

238 You probably know the gist of it by now from other baseball sources, though it is worth a read.

241- Odalis was so good his first year in L.A, I thought we had the second coming of Tom Glavine...after his second year I still believed in him...then a girl I grew up with was dating one of the Dodgers and told me of Odalis' partying habits and bad attitude, and before I could even think about his weight gain being a problem, he started to suck....

Has anyone here here read David Maraniss' book about Roberto Clemente? I finished it on the plane last night, and was really moved.

244 Dating which one?

246- Was traded to the A's along with a tempermental and talented local product...

Way to go Antonio Perez!

I was at the St Louis game when Odalis imploded big time in 2005. That was a rough game to be at.

247 248 So this was 2004?

I just don't care for soft-tossing lefties like Odalis Perez, Carlos Perez, Eric Stults (even though he has done well), Mark Hendrickson, David Wells, etc other than a "in his prime" Tom Glavine. The only reason I liked Glavine in his prime was because he got every outside/inside call known to man. His location was so good that he got the call even if the ball was off the plate. Come to think of it, I don't like soft-tossing lefties or righties not named Greg Maddux or Tom Glavine. I really enjoy power pitchers regardless of their tendency to have TJ surgery.

Carlos Perez?

238 I always thought "Moneyball" was the prerequisite to Dodger Thoughts.

Oops. Never mind. I was thinking of Oliver.

249 - If that was the 13 inning affair then i was there too and got one of the worst sun burns of my life. I remember ledee hit a 3 run shot to tie it up in the 8th and in the 9th bases were loaded with 1 out and Olmedo at the plate, double play, gah!

Before Matt Kemp and the trash can, there was Carlos Perez and the gatorade cooler.

I don't think of Odalis as a soft-tosser, not when he was good, anyway.

256 - It would make more sense if those were analogous. Somehow, Carlos lifting the cooler and moving it doesn't seem it would have that much impact.

256
Don't forget Milton Bradley and a his batting gloves, helmet, bag of balls, plastic beer bottle, and anything else in reach?

258 I went a different direction.

258 They mainly both involve Dodgers and fairly large round cylindrical objects (though the trash can could have been of any shape as I never saw it). And when I originally heard of a Matt Kemp incident with a trash can, and the "media frenzy" that followed, the first thing that came to mind was what Carlos Perez did to his gatorade cooler. Then I found out all he did was pick it up and move it. But even now when I think of one incident, I think of the other.

If you don't like your middle name, you can always change it. Or change your first name. Or any other of your names. It's perfectly legal to do this.

When I got married, my wife and I both adopted her maiden name as our second middle name. We liked this better than hyphenating. It is a bit hard for some companies to deal with, since they're not accustomed to two middle names, but otherwise it's been nice. We have given our kids two middle names (one is the same maiden name we both carry), and are curious to see if they'll do the same and push a third name onto the stack. Maybe many generations from now our descendants will have 10 middle names.

I have never read Moneyball. Does that disqualify me for inner-circleness?

The trash can I have in my apartment is more rectangular prismed in shape. Though when I picture a trash can, I think of the metal cylindrical thing that Oscar the Grouch lives in. On second thought, it seems more likely that the trash can that Matt Kemp picked up and moved was plastic and rectangular prismed in shape. I couldn't picture the Oscar-the-Grouch-variety inside of a clubhouse or locker room.

263- Depends. What did you have for lunch?

265 A sandwich and a salad. Not sure how this is here nor there.

266

The correct answer was "orange juice"

255

Nope, the game I went to I think we lost by 11 in St. Louis. I was the only Dodger fan in my group, and it was painful

Shrunken Balls
By Roger Clemens...

Hah!

266- The inner circle eats people. Nerdily. So, you're half way there.

269
Hey, Daniel doesn't eat peop...Oh, never mind.

I live in Sydney (Australia) and am keen to go to spring training in 2009. What can people tell me about where the new Dodger facility will be and where to get information on where to stay etc.?

Does anyone have any input on why we were able to sell Valdez's contract but appear to be giving Houlton away?

1/30/08 Released RHP D.J. Houlton so he may play in Japan.

1/8/08 Released INF Wilson Valdez. His contract was sold to the Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization.

257. I was thinking of Odalis Perez NOW where he can't get it up much past 88-90mph. Even Stults can get it up to about 91mph but that is not really much of a hit and miss type of pitcher unless location is exact.

I did have orange juice for breakfast this morning. With extra pulp.

Is anyone else going to Vero for Opening Day against the Braves? If so, I'll be there!

271
The Dodgers will be training in Goodyear, Arizona in 2009. It's a suburb of Phoenix (to the west). There will be a LOT of people filling up local hotels at the time.

Book early. Say hi to the nice people from Chicago.

The Dodgers's home stadium for Cactus league games this year is Phoenix Municipal Stadium, but they're building a new one, for next year, in Glendale, Arizona (just outside of Phoenix). I have no hotel recommendations, but I would advise that, whatever you do, you not get on the I17 North during rush hour.

Goodyear, not Glendale?

Goodyear = Dodgers
Glendale = Fiesta and Super Bowl. And having to watch the Arizona Cardinals.

Actually Andrew was right. I could delete my erroneous comment, but I will wear it as a badge of shame.

I'm rending my garments as I speak.

It's still west of Phoenix.

280
I believe some self-flagellation is also in order.

The Indians new park is going to be in Goodyear.

281
I'm stopping at the hairshirt store on the way home.

I wear a large, extra tall.

283
Make sure you have enough honey to go with the locusts.

YES!!! Finally semi caught up on DT. Notes:

Jimmy Rollins was not an all star in 2007 before winning the MVP award.

The discussion of the Dodger rotation a couple threads back seemed to leave out Derek Lowe, is he not healthy and still under contract for 08?

Now that the baseball M-Cab has been safely traded to Detroit (and I am writing a story about these guys), who knew there is a real life MCAB? www.mcab.org (yes, safe for work)

and

one of the word jumbles in our newspaper today was the letters THEIRE. Have I been reading DT too much if the first real word I can come up with is a certain outfielder's name?

1/30/2008 Bob is wrong. I've saved this page for my scrapbook.

Daniel scrapbooks...?

allow me to elaborate on a few things I've observed from the Dominican series finals today:

Furcal made a bone head error just now. That's all I have.

I wish I got ESPN Deportes. Is the Serie Del Caribe still on Fox Sports en Espanol this year, or did ESPND get the rights to that, too? I went looking for the answer to that a couple days ago, but my Spanish is mucho malo.

The game isn't even live, I'll go hide now.

289
A year or so ago, I messed around with some free software called "SOP Cast" that got a lot of different sports channels, including (I think) ESPN Deportes.

When I had Time Warner, ESPND & FoxSports en Espnaol shared the rights but now that I have Dish I don't know how it works. I didn't know Dish carried ESPND so that is a pleasant surprise, I just found out a few days ago, WOO!

291 there is also the TVU player that gets it sometimes.

http://www.tvunetworks.com/

289 I watched the Serie Del Caribe on Fox Sports during the super bowl last year, but Im not sure what the status is this time around.

Checked the ESPND schedule, and they've got the Serie Del Caribe this year. Blast it all.

I seem to remember someone (I think it was XeiFrank) saying they had access to a baseball simulator. Has anyone run seasons to see the estimated impact of Pierre vs. Ethier in Left?

Man, you guys talk too much. Can't a guy take a three hour nap and not have to sift through hundreds of comments?

It's not that hard to estimate. Ethier is about a 15 VORP corner outfielder, Pierre is right around replacement level, so that's a 15 run difference. Ethier was amazing in right last year, and Pierre was a bit above average in center, so that should be close to a wash. So, 1.5 to 2 win difference off the top of my head, less if Ethier's defense was a fluke.

298
I know that VORP takes into account stolen bases and speed, but most old school baseball folks seem to think it underestimates baserunning value. I'm curious how it would play out in a simulation.

I think if a repeated simulation showed that the difference was 1.5 to 2 wins on average, that would be pretty good support for VORP as a stat.

From some comments a few days ago (with #'s to back it up) I think Ethier was the better player.

You hanging in there Enders?

Can we get a ruling on Kansas State bob?

Seems pretty reasonable, did I hear right that they haven't beaten Kansas in 25 years, and to do it when Kansas was a #2.

I'd trade both Pierre and Ethier along with Loaiza and LaRoche for Eric Chavez and Joe Blanton. Only because I think Delwyn Young will be fine and there's still FA's like Shannon Stewart/Kevin Mench as options. If only the A's would take that but I doubt Pierre and Loaiza (whom we got from the A's) would interest them in the least.

Apparently, James Eastern Heathman went by his middle name.

http://tinyurl.com/3axftz

303 - I think if you threw in, say, $30 million with that deal, Oakland might listen.

Oops -- "Easter" Heathman, not "Eastern"

Is 15 runs a year worth me getting upset about all the time? If yes, that's fair I will continue to do so...

307 Ask me if we lose the division by one game.

Yeah I know. Maybe it's best to utilize the roster by trading Ethier then. At least we can get something for him that can help make up those 15 runs.

I guess I just will have to see it to belive that JP if wearing blue won't be playing 162, no matter what is being said. I feel it's more likely he plays 162 games than 161.

305. If I were Oakland, I still wouldn't listen. LaRoche and Ethier are the only 2 worth anything in that trade IMO. Then again, money talks in Oakland!

They'd be inhereting 43 million worth of bad contract, and getting one guy that probably won't play much of a part in the next good Oakland team. They wouldn't do the trade.

We would be looking nice if we could snag this trade from OAK. Get on it Ned!

TRADE: OAK/LAD
Dodgers Get: P Joe Blanton, 3B Eric Chavez
Athletics Get: P Esteban Loaiza, P Jonathan Meloan, OF Andre Ethier,
3B Andy LaRoche, OF Juan Pierre + $25M

SS Rafael Furcal
C Russell Martin
1B James Loney
CF Andruw Jones
2B Jeff Kent
3B Eric Chavez
RF Matt Kemp
LF Delwyn Young

OF Jason Repko
OF FA (Brad Wilkerson/Shannon Stewart/Trot Nixon/Kevin Mench type)
IF Tony Abreu
IF Nomar Garciaparra
C Gary Bennett

SP: Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Joe Blanton, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda
RP: Takashi Saito, Jonathan Broxton, Scott Proctor, Jason Schmidt,
Hong-Chih Kuo, Mike Myers, Joe Beimel

ESPN is using an interview by Paul Splitorff with the K State coach.

I didn't realize he was so versatile.

Why in the world would we give up LaRoche to get Chavez?

314 Because we get rid of Pierre.

I hate me some Juan Pierre, but I do not want to give up talent just to get rid of him.

Brian, what is the point of suggesting trades that you yourself agree are one-sided and would never happen?

287 I don't really scrapbook. Unless you count this:

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/427

I know no one cares about my fake Dodgers, but I might as well suggest some kind of plausible trade. Ethier, Broxton, and Beimel for Nick Markakis. Good trade?

319
Most definitely.

Does Markakis platoon with Pierre, or with Kemp?

That trade works, not only because it is great for the Dodgers, but because the Orioles would be dumb enough to ask for two relievers in return.

321 Fortunately in my fantasy world Pierre is a Padre.

Another ho hum night for LeBron.

I'm afraid I agree that practically speaking Ethier should be traded as he is a bonafide ML outfielder who won't be played enough. But realistically( as opposed to practically?) we wouldn't get what he is worth. A few people have recently noticed -as I have-that it is almost impossible to keep up with the comments here, and this is probably due to several things. 1) Jon runs a great site, 2) the D's are on a long term upswing, and 3) after a long winter, people are bored and incredibly ready for B-Ball.

I am going to be optimistic and assume Ethier will get his full time shot next year and Juan will be gone.

I don't know about Eric Chavez's injury history, but the last few years he has been making LaRoche look powerful, and if he keeps going, he will make Nomar look powerful.

I didn't intend 317 in a mean way, by the way. Sorry if it came across that way.

319 Not bad if Nick could replace Pierre. But trading Broxton makes me uneasy.

302 This result didn't really surprise me. I had just read a nice write-up on K-State's Beasley a couple of weeks ago in my January 14, 2008 copy of Sports Illustrated and I thought they might be capable of pulling this off.

B-Easy Does It

>> Living up to his nickname, fun-loving Kansas State forward Michael Beasley is coolly tearing through his freshman season and putting his boisterous past behind him <<

http://tinyurl.com/2sab4k

Back-to-back really good episodes of "In Treatment."

296. Yes, I have a self-written baseball simulator. I use 2008 ZIPS projections and post results at DodgerSims blog. I can run a sim with Ethier and then one with Pierre in LF and see the difference. I will run something and post it shortly. Stay tuned!
vr, Xei

332- Does your simulator take account of base running?

333. it takes into account speed as it relates to base stealing success, likeliehood of taking extra bases, scoring from 2nd on a single etc...
vr, Xei

334- How do you get that from ZIPs?

I just used the simulator to do a NL West bullpen study. I had each team play 2500 games against each other home/road and started the game in the top of the 7th inning with the score tied and each team with a fresh bullpen and the starter got pulled from each team to start the 7th inning. vr, Xei

335. I don't get the speed from ZIPS. I have to look at each players stats/history.
vr, Xei

331 - I did another In Treatment blog post at Season Pass.

http://weblogs.variety.com/season_pass/

I have this vague notion of trying to become the guy who blogged all of the episodes. I just don't know why I would want to be that guy.

We'll be blogging Lost tomorrow night over there.

Nice story about the discovery of Johan Santana.

Scout Listens to His Instincts, Not to His Boss, and Uncovers a Star

http://tinyurl.com/27jbt7

OK, as the A's fan here, I'll just say that the Chavez-LaRoche idea makes no sense from either team's perspective.

1. The A's goal right now is to accumulate as much young talent as possible. If the A's trade Chavez and Blanton, they're going to expect a combined four to six prospects in return. And they can probably get it, too, so why settle for just one or two?

2. Eric Chavez had three surgeries this offseason (each shoulder + back). If they trade him now, they're selling low. The A's are probably better off waiting until he has proven he is healthy again and restored his trade value before they ship him off. They can get a lot more in return for the 130 OPS+, gold glove third baseman he used to be before he got hurt than for the gimpy 100 OPS+ guy he's been the last two years.

3. LaRoche and Chavez project to be almost exactly the same batter in 2008. ZiPS says:

LaRoche: .256/.343/.431
Chavez: .259/.341/.453

A little more power from Chavez, plus a better glove, but they're so close; why would the Dodgers want the injured, more expensive guy?

4. I said this before here, the A's don't want Ethier, unless they could flip him to someone who did. He's a two-year vet now, and the A's want players with zero or near-zero service time. Plus, they have young corner outfielders coming out of their ears. They need CF, SS and 2B talent, and pitching is always welcome.

Just saw the best performance by a rookie at Staples since Lamar Odom went for 30 on his opening night. For months I've been hearing how Al Thornton reminded people of Dominic Wilkins, tonight was the 1st time that I understood the comparison. The fact he did it against the Hawks was even better. Of course he was in the hospital yesterday.
I don't really care if the Clips win just as long as they are entertaining. Tonight they did both for the 1st time in a long while playing without Kaman, Maggette, Brand, and Livingston.

341
The ROY race is pretty open right now. If Thornton goes off from here on out, he could win.

Lots of bad words. And a picture of a man with a camel.

http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/01/honestly-one-of-weirdest-things-i-have.html

319
Good trade for us, bad trade for the Orioles. They have a new GM and he is not going to trade his best player for 2 relief pitchers. So far he's done a decent job and if the haul for Bedard actually goes down he's done a great job.

This whole winter has been fascinating. You have a great pitcher with a 3 year deal get dealt for 5 prospects, none who have smelled the major leagues, several with high ceiling but no for sure guys. You have the best pitcher in baseball on a one year deal get dealt for 4 prospects, two who have played in the big leagues but not much with some ceiling but all 4 could easily fail to ever impact a big league roster. Then you have Bedard on a two year deal who looks like he might bring in more then either Haren or Johan in that Adam Jones is the best prospect in all the deals.
And we weren't players in any of these talks even though our real prospects(not Kemp, Loney) are better then NY, Seattle, or Arizona. We purchased our pitcher from Japan.
I think we did the right thing.

342
He couldn't even make the rookie all-star game, I don't think he has any chance for the ROY award. In fact brilliant Mike will probably play him 20 minutes in the next game.

341
I sure hope Chavez comes back. Used to be big fan of his and he could be the key to your revival. If he comes back, Billy should be able to parlay him into some real prospects, if he doesn't then you have a huge hole at 3rd with a huge contract you can't move.
Is it just his health that is his problem, his whole game seems to have deteriorated?

346 He has clearly, obviously been playing hurt. If the A's had had a decent backup third baseman in 2006, or if they hadn't been in a pennant race all year, he would have spent half the year on the DL. He tried to rehab without surgery after the 2006 season, but the same old problems came back in 2007. So after this year, he finally went and had the surgeries to fix it all.

Excluding deferred money, Pujols will only make $13 million this year. If there's a bigger bargain in baseball, I'm not aware of it.

Ok, I ran some simulations... one with Pierre in LF and one with Ethier in LF. In the one with Pierre in LF, I batted him 2nd which is where he'd most likely bat if starting. In the one starting Ethier, I batted him 7th. I played 2500 games with the Padres playing the Dodgers (home team) with Peavy pitching against Penny.

With Pierre starting in LF the Dodgers winning percentage was .5096

With Ethier starting in LF the Dodgers winning percentage was .5296

The difference is .02 which over 162 game season is a difference of 3.24 wins.

The standard error for a 2500 game sample size is .01 or 1.62 games.

vr, Xei

338
Did anyone watch tonight's repeat of last seasons finale of Lost. The running dialogue on the bottom of the screen was great. It was an awsome recap and we even learned a few new things. I can not wait for tomorrow night.

349 In the NL west in the last six seasons it's 4-2. So four times it's the difference between first (and playoffs for sure) and 2nd place. Just those 3.2 wins.

Jon, this is hardly news, but you know you've caught on when a January post about DJ Houlton moving to Japan attracts 350+ comments in about half a day. Good lord -- I hope the servers are ready for opening day...

344 My main concern is that it guts our bullpen. Right now, the virtual Dodgers bullpen depth goes Saito, Dotel, Proctor, Wickman. If Meloan doesn't pan out and Saito ages, we're left with nothing but middle relievers as soon as 2009. That's really scary.

328. There was no real point other than the whole Pierre/Ethier stuff everyone keeps pointing out so I was saying I would get rid of both if it could net me a good SP and a decent power bat somewhere. I rarely review my post before I hit the button but after further review I noticed that it was horrible.

As for the trade involving Meloan + money I figured it was more plausable but would likely require Elbert or McDonald in it as well for the A's to even look at it.

Oh and no offense was taken. I love this site and you are always fair to everyone and if someone does/says something that doesn't make sense (like I did) then it's fine by me if you point it out.

349
Thanks.

Wow. I just discovered the "VHI Classic" channel. I like it.

I've seen Guns n' Roses, Dire Straits, and now Bananarama. This is fantastic.

Ugh. David Bowie's "China Girl". What a weird looking dude.

Some seriously bad hair in that Tommy Tutone video.

Ah, Janie's Got a Gun.

This VH1 Classic is based on a brilliant and innovative concept: music television that actually plays music.

This could really catch on...!

That "You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet" video featuring Bachman-Turner Overdrive was probably the worst thing I've ever seen in my life.

I may never recover.

Sad and repulsive. Even more reason not to eat meat.

The video shows Hallmark Meat Packing Co. workers administering repeated electric shocks to downed cows -- animals that are too sick, weak or otherwise unable to stand on their own. Workers are seen kicking cows, jabbing them near their eyes, ramming them with a forklift and shooting high-intensity water up their noses in an effort to force them to their feet for slaughter.

http://tinyurl.com/3c7xun

349 Great work, Xei. That sounds pretty solid statistically, and I bet some of the improvement is due to not having JP bat second. I'm curious if your simulator takes account of extra bases taken on outfielders, and defense in general.

319 - Why would we trade a guy with a career batting line of .295/.357/.464 (108 OPS+) with two other players for a guy with a career batting line of .296/.357/.469 (114 OPS+)? Will Markakis be that much better than Ethier over the course of 4 years?

If the Bedard trade works, why not trade Pierre with money for Jay Payton?

7 in a row for D4P!

365
I'm the man.

364
Pecota might answer that in a few days. I would expect the future of Markakis will be quite a bit brighter then Ethier. OPS+ of 121 in his age 23 season. Markakis OPS+ headed up after his age 22 season, Ethier's OPS+ went down from 113 to 103.
Markakis is exactly what you want in a RF, Ethier is what you settle for when you don't have a Markakis.

yes, more possible trade takes to talk about... i'm not being sarcastic either

312 pierre would be gone which is nice, other than that really don't like that trade very much. giving up an awful lot for a #2 starter at best and a declining 3B who's never been a great OBP guy

363. I don't have much of a defense related algorithm built in, as I am finding it difficult to model such one. There are so many defensive related metrics and all of them seem to have some built in flaws (zone ratings etc...) and there isn't even much agreement within the sabermetric community on which defensive metric is the best. But I would think outfield arm strength would be one of the easier ones to add in. So feel free to dock Pierre a little more than the 3.24 for his noodle arm. :)
vr, Xei

I watched about half an hour of the Lost episode this morning. I am loving the text at the bottom. They are cracking jokes left and right. I really love these writers. Too bad the show may get lost in the strike. (pun intended)

367
ToyCannon, I tried to post on TrueBlue, but my computer is wonky and gives me an error when I try to post. I would be interested in three tix. Is there an email that I can get from you?

RRRGGHHH...My brother and I are having a discussion on how good Alfonso Soriano is, and I need some BABIP numbers (He thinks he is a top 10 player, and so far I have found 18 positional players I would rather have).

Where is the best place to get these? For the life of me I can't find them on BaseballReference.com.

NPUT